Brexit just cannot work. It is similar to the problems of governance that Corbyn is having with the Parliamentary Labour Party. The faultlines are too great.
You cannot have an insurrectionist political movement that can govern an establishment that is 90% diametrically opposed to it. From mainstream politics, the media, academia, business....it is not that they are just opposed, they are appalled by the prospect of Brexit.
Corbyn's survival depends on Momentum taking control of the levers of power. Brexit doesn't have this.
The prospects for Brexit are grim indeed, on every level. 2 years from now a shattered Brexit leadership will be coming back to the UK with a humiliating 2nd vote after agreeing terms with Europe that are much worse than they are now. Like Cameron, they'll try and paint it as an achievement.
My mother was an immigrant, as was my father. My wife is an immigrant as is my brother's wife. So can you do me the decency when addressing us B.O.O.ers and STFU?
It's striking how many immigrants voted to pull up the drawbridge behind them
Interesting piece, David, for which, as always, many thanks. I do think what will happen to UKIP will be part of the general shakeout the LEAVE vote will produce in politics.
As far as the LDs are concerned, an interesting move by Tim Farron yesterday which drew the usual abuse from the usual suspects but is potentially quite clever. The LDs have always propsered when they have a single identifiable policy which sets them apart - Paddy's penny on income tax for education in 1992 and of course opposition to the Iraq War under the late Charles Kennedy.
Tim is, I think, seeking to make the LDs a reverse UKIP - the party's distinguishing policy from a post-Cameron Conservative Party and an uncertain Labour Party will be as the party campaigning to get us back into the EU.
This might start to look attractive if the likes of ScottP and Tyson are correct and LEAVE proves the economic disaster some were predicting or doesn't produce the changes some are hoping (immigration) but it will also need the EU to change and reform and become a more attractive option (immigration again).
Where I part company with this (as I'm doing a lot these days) is the whole EFTA scenario (which I've proposed for months) has to be given a chance of success. As the leading player of a revitalised EFTA, Britain has the opportunity to create the free market counterweight to the EU which the EU recognises as an existential threat but with which it will have to deal if other countries follow Britain out the door.
you're looking at the wrong thing. Of course reductions in benefits are going to hit recipients of benefits (although it was good that the richest also contributed more)
Trying to think of an allegory: it's like you are complaining that we are taking a bandage off a festering wound. That hurts, but the reason *why* we are doing it is to try and fix the underlying problem.
I don't have an answer for everything. But a few thoughts:
- more social housing but not on lifetime tenancies - better educationcat primary and secondary levels - stop forcing people to go to university / build up technical education as a viable and respected alternative - encourage firms to train / stop them using cheap imported Labour as a means to suppress wages - generous support for investment (capital allowances) and being back the patent box
Etc
Basically we need to recast the economy so people have the chance to get a worthwhile job, and can raise a family, own a home (or have knowledge they will have a home) and be respected / treated like adults.
On topic, UKIP has probably already hoovered up a chunk of labour support in the northern towns, and nationally just has to wait for the Tories to start compromising with the EU, then campaign against the government's "betrayal" of the people. If Boris's desired outcome is anywhere near the sorts of things he was letting slip earlier in the campaign, there will be lots of fertile territory.
I think that's right. Pursuing the disaffected rarely-voting WWC is very like pursuing the youth vote. Now and again they focus and you score (Brexit and Corbyn's election respectively) but most of the time they don't vote. By contrast, the inherent duality of the Brexit case means that even if Boris or whoever is as masterly as Mettenich, it will be literally impossible not to disappoint a lot of Brexit voters, and then UKIP looks the only option at present.
The absolute irony on Sky News paper review. Tim Montgomery 'I think we need to be re-assured what Mark Carney, the Bank of England Governor, is saying in making £250 billion pounds of liquidity available so the banking system continues to work'. I thought all the experts were wrong.
Yes, it's a matter of "listen to experts only if I say so".
One of the more worrying features of this result is that Labour still , West Yorkshire and Newcastle the Labour vote was absolutely rock-solid for leave. Surbiton, yesterday, was trying to argue against that and today I read that Corbyn was somehow to blame for this result by not mobilising Labour voters. Yet to take only the most stunning example I have noticed, Stoke-on-Trent (which has three Labour MPs who commanded just under 40% of all votes in the city last year on a 53% turnout) voted leave by 69.4% to 30.6% on a 65% turnout.
Many years ago, a friend of mine from Port Talbot, a socialist, told me he hated the EU because as a good socialist he stood up for 'our workers, not a bunch of shitty Eastern Europeans' (he subsequently married a Slovenian). Labour voters wanted out because they are the ones who have felt the fewest benefits from the EU. They are the ones who still struggle for housing, and still get low-paid jobs, and have a hard fight to get halfway decent healthcare and education when most of them are least well-equipped to navigate the labyrinthine minds and processes of the civil servants. Rightly or wrongly, mass migration is blamed for that, although we shouldn't forget either that many of them really do blame the EU for the destruction of the skilled manual jobs that paid good wages that gave them a decent life (Port Talbot explains the Valleys). This was not irrationality, or economic suicide. It was a perfectly reasonable study of the benefits and costs of EU membership to them personally. They believe it benefits bankers and lawyers, not steelworkers and potters.
I agree with you. However, the criticism of Corbyn is not that Labour voters were not mobilised, it is that by failing utterly to put the full weight of the Labour party machine behind the Remain campaign he allowed Leave a free run. Most importantly, that ended up in a victory for a cause that may well do significant harm to the people Labour is supposed to care about. In short, Corbyn failed to lead.
You're both spot on - ignoring their bedrock support and electing a catastrophically poor leader are their 2 key issues. Unfortunately for them, they're 'buoyed up' by a huge new membership which is largely Corbynite. They need to persuade him to stand down, otherwise they'll go through a massive public brawl, he might still emerge as the winner and then have to go into a GE they can't win.
They were "spinning" they wanted to get rid of her last week!
I'll be amazed if a Remain MP can win a Conservative leadership contest.
I think the candidates have to come from the Leave MPs. The most visible ones were Gove, Johnson, Patel and Leadsom. If I had a vote I'd support Ms Leadsom.
If May gets it I will be stunned. The most obvious piece of disingenuous triangulation ever by a politician should not be rewarded. Her 'pro EU' speech was worse than anything Corbyn did.
I think we can safely say that Osborne will not be standing. If he does try to, the interesting question will be whether he can find somebody stupid enough to second him.
Boris will certainly stand. But does anyone seriously think he will get more than 50 votes in the leadership election? I certainly don't. If Gove stands as well it would be fifty between them. Nobody likes them, nobody trusts them and everyone will remember that Ruth Davidson absolutely steamrollered them in the debates.
May and Hammond have both kept their heads down and are well placed to unite the party as reluctant remainers who are now happy to negotiate a deal to leave the EU. They are both senior politicians who are generally respected. However, May's chief success at the Home Office has been her extraordinary longevity, which is now set to exceed that of Chuter Ede (July 1945 - October 1951, six years four months) to be the longest serving Home Secretary of all time. How well she does will depend on whether that offsets her perceived failures on immigration.
The spoiler candidate, if there is one, could be Crabb. He is more personally popular than say, Soubry or Rudd, and more likely to be a unity candidate than Patel. If he got to the final two, he might spring a surprise. However, at this moment the membership may opt for experience, reliability and durability over potential.
So May, for any number of reasons, should be favourite. Hammond is well placed if she stumbles or the campaign turns on immigration. Crabb is a decent long shot.
It would be pleasant to think, if it happens, that the referendum result destroyed Cameron, Osborne, Gove and Johnson all in one fell swoop. Corbyn, Milne and Macdonnell would be the icing on the cake. The gain to British public life would be incalculable.
Do you think they'll be hiding the papers in Downing St. this morning? Safe to say they make for "grim" reading.
I do feel kind of sh*tty that lovely Sam Cam is upset though (according to the Mail she was at times "distressed" and at times in an "ice cold fury" on Thursday night)
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.
What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
Thats exactly what i was trying to say the other day - but you said it better
That is exactly the real question. More money for the better off to encourage them to work harder and less for the less well off to, well, make them work harder, we cannot go on like this.
We really can't. One of the good things about the referendum is that maybe a few more people are beginning to understand this. Casino_Royale has said it's opened his eyes.
I am not a believer in redistributive policies because I am some idealistic, guilt-ridden metropolitan. I believe in them because my life experience has shown me they work and because they are clearly in the interests of me and my family. We all have a stake in creating a society that is seen to work for all its constituent parts. A society that works only for the best off is going to fail at some stage. Immigration clearly plays a part in that, but we have to go much, much further. And it cannot wait. Millions and millions of people feel totally alienated from the country we have become.
They were "spinning" they wanted to get rid of her last week!
I'll be amazed if a Remain MP can win a Conservative leadership contest.
I think the candidates have to come from the Leave MPs. The most visible ones were Gove, Johnson, Patel and Leadsom. If I had a vote I'd support Ms Leadsom.
As long as the Remainer hasn't ruined his or her reputation during the campaign and is solid in recognising Leave's mandate, it won't matter. Trust in ability in the future will matter more than stance in the past.
They were "spinning" they wanted to get rid of her last week!
I'll be amazed if a Remain MP can win a Conservative leadership contest.
I think the candidates have to come from the Leave MPs. The most visible ones were Gove, Johnson, Patel and Leadsom. If I had a vote I'd support Ms Leadsom.
As a non Tory, Leadsom is the least worst. Gove would alienate broader public support and having been at University with Pritl Patel, I have to tell you she's not all that bright.
I was under the impression David Cameron said he would issue Article 50 notification inmediately. I'm glad he is waiting until post-October, but it does show he was scaremongering during the campaign.
As the Conservative Party starts to calm down, its Euro-boil having been lanced, Labour's troubles have been rubbed to the quick....
I'm far from convinced the Conservatives have lanced anything. There remains a sizeable pro-EU dissident group within the Parliamentary party and the membership and we also have to endure the worst beauty contest of all time as the victorious LEAVE faction preens round the country trying to persuade an electorate the size of a small town which of them should run a country of 65 million people.
The runners and riders for this handicap for 3 year olds of all ages haven't yet been declared but in terms of quality an all weather seller looks an attractive proposition.
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.
What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
I agree this alienation probably did win it for Leave. It's real and it's been building up over years. I hoped for a Remain win and hoped that government and others in charge would think about ways of supporting those left behind by competition and globalisation. Maybe a forlorn hope, but if those elites had the same insights as you do they wouldn't have lost the referendum.
Unfortunately, as with all inchoate rebellions, this one is counterproductive. Britain will be poorer for Brexit and the most vulnerable will as always be hit hardest. Politicians will be inward looking, fighting partisan battles and tied up in separation issues. No-one will be working towards the bigger picture. There will be further constitutional stresses with a possible disintegration of our own Union, which will diminish us all further. And it has to be said, the elites who ar e at the root of this, who do well out of the EU and globalisation generally, will be in the worst possible mood to reach out to those that have given them a kicking.
As much as I dislike the political right I'm not having them take all the blame for us leaving the EU. British Europhiles need to take a long hard look at themselves. Whatever you think of the federalist elites on the continent at least they actually believe in the European Union as it is. Very few of the most prominent Europhiles in Britain could that be said of. The approach over a generation has been to get ourselves on the inside in order to change it. Almost no major politician I can think of has said we want to be inside because we share a great deal in common with these people. The argument instead is that these people happen to be our neighbours, we do a lot of business with them and so even if we don't really have anything in common with them we ought to try and get along for economic reasons. The pretence of a European demos isn't even entertained.
In short the British Europhile project has simply seen EU membership as part and parcel of globalisation. If we're going to be an outward looking free trading nation it makes sense to be politically engaged with our nearest neighbours. Well the parts of the country that feel left behind by the modern economy have revolted. I think they are wrong but I don't really blame them for it. There is too of course the issue of democracy.
I'd largely agree with that analysis. The Remain campaign majored very heavily on the economic case - and that didn't mean much of anything for those with little.
The case made by Leave about *taking back control*, and restoring some national pride chimed - it offered something to feel good about/a chance to kick the buggers where it hurts and maybe improve their own lot along the way. They were sick of being done-to.
I was under the impression David Cameron said he would issue Article 50 notification inmediately. I'm glad he is waiting until post-October, but it does show he was scaremongering during the campaign.
He is not doing it at all. He is leaving it for his successor
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.
What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
I was thinking about this last night, when it became plain how many on the Remain side still didn't get it.
The airwaves are full of astonished metropolitan/AB types who simply can't believe it. Their tone in particular is very telling - the almost reflexive insulting descriptions. Labour spent 5yrs lying to themselves that they didn't spend too much, and immigration wasn't an issue. And got walloped on the arse by the electorate.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975. And they meant it. They weren't more stupid - they made a rational choice based on their values and their lives.
Whilst I can fully appreciated that some are upset by not getting their way - it'll be interesting to see if/when they begin to understand why they lost.
Do you ever make a post hat doesn't contain the word "metropolitan" somewhere? I'm not sure what you have against well educated city dwellers (perhaps they're too close to experts?). Either way, it's no better than calling leave voters Little Englanders.
As far as the LDs are concerned, an interesting move by Tim Farron yesterday which drew the usual abuse from the usual suspects but is potentially quite clever. The LDs have always propsered when they have a single identifiable policy which sets them apart - Paddy's penny on income tax for education in 1992 and of course opposition to the Iraq War under the late Charles Kennedy.
Tim is, I think, seeking to make the LDs a reverse UKIP - the party's distinguishing policy from a post-Cameron Conservative Party and an uncertain Labour Party will be as the party campaigning to get us back into the EU.
Farron is misguided. If the LDs have a route back (big if) it is through local government, not the EU.
They are still toxic at the national level. They are responsible for putting Dave in number 10. They promised their own in-out referendum. As such they own their fair share of Brexit.
If they need to do anything in national politics, it is to repeatedly say sorry or go away until people forget about them and then come back.
If Theresa May won she would have to lead us out of the ECHR, I think. Otherwise the U-turn would be too humiliating. It surprises me that pro-EU Tories would back this.
If May gets it I will be stunned. The most obvious piece of disingenuous triangulation ever by a politician should not be rewarded. Her 'pro EU' speech was worse than anything Corbyn did.
Boris should get the job. He shouldn't be let off the hook.
They were "spinning" they wanted to get rid of her last week!
I'll be amazed if a Remain MP can win a Conservative leadership contest.
I think the candidates have to come from the Leave MPs. The most visible ones were Gove, Johnson, Patel and Leadsom. If I had a vote I'd support Ms Leadsom.
As long as the Remainer hasn't ruined his or her reputation during the campaign and is solid in recognising Leave's mandate, it won't matter. Trust in ability in the future will matter more than stance in the past.
In 2001 the conservative membership were given a choice between pro-EU Ken Clarke, and anti-EU IDS. IDS won.
I don't know if anyone remembers the 2010 general election and David Cameron's pledge to govern for 'the great ignored' but it feels quite apt now. The great ignored seem to have come back and bitten him on the backside.
In my constituency, on the edge of Liverpool with a rock-solid 20,000 Labour majority, we voted 58% Leave. That can only have been Labour voters.
I have sympathy for some of the Remainers. The EU isn't all bad, but learning to accept defeat is a problem for some younger voters. They flee to their safe space after discovering they can't no-platform the "racists", who despite being told how rancid they are, persisted in voting for what they believed.
Denial = petition for another referendum as they don't think this one counts. Can the next one have just one option, please?
Anger = The country is filled with thick racists. A violent demonstration in Islington will bring everyone to their senses, or else.
Bargaining = The EU will present an associate scheme and give us it all back.
Depression = What's the point of staying? I'm leaving now!
Acceptance = I'll vote SWP next time and we'll become Venezuela with open borders. The EU won't matter anymore.
Sorry if these points have already been made, I've not had a chance to catch up on the comments yet.
1. The news channels found it easy to visit hipster Remain areas and working class Leave areas yesterday. What they didn't do was find Tory areas that were Remain or Leave. Understanding where that divide truly lies in the Tory vote is important especially to how different constituencies will respond to the new PM come 2020.
2. Who on the Labour Remain side really covered themselves in glory during the campaign. It is easy to point the finger at Corbyn, who wasn't really committed anyway, but which of the true euro-enthusiasts can really say they gave it 100%?
Two good points. I certainly read several reports of pro-Remain MPs not campaigning at all - even in their own seats for fear of what could happen at the ballot box next time.
I looked up my own council area last night - 31k Leave 22k Remain, 74.5% TO. It's a very tight marginal Tory over LD. The whole SE matches the national picture of 52/48.
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.
What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
I agree this alienation probably did win it for Leave. It's real and it's been building up over years. I hoped for a Remain win and hoped that government and others in charge would think about ways of supporting those left behind by competition and globalisation. Maybe a forlorn hope, but if those elites had the same insights as you do they wouldn't have lost the referendum.
Unfortunately, as with all inchoate rebellions, this one is counterproductive. Britain will be poorer for Brexit and the most vulnerable will as always be hit hardest. Politicians will be inward looking, fighting partisan battles and tied up in separation issues. No-one will be working towards the bigger picture. There will be further constitutional stresses with a possible disintegration of our own Union, which will diminish us all further. And it has to be said, the elites who ar e at the root of this, who do well out of the EU and globalisation generally, will be in the worst possible mood to reach out to those that have given them a kicking.
This makes me sad.
Good post. The Leave leaders will now move on from the voters who delivered them victory. They don't need a majority any more, they need 37%. Look after pensioners, keep house prices high, point at Corbyn and that's another five years in the bag. It's clear now that the only real way to bring about fundamental change and to ensure all voices are heard is to have a new voting system. That ain't gonna happen.
If May gets it I will be stunned. The most obvious piece of disingenuous triangulation ever by a politician should not be rewarded. Her 'pro EU' speech was worse than anything Corbyn did.
Boris should get the job. He shouldn't be let off the hook.
Indeed Boris has a clear mandate to deliver a weekly hospital. He should get on with it. He will be very popular.
They were "spinning" they wanted to get rid of her last week!
I'll be amazed if a Remain MP can win a Conservative leadership contest.
I think the candidates have to come from the Leave MPs. The most visible ones were Gove, Johnson, Patel and Leadsom. If I had a vote I'd support Ms Leadsom.
As long as the Remainer hasn't ruined his or her reputation during the campaign and is solid in recognising Leave's mandate, it won't matter. Trust in ability in the future will matter more than stance in the past.
I imagine the campaign will focus a lot on the plan for the renegotiation, which will reinforce the emphasis on trust/"safe pair of hands" etc. Very easy to say "I supported remaining, but I accept the verdict of the British people and now it's about getting the best deal possible".
I was under the impression David Cameron said he would issue Article 50 notification inmediately. I'm glad he is waiting until post-October, but it does show he was scaremongering during the campaign.
I don't really think that this can be considered "scaremongering". The point was that it was the best way to make clear that "Leave means OUT". Saying that it wouldn't be invoked immediately would allow people to believe that there was scope for reversing the result after the event.
What has become clear about "Project Fear" is that it neglected sufficiently to address the most important issue- fear that Remain might actually lose.
If May gets it I will be stunned. The most obvious piece of disingenuous triangulation ever by a politician should not be rewarded. Her 'pro EU' speech was worse than anything Corbyn did.
Boris should get the job. He shouldn't be let off the hook.
Indeed Boris has a clear mandate to deliver a weekly hospital. He should get on with it. He will be very popular.
Don't forget the higher wages, cheaper housing and no tax rises. What with all that, plus substantially less immigration and a string of brilliant trade deals Boris is going to be the most popular PM we have ever had :-D
you're looking at the wrong thing. Of course reductions in benefits are going to hit recipients of benefits (although it was good that the richest also contributed more)
Trying to think of an allegory: it's like you are complaining that we are taking a bandage off a festering wound. That hurts, but the reason *why* we are doing it is to try and fix the underlying problem.
I don't have an answer for everything. But a few thoughts:
- more social housing but not on lifetime tenancies - better educationcat primary and secondary levels - stop forcing people to go to university / build up technical education as a viable and respected alternative - encourage firms to train / stop them using cheap imported Labour as a means to suppress wages - generous support for investment (capital allowances) and being back the patent box
Etc
Basically we need to recast the economy so people have the chance to get a worthwhile job, and can raise a family, own a home (or have knowledge they will have a home) and be respected / treated like adults.
My thoughts are:
-use our tax system to incentivise training by, for example, allowing double the cost to be set off. -Get our college system back to training real skills for specific jobs that actually exist rather than meaningless courses with no economic value. Involve local employers much more closely. -Seriously invest in social housing funded by long term bonds making use of current interest rates. It is more debt but it is necessary. -a tax target of equiperating income taxes and capital taxes which allow the wealthy to avoid paying their share of the benefits that society gives them. -Drive through Universal Credit but as a means to addressing the absurdities of our welfare system, not as a means of cutting the costs of it.
Pretty similar to yours, with which I do not disagree. Who is going to deliver such a platform? Gove (as Chancellor) surely has to be the best bet.
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.
What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
They were "spinning" they wanted to get rid of her last week!
I'll be amazed if a Remain MP can win a Conservative leadership contest.
I think the candidates have to come from the Leave MPs. The most visible ones were Gove, Johnson, Patel and Leadsom. If I had a vote I'd support Ms Leadsom.
having been at University with Pritl Patel, I have to tell you she's not all that bright.
Can you tell us anything about her character? What sort of person she is?
In my constituency, on the edge of Liverpool with a rock-solid 20,000 Labour majority, we voted 58% Leave. That can only have been Labour voters.
Thank you for the information. I hadn't looked at the Liverpool results in detail, just looked at the dash of Yellow on the map and made assumptions. I was too busy gawping at the results in Staffordshire, Sunderland and the North of England generally. I imagine (from zero knowledge as I have only been there once) much the same problems apply in Liverpool as elsewhere though, with much the same result.
Yet the Cotswolds, which has stayed loyally Tory for a hundred years and where Labour voters are rarer than a steak cooked with a pocket torch, was for remain! That's the wealthier incomers from London, at a guess (who would also be mostly Tory) and possibly also Oxford.
you're looking at the wrong thing. Of course reductions in benefits are going to hit recipients of benefits (although it was good that the richest also contributed more)
Trying to think of an allegory: it's like you are complaining that we are taking a bandage off a festering wound. That hurts, but the reason *why* we are doing it is to try and fix the underlying problem.
I don't have an answer for everything. But a few thoughts:
- more social housing but not on lifetime tenancies - better educationcat primary and secondary levels - stop forcing people to go to university / build up technical education as a viable and respected alternative - encourage firms to train / stop them using cheap imported Labour as a means to suppress wages - generous support for investment (capital allowances) and being back the patent box
Etc
Basically we need to recast the economy so people have the chance to get a worthwhile job, and can raise a family, own a home (or have knowledge they will have a home) and be respected / treated like adults.
Yes, we do. Leaving the single market will make all that more difficult, especially if government tax take falls.
If May gets it I will be stunned. The most obvious piece of disingenuous triangulation ever by a politician should not be rewarded. Her 'pro EU' speech was worse than anything Corbyn did.
Boris should get the job. He shouldn't be let off the hook.
Indeed Boris has a clear mandate to deliver a weekly hospital. He should get on with it. He will be very popular.
I thought the Leave campaign commitment was to £100m a week on the NHS? I always took the "as much a hospital a week" as being the equivalent of measuring distances in terms of London buses.
Surely UKIP's role will be to capture the furious, disappointed leave voters when the deal is struck with the EU that allows free movement to continue almost the same as it is now.
OK, here's the deal. The PLP guarantee that a Corbynite candidate gets sufficient nominations to make it on to the ballot, and Jezza steps down. Then we see 'Spawn of Corbyn' v Benn v Jarvis v Chuka v Liz mk 2 and the membership make a choice.
I was under the impression David Cameron said he would issue Article 50 notification inmediately. I'm glad he is waiting until post-October, but it does show he was scaremongering during the campaign.
I don't really think that this can be considered "scaremongering". The point was that it was the best way to make clear that "Leave means OUT". Saying that it wouldn't be invoked immediately would allow people to believe that there was scope for reversing the result after the event.
What has become clear about "Project Fear" is that it neglected sufficiently to address the most important issue- fear that Remain might actually lose.
I thought it was a "it will be a rush to two years and we'll get a bad deal" argument.
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.
What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
UKIP has destroyed the UK as a unitary state. It cannot have achieved its purpose.
Nope. The SNP. They can't or won't accept the result of a UK-wide referendum, less than two years after Scotland voted 55% to stay in the UK.
You don't get it do you, the people who were fooled have just realised that they count for nothing. Scotland gets what England wants whether they like it or not. Any moron looking at the arithmetic would have realised that , but instead 55% chose to listen to Tory lies. That will not be the case in the next one.
They were "spinning" they wanted to get rid of her last week!
I'll be amazed if a Remain MP can win a Conservative leadership contest.
I think the candidates have to come from the Leave MPs. The most visible ones were Gove, Johnson, Patel and Leadsom. If I had a vote I'd support Ms Leadsom.
As long as the Remainer hasn't ruined his or her reputation during the campaign and is solid in recognising Leave's mandate, it won't matter. Trust in ability in the future will matter more than stance in the past.
In 2001 the conservative membership were given a choice between pro-EU Ken Clarke, and anti-EU IDS. IDS won.
That was (1) in opposition, where IDS could be (and was) replaced before it really mattered and (2) specifically to stop a vote on the Euro, which the party believed - rightly, IMO - Blair would have otherwise called and quite probably won; the tactical advantage of splitting the Tory leader from his party proving irresistable. Different dynamics this time.
you're looking at the wrong thing. Of course reductions in benefits are going to hit recipients of benefits (although it was good that the richest also contributed more)
Trying to think of an allegory: it's like you are complaining that we are taking a bandage off a festering wound. That hurts, but the reason *why* we are doing it is to try and fix the underlying problem.
I don't have an answer for everything. But a few thoughts:
- more social housing but not on lifetime tenancies - better educationcat primary and secondary levels - stop forcing people to go to university / build up technical education as a viable and respected alternative - encourage firms to train / stop them using cheap imported Labour as a means to suppress wages - generous support for investment (capital allowances) and being back the patent box
Etc
Basically we need to recast the economy so people have the chance to get a worthwhile job, and can raise a family, own a home (or have knowledge they will have a home) and be respected / treated like adults.
Yes, we do. Leaving the single market will make all that more difficult, especially if government tax take falls.
On the other hand UK gilt yields are at just 1.08% for 10 year paper. Hopefully the new chancellor will use the opportunity to raise money and invest it in education.
So Farage thinks (now the campaign is safely over) that the £350 million a day claim was a mistake. Daniel Hannan says actually immigrants will still come in to take jobs just as much as before. We just need a Leave leader to admit Turkey isn't joining the EU and, bingo, it's full house: All our claims were false, but enjoy the post-Brexit dawn.
BTW when will Boris Johnson go on TV to apologise for the Brexit recession, as he said he would do? Or will he pretend like Jacob Rees-Mogg that it is merely a coincidence?
To be fair, the Brexit trio in the final debate declined to promise a reduction in immigration numbers (Leadsom looked shifty and wittered about something else) - I said at the time that it was a huge mistake that the Remain trio didn't scrap their prepared remarks to seize on that. But at least the Brexiteers were honest by omission there.
you're looking at the wrong thing. Of course reductions in benefits are going to hit recipients of benefits (although it was good that the richest also contributed more)
Trying to think of an allegory: it's like you are complaining that we are taking a bandage off a festering wound. That hurts, but the reason *why* we are doing it is to try and fix the underlying problem.
I don't have an answer for everything. But a few thoughts:
- more social housing but not on lifetime tenancies - better educationcat primary and secondary levels - stop forcing people to go to university / build up technical education as a viable and respected alternative - encourage firms to train / stop them using cheap imported Labour as a means to suppress wages - generous support for investment (capital allowances) and being back the patent box
Etc
Basically we need to recast the economy so people have the chance to get a worthwhile job, and can raise a family, own a home (or have knowledge they will have a home) and be respected / treated like adults.
Yes, we do. Leaving the single market will make all that more difficult, especially if government tax take falls.
On the other hand UK gilt yields are at just 1.08% for 10 year paper. Hopefully the new chancellor will use the opportunity to raise money and invest it in education.
As regards the nationalism question across in Northern Ireland, this place isn't going to vote to part ways with the UK.
It will be a waste of money to even bother organising a poll and everyone here knows it.
Remarkably little sense of whats going on with Labour at the moment. Another story of rebellion and resignations but so far the attempts by MPs to get rid of Corbyn has been one of the worst political insurgencies seen in a while.
UKIP has destroyed the UK as a unitary state. It cannot have achieved its purpose.
Nope. The SNP. They can't or won't accept the result of a UK-wide referendum, less than two years after Scotland voted 55% to stay in the UK.
You don't get it do you, the people who were fooled have just realised that they count for nothing. Scotland gets what England wants whether they like it or not. Any moron looking at the arithmetic would have realised that , but instead 55% chose to listen to Tory lies. That will not be the case in the next one.
Agreed. It is ludicrous for people to point back to the last Scotland Independence referendum. It is totally irrelevant now.
They were "spinning" they wanted to get rid of her last week!
I'll be amazed if a Remain MP can win a Conservative leadership contest.
I think the candidates have to come from the Leave MPs. The most visible ones were Gove, Johnson, Patel and Leadsom. If I had a vote I'd support Ms Leadsom.
I'd prefer Gove, but since he repeatedly rejected running - I'd choose Leadsom too.
"it's no better than calling leave voters Little Englanders."
According to the OED ... Metropolitan means "Relating to or denoting a metropolis." I think urban is less specific but also less meaningful. What exactly is wrong with metropolitan?
I agree this alienation probably did win it for Leave. It's real and it's been building up over years. I hoped for a Remain win and hoped that government and others in charge would think about ways of supporting those left behind by competition and globalisation. Maybe a forlorn hope, but if those elites had the same insights as you do they wouldn't have lost the referendum.
Unfortunately, as with all inchoate rebellions, this one is counterproductive. Britain will be poorer for Brexit and the most vulnerable will as always be hit hardest. Politicians will be inward looking, fighting partisan battles and tied up in separation issues. No-one will be working towards the bigger picture. There will be further constitutional stresses with a possible disintegration of our own Union, which will diminish us all further. And it has to be said, the elites who ar e at the root of this, who do well out of the EU and globalisation generally, will be in the worst possible mood to reach out to those that have given them a kicking.
This makes me sad.
There are undoubtedly a lot of problems to face and in the very short term Brexit is more likely to add to these than reduce them. The priority is getting a working relationship with the EU sorted out quickly to reduce that uncertainty but it seems unlikely that can really begin until October when the Conservatives have new leadership. Maybe the gap in time will allow heads to cool a bit on both sides.
I still want an EEA type arrangement with the EU but with the safeguard that there are limits on immigration. I think that is doable because it is clearly in both sides interests. I accept that the EU in particular has a broader agenda because there must be a real fear now it could fall apart. This is nothing to gloat about because it is not in our interests and will make our negotiations harder.
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.
What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
They were "spinning" they wanted to get rid of her last week!
I'll be amazed if a Remain MP can win a Conservative leadership contest.
I think the candidates have to come from the Leave MPs. The most visible ones were Gove, Johnson, Patel and Leadsom. If I had a vote I'd support Ms Leadsom.
As long as the Remainer hasn't ruined his or her reputation during the campaign and is solid in recognising Leave's mandate, it won't matter. Trust in ability in the future will matter more than stance in the past.
In 2001 the conservative membership were given a choice between pro-EU Ken Clarke, and anti-EU IDS. IDS won.
That was (1) in opposition, where IDS could be (and was) replaced before it really mattered and (2) specifically to stop a vote on the Euro, which the party believed - rightly, IMO - Blair would have otherwise called and quite probably won; the tactical advantage of splitting the Tory leader from his party proving irresistable. Different dynamics this time.
Ken Clarke was considered to be a popular politician, and had been a competent Chancellor. IDS was only known for his opposition to Maastrict.
I have no insider knowledge on this, but I think being a Remain supporter is going to be a deal breaker for Conservative Party members.
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.
What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
Leave won. Leave has to deliver. It's Leave's game now. That's not whinging. It's a statement of fact. The floor is yours. Start dancing!
This is actually why I'm surprised that anyone is looking to run against Boris. We know that a lot of the Leave plans were bullshit. I'm not bothered because in politics you have to be ruthless and win by any means necessary, the remain side did the same. I just dont get why anyone doesn't want to let Boris own it all.
And Cameron now has his just deserts. But if people are dumb enough to elect Cameron then they probably will be dumb enough to elect Johnstone. Luckily we likely won't be around for you to blame any more for your spectacularly bad political choices!
More seriously Milliband managed to lose the election by his own total ineptitude. There are few signs that Labour leadership is improving!
The SNP was seen as the anti-establishment party in scotland, but outside of it is regarded as a fascist party. The fear of SNP rule in a coalition with Labour drove people to the Tories for protection in the last election.
But the SNP's rainbow coalition is straining, ironically now that SLAB have been thrown out they are regarded as the evil establishment, and that is starting to fuel the Tories in scotland.
You obviously know hee haw about Scotland. Tories are hated with a vengeance, they are going nowhere. If they shed their London sock puppet tag and became a real Scottish party then they may do something in the distant future, for the present they are a SMALL bunch of losers.
They were "spinning" they wanted to get rid of her last week!
I'll be amazed if a Remain MP can win a Conservative leadership contest.
I think the candidates have to come from the Leave MPs. The most visible ones were Gove, Johnson, Patel and Leadsom. If I had a vote I'd support Ms Leadsom.
I'd prefer Gove, but since he repeatedly rejected running - I'd choose Leadsom too.
Surely both should be ruled out due to their expertise. Leadsom worked in the City. That has to be a real no-no.
I was under the impression David Cameron said he would issue Article 50 notification inmediately. I'm glad he is waiting until post-October, but it does show he was scaremongering during the campaign.
I don't really think that this can be considered "scaremongering". The point was that it was the best way to make clear that "Leave means OUT". Saying that it wouldn't be invoked immediately would allow people to believe that there was scope for reversing the result after the event.
What has become clear about "Project Fear" is that it neglected sufficiently to address the most important issue- fear that Remain might actually lose.
I thought it was a "it will be a rush to two years and we'll get a bad deal" argument.
That may have been the Leave argument against invoking immediately, but clearly Cameron wasn't saying that in the event of a Leave vote he would take steps to ensure that the UK got a bad deal.
As regards the nationalism question across in Northern Ireland, this place isn't going to vote to part ways with the UK.
It will be a waste of money to even bother organising a poll and everyone here knows it.
Remarkably little sense of whats going on with Labour at the moment. Another story of rebellion and resignations but so far the attempts by MPs to get rid of Corbyn has been one of the worst political insurgencies seen in a while.
But if, Scotland splits from England, what does Northern Ireland want to be in a union with? There is no UK.
Let me assure you for most Ulster protestants, the Union means with Scotland and under the crown. They don't much care for England at all.
A Scottish / Ulster Federation with the Queen as head of state within the EU is my prediction.
If Boris DOESN'T get PM, I wonder what sort of mood he will be in and how will he behave?! It isn't exaggerating too much to suggest that he is almost single-handedly responsibile for what could prove to have been a catastrophic decision, which the evidence indicates is probably close to the opposite of what he actually believes (insofar as he believes anything, of course)....
@inglesi: Next Wednesday, 27 leaders will meet to discuss Brexit, without Cameron. EU taking control.. https://t.co/MddALJ8iSQ
I don't know why anybody is either surprised by this, or considers it a bad thing. Those who expect Britain to be sitting in on the formulation of the EU position will presumably be very confused when we don't invite Juncker to sit in on ours.
you're looking at the wrong thing. Of course reductions in benefits are going to hit recipients of benefits (although it was good that the richest also contributed more)
Trying to think of an allegory: it's like you are complaining that we are taking a bandage off a festering wound. That hurts, but the reason *why* we are doing it is to try and fix the underlying problem.
I don't have an answer for everything. But a few thoughts:
- more social housing but not on lifetime tenancies - better educationcat primary and secondary levels - stop forcing people to go to university / build up technical education as a viable and respected alternative - encourage firms to train / stop them using cheap imported Labour as a means to suppress wages - generous support for investment (capital allowances) and being back the patent box
Etc
Basically we need to recast the economy so people have the chance to get a worthwhile job, and can raise a family, own a home (or have knowledge they will have a home) and be respected / treated like adults.
My thoughts are:
-use our tax system to incentivise training by, for example, allowing double the cost to be set off. -Get our college system back to training real skills for specific jobs that actually exist rather than meaningless courses with no economic value. Involve local employers much more closely. -Seriously invest in social housing funded by long term bonds making use of current interest rates. It is more debt but it is necessary. -a tax target of equiperating income taxes and capital taxes which allow the wealthy to avoid paying their share of the benefits that society gives them. -Drive through Universal Credit but as a means to addressing the absurdities of our welfare system, not as a means of cutting the costs of it.
Pretty similar to yours, with which I do not disagree. Who is going to deliver such a platform? Gove (as Chancellor) surely has to be the best bet.
Sound pretty similar (mine certainly wsdnt exhaustive)
Gove as Chancellor. May possibly as leader? There is a scarcity of good choices.
Actually I was paying attention. It was £100 million a week for the NHS.
It was both. As I mentioned yesterday, I was distributing those leaflets with the £350 million figure and the quote from Gisela, and I knew it was bollocks.
They were "spinning" they wanted to get rid of her last week!
I'll be amazed if a Remain MP can win a Conservative leadership contest.
I think the candidates have to come from the Leave MPs. The most visible ones were Gove, Johnson, Patel and Leadsom. If I had a vote I'd support Ms Leadsom.
I'd prefer Gove, but since he repeatedly rejected running - I'd choose Leadsom too.
Surely both should be ruled out due to their expertise. Leadsom worked in the City. That has to be a real no-no.
I just dont get why anyone doesn't want to let Boris own it all.
Because at least some of the Tory MPs are patriots. Boris has fucked up enough already. If we are to salvage anything from this mess, it needs a serious candidate.
In addition to what Mr Herdson has written there is another factor for UKIP, funding and resources. When the MEPs and their resources cease so does the funding for Farage and his entourage. Aaron Banks money can only stretch so far. The HoC money is controlled by Carswell and could be immediately severed if he so chose. The Welsh resources are also controlled by (I assume) Neil Hamilton, who has fallen out with Farage. The question is will UKIP MEP resources cease in 2016, 2017, 2018 or with the 2019 elections?
Erm Scott, its over. Dave is going. Leave and Remain are sending back the rented furniture from their rented offices. Not sure CCHQ are going to appreciate you continuing to snipe at what is left of the party.
Our dumbest agent is lost in the field, send out a rescue party for agent Scott.
you're looking at the wrong thing. Of course reductions in benefits are going to hit recipients of benefits (although it was good that the richest also contributed more)
Trying to think of an allegory: it's like you are complaining that we are taking a bandage off a festering wound. That hurts, but the reason *why* we are doing it is to try and fix the underlying problem.
I don't have an answer for everything. But a few thoughts:
- more social housing but not on lifetime tenancies - better educationcat primary and secondary levels - stop forcing people to go to university / build up technical education as a viable and respected alternative - encourage firms to train / stop them using cheap imported Labour as a means to suppress wages - generous support for investment (capital allowances) and being back the patent box
Etc
Basically we need to recast the economy so people have the chance to get a worthwhile job, and can raise a family, own a home (or have knowledge they will have a home) and be respected / treated like adults.
Yes, we do. Leaving the single market will make all that more difficult, especially if government tax take falls.
On the other hand UK gilt yields are at just 1.08% for 10 year paper. Hopefully the new chancellor will use the opportunity to raise money and invest it in education.
The John McDonnell strategy. It does make sense.
I've never been against a disc stimulus, I was always against borrowing for day to day spending. Investing in technical colleges and revitalising our education sector with a one off £50bn bond sale (£504m debt servicing costs, of which £200m would come back via the BoE) makes sense to me.
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.
What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
I keep hearing people saying they respect the result. I don't and millions of others don't. There should have been a minimum of say 60% for such a significant one-way ticket that divides class, age and geography. I spit on the result.
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.
What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
Leave won. Leave has to deliver. It's Leave's game now. That's not whinging. It's a statement of fact. The floor is yours. Start dancing!
This is actually why I'm surprised that anyone is looking to run against Boris. We know that a lot of the Leave plans were bullshit. I'm not bothered because in politics you have to be ruthless and win by any means necessary, the remain side did the same. I just dont get why anyone doesn't want to let Boris own it all.
Er, because Tory MPs, obviously, want someone with the best chance of delivering future electoral success, not somebody who is going to be permanently hamstrung by being associated with undeliverable and dishonest promises.
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.
What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
Leave won. Leave has to deliver. It's Leave's game now. That's not whinging. It's a statement of fact. The floor is yours. Start dancing!
This is actually why I'm surprised that anyone is looking to run against Boris. We know that a lot of the Leave plans were bullshit. I'm not bothered because in politics you have to be ruthless and win by any means necessary, the remain side did the same. I just dont get why anyone doesn't want to let Boris own it all.
Completely agree with that and the underlying assumptions about the coming years.
In my constituency, on the edge of Liverpool with a rock-solid 20,000 Labour majority, we voted 58% Leave. That can only have been Labour voters.
I have sympathy for some of the Remainers. The EU isn't all bad, but learning to accept defeat is a problem for some younger voters. They flee to their safe space after discovering they can't no-platform the "racists", who despite being told how rancid they are, persisted in voting for what they believed.
Denial = petition for another referendum as they don't think this one counts. Can the next one have just one option, please?
Anger = The country is filled with thick racists. A violent demonstration in Islington will bring everyone to their senses, or else.
Bargaining = The EU will present an associate scheme and give us it all back.
Depression = What's the point of staying? I'm leaving now!
Acceptance = I'll vote SWP next time and we'll become Venezuela with open borders. The EU won't matter anymore.
2020: SWP elected in Witney.
The ability for totally OTT theatrics never fails to impress me. Covering yourself in fake blood outside Boris' home as leaving the EU is like just like war, protesting as dead patients during the junior doctors strike and totally missing the point...
you're looking at the wrong thing. Of course reductions in benefits are going to hit recipients of benefits (although it was good that the richest also contributed more)
Trying to think of an allegory: it's like you are complaining that we are taking a bandage off a festering wound. That hurts, but the reason *why* we are doing it is to try and fix the underlying problem.
I don't have an answer for everything. But a few thoughts:
- more social housing but not on lifetime tenancies - better educationcat primary and secondary levels - stop forcing people to go to university / build up technical education as a viable and respected alternative - encourage firms to train / stop them using cheap imported Labour as a means to suppress wages - generous support for investment (capital allowances) and being back the patent box
Etc
Basically we need to recast the economy so people have the chance to get a worthwhile job, and can raise a family, own a home (or have knowledge they will have a home) and be respected / treated like adults.
Yes, we do. Leaving the single market will make all that more difficult, especially if government tax take falls.
The EU was exacerbating the problems.
Also many of my points won't cost much /might even save money.
I think you are stuck in the way of thinking that says more money = good. I care much more about outcomes than cost.
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.
What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
I keep hearing people saying they respect the result. I don't and millions of others don't. There should have been a minimum of say 60% for such a significant one-way ticket that divides class, age and geography. I spit on the result.
They were "spinning" they wanted to get rid of her last week!
I'll be amazed if a Remain MP can win a Conservative leadership contest.
I think the candidates have to come from the Leave MPs. The most visible ones were Gove, Johnson, Patel and Leadsom. If I had a vote I'd support Ms Leadsom.
I'd prefer Gove, but since he repeatedly rejected running - I'd choose Leadsom too.
Surely both should be ruled out due to their expertise. Leadsom worked in the City. That has to be a real no-no.
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.
What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
Leave won. Leave has to deliver. It's Leave's game now. That's not whinging. It's a statement of fact. The floor is yours. Start dancing!
This is actually why I'm surprised that anyone is looking to run against Boris. We know that a lot of the Leave plans were bullshit. I'm not bothered because in politics you have to be ruthless and win by any means necessary, the remain side did the same. I just dont get why anyone doesn't want to let Boris own it all.
Er, because Tory MPs, obviously, want someone with the best chance of delivering future electoral success, not somebody who is going to be permanently hamstrung by being associated with undeliverable and dishonest promises.
I think it's good that the old gits saved the naïve and inexperienced from themselves.
When you see a child setting off to cross the road for the first time, it's nice to have parents to pull him back from the edge of the pavement. "No, dear, that's bad for you." They have to learn but you have to do it in small stages.
Just a taste of the Remainers' sneering attitude to anyone who disagrees with them.
What makes me most angry about the UK's plunge into the nihilism of Brexit with the oldies- they had it all. The rising stock market, the pensions and retirement often from 60 or below, good jobs, free education, access to the housing ladder.
Young people already had it bad. But now, having Brexit foisted on them because of (predominantly the 70%) racist and ignorant old people. I put the % figure in there because I don't want to tar all oldies with the same brush- only those mean spirited lot who voted Brexit.
You still whinging and bumping your gums, you picked a loser , get on with it. Given you don't even live in the country who cares what you think.
The first thing I would like to hear is a big bold generous offer to EU citizens already in the UK. I know their status hasn't been questioned by anyone but I think it's important to make them feel welcome and know they'll be able to stay.
The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.
Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.
What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.
Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.
How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
The first thing I would like to hear is a big bold generous offer to EU citizens already in the UK. I know their status hasn't been questioned by anyone but I think it's important to make them feel welcome and know they'll be able to stay.
Both Nicola Sturgeon and Sadiq Khan have already done that
you're looking at the wrong thing. Of course reductions in benefits are going to hit recipients of benefits (although it was good that the richest also contributed more)
Trying to think of an allegory: it's like you are complaining that we are taking a bandage off a festering wound. That hurts, but the reason *why* we are doing it is to try and fix the underlying problem.
I don't have an answer for everything. But a few thoughts:
- more social housing but not on lifetime tenancies - better educationcat primary and secondary levels - stop forcing people to go to university / build up technical education as a viable and respected alternative - encourage firms to train / stop them using cheap imported Labour as a means to suppress wages - generous support for investment (capital allowances) and being back the patent box
Etc
Basically we need to recast the economy so people have the chance to get a worthwhile job, and can raise a family, own a home (or have knowledge they will have a home) and be respected / treated like adults.
My thoughts are:
-use our tax system to incentivise training by, for example, allowing double the cost to be set off. -Get our college system back to training real skills for specific jobs that actually exist rather than meaningless courses with no economic value. Involve local employers much more closely. -Seriously invest in social housing funded by long term bonds making use of current interest rates. It is more debt but it is necessary. -a tax target of equiperating income taxes and capital taxes which allow the wealthy to avoid paying their share of the benefits that society gives them. -Drive through Universal Credit but as a means to addressing the absurdities of our welfare system, not as a means of cutting the costs of it.
Pretty similar to yours, with which I do not disagree. Who is going to deliver such a platform? Gove (as Chancellor) surely has to be the best bet.
Sound pretty similar (mine certainly wsdnt exhaustive)
Gove as Chancellor. May possibly as leader? There is a scarcity of good choices.
I am not a fan of May (except when she is speaking to the police federation). I think it has to be Boris but I am just a tad nervous about it. I suspect he will make Cameron look more like Chief Executive than Chairman of the Board and a lot will depend on the quality of the team. Leadsom should have an important role but she is well short of leader at the moment.
Comments
You cannot have an insurrectionist political movement that can govern an establishment that is 90% diametrically opposed to it. From mainstream politics, the media, academia, business....it is not that they are just opposed, they are appalled by the prospect of Brexit.
Corbyn's survival depends on Momentum taking control of the levers of power. Brexit doesn't have this.
The prospects for Brexit are grim indeed, on every level. 2 years from now a shattered Brexit leadership will be coming back to the UK with a humiliating 2nd vote after agreeing terms with Europe that are much worse than they are now. Like Cameron, they'll try and paint it as an achievement.
Interesting piece, David, for which, as always, many thanks. I do think what will happen to UKIP will be part of the general shakeout the LEAVE vote will produce in politics.
As far as the LDs are concerned, an interesting move by Tim Farron yesterday which drew the usual abuse from the usual suspects but is potentially quite clever. The LDs have always propsered when they have a single identifiable policy which sets them apart - Paddy's penny on income tax for education in 1992 and of course opposition to the Iraq War under the late Charles Kennedy.
Tim is, I think, seeking to make the LDs a reverse UKIP - the party's distinguishing policy from a post-Cameron Conservative Party and an uncertain Labour Party will be as the party campaigning to get us back into the EU.
This might start to look attractive if the likes of ScottP and Tyson are correct and LEAVE proves the economic disaster some were predicting or doesn't produce the changes some are hoping (immigration) but it will also need the EU to change and reform and become a more attractive option (immigration again).
Where I part company with this (as I'm doing a lot these days) is the whole EFTA scenario (which I've proposed for months) has to be given a chance of success. As the leading player of a revitalised EFTA, Britain has the opportunity to create the free market counterweight to the EU which the EU recognises as an existential threat but with which it will have to deal if other countries follow Britain out the door.
Trying to think of an allegory: it's like you are complaining that we are taking a bandage off a festering wound. That hurts, but the reason *why* we are doing it is to try and fix the underlying problem.
I don't have an answer for everything. But a few thoughts:
- more social housing but not on lifetime tenancies
- better educationcat primary and secondary levels
- stop forcing people to go to university / build up technical education as a viable and respected alternative
- encourage firms to train / stop them using cheap imported Labour as a means to suppress wages
- generous support for investment (capital allowances) and being back the patent box
Etc
Basically we need to recast the economy so people have the chance to get a worthwhile job, and can raise a family, own a home (or have knowledge they will have a home) and be respected / treated like adults.
while I'm not a fan, full credit has to go to Nigel Farage, this is in many ways his victory
I think the candidates have to come from the Leave MPs. The most visible ones were Gove, Johnson, Patel and Leadsom. If I had a vote I'd support Ms Leadsom.
Well that worked well as Britain is plunged into an entirely self inflicted economic, political and constitutional crisis merely 15 months on.
Tory leadership;
I think we can safely say that Osborne will not be standing. If he does try to, the interesting question will be whether he can find somebody stupid enough to second him.
Boris will certainly stand. But does anyone seriously think he will get more than 50 votes in the leadership election? I certainly don't. If Gove stands as well it would be fifty between them. Nobody likes them, nobody trusts them and everyone will remember that Ruth Davidson absolutely steamrollered them in the debates.
May and Hammond have both kept their heads down and are well placed to unite the party as reluctant remainers who are now happy to negotiate a deal to leave the EU. They are both senior politicians who are generally respected. However, May's chief success at the Home Office has been her extraordinary longevity, which is now set to exceed that of Chuter Ede (July 1945 - October 1951, six years four months) to be the longest serving Home Secretary of all time. How well she does will depend on whether that offsets her perceived failures on immigration.
The spoiler candidate, if there is one, could be Crabb. He is more personally popular than say, Soubry or Rudd, and more likely to be a unity candidate than Patel. If he got to the final two, he might spring a surprise. However, at this moment the membership may opt for experience, reliability and durability over potential.
So May, for any number of reasons, should be favourite. Hammond is well placed if she stumbles or the campaign turns on immigration. Crabb is a decent long shot.
It would be pleasant to think, if it happens, that the referendum result destroyed Cameron, Osborne, Gove and Johnson all in one fell swoop. Corbyn, Milne and Macdonnell would be the icing on the cake. The gain to British public life would be incalculable.
I do feel kind of sh*tty that lovely Sam Cam is upset though (according to the Mail she was at times "distressed" and at times in an "ice cold fury" on Thursday night)
I am not a believer in redistributive policies because I am some idealistic, guilt-ridden metropolitan. I believe in them because my life experience has shown me they work and because they are clearly in the interests of me and my family. We all have a stake in creating a society that is seen to work for all its constituent parts. A society that works only for the best off is going to fail at some stage. Immigration clearly plays a part in that, but we have to go much, much further. And it cannot wait. Millions and millions of people feel totally alienated from the country we have become.
The runners and riders for this handicap for 3 year olds of all ages haven't yet been declared but in terms of quality an all weather seller looks an attractive proposition.
Unfortunately, as with all inchoate rebellions, this one is counterproductive. Britain will be poorer for Brexit and the most vulnerable will as always be hit hardest. Politicians will be inward looking, fighting partisan battles and tied up in separation issues. No-one will be working towards the bigger picture. There will be further constitutional stresses with a possible disintegration of our own Union, which will diminish us all further. And it has to be said, the elites who ar e at the root of this, who do well out of the EU and globalisation generally, will be in the worst possible mood to reach out to those that have given them a kicking.
This makes me sad.
The case made by Leave about *taking back control*, and restoring some national pride chimed - it offered something to feel good about/a chance to kick the buggers where it hurts and maybe improve their own lot along the way. They were sick of being done-to.
Do you ever make a post hat doesn't contain the word "metropolitan" somewhere? I'm not sure what you have against well educated city dwellers (perhaps they're too close to experts?). Either way, it's no better than calling leave voters Little Englanders.
They are still toxic at the national level. They are responsible for putting Dave in number 10. They promised their own in-out referendum. As such they own their fair share of Brexit.
If they need to do anything in national politics, it is to repeatedly say sorry or go away until people forget about them and then come back.
In my constituency, on the edge of Liverpool with a rock-solid 20,000 Labour majority, we voted 58% Leave. That can only have been Labour voters.
I have sympathy for some of the Remainers. The EU isn't all bad, but learning to accept defeat is a problem for some younger voters. They flee to their safe space after discovering they can't no-platform the "racists", who despite being told how rancid they are, persisted in voting for what they believed.
Denial = petition for another referendum as they don't think this one counts. Can the next one have just one option, please?
Anger = The country is filled with thick racists. A violent demonstration in Islington will bring everyone to their senses, or else.
Bargaining = The EU will present an associate scheme and give us it all back.
Depression = What's the point of staying? I'm leaving now!
Acceptance = I'll vote SWP next time and we'll become Venezuela with open borders. The EU won't matter anymore.
2020: SWP elected in Witney.
I looked up my own council area last night - 31k Leave 22k Remain, 74.5% TO. It's a very tight marginal Tory over LD. The whole SE matches the national picture of 52/48.
'Taking back control'
'Self determination'
'Sovereignty'
'FREEEEEDOM!'*
*except for viewers in Scotland
What has become clear about "Project Fear" is that it neglected sufficiently to address the most important issue- fear that Remain might actually lose.
-use our tax system to incentivise training by, for example, allowing double the cost to be set off.
-Get our college system back to training real skills for specific jobs that actually exist rather than meaningless courses with no economic value. Involve local employers much more closely.
-Seriously invest in social housing funded by long term bonds making use of current interest rates. It is more debt but it is necessary.
-a tax target of equiperating income taxes and capital taxes which allow the wealthy to avoid paying their share of the benefits that society gives them.
-Drive through Universal Credit but as a means to addressing the absurdities of our welfare system, not as a means of cutting the costs of it.
Pretty similar to yours, with which I do not disagree. Who is going to deliver such a platform? Gove (as Chancellor) surely has to be the best bet.
But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/dear-remainers-you-lost-stop-whinging-on-facebook/
Yet the Cotswolds, which has stayed loyally Tory for a hundred years and where Labour voters are rarer than a steak cooked with a pocket torch, was for remain! That's the wealthier incomers from London, at a guess (who would also be mostly Tory) and possibly also Oxford.
The
IMF, OECD, BOE, IFSEXPERTShttps://twitter.com/adargan95/status/746246214761472001
@inglesi: Next Wednesday, 27 leaders will meet to discuss Brexit, without Cameron. EU taking control.. https://t.co/MddALJ8iSQ
https://twitter.com/drscottthinks/status/746430170739810304
It will be a waste of money to even bother organising a poll and everyone here knows it.
Remarkably little sense of whats going on with Labour at the moment. Another story of rebellion and resignations but so far the attempts by MPs to get rid of Corbyn has been one of the worst political insurgencies seen in a while.
"it's no better than calling leave voters Little Englanders."
According to the OED ... Metropolitan means "Relating to or denoting a metropolis." I think urban is less specific but also less meaningful. What exactly is wrong with metropolitan?
I still want an EEA type arrangement with the EU but with the safeguard that there are limits on immigration. I think that is doable because it is clearly in both sides interests. I accept that the EU in particular has a broader agenda because there must be a real fear now it could fall apart. This is nothing to gloat about because it is not in our interests and will make our negotiations harder.
Ken Clarke was considered to be a popular politician, and had been a competent Chancellor. IDS was only known for his opposition to Maastrict.
I have no insider knowledge on this, but I think being a Remain supporter is going to be a deal breaker for Conservative Party members.
Let me assure you for most Ulster protestants, the Union means with Scotland and under the crown. They don't much care for England at all.
A Scottish / Ulster Federation with the Queen as head of state within the EU is my prediction.
Top trolling...
Gove as Chancellor. May possibly as leader? There is a scarcity of good choices.
I keep hearing people saying they respect the result. I don't and millions of others don't. There should have been a minimum of say 60% for such a significant one-way ticket that divides class, age and geography. I spit on the result.
He torched the building for the sake of his career, but he didn't really want a career trying to sweep up the ashes
Also many of my points won't cost much /might even save money.
I think you are stuck in the way of thinking that says more money = good. I care much more about outcomes than cost.