They should have been taking the froth off the top of the asset bubble quite some time ago with some small interest rate rises and then they would have had more room to move now.
He was appointed as Osborne's lackey and has acted as Osborne's lackey.
The former suffered from Greenspanitis in his obsession with securing mystic Carney, IMHO.
The bank rate is set by the members of the Monetary Policy Committee on which Carney only has one vote and may even have voted against a change.
From the Guardian:
Bank policymakers split over stimulus programme.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 9-0 to cut interest rates today.
However, Kristin Forbes opposed the plan to buy £10bn of corporate debt each month, meaning that vote was 8-1.
And the decision to boost quantitative easing was only carried by 6 votes to 3, with Forbes, Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale all voted against it.
'I didn't say that. EEA + FoM will command 60% support in the country. That still respects "Brexit" as was written on the ballot paper. It won't make people like you happy. But then who cares ?
60% would not support the party which calls for it. But enough Tories would move away from them to the Liberals or any other party which calls for such an arrangement.'
Dream on, we didn't vote to leave the EU to have the same crap rehashed through the back door.
You didn't. Many other didn't. But there was no democratic vote on the type of Brexit we get, only that we get Brexit. That is why UKIP and even disaffected Remainers are still so important - the fight for the type of Brexit is not only still on, it is perfectly legitimate and indeed essential to have that fight, since despite the tenor of the campaigns, without a list of options on the ballot we cannot know what people wanted other than some form of Brexit. I voted Leave, many would call be an immigrant hating racist for doing so, but I don't care about immigration at all. A minority, to be sure, but it demonstrates anyone saying the vote to Leave meant we have to have certain policies for a type of Leave, is just plain wrong. We might end up that way, with a hard Brexit (for one, I don't think May will want to take on the hard brexiteers), but that was not what was voted for. We didn't vote for BrexitLite either.
Let the fight commence, the peace is not won even though the war is.
Britain stopped for 2 weeks after the referendum result so I'm not surprised confidence and results over that period have taken a knock. But the fundamentals of the economy haven't changed and things will bounce back.
I wouldn't be surprised if this is unwound in a few months. Right now it feels like an over reaction. The £60bn of QE also feels like it will achieve nothing other than making pension deficits worse, we don't currently have any issue with selling government paper.
@ThreeQuidder It's hard to have confidence in a country that has allowed itself to be persuaded into a course of action by demagogues and nutjobs. The reaction is natural.
The road back is going to be hard and expensive. Meanwhile, the Leavers will never accept their responsibility for the damage that they have done.
@Casino_Royale Yes, it's everyone's fault except Leavers. It's pure coincidence that confidence has gone through the floor since the Brexit vote, all down to those wicked Remainers not accepting the result.
Or in the real world, cop onto yourself.
Confidence has gone through the floor because of endless apocalyptic headlines about how awful it's going to be. From Remoaners.
On the new growth figures the money we might get back from no longer paying into the EU will be needed to support current spending plans and not for anything additional.
And the rest.
On the plus side I'm now £5 ~ £10 a month better off.
First good outcome of the referendum today as my lifetime tracker mortgage costs ticked down again :-)
@Casino_Royale Yes, it's everyone's fault except Leavers. It's pure coincidence that confidence has gone through the floor since the Brexit vote, all down to those wicked Remainers not accepting the result.
Or in the real world, cop onto yourself.
Or perhaps you should try and keep your emotions in check and focus on how you say it, not what you say.
I used to respect you above almost all others on this board.
@ThreeQuidder It's hard to have confidence in a country that has allowed itself to be persuaded into a course of action by demagogues and nutjobs. The reaction is natural.
The road back is going to be hard and expensive. Meanwhile, the Leavers will never accept their responsibility for the damage that they have done.
Oh dear. Get over yourself. You lost.
Now you have two courses of action open to you:
(1) Work for and argue for the best possible Leave (2) Sit on the sidelines, carping and moaning, hoping against hope that it will be a disaster just so that you can be proved right.
@GIN1138 Thanks for asking. He's had a worse week this week, having picked up an infection that required an emergency operation. He seems to be recovering from this, but I will find out more in a couple of hours.
@Casino_Royale Yes, it's everyone's fault except Leavers. It's pure coincidence that confidence has gone through the floor since the Brexit vote, all down to those wicked Remainers not accepting the result.
Or in the real world, cop onto yourself.
Confidence has gone through the floor because of endless apocalyptic headlines about how awful it's going to be. From Remoaners.
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
Britain stopped for 2 weeks after the referendum result so I'm not surprised confidence and results over that period have taken a knock. But the fundamentals of the economy haven't changed and things will bounce back.
It's certainly too soon to declare things irrevocably broken. All but the most fanatical accepted there would be disruption and an economic hit in the short term. If in a year it is clear things are not going to be on a path to improvement, I for one will will have to embarrasingly apologise, but it's still early days.
That said, while there may be people who are in a way hoping things remain bad as a vindication of their position, if numbers are bad, pointing that out is not talking things down.
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
Is the prospect of life outside the EU really so terrible? I don't think your fears will materialise.
What a shame your childish and petulant behaviour is still unchanged 6 weeks later.
I had hoped your time off (albeit for deeply unpleasant reasons) would have provided you with some needed perspective.
We had about a fortnight of financial turbulence, following the vote on 23rd June, which has now subsided.
Yeah, I just thought we'd all moved on from the point scoring, finger pointing and early stages of grief, now, and we're moving into acceptance now with a focus on what happens next/should happen next.
@Casino_Royale Yes, it's everyone's fault except Leavers. It's pure coincidence that confidence has gone through the floor since the Brexit vote, all down to those wicked Remainers not accepting the result.
Or in the real world, cop onto yourself.
Confidence has gone through the floor because of endless apocalyptic headlines about how awful it's going to be. From Remoaners.
@GIN1138 Thanks for asking. He's had a worse week this week, having picked up an infection that required an emergency operation. He seems to be recovering from this, but I will find out more in a couple of hours.
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
Wrong, on both counts.
FWIW these are confidence indicators, not economic reality, and the bank still thinks we can avoid recession.
I think you would rather be proved right than avoid economic turbulence.
@ThreeQuidder It's hard to have confidence in a country that has allowed itself to be persuaded into a course of action by demagogues and nutjobs. The reaction is natural.
The road back is going to be hard and expensive. Meanwhile, the Leavers will never accept their responsibility for the damage that they have done.
Oh dear. Get over yourself. You lost.
Now you have two courses of action open to you:
(1) Work for and argue for the best possible Leave (2) Sit on the sidelines, carping and moaning, hoping against hope that it will be a disaster just so that you can be proved right.
Don't be a (2).
You can believe Leave was a mistake and still try to make the best of it. In fact, we're unlikely to make the best of it if we don't recognise its downsides. See frothing on here about Carney and BoE's decisions today.
Britain stopped for 2 weeks after the referendum result so I'm not surprised confidence and results over that period have taken a knock. But the fundamentals of the economy haven't changed and things will bounce back.
It's certainly too soon to declare things irrevocably broken. All but the most fanatical accepted there would be disruption and an economic hit in the short term. If in a year it is clear things are not going to be on a path to improvement, I for one will will have to embarrasingly apologise, but it's still early days.
I've said repeatedly that we won't know whether it was a good decision in the round for fifteen years.
Guido's currently fisking the Treasury forecast on Brexit, but I really do not want to get into trading numbers. Just based on the BoE economic forecast today, we're going to spend a year as Italy, then a year as France. It's likely that growth will still exceed the EZ.
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
Wrong, on both counts.
FWIW these are confidence indicators, not economic reality, and the bank still thinks we can avoid recession.
I think you would rather be proved right than avoid economic turbulence.
It also assumes that everything would be okay if we'd voted to remain. Our public finances and economy in general is in a complete mess thanks to the idiots running the treasury and the BoE.
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
Wrong, on both counts.
FWIW these are confidence indicators, not economic reality, and the bank still thinks we can avoid recession.
I think you would rather be proved right than avoid economic turbulence.
They should have been taking the froth off the top of the asset bubble quite some time ago with some small interest rate rises and then they would have had more room to move now.
He was appointed as Osborne's lackey and has acted as Osborne's lackey.
The former suffered from Greenspanitis in his obsession with securing mystic Carney, IMHO.
The bank rate is set by the members of the Monetary Policy Committee on which Carney only has one vote and may even have voted against a change.
From the Guardian:
Bank policymakers split over stimulus programme.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 9-0 to cut interest rates today.
However, Kristin Forbes opposed the plan to buy £10bn of corporate debt each month, meaning that vote was 8-1.
And the decision to boost quantitative easing was only carried by 6 votes to 3, with Forbes, Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale all voted against it.
I didn't think those details were shared until next month (?) maybe the rules have changed?
"Today’s Bank of England numbers forecast GDP unchanged at 2% for 2016, dropping to 0.8% in 2017 and rising again to 1.8% in 2018. No recession."
Perfectly possible to have yearly average GDP growth and still have a 2 quarter recession in there.
If you take a best case -0.1% for two quarters then it means the other two quarters will be +0.5% each. That's almost at trend. If that is the case then its mot exactly a big deal. I think the prospect of a year bumping along at 0.2% per quarter is probably worse.
@ThreeQuidder It's hard to have confidence in a country that has allowed itself to be persuaded into a course of action by demagogues and nutjobs. The reaction is natural.
The road back is going to be hard and expensive. Meanwhile, the Leavers will never accept their responsibility for the damage that they have done.
Oh dear. Get over yourself. You lost.
Now you have two courses of action open to you:
(1) Work for and argue for the best possible Leave (2) Sit on the sidelines, carping and moaning, hoping against hope that it will be a disaster just so that you can be proved right.
Don't be a (2).
You can believe Leave was a mistake and still try to make the best of it.
Yes, but Meeks and other (2)s aren't. They're praying for the country to suffer just so they can say "I told you so".
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
Wrong, on both counts.
FWIW these are confidence indicators, not economic reality, and the bank still thinks we can avoid recession.
I think you would rather be proved right than avoid economic turbulence.
It also assumes that everything would be okay if we'd voted to remain. Our public finances and economy in general is in a complete mess thanks to the idiots running the treasury and the BoE.
Prior to brexit unemployment was down to 4.9%, wage growth was 2% above inflation, GDP growth was accelerating and the deficit was coming down.
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
I don't suppose anyone with a tracker mortgage is paying through the nose for anything.
They should have been taking the froth off the top of the asset bubble quite some time ago with some small interest rate rises and then they would have had more room to move now.
He was appointed as Osborne's lackey and has acted as Osborne's lackey.
The former suffered from Greenspanitis in his obsession with securing mystic Carney, IMHO.
The bank rate is set by the members of the Monetary Policy Committee on which Carney only has one vote and may even have voted against a change.
From the Guardian:
Bank policymakers split over stimulus programme.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 9-0 to cut interest rates today.
However, Kristin Forbes opposed the plan to buy £10bn of corporate debt each month, meaning that vote was 8-1.
And the decision to boost quantitative easing was only carried by 6 votes to 3, with Forbes, Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale all voted against it.
I didn't think those details were shared until next month (?) maybe the rules have changed?
Carney does super Thursday now, minutes released with the result.
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
Wrong, on both counts.
FWIW these are confidence indicators, not economic reality, and the bank still thinks we can avoid recession.
I think you would rather be proved right than avoid economic turbulence.
It also assumes that everything would be okay if we'd voted to remain. Our public finances and economy in general is in a complete mess thanks to the idiots running the treasury and the BoE.
Prior to brexit unemployment was down to 4.9%, wage growth was 2% above inflation, GDP growth was accelerating and the deficit was coming down.
All living on the never never. We were heading for trouble come what may - the vote to leave the EU has probably just sped things up.
What a shame your childish and petulant behaviour is still unchanged 6 weeks later.
I had hoped your time off (albeit for deeply unpleasant reasons) would have provided you with some needed perspective.
We had about a fortnight of financial turbulence, following the vote on 23rd June, which has now subsided.
Yeah, I just thought we'd all moved on from the point scoring, finger pointing and early stages of grief, now, and we're moving into acceptance now with a focus on what happens next/should happen next.
Clearly, I was mistaken.
I suspect this will continue until the government starts cranking up again in September and we start getting some clear ideas about what Brexit will entail.
@ThreeQuidder The best thing for the country right now is to take stock and carefully consider what comes next. Most of the vitriol is coming from Leavers panic-stricken that they have to think about what they actually want as opposed to what they vehemently don't want.
Perhaps they might have considered that before they started playing ducks and drakes with the nation's future, as many of us advised.
@ThreeQuidder It's hard to have confidence in a country that has allowed itself to be persuaded into a course of action by demagogues and nutjobs. The reaction is natural.
The road back is going to be hard and expensive. Meanwhile, the Leavers will never accept their responsibility for the damage that they have done.
Oh dear. Get over yourself. You lost.
Now you have two courses of action open to you:
(1) Work for and argue for the best possible Leave (2) Sit on the sidelines, carping and moaning, hoping against hope that it will be a disaster just so that you can be proved right.
Don't be a (2).
You can believe Leave was a mistake and still try to make the best of it.
Yes, but Meeks and other (2)s aren't. They're praying for the country to suffer just so they can say "I told you so".
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
Wrong, on both counts.
FWIW these are confidence indicators, not economic reality, and the bank still thinks we can avoid recession.
I think you would rather be proved right than avoid economic turbulence.
It also assumes that everything would be okay if we'd voted to remain. Our public finances and economy in general is in a complete mess thanks to the idiots running the treasury and the BoE.
Prior to brexit unemployment was down to 4.9%, wage growth was 2% above inflation, GDP growth was accelerating and the deficit was coming down.
Plus a 7% current account deficit and massive boom in welfare with stagnant GDP per capita.
@ThreeQuidder It's hard to have confidence in a country that has allowed itself to be persuaded into a course of action by demagogues and nutjobs. The reaction is natural.
The road back is going to be hard and expensive. Meanwhile, the Leavers will never accept their responsibility for the damage that they have done.
Oh dear. Get over yourself. You lost.
Now you have two courses of action open to you:
(1) Work for and argue for the best possible Leave (2) Sit on the sidelines, carping and moaning, hoping against hope that it will be a disaster just so that you can be proved right.
Don't be a (2).
You can believe Leave was a mistake and still try to make the best of it. In fact, we're unlikely to make the best of it if we don't recognise its downsides. See frothing on here about Carney and BoE's decisions today.
Bit unfair to call it frothing SO. Just not sure that the rate cut is anything but a gesture. The other measures are more significant. Appreciate we're unlikely to ever see eye to eye on this though.
What a shame your childish and petulant behaviour is still unchanged 6 weeks later.
I had hoped your time off (albeit for deeply unpleasant reasons) would have provided you with some needed perspective.
We had about a fortnight of financial turbulence, following the vote on 23rd June, which has now subsided.
Yeah, I just thought we'd all moved on from the point scoring, finger pointing and early stages of grief, now, and we're moving into acceptance now with a focus on what happens next/should happen next.
Clearly, I was mistaken.
I suspect this will continue until the government starts cranking up again in September and we start getting some clear ideas about what Brexit will entail.
Yes, the recess is a God send as there's less scrutiny of Parliament. Behind the scenes, however I'm sure that there's a huge amount of work going on and HMG will hit the ground running when we restart in the autumn.
@ThreeQuidder The best thing for the country right now is to take stock and carefully consider what comes next. Most of the vitriol is coming from Leavers panic-stricken that they have to think about what they actually want as opposed to what they vehemently don't want.
Perhaps they might have considered that before they started playing ducks and drakes with the nation's future, as many of us advised.
No, you advised we cleave to a political union that we never wanted to be part of because some racists and homophobes wanted to leave.
@ThreeQuidder The best thing for the country right now is to take stock and carefully consider what comes next. Most of the vitriol is coming from Leavers panic-stricken that they have to think about what they actually want as opposed to what they vehemently don't want.
"Today’s Bank of England numbers forecast GDP unchanged at 2% for 2016, dropping to 0.8% in 2017 and rising again to 1.8% in 2018. No recession."
Perfectly possible to have yearly average GDP growth and still have a 2 quarter recession in there.
If you take a best case -0.1% for two quarters then it means the other two quarters will be +0.5% each. That's almost at trend. If that is the case then its mot exactly a big deal. I think the prospect of a year bumping along at 0.2% per quarter is probably worse.
Indeed and whilst recession has a very technical definition for economists people will feel a recession even if the data doesn't support there being one. Unemployment creeping up etc will feed in to a generally gloomy picture. In economic terms perception will trump facts all the time.
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
Wrong, on both counts.
FWIW these are confidence indicators, not economic reality, and the bank still thinks we can avoid recession.
I think you would rather be proved right than avoid economic turbulence.
It also assumes that everything would be okay if we'd voted to remain. Our public finances and economy in general is in a complete mess thanks to the idiots running the treasury and the BoE.
Prior to brexit unemployment was down to 4.9%, wage growth was 2% above inflation, GDP growth was accelerating and the deficit was coming down.
Plus a 7% current account deficit and massive boom in welfare with stagnant GDP per capita.
Asset price inflation is also way out of control in London/SE especially.
Prior to brexit unemployment was down to 4.9%, wage growth was 2% above inflation, GDP growth was accelerating and the deficit was coming down.
Yet the BoE left interest rates at 0.5%.
Quite. A real vote of confidence in the economy.
It was one thing that really annoyed me about Cameron. At PMQs he used to talk about the low interest rates as though they are good in the same way that economic growth and low unemployment are good things. Interest rates are neither good nor bad. They are just a tool for managing the things that matter.
@ThreeQuidder The best thing for the country right now is to take stock and carefully consider what comes next. Most of the vitriol is coming from Leavers panic-stricken that they have to think about what they actually want as opposed to what they vehemently don't want.
Perhaps they might have considered that before they started playing ducks and drakes with the nation's future, as many of us advised.
Heh. My parent's generation took me into the EU when I was 12. As I said before the event, I'd rather not have had the EUref in 2016 based on economic conditions. But there you have it.
Ultimately it's a personal decision. I'm sure you were heartbroken at the plight of the people in John Harris's articles, but nobly decided to vote Remain anyway.
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
Wrong, on both counts.
FWIW these are confidence indicators, not economic reality, and the bank still thinks we can avoid recession.
I think you would rather be proved right than avoid economic turbulence.
It also assumes that everything would be okay if we'd voted to remain. Our public finances and economy in general is in a complete mess thanks to the idiots running the treasury and the BoE.
Prior to brexit unemployment was down to 4.9%, wage growth was 2% above inflation, GDP growth was accelerating and the deficit was coming down.
Plus a 7% current account deficit and massive boom in welfare with stagnant GDP per capita.
GDP per capita was up every year since 2009 - $38,000 to $41,000 so hardly stagnant.
Current account deficit more of a problem, although not clear that it was an immediate issue.
@ThreeQuidder It's hard to have confidence in a country that has allowed itself to be persuaded into a course of action by demagogues and nutjobs. The reaction is natural.
The road back is going to be hard and expensive. Meanwhile, the Leavers will never accept their responsibility for the damage that they have done.
Oh dear. Get over yourself. You lost.
Now you have two courses of action open to you:
(1) Work for and argue for the best possible Leave (2) Sit on the sidelines, carping and moaning, hoping against hope that it will be a disaster just so that you can be proved right.
Don't be a (2).
You can believe Leave was a mistake and still try to make the best of it. In fact, we're unlikely to make the best of it if we don't recognise its downsides. See frothing on here about Carney and BoE's decisions today.
I am boring even myself about Brexit. From the point of view of someone who voted Remain, we rejected our best choice - to stay in the EU. This means all the other choices are relatively poor, but we do still have choices and it is important that make the best of the hand we have and limit the damage as much as we can.
I would make another couple of points.
Very few people voted Leave expecting any real cost to their choice. If the government goes for a minimum change option they will reduce that cost. What people are prepared to pay to get a particular level of separation needs to be tested. "Brexit means Brexit and it will be a success" is a meaningless soundbite.
My other point is that the Government and Theresa May in particular aren't showing a lot of tenderness towards those that wanted to stay in the EU and who, after all, make up half the population.
@ThreeQuidder I advised a simple cost-benefit analysis - Britain would be worse off culturally, morally and economically by following the lead of xenophobes, monomaniacs and nutjobs rather than remaining in the EU. So it is proving so far, as Leavers daily demonstrate that they are clueless, feckless, charmless and visionless.
If you want to understand why confidence has taken a battering, understand that.
@Casino_Royale Yes, it's everyone's fault except Leavers. It's pure coincidence that confidence has gone through the floor since the Brexit vote, all down to those wicked Remainers not accepting the result.
Or in the real world, cop onto yourself.
Confidence has gone through the floor because of endless apocalyptic headlines about how awful it's going to be. From Remoaners.
Lots of silliness on here from people whose judgement is completely fogged by their unwillingness to see any downside from Brexit. Everything done by Carney is viewed as a petulant conspiracy, anyone who even hints that we may be taking a self-imposed hit is a traitor to the realm. One awaits with interest the abuse to be heaped on Theresa if /when she goes less hard on Brexit than is to be desired. I personally did not think the rate cut was needed today but accept a judgement call made by those with greater access to the data and greater skill in understanding it than I could ever have. Everything is not a conspiracy because it goes against one's view.
It was a completely political decision and nothing to do with economics. And now Carney is pouring his counsel of establishment despair all over the markets.
@ThreeQuidder I advised a simple cost-benefit analysis - Britain would be worse off culturally, morally and economically by following the lead of xenophobes, monomaniacs and nutjobs rather than remaining in the EU. So it is proving so far, as Leavers daily demonstrate that they are clueless, feckless, charmless and visionless.
If you want to understand why confidence has taken a battering, understand that.
Prior to Brexit we were warned the effect of Brexit would force the Bank of England to look at interest rate rises. Today the rate was cut. People in the REMAIN camp were misleading us.
"(Bank of England (2016).) Brexit Risk – Implications for Economies and Markets, Citi (2016) commented: “…we see risks that sterling weakness in a Brexit scenario might trigger a surge in inflation expectations that pressures the MPC to hike rates significantly 2-3 years ahead to reaffirm their commitment to economic stability even amidst economic weakness and heightened uncertainty.”"
@ThreeQuidder I advised a simple cost-benefit analysis - Britain would be worse off culturally, morally and economically by following the lead of xenophobes, monomaniacs and nutjobs rather than remaining in the EU. So it is proving so far, as Leavers daily demonstrate that they are clueless, feckless, charmless and visionless.
If you want to understand why confidence has taken a battering, understand that.
Nonsense.
You went "ugh! Racists! Homophobes! Don't associate with them!"
The actual issues were never anything to you.
And now you're desperate for the country to suffer just so you can say "I told you so".
Not entirely sure of the point of 1/4% base rate cut. What possible difference is that really going to make?
Unless it was just to say "told you so".
Of itself it may not make much difference combined with the other measures it may well cushion the obvious shockwave from the decision taken in June. Definitely not as you surmise as central bankers aren't that interesting!
But Texas has gone Democrat before in 1960, 1964 and 1968 as well as most recently 1976. Interesting that they won even in close election years like 1960 and 1968.
Different Democrats.
If you look at a map of US election results, it inverts over the 1960s. 1968 is pretty much the pivotal year for this.
or
what JackW said.
The civil-rights platform vote at the 1948 DNC, if not beginning the inversion process, put the seal on it.
In modern political terms, Texas is moving back towards the Democrats but the state is extremely polarised; GOP power is reinforced by some heavy gerrymandering.
@ThreeQuidder I advised a simple cost-benefit analysis - Britain would be worse off culturally, morally and economically by following the lead of xenophobes, monomaniacs and nutjobs rather than remaining in the EU. So it is proving so far, as Leavers daily demonstrate that they are clueless, feckless, charmless and visionless.
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
Wrong, on both counts.
FWIW these are confidence indicators, not economic reality, and the bank still thinks we can avoid recession.
I think you would rather be proved right than avoid economic turbulence.
It also assumes that everything would be okay if we'd voted to remain. Our public finances and economy in general is in a complete mess thanks to the idiots running the treasury and the BoE.
Prior to brexit unemployment was down to 4.9%, wage growth was 2% above inflation, GDP growth was accelerating and the deficit was coming down.
Plus a 7% current account deficit and massive boom in welfare with stagnant GDP per capita.
GDP per capita was up every year since 2009 - $38,000 to $41,000 so hardly stagnant.
Current account deficit more of a problem, although not clear that it was an immediate issue.
GDP per capita compared to pre-crash levels was stagnant. Don't try and stack the deck.
@ThreeQuidder I advised a simple cost-benefit analysis - Britain would be worse off culturally, morally and economically by following the lead of xenophobes, monomaniacs and nutjobs rather than remaining in the EU. So it is proving so far, as Leavers daily demonstrate that they are clueless, feckless, charmless and visionless.
I object to that, I happen to think I have some charm.
@ThreeQuidder I advised a simple cost-benefit analysis - Britain would be worse off culturally, morally and economically by following the lead of xenophobes, monomaniacs and nutjobs rather than remaining in the EU. So it is proving so far, as Leavers daily demonstrate that they are clueless, feckless, charmless and visionless. If you want to understand why confidence has taken a battering, understand that.
We could excuse such unhinged rantings because of your personal circumstances. But you were spouting this elitist nonsense many months ago.
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
Wrong, on both counts.
FWIW these are confidence indicators, not economic reality, and the bank still thinks we can avoid recession.
I think you would rather be proved right than avoid economic turbulence.
It also assumes that everything would be okay if we'd voted to remain. Our public finances and economy in general is in a complete mess thanks to the idiots running the treasury and the BoE.
Prior to brexit unemployment was down to 4.9%, wage growth was 2% above inflation, GDP growth was accelerating and the deficit was coming down.
All living on the never never. We were heading for trouble come what may - the vote to leave the EU has probably just sped things up.
And today's decision means we're living on the never ever never!
Miss Plato, to 'reassure the public' will be the line used.
It could actually just be a lunatic. But if it were, then one would've expected a name/description to have emerged by now. If it's a terrorist, there could be reasons not to publicise his identity as yet. But then, if it were, flying the mental illness flag (which can't be especially pleasant for those who are mentally ill) is misleading at best.
Exactly, I don't mind the coppers not saying anything as 'lines of enquiry are followed' - but jumping to say it's mental illness is just wrong. We do get occasional terrible incidents where someone goes bananas without any political or religious agenda - thankfully not very many.
Most people with mental illness are more likely to harm themselves or their immediate family than random strangers. It is not unknown of course. But without knowing what is behind this latest sad incident there does seem to be a meme developing which seems to suggest that terrorists are not motivated by some ideology but are only acting as they do because of mental illness. This seems to me to be a mischaracterization: a person with mental issues may be easier to radicalize and persuade to doing such acts but the motivation behind it is not the illness but the ideology. By focusing on the former, we risk ignoring the latter.
People with mental illness should not become the latest scapegoats because we do not want to put the blame on the terrorist ideology and those who propagate it.
At any event, let us hope that this incident is not a terrorist one. It is quite sad enough as it is.
I know a couple of guys with schizophrenia - they get enough stigma without adding more. They experienced significant hostility when the media went through a psycho-killer phase a few years ago.
I'm of the view that terrorist organisations seek out the easily led/mentally ill as useful cannon-fodder. After all, why lose your generals when you can groom the expendable and gullible? As a percentage of the population - I'd imagine they're more prevalent than the master manipulators/sociopaths.
What most terrorists have in common is youth. It's far easier to incite under 25's to kill than people over that age.
Many of the inciters, though (radical preachers and the like) are older, though. Often much older. It's those people we need to stop.
Prior to Brexit we were warned the effect of Brexit would force the Bank of England to look at interest rate rises. Today the rate was cut. People in the REMAIN camp were misleading us.
"(Bank of England (2016).) Brexit Risk – Implications for Economies and Markets, Citi (2016) commented: “…we see risks that sterling weakness in a Brexit scenario might trigger a surge in inflation expectations that pressures the MPC to hike rates significantly 2-3 years ahead to reaffirm their commitment to economic stability even amidst economic weakness and heightened uncertainty.”"
Carnie's reputation should be in the gutter.
It proves that Carney was being political. The politician threatens swing voters with rate risers as the people they are appealing to generally have a mortgage. In reality Carney is more concerned with keeping house prices high and so has to do the opposite of what he was threatening.
@ThreeQuidder I advised a simple cost-benefit analysis - Britain would be worse off culturally, morally and economically by following the lead of xenophobes, monomaniacs and nutjobs rather than remaining in the EU. So it is proving so far, as Leavers daily demonstrate that they are clueless, feckless, charmless and visionless. If you want to understand why confidence has taken a battering, understand that.
We could excuse such unhinged rantings because of your personal circumstances. But you were spouting this elitist nonsense many months ago.
I don't mind an elitist anti-Leave view, but I expect some new analysis or insight with interesting points of view and possible courses of action. That's what pb is famed for.
Saying, 'I was right, you are all idiots.. I told you so, pillocks etc.', is just boring.
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
Wrong, on both counts.
FWIW these are confidence indicators, not economic reality, and the bank still thinks we can avoid recession.
I think you would rather be proved right than avoid economic turbulence.
It also assumes that everything would be okay if we'd voted to remain. Our public finances and economy in general is in a complete mess thanks to the idiots running the treasury and the BoE.
Prior to brexit unemployment was down to 4.9%, wage growth was 2% above inflation, GDP growth was accelerating and the deficit was coming down.
Plus a 7% current account deficit and massive boom in welfare with stagnant GDP per capita.
Asset price inflation is also way out of control in London/SE especially.
and likely now to get worse after this interest rate cut. Just daft. I can see Carnie having to raise interest rate up to 1% within 12 months, just to deal with the inflationary effects.
He should be gone. Completely. The worst governor we have ever had. Shocking.
That's right - let's shoot all the messengers - that'll boost growth and bring the economy round and that'll make the rest of the world sit up and listen
What a shame your childish and petulant behaviour is still unchanged 6 weeks later.
I had hoped your time off (albeit for deeply unpleasant reasons) would have provided you with some needed perspective.
We had about a fortnight of financial turbulence, following the vote on 23rd June, which has now subsided.
Yeah, I just thought we'd all moved on from the point scoring, finger pointing and early stages of grief, now, and we're moving into acceptance now with a focus on what happens next/should happen next.
Clearly, I was mistaken.
I find it incredibly depressing how some people are openly hoping, both on PB and elsewhere, for the UK to fall to bits just so that they can virtue signal their IN vote.
@ThreeQuidder I advised a simple cost-benefit analysis - Britain would be worse off culturally, morally and economically by following the lead of xenophobes, monomaniacs and nutjobs rather than remaining in the EU. So it is proving so far, as Leavers daily demonstrate that they are clueless, feckless, charmless and visionless.
I object to that, I happen to think I have some charm.
What a shame your childish and petulant behaviour is still unchanged 6 weeks later.
I had hoped your time off (albeit for deeply unpleasant reasons) would have provided you with some needed perspective.
We had about a fortnight of financial turbulence, following the vote on 23rd June, which has now subsided.
Yeah, I just thought we'd all moved on from the point scoring, finger pointing and early stages of grief, now, and we're moving into acceptance now with a focus on what happens next/should happen next.
Clearly, I was mistaken.
I find it incredibly depressing how some people are opening hoping, both on PB and elsewhere, for the UK to fall to bits just so that they can virtue signal their IN vote.
Yes, they haven't quite got their head round the fundamental fact of democracy: sometimes you lose.
He should be gone. Completely. The worst governor we have ever had. Shocking.
That's right - let's shoot all the messengers - that'll boost growth and bring the economy round and that'll make the rest of the world sit up and listen
What, the Spanish economy you mean? That's your economy now, yes?
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
Wrong, on both counts.
FWIW these are confidence indicators, not economic reality, and the bank still thinks we can avoid recession.
I think you would rather be proved right than avoid economic turbulence.
It also assumes that everything would be okay if we'd voted to remain. Our public finances and economy in general is in a complete mess thanks to the idiots running the treasury and the BoE.
Prior to brexit unemployment was down to 4.9%, wage growth was 2% above inflation, GDP growth was accelerating and the deficit was coming down.
All living on the never never. We were heading for trouble come what may - the vote to leave the EU has probably just sped things up.
And today's decision means we're living on the never ever never!
And look at how many people believe today's decisions are ill thought out. Not a single person I have spoken to in the last hour can name a tangible benefit of cutting rates and ramping up QE.
@Casino_Royale Your opinion of me is noted with indifference.
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
Wrong, on both counts.
FWIW these are confidence indicators, not economic reality, and the bank still thinks we can avoid recession.
I think you would rather be proved right than avoid economic turbulence.
It also assumes that everything would be okay if we'd voted to remain. Our public finances and economy in general is in a complete mess thanks to the idiots running the treasury and the BoE.
Prior to brexit unemployment was down to 4.9%, wage growth was 2% above inflation, GDP growth was accelerating and the deficit was coming down.
Plus a 7% current account deficit and massive boom in welfare with stagnant GDP per capita.
GDP per capita was up every year since 2009 - $38,000 to $41,000 so hardly stagnant.
Current account deficit more of a problem, although not clear that it was an immediate issue.
GDP per capita compared to pre-crash levels was stagnant. Don't try and stack the deck.
Yes, recessions destroy GDP by definition. The contention was that we were having a poor recovery and were about to slip into recession anyway - something demonstrably false.
@ThreeQuidder I advised a simple cost-benefit analysis - Britain would be worse off culturally, morally and economically by following the lead of xenophobes, monomaniacs and nutjobs rather than remaining in the EU. So it is proving so far, as Leavers daily demonstrate that they are clueless, feckless, charmless and visionless.
I object to that, I happen to think I have some charm.
Indeed you are ! What about clueless, feckless, and visionless ?
I think leaving the EU was a mistake, in direct economic terms, but also psychological terms because Leavers' rejection of globalisation, however understandable, makes it harder for the UK to find its way in the world. Nevertheless I am fascinated by how the huge mess will resolve itself, if indeed it will, and for that you have to hear the views of all sides of the argument.
He should be gone. Completely. The worst governor we have ever had. Shocking.
That's right - let's shoot all the messengers - that'll boost growth and bring the economy round and that'll make the rest of the world sit up and listen
What, the Spanish economy you mean? That's your economy now, yes?
I love the Spanish economy - it's been great for me - zero inflation, diesel at about £0.85 a litre and steadily falling unemployment for the last 4 years - and 325 sunny days every year! Wot's not to like?
@ThreeQuidder I advised a simple cost-benefit analysis - Britain would be worse off culturally, morally and economically by following the lead of xenophobes, monomaniacs and nutjobs rather than remaining in the EU. So it is proving so far, as Leavers daily demonstrate that they are clueless, feckless, charmless and visionless.
I object to that, I happen to think I have some charm.
Indeed you are ! What about clueless, feckless, and visionless ? :-)
I think leaving the EU was a mistake, in direct economic terms, but also psychological terms because Leavers' rejection of globalisation, however understandable, makes it harder for the UK to find its way in the world. Nevertheless I am fascinated by how the huge mess will resolve itself, if indeed it will, and for that you have to hear the views of all sides of the argument.
I'll plead guilty to occasional fecklessness. But obviously, consider myself charming and clueful . I'm not sure I necessarily have to have a vision though. That's a bit of a burden for an ordinary mortal.
Comments
I'm sure you would agree with me in hoping that it's just temporary.
Bank policymakers split over stimulus programme.
The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 9-0 to cut interest rates today.
However, Kristin Forbes opposed the plan to buy £10bn of corporate debt each month, meaning that vote was 8-1.
And the decision to boost quantitative easing was only carried by 6 votes to 3, with Forbes, Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale all voted against it.
Let the fight commence, the peace is not won even though the war is.
The road back is going to be hard and expensive. Meanwhile, the Leavers will never accept their responsibility for the damage that they have done.
First good outcome of the referendum today as my lifetime tracker mortgage costs ticked down again :-)
I used to respect you above almost all others on this board.
Now, I think you're a bit of a prat.
Now you have two courses of action open to you:
(1) Work for and argue for the best possible Leave
(2) Sit on the sidelines, carping and moaning, hoping against hope that it will be a disaster just so that you can be proved right.
Don't be a (2).
I see that you have no answer to the broader point, which is that we are now all paying through the nose for you to realise your fantasy. But there is no price tag which would make you conclude that it wasn't worth it.
That said, while there may be people who are in a way hoping things remain bad as a vindication of their position, if numbers are bad, pointing that out is not talking things down.
Pedant PS for Ed Conway - interest rates were already at their lowest since 1694
Don't be a (2).
Clearly, I was mistaken.
FWIW these are confidence indicators, not economic reality, and the bank still thinks we can avoid recession.
I think you would rather be proved right than avoid economic turbulence.
Guido's currently fisking the Treasury forecast on Brexit, but I really do not want to get into trading numbers. Just based on the BoE economic forecast today, we're going to spend a year as Italy, then a year as France. It's likely that growth will still exceed the EZ.
Perhaps they might have considered that before they started playing ducks and drakes with the nation's future, as many of us advised.
This is a political move not an economic one. Carney should have resigned or been sacked months ago.
The way the security forces are acting you would think there were white einzatzgruppen roaming the country executing 12 immigrants for every death.
Quite. Much better to leave our future in the hands of people like you. Who KNOW about these things.
It was one thing that really annoyed me about Cameron. At PMQs he used to talk about the low interest rates as though they are good in the same way that economic growth and low unemployment are good things. Interest rates are neither good nor bad. They are just a tool for managing the things that matter.
Ultimately it's a personal decision. I'm sure you were heartbroken at the plight of the people in John Harris's articles, but nobly decided to vote Remain anyway.
Not entirely sure of the point of 1/4% base rate cut. What possible difference is that really going to make?
Unless it was just to say "told you so".
It's hard to imagine that there will be no connection, but the figures over this period really are a one-off, so hard to pre-judge.
Current account deficit more of a problem, although not clear that it was an immediate issue.
I would make another couple of points.
Very few people voted Leave expecting any real cost to their choice. If the government goes for a minimum change option they will reduce that cost. What people are prepared to pay to get a particular level of separation needs to be tested. "Brexit means Brexit and it will be a success" is a meaningless soundbite.
My other point is that the Government and Theresa May in particular aren't showing a lot of tenderness towards those that wanted to stay in the EU and who, after all, make up half the population.
If you want to understand why confidence has taken a battering, understand that.
It was a completely political decision and nothing to do with economics. And now Carney is pouring his counsel of establishment despair all over the markets.
"(Bank of England (2016).) Brexit Risk – Implications for Economies and Markets, Citi (2016) commented: “…we see risks that sterling weakness in a Brexit scenario might trigger a surge in inflation expectations that pressures the MPC to hike rates significantly 2-3 years ahead to reaffirm their commitment to economic stability even amidst economic weakness and heightened uncertainty.”"
Carnie's reputation should be in the gutter.
You went "ugh! Racists! Homophobes! Don't associate with them!"
The actual issues were never anything to you.
And now you're desperate for the country to suffer just so you can say "I told you so".
In modern political terms, Texas is moving back towards the Democrats but the state is extremely polarised; GOP power is reinforced by some heavy gerrymandering.
He should be gone. Completely. The worst governor we have ever had. Shocking.
Saying, 'I was right, you are all idiots.. I told you so, pillocks etc.', is just boring.
https://twitter.com/KatieAllenGdn/status/761168669200248832
I think leaving the EU was a mistake, in direct economic terms, but also psychological terms because Leavers' rejection of globalisation, however understandable, makes it harder for the UK to find its way in the world. Nevertheless I am fascinated by how the huge mess will resolve itself, if indeed it will, and for that you have to hear the views of all sides of the argument.
I thought Mark Carney and @George_Osborne were clear that interest rates would have to go up if we voted for Brexit? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36976528 …