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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB’s leadership weakness and another double digit Tory lea
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB’s leadership weakness and another double digit Tory lead will increase the clamour for an early election
This is being driven by a honeymoon for the new PM plus of course the huge weakness that LAB is currently portraying following the colossal vote of no confidence in Corbyn by 81% of the party’s MPs. His position is simply untenable but he’s struggling on and is favourite to beat off the leadership challenge.
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and 2017 election?... nice!
Indeed, it's striking that other than the Bataclan attack, it's hard to think of any act of Islamic terrorism in the West in the last five years has involved more than a single actor.
This is not because - I'm sure - ISIS and Al Queada and the like don't want to do big things with many people, but because the likelihood of being detected in the planning stage increases exponentially with every person involves. (A sort of Metcalfe's Law for likelihood of being found out.)
As a result the new mode of ISIS is to try and 'groom' disaffected Muslims in the West. Partly this will be done through the Mosques and traditional channels. But increasingly, I suspect, it's through on-line groups. Likely actors will be identified and then repeatedly encouraged and prodded and helped to go do something terrible. I suspect that many of the techniques used by child molestors will be used here as well.
The good news is that - because this is largely technology driven - there is plenty for the intelligence services to do. I suspect lists of people regularly using Tor or (slightly) anonymous overseas VPNs will be a starting point. I also suspect there are probably teams of people pretending to be slightly radicalised Muslims on-line to try and find the sources of the poison.
There will, of course, still be people "inspired" by ISIS out there. But I suspect that - just as the intelligence services did such a good job on clamping down on terrorist networks post 9/11 - they will do a surprisingly good job now. It's just that going from one attack every month to one every three doesn't make great headlines.
Election speculation is something that excites journalists and commentators but not the vast bulk of folk. Nobody is clamouring for an election.
The leadership contest shows how Jeremy has already won the debate in the party and the country
http://labourlist.org/2016/08/manuel-cortes/
I know one shouldn't feel events more deeply when they're closer - but my frame of reference for Russell square is strong. Having lived nearby I've had great fun with friends and family in the square itself, nearby Bloomsbury pubs, the Renoir etc. I also stay at the Russell at least once most months. In short, it is one of my favourite places in London. Always so safe, congenial, generally large numbers of students, but also a mixed demographic of local elderly, some decent social housing nearby too.
Clinton 45 .. Trump 42
http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-34549BEAED04456D
We are also in a Parliamentary democracy, rather than a Presidential one.
I am encouraged by how quickly and effectively the armed police tasered and cordened off this guy before approaching him. They sound well rehearsed.
If Corbyn came up with a hard left manifesto, would Blairite MPs go on TV to defend it? Would they promote it in literature to their constituents? I'm trying to imagine Chukka Umunna explaining to Andrew Neil the merits of renationalising the coal mines or something and I just can't.
I doubt very much if most people were that moved by the EU debate at all or the concept of a referendum. Once it was on I think people engaged with it to an extent. However I don't think there was a clamour for a referendum or that the EU issue had mass traction.
A spring election where each party can put its Brexit plans to the electorate would work well for her. If the economy does go belly up in the meantime or if Labour boots out Jezza things could be different. We should have some idea after conference season and Autumn Statement are out of the way.
http://www.univision.com/univision-news/politics/exclusive-new-poll-shows-trump-has-a-big-hispanic-problem-in-florida
http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2014/07/travel/aviation-data/
'Terrorism' is more difficult to define, but in the Western world it's not several hundred per year, so probably more chance of dying in a plane crash. Sometimes of course, the two overlap (MH17, Lockerbie etc).
I recall a period when the IRA were pretty active and we jumped to conclusions that explosions were planned. Then it all went quiet - blasts went back to being gas leaks or fires effecting propane cylinders in restaurants et al. Now almost all major incidents/random attacks are assumed to be Islamists, rather than accidents or rogue nutters.
Rubio would have won.
If May can demonstrate or point to real sovereign wins (James Forsyth has suggested trade deals, UK law supremacy and border control - and she'd need a clear win on at least one) reinforced by a few symbols, perhaps by announcing the return of the blue passport by 2021, and legalisation of goods to be sold in pounds and ounces as well as metric, particularly for market traders and small businesses, then she'll be applauded.
If we just technically quit the EU (I.e. we cease to be an official legal member, but virtually nothing else changes - and perhaps even a political mechanism is devised for us to continue to both be subject to and input into EU rules) then I think May would be entering troubled political waters.
You can never account for one nutter not being anywhere.
http://nymag.com/news/9-11/10th-anniversary/planes/
In contrast, the plane that belly flopped at DXB yesterday had 300 on board. They all got out, although one firefighter was killed, not sure what happened yet.
Labour are looking increasingly doomed. I am not one of those who believe that is a good thing.
The substantive point being that losing hispanics by huge margins only ensures that Trump's path in the EC is vastly more difficult than it already was.
An ineffective opposition reduces the quality of our governance, and undermines democracy. I have several left-wing friends who now feel there is no-one to vote for.
It just feels like the plane is about to go down.
May's majority is small, but her adversaries are more split than one would expect. It depends how the Conservative MPs stack up, I think, as to whether trying to go early would make sense.
However the hispanic demographic time-bomb continues to badly damage the GOP and has done so since Bush II left office. New Mexico is now a blue state and Nevada and Colorado are heading there too. Arizona is competitive this cycle and the diminishing Cuban influence in Florida is clear.
Additionally even those states with smaller but growing hispanic populations in Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina may tip a tight race. Pissing off minority populations is a dumb arse strategy for the GOP, they knew it from 08/12 and have done nothing to address the problem, save make it worse.
[edited for typos]
Had a look through Twitter - reports of deceased lady in group with other Spaniards.
Sky intvd a chappy with an incredibly strong Irish accent, I've heard it twice now and almost no idea what he was saying.
https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/760900870351486977
Now will you just feck off and let us get on with our lives.
Come back & ask us again in 3 or 4 years if there's something that needs our immediate attention.
Otherwise do the jobs you're very handsomely paid to do.....
Oh, and if it's bouncing around don't look at the wing tips, especially not on the new 787 or A350 - the wings bend much more than most people think they will!
Video of them testing a 777 wing to destruction, look at the angle of it when it finally breaks, at over 150% of the design load.
YouTube.com/Ai2HmvAXcU0
http://avherald.com Is a constantly updated list of incidents and accidents worldwide. Lots of minor problems but very few major incidents which is testament to the industry focus on safety over the past few decades.
Memories of that flight are right up there with airport security as reasons to fly only when it is absolutely necessary.
At just 5ft, they ended up thrown about/bashed knees and elbows/one on crutches. Broken legs seemed to be the most likely injury from the dummy tests. For anyone who loves this sort of practical Top Gear style show, it's a must watch. The seats were totally trashed taking the impact.
Sometimes you have to really fight for your neocortex to overcome your brainstem.
However, Mrs May will be pragmatic, I think we'll get a restriction on freedom of movement, and those who want full fat Brexit will be disappointed, as we saw with Dave, the Hard Brexiteers can make a majority of 12 ungovernable.
With Jez already demanding an early election, that should make meeting the provisions of the fixed term parliament act easy
This will be your video:
https://youtu.be/ClX2yldxZPw
First started taking commercial flights in the 70s, in the DC-10 days. Became used to 'turbulence'.
Then took a flight in a light aircraft from Miami to Sarasota. We encountered a storm system. That's when I discovered what real turbulence is. I have rarely been more frightened.