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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa’s Tories drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons

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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    All except those for genuinely in need through no fault of their own. So:
    - no child benefit (why should the state subsidise people's children)
    - no tax credits (which are handouts, why should the state subsidise people's children)


    That's a good start - we could reduce IT to 10% flat rate then!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    Schards said:

    I think the make up of the audience will be one of the main stories of this debate

    The losers always moan about the audience I bet. It is loving Corbyn and Caroline, but the Tories would be better off not attacking the audience - for one I bet Corbyn will be seen as the 'winner' of any post debate poll, so they need to focus on content of Rudd's comments, not arguing how badly it was received by the audience on the night.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017
    Amber Rudd has just attacked the audience: "Jeremy Corbyn, supported perhaps by the people here...trying to create confusion". Well nobody made you come, dear.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Sit in garden or watch shit debate.

    Garden wins.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,587
    Cyan said:

    Amber Rudd has just attacked the audience: "Jeremy Corbyn, supported perhaps by the people here...trying to create confusion".

    Lol. I don't think that was the point.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Jonathan said:

    Sit in garden or watch shit debate.

    Garden wins.

    Watch out fro Labour's Garden Tax!
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    IanB2 said:

    Cyan said:

    Amber Rudd has just attacked the audience: "Jeremy Corbyn, supported perhaps by the people here...trying to create confusion".

    Lol. I don't think that was the point.
    Yeah she might have been talking about the other leftie politicians
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    LucyJones said:

    LucyJones said:

    Finding it increasingly hard to believe the audience is actually representative of the voting public in terms of party support/leavers versus remainers.

    Maybe YouGov is right, the Tories are not as popular as they think...
    Quite possibly. But no way are 52% of the audience erstwhile Leavers.

    Cambridge was 75 per cent Remain.

    This is in the heart of the University part of town, which was probably 90 per cent Remain (it is the Labour voting wards in the East of Cambridge that were for Leave).
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    handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    Loved Corbyn's Paxo impression just then! Very pleasantly surprised by Tim Farron's performance also.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Farron you * the Brexit debate is over now!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,587
    Get to the point Tim
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Rudd is getting brutalised.
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,959
    IanB2 said:

    Get to the point Tim

    God yes.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    LucyJones said:

    LucyJones said:

    Finding it increasingly hard to believe the audience is actually representative of the voting public in terms of party support/leavers versus remainers.

    Maybe YouGov is right, the Tories are not as popular as they think...
    Quite possibly. But no way are 52% of the audience erstwhile Leavers.

    Cambridge was 75 per cent Remain.

    This is in the heart of the University part of town, which was probably 90 per cent Remain (it is the Labour voting wards in the East of Cambridge that were for Leave).
    The audience was supposed to be balanced.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Poor Tim.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    IanB2 said:

    Cyan said:

    Amber Rudd has just attacked the audience: "Jeremy Corbyn, supported perhaps by the people here...trying to create confusion".

    Lol. I don't think that was the point.
    Did she mean the others on the platform? I only had the audio.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,587

    LucyJones said:

    LucyJones said:

    Finding it increasingly hard to believe the audience is actually representative of the voting public in terms of party support/leavers versus remainers.

    Maybe YouGov is right, the Tories are not as popular as they think...
    Quite possibly. But no way are 52% of the audience erstwhile Leavers.

    Cambridge was 75 per cent Remain.

    This is in the heart of the University part of town, which was probably 90 per cent Remain (it is the Labour voting wards in the East of Cambridge that were for Leave).
    Bang in the middle of the city, actually. I was handed my degree in that room.
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651

    LucyJones said:

    LucyJones said:

    Finding it increasingly hard to believe the audience is actually representative of the voting public in terms of party support/leavers versus remainers.

    Maybe YouGov is right, the Tories are not as popular as they think...
    Quite possibly. But no way are 52% of the audience erstwhile Leavers.

    Cambridge was 75 per cent Remain.

    This is in the heart of the University part of town, which was probably 90 per cent Remain (it is the Labour voting wards in the East of Cambridge that were for Leave).
    But supposedly the audience is 50/50 Remain/Leave...

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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Oh God Jezza, keep your mouth shut on foreign aid.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    I understand why we talk about spending on defence and foreign aid in terms of % of gdp. I'm not sure why we should do the same with health spending.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    Right, so now on to the Dementia Tax - tough test ahead. This audience started groaning as soon as she started, and no one is letting her answer.

    Rudd stumbling with prepared response as she thought her response out.

    Corbyn looking a bit silly to me yelling about the triple lock -that's one thing the Tories are admitting, so he didn't need to interject, he could have just waited and made that point - I think it was intentional, to ensure she couldn't answer on social care.

    First difficulty for Rudd, social care is a decent policy (if tweaked) as far as I'm concerned, but it is complicated, not clear, it will hurt people's finances, and I am frankly surprised this audience didn't react much more strongly.

    Oh, Tim, you're back. Storytime is it?
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Cor, Tim is related to someone who was ill once. Killer point.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @steve_hawkes: I think YouGov based its poll on the BBC audience
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,466
    The debate is a slanging match which is pathetic and the BBC need to be investigated into the left biase of the audience
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    handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    Danny565 said:

    Oh God Jezza, keep your mouth shut on foreign aid.

    Haha I was shouting the exact same thing at my TV right then
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,243
    bobajobPB said:

    where is Theresa May?

    Indeed. Poor performer so sends a stunt double.

    Been avoiding PB as have too much other stuff to do. But for the first time in my voting life, I am going to vote LAB.

    Theresa is utterly dreadful. Way out of her depth. She stands for virtually everything I disagree with. The Tories are completely failing to recognise the consequences of growing inequality. Dyedwoolie nailed it earlier: People need better wages and better services. Not tax cuts and threshold fiddling.

    I've voted LD at every election since 87 except 92 when I voted SNP. I almost certainly would again if I was in a constituency where they stood a chance but they don't in Ludlow this year, Philip Dunne will win it for the Tories easily. But I welcome the boldness of Labour's manifesto and want to support the principles if not the detail, so it gets my vote. They won't get a chance to implement it as I still think the Tories will get a 70 seat majority. Good, because I want them to own Brexit. And get destroyed over the next 5 years. You deserve it guys ;)

    One other thing though, could the election this replicates be 1945. When the Tories won the (Brexit) war but the people then voted for another party to implement the peace.... Would be a funny old world.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Squeaky bum time for Jezza --- national security.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    edited May 2017
    Tim is coming across as a proper tw@. Caroline is shouty, Nuttall sounds vaguely credible and Rudd seems petty. On the other hand I'm liking the sound of Corbyn as he's the only one making a positive case. Just how unrealistic are his economic policies?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kle4 said:

    Schards said:

    I think the make up of the audience will be one of the main stories of this debate

    The losers always moan about the audience I bet. It is loving Corbyn and Caroline, but the Tories would be better off not attacking the audience - for one I bet Corbyn will be seen as the 'winner' of any post debate poll, so they need to focus on content of Rudd's comments, not arguing how badly it was received by the audience on the night.
    I laid Tory Maj at 1.21 (for a loss having backed it last night at 1.2) before this as surely the crowd whooping everything Jazzy Jez and crew would mean it will drift during this

    Notice the way Nuttall doesnt interrupt others but keeps getting shouted down when it his turn. The weirdos prob wont shake his hand after either
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    Amber Rudd's appeal to "judge us on our record"

    Hopefully they will

    Every Deficit target Immigration target NHS target missed
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    RobD said:

    LucyJones said:

    LucyJones said:

    Finding it increasingly hard to believe the audience is actually representative of the voting public in terms of party support/leavers versus remainers.

    Maybe YouGov is right, the Tories are not as popular as they think...
    Quite possibly. But no way are 52% of the audience erstwhile Leavers.

    Cambridge was 75 per cent Remain.

    This is in the heart of the University part of town, which was probably 90 per cent Remain (it is the Labour voting wards in the East of Cambridge that were for Leave).
    The audience was supposed to be balanced.
    Who did the balancing ? Who owns the scales and weights ?

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,315
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cor, Tim is related to someone who was ill once. Killer point.

    The number of times he mentions it he should be investigated for Munchausen by proxy.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    @steve_hawkes: I think YouGov based its poll on the BBC audience

    He reads pb, I made that point a couple of feet downthread.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,587
    If Parliament had serious time limits on speeches in the Commons, these people would be better at being succinct.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127

    The audience sounds like a Corbyn cult, from what's being said on here.

    They aren't applauding everything he says, but if this is a balanced audience, then the leavers and or Tories are sitting on their hands while the lefties are whooping at Corbyn on several things, and laughing/groaning at Rudd. Caroline and Robertson getting some level of love, Farron less so but some warmth too.

    Nuttal did get some applause on immigration, but I don't know that Rudd has received any.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    welshowl said:

    Ave_it said:

    Leanne whatever her name is, is dreadful

    LAB hold Rhondda

    Why folk on here admire her is beyond me. She's dreadful.
    I would like to give her............my vote.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902

    bobajobPB said:

    where is Theresa May?

    Indeed. Poor performer so sends a stunt double.

    Been avoiding PB as have too much other stuff to do. But for the first time in my voting life, I am going to vote LAB.

    Theresa is utterly dreadful. Way out of her depth. She stands for virtually everything I disagree with. The Tories are completely failing to recognise the consequences of growing inequality. Dyedwoolie nailed it earlier: People need better wages and better services. Not tax cuts and threshold fiddling.

    I've voted LD at every election since 87 except 92 when I voted SNP. I almost certainly would again if I was in a constituency where they stood a chance but they don't in Ludlow this year, Philip Dunne will win it for the Tories easily. But I welcome the boldness of Labour's manifesto and want to support the principles if not the detail, so it gets my vote. They won't get a chance to implement it as I still think the Tories will get a 70 seat majority. Good, because I want them to own Brexit. And get destroyed over the next 5 years. You deserve it guys ;)

    One other thing though, could the election this replicates be 1945. When the Tories won the (Brexit) war but the people then voted for another party to implement the peace.... Would be a funny old world.
    I'm leaning Lab as well, May is scarily authoritarian and cold whereas atlas Corbyn is trying to put forward a positive case for the future.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    Prediction - this audience will grown if Rudd mentions Corbyn and the IRA.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,678
    Danny565 said:

    Have to admit, the audience is annoying me.

    Wow is it really that bad.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Oh God Jezza, keep your mouth shut on foreign aid.

    Haha I was shouting the exact same thing at my TV right then
    Going full-on populist on the economy/tuitionfees/public services, but restraining his usual instincts on immigration and foreign aid, is just the ticket to win over working-class Northern voters.

    Let's see how he handles security though...
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    SchardsSchards Posts: 210
    A mistake by Corbyn and Robertson both yelling over Amber Rudd the first time she was facing a difficult question. TV audience will never know if she could answer it
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,117

    Amber Rudd's appeal to "judge us on our record"

    Hopefully they will

    Every Deficit target Immigration target NHS target missed

    I thought the Labour party didn't support reduced immigration? Why therefore are you attacking the fact that it hasn't reduced sufficiently?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,955
    I've not been fully concentrating on this election but watching the debate Jeremy is something of a revelation.

    He really isn't bad at all and I can finally see what the students have been getting excited about. The clear division between the progressives-particularly Corbyn Farron and Lucas- versus Rudd and Nuttall is striking.

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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    IanB2 said:

    LucyJones said:

    LucyJones said:

    Finding it increasingly hard to believe the audience is actually representative of the voting public in terms of party support/leavers versus remainers.

    Maybe YouGov is right, the Tories are not as popular as they think...
    Quite possibly. But no way are 52% of the audience erstwhile Leavers.

    Cambridge was 75 per cent Remain.

    This is in the heart of the University part of town, which was probably 90 per cent Remain (it is the Labour voting wards in the East of Cambridge that were for Leave).
    Bang in the middle of the city, actually. I was handed my degree in that room.
    I was a wrangler in that room.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    I thought the audience was supposed to keep quiet at these events. I seem to remember Julie etch a sketch telling the audience to be quiet during a debate in 2015.
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    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,003
    Robertson has a somewhat Trumpian hue this evening
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    murali_s said:

    Ave_it said:

    There's no "money tree", Amber Rudd, but there's a hell of a lot of wealth concentrated at the very top and it's time to tax it!

    Er BJO think they pay enough already! Top 1% pay 27% of income tax!! Let's slash benefits (should have put it in the manifesto)!!!
    What benefits you thinking of slashing Mr Ave It?
    What % of wealth do they have AveIt

    What % of NI VAT do they pay

    They pay less than their cleaners and brag about it dont they.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    Chameleon said:

    Tim is coming across as a proper tw@. Caroline is shouty, Nuttall sounds vaguely credible and Rudd seems petty. On the other hand I'm liking the sound of Corbyn as he's the only one making a positive case. Just how unrealistic are his economic policies?

    Very. That's why he can be so positive.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127

    The debate is a slanging match which is pathetic and the BBC need to be investigated into the left biase of the audience

    What will you say when the TV audience agrees?
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Cor, Tim is related to someone who was ill once. Killer point.

    The number of times he mentions it he should be investigated for Munchausen by proxy.
    :D
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    Christ, that was painful for Corbyn.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    tlg86 said:

    I thought the audience was supposed to keep quiet at these events. I seem to remember Julie etch a sketch telling the audience to be quiet during a debate in 2015.

    Yeah, the moderator should be telling them to shut up, or keep it to modest clapping at the end of each section.
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    chloechloe Posts: 308
    kle4 said:

    kjohnw said:

    midwinter said:

    SeanT said:

    This audience is preposterously leftwing.

    Rudd is very good. Thank god May isn't there.
    sounds like Theresa May has made the right call in not appearing
    So far, yes.
    I'm not so sure.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Roger said:

    I've not been fully concentrating on this election but watching the debate Jeremy is something of a revelation.

    He really isn't bad at all and I can finally see what the students have been getting excited about. The clear division between the progressives-particularly Corbyn Farron and Lucas- versus Rudd and Nuttall is striking.

    Yup, Corbyn is coming across really well. Apart from this last minute or so which is very ramble-y.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    Anyone going to get personal on security?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: Corbyn stumbling on this question, his weakest moment of the debate so far
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    chloe said:

    kle4 said:

    kjohnw said:

    midwinter said:

    SeanT said:

    This audience is preposterously leftwing.

    Rudd is very good. Thank god May isn't there.
    sounds like Theresa May has made the right call in not appearing
    So far, yes.
    I'm not so sure.
    She struggled on social care, up to then handled it well.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Tim is actually doing quite well but the format is terrible and no wonder may didnt come
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,587
    kle4 said:

    Anyone going to get personal on security?

    I can sense it coming any second now
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Tim is coming across as a proper tw@. Caroline is shouty, Nuttall sounds vaguely credible and Rudd seems petty. On the other hand I'm liking the sound of Corbyn as he's the only one making a positive case. Just how unrealistic are his economic policies?

    Very. That's why he can be so positive.
    Well, I suppose that I can always take the free tuition, then emigrate if it all really goes to pot.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    Labour will stop cutting police/fire/ambulance services at home, and adopt an ethical foreign policy for a safer Britain & world

    Rudd wants to cut further.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Rudd promising to keep us safe and secure? Hmm :D
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    tlg86 said:

    Christ, that was painful for Corbyn.

    Am I running a few minutes behind, as he seems to be doing fine on this question?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    calum said:
    She is scared of the public. No way is she going to fight another election.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,587
    Here we go
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    nichomar said:

    Tim is actually doing quite well but the format is terrible and no wonder may didnt come

    He's having a shocker, the worst bits of Ed M & Theresa.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2017
    Jez nearly threw up there when he had to criticize the Manchester bomber and not blame the Tories
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,678

    Labour will stop cutting police/fire/ambulance services at home, and adopt an ethical foreign policy for a safer Britain & world

    Rudd wants to cut further.

    All paid for by who? You?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Christ, that was painful for Corbyn.

    Am I running a few minutes behind, as he seems to be doing fine on this question?
    He really struggled when the moderator asked if he thought Manchester wouldn't have happened without the foreign interventions.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Stop calling it "anti-terror legislation" Jezza!!!!!!
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    kle4 said:

    Anyone going to get personal on security?

    Leanne Wood tried it last night in the Wales leaders debate and got met with stony silence from audience
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,587
    The civil liberty argument will always play well in cambridge
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,953
    Has Amber accused anyone of being a sex pest yet? ;)
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,795
    IanB2 said:

    Here we go

    Has a fight broken out?
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Oh shut up Tim, no one thinks that you're actually relevant anymore.
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    chloechloe Posts: 308
    The audience does not seem very balanced.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,551
    This audience is absolutely ridiculous.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127

    Labour will stop cutting police/fire/ambulance services at home, and adopt an ethical foreign policy for a safer Britain & world

    Rudd wants to cut further.

    Labour are promising to increase practically everything (except reversing youth service cuts, for some reason - only that they will stop the cuts) - its 'positive' but unaffordable.

    Corbyn well prepared here.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    Corbyn brilliant retort to Rudds lie on voting against extra security powers

    May and Davis did too
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    Corbyn brilliant retort to Rudds lie on voting against extra security powers

    May and Davis did too

    Not on every single piece of legislation though.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    This audience is absolutely ridiculous.

    And yet no one will complain, so it will keep happening.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    calum said:
    She is scared of the public. No way is she going to fight another election.
    She will probably just abolish elections so she doesn't have to,
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,587
    edited May 2017

    IanB2 said:

    Here we go

    Has a fight broken out?
    Corbyn escaped by telling Rudd that Mrs May voted against some of the anti terror legislation. Rudd seems to have remembered this time that not mentioning Mrs May is point one inked on her palm.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    murali_s said:

    Ave_it said:

    There's no "money tree", Amber Rudd, but there's a hell of a lot of wealth concentrated at the very top and it's time to tax it!

    Er BJO think they pay enough already! Top 1% pay 27% of income tax!! Let's slash benefits (should have put it in the manifesto)!!!
    What benefits you thinking of slashing Mr Ave It?
    What % of wealth do they have AveIt

    What % of NI VAT do they pay

    They pay less than their cleaners and brag about it dont they.
    I have a lot more wealth than my 20yr old self. I and my wife have earned every penny of it and paid every penny in tax, and are "comfortable". I don't see why my 20yr old self would now want to take chunks of it off me punitively just because I have comparative wealth compared to 30 years ago.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    Rudd not landing blows on Corbyn here, on what is supposed to be his weak point.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Could Labour win the election ?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    surbiton said:

    Could Labour win the election ?

    QTWTAIN?
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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,959
    isam said:

    Jez nearly threw up there when he had to criticize the Manchester bomber and not blame the Tories

    He did look like he'd forgotten where he was two or three times. Not his best moment...

    Corbyn brilliant retort to Rudds lie on voting against extra security powers

    May and Davis did too

    I was quite impressed by that given, afaik, Rudd was using a new attack line on the topic.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kle4 said:

    Rudd not landing blows on Corbyn here, on what is supposed to be his weak point.

    Am wondering if Paul Nuttall will act as the Tories' proxy on this.
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    TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225
    welshowl said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Ave_it said:

    malcolmg said:

    May behind the sofa and sends second or third string in. She is useless and unable to defend the nasty policies.

    Where's Nicola?
    She is an MSP, Angus Robertson is the leader of the SNP at Westminster.
    Leanne's there?
    Serious question why no N Ireland parties? 95% of you can't vote Plaid.
    Corbyn is representing Sinn Fein.
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    handandmousehandandmouse Posts: 213
    Paul Nuttall going for the Trump supporters' vote here
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,795
    surbiton said:

    Could Labour win the election ?

    No, but the Conservatives could lose it.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,117
    They should have held this debate in Blyth Valley.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Tims says Manchester is his capital City not London
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    RobD said:

    Corbyn brilliant retort to Rudds lie on voting against extra security powers

    May and Davis did too

    Not on every single piece of legislation though.
    Indeed - a classic Corbyn move, pretend that because sometimes it is the right thing, that doing it always is a reflective stance, rather than default.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223
    Ah, there are some right wingers in there.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,243

    calum said:
    She is scared of the public. No way is she going to fight another election.
    Davis was dire in that interview.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Good round of applause from the lefty audience for Nuttall's suggestion of stripping jihadis of passports.
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Question:

    With the audience balance and the format are you starting to think May avoiding this was still a bad idea or a good one?
This discussion has been closed.