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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa’s Tories drop to their lowest level yet on the Commons

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  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    MOE.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    YouGov.....
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    ydoethur said:




    I teach them. And have done now for 11 years in schools and universities, including inner city Bristol and the leafy suburbs of Gloucestershire to the mid-point of Cannock.

    They would. They really would. Greed is not predicated on unfairness. After all by that logic rich businessmen would stop earning when they'd had enough. Yet they don't. Don't look at Trump because he isn't exactly nice to look at (!) but the key difference between him and a socialist is that he has money and they don't. Their ultimate aims are very similar.

    Well I can't claim to speak for everyone of my generation, and there are likely some individuals like you describe, but in general, at least among my circle, there is a feeling of a loaded deck against us and while we see our tuition fees and rents skyrocket the elderly, that have benefitted massively from house price inflation see their pensions rise by 3% year-by-year even when inflation is near zero.
    Well, Corbyn was furious tonight that Rudd was removing the triple lock pension bribe (in fairness I think he was repeatedly asking that, even though its not something the tories would contest, in part to disrupt Rudd's attempt to answer on social care)
    Yeah, he's no saviour of the young either, but I know lots of people are eyeing up the free uni and then are looking to emigrate after they finish (Canada is the overwhelming favourite).
    Canada has pretty tough immigration. Good luck to them if they think it'll be easy to get in there.
    It's not too bad providing that you have a useful degree, however if they can't get into Canada they'll just switch countries until they find one that they can get in to.
    Canada is also a rare place with a property bubble worse than ours
    Yeah, I never said that we were logically consistent! It also has to be said that among my generation there will also be big winners from the housing boom down the line, personally I'm planning on renting abroad, before using the inheritance money to buy a very nice place somewhere for myself.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    YouGov.....
    Granted, but they aren't proven wrong until, well, its proven.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    YouGov.....
    Granted, but they aren't proven wrong until, well, its proven.
    But they certainly seem to be so far ahead of the curve they are either brilliant - or pathetic!
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)


    Ok, not taking YG seriously anymore.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    Closest yet, LDs still stucka round 7-8.

    It is impressive that rain or shine, good day, great day or bad day, Labour don't dip at all. Getting close to 2005 numbers? I know the LDs are well down, but really?
    Meant 2001.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Miss Aco

    That story is someone from the Tories claiming it would lead to those fees! Ignore!

    The trouble is I really don't trust McDonnell. I'm very ill at ease to find out what he'd do.

    If Labour had normal political figures in the main jobs, it'd be one thing. I'd take Ed Balls as Shadow Chancellor anyday over McMao.

    They are all steeped in the confrontational, agit-prop politics of the 70s and 80s. They are appalling and McDonnell is worst of all. But they are not going to win. The Tories are. The damage a no deal Brexit would inflict on the UK is worse than anything McDonnell could do - primarily because he could not get it through Parliament. I am not voting Labour next week. But there's no way on earth I could vote for a party seriously proposing that walking away deal-less from the EU is anything other than a total and unmitigated catastrophe. A party that thinks that way cannot be trusted.

    Those are fair points, and as I said before I'll probably protest vote Green, in the end.

    I seriously hope that Labour MPs would not entertain any crazy ideas by McDonnell and Corbyn. But I fear the threat of deselection may lead to some being pressured into voting for them if the worst happened.
    Voting Green to evade the more crazy of Labour's policies is certainly a novel approach, I grant you.
    Yes, I know. But they'll never get into power, and I'd like to vote for a left of centre party at this GE, ideally.
    The LibDems under Farron are clearly left of centre, without Labour's crazy bits. Indeed in some areas, such as their tax policy, they are more redistributive (which used to be the key left/right differentiator) than Labour.
    The LDs are WAY too Europhile for me. I was originally going to vote for them, but they've put me off gradually over the course of this campaign.
    Very interesting you're a centrist and a bit of a eurosceptic, Apocalypse. I must confess I thought you were a very solid left-winger and very pro-EU.

    I do hope we can do something to persuade you to lend us your vote this once over the next week or so.
    I wouldn't call myself a centrist!
    I'm pro-EU overall but I don't think the EU is perfect by any means.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    YouGov.....
    Granted, but they aren't proven wrong until, well, its proven.
    But they certainly seem to be so far ahead of the curve they are either brilliant - or pathetic!
    Indeed! Not even Labour thought they would be where YouGov say, they truly are geniuses. If they are right.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    ydoethur said:

    Chameleon said:


    I applauded May when she proposed the policy, then she rowed back on it, and now no-one really knows what the policy is (capped at £????)?

    With regards to the levels that tuition fees are set at, currently the vast majority of people are unlikely to ever pay back their loans, especially as inflation rises so it in effects acts like an additional 9% tax on income for those unfortunate enough to be born after 1995, so it is likely that they could be lowered to back to the £3000 level at a minimal cost. Any cost incurred could be easily offset by things such as means testing the state pension or creating a pensioner health-care levy on pensioners.

    In all honesty the politics of the UK seems to be just so far removed from my politics that its come to the point where I want to maximise my economic wellbeing and get out.

    It wouldn't be minimal cost. It is a graduate tax, of course you are right, but it's actually going to pay off most of the principal over the 30 years of the average graduate earnings. Some may not pay much, but others will pay far more. The real killer, and to this extent I do agree, is the interest on it, which will prove problematic for people repaying it. However, that is a different problem that probably can be adjusted.

    Also the cost of tuition on most university courses is more than £9,000 (although that also says a lot about the corruption and inefficiency of HE). So even now they are running at a loss. Corbyn has proposed to increase that loss substantially. Guess where cuts fall under such circumstances? Hint: not where they should. The first subjects to die would be Stem, which is very expensive to run.

    The policy May espoused is still there. There has been the suggestion of possible watering down further on, but no change to the manifesto. So if you approve of it, you have the option of voting for it.

    Anyway, hope you have found that instructive. Good night.
    Freezing the threshold means far, far more graduates will now be forced to pay back their entire loan + interest (@rpi+3%). Even lower earners will pay back significantly more of their loan.

    In a medium/high interest environment (and with wages rising in response), the threshold freeze will have a really significant impact on the living standards of these graduates.

    Osborne knew this when he did it last year - a massive, deferred tax rise on new graduates.

    When the Plan 2 book is sold off it'll raise way more money for the treasury, than it would have done with the previous threshold in place.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,857
    YouGov: keeping the nation's blood pressure nice and low since 1862.
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    chloechloe Posts: 308

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)


    Ok, not taking YG seriously anymore.

    Maybe they are right. The media narrative certainly suggests Labour has momentum.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    It wasn't supposed to be like this.
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    YouGov.....
    The price of a Tory majority has moved another tick away from the Tories, to 1.22-1.23.

    Goodnight everyone.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    It wasn't supposed to be like this.
    And it isn't, with other pollsters...
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,610

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Miss Aco

    That story is someone from the Tories claiming it would lead to those fees! Ignore!

    The trouble is I really don't trust McDonnell. I'm very ill at ease to find out what he'd do.

    If Labour had normal political figures in the main jobs, it'd be one thing. I'd take Ed Balls as Shadow Chancellor anyday over McMao.

    hat thinks that way cannot be trusted.

    Those are fair points, and as I said before I'll probably protest vote Green, in the end.

    I seriously hope that Labour MPs would not entertain any crazy ideas by McDonnell and Corbyn. But I fear the threat of deselection may lead to some being pressured into voting for them if the worst happened.
    Voting Green to evade the more crazy of Labour's policies is certainly a novel approach, I grant you.
    Yes, I know. But they'll never get into power, and I'd like to vote for a left of centre party at this GE, ideally.
    The LibDems under Farron are clearly left of centre, without Labour's crazy bits. Indeed in some areas, such as their tax policy, they are more redistributive (which used to be the key left/right differentiator) than Labour.
    The LDs are WAY too Europhile for me. I was originally going to vote for them, but they've put me off gradually over the course of this campaign.
    Very interesting you're a centrist and a bit of a eurosceptic, Apocalypse. I must confess I thought you were a very solid left-winger and very pro-EU.

    I do hope we can do something to persuade you to lend us your vote this once over the next week or so.
    I wouldn't call myself a centrist!
    I'm pro-EU overall but I don't think the EU is perfect by any means.
    The LibDems are very strong supporters of EU reform, as is the ALDE group generally across Europe. That is what Tim was trying to communicate with his rather hamfisted self-reference as a Eurosceptic early in the campaign, which he should have been bright enough to foresee would be used against him. Strongly believing that our future should lie in closer relationships and pooled decision-making with our neighbours is not incompatible with dissatisfaction about the unaccountable way the EU currently operates.
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    I thought peak labour was yesterday. How wrong I was.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    39% :smiley:
    YouGov's view is go big or go home. Fuck it, I'm rooting for them. They're right and everyone else is wrong.
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 39% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-2)
    UKIP: 4% (-)

    (via @YouGov / 30 - 31 May)

    I thought peak labour was yesterday. How wrong I was.
    Peak Labour was before Manchester. After Manchester. Before Woman's Hour. After Woman's Hour. Before the debate. After the debate.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,046

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Miss Aco

    That story is someone from the Tories claiming it would lead to those fees! Ignore!

    The trouble is I really don't trust McDonnell. I'm very ill at ease to find out what he'd do.

    If Labour had normal political figures in the main jobs, it'd be one thing. I'd take Ed Balls as Shadow Chancellor anyday over McMao.

    They are all steeped in the confrontational, agit-prop politics of the 70s and 80s. They are appalling and McDonnell is worst of all. But they are not going to win. The Tories are. The damage a no deal Brexit would inflict on the UK is worse than anything McDonnell could do - primarily because he could not get it through Parliament. I am not voting Labour next week. But there's no way on earth I could vote for a party seriously proposing that walking away deal-less from the EU is anything other than a total and unmitigated catastrophe. A party that thinks that way cannot be trusted.

    Those are fair points, and as I said before I'll probably protest vote Green, in the end.

    I seriously hope that Labour MPs would not entertain any crazy ideas by McDonnell and Corbyn. But I fear the threat of deselection may lead to some being pressured into voting for them if the worst happened.
    Voting Green to evade the more crazy of Labour's policies is certainly a novel approach, I grant you.
    Yes, I know. But they'll never get into power, and I'd like to vote for a left of centre party at this GE, ideally.
    The LibDems under Farron are clearly left of centre, without Labour's crazy bits. Indeed in some areas, such as their tax policy, they are more redistributive (which used to be the key left/right differentiator) than Labour.
    The LDs are WAY too Europhile for me. I was originally going to vote for them, but they've put me off gradually over the course of this campaign.
    Very interesting you're a centrist and a bit of a eurosceptic, Apocalypse. I must confess I thought you were a very solid left-winger and very pro-EU.

    I do hope we can do something to persuade you to lend us your vote this once over the next week or so.
    God no! Vote Conservative and you won't be able to sleep at night. Vote anything BUT Conservative please!
This discussion has been closed.