When do they start opening the postal votes? I can't wait for the (now) annual ritual of someone 'accidentally' revealing how well party X is doing in constituency Y and then getting a rollicking for it.
Interesting change of dynamic over the last week. People are now expecting Corbyn to be good at the debate this evening, perhaps to even be a star, possibly even managing to pull off a perfromance that could win the election outright.
It really is an incredible change in perception. He's gone from Albert Steptoe to JFK in a month.
Theresa May has done the complete opposite. The confidence has drained out of her and the Tory campaign. If the Tories did conspire to lose this election, there would be a swift and bloody coup of all those responsible for what could be the worst result in their history.
And losing to Corbyn would be a thousand times worse than the 1997 landslide defeat.
I'm praying that the British public keep their heads and are not seduced by Labour's free lunch.
People respond to politicians in primitive folkloristic ways. I'm sure you'll agree that there's something saintly and holy about Corbyn whilst Theresa suggests a black cat and broomstick.
One minute all happy about the TNS poll, the next a 6% lead sends PBers into meltdown.
To be fair I think a lot of the "panic" is being misinterpreted. What fills most people with dread is simply the thought that he could win. Not necessarily that they actually believe he could.
This! I've never understood negative reasons for voting so much as in this election, as I've never actually worried about someone else winning before. Gordon Brown or Ed M? I had no real concerns. Corbyn? I do. And so even though I don't see how he could win, I've had to go Tory, since if the prospect, however slight, bothers me like that, I should accept that and vote accordingly.
@alex. But where are people getting the idea that Corbyn could win to even have that thought? Polls aren't showing that. Anecdotal canvassing reports on here aren't either.
Now I don't want this to seem like I having a go at you Robert - I agree with your other reasons re Twickenham - but the number of times people ** state total bollox as fact without doing two minutes of basic research or even thinking for a second if they pass the common sense test. If the LibDems had every councillor in Twickenham constituency they would control the borough of Richmond Upon Thames, but they don't.
** And I've done it myself once or twice.
I'm sorry if I got the council wrong. Somehow when I did my calculations for the Richmond Park by election I'd got the impression the LibDems held all the seats in Twickenham (against very few in Richmond Park).
I think the LibDems might have all the councillors in Carshalton constituency:
And the LibDems might only have a single councillor in Richmond Park constituency.
Apologies if my comment was a little brusque but I think it would be better if everyone checks their data before making comments. There's an unfortunate amount of inaccurate crap stated as fact here and I was rather horrified to see someone I regard as a great sage (that's you Robert) falling into that error.
This is a betting site after all and some of us have real money influenced by comments we read here.
If there was a Labour party in the center that had a chance to form the next government sure I wouldn't be happy but I wouldn't be scared either. I am genuinely scared for the country if Corbyn was to get in, I think he's that dangerous.
It's the hubris and arrogance, symbolised by the dementia tax and U-turn, combined with the damage to Theresa May's image that has narrowed the polls.
Things like Fox hunting do matter. It makes you go, oh really they haven't changed a bit. "Nasty bastards. Won't touch them'
Obviously the other stuff adds to the overall impression of them being not only a bit nasty, but a bit incompetent to boot. And what's the point of someone who is both a bit nasty and rubbish?
Only the politically obsessed have clocked it.
No-one else cares or notices, and not a single poll has picked it up as a reason for the Tory wavering.
Exactly the same pledge was in the GE2015 manifesto as well.
The best we can hope for is to deprive May of an overall majority. The idea of Labour most seats is nonsensical.
+1. Literally, no poll has even shown anything close to Labour being the largest party. This bedwetting is getting surreal. It's actually ruining PB.
No one is keeping you here. You can go to a calmer, duller site.
We like to get all panicky and hysterical. It's what we do. We love overreacting to polls. We're obsessive geeks who think way too much. We hide behind the sofa as we wait for the next ComRes. We're PB.
Yes, but I've come to like this place quite a lot.
I don't understand why anyone would like to panic. But hey, that's just me.....
On a more important note. There is a colony of Bombus Hypnorum *(Tree Bumblebee) in one of my old birdboxes in the garden.
Lovely to see, but a bit too near my runnerbeans for comfort. It seems they are generally docile.
Jezza is right about the pleasures of gardening.
* apparently a recent immigrant to the country, first reported in 2001. They are not endangered and are resistant to the mites that kill a lot of other species.
The fox hunting issue symbolises hubris for some of the people, too. Indulging very niche - and also sometimes very decisive - tory issues, like fox-hunting, was both a function and overt display of overconfidence. Indulging unpopular policies was also part of the same issue as well.
Meanwhile Labour has been the party busy as hell reorganising its ground campaigns.
If there was a Labour party in the center that had a chance to form the next government sure I wouldn't be happy but I wouldn't be scared either. I am genuinely scared for the country if Corbyn was to get in, I think he's that dangerous.
Yes, he's dangerous for the rich and powerful. Good spot!
Survey monkey for the Sun 44 38 6 closing in from 8 lead to 6
FFS. Ever closer. We're looking at a Hung Parliament, or a very modest Tory maj.
AGAINST JEREMY BLOODY CORBYN
Calm down.
Did you see the "thinking about Brexit" clip?
Nope.
I can't actually watch Theresa May any more. It's too painful. It is, as you said, Gordon Brown all over again, right down to the eerie smiles.
In a way this is worse. Brown went down to expected defeat against a clever opponent. TMay is close to throwing away a huge landslide victory against the worst Opposition leader since Ceolwulf the Prolapsed got literally zero votes in 549AD.
Except Corbyn is clearly not that bad an opposition leader, he is having a far better campaign than Michael Foot, William Hague and Ed Miliband had for example (and almost certainly better than IDS would have had) and is better able to motivate his base than they all did, yet despite all that May still is polling 42% or over in every poll principally because of UKIP voters moving to the Tories
Have you seen the newspapers each day? They talk about Corbyn and terrorists, Nuclear unilateralism, unaffordable spending, mass immigration etc etc. I don't think that equates to a good campaign.
Depends which newspapers, the Mirror and Guardian and Independent are rather different
The first two are preaching to a private pro-Lab choir. Does anyone read the Independent, present company excepted?
It's slightly awkward, but I don't think that Theresa May clip is quite as bad as people make out.
Why should Corbyn be thinking about Brexit? Earlier in the day Tory Press Office said she'd be meeting real voters not thinking hard. The forcing of Brexit into the answer was painfully robotic.
What's the betting she has spent years looking at Cameron and thinking 'I could do that job'.
Now, she is realising its takes something very special to survive the pressure.
Yeah, Cameron was so good under pressure he quit within hours of the vote last June.......
It wasn't pressure, it was honour.
You lose a nation changing referendum, you have to go, your credibility is shot.
I still get confused on this. If Cameron had so much honour, why did he say he wouldn't resign if he lost? I genuinely wonder how many would have weighed up his departure before voting Leave if he had said "if I lose the Referendum, I will immediately resign...."
I discussed this with one of his staff.
As per the Indyref, if he had said 'I'll quit if I lose the referendum' some non Tory voters would have voted Leave just to get rid of the Tory PM.
In 2015 the Tories polled 37% or so, Non Tories polled 63%.
Well that just shows the terrible judgement Cameron had if he had 37% for him and 63% against him. Surely Osborne, the arch strategist he is reputed to be would have advised him it was a silly thing to pledge that vote.
It is well known Osborne advised against holding the EURef.
But, Osborne offered Tories nothing more than Blairism with lower taxes.
Just what exactly was "Conservative" about him, other than that?
@alex. But where are people getting the idea that Corbyn could win to even have that thought? Polls aren't showing that. Anecdotal canvassing reports on here aren't either.
What is a 'win' for Corbyn? I doubt he personally wants to get the keys to No. 10; a win for him would be to do well enough to prove to his doubters within Labour that his way is the way forward.
I reckon he'll be happy if he gets a larger percentage vote share than Miliband got. With that, he'll be able to continue changing his party ready for someone else to take over.
Edit: if he was to get to No. 10 (and he won't), I predict he'll soon hand over to someone else.
I feel sick with worry. The next week is going to be unbearable. The prospect of JCIPM is unthinkable, disastrous. Or DAIHS. Or, gof forbid, JMICotE. Faced with a choice of some dull, gaffe prone adults or a bunch of insane toddlers, voters are going to go for the toddlers, aren't they? I know facebook is unrepresenattaive, but my facebook is full of people I previously would never have dreamed of as hard left posting stuff from Momentum, and the Canary. I'm hoping that Yougiv has fallen victim to shenanigans, and has had big numbers of Corbynites joining the panel, and that this poll isn't real. But I'm clutching at straws.
Look at the last thread. PBers have gone through the YouGov model and exposed it as pretty flawed.
In any case though, one study/poll should not cause this kind of consternation when pretty much all other pollsters are showing the Tories as having a majority.
Well yes, Miss Apocalypse, and thank you.. I didn't feel this way when it was Ed Miliband. I voted Tory in 2015, but I could understand why people voted for Ed, and while I was nervous of parts of Labour in general, I wasn't scared of Ed and Ed. But the prospect of Jez, JMcD and Diane is just too awful to contemplate. So while I accept the most likely outcome is still TMIPM, I am genuinely scared of this not being the case. I can't afford to emigrate.
My wife isn't worried he'll win, btw. And she has much better political antennae than I do, by virtue of seeing things much more how most voters do. This attitude affords her the luxury of not voting Tory because of fox-hunting. (Not that our votes matter one way or another: it's a safe Labour seat.)
The fox hunting issue symbolises hubris for some of the people, too. Indulging very niche - and also sometimes very decisive - tory issues, like fox-hunting, was both a function and overt display of overconfidence. Indulging unpopular policies was also part of the same issue as well.
Meanwhile Labour has been the party busy as hell reorganising its ground campaigns.
very *divisive*, I meant ! ;.) The tories will be hoping it's not decisive.
@alex. But where are people getting the idea that Corbyn could win to even have that thought? Polls aren't showing that. Anecdotal canvassing reports on here aren't either.
From my perspective it's bad enough that he might be able to stay in position and potentially be elected in 5 years time. That's why I hated the "Tories for Corbyn" meme. You can never account for events.
I reckon if he actually won Labour would be at 10% in the polls within 2 years. Some Tories might think that was actually a reason to hope he wins!
oh dear, Tim Farron is terribly wooden in this debate in the opening statements. Come back Nick Clegg (I know he has been fronting things for the Lib Dems this week but he should be leader).
If there was a Labour party in the center that had a chance to form the next government sure I wouldn't be happy but I wouldn't be scared either. I am genuinely scared for the country if Corbyn was to get in, I think he's that dangerous.
Yes, he's dangerous for the rich and powerful. Good spot!
You really believe self-proclaimed Marxist John McDonnell will only target 'the rich and the powerful'? That Garden tax seriously indicates otherwise. My family and I would like to continue to be able to live in our home, thank you very much. We certainly not 'rich and powerful.'
oh dear, Tim Farron is terribly wooden in this debate in the opening statements. Come back Nick Clegg (I know he has been fronting things for the Lib Dems this week but he should be leader).
Actually if they'd taken the excuse of May not being there to send Clegg instead it would have been a brilliant move to capitalise on any nostalgia for the 'strong and stable' days of the coalition.
The best we can hope for is to deprive May of an overall majority. The idea of Labour most seats is nonsensical.
+1. Literally, no poll has even shown anything close to Labour being the largest party. This bedwetting is getting surreal. It's actually ruining PB.
No one is keeping you here. You can go to a calmer, duller site.
We like to get all panicky and hysterical. It's what we do. We love overreacting to polls. We're obsessive geeks who think way too much. We hide behind the sofa as we wait for the next ComRes. We're PB.
Yes, but I've come to like this place quite a lot.
I don't understand why anyone would like to panic. But hey, that's just me.....
But Yougov isn't too far from Lab+SNP > Con. Hence, JCIPM.
Obviously the other stuff adds to the overall impression of them being not only a bit nasty, but a bit incompetent to boot. And what's the point of someone who is both a bit nasty and rubbish?
Nasty and rubbish? Like Jeremy "I can't remember my own policies" Corbyn the terrorist sympathiser?
@alex. But where are people getting the idea that Corbyn could win to even have that thought? Polls aren't showing that. Anecdotal canvassing reports on here aren't either.
Extrapolate the trend with, say, YouGov and Labour will be largest party on June 9th and Corbyn will probably be PM in a kind of coalition with the SNP.
This is now quite possible. Horrendous.
YouGov?
You take that model seriously?
The lead has been relatively stable since the weekend - we know it's somewhere between 6 to 15 points, roughly, with the average being a 9% - 10% lead all in all.
Anyone considered that sending Rudd tonight (rather than say boycotting) is May laying an insurance policy for the Tories just in case she has to go post election?
Rudd is unapologetically repeating and repeating the Crosby lines. I presume this works in the aggregate as otherwise Crosby wouldn't do it, but it looks astonishingly robotic to me.
Hahaha - Theresa May might be outside my window! Good one Tim; someone's going for broke.
Good idea but it sounded crass IMO.
My 'good one' was ironic - I thought it sounded desperate and ridiculous. But then as a soon to be member of the PB Tories at least on June 8th, I would say that.
There is a chance that Wills is right and she has missed an insulin shot, it which case she deserves a good deal of sympathy. But, dunno.
My ex had badly-controlled diabetes. It can be painful and scary, and it makes you sweat and faint and go pale - and she does look a bit like that, in that video.
Like I said: I feel properly sorry for her. But we need a hale and hearty and competent PM to do a decent Brexit. Sentimentality won't butter any Brussels sprouts.
By contrast Jezza is in rude health, and clearly loving it. He plays football on Cup Final morning then rocks up to Wembley to cheer with the fans. He even dresses better these days.
Is it May = Hillary, Jezza = Trump???? Surely. Not.
I wonder how many of the PB lefties would vote Labour if they thought Corbyn's Labour could actually win.
Would you? Hand on heart, if you thought this election was on a knife-edge, would you risk a Corbyn government, with McDonnell and Abbott at his side?
That has to be the Tories' last, best hope. In the end, Corbyn and Co are too scary and mad, no matter how affable Jezbollah seems. And I reckon it will be enough. But......
Labour is offering good, interesting things like an end to tuition fees. The Tories offer nothing. Instead for some bizarre reason they raise toxic issues like Fox Hunting.
Oh, I agree. But I am also, genuinely, curious - lots of PB lefties dislike or even abhor Corbyn. I get the feeling they will hold their noses and vote for him, because they don't want a Tory landslide, safe in the knowledge Corbyn is nowhere near power.
But if they REALLY thought Corbyn was about to win, with all that means, would they vote for him? Would you?
@alex. But where are people getting the idea that Corbyn could win to even have that thought? Polls aren't showing that. Anecdotal canvassing reports on here aren't either.
What is a 'win' for Corbyn? I doubt he personally wants to get the keys to No. 10; a win for him would be to do well enough to prove to his doubters within Labour that his way is the way forward.
I reckon he'll be happy if he gets a larger percentage vote share than Miliband got. With that, he'll be able to continue changing his party ready for someone else to take over.
Edit: if he was to get to No. 10 (and he won't), I predict he'll soon hand over to someone else.
win = largest party at the very least and is able to govern.
oh dear, Tim Farron is terribly wooden in this debate in the opening statements. Come back Nick Clegg (I know he has been fronting things for the Lib Dems this week but he should be leader).
Actually if they'd taken the excuse of May not being there to send Clegg instead it would have been a brilliant move to capitalise on any nostalgia for the 'strong and stable' days of the coalition.
Yes, Clegg is impressive on the TV. I don't necessarily agree with everything he says but he comes across well.
Optimal result for the Tories this general election:
Con 44% Lab 35% Con Majority 62.
It's big enough so that they can get Brexit done and allow Tezza to say the election was worthwhile but it's also far better for Labour that expected at the start of the election with Jezz increasing Labour's vote share 5% compared to Miliband.
Jezza would be quite within his rights to ask the PLP and Labour Party to let him stay on for another go.
Hahaha - Theresa May might be outside my window! Good one Tim; someone's going for broke.
Good idea but it sounded crass IMO.
My 'good one' was ironic - I thought it sounded desperate and ridiculous. But then as a soon to be member of the PB Tories at least on June 8th, I would say that.
@iainjwatson: & Angus Robertson calls for a top UK tax rate of 50p -snp froze higher threshold but didn't use new powers to increase 45p rate on Scotland
@alex. But where are people getting the idea that Corbyn could win to even have that thought? Polls aren't showing that. Anecdotal canvassing reports on here aren't either.
From my perspective it's bad enough that he might be able to stay in position and potentially be elected in 5 years time. That's why I hated the "Tories for Corbyn" meme. You can never account for events.
I reckon if he actually won Labour would be at 10% in the polls within 2 years. Some Tories might think that was actually a reason to hope he wins!
As Southam has said, it's down to the unions. The Labour membership may be beyond help.
Hahaha - Theresa May might be outside my window! Good one Tim; someone's going for broke.
Good idea but it sounded crass IMO.
My 'good one' was ironic - I thought it sounded desperate and ridiculous. But then as a soon to be member of the PB Tories at least on June 8th, I would say that.
Survey monkey for the Sun 44 38 6 closing in from 8 lead to 6
FFS. Ever closer. We're looking at a Hung Parliament, or a very modest Tory maj.
AGAINST JEREMY BLOODY CORBYN
Calm down.
Did you see the "thinking about Brexit" clip?
Nope.
I can't actually watch Theresa May any more. It's too painful. It is, as you said, Gordon Brown all over again, right down to the eerie smiles.
In a way this is worse. Brown went down to expected defeat against a clever opponent. TMay is close to throwing away a huge landslide victory against the worst Opposition leader since Ceolwulf the Prolapsed got literally zero votes in 549AD.
Except Corbyn is clearly not that bad an opposition leader, he is having a far better campaign than Michael Foot, William Hague and Ed Miliband had for example (and almost certainly better than IDS would have had) and is better able to motivate his base than they all did, yet despite all that May still is polling 42% or over in every poll principally because of UKIP voters moving to the Tories
Have you seen the newspapers each day? They talk about Corbyn and terrorists, Nuclear unilateralism, unaffordable spending, mass immigration etc etc. I don't think that equates to a good campaign.
Depends which newspapers, the Mirror and Guardian and Independent are rather different
The first two are preaching to a private pro-Lab choir. Does anyone read the Independent, present company excepted?
The Indepenent takes its copy from the Morning Star.
@iainjwatson: & Angus Robertson calls for a top UK tax rate of 50p -snp froze higher threshold but didn't use new powers to increase 45p rate on Scotland
They want to tax the English to pay for their sweeties.
@alex. But where are people getting the idea that Corbyn could win to even have that thought? Polls aren't showing that. Anecdotal canvassing reports on here aren't either.
From my perspective it's bad enough that he might be able to stay in position and potentially be elected in 5 years time. That's why I hated the "Tories for Corbyn" meme. You can never account for events.
I reckon if he actually won Labour would be at 10% in the polls within 2 years. Some Tories might think that was actually a reason to hope he wins!
As Southam has said, it's down to the unions. The Labour membership may be beyond help.
If the unions are the answer (in a political context), it's the wrong question.
The best we can hope for is to deprive May of an overall majority. The idea of Labour most seats is nonsensical.
+1. Literally, no poll has even shown anything close to Labour being the largest party. This bedwetting is getting surreal. It's actually ruining PB.
No one is keeping you here. You can go to a calmer, duller site.
We like to get all panicky and hysterical. It's what we do. We love overreacting to polls. We're obsessive geeks who think way too much. We hide behind the sofa as we wait for the next ComRes. We're PB.
Yes, but I've come to like this place quite a lot.
I don't understand why anyone would like to panic. But hey, that's just me.....
But Yougov isn't too far from Lab+SNP > Con. Hence, JCIPM.
@alex. But where are people getting the idea that Corbyn could win to even have that thought? Polls aren't showing that. Anecdotal canvassing reports on here aren't either.
What is a 'win' for Corbyn? I doubt he personally wants to get the keys to No. 10; a win for him would be to do well enough to prove to his doubters within Labour that his way is the way forward.
I reckon he'll be happy if he gets a larger percentage vote share than Miliband got. With that, he'll be able to continue changing his party ready for someone else to take over.
Edit: if he was to get to No. 10 (and he won't), I predict he'll soon hand over to someone else.
win = largest party at the very least and is able to govern.
A win for him is about being able to stay in control of his party. If that somehow meant being PM I'm sure he's be thrilled, but short of that, enough to hold off a rebellion would do. I think he's achieved that at the least - the moderates won't challenge a man who does better than Ed M (which is likely) when they thought he's crash and burn.
Rudd is unapologetically repeating and repeating the Crosby lines. I presume this works in the aggregate as otherwise Crosby wouldn't do it, but it looks astonishingly robotic to me.
Everyone said that about the referendum - "Vote Leave - Take Back Control"
And 2015 election "Long term economic plan"
These "lines" do work with floaters.
Remember the vast majority of voters don't follow politics and only pick up the occasional bit of information and sound-bite.
Comments
In No 10 next week!
Not A Cult.
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/map/2014/31/
And the LibDems might only have a single councillor in Richmond Park constituency.
Apologies if my comment was a little brusque but I think it would be better if everyone checks their data before making comments. There's an unfortunate amount of inaccurate crap stated as fact here and I was rather horrified to see someone I regard as a great sage (that's you Robert) falling into that error.
This is a betting site after all and some of us have real money influenced by comments we read here.
No-one else cares or notices, and not a single poll has picked it up as a reason for the Tory wavering.
Exactly the same pledge was in the GE2015 manifesto as well.
I don't understand why anyone would like to panic. But hey, that's just me.....
Lovely to see, but a bit too near my runnerbeans for comfort. It seems they are generally docile.
Jezza is right about the pleasures of gardening.
* apparently a recent immigrant to the country, first reported in 2001. They are not endangered and are resistant to the mites that kill a lot of other species.
Meanwhile Labour has been the party busy as hell reorganising its ground campaigns.
It looks like he's being too clever.
I think she'll do ok.
I reckon he'll be happy if he gets a larger percentage vote share than Miliband got. With that, he'll be able to continue changing his party ready for someone else to take over.
Edit: if he was to get to No. 10 (and he won't), I predict he'll soon hand over to someone else.
I didn't feel this way when it was Ed Miliband. I voted Tory in 2015, but I could understand why people voted for Ed, and while I was nervous of parts of Labour in general, I wasn't scared of Ed and Ed. But the prospect of Jez, JMcD and Diane is just too awful to contemplate. So while I accept the most likely outcome is still TMIPM, I am genuinely scared of this not being the case. I can't afford to emigrate.
My wife isn't worried he'll win, btw. And she has much better political antennae than I do, by virtue of seeing things much more how most voters do. This attitude affords her the luxury of not voting Tory because of fox-hunting. (Not that our votes matter one way or another: it's a safe Labour seat.)
Nobody going to gain much here.
Tim Farron good opening
If Rudd does badly. May loses.
So far, Rudd looks the part of PM.
The only question is whether Corbyn can cut through in this format.
I reckon if he actually won Labour would be at 10% in the polls within 2 years. Some Tories might think that was actually a reason to hope he wins!
It is bear-pit. The Tories have sent a Spectacled Bear.
You take that model seriously?
The lead has been relatively stable since the weekend - we know it's somewhere between 6 to 15 points, roughly, with the average being a 9% - 10% lead all in all.
Rudd "Tough"
Corbyn £10 an hour 186 to 1 gap BoardRoom to Workers
Everyone else "Tories are a set of bastards."
Con 44% Lab 35% Con Majority 62.
It's big enough so that they can get Brexit done and allow Tezza to say the election was worthwhile but it's also far better for Labour that expected at the start of the election with Jezz increasing Labour's vote share 5% compared to Miliband.
Jezza would be quite within his rights to ask the PLP and Labour Party to let him stay on for another go.
They have a remarkable ability to deliver the right result and indeed a pretty faultles track record of having done so over many decades.
Jeremy is not PM material and the British people will not let him within a country mile of Downing St.
A comfortable Conservative majority has been likely since the start and remains overwhelmingly likely now.
Someone on the train just referred to the Prime Minister as TRESemmé.
A stranger then turned to him and his friend and started slagging off May's performance with Paxo.
Must be kicking up in there
I'm not the only one either.
And 2015 election "Long term economic plan"
These "lines" do work with floaters.
Remember the vast majority of voters don't follow politics and only pick up the occasional bit of information and sound-bite.
Only UK parties should be there.