It would be good to get more regular Scottish polls for Westminster and for the Scottish Parliament. This is particularly the case since the Scottish polls have been marginally more accurate than the UK ones.
However all the indications we have is that the SNP maintains its extraordinary dominance at around the 50 per cent mark while there is some debate around whether the Tories have pulled clear of Labour in second. All of this would matter little come an election. As the Scottish results showed there are only a handful of seats where the Tories could seriously threaten an SNP incumbent. Parties running at 50 per cent of the vote tend not to lose seats.
Just as likely, assuming some movement back from the present honeymoon high, would be to put at risk the only seat that the Tories hold. This would be even more the case if May was seen to try a quick trick to take advantage of Labour and UKIP convulsions. "We are the only serious opposition" would be a strong platform on which the SNP could fight to gain even more votes from non Tories. Indeed under current circumstances all remaining pro-Scottish Labour votes might go SNP.
Even more of a risk to the cautious union supporting May would be that the election could be turned by Sturgeon into a de facto independence vote for Scotland. There is no ultimate reason why these matters are only decided by referendum as the "velvet divorce" between Czechs and the Slovaks reminds us which took place after an election showed incompatible results in the two countries.
The Holyrood elections this year actually showed the SNP well short of 50% - 46.5% based on constituency vote share and less than 42% on the regional list share. The polls significantly overestimated the SNP whilst underestimating the Tories - and even Labour to some extent. Given that the SNP tends to outperform at Holyrood relative to Westminster it seems unlikely that the SNP would do better than 45% at a UK election.
Interesting despite the near unanimity in the media that there'll be a rate cut the £ is strengthening against the Euro. I hope they don't cut as it seems a waste of the very limited 'bullets they have left.
Blanchflower is calling for a rate cut and he's typically wrong about pretty much everything...
'Fly the flag for Team GB. It may well be the last hurrah for ‘Britain’
...
It really has. It’s also a fading signifier for pretensions to global importance that Brexit has decisively done for. It’s the name of the nonexistent empire referred to in the titles of all those dodgy honours. It’s somewhere cited by politicians – witness Michael Howard’s “British dream”, Ed Miliband’s “British promise”, and David Cameron’s tributes to something he called “the British spirit” – whose words fail to ring true, not just because patriotism of the Westminster variety is usually a put-on, but because the imagined country to which they refer barely exists anymore.'
I've never understood how Brexit destroys Britain's "pretentions to global significance" - what is the argument for it?
Once you embed your economy deeply into Europe, a single currency becomes attractive... once you have that, you want it to function effectively, so need to pool fiscal powers... then more power in Brussels starts to require more democratic accountability, so you need something more like an elected government there and less like an international organisation... then that government will naturally promote deeper economic integration, and which encourages more pooling, and so on.
In that scenario Britain effectively ceases to exist as an international actor in its own right. Even if Britain were never pulled in so deep - and I'd argue there would ultimately be times when Britain is just one economic or financial crisis away from having euro membership appear attractive - it ends up as an uncomfortably semi-detached member of a larger political union in which it is an increasingly poor fit. Is that something a "globally significant" nation would view as a desirable pathway?
I get why some people want to be part of a European federation. I get why some people would prefer Britain "half in, half out" as it has been since Maastricht. I don't get why those courses are viewed as making Britain a "global player" whereas standing on its own feet, pursuing a sui generis relationship with the EU and its own interests elsewhere in the world is somehow a self-sunset on having any role in the world.
Reading last night's thread, it's clear some people think the UK would be like Bangladesh, had it not joined the EU.
Mental illness seemed like a 'significant part' of last night's thread
Have to agree about the militarisation of the police. I dont understand the need for it. We have lived by the motto of not giving the criminals a reason to carry lethal weapons. It feels like this is being undone.
And if we must have (in affect) an army on the streets, I would rather they deploy the real British army rather than tooled up robocops.
Interesting despite the near unanimity in the media that there'll be a rate cut the £ is strengthening against the Euro. I hope they don't cut as it seems a waste of the very limited 'bullets they have left.
Totally agree, it has been a grim few years for us savers.
And especially those of us wot use their savings to fund their trainspotting habit
How much does it cost for pencils, trainspotting books and bicycles?
'Fly the flag for Team GB. It may well be the last hurrah for ‘Britain’
...
It really has. It’s also a fading signifier for pretensions to global importance that Brexit has decisively done for. It’s the name of the nonexistent empire referred to in the titles of all those dodgy honours. It’s somewhere cited by politicians – witness Michael Howard’s “British dream”, Ed Miliband’s “British promise”, and David Cameron’s tributes to something he called “the British spirit” – whose words fail to ring true, not just because patriotism of the Westminster variety is usually a put-on, but because the imagined country to which they refer barely exists anymore.'
I've never understood how Brexit destroys Britain's "pretentions to global significance" - what is the argument for it?
Once you embed your economy deeply into Europe, a single currency becomes attractive... once you have that, you want it to function effectively, so need to pool fiscal powers... then more power in Brussels starts to require more democratic accountability, so you need something more like an elected government there and less like an international organisation... then that government will naturally promote deeper economic integration, and which encourages more pooling, and so on.
In that scenario Britain effectively ceases to exist as an international actor in its own right. Even if Britain were never pulled in so deep - and I'd argue there would ultimately be times when Britain is just one economic or financial crisis away from having euro membership appear attractive - it ends up as an uncomfortably semi-detached member of a larger political union in which it is an increasingly poor fit. Is that something a "globally significant" nation would view as a desirable pathway?
I get why some people want to be part of a European federation. I get why some people would prefer Britain "half in, half out" as it has been since Maastricht. I don't get why those courses are viewed as making Britain a "global player" whereas standing on its own feet, pursuing a sui generis relationship with the EU and its own interests elsewhere in the world is somehow a self-sunset on having any role in the world.
Reading last night's thread, it's clear some people think the UK would be like Bangladesh, had it not joined the EU.
You mean below Afghanistan in the Cricket T20 rankings?????
Yes, the country which beat England twice in 50 overs World Cup ! Bangladesh also qualified to the quarter finals of the WC.
Lab on 28% - am I right in thinking this figure, or there about, appears to be consistent with other polls? – Their base camp, with a mountain to climb.
They will do well to maintain 28% with Jezza in charge.
Quite. They scored 30% with Miliband and 29% with Brown. Jeremy is probably below 25% after a campaign where he only targets his existing supporters and think the biggest issues facing Britain are refugees (why don't we let them all in?) and Palestine.
Labour actually polled 31.2% under Miliband and 29.7% under Brown on a GB basis -which is what the polls almost invariably measure. You have quoted UK figures.
of the total electorate:
2015 - 30.4 % 2010 - 29.0 %
Let's all compare like with like instead of doing corrections behind the scenes.
Pollsters use the 'total electorate' for GB rather than the UK!
Both parties are broad churches of course, but currently Labour's leadership and PLP are so divided I struggle to imagine them running a vaguely coherent GE campaign.
If Corbyn came up with a hard left manifesto, would Blairite MPs go on TV to defend it? Would they promote it in literature to their constituents? I'm trying to imagine Chukka Umunna explaining to Andrew Neil the merits of renationalising the coal mines or something and I just can't.
If the choice was that or deselection these slimeballs woul;d certainly do it , they would sell their grannies.
A fair point. Some of them would be at risk of repelling their soft-left constituents and at risk of losing their seats, particularly if they're competing with the Lib Dems. But I guess they'd take the chance of that over the certainty of deselection by the Momentum mob for disobedience.
"In Australia, for example, the government often builds new infrastructure itself and then sells it on to pension funds to run them. This works because pension funds can’t afford to take the risk of new construction projects but can run them efficiently. And selling the assets means that government coffers are replenished rather than drained."
Does anyone know anything about this policy. It seems jolly sensible to me.
MPS now saying via Sky that they're searching the stabber's home for reasons for his attack...
There's some really weird statements coming out.
- Saqid comes back from holiday and says Move Along, Nothing To See Here... - Hogan-Howe says how great the MPS response was and armed police are showing how we're all protected... - No details of his background
Martin Brunt saying murdered lady was American, others hurt include an Israeli, Brit, Aussie and another USAer.
"Random attack"
It's definitely weird how this is being reported when you compare it to say the Jo Cox killing.
Interesting despite the near unanimity in the media that there'll be a rate cut the £ is strengthening against the Euro. I hope they don't cut as it seems a waste of the very limited 'bullets they have left.
Blanchflower is calling for a rate cut....
From what I can recall Blanchflower has been calling for a rate cut for about the last thirty years.
About as unexpected as ASLEF calling for rail nstionalisation.
Have to agree about the militarisation of the police. I dont understand the need for it. We have lived by the motto of not giving the criminals a reason to carry lethal weapons. It feels like this is being undone.
I think it was undone a good while back by the criminals.
I don't expect May's honeymoon to last to November never mind Spring 2017. By that time I rather doubt that the polls will be making an early election quite so appealing as an option.
Interesting despite the near unanimity in the media that there'll be a rate cut the £ is strengthening against the Euro. I hope they don't cut as it seems a waste of the very limited 'bullets they have left.
Agreed.
How much better it would be if the B of E raised interest rates by 0.5% "to cool the fast growing economy".
The economy is dead right now ! It does not need a 0.25% interest rate cut. It needs a mouth-to-mouth resuscitation !
BRING IT ON. We will go to the ENTIRE COUNTRY with an explicit manifesto commitment NOT to invoke Article 50 in the following 5 years.
Remember this is a General election. Not an advisory vote.
Jezza was calling for A50 to be invoked at 8am on 24th June?
Jezza may not be calling it.
So you think "Owen Who" would stand on a platform of ignoring the referendum result and Labour will do well on that platform?
It's a point of view I suppose...
I didn't say that. EEA + FoM will command 60% support in the country. That still respects "Brexit" as was written on the ballot paper. It won't make people like you happy. But then who cares ?
60% would not support the party which calls for it. But enough Tories would move away from them to the Liberals or any other party which calls for such an arrangement.
I don't expect May's honeymoon to last to November never mind Spring 2017. By that time I rather doubt that the polls will be making an early election quite so appealing as an option.
I suspect the polls will stay pretty stable. The main movement hasn't been from Labour to Tory, it's been from UKIP to Tory.
But Texas has gone Democrat before in 1960, 1964 and 1968 as well as most recently 1976. Interesting that they won even in close election years like 1960 and 1968.
Different Democrats.
If you look at a map of US election results, it inverts over the 1960s. 1968 is pretty much the pivotal year for this.
or
what JackW said.
Trying to draw conclusions about states electoral preferences using data prior to the Civil Rights Act is doomed to failure.
Interesting despite the near unanimity in the media that there'll be a rate cut the £ is strengthening against the Euro. I hope they don't cut as it seems a waste of the very limited 'bullets they have left.
Agreed.
How much better it would be if the B of E raised interest rates by 0.5% "to cool the fast growing economy".
The economy is dead right now ! It does not need a 0.25% interest rate cut. It needs a mouth-to-mouth resuscitation !
Have to agree about the militarisation of the police. I dont understand the need for it. We have lived by the motto of not giving the criminals a reason to carry lethal weapons. It feels like this is being undone.
It would be much better if the proper army were involved more in internal security. There'd be less posturing and more education of the many civilians who have a security role too.
Hogan-Howe has made clear that the latest move is mainly PR, to get "the public" to realise vigilance against terrorism isn't just unnecessary health-and-safety nonsense. It's practically playing dress-up. The army have fought and lost two unnecessary and criminal wars abroad, against forces who were no threat to Britain whatsoever; now here's a genuinely needed role for them at home, but they're not being given it.
As things stand, security at many public events and crowded locations is absolute crap.
Interesting despite the near unanimity in the media that there'll be a rate cut the £ is strengthening against the Euro. I hope they don't cut as it seems a waste of the very limited 'bullets they have left.
Agreed.
How much better it would be if the B of E raised interest rates by 0.5% "to cool the fast growing economy".
The economy is dead right now ! It does not need a 0.25% interest rate cut. It needs a mouth-to-mouth resuscitation !
Plainly, the economy isn't dead.
Though the way the BoE is behaving you'd think it's not far off...
They should have been taking the froth off the top of the asset bubble quite some time ago with some small interest rate rises and then they would have had more room to move now.
'I didn't say that. EEA + FoM will command 60% support in the country. That still respects "Brexit" as was written on the ballot paper. It won't make people like you happy. But then who cares ?
60% would not support the party which calls for it. But enough Tories would move away from them to the Liberals or any other party which calls for such an arrangement.'
Dream on, we didn't vote to leave the EU to have the same crap rehashed through the back door.
They should have been taking the froth off the top of the asset bubble quite some time ago with some small interest rate rises and then they would have had more room to move now.
Precisely. But that cnut in Number 11 was pulling the strings.
Interesting despite the near unanimity in the media that there'll be a rate cut the £ is strengthening against the Euro. I hope they don't cut as it seems a waste of the very limited 'bullets they have left.
Agreed.
How much better it would be if the B of E raised interest rates by 0.5% "to cool the fast growing economy".
The economy is dead right now ! It does not need a 0.25% interest rate cut. It needs a mouth-to-mouth resuscitation !
Plainly, the economy isn't dead.
Though the way the BoE is behaving you'd think it's not far off...
They should have been taking the froth off the top of the asset bubble quite some time ago with some small interest rate rises and then they would have had more room to move now.
He was appointed as Osborne's lackey and has acted as Osborne's lackey.
The former suffered from Greenspanitis in his obsession with securing mystic Carney, IMHO.
Loans that have interest rates linked to bank rate will fall but other rates such as personal mortgages will not because they are funded by retail savings and current account balances which already pay little or no interest rates and will not change.
They should have been taking the froth off the top of the asset bubble quite some time ago with some small interest rate rises and then they would have had more room to move now.
He was appointed as Osborne's lackey and has acted as Osborne's lackey.
The former suffered from Greenspanitis in his obsession with securing mystic Carney, IMHO.
The bank rate is set by the members of the Monetary Policy Committee on which Carney only has one vote and may even have voted against a change.
Clearly the markets were taken by surprise by something (more QE?). I'd have thought the rate cut would be priced in to the value of the pound.
Desperate measures are needed for desperate situations. The time is NOW.
Do you own a property? I guess the prospect of it losing some of its value might be considered desperate if you're thinking of downsizing for retirement.
I remember watching a report from Canada on Carney and the criticism is that after some fairly sensible measures during the crash (and due to previous policies they were already one of the best placed major economies), he then didn't turn the taps off and helped fuel what has been a massive house inflation over the past 5+ years.
Carney desperate to prove a personal point, has any former governor managed to talk down the UK economy so much ?
That's my total impression.
So tired of people trying to close down the debate by accusing others of "talking down" the economy, when they're just pointing out facts. It's the same as the "making political capital" accusation
BRING IT ON. We will go to the ENTIRE COUNTRY with an explicit manifesto commitment NOT to invoke Article 50 in the following 5 years.
Remember this is a General election. Not an advisory vote.
Wouldn't only the LDs have such an explicit commitment? I find it hard to believe Labour would take the risk to their northern heartlands by advocating not invoking article 50.
And for the complainers, surbiton is quite correct since we haven't invoked we could decide not to. Given the democratic mandate to invoke, it's likely only.a GE or a second referendum would provide sufficient cover for a government to decide not to invoke, both of which are unlikely to happen in part because of the risks against the odds right now, the public might vote not to but it wouldn't settle the issue (since the other side would just commit to doing it again, likely with a binding referendum next time).
They should have been taking the froth off the top of the asset bubble quite some time ago with some small interest rate rises and then they would have had more room to move now.
He was appointed as Osborne's lackey and has acted as Osborne's lackey.
The former suffered from Greenspanitis in his obsession with securing mystic Carney, IMHO.
The bank rate is set by the members of the Monetary Policy Committee on which Carney only has one vote and may even have voted against a change.
@GIN1138 Thanks for asking. He's had a worse week this week, having picked up an infection that required an emergency operation. He seems to be recovering from this, but I will find out more in a couple of hours.
Carney desperate to prove a personal point, has any former governor managed to talk down the UK economy so much ?
That's my total impression.
So tired of people trying to close down the debate by accusing others of "talking down" the economy, when they're just pointing out facts. It's the same as the "making political capital" accusation
Agreed. You should try coming to Scotland, where that kind of idiotic response is par for the course from the nationalists. "How dare people suggest that an independent Scotland would get anything but the highest possible credit rating from the agencies! They're talking the country down!"
On the new growth figures the money we might get back from no longer paying into the EU will be needed to support current spending plans and not for anything additional.
@GIN1138 Thanks for asking. He's had a worse week this week, having picked up an infection that required an emergency operation. He seems to be recovering from this, but I will find out more in a couple of hours.
They should have been taking the froth off the top of the asset bubble quite some time ago with some small interest rate rises and then they would have had more room to move now.
A few years ago I think it would have been almost received wisdom that near zero interest rates and printing money (which is basically what QE is in my view) were very bad ideas in almost any circumstances. These now seem to be the only things that the central bankers consider, and as far as I can see they're achieving absolutely nothing.
There is very little case for interest rate cut at this point outside of the "something must be done, this is something lets do it" argument. There is absolutely no case for a rise in interest rates, yes the economy has been bubbling along nicely but it has been broadly uninflationary. There may be a slight inflationary shock from Brexit but it will probably fall off, there isn't much evidence of inflation drivers pushing at the door. Suspect base rate will remain at very low levels for quite a while.
I don't agree that there is no case for a hike, although there's not enough of a case to make it likely. There would be benefits - stronger pound, and some slowing of the property market. These near zero rates make investments in boring stuff like property a good bet, whereas in an environment with higher rates there's more of an incentive to look for more dynamic investments.
On the new growth figures the money we might get back from no longer paying into the EU will be needed to support current spending plans and not for anything additional.
And the rest.
On the plus side I'm now £5 ~ £10 a month better off.
@Casino_Royale Yes, it's everyone's fault except Leavers. It's pure coincidence that confidence has gone through the floor since the Brexit vote, all down to those wicked Remainers not accepting the result.
@GIN1138 Thanks for asking. He's had a worse week this week, having picked up an infection that required an emergency operation. He seems to be recovering from this, but I will find out more in a couple of hours.
It's going to be a very long haul.
Sorry to hear that his progress is so slow. Good luck for future improvement.
Comments
BRING IT ON. We will go to the ENTIRE COUNTRY with an explicit manifesto commitment NOT to invoke Article 50 in the following 5 years.
Remember this is a General election. Not an advisory vote.
How much does it cost for pencils, trainspotting books and bicycles?
"In Australia, for example, the government often builds new infrastructure itself and then sells it on to pension funds to run them. This works because pension funds can’t afford to take the risk of new construction projects but can run them efficiently. And selling the assets means that government coffers are replenished rather than drained."
Does anyone know anything about this policy. It seems jolly sensible to me.
Remember when Blair went to the country promising no tuition fees???
About as unexpected as ASLEF calling for rail nstionalisation.
It's a point of view I suppose...
60% would not support the party which calls for it. But enough Tories would move away from them to the Liberals or any other party which calls for such an arrangement.
'BRING IT ON. We will go to the ENTIRE COUNTRY with an explicit manifesto commitment NOT to invoke Article 50 in the following 5 years.'
Are there any GE's that don't involve the ENTIRE COUNTRY ?
- Richard Osman
That time is not now, IMHO.
Hogan-Howe has made clear that the latest move is mainly PR, to get "the public" to realise vigilance against terrorism isn't just unnecessary health-and-safety nonsense. It's practically playing dress-up. The army have fought and lost two unnecessary and criminal wars abroad, against forces who were no threat to Britain whatsoever; now here's a genuinely needed role for them at home, but they're not being given it.
As things stand, security at many public events and crowded locations is absolute crap.
http://reut.rs/2aWL2H5
They should have been taking the froth off the top of the asset bubble quite some time ago with some small interest rate rises and then they would have had more room to move now.
'I didn't say that. EEA + FoM will command 60% support in the country. That still respects "Brexit" as was written on the ballot paper. It won't make people like you happy. But then who cares ?
60% would not support the party which calls for it. But enough Tories would move away from them to the Liberals or any other party which calls for such an arrangement.'
Dream on, we didn't vote to leave the EU to have the same crap rehashed through the back door.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36950738
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/03/ftse-100-to-open-lower-hsbc-gets-pummelled-and-next-faces-higher/
'Bank of England makes meaningless gesture. Yay.'
Carney desperate to prove a personal point, has any former governor managed to talk down the UK economy so much ?
REMAIN 48%
Suck it up, Surby baby!
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/761155003390230529
Until it has been invoked, nothing has happened !
The former suffered from Greenspanitis in his obsession with securing mystic Carney, IMHO.
'Carney really has been pretty awful.'
May should have dumped him along with Osborne and the rest of the Cameron clique
I'm sure I'll be accused of TALKING DOWN BRITAIN for linking to this tweet:
https://twitter.com/louisabojesen/status/761142793800708096
Seriously, it's Dubai, is it not?
Umm - is this now considered a must go destination or military mislabelled?
How are things? Is your partner recovering from his head injury?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36974551
And for the complainers, surbiton is quite correct since we haven't invoked we could decide not to. Given the democratic mandate to invoke, it's likely only.a GE or a second referendum would provide sufficient cover for a government to decide not to invoke, both of which are unlikely to happen in part because of the risks against the odds right now, the public might vote not to but it wouldn't settle the issue (since the other side would just commit to doing it again, likely with a binding referendum next time).
It's going to be a very long haul.
I had hoped your time off (albeit for deeply unpleasant reasons) would have provided you with some needed perspective.
I don't agree that there is no case for a hike, although there's not enough of a case to make it likely. There would be benefits - stronger pound, and some slowing of the property market. These near zero rates make investments in boring stuff like property a good bet, whereas in an environment with higher rates there's more of an incentive to look for more dynamic investments.
On the plus side I'm now £5 ~ £10 a month better off.
Rock bottom interest rates are here to stay until unemployment falls below 7%, Bank of England pledges
Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2385921/Rock-rates-stay-unemployment-falls-7--Bank-England-pledges.html#ixzz4GMU12Dc6
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Or in the real world, cop onto yourself.