That's pretty obvious - Margarert Hodge is not a flaky fringe character, and she won't have made her move without the prospect of serious support. Corbyn has cancelled his Glastonbury speech to make a Central London speech at 1030 this morning, which I assume will urge members not to get sidetracked into an internal squabble. Next week, I suspect we'll see some high-profile resignations ("threatening to quit" is a laughable paper tiger). The centre-right wants to move before the September conference has the chance to change the rules for leadership nominations, which will make McDonnell the odds-on successor to Corbyn.
But they're running out of time. The recess is a few weeks away, there is no obvious centre-right alternative, the membership is sceptical, and the hitherto largely passive Momentum fleet in being (>100K members) will mobilise a deselection effort if it gets to showdown stage. I don't think the rebels have any serious chance this year. They might manage it in the future, but will then probably get McDonnell. Whether they'll think that worth it I honestly don't know.
I'm still getting those round robin Corbyn emails which suggests he's up for a fight. I always reply...usually something critical (not horrible like I can do to pbCOMers).......surprisingly I never seem to get a response.
This is the last stand for the centre right.....they need a senior figurehead though to have a hope....a Starmer, Jarvis, Chukka (my personal favourite....the personification of cool).
Chukka is also the personification an empty suit.
A number of my leftie chums have their hopes invested in Starmer....
I wonder whether Nick Clegg will empathise with David Cameron this weekend. In effect, Cameron has made exactly the same mistake Clegg did and is paying a similar price though more immediately.
Both men, flushed with electoral success (Cameron's was real, Clegg's was illusory) believed they could enact fundamental change through the force of their own popularity in an act of real hubris.
Clegg believed he could change the electoral system - Cameron believed he could transform Britain's relationship with the EU. Both believed their innate popularity would transfer into support at a referendum.
Neither prepared well - Clegg indulged in the tuition fees debacle. Cameron promised a new settlement for Britain in Europe and came back with nothing.
Both failed - Cameron has had the sense to partially leave the stage. Unfortunately, Nick hung around like a bad smell for years perpetuating the problem and wrecking the party in 2015.
I think we're seeing a casual chain. Clegg makes a promise he never thought he'd have to keep and is destroyed when he accidentally wins. This destruction means Cameron accidentally gets a majority to has to keep a promise he never thought he'd have to. He's destroyed. I expect the Boris Premiership to be the third act meeting the same end.
Postal votes lie behind Leaves success.Most of the postal votes were returned at the time when opinion poll support for Leave was at its highest.This and the tendency of older people to vote leave means that the estimated 10 million postal votes probably split 60:40 in favour of leave a lead of 2 million.looking at final votes it looks as if on polling day Remain probably carried the day 51:49 but this was not sufficient to offset leaves 2 million lead from postal votes. Does anyone know if the count has produced the exact postal non postal split?
I remember that on election night, quite early on in the BBC coverage, Paddy "Hat Eating" Ashdown raised this prospect but it was dismissed by Dimblebore and Curtis.
Rather the like the ' Tories for Corbyn ' thing I think Remainder voters should join the Tories to vote for Boris. He deserves what's coming to him as much as Clegg did.
In my current mood, I can see myself indeed voting for Johnson.
Why Labour members give Corbyn such an easy time is quite beyond me. They should be furious. Nick's assumption that the only alternative to him is on the centre right is extraordinary. Is he really the best the centre left can do? This is not September 2015. Cameron is gone, the UK faces huge political and economic uncertainty. Millions of Labour voters and others need an effective opposition. I refuse to believe there is no-one better than Jeremy Corbyn to lead it.
Corbyn is - we believe, and I'm talking about members here - a decent man with an attractive project. I think that many members (quite possibly including Corbyn) would be open to persuasion if there was someone with obvious broader floating voter appeal with similar qualities. That's why McDonnell's stock has risen somewhat - he has more of the classic politician's technique, as Fox says: vigour and flexibility. Beyond him, the limited number of MPs who nominated Corbyn shows the limits of the pool.
And outside the pool, is anyone coming up with either an attractive project or broader appeal? What is the social democratic project these days? More vigorous europhilia? I'd like it, but it's not exactly a propitious moment for it, is it? More regionalism? Yawn. One very quickly ends up talking about personal background - Jarvis used to be a soldier, that sort of thing - which is fine as far as it goes but...
The centre-left needs both a specific leader and a specific project. Merely whinging about Corbyn isn't going to get them anywhere.
Now we've voted Leave - what EU related institutions do we still need to consider? ECHR? Is that just a case of repealing/amending our Human Rights Act?
When will the ECJ stop having a practical role? I presume many cases are trundling through the system.
Sigh.... repealing the ECHR has already been looked at after the election and was a non starter.
ECJ depends on the deal with the EU. If it's EEA then it will still be in the picture.
Pensioners weren't intimidated. They just don't like immigrants. You tell me if that defines them as racist? I'd say it was a huge motivation and the prime reason Leave won. You may not agree.
As I've told you before writing waycist doesn't magically make everyone who points out bigotry wrong.. Fortunately it's still so side splittingly funny that doesn't matter though.
My mother was an immigrant, as was my father. My wife is an immigrant as is my brother's wife. So can you do me the decency when addressing us B.O.O.ers and STFU?
I suspect that the reason pensioners came out in their droves is that they remember the 1975 referendum and wanted to correct their error.
There's a nasty rant from Giles Coren in the Times about how he hates old people and they should be barred from voting.
Sorry Giles, it's my age cohort (40/50 year olds) that swung it to Leave.
Surprisingly, both my daughters (in their 20's) voted for leave!
If Boris DOESN'T get PM, I wonder what sort of mood he will be in and how will he behave?!
Relief I would imagine.
He torched the building for the sake of his career, but he didn't really want a career trying to sweep up the ashes
I think the Tory party is suffering it's worst crisis since Neville Chamberlain. This dwarfs the Thatcher matricide, and it's near extinction under IDS.
The acrimony is terrible- listening to Grieve and Soubry for starters. Cameron and Osborne must be seething. And, like the many other Brits, some Tory MP's will be looking at a Brexit fallout and thinking "What have I done?"
If anything, the chaos and carnage that will ensue over the coming months and years will put Euroscepticism to bed- it is a pity we had to press the nuclear button to prove the absurdity of the Eurosceptic cause.
That's what you want to happen, though, isn't it? You want it all to come crashing down, so you can stand atop the wreckage and sneer down at all the racist, homophobic, nihilistic, white working class and pensioners that you hate so much. You don't understand that you own this as much as anyone who voted for out. It's your favoured politicians and commentators, your way of thinking that has driven the country to this point. You've tried to mold the country into the way that you want it, want us to think just like you do, never for once thinking that you and your ilk might be doing more harm than good. Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem tribal zealots have sown this, and now you're reaping it. If you could have just stepped back a little, tried to bring us along, rather than sneer and belittle us, it might have worked- I'd have gladly voted to stay in an EEC type of organisation, rather than an EU, but you couldn't, you knew you were right, morally superior, and we were stupid. Well, now the stupid people have won, and for good or bad, we've all got to take a bite of the shit sandwich and chew it down. Enjoy.
Well said.
Did you see the bits of Lexit the Movie featuring the FBU boss? He's not my cup of tea - but made the anti-EU case pretty well.
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
snip
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
I keep hearing people saying they respect the result. I don't and millions of others don't. There should have been a minimum of say 60% for such a significant one-way ticket that divides class, age and geography. I spit on the result.
Loser.
Well done on your result in Luton! How did that happen I am really suprised at that.
I would guess that huge numbers of Labour voters, in a predominantly Labour town, swung it. Luton went 57% Leave, in a town where 28% vote Tory (some of whom voted Remain) , 12% UKIP, and 52% Labour. Kelvin Hopkins and Labour Leave deserve the credit.
I'm Remain and I'm angry. The victory was built on the back of two stonking lies: Turkey and £350m.
But I accept the result. We have to move on and find a policy as Ken Clarke has been saying. The question is what we do about a situation where the country is pretty much, give a % or 2, split in two? Indeed, it seems close enough to me, that there will probably be enough people with buyer's remorse within a month or two that we could re-run it and get a Remain result.
If Boris DOESN'T get PM, I wonder what sort of mood he will be in and how will he behave?!
Relief I would imagine.
He torched the building for the sake of his career, but he didn't really want a career trying to sweep up the ashes
I think the Tory party is suffering it's worst crisis since Neville Chamberlain. This dwarfs the Thatcher matricide, and it's near extinction under IDS.
The acrimony is terrible- listening to Grieve and Soubry for starters. Cameron and Osborne must be seething. And, like the many other Brits, some Tory MP's will be looking at a Brexit fallout and thinking "What have I done?"
If anything, the chaos and carnage that will ensue over the coming months and years will put Euroscepticism to bed- it is a pity we had to press the nuclear button to prove the absurdity of the Eurosceptic cause.
That's what you want to happen, though, isn't it? You want it all to come crashing down, so you can stand atop the wreckage and sneer down at all the racist, homophobic, nihilistic, white working class and pensioners that you hate so much. You don't understand that you own this as much as anyone who voted for out. It's your favoured politicians and commentators, your way of thinking that has driven the country to this point. You've tried to mold the country into the way that you want it, want us to think just like you do, never for once thinking that you and your ilk might be doing more harm than good. Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem tribal zealots have sown this, and now you're reaping it. If you could have just stepped back a little, tried to bring us along, rather than sneer and belittle us, it might have worked- I'd have gladly voted to stay in an EEC type of organisation, rather than an EU, but you couldn't, you knew you were right, morally superior, and we were stupid. Well, now the stupid people have won, and for good or bad, we've all got to take a bite of the shit sandwich and chew it down. Enjoy.
Hard to argue with that. But where do we go from here? It's the ordinary punters that will bear the brunt of any Brexit bumps. And the establishment is still very much in charge.
I have a perfect left candidate that I think could reach into Labour heartlands.
He is major supporter of Corbyn, so wouldn't move against Jeremy. But he has a great back story- fought in Afghanistan and Sandhurst trained. He also has a messianic following in Norwich. He is presentable, good looking and communicates easily.
Plato, my puppy (still call her that although she's 6) has developed arthritis in her knee and back. She's on anti-inflammatories but is still in pain. Any suggestions apart from surgery?
There's a nasty rant from Giles Coren in the Times about how he hates old people and they should be barred from voting.
Sorry Giles, it's my age cohort (40/50 year olds) that swung it to Leave.
Coren is 46 :-D.
Have to admit that I'm loving the reaction of "Liberal" Metrotossi who suddenly resemble a self-absorbed self-important self-satisfied Lady Bountiful with her nose so far in the air she just walked into a lamppost.
And we of course remember the Blessed Giles' Letter to the Subeditors:
"I don't really like people tinkering with my copy for the sake of tinkering. I do not enjoy the suggestion that you have a better ear or eye for how I want my words to read than I do. Owen, we discussed your turning three of my long sentences into six short ones in a single piece, and how that wasn't going to happen anymore, so I'm really hoping it wasn't you that fucked up my review on saturday."
'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.
I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'
Yep, the Union is done. This wasn't just the English voting for a government the Scots didn't want; it was the English putting Scotland on a completely different and unalterable future trajectory that the Scots demonstrably don't want. The partnership, such as it was, is over.
The Destiny of Man is to unite, not to divide. If you keep on dividing you end up as a collection of monkeys throwing nuts at each other out of separate trees. T H White.
We're throwing nuts at each other. As a Scot who voted strongly for the Union in 2014 I see that destiny disappearing
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
snip
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
I keep hearing people saying they respect the result. I don't and millions of others don't. There should have been a minimum of say 60% for such a significant one-way ticket that divides class, age and geography. I spit on the result.
Loser.
Well done on your result in Luton! How did that happen I am really suprised at that.
I would guess that huge numbers of Labour voters, in a predominantly Labour town, swung it. Luton went 57% Leave, in a town where 28% vote Tory (some of whom voted Remain) , 12% UKIP, and 52% Labour. Kelvin Hopkins and Labour Leave deserve the credit.
I'm Remain and I'm angry. The victory was built on the back of two stonking lies: Turkey and £350m.
But I accept the result. We have to move on and find a policy as Ken Clarke has been saying. The question is what we do about a situation where the country is pretty much, give a % or 2, split in two? Indeed, it seems close enough to me, that there will probably be enough people with buyer's remorse within a month or two that we could re-run it and get a Remain result.
Not a rerun but some sort of EFTA/EEA deal I think.
A second referendum would just deliver a bigger "out" vote.
Pensioners weren't intimidated. They just don't like immigrants. You tell me if that defines them as racist? I'd say it was a huge motivation and the prime reason Leave won. You may not agree.
As I've told you before writing waycist doesn't magically make everyone who points out bigotry wrong.. Fortunately it's still so side splittingly funny that doesn't matter though.
My mother was an immigrant, as was my father. My wife is an immigrant as is my brother's wife. So can you do me the decency when addressing us B.O.O.ers and STFU?
I suspect that the reason pensioners came out in their droves is that they remember the 1975 referendum and wanted to correct their error.
There's a nasty rant from Giles Coren in the Times about how he hates old people and they should be barred from voting.
Sorry Giles, it's my age cohort (40/50 year olds) that swung it to Leave.
I'd a glance at The Times online earlier - golly what a grief fest. I'll have a read of the comments a bit later, they're usually much more pro-Brexit than the articles.
I'm surprised the pages don't have a black border.
OTOH, Janice Turner really is on form. She reluctantly voted Remain, but makes much the same arguments as Twisted Fire Stopper.
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
snip
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
I keep hearing people saying they respect the result. I don't and millions of others don't. There should have been a minimum of say 60% for such a significant one-way ticket that divides class, age and geography. I spit on the result.
Loser.
Well done on your result in Luton! How did that happen I am really suprised at that.
I would guess that huge numbers of Labour voters, in a predominantly Labour town, swung it. Luton went 57% Leave, in a town where 28% vote Tory (some of whom voted Remain) , 12% UKIP, and 52% Labour. Kelvin Hopkins and Labour Leave deserve the credit.
I'm Remain and I'm angry. The victory was built on the back of two stonking lies: Turkey and £350m.
But I accept the result. We have to move on and find a policy as Ken Clarke has been saying. The question is what we do about a situation where the country is pretty much, give a % or 2, split in two? Indeed, it seems close enough to me, that there will probably be enough people with buyer's remorse within a month or two that we could re-run it and get a Remain result.
Not a rerun but some sort of EFTA/EEA deal I think.
A second referendum would just deliver a bigger "out" vote.
Not if its run after the recession and redundancies kick in.
The first thing I would like to hear is a big bold generous offer to EU citizens already in the UK. I know their status hasn't been questioned by anyone but I think it's important to make them feel welcome and know they'll be able to stay.
Exactly!
Ideally, but we have yet to invoke 'Article-50', we should offer any non-UK passport resident carte-blanche to apply for a five-year 'right-to-remain' in the UK. The process must be complete by end-of-CY16 and proof-of-current-residency (council-tax; reputable landlord/employer) must be supplied as evidence (so passports will be required).
Intrusion into personal circumstances should be minimal: A digital-passport should be the minimum. The only requirement should be to become Subjects-of-Crown/UK-citizen and must be complete by CY21. This rule should be applied to all of those resident in England/UK (including 'illegals').
Pensioners weren't intimidated. They just don't like immigrants. You tell me if that defines them as racist? I'd say it was a huge motivation and the prime reason Leave won. You may not agree.
As I've told you before writing waycist doesn't magically make everyone who points out bigotry wrong.. Fortunately it's still so side splittingly funny that doesn't matter though.
My mother was an immigrant, as was my father. My wife is an immigrant as is my brother's wife. So can you do me the decency when addressing us B.O.O.ers and STFU?
I suspect that the reason pensioners came out in their droves is that they remember the 1975 referendum and wanted to correct their error.
There's a nasty rant from Giles Coren in the Times about how he hates old people and they should be barred from voting.
Sorry Giles, it's my age cohort (40/50 year olds) that swung it to Leave.
I'd a glance at The Times online earlier - golly what a grief fest. I'll have a read of the comments a bit later, they're usually much more pro-Brexit than the articles.
I'm surprised the pages don't have a black border.
OTOH, Janice Turner really is on form. She reluctantly voted Remain, but makes much the same arguments as Twisted Fire Stopper.
I suspect many reluctant Remainers are going to have their eyes opened if the hatemonger Remainers don't control themselves.
Now we've voted Leave - what EU related institutions do we still need to consider? ECHR? Is that just a case of repealing/amending our Human Rights Act?
When will the ECJ stop having a practical role? I presume many cases are trundling through the system.
Sigh.... repealing the ECHR has already been looked at after the election and was a non starter.
ECJ depends on the deal with the EU. If it's EEA then it will still be in the picture.
That's not true, we've been through this many times on here. EEA nations use the EFTA court and they only rule on trade matters. For everything else the supreme court is the highest arbiter in the land.
Why Labour members give Corbyn such an easy time is quite beyond me. They should be furious. Nick's assumption that the only alternative to him is on the centre right is extraordinary. Is he really the best the centre left can do? This is not September 2015. Cameron is gone, the UK faces huge political and economic uncertainty. Millions of Labour voters and others need an effective opposition. I refuse to believe there is no-one better than Jeremy Corbyn to lead it.
Corbyn is - we believe, and I'm talking about members here - a decent man with an attractive project. I think that many members (quite possibly including Corbyn) would be open to persuasion if there was someone with obvious broader floating voter appeal with similar qualities. That's why McDonnell's stock has risen somewhat - he has more of the classic politician's technique, as Fox says: vigour and flexibility. Beyond him, the limited number of MPs who nominated Corbyn shows the limits of the pool.
And outside the pool, is anyone coming up with either an attractive project or broader appeal? What is the social democratic project these days? More vigorous europhilia? I'd like it, but it's not exactly a propitious moment for it, is it? More regionalism? Yawn. One very quickly ends up talking about personal background - Jarvis used to be a soldier, that sort of thing - which is fine as far as it goes but...
The centre-left needs both a specific leader and a specific project. Merely whinging about Corbyn isn't going to get them anywhere.
Recognising there are serious problems with Corbyn would be a start. As I say, this is not September 2015. Everything has changed completely. It is not about centre right or centre left, it is about finding someone who can lead a credible opposition to a Tory PM at a time of major flux in this country's history. Unless you believe there is no-one better than Jeremy Corbyn to do that it is incumbent on you and other members to put pressure on him to stand down so that someone new can be chosen. This is no longer about gently rolling along to another defeat in 2020, it is now much bigger than that.
I wonder whether Nick Clegg will empathise with David Cameron this weekend. In effect, Cameron has made exactly the same mistake Clegg did and is paying a similar price though more immediately.
Both men, flushed with electoral success (Cameron's was real, Clegg's was illusory) believed they could enact fundamental change through the force of their own popularity in an act of real hubris.
Clegg believed he could change the electoral system - Cameron believed he could transform Britain's relationship with the EU. Both believed their innate popularity would transfer into support at a referendum.
Neither prepared well - Clegg indulged in the tuition fees debacle. Cameron promised a new settlement for Britain in Europe and came back with nothing.
Both failed - Cameron has had the sense to partially leave the stage. Unfortunately, Nick hung around like a bad smell for years perpetuating the problem and wrecking the party in 2015.
I think we're seeing a casual chain. Clegg makes a promise he never thought he'd have to keep and is destroyed when he accidentally wins. This destruction means Cameron accidentally gets a majority to has to keep a promise he never thought he'd have to. He's destroyed. I expect the Boris Premiership to be the third act meeting the same end.
I read an interesting piece earlier - think it was Kirkup in the DT about Cameron's tactics over the years.
Saying he'd withdraw from the EPP, but delayed and delayed for 4yrs - only carrying it out when he needed to respond to backbench unhappiness.
Then again over his infamous Cast Iron guarantee - after 80 odd rebels signed a letter - he delayed and delayed.
Then he felt pressured into offering a referendum to stave off rebellions again/threat of UKIP - but didn't think he'd need to carry it out.
The whole piece just confirmed to me that it's all been window dressing that he didn't believe in. And as you say - he's been found out. No one who was a serious Eurosceptic would've accepted the dismal first offer and run the campaign he did.
'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.
I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'
Yep, the Union is done. This wasn't just the English voting for a government the Scots didn't want; it was the English putting Scotland on a completely different and unalterable future trajectory that the Scots demonstrably don't want. The partnership, such as it was, is over.
What exactly was the meaning of voting to remain in the Union in 2014, other than an acceptance of being outvoted by the English in future decisions?
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
snip
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
I keep hearing people saying they respect the result. I don't and millions of others don't. There should have been a minimum of say 60% for such a significant one-way ticket that divides class, age and geography. I spit on the result.
Loser.
Well done on your result in Luton! How did that happen I am really suprised at that.
I would guess that huge numbers of Labour voters, in a predominantly Labour town, swung it. Luton went 57% Leave, in a town where 28% vote Tory (some of whom voted Remain) , 12% UKIP, and 52% Labour. Kelvin Hopkins and Labour Leave deserve the credit.
I'm Remain and I'm angry. The victory was built on the back of two stonking lies: Turkey and £350m.
But I accept the result. We have to move on and find a policy as Ken Clarke has been saying. The question is what we do about a situation where the country is pretty much, give a % or 2, split in two? Indeed, it seems close enough to me, that there will probably be enough people with buyer's remorse within a month or two that we could re-run it and get a Remain result.
I think people have made their decision, and are content with it, and a re-run would produce a similar outcome. I think David L's suggestions, upthread, have a lot of merit.
'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.
I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'
Yep, I support the Union - but you really can't argue against any of that.
Scotland might be a bit less Pro change-of-masters when they realise that no only would they lose rUK funding but they would be asked to be a net contributor to the EU. King Log and King Stork anyone?
So Scotland is a poor sponger but rich enough to make net contributions to the EU?
Rather the like the ' Tories for Corbyn ' thing I think Remainder voters should join the Tories to vote for Boris. He deserves what's coming to him as much as Clegg did.
In my current mood, I can see myself indeed voting for Johnson.
Johnson is now to Cameron what Hestletine was to Thatcher.
Now we've voted Leave - what EU related institutions do we still need to consider? ECHR? Is that just a case of repealing/amending our Human Rights Act?
When will the ECJ stop having a practical role? I presume many cases are trundling through the system.
Sigh.... repealing the ECHR has already been looked at after the election and was a non starter.
ECJ depends on the deal with the EU. If it's EEA then it will still be in the picture.
That's not true, we've been through this many times on here. EEA nations use the EFTA court and they only rule on trade matters. For everything else the supreme court is the highest arbiter in the land.
The EFTA court is bound by ECJ case law, which applies to all issues affecting the single market.
The first thing I would like to hear is a big bold generous offer to EU citizens already in the UK. I know their status hasn't been questioned by anyone but I think it's important to make them feel welcome and know they'll be able to stay.
Exactly!
Ideally, but we have yet to invoke 'Article-50', we should offer any non-UK passport resident carte-blanche to apply for a five-year 'right-to-remain' in the UK. The process must be complete by end-of-CY16 and proof-of-current-residency (council-tax; reputable landlord/employer) must be supplied as evidence (so passports will be required).
Intrusion into personal circumstances should be minimal: A digital-passport should be the minimum. The only requirement should be to become Subjects-of-Crown/UK-citizen and must be complete by CY21. This rule should be applied to all of those resident in England/UK (including 'illegals').
Sounds like a massive and expensive bueraceatic exercise. And what happens after 5 years? What about someone who moves to the UK the day before we formally leave the EU?
Of course, many EU citizens living in the UK already qualify for UK citizenship.
Given the circumstances I'm being allowed some time on site, albeit dictated, I could get used to this Miss Moneypenny.
1. Congratulations to LEAVE. The people have spoken. The decision is clear.
2. Many apologies I got the result wrong. My ARSE was trending toward LEAVE but certainly wouldn't have moved to 52/48 to LEAVE, more likely the direct opposite. Essentially I underestimated turnout especially with WWC.
3. I'm very sorry to see Cameron go. Given the hand he was dealt in 2010 he proved to be an excellent Coalition PM. He gave us the referendum, rolled the dice for REMAIN and lost.
4. Next PM. It's May for me, anyone but Boris.
5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane.
6.Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around.
SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.
Plato, my puppy (still call her that although she's 6) has developed arthritis in her knee and back. She's on anti-inflammatories but is still in pain. Any suggestions apart from surgery?
I'm really sorry- it's tough watching your pet struggle in pain. Dogs are particularly stoical too. Have you looked into diets? Have you tried homemade food- brown rice, chicken (without skin), and beef, and barely cooked vegetables- courgettes, carrots and greens, supplemented by an Omega 3. The problem is once you get them on this kind of food, they do not ever want to go back to the other types, but you may start to see some general improvements in your dog's wellbeing.
Postal votes lie behind Leaves success.Most of the postal votes were returned at the time when opinion poll support for Leave was at its highest.This and the tendency of older people to vote leave means that the estimated 10 million postal votes probably split 60:40 in favour of leave a lead of 2 million.looking at final votes it looks as if on polling day Remain probably carried the day 51:49 but this was not sufficient to offset leaves 2 million lead from postal votes. Does anyone know if the count has produced the exact postal non postal split?
I remember that on election night, quite early on in the BBC coverage, Paddy "Hat Eating" Ashdown raised this prospect but it was dismissed by Dimblebore and Curtis.
As a matter of interest why is the issue of postal votes an issue at all? Unless there has been fraud it's a totally legitimate way to vote, especially favouring older people. The idea that somehow 'postal votes' won it for leave is bizarre. People won it for leave.
And we can all go around citing this or that circumstance. Had Thomas Mair not shot Jo Cox there's a distinct possibility Leave would have won 55-45.
I'm hearing you need free movement of people to have free trade with the EU, so does that mean there isn't any free trade with the US, Japan, India, Canada or Australia?
If so might this explain why the EU has done so badly relatively in the last 20 years?
Given the circumstances I'm being allowed some time on site, albeit dictated, I could get used to this Miss Moneypenny.
1. Congratulations to LEAVE. The people have spoken. The decision is clear.
2. Many apologies I got the result wrong. My ARSE was trending toward LEAVE but certainly wouldn't have moved to 52/48 to LEAVE, more likely the direct opposite. Essentially I underestimated turnout especially with WWC.
3. I'm very sorry to see Cameron go. Given the hand he was dealt in 2010 he proved to be an excellent Coalition PM. He gave us the referendum, rolled the dice for REMAIN and lost.
4. Next PM. It's May for me, anyone but Boris.
5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane.
6.Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around.
SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.
'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.
I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'
Yep, the Union is done. This wasn't just the English voting for a government the Scots didn't want; it was the English putting Scotland on a completely different and unalterable future trajectory that the Scots demonstrably don't want. The partnership, such as it was, is over.
What exactly was the meaning of voting to remain in the Union in 2014, other than an acceptance of being outvoted by the English in future decisions?
Something that was conceptual has become reality. I imagine that has concentrated a few minds.
Now we've voted Leave - what EU related institutions do we still need to consider? ECHR? Is that just a case of repealing/amending our Human Rights Act?
When will the ECJ stop having a practical role? I presume many cases are trundling through the system.
Sigh.... repealing the ECHR has already been looked at after the election and was a non starter.
ECJ depends on the deal with the EU. If it's EEA then it will still be in the picture.
That's not true, we've been through this many times on here. EEA nations use the EFTA court and they only rule on trade matters. For everything else the supreme court is the highest arbiter in the land.
The EFTA court is bound by ECJ case law, which applies to all issues affecting the single market.
No, only for single market trade. Everything else comes back to us, and the EFTA court is not bound by ECJ rulings, at least in theory, in practice ECJ rulings on single market issues are normally not an issue, it is their overreach into common law and hum rights law that is worrying and something we no longer need to be concerned with.
When is Mr Hollande going to accept the inevitable: France is no longer a global-player and has been subsumed by the EU? Time for a revamped UNSC:
# The United States of America # China # The United Kingdom # Remainian-EU # Russia.
Will England+Wales+Maybe NI still qualify for a UN seat?
One seat on the Security Council and three places in the last 16 of the footy. We definitely punch above our weight.
Why do the left (even people to the left of Corbyn) support Brexit. Would have thought the idea of workers right having a floor would have been attractive, knowing a right wing tory governmnet will get elected every now and again.
It may be tempting but I find it wrong to rely on external undemocratic impositions to protect workers rights. It also provides a comfort blanket and takes away some of the risk of voting Tory so can work against Labour.
The structures of the EU also force the UK into adopting privatisation and competition policies whether or not the people or the government like it.
Leaving will allow the government to govern, to carry through with its manifesto and deliver what it promises without being held back by the EU or being able to use the EU as an excuse.
So whatever the colour of the next government parliament will be sovereign, and I am very happy with that.
There's also the shafting of the people, the support of big business, bankers, other assorted fatcats and hangers on, TTIP and the total inability of the EU to organise a p up in a brewery when it comes to trying to deal with fundamental issues like the migrant crisis, carbon leakage or a fair voting system for Eurovision.
I realise that I have shared a bed with bigots and xenophobes to deliver Brexit, but I know that they are not about to form a government. So thanks for your votes, but Britain's future isn't your vision of the future.
Speaking personally, I don't much care whether the next PM is a Leaver or an erstwhile Remainer. Principally, I want someone who will be a good, strong negotiator and secure the best possible deal for Britain. Not sure who that character might be, though.
Why Labour members give Corbyn such an easy time is quite beyond me. They should be furious. Nick's assumption that the only alternative to him is on the centre right is extraordinary. Is he really the best the centre left can do? This is not September 2015. Cameron is gone, the UK faces huge political and economic uncertainty. Millions of Labour voters and others need an effective opposition. I refuse to believe there is no-one better than Jeremy Corbyn to lead it.
Corbyn is - we believe, and I'm talking about members here - a decent man with an attractive project. I think that many members (quite possibly including Corbyn) would be open to persuasion if there was someone with obvious broader floating voter appeal with similar qualities. That's why McDonnell's stock has risen somewhat - he has more of the classic politician's technique, as Fox says: vigour and flexibility. Beyond him, the limited number of MPs who nominated Corbyn shows the limits of the pool.
And outside the pool, is anyone coming up with either an attractive project or broader appeal? What is the social democratic project these days? More vigorous europhilia? I'd like it, but it's not exactly a propitious moment for it, is it? More regionalism? Yawn. One very quickly ends up talking about personal background - Jarvis used to be a soldier, that sort of thing - which is fine as far as it goes but...
The centre-left needs both a specific leader and a specific project. Merely whinging about Corbyn isn't going to get them anywhere.
Corbyn may well be decent, but he's not very effective and is unable to deliver a Labour government.
Labour could very well have a jolly good time with him over the next 4 years. But it's all pointless in the end.
This might have been just about tolerable in usual circumstances, but not now.
'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.
I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'
Yep, the Union is done. This wasn't just the English voting for a government the Scots didn't want; it was the English putting Scotland on a completely different and unalterable future trajectory that the Scots demonstrably don't want. The partnership, such as it was, is over.
What exactly was the meaning of voting to remain in the Union in 2014, other than an acceptance of being outvoted by the English in future decisions?
If one is a Scottish (or Ulster, or Welsh) Unionist, why would one object to a vote to Leave the EU? I'm a Unionist, and a eurosceptic. To me, they're the two sides of the same coin. Britain, united and independent.
Given the circumstances I'm being allowed some time on site, albeit dictated, I could get used to this Miss Moneypenny.
1. Congratulations to LEAVE. The people have spoken. The decision is clear.
2. Many apologies I got the result wrong. My ARSE was trending toward LEAVE but certainly wouldn't have moved to 52/48 to LEAVE, more likely the direct opposite. Essentially I underestimated turnout especially with WWC.
3. I'm very sorry to see Cameron go. Given the hand he was dealt in 2010 he proved to be an excellent Coalition PM. He gave us the referendum, rolled the dice for REMAIN and lost.
4. Next PM. It's May for me, anyone but Boris.
5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane.
6.Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around.
SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.
Glad my preferred candidate has the blessing of your ARSE (well, not a prediction, but still!)
Given the circumstances I'm being allowed some time on site, albeit dictated, I could get used to this Miss Moneypenny.
1. Congratulations to LEAVE. The people have spoken. The decision is clear.
2. Many apologies I got the result wrong. My ARSE was trending toward LEAVE but certainly wouldn't have moved to 52/48 to LEAVE, more likely the direct opposite. Essentially I underestimated turnout especially with WWC.
3. I'm very sorry to see Cameron go. Given the hand he was dealt in 2010 he proved to be an excellent Coalition PM. He gave us the referendum, rolled the dice for REMAIN and lost.
4. Next PM. It's May for me, anyone but Boris.
5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane.
6.Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around.
SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.
Good to see you Jack. I'm glad your ARSE took a health sabbatical. From what you have said I would have backed it for Remain.
Hope you recover fully soon and see you for POTUS 2016.
If Boris DOESN'T get PM, I wonder what sort of mood he will be in and how will he behave?!
Relief I would imagine.
He torched the building for the sake of his career, but he didn't really want a career trying to sweep up the ashes
It really would be interesting to know whether Boris made his decision on this referendum really thinking that Leave might win. I do wonder if his comment on an illegal immigrant amnesty near the end was a desperate attempt to throw away victory, and was let down by it almost completely ignored.
He actually voted at 9.30pm - must be almost unprecedented for a campaign leader to vote so late. Wonder if psychologist could make anything of that. He had allegedly conceded defeat before he had even voted himself!
Hadn't he been caught up in the train fiasco that his successor has created?
Boris was seen on the tube either just before or after he voted. He (allegedly) told some guy he thought leave had lost. Of course the guy then takes a photo of a dishevelled Boris and posts the comment up on Twitter.
If he does make PM he is going to have to change....
Plato, my puppy (still call her that although she's 6) has developed arthritis in her knee and back. She's on anti-inflammatories but is still in pain. Any suggestions apart from surgery?
Oh poor little girl. I've only used anti-inflammatories/painkillers like Metacam. I know turmeric works well too on arthritis, but doesn't taste nice. Well worth having a Google.
'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.
I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'
Yep, I support the Union - but you really can't argue against any of that.
Scotland might be a bit less Pro change-of-masters when they realise that no only would they lose rUK funding but they would be asked to be a net contributor to the EU. King Log and King Stork anyone?
The problem the two nats ( NI and SNP ) still havent faced up to is does their target Union actually want them ?
Most people in the Republic view NI as a socially divided basket case they're be out of their minds to take on. I can't see Scotland getting as warm a welcome as they might think. They are tinged with the british brush and currently the EU has more than enough on its plate than taking on another bunch of ingrates.
Postal votes lie behind Leaves success.Most of the postal votes were returned at the time when opinion poll support for Leave was at its highest.This and the tendency of older people to vote leave means that the estimated 10 million postal votes probably split 60:40 in favour of leave a lead of 2 million.looking at final votes it looks as if on polling day Remain probably carried the day 51:49 but this was not sufficient to offset leaves 2 million lead from postal votes. Does anyone know if the count has produced the exact postal non postal split?
I remember that on election night, quite early on in the BBC coverage, Paddy "Hat Eating" Ashdown raised this prospect but it was dismissed by Dimblebore and Curtis.
As a matter of interest why is the issue of postal votes an issue at all? Unless there has been fraud it's a totally legitimate way to vote, especially favouring older people. The idea that somehow 'postal votes' won it for leave is bizarre. People won it for leave.
And we can all go around citing this or that circumstance. Had Thomas Mair not shot Jo Cox there's a distinct possibility Leave would have won 55-45.
Well quite. People cast their postal votes when they've made up their mind. The idea that they "win it" for anyone never makes much sense to me. If Remain won on the day then that is only because postal voters cast their votes before the day. Other than those who died, they would have cast their vote on the day the same way.
'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.
I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'
Yep, the Union is done. This wasn't just the English voting for a government the Scots didn't want; it was the English putting Scotland on a completely different and unalterable future trajectory that the Scots demonstrably don't want. The partnership, such as it was, is over.
What exactly was the meaning of voting to remain in the Union in 2014, other than an acceptance of being outvoted by the English in future decisions?
Something that was conceptual has become reality. I imagine that has concentrated a few minds.
I can't stress enough how much the Better Together campaign played the 'loss of EU membership' card. Lots of No voters I know are doing some soul searching at the moment. Not all will come on board but given Yes Scotland got to 45% last time, if Sturgeon can stitch together a convincing deal, enough will.
Now we've voted Leave - what EU related institutions do we still need to consider? ECHR? Is that just a case of repealing/amending our Human Rights Act?
When will the ECJ stop having a practical role? I presume many cases are trundling through the system.
Sigh.... repealing the ECHR has already been looked at after the election and was a non starter.
ECJ depends on the deal with the EU. If it's EEA then it will still be in the picture.
That's not true, we've been through this many times on here. EEA nations use the EFTA court and they only rule on trade matters. For everything else the supreme court is the highest arbiter in the land.
The EFTA court is bound by ECJ case law, which applies to all issues affecting the single market.
No, only for single market trade. Everything else comes back to us, and the EFTA court is not bound by ECJ rulings, at least in theory, in practice ECJ rulings on single market issues are normally not an issue, it is their overreach into common law and hum rights law that is worrying and something we no longer need to be concerned with.
Not so. We will be, de facto, part of the single market, so ECJ rulings would de facto apply here too. If we were an EEA member, for example, we would be obliged to apply EU trademark law and ECJ rulings on it in the UK. The same would apply to myriad other areas of law. The ECJ would have less jurisdiction, that is true, but it would still write plenty of our laws.
I'm hearing you need free movement of people to have free trade with the EU, so does that mean there isn't any free trade with the US, Japan, India, Canada or Australia?
If so might this explain why the EU has done so badly relatively in the last 20 years?
No, you don't. Canada has a relatively reasonable free goods trade deal with the EU, no free movement.
GDP growth in the EU is poor because Germany are sucking up much of the demand and providing not a lot of supply.
Why Labour members give Corbyn such an easy time is quite beyond me. They should be furious. Nick's assumption that the only alternative to him is on the centre right is extraordinary. Is he really the best the centre left can do? This is not September 2015. Cameron is gone, the UK faces huge political and economic uncertainty. Millions of Labour voters and others need an effective opposition. I refuse to believe there is no-one better than Jeremy Corbyn to lead it.
Corbyn is - we believe, and I'm talking about members here - a decent man with an attractive project. I think that many members (quite possibly including Corbyn) would be open to persuasion if there was someone with obvious broader floating voter appeal with similar qualities. That's why McDonnell's stock has risen somewhat - he has more of the classic politician's technique, as Fox says: vigour and flexibility. Beyond him, the limited number of MPs who nominated Corbyn shows the limits of the pool.
And outside the pool, is anyone coming up with either an attractive project or broader appeal? What is the social democratic project these days? More vigorous europhilia? I'd like it, but it's not exactly a propitious moment for it, is it? More regionalism? Yawn. One very quickly ends up talking about personal background - Jarvis used to be a soldier, that sort of thing - which is fine as far as it goes but...
The centre-left needs both a specific leader and a specific project. Merely whinging about Corbyn isn't going to get them anywhere.
Corbyn may well be decent, but he's not very effective and is unable to deliver a Labour government.
Labour could very well have a jolly good time with him over the next 4 years. But it's all pointless in the end.
This might have been just about tolerable in usual circumstances, but not now.
I'd appreciate what you two think about Clive Lewis. He is moulded on the same socialist fibre as Corbyn, but looks like he could connect too with Labour voters. He carries more than a sense of anti establishment. He is adored in Norwich and has a superb back story.
'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.
I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'
Yep, I support the Union - but you really can't argue against any of that.
Scotland might be a bit less Pro change-of-masters when they realise that no only would they lose rUK funding but they would be asked to be a net contributor to the EU. King Log and King Stork anyone?
The problem the two nats ( NI and SNP ) still havent faced up to is does their target Union actually want them ?
Most people in the Republic view NI as a socially divided basket case they're be out of their minds to take on. I can't see Scotland getting as warm a welcome as they might think. They are tinged with the british brush and currently the EU has more than enough on its plate than taking on another bunch of ingrates.
I don't get this "NI wants to join the EU" thing. NI doesn't want to be an independent country. The only way they remain they remain in the EU is as part of a United Ireland. Which isn't going to happen. And the main governing party in NI is anti EU anyway.
Now we've voted Leave - what EU related institutions do we still need to consider? ECHR? Is that just a case of repealing/amending our Human Rights Act?
When will the ECJ stop having a practical role? I presume many cases are trundling through the system.
Sigh.... repealing the ECHR has already been looked at after the election and was a non starter.
ECJ depends on the deal with the EU. If it's EEA then it will still be in the picture.
That's not true, we've been through this many times on here. EEA nations use the EFTA court and they only rule on trade matters. For everything else the supreme court is the highest arbiter in the land.
The EFTA court is bound by ECJ case law, which applies to all issues affecting the single market.
Not quite right. the EFTA court is bound by case law made prior to the establishment of the EEA. It is not bound by case law post that point although is expected to align its decisions with those of the ECJ.
And as Max has already pointed out the EFTA court on rules on those areas covered by the EEA agreement - about 9% of the total EU legislation. The rest lies outside the competence of the EEA and is decided by national courts.
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.
What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
I keep hearing people saying they respect the result. I don't and millions of others don't. There should have been a minimum of say 60% for such a significant one-way ticket that divides class, age and geography. I spit on the result.
Loser.
You prefer rigged elections then , move to Zimbabwe
Given the circumstances I'm being allowed some time on site, albeit dictated, I could get used to this Miss Moneypenny.
1. Congratulations to LEAVE. The people have spoken. The decision is clear.
2. Many apologies I got the result wrong. My ARSE was trending toward LEAVE but certainly wouldn't have moved to 52/48 to LEAVE, more likely the direct opposite. Essentially I underestimated turnout especially with WWC.
3. I'm very sorry to see Cameron go. Given the hand he was dealt in 2010 he proved to be an excellent Coalition PM. He gave us the referendum, rolled the dice for REMAIN and lost.
4. Next PM. It's May for me, anyone but Boris.
5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane.
6.Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around.
SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.
Fascinating. Surely it depends on #1 Nicola being able to secure continuity of the current UK opt outs #2 the UK leaving the EEA altogether. In those circumstances even someone like me who thinks of themselves as British first would tell you to go for it. But those are two enormous ifs to both come off.
Pensioners weren't intimidated. They just don't like immigrants. You tell me if that defines them as racist? I'd say it was a huge motivation and the prime reason Leave won. You may not agree.
As I've told you before writing waycist doesn't magically make everyone who points out bigotry wrong.. Fortunately it's still so side splittingly funny that doesn't matter though.
My mother was an immigrant, as was my father. My wife is an immigrant as is my brother's wife. So can you do me the decency when addressing us B.O.O.ers and STFU?
I suspect that the reason pensioners came out in their droves is that they remember the 1975 referendum and wanted to correct their error.
There's a nasty rant from Giles Coren in the Times about how he hates old people and they should be barred from voting.
Sorry Giles, it's my age cohort (40/50 year olds) that swung it to Leave.
I'd a glance at The Times online earlier - golly what a grief fest. I'll have a read of the comments a bit later, they're usually much more pro-Brexit than the articles.
I'm surprised the pages don't have a black border.
OTOH, Janice Turner really is on form. She reluctantly voted Remain, but makes much the same arguments as Twisted Fire Stopper.
Janice has made some excellent Brexit points - surprised she voted Remain in the end. Together with Rod Liddle, they've done themselves proud on the Labour side.
Gove will design it. Boris will sell it. During the course of this campaign Boris's shortcomings doubtless became obvious even to him. And he isn;t stupid enough to overplay his hand now.
After all, he beat David Cameron, who had every possible advantage on his side, and used them ruthlessly.
Given the circumstances I'm being allowed some time on site, albeit dictated, I could get used to this Miss Moneypenny.
1. Congratulations to LEAVE. The people have spoken. The decision is clear.
2. Many apologies I got the result wrong. My ARSE was trending toward LEAVE but certainly wouldn't have moved to 52/48 to LEAVE, more likely the direct opposite. Essentially I underestimated turnout especially with WWC.
3. I'm very sorry to see Cameron go. Given the hand he was dealt in 2010 he proved to be an excellent Coalition PM. He gave us the referendum, rolled the dice for REMAIN and lost.
4. Next PM. It's May for me, anyone but Boris.
5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane.
6.Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around.
SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.
Good to see you again Jack.
Looking at the results in Newham, Hounslow, Hillingdon, Slough, Sandwell, Birmingham and the Lancashire mill towns there must have been significant Asian support for Leave as well.
'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.
I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'
Yep, the Union is done. This wasn't just the English voting for a government the Scots didn't want; it was the English putting Scotland on a completely different and unalterable future trajectory that the Scots demonstrably don't want. The partnership, such as it was, is over.
What exactly was the meaning of voting to remain in the Union in 2014, other than an acceptance of being outvoted by the English in future decisions?
Something that was conceptual has become reality. I imagine that has concentrated a few minds.
My. Scottish friend tells me that one of the big issues is that the "NO" campaign in Sindy1 explicitly used the risk of Scotland being forced out of the EU if it went independent to suggest a "No" vote was the way to stay in the EU....
/edit sorry, I see precisely this point is already made below
Why Labour members give Corbyn such an easy time is quite beyond me. They should be furious. Nick's assumption that the only alternative to him is on the centre right is extraordinary. Is he really the best the centre left can do? This is not September 2015. Cameron is gone, the UK faces huge political and economic uncertainty. Millions of Labour voters and others need an effective opposition. I refuse to believe there is no-one better than Jeremy Corbyn to lead it.
Corbyn is - we believe, and I'm talking about members here - a decent man with an attractive project. I think that many members (quite possibly including Corbyn) would be open to persuasion if there was someone with obvious broader floating voter appeal with similar qualities. That's why McDonnell's stock has risen somewhat - he has more of the classic politician's technique, as Fox says: vigour and flexibility. Beyond him, the limited number of MPs who nominated Corbyn shows the limits of the pool.
And outside the pool, is anyone coming up with either an attractive project or broader appeal? What is the social democratic project these days? More vigorous europhilia? I'd like it, but it's not exactly a propitious moment for it, is it? More regionalism? Yawn. One very quickly ends up talking about personal background - Jarvis used to be a soldier, that sort of thing - which is fine as far as it goes but...
The centre-left needs both a specific leader and a specific project. Merely whinging about Corbyn isn't going to get them anywhere.
Corbyn may well be decent, but he's not very effective and is unable to deliver a Labour government.
Labour could very well have a jolly good time with him over the next 4 years. But it's all pointless in the end.
This might have been just about tolerable in usual circumstances, but not now.
I'd appreciate what you two think about Clive Lewis.
Lewis has potential. I'd like to see him fully proven on the front bench or leading a committee before the leadership (a prerequisite for all potential leaders IMO).
Now we've voted Leave - what EU related institutions do we still need to consider? ECHR? Is that just a case of repealing/amending our Human Rights Act?
When will the ECJ stop having a practical role? I presume many cases are trundling through the system.
Sigh.... repealing the ECHR has already been looked at after the election and was a non starter.
ECJ depends on the deal with the EU. If it's EEA then it will still be in the picture.
That's not true, we've been through this many times on here. EEA nations use the EFTA court and they only rule on trade matters. For everything else the supreme court is the highest arbiter in the land.
The EFTA court is bound by ECJ case law, which applies to all issues affecting the single market.
No, only for single market trade. Everything else comes back to us, and the EFTA court is not bound by ECJ rulings, at least in theory, in practice ECJ rulings on single market issues are normally not an issue, it is their overreach into common law and hum rights law that is worrying and something we no longer need to be concerned with.
Not so. We will be, de facto, part of the single market, so ECJ rulings would de facto apply here too. If we were an EEA member, for example, we would be obliged to apply EU trademark law and ECJ rulings on it in the UK. The same would apply to myriad other areas of law. The ECJ would have less jurisdiction, that is true, but it would still write plenty of our laws.
Only in instances where we trade with the single market would that be applicable. British companies who do business in the US apply for trademarks in the US under US law, I don't see the government rushing to implement US trademark law in the UK. British companies who do business in the EU will have to abide by EU law for the business they conduct there, it's only natural. Those who don't, wouldn't have to.
As regards the nationalism question across in Northern Ireland, this place isn't going to vote to part ways with the UK.
It will be a waste of money to even bother organising a poll and everyone here knows it.
Remarkably little sense of whats going on with Labour at the moment. Another story of rebellion and resignations but so far the attempts by MPs to get rid of Corbyn has been one of the worst political insurgencies seen in a while.
But if, Scotland splits from England, what does Northern Ireland want to be in a union with? There is no UK.
Let me assure you for most Ulster protestants, the Union means with Scotland and under the crown. They don't much care for England at all.
A Scottish / Ulster Federation with the Queen as head of state within the EU is my prediction.
Would the Scots seriously favour that? It would be hugely expensive for them as well.
Scotland's deficit is about £8bn. Northern Ireland's deficit is just under £10bn. And people say Brexit doesn't add up!
We would soon cut that £8B with no Trident and other fantasy fripperies we are forced to fund, ie London.
Why Labour members give Corbyn such an easy time is quite beyond me. They should be furious. Nick's assumption that the only alternative to him is on the centre right is extraordinary. Is he really the best the centre left can do? This is not September 2015. Cameron is gone, the UK faces huge political and economic uncertainty. Millions of Labour voters and others need an effective opposition. I refuse to believe there is no-one better than Jeremy Corbyn to lead it.
Corbyn is - we believe, and I'm talking about members here - a decent man with an attractive project. I think that many members (quite possibly including Corbyn) would be open to persuasion if there was someone with obvious broader floating voter appeal with similar qualities. That's why McDonnell's stock has risen somewhat - he has more of the classic politician's technique, as Fox says: vigour and flexibility. Beyond him, the limited number of MPs who nominated Corbyn shows the limits of the pool.
And outside the pool, is anyone coming up with either an attractive project or broader appeal? What is the social democratic project these days? More vigorous europhilia? I'd like it, but it's not exactly a propitious moment for it, is it? More regionalism? Yawn. One very quickly ends up talking about personal background - Jarvis used to be a soldier, that sort of thing - which is fine as far as it goes but...
The centre-left needs both a specific leader and a specific project. Merely whinging about Corbyn isn't going to get them anywhere.
Corbyn may well be decent, but he's not very effective and is unable to deliver a Labour government.
Labour could very well have a jolly good time with him over the next 4 years. But it's all pointless in the end.
This might have been just about tolerable in usual circumstances, but not now.
I'd appreciate what you two think about Clive Lewis.
Lewis has potential. I'd like to see him fully proven on the front bench or leading a committee before the leadership (a prerequisite for all potential leaders IMO).
Cameron was plucked from obscurity. Lewis would be acceptable to the membership too.
UKIP has destroyed the UK as a unitary state. It cannot have achieved its purpose.
Nope. The SNP. They can't or won't accept the result of a UK-wide referendum, less than two years after Scotland voted 55% to stay in the UK.
You don't get it do you, the people who were fooled have just realised that they count for nothing. Scotland gets what England wants whether they like it or not. Any moron looking at the arithmetic would have realised that , but instead 55% chose to listen to Tory lies. That will not be the case in the next one.
I agree Malcolm with one proviso,currency.IMO that's where indyref1 lost lat time.How do you think the SNP should approach this issue for indyref2? The Scottish Pound? The Euro?
Now we've voted Leave - what EU related institutions do we still need to consider? ECHR? Is that just a case of repealing/amending our Human Rights Act?
When will the ECJ stop having a practical role? I presume many cases are trundling through the system.
Sigh.... repealing the ECHR has already been looked at after the election and was a non starter.
ECJ depends on the deal with the EU. If it's EEA then it will still be in the picture.
That's not true, we've been through this many times on here. EEA nations use the EFTA court and they only rule on trade matters. For everything else the supreme court is the highest arbiter in the land.
The EFTA court is bound by ECJ case law, which applies to all issues affecting the single market.
No, only for single market trade. Everything else comes back to us, and the EFTA court is not bound by ECJ rulings, at least in theory, in practice ECJ rulings on single market issues are normally not an issue, it is their overreach into common law and hum rights law that is worrying and something we no longer need to be concerned with.
It depends what your issue is with the ECJ. If it's that it intrudes into too many areas, the EFTA court's reach is less because it deals with a subset of EU laws. If your issue is with an unaccountable supra national body delivering judgments on us, that principle is the same for both courts.
I can't stress enough how much the Better Together campaign played the 'loss of EU membership' card. Lots of No voters I know are doing some soul searching at the moment. Not all will come on board but given Yes Scotland got to 45% last time, if Sturgeon can stitch together a convincing deal, enough will.
I would agree with that. The only problem I see for Nicola (and again I need to remind people I am a pro-Scottish Independence Englishman so am on her side on this) is that events since the last referendum have not only confirmed the SNP fears about EU membership, they have also massively confirmed the Better Together fears about the economy. In the last 18 months - 2 years there have been 120,000 job losses in the UK Oil Industry. and the oil price is languishing down around $50 a barrel with no signs of moving north anytime soon.
I hope that Independence voters would see past that but the economy is certainly the big downside factor for the next independence vote.
Interesting to see how keen Europe is to get this over and done with now.
What legal routes to a quick process do they have, beyond offering favourable terms?
I think the current approach is to reduce European Council meetings to a purely nominal one-day meeting, then meet as the EC27 (ie not including the UK) in a separate room the next day. This is the arrangement for next week and presumably thereafter. In that sense we have *already* left the EU.
I assume when they've worked out what the deal is, they will let the UK know.
Why Labour members give Corbyn such an easy time is quite beyond me. They should be furious. Nick's assumption that the only alternative to him is on the centre right is extraordinary. Is he really the best the centre left can do? This is not September 2015. Cameron is gone, the UK faces huge political and economic uncertainty. Millions of Labour voters and others need an effective opposition. I refuse to believe there is no-one better than Jeremy Corbyn to lead it.
Corbyn is - we believe, and I'm talking about members here - a decent man with an attractive project. I think that many members (quite possibly including Corbyn) would be open to persuasion if there was someone with obvious broader floating voter appeal with similar qualities. That's why McDonnell's stock has risen somewhat - he has more of the classic politician's technique, as Fox says: vigour and flexibility. Beyond him, the limited number of MPs who nominated Corbyn shows the limits of the pool.
And outside the pool, is anyone coming up with either an attractive project or broader appeal? What is the social democratic project these days? More vigorous europhilia? I'd like it, but it's not exactly a propitious moment for it, is it? More regionalism? Yawn. One very quickly ends up talking about personal background - Jarvis used to be a soldier, that sort of thing - which is fine as far as it goes but...
The centre-left needs both a specific leader and a specific project. Merely whinging about Corbyn isn't going to get them anywhere.
Corbyn may well be decent, but he's not very effective and is unable to deliver a Labour government.
Labour could very well have a jolly good time with him over the next 4 years. But it's all pointless in the end.
This might have been just about tolerable in usual circumstances, but not now.
I'd appreciate what you two think about Clive Lewis.
Lewis has potential. I'd like to see him fully proven on the front bench or leading a committee before the leadership (a prerequisite for all potential leaders IMO).
Cameron was plucked from obscurity. Lewis would be acceptable to the membership too.
I accept Lewis would be a big step up from Corbyn, so I'd take him and vote for him. But I think there's better.
If Boris DOESN'T get PM, I wonder what sort of mood he will be in and how will he behave?!
Relief I would imagine.
He torched the building for the sake of his career, but he didn't really want a career trying to sweep up the ashes
It really would be interesting to know whether Boris made his decision on this referendum really thinking that Leave might win. I do wonder if his comment on an illegal immigrant amnesty near the end was a desperate attempt to throw away victory, and was let down by it almost completely ignored.
He actually voted at 9.30pm - must be almost unprecedented for a campaign leader to vote so late. Wonder if psychologist could make anything of that. He had allegedly conceded defeat before he had even voted himself!
I understand that he was in St Andrews in the morning watching his daughter graduate there.
'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.
I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'
Yep, I support the Union - but you really can't argue against any of that.
Scotland might be a bit less Pro change-of-masters when they realise that no only would they lose rUK funding but they would be asked to be a net contributor to the EU. King Log and King Stork anyone?
wee scaredy pants jonnie , peeing his pants in terror. It is cretins like you that caused it to be NO last time , and look where you have got us. We would also lose propping up the UK follies so net result would be more than positive to us.
Why Labour members give Corbyn such an easy time is quite beyond me. They should be furious. Nick's assumption that the only alternative to him is on the centre right is extraordinary. Is he really the best the centre left can do? This is not September 2015. Cameron is gone, the UK faces huge political and economic uncertainty. Millions of Labour voters and others need an effective opposition. I refuse to believe there is no-one better than Jeremy Corbyn to lead it.
Corbyn is - we believe, and I'm talking about members here - a decent man with an attractive project. I think that many members (quite possibly including Corbyn) would be open to persuasion if there was someone with obvious broader floating voter appeal with similar qualities. That's why McDonnell's stock has risen somewhat - he has more of the classic politician's technique, as Fox says: vigour and flexibility. Beyond him, the limited number of MPs who nominated Corbyn shows the limits of the pool.
And outside the pool, is anyone coming up with either an attractive project or broader appeal? What is the social democratic project these days? More vigorous europhilia? I'd like it, but it's not exactly a propitious moment for it, is it? More regionalism? Yawn. One very quickly ends up talking about personal background - Jarvis used to be a soldier, that sort of thing - which is fine as far as it goes but...
The centre-left needs both a specific leader and a specific project. Merely whinging about Corbyn isn't going to get them anywhere.
Corbyn may well be decent, but he's not very effective and is unable to deliver a Labour government.
Labour could very well have a jolly good time with him over the next 4 years. But it's all pointless in the end.
This might have been just about tolerable in usual circumstances, but not now.
I'd appreciate what you two think about Clive Lewis.
Lewis has potential. I'd like to see him fully proven on the front bench or leading a committee before the leadership (a prerequisite for all potential leaders IMO).
Cameron was plucked from obscurity. Lewis would be acceptable to the membership too.
Cameron, how did that work out? ;-)
Seriously, Cameron was hardly wet behind the ears and had 5 years to warm up as LoO. Even then, it took him two to become effective. Whoever is LoO now needs to be effective from day one.
Lewis is good. I could see him being a front bench star. A massive improvement on Corbyn if he did become leader.
I'm hearing you need free movement of people to have free trade with the EU, so does that mean there isn't any free trade with the US, Japan, India, Canada or Australia?
If so might this explain why the EU has done so badly relatively in the last 20 years?
People at the head of the EU have made the error of thinking that because we're geographically close then we need to be politically near.
Hammond seems surprisingly high on BF at 90 (next leader).
Has he ruled out standing?
He's given interviews saying this is not the best way forward and the job now is to limit the damage. So he's ruled himself out.
What about Fox? He came quite close in 2005.
Oh God, no thanks.
Explain?
Complete headbanger. He's the Tory Corbyn.
That doesn't sound a good enough reason for him not to go for it.
I'm no expert on internal Tory workings, but it seems to me that if Fox had got six more votes, and got into the last two, the members' vote would have been much closer, and a Fox win not impossible in 2005.
The first thing I would like to hear is a big bold generous offer to EU citizens already in the UK. I know their status hasn't been questioned by anyone but I think it's important to make them feel welcome and know they'll be able to stay.
I agree with that. A friend of my son's family is Dutch and they are about "85%" up to leave. Would be a disappointment for the school cricket team for a start. Their son is some player.
I'm hearing you need free movement of people to have free trade with the EU, so does that mean there isn't any free trade with the US, Japan, India, Canada or Australia?
If so might this explain why the EU has done so badly relatively in the last 20 years?
No, you don't. Canada has a relatively reasonable free goods trade deal with the EU, no free movement.
GDP growth in the EU is poor because Germany are sucking up much of the demand and providing not a lot of supply.
Oh right so the people that are saying that are just talking rot. Thanks.
Do people really believe that the EU was a fundamental issue in the Sindy ref? Brexit still feels like an excuse to have another referendum, not necessarily something that will change the outcome.
SNP still haven't remotely answered the economic case. I know people have said that Brexit proves that people will vote for heart over head, but that ignores a few points
1) The Scots didn't last time, by a large margin 2) The SNP haven't answered the key questions on currency etc. Brexit was purely about the relative extent to which our economy and trade would suffer. The Scottish questions were far more fundamental. 3) The polls suggested that most people didn't even believe the dire economic warnings about Brexit, so the extent to which they actually thought they were voting against their economic interests is questionable.
One other point - 38% of Scots voted to leave the EU. Whilst allowing for the possibility that some of these might have been "tactical" pro-Independence voters, that's a sizeable proportion in a referendum called on the back of Brexit. Unless Sturgeon can offer a cast iron guarantee that Sindy=back in the EU (and on reasonably favourable terms) I don't see why "Brexit against the Scottish will" should necessarily be enough.
''Dave's legacy is the UK out of the EU and an end to the Union. My word. And all because he was scared of a few right wing Tory MPs in 2013. ''
Mr Southam, take a step back. Look at the vast swathes of labour constituencies that stood up and voted in their millions for leave in this referendum.
The only conclusion is that Dave's referendum promise was a key component in his victory in 2015. More than even he thought. Many labour supporters would never vote for Dave, but maybe they stayed their hands in enough numbers for him to get enough power to deliver that vote.
Why? because voters have worked out that control of immigration in the modern interconnected world is a key power. Maybe the key power.
And they decided to take back control of it. And they are absolutely correct.
Postal votes lie behind Leaves success.Most of the postal votes were returned at the time when opinion poll support for Leave was at its highest.This and the tendency of older people to vote leave means that the estimated 10 million postal votes probably split 60:40 in favour of leave a lead of 2 million.looking at final votes it looks as if on polling day Remain probably carried the day 51:49 but this was not sufficient to offset leaves 2 million lead from postal votes. Does anyone know if the count has produced the exact postal non postal split?
I remember that on election night, quite early on in the BBC coverage, Paddy "Hat Eating" Ashdown raised this prospect but it was dismissed by Dimblebore and Curtis.
As a matter of interest why is the issue of postal votes an issue at all? Unless there has been fraud it's a totally legitimate way to vote, especially favouring older people. The idea that somehow 'postal votes' won it for leave is bizarre. People won it for leave.
And we can all go around citing this or that circumstance. Had Thomas Mair not shot Jo Cox there's a distinct possibility Leave would have won 55-45.
Well quite. People cast their postal votes when they've made up their mind. The idea that they "win it" for anyone never makes much sense to me. If Remain won on the day then that is only because postal voters cast their votes before the day. Other than those who died, they would have cast their vote on the day the same way.
Re the Ashcroft polling, I thought it was interesting to see *when* voters made up their mind.
They were roughly equal for both Remain and Leave from *more than a year ago* to *on the day*. *Last month* gobbled up the biggest proportion of the persuaded IIRC.
'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.
I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'
Given the circumstances I'm being allowed some time on site, albeit dictated, I could get used to this Miss Moneypenny.
1. Congratulations to LEAVE. The people have spoken. The decision is clear.
2. Many apologies I got the result wrong. My ARSE was trending toward LEAVE but certainly wouldn't have moved to 52/48 to LEAVE, more likely the direct opposite. Essentially I underestimated turnout especially with WWC.
3. I'm very sorry to see Cameron go. Given the hand he was dealt in 2010 he proved to be an excellent Coalition PM. He gave us the referendum, rolled the dice for REMAIN and lost.
4. Next PM. It's May for me, anyone but Boris.
5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane.
6.Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around.
SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.
Good to see you again Jack.
Looking at the results in Newham, Hounslow, Hillingdon, Slough, Sandwell, Birmingham and the Lancashire mill towns there must have been significant Asian support for Leave as well.
I too am gald to see Jack posting again. Welcome news.
I have some reason to believe long established immigrants and their second (and third etc) generations voted for Leave because they didn’t like East European immigrants. Same as their WWC neighbours.
Interesting to see how keen Europe is to get this over and done with now.
What legal routes to a quick process do they have, beyond offering favourable terms?
I think the current approach is to reduce European Council meetings to a purely nominal one-day meeting, then meet as the EC27 (ie not including the UK) in a separate room the next day. This is the arrangement for next week and presumably thereafter. In that sense we have *already* left the EU.
I assume when they've worked out what the deal is, they will let the UK know.
What legal protections are offered to EU members being excluded like this, or does the whole thing rely purely on good will and we have no protection from a shakedown by our 'partners' like this while still full members?
5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane.
6.Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around.
SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.
Comments
What legal routes to a quick process do they have, beyond offering favourable terms?
And outside the pool, is anyone coming up with either an attractive project or broader appeal? What is the social democratic project these days? More vigorous europhilia? I'd like it, but it's not exactly a propitious moment for it, is it? More regionalism? Yawn. One very quickly ends up talking about personal background - Jarvis used to be a soldier, that sort of thing - which is fine as far as it goes but...
The centre-left needs both a specific leader and a specific project. Merely whinging about Corbyn isn't going to get them anywhere.
ECJ depends on the deal with the EU. If it's EEA then it will still be in the picture.
Did you see the bits of Lexit the Movie featuring the FBU boss? He's not my cup of tea - but made the anti-EU case pretty well.
But I accept the result. We have to move on and find a policy as Ken Clarke has been saying. The question is what we do about a situation where the country is pretty much, give a % or 2, split in two? Indeed, it seems close enough to me, that there will probably be enough people with buyer's remorse within a month or two that we could re-run it and get a Remain result.
He is major supporter of Corbyn, so wouldn't move against Jeremy. But he has a great back story- fought in Afghanistan and Sandhurst trained. He also has a messianic following in Norwich. He is presentable, good looking and communicates easily.
Step forward Clive Lewis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNaSfK31Dxg
Plato, my puppy (still call her that although she's 6) has developed arthritis in her knee and back. She's on anti-inflammatories but is still in pain. Any suggestions apart from surgery?
Have to admit that I'm loving the reaction of "Liberal" Metrotossi who suddenly resemble a self-absorbed self-important self-satisfied Lady Bountiful with her nose so far in the air she just walked into a lamppost.
And we of course remember the Blessed Giles' Letter to the Subeditors:
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2008/jul/23/mediamonkey
"I don't really like people tinkering with my copy for the sake of tinkering. I do not enjoy the suggestion that you have a better ear or eye for how I want my words to read than I do. Owen, we discussed your turning three of my long sentences into six short ones in a single piece, and how that wasn't going to happen anymore, so I'm really hoping it wasn't you that fucked up my review on saturday."
We're throwing nuts at each other. As a Scot who voted strongly for the Union in 2014 I see that destiny disappearing
A second referendum would just deliver a bigger "out" vote.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/746636774823329792
Ideally, but we have yet to invoke 'Article-50', we should offer any non-UK passport resident carte-blanche to apply for a five-year 'right-to-remain' in the UK. The process must be complete by end-of-CY16 and proof-of-current-residency (council-tax; reputable landlord/employer) must be supplied as evidence (so passports will be required).
Intrusion into personal circumstances should be minimal: A digital-passport should be the minimum. The only requirement should be to become Subjects-of-Crown/UK-citizen and must be complete by CY21. This rule should be applied to all of those resident in England/UK (including 'illegals').
Saying he'd withdraw from the EPP, but delayed and delayed for 4yrs - only carrying it out when he needed to respond to backbench unhappiness.
Then again over his infamous Cast Iron guarantee - after 80 odd rebels signed a letter - he delayed and delayed.
Then he felt pressured into offering a referendum to stave off rebellions again/threat of UKIP - but didn't think he'd need to carry it out.
The whole piece just confirmed to me that it's all been window dressing that he didn't believe in. And as you say - he's been found out. No one who was a serious Eurosceptic would've accepted the dismal first offer and run the campaign he did.
Of course, many EU citizens living in the UK already qualify for UK citizenship.
(That was the only Conservatives In campaigning I saw though)
1. Congratulations to LEAVE. The people have spoken. The decision is clear.
2. Many apologies I got the result wrong. My ARSE was trending toward LEAVE but certainly wouldn't have moved to 52/48 to LEAVE, more likely the direct opposite. Essentially I underestimated turnout especially with WWC.
3. I'm very sorry to see Cameron go. Given the hand he was dealt in 2010 he proved to be an excellent Coalition PM. He gave us the referendum, rolled the dice for REMAIN and lost.
4. Next PM. It's May for me, anyone but Boris.
5. Corbyn should go too. A total tool. About as effective as a leader and potential PM as a fart in a hurricane.
6.Lastly and this will shock many but Scotland should now opt for independence. There I said it. The will of the Scottish people on the EU, a matter of the most crucial significance for the future, was clear. Hopefully it will be an amicable uncoupling. I would vote for YES in SINDY2, if still around.
SINDY2 should take place within 18 months and a YES vote take effect on the date of BREXIT two years after Article 50 is enabled or before 2020 whichever is sooner.
And we can all go around citing this or that circumstance. Had Thomas Mair not shot Jo Cox there's a distinct possibility Leave would have won 55-45.
I'm hearing you need free movement of people to have free trade with the EU, so does that mean there isn't any free trade with the US, Japan, India, Canada or Australia?
If so might this explain why the EU has done so badly relatively in the last 20 years?
PS hope your convalescence is swift.
The structures of the EU also force the UK into adopting privatisation and competition policies whether or not the people or the government like it.
Leaving will allow the government to govern, to carry through with its manifesto and deliver what it promises without being held back by the EU or being able to use the EU as an excuse.
So whatever the colour of the next government parliament will be sovereign, and I am very happy with that.
There's also the shafting of the people, the support of big business, bankers, other assorted fatcats and hangers on, TTIP and the total inability of the EU to organise a p up in a brewery when it comes to trying to deal with fundamental issues like the migrant crisis, carbon leakage or a fair voting system for Eurovision.
I realise that I have shared a bed with bigots and xenophobes to deliver Brexit, but I know that they are not about to form a government. So thanks for your votes, but Britain's future isn't your vision of the future.
Labour could very well have a jolly good time with him over the next 4 years. But it's all pointless in the end.
This might have been just about tolerable in usual circumstances, but not now.
Hope you recover fully soon and see you for POTUS 2016.
If he does make PM he is going to have to change....
Good luck.
Most people in the Republic view NI as a socially divided basket case they're be out of their minds to take on. I can't see Scotland getting as warm a welcome as they might think. They are tinged with the british brush and currently the EU has more than enough on its plate than taking on another bunch of ingrates.
GDP growth in the EU is poor because Germany are sucking up much of the demand and providing not a lot of supply.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNaSfK31Dxg
And as Max has already pointed out the EFTA court on rules on those areas covered by the EEA agreement - about 9% of the total EU legislation. The rest lies outside the competence of the EEA and is decided by national courts.
Edit: Good morning by the way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIwwh3qjYRw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Tb8Jo11uGo
* Head-bangers are welcome.
Gove will design it. Boris will sell it. During the course of this campaign Boris's shortcomings doubtless became obvious even to him. And he isn;t stupid enough to overplay his hand now.
After all, he beat David Cameron, who had every possible advantage on his side, and used them ruthlessly.
Looking at the results in Newham, Hounslow, Hillingdon, Slough, Sandwell, Birmingham and the Lancashire mill towns there must have been significant Asian support for Leave as well.
Boris has some work to do.
They cant get tbeir way so like spoilt children they *want* armaggedon.
Their hate of their fellow countrymen is no longer concealed.
/edit sorry, I see precisely this point is already made below
I hope that Independence voters would see past that but the economy is certainly the big downside factor for the next independence vote.
I assume when they've worked out what the deal is, they will let the UK know.
Have any of the people who mocked you apologised ?
Seriously, Cameron was hardly wet behind the ears and had 5 years to warm up as LoO. Even then, it took him two to become effective. Whoever is LoO now needs to be effective from day one.
Lewis is good. I could see him being a front bench star. A massive improvement on Corbyn if he did become leader.
I'm no expert on internal Tory workings, but it seems to me that if Fox had got six more votes, and got into the last two, the members' vote would have been much closer, and a Fox win not impossible in 2005.
SNP still haven't remotely answered the economic case. I know people have said that Brexit proves that people will vote for heart over head, but that ignores a few points
1) The Scots didn't last time, by a large margin
2) The SNP haven't answered the key questions on currency etc. Brexit was purely about the relative extent to which our economy and trade would suffer. The Scottish questions were far more fundamental.
3) The polls suggested that most people didn't even believe the dire economic warnings about Brexit, so the extent to which they actually thought they were voting against their economic interests is questionable.
One other point - 38% of Scots voted to leave the EU. Whilst allowing for the possibility that some of these might have been "tactical" pro-Independence voters, that's a sizeable proportion in a referendum called on the back of Brexit. Unless Sturgeon can offer a cast iron guarantee that Sindy=back in the EU (and on reasonably favourable terms) I don't see why "Brexit against the Scottish will" should necessarily be enough.
:yabah-dabah-doh:
Mr Southam, take a step back. Look at the vast swathes of labour constituencies that stood up and voted in their millions for leave in this referendum.
The only conclusion is that Dave's referendum promise was a key component in his victory in 2015. More than even he thought. Many labour supporters would never vote for Dave, but maybe they stayed their hands in enough numbers for him to get enough power to deliver that vote.
Why? because voters have worked out that control of immigration in the modern interconnected world is a key power. Maybe the key power.
And they decided to take back control of it. And they are absolutely correct.
They were roughly equal for both Remain and Leave from *more than a year ago* to *on the day*. *Last month* gobbled up the biggest proportion of the persuaded IIRC.
I have some reason to believe long established immigrants and their second (and third etc) generations voted for Leave because they didn’t like East European immigrants. Same as their WWC neighbours.
I agree on all 3 points.