If Labour were to vote against an election that had been announced and seek to perpetuate three more years of Tory majority rule instead then they could be polling single figures within a month.
As has been rehearsed on here many times, it is impossible for an opposition to refuse the opportunity for a GE. There is simply no credible line to take against it.
Maybe not before, but now the FTPA gives an option. Simply do nothing. If May wants an election let her get it organised - it is her problem. Failing that there is Spring 2020 which is when the next one is due.
Nah. The opposition is, or should be, the next government in waiting. It simply subverts the very essence of British politics, even with Jezza in charge of Lab, for an opposition to pass up the opportunity to oust the government.
Indeed. An Opposition refusing a chance to take power is an Opposition that simultaneously believes 1. everything bad it says about the government is exaggerated nonsense, and 2. it, the Opposition, is so shit it can't possibly win.
No Opposition can ever say this. So it turns out the FTPA is anything but.
It was designed for a particular time and set of circumstances, that time being 2010 and those circumstances being having to entice the LDs into coalition.
Agreed. He was trapped by his - and his party's - inflamed rhetoric. "The Tories eat babies! - but we want the baby eating to continue while we are having an internal debate about reselections"
Not very sellable. Labour have no choice but to agree to an election.
What? Since when did being consistent become an attribute of Corbynism? Surely the whole cult depends on not questioning anything the glorious leader says no matter how barking it is? History exists only for rewriting!!!
Its meant to be an attribute of Corbyn, who's appeal boils down to being 'different' from other politicians, and utterly consistent in his principles.
Well then, he would have been better keeping the govt on a small majority where he might stand a chance of defeating them as opposed to trying to defeat them on 50 or 60+ majorities were they can simply pass any policy they like whilst Labour stand by watching helplessly.
The man's a fool.
Sure... he'd prefer for there NOT to be an election. That's totally different from voting against there being one when the motion is pit before Parliament.
Again, you just can't say the Government is killing the poor and sick, then say they ought to do it for three more years. It's an offer you can't refuse, however much you'd love to.
He could also say "If the Tories WANT an election, it is my job to oppose that and say NO"
It's the Opposition's job to REPLACE the Government, not to oppose the only possible event that can allow them to replace the Government!
I know Corbyn is a ludicrous chap in so many ways, but even he couldn't pull that line off.
Indeed. It would make the remaining three years of this parliament (even more of) an impossibility for him. Thrown back in his face over and over.
Politics is a rough game and Corbyn seems to have a thick enough hide.
Fixed it for you:
Politics is a rough game and Corbyn seems to be thick enough
Interesting that most of us are expecting some LD gains from the Tories when in the national opinion polls there's a swing from LD to Con.
Differential swing.
Its the widespread view than in wwcland there's going to be a big increase for the Conservatives with the LibDems stagnant while in a few posh constituencies the LibDems increase with the Conservatives stagnant.
Carshalton might well be at risk for the LibDems even in they do well in Twickenham etc.
And Southport might be interesting - or won on under 30% of the vote.
Exactly. This election surely means a Soft-ISH Brexit. I don't understand why Remainers are so gloomy (apart from those who are adamant eu-Federalists, or those who seriously thought the vote could be reversed)
I think those are the only remainers gloomy by this. I think it's definitely increased the likelihood of a softish brexit. It also removes Corbyn from the picture sooner rather than later. All pretty good. Plus, a Tory landslide is priced in at this point so it won't be a shock horror election like 2015.
We've talked a lot about potential LD gains from Con, but what about from Labour? From memory they lost approx 20 seats to Labour in 2015. Can some of these be won back?
Possibilities are Cambridge, Burnley, Bermondsey, B'ham Yardley.
Interesting that most of us are expecting some LD gains from the Tories when in the national opinion polls there's a swing from LD to Con.
Most of it appears to be on the back of an assumption that the Brexit vote will guide votes in June.
The ICM implies that London, the North and Scotland is where a fifth of Remainers will act that way. It also implies that it will be younger Remainers who choose this way.
I'd say Scotland was mainly a write off as the SNP have that sewn up, while the North is likely to be uni-heavy constituencies. London will have the odd Tory pocket in the SW but also the affluent parts of inner London that sit alongside largely BAME social housing areas.
I see the Lib Dems largely fighting for the same pool of voters as Labour/SNP/Greens more than disgruntled europhile Tories.
We've talked a lot about potential LD gains from Con, but what about from Labour? From memory they lost approx 20 seats to Labour in 2015. Can some of these be won back?
This is all in the context of Cons having UKIP as their strategic reserve. That's 4m voters that can be called upon if needed (haven't looked at their geographical dispersion).
Sky News poll finds 68% support early election. Not sure which company.
Should that give us pause? Surely a lot of that 68 per cent are people whose main reason for wanting an early election is to vote against the government. Otherwise, why bother?
As one of the 68% who would have voted Tory/Brexit in 2015/16 and will vote LD (probably) there's got to be a few of us.
There's always churn. Canvassing shows the most bizarre switches sometimes, often for the weirdest of reasons....
We've talked a lot about potential LD gains from Con, but what about from Labour? From memory they lost approx 20 seats to Labour in 2015. Can some of these be won back?
Possibilities are Cambridge, Burnley, Bermondsey, B'ham Yardley.
I wouldn't write off places like Hampstead, Hornsey, even Ealing.
A competent opposition could make hay with this. Instead we have Jezza.
They don't need to go back that far - even without much explanation, if it was from June last year to now, its fair enough changing your mind. But she last weighed in like a month ago.
Agreed. He was trapped by his - and his party's - inflamed rhetoric. "The Tories eat babies! - but we want the baby eating to continue while we are having an internal debate about reselections"
Not very sellable. Labour have no choice but to agree to an election.
What? Since when did being consistent become an attribute of Corbynism? Surely the whole cult depends on not questioning anything the glorious leader says no matter how barking it is? History exists only for rewriting!!!
Its meant to be an attribute of Corbyn, who's appeal boils down to being 'different' from other politicians, and utterly consistent in his principles.
Well then, he would have been better keeping the govt on a small majority where he might stand a chance of defeating them as opposed to trying to defeat them on 50 or 60+ majorities were they can simply pass any policy they like whilst Labour stand by watching helplessly.
The man's a fool.
Sure... he'd prefer for there NOT to be an election. That's totally different from voting against there being one when the motion is pit before Parliament.
Again, you just can't say the Government is killing the poor and sick, then say they ought to do it for three more years. It's an offer you can't refuse, however much you'd love to.
He could also say "If the Tories WANT an election, it is my job to oppose that and say NO"
It's the Opposition's job to REPLACE the Government, not to oppose the only possible event that can allow them to replace the Government!
I know Corbyn is a ludicrous chap in so many ways, but even he couldn't pull that line off.
Indeed. It would make the remaining three years of this parliament (even more of) an impossibility for him. Thrown back in his face over and over.
Politics is a rough game and Corbyn seems to have a thick enough hide.
Fixed it for you:
Politics is a rough game and Corbyn seems to be thick enough
Hills have a market on the size of the Tory Majority:
>100 seats ....... 2.10
<100 seats (or no maj) ..... 1.67
They limited me to £15</p>
Which way did you bet if I may ask ?
On the basis of Betfair Sportsbook pitching the Tories to win 345.5 seats, I went for a < 100 seat Tory Majority which equates to them winning < 375 seats, i.e up to 30 more than the Betfair fulcrum point.
For the Conservatives to make 50 or more gains would be hard.
They'd probably have to overachieve in London and other cities for that to happen.
Sky News poll finds 68% support early election. Not sure which company.
Should that give us pause? Surely a lot of that 68 per cent are people whose main reason for wanting an early election is to vote against the government. Otherwise, why bother?
It does seem to indicate that there's little traction in the "May lied about having an election" attack.
Will May dare risk dropping the pensions triple lock?
Even with such a big poll lead it would surely be too dangerous?
I doubt she will, but with such a titanic lead with over 65s (and impending over 65s), will there be a better time to drop it?
Yes. Just after her landslide. That way, by the next election in 2022, most of those fulminating about the removal of the triple lock will have passed away.
Sky News poll finds 68% support early election. Not sure which company.
Should that give us pause? Surely a lot of that 68 per cent are people whose main reason for wanting an early election is to vote against the government. Otherwise, why bother?
As one of the 68% who would have voted Tory/Brexit in 2015/16 and will vote LD (probably) there's got to be a few of us.
There's always churn. Canvassing shows the most bizarre switches sometimes, often for the weirdest of reasons....
True, although some of that is the tendency of particularly newer canvassers not to ask to speak to other members of the household, but put the whole house down the same, or take one person's word for how the rest of the house votes. I had one household in the last locals where our twenty five years of data suggested they both switched from Labour to Tory and back with no obvious reason or pattern. I canvassed them myself, it turned out he was staunch Tory and she was staunch Labour and for whatever reason every previous canvasser had put them both down as whatever the person who answered the door had told them.
Interesting that most of us are expecting some LD gains from the Tories when in the national opinion polls there's a swing from LD to Con.
Differential swing.
Its the widespread view than in wwcland there's going to be a big increase for the Conservatives with the LibDems stagnant while in a few posh constituencies the LibDems increase with the Conservatives stagnant.
Carshalton might well be at risk for the LibDems even in they do well in Twickenham etc.
And Southport might be interesting - or won on under 30% of the vote.
Local elections last May in the 7 Southport wards LDem 45% 7 seats Con 16% No seats
Sky News poll finds 68% support early election. Not sure which company.
Should that give us pause? Surely a lot of that 68 per cent are people whose main reason for wanting an early election is to vote against the government. Otherwise, why bother?
It does seem to indicate that there's little traction in the "May lied about having an election" attack.
The "May lied that Brexit means Brexit" attack might get more traction.
“ The party has been fined the maximum levy of £20,000 for the breaches, while the case against the party’s top campaign official has been referred to the police. The commission found that 307 payments totalling £184,676 were missing from the party’s spending return.”
Actually I was thinking that all 3 main parties had transgressed, so that is a very fair point.
Sky News poll finds 68% support early election. Not sure which company.
Should that give us pause? Surely a lot of that 68 per cent are people whose main reason for wanting an early election is to vote against the government. Otherwise, why bother?
It does seem to indicate that there's little traction in the "May lied about having an election" attack.
The "May lied that Brexit means Brexit" attack might get more traction.
Brexit means whatever Brexit is politically possible after the GE.
That sending off in the football has to be one of the worst I have ever seen...Got the ball, the whole ball and nothing but the ball. And the wanker in the black books him and ruins the game.
Interesting that most of us are expecting some LD gains from the Tories when in the national opinion polls there's a swing from LD to Con.
Because there will be a NUNS not an UNS
In 1983 there was something like a 7% swing from the Tories to the Alliance but the latter only managed to gain about 6 or 7 seats from the Conservatives. Shows how difficult it can be for a third party to win seats even when the swing is in your direction.
Cathy Newman @cathynewman For fourth time @timfarron struggled to give me a clear answer on if it's true he believes homosexuality is sinful #C4News #GeneralElection
This is why Mrs May should do the debate, get Farron on this topic, then remind the world it was Mrs May as Home Secretary that made same sex marriage legal.
If Mr Farron does believe it to be sinful, all he has to say is that since believes it is sinful then he himself will not commit that sin but he will not attempt to enforce that view on others since their lives are theirs to live as they see fit. His opinion is personal matter only for him. Issue defused.
One of my friend's father is a very devout Christian, he openly admits homosexuality is an abomination/sex, but then says if God really didn't like homosexuals, he'd stop creating them, so up to that point, he'll treat homosexuals with the same respect he treats heterosexuals.
So by the same argument, God must like murderers, rapists and child abusers. Daft bugger.
No. Those three are choices by the individuals concerned. Homosexuality isn't a choice.
Hills have a market on the size of the Tory Majority:
>100 seats ....... 2.10
<100 seats (or no maj) ..... 1.67
They limited me to £15</p>
Which way did you bet if I may ask ?
On the basis of Betfair Sportsbook pitching the Tories to win 345.5 seats, I went for a < 100 seat Tory Majority which equates to them winning < 375 seats, i.e up to 30 more than the Betfair fulcrum point.
For the Conservatives to make 50 or more gains would be hard.
They'd probably have to overachieve in London and other cities for that to happen.
45 or more net gains to be precise since they won 330 seats in 2015. I agree it seems a big ask to win more than 375 seats, especially if they were to lose around 10 or more seats to the LibDems. Their only really fertile area is in the Midlands plus maybe a handful in Yorkshire.
@Aidan___Kerr: Natalie McGarry and Michelle Thomson are at present not SNP members and therefore unable to stand again on the party's ticket for June 8.
I see Twitter is again proving it doesnt reflect the public...The woman saying not another election is the big trending topic...The opinion polls say otherwise.
Will May dare risk dropping the pensions triple lock?
Even with such a big poll lead it would surely be too dangerous?
I doubt she will, but with such a titanic lead with over 65s (and impending over 65s), will there be a better time to drop it?
Yes. Just after her landslide. That way, by the next election in 2022, most of those fulminating about the removal of the triple lock will have passed away.
Do that and she's a u-turning liar. Do it before, when she's so strong with the over 65s and shouldn't be hurt too much, means no heat for doing it later.
@Aidan___Kerr: Natalie McGarry and Michelle Thomson are at present not SNP members and therefore unable to stand again on the party's ticket for June 8.
Cathy Newman @cathynewman For fourth time @timfarron struggled to give me a clear answer on if it's true he believes homosexuality is sinful #C4News #GeneralElection
This is why Mrs May should do the debate, get Farron on this topic, then remind the world it was Mrs May as Home Secretary that made same sex marriage legal.
If Mr Farron does believe it to be sinful, all he has to say is that since believes it is sinful then he himself will not commit that sin but he will not attempt to enforce that view on others since their lives are theirs to live as they see fit. His opinion is personal matter only for him. Issue defused.
One of my friend's father is a very devout Christian, he openly admits homosexuality is an abomination/sex, but then says if God really didn't like homosexuals, he'd stop creating them, so up to that point, he'll treat homosexuals with the same respect he treats heterosexuals.
So by the same argument, God must like murderers, rapists and child abusers. Daft bugger.
No. Those three are choices by the individuals concerned. Homosexuality isn't a choice.
Will May dare risk dropping the pensions triple lock?
Even with such a big poll lead it would surely be too dangerous?
I doubt she will, but with such a titanic lead with over 65s (and impending over 65s), will there be a better time to drop it?
Yes. Just after her landslide. That way, by the next election in 2022, most of those fulminating about the removal of the triple lock will have passed away.
Do that and she's a u-turning liar. Do it before, when she's so strong with the over 65s and shouldn't be hurt too much, means no heat for doing it later.
I suspect the manifesto will be long on generalities and short on specifics with as few hostages to fortune as possible. So triple lock won't be mentioned etc
Hills have a market on the size of the Tory Majority:
>100 seats ....... 2.10
<100 seats (or no maj) ..... 1.67
They limited me to £15</p>
Which way did you bet if I may ask ?
On the basis of Betfair Sportsbook pitching the Tories to win 345.5 seats, I went for a < 100 seat Tory Majority which equates to them winning < 375 seats, i.e up to 30 more than the Betfair fulcrum point.
For the Conservatives to make 50 or more gains would be hard.
They'd probably have to overachieve in London and other cities for that to happen.
45 or more net gains to be precise since they won 330 seats in 2015. I agree it seems a big ask to win more than 375 seats, especially if they were to lose around 10 or more seats to the LibDems. Their only really fertile area is in the Midlands plus maybe a handful in Yorkshire.
Can we nail this down now? The Tories won 331 seats last time for a notional majority of 12.
Bercow has to count as a Tory because one of his Deputies comes from that party and two from the other side of the House.
Interesting that most of us are expecting some LD gains from the Tories when in the national opinion polls there's a swing from LD to Con.
Because there will be a NUNS not an UNS
In 1983 there was something like a 7% swing from the Tories to the Alliance but the latter only managed to gain about 6 or 7 seats from the Conservatives. Shows how difficult it can be for a third party to win seats even when the swing is in your direction.
Especially with a relatively evenly spread vote, for sure.
But UNS was always a hypothesis designed to deal with the Lab/Tory swing, and it works for smaller parties neither in principle nor in practice.
I think May won't get anywhere as many seats as she's expecting.
Typically I'd agree.... But we have to factor in Jezza... And I mean in Copeland she achieved a 7% swing TO the governing party in a mid-term by election.
Could have sworn Mike wrote a thread a couple of weeks ago saying we should END speculation of an early election!
Whatever you do, DO NOT look at 30th March.....!
Although to be fair to OGH, it does say it would need the connivance of Corbyn
"In the current Parliament 434 MPs would have to back the measure. That would mean getting Labour agreement so the choice would be in Mr. Corbyn’s hands."
Didn't quite connect the dots though and say there was no way Corbyn could agree to see the baby-eating Tories in post for three more years, until they had gone through their entire recipe book....
We've talked a lot about potential LD gains from Con, but what about from Labour? From memory they lost approx 20 seats to Labour in 2015. Can some of these be won back?
Possibilities are Cambridge, Burnley, Bermondsey, B'ham Yardley.
Jess may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but she's quickly become very popular and I doubt even Hemming could dislodge her.
The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.
Cathy Newman @cathynewman For fourth time @timfarron struggled to give me a clear answer on if it's true he believes homosexuality is sinful #C4News #GeneralElection
This is why Mrs May should do the debate, get Farron on this topic, then remind the world it was Mrs May as Home Secretary that made same sex marriage legal.
If Mr Farron does believe it to be sinful, all he has to say is that since believes it is sinful then he himself will not commit that sin but he will not attempt to enforce that view on others since their lives are theirs to live as they see fit. His opinion is personal matter only for him. Issue defused.
One of my friend's father is a very devout Christian, he openly admits homosexuality is an abomination/sex, but then says if God really didn't like homosexuals, he'd stop creating them, so up to that point, he'll treat homosexuals with the same respect he treats heterosexuals.
So by the same argument, God must like murderers, rapists and child abusers. Daft bugger.
No. Those three are choices by the individuals concerned. Homosexuality isn't a choice.
I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
We've talked a lot about potential LD gains from Con, but what about from Labour? From memory they lost approx 20 seats to Labour in 2015. Can some of these be won back?
Possibilities are Cambridge, Burnley, Bermondsey, B'ham Yardley.
Jess may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but she's quickly become very popular and I doubt even Hemming could dislodge her.
Possibly right. She was however stitched up by the Guardian today with her 'private' comments about fearing many of her Midlands colleagues are about to lose their seats.
I see Twitter is again proving it doesnt reflect the public...The woman saying not another election is the big trending topic...The opinion polls say otherwise.
Bit weird that prior to May's decision only a third of people wanted an early election and now it seems everyone wants one.
I can't work out who was virtue signalling when but clearly it was happening.
The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.
The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.
Thought that was Trump certain to lose. Oh and BREXIT
» show previous quotes These ideas may individually get over the wire in their acceptance in Scotland, but they're far from accepted as a package.
The relatively pragmatic Tories are far from your enemy if you want an independent Scotland. Your actual enemy is clearly the somewhat brighter bloke that lives next door.
Nobody within miles is brighter than me so that one does not resonate.
(The last line is malcolmg's.)
As you must clearly live on a very remote island malcolmg then I wonder what light you might cast on these matters?
Omnium , highly populated area for sure , I don't usually like to blow my own trumpet , but I am a bit of an intergalatic megastar, brighter than your average bear for sure. It will be SNP by a very very wide margin in Scotland , negated by the supine Tory victory in England and will lead to independence for sure as England moves ever rightwards.
Oh well. I didn't realise I was dealing with an intergalactic megastar. If only I'd been told.
Are you actually saying that English voters don't count? ("Supine", really?)
I am saying they seem to favour Tories whereas in Scotland the Tories are hated and will never be in government, ergo we end up with a bunch of right wing nutjobs running Scotland even though we hugely vote against them all the time. That is not democracy , we are little more than a colony.
Where's Alastair Meeks when you need him to spot those early bird value bets on the GE?
Just remember, I get to see Alastair's threads before anyone else, and I get all the value on the bets before anyone else.
We need to wait for next week for the 50/1 constituency bets
Con gain all the Glasgow seats.
If only Shadsy did accumulators.
Even after the 50/1 wonderland (that i did not partake of, alas)was over the Scottish constituency market was the most generous betting market i have ever seen, even up to the eve of the election.
The ever annoying Laura K trying her best to ramp up risk/uncertainty for May about this election. There is none. This is the surest thing you'll ever see in politics.
I see that Mélenchon wants big labour reform in France....Shorter working week, earlier retirement, etc etc etc...The likes of the Chinese be pissing themselves.
He was less likely than Cornyn to win an election 2 weeks ago. Now he is in with a chance
Comments
Even with such a big poll lead it would surely be too dangerous?
Munich been slaughtered by the officials in Madrid. Dodgy red and offside goal
That's about it.
Politics is a rough game and Corbyn seems to be thick enough
Its the widespread view than in wwcland there's going to be a big increase for the Conservatives with the LibDems stagnant while in a few posh constituencies the LibDems increase with the Conservatives stagnant.
Carshalton might well be at risk for the LibDems even in they do well in Twickenham etc.
And Southport might be interesting - or won on under 30% of the vote.
I'm sure it was a factor, but not the principal one by any means.
A competent opposition could make hay with this. Instead we have Jezza.
The ICM implies that London, the North and Scotland is where a fifth of Remainers will act that way. It also implies that it will be younger Remainers who choose this way.
I'd say Scotland was mainly a write off as the SNP have that sewn up, while the North is likely to be uni-heavy constituencies. London will have the odd Tory pocket in the SW but also the affluent parts of inner London that sit alongside largely BAME social housing areas.
I see the Lib Dems largely fighting for the same pool of voters as Labour/SNP/Greens more than disgruntled europhile Tories.
Take on me!
They'd probably have to overachieve in London and other cities for that to happen.
Jezza to announce his resignation tomorrow evening, with a coronation for Hilary Benn.
Come on Mr Corbyn, do what is right for your party, and the country.
On that fanciful note, Ciao!
Could have sworn Mike wrote a thread a couple of weeks ago saying we should END speculation of an early election!
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
I highly doubt the Tories will get the crazy baxtered amounts based on latest polling.
Bercow has to count as a Tory because one of his Deputies comes from that party and two from the other side of the House.
The BBC got this right in 2015, Sky got it wrong.
But UNS was always a hypothesis designed to deal with the Lab/Tory swing, and it works for smaller parties neither in principle nor in practice.
What happened in 2015 can un-happen in 2017.
So, in my view, all bets are off....
Although to be fair to OGH, it does say it would need the connivance of Corbyn
"In the current Parliament 434 MPs would have to back the measure. That would mean getting Labour agreement so the choice would be in Mr. Corbyn’s hands."
Didn't quite connect the dots though and say there was no way Corbyn could agree to see the baby-eating Tories in post for three more years, until they had gone through their entire recipe book....
Big if, that said.
I would rather vote Dim Farron then Labour under Benn
Will he stand and if so where will he stand.
I can't work out who was virtue signalling when but clearly it was happening.
If only Shadsy did accumulators.
https://twitter.com/noramulready/status/854384687220969473
#InRuthWeTrust
The nearest parallel is Thatcher versus Foot (in terms of Labour disarray).
What happened in that election? I think the campaign increased the Tory lead.