Mr. Sandpit, I'd need rather splendid sales for that to happen [I'm comfortable with turbulence, unlike some here, but airports are not my favourite places].
Good luck with the splendid sales then, and see you here in December for the race!
Morning. Terrible news from London, hope it doesn't turn out to be anything organised.
I think Islamic terrorism has changed. If you think of 9/11 as the apogee of the large organised group, you've seen intelligence services successful break-up or break-into cells. It's been much harder for large groups of people to plan and execute things.
Indeed, it's striking that other than the Bataclan attack, it's hard to think of any act of Islamic terrorism in the West in the last five years has involved more than a single actor.
This is not because - I'm sure - ISIS and Al Queada and the like don't want to do big things with many people, but because the likelihood of being detected in the planning stage increases exponentially with every person involves. (A sort of Metcalfe's Law for likelihood of being found out.)
As a result the new mode of ISIS is to try and 'groom' disaffected Muslims in the West. Partly this will be done through the Mosques and traditional channels. But increasingly, I suspect, it's through on-line groups. Likely actors will be identified and then repeatedly encouraged and prodded and helped to go do something terrible. I suspect that many of the techniques used by child molestors will be used here as well.
The good news is that - because this is largely technology driven - there is plenty for the intelligence services to do. I suspect lists of people regularly using Tor or (slightly) anonymous overseas VPNs will be a starting point. I also suspect there are probably teams of people pretending to be slightly radicalised Muslims on-line to try and find the sources of the poison.
There will, of course, still be people "inspired" by ISIS out there. But I suspect that - just as the intelligence services did such a good job on clamping down on terrorist networks post 9/11 - they will do a surprisingly good job now. It's just that going from one attack every month to one every three doesn't make great headlines.
Good and accurate analysis. Horrific those these incidents they need to be kept in perspective. We we have had 2 or 3 deaths in in the 11 years since 7/7 -much less I suspect than, say, homophobic murders over the same time span.
Won't stop the usual suspects playing it up for political purposes though. Some must have been so gutted when Jo Cox's murderer turned out to be a white far-right terrorist rather than a brown islamic one.
Mr. Sandpit, ahem, I'm hoping to release it in December
Mr. Eagles, you're mad as a mongoose.
Miss Plato, I remember reading it's cheaper to fly to India and buy some sort of garment (saris?) and fly back than it is to buy them in the UK. On the Vietnam special, Top Gear's chaps got very good suits overnight for cheap prices.
If I was writing a thread for PB this weekend, it would be about 'Is Donald Trump following the Monty Brewster strategy for losing elections?'
We are of course in the post convention phase where there is a hreat deal of unreality by I am currently guffawing at all those PB sages who said Trump was going to masterfully pivot to the centre and that every gaffe he executed was Good News for Trump.
The few days I was in New York, I spoke to some American friends, even the GOPers were appalled, even if you ignore the humanity angle, you do not go to war with the family of a dead soldier, even if they are Muslims.
No wonder Republicans are publicly endorsing Hillary
Either there's more to the story of the soldier's parents, or Trump's fallen into the trap and made a complete arse of himself.
Still don't like the use of civvies at conferences though, they're not media trained and don't expect to end up in this sort of storm.
On topic, unless events intervene with a very good reason, I don't think May will go short of 2020. Difficulty getting Brexit through parliament might be an 'event' that provides mandate, means and motive to go to the country early (particularly if it's the Labour / LD peers being awkward) but there aren't many such possible events and those which there are won't necessarily come about by any means. And not competing in constituencies based off 20-year old data would be helpful too.
Sensible for all parties to contingency plan though.
As a non-Conservative, I can obviously see the cheap advantage and thrills a snap election and a landslide would bring (and the subsequent problems).
My impression of the formation of the new Conservative Government was that it was predicated on three things:
1) The purging of Cameron/Osborne 2) The desire to return to solid Conservative governance albeit, it seems to me, from a strongly interventionist activist Heseltine-type stance. 3) The process of exiting the EU - May has put the likes of Davis, Fox and Johnson where they are for a reason - one part of it is for them to be human shields for her if it all goes wrong and second, to take the process forward.
I can quite understand given the disparate aims of LEAVE, nobody was going to trigger Article 50 on the day after the referendum (I thought Cameron might as a final act of spite) but say six months to set up the organisation, do some more thinking and reach a collective position doesn't seem unreasonable so I'd be looking at fairly early next year with a view to complete exit by early 2019 and an election to follow.
If I was writing a thread for PB this weekend, it would be about 'Is Donald Trump following the Monty Brewster strategy for losing elections?'
We are of course in the post convention phase where there is a hreat deal of unreality by I am currently guffawing at all those PB sages who said Trump was going to masterfully pivot to the centre and that every gaffe he executed was Good News for Trump.
The few days I was in New York, I spoke to some American friends, even the GOPers were appalled, even if you ignore the humanity angle, you do not go to war with the family of a dead soldier, even if they are Muslims.
No wonder Republicans are publicly endorsing Hillary
Either there's more to the story of the soldier's parents, or Trump's fallen into the trap and made a complete arse of himself.
Still don't like the use of civvies at conferences though, they're not media trained and don't expect to end up in this sort of storm.
If they speak at one they have to know it is a possibility a storm may occur, I don't think lack of media training excuses not being aware of that possibility. Politics is ugly, civilians getting involved in such a big event will not be immune to that. I imagine in this case it is uglier than predicted, but it's always a possibility, regrettably.
< I think you'll find Charles is number one flyer on the site!
Yes, for me trains are business, planes are leisure.
I love long-haul flying - stick me in Business or Premium Economy at a pinch and a flight to Singapore, Hong Kong or across the Atlantic and I'm happy.
I've never had poor service - the likes of Singapore Airlines and Air New Zealand are very good and even British Airways aren't too bad. I hear good things about Qatar Airways but haven't had the pleasure yet.
Turbulence - the worst I ever encountered was on a flight from Napier to Auckland due to storms over the central ranges. One hour of purgatory though we've had plenty of fun from Las Vegas trying to get over the Rockies in storms but once we cleared that, it was fine.
ha - I'm the precisely opposite: planes for function, trains for fun.
I don't get the attraction of business class on aircraft (or more accurately, I don't think it's worth the cost; I'd happily take an upgrade). Yes, you're away from economy passengers and yes, the facilities and service are better but there's something unbalanced about paying the same for a flight as for a decent three-week holiday. But then I view all air travel as inherently boring.
What clamour?. Nobody I meet ever mentions it. In any case it is virtually impossible to create a scenario to have one, given the fixed term Parliament. If the Conservatives contrive twice to create a vote of no confidence in themselves they will be a laughing stock. Please forget an election it will be in 2020.
the clamour appears to be from the Lib Dems.
1) little to lose ha ha 2) hoping somehow it makes exiting their beloved EU less likely.
< I think you'll find Charles is number one flyer on the site!
Yes, for me trains are business, planes are leisure.
I love long-haul flying - stick me in Business or Premium Economy at a pinch and a flight to Singapore, Hong Kong or across the Atlantic and I'm happy.
I've never had poor service - the likes of Singapore Airlines and Air New Zealand are very good and even British Airways aren't too bad. I hear good things about Qatar Airways but haven't had the pleasure yet.
Turbulence - the worst I ever encountered was on a flight from Napier to Auckland due to storms over the central ranges. One hour of purgatory though we've had plenty of fun from Las Vegas trying to get over the Rockies in storms but once we cleared that, it was fine.
ha - I'm the precisely opposite: planes for function, trains for fun.
I don't get the attraction of business class on aircraft (or more accurately, I don't think it's worth the cost; I'd happily take an upgrade). Yes, you're away from economy passengers and yes, the facilities and service are better but there's something unbalanced about paying the same for a flight as for a decent three-week holiday. But then I view all air travel as inherently boring.
Once you fly non economy, you can never go back.
I'd happily take an upgrade (and have done) but nicer seats or pods, free drinks, more cabin staff and being away from some people you'd happily be away from still aren't worth the price to me. Obviously, it must be to others and I'm happy that they're willing to subsidise my cheapo seats in third.
Mr. Eagles, what's your view on the customs union, regarding our exit from the EU?
I'm fine with us remaining a member of it, though I know I'm in a minority with that view.
Though you were also fine with us remaining so that doesn't say much. Being out of the EU but in the customs union seems to be the worst combination imaginable.
I read something the other day, I can't remember where, that one of the options was for us to engage in a phased exit, so we'd Leave the EU on Day 1, but remain part/adhere to the rules of the single market and custom unions for x years, and withdraw from them both within a set time frame.
On topic, unless events intervene with a very good reason, I don't think May will go short of 2020. Difficulty getting Brexit through parliament might be an 'event' that provides mandate, means and motive to go to the country early (particularly if it's the Labour / LD peers being awkward) but there aren't many such possible events and those which there are won't necessarily come about by any means. And not competing in constituencies based off 20-year old data would be helpful too.
Sensible for all parties to contingency plan though.
As a non-Conservative, I can obviously see the cheap advantage and thrills a snap election and a landslide would bring (and the subsequent problems).
My impression of the formation of the new Conservative Government was that it was predicated on three things:
1) The purging of Cameron/Osborne 2) The desire to return to solid Conservative governance albeit, it seems to me, from a strongly interventionist activist Heseltine-type stance. 3) The process of exiting the EU - May has put the likes of Davis, Fox and Johnson where they are for a reason - one part of it is for them to be human shields for her if it all goes wrong and second, to take the process forward.
I can quite understand given the disparate aims of LEAVE, nobody was going to trigger Article 50 on the day after the referendum (I thought Cameron might as a final act of spite) but say six months to set up the organisation, do some more thinking and reach a collective position doesn't seem unreasonable so I'd be looking at fairly early next year with a view to complete exit by early 2019 and an election to follow.
I agree. I think it makes sense to have Brexit concluded by the GE. The last-ditchers will no doubt still complain and UKIP will no doubt try to make what they can of that but in a post-Brexit world, their role will change and that will be more a subsidiary string to their electoral bow. Besides, if Corbyn or similar is still running Labour, there's enough fear from that threat to drag recalcitrant Tories back into the fold.
It's only if Parliament starts playing silly over Article 50 or other associated legislation that there becomes a case for an early dissolution (and, for that matter, the likely means for it).
For sub 3hr flights, I don't think it.makes any difference. But say for trans Atlantic it is just so much better, more relaxing etc etc etc.
Yes, within Europe I'm not that bothered but a 9 or 10 hour flight to California is an integral part of the holiday and given that US accommodation is so cheap relative to European rooms, the money spent on the flight isn't so bad.
After a comfortable flight in Business, even LAX doesn't bother me.
I aspire to Charles's regular sojourns in First but, as someone once said, I know my place.
Miss Plato, to 'reassure the public' will be the line used.
It could actually just be a lunatic. But if it were, then one would've expected a name/description to have emerged by now. If it's a terrorist, there could be reasons not to publicise his identity as yet. But then, if it were, flying the mental illness flag (which can't be especially pleasant for those who are mentally ill) is misleading at best.
Miss Plato, to 'reassure the public' will be the line used.
It could actually just be a lunatic. But if it were, then one would've expected a name/description to have emerged by now. If it's a terrorist, there could be reasons not to publicise his identity as yet. But then, if it were, flying the mental illness flag (which can't be especially pleasant for those who are mentally ill) is misleading at best.
Mental illness and terrorism aren't mutually exclusive.
I have to admit that fashion passes me by and always did, but £170 for a shirt? Now come on.
OK, I was the known as the 'style assassin' when I was younger, but I believe a good-looking woman still looks good in a black bin bag. Not sure about men, but even I suspect the Italians go way too far. As long as your shirt doesn't have too many holes in it, you're fine.
For followers of Scottish sub-samples, yet another sub sample to have the Tories comfortably in second place.
Caveat sample size 161
SNP 50, Con 25, Lab 13, LD 5, UKIP 3
The detailed data tables throw up some caveats about the headline 14% lead , Before elimination of DK and WNV and certainty to vote the Conservative lead was actually down from 10% in the previous poll to 7% in this poll . After adjustments the headline lead went up from 12% to 14% . As often the adjustments make more difference than changes in the raw data .
For sub 3hr flights, I don't think it.makes any difference. But say for trans Atlantic it is just so much better, more relaxing etc etc etc.
Yes, within Europe I'm not that bothered but a 9 or 10 hour flight to California is an integral part of the holiday and given that US accommodation is so cheap relative to European rooms, the money spent on the flight isn't so bad.
After a comfortable flight in Business, even LAX doesn't bother me.
I aspire to Charles's regular sojourns in First but, as someone once said, I know my place.
As a young student, the first trans Atlantic flight I ever took I some how got upgraded to first (to this day I have no idea, I presume a fat fingered mistake) & it has been downhill since then!
< I think you'll find Charles is number one flyer on the site!
Yes, for me trains are business, planes are leisure.
I love long-haul flying - stick me in Business or Premium Economy at a pinch and a flight to Singapore, Hong Kong or across the Atlantic and I'm happy.
I've never had poor service - the likes of Singapore Airlines and Air New Zealand are very good and even British Airways aren't too bad. I hear good things about Qatar Airways but haven't had the pleasure yet.
Turbulence - the worst I ever encountered was on a flight from Napier to Auckland due to storms over the central ranges. One hour of purgatory though we've had plenty of fun from Las Vegas trying to get over the Rockies in storms but once we cleared that, it was fine.
ha - I'm the precisely opposite: planes for function, trains for fun.
I don't get the attraction of business class on aircraft (or more accurately, I don't think it's worth the cost; I'd happily take an upgrade). Yes, you're away from economy passengers and yes, the facilities and service are better but there's something unbalanced about paying the same for a flight as for a decent three-week holiday. But then I view all air travel as inherently boring.
Once you fly non economy, you can never go back.
I'd happily take an upgrade (and have done) but nicer seats or pods, free drinks, more cabin staff and being away from some people you'd happily be away from still aren't worth the price to me. Obviously, it must be to others and I'm happy that they're willing to subsidise my cheapo seats in third.
Yep. I might pay £900 one way rather than £600 for more legroom, no screaming babies, oiks (not snobbery, I've had loud drunks looking for a scrap near me before) better food and drink and a comfortable passage on a 10 hour+ flight.
I won't pay thousands for the same on any shorter flight. Think what more you could do with the same money when you land..
For followers of Scottish sub-samples, yet another sub sample to have the Tories comfortably in second place.
Caveat sample size 161
SNP 50, Con 25, Lab 13, LD 5, UKIP 3
The detailed data tables throw up some caveats about the headline 14% lead , Before elimination of DK and WNV and certainty to vote the Conservative lead was actually down from 10% in the previous poll to 7% in this poll . After adjustments the headline lead went up from 12% to 14% . As often the adjustments make more difference than changes in the raw data .
Name the last General Election where the adjustments over-estimated the Tory lead.
Mr. Smith, that's true. Believing a sky fairy wants you to kill innocent people isn't a sign of being a balanced fellow. However, by putting mental illness front and centre it's a clear tactic to try and draw people away from the terrorism angle (which may be legitimate, if the guy's 'just' a nutcase).
Mr. Owls, are you not concerned the 50,000 or so £25 people being disqualified from voting will harm Corbyn's prospects of retaining the leadership?
Miss Plato, to 'reassure the public' will be the line used.
It could actually just be a lunatic. But if it were, then one would've expected a name/description to have emerged by now. If it's a terrorist, there could be reasons not to publicise his identity as yet. But then, if it were, flying the mental illness flag (which can't be especially pleasant for those who are mentally ill) is misleading at best.
Exactly, I don't mind the coppers not saying anything as 'lines of enquiry are followed' - but jumping to say it's mental illness is just wrong. We do get occasional terrible incidents where someone goes bananas without any political or religious agenda - thankfully not very many.
Mr. Eagles, what's your view on the customs union, regarding our exit from the EU?
I'm fine with us remaining a member of it, though I know I'm in a minority with that view.
Though you were also fine with us remaining so that doesn't say much. Being out of the EU but in the customs union seems to be the worst combination imaginable.
I read something the other day, I can't remember where, that one of the options was for us to engage in a phased exit, so we'd Leave the EU on Day 1, but remain part/adhere to the rules of the single market and custom unions for x years, and withdraw from them both within a set time frame.
Surely we'd have to leave the customs union immediately as well since we'd be unable to conclude our own independent trade deals without leaving.
I'll try and dig out the article, but it was more we'd adhere to the rules of the customs union, whilst sorting out our own trade deals at the same time.
Gist was the time frames made exiting the EU and having all the new trade deals in place for Day 1 of our exit unlikely.
Do you have a source for those figures? That's quite a dramatic continuation of the fall in recent years.
Though I think 4 years are too long. Realistically if there is no early election then come 2020 we need to be out or else there'll be problems with the election. You wouldn't want the exit to occur in the weeks before just in case there's a problem.
So realistically again the deadline for exiting is in 2019, to have the job completed smoothly in time for seeking a 2020 re-election.
A 2019 exit works with a 2017 A50 invocation and no extension necessary.
Last ONS figures I saw were for 2014 when EU exports were ~44%. I know the 2015 figures came out very recently, but I'm buggered if I can find them.
If I was writing a thread for PB this weekend, it would be about 'Is Donald Trump following the Monty Brewster strategy for losing elections?'
We are of course in the post convention phase where there is a hreat deal of unreality by I am currently guffawing at all those PB sages who said Trump was going to masterfully pivot to the centre and that every gaffe he executed was Good News for Trump.
The few days I was in New York, I spoke to some American friends, even the GOPers were appalled, even if you ignore the humanity angle, you do not go to war with the family of a dead soldier, even if they are Muslims.
No wonder Republicans are publicly endorsing Hillary
Either there's more to the story of the soldier's parents, or Trump's fallen into the trap and made a complete arse of himself.
Still don't like the use of civvies at conferences though, they're not media trained and don't expect to end up in this sort of storm.
If they speak at one they have to know it is a possibility a storm may occur, I don't think lack of media training excuses not being aware of that possibility. Politics is ugly, civilians getting involved in such a big event will not be immune to that. I imagine in this case it is uglier than predicted, but it's always a possibility, regrettably.
I don't think they realise how big the storm can be, and the effect it can have on their lives often for weeks and months afterwards. The parties (on both sides of the Atlantic) are also very poor at handling their civvies in the aftermath - when the attention goes bonkers they should be flown to a villa in Barbados for a couple of weeks, rather than left on their own to defend literally hundreds of press outside their homes.
Especially so in this case, where the subject attached the political opponent, and there would have been a reasonable expectation of a response from Trump keeping the story going.
Do you have a source for those figures? That's quite a dramatic continuation of the fall in recent years.
Though I think 4 years are too long. Realistically if there is no early election then come 2020 we need to be out or else there'll be problems with the election. You wouldn't want the exit to occur in the weeks before just in case there's a problem.
So realistically again the deadline for exiting is in 2019, to have the job completed smoothly in time for seeking a 2020 re-election.
A 2019 exit works with a 2017 A50 invocation and no extension necessary.
Last ONS figures I saw were for 2014 when EU exports were ~44%. I know the 2015 figures came out very recently, but I'm buggered if I can find them.
Those are the last figures I saw too. A fall from 44% to 40% in a year is quite dramatic. A fall to 25% by 2020 is even more dramatic.
I agree. I think it makes sense to have Brexit concluded by the GE. The last-ditchers will no doubt still complain and UKIP will no doubt try to make what they can of that but in a post-Brexit world, their role will change and that will be more a subsidiary string to their electoral bow. Besides, if Corbyn or similar is still running Labour, there's enough fear from that threat to drag recalcitrant Tories back into the fold.
It's only if Parliament starts playing silly over Article 50 or other associated legislation that there becomes a case for an early dissolution (and, for that matter, the likely means for it).
Good Lord, I agree with you. That doesn't often happen. There may be some timing issues over invoking Article 50 - whether it happens early or mid 2017 and that can be discussed - but it has to happen, the result of the Referendum is the mandate for that.
Leaving the EU along with setting up new trade deals will be a huge task but it's achievable and, as we've seen, plenty of non-EU countries want it to happen.
Finishing that by 2019 and going to the country in 2020 seems eminently reasonable. The re-alignment of political parties during this process will be interesting.
If all the LDs are going to be is a reverse UKIP, then I'm gone from the Party. Tim can argue for electoral reform because it was AV (which has never been LD policy) rather than STV which was rejected in 2011 and I would support that.
However, the country has narrowly but decisively rejected the EU in its current form. We cannot argue to return to the EU on the terms on which we left (which wouldn't be available anyway). The Party has to make the liberal case in a post-EU world as against those who would turn inward completely and there are arguments on immigration, international collaboration and co-operation and global issues which liberals can and should be making.
I have to admit that fashion passes me by and always did, but £170 for a shirt? Now come on.
OK, I was the known as the 'style assassin' when I was younger, but I believe a good-looking woman still looks good in a black bin bag. Not sure about men, but even I suspect the Italians go way too far. As long as your shirt doesn't have too many holes in it, you're fine.
Mr Dancer, congrats on your success.
I have occasionally paid close to a grand on a shirt (for an Italian shirt)
< I think you'll find Charles is number one flyer on the site!
Yes, for me trains are business, planes are leisure.
I love long-haul flying - stick me in Business or Premium Economy at a pinch and a flight to Singapore, Hong Kong or across the Atlantic and I'm happy.
I've never had poor service - the likes of Singapore Airlines and Air New Zealand are very good and even British Airways aren't too bad. I hear good things about Qatar Airways but haven't had the pleasure yet.
Turbulence - the worst I ever encountered was on a flight from Napier to Auckland due to storms over the central ranges. One hour of purgatory though we've had plenty of fun from Las Vegas trying to get over the Rockies in storms but once we cleared that, it was fine.
ha - I'm the precisely opposite: planes for function, trains for fun.
I don't get the attraction of business class on aircraft (or more accurately, I don't think it's worth the cost; I'd happily take an upgrade). Yes, you're away from economy passengers and yes, the facilities and service are better but there's something unbalanced about paying the same for a flight as for a decent three-week holiday. But then I view all air travel as inherently boring.
Once you fly non economy, you can never go back.
I'd happily take an upgrade (and have done) but nicer seats or pods, free drinks, more cabin staff and being away from some people you'd happily be away from still aren't worth the price to me. Obviously, it must be to others and I'm happy that they're willing to subsidise my cheapo seats in third.
Yep. I might pay £900 one way rather than £600 for more legroom, no screaming babies, oiks (not snobbery, I've had loud drunks looking for a scrap near me before) better food and drink and a comfortable passage on a 10 hour+ flight.
I won't pay thousands for the same on any shorter flight. Think what more you could do with the same money when you land..
BA World Traveller Plus is good for that. You get some extra legroom and dedicated cabin crew for a couple of dozen pax. Usually full of business and older travellers wanting to sleep rather than party on a night flight. I find it worth the extra if I'm paying for myself, Emirates are talking about introducing it too.
The Gravy Train full of entitled Lab MPs is about to hit the buffers
At which point, neither Corbyn *nor* the PLP will be electable.
All those likely to de-selected will jump, so some havoc there as well...
2020 is gone IMO thanks to the PLP being stuffed with Tory Lite MPs for 15 years via Blairite only shortlists.
A 2025 united Socialist Labour with Socialist candidates is the aim.
How many Tory election victories are you trying to generate here, or are you aiming to give the Lib Dems the chance to regain their place as the second party of Britain, with UKIP on one edge and Labour on the other?
If I was writing a thread for PB this weekend, it would be about 'Is Donald Trump following the Monty Brewster strategy for losing elections?'
We are of course in the post convention phase where there is a hreat deal of unreality by I am currently guffawing at all those PB sages who said Trump was going to masterfully pivot to the centre and that every gaffe he executed was Good News for Trump.
The few days I was in New York, I spoke to some American friends, even the GOPers were appalled, even if you ignore the humanity angle, you do not go to war with the family of a dead soldier, even if they are Muslims.
No wonder Republicans are publicly endorsing Hillary
Either there's more to the story of the soldier's parents, or Trump's fallen into the trap and made a complete arse of himself.
Still don't like the use of civvies at conferences though, they're not media trained and don't expect to end up in this sort of storm.
If they speak at one they have to know it is a possibility a storm may occur, I don't think lack of media training excuses not being aware of that possibility. Politics is ugly, civilians getting involved in such a big event will not be immune to that. I imagine in this case it is uglier than predicted, but it's always a possibility, regrettably.
I don't think they realise how big the storm can be, and the effect it can have on their lives often for weeks and months afterwards. The parties (on both sides of the Atlantic) are also very poor at handling their civvies in the aftermath - when the attention goes bonkers they should be flown to a villa in Barbados for a couple of weeks, rather than left on their own to defend literally hundreds of press outside their homes.
Especially so in this case, where the subject attached the political opponent, and there would have been a reasonable expectation of a response from Trump keeping the story going.
Deleting his whole website didn't help him either. It just set off the Wayback Machine warriors.
The Gravy Train full of entitled Lab MPs is about to hit the buffers
At which point, neither Corbyn *nor* the PLP will be electable.
All those likely to de-selected will jump, so some havoc there as well...
2020 is gone IMO thanks to the PLP being stuffed with Tory Lite MPs for 15 years via Blairite only shortlists.
A 2025 united Socialist Labour with Socialist candidates is the aim.
How many Tory election victories are you trying to generate here, or are you aiming to give the Lib Dems the chance to regain their place as the second party of Britain, with UKIP on one edge and Labour on the other?
Shh. I think BJO is on the right track here. The country is crying out for a true left wing alternative.
Miss Plato, to 'reassure the public' will be the line used.
It could actually just be a lunatic. But if it were, then one would've expected a name/description to have emerged by now. If it's a terrorist, there could be reasons not to publicise his identity as yet. But then, if it were, flying the mental illness flag (which can't be especially pleasant for those who are mentally ill) is misleading at best.
Exactly, I don't mind the coppers not saying anything as 'lines of enquiry are followed' - but jumping to say it's mental illness is just wrong. We do get occasional terrible incidents where someone goes bananas without any political or religious agenda - thankfully not very many.
Most people with mental illness are more likely to harm themselves or their immediate family than random strangers. It is not unknown of course. But without knowing what is behind this latest sad incident there does seem to be a meme developing which seems to suggest that terrorists are not motivated by some ideology but are only acting as they do because of mental illness. This seems to me to be a mischaracterization: a person with mental issues may be easier to radicalize and persuade to doing such acts but the motivation behind it is not the illness but the ideology. By focusing on the former, we risk ignoring the latter.
People with mental illness should not become the latest scapegoats because we do not want to put the blame on the terrorist ideology and those who propagate it.
At any event, let us hope that this incident is not a terrorist one. It is quite sad enough as it is.
I have to admit that fashion passes me by and always did, but £170 for a shirt? Now come on.
OK, I was the known as the 'style assassin' when I was younger, but I believe a good-looking woman still looks good in a black bin bag. Not sure about men, but even I suspect the Italians go way too far. As long as your shirt doesn't have too many holes in it, you're fine.
Mr Dancer, congrats on your success.
I have occasionally paid close to a grand on a shirt (for an Italian shirt)
I hope you have had plenty of use out of it.
I am prepared to pay a lot for clothes (nothing like in your league), but only if I expect to wear them pretty much every other day. I reckon I'm doing badly if an item of clothing ends up costing more than about 25p per day of use. I once spent £400 on a suit, but I've worn the jacket it pretty much every work day (except Fridays) for the last nine years. (Obviously the trousers need replacing far more often).
The Gravy Train full of entitled Lab MPs is about to hit the buffers
Why not deselect your nose to teach your face a good lesson?
To be fair just what sort of good job is the PLP doing? They're supposed to be the "electable" ones but couldn't run a whelk stall between them.
It isn't, but I can think of nothing more likely to put the electorate off than wholesale replacement with complete amateurs. There is no degree of incompetence such that you can't match and surpass it.
I have to admit that fashion passes me by and always did, but £170 for a shirt? Now come on.
OK, I was the known as the 'style assassin' when I was younger, but I believe a good-looking woman still looks good in a black bin bag. Not sure about men, but even I suspect the Italians go way too far. As long as your shirt doesn't have too many holes in it, you're fine.
Mr Dancer, congrats on your success.
I have occasionally paid close to a grand on a shirt (for an Italian shirt)
I hope you have had plenty of use out of it.
I am prepared to pay a lot for clothes (nothing like in your league), but only if I expect to wear them pretty much every other day. I reckon I'm doing badly if an item of clothing ends up costing more than about 25p per day of use. I once spent £400 on a suit, but I've worn the jacket it pretty much every work day (except Fridays) for the last nine years. (Obviously the trousers need replacing far more often).
Usually when I buy work suits, I always buy one jacket and two pairs of trousers.
As a rule of thumb, the trousers last half as long as the jacket.
If I was writing a thread for PB this weekend, it would be about 'Is Donald Trump following the Monty Brewster strategy for losing elections?'
We are of course in the post convention phase where there is a hreat deal of unreality by I am currently guffawing at all those PB sages who said Trump was going to masterfully pivot to the centre and that every gaffe he executed was Good News for Trump.
The few days I was in New York, I spoke to some American friends, even the GOPers were appalled, even if you ignore the humanity angle, you do not go to war with the family of a dead soldier, even if they are Muslims.
No wonder Republicans are publicly endorsing Hillary
Either there's more to the story of the soldier's parents, or Trump's fallen into the trap and made a complete arse of himself.
Still don't like the use of civvies at conferences though, they're not media trained and don't expect to end up in this sort of storm.
If they speak at one they have to know it is a possibility a storm may occur, I don't think lack of media training excuses not being aware of that possibility. Politics is ugly, civilians getting involved in such a big event will not be immune to that. I imagine in this case it is uglier than predicted, but it's always a possibility, regrettably.
I don't think they realise how big the storm can be, and the effect it can have on their lives often for weeks and months afterwards. The parties (on both sides of the Atlantic) are also very poor at handling their civvies in the aftermath - when the attention goes bonkers they should be flown to a villa in Barbados for a couple of weeks, rather than left on their own to defend literally hundreds of press outside their homes.
Especially so in this case, where the subject attached the political opponent, and there would have been a reasonable expectation of a response from Trump keeping the story going.
Deleting his whole website didn't help him either. It just set off the Wayback Machine warriors.
Didn't see that. What was the website, was it a tribute to his son or something more party political?
I have to admit that fashion passes me by and always did, but £170 for a shirt? Now come on.
OK, I was the known as the 'style assassin' when I was younger, but I believe a good-looking woman still looks good in a black bin bag. Not sure about men, but even I suspect the Italians go way too far. As long as your shirt doesn't have too many holes in it, you're fine.
Mr Dancer, congrats on your success.
I have occasionally paid close to a grand on a shirt (for an Italian shirt)
I hope you have had plenty of use out of it.
I am prepared to pay a lot for clothes (nothing like in your league), but only if I expect to wear them pretty much every other day. I reckon I'm doing badly if an item of clothing ends up costing more than about 25p per day of use. I once spent £400 on a suit, but I've worn the jacket it pretty much every work day (except Fridays) for the last nine years. (Obviously the trousers need replacing far more often).
Always buy suits with two pairs of trousers, saves so many jackets from a premature trip to the charity shop!
Edit: @TSE beat me to the point, even if he does spend silly money on lairy shirts!
If I was writing a thread for PB this weekend, it would be about 'Is Donald Trump following the Monty Brewster strategy for losing elections?'
We are of course in the post convention phase where there is a hreat deal of unreality by I am currently guffawing at all those PB sages who said Trump was going to masterfully pivot to the centre and that every gaffe he executed was Good News for Trump.
The few days I was in New York, I spoke to some American friends, even the GOPers were appalled, even if you ignore the humanity angle, you do not go to war with the family of a dead soldier, even if they are Muslims.
No wonder Republicans are publicly endorsing Hillary
Either there's more to the story of the soldier's parents, or Trump's fallen into the trap and made a complete arse of himself.
Still don't like the use of civvies at conferences though, they're not media trained and don't expect to end up in this sort of storm.
If they speak at one they have to know it is a possibility a storm may occur, I don't think lack of media training excuses not being aware of that possibility. Politics is ugly, civilians getting involved in such a big event will not be immune to that. I imagine in this case it is uglier than predicted, but it's always a possibility, regrettably.
I don't think they realise how big the storm can be, and the effect it can have on their lives often for weeks and months afterwards. The parties (on both sides of the Atlantic) are also very poor at handling their civvies in the aftermath - when the attention goes bonkers they should be flown to a villa in Barbados for a couple of weeks, rather than left on their own to defend literally hundreds of press outside their homes.
Especially so in this case, where the subject attached the political opponent, and there would have been a reasonable expectation of a response from Trump keeping the story going.
Deleting his whole website didn't help him either. It just set off the Wayback Machine warriors.
Which is just a fancy way of saying that people reasonably thought "that's inneressing, wonder what it said?", and found out. (It's not that interesting btw. He is a big shot lawyer with strong pre existing Democrat connections, but then all US law firms seem to have strong political connections one way or the other).
Miss Plato, to 'reassure the public' will be the line used.
It could actually just be a lunatic. But if it were, then one would've expected a name/description to have emerged by now. If it's a terrorist, there could be reasons not to publicise his identity as yet. But then, if it were, flying the mental illness flag (which can't be especially pleasant for those who are mentally ill) is misleading at best.
Exactly, I don't mind the coppers not saying anything as 'lines of enquiry are followed' - but jumping to say it's mental illness is just wrong. We do get occasional terrible incidents where someone goes bananas without any political or religious agenda - thankfully not very many.
Most people with mental illness are more likely to harm themselves or their immediate family than random strangers. It is not unknown of course. But without knowing what is behind this latest sad incident there does seem to be a meme developing which seems to suggest that terrorists are not motivated by some ideology but are only acting as they do because of mental illness. This seems to me to be a mischaracterization: a person with mental issues may be easier to radicalize and persuade to doing such acts but the motivation behind it is not the illness but the ideology. By focusing on the former, we risk ignoring the latter.
People with mental illness should not become the latest scapegoats because we do not want to put the blame on the terrorist ideology and those who propagate it.
At any event, let us hope that this incident is not a terrorist one. It is quite sad enough as it is.
I know a couple of guys with schizophrenia - they get enough stigma without adding more. They experienced significant hostility when the media went through a psycho-killer phase a few years ago.
I'm of the view that terrorist organisations seek out the easily led/mentally ill as useful cannon-fodder. After all, why lose your generals when you can groom the expendable and gullible? As a percentage of the population - I'd imagine they're more prevalent than the master manipulators/sociopaths.
Do you have a source for those figures? That's quite a dramatic continuation of the fall in recent years.
Though I think 4 years are too long. Realistically if there is no early election then come 2020 we need to be out or else there'll be problems with the election. You wouldn't want the exit to occur in the weeks before just in case there's a problem.
So realistically again the deadline for exiting is in 2019, to have the job completed smoothly in time for seeking a 2020 re-election.
A 2019 exit works with a 2017 A50 invocation and no extension necessary.
------------------------ ------------------------
The 2015 Pink Book figures are out now and show the share of UK exports of goods and services to the EU28 at 43.6% for 2015. If we correct for a couple of other things like Rotterdam trade and looking at value-added trade rather than gross value, that can come down a few percentage points more to maybe under 40%.
The share has dropped around 10 percentage points since 2006, which is a big shift. Certainly if that trend continued, Max's numbers would be right. That may be pushing things.
If we make some reasonable assumptions about EU/ROW growth over the next 20 years, though, we can get the EU share of UK exports down another 10 percentage points or so.
That's just based on the recent relationships of exports with relative growth rates in the different areas.
The thornier question is how much reorientation of trade happens as a result of unwinding the current system of trade preferences (tariffs and even more important non-tariff barriers) which favours EU trade over trade with the ROW.
That's a lot harder to work out especially as the non-tariff effects are tricky to pin down. It also depends crucially on what new trading arrangements are put in place both for EU and non-EU trade.
There are some estimates out there, but not as many as you might think. Some have suggested that there could be quite large effects, especially if UK trade with the US is liberalised significantly.
Personally I would think that EU trade is unlikely to drop to 25% in the next 20 years. But even a share around 30-35% would be a massive shift from the peak shares seen in the early 1990s and would render EU membership redundant from a strictly economic point of view.
Miss Plato, to 'reassure the public' will be the line used.
It could actually just be a lunatic. But if it were, then one would've expected a name/description to have emerged by now. If it's a terrorist, there could be reasons not to publicise his identity as yet. But then, if it were, flying the mental illness flag (which can't be especially pleasant for those who are mentally ill) is misleading at best.
Exactly, I don't mind the coppers not saying anything as 'lines of enquiry are followed' - but jumping to say it's mental illness is just wrong. We do get occasional terrible incidents where someone goes bananas without any political or religious agenda - thankfully not very many.
Most people with mental illness are more likely to harm themselves or their immediate family than random strangers. It is not unknown of course. But without knowing what is behind this latest sad incident there does seem to be a meme developing which seems to suggest that terrorists are not motivated by some ideology but are only acting as they do because of mental illness. This seems to me to be a mischaracterization: a person with mental issues may be easier to radicalize and persuade to doing such acts but the motivation behind it is not the illness but the ideology. By focusing on the former, we risk ignoring the latter.
People with mental illness should not become the latest scapegoats because we do not want to put the blame on the terrorist ideology and those who propagate it.
At any event, let us hope that this incident is not a terrorist one. It is quite sad enough as it is.
I know a couple of guys with schizophrenia - they get enough stigma without adding more. They experienced significant hostility when the media went through a psycho-killer phase a few years ago.
I'm of the view that terrorist organisations seek out the easily led/mentally ill as useful cannon-fodder. After all, why lose your generals when you can groom the expendable and gullible? As a percentage of the population - I'd imagine they're more prevalent than the master manipulators/sociopaths.
An interesting research finding is that 419 scams are incredibly poorly written on purpose. It's a really cheap way of screening out all but the most gullible. A more plausible and literate style gets poorer results.
Back to twitter, Tim Marshall's just posted that the new Japanese Defence Minister is a 'full on hardliner'.
That could have implications for both attitudes and behaviours towards North Korea and China, regarding the disputed islands that both Japan and China claim.
Miss Plato, to 'reassure the public' will be the line used.
It could actually just be a lunatic. But if it were, then one would've expected a name/description to have emerged by now. If it's a terrorist, there could be reasons not to publicise his identity as yet. But then, if it were, flying the mental illness flag (which can't be especially pleasant for those who are mentally ill) is misleading at best.
Exactly, I don't mind the coppers not saying anything as 'lines of enquiry are followed' - but jumping to say it's mental illness is just wrong. We do get occasional terrible incidents where someone goes bananas without any political or religious agenda - thankfully not very many.
Most people with mental illness are more likely to harm themselves or their immediate family than random strangers. It is not unknown of course. But without knowing what is behind this latest sad incident there does seem to be a meme developing which seems to suggest that terrorists are not motivated by some ideology but are only acting as they do because of mental illness. This seems to me to be a mischaracterization: a person with mental issues may be easier to radicalize and persuade to doing such acts but the motivation behind it is not the illness but the ideology. By focusing on the former, we risk ignoring the latter.
People with mental illness should not become the latest scapegoats because we do not want to put the blame on the terrorist ideology and those who propagate it.
At any event, let us hope that this incident is not a terrorist one. It is quite sad enough as it is.
I know a couple of guys with schizophrenia - they get enough stigma without adding more. They experienced significant hostility when the media went through a psycho-killer phase a few years ago.
I'm of the view that terrorist organisations seek out the easily led/mentally ill as useful cannon-fodder. After all, why lose your generals when you can groom the expendable and gullible? As a percentage of the population - I'd imagine they're more prevalent than the master manipulators/sociopaths.
An interesting research finding is that 419 scams are incredibly poorly written on purpose. It's a really cheap way of screening out all but the most gullible. A more plausible and literate style gets poorer results.
The smart cookies will always see through a scam, no matter how well written. But the scammer may waste their time in the meantime pursuing it. So what you really have to do is identify the people who will follow through with the scam at the outset.
No wonder Republicans are publicly endorsing Hillary
Either there's more to the story of the soldier's parents, or Trump's fallen into the trap and made a complete arse of himself.
Still don't like the use of civvies at conferences though, they're not media trained and don't expect to end up in this sort of storm.
If they speak at one they have to know it is a possibility a storm may occur, I don't think lack of media training excuses not being aware of that possibility. Politics is ugly, civilians getting involved in such a big event will not be immune to that. I imagine in this case it is uglier than predicted, but it's always a possibility, regrettably.
I don't think they realise how big the storm can be, and the effect it can have on their lives often for weeks and months afterwards. The parties (on both sides of the Atlantic) are also very poor at handling their civvies in the aftermath - when the attention goes bonkers they should be flown to a villa in Barbados for a couple of weeks, rather than left on their own to defend literally hundreds of press outside their homes.
Especially so in this case, where the subject attached the political opponent, and there would have been a reasonable expectation of a response from Trump keeping the story going.
Deleting his whole website didn't help him either. It just set off the Wayback Machine warriors.
Didn't see that. What was the website, was it a tribute to his son or something more party political?
"This development is significant, as his website proved—as Breitbart News and others have reported—that he financially benefits from unfettered pay-to-play Muslim migration into America.
A snapshot of his now deleted website, as captured by the Wayback Machine which takes snapshots archiving various websites on the Internet, shows that as a lawyer he engages in procurement of EB5 immigration visas and other “Related Immigration Services.”
The website is completely removed from the Internet, and instead directs visitors to the URL at which it once was to a page parking the URL run by GoDaddy..."
Back to twitter, Tim Marshall's just posted that the new Japanese Defence Minister is a 'full on hardliner'.
That could have implications for both attitudes and behaviours towards North Korea and China, regarding the disputed islands that both Japan and China claim.
Thanks for reminding me Mr Dancer. Given the forthcoming changes to the Japanese constitution, we have a modest chance of a real shooting war in the Pacific within the next few years. That would make Brexit a picnic in comparison.
Mr. M, I was wondering whether the Japanese wanted to move from a defence force (or whatever they call it) back to a more usual set-up.
With China claiming what is currently Japanese territory [as well as the South China Sea land grab] and North Korea waving its missiles around, it's not hard to see why the Japanese might decide a stronger military would be a good thing.
'Fly the flag for Team GB. It may well be the last hurrah for ‘Britain’
..Now, I try to explain some idea of Britain to my seven year-old daughter, and can’t quite manage. Scotland, she knows: it’s the place that had to choose between yes and no, where her tartan T-shirt came from. Wales is a cinch: she was born there, she supported its football team through the chain of wonders at Euro 2016, and it’s where her extended family are from. England is where she lives: the country that defines not just our small patch of the West Country, but the thriving, cosmopolitan place down the road in Bristol. But Britain? Sooner or later, I may have to bow to the inevitable and play her Billy Bragg’s prophetic Take Down the Union Jack, which bluntly cuts to the quick: “Britain isn’t cool you know, its really not that great / It’s not a proper country, it doesn’t even have a patron saint / It’s just an economic union that’s passed its sell-by date.”
It really has. It’s also a fading signifier for pretensions to global importance that Brexit has decisively done for. It’s the name of the nonexistent empire referred to in the titles of all those dodgy honours. It’s somewhere cited by politicians – witness Michael Howard’s “British dream”, Ed Miliband’s “British promise”, and David Cameron’s tributes to something he called “the British spirit” – whose words fail to ring true, not just because patriotism of the Westminster variety is usually a put-on, but because the imagined country to which they refer barely exists anymore.'
'Terrorism' is more difficult to define, but in the Western world it's not several hundred per year, so probably more chance of dying in a plane crash. Sometimes of course, the two overlap (MH17, Lockerbie etc).
Should have probably clarified - as an American/Westerner. I realise things are rougher in the Mid East, for example.
If you're British, have a normal job with no dangerous travel and go on holiday with a British or major international airline, your chances of dying in either a commercial plane crash or a terrorist attack are statistically zero. Both are in the single figures per year over the last decade - yet we worry endlessly about both.
Irrational though it is, I crap myself on flights at the slightest whiff of turbulence. The 'BING' of the pilot putting on the 'fasten your seatbelt' sign, accompanied by the cabin illuminated light, doesn't help my nerves or the drama either. A lot of people tense up.
It just feels like the plane is about to go down.
Planes don't drop out of the sky for no reason. A good friend of mine is a pilot, ex RAF now BA, he said that he had never experienced "severe" turbulence. I fly a lot, other than SeanT and Robert I probably fly the most on here and I have never experienced severe turbulence. I'm sure the other two will tell you the same. Flying is extremely safe, and if you stick to and airline with a solid safety and maintenance records then the chances of an engine or fuselage failure is close to nil.
I think you'll find Charles is number one flyer on the site!
Our resident travelling salesman! Forgot about him, he's GGL as well isn't he.
I run up about 3,500 tier points a year, which is a lot, but is a long way from Charles's GGL. To get GGL you need 5,000 which means you need to fly Club Class London to LA roughly every 10 days. That's a serious amount of flying.
Mr. M, I was wondering whether the Japanese wanted to move from a defence force (or whatever they call it) back to a more usual set-up.
With China claiming what is currently Japanese territory [as well as the South China Sea land grab] and North Korea waving its missiles around, it's not hard to see why the Japanese might decide a stronger military would be a good thing.
Abe has committed (post election) to amending article 9 of the Japanese constitution, which limits Japanese forces to self-defence. It makes sense, but it's adding fuel to an already smouldering fire. Time to dig out the old Tom Clancy thrillers.
'Fly the flag for Team GB. It may well be the last hurrah for ‘Britain’
..Now, I try to explain some idea of Britain to my seven year-old daughter, and can’t quite manage. Scotland, she knows: it’s the place that had to choose between yes and no, where her tartan T-shirt came from. Wales is a cinch: she was born there, she supported its football team through the chain of wonders at Euro 2016, and it’s where her extended family are from. England is where she lives: the country that defines not just our small patch of the West Country, but the thriving, cosmopolitan place down the road in Bristol. But Britain? Sooner or later, I may have to bow to the inevitable and play her Billy Bragg’s prophetic Take Down the Union Jack, which bluntly cuts to the quick: “Britain isn’t cool you know, its really not that great / It’s not a proper country, it doesn’t even have a patron saint / It’s just an economic union that’s passed its sell-by date.”
It really has. It’s also a fading signifier for pretensions to global importance that Brexit has decisively done for. It’s the name of the nonexistent empire referred to in the titles of all those dodgy honours. It’s somewhere cited by politicians – witness Michael Howard’s “British dream”, Ed Miliband’s “British promise”, and David Cameron’s tributes to something he called “the British spirit” – whose words fail to ring true, not just because patriotism of the Westminster variety is usually a put-on, but because the imagined country to which they refer barely exists anymore.'
Do you have a source for those figures? That's quite a dramatic continuation of the fall in recent years.
Though I think 4 years are too long. Realistically if there is no early election then come 2020 we need to be out or else there'll be problems with the election. You wouldn't want the exit to occur in the weeks before just in case there's a problem.
So realistically again the deadline for exiting is in 2019, to have the job completed smoothly in time for seeking a 2020 re-election.
A 2019 exit works with a 2017 A50 invocation and no extension necessary.
------------------------ ------------------------
The 2015 Pink Book figures are out now and show the share of UK exports of goods and services to the EU28 at 43.6% for 2015. If we correct for a couple of other things like Rotterdam trade and looking at value-added trade rather than gross value, that can come down a few percentage points more to maybe under 40%.
The share has dropped around 10 percentage points since 2006, which is a big shift. Certainly if that trend continued, Max's numbers would be right. That may be pushing things.
If we make some reasonable assumptions about EU/ROW growth over the next 20 years, though, we can get the EU share of UK exports down another 10 percentage points or so.
That's just based on the recent relationships of exports with relative growth rates in the different areas.
The thornier question is how much reorientation of trade happens as a result of unwinding the current system of trade preferences (tariffs and even more important non-tariff barriers) which favours EU trade over trade with the ROW.
That's a lot harder to work out especially as the non-tariff effects are tricky to pin down. It also depends crucially on what new trading arrangements are put in place both for EU and non-EU trade.
There are some estimates out there, but not as many as you might think. Some have suggested that there could be quite large effects, especially if UK trade with the US is liberalised significantly.
Personally I would think that EU trade is unlikely to drop to 25% in the next 20 years. But even a share around 30-35% would be a massive shift from the peak shares seen in the early 1990s and would render EU membership redundant from a strictly economic point of view.
A fair proportion of the drop will be caused by Corib coming on steam, which stops the export of natural gas to Ireland (as they now export to us, very temporarily).
As Corib will only be at peak production for 18 to 24 months, you'd expect that to reverse.
Essentially, you'd want to eliminate all natural resources from the figures as they distort so, and are tariff free anyway.
Mr. M, I was wondering whether the Japanese wanted to move from a defence force (or whatever they call it) back to a more usual set-up.
Yes, this has been the LDP's goal since forever.
The basic strategy is the same one the UK uses for mass surveillance: 1) We're not doing that. 2) We're doing that but it's legal. 3) We've been doing that for ages and it's illegal, we need to change the law to make it legal. 4) that++, go back to (1).
Mr. M, was Rising Sun the one that got made into a film with Sean Connery and Wesley Snipes?
Mr. Divvie, an issue with Britain, in a sentimental sense, is that Wales and Scotland got devolved power, institutionalising dividing lines, and England didn't [which also led to more English nationalism as a reaction to everywhere else getting devolution].
Said it before, but short-sighted and narrow-minded politicians (Blair) have tinkered with the constitutional set-up for party political advantage and only created more long term problems.
It would be good to get more regular Scottish polls for Westminster and for the Scottish Parliament. This is particularly the case since the Scottish polls have been marginally more accurate than the UK ones.
However all the indications we have is that the SNP maintains its extraordinary dominance at around the 50 per cent mark while there is some debate around whether the Tories have pulled clear of Labour in second. All of this would matter little come an election. As the Scottish results showed there are only a handful of seats where the Tories could seriously threaten an SNP incumbent. Parties running at 50 per cent of the vote tend not to lose seats.
Just as likely, assuming some movement back from the present honeymoon high, would be to put at risk the only seat that the Tories hold. This would be even more the case if May was seen to try a quick trick to take advantage of Labour and UKIP convulsions. "We are the only serious opposition" would be a strong platform on which the SNP could fight to gain even more votes from non Tories. Indeed under current circumstances all remaining pro-Scottish Labour votes might go SNP.
Even more of a risk to the cautious union supporting May would be that the election could be turned by Sturgeon into a de facto independence vote for Scotland. There is no ultimate reason why these matters are only decided by referendum as the "velvet divorce" between Czechs and the Slovaks reminds us which took place after an election showed incompatible results in the two countries.
To be fair, an erratic nuclear-armed dictatorship and an increasingly militant superpower as near neighbours are bloody good pretexts for beefing up your armed forces.
'Fly the flag for Team GB. It may well be the last hurrah for ‘Britain’
..Now, I try to explain some idea of Britain to my seven year-old daughter, and can’t quite manage. Scotland, she knows: it’s the place that had to choose between yes and no, where her tartan T-shirt came from. Wales is a cinch: she was born there, she supported its football team through the chain of wonders at Euro 2016, and it’s where her extended family are from. England is where she lives: the country that defines not just our small patch of the West Country, but the thriving, cosmopolitan place down the road in Bristol. But Britain? Sooner or later, I may have to bow to the inevitable and play her Billy Bragg’s prophetic Take Down the Union Jack, which bluntly cuts to the quick: “Britain isn’t cool you know, its really not that great / It’s not a proper country, it doesn’t even have a patron saint / It’s just an economic union that’s passed its sell-by date.”
It really has. It’s also a fading signifier for pretensions to global importance that Brexit has decisively done for. It’s the name of the nonexistent empire referred to in the titles of all those dodgy honours. It’s somewhere cited by politicians – witness Michael Howard’s “British dream”, Ed Miliband’s “British promise”, and David Cameron’s tributes to something he called “the British spirit” – whose words fail to ring true, not just because patriotism of the Westminster variety is usually a put-on, but because the imagined country to which they refer barely exists anymore.'
Mr. M, was Rising Sun the one that got made into a film with Sean Connery and Wesley Snipes?
Mr. Divvie, an issue with Britain, in a sentimental sense, is that Wales and Scotland got devolved power, institutionalising dividing lines, and England didn't [which also led to more English nationalism as a reaction to everywhere else getting devolution].
Said it before, but short-sighted and narrow-minded politicians (Blair) have tinkered with the constitutional set-up for party political advantage and only created more long term problems.
Rising Sun was by Crichton and not one of his best. Debt of Honor is Clancy's look at a US-Japan war. It includes a cyber attack on US financial systems and culminates in a Japanese pilot flying a 747 into the Capitol. Prophetic in a way.
Mr. Divvie, an issue with Britain, in a sentimental sense, is that Wales and Scotland got devolved power, institutionalising dividing lines, and England didn't [which also led to more English nationalism as a reaction to everywhere else getting devolution].
I think you mean Wales and Scotland argued and fought for devolved power, England didn't.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Divvie, nope. I mean that traditionally Labour parts of the UK got devolved governments because the reds foolishly thought they'd have perpetual fiefdoms.
Now, the media and political class sometimes discuss English devolution, but they hardly ever include the most obvious and only fair solution, which is an English Parliament that has powers directly corresponding to Holyrood's.
I run up about 3,500 tier points a year, which is a lot, but is a long way from Charles's GGL. To get GGL you need 5,000 which means you need to fly Club Class London to LA roughly every 10 days. That's a serious amount of flying.
Have they taken away the 3000 points two years running way of getting in? I used to have it when I was at Sony and doing return trips to Tokyo a couple of times a month. I'm trying to work my way up to lifetime gold status, but that's a lot of points away.
If they speak at one they have to know it is a possibility a storm may occur, I don't think lack of media training excuses not being aware of that possibility. Politics is ugly, civilians getting involved in such a big event will not be immune to that. I imagine in this case it is uglier than predicted, but it's always a possibility, regrettably.
I don't think they realise how big the storm can be, and the effect it can have on their lives often for weeks and months afterwards. The parties (on both sides of the Atlantic) are also very poor at handling their civvies in the aftermath - when the attention goes bonkers they should be flown to a villa in Barbados for a couple of weeks, rather than left on their own to defend literally hundreds of press outside their homes.
Especially so in this case, where the subject attached the political opponent, and there would have been a reasonable expectation of a response from Trump keeping the story going.
Deleting his whole website didn't help him either. It just set off the Wayback Machine warriors.
Didn't see that. What was the website, was it a tribute to his son or something more party political?
"This development is significant, as his website proved—as Breitbart News and others have reported—that he financially benefits from unfettered pay-to-play Muslim migration into America.
A snapshot of his now deleted website, as captured by the Wayback Machine which takes snapshots archiving various websites on the Internet, shows that as a lawyer he engages in procurement of EB5 immigration visas and other “Related Immigration Services.”
The website is completely removed from the Internet, and instead directs visitors to the URL at which it once was to a page parking the URL run by GoDaddy..."
That's a weird one. Why would a lawyer delete his website, it only draws attention to it, and lets the other side go for him - not as the parent of a sadly deceased soldier, but as an immigration lawyer who stands to lose out from Trump winning?
Given his profession he seems incredibly naïve as to the impact his speech might have.
I thought we agreed during the referendum that the express was a load of old bollocks?
It's not even that good. They were claiming the Q2 GDP figures as evidence of a post-Brexit economic boom. Mendacious as opposed to simply biased like (say) the FT.
This Russel Square attack seems very strange, at least the coverage of it. Seems that information which could be released isn't being.
I have to say I'm against this 'don't name/mention the terrorist as it gives them publicity etc' though. The only way to operate a open democracy is if the public has the facts if they are available.
I have to admit that fashion passes me by and always did, but £170 for a shirt? Now come on.
OK, I was the known as the 'style assassin' when I was younger, but I believe a good-looking woman still looks good in a black bin bag. Not sure about men, but even I suspect the Italians go way too far. As long as your shirt doesn't have too many holes in it, you're fine.
Mr Dancer, congrats on your success.
I have occasionally paid close to a grand on a shirt (for an Italian shirt)
I hope you have had plenty of use out of it.
I am prepared to pay a lot for clothes (nothing like in your league), but only if I expect to wear them pretty much every other day. I reckon I'm doing badly if an item of clothing ends up costing more than about 25p per day of use. I once spent £400 on a suit, but I've worn the jacket it pretty much every work day (except Fridays) for the last nine years. (Obviously the trousers need replacing far more often).
Always buy suits with two pairs of trousers, saves so many jackets from a premature trip to the charity shop!
Edit: @TSE beat me to the point, even if he does spend silly money on lairy shirts!
Suits?
I last bought one in the mid 1980s, it still fits and looks remarkably good. It was expensive at the time but worth it for an occasional suit user. Only one pair of trousers required!
I thought we agreed during the referendum that the express was a load of old bollocks?
Generally it is. But one of the sad aspects of the this whole Islamic-terror-in-the-West-thing is that you have to go to the most obscure, silly or extreme of sources to get the truth, as the authorities are often quite keen to conceal the facts, as we know from Cologne etc
What makes this resonate with me is the mention of motorbikes. We know the attacker was wearing motorbike leathers, and a helmet.
Was this a team of motorbike-riding jihadists, did the culprit have accomplices, or colleagues who chickened out?
Of course it could just have been tourists who got scared and ran away, and fair enough.
It doesn't help that the police are being so bashful with the basic facts.
Why would a lawyer delete his website, it only draws attention to it, and lets the other side go for him - not as the parent of a sadly deceased soldier, but as an immigration lawyer who stands to lose out from Trump winning?
People calling up causing a nuisance at his office, I'd imagine. (Too late, Breitbart's got it.)
A fair proportion of the drop will be caused by Corib coming on steam, which stops the export of natural gas to Ireland (as they now export to us, very temporarily).
As Corib will only be at peak production for 18 to 24 months, you'd expect that to reverse.
Essentially, you'd want to eliminate all natural resources from the figures as they distort so, and are tariff free anyway
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I'm not sure what period you are talking about Robert but the UK's G&S export share with Ireland has only dropped by 1% point since 2006.
So even if all of that reflects the effect you are referring to - questionable to say the least - then that effect would only account for around a tenth of the change in the export share to the EU.
The biggest contributions to the 10% point drop from 2006-15 are France (-3.2) Spain (-1.6) Ireland (-1.2) Belgium (-1.1) Germany (-0.9) and Netherlands (-0.6). With Bel & Neth being places from which much is shipped on, their drops may well reflect in part weaker final demand elsewhere inc. Germany.
Comments
Won't stop the usual suspects playing it up for political purposes though. Some must have been so gutted when Jo Cox's murderer turned out to be a white far-right terrorist rather than a brown islamic one.
Caveat sample size 161
SNP 50, Con 25, Lab 13, LD 5, UKIP 3
Mr. Eagles, you're mad as a mongoose.
Miss Plato, I remember reading it's cheaper to fly to India and buy some sort of garment (saris?) and fly back than it is to buy them in the UK. On the Vietnam special, Top Gear's chaps got very good suits overnight for cheap prices.
Still don't like the use of civvies at conferences though, they're not media trained and don't expect to end up in this sort of storm.
My impression of the formation of the new Conservative Government was that it was predicated on three things:
1) The purging of Cameron/Osborne
2) The desire to return to solid Conservative governance albeit, it seems to me, from a strongly interventionist activist Heseltine-type stance.
3) The process of exiting the EU - May has put the likes of Davis, Fox and Johnson where they are for a reason - one part of it is for them to be human shields for her if it all goes wrong and second, to take the process forward.
I can quite understand given the disparate aims of LEAVE, nobody was going to trigger Article 50 on the day after the referendum (I thought Cameron might as a final act of spite) but say six months to set up the organisation, do some more thinking and reach a collective position doesn't seem unreasonable so I'd be looking at fairly early next year with a view to complete exit by early 2019 and an election to follow.
Conflict News
BREAKING: Briton arrested over deadly Bangladesh cafe siege: police - AFP
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/labour-lib-dems-and-greens-call-snap-election-could-it-happen
It is up to Theresa May whether one happens or not.
The poor lady's body lay where she fell until 0530 according to the media. That's 7hrs. Apparently her friend hugged her as she died. Just awful.
It's only if Parliament starts playing silly over Article 50 or other associated legislation that there becomes a case for an early dissolution (and, for that matter, the likely means for it).
We are about to make the PLPs position untenable.
The green light for reselections has been given.
The Gravy Train full of entitled Lab MPs is about to hit the buffers
After a comfortable flight in Business, even LAX doesn't bother me.
I aspire to Charles's regular sojourns in First but, as someone once said, I know my place.
It could actually just be a lunatic. But if it were, then one would've expected a name/description to have emerged by now. If it's a terrorist, there could be reasons not to publicise his identity as yet. But then, if it were, flying the mental illness flag (which can't be especially pleasant for those who are mentally ill) is misleading at best.
Clinton 73.2 .. Trump 26.7 - Polls Only
Clinton 69.4 .. Trump 30.6 - Polls Plus
Clinton 88.6 .. Trump 11.3 - Nowcast
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus
All those likely to de-selected will jump, so some havoc there as well...
I have to admit that fashion passes me by and always did, but £170 for a shirt? Now come on.
OK, I was the known as the 'style assassin' when I was younger, but I believe a good-looking woman still looks good in a black bin bag. Not sure about men, but even I suspect the Italians go way too far. As long as your shirt doesn't have too many holes in it, you're fine.
Mr Dancer, congrats on your success.
I won't pay thousands for the same on any shorter flight. Think what more you could do with the same money when you land..
Mr. Smith, that's true. Believing a sky fairy wants you to kill innocent people isn't a sign of being a balanced fellow. However, by putting mental illness front and centre it's a clear tactic to try and draw people away from the terrorism angle (which may be legitimate, if the guy's 'just' a nutcase).
Mr. Owls, are you not concerned the 50,000 or so £25 people being disqualified from voting will harm Corbyn's prospects of retaining the leadership?
A 2025 united Socialist Labour with Socialist candidates is the aim.
Especially so in this case, where the subject attached the political opponent, and there would have been a reasonable expectation of a response from Trump keeping the story going.
Leaving the EU along with setting up new trade deals will be a huge task but it's achievable and, as we've seen, plenty of non-EU countries want it to happen.
Finishing that by 2019 and going to the country in 2020 seems eminently reasonable. The re-alignment of political parties during this process will be interesting.
If all the LDs are going to be is a reverse UKIP, then I'm gone from the Party. Tim can argue for electoral reform because it was AV (which has never been LD policy) rather than STV which was rejected in 2011 and I would support that.
However, the country has narrowly but decisively rejected the EU in its current form. We cannot argue to return to the EU on the terms on which we left (which wouldn't be available anyway). The Party has to make the liberal case in a post-EU world as against those who would turn inward completely and there are arguments on immigration, international collaboration and co-operation and global issues which liberals can and should be making.
You're off your rocker. On the plus side, now we know you can personally afford to buy 300 copies of my next fantasy novel
You sound just like the BBC News, Mike ......... oh wait .....!
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/business/business-news/theresa-ask-small-businesses-what-11701804#ICID=sharebar_twitter
When questioned, Mr. Eagles replied, "Why is it that no matter how many ludicrously expensive shirts a man buys he never seems to have enough?"
It's easy to be fired up by sexy independence but will they foot slog for pot holes and libraries.
If they will then it is all change.
Something similar to this shirt, though this pattern is a bit plain in comparison.
http://www.selfridges.com/GB/en/cat/versace-tiled-baroque-silk-shirt_424-3004038-A68968A219540/?previewAttribute=Black+/+gold
People with mental illness should not become the latest scapegoats because we do not want to put the blame on the terrorist ideology and those who propagate it.
At any event, let us hope that this incident is not a terrorist one. It is quite sad enough as it is.
I am prepared to pay a lot for clothes (nothing like in your league), but only if I expect to wear them pretty much every other day. I reckon I'm doing badly if an item of clothing ends up costing more than about 25p per day of use. I once spent £400 on a suit, but I've worn the jacket it pretty much every work day (except Fridays) for the last nine years. (Obviously the trousers need replacing far more often).
As a rule of thumb, the trousers last half as long as the jacket.
That might complicate things/limit the SNP?
Edit: @TSE beat me to the point, even if he does spend silly money on lairy shirts!
I'm of the view that terrorist organisations seek out the easily led/mentally ill as useful cannon-fodder. After all, why lose your generals when you can groom the expendable and gullible? As a percentage of the population - I'd imagine they're more prevalent than the master manipulators/sociopaths.
Do you have a source for those figures? That's quite a dramatic continuation of the fall in recent years.
Though I think 4 years are too long. Realistically if there is no early election then come 2020 we need to be out or else there'll be problems with the election. You wouldn't want the exit to occur in the weeks before just in case there's a problem.
So realistically again the deadline for exiting is in 2019, to have the job completed smoothly in time for seeking a 2020 re-election.
A 2019 exit works with a 2017 A50 invocation and no extension necessary.
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The 2015 Pink Book figures are out now and show the share of UK exports of goods and services to the EU28 at 43.6% for 2015. If we correct for a couple of other things like Rotterdam trade and looking at value-added trade rather than gross value, that can come down a few percentage points more to maybe under 40%.
The share has dropped around 10 percentage points since 2006, which is a big shift. Certainly if that trend continued, Max's numbers would be right. That may be pushing things.
If we make some reasonable assumptions about EU/ROW growth over the next 20 years, though, we can get the EU share of UK exports down another 10 percentage points or so.
That's just based on the recent relationships of exports with relative growth rates in the different areas.
The thornier question is how much reorientation of trade happens as a result of unwinding the current system of trade preferences (tariffs and even more important non-tariff barriers) which favours EU trade over trade with the ROW.
That's a lot harder to work out especially as the non-tariff effects are tricky to pin down. It also depends crucially on what new trading arrangements are put in place both for EU and non-EU trade.
There are some estimates out there, but not as many as you might think. Some have suggested that there could be quite large effects, especially if UK trade with the US is liberalised significantly.
Personally I would think that EU trade is unlikely to drop to 25% in the next 20 years. But even a share around 30-35% would be a massive shift from the peak shares seen in the early 1990s and would render EU membership redundant from a strictly economic point of view.
That could have implications for both attitudes and behaviours towards North Korea and China, regarding the disputed islands that both Japan and China claim.
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/02/khizr-khan-deletes-law-firm-website-proving-financially-benefits-pay-play-muslim-migration/
"This development is significant, as his website proved—as Breitbart News and others have reported—that he financially benefits from unfettered pay-to-play Muslim migration into America.
A snapshot of his now deleted website, as captured by the Wayback Machine which takes snapshots archiving various websites on the Internet, shows that as a lawyer he engages in procurement of EB5 immigration visas and other “Related Immigration Services.”
The website is completely removed from the Internet, and instead directs visitors to the URL at which it once was to a page parking the URL run by GoDaddy..."
With China claiming what is currently Japanese territory [as well as the South China Sea land grab] and North Korea waving its missiles around, it's not hard to see why the Japanese might decide a stronger military would be a good thing.
'Fly the flag for Team GB. It may well be the last hurrah for ‘Britain’
..Now, I try to explain some idea of Britain to my seven year-old daughter, and can’t quite manage. Scotland, she knows: it’s the place that had to choose between yes and no, where her tartan T-shirt came from. Wales is a cinch: she was born there, she supported its football team through the chain of wonders at Euro 2016, and it’s where her extended family are from. England is where she lives: the country that defines not just our small patch of the West Country, but the thriving, cosmopolitan place down the road in Bristol. But Britain? Sooner or later, I may have to bow to the inevitable and play her Billy Bragg’s prophetic Take Down the Union Jack, which bluntly cuts to the quick: “Britain isn’t cool you know, its really not that great / It’s not a proper country, it doesn’t even have a patron saint / It’s just an economic union that’s passed its sell-by date.”
It really has. It’s also a fading signifier for pretensions to global importance that Brexit has decisively done for. It’s the name of the nonexistent empire referred to in the titles of all those dodgy honours. It’s somewhere cited by politicians – witness Michael Howard’s “British dream”, Ed Miliband’s “British promise”, and David Cameron’s tributes to something he called “the British spirit” – whose words fail to ring true, not just because patriotism of the Westminster variety is usually a put-on, but because the imagined country to which they refer barely exists anymore.'
http://tinyurl.com/ztwx2nb
As Corib will only be at peak production for 18 to 24 months, you'd expect that to reverse.
Essentially, you'd want to eliminate all natural resources from the figures as they distort so, and are tariff free anyway.
Deselected MPs standing against the official candidate could lose Labour a lot of seats.
The only solution is for the party to come together.
The basic strategy is the same one the UK uses for mass surveillance:
1) We're not doing that.
2) We're doing that but it's legal.
3) We've been doing that for ages and it's illegal, we need to change the law to make it legal.
4) that++, go back to (1).
Mr. Divvie, an issue with Britain, in a sentimental sense, is that Wales and Scotland got devolved power, institutionalising dividing lines, and England didn't [which also led to more English nationalism as a reaction to everywhere else getting devolution].
Said it before, but short-sighted and narrow-minded politicians (Blair) have tinkered with the constitutional set-up for party political advantage and only created more long term problems.
It would be good to get more regular Scottish polls for Westminster and for the Scottish Parliament. This is particularly the case since the Scottish polls have been marginally more accurate than the UK ones.
However all the indications we have is that the SNP maintains its extraordinary dominance at around the 50 per cent mark while there is some debate around whether the Tories have pulled clear of Labour in second. All of this would matter little come an election. As the Scottish results showed there are only a handful of seats where the Tories could seriously threaten an SNP incumbent. Parties running at 50 per cent of the vote tend not to lose seats.
Just as likely, assuming some movement back from the present honeymoon high, would be to put at risk the only seat that the Tories hold. This would be even more the case if May was seen to try a quick trick to take advantage of Labour and UKIP convulsions. "We are the only serious opposition" would be a strong platform on which the SNP could fight to gain even more votes from non Tories. Indeed under current circumstances all remaining pro-Scottish Labour votes might go SNP.
Even more of a risk to the cautious union supporting May would be that the election could be turned by Sturgeon into a de facto independence vote for Scotland. There is no ultimate reason why these matters are only decided by referendum as the "velvet divorce" between Czechs and the Slovaks reminds us which took place after an election showed incompatible results in the two countries.
To be fair, an erratic nuclear-armed dictatorship and an increasingly militant superpower as near neighbours are bloody good pretexts for beefing up your armed forces.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Divvie, nope. I mean that traditionally Labour parts of the UK got devolved governments because the reds foolishly thought they'd have perpetual fiefdoms.
Now, the media and political class sometimes discuss English devolution, but they hardly ever include the most obvious and only fair solution, which is an English Parliament that has powers directly corresponding to Holyrood's.
Given his profession he seems incredibly naïve as to the impact his speech might have.
I have to say I'm against this 'don't name/mention the terrorist as it gives them publicity etc' though. The only way to operate a open democracy is if the public has the facts if they are available.
I last bought one in the mid 1980s, it still fits and looks remarkably good. It was expensive at the time but worth it for an occasional suit user. Only one pair of trousers required!
Age, gender, psychiatric condition and clothing appear to be known. Race, religion and name do not.
A fair proportion of the drop will be caused by Corib coming on steam, which stops the export of natural gas to Ireland (as they now export to us, very temporarily).
As Corib will only be at peak production for 18 to 24 months, you'd expect that to reverse.
Essentially, you'd want to eliminate all natural resources from the figures as they distort so, and are tariff free anyway
---------------------------
---------------------------
I'm not sure what period you are talking about Robert but the UK's G&S export share with Ireland has only dropped by 1% point since 2006.
So even if all of that reflects the effect you are referring to - questionable to say the least - then that effect would only account for around a tenth of the change in the export share to the EU.
The biggest contributions to the 10% point drop from 2006-15 are France (-3.2) Spain (-1.6) Ireland (-1.2) Belgium (-1.1) Germany (-0.9) and Netherlands (-0.6). With Bel & Neth being places from which much is shipped on, their drops may well reflect in part weaker final demand elsewhere inc. Germany.