Those are much lower for HRC than I would have expected.
27% is same as Romney for Latinos, I don't believe it.
Utter tosh.
Is it an actual exit poll or just a on the day poll like they did for GE 2010 and Referendum? They are crap at those. I think he will get 14% with Latinos what about you.
I think I will start on my bottle of very nice Turkish red. It looks like a long night.
Stone cold sober here.
Punting while pissed is a very bad idea.
That is true.
My base case however is that a Clinton win will become quickly apparent. There isn't too much money to be made on that anyway, and I am long in the right places for it already. It there is a sniff of a surprise then it could be June 23rd again, except that unlike then, I expect the media and commentators will be ahead of the game, limiting the scope to make money from better judgement. So I am not really anticipating a heavy betting night whilst keeping an eye on the financial markets, just in case.
The medium term issue for me is when global stock markets finally turn downwards from this year's peak; Current valuations are only being sustained by ZIRP and QE whose time is slowly running out. I wouldn't be surprised if the short rally after Clinton's win becomes the last of the good times for investors.
Trump hitting Romney's numbers with minorities, good for Trump.
Hillary beating Trump by less than 10 with college educated white women means it's probably tied with college educated white voters in general, good for Trump.
The Washington Post were saying five days ago that college-educated white women were Clinton's "firewall". The WP-ABC tracking poll had her beating Trump 56-36 in that demographic, and among Latinos 67-24. Will the story of this election be that middle class white women don't care much about one guy who grabs women's genitals but they think that something should be done about the number of Mexican immigrants?
White women college graduates must be a pretty small crossbreak, to be fair...
The Washington Post were saying five days ago that college-educated white women were Clinton's "firewall". The WP-ABC tracking poll had her beating Trump 56-36 in that demographic, and among Latinos 67-24. Will the story of this election be that middle class white women don't care much about one guy who grabs women's genitals but they think that something should be done about the number of Mexican immigrants?
Hi all. Apologies if already covered. Andrew Neil is doing the BBC coverage from 23:15. He knows a fair bit about US politics, better than Dimbleby! I'm minded to watch that, any thoughts?
Evening all. On Brexit night we had the amazing benefit of THE Spreadsheet.
Is there a POTUS night equivalent??
Andy JS posted something earlier as an indicator. Damned if I can recall the details but it looked like a 'Sunderland' indicator. Fairly sure, he's the man where the Brexit referendum details came from.
I recommend the Dordogne in autumn tho. Very pretty. Empty. Food a bit repetitive, but when it's good it's great - like here at Chateau de la Treyne - where I'm the only guest as the season ends.
Literally: I'm the last guest. Two dozen staff, 18 empty rooms, a Michelin star, and me. They close for the winter at the weekend.
Imagine this: What if Bruce Springsteen had gotten into a van and trailed Donald Trump to every campaign stop over the last four weeks (or even the last two). Imagine if every time Donald Trump set up to speak, Bruce got out of his van, strolled to a street corner or park a few blocks away, strapped on an acoustic guitar, and began to sing. Maybe he would sing songs about the working men and women who have always been his constituency, or maybe he would sign songs of Boardwalks or Vietnam, or maybe he would sing the old songs of freedom and unity that Woody Guthrie or Pete Seeger sang.
I recommend the Dordogne in autumn tho. Very pretty. Empty. Food a bit repetitive, but when it's good it's great - like here at Chateau de la Treyne - where I'm the only guest as the season ends.
Literally: I'm the last guest. Two dozen staff, 18 empty rooms, a Michelin star, and me. They close for the winter at the weekend.
Hi all. Apologies if already covered. Andrew Neil is doing the BBC coverage from 23:15. He knows a fair bit about US politics, better than Dimbleby! I'm minded to watch that, any thoughts?
If you are British it has to be the BBC.
I can only get Sky News in Morocco. Beggars can't be choosers.
I recommend the Dordogne in autumn tho. Very pretty. Empty. Food a bit repetitive, but when it's good it's great - like here at Chateau de la Treyne - where I'm the only guest as the season ends.
Literally: I'm the last guest. Two dozen staff, 18 empty rooms, a Michelin star, and me. They close for the winter at the weekend.
I recommend the Dordogne in autumn tho. Very pretty. Empty. Food a bit repetitive, but when it's good it's great - like here at Chateau de la Treyne - where I'm the only guest as the season ends.
Literally: I'm the last guest. Two dozen staff, 18 empty rooms, a Michelin star, and me. They close for the winter at the weekend.
I'd be wary of assuming everyone who answers they "voted for change" in exit polls will definitely be Trump voters. There will presumably be some women who see voting for a female President as "change".
Off to ConHome for six weeks for you for that awful crime against the English language
That is an immediate suspension from our party - red card for Rob - we only want those who speak proper like.
To be fair to Rob he's working in a country that regularly outrages the English language.
If he starts missing 'u' from words like colour and favour Rob'd be like Mark Reckless to me.
Occasionally you see British English spellings here to give a sense of poshness - there are some venues in NYC that spell their names with "Theatre" for instance. This can lead to hilariousness sometimes though: there's a condo near me called "Tappan Manour".
As immature young men working in NYC, when taking part in the bar quizzes in the local bars we always called ourselves "the w;;kers" as no one there ever seemed to know that swear word or what it meant.... i presume that's changed since Trump came on the scene.
Someone local to me has the New York licence plate "BOLUX"
The Washington Post were saying five days ago that college-educated white women were Clinton's "firewall". The WP-ABC tracking poll had her beating Trump 56-36 in that demographic, and among Latinos 67-24. Will the story of this election be that middle class white women don't care much about one guy who grabs women's genitals but they think that something should be done about the number of Mexican immigrants?
White women college graduates must be a pretty small crossbreak, to be fair...
Fair point. But non-graduate white women break heavily for Trump, so maybe it's a white women story. I wasn't convinced at first by Scott Adams's latest argument - especially when he endorsed Johnson - but now I think about it, applied to white women voters it makes a lot of sense. A candidate who behaves vilely towards women isn't something that's scary in the same way, assuming they don't meet him, as the immigrant question as they experience it.
Evening all. On Brexit night we had the amazing benefit of THE Spreadsheet.
Is there a POTUS night equivalent??
Andy JS posted something earlier as an indicator. Damned if I can recall the details but it looked like a 'Sunderland' indicator. Fairly sure, he's the man where the Brexit referendum details came from.
From Harry Enten on the 538 blog: "There has been talk that black turnout may be down in North Carolina. The preliminary exit polls suggest that may be the case. Only 21 percent of voters in North Carolina identified as black. That’s down slightly from 23 percent in 2012."
In close result in the state 2% could make all the difference
If you are to believe that the Trump ground game management is rubbish then there is only one source to look at and thats anything that appears to source out of Clinton's camp. Those are the faces to watch.
Comments
My base case however is that a Clinton win will become quickly apparent. There isn't too much money to be made on that anyway, and I am long in the right places for it already. It there is a sniff of a surprise then it could be June 23rd again, except that unlike then, I expect the media and commentators will be ahead of the game, limiting the scope to make money from better judgement. So I am not really anticipating a heavy betting night whilst keeping an eye on the financial markets, just in case.
The medium term issue for me is when global stock markets finally turn downwards from this year's peak; Current valuations are only being sustained by ZIRP and QE whose time is slowly running out. I wouldn't be surprised if the short rally after Clinton's win becomes the last of the good times for investors.
On Brexit night we had the amazing benefit of
THE Spreadsheet.
Is there a POTUS night equivalent??
https://twitter.com/CNN_PoIitics/status/796112448487096324
Will be more careful next time.
But we need to be clear on the thread what territory these exit polls apply to. I assumed national until I double checked CNN.
edit: 6.6.
edit: 6.8.
Timberrr.
What's going on?
Exits pro Trump?
http://observer.com/2016/11/how-rock-n-roll-failed-us-again-this-presidential-election/
Imagine this:
What if Bruce Springsteen had gotten into a van and trailed Donald Trump to every campaign stop over the last four weeks (or even the last two). Imagine if every time Donald Trump set up to speak, Bruce got out of his van, strolled to a street corner or park a few blocks away, strapped on an acoustic guitar, and began to sing. Maybe he would sing songs about the working men and women who have always been his constituency, or maybe he would sign songs of Boardwalks or Vietnam, or maybe he would sing the old songs of freedom and unity that Woody Guthrie or Pete Seeger sang.
Imagine that.
There are no words.
We all make mistakes: OGH cost traders hundreds of millions prior to the EU ref.
Thx.
Exit polls are not final - biased to East Coast
https://twitter.com/rudygiulianiGOP/status/796053686405517312
37 Democrats
32 Republicans
31 Independents.
A bit closer than most polls thought.
When each state's polls close they either declare winner immediately (based on exit) or say too close to call (and release some exit info).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rX81hzcoxmbTc_gl3qpBnBC6XgBVZebK5KdnCxW0Q4U/edit#gid=0
1 minute ago
Have deleted tweet from Giuliani parody account. Apols.
(not a criticism of whoever posted it, I've fallen for these too)
I'm having some of that
"There has been talk that black turnout may be down in North Carolina. The preliminary exit polls suggest that may be the case. Only 21 percent of voters in North Carolina identified as black. That’s down slightly from 23 percent in 2012."
In close result in the state 2% could make all the difference
HC win best for me though