» show previous quotes Oh well. I didn't realise I was dealing with an intergalactic megastar. If only I'd been told.
Are you actually saying that English voters don't count? ("Supine", really?)
I am saying they seem to favour Tories whereas in Scotland the Tories are hated and will never be in government, ergo we end up with a bunch of right wing nutjobs running Scotland even though we hugely vote against them all the time. That is not democracy , we are little more than a colony.
I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chance
Melenchon might win the French election, Le Pen won't.
I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chance
Where's Alastair Meeks when you need him to spot those early bird value bets on the GE?
Just remember, I get to see Alastair's threads before anyone else, and I get all the value on the bets before anyone else.
We need to wait for next week for the 50/1 constituency bets
Con gain all the Glasgow seats.
If only Shadsy did accumulators.
Even after the 50/1 wonderland (that i did not partake of, alas)was over the Scottish constituency market was the most generous betting market i have ever seen, even up to the eve of the election.
I wonder if Coral will offer the Scottish Tory MPs > Than the number of Pandas in Scotland bet.
I really really really really really wanted to win that bet.
It was the bet that confirmed to my colleagues that I had a gambling addiction.
I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chance
How is Corbyn going to do it?
Melenchon is ~ 5% behind getting into the top 2 in r2, and wins vs the other person most (By odds still) likely to also make r2 (Le Pen).
Corbyn is ~24 pts behind and needs to be about 4 pts in front in 50 days.
The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.
Thought that was Trump certain to lose. Oh and BREXIT
Both outcomes were handsome winners for me.
I won't be backing - less still voting for - Corbyn and his destructive henchmen.
I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chance
How is Corbyn going to do it?
Melenchon is ~ 5% behind getting into the top 2 in r2, and wins vs the other person most (By odds still) likely to also make r2 (Le Pen).
Corbyn is ~24 pts behind and needs to be about 4 pts in front in 50 days.
Massively bigger task !
Dust off the free owls policy...That should do the trick.
BBC reporting EU leaders think a UK general election will strengthen May's position and make her less liable to u-turns and if good progress is made on an exit deal from the EU point of view they will look at a trade deal with the UK perhaps earlier than expected
The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.
Thought that was Trump certain to lose. Oh and BREXIT
Both outcomes were handsome winners for me.
I won't be backing - less still voting for - Corbyn and his destructive henchmen.
I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.
Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.
I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.
Big if, that said.
I could see it, though I think 12-14% is more likely.
Given the level of Labour disarray, I could imagine the lead increasing.
The nearest parallel is Thatcher versus Foot (in terms of Labour disarray).
What happened in that election? I think the campaign increased the Tory lead.
No SDP this time.
True, the Thatcher/Foot election was unusual in that respect.
I do remember that election. I remember thinking Foot went to down to his defeat gracefully. And I remember thinking that was all the more impressive, because the Labour organisation and campaign was a shambles, and it was obvious to all that he was going down to a terrible defeat.
But, even though Foot behaved gracefully, I think the campaign increased the Tory lead. The shambolic campaign simply disheartened Labour supporters & voters.
I don’t know what will happen this time (and I certainly don’t want a 100+ Tory majority). But, I think it is quite possible that the campaign may increase the Tory lead.
Agreed. He was trapped by his - and his party's - inflamed rhetoric. "The Tories eat babies! - but we want the baby eating to continue while we are having an internal debate about reselections"
Not very sellable. Labour have no choice but to agree to an election.
What? Since when did being consistent become an attribute of Corbynism? Surely the whole cult depends on not questioning anything the glorious leader says no matter how barking it is? History exists only for rewriting!!!
Its meant to be an attribute of Corbyn, who's appeal boils down to being 'different' from other politicians, and utterly consistent in his principles.
Well then, he would have been better keeping the govt on a small majority where he might stand a chance of defeating them as opposed to trying to defeat them on 50 or 60+ majorities were they can simply pass any policy they like whilst Labour stand by watching helplessly.
The man's a fool.
Sure... he'd prefer for there NOT to be an election. That's totally different from voting against there being one when the motion is pit before Parliament.
Again, you just can't say the Government is killing the poor and sick, then say they ought to do it for three more years. It's an offer you can't refuse, however much you'd love to.
He could also say "If the Tories WANT an election, it is my job to oppose that and say NO"
As has been rehearsed on here many times, it is impossible for an opposition to refuse the opportunity for a GE. There is simply no credible line to take against it.
You are right but how was the FTPA ever supposed to work?
The FPTA was a brilliant idea, except it had one eensy teensy weensy flaw, it never prepared for the possibility of a majority government between 2010 and 2020.
BBC reporting EU leaders think a UK general election will strengthen May's position and make her less liable to u-turns and if good progress is made on an exit deal from the EU point of view they will look at a trade deal with the UK perhaps earlier than expected
The Irish, Dutch and Danish PMs have a 'we want a comprehensive free trade deal with the UK ' bloc planning meeting scheduled for Friday.
What's a good guess at turnout I wonder? How motivated will the less certain Tories be when they look certain to win anyway? Will disenchanted Lab voters stay home?
It was 66.4% in 2015, with Corbyn unpopular, UKIP seemingly with little to motivate people with, and (though they back doing it) some voter fatigue, 60-65 has to be the likely winner?
Agreed. He was trapped by his - and his party's - inflamed rhetoric. "The Tories eat babies! - but we want the baby eating to continue while we are having an internal debate about reselections"
Not very sellable. Labour have no choice but to agree to an election.
What? Since when did being consistent become an attribute of Corbynism? Surely the whole cult depends on not questioning anything the glorious leader says no matter how barking it is? History exists only for rewriting!!!
Its meant to be an attribute of Corbyn, who's appeal boils down to being 'different' from other politicians, and utterly consistent in his principles.
Well then, he would have been better keeping the govt on a small majority where he might stand a chance of defeating them as opposed to trying to defeat them on 50 or 60+ majorities were they can simply pass any policy they like whilst Labour stand by watching helplessly.
The man's a fool.
Sure... he'd prefer for there NOT to be an election. That's totally different from voting against there being one when the motion is pit before Parliament.
Again, you just can't say the Government is killing the poor and sick, then say they ought to do it for three more years. It's an offer you can't refuse, however much you'd love to.
He could also say "If the Tories WANT an election, it is my job to oppose that and say NO"
As has been rehearsed on here many times, it is impossible for an opposition to refuse the opportunity for a GE. There is simply no credible line to take against it.
You are right but how was the FTPA ever supposed to work?
The FPTA was a brilliant idea, except it had one eensy teensy weensy flaw, it never prepared for the possibility of a majority government between 2010 and 2020.
I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
Isn't French productivity significantly better than our own?
BBC reporting EU leaders think a UK general election will strengthen May's position and make her less liable to u-turns and if good progress is made on an exit deal from the EU point of view they will look at a trade deal with the UK perhaps earlier than expected
The Irish, Dutch and Danish PMs have a 'we want a comprehensive free trade deal with the UK ' bloc planning meeting scheduled for Friday.
I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
Isn't French productivity significantly better than our own?
No, we have done this, that stat is rubbish.
Regardless the French have a serious problem with their labour laws, even hollande realised that.
I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.
Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.
I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.
Big if, that said.
I could see it, though I think 12-14% is more likely.
Given the level of Labour disarray, I could imagine the lead increasing.
The nearest parallel is Thatcher versus Foot (in terms of Labour disarray).
What happened in that election? I think the campaign increased the Tory lead.
No SDP this time.
True, the Thatcher/Foot election was unusual in that respect.
I do remember that election. I remember thinking Foot went to down to his defeat gracefully. And I remember thinking that was all the more impressive, because the Labour organisation and campaign was a shambles, and it was obvious to all that he was going down to a terrible defeat.
But, even though Foot behaved gracefully, I think the campaign increased the Tory lead. The shambolic campaign simply disheartened Labour supporters & voters.
I don’t know what will happen this time (and I certainly don’t want a 100+ Tory majority). But, I think it is quite possible that the campaign may increase the Tory lead.
The Tory voteshare in1983 was 1.5% down from 1979, the reason Foot lost eas that Labour's share dropped even further. Thats FPTP, but even in her heyday there was a swing against Maggie.
Oh yes, I forgot if we don't renounce everything we ever believed in - like a Reformation heretic - then we're enemies of the people these days. This is why the LDs will make a huge comeback.
I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
Isn't French productivity significantly better than our own?
Oh yes, I forgot if we don't renounce everything we ever believed in - like a Reformation heretic - then we're enemies of the people these days. This is why the LDs will make a huge comeback.
Any chance that'll turn a few Tory votes red or yellow? Jesus Christ. I'd be more on board with giving May a free hand if it was not like joining a bloody cult which will beat you if you try to deviate the way the papers make it look.
And why emphasise the Lords bit? They didn't block Brexit, and stressing the 'unelected' bit suggests that itself is a problem, and May intends to abolish them.
The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.
Thought that was Trump certain to lose. Oh and BREXIT
Both outcomes were handsome winners for me.
I won't be backing - less still voting for - Corbyn and his destructive henchmen.
Any chance that'll turn a few Tory votes red or yellow? Jesus christ.
And why emphasise the Lords bit? They didn't block Brexit, and stressing the 'unelected' bit suggests that itself is a problem, and May intends to abolish them.
The unelected Mrs May complaining about the unelected Lords did break my irony meter.
I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.
How many do you think she'll get?
I reckon the LDs will be up to the 50s territory again. All depends on how poorly Corbyn does but I can't see many more that about 340 Tories.
I certainly wouldn't go that high for the LibDems but 8/1 from Laddies for them to win between 30 - 39 seats looks pretty fair value, assuming they were to win around 10-14 seats from the Tories and around 8-12 from Labour +the nine seats they already have = ~31 seats .... kerching! Quite a big ask, but then 8/1 is quite a big price.
They discuss a lot of things, but if they had no balls to do it before, what benefit now? It wouldn't work, and would just give the man an excuse. Who are these mythical MPs who text Dan Hodges about every thought that crosses through their skulls?
Oh yes, I forgot if we don't renounce everything we ever believed in - like a Reformation heretic - then we're enemies of the people these days. This is why the LDs will make a huge comeback.
Not sure many would-be LDs read the Mail.
No sentient being with more than 2 brain cells reads the Mail, but poisonous headlines like this certainly fires them up.
sources said that Mrs May had "run the numbers" and carefully analysed the party's internal polling, which is likely to have been carried out by Mr Crosby's organisation.
I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chance
Melenchon might win the French election, Le Pen won't.
Le Pen might but she needs Fillon to get through and then suffer a further embarrassment.
The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.
Thought that was Trump certain to lose. Oh and BREXIT
Both outcomes were handsome winners for me.
I won't be backing - less still voting for - Corbyn and his destructive henchmen.
Shame on you.
Er, why?
You're not supposed to move on from a party just because it no longer supports you, your values or what you perceive as the wider needs of society?
Any chance that'll turn a few Tory votes red or yellow? Jesus christ.
And why emphasise the Lords bit? They didn't block Brexit, and stressing the 'unelected' bit suggests that itself is a problem, and May intends to abolish them.
The unelected Mrs May complaining about the unelected Lords did break my irony meter.
She is an elected MP, and nobody bothered standing against her after Loathsome dropped out.
I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
Isn't French productivity significantly better than our own?
No, we have done this, that stat is rubbish.
Regardless the French have a serious problem with their labour laws, even hollande realised that.
LOL - I purchased a hotel in France a while back.
The advice I was given, don't take on any of the staff as otherwise you will never be able to be rid of them.
We've talked a lot about potential LD gains from Con, but what about from Labour? From memory they lost approx 20 seats to Labour in 2015. Can some of these be won back?
Possibilities are Cambridge, Burnley, Bermondsey, B'ham Yardley.
Jess may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but she's quickly become very popular and I doubt even Hemming could dislodge her.
There are plenty of UKIP and Tory voters in the constituency who might vote tactically.
I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.
How many do you think she'll get?
I reckon the LDs will be up to the 50s territory again. All depends on how poorly Corbyn does but I can't see many more that about 340 Tories.
I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.
I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).
I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
Are you mad. Cambridge with it's Leave majority is a nailed on LD gain.
Jesus Christ, don’t you understand how the game is played?
The Labour MP in Cambridge is a prominent & enthusiastic Remainer. Whatever Corbyn says, Dan Zeichner will say "Let me be clear. When the vote on the EU comes before Parliament, my vote will reflect the overwhelming result in Cambridge – to REMAIN."
The Cambridge electorate will be presented with a Red Remainer and an Orange Remainer.
If the local election results are any guide, the Red Remainer will win.
Oh yes, I forgot if we don't renounce everything we ever believed in - like a Reformation heretic - then we're enemies of the people these days. This is why the LDs will make a huge comeback.
sources said that Mrs May had "run the numbers" and carefully analysed the party's internal polling, which is likely to have been carried out by Mr Crosby's organisation.
A lot hinges on how successfully they hammer Corbyn's Labour. If they deliver an absolute knock-out blow early in the campaign, it might leave a vacuum that the Lib Dems can grow into, and go into polling day as the clear challengers.
» show previous quotes Oh well. I didn't realise I was dealing with an intergalactic megastar. If only I'd been told.
Are you actually saying that English voters don't count? ("Supine", really?)
I am saying they seem to favour Tories whereas in Scotland the Tories are hated and will never be in government, ergo we end up with a bunch of right wing nutjobs running Scotland even though we hugely vote against them all the time. That is not democracy , we are little more than a colony.
Well, these headlines should certainly scare the bejeezes out of wavering Labour voters - 7 weeks of headlines like that might do more to get out the vote to avoid annihilation than an amount of pleading from Comrade Corbyn. Wanting him to lose badly to save the party is one thing, but being killed off?
What bet May stumbles in PMQs tomorrow? I feel like Corbyn, who is pretty terrible, is made for one perfect moment of being underestimated and in that instant landing an unexpected blow.
I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.
Depends what she is expecting... Sure she will be happy with 50-60 seat majority.
I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
Curtice on R4 said that although they are on 20%-odd lead now, if that gets down to 7-8% they are back at a dozen seat majority.
Big if, that said.
There's no one on God's earth more capable than Curtice of turning a good number for the Tories into a bad one ..... he leaves OGH absolutely standingl!
3) Corbynista hard left? Meet the voters… what is potentially so delicious about this election is that these malicious muppets in the far left leadership have been for decades strutting about as though if only they get their turn they will sweep the board. They have been exposed as total duds. Now, we are about to watch them attempt to run a general election campaign with a media hungry to see what happens. Corbyn deserves this early election. He is not a nice man at all. He is a friend of the IRA and a far-left loon who would bankrupt the country.
The Sun and Daily Mail seem to think this election will ward off the difficult Tory REMAINERS, not the Tory right. Is she going to campaign like she wants a hard Brexit and then switch down the line?
I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.
How many do you think she'll get?
I reckon the LDs will be up to the 50s territory again. All depends on how poorly Corbyn does but I can't see many more that about 340 Tories.
I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.
I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).
I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
Are you mad. Cambridge with it's Leave majority is a nailed on LD gain.
Jesus Christ, don’t you understand how the game is played?
The Labour MP in Cambridge is a prominent & enthusiastic Remainer. Whatever Corbyn says, Dan Zeichner will say "Let me be clear. When the vote on the EU comes before Parliament, my vote will reflect the overwhelming result in Cambridge – to REMAIN."
The Cambridge electorate will be presented with a Red Remainer and an Orange Remainer.
If the local election results are any guide, the Red Remainer will win.
The one flaw with this is Labour remainers who still voted to trigger A50. That can be used against them by LDs (although I think Zeichner himself voted against A50 too so Cambridge specifically is probably safe)
The Sun and Daily Mail seem to think this election will ward off the difficult Tory REMAINERS, not the Tory right. Is she going to campaign like she wants a hard Brexit and then disappoint these same people down the line?
At every point in the process the PBeratti have read the least Leave into everything. Today is a case in point...
My prediction is that P|aid will take the Rhondda.
They took it at the Welsh Assembly elections. The Labour MP is Chris Bryant, who is not well-matched to the constituency. He may even be up against Leanne Wood.
I think the Tories will take 4 seats in the North East, all very similar demographically with low thousand majorities and large Ukip votes (Alyn & Deeside, Delyn, Wrexham and Clwyd S). This is a heavy Leave-voting area. If the Tories take one, then they’ll take all four.
I think Labour will also lose Bridgend, Ynys Mon, and perhaps one of the Newport seats.
So, I’d reckon in Wales, PC +2, Tories +5 or 6, Labour - 7 or 8.
I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.
How many do you think she'll get?
I reckon the LDs will be up to the 50s territory again. All depends on how poorly Corbyn does but I can't see many more that about 340 Tories.
I reckon they won’t. This site is peopled with LibDem fantasists.
I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).
I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
Are you mad. Cambridge with it's Leave majority is a nailed on LD gain.
Jesus Christ, don’t you understand how the game is played?
The Labour MP in Cambridge is a prominent & enthusiastic Remainer. Whatever Corbyn says, Dan Zeichner will say "Let me be clear. When the vote on the EU comes before Parliament, my vote will reflect the overwhelming result in Cambridge – to REMAIN."
The Cambridge electorate will be presented with a Red Remainer and an Orange Remainer.
If the local election results are any guide, the Red Remainer will win.
The Sun and Daily Mail seem to think this election will ward off the difficult Tory REMAINERS, not the Tory right. Is she going to campaign like she wants a hard Brexit and then disappoint these same people down the line?
The Sun and Mail are trying to create their own narrative for their own purposes, they are wrong. May was facing next to no pressure from the Remain side anyway. They all voted for A50 and defend her in public. A couple of golden oldies like Heseltine didn't scare her into an election. The right of the tory party are still far more bastardy even now, and the press themselves have been dragging her towards hard brexit. She can win a majority over Labour even if she explicitly said she wanted a soft brexit (she won't of course), so she is doing this to get the 'brexit-ultras' off her back, not the 'remoaners'.
Comments
* Let's not forget he had a total car crash interview only this morning.
Omnium said:
» show previous quotes
Oh well. I didn't realise I was dealing with an intergalactic megastar. If only I'd been told.
Are you actually saying that English voters don't count? ("Supine", really?)
I am saying they seem to favour Tories whereas in Scotland the Tories are hated and will never be in government, ergo we end up with a bunch of right wing nutjobs running Scotland even though we hugely vote against them all the time. That is not democracy , we are little more than a colony.
I really really really really really wanted to win that bet.
It was the bet that confirmed to my colleagues that I had a gambling addiction.
Perhaps given a possible shortage of barrisatas there are opportunities there.
Corbyn is ~24 pts behind and needs to be about 4 pts in front in 50 days.
Massively bigger task !
I won't be backing - less still voting for - Corbyn and his destructive henchmen.
The right will clock up 52-55% - split between two parties.
The left will clock up 45%-48% - split between five.
Brexit betrayal is the only narrative that will eat into the Tory vote.
They are ahead on competence, the economy, the leader and most policy areas.
Now Corbyn may be unable to govern effectively if that happens but I can't imagine LD or SNP supporting Con.
If Con are more than 10 seats short they are surely out of power.
I do remember that election. I remember thinking Foot went to down to his defeat gracefully.
And I remember thinking that was all the more impressive, because the Labour organisation and campaign was a shambles, and it was obvious to all that he was going down to a terrible defeat.
But, even though Foot behaved gracefully, I think the campaign increased the Tory lead. The shambolic campaign simply disheartened Labour supporters & voters.
I don’t know what will happen this time (and I certainly don’t want a 100+ Tory majority). But, I think it is quite possible that the campaign may increase the Tory lead.
Perhaps TSE could do a post on it......
It was 66.4% in 2015, with Corbyn unpopular, UKIP seemingly with little to motivate people with, and (though they back doing it) some voter fatigue, 60-65 has to be the likely winner?
These media people seem to live in a different world, cohabited by luvvies.
Still, it's a nice way of getting a few hundred extra quid in your pocket for supporting the democratic process as a volunteer.
Regardless the French have a serious problem with their labour laws, even hollande realised that.
I think the LDs will take zero seats from Labour ( I am not convinced that any of Yardley, Bermondsey, Burnley or even Cambridge will actually fall).
I think the LDs may take 5-10 from the Tories, and possibly regain 1 or 2 of their Scottish redoubts.
BTW, remember the AV referendum?
No 2 AV 68%
Yes 2 AV 32%
Initial, no evidence, gut feeling, not bothering to make them add up yet, predictions:
CON 380-405
LAB 190-200
SNP 54-55
LD 12-15
NI - who cares, it's its own thing.
And why emphasise the Lords bit? They didn't block Brexit, and stressing the 'unelected' bit suggests that itself is a problem, and May intends to abolish them.
Just saying..........
Perth and Perthshire N is a nailed on Con gain
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/sir-lynton-crosby-play-key-role-theresa-mays-general-election/
People are forgetting just how entrenched so many MPs are. It takes a Scotland shift to move most of them.
The advice I was given, don't take on any of the staff as otherwise you will never be able to be rid of them.
The Labour MP in Cambridge is a prominent & enthusiastic Remainer. Whatever Corbyn says, Dan Zeichner will say "Let me be clear. When the vote on the EU comes before Parliament, my vote will reflect the overwhelming result in Cambridge – to REMAIN."
The Cambridge electorate will be presented with a Red Remainer and an Orange Remainer.
If the local election results are any guide, the Red Remainer will win.
I particularly liked
3) Corbynista hard left? Meet the voters… what is potentially so delicious about this election is that these malicious muppets in the far left leadership have been for decades strutting about as though if only they get their turn they will sweep the board. They have been exposed as total duds. Now, we are about to watch them attempt to run a general election campaign with a media hungry to see what happens. Corbyn deserves this early election. He is not a nice man at all. He is a friend of the IRA and a far-left loon who would bankrupt the country.
Con Gain Bolsover?
They took it at the Welsh Assembly elections. The Labour MP is Chris Bryant, who is not well-matched to the constituency. He may even be up against Leanne Wood.
I think the Tories will take 4 seats in the North East, all very similar demographically with low thousand majorities and large Ukip votes (Alyn & Deeside, Delyn, Wrexham and Clwyd S). This is a heavy Leave-voting area. If the Tories take one, then they’ll take all four.
I think Labour will also lose Bridgend, Ynys Mon, and perhaps one of the Newport seats.
So, I’d reckon in Wales, PC +2, Tories +5 or 6, Labour - 7 or 8.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/18/the-guardian-view-on-the-2017-general-election-a-poll-that-britain-does-not-need?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other