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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like Mike Smithson was right about his theory about the reasons for an early general election
BREAKING: The CPS have told Channel 4 News tonight that they are considering charges against more than 30 individuals. #electionexpenses
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I still think the decision to go for the election is because of the "divorce bill". She could not get through any settlement beyond £20 bn with her current majority.
Of course, it would still be unpopular but she would not have to worry about the people for 5 years. She will have fooled the people as she has fooled her party all these years.
The most unsuccessful Home Secretary in living memory campaigning on immigration, on which she herself spectacularly failed.
Best be careful this time, Tories. Everyone breaks the rules a bit, but it appears you have egregiously and repeatedly.
https://twitter.com/JWoodcockMP/status/854392447882887169
Pedant mode, but haven't they been considering them since they received the files?
Brexit should take care of the other half of the job
Delusion is a beautiful but tragic thing.
They should invite her to all the debates. If she chooses to not attend, then fine. The opposition will have a couple of hours to discuss the merits of the government and all their good works ..
The media should put a marker down that no party leader gets a veto on the debates.
The CPS won't prosecute.
This isn't a scandal.
George Osborne is never coming back.
Some things you have to let go, TSE.
Might save Labour from a wipeout.
Mr. Eagles, maybe.
But May can lay the blame at Cameron's door. And that doesn't alter the fact it's her or Corbyn.
Hard to say how it'll play. Charges during the election campaign would be... interesting.
Perhaps you'd feel more at peace if you came to terms with the emergence of May as the greatest Tory PM since Thatcher.
She can't blame the ancien régime.
The CPS have balls, they've charged and imprisoned 4 or 5 past or serving MPs in recent years, including a cabinet minister.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/854398631906086913
Operation Charge Old White Men has a pretty high failure rate. And there was the case Mr. Charles referred to here some time ago, during Starmer's period as head of the CPS.
PLP meeting tonight.
Years? Decades? Life?
/trollusmaximus
Omnium said:
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These ideas may individually get over the wire in their acceptance in Scotland, but they're far from accepted as a package.
The relatively pragmatic Tories are far from your enemy if you want an independent Scotland. Your actual enemy is clearly the somewhat brighter bloke that lives next door.
Nobody within miles is brighter than me so that one does not resonate.
Snowflake and triggered are banned as well, except when I use them e.g. This morning
The PM will be returned with a handsome majority but her specific judgement on various issues has been lamentable. She has the great good fortune in being opposed by a LotO so poor that an investigation by Trading Standards is substantially overdue.
Its the feminine side of him that's kicking off. It'll calm down eventually.
Mr. Omnium, if the election goes ahead. Labour have to back it.
They have been undone by their own sloth, though. If they had been in a position to bring charges today, that would have been a game changer. Dripping poison about their vague intentions into the ears of journalists doesn't cut it.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/854401993389092865
Poor Old Jezza, what a shame.
A poll that Britain does not need, but that Britain wants!
Through some miracle or other Labour get 270 seats, enough for a coalition or minority gov't with the SNP (They are one vote short).
Farron says he can't countenance Corbyn as PM and will support for Hammond (May has resigned perhaps) to have the support of the house. But they are one vote short - the support of the Commons depends on Woodcock after taking all votes in the round into account - does he HONESTLY vote against the Labour Queens speech or abstain or some such if his is the neccesary vote ?
His position is utterly ludicrous I'm afraid if he decides to run as a Labour & Coop candidate.
To trigger an election under the FTPA you need the votes of two-thirds of the Commons. I believe there will be - and this is a technical term - a metric shit tonne of abstentions. A great many Labour MPs, and even quite a few Conservative and SNP MPs, will say "Obviously, I would have voted in favour, but I was out campaigning". It is quite possible the government comes up short at the first attempt.
Of course, there will be a simple one line enabling bill tabled. But could it cause the election to slip by a week or two? Yes.
It is probably an 85% probability the election is on 8 June. But the odds suggest a 97-98% probability. That's a great value bet, and one where there might be multiple trading opportunities to leave the party with a profit.
The job of every viable replacement labour leader is to avoid being tied to Corbyn at all costs.