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  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Masterful strategy by Trump, I'm sure it's all going o rebound on Clinton real soon now.

    https://twitter.com/YAppelbaum/status/760966915414261761?s=09
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    I'm already hearing of US tourists cancelling their trips to the UK because of fear of the attacks in Europe. This won't help one bit.

    Probably not but that will be because everyone will jump to the wrong conclusion and then when it is categorically shown to be a non-Terror related incident will scream 'conspiracy'.
    Well not releasing the perpetrator's name doesn't help. If it was gang related then they'd have done it by now and that would be that.
    Quite. TBH, I'm getting rather sick of mental health being the knee-jerk reasoning. As if that's it somehow acceptable to cast aspersions on the ill, rather than OTT religious.

    Had a look through Twitter - reports of deceased lady in group with other Spaniards.

    Sky intvd a chappy with an incredibly strong Irish accent, I've heard it twice now and almost no idea what he was saying.
    Would they have actually released his name so quickly? In any case, if not announcing his name is useful for intelligence purposes, so be it. You wouldn't want all his associates going to ground simply because the newspapers wanted to print a name!
    Yes, but that's an indication it might be a terror attack rather than a more mundane variety of gang violence that has blighted London for a long time.
    But that goes back to my first point: are names typically released 6 hours after similar incidents?
    In gang related incidents they are normally pretty fast to get pictures and names up. Then again, the victim is normally a young black man who's name would also be out there by now with the parents urging any other perpetrators to come forwards. If this is a case of gang violence, so far it follows none of the established patterns.
    Twitter eye witness says young man was of North African appearance, yelling at police - them shouting back 'stop stop stop' before Tazering.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,682
    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    First started taking commercial flights in the 70s, in the DC-10 days. Became used to 'turbulence'.

    Then took a flight in a light aircraft from Miami to Sarasota. We encountered a storm system. That's when I discovered what real turbulence is. I have rarely been more frightened.

    The worst I had was flying into Tokyo when there was a local weather system present. I've never experienced a plane wobbling and swinging so much before landing. It really did feel like we would crash land that day.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,557

    On topic, I think we'll get a Brexit, because Brexit means Brexit, but Brexit means different things to different people.

    However, Mrs May will be pragmatic, I think we'll get a restriction on freedom of movement, and those who want full fat Brexit will be disappointed, as we saw with Dave, the Hard Brexiteers can make a majority of 12 ungovernable.

    With Jez already demanding an early election, that should make meeting the provisions of the fixed term parliament act easy

    The really important thing in Brexit is that we are out. Once we are no longer subject to the ECJ, no longer automatically subject to EU legislation and no longer wasting our time in that ridiculous EU Parliament everything else becomes more flexible.

    If we have to agree more than we ultimately want in terms of movement at this stage it is not forever. It will change over time as we gradually ease away from the EU. Pragmatism really should be the order of the day. We have changed course away from ever closer union to a detached but hopefully friendly trading arrangement with our near neighbours. Thank god (other deities are apparently available).
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,686

    Pounds and ounces? What is this? the stone age? I'd prefer if the government didnt waste its time with nonsense such as that.

    They wouldn't be wasting their time. They'd be saving councils on ridiculous snooping by trading standards to ensure plums are not being flogged by the pound.
  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    edited August 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    I'm already hearing of US tourists cancelling their trips to the UK because of fear of the attacks in Europe. This won't help one bit.

    Isn't the chance of being involved in a terrorist incident less than dying in a plane crash?
    Fatalities in commercial aviation: a few hundred per year and rapidly declining. Includes Indonesia, Africa and Air France where safety records are crap.
    http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2014/07/travel/aviation-data/

    'Terrorism' is more difficult to define, but in the Western world it's not several hundred per year, so probably more chance of dying in a plane crash. Sometimes of course, the two overlap (MH17, Lockerbie etc).
    Should have probably clarified - as an American/Westerner. I realise things are rougher in the Mid East, for example.
    If you're British, have a normal job with no dangerous travel and go on holiday with a British or major international airline, your chances of dying in either a commercial plane crash or a terrorist attack are statistically zero. Both are in the single figures per year over the last decade - yet we worry endlessly about both.
    Irrational though it is, I crap myself on flights at the slightest whiff of turbulence. The 'BING' of the pilot putting on the 'fasten your seatbelt' sign, accompanied by the cabin illuminated light, doesn't help my nerves or the drama either. A lot of people tense up.

    It just feels like the plane is about to go down.
    Planes don't drop out of the sky for no reason. A good friend of mine is a pilot, ex RAF now BA, he said that he had never experienced "severe" turbulence. I fly a lot, other than SeanT and Robert I probably fly the most on here and I have never experienced severe turbulence. I'm sure the other two will tell you the same. Flying is extremely safe, and if you stick to and airline with a solid safety and maintenance records then the chances of an engine or fuselage failure is close to nil.
    Not sure about that! I travel a fair bit as well. In the last couple of months I've been to France, Germany, Finland, and India some multiple times. I'm off to India again in a week or so and going back to Finland. Saying all that, I agree with you. The only 'severe' turbulence I've experienced was flying from Stornoway to Glasgow during a storm, in a twin otter!!! That was about 20 years ago though :grin:
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,161
    On topic, not having the MPs to get a Brexit deal through sounds like a feature not a bug. May obviously doesn't want to Brexit and whatever deal she ended up with the voters would hate her for it - does she really want to give up the ability to blame a lack of action on somebody else?

    As far as the normal consideration of staying in power goes, if Corbyn loses his job then the election isn't necessarily going to be an easy win, and if he wins then why shorten her guaranteed time in office from eight years to five?
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    Masterful strategy by Trump, I'm sure it's all going o rebound on Clinton real soon now.

    twitter.com/YAppelbaum/status/760966915414261761?s=09

    If I was writing a thread for PB this weekend, it would be about 'Is Donald Trump following the Monty Brewster strategy for losing elections?'
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    I'm already hearing of US tourists cancelling their trips to the UK because of fear of the attacks in Europe. This won't help one bit.

    Probably not but that will be because everyone will jump to the wrong conclusion and then when it is categorically shown to be a non-Terror related incident will scream 'conspiracy'.
    Well not releasing the perpetrator's name doesn't help. If it was gang related then they'd have done it by now and that would be that.
    Quite. TBH, I'm getting rather sick of mental health being the knee-jerk reasoning. As if that's it somehow acceptable to cast aspersions on the ill, rather than OTT religious.

    Had a look through Twitter - reports of deceased lady in group with other Spaniards.

    Sky intvd a chappy with an incredibly strong Irish accent, I've heard it twice now and almost no idea what he was saying.
    Would they have actually released his name so quickly? In any case, if not announcing his name is useful for intelligence purposes, so be it. You wouldn't want all his associates going to ground simply because the newspapers wanted to print a name!
    Yes, but that's an indication it might be a terror attack rather than a more mundane variety of gang violence that has blighted London for a long time.
    No -- there actually was another knife murder in London yesterday that can act as a control group. One dead, two injured: no names.
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/police-launch-murder-probe-after-man-is-stabbed-on-battersea-estate-a3311426.html
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    On topic, I think we'll get a Brexit, because Brexit means Brexit, but Brexit means different things to different people.

    However, Mrs May will be pragmatic, I think we'll get a restriction on freedom of movement, and those who want full fat Brexit will be disappointed, as we saw with Dave, the Hard Brexiteers can make a majority of 12 ungovernable.

    With Jez already demanding an early election, that should make meeting the provisions of the fixed term parliament act easy

    The really important thing in Brexit is that we are out. Once we are no longer subject to the ECJ, no longer automatically subject to EU legislation and no longer wasting our time in that ridiculous EU Parliament everything else becomes more flexible.

    If we have to agree more than we ultimately want in terms of movement at this stage it is not forever. It will change over time as we gradually ease away from the EU. Pragmatism really should be the order of the day. We have changed course away from ever closer union to a detached but hopefully friendly trading arrangement with our near neighbours. Thank god (other deities are apparently available).
    This.
  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    First started taking commercial flights in the 70s, in the DC-10 days. Became used to 'turbulence'.

    Then took a flight in a light aircraft from Miami to Sarasota. We encountered a storm system. That's when I discovered what real turbulence is. I have rarely been more frightened.

    The worst I had was flying into Tokyo when there was a local weather system present. I've never experienced a plane wobbling and swinging so much before landing. It really did feel like we would crash land that day.
    I had a wonderful flight from Austin to Tampa where the pilot was flying round huge storm cells. Watching the lightning storms was fantastic.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pennsylvania - Franklin Marshall

    Clinton 48 .. Trump 35 - RV
    Clinton 49 .. Trump 38 - LV

    http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/517148503881751921-f-m-poll-release-july-2016.pdf
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,682

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    I'm already hearing of US tourists cancelling their trips to the UK because of fear of the attacks in Europe. This won't help one bit.

    Probably not but that will be because everyone will jump to the wrong conclusion and then when it is categorically shown to be a non-Terror related incident will scream 'conspiracy'.
    Well not releasing the perpetrator's name doesn't help. If it was gang related then they'd have done it by now and that would be that.
    Quite. TBH, I'm getting rather sick of mental health being the knee-jerk reasoning. As if that's it somehow acceptable to cast aspersions on the ill, rather than OTT religious.

    Had a look through Twitter - reports of deceased lady in group with other Spaniards.

    Sky intvd a chappy with an incredibly strong Irish accent, I've heard it twice now and almost no idea what he was saying.
    Would they have actually released his name so quickly? In any case, if not announcing his name is useful for intelligence purposes, so be it. You wouldn't want all his associates going to ground simply because the newspapers wanted to print a name!
    Yes, but that's an indication it might be a terror attack rather than a more mundane variety of gang violence that has blighted London for a long time.
    No -- there actually was another knife murder in London yesterday that can act as a control group. One dead, two injured: no names.
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/police-launch-murder-probe-after-man-is-stabbed-on-battersea-estate-a3311426.html
    Surely that's because they haven't got the perpetrator in custody.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,077
    Blue_rog said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    I'm already hearing of US tourists cancelling their trips to the UK because of fear of the attacks in Europe. This won't help one bit.

    Isn't the chance of being involved in a terrorist incident less than dying in a plane crash?
    'Terrorism' is more difficult to define, but in the Western world it's not several hundred per year, so probably more chance of dying in a plane crash. Sometimes of course, the two overlap (MH17, Lockerbie etc).
    Should have probably clarified - as an American/Westerner. I realise things are rougher in the Mid East, for example.
    If you're British, have a normal job with no dangerous travel and go on holiday with a British or major international airline, your chances of dying in either a commercial plane crash or a terrorist attack are statistically zero. Both are in the single figures per year over the last decade - yet we worry endlessly about both.
    Irrational though it is, I crap myself on flights at the slightest whiff of turbulence. The 'BING' of the pilot putting on the 'fasten your seatbelt' sign, accompanied by the cabin illuminated light, doesn't help my nerves or the drama either. A lot of people tense up.

    It just feels like the plane is about to go down.
    Planes don't drop out of the sky for no reason. A good friend of mine is a pilot, ex RAF now BA, he said that he had never experienced "severe" turbulence. I fly a lot, other than SeanT and Robert I probably fly the most on here and I have never experienced severe turbulence. I'm sure the other two will tell you the same. Flying is extremely safe, and if you stick to and airline with a solid safety and maintenance records then the chances of an engine or fuselage failure is close to nil.
    Not sure about that! I travel a fair bit as well. In the last couple of months I've been to France, Germany, Finland, and India some multiple times. I'm off to India again in a week or so and going back to Finland. Saying all that, I agree with you. The only 'severe' turbulence I've experienced was flying from Stornoway to Glasgow during a storm, in a twin otter!!! That was about 20 years ago though :grin:
    The Twotter is built like a tank, but they are still pretty small and comparatively light, get blown around a lot in the wind. If you fly Cessnas and gliders, it's possible to get severe turbulence on a nice summer's day from the updrafts and downdrafts of the cloud systems. Great fun :)
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,682
    Blue_rog said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    I'm already hearing of US tourists cancelling their trips to the UK because of fear of the attacks in Europe. This won't help one bit.

    Isn't the chance of being involved in a terrorist incident less than dying in a plane crash?
    Fatalities in commercial aviation: a few hundred per year and rapidly declining. Includes Indonesia, Africa and Air France where safety records are crap.
    http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2014/07/travel/aviation-data/

    'Terrorism' is more difficult to define, but in the Western world it's not several hundred per year, so probably more chance of dying in a plane crash. Sometimes of course, the two overlap (MH17, Lockerbie etc).
    Should have probably clarified - as an American/Westerner. I realise things are rougher in the Mid East, for example.
    If you're British, have a normal job with no dangerous travel and go on holiday with a British or major international airline, your chances of dying in either a commercial plane crash or a terrorist attack are statistically zero. Both are in the single figures per year over the last decade - yet we worry endlessly about both.
    Irrational though it is, I crap myself on flights at the slightest whiff of turbulence. The 'BING' of the pilot putting on the 'fasten your seatbelt' sign, accompanied by the cabin illuminated light, doesn't help my nerves or the drama either. A lot of people tense up.

    It just feels like the plane is about to go down.
    Planes don't drop out of the sky for no reason. A good friend of mine is a pilot, ex RAF now BA, he said that he had never experienced "severe" turbulence. I fly a lot, other than SeanT and Robert I probably fly the most on here and I have never experienced severe turbulence. I'm sure the other two will tell you the same. Flying is extremely safe, and if you stick to and airline with a solid safety and maintenance records then the chances of an engine or fuselage failure is close to nil.
    Not sure about that! I travel a fair bit as well. In the last couple of months I've been to France, Germany, Finland, and India some multiple times. I'm off to India again in a week or so and going back to Finland. Saying all that, I agree with you. The only 'severe' turbulence I've experienced was flying from Stornoway to Glasgow during a storm, in a twin otter!!! That was about 20 years ago though :grin:
    Another frequent flyer! I don't see you banging on about Heathrow as much as other frequent flyers which is why I didn't know!
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,932
    Morning all :)

    Hard to argue with OGH's reasoning and while I look forward to a Conservative landslide with as much enthusiasm as root canal work, it's a possibility that can't be ignored.

    That being said, May has to negotiate a difficult passage through to next spring/summer because winter is when things go wrong, people get irritable and mistakes get made. The global situation has plenty of traps and problems even if the immediate economic shock from the LEAVE vote turns out to be brief.

    The Machiavellian argument that Labour needs a big defeat to get rid of Corbyn and re-group may be valid but it's up there with hitting yourself over the head with a brick to get rid of a headache.

    We've yet to really test May and see if her voting coalition is simply a mile wide and an inch deep as they all turn out to be sooner or later.
  • Options
    I once saw some sort of documentary on fear of flying. I can't remember the reassuring statistics but it did confirm that tightly gripping the arm rests of your seat did not have any effect on the safety of the plane.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Pounds and ounces? What is this? the stone age? I'd prefer if the government didnt waste its time with nonsense such as that.

    They wouldn't be wasting their time. They'd be saving councils on ridiculous snooping by trading standards to ensure plums are not being flogged by the pound.
    I still work in the imperial system. Metric is for dullards and the feeble-minded. Mind you, that's partly due to my career. Computing means being comfortable with several base systems (binary, octal, hex) and modular arithmetic to boot.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,077

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    I'm already hearing of US tourists cancelling their trips to the UK because of fear of the attacks in Europe. This won't help one bit.

    Probably not but that will be because everyone will jump to the wrong conclusion and then when it is categorically shown to be a non-Terror related incident will scream 'conspiracy'.
    Well not releasing the perpetrator's name doesn't help. If it was gang related then they'd have done it by now and that would be that.
    Quite. TBH, I'm getting rather sick of mental health being the knee-jerk reasoning. As if that's it somehow acceptable to cast aspersions on the ill, rather than OTT religious.

    Had a look through Twitter - reports of deceased lady in group with other Spaniards.

    Sky intvd a chappy with an incredibly strong Irish accent, I've heard it twice now and almost no idea what he was saying.
    Would they have actually released his name so quickly? In any case, if not announcing his name is useful for intelligence purposes, so be it. You wouldn't want all his associates going to ground simply because the newspapers wanted to print a name!
    Yes, but that's an indication it might be a terror attack rather than a more mundane variety of gang violence that has blighted London for a long time.
    No -- there actually was another knife murder in London yesterday that can act as a control group. One dead, two injured: no names.
    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/police-launch-murder-probe-after-man-is-stabbed-on-battersea-estate-a3311426.html
    The vastly different media coverage of the two incidents suggests there's something unusual about the Russell Square one though.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,932
    HYUFD said:

    Jeb Bush's half Hispanic son George P is now Texas Land Commissioner and may run for governor in 2018. He is a good bet to beat Kaine in 2024 and succeed Hillary and finally return a Republican to the White House

    Nope, Susana Martinez will beat Tim Kaine in 2020.

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,557

    I once saw some sort of documentary on fear of flying. I can't remember the reassuring statistics but it did confirm that tightly gripping the arm rests of your seat did not have any effect on the safety of the plane.

    Rubbish. Its the only thing keeping it up there.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,037
    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on the customs union, regarding our exit from the EU?
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Blue_rog said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    First started taking commercial flights in the 70s, in the DC-10 days. Became used to 'turbulence'.

    Then took a flight in a light aircraft from Miami to Sarasota. We encountered a storm system. That's when I discovered what real turbulence is. I have rarely been more frightened.

    The worst I had was flying into Tokyo when there was a local weather system present. I've never experienced a plane wobbling and swinging so much before landing. It really did feel like we would crash land that day.
    I had a wonderful flight from Austin to Tampa where the pilot was flying round huge storm cells. Watching the lightning storms was fantastic.
    Try landing on the Azores, enough wind there to make you feel really nervous, happened both times I visited.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    May has no popular mandate. The British don't like being bossed around by unelected busy bodies. May needs to call an election asap.

    The only reason May is now Prime Minister is BECAUSE the British don't like being bossed around by unelected busy bodies.

  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Pounds and ounces? What is this? the stone age? I'd prefer if the government didnt waste its time with nonsense such as that.

    They wouldn't be wasting their time. They'd be saving councils on ridiculous snooping by trading standards to ensure plums are not being flogged by the pound.
    Precisely. The nonsense is the government telling people they can't use perfectly well understood weights and measures because they happen not to be the most recent one, and spending resources enforcing this.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,288
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    I'm already hearing of US tourists cancelling their trips to the UK because of fear of the attacks in Europe. This won't help one bit.

    Isn't the chance of being involved in a terrorist incident less than dying in a plane crash?
    Fatalities in commercial aviation: a few hundred per year and rapidly declining. Includes Indonesia, Africa and Air France where safety records are crap.
    http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2014/07/travel/aviation-data/

    'Terrorism' is more difficult to define, but in the Western world it's not several hundred per year, so probably more chance of dying in a plane crash. Sometimes of course, the two overlap (MH17, Lockerbie etc).
    Should have probably clarified - as an American/Westerner. I realise things are rougher in the Mid East, for example.
    If you're British, have a normal job with no dangerous travel and go on holiday with a British or major international airline, your chances of dying in either a commercial plane crash or a terrorist attack are statistically zero. Both are in the single figures per year over the last decade - yet we worry endlessly about both.
    Irrational though it is, I crap myself on flights at the slightest whiff of turbulence. The 'BING' of the pilot putting on the 'fasten your seatbelt' sign, accompanied by the cabin illuminated light, doesn't help my nerves or the drama either. A lot of people tense up.

    It just feels like the plane is about to go down.
    Planes don't drop out of the sky for no reason. A good friend of mine is a pilot, ex RAF now BA, he said that he had never experienced "severe" turbulence. I fly a lot, other than SeanT and Robert I probably fly the most on here and I have never experienced severe turbulence. I'm sure the other two will tell you the same. Flying is extremely safe, and if you stick to and airline with a solid safety and maintenance records then the chances of an engine or fuselage failure is close to nil.
    I think you'll find Charles is number one flyer on the site!
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,493
    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - Franklin Marshall

    Clinton 48 .. Trump 35 - RV
    Clinton 49 .. Trump 38 - LV

    http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/517148503881751921-f-m-poll-release-july-2016.pdf

    Ouch, in 2012 Obama took PA by 52-47.
  • Options

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on the customs union, regarding our exit from the EU?

    I'm fine with us remaining a member of it, though I know I'm in a minority with that view.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    I'm already hearing of US tourists cancelling their trips to the UK because of fear of the attacks in Europe. This won't help one bit.

    Isn't the chance of being involved in a terrorist incident less than dying in a plane crash?
    Fatalities in commercial aviation: a few hundred per year and rapidly declining. Includes Indonesia, Africa and Air France where safety records are crap.
    http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2014/07/travel/aviation-data/

    'Terrorism' is more difficult to define, but in the Western world it's not several hundred per year, so probably more chance of dying in a plane crash. Sometimes of course, the two overlap (MH17, Lockerbie etc).
    Also, pretty astonishing that 2001 doesn't even register on that graph...
    Didn't think of that. Turns out there were only 200 passengers combined on the four planes that fateful day. They were thankfully all pretty empty.
    http://nymag.com/news/9-11/10th-anniversary/planes/

    In contrast, the plane that belly flopped at DXB yesterday had 300 on board. They all got out, although one firefighter was killed, not sure what happened yet.
    I watched a great Mythbusters on Travel channel yesterday re the relative safety of airline seats/brace positions/where's safest. The presenters are braver than me. After building a pretty sophisticated rig, dropping it from a crane with crash dummies to measure G-forces/injuries - they climbed on board...

    At just 5ft, they ended up thrown about/bashed knees and elbows/one on crutches. Broken legs seemed to be the most likely injury from the dummy tests. For anyone who loves this sort of practical Top Gear style show, it's a must watch. The seats were totally trashed taking the impact.
    Love Mythbusters, great show and taught a whole generation of kids that science was cool.
    This will be your video:
    ttps://youtu.be/ClX2yldxZPw
    :lol: I loved the water bullet myth - just incredible stuff from seriously scary looking weapons.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1uaLWAZXfk
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Blue_rog said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    First started taking commercial flights in the 70s, in the DC-10 days. Became used to 'turbulence'.

    Then took a flight in a light aircraft from Miami to Sarasota. We encountered a storm system. That's when I discovered what real turbulence is. I have rarely been more frightened.

    The worst I had was flying into Tokyo when there was a local weather system present. I've never experienced a plane wobbling and swinging so much before landing. It really did feel like we would crash land that day.
    I had a wonderful flight from Austin to Tampa where the pilot was flying round huge storm cells. Watching the lightning storms was fantastic.
    Try landing on the Azores, enough wind there to make you feel really nervous, happened both times I visited.
    Azores? Pah! Try Madeira....
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,077
    MaxPB said:

    Blue_rog said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    I'm already hearing of US tourists cancelling their trips to the UK because of fear of the attacks in Europe. This won't help one bit.

    Should have probably clarified - as an American/Westerner. I realise things are rougher in the Mid East, for example.
    If you're British, have a normal job with no dangerous travel and go on holiday with a British or major international airline, your chances of dying in either a commercial plane crash or a terrorist attack are statistically zero. Both are in the single figures per year over the last decade - yet we worry endlessly about both.
    Irrational though it is, I crap myself on flights at the slightest whiff of turbulence. The 'BING' of the pilot putting on the 'fasten your seatbelt' sign, accompanied by the cabin illuminated light, doesn't help my nerves or the drama either. A lot of people tense up.

    It just feels like the plane is about to go down.
    Planes don't drop out of the sky for no reason. A good friend of mine is a pilot, ex RAF now BA, he said that he had never experienced "severe" turbulence. I fly a lot, other than SeanT and Robert I probably fly the most on here and I have never experienced severe turbulence. I'm sure the other two will tell you the same. Flying is extremely safe, and if you stick to and airline with a solid safety and maintenance records then the chances of an engine or fuselage failure is close to nil.
    Not sure about that! I travel a fair bit as well. In the last couple of months I've been to France, Germany, Finland, and India some multiple times. I'm off to India again in a week or so and going back to Finland. Saying all that, I agree with you. The only 'severe' turbulence I've experienced was flying from Stornoway to Glasgow during a storm, in a twin otter!!! That was about 20 years ago though :grin:
    Another frequent flyer! I don't see you banging on about Heathrow as much as other frequent flyers which is why I didn't know!
    Fly through Amsterdam, much more civilised ;)
    Are @SeanT's recent rants about LHR not confined to a shortage of lobster in the BA Concorde lounge?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,682
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    I'm already hearing of US tourists cancelling their trips to the UK because of fear of the attacks in Europe. This won't help one bit.

    Isn't the chance of being involved in a terrorist incident less than dying in a plane crash?
    Fatalities in commercial aviation: a few hundred per year and rapidly declining. Includes Indonesia, Africa and Air France where safety records are crap.
    http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2014/07/travel/aviation-data/

    'Terrorism' is more difficult to define, but in the Western world it's not several hundred per year, so probably more chance of dying in a plane crash. Sometimes of course, the two overlap (MH17, Lockerbie etc).
    Should have probably clarified - as an American/Westerner. I realise things are rougher in the Mid East, for example.
    If you're British, have a normal job with no dangerous travel and go on holiday with a British or major international airline, your chances of dying in either a commercial plane crash or a terrorist attack are statistically zero. Both are in the single figures per year over the last decade - yet we worry endlessly about both.
    Irrational though it is, I crap myself on flights at the slightest whiff of turbulence. The 'BING' of the pilot putting on the 'fasten your seatbelt' sign, accompanied by the cabin illuminated light, doesn't help my nerves or the drama either. A lot of people tense up.

    It just feels like the plane is about to go down.
    Planes don't drop out of the sky for no reason. A good friend of mine is a pilot, ex RAF now BA, he said that he had never experienced "severe" turbulence. I fly a lot, other than SeanT and Robert I probably fly the most on here and I have never experienced severe turbulence. I'm sure the other two will tell you the same. Flying is extremely safe, and if you stick to and airline with a solid safety and maintenance records then the chances of an engine or fuselage failure is close to nil.
    I think you'll find Charles is number one flyer on the site!
    Our resident travelling salesman! Forgot about him, he's GGL as well isn't he.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,037
    Incidentally, as well as a short story in the Explorations sci-fi anthology out at the end of this month (including contributions from best-selling authors like Jo Zebedee and Ralph Kern), I've just had a short fantasy story accepted into the Across the World anthology.

    No word on publication date yet, but the lineup is really good (Julia Knight, Douglas Hulick, Adrian Tchaikovsky to name a few). Bit surprised I got in, actually.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,037
    Mr. Eagles, cheers. I should've been a bit clearer, though. I didn't mean what was your preference, but what do you think will happen regarding the UK and the customs union? Will we stay, or will we go?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Incidentally, as well as a short story in the Explorations sci-fi anthology out at the end of this month (including contributions from best-selling authors like Jo Zebedee and Ralph Kern), I've just had a short fantasy story accepted into the Across the World anthology.

    No word on publication date yet, but the lineup is really good (Julia Knight, Douglas Hulick, Adrian Tchaikovsky to name a few). Bit surprised I got in, actually.

    Gratz, Mr Dancer.
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    DavidL said:

    On topic, I think we'll get a Brexit, because Brexit means Brexit, but Brexit means different things to different people.

    However, Mrs May will be pragmatic, I think we'll get a restriction on freedom of movement, and those who want full fat Brexit will be disappointed, as we saw with Dave, the Hard Brexiteers can make a majority of 12 ungovernable.

    With Jez already demanding an early election, that should make meeting the provisions of the fixed term parliament act easy

    The really important thing in Brexit is that we are out. Once we are no longer subject to the ECJ, no longer automatically subject to EU legislation and no longer wasting our time in that ridiculous EU Parliament everything else becomes more flexible.

    If we have to agree more than we ultimately want in terms of movement at this stage it is not forever. It will change over time as we gradually ease away from the EU. Pragmatism really should be the order of the day. We have changed course away from ever closer union to a detached but hopefully friendly trading arrangement with our near neighbours. Thank god (other deities are apparently available).
    Very sensible David. But of course the Lib Dems don't see things like that.

    Their plan now is to engineer a non-Brexit which can be flipped back to EU membership a few years later. I really doubt Mrs. May agrees with them, though.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,077
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    I'm already hearing of US tourists cancelling their trips to the UK because of fear of the attacks in Europe. This won't help one bit.

    Isn't the chance of being involved in a terrorist incident less than dying in a plane crash?
    Fatalities in commercial aviation: a few hundred per year and rapidly declining. Includes Indonesia, Africa and Air France where safety records are crap.
    http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2014/07/travel/aviation-data/

    'Terrorism' is more difficult to define, but in the Western world it's not several hundred per year, so probably more chance of dying in a plane crash. Sometimes of course, the two overlap (MH17, Lockerbie etc).
    Also, pretty astonishing that 2001 doesn't even register on that graph...
    Didn't think of that. Turns out there were only 200 passengers combined on the four planes that fateful day. They were thankfully all pretty empty.
    http://nymag.com/news/9-11/10th-anniversary/planes/

    In contrast, the plane that belly flopped at DXB yesterday had 300 on board. They all got out, although one firefighter was killed, not sure what happened yet.
    I watched a great Mythbusters on Travel channel yesterday re the relative safety of airline seats/brace positions/where's safest. The presenters are braver than me. After building a pretty sophisticated rig, dropping it from a crane with crash dummies to measure G-forces/injuries - they climbed on board...

    At just 5ft, they ended up thrown about/bashed knees and elbows/one on crutches. Broken legs seemed to be the most likely injury from the dummy tests. For anyone who loves this sort of practical Top Gear style show, it's a must watch. The seats were totally trashed taking the impact.
    Love Mythbusters, great show and taught a whole generation of kids that science was cool.
    This will be your video:
    ttps://youtu.be/ClX2yldxZPw
    :lol: I loved the water bullet myth - just incredible stuff from seriously scary looking weapons.
    ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1uaLWAZXfk
    Yes, and with an unexpected conclusion too. Don't use a .50 sniper rifle to shoot underwater!
  • Options
    My worst flying trip, was with my mate Rob, we went to America.

    He's a nervous flyer, was loving the service in first class, he got a little drunk he decided that was a good time for him to have a discussion with me on terrorism, why I wasn't religious, and what he'd do with 72 virgins, usually within ear shot of the flight crew.

    I spent the entire flight worrying that when we landed in New York, Homeland Security would be putting me on a one way flight to Gitmo.
  • Options

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on the customs union, regarding our exit from the EU?

    I'm fine with us remaining a member of it, though I know I'm in a minority with that view.
    Though you were also fine with us remaining so that doesn't say much. Being out of the EU but in the customs union seems to be the worst combination imaginable.
  • Options

    Mr. Eagles, cheers. I should've been a bit clearer, though. I didn't mean what was your preference, but what do you think will happen regarding the UK and the customs union? Will we stay, or will we go?

    I think it'll depend entirely on what else we get part of the deal, if it is a Brexit in name only deal, then I expect a lot of leavers will be quite upset if we remain in a customs union.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Incidentally, as well as a short story in the Explorations sci-fi anthology out at the end of this month (including contributions from best-selling authors like Jo Zebedee and Ralph Kern), I've just had a short fantasy story accepted into the Across the World anthology.

    No word on publication date yet, but the lineup is really good (Julia Knight, Douglas Hulick, Adrian Tchaikovsky to name a few). Bit surprised I got in, actually.

    I only know Tchaikovsky (read the first half dozen of his 'Apt' series), but congratulations Mr Dancer, well deserved. I enjoyed your 'Journey to Altmortis'.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,557

    Incidentally, as well as a short story in the Explorations sci-fi anthology out at the end of this month (including contributions from best-selling authors like Jo Zebedee and Ralph Kern), I've just had a short fantasy story accepted into the Across the World anthology.

    No word on publication date yet, but the lineup is really good (Julia Knight, Douglas Hulick, Adrian Tchaikovsky to name a few). Bit surprised I got in, actually.

    Congratulations. I admire your perseverance and hope it is rewarded in due course.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ToryJim said:

    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - Franklin Marshall

    Clinton 48 .. Trump 35 - RV
    Clinton 49 .. Trump 38 - LV

    http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/517148503881751921-f-m-poll-release-july-2016.pdf

    Ouch, in 2012 Obama took PA by 52-47.
    Clearly a single very bad poll for Trump. However we are in the convention bounce window and Trump's also been having a bad hair day for some time .....

    If next week the polls are in same mood then the Trumpster will end in the dumpster.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,932
    rcs1000 said:

    <
    I think you'll find Charles is number one flyer on the site!

    Yes, for me trains are business, planes are leisure.

    I love long-haul flying - stick me in Business or Premium Economy at a pinch and a flight to Singapore, Hong Kong or across the Atlantic and I'm happy.

    I've never had poor service - the likes of Singapore Airlines and Air New Zealand are very good and even British Airways aren't too bad. I hear good things about Qatar Airways but haven't had the pleasure yet.

    Turbulence - the worst I ever encountered was on a flight from Napier to Auckland due to storms over the central ranges. One hour of purgatory though we've had plenty of fun from Las Vegas trying to get over the Rockies in storms but once we cleared that, it was fine.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    I'm already hearing of US tourists cancelling their trips to the UK because of fear of the attacks in Europe. This won't help one bit.

    Isn't the chance of being involved in a terrorist incident less than dying in a plane crash?
    Fatalities in commercial aviation: a few hundred per year and rapidly declining. Includes Indonesia, Africa and Air France where safety records are crap.
    http://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2014/07/travel/aviation-data/

    'Terrorism' is more difficult to define, but in the Western world it's not several hundred per year, so probably more chance of dying in a plane crash. Sometimes of course, the two overlap (MH17, Lockerbie etc).
    Should have probably clarified - as an American/Westerner. I realise things are rougher in the Mid East, for example.
    If you're British, have a normal job with no dangerous travel and go on holiday with a British or major international airline, your chances of dying in either a commercial plane crash or a terrorist attack are statistically zero. Both are in the single figures per year over the last decade - yet we worry endlessly about both.
    Irrational though it is, I crap myself on flights at the slightest whiff of turbulence. The 'BING' of the pilot putting on the 'fasten your seatbelt' sign, accompanied by the cabin illuminated light, doesn't help my nerves or the drama either. A lot of people tense up.

    It just feels like the plane is about to go down.
    A few years ago now I had a flight back from Manchester to Edinburgh. Within a few minutes of taking off we were told that there was to be no cabin service and the crew were strapping themselves in. We then bounced and dropped the entire journey. When the pilot tried to land at Edinburgh the plane was swinging from side to side and at the very last second the pilot soared into the sky again saying he could not hold it and we had to come around again.

    Memories of that flight are right up there with airport security as reasons to fly only when it is absolutely necessary.
    That sounds bloody awful.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,557
    runnymede said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic, I think we'll get a Brexit, because Brexit means Brexit, but Brexit means different things to different people.

    However, Mrs May will be pragmatic, I think we'll get a restriction on freedom of movement, and those who want full fat Brexit will be disappointed, as we saw with Dave, the Hard Brexiteers can make a majority of 12 ungovernable.

    With Jez already demanding an early election, that should make meeting the provisions of the fixed term parliament act easy

    The really important thing in Brexit is that we are out. Once we are no longer subject to the ECJ, no longer automatically subject to EU legislation and no longer wasting our time in that ridiculous EU Parliament everything else becomes more flexible.

    If we have to agree more than we ultimately want in terms of movement at this stage it is not forever. It will change over time as we gradually ease away from the EU. Pragmatism really should be the order of the day. We have changed course away from ever closer union to a detached but hopefully friendly trading arrangement with our near neighbours. Thank god (other deities are apparently available).
    Very sensible David. But of course the Lib Dems don't see things like that.

    Their plan now is to engineer a non-Brexit which can be flipped back to EU membership a few years later. I really doubt Mrs. May agrees with them, though.
    My expectation is that no matter what sort of trading relationship we have with the EU even up to staying in the Single Market we will find that the trend by which it forms a diminishing part of our trade will sharply accelerate and within a relatively short period of time going back will be pretty much inconceivable. Obviously concluding trade deals with the major players that the EU has not been able to reach arrangements with could assist in that.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Blue_rog said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    First started taking commercial flights in the 70s, in the DC-10 days. Became used to 'turbulence'.

    Then took a flight in a light aircraft from Miami to Sarasota. We encountered a storm system. That's when I discovered what real turbulence is. I have rarely been more frightened.

    The worst I had was flying into Tokyo when there was a local weather system present. I've never experienced a plane wobbling and swinging so much before landing. It really did feel like we would crash land that day.
    I had a wonderful flight from Austin to Tampa where the pilot was flying round huge storm cells. Watching the lightning storms was fantastic.
    Try landing on the Azores, enough wind there to make you feel really nervous, happened both times I visited.
    Azores? Pah! Try Madeira....
    been there too and the flights had been cancelled the prev day because of high winds and planes had to land on the mainland, the next day it was a piece of cake when we landed.. this was April 2016.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,077

    My worst flying trip, was with my mate Rob, we went to America.

    He's a nervous flyer, was loving the service in first class, he got a little drunk he decided that was a good time for him to have a discussion with me on terrorism, why I wasn't religious, and what he'd do with 72 virgins, usually within ear shot of the flight crew.

    I spent the entire flight worrying that when we landed in New York, Homeland Security would be putting me on a one way flight to Gitmo.

    Oh dear, that's not good on any flight, let alone one to the USA.

    I realised on a plane last week that next on the iPad reading list was an accident report of a fatal plane crash, figured the nervous flyer missus wouldn't fancy seeing it so skipped over after a few pages!

    Were you not supposed to be gracing the sandpit with your presence this week? What happened, too hot for you?
  • Options

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on the customs union, regarding our exit from the EU?

    I'm fine with us remaining a member of it, though I know I'm in a minority with that view.
    Though you were also fine with us remaining so that doesn't say much. Being out of the EU but in the customs union seems to be the worst combination imaginable.
    I read something the other day, I can't remember where, that one of the options was for us to engage in a phased exit, so we'd Leave the EU on Day 1, but remain part/adhere to the rules of the single market and custom unions for x years, and withdraw from them both within a set time frame.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,682
    .

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on the customs union, regarding our exit from the EU?

    I'm fine with us remaining a member of it, though I know I'm in a minority with that view.
    Though you were also fine with us remaining so that doesn't say much. Being out of the EU but in the customs union seems to be the worst combination imaginable.
    I read something the other day, I can't remember where, that one of the options was for us to engage in a phased exit, so we'd Leave the EU on Day 1, but remain part/adhere to the rules of the single market and custom unions for x years, and withdraw from them both within a set time frame.
    Surely we'd have to leave the customs union immediately as well since we'd be unable to conclude our own independent trade deals without leaving.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,037
    Mr. L, cheers. Me too :p

    Mr. M, thanks. I've read the first two Apt books (keep meaning to get the next but I don't have much reading time). The trilogy I'm writing is set in the same world as Journey to Altmortis, but in Denland rather than the Kuhrland.

    Mr. Marks, thanks :)

    Mr. Eagles, cheers for that answer.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    I think you'll find Charles is number one flyer on the site!

    I think that accolade firmly belongs to your father .... he's flown a huge number of kites on PB .... :smile:

  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    My worst flying trip, was with my mate Rob, we went to America.

    He's a nervous flyer, was loving the service in first class, he got a little drunk he decided that was a good time for him to have a discussion with me on terrorism, why I wasn't religious, and what he'd do with 72 virgins, usually within ear shot of the flight crew.

    I spent the entire flight worrying that when we landed in New York, Homeland Security would be putting me on a one way flight to Gitmo.

    Oh dear, that's not good on any flight, let alone one to the USA.

    I realised on a plane last week that next on the iPad reading list was an accident report of a fatal plane crash, figured the nervous flyer missus wouldn't fancy seeing it so skipped over after a few pages!

    Were you not supposed to be gracing the sandpit with your presence this week? What happened, too hot for you?
    Because the American trip got curtailed because of the Zika virus, we've decided to go to Dubai later on in the year, my Dad's relieved, we were only going because my Mother wanted to buy some new jewellery.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    RobD said:

    Pounds and ounces? What is this? the stone age? I'd prefer if the government didnt waste its time with nonsense such as that.

    I think you'll find we didn't have any systems of measurement back in the stone age. The imperial and metric systems are both arbitrary, the latter simply caters for people who can't multiply by anything but 10.
    It's easier and more convenient then, why should we not cater then?
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    MaxPB said:

    .

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on the customs union, regarding our exit from the EU?

    I'm fine with us remaining a member of it, though I know I'm in a minority with that view.
    Though you were also fine with us remaining so that doesn't say much. Being out of the EU but in the customs union seems to be the worst combination imaginable.
    I read something the other day, I can't remember where, that one of the options was for us to engage in a phased exit, so we'd Leave the EU on Day 1, but remain part/adhere to the rules of the single market and custom unions for x years, and withdraw from them both within a set time frame.
    Surely we'd have to leave the customs union immediately as well since we'd be unable to conclude our own independent trade deals without leaving.
    Yes. The only phased exit approach that makes sense is an initial exit to the EEA.

    The kind of 'process' being outlined here is just an attempt to delay exit hoping 'something will come up' that can delay it forever. Typical civil service nonsense.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    .

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on the customs union, regarding our exit from the EU?

    I'm fine with us remaining a member of it, though I know I'm in a minority with that view.
    Though you were also fine with us remaining so that doesn't say much. Being out of the EU but in the customs union seems to be the worst combination imaginable.
    I read something the other day, I can't remember where, that one of the options was for us to engage in a phased exit, so we'd Leave the EU on Day 1, but remain part/adhere to the rules of the single market and custom unions for x years, and withdraw from them both within a set time frame.
    Surely we'd have to leave the customs union immediately as well since we'd be unable to conclude our own independent trade deals without leaving.
    I'll try and dig out the article, but it was more we'd adhere to the rules of the customs union, whilst sorting out our own trade deals at the same time.

    Gist was the time frames made exiting the EU and having all the new trade deals in place for Day 1 of our exit unlikely.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,077
    edited August 2016
    Whoops!
    Labour's boycott of G4S could leave them with no security at their conference - no-one else wants the job apart from ShowSec, who are also hated by the unions.
    http://order-order.com/2016/08/04/labour-party-conference-security-crisis/
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821

    My worst flying trip, was with my mate Rob, we went to America.

    He's a nervous flyer, was loving the service in first class, he got a little drunk he decided that was a good time for him to have a discussion with me on terrorism, why I wasn't religious, and what he'd do with 72 virgins, usually within ear shot of the flight crew.

    I spent the entire flight worrying that when we landed in New York, Homeland Security would be putting me on a one way flight to Gitmo.

    Who wants 72 virgins?

    I'd want ladies who knew what they were doing.
  • Options
    Has anyone seen Paddy Ashdown and Southam in the same room together?

    @paddyashdown: Under May the Tories look quiet. But the swivel eyed Brexiteer monster is stirring. Betrayal will be the word most heard at their Conference
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    DavidL said:

    runnymede said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic, I think we'll get a Brexit, because Brexit means Brexit, but Brexit means different things to different people.

    However, Mrs May will be pragmatic, I think we'll get a restriction on freedom of movement, and those who want full fat Brexit will be disappointed, as we saw with Dave, the Hard Brexiteers can make a majority of 12 ungovernable.

    With Jez already demanding an early election, that should make meeting the provisions of the fixed term parliament act easy

    The really important thing in Brexit is that we are out. Once we are no longer subject to the ECJ, no longer automatically subject to EU legislation and no longer wasting our time in that ridiculous EU Parliament everything else becomes more flexible.

    If we have to agree more than we ultimately want in terms of movement at this stage it is not forever. It will change over time as we gradually ease away from the EU. Pragmatism really should be the order of the day. We have changed course away from ever closer union to a detached but hopefully friendly trading arrangement with our near neighbours. Thank god (other deities are apparently available).
    Very sensible David. But of course the Lib Dems don't see things like that.

    Their plan now is to engineer a non-Brexit which can be flipped back to EU membership a few years later. I really doubt Mrs. May agrees with them, though.
    My expectation is that no matter what sort of trading relationship we have with the EU even up to staying in the Single Market we will find that the trend by which it forms a diminishing part of our trade will sharply accelerate and within a relatively short period of time going back will be pretty much inconceivable. Obviously concluding trade deals with the major players that the EU has not been able to reach arrangements with could assist in that.
    I'm pretty sure that is correct. The existing terms of membership certainly skew UK trade more towards the EU than it otherwise would be. And over time the EU's slow relative growth will erode its trade share as well.

    The Remainers of course are not stupid and will be aware of this - hence their various fall back proposals to keep as many pro-EU trade distortions in place as possible. Apart from the customs union wheeze there is also chat about remaining in the CAP or something like it and (staggeringly) the CFP as well.

  • Options
    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Sandpit said:

    Whoops!
    Labour's boycott of G4S could leave them with no security at their conference - no-one else wants the job apart from ShowSec, who are also hated by the unions.
    http://order-order.com/2016/08/04/labour-party-conference-security-crisis/

    You see, I think them having a conference will do more damage.

    But I also want this story in the news, front and centre. It sums up why Labour are a shambles - short term thinking over G4S over an ideological issue biting them on the arse long term.

    Attack lines write themselves.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,077
    edited August 2016

    Sandpit said:

    My worst flying trip, was with my mate Rob, we went to America.

    He's a nervous flyer, was loving the service in first class, he got a little drunk he decided that was a good time for him to have a discussion with me on terrorism, why I wasn't religious, and what he'd do with 72 virgins, usually within ear shot of the flight crew.

    I spent the entire flight worrying that when we landed in New York, Homeland Security would be putting me on a one way flight to Gitmo.

    Oh dear, that's not good on any flight, let alone one to the USA.

    I realised on a plane last week that next on the iPad reading list was an accident report of a fatal plane crash, figured the nervous flyer missus wouldn't fancy seeing it so skipped over after a few pages!

    Were you not supposed to be gracing the sandpit with your presence this week? What happened, too hot for you?
    Because the American trip got curtailed because of the Zika virus, we've decided to go to Dubai later on in the year, my Dad's relieved, we were only going because my Mother wanted to buy some new jewellery.
    Sensible idea, it's bloody hot here in August! Starts to get reasonable/bearable around the middle of October, major events are the Rugby 7s in November and the Abu Dhabi F1 a week later at the beginning of December if you're interested. There's also some cricket on over the winter (Pakistan home games) but will have to look up the dates.

    Jewellery is very cheap here. Mrs Sandpit got a 1ct engagement ring for the price of a 1/2 ct ring in UK. Friends have come here specifically for that reason and saved the cost of their holiday as well as pleasing their missus.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,290
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jeb Bush's half Hispanic son George P is now Texas Land Commissioner and may run for governor in 2018. He is a good bet to beat Kaine in 2024 and succeed Hillary and finally return a Republican to the White House

    Nope, Susana Martinez will beat Tim Kaine in 2020.

    Susana Martinez by then will no longer be in office and a distant memory
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465
    HYUFD said:

    Most Labour MPs will back May in a 'soft BREXIT' deal to spite Corbyn even if a number of Tory MPs oppose her and demand a 'hard BREXIT' so May should get a deal through the Commons without the need for an election to increase her majority. She should therefore be able to wait until 2020

    On topic, there may well be a certain ironic mirror to all this in that Heath only got the original European Communities Act through parliament due to Labour rebels counteracting the dissidents on his own side.
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Whoops!
    Labour's boycott of G4S could leave them with no security at their conference - no-one else wants the job apart from ShowSec, who are also hated by the unions.
    http://order-order.com/2016/08/04/labour-party-conference-security-crisis/

    You see, I think them having a conference will do more damage.

    But I also want this story in the news, front and centre. It sums up why Labour are a shambles - short term thinking over G4S over an ideological issue biting them on the arse long term.

    Attack lines write themselves.
    To be fair to Labour, G4S are a shocking company, anyone who has ever dealt with them would quite happily boycott them too.
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    theakestheakes Posts: 845
    What clamour?. Nobody I meet ever mentions it. In any case it is virtually impossible to create a scenario to have one, given the fixed term Parliament. If the Conservatives contrive twice to create a vote of no confidence in themselves they will be a laughing stock. Please forget an election it will be in 2020.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited August 2016
    runnymede said:

    DavidL said:

    runnymede said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic, I think we'll get a Brexit, because Brexit means Brexit, but Brexit means different things to different people.

    However, Mrs May will be pragmatic, I think we'll get a restriction on freedom of movement, and those who want full fat Brexit will be disappointed, as we saw with Dave, the Hard Brexiteers can make a majority of 12 ungovernable.

    With Jez already demanding an early election, that should make meeting the provisions of the fixed term parliament act easy

    The really important thing in Brexit is that we are out. Once we are no longer subject to the ECJ, no longer automatically subject to EU legislation and no longer wasting our time in that ridiculous EU Parliament everything else becomes more flexible.
    Very sensible David. But of course the Lib Dems don't see things like that.

    Their plan now is to engineer a non-Brexit which can be flipped back to EU membership a few years later. I really doubt Mrs. May agrees with them, though.
    My expectation is that no matter what sort of trading relationship we have with the EU even up to staying in the Single Market we will find that the trend by which it forms a diminishing part of our trade will sharply accelerate and within a relatively short period of time going back will be pretty much inconceivable. Obviously concluding trade deals with the major players that the EU has not been able to reach arrangements with could assist in that.
    I'm pretty sure that is correct. The existing terms of membership certainly skew UK trade more towards the EU than it otherwise would be. And over time the EU's slow relative growth will erode its trade share as well.

    The Remainers of course are not stupid and will be aware of this - hence their various fall back proposals to keep as many pro-EU trade distortions in place as possible. Apart from the customs union wheeze there is also chat about remaining in the CAP or something like it and (staggeringly) the CFP as well.

    While I don't mind fact-checking post-EUref claims, its now up to the government. I've read enough to appreciate the complexities of withdrawal - there are too many to summarise succinctly. The details can be left to DexEU.

    I will wait PM May's broad outline of what she thinks 'Brexit' is with interest. If I don't like it, I shall scweam and scweam on Twitter, just as my forefathers did. There may be hashtags at dawn.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,926
    edited August 2016
    runnymede said:

    MaxPB said:

    .

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on the customs union, regarding our exit from the EU?

    I'm fine with us remaining a member of it, though I know I'm in a minority with that view.
    Though you were also fine with us remaining so that doesn't say much. Being out of the EU but in the customs union seems to be the worst combination imaginable.
    I read something the other day, I can't remember where, that one of the options was for us to engage in a phased exit, so we'd Leave the EU on Day 1, but remain part/adhere to the rules of the single market and custom unions for x years, and withdraw from them both within a set time frame.
    Surely we'd have to leave the customs union immediately as well since we'd be unable to conclude our own independent trade deals without leaving.
    Yes. The only phased exit approach that makes sense is an initial exit to the EEA.

    The kind of 'process' being outlined here is just an attempt to delay exit hoping 'something will come up' that can delay it forever. Typical civil service nonsense.
    Are you sure we are unable to conclude separate third party Trade Agreements without leaving the Customs Union?

    That is precisely what Turkey does at present.

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    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    My worst flying trip, was with my mate Rob, we went to America.

    He's a nervous flyer, was loving the service in first class, he got a little drunk he decided that was a good time for him to have a discussion with me on terrorism, why I wasn't religious, and what he'd do with 72 virgins, usually within ear shot of the flight crew.

    I spent the entire flight worrying that when we landed in New York, Homeland Security would be putting me on a one way flight to Gitmo.

    Oh dear, that's not good on any flight, let alone one to the USA.

    I realised on a plane last week that next on the iPad reading list was an accident report of a fatal plane crash, figured the nervous flyer missus wouldn't fancy seeing it so skipped over after a few pages!

    Were you not supposed to be gracing the sandpit with your presence this week? What happened, too hot for you?
    Because the American trip got curtailed because of the Zika virus, we've decided to go to Dubai later on in the year, my Dad's relieved, we were only going because my Mother wanted to buy some new jewellery.
    Sensible idea, it's bloody hot here in August! Starts to get reasonable/bearable around the middle of October, major events are the Rugby 7s in November and the Abu Dhabi F1 a week later at the beginning of December if you're interested. There's also some cricket on over the winter (Pakistan home games) but will have to look up the dates.
    Oooh, The Grand Prix sounds like a splendid idea
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,290

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on the customs union, regarding our exit from the EU?

    I'm fine with us remaining a member of it, though I know I'm in a minority with that view.
    Though you were also fine with us remaining so that doesn't say much. Being out of the EU but in the customs union seems to be the worst combination imaginable.
    52% of voters want to stay in the single market according to Comres with some controlled freedom of movement, only 26% want to leave the single market and end free movement completely
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,682

    MaxPB said:

    .

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on the customs union, regarding our exit from the EU?

    I'm fine with us remaining a member of it, though I know I'm in a minority with that view.
    Though you were also fine with us remaining so that doesn't say much. Being out of the EU but in the customs union seems to be the worst combination imaginable.
    I read something the other day, I can't remember where, that one of the options was for us to engage in a phased exit, so we'd Leave the EU on Day 1, but remain part/adhere to the rules of the single market and custom unions for x years, and withdraw from them both within a set time frame.
    Surely we'd have to leave the customs union immediately as well since we'd be unable to conclude our own independent trade deals without leaving.
    I'll try and dig out the article, but it was more we'd adhere to the rules of the customs union, whilst sorting out our own trade deals at the same time.

    Gist was the time frames made exiting the EU and having all the new trade deals in place for Day 1 of our exit unlikely.
    I think that's why May will seek an extension to A50 and not trigger it until next year. We need at least four years to conclude non-EU trade deals, or at least have them ready to sign on the day we leave. It's one of the reasons the EEA is attractive, it enables us to continue our relationship with the single market is it is, while also getting our non-EU deals done. If in 5-10 years we find that the EEA is unsuitable and we need a bespoke deal with the EU then we can look at that, but we will be much less reliant on EU trade by that point so any disruption in the relationship will not be economically damaging. This year we're on course for 60% of our exports going to non-EU destinations, the current trends are for 2020 to have almost 70% of our exports going to non-EU destinations. If we were to leave the EU I wouldn't be surprised if that figure rose to 75%.
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    theakes said:

    What clamour?. Nobody I meet ever mentions it. In any case it is virtually impossible to create a scenario to have one, given the fixed term Parliament. If the Conservatives contrive twice to create a vote of no confidence in themselves they will be a laughing stock. Please forget an election it will be in 2020.

    the clamour appears to be from the Lib Dems.

    1) little to lose ha ha
    2) hoping somehow it makes exiting their beloved EU less likely.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,932
    Sandpit said:

    Sensible idea, it's bloody hot here in August! Starts to get reasonable/bearable around the middle of October, major events are the Rugby 7s in November and the Abu Dhabi F1 a week later at the beginning of December if you're interested. There's also some cricket on over the winter (Pakistan home games) but will have to look up the dates.

    And of course the horse racing at Meydan from January. One of the finest tracks in the world by all accounts .

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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Incidentally, as well as a short story in the Explorations sci-fi anthology out at the end of this month (including contributions from best-selling authors like Jo Zebedee and Ralph Kern), I've just had a short fantasy story accepted into the Across the World anthology.

    No word on publication date yet, but the lineup is really good (Julia Knight, Douglas Hulick, Adrian Tchaikovsky to name a few). Bit surprised I got in, actually.

    Congrats, Sir! :smiley:
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,148

    Blue_rog said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    First started taking commercial flights in the 70s, in the DC-10 days. Became used to 'turbulence'.

    Then took a flight in a light aircraft from Miami to Sarasota. We encountered a storm system. That's when I discovered what real turbulence is. I have rarely been more frightened.

    The worst I had was flying into Tokyo when there was a local weather system present. I've never experienced a plane wobbling and swinging so much before landing. It really did feel like we would crash land that day.
    I had a wonderful flight from Austin to Tampa where the pilot was flying round huge storm cells. Watching the lightning storms was fantastic.
    Try landing on the Azores, enough wind there to make you feel really nervous, happened both times I visited.
    Azores? Pah! Try Madeira....
    Alderney can be somewhat hairy. Small plane, often lots of wind and one flies in over some nasty-looking jagged cliffs.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,932
    Sandpit said:

    Whoops!
    Labour's boycott of G4S could leave them with no security at their conference - no-one else wants the job apart from ShowSec, who are also hated by the unions.
    http://order-order.com/2016/08/04/labour-party-conference-security-crisis/

    Dreadful - groups of Tories could wander in and alter Labour Party policy and the leadership.

    Oh wait...

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,037
    Mr. Eagles, if you do go the race I hope you enjoy it. If you go shirt-shopping you'll probably end up bumping into Eddie Jordan :p
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465
    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:

    <
    I think you'll find Charles is number one flyer on the site!

    Yes, for me trains are business, planes are leisure.

    I love long-haul flying - stick me in Business or Premium Economy at a pinch and a flight to Singapore, Hong Kong or across the Atlantic and I'm happy.

    I've never had poor service - the likes of Singapore Airlines and Air New Zealand are very good and even British Airways aren't too bad. I hear good things about Qatar Airways but haven't had the pleasure yet.

    Turbulence - the worst I ever encountered was on a flight from Napier to Auckland due to storms over the central ranges. One hour of purgatory though we've had plenty of fun from Las Vegas trying to get over the Rockies in storms but once we cleared that, it was fine.
    ha - I'm the precisely opposite: planes for function, trains for fun.

    I don't get the attraction of business class on aircraft (or more accurately, I don't think it's worth the cost; I'd happily take an upgrade). Yes, you're away from economy passengers and yes, the facilities and service are better but there's something unbalanced about paying the same for a flight as for a decent three-week holiday. But then I view all air travel as inherently boring.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,290

    HYUFD said:

    Most Labour MPs will back May in a 'soft BREXIT' deal to spite Corbyn even if a number of Tory MPs oppose her and demand a 'hard BREXIT' so May should get a deal through the Commons without the need for an election to increase her majority. She should therefore be able to wait until 2020

    On topic, there may well be a certain ironic mirror to all this in that Heath only got the original European Communities Act through parliament due to Labour rebels counteracting the dissidents on his own side.
    Yes rebel Labour MPs could be crucial for May
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    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:

    <
    I think you'll find Charles is number one flyer on the site!

    Yes, for me trains are business, planes are leisure.

    I love long-haul flying - stick me in Business or Premium Economy at a pinch and a flight to Singapore, Hong Kong or across the Atlantic and I'm happy.

    I've never had poor service - the likes of Singapore Airlines and Air New Zealand are very good and even British Airways aren't too bad. I hear good things about Qatar Airways but haven't had the pleasure yet.

    Turbulence - the worst I ever encountered was on a flight from Napier to Auckland due to storms over the central ranges. One hour of purgatory though we've had plenty of fun from Las Vegas trying to get over the Rockies in storms but once we cleared that, it was fine.
    ha - I'm the precisely opposite: planes for function, trains for fun.

    I don't get the attraction of business class on aircraft (or more accurately, I don't think it's worth the cost; I'd happily take an upgrade). Yes, you're away from economy passengers and yes, the facilities and service are better but there's something unbalanced about paying the same for a flight as for a decent three-week holiday. But then I view all air travel as inherently boring.
    Once you fly non economy, you can never go back.
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    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    Blue_rog said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    First started taking commercial flights in the 70s, in the DC-10 days. Became used to 'turbulence'.

    Then took a flight in a light aircraft from Miami to Sarasota. We encountered a storm system. That's when I discovered what real turbulence is. I have rarely been more frightened.

    The worst I had was flying into Tokyo when there was a local weather system present. I've never experienced a plane wobbling and swinging so much before landing. It really did feel like we would crash land that day.
    I had a wonderful flight from Austin to Tampa where the pilot was flying round huge storm cells. Watching the lightning storms was fantastic.
    Try landing on the Azores, enough wind there to make you feel really nervous, happened both times I visited.
    Azores? Pah! Try Madeira....
    Alderney can be somewhat hairy. Small plane, often lots of wind and one flies in over some nasty-looking jagged cliffs.
    Try Lukla in a Twin Otter,can be scary. Done it 4 times now,had an aborted take off from here,and another take off that turned round after getting airborne and relanded at Lukla.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on the customs union, regarding our exit from the EU?

    I'm fine with us remaining a member of it, though I know I'm in a minority with that view.
    Though you were also fine with us remaining so that doesn't say much. Being out of the EU but in the customs union seems to be the worst combination imaginable.
    52% of voters want to stay in the single market according to Comres with some controlled freedom of movement, only 26% want to leave the single market and end free movement completely
    I'd have more faith in that figure if I believed that people understood the Single Market. Even the superior denizens of PB have proffered some pretty dodgy interpretations.
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    Police say "mental health" significant factor. How do they know? Sees to be following a rather familiar pattern, just waiting to find out the man of north african appearance was known locally as Dave.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,148

    My worst flying trip, was with my mate Rob, we went to America.

    He's a nervous flyer, was loving the service in first class, he got a little drunk he decided that was a good time for him to have a discussion with me on terrorism, why I wasn't religious, and what he'd do with 72 virgins, usually within ear shot of the flight crew.

    I spent the entire flight worrying that when we landed in New York, Homeland Security would be putting me on a one way flight to Gitmo.

    Who wants 72 virgins?

    I'd want ladies who knew what they were doing.
    Seem to recall a story from schooldays; about the "Jesus and the virgins" parable, and the speaker asking “would you rather be inside with the wise vigins or outside with the foolish ones?”
    Cue muttered comments from adolescent males.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465
    On topic, unless events intervene with a very good reason, I don't think May will go short of 2020. Difficulty getting Brexit through parliament might be an 'event' that provides mandate, means and motive to go to the country early (particularly if it's the Labour / LD peers being awkward) but there aren't many such possible events and those which there are won't necessarily come about by any means. And not competing in constituencies based off 20-year old data would be helpful too.

    Sensible for all parties to contingency plan though.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,077

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    My worst flying trip, was with my mate Rob, we went to America.

    He's a nervous flyer, was loving the service in first class, he got a little drunk he decided that was a good time for him to have a discussion with me on terrorism, why I wasn't religious, and what he'd do with 72 virgins, usually within ear shot of the flight crew.

    I spent the entire flight worrying that when we landed in New York, Homeland Security would be putting me on a one way flight to Gitmo.

    Oh dear, that's not good on any flight, let alone one to the USA.

    I realised on a plane last week that next on the iPad reading list was an accident report of a fatal plane crash, figured the nervous flyer missus wouldn't fancy seeing it so skipped over after a few pages!

    Were you not supposed to be gracing the sandpit with your presence this week? What happened, too hot for you?
    Because the American trip got curtailed because of the Zika virus, we've decided to go to Dubai later on in the year, my Dad's relieved, we were only going because my Mother wanted to buy some new jewellery.
    Sensible idea, it's bloody hot here in August! Starts to get reasonable/bearable around the middle of October, major events are the Rugby 7s in November and the Abu Dhabi F1 a week later at the beginning of December if you're interested. There's also some cricket on over the winter (Pakistan home games) but will have to look up the dates.
    Oooh, The Grand Prix sounds like a splendid idea
    There's a few friends coming over already, it's the last race of the season. Maybe we should all buy @Morris_Dancer's new book and see if we can get him over here too!

    https://www.yasmarinacircuit.com for more details and tickets, looks like the cheap general admission is sold out already!
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    Mr. Eagles, if you do go the race I hope you enjoy it. If you go shirt-shopping you'll probably end up bumping into Eddie Jordan :p

    Paul Smith has released a new range of floral print shirts, I'm in heaven.

    http://www.selfridges.com/GB/en/cat/paul-smith-graphic-flower-print-cotton-shirt_433-86057480-PRPC800PV49/?previewAttribute=Red
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Masterful strategy by Trump, I'm sure it's all going o rebound on Clinton real soon now.

    twitter.com/YAppelbaum/status/760966915414261761?s=09

    If I was writing a thread for PB this weekend, it would be about 'Is Donald Trump following the Monty Brewster strategy for losing elections?'
    We are of course in the post convention phase where there is a hreat deal of unreality by I am currently guffawing at all those PB sages who said Trump was going to masterfully pivot to the centre and that every gaffe he executed was Good News for Trump.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Pounds and ounces? What is this? the stone age? I'd prefer if the government didnt waste its time with nonsense such as that.

    I think you'll find we didn't have any systems of measurement back in the stone age. The imperial and metric systems are both arbitrary, the latter simply caters for people who can't multiply by anything but 10.
    It's easier and more convenient then, why should we not cater then?
    No, we should troll stupid people for laughs by making things a little challenging and then enjoying their failure.

    See every post made on PB by Bromptonaut for details.
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    DaveDaveDaveDave Posts: 76
    An opinion poll when there is no election is not the same as one when there is one. Tories shouldn't risk it. Labour still too strong. Need them to get down to 20% to rid their scourge from society.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,077
    stodge said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sensible idea, it's bloody hot here in August! Starts to get reasonable/bearable around the middle of October, major events are the Rugby 7s in November and the Abu Dhabi F1 a week later at the beginning of December if you're interested. There's also some cricket on over the winter (Pakistan home games) but will have to look up the dates.

    And of course the horse racing at Meydan from January. One of the finest tracks in the world by all accounts .
    Indeed. Missed the World Cup in March this year but went a couple of years ago. Really weird going to the races with no bookies though - tapping on the Betfair mobile app is not quite the same!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,037
    Mr. Eagles, a £170 shirt?

    And you call yourself a Yorkshireman?

    *sighs*

    Mr. Sandpit, I'd need rather splendid sales for that to happen :p [I'm comfortable with turbulence, unlike some here, but airports are not my favourite places].

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    stodge said:

    rcs1000 said:

    <
    I think you'll find Charles is number one flyer on the site!

    Yes, for me trains are business, planes are leisure.

    I love long-haul flying - stick me in Business or Premium Economy at a pinch and a flight to Singapore, Hong Kong or across the Atlantic and I'm happy.

    I've never had poor service - the likes of Singapore Airlines and Air New Zealand are very good and even British Airways aren't too bad. I hear good things about Qatar Airways but haven't had the pleasure yet.

    Turbulence - the worst I ever encountered was on a flight from Napier to Auckland due to storms over the central ranges. One hour of purgatory though we've had plenty of fun from Las Vegas trying to get over the Rockies in storms but once we cleared that, it was fine.
    ha - I'm the precisely opposite: planes for function, trains for fun.

    I don't get the attraction of business class on aircraft (or more accurately, I don't think it's worth the cost; I'd happily take an upgrade). Yes, you're away from economy passengers and yes, the facilities and service are better but there's something unbalanced about paying the same for a flight as for a decent three-week holiday. But then I view all air travel as inherently boring.
    For sub 3hr flights, I don't think it.makes any difference. But say for trans Atlantic it is just so much better, more relaxing etc etc etc.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    .

    Mr. Eagles, what's your view on the customs union, regarding our exit from the EU?

    I'm fine with us remaining a member of it, though I know I'm in a minority with that view.
    Though you were also fine with us remaining so that doesn't say much. Being out of the EU but in the customs union seems to be the worst combination imaginable.
    I read something the other day, I can't remember where, that one of the options was for us to engage in a phased exit, so we'd Leave the EU on Day 1, but remain part/adhere to the rules of the single market and custom unions for x years, and withdraw from them both within a set time frame.
    Surely we'd have to leave the customs union immediately as well since we'd be unable to conclude our own independent trade deals without leaving.
    I'll try and dig out the article, but it was more we'd adhere to the rules of the customs union, whilst sorting out our own trade deals at the same time.

    Gist was the time frames made exiting the EU and having all the new trade deals in place for Day 1 of our exit unlikely.
    I think that's why May will seek an extension to A50 and not trigger it until next year. We need at least four years to conclude non-EU trade deals, or at least have them ready to sign on the day we leave. It's one of the reasons the EEA is attractive, it enables us to continue our relationship with the single market is it is, while also getting our non-EU deals done. If in 5-10 years we find that the EEA is unsuitable and we need a bespoke deal with the EU then we can look at that, but we will be much less reliant on EU trade by that point so any disruption in the relationship will not be economically damaging. This year we're on course for 60% of our exports going to non-EU destinations, the current trends are for 2020 to have almost 70% of our exports going to non-EU destinations. If we were to leave the EU I wouldn't be surprised if that figure rose to 75%.
    Do you have a source for those figures? That's quite a dramatic continuation of the fall in recent years.

    Though I think 4 years are too long. Realistically if there is no early election then come 2020 we need to be out or else there'll be problems with the election. You wouldn't want the exit to occur in the weeks before just in case there's a problem.

    So realistically again the deadline for exiting is in 2019, to have the job completed smoothly in time for seeking a 2020 re-election.

    A 2019 exit works with a 2017 A50 invocation and no extension necessary.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,148
    jayfdee said:

    Blue_rog said:

    MaxPB said:

    John_M said:

    Good morning all.

    First started taking commercial flights in the 70s, in the DC-10 days. Became used to 'turbulence'.

    Then took a flight in a light aircraft from Miami to Sarasota. We encountered a storm system. That's when I discovered what real turbulence is. I have rarely been more frightened.

    The worst I had was flying into Tokyo when there was a local weather system present. I've never experienced a plane wobbling and swinging so much before landing. It really did feel like we would crash land that day.
    I had a wonderful flight from Austin to Tampa where the pilot was flying round huge storm cells. Watching the lightning storms was fantastic.
    Try landing on the Azores, enough wind there to make you feel really nervous, happened both times I visited.
    Azores? Pah! Try Madeira....
    Alderney can be somewhat hairy. Small plane, often lots of wind and one flies in over some nasty-looking jagged cliffs.
    Try Lukla in a Twin Otter,can be scary. Done it 4 times now,had an aborted take off from here,and another take off that turned round after getting airborne and relanded at Lukla.
    Googled it and, yes, I quite believe you!
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Masterful strategy by Trump, I'm sure it's all going o rebound on Clinton real soon now.

    twitter.com/YAppelbaum/status/760966915414261761?s=09

    If I was writing a thread for PB this weekend, it would be about 'Is Donald Trump following the Monty Brewster strategy for losing elections?'
    We are of course in the post convention phase where there is a hreat deal of unreality by I am currently guffawing at all those PB sages who said Trump was going to masterfully pivot to the centre and that every gaffe he executed was Good News for Trump.
    The few days I was in New York, I spoke to some American friends, even the GOPers were appalled, even if you ignore the humanity angle, you do not go to war with the family of a dead soldier, even if they are Muslims.

    No wonder Republicans are publicly endorsing Hillary
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    My worst flying trip, was with my mate Rob, we went to America.

    He's a nervous flyer, was loving the service in first class, he got a little drunk he decided that was a good time for him to have a discussion with me on terrorism, why I wasn't religious, and what he'd do with 72 virgins, usually within ear shot of the flight crew.

    I spent the entire flight worrying that when we landed in New York, Homeland Security would be putting me on a one way flight to Gitmo.

    Oh dear, that's not good on any flight, let alone one to the USA.

    I realised on a plane last week that next on the iPad reading list was an accident report of a fatal plane crash, figured the nervous flyer missus wouldn't fancy seeing it so skipped over after a few pages!

    Were you not supposed to be gracing the sandpit with your presence this week? What happened, too hot for you?
    Because the American trip got curtailed because of the Zika virus, we've decided to go to Dubai later on in the year, my Dad's relieved, we were only going because my Mother wanted to buy some new jewellery.
    Sensible idea, it's bloody hot here in August! Starts to get reasonable/bearable around the middle of October, major events are the Rugby 7s in November and the Abu Dhabi F1 a week later at the beginning of December if you're interested. There's also some cricket on over the winter (Pakistan home games) but will have to look up the dates.

    Jewellery is very cheap here. Mrs Sandpit got a 1ct engagement ring for the price of a 1/2 ct ring in UK. Friends have come here specifically for that reason and saved the cost of their holiday as well as pleasing their missus.
    There's an excellent range of cheap jewellery in India too - specifically Jaipur. I bought some magnificent rings for half the UK prices - all bespoke and delivered in a few hours. IIRC much of the British retail trade sources from the area.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,751
    edited August 2016

    Mr. Eagles, a £170 shirt?

    And you call yourself a Yorkshireman?

    *sighs*

    Mr. Sandpit, I'd need rather splendid sales for that to happen :p [I'm comfortable with turbulence, unlike some here, but airports are not my favourite places].

    I'm very fashion conscious, I always endeavour to make sure I look my very best.

    £170 is a bargain to look good.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,953
    Theresa should have an election. She can secure herself a landslide and another decade in office for the Tories.

    After saying she won't have one she'll needs an excuse though.
This discussion has been closed.