"The local elections will still go ahead at the start of May. It’s been a long time since that happened – in recent decades general elections have normally been held on the same day as the local elections – but it’s not unprecedented. In 1983 and 1987 the local elections were in May and the general elections followed in June. Notably they were really NOT a good predictor of the general election a month later. Comparing the Rallings & Thrasher estimates for the local elections those years with the subsequent general elections, in the 1983 local elections the Conservatives were ahead by 3 points… they won the general election the next month by 14 points. In the 1987 local elections the Conservatives were ahead by 6 points, in the general election a month later they were ahead by 11 points. In both cases the SDP-Liberal Alliance did much better in the locals than the general a month later."
What happened to TGOHF, I have yet to hear from him re whether he would back up his ridiculous mince about SNP losing more than 10 setas. I see he like most frothers is all mouth and no trousers, no backbone to back up his garbage and bet on it.
I think that it is perfectly plausible that the SNP will lose more than ten seats at this GE.
Really? Where?
I can't see any SLab gains (on the contrary, I could see them ending on a big fat zero). The Lib Dems seem stuck well down into single figures which doesn't look good for a revival. And while Con is doing better, the number of seats in play there is limited. I don't expect the SNP to drop below 50.
Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.
He is sometimes, but not always, effective. 2005 GE. London Mayor 2016. He certainly ain't stupid, and has an open goal to aim at, but he is not all-powerful.
Zac Goldsmith was f##king awful...like really really awful....he went from disaster to disaster in that campaign...in a Labour city and against an opponent that didn't make any missteps.
Indeed. Proving a good campaign manager can't rescue a poor candidate. Of course, I would surmise (even as a Labour voter) that May will be a better campaigner than Corbyn will (by some distance), but that has yet to be proved. And I realise that is straw clutching!
I don't think May will have any serious car crashes. Inspirational campaigner, absolutely not. But they will just point at the alternative swerving all over the road, crashing into every car on the road and say you want him instead.
Hence why no tv debates etc.
I don't think that will be enough to get these crazy landslides of 100+, but 50-60 majority without any trouble.
IMO it needs to be enough to ensure Corbyn and his fellow travellers are ejected from the position of power within the Labour Party for good, but not too great to give May a total blank cheque to do absolutely anything she wants.
That seems a very fair summary, which I have to agree with. Hopefully, when it all comes out in the wash, we will have a govt with a majority strong enough to negotiate Brexit (no blaming Remoaners), and an opposition strong enough to hold them to account and provide a reasonable alternative if it all goes tits up. That is my Panglossian take.
Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
Barrow is always going to be somewhat atypical, because the town makes its living building nuclear submarines. So Corbyn will always be Copeland-toxic there. Hence Woodcock tying himself up in knots - from what I can work out he wants to campaign under a Labour banner, but would resign the whip if he was the deciding vote on making Corbyn PM (and hence a Labour government).
Cambridge will presumably be affected by students having exams and (to a lesser extent some of them then leaving town?) And in any case, the correlation between Libdem success and referendum result is not that strong. Plus polling suggests Brexit is down in third place among people's priorities, which are dominated by economy and immigration.
Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.
Just downright evil possibly!
Not sure I would have him around for dinner....he might stick a dead cat on my dinner table !!!
"Bloody hell Lynton, dead cats aren't the answer to everything! Where do you even find all these things?"
While the Tories have signed up the most expensive strategist and pollster combo in the business (and clearly been working on this for a while), I wonder who Team Jezza are going to get...or are they going to rely on the dream team of Seamus and his son?
Wouldn't be surprised to hear Jezza have signed Angus Reid to do their polling ;-)
"The local elections will still go ahead at the start of May. It’s been a long time since that happened – in recent decades general elections have normally been held on the same day as the local elections – but it’s not unprecedented. In 1983 and 1987 the local elections were in May and the general elections followed in June. Notably they were really NOT a good predictor of the general election a month later. Comparing the Rallings & Thrasher estimates for the local elections those years with the subsequent general elections, in the 1983 local elections the Conservatives were ahead by 3 points… they won the general election the next month by 14 points. In the 1987 local elections the Conservatives were ahead by 6 points, in the general election a month later they were ahead by 11 points. In both cases the SDP-Liberal Alliance did much better in the locals than the general a month later."
Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.
Just downright evil possibly!
Not sure I would have him around for dinner....he might stick a dead cat on my dinner table !!!
"Bloody hell Lynton, dead cats aren't the answer to everything! Where do you even find all these things?"
No, in this election, he will substitute dead cat for Jeremy Corbyn.
Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
Barrow is always going to be somewhat atypical, because the town makes its living building nuclear submarines. So Corbyn will always be Copeland-toxic there. Hence Woodcock tying himself up in knots - from what I can work out he wants to campaign under a Labour banner, but would resign the whip if he was the deciding vote on making Corbyn PM (and hence a Labour government).
Cambridge will presumably be affected by students having exams and (to a lesser extent some of them then leaving town?) And in any case, the correlation between Libdem success and referendum result is not that strong. Plus polling suggests Brexit is down in third place among people's priorities, which are dominated by economy and immigration.
No, Brexit is the number one issue at the moment. From yesterday's YouGov:
"The local elections will still go ahead at the start of May. It’s been a long time since that happened – in recent decades general elections have normally been held on the same day as the local elections – but it’s not unprecedented. In 1983 and 1987 the local elections were in May and the general elections followed in June. Notably they were really NOT a good predictor of the general election a month later. Comparing the Rallings & Thrasher estimates for the local elections those years with the subsequent general elections, in the 1983 local elections the Conservatives were ahead by 3 points… they won the general election the next month by 14 points. In the 1987 local elections the Conservatives were ahead by 6 points, in the general election a month later they were ahead by 11 points. In both cases the SDP-Liberal Alliance did much better in the locals than the general a month later."
I suppose there are a few still on here who, like me, this will be the 4th pb.com GE campaign.
I think I found PB during the 2005 election campaign. Not sure how exactly
Bring back the smiling Gordons!
I found this site in the run-up to the 2009 Euros. I was Googling "UK opinion polls" at the time.
2010 GE for me. I had entered the workforce for the first time, but it was a job placement in the sense of 'get them off the unemployment figures' with no actual work for me to do, so I had a lot of browsing time.
Re Con target seats, I did have an internal Party discussion this evening about whether we should target Hemsworth. Issue left open for now.
David, if you don't mind me asking (similarly any other Tories in the know) - who is writing the manifesto right now? What's the process? how much power does the 1922 have?
The 1922 has no power re the manifesto. It's basically written by the leader / her appointees.
The Conservative Party is an absolute monarchy regulated by regicide (and an expectation that the leader knows the limits within which he/she can operate).
What happened to TGOHF, I have yet to hear from him re whether he would back up his ridiculous mince about SNP losing more than 10 setas. I see he like most frothers is all mouth and no trousers, no backbone to back up his garbage and bet on it.
I think that it is perfectly plausible that the SNP will lose more than ten seats at this GE.
Really? Where?
I can't see any SLab gains (on the contrary, I could see them ending on a big fat zero). The Lib Dems seem stuck well down into single figures which doesn't look good for a revival. And while Con is doing better, the number of seats in play there is limited. I don't expect the SNP to drop below 50.
Edin South will be a big SNP target, given that the Tories who lent their support to Ian Murray in 2015 are likely to return to the fold. Poss SNP gain.
The LDs only really have the resources to implement their 5 seat blitz policy, so I'd expect them to fancy their chances in Edin West, NE Fife and a couple of others. They'll be putting in the hours to try and keep Carmichael in place in O & S.
As for the Tories, they'll be looking to take Berwickshire, but may lose Mundell in Dumfries, locally there was talk of the Greens not standing to give the SNP a shot at unseating him.
Other seats possibly in play look limited - East Ren, maybe?
Re Con target seats, I did have an internal Party discussion this evening about whether we should target Hemsworth. Issue left open for now.
David, if you don't mind me asking (similarly any other Tories in the know) - who is writing the manifesto right now? What's the process? how much power does the 1922 have?
Work will have started a while ago-it is a bit like the BBC- there is always an up to date Obituary on hand in case of need and it is widely known that all 3 parties have been contingency planning for several months.
The 22 will not have specific input but will be consulted-in a"this is what we are doing -do you agree?" kind of way.
The KEY difference as pointed out by a very good friend fighting his 9th election-"this is the first time NONE of us knew the date to the election in advance"
In context - they didn't always know the specific day but the general period was clear-THIS election is genuinely out of the blue and consequently the normal manifesto writing process is out the window. This applies to all sides.
Importantly it means the Conservative Manifesto really is TM's and she will live and die on it.
Speaking to a few people tonight- we are up for it but we are not that confident of a good majority ( 40 seems to be the accepted benchmark of a decent majority) and we are very far from complacent. The feeling is that this REALLY counts and is potentially a generational changing moment.
If you put shares of 40/25 into ElectoralCalculus you get a Tory majority of 90 seats. That looks very convincing to me as a possible result.
Curtice has been banging on all day on the BBC that the Tories can't get that sort of majority, due to having no chance in Scotland and the number of ultra ultra safe Labour seats.
Voter in Barrow: "Tories are a pack of brats but they have brains. Might vote for them."
The Barrow interviews gave an extremely strong impression (and I find it hard to believe that Newsnight is spinning on behalf of the Tories) that May will pay no price at all, indeed quite the contrary, for her volte face on calling a snap election. Even the (quite possibly temporary) recovery in real wages will work in her favour.
Of course the better she does with non-traditional Tory voters, the more prospect for severe disillusion in five years' time, but that is probably of little concern to her now.
It was the same story in Dewsbury. Most people were happy with an early election.
If you put shares of 40/25 into ElectoralCalculus you get a Tory majority of 90 seats. That looks very convincing to me as a possible result.
Curtice has been banging on all day on the BBC that the Tories can't get that sort of majority, due to having no chance in Scotland and the number of ultra ultra safe Labour seats.
He's wrong.
Apart from anything else, Thatcher won a 140+ seat majority with 21 seats in Scotland, which is a 100-seat majority in Eng/Wales. Sure some seats from then are now out of reach but then others that were safe Lab then are now already in the Con pile.
But more relevantly, Brexit has changed everything. The pro-Con swing among C2DE is huge and could lead to some very unexpected results from those just looking at UNS.
It's hard to be sure because all the comments from PB.com's earliest years have been deleted/lost. But I honestly can't think of anyone who has been on PB.com longer than yours truly with the exception of OGH of course and possibly Double Carpet. David Herdson might also run me close, not sure.
If you put shares of 40/25 into ElectoralCalculus you get a Tory majority of 90 seats. That looks very convincing to me as a possible result.
Curtice has been banging on all day on the BBC that the Tories can't get that sort of majority, due to having no chance in Scotland and the number of ultra ultra safe Labour seats.
He's wrong.
Apart from anything else, Thatcher won a 140+ seat majority with 21 seats in Scotland, which is a 100-seat majority in Eng/Wales. Sure some seats from then are now out of reach but then others that were safe Lab then are now already in the Con pile.
But more relevantly, Brexit has changed everything. The pro-Con swing among C2DE is huge and could lead to some very unexpected results from those just looking at UNS.
I think one thing is for certain all those old UNS models etc are totally broken for a post-Brexit GE where one party has 80% support among the most likely to vote demographic.
With the current crazy polling, I have visions of Rod's computer models doing a little Britain and simply saying "computer says no".
Re Con target seats, I did have an internal Party discussion this evening about whether we should target Hemsworth. Issue left open for now.
David, if you don't mind me asking (similarly any other Tories in the know) - who is writing the manifesto right now? What's the process? how much power does the 1922 have?
The 1922 has no power re the manifesto. It's basically written by the leader / her appointees.
The Conservative Party is an absolute monarchy regulated by regicide (and an expectation that the leader knows the limits within which he/she can operate).
Cheers. TM has a free hand then.
I was working on the assumption TM, Nick Timothy, Fiona Hill and perhaps one or two other essentials (Hammond?) had been drafting this for months. And now they present it to the country. And there can be no dissent from the party.
F*ck me I wouldn't want to play poker with TM. She's bloody good at this politics thingy.
Re Con target seats, I did have an internal Party discussion this evening about whether we should target Hemsworth. Issue left open for now.
David, if you don't mind me asking (similarly any other Tories in the know) - who is writing the manifesto right now? What's the process? how much power does the 1922 have?
The 1922 has no power re the manifesto. It's basically written by the leader / her appointees.
The Conservative Party is an absolute monarchy regulated by regicide (and an expectation that the leader knows the limits within which he/she can operate).
Cheers. TM has a free hand then.
I was working on the assumption TM, Nick Timothy, Fiona Hill and perhaps one or two other essentials (Hammond?) had been drafting this for months. And now they present it to the country. And there can be no dissent from the party.
F*ck me I wouldn't want to play poker with TM. She's bloody good at this politics thing.
I have to say I was taken aback not so much by the announcement of a GE, but the tone...it really was like she took a massive run up and kicked Jezza so hard in the bollocks, that when asked you will be voting for a GE all he could do was cry to confirm he understood.
Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.
Still got no scruples I see. The party is targetting seats with 10k Lab maj's, whilst lying to the electorate that there's the danger of a hung parliament.
If you put shares of 40/25 into ElectoralCalculus you get a Tory majority of 90 seats. That looks very convincing to me as a possible result.
Curtice has been banging on all day on the BBC that the Tories can't get that sort of majority, due to having no chance in Scotland and the number of ultra ultra safe Labour seats.
See my earlier comments about Curtice - if there's any conceivable bad news about the Tories, he will find it and shout it from the rooftops. Unfortunately much of what he says makes sense. As a matter of interest what is his forecast GE result?
Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.
Still got no scruples I see. The party is targetting seats with 10k Lab maj's, whilst lying to the electorate that there's the danger of a hung parliament.
Well Curtice has been saying that is a possible danger* all day on the BBC and now written a column in the Sun tomorrow saying the same.
* not saying progressive alliance, but that the Tories might not improve their majority or could even go backwards if they only win by 7%.
Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.
Still got no scruples I see. The party is targetting seats with 10k Lab maj's, whilst lying to the electorate that there's the danger of a hung parliament.
Well Curtice has been saying that is a possible danger* all day on the BBC and now written a column in the Sun tomorrow saying the same.
* not saying progressive alliance, but that the Tories might not improve their majority or could even go backwards if they only win by 7%.
Good
Complacency is my biggest worry-from a conservative point of view we need to go out and campaign hard
Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.
Still got no scruples I see. The party is targetting seats with 10k Lab maj's, whilst lying to the electorate that there's the danger of a hung parliament.
Well Curtice has been saying that is a possible danger* all day on the BBC and now written a column in the Sun tomorrow saying the same.
* not saying progressive alliance, but that the Tories might not improve their majority or could even go backwards if they only win by 7%.
Good
Complacency is my biggest worry-from a conservative point of view we need to go out and campaign hard
I just want Corbyn and his fellow travellers gone. In order to achieve that it can't be too close otherwise McMao or Lewis could take over.
Has Corbyn had a bang to the head? Is he intellectually sub-normal in some way?
@paulwaugh: PLP debating how party should vote on May motion. I've been told several Lab MPs will abstain tmrw (cos same as voting against)
@paulwaugh: Corbyn tells MPs: we have to support May dissolution motion cos anything else is supporting a Tory govt. "Simple as that"
He really must be a Tory mole. Or the most stupid MP at Westminster (sorry Pete)
For once, Corbyn is right. You cannot possibly say a Tory Government is a wicked thing, crushing the poor and disabled under foot, then vote against a General Election. It may well be that it is a personal tragedy and a disaster for his party. But the response he gave was the only one open to him.
Totally agree, now how will the SNP MP block vote tomorrow? Surely they must vote for the dissolution motion, if they vote against or abstain they are in effect to voting to keep this Tory Government in power. If the SNP abstain, the Opposition parties should remind the Scottish voters in every leaflet and in every media appearance between now and the GE.
Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.
Still got no scruples I see. The party is targetting seats with 10k Lab maj's, whilst lying to the electorate that there's the danger of a hung parliament.
Well Curtice has been saying that is a possible danger* all day on the BBC and now written a column in the Sun tomorrow saying the same.
* not saying progressive alliance, but that the Tories might not improve their majority or could even go backwards if they only win by 7%.
A government in the position May's finds itself in will always play up the danger of the other guys whilst targeting deep into opposition territory. They need to keep their voters motivated. It's not unscrupulous it's just how politics works.
If you put shares of 40/25 into ElectoralCalculus you get a Tory majority of 90 seats. That looks very convincing to me as a possible result.
Curtice has been banging on all day on the BBC that the Tories can't get that sort of majority, due to having no chance in Scotland and the number of ultra ultra safe Labour seats.
See my earlier comments about Curtice - if there's any conceivable bad news about the Tories, he will find it and shout it from the rooftops. Unfortunately much of what he says makes sense. As a matter of interest what is his forecast GE result?
I think he goes out of his way never to actually make a forecast, until the exit poll is released of course.
Curtice has been banging on all day on the BBC that the Tories can't get that sort of majority, due to having no chance in Scotland and the number of ultra ultra safe Labour seats.
See my earlier comments about Curtice - if there's any conceivable bad news about the Tories, he will find it and shout it from the rooftops. Unfortunately much of what he says makes sense. As a matter of interest what is his forecast GE result?
Just a few weeks ago Sturgeon made her biggest political mistake as FM when she sprung her own suprise press announcement on the media and announced she was going to demand another Indy Ref at a time of her choosing. She was bounced into this Indy Ref position by Salmond, lets just say that anyone watching the body language of these politicians on the night of the Indy Ref should remember that revenge is often a dish best served cold.
The SNP GE result in 2016 came on the back Sturgeon's honeymoon as newly elected FM. And with the majority of the Scottish electorate who voted No thinking that the country had decided for a generation, it was their consolation prize because many voters thought they were electing the best MPs to stand up Westminster to get the best deal for Scotland as part of the UK. And just as they used to vote Labour, they thought that the SNP would do the same job. Not anymore.
The SNP bang on about evil Tories, austerity, and just about every grudge and grievance you could dream up. And yet, after years in the wilderness, the Scottish Tory brand is detoxifying faster than an icecube in a Scottish summer under this SNP Government. If you actually look at the polls in the last two years, yes the SNP are still comfortable in the lead, but that lead has been steadily declining from the heady heights of two years ago. The SNP struggled to improve their poll ratings during last years Holyrood election campaign. And they lost their majority. As for Sturgeon, she had North Korean level personal ratings, they have dropped like a stone and she trails Ruth Davidson and even occassionally Theresa May in Scottish polls. Remember Salmond's personal polling vs Iain Gray's was a better indicator of the 2011 Holyrood result than party polling.
Look to seats like mine where the SNP won the Westminster seat after gaining the Holyrood seat in 2011 because the Unionist vote split between the previous entrenched Libdem whose vote dropped, but who still retained enough of an incumbancy factor to prevent his nearest rival the Conservatives from benefitting enough to win. The voters in my Holyrood seat didn't make the same mistake twice in 2016, and the SNP MSP lost the seat after one term to the Conservatives.
It's hard to be sure because all the comments from PB.com's earliest years have been deleted/lost. But I honestly can't think of anyone who has been on PB.com longer than yours truly with the exception of OGH of course and possibly Double Carpet. David Herdson might also run me close, not sure.
I was a lurker in the really early days of PB when a handful of people posted. The site had gained a few more regular posters before I finally plucked up the courage to post, and what a wonderfully welcoming bunch. But I think I was the first regular female voter, although I later discovered that a lot of PB regulars had assumed that I was male until all the Chris's were asked to make themselves more distinctive! Well I was that rare female Scottish Tory.
She's a relatively new PM without a clear mandate. The main opposition party is led by an imbecile - a geriatric Wolfie Smith, the LDs don't give a fig for a democratic referendum result, Ukip have no point and the Greens would take us back to the 1350s.
So, who do I vote for? It doesn't really matter, it looks like babies are on the menu.
That YouGov data is replying to "Which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing the country at this time? Please tick up to three." and predates the election announcement. ICM's snap poll https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017_guardian_campaign_poll1_april18.pdf had 67% treating it as a "normal" GE and only 17% as a Brexit proxy vote, only 15% want to reverse Brexit (ceiling for LibDems?) and answers to :
"Thinking about the single issue that will concern you most when it comes to casting your vote on June 8th, which single one of the following would you say will be the most important?" 25% jobs, prices and wages 24% immigration 23% Brexit 4% Deficit 3% Crime 2% Education 2% Pensions 6% Other 10% DK
She's a relatively new PM without a clear mandate. The main opposition party is led by an imbecile - a geriatric Wolfie Smith, the LDs don't give a fig for a democratic referendum result, Ukip have no point and the Greens would take us back to the 1350s.
So, who do I vote for? It doesn't really matter, it looks like babies are on the menu.
She's a relatively new PM without a clear mandate. The main opposition party is led by an imbecile - a geriatric Wolfie Smith, the LDs don't give a fig for a democratic referendum result, Ukip have no point and the Greens would take us back to the 1350s.
So, who do I vote for? It doesn't really matter, it looks like babies are on the menu.
Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.
Still got no scruples I see. The party is targetting seats with 10k Lab maj's, whilst lying to the electorate that there's the danger of a hung parliament.
Well Curtice has been saying that is a possible danger* all day on the BBC and now written a column in the Sun tomorrow saying the same.
* not saying progressive alliance, but that the Tories might not improve their majority or could even go backwards if they only win by 7%.
Good
Complacency is my biggest worry-from a conservative point of view we need to go out and campaign hard
With a PM who plans to spend the next month hiding in the wardrobe?
It's hard to be sure because all the comments from PB.com's earliest years have been deleted/lost. But I honestly can't think of anyone who has been on PB.com longer than yours truly with the exception of OGH of course and possibly Double Carpet. David Herdson might also run me close, not sure.
I was a lurker in the really early days of PB when a handful of people posted. The site had gained a few more regular posters before I finally plucked up the courage to post, and what a wonderfully welcoming bunch. But I think I was the first regular female voter, although I later discovered that a lot of PB regulars had assumed that I was male until all the Chris's were asked to make themselves more distinctive! Well I was that rare female Scottish Tory.
And it's been great to have you. The other female poster from the early days was Snowflake
That YouGov data is replying to "Which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing the country at this time? Please tick up to three." and predates the election announcement. ICM's snap poll https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017_guardian_campaign_poll1_april18.pdf had 67% treating it as a "normal" GE and only 17% as a Brexit proxy vote, only 15% want to reverse Brexit (ceiling for LibDems?) and answers to :
"Thinking about the single issue that will concern you most when it comes to casting your vote on June 8th, which single one of the following would you say will be the most important?" 25% jobs, prices and wages 24% immigration 23% Brexit 4% Deficit 3% Crime 2% Education 2% Pensions 6% Other 10% DK
Shurely shum mishtake! Where is 109% Saving the NHS?
Does anybody think that TMay will beat Sir John Major's 1992 total of votes cast for one party, which I think still remains the highest number ever? Turnout in 92 was 78%, compared with 66% in 2015 though.
Also does anybody know the highest percentage point lead of the winner over the second placed party in modern times? If the polls are correct, the Conservatives must be likely to take that record too?
Does anybody think that TMay will beat Sir John Major's 1992 total of votes cast for one party, which I think still remains the highest number ever?
Also does anybody know the highest percentage point lead of the winner over the second placed party in modern times? If the polls are correct, the Conservatives must be likely to take that record too?
1983 is the closest parallel with the current situation and, given the collapse in Labour support, must be favourite for your second question. The gap between Tory and Labour was just short of 15%. (42% to 28%, to the nearest whole number).
As an anorak point it is worth noting that these figures include all of UK including NI, whereas most VI opinion polling excludes NI, so there is always a small discrepancy.
On your first question the current expectation seems to be for a low turnout - voter fatigue after last year's referendum, general negativity about politics, and what looks like a predictable outcome. 1992 turnout was 78% and it is hard to see that being achieved this time, On the other hand the electorate has grown since then, but not by as much. In 2015 30.7 million votes (a turnout of about 67%) were cast compared to 33.6 million in 1992. If we assume say 30 million this time (and it could easily be fewer) then to beat Major's 14 million gives the Tories (or Corbyn, or Farron) a target of around 47% of the vote.
Also IER has recently reduced the size of the total electorate, although my guess is that much of this will be duplicated entries therefore its effect on total votes cast may be much less.
I'm old enough to remember campaigning as a young conservative in the 1983 election. That was close compared to the annihilation the senile old trot and his merry bunch of nobodies will experience on June 8th.
1983 is the closest parallel with the current situation and, given the collapse in Labour support, must be favourite for your second question. The gap between Tory and Labour was just short of 15%. (42% to 28%, to the nearest whole number).
Of course it depends how one defines "modern times", but I note that wikipedia has the gap in 1931 as 25 percentage points, which must be beyond even TMay's hopes at this point!
Incidentally, I looked at the 1906 election as well and saw that the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals was only about 5%, but that produced a seat tally of 397 vs 156!
Any sensible Labour MP must be praying for a shellecking,(not including their own seat of course), for it will take the beating of all beatings to purge Labour of the rotting ebola infestation that is destroying them from within. If Corbyn loses by only 70 seats he'll see that as progress and demand the party tip further leftward. A 150 loss might be enough to boot steptoe and his fellow cretins out.
....... with £40 billion off the stock market which is not reflected in other markets shows the damage Brexit can cause at the slightest sign of instability. Stock market crashing and currency rising is what UK PLC doesn't want. Lamont and Black Wednesday looming like Beelzebub....
Could Clegg lead the General election charge against Brexit? Could this be the calling he's been waiting for his whole life? He AND his wife have been sounding mighty impressive lately. The Tories by contrast are sounding rather shrill today and if things start going wrong the Lib Dems and the Greens are the two parties who could turn this on its head.....
....... with £40 billion off the stock market which is not reflected in other markets shows the damage Brexit can cause at the slightest sign of instability. Stock market crashing and currency rising is what UK PLC doesn't want. Lamont and Black Wednesday looming like Beelzebub....
Could Clegg lead the General election charge against Brexit? Could this be the calling he's been waiting for his whole life? He and his wife have been sounding mighty impressive lately. The Tories by contrast are sounding rather shrill today and if things start going wrong the Lib Dems and the Greens are the two parties who really could turn this on its head.....
C'mon Tim.....
All stock markets fell yesterday and overnight. The FTSE was down due to the big rise in sterling. Please improve your trolling.
....... with £40 billion off the stock market which is not reflected in other markets shows the damage Brexit can cause at the slightest sign of instability. Stock market crashing and currency rising is what UK PLC doesn't want. Lamont and Black Wednesday looming like Beelzebub....
Could Clegg lead the General election charge against Brexit? Could this be the calling he's been waiting for his whole life? He and his wife have been sounding mighty impressive lately. The Tories by contrast are sounding rather shrill today and if things start going wrong the Lib Dems and the Greens are the two parties who really could turn this on its head.....
C'mon Tim.....
All stock markets fell yesterday and overnight. The FTSE was down due to the big rise in sterling. Please improve your trolling.
FTSE going up is meaningless, but FTSE going down is economic disaster!
Hopefully may will distance herself from the incendiary Erdogan-lite language of the Mail of the Sun. If she is serious about the country coming together she will, I guess.
“I’ll probably go Lib Dem,” said Caitland Shaw, a 20-year-old student who said she hadn’t voted in the referendum because “I didn’t think we would lose”. She said she’d had “misplaced faith” that the public would make the “right” choice, and liked that the Lib Dems were now fighting for remainers.
~~~
Odds on Shaw saying she didn't bother to vote come the election passeth ?
Any sensible Labour MP must be praying for a shellecking,(not including their own seat of course), for it will take the beating of all beatings to purge Labour of the rotting ebola infestation that is destroying them from within. If Corbyn loses by only 70 seats he'll see that as progress and demand the party tip further leftward. A 150 loss might be enough to boot steptoe and his fellow cretins out.
Well there is some really upbeat stuff on Labour Uncut who are clearly up for the fight... (for next Labour leader):
"Labour candidates are marching headlong into the Valley of Death"
"this is Labour’s darkest hour"
"There is no prospect of anything other than a drubbing. And everyone knows it."
"Labour’s frailties on Brexit will be brutally exposed"
"May will ask for a mandate for negotiating Brexit, the Lib Dems will oppose it, Labour will dither in the middle."
"A muddled general election campaign, culminating in a disastrous result, punctuated by a clear Lib Dem revival will provide the context for Labour’s impending leadership election."
....... with £40 billion off the stock market which is not reflected in other markets shows the damage Brexit can cause at the slightest sign of instability. Stock market crashing and currency rising is what UK PLC doesn't want. Lamont and Black Wednesday looming like Beelzebub....
Could Clegg lead the General election charge against Brexit? Could this be the calling he's been waiting for his whole life? He and his wife have been sounding mighty impressive lately. The Tories by contrast are sounding rather shrill today and if things start going wrong the Lib Dems and the Greens are the two parties who really could turn this on its head.....
C'mon Tim.....
All stock markets fell yesterday and overnight. The FTSE was down due to the big rise in sterling. Please improve your trolling.
And you think that's a good thing at a time like this?
It's hard to be sure because all the comments from PB.com's earliest years have been deleted/lost. But I honestly can't think of anyone who has been on PB.com longer than yours truly with the exception of OGH of course and possibly Double Carpet. David Herdson might also run me close, not sure.
I was a lurker in the really early days of PB when a handful of people posted. The site had gained a few more regular posters before I finally plucked up the courage to post, and what a wonderfully welcoming bunch. But I think I was the first regular female voter, although I later discovered that a lot of PB regulars had assumed that I was male until all the Chris's were asked to make themselves more distinctive! Well I was that rare female Scottish Tory.
And it's been great to have you. The other female poster from the early days was Snowflake
I recall the early days of PB ....
Contributors would change into evening wear after 7pm and powdered wigs were the norm until OGH became a major shareholder in the Belgravia Hair Centre.
Any sensible Labour MP must be praying for a shellecking,(not including their own seat of course), for it will take the beating of all beatings to purge Labour of the rotting ebola infestation that is destroying them from within. If Corbyn loses by only 70 seats he'll see that as progress and demand the party tip further leftward. A 150 loss might be enough to boot steptoe and his fellow cretins out.
Well there is some really upbeat stuff on Labour Uncut who are clearly up for the fight... (for next Labour leader):
"Labour candidates are marching headlong into the Valley of Death"
"this is Labour’s darkest hour"
"There is no prospect of anything other than a drubbing. And everyone knows it."
"Labour’s frailties on Brexit will be brutally exposed"
"May will ask for a mandate for negotiating Brexit, the Lib Dems will oppose it, Labour will dither in the middle."
"A muddled general election campaign, culminating in a disastrous result, punctuated by a clear Lib Dem revival will provide the context for Labour’s impending leadership election."
Is there any possible mechanism for ditching Corbyn before the election?
Even with a hide as thick as his he must be feeling like shit
“I’ll probably go Lib Dem,” said Caitland Shaw, a 20-year-old student who said she hadn’t voted in the referendum because “I didn’t think we would lose”. She said she’d had “misplaced faith” that the public would make the “right” choice, and liked that the Lib Dems were now fighting for remainers.
~~~
Odds on Shaw saying she didn't bother to vote come the election passeth ?
Fox jr and his girlfriend are both voting LD. Tuition fees are ancient history when aged 21, and Brexit despised. She used to be a Labour party member too!
If you put shares of 40/25 into ElectoralCalculus you get a Tory majority of 90 seats. That looks very convincing to me as a possible result.
Curtice has been banging on all day on the BBC that the Tories can't get that sort of majority, due to having no chance in Scotland and the number of ultra ultra safe Labour seats.
He may be right - that's probably the upper end of possibilities.
Any sensible Labour MP must be praying for a shellecking,(not including their own seat of course), for it will take the beating of all beatings to purge Labour of the rotting ebola infestation that is destroying them from within. If Corbyn loses by only 70 seats he'll see that as progress and demand the party tip further leftward. A 150 loss might be enough to boot steptoe and his fellow cretins out.
Well there is some really upbeat stuff on Labour Uncut who are clearly up for the fight... (for next Labour leader):
"Labour candidates are marching headlong into the Valley of Death"
"this is Labour’s darkest hour"
"There is no prospect of anything other than a drubbing. And everyone knows it."
"Labour’s frailties on Brexit will be brutally exposed"
"May will ask for a mandate for negotiating Brexit, the Lib Dems will oppose it, Labour will dither in the middle."
"A muddled general election campaign, culminating in a disastrous result, punctuated by a clear Lib Dem revival will provide the context for Labour’s impending leadership election."
The weird thing about uncut is it's usually full of the 'we are doomed and it's corbyn s fault' crowd, but every now and then they have a contributor who essentially blames the lds for the LDs having not apologised enough to be worthy allies again.
It's hard to be sure because all the comments from PB.com's earliest years have been deleted/lost. But I honestly can't think of anyone who has been on PB.com longer than yours truly with the exception of OGH of course and possibly Double Carpet. David Herdson might also run me close, not sure.
I was a lurker in the really early days of PB when a handful of people posted. The site had gained a few more regular posters before I finally plucked up the courage to post, and what a wonderfully welcoming bunch. But I think I was the first regular female voter, although I later discovered that a lot of PB regulars had assumed that I was male until all the Chris's were asked to make themselves more distinctive! Well I was that rare female Scottish Tory.
And it's been great to have you. The other female poster from the early days was Snowflake
I recall the early days of PB ....
Contributors would change into evening wear after 7pm and powdered wigs were the norm until OGH became a major shareholder in the Belgravia Hair Centre.
Happy days .....
Is your ARSE still subject to Nurse's attention? or are we going to get a glimpse?
“I’ll probably go Lib Dem,” said Caitland Shaw, a 20-year-old student who said she hadn’t voted in the referendum because “I didn’t think we would lose”. She said she’d had “misplaced faith” that the public would make the “right” choice, and liked that the Lib Dems were now fighting for remainers.
~~~
Odds on Shaw saying she didn't bother to vote come the election passeth ?
Didn't bother because she assumed she'd win. Grumble grumble, gods damned kids.
Any sensible Labour MP must be praying for a shellecking,(not including their own seat of course), for it will take the beating of all beatings to purge Labour of the rotting ebola infestation that is destroying them from within. If Corbyn loses by only 70 seats he'll see that as progress and demand the party tip further leftward. A 150 loss might be enough to boot steptoe and his fellow cretins out.
Well there is some really upbeat stuff on Labour Uncut who are clearly up for the fight... (for next Labour leader):
"Labour candidates are marching headlong into the Valley of Death"
"this is Labour’s darkest hour"
"There is no prospect of anything other than a drubbing. And everyone knows it."
"Labour’s frailties on Brexit will be brutally exposed"
"May will ask for a mandate for negotiating Brexit, the Lib Dems will oppose it, Labour will dither in the middle."
"A muddled general election campaign, culminating in a disastrous result, punctuated by a clear Lib Dem revival will provide the context for Labour’s impending leadership election."
Is there any possible mechanism for ditching Corbyn before the election?
Even with a hide as thick as his he must be feeling like shit
The only way is for Corbyn to go now is for him to resign. That will not happen. He will lead Labour to catastrophe and then seek to stay on as leader. He will be challenged and he will lose. Then the handful of Labour MPs left in the Commons can start the long, hard task of making the party relevant again. I suspect that mediocre May will be some help in this, but it will still take many, many years.
Does anybody think that TMay will beat Sir John Major's 1992 total of votes cast for one party, which I think still remains the highest number ever? Turnout in 92 was 78%, compared with 66% in 2015 though.
....... with £40 billion off the stock market which is not reflected in other markets shows the damage Brexit can cause at the slightest sign of instability. Stock market crashing and currency rising is what UK PLC doesn't want. Lamont and Black Wednesday looming like Beelzebub....
Could Clegg lead the General election charge against Brexit? Could this be the calling he's been waiting for his whole life? He and his wife have been sounding mighty impressive lately. The Tories by contrast are sounding rather shrill today and if things start going wrong the Lib Dems and the Greens are the two parties who really could turn this on its head.....
C'mon Tim.....
All stock markets fell yesterday and overnight. The FTSE was down due to the big rise in sterling. Please improve your trolling.
FTSE going up is meaningless, but FTSE going down is economic disaster!
Yesterday was simply a short term blip in response to the surprise news.
As May has argued consistently, and has been lecturing the Scots, uncertainty is a bad thing for business and the economy. The question, I guess, is the extent to which the coming long campaign will constitute uncertainty, in the eyes of the markets.
Newsnight vox pops in Barrow hilarious. Always Labour, now voting Tory because of either Brexit or Mrs May.
This is what the sense of a real Tory majority looks like. Not the ponceyboots type of 2015...
What I found remarkable about the vox pops in general on the media today was that there was no sense of a contest about the election. A Con win is practically taken for granted. That might be very dangerous for the Tories. But then again, it might be just as dangerous for Labour.
I think the Tories need to work hard to play up the threat of the chaos that would result from a hung parliament, especially some "progressive alliance" led by Corbyn.
I would be shocked if Lynton hasn't got a plan for this. He is lots of things, but he ain't stupid and extremely effective.
Still got no scruples I see. The party is targetting seats with 10k Lab maj's, whilst lying to the electorate that there's the danger of a hung parliament.
Given they are in real danger of overconfidence and complacency, from the rank and file even if leadership tries hard, that seems sensible and cautious, not a lie.
Does anybody think that TMay will beat Sir John Major's 1992 total of votes cast for one party, which I think still remains the highest number ever? Turnout in 92 was 78%, compared with 66% in 2015 though.
?
Turnout will be too low for that I think.
I agree. I can't see there being a rush to the polls.
“I’ll probably go Lib Dem,” said Caitland Shaw, a 20-year-old student who said she hadn’t voted in the referendum because “I didn’t think we would lose”. She said she’d had “misplaced faith” that the public would make the “right” choice, and liked that the Lib Dems were now fighting for remainers.
~~~
Odds on Shaw saying she didn't bother to vote come the election passeth ?
Fox jr and his girlfriend are both voting LD. Tuition fees are ancient history when aged 21, and Brexit despised. She used to be a Labour party member too!
Tuition fees and the associated loan debts both need to be reduced, an effective 9% additional tax on our brightest and best who choose to remain in the country I'm convinced is not good for the long term. But that's a debate for another day.
....... with £40 billion off the stock market which is not reflected in other markets shows the damage Brexit can cause at the slightest sign of instability. Stock market crashing and currency rising is what UK PLC doesn't want. Lamont and Black Wednesday looming like Beelzebub....
Could Clegg lead the General election charge against Brexit? Could this be the calling he's been waiting for his whole life? He and his wife have been sounding mighty impressive lately. The Tories by contrast are sounding rather shrill today and if things start going wrong the Lib Dems and the Greens are the two parties who really could turn this on its head.....
C'mon Tim.....
All stock markets fell yesterday and overnight. The FTSE was down due to the big rise in sterling. Please improve your trolling.
And you think that's a good thing at a time like this?
You're not Brenda from Bristol are you?
It's neither good or bad. Surprise news moves markets. Then things settle down as you should know.
I see guido was mocking labour for not having a campaign slogan ready to go. What is the Tory slogan? The lds I assume are going for 'open, tolerant and united', I've seen that plastered in many places these last months.
'Stability and security', as the slogan? Keep it simple.
Does anybody think that TMay will beat Sir John Major's 1992 total of votes cast for one party, which I think still remains the highest number ever? Turnout in 92 was 78%, compared with 66% in 2015 though.
?
Turnout will be too low for that I think.
I agree. I can't see there being a rush to the polls.
The Tory vote might fall a bit. How many million will Corbyn lose though
It's hard to be sure because all the comments from PB.com's earliest years have been deleted/lost. But I honestly can't think of anyone who has been on PB.com longer than yours truly with the exception of OGH of course and possibly Double Carpet. David Herdson might also run me close, not sure.
I was a lurker in the really early days of PB when a handful of people posted. The site had gained a few more regular posters before I finally plucked up the courage to post, and what a wonderfully welcoming bunch. But I think I was the first regular female voter, although I later discovered that a lot of PB regulars had assumed that I was male until all the Chris's were asked to make themselves more distinctive! Well I was that rare female Scottish Tory.
And it's been great to have you. The other female poster from the early days was Snowflake
I recall the early days of PB ....
Contributors would change into evening wear after 7pm and powdered wigs were the norm until OGH became a major shareholder in the Belgravia Hair Centre.
She's a relatively new PM without a clear mandate. The main opposition party is led by an imbecile - a geriatric Wolfie Smith, the LDs don't give a fig for a democratic referendum result, Ukip have no point and the Greens would take us back to the 1350s.
So, who do I vote for? It doesn't really matter, it looks like babies are on the menu.
Is there any possible mechanism for ditching Corbyn before the election?
There can't possibly be. Not nearly enough time for another leadership challenge. If the man himself won't fall on his own sword (and he won't,) then there are no legal means to dispose of his services.
And so, Labour faces a General Election in seven weeks in which its MPs must do the following:
1. Convince voters that they think the concept of Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister is to be welcomed, absent which why on Earth would anybody want to vote for them? This, despite the fact that at least four-fifths of the PLP is opposed to the man and everybody knows this to be true. Faced with such a hopeless position, some of Labour's MPs have thrown in the towel already and another has broken ranks and said he would never vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister - a "brave" decision given that a vote for him is essentially also a vote for his leader. 2. Given that nobody outside the Far Left thinks Labour has a snowball's chance in Hell of actually winning the election outright, convince voters in England and Wales that a minority Far Left Government in office only with the connivance of Scottish Nationalism would be a really good idea. The best of British luck with that one.
Personally, I'm overjoyed at the notion of Labour's suffering - particularly the phase of the election campaign where Corbyn and McDonnell's sympathies with the IRA and Palestinian Islamist terror movements will be brutally and repeatedly exposed in the newspapers and on national television. Inevitably Labour's die-hard supporters will deride what is to follow as a cruel smear campaign, when in fact it will merely constitute the revelation of a litany of facts that are already in the public domain, but of which many members of the public may thus far be unaware. After a few weeks of that, hopefully Labour's ceiling of support will be ground down from 30% to 25% and maybe a little bit less, resulting in a rout.
Labour's serial carelessness has already wrecked the Union, and led to the Government being faced by an unelectible, regressive Far Left Opposition at a time of great national change. Sadly it is so well-entrenched in its urban redoubts that it will continue as the second-largest party in the Commons regardless of the election result - but nonetheless it deserves to be defeated, and the greater the defeat the better.
Does anybody think that TMay will beat Sir John Major's 1992 total of votes cast for one party, which I think still remains the highest number ever? Turnout in 92 was 78%, compared with 66% in 2015 though.
?
Turnout will be too low for that I think.
I agree. I can't see there being a rush to the polls.
The Tory vote might fall a bit. How many million will Corbyn lose though
Comments
I can't see any SLab gains (on the contrary, I could see them ending on a big fat zero). The Lib Dems seem stuck well down into single figures which doesn't look good for a revival. And while Con is doing better, the number of seats in play there is limited. I don't expect the SNP to drop below 50.
Cambridge will presumably be affected by students having exams and (to a lesser extent some of them then leaving town?) And in any case, the correlation between Libdem success and referendum result is not that strong. Plus polling suggests Brexit is down in third place among people's priorities, which are dominated by economy and immigration.
Wouldn't be surprised to hear Jezza have signed Angus Reid to do their polling ;-)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_1987
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/853924757892464641
The Conservative Party is an absolute monarchy regulated by regicide (and an expectation that the leader knows the limits within which he/she can operate).
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/854478783029682176
The LDs only really have the resources to implement their 5 seat blitz policy, so I'd expect them to fancy their chances in Edin West, NE Fife and a couple of others. They'll be putting in the hours to try and keep Carmichael in place in O & S.
As for the Tories, they'll be looking to take Berwickshire, but may lose Mundell in Dumfries, locally there was talk of the Greens not standing to give the SNP a shot at unseating him.
Other seats possibly in play look limited - East Ren, maybe?
The 22 will not have specific input but will be consulted-in a"this is what we are doing -do you agree?" kind of way.
The KEY difference as pointed out by a very good friend fighting his 9th election-"this is the first time NONE of us knew the date to the election in advance"
In context - they didn't always know the specific day but the general period was clear-THIS election is genuinely out of the blue and consequently the normal manifesto writing process is out the window. This applies to all sides.
Importantly it means the Conservative Manifesto really is TM's and she will live and die on it.
Speaking to a few people tonight- we are up for it but we are not that confident of a good majority ( 40 seems to be the accepted benchmark of a decent majority) and we are very far from complacent. The feeling is that this REALLY counts and is potentially a generational changing moment.
Apart from anything else, Thatcher won a 140+ seat majority with 21 seats in Scotland, which is a 100-seat majority in Eng/Wales. Sure some seats from then are now out of reach but then others that were safe Lab then are now already in the Con pile.
But more relevantly, Brexit has changed everything. The pro-Con swing among C2DE is huge and could lead to some very unexpected results from those just looking at UNS.
With the current crazy polling, I have visions of Rod's computer models doing a little Britain and simply saying "computer says no".
I was working on the assumption TM, Nick Timothy, Fiona Hill and perhaps one or two other essentials (Hammond?) had been drafting this for months. And now they present it to the country. And there can be no dissent from the party.
F*ck me I wouldn't want to play poker with TM. She's bloody good at this politics thingy.
What? Like majune? Is that like jejune?
* not saying progressive alliance, but that the Tories might not improve their majority or could even go backwards if they only win by 7%.
Complacency is my biggest worry-from a conservative point of view we need to go out and campaign hard
T9. Islington, North London
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/the-13-unhappiest-places-to-live-in-britain-a7687486.html
Lies, all lies, I tell you...its a socialist utopia.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/18/hes-got-no-oomph-corbyn-divides-voters-in-labour-held-lancaster
Just a few weeks ago Sturgeon made her biggest political mistake as FM when she sprung her own suprise press announcement on the media and announced she was going to demand another Indy Ref at a time of her choosing. She was bounced into this Indy Ref position by Salmond, lets just say that anyone watching the body language of these politicians on the night of the Indy Ref should remember that revenge is often a dish best served cold.
The SNP GE result in 2016 came on the back Sturgeon's honeymoon as newly elected FM. And with the majority of the Scottish electorate who voted No thinking that the country had decided for a generation, it was their consolation prize because many voters thought they were electing the best MPs to stand up Westminster to get the best deal for Scotland as part of the UK. And just as they used to vote Labour, they thought that the SNP would do the same job. Not anymore.
The SNP bang on about evil Tories, austerity, and just about every grudge and grievance you could dream up. And yet, after years in the wilderness, the Scottish Tory brand is detoxifying faster than an icecube in a Scottish summer under this SNP Government. If you actually look at the polls in the last two years, yes the SNP are still comfortable in the lead, but that lead has been steadily declining from the heady heights of two years ago. The SNP struggled to improve their poll ratings during last years Holyrood election campaign. And they lost their majority. As for Sturgeon, she had North Korean level personal ratings, they have dropped like a stone and she trails Ruth Davidson and even occassionally Theresa May in Scottish polls. Remember Salmond's personal polling vs Iain Gray's was a better indicator of the 2011 Holyrood result than party polling.
Look to seats like mine where the SNP won the Westminster seat after gaining the Holyrood seat in 2011 because the Unionist vote split between the previous entrenched Libdem whose vote dropped, but who still retained enough of an incumbancy factor to prevent his nearest rival the Conservatives from benefitting enough to win. The voters in my Holyrood seat didn't make the same mistake twice in 2016, and the SNP MSP lost the seat after one term to the Conservatives.
She's a relatively new PM without a clear mandate. The main opposition party is led by an imbecile - a geriatric Wolfie Smith, the LDs don't give a fig for a democratic referendum result, Ukip have no point and the Greens would take us back to the 1350s.
So, who do I vote for? It doesn't really matter, it looks like babies are on the menu.
important issues facing the country at this time? Please tick up to three." and predates the election announcement. ICM's snap poll https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017_guardian_campaign_poll1_april18.pdf had 67% treating it as a "normal" GE and only 17% as a Brexit proxy vote, only 15% want to reverse Brexit (ceiling for LibDems?) and answers to :
"Thinking about the single issue that will concern you most when it comes to casting your vote on June 8th, which single one of the following would you say will be the most important?"
25% jobs, prices and wages
24% immigration
23% Brexit
4% Deficit
3% Crime
2% Education
2% Pensions
6% Other
10% DK
Who kidnapped Scotland?
The 1350s. After enjoying a lovely bit of Black Death, there was a blight over the land. Authority was shaken and austerity ruled. Grass was a luxury.
Perfect for the Greens to feel good about themselves.
Also does anybody know the highest percentage point lead of the winner over the second placed party in modern times? If the polls are correct, the Conservatives must be likely to take that record too?
As an anorak point it is worth noting that these figures include all of UK including NI, whereas most VI opinion polling excludes NI, so there is always a small discrepancy.
On your first question the current expectation seems to be for a low turnout - voter fatigue after last year's referendum, general negativity about politics, and what looks like a predictable outcome. 1992 turnout was 78% and it is hard to see that being achieved this time, On the other hand the electorate has grown since then, but not by as much. In 2015 30.7 million votes (a turnout of about 67%) were cast compared to 33.6 million in 1992. If we assume say 30 million this time (and it could easily be fewer) then to beat Major's 14 million gives the Tories (or Corbyn, or Farron) a target of around 47% of the vote.
Also IER has recently reduced the size of the total electorate, although my guess is that much of this will be duplicated entries therefore its effect on total votes cast may be much less.
Incidentally, I looked at the 1906 election as well and saw that the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals was only about 5%, but that produced a seat tally of 397 vs 156!
In other news......
....... with £40 billion off the stock market which is not reflected in other markets shows the damage Brexit can cause at the slightest sign of instability. Stock market crashing and currency rising is what UK PLC doesn't want. Lamont and Black Wednesday looming like Beelzebub....
Could Clegg lead the General election charge against Brexit? Could this be the calling he's been waiting for his whole life? He AND his wife have been sounding mighty impressive lately. The Tories by contrast are sounding rather shrill today and if things start going wrong the Lib Dems and the Greens are the two parties who could turn this on its head.....
C'mon Tim.....
Hopefully may will distance herself from the incendiary Erdogan-lite language of the Mail of the Sun. If she is serious about the country coming together she will, I guess.
~~~
Odds on Shaw saying she didn't bother to vote come the election passeth ?
"Labour candidates are marching headlong into the Valley of Death"
"this is Labour’s darkest hour"
"There is no prospect of anything other than a drubbing. And everyone knows it."
"Labour’s frailties on Brexit will be brutally exposed"
"May will ask for a mandate for negotiating Brexit, the Lib Dems will oppose it, Labour will dither in the middle."
"A muddled general election campaign, culminating in a disastrous result, punctuated by a clear Lib Dem revival will provide the context for Labour’s impending leadership election."
You're not Brenda from Bristol are you?
Contributors would change into evening wear after 7pm and powdered wigs were the norm until OGH became a major shareholder in the Belgravia Hair Centre.
Happy days .....
Even with a hide as thick as his he must be feeling like shit
As May has argued consistently, and has been lecturing the Scots, uncertainty is a bad thing for business and the economy. The question, I guess, is the extent to which the coming long campaign will constitute uncertainty, in the eyes of the markets.
Oh er matron ....
...............................
The ARSE Has Retired With Grace .....
She's a nice lady with substantial assets ....
Oh er matron ....
But that's a debate for another day.
'Stability and security', as the slogan? Keep it simple.
(Ilford North is an ultra marginal!)
And so, Labour faces a General Election in seven weeks in which its MPs must do the following:
1. Convince voters that they think the concept of Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister is to be welcomed, absent which why on Earth would anybody want to vote for them? This, despite the fact that at least four-fifths of the PLP is opposed to the man and everybody knows this to be true. Faced with such a hopeless position, some of Labour's MPs have thrown in the towel already and another has broken ranks and said he would never vote for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister - a "brave" decision given that a vote for him is essentially also a vote for his leader.
2. Given that nobody outside the Far Left thinks Labour has a snowball's chance in Hell of actually winning the election outright, convince voters in England and Wales that a minority Far Left Government in office only with the connivance of Scottish Nationalism would be a really good idea. The best of British luck with that one.
Personally, I'm overjoyed at the notion of Labour's suffering - particularly the phase of the election campaign where Corbyn and McDonnell's sympathies with the IRA and Palestinian Islamist terror movements will be brutally and repeatedly exposed in the newspapers and on national television. Inevitably Labour's die-hard supporters will deride what is to follow as a cruel smear campaign, when in fact it will merely constitute the revelation of a litany of facts that are already in the public domain, but of which many members of the public may thus far be unaware. After a few weeks of that, hopefully Labour's ceiling of support will be ground down from 30% to 25% and maybe a little bit less, resulting in a rout.
Labour's serial carelessness has already wrecked the Union, and led to the Government being faced by an unelectible, regressive Far Left Opposition at a time of great national change. Sadly it is so well-entrenched in its urban redoubts that it will continue as the second-largest party in the Commons regardless of the election result - but nonetheless it deserves to be defeated, and the greater the defeat the better.