Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reflecting on the longest w

1567810

Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tyson said:

    On the Labour Party travails Eagle would be bonkers to make a bid. The MP's need to keep their ground until McDonnell offers a different candidate to represent the left.....ie himself which in turn must be guaranteed by the MP's.

    If McDonnell wins, he has the capacity of being a lefty Wilson; an operator and player.

    Hillary needs to announce David Miliband will be in her team.
    I'm sorry Pulps- but what has that got to do with the price of fish?

    Well I'd like to reback him at some point in the next few months to get back the cash I'm laying him with :p
    His odds are 7.8 at the moment :eek
    How on Earth is someone who's not even an MP, 7.8 to be next leader? If Corbyn survives the weekend then it might be reasonable, but could still be 2020 before it happens - assuming the rules don't get changed in the meantime to keep the hardcore Left in charge.

    Oh, and on the big issue of the day, does anyone think David Miliband is anything but a hardcore EU fan?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone else reckon McDonnell could be slyly gathering signatures ?

    "If you want to continue the true Labour project..."

    The only Labourite that has enough low cunning and ruthlessness to knife Jezza maybe,...

    He's going to need a few Labour MPs to leave the party to get the required percentage.
    Corbyn could remove the whip from a few Labour MPs and bring that required number of signatures down a bit
    How about:

    Challenge from AN Other (Smith?) gets the 50 sigs.
    Then Corbyn agrees to go if McDonnell also gets 50 sigs.

    Would the PLP go for that? Or would they hold out (!) for someone like Clive Lewis?
    At this stage they might accept McDonnell. They would probably prefer Lewis. Ideally neither.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,727

    The Telegraph: The warnings of the Holocaust have never been more relevant in Britain. http://google.com/newsstand/s/CBIw96uS6CU

    "Last Sunday, a Polish father and son lay bloodied on the floor after being attacked and told to “go back home” in Upton Park, East London"

    Oh dear, not a good start for Karen Pollock of the Holocaust Educational Trust, the Police have investigated this case and dismissed it as a drunken assault, even family members of the father and son have dismissed any conection with Britex as it was between two polish men and a polish gypsy.

    Britex? I'm doubly sure it was nothing to do with the urinal manufacturer!

    http://www.britex.com.au
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Pro-JC Lab source: "Where Eagles Daren't...that's the movie title. Even she's not sure if she should run. Shes's a second rung Brownite"

    The Labour Party is completely destroyed. They should shut up shop.

    They are a hostage to the £3 and some of them seem to have Stockholm Syndrome.

    Somebody needs to grow a set.
    Once again for the hard of hearing: THERE IS NO MECHANISM UNDER THE RULES FOR REMOVING CORBYN

    The only way is to crank up the pressure until eventually he resigns. Today would have been that day (perhaps) with his disgusting Israel comments but the Tory leadership election has taken all the oxygen from the news cycle.

    Until someone can get in there and change the rules so this doesn't happen again, the PLP has no choice but to try to smoke him out.
    What about Burnham ?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Brom said:

    I'll vote for anyone that refuses to give Osborne and Soubry cabinet positions.

    I'm optimistic Soubry has fucked her career by being so close to Mr Cameron. Not sure anyone would touch her now.
    She's graceless, rude, vulgar and gobby. She makes Alan B'Stard look appealing.
    If you don't like her she must be good.
    I haven't backed the losing side in a couple of decades.
    It helps when you switch sides every few minutes.

    Arf!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,092

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.
    The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.
    Who remembers "Robot Wars"?

    BREXITEERS, STAND BY....

    3...

    2...

    1...

    NEGOTIATE!
    Robot Wars is actually coming back to TV
    http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/bbc-unveils-house-bots-robot-wars-reboot/
    Wow! Awesome!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,470
    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Understand Corbyn on edge of resigning.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:



    Maybe Boris should defect to Labour and challenge for that leadership instead.

    Perhaps he could run for President in 2020 as the candidate for whichever party loses in November, after all he was born in the US.
    He'd have to move back and reside there for fourteen years (I think) to qualify. Boris 2032 anyone?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sky Eagle isn't challenging, talks until maybe Monday with Owen Smith...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,228
    tyson said:

    JohnO said:

    Oh Anna is madder than that box of frogs (sic), loopily barking and all that, but still incomparably preferable to the Priti Patels of the party.


    Agreed on Anna vs Pritti.

    On the Gove is a copper bottomed shit.....I know someone whose very good friend of one of the Whitehall Manderins (one of those Oxford things...everyone knows someone)....they (he or she) said that out of all the ministers of state they worked for, Gove was the most horrible. The nicest....Alistair Darling.
    According to my source, Brown would call Darling into Number 10, tell him exactly what to do in a most agitated manner. Darling would deflect in the politest possible way and leave Brown with the impression that he agreed with him. He'd then wander back to Number 11 and pretend the conversation had never happened.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone else reckon McDonnell could be slyly gathering signatures ?

    "If you want to continue the true Labour project..."

    The only Labourite that has enough low cunning and ruthlessness to knife Jezza maybe,...

    He's going to need a few Labour MPs to leave the party to get the required percentage.
    Corbyn could remove the whip from a few Labour MPs and bring that required number of signatures down a bit
    How about:

    Challenge from AN Other (Smith?) gets the 50 sigs.
    Then Corbyn agrees to go if McDonnell also gets 50 sigs.

    Would the PLP go for that? Or would they hold out (!) for someone like Clive Lewis?
    They should

    *cough*

    +7.7 Nandy
    +3.2 Watson
    -8.2 D Miliband
    +0.2 Benn
    +10.2 McDonnell
    -1.2 Jarvis
    +10.1 Smith
    -2.9 Eagle
    +2.4 Other
    +5.7 Lewis
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited June 2016
    @DPJHodges: Understand Corbyn on edge of resigning.

    Apparently Charlie Falconer was seen heading for his office...
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.
    The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.
    Who remembers "Robot Wars"?

    BREXITEERS, STAND BY....

    3...

    2...

    1...

    NEGOTIATE!
    Robot Wars is actually coming back to TV
    http://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/bbc-unveils-house-bots-robot-wars-reboot/
    Wow! Awesome!
    Think its on the Sunday after next replacing Top Gear...
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,102
    john_zims said:

    @Floater

    'Or "Labour are fecking useless'

    Eagle needs to shit or get off the pot.


    No...Job is right. They just need to wait.

    Apparently, poor Jezza is hunkered in his room. Dianne Abbott is sat outside not letting anyone through.

    Eventually his friends are going to say enough is enough to him....and try and seek some kind of deal....ie ensuring one of their kind gets on the leadership ticket.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tyson said:

    On the Labour Party travails Eagle would be bonkers to make a bid. The MP's need to keep their ground until McDonnell offers a different candidate to represent the left.....ie himself which in turn must be guaranteed by the MP's.

    If McDonnell wins, he has the capacity of being a lefty Wilson; an operator and player.

    Hillary needs to announce David Miliband will be in her team.
    I'm sorry Pulps- but what has that got to do with the price of fish?

    Well I'd like to reback him at some point in the next few months to get back the cash I'm laying him with :p
    His odds are 7.8 at the moment :eek
    How on Earth is someone who's not even an MP, 7.8 to be next leader? If Corbyn survives the weekend then it might be reasonable, but could still be 2020 before it happens - assuming the rules don't get changed in the meantime to keep the hardcore Left in charge.

    Oh, and on the big issue of the day, does anyone think David Miliband is anything but a hardcore EU fan?
    If Corbyn DOES survive, then David Miliband is an outside shot. If he DOES not survive, he is a nobody.

    Must be ex-Rubio backers on this one.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Understand Corbyn on edge of resigning.

    Push push push...
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Understand Corbyn on edge of resigning.

    Nearly there, one more heave.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,727

    Charles said:

    You're assuming that Cameron did a good job on the negotiation.

    As previously posted my intelligence was that he didn't put the effort in..

    My intelligence - from someone actually on the negotiating team - was the exact opposite.

    It's time to grow up abut this. The limitations of the negotiation were due to the political realities. Those haven't changed. Obviously the deal we will end up will now be different, since we're leaving the EU, but the terms certainly won't be better. How could they possibly be?
    Yeah, like someone on the negotiating team is going to admit they monumentally fucked up...!
    It was quite early on in the process. But dream on.
    To be fair, when Cameron burst into the bazaar saying he desperately needed a carpet and this is how much he had to spend, they were never going to get anything other than a moth-eaten rug from out the back....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,517

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone else reckon McDonnell could be slyly gathering signatures ?

    "If you want to continue the true Labour project..."

    The only Labourite that has enough low cunning and ruthlessness to knife Jezza maybe,...

    He's going to need a few Labour MPs to leave the party to get the required percentage.
    Corbyn could remove the whip from a few Labour MPs and bring that required number of signatures down a bit
    How about:

    Challenge from AN Other (Smith?) gets the 50 sigs.
    Then Corbyn agrees to go if McDonnell also gets 50 sigs.

    Would the PLP go for that? Or would they hold out (!) for someone like Clive Lewis?
    That was the proposal yesterday mooted by Paul Waugh
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    TGOHF said:

    Jobabob said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Pro-JC Lab source: "Where Eagles Daren't...that's the movie title. Even she's not sure if she should run. Shes's a second rung Brownite"

    The Labour Party is completely destroyed. They should shut up shop.

    They are a hostage to the £3 and some of them seem to have Stockholm Syndrome.

    Somebody needs to grow a set.
    Once again for the hard of hearing: THERE IS NO MECHANISM UNDER THE RULES FOR REMOVING CORBYN

    The only way is to crank up the pressure until eventually he resigns. Today would have been that day (perhaps) with his disgusting Israel comments but the Tory leadership election has taken all the oxygen from the news cycle.

    Until someone can get in there and change the rules so this doesn't happen again, the PLP has no choice but to try to smoke him out.
    What about Burnham ?
    How can he do it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sky Eagle isn't challenging, talks until maybe Monday with Owen Smith...

    Abort on the launchpad !
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    DanSmith said:

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Understand Corbyn on edge of resigning.

    Nearly there, one more heave.
    I;'m sure Hodges tweeting that will bring him back from the edge.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @KevinMFeeney: It has come to this. The last people in the bunker are McDonnell, Abbott, Milne... and Andy Burnham.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Hearing Charlie Falconer on the brink of resigning.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    DanSmith said:

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    Understand Corbyn on edge of resigning.

    Nearly there, one more heave.
    I;'m sure Hodges tweeting that will bring him back from the edge.
    If Hodges says anything the opposite usually happens
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440
    You never know whether it is Hodges wishful thinking or actual facts though.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,228
    Bobby Charlton was asked how he thought the England team of '66 would have fared against Iceland. " I think we'd have won 1-0 " he replied. "Only 1-0?" Said the reporter. "Yes," said Bobby. "Most of us are in our 70's now!"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,605
    So if May is saying Brexit means Brexit, will her majority hold? If the next few months sees a split in Labour and some Tory defections to the Lib Dems, she may need to rely on the Cobynites to govern.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,507
    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sky Eagle isn't challenging, talks until maybe Monday with Owen Smith...

    Abort on the launchpad !
    At this rate, Dan Jarvis will consider it is the right time to stand.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,067
    Jobabob said:

    Hearing Charlie Falconer on the brink of resigning.

    Rubbish....
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Labour Press Office have apparently called a mutiny and we now not attend Corbyn events. Push push push...
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    Hearing Charlie Falconer on the brink of resigning.

    Rubbish....
    :0
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,727
    Labour: just point and laugh. There is nothing else to do.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Pulpstar said:

    You never know whether it is Hodges wishful thinking or actual facts though.

    I very much doubt his *contacts* include many Corbynites. He's totally lost his head over the last couple of months.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    George EatonVerified account
    @georgeeaton
    I'm told 4 shadow cabinet members (Clive Lewis, Cat Smith, Rachel Maskell, Andy McDonald) want Corbyn to go and have been trying to see him.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    So if May is saying Brexit means Brexit, will her majority hold? If the next few months sees a split in Labour and some Tory defections to the Lib Dems, she may need to rely on the Cobynites to govern.

    I mooted similar earlier although you have gone further. Also remember that the far-left wing of the party are not 100% eurosceptic, there are a few europhiles in there so she might not command even that whole voting bloc.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    Chloe Smith having real trouble over Crabb on gay marriage re Sky

    What's this stuff about him once supporting *curing gays* ? That sounds absurd, but we're off the nonsense scale now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440

    So if May is saying Brexit means Brexit, will her majority hold? If the next few months sees a split in Labour and some Tory defections to the Lib Dems, she may need to rely on the Cobynites to govern.

    May makes holding Hallam alot trickier than say a Leadsome or Fox I reckon. Not sure about any defections. Soubry probably stands down next GE if its one of the two true leavers.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Charles said:

    You're assuming that Cameron did a good job on the negotiation.

    As previously posted my intelligence was that he didn't put the effort in..

    My intelligence - from someone actually on the negotiating team - was the exact opposite.

    It's time to grow up abut this. The limitations of the negotiation were due to the political realities. Those haven't changed. Obviously the deal we will end up will now be different, since we're leaving the EU, but the terms certainly won't be better. How could they possibly be?
    Is it not worse that he did put the effort in then get virtually nothing and certainly not enough from his efforts ?

    I don't buy the Charles line that if we had spent six months negotiating we would have got what we wanted. Too glib an explanation.

    Those who can do, those who can't post on the internet about how much better they would have been..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sky Eagle isn't challenging, talks until maybe Monday with Owen Smith...

    Abort on the launchpad !
    At this rate, Dan Jarvis will consider it is the right time to stand.
    I've actually covered up on him a fair bit. Not now but if and when Corbyn fails he could be a runner.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,092
    rcs1000 said:

    Bobby Charlton was asked how he thought the England team of '66 would have fared against Iceland. " I think we'd have won 1-0 " he replied. "Only 1-0?" Said the reporter. "Yes," said Bobby. "Most of us are in our 70's now!"

    :lol:
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Chloe Smith having real trouble over Crabb on gay marriage re Sky

    What's this stuff about him once supporting *curing gays* ? That sounds absurd, but we're off the nonsense scale now.

    He supports curing gays in the same way Sadiq Khan supports IS. Pathetic stuff from the left.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    rcs1000 said:

    Bobby Charlton was asked how he thought the England team of '66 would have fared against Iceland. " I think we'd have won 1-0 " he replied. "Only 1-0?" Said the reporter. "Yes," said Bobby. "Most of us are in our 70's now!"

    :lol:
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Scott_P said:

    @KevinMFeeney: It has come to this. The last people in the bunker are McDonnell, Abbott, Milne... and Andy Burnham.

    how long before someone converts downfall into corbyn situation
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    PlatoSaid said:

    Chloe Smith having real trouble over Crabb on gay marriage re Sky

    What's this stuff about him once supporting *curing gays* ? That sounds absurd, but we're off the nonsense scale now.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/stephen-crabb-new-dwp-secretary-criticised-for-links-to-gay-cure-group-a6941281.html

    Clearly some link, obviously views will differ on how damaging that link is.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    JonathanD said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    Charles said:

    You're assuming that Cameron did a good job on the negotiation.

    As previously posted my intelligence was that he didn't put the effort in..

    My intelligence - from someone actually on the negotiating team - was the exact opposite.

    It's time to grow up abut this. The limitations of the negotiation were due to the political realities. Those haven't changed. Obviously the deal we will end up will now be different, since we're leaving the EU, but the terms certainly won't be better. How could they possibly be?
    Is it not worse that he did put the effort in then get virtually nothing and certainly not enough from his efforts ?

    I don't buy the Charles line that if we had spent six months negotiating we would have got what we wanted. Too glib an explanation.

    Those who can do, those who can't post on the internet about how much better they would have been..
    :lol:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone else reckon McDonnell could be slyly gathering signatures ?

    "If you want to continue the true Labour project..."

    The only Labourite that has enough low cunning and ruthlessness to knife Jezza maybe,...

    He's going to need a few Labour MPs to leave the party to get the required percentage.
    Corbyn could remove the whip from a few Labour MPs and bring that required number of signatures down a bit
    LOL, that's one way of doing it!
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,102
    Jobabob said:

    Labour Press Office have apparently called a mutiny and we now not attend Corbyn events. Push push push...

    Job- where is your source for this?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Pulpstar said:

    So if May is saying Brexit means Brexit, will her majority hold? If the next few months sees a split in Labour and some Tory defections to the Lib Dems, she may need to rely on the Cobynites to govern.

    May makes holding Hallam alot trickier than say a Leadsome or Fox I reckon. Not sure about any defections. Soubry probably stands down next GE if its one of the two true leavers.
    Could Soubry defect to Labour if it appoints a centrist europhile leader? Broxtowe very winnable under a Labour ticket. Others like that?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    What a day. The revolution continues.........
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    DanSmith said:

    George EatonVerified account
    @georgeeaton
    I'm told 4 shadow cabinet members (Clive Lewis, Cat Smith, Rachel Maskell, Andy McDonald) want Corbyn to go and have been trying to see him.


    If that is the case then he's toast. Lewis may have decided it is time put party before personal allegiance. Interesting.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    So if May is saying Brexit means Brexit, will her majority hold? If the next few months sees a split in Labour and some Tory defections to the Lib Dems, she may need to rely on the Cobynites to govern.

    You assuming that UK politics is still Leave vs Remain. It's a mistake lots of people are making, to be sure. But we're Out. Remain is ancient history now.

    As for defections, I'd have thought Labour -> Tory was the most likely. There are still a few Labour MPs who have a passing interest in government.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,727

    PlatoSaid said:

    Chloe Smith having real trouble over Crabb on gay marriage re Sky

    What's this stuff about him once supporting *curing gays* ? That sounds absurd, but we're off the nonsense scale now.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/stephen-crabb-new-dwp-secretary-criticised-for-links-to-gay-cure-group-a6941281.html

    Clearly some link, obviously views will differ on how damaging that link is.
    Alastair Meek had some very odd bedfellows in Remain.....

    (well, someone had to...)
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,102
    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So if May is saying Brexit means Brexit, will her majority hold? If the next few months sees a split in Labour and some Tory defections to the Lib Dems, she may need to rely on the Cobynites to govern.

    May makes holding Hallam alot trickier than say a Leadsome or Fox I reckon. Not sure about any defections. Soubry probably stands down next GE if its one of the two true leavers.
    Could Soubry defect to Labour if it appoints a centrist europhile leader? Broxtowe very winnable under a Labour ticket. Others like that?
    I thought she could be a defector to a centrist Labour leader, as could many more if Gove gets in .
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited June 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sky Eagle isn't challenging, talks until maybe Monday with Owen Smith...

    Abort on the launchpad !
    C'mon Yvette !! Or, is Ed coming back via Batley ?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    PlatoSaid said:

    Chloe Smith having real trouble over Crabb on gay marriage re Sky

    What's this stuff about him once supporting *curing gays* ? That sounds absurd, but we're off the nonsense scale now.

    He had links to a group called CARE, a Christian organisation that apparently believes that homosexuality is an illness susceptible to cure.

    I'm afraid his God bothering disqualifies him from further consideration. We have had enough messianic figures in British politics.
  • Is he going to be right once?

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    Understand Corbyn on edge of resigning.
    8m

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,470
    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So if May is saying Brexit means Brexit, will her majority hold? If the next few months sees a split in Labour and some Tory defections to the Lib Dems, she may need to rely on the Cobynites to govern.

    May makes holding Hallam alot trickier than say a Leadsome or Fox I reckon. Not sure about any defections. Soubry probably stands down next GE if its one of the two true leavers.
    Could Soubry defect to Labour if it appoints a centrist europhile leader? Broxtowe very winnable under a Labour ticket. Others like that?
    Sourby wont be defecting. She'll be a Cabinet minister by end of September.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    kjohnw said:

    Scott_P said:

    @KevinMFeeney: It has come to this. The last people in the bunker are McDonnell, Abbott, Milne... and Andy Burnham.

    how long before someone converts downfall into corbyn situation
    They all ready have but will have to update it!
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Labour: just point and laugh. There is nothing else to do.


    Fine and I can see why you say that, but what would your strategy be for removing Corbyn? I'm all ears (genuinely – the PLP read this blog and will be keen to hear any good ideas too!!!)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sky Eagle isn't challenging, talks until maybe Monday with Owen Smith...

    Ha ha ha. Are they not watching what the blue team are doing?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440
    They're desperate to get Corbyn out before Chilcot lol
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,102
    Jobabob said:

    DanSmith said:

    George EatonVerified account
    @georgeeaton
    I'm told 4 shadow cabinet members (Clive Lewis, Cat Smith, Rachel Maskell, Andy McDonald) want Corbyn to go and have been trying to see him.


    If that is the case then he's toast. Lewis may have decided it is time put party before personal allegiance. Interesting.
    That comment over Israel today...that could have been the tipping point you know.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So if May is saying Brexit means Brexit, will her majority hold? If the next few months sees a split in Labour and some Tory defections to the Lib Dems, she may need to rely on the Cobynites to govern.

    May makes holding Hallam alot trickier than say a Leadsome or Fox I reckon. Not sure about any defections. Soubry probably stands down next GE if its one of the two true leavers.
    Could Soubry defect to Labour if it appoints a centrist europhile leader? Broxtowe very winnable under a Labour ticket. Others like that?
    Sourby wont be defecting. She'll be a Cabinet minister by end of September.
    Minister for Europe hopefully! :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,470
    edited June 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sky Eagle isn't challenging, talks until maybe Monday with Owen Smith...

    Abort on the launchpad !
    At this rate, Dan Jarvis will consider it is the right time to stand.
    I've actually covered up on him a fair bit. Not now but if and when Corbyn fails he could be a runner.
    If more than one person runs, the PLP having failed to agree on a single get-rid-of-Corbyn candidate then Jarvis will surely run.

    Any news on Batley and Spen?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So if May is saying Brexit means Brexit, will her majority hold? If the next few months sees a split in Labour and some Tory defections to the Lib Dems, she may need to rely on the Cobynites to govern.

    May makes holding Hallam alot trickier than say a Leadsome or Fox I reckon. Not sure about any defections. Soubry probably stands down next GE if its one of the two true leavers.
    Could Soubry defect to Labour if it appoints a centrist europhile leader? Broxtowe very winnable under a Labour ticket. Others like that?
    How many actual europhiles are in the Tory party, of the Soubry/Ken Clarke variety? Is it a significant enough block to make that a reality? I think if May gets PM the resulting Brexit EEA fudge (Fudgexit? Brexifudge?) should hold them together. If it's an out and out leaver then it could be a possibility?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    John_M said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Chloe Smith having real trouble over Crabb on gay marriage re Sky

    What's this stuff about him once supporting *curing gays* ? That sounds absurd, but we're off the nonsense scale now.

    He had links to a group called CARE, a Christian organisation that apparently believes that homosexuality is an illness susceptible to cure.

    I'm afraid his God bothering disqualifies him from further consideration. We have had enough messianic figures in British politics.

    Oh god, yes please avoid. No more bible bashers.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,366
    edited June 2016
    At this rate the PLP will consist of one office containing Jezza and Milne.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    Chloe Smith having real trouble over Crabb on gay marriage re Sky

    What's this stuff about him once supporting *curing gays* ? That sounds absurd, but we're off the nonsense scale now.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/stephen-crabb-new-dwp-secretary-criticised-for-links-to-gay-cure-group-a6941281.html

    Clearly some link, obviously views will differ on how damaging that link is.
    That's rather awkward. He was one of their interns and employed interns from the same group. Hard to explain that away as a youthful indiscretion given his vote against gay marriage.

    Oh well, more grist to the mill.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,159
    Jobabob said:

    Labour: just point and laugh. There is nothing else to do.


    Fine and I can see why you say that, but what would your strategy be for removing Corbyn? I'm all ears (genuinely – the PLP read this blog and will be keen to hear any good ideas too!!!)
    Not elect him in the first place.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    tyson said:

    Jobabob said:

    Labour Press Office have apparently called a mutiny and we now not attend Corbyn events. Push push push...

    Job- where is your source for this?

    Was on twitter feed somewhere Hodges or Eaton, something like that
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440

    At this rate the PLP will consist of one office containing Jezza and Milne.

    Diane will never ever leave him. McDonnell wants the precious...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,583
    Odds now clearly against Article 50 being triggered this year.

    Yes 2.82
    No 1.43
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
  • So what happens if Jezza goes and the MPs only nominate non hard lefties? The membership will go insane! I guess the emotion 'we must have a lefty candidate' that gave rise to Jezza last time has died out now. One side has to lose the civil war and the fallout is going to be bloody.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    nunu said:

    What a day. The revolution continues.........

    I have to admit this is like watching the biggest political car crash evah. I've never seen anything like it in 40yrs.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    PUSH PUSH PUSH
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    Ok, I've been in meetings since 0900 - what the bloody heck is going on in politics!??!!?!?! Boris Johnson isn't running? Well what was the blooming point of all his maneuvrring for years then?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    PlatoSaid said:

    nunu said:

    What a day. The revolution continues.........

    I have to admit this is like watching the biggest political car crash evah. I've never seen anything like it in 40yrs.
    Which car crash - the blue one or the red one?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    How many times do i have to say this..

    Its the Chilcott report stupid!

    Corbyn is waiting for next Wednesday so the left can apply a lefy hook to the Blairites.
    Another bloody day of vitriol awaits.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Patrick said:

    So what happens if Jezza goes and the MPs only nominate non hard lefties? The membership will go insane! I guess the emotion 'we must have a lefty candidate' that gave rise to Jezza last time has died out now. One side has to lose the civil war and the fallout is going to be bloody.

    That's it Patrick. The party will lose thousands of hard left members.

    Which is exactly what the PLP wants to happen.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,605
    Jobabob said:

    PUSH PUSH PUSH

    Is the PLP too posh to push?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,067
    kle4 said:

    Ok, I've been in meetings since 0900 - what the bloody heck is going on in politics!??!!?!?! Boris Johnson isn't running? Well what was the blooming point of all his maneuvrring for years then?

    Also turns out that he didn't make the difference for Brexit winning.... history being re-written as events develop...
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    John_M said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Chloe Smith having real trouble over Crabb on gay marriage re Sky

    What's this stuff about him once supporting *curing gays* ? That sounds absurd, but we're off the nonsense scale now.

    He had links to a group called CARE, a Christian organisation that apparently believes that homosexuality is an illness susceptible to cure.

    I'm afraid his God bothering disqualifies him from further consideration. We have had enough messianic figures in British politics.
    On the Sky paper review, one of the guests quipped it was easier to confess to smoking weed or watching porn than being too keen on God.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,757

    At this rate the PLP will consist of one office containing Jezza and Milne.

    And Andy Burnham.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440
    I can see May treating Art 50 just like Dave did with Heathrow.

    Never making a decision, always delaying.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,102
    kle4 said:

    Ok, I've been in meetings since 0900 - what the bloody heck is going on in politics!??!!?!?! Boris Johnson isn't running? Well what was the blooming point of all his maneuvrring for years then?

    The same happened to Heseltine, Portillo and then Miliband. If you want it so much....you never get it.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,366
    edited June 2016
    All that bollocks about Jezza being decent honest etc etc etc. Given a bit of power, he won't give it up seemingly no matter what.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    MikeL said:

    Odds now clearly against Article 50 being triggered this year.

    Yes 2.82
    No 1.43


    I was saying this earlier – this year looks too soon as May has already said it won't be before the end of the year.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Pulpstar said:

    I can see May treating Art 50 just like Dave did with Heathrow.

    Never making a decision, always delaying.

    Thats why she is likely to lose..
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So if May is saying Brexit means Brexit, will her majority hold? If the next few months sees a split in Labour and some Tory defections to the Lib Dems, she may need to rely on the Cobynites to govern.

    May makes holding Hallam alot trickier than say a Leadsome or Fox I reckon. Not sure about any defections. Soubry probably stands down next GE if its one of the two true leavers.
    Could Soubry defect to Labour if it appoints a centrist europhile leader? Broxtowe very winnable under a Labour ticket. Others like that?
    Sourby wont be defecting. She'll be a Cabinet minister by end of September.
    Her casually sexist remarks this morning make me hope that she won't. Other than the NickXMP connection, I've never really heard of her before. Now I think she's a moron.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,727
    Jobabob said:

    Labour: just point and laugh. There is nothing else to do.


    Fine and I can see why you say that, but what would your strategy be for removing Corbyn? I'm all ears (genuinely – the PLP read this blog and will be keen to hear any good ideas too!!!)
    Just plead to his sense of history. Does he really want a party - that for over a hundred years has been fighting for the working man - to effectively end on his watch? History will be brutal to him.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,067

    Jobabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So if May is saying Brexit means Brexit, will her majority hold? If the next few months sees a split in Labour and some Tory defections to the Lib Dems, she may need to rely on the Cobynites to govern.

    May makes holding Hallam alot trickier than say a Leadsome or Fox I reckon. Not sure about any defections. Soubry probably stands down next GE if its one of the two true leavers.
    Could Soubry defect to Labour if it appoints a centrist europhile leader? Broxtowe very winnable under a Labour ticket. Others like that?
    How many actual europhiles are in the Tory party, of the Soubry/Ken Clarke variety? Is it a significant enough block to make that a reality? I think if May gets PM the resulting Brexit EEA fudge (Fudgexit? Brexifudge?) should hold them together. If it's an out and out leaver then it could be a possibility?
    Hello. Waves.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 80,366

    At this rate the PLP will consist of one office containing Jezza and Milne.

    And Andy Burnham.
    Got to have somebody to get the coffees in I suppose.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Pulpstar said:

    I can see May treating Art 50 just like Dave did with Heathrow.

    Never making a decision, always delaying.

    This is why it has to be an outer as leader. Gove, Liam or Andrea will trigger article 50.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    MaxPB said:

    Jobabob said:

    Labour: just point and laugh. There is nothing else to do.


    Fine and I can see why you say that, but what would your strategy be for removing Corbyn? I'm all ears (genuinely – the PLP read this blog and will be keen to hear any good ideas too!!!)
    Not elect him in the first place.
    Well yes but we are where we are so it's a bit rich criticising the PLP for executing the only viable strategy they have
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Pulpstar said:

    They're desperate to get Corbyn out before Chilcot lol

    If only the Jezza haters had an umbrella to stab him with...
This discussion has been closed.