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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looks like Mike Smithson was right about his theory about the

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    kle4 said:

    I see guido was mocking labour for not having a campaign slogan ready to go. What is the Tory slogan? The lds I assume are going for 'open, tolerant and united', I've seen that plastered in many places these last months.

    'Stability and security', as the slogan? Keep it simple.

    "Destroy all traitors", judging by the front pages of the Sun and Mail today.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    Given how much John Oliver hates Tories, I can't wait to his take on this next week - I'm betting 2 minutes on the trouble with corbyn followed by 5 mins on May broke her word and 5 mins on the snp.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    “I’ll probably go Lib Dem,” said Caitland Shaw, a 20-year-old student who said she hadn’t voted in the referendum because “I didn’t think we would lose”. She said she’d had “misplaced faith” that the public would make the “right” choice, and liked that the Lib Dems were now fighting for remainers.

    ~~~

    Odds on Shaw saying she didn't bother to vote come the election passeth ?
    Fox jr and his girlfriend are both voting LD. Tuition fees are ancient history when aged 21, and Brexit despised. She used to be a Labour party member too!

    Tuition fees and the associated loan debts both need to be reduced, an effective 9% additional tax on our brightest and best who choose to remain in the country I'm convinced is not good for the long term.
    But that's a debate for another day.
    David Willetts for the slave galleys has to be a winning policy
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,780
    edited April 2017

    kle4 said:

    I see guido was mocking labour for not having a campaign slogan ready to go. What is the Tory slogan? The lds I assume are going for 'open, tolerant and united', I've seen that plastered in many places these last months.

    'Stability and security', as the slogan? Keep it simple.

    "Destroy all traitors", judging by the front pages of the Sun and Mail today.

    I suspect they'll go for a slightly more conciliatory tone. But I hope those headlines cost the Tories a few votes - perfectly designed to tell any waverers 'you may hate corbyn, but you cannot sit this one out'.

    Surprised no ones photoshopped May as a Dalek.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    The only way is for Corbyn to go now is for him to resign. That will not happen. He will lead Labour to catastrophe and then seek to stay on as leader. He will be challenged and he will lose. Then the handful of Labour MPs left in the Commons can start the long, hard task of making the party relevant again. I suspect that mediocre May will be some help in this, but it will still take many, many years.

    Why necessarily assume that he would be defeated in a post-election leadership challenge? The majority of the leadership selectorate are Far Left, and the Far Left always blames somebody else.

    When Corbyn loses heavily (even - hopefully - catastrophically) then it will be the fault of the Blairites in Parliament and the MSM out of it, never of the Far Left itself. It's at least as likely that his wounded supporters will circle the wagons and support him (or a designated ideological successor) even more strongly than before.

    And, of course, the public won't *really* have rejected their agenda at the ballot box - they just will have been hoodwinked into voting contrary to their own interests. False consciousness, etc, etc...
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    Just reporting I have already claimed first on the new thread....
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    IanB2 said:

    In twelve hours yesterday, LibDem party membership grew by more than 5%.

    5000 new members in a day. Impresive, though as ever a lot depends on geography.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,755
    edited April 2017
    JohnO said:

    Just reporting I have already claimed first on the new thread....

    begorra Seanin youre back

    I'll shall be voting blue this time, I assume youll be off to UKIP ? :-)
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,264
    So, anyway, on to more important matters: the next Labour leader.

    First of all, it has to be someone with a rock-safe seat. That lets out the egregious Cat Smith, also Clive Lewis and despite earlier posts very probably Jess Philips too (heck, even Yvette Cooper doesn't look totally safe).

    It has to be someone who can pass for sane. That lets out Abbott, Macdonnell, Burgon, Rayner, Long-Bailey and Thornberry.

    It has to be someone in Parliament. That lets out Burnham and Khan.

    It has to be someone who can't be blamed for the defeat. That lets out Trickett.

    It has to be someone acceptable to the left. That lets out almost every other plausible candidate including Benn, Watson and Creasy.

    Two obvious front runners are left. Starmer is favourite with the bookies. However, there is rumoured to be some bad stuff about his disastrous time as DPP which somebody as ruthless as May will undoubtedly use. Moreover as a posh London lawyer he's completely out of touch with the voters Labour need to reach.

    Which leaves the other one. Jon Ashworth meets all the criteria above. Also, if the Labour campaign is to be on the NHS - and it has to be because that's the one topic Labour agrees on and has a realistic angle of attack on - he will get a lot of airtime. He is also, along with Starmer, a rare example of an effective shadow Minister. Moreover, he doesn't carry much baggage.

    At the moment he's 80/1. Those odds seem insane to me. 3/1 would be more like it. DYOR but I'd say he's value.
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