I'm selling Lib/Dem seats, surely they won't get more than 12, if they stay on 9 I'll get 3.5 times stake.
I think they'll get less than 12, but the risk/reward is terribly asymmetric. You have effectively sold a call option on LibDem seats for only a small premium.
I lost quite a lot of money buying UKIP on the spreads in 2014/15.
I don't regret it in the slightest. It was a great value bet at 3/4/5 seats when they were 20%+ in the polls.
The LD's still have that *potential* premium built into their spread price. At 6-9% in the polls - and the countdown timer nearly out, buying LD seats on the spreads is a terrible bet.
I think I might stay off here until June 9th. The mania is absolutely incomprehensible. Nothing I've seen suggests anything other than a modest-comfortable Tory win.
I know it's not nice for Tories to have to think that the 200+ majority has escaped them, but come on.
Survey monkey for the Sun 44 38 6 closing in from 8 lead to 6
FFS. Ever closer. We're looking at a Hung Parliament, or a very modest Tory maj.
AGAINST JEREMY BLOODY CORBYN
Calm down.
Did you see the "thinking about Brexit" clip?
Nope.
I can't actually watch Theresa May any more. It's too painful. It is, as you said, Gordon Brown all over again, right down to the eerie smiles.
In a way this is worse. Brown went down to expected defeat against a clever opponent. TMay is close to throwing away a huge landslide victory against the worst Opposition leader since Ceolwulf the Prolapsed got literally zero votes in 549AD.
Except Corbyn is clearly not that bad an opposition leader, he is having a far better campaign than Michael Foot, William Hague and Ed Miliband had for example (and almost certainly better than IDS would have had) and is better able to motivate his base than they all did, yet despite all that May still is polling 42% or over in every poll principally because of UKIP voters moving to the Tories
Have you seen the newspapers each day? They talk about Corbyn and terrorists, Nuclear unilateralism, unaffordable spending, mass immigration etc etc. I don't think that equates to a good campaign.
Depends which newspapers, the Mirror and Guardian and Independent are rather different
Toe-curling might be the verdict from central London but remember she goes down rather well in the provincial marginals because she reminds people of themselves to a certain extent.
Still, after an afternoon of volunteering, it is reassuring to know that the Tory bed wetting is still in full flow.
Straw poll of where I was working: people beginning to think Labour could snatch this. Enough Corbyn sweeties and give-aways, and a total f-up on Dementia Tax are the cut throughs.
Survey monkey for the Sun 44 38 6 closing in from 8 lead to 6
FFS. Ever closer. We're looking at a Hung Parliament, or a very modest Tory maj.
AGAINST JEREMY BLOODY CORBYN
Calm down.
Did you see the "thinking about Brexit" clip?
Nope.
I can't actually watch Theresa May any more. It's too painful. It is, as you said, Gordon Brown all over again, right down to the eerie smiles.
In a way this is worse. Brown went down to expected defeat against a clever opponent. TMay is close to throwing away a huge landslide victory against the worst Opposition leader since Ceolwulf the Prolapsed got literally zero votes in 549AD.
Sean, I'm one of Theresa May's most trenchant critics.
Yes, she's crap, but she's up against Corbyn, ignore the VI and the Tories/May are on course for victory.
She might have blown a 25% lead, but it is likely to be a 10-15% lead for the Blues which indicates a three figure majority.
The Tories don't fanny about, if she continues to be crap, she'll be deposed before she knows it.
The Tories toppled Thatcher when she had a 100 seat majority
Ordinarily I'd agree with you, but in this case there's Brexit to consider. I can't see the Tories getting rid of her (assuming victory next week) before Brexit is done and dusted.... unless polling shows Brexit is suddenly very unpopular (and I mean 65%+ unpopular) and then we might see a 'let's not Brexit' PM appear. Personally I think that's very unlikely (in a YouGov probability way!).
If the Tories get rid of May and agree soft Brexit, half their voters if not more will move en masse to UKIP
Kantar TNS numbers now out and they have the Tories leading with 25-34 year olds, 45-54 year olds, 55-64 year olds and the over 65s. Labour leads with 18-24s and 35-44s.
10% of 2015 Labour voters are now voting Tory and 6% of 2015 Tory voters are now voting Labour. 27% of 2015 LDs are voting Tory and 22% Labour. 46% of 2015 UKIP voters are voting Tory and 15% Labour
When did they stop reporting polls without 3% MOE? I say that because a 6% poll lead could indicate a tie.
For me so long the Tories poll above 40% they are very safe. If you start seeing leading 3s only then does it get vaguely interesting.
The YouGov poll was so huge that the margin of error owing to random sampling effects would be only a fraction of a percentage point. But that doesn't eliminate the margin of error owing to not knowing how accurate the model is.
that's not true. if the sample is unrepresentative then the MOE would be greater
I'm including that under inaccuracies of the model. I agree that if there's a persistent, systematic bias in the sampling it would affect the result. But the statistical variation between repeated samples would still be tiny.
but if there's, say, a shy tory effect it'll make no difference how many people you sample if you don't get it right (or at all)
Yes. That's why I was pointing out that even though the statistical margin of error can be tiny for a large poll, there can be still be significant systematic errors.
It's like tossing a biased coin. If you toss it a huge number of times every day, the percentage of heads won't vary very much between different days. But because the coin is biased, that percentage won't be close to 50%.
What's wrong with Philip Hammond, apart from being so boring he makes Theresa May look racy? Serious question, especially when he's up against Johnson, Gove, Rudd etc?
Kantar TNS numbers now out and they have the Tories leading with 25-34 year olds, 45-54 year olds, 55-64 year olds and the over 65s. Labour leads with 18-24s and 35-44s.
10% of 2015 Labour voters are now voting Tory and 6% of 2015 Tory voters are now voting Labour. 27% of 2015 LDs are voting Tory and 22% Labour. 46% of 2015 UKIP voters are voting Tory and 15% Labour
Survey monkey for the Sun 44 38 6 closing in from 8 lead to 6
FFS. Ever closer. We're looking at a Hung Parliament, or a very modest Tory maj.
AGAINST JEREMY BLOODY CORBYN
Calm down.
Did you see the "thinking about Brexit" clip?
Nope.
I can't actually watch Theresa May any more. It's too painful. It is, as you said, Gordon Brown all over again, right down to the eerie smiles.
In a way this is worse. Brown went down to expected defeat against a clever opponent. TMay is close to throwing away a huge landslide victory against the worst Opposition leader since Ceolwulf the Prolapsed got literally zero votes in 549AD.
Sean, I'm one of Theresa May's most trenchant critics.
Yes, she's crap, but she's up against Corbyn, ignore the VI and the Tories/May are on course for victory.
She might have blown a 25% lead, but it is likely to be a 10-15% lead for the Blues which indicates a three figure majority.
The Tories don't fanny about, if she continues to be crap, she'll be deposed before she knows it.
The Tories toppled Thatcher when she had a 100 seat majority
Ordinarily I'd agree with you, but in this case there's Brexit to consider. I can't see the Tories getting rid of her (assuming victory next week) before Brexit is done and dusted.... unless polling shows Brexit is suddenly very unpopular (and I mean 65%+ unpopular) and then we might see a 'let's not Brexit' PM appear. Personally I think that's very unlikely (in a YouGov probability way!).
If the Tories get rid of May and agree soft Brexit, half their voters if not more will move en masse to UKIP
..but they'll also gain a small number lost to the LDs, and probably to Labour right in the middle of this election, as well.
Survey monkey for the Sun 44 38 6 closing in from 8 lead to 6
FFS. Ever closer. We're looking at a Hung Parliament, or a very modest Tory maj.
AGAINST JEREMY BLOODY CORBYN
Calm down.
Did you see the "thinking about Brexit" clip?
Nope.
I can't actually watch Theresa May any more. It's too painful. It is, as you said, Gordon Brown all over again, right down to the eerie smiles.
In a way this is worse. Brown went down to expected defeat against a clever opponent. TMay is close to throwing away a huge landslide victory against the worst Opposition leader since Ceolwulf the Prolapsed got literally zero votes in 549AD.
Sean, I'm one of Theresa May's most trenchant critics.
Yes, she's crap, but she's up against Corbyn, ignore the VI and the Tories/May are on course for victory.
She might have blown a 25% lead, but it is likely to be a 10-15% lead for the Blues which indicates a three figure majority.
The Tories don't fanny about, if she continues to be crap, she'll be deposed before she knows it.
The Tories toppled Thatcher when she had a 100 seat majority
Ordinarily I'd agree with you, but in this case there's Brexit to consider. I can't see the Tories getting rid of her (assuming victory next week) before Brexit is done and dusted.... unless polling shows Brexit is suddenly very unpopular (and I mean 65%+ unpopular) and then we might see a 'let's not Brexit' PM appear. Personally I think that's very unlikely (in a YouGov probability way!).
If the Tories get rid of May and agree soft Brexit, half their voters if not more will move en masse to UKIP
But if Brexit were 65%+ unpopular I doubt CCHQ would care; it is (as demonstrated with Maggie) a pragmatic party.
Toe-curling might be the verdict from central London but remember she goes down rather well in the provincial marginals because she reminds people of themselves to a certain extent.
I don't think she is going down so well in the provinces any more. She was ridiculed on Gogglebox by all and sundry.
She's still more "popular" and trusted than Corbyn but.... eeesh.
Everyone with eyes can see that she is melting under the pressure. I fear for her health*
*which makes for another interesting parallel with the losing Hillary campaign...
Agreed there is a grimace and stare that looks uncomfortable.
I'm selling Lib/Dem seats, surely they won't get more than 12, if they stay on 9 I'll get 3.5 times stake.
I think they'll get less than 12, but the risk/reward is terribly asymmetric. You have effectively sold a call option on LibDem seats for only a small premium.
I lost quite a lot of money buying UKIP on the spreads in 2014/15.
I don't regret it in the slightest. It was a great value bet at 3/4/5 seats when they were 20%+ in the polls.
The LD's still have that *potential* premium built into their spread price. At 6-9% in the polls - and the countdown timer nearly out, buying LD seats on the spreads is a terrible bet.
Selling them looks pretty poor too.
I reckon that Ceredigion, W&L and O&S are safe. (That's three.)
Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are against Labour, and the LDs will probably be able to get anti-Corbyn tactical votes from the Conservatives. (That's five.)
Now, the remaining four are all less than good prospects for the LDs. C&W is an 80% likelihood loss, Richmond Park 75%, Southport 75%, and Norfolk North is a toss up. Let's say they hold one.
That gets you to six. And that's probably your best case selling the LDs.
There is a pretty good chance, based on last year's Holyrood elections, that they grab three from the SNP. (Edinburgh West, then choose two from NE Fife, CS&ER, East Dumbartonshire, and with an outside shot at Argyll & Bute.)
I think Twickenham is probably a gain (for reasons enumerated already).
And then you have a host of Remainia seats where tactical voting could see the LDs in. Kingston, Bath, OxWAb, Lewes, to name a few. My most likely scenario is that the LDs stand still, getting 9-11 seats. But I only see downside to 6.
What's the betting she has spent years looking at Cameron and thinking 'I could do that job'.
Now, she is realising its takes something very special to survive the pressure.
Yeah, Cameron was so good under pressure he quit within hours of the vote last June.......
It wasn't pressure, it was honour.
You lose a nation changing referendum, you have to go, your credibility is shot.
I still get confused on this. If Cameron had so much honour, why did he say he wouldn't resign if he lost? I genuinely wonder how many would have weighed up his departure before voting Leave if he had said "if I lose the Referendum, I will immediately resign...."
Survey monkey for the Sun 44 38 6 closing in from 8 lead to 6
FFS. Ever closer. We're looking at a Hung Parliament, or a very modest Tory maj.
AGAINST JEREMY BLOODY CORBYN
Calm down.
Did you see the "thinking about Brexit" clip?
Nope.
I can't actually watch Theresa May any more. It's too painful. It is, as you said, Gordon Brown all over again, right down to the eerie smiles.
In a way this is worse. Brown went down to expected defeat against a clever opponent. TMay is close to throwing away a huge landslide victory against the worst Opposition leader since Ceolwulf the Prolapsed got literally zero votes in 549AD.
Sean, I'm one of Theresa May's most trenchant critics.
Yes, she's crap, but she's up against Corbyn, ignore the VI and the Tories/May are on course for victory.
She might have blown a 25% lead, but it is likely to be a 10-15% lead for the Blues which indicates a three figure majority.
The Tories don't fanny about, if she continues to be crap, she'll be deposed before she knows it.
The Tories toppled Thatcher when she had a 100 seat majority
Ordinarily I'd agree with you, but in this case there's Brexit to consider. I can't see the Tories getting rid of her (assuming victory next week) before Brexit is done and dusted.... unless polling shows Brexit is suddenly very unpopular (and I mean 65%+ unpopular) and then we might see a 'let's not Brexit' PM appear. Personally I think that's very unlikely (in a YouGov probability way!).
If the Tories get rid of May and agree soft Brexit, half their voters if not more will move en masse to UKIP
But if Brexit were 65%+ unpopular I doubt CCHQ would care; it is (as demonstrated with Maggie) a pragmatic party.
Over half the remaining 35% would be current Tory voters, with the Tories on 43-45% or so lose them and they fall to 25-30% and UKIP jump to 20-25%, it would be political suicide. As I said before the only way soft Brexit happens now or in the future is under a Labour PM
Oh god. Just watched the Brexit TMay clip from today.
That's a panicked, tired, flailing politician, who has lost control of the narrative, and is also way out of her depth.
Jesus Christ: the Tories are genuinely worried.
I actually feel sorry for her. And for the country.
I don't feel sorry for her, not yet anyway, But I am genuinely worried.
May is a socialist, 'in the centralise all power, and put the right people in charge' modal, that see comes from a notionally right wing party is missing the point. from her anowsment that the government would decide how big people pudding would be in restraints, to stop people getting fat. Or the delay to Hinkily point nuclear power station until she personally had reviewed it. and more recently her cap on energy prises, she is the most anti freedom, authoritarian, centralising tory leader I can remember. I don't know But I suspect she tried to take personal chare of the GE campaign and not listen to run. And I recon that she thougth it could be won with lots of Facebook adverts, and not much else so no need to risk her in a TV debate where she may look stupid.
She reminds me of David Miscavige the leader of the Scientologists, An authoritarian basterd, who tried to control everything, and criticises everybody around him for the organisation shrinking rapidly. its now getting endless bad publicity but he refuses to do any media appearances himself, if there is a change he will be asked a question in public that he has not scripted then he wont do it, and that's prity close to what Teresa May is doing by not appearing at the debates.
Survey monkey for the Sun 44 38 6 closing in from 8 lead to 6
FFS. Ever closer. We're looking at a Hung Parliament, or a very modest Tory maj.
AGAINST JEREMY BLOODY CORBYN
Calm down.
Did you see the "thinking about Brexit" clip?
Nope.
I can't actually watch Theresa May any more. It's too painful. It is, as you said, Gordon Brown all over again, right down to the eerie smiles.
In a way this is worse. Brown went down to expected defeat against a clever opponent. TMay is close to throwing away a huge landslide victory against the worst Opposition leader since Ceolwulf the Prolapsed got literally zero votes in 549AD.
Sean, I'm one of Theresa May's most trenchant critics.
Yes, she's crap, but she's up against Corbyn, ignore the VI and the Tories/May are on course for victory.
She might have blown a 25% lead, but it is likely to be a 10-15% lead for the Blues which indicates a three figure majority.
The Tories don't fanny about, if she continues to be crap, she'll be deposed before she knows it.
The Tories toppled Thatcher when she had a 100 seat majority
Ordinarily I'd agree with you, but in this case there's Brexit to consider. I can't see the Tories getting rid of her (assuming victory next week) before Brexit is done and dusted.... unless polling shows Brexit is suddenly very unpopular (and I mean 65%+ unpopular) and then we might see a 'let's not Brexit' PM appear. Personally I think that's very unlikely (in a YouGov probability way!).
If the Tories get rid of May and agree soft Brexit, half their voters if not more will move en masse to UKIP
..but they'll also gain a small number lost to the LDs, and probably to Labour right in the middle of this election, as well.
They would gain zilch from those voting for Corbyn Labour, as Kantar shows they are still net gainers from Labour on 2015 votes and they have lost barely more than a few points at most to the LDs
Kantar TNS numbers now out and they have the Tories leading with 25-34 year olds, 45-54 year olds, 55-64 year olds and the over 65s. Labour leads with 18-24s and 35-44s.
10% of 2015 Labour voters are now voting Tory and 6% of 2015 Tory voters are now voting Labour. 27% of 2015 LDs are voting Tory and 22% Labour. 46% of 2015 UKIP voters are voting Tory and 15% Labour
The UKIP -to- labour one is the most interesting one there, for me.
Clearly there has been some UKIP to Labour movement but still less than half that to the Tories
The movement that there has been - and the 15% is notable in its being higher than some of those other figures for Lab/Tory travel etc, is interesting though, culturally speaking. I wonder if it could turn out to be politically important in a few seats up and down the country, too.
What's the betting she has spent years looking at Cameron and thinking 'I could do that job'.
Now, she is realising its takes something very special to survive the pressure.
Yeah, Cameron was so good under pressure he quit within hours of the vote last June.......
It wasn't pressure, it was honour.
You lose a nation changing referendum, you have to go, your credibility is shot.
I still get confused on this. If Cameron had so much honour, why did he say he wouldn't resign if he lost? I genuinely wonder how many would have weighed up his departure before voting Leave if he had said "if I lose the Referendum, I will immediately resign...."
I discussed this with one of his staff.
As per the Indyref, if he had said 'I'll quit if I lose the referendum' some non Tory voters would have voted Leave just to get rid of the Tory PM.
In 2015 the Tories polled 37% or so, Non Tories polled 63%.
There is a chance that Wills is right and she has missed an insulin shot, it which case she deserves a good deal of sympathy. But, dunno.
My ex had badly-controlled diabetes. It can be painful and scary, and it makes you sweat and faint and go pale - and she does look a bit like that, in that video.
Like I said: I feel properly sorry for her. But we need a hale and hearty and competent PM to do a decent Brexit. Sentimentality won't butter any Brussels sprouts.
By contrast Jezza is in rude health, and clearly loving it. He plays football on Cup Final morning then rocks up to Wembley to cheer with the fans. He even dresses better these days.
Is it May = Hillary, Jezza = Trump???? Surely. Not.
There is a chance that Wills is right and she has missed an insulin shot, it which case she deserves a good deal of sympathy. But, dunno.
My ex had badly-controlled diabetes. It can be painful and scary, and it makes you sweat and faint and go pale - and she does look a bit like that, in that video.
Like I said: I feel properly sorry for her. But we need a hale and hearty and competent PM to do a decent Brexit. Sentimentality won't butter any Brussels sprouts.
We don't need a hale and hearty PM, Brussels despises Boris for starters, there is nobody else, whether May or Kermit the Frog leads the British delegation Brussels won't budge on free movement and may not budge on 100 billion euros in which case hard Brexit is inevitable. If Corbyn by some miracle became PM and agreed to that UKIP would think Christmas had come early. It will take a decade for the British people to be even prepared to consider the single market again and for Brussels to listen
What's the betting she has spent years looking at Cameron and thinking 'I could do that job'.
Now, she is realising its takes something very special to survive the pressure.
Yeah, Cameron was so good under pressure he quit within hours of the vote last June.......
It wasn't pressure, it was honour.
You lose a nation changing referendum, you have to go, your credibility is shot.
I still get confused on this. If Cameron had so much honour, why did he say he wouldn't resign if he lost? I genuinely wonder how many would have weighed up his departure before voting Leave if he had said "if I lose the Referendum, I will immediately resign...."
I discussed this with one of his staff.
As per the Indyref, if he had said 'I'll quit if I lose the referendum' some non Tory voters would have voted Leave just to get rid of the Tory PM.
In 2015 the Tories polled 37% or so, Non Tories polled 63%.
Well that just shows the terrible judgement Cameron had if he had 37% for him and 63% against him. Surely Osborne, the arch strategist he is reputed to be would have advised him it was a silly thing to pledge that vote.
"Glory or ignominy for Theresa May? The polls can't decide Those who have been following the polls closely will be confused. Rest assured, those responsible for them are confused too."
Survey monkey for the Sun 44 38 6 closing in from 8 lead to 6
FFS. Ever closer. We're looking at a Hung Parliament, or a very modest Tory maj.
AGAINST JEREMY BLOODY CORBYN
The argument from his Labour opponents was he was supposed to be a vote loser. I for one believed it. If you accepted that premise their actions were justified. In the light of the evidence much less so. Not sure what I'd do if I were one of them. It's a funny old world.
What's the betting she has spent years looking at Cameron and thinking 'I could do that job'.
Now, she is realising its takes something very special to survive the pressure.
Yeah, Cameron was so good under pressure he quit within hours of the vote last June.......
It wasn't pressure, it was honour.
You lose a nation changing referendum, you have to go, your credibility is shot.
I still get confused on this. If Cameron had so much honour, why did he say he wouldn't resign if he lost? I genuinely wonder how many would have weighed up his departure before voting Leave if he had said "if I lose the Referendum, I will immediately resign...."
I discussed this with one of his staff.
As per the Indyref, if he had said 'I'll quit if I lose the referendum' some non Tory voters would have voted Leave just to get rid of the Tory PM.
In 2015 the Tories polled 37% or so, Non Tories polled 63%.
Well that just shows the terrible judgement Cameron had if he had 37% for him and 63% against him. Surely Osborne, the arch strategist he is reputed to be would have advised him it was a silly thing to pledge that vote.
It is well known Osborne advised against holding the EURef.
There is a chance that Wills is right and she has missed an insulin shot, it which case she deserves a good deal of sympathy. But, dunno.
My ex had badly-controlled diabetes. It can be painful and scary, and it makes you sweat and faint and go pale - and she does look a bit like that, in that video.
Like I said: I feel properly sorry for her. But we need a hale and hearty and competent PM to do a decent Brexit. Sentimentality won't butter any Brussels sprouts.
By contrast Jezza is in rude health, and clearly loving it. He plays football on Cup Final morning then rocks up to Wembley to cheer with the fans. He even dresses better these days.
Is it May = Hillary, Jezza = Trump???? Surely. Not.
For the umpteenth time Jezza is not Trump but Sanders and in the end Hillary saw off Sanders even if he gave her a scare
I like the idea of what YouGov have tried to do. I'm yet to be convinced by the execution of it.
Me too.
This (yougov model) has great potential.
Having a massive polling panel with detailed demographic / socioeconomic info on your panel - then figuring out which voters are changing their minds (and where they live) is the future of FPTP election polling.
By 2027, they'll be predicting the result to within a dozen or so seats.
The data will be used by campaigns to increasingly focus their campaign effort on smaller and smaller numbers of crucial swing voters they've personally identified.
Was it Asimov who wrote a short story about how the polling had become so accurate, they just selected the winner, no need to vote.
Just checked, yes, it was called Franchise.
I thought it was slightlyt different. That a single voter was chosen by a computer as being the perfect representative of the population as a whole and he would basically make all the decisions presented to him over his 4 year term.
I think they are muddling it with the Kevin Costner film where the Presidential election is tied except for 1 vote which gets to be recast for some contrived reason. So a beer swilling unemployed redneck decides the election result...
Question - looked at purely from a perspective of "what is the best approach to maximise seats" (ie. ignoring preferences for overall election outcome), would the minor parties be better off ganging up tonight on Rudd/May, or Corbyn?
Oh god. Just watched the Brexit TMay clip from today.
That's a panicked, tired, flailing politician, who has lost control of the narrative, and is also way out of her depth.
Jesus Christ: the Tories are genuinely worried.
I actually feel sorry for her. And for the country.
May combines all of the faults of Eden, Heath and Major with none of their saving graces. How has she reached such heights ?
She spent the time during the referendum doing low key campaigning. Instead of being front and leading with Cameron and Osborne. Plotting her route to the top.
Cameron was going, win or lose only the the timing was to be decided. Remain win, and she brings the party together on the not Osborne ticket. Leave wins, the not Boris ticket.
Winning is one thing, leading is altogether different.
Midpoint 368, majority 86. Don't think she'd be bothered by that.
"In retrospect it looks like not going to the event might have een a serious mistake by Mrs. May." - you'd have said exactly the same thing if she had gone. Yawnfest.
There is a chance that Wills is right and she has missed an insulin shot, it which case she deserves a good deal of sympathy. But, dunno.
My ex had badly-controlled diabetes. It can be painful and scary, and it makes you sweat and faint and go pale - and she does look a bit like that, in that video.
Like I said: I feel properly sorry for her. But we need a hale and hearty and competent PM to do a decent Brexit. Sentimentality won't butter any Brussels sprouts.
By contrast Jezza is in rude health, and clearly loving it. He plays football on Cup Final morning then rocks up to Wembley to cheer with the fans. He even dresses better these days.
Is it May = Hillary, Jezza = Trump???? Surely. Not.
I wonder how many of the PB lefties would vote Labour if they thought Corbyn's Labour could actually win.
Would you? Hand on heart, if you thought this election was on a knife-edge, would you risk a Corbyn government, with McDonnell and Abbott at his side?
That has to be the Tories' last, best hope. In the end, Corbyn and Co are too scary and mad, no matter how affable Jezbollah seems. And I reckon it will be enough. But......
Yes. Because whatever I think of Corbyn who is of course crap, I despise the Tories more. The way the vulnerable have been treated these last 7 years has been nothing short of disgraceful when at the same time the rich and powerful have been getting away with murder.
That's not the David Cameron I know, and I wouldn't trust The Express on any topic when it comes to Brexit/Cameron.
Fair enough, I have never met him and so do not know the real David Cameron. He is history now but I think he did not do a good job as PM. Just like Blair he was all polish and no substance. He has left a comparable mess to the one he inherited.
I'm selling Lib/Dem seats, surely they won't get more than 12, if they stay on 9 I'll get 3.5 times stake.
I think they'll get less than 12, but the risk/reward is terribly asymmetric. You have effectively sold a call option on LibDem seats for only a small premium.
I lost quite a lot of money buying UKIP on the spreads in 2014/15.
I don't regret it in the slightest. It was a great value bet at 3/4/5 seats when they were 20%+ in the polls.
The LD's still have that *potential* premium built into their spread price. At 6-9% in the polls - and the countdown timer nearly out, buying LD seats on the spreads is a terrible bet.
You have to remember the Golden Rule: all Smithsons always overestimate the LibDems
That's not the David Cameron I know, and I wouldn't trust The Express on any topic when it comes to Brexit/Cameron.
Fair enough, I have never met him and so do not know the real David Cameron. He is history now but I think he did not do a good job as PM. Just like Blair he was all polish and no substance. He has left a comparable mess to the one he inherited.
He inherited a £159bn deficit, don't get much more of a mess than that
Yes we have had a bad campaign, TM is useless and the manifesto is dreadful but we are clear in all polls except You*** and more importantly JackW and JohnO say we will win!
What's the betting she has spent years looking at Cameron and thinking 'I could do that job'.
Now, she is realising its takes something very special to survive the pressure.
Yeah, Cameron was so good under pressure he quit within hours of the vote last June.......
It wasn't pressure, it was honour.
You lose a nation changing referendum, you have to go, your credibility is shot.
I still get confused on this. If Cameron had so much honour, why did he say he wouldn't resign if he lost? I genuinely wonder how many would have weighed up his departure before voting Leave if he had said "if I lose the Referendum, I will immediately resign...."
I discussed this with one of his staff.
As per the Indyref, if he had said 'I'll quit if I lose the referendum' some non Tory voters would have voted Leave just to get rid of the Tory PM.
In 2015 the Tories polled 37% or so, Non Tories polled 63%.
Some voted that way anyway. It was the whole of the Labour Leave campaign "vote Leave to wipe the smile off [Cameron and Osborne's] faces". I still think more would have paused their pencil and thought "oo-er..." as they imagined the removals vans in Downing Street....
There is a chance that Wills is right and she has missed an insulin shot, it which case she deserves a good deal of sympathy. But, dunno.
My ex had badly-controlled diabetes. It can be painful and scary, and it makes you sweat and faint and go pale - and she does look a bit like that, in that video.
Like I said: I feel properly sorry for her. But we need a hale and hearty and competent PM to do a decent Brexit. Sentimentality won't butter any Brussels sprouts.
By contrast Jezza is in rude health, and clearly loving it. He plays football on Cup Final morning then rocks up to Wembley to cheer with the fans. He even dresses better these days.
Is it May = Hillary, Jezza = Trump???? Surely. Not.
I wonder how many of the PB lefties would vote Labour if they thought Corbyn's Labour could actually win.
Would you? Hand on heart, if you thought this election was on a knife-edge, would you risk a Corbyn government, with McDonnell and Abbott at his side?
That has to be the Tories' last, best hope. In the end, Corbyn and Co are too scary and mad, no matter how affable Jezbollah seems. And I reckon it will be enough. But......
Good point but if he is within range by Tuesday he can shore up the right wing of Labour support simply by making a Cabinet offer to the centrist/PLP. Indeed Paul Mason suggested this yesterday, which surprised me.
Yes we have had a bad campaign, TM is useless and the manifesto is dreadful but we are clear in all polls except You*** and more importantly JackW and JohnO say we will win!
So enjoy the debate!!
Tbf JackW didn't get the US Presidental Election nor the EU referendum right.
There's very little doubt in my mind now that the Conservatives have blown this election. I don't believe that Labour can get a majority but I certainly expect them to be the largest party now and that Jeremy Corbyn will be PM whenever the dust on this messy election has settled.
I have no wish at all to see this happen but, almost equally, no wish try to prevent it either. I'll be sticking to my decision to vote Lib Dem in my Con/Lab marginal.
Conservatives are reaching a good buy price now. I think it's time to short yougov shares as well, they will have zero credibility after next week.
They don't make money out of political polling. They make it out of market research for laundry detergents.
This will still trash their reputation.
No. It will make no difference whatsoever.
Disagree. If YouGov predict a 3% Tory lead and NOM and it turns out to be a 15% Tory lead and a 150 seat majority, then their reputation as POLITICAL pollsters will be significantly damaged. That's too big an error, on top of previous errors.
In the end you can only get away with so many howling mistakes, when accuracy of foresight is the essence of what you sell.
The larger YouGov company will no doubt survive.
My point is that political polling is publicity for them, nothing more.
Irrespective of whether their model calls this election correctly or not, they will remain the place to go for quick and dirty surveys about laundry detergent.
There is a chance that Wills is right and she has missed an insulin shot, it which case she deserves a good deal of sympathy. But, dunno.
My ex had badly-controlled diabetes. It can be painful and scary, and it makes you sweat and faint and go pale - and she does look a bit like that, in that video.
Like I said: I feel properly sorry for her. But we need a hale and hearty and competent PM to do a decent Brexit. Sentimentality won't butter any Brussels sprouts.
By contrast Jezza is in rude health, and clearly loving it. He plays football on Cup Final morning then rocks up to Wembley to cheer with the fans. He even dresses better these days.
Is it May = Hillary, Jezza = Trump???? Surely. Not.
For the umpteenth time Jezza is not Trump but Sanders and in the end Hillary saw off Sanders even if he gave her a scare
If Sanders v Clinton had been the general election, do you still think she would have won?
Yes we have had a bad campaign, TM is useless and the manifesto is dreadful but we are clear in all polls except You*** and more importantly JackW and JohnO say we will win!
Now I don't want this to seem like I having a go at you Robert - I agree with your other reasons re Twickenham - but the number of times people ** state total bollox as fact without doing two minutes of basic research or even thinking for a second if they pass the common sense test. If the LibDems had every councillor in Twickenham constituency they would control the borough of Richmond Upon Thames, but they don't.
Yes we have had a bad campaign, TM is useless and the manifesto is dreadful but we are clear in all polls except You*** and more importantly JackW and JohnO say we will win!
So enjoy the debate!!
You are right, stop the panicking fellow Tories, it's going to be ok, trust me, I'm an agent.
Interesting change of dynamic over the last week. People are now expecting Corbyn to be good at the debate this evening, perhaps to even be a star, possibly even managing to pull off a perfromance that could win the election outright.
It really is an incredible change in perception. He's gone from Albert Steptoe to JFK in a month.
Theresa May has done the complete opposite. The confidence has drained out of her and the Tory campaign. If the Tories did conspire to lose this election, there would be a swift and bloody coup of all those responsible for what could be the worst result in their history.
And losing to Corbyn would be a thousand times worse than the 1997 landslide defeat.
I'm praying that the British public keep their heads and are not seduced by Labour's free lunch.
There is a chance that Wills is right and she has missed an insulin shot, it which case she deserves a good deal of sympathy. But, dunno.
My ex had badly-controlled diabetes. It can be painful and scary, and it makes you sweat and faint and go pale - and she does look a bit like that, in that video.
Like I said: I feel properly sorry for her. But we need a hale and hearty and competent PM to do a decent Brexit. Sentimentality won't butter any Brussels sprouts.
By contrast Jezza is in rude health, and clearly loving it. He plays football on Cup Final morning then rocks up to Wembley to cheer with the fans. He even dresses better these days.
Is it May = Hillary, Jezza = Trump???? Surely. Not.
For the umpteenth time Jezza is not Trump but Sanders and in the end Hillary saw off Sanders even if he gave her a scare
yes absolutely theresa may is hiliary but corbyn is a bad version of sanders and hiliary beat sanders . Corbyn is no Trump not amongst the WWC. TM will win . she could have done so much better though if they had thought through the political ramifications of the manifesto properly
What's the betting she has spent years looking at Cameron and thinking 'I could do that job'.
Now, she is realising its takes something very special to survive the pressure.
Yeah, Cameron was so good under pressure he quit within hours of the vote last June.......
It wasn't pressure, it was honour.
You lose a nation changing referendum, you have to go, your credibility is shot.
I still get confused on this. If Cameron had so much honour, why did he say he wouldn't resign if he lost? I genuinely wonder how many would have weighed up his departure before voting Leave if he had said "if I lose the Referendum, I will immediately resign...."
I discussed this with one of his staff.
As per the Indyref, if he had said 'I'll quit if I lose the referendum' some non Tory voters would have voted Leave just to get rid of the Tory PM.
In 2015 the Tories polled 37% or so, Non Tories polled 63%.
There is a chance that Wills is right and she has missed an insulin shot, it which case she deserves a good deal of sympathy. But, dunno.
My ex had badly-controlled diabetes. It can be painful and scary, and it makes you sweat and faint and go pale - and she does look a bit like that, in that video.
Like I said: I feel properly sorry for her. But we need a hale and hearty and competent PM to do a decent Brexit. Sentimentality won't butter any Brussels sprouts.
By contrast Jezza is in rude health, and clearly loving it. He plays football on Cup Final morning then rocks up to Wembley to cheer with the fans. He even dresses better these days.
Is it May = Hillary, Jezza = Trump???? Surely. Not.
I wonder how many of the PB lefties would vote Labour if they thought Corbyn's Labour could actually win.
Would you? Hand on heart, if you thought this election was on a knife-edge, would you risk a Corbyn government, with McDonnell and Abbott at his side?
That has to be the Tories' last, best hope. In the end, Corbyn and Co are too scary and mad, no matter how affable Jezbollah seems. And I reckon it will be enough. But......
For the left, Labour is offering good, interesting things like an end to tuition fees. The Tories offer nothing. Instead for some bizarre reason they raise toxic issues like Fox Hunting that will stop any flirtation with them stone dead.
It's curious that the Tories have made no appeal to the Labour right at all. It's all UKIP guff. Maybe that's all they need.
Now I don't want this to seem like I having a go at you Robert - I agree with your other reasons re Twickenham - but the number of times people ** state total bollox as fact without doing two minutes of basic research or even thinking for a second if they pass the common sense test. If the LibDems had every councillor in Twickenham constituency they would control the borough of Richmond Upon Thames, but they don't.
** And I've done it myself once or twice.
I did wonder where that claim came from. 2010 was the real split Council election in Richmond, of course.
I feel sick with worry. The next week is going to be unbearable. The prospect of JCIPM is unthinkable, disastrous. Or DAIHS. Or, gof forbid, JMICotE. Faced with a choice of some dull, gaffe prone adults or a bunch of insane toddlers, voters are going to go for the toddlers, aren't they? I know facebook is unrepresenattaive, but my facebook is full of people I previously would never have dreamed of as hard left posting stuff from Momentum, and the Canary. I'm hoping that Yougiv has fallen victim to shenanigans, and has had big numbers of Corbynites joining the panel, and that this poll isn't real. But I'm clutching at straws.
There is a chance that Wills is right and she has missed an insulin shot, it which case she deserves a good deal of sympathy. But, dunno.
My ex had badly-controlled diabetes. It can be painful and scary, and it makes you sweat and faint and go pale - and she does look a bit like that, in that video.
Like I said: I feel properly sorry for her. But we need a hale and hearty and competent PM to do a decent Brexit. Sentimentality won't butter any Brussels sprouts.
By contrast Jezza is in rude health, and clearly loving it. He plays football on Cup Final morning then rocks up to Wembley to cheer with the fans. He even dresses better these days.
Is it May = Hillary, Jezza = Trump???? Surely. Not.
For the umpteenth time Jezza is not Trump but Sanders and in the end Hillary saw off Sanders even if he gave her a scare
yes absolutely theresa may is hiliary but corbyn is a bad version of sanders and hiliary beat sanders . Corbyn is no Trump not amongst the WWC. TM will win . she could have done so much better though if they had thought through the political ramifications of the manifesto properly
Correct, though May will do rather better with blue collar voters than Hillary did
That's not the David Cameron I know, and I wouldn't trust The Express on any topic when it comes to Brexit/Cameron.
Fair enough, I have never met him and so do not know the real David Cameron. He is history now but I think he did not do a good job as PM. Just like Blair he was all polish and no substance. He has left a comparable mess to the one he inherited.
He inherited a £159bn deficit, don't get much more of a mess than that
Blimey his old mans tax arrangements weren't as good as they were cracked up to be
Now I don't want this to seem like I having a go at you Robert - I agree with your other reasons re Twickenham - but the number of times people ** state total bollox as fact without doing two minutes of basic research or even thinking for a second if they pass the common sense test. If the LibDems had every councillor in Twickenham constituency they would control the borough of Richmond Upon Thames, but they don't.
** And I've done it myself once or twice.
I'm sorry if I got the council wrong. Somehow when I did my calculations for the Richmond Park by election I'd got the impression the LibDems held all the seats in Twickenham (against very few in Richmond Park).
There is a chance that Wills is right and she has missed an insulin shot, it which case she deserves a good deal of sympathy. But, dunno.
My ex had badly-controlled diabetes. It can be painful and scary, and it makes you sweat and faint and go pale - and she does look a bit like that, in that video.
Like I said: I feel properly sorry for her. But we need a hale and hearty and competent PM to do a decent Brexit. Sentimentality won't butter any Brussels sprouts.
By contrast Jezza is in rude health, and clearly loving it. He plays football on Cup Final morning then rocks up to Wembley to cheer with the fans. He even dresses better these days.
Is it May = Hillary, Jezza = Trump???? Surely. Not.
I wonder how many of the PB lefties would vote Labour if they thought Corbyn's Labour could actually win.
Would you? Hand on heart, if you thought this election was on a knife-edge, would you risk a Corbyn government, with McDonnell and Abbott at his side?
That has to be the Tories' last, best hope. In the end, Corbyn and Co are too scary and mad, no matter how affable Jezbollah seems. And I reckon it will be enough. But......
For the left, Labour is offering good, interesting things like an end to tuition fees. The Tories offer nothing. Instead for some bizarre reason they raise toxic issues like Fox Hunting that will stop any flirtation with them stone dead.
It's curious that the Tories have made no appeal to the Labour right at all. It's all UKIP guff. Maybe that's all they need.
No-one gives a crap about fox hunting.
It's the hubris and arrogance, symbolised by the dementia tax and U-turn, combined with the damage to Theresa May's image that has narrowed the polls.
I feel sick with worry. The next week is going to be unbearable. The prospect of JCIPM is unthinkable, disastrous. Or DAIHS. Or, gof forbid, JMICotE. Faced with a choice of some dull, gaffe prone adults or a bunch of insane toddlers, voters are going to go for the toddlers, aren't they? I know facebook is unrepresenattaive, but my facebook is full of people I previously would never have dreamed of as hard left posting stuff from Momentum, and the Canary. I'm hoping that Yougiv has fallen victim to shenanigans, and has had big numbers of Corbynites joining the panel, and that this poll isn't real. But I'm clutching at straws.
Look at the last thread. PBers have gone through the YouGov model and exposed it as pretty flawed.
In any case though, one study/poll should not cause this kind of consternation when pretty much all other pollsters are showing the Tories as having a majority.
Yes we have had a bad campaign, TM is useless and the manifesto is dreadful but we are clear in all polls except You*** and more importantly JackW and JohnO say we will win!
So enjoy the debate!!
Tbf JackW didn't get the US Presidental Election nor the EU referendum right.
Don't know how JohnO called those two.
Called the referendum correctly to almost the exact margin. Didn't post here but I thought Clinton would win. So I'm not quite omniscient.
Conservatives are reaching a good buy price now. I think it's time to short yougov shares as well, they will have zero credibility after next week.
They don't make money out of political polling. They make it out of market research for laundry detergents.
This will still trash their reputation.
No. It will make no difference whatsoever.
Disagree. If YouGov predict a 3% Tory lead and NOM and it turns out to be a 15% Tory lead and a 150 seat majority, then their reputation as POLITICAL pollsters will be significantly damaged. That's too big an error, on top of previous errors.
In the end you can only get away with so many howling mistakes, when accuracy of foresight is the essence of what you sell.
The larger YouGov company will no doubt survive.
My point is that political polling is publicity for them, nothing more.
Irrespective of whether their model calls this election correctly or not, they will remain the place to go for quick and dirty surveys about laundry detergent.
Technically speaking, it is unlikely YouGov will be incorrect - they are providing the 95% spreads that are so wide |(reflecting the uncertainty in the data) that no matter what the result, it would be within their confidence intervals.
Like others, I like the idea of microsimulating the election. It's clever and I think if the election had gone 'to plan', i.e. a stonking great big majority for the Tories, it would be interesting to see how this complex model compares to the simpler models at a constituency level. But now there is an obvious shift to Labour and the race is tighter, then the YouGov approach is under much fiercer scrutiny and it might not be the time to test-out a new approach.
In terms of the reporting of the results, I think it is a tough sell to get people to differentiate between a point-estimate and the confidence intervals around it. I work with medical statistics and getting people to understand this concept, even with training, is a challenge.
There is a chance that Wills is right and she has missed an insulin shot, it which case she deserves a good deal of sympathy. But, dunno.
My ex had badly-controlled diabetes. It can be painful and scary, and it makes you sweat and faint and go pale - and she does look a bit like that, in that video.
Like I said: I feel properly sorry for her. But we need a hale and hearty and competent PM to do a decent Brexit. Sentimentality won't butter any Brussels sprouts.
By contrast Jezza is in rude health, and clearly loving it. He plays football on Cup Final morning then rocks up to Wembley to cheer with the fans. He even dresses better these days.
Is it May = Hillary, Jezza = Trump???? Surely. Not.
For the umpteenth time Jezza is not Trump but Sanders and in the end Hillary saw off Sanders even if he gave her a scare
If Sanders v Clinton had been the general election, do you still think she would have won?
Who knows though I think Sanders may well have won enough Midwestern states to beat Trump and he is a big danger for Trump if he runs again in 2020. The fact Melenchon also polled nearly 20% in France in the first round shows the populist left is resurgent as much as the populist right, indeed in Greece they even won.
If anyone missed it, do watch the appearance of Howling Lord Hope on the Daily Politics. I love the idea of a 30 day cooling off period for general elections and a 99 p coin!
There is a chance that Wills is right and she has missed an insulin shot, it which case she deserves a good deal of sympathy. But, dunno.
My ex had badly-controlled diabetes. It can be painful and scary, and it makes you sweat and faint and go pale - and she does look a bit like that, in that video.
Like I said: I feel properly sorry for her. But we need a hale and hearty and competent PM to do a decent Brexit. Sentimentality won't butter any Brussels sprouts.
By contrast Jezza is in rude health, and clearly loving it. He plays football on Cup Final morning then rocks up to Wembley to cheer with the fans. He even dresses better these days.
Is it May = Hillary, Jezza = Trump???? Surely. Not.
I wonder how many of the PB lefties would vote Labour if they thought Corbyn's Labour could actually win.
Would you? Hand on heart, if you thought this election was on a knife-edge, would you risk a Corbyn government, with McDonnell and Abbott at his side?
That has to be the Tories' last, best hope. In the end, Corbyn and Co are too scary and mad, no matter how affable Jezbollah seems. And I reckon it will be enough. But......
Labour is offering good, interesting things like an end to tuition fees. The Tories offer nothing. Instead for some bizarre reason they raise toxic issues like Fox Hunting.
Oh, I agree. But I am also, genuinely, curious - lots of PB lefties dislike or even abhor Corbyn. I get the feeling they will hold their noses and vote for him, because they don't want a Tory landslide, safe in the knowledge Corbyn is nowhere near power.
But if they REALLY thought Corbyn was about to win, with all that means, would they vote for him? Would you?
The best we can hope for is to deprive May of an overall majority. The idea of Labour most seats is nonsensical.
What's the betting she has spent years looking at Cameron and thinking 'I could do that job'.
Now, she is realising its takes something very special to survive the pressure.
Yeah, Cameron was so good under pressure he quit within hours of the vote last June.......
It wasn't pressure, it was honour.
You lose a nation changing referendum, you have to go, your credibility is shot.
I still get confused on this. If Cameron had so much honour, why did he say he wouldn't resign if he lost? I genuinely wonder how many would have weighed up his departure before voting Leave if he had said "if I lose the Referendum, I will immediately resign...."
I discussed this with one of his staff.
As per the Indyref, if he had said 'I'll quit if I lose the referendum' some non Tory voters would have voted Leave just to get rid of the Tory PM.
In 2015 the Tories polled 37% or so, Non Tories polled 63%.
Well that just shows the terrible judgement Cameron had if he had 37% for him and 63% against him. Surely Osborne, the arch strategist he is reputed to be would have advised him it was a silly thing to pledge that vote.
It is well known Osborne advised against holding the EURef.
But, Osborne offered Tories nothing more than Blairism with lower taxes.
Just what exactly was "Conservative" about him, other than that?
Who can blame people for being seduced by Corbyn's sweeties? They've had 7 years of Conservative gut punches. Austerity surely could have been handled better than this?
Yes we have had a bad campaign, TM is useless and the manifesto is dreadful but we are clear in all polls except You*** and more importantly JackW and JohnO say we will win!
So enjoy the debate!!
Tbf JackW didn't get the US Presidental Election nor the EU referendum right.
Don't know how JohnO called those two.
Called the referendum correctly to almost the exact margin. Didn't post here but I thought Clinton would win. So I'm not quite omniscient.
Well, it looks like you're on the money re UK politics so....
That's not the David Cameron I know, and I wouldn't trust The Express on any topic when it comes to Brexit/Cameron.
Fair enough, I have never met him and so do not know the real David Cameron. He is history now but I think he did not do a good job as PM. Just like Blair he was all polish and no substance. He has left a comparable mess to the one he inherited.
He inherited a £159bn deficit, don't get much more of a mess than that
It is more a political mess that Cameron has bequeathed on the nation. I voted Tory in 2010 and in 2015 and I think he was an utter disaster. He might not have left a £159BN deficit but the actually break up of this country could still occur due to the legacy that he has left his successors.
One minute all happy about the TNS poll, the next a 6% lead sends PBers into meltdown.
To be fair I think a lot of the "panic" is being misinterpreted. What fills most people with dread is simply the thought that he could win. Not necessarily that they actually believe he could. It's the main reason why the "Tories for Corbyn" were so misguided. It's one thing believing (and maybe correctly) that he can't win. But it doesn't make elections any easier to bear.
Looked at objectively, based on the polling, this election is the most one sided since 2001. When she called it I think May would have been perfectly content with a majority of 40-50, it would have achieved what she wanted (a personal electoral mandate, an extended period to complete Brexit and a majority less vulnerable to the right of her party. It's only the prospect raised of a landslide that has changed perceptions so much.
It's the hubris and arrogance, symbolised by the dementia tax and U-turn, combined with the damage to Theresa May's image that has narrowed the polls.
Things like Fox hunting do matter. It makes you go, oh really they haven't changed a bit. "Nasty bastards. Won't touch them'
Obviously the other stuff adds to the overall impression of them being not only a bit nasty, but a bit incompetent to boot. And what's the point of someone who is both a bit nasty and rubbish?
I feel sick with worry. The next week is going to be unbearable. The prospect of JCIPM is unthinkable, disastrous. Or DAIHS. Or, gof forbid, JMICotE. Faced with a choice of some dull, gaffe prone adults or a bunch of insane toddlers, voters are going to go for the toddlers, aren't they? I know facebook is unrepresenattaive, but my facebook is full of people I previously would never have dreamed of as hard left posting stuff from Momentum, and the Canary. I'm hoping that Yougiv has fallen victim to shenanigans, and has had big numbers of Corbynites joining the panel, and that this poll isn't real. But I'm clutching at straws.
Look at the last thread. PBers have gone through the YouGov model and exposed it as pretty flawed.
In any case though, one study/poll should not cause this kind of consternation when pretty much all other pollsters are showing the Tories as having a majority.
The mere possibility is sobering though. What if it is not the model that is flawed, but the public? (Just kidding)
I performed an exhaustive sample of three people today. One traditional tory young woman, cannot stand corbyn, confident of a win. One traditional labour 40s, dislikes Corbyn, thinks Labour will get hammered but voting labour. One 30ish woman traditional labour, hugely enthusiastic about corbyn and labour's path. From this, I extrapolate that that the outcome will be 66% Lab, 33% Con. Faultless.
The stupidest person I have ever heard about might be our PM.
Of course this isn't true because McDonnell and Abbot are clearly a bit special in this respect. Nonetheless a man who is the definition of stupid might be our PM.
There is a chance that Wills is right and she has missed an insulin shot, it which case she deserves a good deal of sympathy. But, dunno.
My ex tter any Brussels sprouts.
By contrast Jezza is in rude health, and clearly loving it. He plays football on Cup Final morning then rocks up to Wembley to cheer with the fans. He even dresses better these days.
Is it May = Hillary, Jezza = Trump???? Surely. Not.
I wonder how many of the PB lefties would vote Labour if they thought Corbyn's Labour could actually win.
Would you? Hand on heart, if you thought this election was on a knife-edge, would you risk a Corbyn government, with McDonnell and Abbott at his side?
That has to be the Tories' last, best hope. In the end, Corbyn and Co are too scary and mad, no matter how affable Jezbollah seems. And I reckon it will be enough. But......
Labou nothing. Instead for some bizarre reason they raise toxic issues like Fox Hunting.
Oh, I agr the knowledge Corbyn is nowhere near power.
But if they REALLY thought Corbyn was about to win, with all that means, would they vote for him? Would you?
The best we can hope for is to deprive May of an overall majority. The idea of Labour most seats is nonsensical.
Indulge me. Imagine we get a couple of polls next Monday showing Labour with a LEAD.
Comments
If there's one member of the Rudd/Kwarteng duo who deserves to be in the cabinet, it's him.
I don't regret it in the slightest. It was a great value bet at 3/4/5 seats when they were 20%+ in the polls.
The LD's still have that *potential* premium built into their spread price. At 6-9% in the polls - and the countdown timer nearly out, buying LD seats on the spreads is a terrible bet.
I know it's not nice for Tories to have to think that the 200+ majority has escaped them, but come on.
Now, she is realising its takes something very special to survive the pressure.
So I just put the 10 most marginal Con-Lab battlegrounds into YouGov's seat estimator. The Conservatives are not ahead in any of them.
Labour are ahead in 8, 2 are toss ups. So, from Chester to Halifax, from Ilford to Enfield, Theresa May currently has no leads. Hmm. #ge2017"
Straw poll of where I was working: people beginning to think Labour could snatch this. Enough Corbyn sweeties and give-aways, and a total f-up on Dementia Tax are the cut throughs.
It's like tossing a biased coin. If you toss it a huge number of times every day, the percentage of heads won't vary very much between different days. But because the coin is biased, that percentage won't be close to 50%.
You lose a nation changing referendum, you have to go, your credibility is shot.
I reckon that Ceredigion, W&L and O&S are safe. (That's three.)
Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam are against Labour, and the LDs will probably be able to get anti-Corbyn tactical votes from the Conservatives. (That's five.)
Now, the remaining four are all less than good prospects for the LDs. C&W is an 80% likelihood loss, Richmond Park 75%, Southport 75%, and Norfolk North is a toss up. Let's say they hold one.
That gets you to six. And that's probably your best case selling the LDs.
There is a pretty good chance, based on last year's Holyrood elections, that they grab three from the SNP. (Edinburgh West, then choose two from NE Fife, CS&ER, East Dumbartonshire, and with an outside shot at Argyll & Bute.)
I think Twickenham is probably a gain (for reasons enumerated already).
And then you have a host of Remainia seats where tactical voting could see the LDs in. Kingston, Bath, OxWAb, Lewes, to name a few. My most likely scenario is that the LDs stand still, getting 9-11 seats. But I only see downside to 6.
Guffaw, no. Not at all.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/683271/David-Cameron-resign-Prime-Minister-politics-Brexit-EU-referendum
May is a socialist, 'in the centralise all power, and put the right people in charge' modal, that see comes from a notionally right wing party is missing the point. from her anowsment that the government would decide how big people pudding would be in restraints, to stop people getting fat. Or the delay to Hinkily point nuclear power station until she personally had reviewed it. and more recently her cap on energy prises, she is the most anti freedom, authoritarian, centralising tory leader I can remember. I don't know But I suspect she tried to take personal chare of the GE campaign and not listen to run. And I recon that she thougth it could be won with lots of Facebook adverts, and not much else so no need to risk her in a TV debate where she may look stupid.
She reminds me of David Miscavige the leader of the Scientologists, An authoritarian basterd, who tried to control everything, and criticises everybody around him for the organisation shrinking rapidly. its now getting endless bad publicity but he refuses to do any media appearances himself, if there is a change he will be asked a question in public that he has not scripted then he wont do it, and that's prity close to what Teresa May is doing by not appearing at the debates.
As per the Indyref, if he had said 'I'll quit if I lose the referendum' some non Tory voters would have voted Leave just to get rid of the Tory PM.
In 2015 the Tories polled 37% or so, Non Tories polled 63%.
Is it May = Hillary, Jezza = Trump???? Surely. Not.
"Glory or ignominy for Theresa May? The polls can't decide
Those who have been following the polls closely will be confused. Rest assured, those responsible for them are confused too."
http://news.sky.com/story/glory-or-ignominy-for-theresa-may-the-polls-cant-decide-10899757
Instead of being front and leading with Cameron and Osborne.
Plotting her route to the top.
Cameron was going, win or lose only the the timing was to be decided.
Remain win, and she brings the party together on the not Osborne ticket.
Leave wins, the not Boris ticket.
Winning is one thing, leading is altogether different.
"In retrospect it looks like not going to the event might have een a serious mistake by Mrs. May." - you'd have said exactly the same thing if she had gone. Yawnfest.
Vote Labour on 8th June!!!!
But, when I see clips like that. I get nervous about my bets.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/16/pms-chief-of-staff-embroiled-in-south-thanet-election-spending-row
Can the PB.COM CON please stop panicking?!
(And I have been guilty of it myself)
Yes we have had a bad campaign, TM is useless and the manifesto is dreadful but we are clear in all polls except You*** and more importantly JackW and JohnO say we will win!
So enjoy the debate!!
I wouldn't (I'm not voting Labour anyway but still).
I have no time for the Conservatives, but I cannot vote for a man who will make John McDonnell chancellor.
A Corbyn government would destroy this country.
Don't know how JohnO called those two.
I have no wish at all to see this happen but, almost equally, no wish try to prevent it either. I'll be sticking to my decision to vote Lib Dem in my Con/Lab marginal.
Irrespective of whether their model calls this election correctly or not, they will remain the place to go for quick and dirty surveys about laundry detergent.
' They have every council seat in the constituency, and won them at the height of coalition unpopularity '
Its actually 19 Con and 14 LD
http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2014/29/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_upon_Thames_London_Borough_Council_election,_2014
Now I don't want this to seem like I having a go at you Robert - I agree with your other reasons re Twickenham - but the number of times people ** state total bollox as fact without doing two minutes of basic research or even thinking for a second if they pass the common sense test. If the LibDems had every councillor in Twickenham constituency they would control the borough of Richmond Upon Thames, but they don't.
** And I've done it myself once or twice.
It really is an incredible change in perception. He's gone from Albert Steptoe to JFK in a month.
Theresa May has done the complete opposite. The confidence has drained out of her and the Tory campaign. If the Tories did conspire to lose this election, there would be a swift and bloody coup of all those responsible for what could be the worst result in their history.
And losing to Corbyn would be a thousand times worse than the 1997 landslide defeat.
I'm praying that the British public keep their heads and are not seduced by Labour's free lunch.
The Tories offer nothing. Instead for some bizarre reason they raise toxic issues like Fox Hunting that will stop any flirtation with them stone dead.
It's curious that the Tories have made no appeal to the Labour right at all. It's all UKIP guff. Maybe that's all they need.
One minute all happy about the TNS poll, the next a 6% lead sends PBers into meltdown.
I know facebook is unrepresenattaive, but my facebook is full of people I previously would never have dreamed of as hard left posting stuff from Momentum, and the Canary.
I'm hoping that Yougiv has fallen victim to shenanigans, and has had big numbers of Corbynites joining the panel, and that this poll isn't real. But I'm clutching at straws.
It's the hubris and arrogance, symbolised by the dementia tax and U-turn, combined with the damage to Theresa May's image that has narrowed the polls.
In any case though, one study/poll should not cause this kind of consternation when pretty much all other pollsters are showing the Tories as having a majority.
Like others, I like the idea of microsimulating the election. It's clever and I think if the election had gone 'to plan', i.e. a stonking great big majority for the Tories, it would be interesting to see how this complex model compares to the simpler models at a constituency level. But now there is an obvious shift to Labour and the race is tighter, then the YouGov approach is under much fiercer scrutiny and it might not be the time to test-out a new approach.
In terms of the reporting of the results, I think it is a tough sell to get people to differentiate between a point-estimate and the confidence intervals around it. I work with medical statistics and getting people to understand this concept, even with training, is a challenge.
Just what exactly was "Conservative" about him, other than that?
That could play well for the Tories.
Looked at objectively, based on the polling, this election is the most one sided since 2001. When she called it I think May would have been perfectly content with a majority of 40-50, it would have achieved what she wanted (a personal electoral mandate, an extended period to complete Brexit and a majority less vulnerable to the right of her party. It's only the prospect raised of a landslide that has changed perceptions so much.
Obviously the other stuff adds to the overall impression of them being not only a bit nasty, but a bit incompetent to boot. And what's the point of someone who is both a bit nasty and rubbish?
I performed an exhaustive sample of three people today. One traditional tory young woman, cannot stand corbyn, confident of a win. One traditional labour 40s, dislikes Corbyn, thinks Labour will get hammered but voting labour. One 30ish woman traditional labour, hugely enthusiastic about corbyn and labour's path. From this, I extrapolate that that the outcome will be 66% Lab, 33% Con. Faultless.
The stupidest person I have ever heard about might be our PM.
Of course this isn't true because McDonnell and Abbot are clearly a bit special in this respect. Nonetheless a man who is the definition of stupid might be our PM.
What on earth is going on with our society?