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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest bef

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,278
    Lowlander said:

    What do we think? Is this supported by the West and if so, why? ISIS? Blackmailing Europe over the migrant crisis? Might seem like a cunning move but is Erdogan unpopular? What if an increasingly Islamist Turkey population turned inextricably against the west.

    The interests of France, America and Russia are aligned.

    It is hard to think this is not backed in advanced by the West and Russia.

    Although it seems the UK is out of the loop.
    What makes you say that?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    We need to know how much of the Army is backing the coup. If this isn't resolved quickly this will descend into fully fledged war.
  • MarcKleinMarcKlein Posts: 36
    counter-coup gaining upper hand: reports
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    AndyJS said:

    OUT said:

    Shooting at one of the bridges in Istanbul.

    This is the country The Economist have been calling for to join the EU.
    yep - clueless as usual
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    This could still end up as a damp squib
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,874
    This curfew isn't exactly being enforced.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    That's not really the case. Changes made to rules for director only firms. Have you used the tpr employer duties checker?

    Yep, as soon as you have two directors you have to go through the entire nonsense, with threats at every stage saying you're committing a criminal offence if you get the slightest detail of the charade wrong.
    No you don't. You can have lots of directors not who have to be auto enrolled provided they don't hav a contract of employment. Most tiny firms don't. Even if someone does provided they are taking usual modest salary and mainly dividends then won't usually breach the threshold in pay reference periods so not an eligible jobholder. In helping lots of these and it's just completing a declaration of compliance to the tpr and being aware of responsibility should a worker become an eligible jobholder. Really not that big a hassle for these husband wife businesses.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    DanSmith said:

    So Erdogan is out of Turkey?

    "The Turkish president's office will not disclose Erdogan's whereabouts to the Associated Press news agency, saying he is at a secure location."

    http://www.dw.com/en/updates-military-attempt-to-seize-power-in-turkey/a-19403712
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Lowlander said:

    What do we think? Is this supported by the West and if so, why? ISIS? Blackmailing Europe over the migrant crisis? Might seem like a cunning move but is Erdogan unpopular? What if an increasingly Islamist Turkey population turned inextricably against the west.

    The interests of France, America and Russia are aligned.

    It is hard to think this is not backed in advanced by the West and Russia.

    Although it seems the UK is out of the loop.
    It seems pretty hard to concluded who is in or out of the loop right now, and even harder to suggest with any certainty that France is in on it and we're not.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,640
    Chameleon said:

    We need to know how much of the Army is backing the coup. If this isn't resolved quickly this will descend into fully fledged war.

    Seems like pretty much all of it tbh. Only he police and Erdogan loyalists are in opposition IMO. The military seems united, they wouldn't have moved without that unity. That the senior generals have been locked away shows that.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    MaxPB said:

    Live fire on one of the bridges. Erdogan is a fool. He should have given up. People are going to die and he won't hold on.

    I have the horrible feeling that this could get very, very bloody.
    When you start shooting at civilians it will. Reports are that there have been outbreaks of firing where the military has met protestors.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    alex. said:

    This could still end up as a damp squib

    Not for whoever's on the losing side. Heads will, literally, roll.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,905
    alex. said:

    This could still end up as a damp squib

    Would the military really start gunning down people en masse in the street? They might need to, and are enough of them prepared to do that?

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,407
    AndyJS said:

    Hopefully Boris tells him to go elsewhere:

    https://twitter.com/jamessmat/status/754074444738531328

    Is that not a call for a he home sec?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,129
    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    marke09 said:

    NBC reporting that President Erdogan's asylum request has been rejected by the Germans, he is thought to be flying to London

    Tell him to f##k off.
    Allowing him asylum here would probably help resolve the situation quickly.

    As was said upthread, the coup needs to succeed or fail quickly.
    Yes, we should let him land on condition that he accepts defeat. Least bloodshed please.
    Agree. I also find it a bit embarrassing that Germany isn't letting him in - firstly because they've let everyone else in, secondly because when he was in power they were silencing comedians for him. RUDE I call it.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MaxPB said:

    Celebrations in Istanbul.

    Not in the industrial East of the country, not that western media will show that.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited July 2016

    No you don't. You can have lots of directors not who have to be auto enrolled provided they don't hav a contract of employment. Most tiny firms don't. Even if someone does provided they are taking usual modest salary and mainly dividends then won't usually breach the threshold in pay reference periods so not an eligible jobholder. In helping lots of these and it's just completing a declaration of compliance to the tpr and being aware of responsibility should a worker become an eligible jobholder. Really not that big a hassle for these husband wife businesses.

    Sure, but we're not a husband and wife business, we're a proper company where the directors are definitely also employees. Like many other companies.
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Hundreds of live feeds from streets all over Turkey: https://www.facebook.com/live

    Erdogan supporters it appears.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Apparently police are arming themselves and AKP supporters. This is looking like a civil war.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    kle4 said:

    alex. said:

    This could still end up as a damp squib

    Would the military really start gunning down people en masse in the street? They might need to, and are enough of them prepared to do that?

    The military aren't - they're shooting armed Erdogan supports trying to attack them.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    This is too early to call a success.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,905
    Suspect a lot of junior officers may be being fitted up for the noose come the morning.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Mosques are urging people onto the street, this is may turn into a Muslims v Secularists civil war.

    Only one winner in such a chaotic situation, I fear, and it isn't secularists.
    I believe that the secularist troops in Turkey will NOT be the namby-pamby bleeding-heart liberals in Germany, France and the UK. When they know it's either us or them they will make dammed sure it is them.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,640
    Military opening fire at Intelligence agencies. Looks like they are hitting Erdogan as hard as possible.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,750
    Tim_B said:

    Now that the dust has settled a bit, what was Theresa May's rationale for making BoJo foreign secretary?

    I have to think it was more than "You broke it - you fix it."

    She wrote "F Off" by his name on the list of MPs and it was all a terrible misunderstanding
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    weejonnie said:

    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Mosques are urging people onto the street, this is may turn into a Muslims v Secularists civil war.

    Only one winner in such a chaotic situation, I fear, and it isn't secularists.
    I believe that the secularist troops in Turkey will NOT be the namby-pamby bleeding-heart liberals in Germany, France and the UK. When they know it's either us or them they will make dammed sure it is them.
    The key difference to normal scenarios is that one side is a secularist army, the other an islamic group of ex-civilians.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Look, all I want to see is Erdogan's charred naked corpse in a ditch. Is that too much to ask?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,905
    MaxPB said:

    Military opening fire at Intelligence agencies. Looks like they are hitting Erdogan as hard as possible.

    Making light of things being a coping mechanism, given they didn't see the coup coming, presumably, maybe the military should let the intelligence agencies keep advising Erdogan.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,129
    IanB2 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Now that the dust has settled a bit, what was Theresa May's rationale for making BoJo foreign secretary?

    I have to think it was more than "You broke it - you fix it."

    She wrote "F Off" by his name on the list of MPs and it was all a terrible misunderstanding
    Haha - very good.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Are the Turkish military following the PLP playbook? The PLP were sure that Corbyn couldn't carry on with zero support from the MPs. The Turkish military were sure that Erdogan couldn't carry on with zero support from the army.

    Maybe both were wrong...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    surely the rumour Erdogan has fled is a deliberate attempt by the coup forces to lead his supporters to believe they have been abandoned.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    So who's winning in Turkey? Looks like a clash is inevitable.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    From the comments on here, I wonder if people realise how pivotal the next few hours will be to the future stability and safety of the West.

    If the Islamists win, the West is finished. Utterly finished.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Calls to prayer across Turkey saying: 'For gods sake, the president's sake, the state's sake, please go out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,905
    Maybe the coup forces should force the TV stations to play that clip of Erdogan's balls being stamped on by a horse over and over.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Hopefully Boris tells him to go elsewhere:

    https://twitter.com/jamessmat/status/754074444738531328

    Is that not a call for a he home sec?
    quite obviously a call for the PM
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,923
    Sky News has got a right comical ali lady on....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,640
    alex. said:

    Are the Turkish military following the PLP playbook? The PLP were sure that Corbyn couldn't carry on with zero support from the MPs. The Turkish military were sure that Erdogan couldn't carry on with zero support from the army.

    Maybe both were wrong...

    I'm not so sure. People are probably going to disperse soon and the military will still hold the key parts of the nation's infrastructure.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    John_M said:

    Sean_F said:

    marke09 said:

    NBC reporting that President Erdogan's asylum request has been rejected by the Germans, he is thought to be flying to London

    Tell him to f##k off.
    Allowing him asylum here would probably help resolve the situation quickly.

    As was said upthread, the coup needs to succeed or fail quickly.
    Yes, we should let him land on condition that he accepts defeat. Least bloodshed please.
    Get Boris on the phone to him...........

    Reality is getting beyond parody.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Lowlander said:

    From the comments on here, I wonder if people realise how pivotal the next few hours will be to the future stability and safety of the West.

    If the Islamists win, the West is finished. Utterly finished.

    The West > Turkey.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Hopefully Boris tells him to go elsewhere:

    https://twitter.com/jamessmat/status/754074444738531328

    Is that not a call for a he home sec?
    quite obviously a call for the PM
    Where is Dave?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016
    Y0kel said:

    This is too early to call a success.

    I guess it could easily turn into a west vs east civil war.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,749
    IanB2 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Now that the dust has settled a bit, what was Theresa May's rationale for making BoJo foreign secretary?

    I have to think it was more than "You broke it - you fix it."

    She wrote "F Off" by his name on the list of MPs and it was all a terrible misunderstanding
    :)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    MikeK said:

    So who's winning in Turkey? Looks like a clash is inevitable.

    The grim reaper is winning.

    Everyone else is losing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,905
    The poor poor newspaper editors these days.

    Has Dan Hodges explained how this is bad news for Corbyn yet?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,640
    What we may also see is the freeing of political dissidents and those who have been court martialed.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Lowlander said:

    From the comments on here, I wonder if people realise how pivotal the next few hours will be to the future stability and safety of the West.

    If the Islamists win, the West is finished. Utterly finished.

    I suspect that you're overriding the downside slightly. While I agree that the next 12 hours are extremely crucial, the result can be anywhere from a co-operative administration installed that will tackle the migrant crisis & ISIS to a hostile state on the door-step. If I was a western leader I'd be telling all assets to assist the coup however they can.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Sky News has got a right comical ali lady on....

    LOL. She is claiming it is a tiny tiny number of soldiers yet is verging on tears.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,905
    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Hopefully Boris tells him to go elsewhere:

    https://twitter.com/jamessmat/status/754074444738531328

    Is that not a call for a he home sec?
    quite obviously a call for the PM
    Where is Dave?
    Early night's sleep.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited July 2016
    Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist. Lets hope the interview finishes before she starts sobbing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,640
    Chameleon said:

    Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist.

    She's an AKP member.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    Lowlander said:

    From the comments on here, I wonder if people realise how pivotal the next few hours will be to the future stability and safety of the West.

    If the Islamists win, the West is finished. Utterly finished.

    The West > Turkey.
    The West has no John Sobieski. Islam is blocked from Europe by Turkey and has been for over 100 years.

    That is ending if Erdogan wins. Hardcore, fundamentalist Islam will be 200 miles from the gates of Vienna. With an uncontrollable border letting anyone they want to let in.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    No you don't. You can have lots of directors not who have to be auto enrolled provided they don't hav a contract of employment. Most tiny firms don't. Even if someone does provided they are taking usual modest salary and mainly dividends then won't usually breach the threshold in pay reference periods so not an eligible jobholder. In helping lots of these and it's just completing a declaration of compliance to the tpr and being aware of responsibility should a worker become an eligible jobholder. Really not that big a hassle for these husband wife businesses.

    Sure, but we're not a husband and wife business, we're a proper company where the directors are definitely also employees. Like many other companies.
    Tiny companies to me are that size. If you are talking 5 to 10 staff then you should be caught by AE if you don't have a scheme for genuine employee directors s
    And in fact why would you not just have a qwps already with all the tax advantages there are incl sal exchange for the company???
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    MaxPB said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist.

    She's an AKP member.
    Shouldn't somebody be nailing her to a tree as well?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    MaxPB said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist.

    She's an AKP member.
    Ahh, it would be quite nice if they reminded us of that a tad more frequently than they are.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016
    Delusional: some Erdogan supporters calling on western leaders to support him.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    "The chief of staff of the military has not spoken yet and traditionally with Turkish coups you would expect the head of the military to be on TV taking command.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/jul/15/turkey-coup-attempt-military-gunfire-ankara

    23.29
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Chameleon said:

    weejonnie said:

    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Mosques are urging people onto the street, this is may turn into a Muslims v Secularists civil war.

    Only one winner in such a chaotic situation, I fear, and it isn't secularists.
    I believe that the secularist troops in Turkey will NOT be the namby-pamby bleeding-heart liberals in Germany, France and the UK. When they know it's either us or them they will make dammed sure it is them.
    The key difference to normal scenarios is that one side is a secularist army, the other an islamic group of ex-civilians.
    People who want to die for their beliefs should be given every assistance.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    AndyJS said:

    Y0kel said:

    This is too early to call a success.

    I guess it could easily turn into a west vs east civil war.
    I could see a European Turkey state being formed...
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    "The chief of staff of the military has not spoken yet and traditionally with Turkish coups you would expect the head of the military to be on TV taking command.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/jul/15/turkey-coup-attempt-military-gunfire-ankara

    23.29

    That's because he's been deposed. This hasn't been led by the generals.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    "The chief of staff of the military has not spoken yet and traditionally with Turkish coups you would expect the head of the military to be on TV taking command.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/jul/15/turkey-coup-attempt-military-gunfire-ankara

    23.29

    Taking command of the coup? or government forces?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    And the Gulen movement get the finger pointed at them for this coup.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,078

    That's not really the case. Changes made to rules for director only firms. Have you used the tpr employer duties checker?

    Yep, as soon as you have two directors you have to go through the entire nonsense, with threats at every stage saying you're committing a criminal offence if you get the slightest detail of the charade wrong.
    Not been my experience at all. My company has two directors and all I had to do was sign a piece of paper to that effect and I am opted out. All sorted for me by my accountant in minutes.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Hopefully Boris tells him to go elsewhere:

    https://twitter.com/jamessmat/status/754074444738531328

    Is that not a call for a he home sec?
    quite obviously a call for the PM
    Where is Dave?
    His diary is remarkably free.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    The poor poor newspaper editors these days.

    Has Dan Hodges explained how this is bad news for Corbyn yet?

    No, just why it is bad news for Ed Miliband.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    One important thing to note is that the Turkish military is made up largely of conscripts.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,230
    AndyJS said:

    Y0kel said:

    This is too early to call a success.

    I guess it could easily turn into a west vs east civil war.
    Assuming the army is all behind the coup, they would surely have no difficulty securing Istanbul and the Mediterranean cities. As you say, the East may still fight them.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,129
    Lowlander said:

    From the comments on here, I wonder if people realise how pivotal the next few hours will be to the future stability and safety of the West.

    If the Islamists win, the West is finished. Utterly finished.

    Don't be silly. If the military wins they are likely to revive the 'no problems with neighbours' policy and do very little. If Erdogan wins, he's similarly likely not to emerge from his hutch very often for a while. Neither scenario is devastating for 'The West'. But it won't be nice for the Turkish people, that's for sure.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,640
    I think the military need to talk to the police and ensure their safety and status so they drop support for Erdogan. If they can get the police on side in Ankara it's done.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Breaking - Owen Smith’s 2nd attempt at a leadership launch postponed....
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    MaxPB said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist.

    She's an AKP member.
    Should the D-notices not be issued already?

    As far as I can tell from the coverage on Sky and the BBC, they are promoting the Erdogan message of getting people on the streets and claiming the coup may fail.

    Isn't this what D-notices are meant for?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited July 2016

    Tiny companies to me are that size. If you are talking 5 to 10 staff then you should be caught by AE if you don't have a scheme for genuine employee directors s
    And in fact why would you not just have a qwps already with all the tax advantages there are incl sal exchange for the company???

    Of course, we have a small self-administered scheme, which we're perfectly happy with, and into which we pay far more than the auto-enrolment limits. But like most such schemes it's not compliant with the auto-enrolment rules.

    Anyway - my point to Baroness Altman was a simple one. Why on earth did we have to go through the charade, knowing that it was a charade? Who was the charade supposed to protect? This is supposed to be a government dedicated to sweeping away nonsensical red-tape, and here was a completely unambiguous piece of nonsensical red-tape all ready to be cut out.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,278
    Lowlander said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist.

    She's an AKP member.
    Should the D-notices not be issued already?

    As far as I can tell from the coverage on Sky and the BBC, they are promoting the Erdogan message of getting people on the streets and claiming the coup may fail.

    Isn't this what D-notices are meant for?
    How many in Turkey are watching Sky?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,230

    "The chief of staff of the military has not spoken yet and traditionally with Turkish coups you would expect the head of the military to be on TV taking command.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/jul/15/turkey-coup-attempt-military-gunfire-ankara

    23.29

    I believe the Chief of Staff has been arrested.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,923
    edited July 2016
    I got the feeling Sky News got caught out there, as they introduced the lady first as a journalist....then I think somebody realised oh f##k she is a member of the AKP and just parroting the propaganda.

    Tim Marshall appears to have gone from their coverage which is a shame.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,640
    Lowlander said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist.

    She's an AKP member.
    Should the D-notices not be issued already?

    As far as I can tell from the coverage on Sky and the BBC, they are promoting the Erdogan message of getting people on the streets and claiming the coup may fail.

    Isn't this what D-notices are meant for?
    Given that Erdogan has been giving interviews on Turkish TV I'm not sure that it matters what happens here or anywhere else outside of Europe.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    "The chief of staff of the military has not spoken yet and traditionally with Turkish coups you would expect the head of the military to be on TV taking command.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/jul/15/turkey-coup-attempt-military-gunfire-ankara

    23.29

    The Chief of Staff is an Erdogan supporter (as are most of the senior command). That they have been neutralised is a good sign. They are more important than Erdogan.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    That's not really the case. Changes made to rules for director only firms. Have you used the tpr employer duties checker?

    Yep, as soon as you have two directors you have to go through the entire nonsense, with threats at every stage saying you're committing a criminal offence if you get the slightest detail of the charade wrong.
    Not been my experience at all. My company has two directors and all I had to do was sign a piece of paper to that effect and I am opted out. All sorted for me by my accountant in minutes.
    Sorry, I meant two employee-directors.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,278

    I got the feeling Sky News got caught out there, as they introduced the lady first as a journalist....then I think somebody realised oh f##k she is a member of the AKP and just parrotting the propaganda.

    She was introduced as a member of AKP.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    That's not really the case. Changes made to rules for director only firms. Have you used the tpr employer duties checker?

    Yep, as soon as you have two directors you have to go through the entire nonsense, with threats at every stage saying you're committing a criminal offence if you get the slightest detail of the charade wrong.
    Not been my experience at all. My company has two directors and all I had to do was sign a piece of paper to that effect and I am opted out. All sorted for me by my accountant in minutes.
    Exactly but need to be aware of you do become classed as having a worker on your books.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Al Jazeera wins hands down. BBC reporting events of two hours ago. AJ interviewing ex-PM live.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited July 2016
    There's so much spinning going on from Erdogan's people, it's amazing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,749

    Lowlander said:

    From the comments on here, I wonder if people realise how pivotal the next few hours will be to the future stability and safety of the West.

    If the Islamists win, the West is finished. Utterly finished.

    Don't be silly. If the military wins they are likely to revive the 'no problems with neighbours' policy and do very little. If Erdogan wins, he's similarly likely not to emerge from his hutch very often for a while. Neither scenario is devastating for 'The West'. But it won't be nice for the Turkish people, that's for sure.
    Thank you
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Lowlander said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist.

    She's an AKP member.
    Should the D-notices not be issued already?

    As far as I can tell from the coverage on Sky and the BBC, they are promoting the Erdogan message of getting people on the streets and claiming the coup may fail.

    Isn't this what D-notices are meant for?
    Issuing a d-notice is fairly meaningless in the 21st century with the internet, it is totally meaningless when you're talking British media and a Turkish coup. If Sky/BBC stop reporting coverage what will stop CNN and others?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,923
    edited July 2016
    RobD said:

    I got the feeling Sky News got caught out there, as they introduced the lady first as a journalist....then I think somebody realised oh f##k she is a member of the AKP and just parrotting the propaganda.

    She was introduced as a member of AKP.
    Did they. I only heard journalist when the interview started...then about half way through they added to the caption AKP member....but I am multi-tasking so I could be wrong.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,967
    Wonder if there are any Pokemon near the Bosphorous bridge.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Great news. Turkish people crushes Golan. Golan is an Islamist and these coup plotters were supporting him.

    All political parties have come out against the coup.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Main Kurdish party has come out against coup. trying to curry favour if Erdogan wins?
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    RobD said:

    Lowlander said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist.

    She's an AKP member.
    Should the D-notices not be issued already?

    As far as I can tell from the coverage on Sky and the BBC, they are promoting the Erdogan message of getting people on the streets and claiming the coup may fail.

    Isn't this what D-notices are meant for?
    How many in Turkey are watching Sky?
    For example, Fox News are taking their feed from Sky. The UK might be a tiny backwater in political terms but its news services are still important. Issue the D-notices and make sure the coup is properly backed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,967
    Foreign powers ostensibly not taking sides.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,278

    RobD said:

    I got the feeling Sky News got caught out there, as they introduced the lady first as a journalist....then I think somebody realised oh f##k she is a member of the AKP and just parrotting the propaganda.

    She was introduced as a member of AKP.
    Did they. I only heard journalist...then about half way through they added to the caption AKP....but I am multi-tasking so I could have been wrong.
    Yeah, it was explicitly mentioned she was part of Erdogan's party.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "ANADOLU AGENCY (ENG) ‏@anadoluagency 2m2 minutes ago
    + Gen. Dundar: 'Required measures taken with other troops that did not join but remain in command chain'

    ANADOLU AGENCY (ENG) ‏@anadoluagency 3m3 minutes ago
    Gen. Dundar: 'Coup leaders small group in first army command; no need to worry' +"

    https://twitter.com/anadoluagency
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Lowlander said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chameleon said:

    Sky news giving a lot of airtime to a blatant Erdogan apologist.

    She's an AKP member.
    Should the D-notices not be issued already?

    As far as I can tell from the coverage on Sky and the BBC, they are promoting the Erdogan message of getting people on the streets and claiming the coup may fail.

    Isn't this what D-notices are meant for?
    Issuing a d-notice is fairly meaningless in the 21st century with the internet, it is totally meaningless when you're talking British media and a Turkish coup. If Sky/BBC stop reporting coverage what will stop CNN and others?
    Why the hell would the Government be issuing D-notices to prevent coverage of a coup in a foreign country?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    Foreign powers ostensibly not taking sides.

    Plenty of time for that later.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    alex. said:

    "The chief of staff of the military has not spoken yet and traditionally with Turkish coups you would expect the head of the military to be on TV taking command.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/jul/15/turkey-coup-attempt-military-gunfire-ankara

    23.29

    That's because he's been deposed. This hasn't been led by the generals.
    nice one Richard
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    Lowlander said:

    What do we think? Is this supported by the West and if so, why? ISIS? Blackmailing Europe over the migrant crisis? Might seem like a cunning move but is Erdogan unpopular? What if an increasingly Islamist Turkey population turned inextricably against the west.

    The interests of France, America and Russia are aligned.

    It is hard to think this is not backed in advanced by the West and Russia.

    Although it seems the UK is out of the loop.
    If the Americans are involved why isn't there a colour?
This discussion has been closed.