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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson looks at the post-referendum purpose of UKIP

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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    The next twunt to post 'nihilism' should be suspended by some metaphorical piano-wire. BrExit is about an open, fair and equitable solution to the UK's [or England's and Wales'] future.

    Please do not spout fancy words before reading a dictionary. If your message is conflated by confusion please locate a thesaurus for clarification.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Scott_P said:

    IanB2 said:

    If Boris DOESN'T get PM, I wonder what sort of mood he will be in and how will he behave?!

    Relief I would imagine.

    He torched the building for the sake of his career, but he didn't really want a career trying to sweep up the ashes
    It really would be interesting to know whether Boris made his decision on this referendum really thinking that Leave might win. I do wonder if his comment on an illegal immigrant amnesty near the end was a desperate attempt to throw away victory, and was let down by it almost completely ignored.

    He actually voted at 9.30pm - must be almost unprecedented for a campaign leader to vote so late. Wonder if psychologist could make anything of that. He had allegedly conceded defeat before he had even voted himself!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JeremyCliffe: Wise stuff from @ChukaUmunna on the way forward. Crucial Boris et al be held to account in coming months and years. https://t.co/x6ixAWPLba
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Rather the like the ' Tories for Corbyn ' thing I think Remainder voters should join the Tories to vote for Boris. He deserves what's coming to him as much as Clegg did.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,377
    tlg86 said:

    daodao said:

    Sean_F said:

    daodao said:

    The very title UKIP is now a misnomer.

    The UK is fatally wounded because of the decision on 23/6. Little England, with Wales in its coat tails, will survive as an impoverished semi-independent state on the fringes of Europe, but the EU will do its utmost to make its position as uncomfortable as possible. I expect relations between the EU and this rump state to be little different from those between the EU and the other significant state on the fringe of Europe, namely Russia.

    With respect to Scotland, Chris Cairns’ cartoon from several years ago (pre-Indy ref) is rather apt today:
    http://nationalcollective.com/2013/05/14/havent-i-always-told-you-were-safer-together/

    I expect Scotland to becomes independent within 2 years in order that it never leaves the EU (in line with the Section 50 timeline which is already ticking).

    Once this happens, the links from the "six counties" to Westminster become untenable politically, geographically and economically. I would therefore expect an actual united 32 county Irish republic is likely by the time of the centenary of the secession of the 26 counties in 1922.

    The UK will be no more.

    Isn't that more what you hope for, rather than what you expect?
    I thought a Leave vote would enable Britain to be great again, and independent of EU diktats. However, I am now convinced that the results in Scotland and the six counties will mean the end of the United Kingdom of GB & NI as a political entity. Little England will be a minor state - the clock has been put back to before the 1st Elizabethan era, with Wales as its last colony.
    The irony is, having had all these arguments about the money we'll save, if we get rid of Scotland and NI, the money we'll save will be much higher than £350m a week.
    Not too bright are you, it is Little Englander pygmies like you that give the UK such a bad reputation across the world. Conceited , pompous , ignorant morons who have no clue.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,946
    MaxPB said:

    Gadfly said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    DavidL said:

    The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.

    Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.

    What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.

    Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.

    How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
    According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.

    But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/dear-remainers-you-lost-stop-whinging-on-facebook/

    Leave won. Leave has to deliver. It's Leave's game now. That's not whinging. It's a statement of fact. The floor is yours. Start dancing!

    This is actually why I'm surprised that anyone is looking to run against Boris. We know that a lot of the Leave plans were bullshit. I'm not bothered because in politics you have to be ruthless and win by any means necessary, the remain side did the same. I just dont get why anyone doesn't want to let Boris own it all.
    In principle I disagree. We need the best politicians running the show. The Leave campaign was a pack of lies. But the result was clear and valid. Anyone who accepts the result is eligible.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,098

    Y0kel said:

    As regards the nationalism question across in Northern Ireland, this place isn't going to vote to part ways with the UK.

    It will be a waste of money to even bother organising a poll and everyone here knows it.

    Remarkably little sense of whats going on with Labour at the moment. Another story of rebellion and resignations but so far the attempts by MPs to get rid of Corbyn has been one of the worst political insurgencies seen in a while.

    But if, Scotland splits from England, what does Northern Ireland want to be in a union with? There is no UK.

    Let me assure you for most Ulster protestants, the Union means with Scotland and under the crown. They don't much care for England at all.

    A Scottish / Ulster Federation with the Queen as head of state within the EU is my prediction.
    Would the Scots seriously favour that? It would be hugely expensive for them as well.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,817
    malcolmg said:

    UKIP has destroyed the UK as a unitary state. It cannot have achieved its purpose.

    Nope. The SNP. They can't or won't accept the result of a UK-wide referendum, less than two years after Scotland voted 55% to stay in the UK.
    You don't get it do you, the people who were fooled have just realised that they count for nothing. Scotland gets what England wants whether they like it or not. Any moron looking at the arithmetic would have realised that , but instead 55% chose to listen to Tory lies. That will not be the case in the next one.
    In the Year of Our Lord 2016, English, Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish patriots, starving and outnumbered, charged the fields of EURef.
    They fought like warrior-poets.
    They fought like Britons.
    And they won their Freedom.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    you're looking at the wrong thing. Of course reductions in benefits are going to hit recipients of benefits (although it was good that the richest also contributed more)

    Trying to think of an allegory: it's like you are complaining that we are taking a bandage off a festering wound. That hurts, but the reason *why* we are doing it is to try and fix the underlying problem.

    I don't have an answer for everything. But a few thoughts:

    - more social housing but not on lifetime tenancies
    - better educationcat primary and secondary levels
    - stop forcing people to go to university / build up technical education as a viable and respected alternative
    - encourage firms to train / stop them using cheap imported Labour as a means to suppress wages
    - generous support for investment (capital allowances) and being back the patent box

    Etc

    Basically we need to recast the economy so people have the chance to get a worthwhile job, and can raise a family, own a home (or have knowledge they will have a home) and be respected / treated like adults.

    Yes, we do. Leaving the single market will make all that more difficult, especially if government tax take falls.

    The EU was exacerbating the problems.

    Also many of my points won't cost much /might even save money.

    I think you are stuck in the way of thinking that says more money = good. I care much more about outcomes than cost.

    So do I, funnily enough. There must be a reason Eton charges what it does, Charles. It can't only be to keep the riff-raff out.

    When wealthy people paid higher taxes there was more social mobility and more opportunities for people like me to make something of themselves.

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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    The first thing I would like to hear is a big bold generous offer to EU citizens already in the UK. I know their status hasn't been questioned by anyone but I think it's important to make them feel welcome and know they'll be able to stay.

    I had an awkward meeting with a Greek builder while out leafletting for Leave.

    I tried to reassure him at the time that he shouldn't worry. But its an understandable concern, and I'm sure widely held by EU migrants.

    (I gave his undecided-voter boss a copy of Dan Hannan's "why vote leave".)
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    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    PlatoSaid said:

    Gadfly said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    DavidL said:

    The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.

    Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.

    What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.

    Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.

    How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
    According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.

    But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/dear-remainers-you-lost-stop-whinging-on-facebook/
    That's one hell of a mandate. Great to see you posting again!
    I have never been away, but have found that lurking is better for my blood pressure :-)
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686


    Completely agree with that and the underlying assumptions about the coming years.

    I think some of the claims are deliverable, but others probably aren't. Falling housing costs is something we can probably tick off the list. Extra money for the NHS probably wouldn't be hard to conjure up, maybe not £350m per week but certainly £60-70m per week, which would still be £3-4bn. Lower immigration might not be easy to deliver given that gross migration was 450k last year and 180k came from outside the EU, we just have a very large skills shortage, our education system isn't fit for purpose. Control over our laws and justice system is easy, control over regulation is easy even within the EEA we now only have to implement EU regulation for single market trade rather than for all business.

    I think immigration is going to be the hardest to deliver and it's going to take the longest to fix because cutting off immigration treats the symptoms rather than the cause.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,946
    edited June 2016

    FF43 said:

    So Farage thinks (now the campaign is safely over) that the £350 million a day claim was a mistake. Daniel Hannan says actually immigrants will still come in to take jobs just as much as before. We just need a Leave leader to admit Turkey isn't joining the EU and, bingo, it's full house: All our claims were false, but enjoy the post-Brexit dawn.

    BTW when will Boris Johnson go on TV to apologise for the Brexit recession, as he said he would do? Or will he pretend like Jacob Rees-Mogg that it is merely a coincidence?

    To be fair, the Brexit trio in the final debate declined to promise a reduction in immigration numbers (Leadsom looked shifty and wittered about something else) - I said at the time that it was a huge mistake that the Remain trio didn't scrap their prepared remarks to seize on that. But at least the Brexiteers were honest by omission there.
    Michael Gove, at any rate, did say Brexit would get immigration down to the tens of thousands, in a repeat of Cameron's pledge. He also blamed his cabinet colleagues for failing to reduce non-EU immigration, which is the bigger part of it.

    Edited for predictive spelling
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Whichever way you slice it, this feels like a significant moment for trust in politics. Before the result was even formally declared, Farage had rubbished the idea of the extra £350m for the NHS as a “mistake”, while the MEP Dan Hannan had talked down the idea of a reduction in immigration. What a magical mystery tour it will be for people, then, to discover what it was in fact they were actually voting for. And who will be blamed for things now the EU bogeyman is slain? The history of the continent offers a series of chilling answers to that inquiry.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/leavers-take-control
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,377
    tyson said:

    I'm not ready yet Sean F. I am so angry and annoyed as you can see. I'm one of those sort of insomniacs who listens to the radio during the night- and last night was just report after report after report after report of the implications of Brexit- none of them good. Each one like being prodded with a cattle prod (rather than help me sleep)

    The UK now, today is in a absolute mess...it was entirely self inflicted, and more than that predicted.

    Sean_F said:

    tyson said:

    Oh dear the chaos continues.
    -The Mayor of Calais is reconsidering the border controls- saying the French should no longer hold the refugees at Calais. Great stuff- we will move the Jungle to the racist Kent coast. Well Cameron did warn us
    -The six founding members of EU are meeting to decide to terms of our exit- Britain at the margins, a place we will have to get used to for many years to come. The first summit meeting we have not been invited to since 1975. Excellent- the UK is insignificant and ignored- a place we remember well from our time as the sick man of Europe before joining the EU
    -Our credit rating has been dropped to negative (on par with Spain)- the worst it has ever been by Moody's- let me remember something, oh yes we were warned about this one too by the Experts
    -The UK plunged into a constitutional crisis with the rise of Scottish and Irish nationalism- oh yes, didn't Cameron remind us of that one too?
    -Dominic Grieve saying the country is suffering an economic meltdown- now this is merely a year after we had Osborne's Long Term Economic Plan repeated ad nauseum at the 2015 election
    -Indian business leaders reviewing long term investment in the UK because of access to single market. The commonwealth argument- why would external investors from our great commonwealth invest in a market that only has access to 60m people?

    Many people regretting now the fact that they voted leave- too late now suckers

    Still we've taken back control. Right. We've taken back control to be a despised, ignored, insignificant, broken up, poorer little country faced to deal with some of the greatest global challenges- the migrant crisis per instance- alone. It wasn't like we were not warned.

    Well fucking done Brexit.

    If you think North Down and East Belfast are about to vote to leave the UK, I've got a bridge I'd like to sell you.
    Ha Ha Ha , what an absolute jessie boy you are, and all that from afar. Nothing has changed you stupid fool other than some millionaires peeing their pants that their gravy train may be upset. For 99% of the population it was just another day.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,377

    Scott_P said:

    @politicshome: Spain says ‘closer to’ controlling Gibraltar after Brexit vote: https://t.co/SLNXShSkhm https://t.co/qm8zgDL8P1

    that's about as surprising as malc saying turnip
    Next he will be telling us Argentina want the Falklands, an absolute font of knowledge
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Barnesian said:

    Gadfly said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    DavidL said:

    The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.

    Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.

    What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.

    Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.

    How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
    According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.

    But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/dear-remainers-you-lost-stop-whinging-on-facebook/
    So is the 16.1 million for Remain.

    I keep hearing people saying they respect the result. I don't and millions of others don't. There should have been a minimum of say 60% for such a significant one-way ticket that divides class, age and geography. I spit on the result.
    Loser.
    Well done on your result in Luton! How did that happen I am really suprised at that.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sorry if these points have already been made, I've not had a chance to catch up on the comments yet.

    1. The news channels found it easy to visit hipster Remain areas and working class Leave areas yesterday. What they didn't do was find Tory areas that were Remain or Leave. Understanding where that divide truly lies in the Tory vote is important especially to how different constituencies will respond to the new PM come 2020.

    2. Who on the Labour Remain side really covered themselves in glory during the campaign. It is easy to point the finger at Corbyn, who wasn't really committed anyway, but which of the true euro-enthusiasts can really say they gave it 100%?

    Two good points. I certainly read several reports of pro-Remain MPs not campaigning at all - even in their own seats for fear of what could happen at the ballot box next time.

    I looked up my own council area last night - 31k Leave 22k Remain, 74.5% TO. It's a very tight marginal Tory over LD. The whole SE matches the national picture of 52/48.
    On Thursday I drove past Keith Vaz's constituency office. At elections you cannot usually see through the windows for posters, and the lights are and car park show a lot of activity. The lights were off and not a poster to be seen. John Ashworth was invisible too.

    Liz Kendall made a decent effort and campaigned actively for Labour Remain.

    All water under the bridge now.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,053
    Scott_P said:

    IanB2 said:

    If Boris DOESN'T get PM, I wonder what sort of mood he will be in and how will he behave?!

    Relief I would imagine.

    He torched the building for the sake of his career, but he didn't really want a career trying to sweep up the ashes
    I think the Tory party is suffering it's worst crisis since Neville Chamberlain. This dwarfs the Thatcher matricide, and it's near extinction under IDS.

    The acrimony is terrible- listening to Grieve and Soubry for starters. Cameron and Osborne must be seething. And, like the many other Brits, some Tory MP's will be looking at a Brexit fallout and thinking "What have I done?"

    If anything, the chaos and carnage that will ensue over the coming months and years will put Euroscepticism to bed- it is a pity we had to press the nuclear button to prove the absurdity of the Eurosceptic cause.
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    Bunnco - I was very pleased to see you making an all too rare re-appearance on PB.com over the past couple of days and I was intrigued to note that your self descript has subtly changed from having been "Your man on the spot" to "Your man on the inside", which makes you sound very important!
    Thanks for your couple of tips for the next PM/Tory Leader .... I've had a tiny bet on Liz Truss at 370 (aka 350/1 net) with Betfair, which compares very favourably with Coral's equivalent odds for her of just 40/1. That said, I don't expect to collect!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2016

    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    Basically we need to recast the economy so people have the chance to get a worthwhile job, and can raise a family, own a home (or have knowledge they will have a home) and be respected / treated like adults.

    Yes, we do. Leaving the single market will make all that more difficult, especially if government tax take falls.

    The EU was exacerbating the problems.

    Also many of my points won't cost much /might even save money.

    I think you are stuck in the way of thinking that says more money = good. I care much more about outcomes than cost.

    So do I, funnily enough. There must be a reason Eton charges what it does, Charles. It can't only be to keep the riff-raff out.

    When wealthy people paid higher taxes there was more social mobility and more opportunities for people like me to make something of themselves.

    The wealthy pay a greater proprtion of taxes now than they used to.

    You asked me for proposals. I gave you some thoughts. How about you engage with the substance rather than make a trite one line response? David's reply was much more interesting
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,951
    edited June 2016
    Take back (a measure) of control. Slippery.

    https://twitter.com/tmaslen/status/746621755897282564
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065
    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    IanB2 said:

    If Boris DOESN'T get PM, I wonder what sort of mood he will be in and how will he behave?!

    Relief I would imagine.

    He torched the building for the sake of his career, but he didn't really want a career trying to sweep up the ashes
    It really would be interesting to know whether Boris made his decision on this referendum really thinking that Leave might win. I do wonder if his comment on an illegal immigrant amnesty near the end was a desperate attempt to throw away victory, and was let down by it almost completely ignored.

    He actually voted at 9.30pm - must be almost unprecedented for a campaign leader to vote so late. Wonder if psychologist could make anything of that. He had allegedly conceded defeat before he had even voted himself!

    Both he and Gove looked terrified yesterday. As if they realised for the first time that this is not a game. They have to deliver.

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    ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 489

    Y0kel said:

    As regards the nationalism question across in Northern Ireland, this place isn't going to vote to part ways with the UK.

    It will be a waste of money to even bother organising a poll and everyone here knows it.

    Remarkably little sense of whats going on with Labour at the moment. Another story of rebellion and resignations but so far the attempts by MPs to get rid of Corbyn has been one of the worst political insurgencies seen in a while.

    But if, Scotland splits from England, what does Northern Ireland want to be in a union with? There is no UK.

    Let me assure you for most Ulster protestants, the Union means with Scotland and under the crown. They don't much care for England at all.

    A Scottish / Ulster Federation with the Queen as head of state within the EU is my prediction.
    Would the Scots seriously favour that? It would be hugely expensive for them as well.
    Scotland's deficit is about £8bn. Northern Ireland's deficit is just under £10bn. And people say Brexit doesn't add up!
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MaxPB said:


    Completely agree with that and the underlying assumptions about the coming years.

    Lower immigration might not be easy to deliver given that gross migration was 450k last year and 180k came from outside the EU, we just have a very large skills shortage, our education system isn't fit for purpose.

    I think immigration is going to be the hardest to deliver and it's going to take the longest to fix because cutting off immigration treats the symptoms rather than the cause.
    The immigration numbers jumped radically in 1997/8. Whatever New Labour did to change the pre-1997 procedures can be undone.

    http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    UKIP clearly still have a role. Having got the UK out of the EU they are now going to have to fight to keep it out. It is only the circumstance of the Tory's having won an election on a commitment to hold a referendum on EU membership that has got us to where we are now. There is nothing to stop a pro-EU party that wins a future election taking us back in. Indeed, that might well happen after the next election. Europe is going to stay on the agenda. They might have to change their name though, as one of the unexpected side effects of their campaign might well be the end of the UK.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,817
    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:

    IanB2 said:

    If Boris DOESN'T get PM, I wonder what sort of mood he will be in and how will he behave?!

    Relief I would imagine.

    He torched the building for the sake of his career, but he didn't really want a career trying to sweep up the ashes
    I think the Tory party is suffering it's worst crisis since Neville Chamberlain. This dwarfs the Thatcher matricide, and it's near extinction under IDS.

    The acrimony is terrible- listening to Grieve and Soubry for starters. Cameron and Osborne must be seething. And, like the many other Brits, some Tory MP's will be looking at a Brexit fallout and thinking "What have I done?"

    If anything, the chaos and carnage that will ensue over the coming months and years will put Euroscepticism to bed- it is a pity we had to press the nuclear button to prove the absurdity of the Eurosceptic cause.
    IDS never lost a General Election!

    It was under Major, Hague and Howard that the Tories won sub-200 seats!
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,384
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: EXCL Labour frontbenchers will threaten to quit in Jeremy Corbyn coup attempt https://t.co/nyB24Pc7Md https://t.co/zIhNO9Xmrl

    That's pretty obvious - Margarert Hodge is not a flaky fringe character, and she won't have made her move without the prospect of serious support. Corbyn has cancelled his Glastonbury speech to make a Central London speech at 1030 this morning, which I assume will urge members not to get sidetracked into an internal squabble. Next week, I suspect we'll see some high-profile resignations ("threatening to quit" is a laughable paper tiger). The centre-right wants to move before the September conference has the chance to change the rules for leadership nominations, which will make McDonnell the odds-on successor to Corbyn.

    But they're running out of time. The recess is a few weeks away, there is no obvious centre-right alternative, the membership is sceptical, and the hitherto largely passive Momentum fleet in being (>100K members) will mobilise a deselection effort if it gets to showdown stage. I don't think the rebels have any serious chance this year. They might manage it in the future, but will then probably get McDonnell. Whether they'll think that worth it I honestly don't know.
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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited June 2016

    To be fair, I think they can keep the promise on Turkey. I really don't think Turkish citizens are going to have the automatic right to live in England anytime soon. On the other hand, I would hope that Heidi Alexander starts progress chasing that £350 million a week for the NHS pretty quickly.

    Lewisham-East was a 'New-Labour' gerry-mander. Once the boundaries are settled [in this Parliament] she may have to feck-off to Doncaster to be assured of a safe Labour-seat (where her views are accepted).

    What? 23-06-2016: Doncaster is revolting...!
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    On the assumption that the next PM is a Conservative Brexiter, the Betfair odds are:-
    Boris Johnson 2.06
    Andrea Leadsom 10
    Michael Gove 13
    Liam Fox 26
    Priti Patel 30
    David Davis 55
    Dominic Raab 60
    Jacob Rees-Mogg 95
    Chris Grayling 130
    Penny Mordaunt 220

    Chris Grayling, Priti Patel and Penny Mordaunt featured more in the earlier part of the campaign than the later stages.

    Gove ruled himself out. Vote LEAVE thought that their other best media people were:-
    Boris Johnson 2.06 Andrea Leadsom 10

    Those are the top two Brexit favourites, niether has served in Cabinet. Leadsom actually has more experience in Govt - but Boris has led a local govt body.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,541
    A Scottish Tory writes..

    'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.

    I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'

    http://tinyurl.com/zxhpywm
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    malcolmg said:

    Indigo said:

    Scott_P said:

    @KayBurley: Great news that there'll be an extra £350m a week to spend on the NHS...
    #EURefResults https://t.co/K5mzsJeYKe

    Erm Scott, its over. Dave is going. Leave and Remain are sending back the rented furniture from their rented offices. Not sure CCHQ are going to appreciate you continuing to snipe at what is left of the party.
    Our dumbest agent is lost in the field, send out a rescue party for agent Scott.
    so suprised the English put two fingers up to the establishment when two years ago the Scottish didn't.

    Pobably easier to do that with the E.U tbh no one loves the E.U it was only ever pragmatic support it had.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sorry if these points have already been made, I've not had a chance to catch up on the comments yet.

    1. The news channels found it easy to visit hipster Remain areas and working class Leave areas yesterday. What they didn't do was find Tory areas that were Remain or Leave. Understanding where that divide truly lies in the Tory vote is important especially to how different constituencies will respond to the new PM come 2020.

    2. Who on the Labour Remain side really covered themselves in glory during the campaign. It is easy to point the finger at Corbyn, who wasn't really committed anyway, but which of the true euro-enthusiasts can really say they gave it 100%?

    Two good points. I certainly read several reports of pro-Remain MPs not campaigning at all - even in their own seats for fear of what could happen at the ballot box next time.

    I looked up my own council area last night - 31k Leave 22k Remain, 74.5% TO. It's a very tight marginal Tory over LD. The whole SE matches the national picture of 52/48.
    On Thursday I drove past Keith Vaz's constituency office. At elections you cannot usually see through the windows for posters, and the lights are and car park show a lot of activity. The lights were off and not a poster to be seen. John Ashworth was invisible too.

    Liz Kendall made a decent effort and campaigned actively for Labour Remain.

    All water under the bridge now.
    I saw Mr Vaz on the telly when the result had been declared. He looked sad as can be. Did not suggest ignoring the result though.

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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Y0kel said:

    As regards the nationalism question across in Northern Ireland, this place isn't going to vote to part ways with the UK.

    It will be a waste of money to even bother organising a poll and everyone here knows it.

    Remarkably little sense of whats going on with Labour at the moment. Another story of rebellion and resignations but so far the attempts by MPs to get rid of Corbyn has been one of the worst political insurgencies seen in a while.

    But if, Scotland splits from England, what does Northern Ireland want to be in a union with? There is no UK.

    Let me assure you for most Ulster protestants, the Union means with Scotland and under the crown. They don't much care for England at all.

    A Scottish / Ulster Federation with the Queen as head of state within the EU is my prediction.
    I am Northern Ireland born bred and resident. I come from a part of Belfast where the fraternal ties with Scotland can be seen in terms of the Scottish flags that pop up at certain times of years. Reality is this though, if Scotland goes it won't affect how most unionists vote on the key question.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,817
    Barnesian said:

    Gadfly said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    DavidL said:

    The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.

    Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.

    What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.

    Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.

    How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
    According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.

    But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/dear-remainers-you-lost-stop-whinging-on-facebook/
    So is the 16.1 million for Remain.

    I keep hearing people saying they respect the result. I don't and millions of others don't. There should have been a minimum of say 60% for such a significant one-way ticket that divides class, age and geography. I spit on the result.
    Contempt for Democracy noted :)
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,951

    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: EXCL Labour frontbenchers will threaten to quit in Jeremy Corbyn coup attempt https://t.co/nyB24Pc7Md https://t.co/zIhNO9Xmrl

    That's pretty obvious - Margarert Hodge is not a flaky fringe character, and she won't have made her move without the prospect of serious support. Corbyn has cancelled his Glastonbury speech to make a Central London speech at 1030 this morning, which I assume will urge members not to get sidetracked into an internal squabble. Next week, I suspect we'll see some high-profile resignations ("threatening to quit" is a laughable paper tiger). The centre-right wants to move before the September conference has the chance to change the rules for leadership nominations, which will make McDonnell the odds-on successor to Corbyn.

    But they're running out of time. The recess is a few weeks away, there is no obvious centre-right alternative, the membership is sceptical, and the hitherto largely passive Momentum fleet in being (>100K members) will mobilise a deselection effort if it gets to showdown stage. I don't think the rebels have any serious chance this year. They might manage it in the future, but will then probably get McDonnell. Whether they'll think that worth it I honestly don't know.
    Nick. Surely you cannot believe that Corbyn can provide the top drawer opposition and alternative government we need in the months/years ahead.

    He had/has a role to play in healing the party and energising CLPs, but he is a luxury that the party and the country can not afford. We need a leader and a communicator.



  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    Basically we need to recast the economy so people have the chance to get a worthwhile job, and can raise a family, own a home (or have knowledge they will have a home) and be respected / treated like adults.

    Yes, we do. Leaving the single market will make all that more difficult, especially if government tax take falls.

    The EU was exacerbating the problems.

    Also many of my points won't cost much /might even save money.

    I think you are stuck in the way of thinking that says more money = good. I care much more about outcomes than cost.

    So do I, funnily enough. There must be a reason Eton charges what it does, Charles. It can't only be to keep the riff-raff out.

    When wealthy people paid higher taxes there was more social mobility and more opportunities for people like me to make something of themselves.

    The wealthy pay a greater proprtion of taxes now than they used to.

    You asked me for proposals. I gave you some thoughts. How about you engage with the substance rather than make a trite one line response? David's reply was much more interesting

    The wealthy are also wealthier than they used to be. Of course, David's reply was much more interesting. You agreed with it. I think people like you and me must contribute more. History shows that social mobility was at its greatest when the wealthiest paid more tax. There's no short cut to quality outcomes - as Eton demonstrates.

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    MaxPB said:


    Completely agree with that and the underlying assumptions about the coming years.

    Lower immigration might not be easy to deliver given that gross migration was 450k last year and 180k came from outside the EU, we just have a very large skills shortage, our education system isn't fit for purpose.

    I think immigration is going to be the hardest to deliver and it's going to take the longest to fix because cutting off immigration treats the symptoms rather than the cause.
    The immigration numbers jumped radically in 1997/8. Whatever New Labour did to change the pre-1997 procedures can be undone.

    http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics
    I think our economy is different now, the fastest growing sectors such as technology and biomedical sciences require high skilled migrant labour from all over the world. The NHS requires migrant labour from all over the world. It's not going to be easy to cut immigration to the tens of thousands without impacting the economy, at least not while our own education system is unfit for purpose.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    off-topic:

    When is Mr Hollande going to accept the inevitable: France is no longer a global-player and has been subsumed by the EU? Time for a revamped UNSC:

    # The United States of America
    # China
    # The United Kingdom
    # Remainian-EU
    # Russia.

    Will England+Wales+Maybe NI still qualify for a UN seat?
    One seat on the Security Council and three places in the last 16 of the footy. We definitely punch above our weight.
    Why do the left (even people to the left of Corbyn) support Brexit. Would have thought the idea of workers right having a floor would have been attractive, knowing a right wing tory governmnet will get elected every now and again.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,053
    PlatoSaid said:

    Gadfly said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    DavidL said:

    The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.

    Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.

    What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.

    Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.

    How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
    According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.

    But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/dear-remainers-you-lost-stop-whinging-on-facebook/
    That's one hell of a mandate. Great to see you posting again!
    It'll be interesting over time to see how many of those 17 million cough up to proudly admit that they plunged the UK into years of economic, political and constitutional chaos. Many are already regretting it. Many thought their votes didn't count believing the polls. Many thought they were just giving a kick to the establishment fronted by Cameron. Oh and many, will die soon enough anyway.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,817
    Y0kel said:

    Y0kel said:

    As regards the nationalism question across in Northern Ireland, this place isn't going to vote to part ways with the UK.

    It will be a waste of money to even bother organising a poll and everyone here knows it.

    Remarkably little sense of whats going on with Labour at the moment. Another story of rebellion and resignations but so far the attempts by MPs to get rid of Corbyn has been one of the worst political insurgencies seen in a while.

    But if, Scotland splits from England, what does Northern Ireland want to be in a union with? There is no UK.

    Let me assure you for most Ulster protestants, the Union means with Scotland and under the crown. They don't much care for England at all.

    A Scottish / Ulster Federation with the Queen as head of state within the EU is my prediction.
    I am Northern Ireland born bred and resident. I come from a part of Belfast where the fraternal ties with Scotland can be seen in terms of the Scottish flags that pop up at certain times of years. Reality is this though, if Scotland goes it won't affect how most unionists vote on the key question.
    At EURef, the more Unionist the seat, the higher the LEAVE vote:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/746330414592188416

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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Now we've voted Leave - what EU related institutions do we still need to consider? ECHR? Is that just a case of repealing/amending our Human Rights Act?

    When will the ECJ stop having a practical role? I presume many cases are trundling through the system.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Some people seem to be under the impression that Brexit are now in Government. The Conservatives under Cameron hold the levers of power, or have I been catapulted into an alternative universe? Cameron may be a bit Schrodinger-ish at the moment, but he's still in charge.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,941

    annak said:
    I highly doubt a million plus people voted like that. If the margin was of Austrian PM proportions I might consider it.

    They can't even claim it was something to do with FPTP and they never thought their vote counted in that seat e.g. all that stuff about UKIP voters denying Tory majority in 2010.</blockquote

    Freedom of Movement will be the major problem if, as Hannan suggested last night, it could continue pretty much as it is.

    If we Brexit and end freedom of movement (take back control of our borders) then I respect that that is what people voted for and although I did't vote for it it has broad legitimacy.

    If however we Brexit and freedom of movement is maintained then I, and I suspect millions of others, will consider the referendum to have been a fraud and lacking in legitimacy.

    If Leave try and get away with that they will be in big trouble both from Leave voters expecting an end to immigration and angrily claiming they would not have voted to Leave without that pledge and Remain voters who believe the referendum was a fraud, won on an outright lie.

    The demand for a second vote based on the final deal will be huge in those circumstances.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:


    Completely agree with that and the underlying assumptions about the coming years.

    Lower immigration might not be easy to deliver given that gross migration was 450k last year and 180k came from outside the EU, we just have a very large skills shortage, our education system isn't fit for purpose.

    I think immigration is going to be the hardest to deliver and it's going to take the longest to fix because cutting off immigration treats the symptoms rather than the cause.
    The immigration numbers jumped radically in 1997/8. Whatever New Labour did to change the pre-1997 procedures can be undone.

    http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics
    I think our economy is different now, the fastest growing sectors such as technology and biomedical sciences require high skilled migrant labour from all over the world. The NHS requires migrant labour from all over the world. It's not going to be easy to cut immigration to the tens of thousands without impacting the economy, at least not while our own education system is unfit for purpose.
    I believe the NHS deliberately rations training places below demand. That can and should be changed.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    midwinter said:

    Pensioners weren't intimidated. They just don't like immigrants. You tell me if that defines them as racist? I'd say it was a huge motivation and the prime reason Leave won. You may not agree.

    As I've told you before writing waycist doesn't magically make everyone who points out bigotry wrong.. Fortunately it's still so side splittingly funny that doesn't matter though.

    My mother was an immigrant, as was my father. My wife is an immigrant as is my brother's wife. So can you do me the decency when addressing us B.O.O.ers and STFU?
    I suspect that the reason pensioners came out in their droves is that they remember the 1975 referendum and wanted to correct their error.
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740

    A Scottish Tory writes..

    'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.

    I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'

    http://tinyurl.com/zxhpywm

    A hugely significant piece I fear.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BrianSal3: @JeremyCliffe @PCollinsTimes @ChukaUmunna just dawning on BJ 48% will hate him because they lost, 52% will hate him because he can't deliver
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This is ever so slightly tragic

    @DanHannanMEP: Chaps, look at what I said throughout the campaign: it's all on Twitter, YouTube etc. I was for more control, not for minimal immigration.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,251
    Using the 1973 English counties Leave won all the districts in:

    Bedfordshire
    Cheshire
    Cleveland
    Cornwall
    Derbyshire
    Dorset
    Durham
    Essex
    Hereford & Worcester
    Humberside
    Lancashire
    Lincolnshire
    Northamptonshire
    Northumbria
    Shropshire
    South Yorkshire
    Staffordshire
    Suffolk
    West Midlands
    Wiltshire

    Remain won all the districts in:

    ...

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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Scott_P said:

    It's striking how many immigrants voted to pull up the drawbridge behind them

    My father is dead (so - hopefully - he had no vote): I, myself, am proud to have been born in Peckham. Apart from myself - as a BOOer - the rest of the votes are speculation.

    :tumbleweed:
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,053
    nunu said:

    off-topic:

    When is Mr Hollande going to accept the inevitable: France is no longer a global-player and has been subsumed by the EU? Time for a revamped UNSC:

    # The United States of America
    # China
    # The United Kingdom
    # Remainian-EU
    # Russia.

    Will England+Wales+Maybe NI still qualify for a UN seat?
    One seat on the Security Council and three places in the last 16 of the footy. We definitely punch above our weight.
    Why do the left (even people to the left of Corbyn) support Brexit. Would have thought the idea of workers right having a floor would have been attractive, knowing a right wing tory governmnet will get elected every now and again.
    I've got a very good Marxist friend who is delighted with Brexit. He is a leading academic and features quite a lot on Radio 4 and whatnot. He views the EU as neo liberal capitalist club, and thinks we are one step closer to overthrowing the capitalists. He still believes in the concept of a violent, proletarian revolution.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: EXCL Labour frontbenchers will threaten to quit in Jeremy Corbyn coup attempt https://t.co/nyB24Pc7Md https://t.co/zIhNO9Xmrl

    That's pretty obvious - Margarert Hodge is not a flaky fringe character, and she won't have made her move without the prospect of serious support. Corbyn has cancelled his Glastonbury speech to make a Central London speech at 1030 this morning, which I assume will urge members not to get sidetracked into an internal squabble. Next week, I suspect we'll see some high-profile resignations ("threatening to quit" is a laughable paper tiger). The centre-right wants to move before the September conference has the chance to change the rules for leadership nominations, which will make McDonnell the odds-on successor to Corbyn.

    But they're running out of time. The recess is a few weeks away, there is no obvious centre-right alternative, the membership is sceptical, and the hitherto largely passive Momentum fleet in being (>100K members) will mobilise a deselection effort if it gets to showdown stage. I don't think the rebels have any serious chance this year. They might manage it in the future, but will then probably get McDonnell. Whether they'll think that worth it I honestly don't know.
    Nick. Surely you cannot believe that Corbyn can provide the top drawer opposition and alternative government we need in the months/years ahead.

    He had/has a role to play in healing the party and energising CLPs, but he is a luxury that the party and the country can not afford. We need a leader and a communicator.

    Why Labour members give Corbyn such an easy time is quite beyond me. They should be furious. Nick's assumption that the only alternative to him is on the centre right is extraordinary. Is he really the best the centre left can do? This is not September 2015. Cameron is gone, the UK faces huge political and economic uncertainty. Millions of Labour voters and others need an effective opposition. I refuse to believe there is no-one better than Jeremy Corbyn to lead it.

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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,951
    There is something Shakespearian about recent events. We're about to see a missing play where Falstaff became King.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 13,011
    edited June 2016
    Morning again all :)

    I wonder whether Nick Clegg will empathise with David Cameron this weekend. In effect, Cameron has made exactly the same mistake Clegg did and is paying a similar price though more immediately.

    Both men, flushed with electoral success (Cameron's was real, Clegg's was illusory) believed they could enact fundamental change through the force of their own popularity in an act of real hubris.

    Clegg believed he could change the electoral system - Cameron believed he could transform Britain's relationship with the EU. Both believed their innate popularity would transfer into support at a referendum.

    Neither prepared well - Clegg indulged in the tuition fees debacle. Cameron promised a new settlement for Britain in Europe and came back with nothing.

    Both failed - Cameron has had the sense to partially leave the stage. Unfortunately, Nick hung around like a bad smell for years perpetuating the problem and wrecking the party in 2015.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,045
    edited June 2016
    For the sake of restoring national unity, it would be much better if the next PM were to be a remainer. The brexiteers have already got what they wanted, and someone who campaigned for remain is likely to get a more sympathetic hearing and more amenable negotiation from the rest of Europe than BoJo would get. Added to which the opposition and deep resentment of many of the nominating MPs means that he is unlikely to get on the ballot. May vs Hammond, I would suggest.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    PlatoSaid said:

    Now we've voted Leave - what EU related institutions do we still need to consider? ECHR? Is that just a case of repealing/amending our Human Rights Act?

    When will the ECJ stop having a practical role? I presume many cases are trundling through the system.

    The ECHR is not related to the EU in an absolute sense. What happened was the the Lisbon treaty incorporated a version of it (the charter of fundamental rights) into EU law which gave the ECJ final say over human rights cases for EU nations. Previously we had a situation where Strasbourg was relatively fair and we could choose to ignore their rulings if they were incompatible with our own laws. Now we have a situation where the ECJ rules on human rights cases according to EU law with the principles of "EU citizenship" and ever closer union in mind and it being the ECJ and the final arbiter of all EU law and being the the highest court in our land (higher than the supreme court) we must accept all decisions without dissent.

    Once we leave we go back to the old stance of being able to ignore Strasbourg's decisions if they aren't compatible with UK law.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: EXCL Labour frontbenchers will threaten to quit in Jeremy Corbyn coup attempt https://t.co/nyB24Pc7Md https://t.co/zIhNO9Xmrl

    That's pretty obvious - Margarert Hodge is not a flaky fringe character, and she won't have made her move without the prospect of serious support. Corbyn has cancelled his Glastonbury speech to make a Central London speech at 1030 this morning, which I assume will urge members not to get sidetracked into an internal squabble. Next week, I suspect we'll see some high-profile resignations ("threatening to quit" is a laughable paper tiger). The centre-right wants to move before the September conference has the chance to change the rules for leadership nominations, which will make McDonnell the odds-on successor to Corbyn.

    But they're running out of time. The recess is a few weeks away, there is no obvious centre-right alternative, the membership is sceptical, and the hitherto largely passive Momentum fleet in being (>100K members) will mobilise a deselection effort if it gets to showdown stage. I don't think the rebels have any serious chance this year. They might manage it in the future, but will then probably get McDonnell. Whether they'll think that worth it I honestly don't know.
    Sounds like you are running scared.

    If the Labour centrists do not move now, they will never be able to do so again. It is fight or die, and they know it.

    I wouldn't mind McDonnell though. My objection to Corbyn is not his politcs so much as his ineffectiveness. The words piss up and brewery spring to mind. McDonnell is a far more effective performer, and in the IngSoc tradition is able to turn on a sixpence.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,045

    A Scottish Tory writes..

    'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.

    I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'

    http://tinyurl.com/zxhpywm

    A hugely significant piece I fear.
    Yep, I support the Union - but you really can't argue against any of that.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    For the sake of restoring national unity, it would be much better if the next PM were to be a remainer. The Brexiteers have already got what they wanted, and someone who campaigned for remain is likely to get a more sympathetic hearing and more amenable negotiation from the rest of Europe than BoJo would get. Added to which the opposition and deep resentment of many of the nominating MPs means that he is unlikely to get on the ballot. May vs Hammond, I would suggest.

    So after Leave won the referendum, our current Remain PM, should be replaced with another Remain PM?

    No.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065
    edited June 2016

    A Scottish Tory writes..

    'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.

    I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'

    http://tinyurl.com/zxhpywm

    A hugely significant piece I fear.

    Yep, the Union is done. This wasn't just the English voting for a government the Scots didn't want; it was the English putting Scotland on a completely different and unalterable future trajectory that the Scots demonstrably don't want. The partnership, such as it was, is over.

  • Options
    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Y0kel said:

    Y0kel said:

    As regards the nationalism question across in Northern Ireland, this place isn't going to vote to part ways with the UK.

    It will be a waste of money to even bother organising a poll and everyone here knows it.

    Remarkably little sense of whats going on with Labour at the moment. Another story of rebellion and resignations but so far the attempts by MPs to get rid of Corbyn has been one of the worst political insurgencies seen in a while.

    But if, Scotland splits from England, what does Northern Ireland want to be in a union with? There is no UK.

    Let me assure you for most Ulster protestants, the Union means with Scotland and under the crown. They don't much care for England at all.

    A Scottish / Ulster Federation with the Queen as head of state within the EU is my prediction.
    I am Northern Ireland born bred and resident. I come from a part of Belfast where the fraternal ties with Scotland can be seen in terms of the Scottish flags that pop up at certain times of years. Reality is this though, if Scotland goes it won't affect how most unionists vote on the key question.
    At EURef, the more Unionist the seat, the higher the LEAVE vote:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/746330414592188416

    The EU versus UK Union question are two very distinct one in the eyes of most people here. One is important and the other is steeped in the culture, souls and blood of many on both sides.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,128
    nunu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Barnesian said:

    Gadfly said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    DavidL said:

    The reason I called this for Leave on Wednesday (come on, I haven't mentioned that since yesterday) is very well articulated in this thread which, despite some sniping, has made this a genuinely fascinating thread.

    Far too many of our population, not quite a majority, just don't feel represented by any of the established parties. They feel alienated by an elite who just don't see their problems, the reductions in real wages, the trend towards the casualization of labour, the lack of opportunities for themselves and their children, the arrogance of the laughingly named public "servants", the closing of the doors of private home ownership, the feeling that life is just getting harder and harder.

    What do I, a comfortably well off lawyer know about this? Well, I listened to what people were saying in this campaign, in the phone ins, in the vox pops whenever they were asked. We are treating too many of our fellow citizens like shit and it really has to stop.

    Can UKIP channel this? I doubt it but it is possible. They certainly have a better chance than an Islington dominated Labour party which has an entirely different agenda, outlook and set of priorities.

    How long will some Remainers continue to deny that over 17m said Out. That's more than the entire In vote in 1975.
    According to Toby Young, 17.4 million is more votes than any government has won since the introduction of universal suffrage and six million more than the present government.

    But of course, as we constantly hear on here, nobody cares about Europe :-)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/dear-remainers-you-lost-stop-whinging-on-facebook/
    So is the 16.1 million for Remain.

    I keep hearing people saying they respect the result. I don't and millions of others don't. There should have been a minimum of say 60% for such a significant one-way ticket that divides class, age and geography. I spit on the result.
    Loser.
    Well done on your result in Luton! How did that happen I am really suprised at that.
    I would guess that huge numbers of Labour voters, in a predominantly Labour town, swung it. Luton went 57% Leave, in a town where 28% vote Tory (some of whom voted Remain) , 12% UKIP, and 52% Labour. Kelvin Hopkins and Labour Leave deserve the credit.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,045

    For the sake of restoring national unity, it would be much better if the next PM were to be a remainer. The Brexiteers have already got what they wanted, and someone who campaigned for remain is likely to get a more sympathetic hearing and more amenable negotiation from the rest of Europe than BoJo would get. Added to which the opposition and deep resentment of many of the nominating MPs means that he is unlikely to get on the ballot. May vs Hammond, I would suggest.

    So after Leave won the referendum, our current Remain PM, should be replaced with another Remain PM?

    No.
    You won. Now is the time to be magnanimous.
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Scott_P said:

    It's striking how many immigrants voted to pull up the drawbridge behind them

    My father is dead (so - hopefully - he had no vote): I, myself, am proud to have been born in Peckham. Apart from myself - as a BOOer - the rest of the votes are speculation.

    :tumbleweed:
    Do you have a shrine to Del Boy in your house?

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sorry if these points have already been made, I've not had a chance to catch up on the comments yet.

    1. The news channels found it easy to visit hipster Remain areas and working class Leave areas yesterday. What they didn't do was find Tory areas that were Remain or Leave. Understanding where that divide truly lies in the Tory vote is important especially to how different constituencies will respond to the new PM come 2020.

    2. Who on the Labour Remain side really covered themselves in glory during the campaign. It is easy to point the finger at Corbyn, who wasn't really committed anyway, but which of the true euro-enthusiasts can really say they gave it 100%?

    Two good points. I certainly read several reports of pro-Remain MPs not campaigning at all - even in their own seats for fear of what could happen at the ballot box next time.

    I looked up my own council area last night - 31k Leave 22k Remain, 74.5% TO. It's a very tight marginal Tory over LD. The whole SE matches the national picture of 52/48.
    On Thursday I drove past Keith Vaz's constituency office. At elections you cannot usually see through the windows for posters, and the lights are and car park show a lot of activity. The lights were off and not a poster to be seen. John Ashworth was invisible too.

    Liz Kendall made a decent effort and campaigned actively for Labour Remain.

    All water under the bridge now.
    I saw Mr Vaz on the telly when the result had been declared. He looked sad as can be. Did not suggest ignoring the result though.

    Typical opportunism milking the moment. He did nothing when it mattered.
  • Options
    TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    edited June 2016
    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:

    IanB2 said:

    If Boris DOESN'T get PM, I wonder what sort of mood he will be in and how will he behave?!

    Relief I would imagine.

    He torched the building for the sake of his career, but he didn't really want a career trying to sweep up the ashes
    I think the Tory party is suffering it's worst crisis since Neville Chamberlain. This dwarfs the Thatcher matricide, and it's near extinction under IDS.

    The acrimony is terrible- listening to Grieve and Soubry for starters. Cameron and Osborne must be seething. And, like the many other Brits, some Tory MP's will be looking at a Brexit fallout and thinking "What have I done?"

    If anything, the chaos and carnage that will ensue over the coming months and years will put Euroscepticism to bed- it is a pity we had to press the nuclear button to prove the absurdity of the Eurosceptic cause.
    That's what you want to happen, though, isn't it? You want it all to come crashing down, so you can stand atop the wreckage and sneer down at all the racist, homophobic, nihilistic, white working class and pensioners that you hate so much. You don't understand that you own this as much as anyone who voted for out. It's your favoured politicians and commentators, your way of thinking that has driven the country to this point. You've tried to mold the country into the way that you want it, want us to think just like you do, never for once thinking that you and your ilk might be doing more harm than good.
    Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem tribal zealots have sown this, and now you're reaping it. If you could have just stepped back a little, tried to bring us along, rather than sneer and belittle us, it might have worked- I'd have gladly voted to stay in an EEC type of organisation, rather than an EU, but you couldn't, you knew you were right, morally superior, and we were stupid. Well, now the stupid people have won, and for good or bad, we've all got to take a bite of the shit sandwich and chew it down. Enjoy.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    A Scottish Tory writes..

    'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.

    I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'

    http://tinyurl.com/zxhpywm

    A hugely significant piece I fear.

    Yep, the Union is done. This wasn't just the English voting for a government the Scots didn't want; it was the English putting Scotland on a completely different and unalterable future trajectory that the Scots demonstrably don't want. The partnership, such as it was, is over.

    I think we should wait and see how it all shakes out before rushing to judgements. What happens if Brexit is contagious and Sweden, Denmark, Finland and France follow is out of the door. What happens if the gang of six shaft the Eastern European nations and offer is Associate membership with controls on unskilled migration? We don't know what's going to happen.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,251
    Sean_F said:


    There's an interesting east-west divide in the Home Counties with West being Remain and East Leave.

    In a general election its a combined mass of huge Conservative majorities.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Scott_P said:

    This is ever so slightly tragic

    @DanHannanMEP: Chaps, look at what I said throughout the campaign: it's all on Twitter, YouTube etc. I was for more control, not for minimal immigration.

    It's no wonder he's spent his entire career as an MEP. Genuinely accountable politicians know that it is what the voters believe that matters, not what you may have technically said in obscure policy documents and limited circulation campaign literature. Even if he personally has always been perfectly consistent he can't claim to speak as any sort of representative of what the people voted for.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    Basically we need to recast the economy so people have the chance to get a worthwhile job, and can raise a family, own a home (or have knowledge they will have a home) and be respected / treated like adults.

    Yes, we do. Leaving the single market will make all that more difficult, especially if government tax take falls.

    The EU was exacerbating the problems.

    Also many of my points won't cost much /might even save money.

    I think you are stuck in the way of thinking that says more money = good. I care much more about outcomes than cost.

    So do I, funnily enough. There must be a reason Eton charges what it does, Charles. It can't only be to keep the riff-raff out.

    When wealthy people paid higher taxes there was more social mobility and more opportunities for people like me to make something of themselves.

    The wealthy pay a greater proprtion of taxes now than they used to.

    You asked me for proposals. I gave you some thoughts. How about you engage with the substance rather than make a trite one line response? David's reply was much more interesting

    The wealthy are also wealthier than they used to be. Of course, David's reply was much more interesting. You agreed with it. I think people like you and me must contribute more. History shows that social mobility was at its greatest when the wealthiest paid more tax. There's no short cut to quality outcomes - as Eton demonstrates.

    Ok what will you do with the money once your raised it?
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016

    For the sake of restoring national unity, it would be much better if the next PM were to be a remainer. The Brexiteers have already got what they wanted, and someone who campaigned for remain is likely to get a more sympathetic hearing and more amenable negotiation from the rest of Europe than BoJo would get. Added to which the opposition and deep resentment of many of the nominating MPs means that he is unlikely to get on the ballot. May vs Hammond, I would suggest.

    So after Leave won the referendum, our current Remain PM, should be replaced with another Remain PM?

    No.
    You won. Now is the time to be magnanimous.
    Leave won the referendum. A Leave PM is required to implement the result.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: The Times: "Islamic State said last night it was delighted with the negative economic effect of the referendum result".

    Wow, who saw that coming?

    Oh, wait...

    oh so lets vote in a certain way because isis said something. OK, right....
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,079
    @Scott_P

    Were you up for Dave ?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,128
    weejonnie said:

    midwinter said:

    Pensioners weren't intimidated. They just don't like immigrants. You tell me if that defines them as racist? I'd say it was a huge motivation and the prime reason Leave won. You may not agree.

    As I've told you before writing waycist doesn't magically make everyone who points out bigotry wrong.. Fortunately it's still so side splittingly funny that doesn't matter though.

    My mother was an immigrant, as was my father. My wife is an immigrant as is my brother's wife. So can you do me the decency when addressing us B.O.O.ers and STFU?
    I suspect that the reason pensioners came out in their droves is that they remember the 1975 referendum and wanted to correct their error.
    There's a nasty rant from Giles Coren in the Times about how he hates old people and they should be barred from voting.

    Sorry Giles, it's my age cohort (40/50 year olds) that swung it to Leave.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065

    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: EXCL Labour frontbenchers will threaten to quit in Jeremy Corbyn coup attempt https://t.co/nyB24Pc7Md https://t.co/zIhNO9Xmrl

    That's pretty obvious - Margarert Hodge is not a flaky fringe character, and she won't have made her move without the prospect of serious support. Corbyn has cancelled his Glastonbury speech to make a Central London speech at 1030 this morning, which I assume will urge members not to get sidetracked into an internal squabble. Next week, I suspect we'll see some high-profile resignations ("threatening to quit" is a laughable paper tiger). The centre-right wants to move before the September conference has the chance to change the rules for leadership nominations, which will make McDonnell the odds-on successor to Corbyn.

    But they're running out of time. The recess is a few weeks away, there is no obvious centre-right alternative, the membership is sceptical, and the hitherto largely passive Momentum fleet in being (>100K members) will mobilise a deselection effort if it gets to showdown stage. I don't think the rebels have any serious chance this year. They might manage it in the future, but will then probably get McDonnell. Whether they'll think that worth it I honestly don't know.
    Sounds like you are running scared.

    If the Labour centrists do not move now, they will never be able to do so again. It is fight or die, and they know it.

    I wouldn't mind McDonnell though. My objection to Corbyn is not his politcs so much as his ineffectiveness. The words piss up and brewery spring to mind. McDonnell is a far more effective performer, and in the IngSoc tradition is able to turn on a sixpence.

    It is, quite literally, impossible to imagine a worse leader than Corbyn. I could not vote for a party led by McDonnell but he would clearly be a step up from Jezza. Better still, why don't the centre left find someone without the baggage. Whoever they get will be better than what is on offer now.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,079
    PlatoSaid said:

    Now we've voted Leave - what EU related institutions do we still need to consider? ECHR? Is that just a case of repealing/amending our Human Rights Act?

    When will the ECJ stop having a practical role? I presume many cases are trundling through the system.

    Even though I voted to remain, sovereignty of British law gives me the horn.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    Sean_F said:

    weejonnie said:

    midwinter said:

    Pensioners weren't intimidated. They just don't like immigrants. You tell me if that defines them as racist? I'd say it was a huge motivation and the prime reason Leave won. You may not agree.

    As I've told you before writing waycist doesn't magically make everyone who points out bigotry wrong.. Fortunately it's still so side splittingly funny that doesn't matter though.

    My mother was an immigrant, as was my father. My wife is an immigrant as is my brother's wife. So can you do me the decency when addressing us B.O.O.ers and STFU?
    I suspect that the reason pensioners came out in their droves is that they remember the 1975 referendum and wanted to correct their error.
    There's a nasty rant from Giles Coren in the Times about how he hates old people and they should be barred from voting.

    Sorry Giles, it's my age cohort (40/50 year olds) that swung it to Leave.
    BAME voters as well IMO.
  • Options
    rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    Postal votes lie behind Leaves success.Most of the postal votes were returned at the time when opinion poll support for Leave was at its highest.This and the tendency of older people to vote leave means that the estimated 10 million postal votes probably split 60:40 in favour of leave a lead of 2 million.looking at final votes it looks as if on polling day Remain probably carried the day 51:49 but this was not sufficient to offset leaves 2 million lead from postal votes.
    Does anyone know if the count has produced the exact postal non postal split?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Pulpstar said:

    @Scott_P

    Were you up for Dave ?

    :lol:
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,011
    Morning all,

    Hammond seems surprisingly high on BF at 90 (next leader).

    Has he ruled out standing?
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    alex. said:

    Scott_P said:

    IanB2 said:

    If Boris DOESN'T get PM, I wonder what sort of mood he will be in and how will he behave?!

    Relief I would imagine.

    He torched the building for the sake of his career, but he didn't really want a career trying to sweep up the ashes
    It really would be interesting to know whether Boris made his decision on this referendum really thinking that Leave might win. I do wonder if his comment on an illegal immigrant amnesty near the end was a desperate attempt to throw away victory, and was let down by it almost completely ignored.

    He actually voted at 9.30pm - must be almost unprecedented for a campaign leader to vote so late. Wonder if psychologist could make anything of that. He had allegedly conceded defeat before he had even voted himself!
    Hadn't he been caught up in the train fiasco that his successor has created?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,951

    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: EXCL Labour frontbenchers will threaten to quit in Jeremy Corbyn coup attempt https://t.co/nyB24Pc7Md https://t.co/zIhNO9Xmrl

    That's pretty obvious - Margarert Hodge is not a flaky fringe character, and she won't have made her move without the prospect of serious support. Corbyn has cancelled his Glastonbury speech to make a Central London speech at 1030 this morning, which I assume will urge members not to get sidetracked into an internal squabble. Next week, I suspect we'll see some high-profile resignations ("threatening to quit" is a laughable paper tiger). The centre-right wants to move before the September conference has the chance to change the rules for leadership nominations, which will make McDonnell the odds-on successor to Corbyn.

    But they're running out of time. The recess is a few weeks away, there is no obvious centre-right alternative, the membership is sceptical, and the hitherto largely passive Momentum fleet in being (>100K members) will mobilise a deselection effort if it gets to showdown stage. I don't think the rebels have any serious chance this year. They might manage it in the future, but will then probably get McDonnell. Whether they'll think that worth it I honestly don't know.
    Sounds like you are running scared.

    If the Labour centrists do not move now, they will never be able to do so again. It is fight or die, and they know it.

    I wouldn't mind McDonnell though. My objection to Corbyn is not his politcs so much as his ineffectiveness. The words piss up and brewery spring to mind. McDonnell is a far more effective performer, and in the IngSoc tradition is able to turn on a sixpence.

    It is, quite literally, impossible to imagine a worse leader than Corbyn. I could not vote for a party led by McDonnell but he would clearly be a step up from Jezza. Better still, why don't the centre left find someone without the baggage. Whoever they get will be better than what is on offer now.

    A strong leader of the opposition who can hold Boris (etc) to account is utterly critical. For better or worse Labour are charged with this job.

    They don't have the luxury to fuck about. Corbyn has no forensic skill and no ability or desire to represent a broad coalition. If they do not deliver, they will be replaced.

  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,251

    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:

    IanB2 said:

    If Boris DOESN'T get PM, I wonder what sort of mood he will be in and how will he behave?!

    Relief I would imagine.

    He torched the building for the sake of his career, but he didn't really want a career trying to sweep up the ashes
    I think the Tory party is suffering it's worst crisis since Neville Chamberlain. This dwarfs the Thatcher matricide, and it's near extinction under IDS.

    The acrimony is terrible- listening to Grieve and Soubry for starters. Cameron and Osborne must be seething. And, like the many other Brits, some Tory MP's will be looking at a Brexit fallout and thinking "What have I done?"

    If anything, the chaos and carnage that will ensue over the coming months and years will put Euroscepticism to bed- it is a pity we had to press the nuclear button to prove the absurdity of the Eurosceptic cause.
    That's what you want to happen, though, isn't it? You want it all to come crashing down, so you can stand atop the wreckage and sneer down at all the racist, homophobic, nihilistic, white working class and pensioners that you hate so much. You don't understand that you own this as much as anyone who voted for out. It's your favoured politicians and commentators, your way of thinking that has driven the country to this point. You've tried to mold the country into the way that you want it, want us to think just like you do, never for once thinking that you and your ilk might be doing more harm than good.
    Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem tribal zealots have sown this, and now you're reaping it. If you could have just stepped back a little, tried to bring us along, rather than sneer and belittle us, it might have worked- I'd have gladly voted to stay in an EEC type of organisation, rather than an EU, but you couldn't, you knew you were right, morally superior, and we were stupid. Well, now the stupid people have won, and for good or bad, we've all got to take a bite of the shit sandwich and chew it down. Enjoy.
    Well said.

    What has become clear during the last month is how much some 'sophisticated' people hate their fellow countrymen.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,053

    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: EXCL Labour frontbenchers will threaten to quit in Jeremy Corbyn coup attempt https://t.co/nyB24Pc7Md https://t.co/zIhNO9Xmrl

    That's pretty obvious - Margarert Hodge is not a flaky fringe character, and she won't have made her move without the prospect of serious support. Corbyn has cancelled his Glastonbury speech to make a Central London speech at 1030 this morning, which I assume will urge members not to get sidetracked into an internal squabble. Next week, I suspect we'll see some high-profile resignations ("threatening to quit" is a laughable paper tiger). The centre-right wants to move before the September conference has the chance to change the rules for leadership nominations, which will make McDonnell the odds-on successor to Corbyn.

    But they're running out of time. The recess is a few weeks away, there is no obvious centre-right alternative, the membership is sceptical, and the hitherto largely passive Momentum fleet in being (>100K members) will mobilise a deselection effort if it gets to showdown stage. I don't think the rebels have any serious chance this year. They might manage it in the future, but will then probably get McDonnell. Whether they'll think that worth it I honestly don't know.

    I'm still getting those round robin Corbyn emails which suggests he's up for a fight. I always reply...usually something critical (not horrible like I can do to pbCOMers).......surprisingly I never seem to get a response.

    This is the last stand for the centre right.....they need a senior figurehead though to have a hope....a Starmer, Jarvis, Chukka (my personal favourite....the personification of cool).
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:



    Basically we need to recast the economy so people have the chance to get a worthwhile job, and can raise a family, own a home (or have knowledge they will have a home) and be respected / treated like adults.

    Yes, we do. Leaving the single market will make all that more difficult, especially if government tax take falls.

    The EU was exacerbating the problems.

    Also many of my points won't cost much /might even save money.

    I think you are stuck in the way of thinking that says more money = good. I care much more about outcomes than cost.

    So do I, funnily enough. There must be a reason Eton charges what it does, Charles. It can't only be to keep the riff-raff out.

    When wealthy people paid higher taxes there was more social mobility and more opportunities for people like me to make something of themselves.

    The wealthy pay a greater proprtion of taxes now than they used to.

    You asked me for proposals. I gave you some thoughts. How about you engage with the substance rather than make a trite one line response? David's reply was much more interesting

    The wealthy are also wealthier than they used to be. Of course, David's reply was much more interesting. You agreed with it. I think people like you and me must contribute more. History shows that social mobility was at its greatest when the wealthiest paid more tax. There's no short cut to quality outcomes - as Eton demonstrates.

    Ok what will you do with the money once your raised it?

    Spend it! It's time to reverse many of the cuts this government has made and which have caused such damage to working class communities: restore public transport subsidies, reopen sure start centres, look at school class sizes and after school clubs, and so on.

  • Options
    rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    Looking for a dark horse candidate for the Tory Leadership candidate someone with the patience to worl through brevity.Step forward Phillip Hammond
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,045
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: EXCL Labour frontbenchers will threaten to quit in Jeremy Corbyn coup attempt https://t.co/nyB24Pc7Md https://t.co/zIhNO9Xmrl

    That's pretty obvious - Margarert Hodge is not a flaky fringe character, and she won't have made her move without the prospect of serious support. Corbyn has cancelled his Glastonbury speech to make a Central London speech at 1030 this morning, which I assume will urge members not to get sidetracked into an internal squabble. Next week, I suspect we'll see some high-profile resignations ("threatening to quit" is a laughable paper tiger). The centre-right wants to move before the September conference has the chance to change the rules for leadership nominations, which will make McDonnell the odds-on successor to Corbyn.

    But they're running out of time. The recess is a few weeks away, there is no obvious centre-right alternative, the membership is sceptical, and the hitherto largely passive Momentum fleet in being (>100K members) will mobilise a deselection effort if it gets to showdown stage. I don't think the rebels have any serious chance this year. They might manage it in the future, but will then probably get McDonnell. Whether they'll think that worth it I honestly don't know.
    Sounds like you are running scared.

    If the Labour centrists do not move now, they will never be able to do so again. It is fight or die, and they know it.

    I wouldn't mind McDonnell though. My objection to Corbyn is not his politcs so much as his ineffectiveness. The words piss up and brewery spring to mind. McDonnell is a far more effective performer, and in the IngSoc tradition is able to turn on a sixpence.

    It is, quite literally, impossible to imagine a worse leader than Corbyn. I could not vote for a party led by McDonnell but he would clearly be a step up from Jezza. Better still, why don't the centre left find someone without the baggage. Whoever they get will be better than what is on offer now.

    A strong leader of the opposition who can hold Boris (etc) to account is utterly critical. For better or worse Labour are charged with this job.

    They don't have the luxury to fuck about. Corbyn has no forensic skill and no ability or desire to represent a broad coalition. If they do not deliver, they will be replaced.

    If the alternative is going to be McDonnell it's really not worth it.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,251

    Morning all,

    Hammond seems surprisingly high on BF at 90 (next leader).

    Has he ruled out standing?

    Hammond is the Conservative equivalent of Alan Johnson.

    An empty shell.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sean_F said:

    weejonnie said:

    midwinter said:

    Pensioners weren't intimidated. They just don't like immigrants. You tell me if that defines them as racist? I'd say it was a huge motivation and the prime reason Leave won. You may not agree.

    As I've told you before writing waycist doesn't magically make everyone who points out bigotry wrong.. Fortunately it's still so side splittingly funny that doesn't matter though.

    My mother was an immigrant, as was my father. My wife is an immigrant as is my brother's wife. So can you do me the decency when addressing us B.O.O.ers and STFU?
    I suspect that the reason pensioners came out in their droves is that they remember the 1975 referendum and wanted to correct their error.
    There's a nasty rant from Giles Coren in the Times about how he hates old people and they should be barred from voting.

    Sorry Giles, it's my age cohort (40/50 year olds) that swung it to Leave.
    I'd a glance at The Times online earlier - golly what a grief fest. I'll have a read of the comments a bit later, they're usually much more pro-Brexit than the articles.

    I'm surprised the pages don't have a black border. :wink:
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,313
    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: EXCL Labour frontbenchers will threaten to quit in Jeremy Corbyn coup attempt https://t.co/nyB24Pc7Md https://t.co/zIhNO9Xmrl

    That's pretty obvious - Margarert Hodge is not a flaky fringe character, and she won't have made her move without the prospect of serious support. Corbyn has cancelled his Glastonbury speech to make a Central London speech at 1030 this morning, which I assume will urge members not to get sidetracked into an internal squabble. Next week, I suspect we'll see some high-profile resignations ("threatening to quit" is a laughable paper tiger). The centre-right wants to move before the September conference has the chance to change the rules for leadership nominations, which will make McDonnell the odds-on successor to Corbyn.

    But they're running out of time. The recess is a few weeks away, there is no obvious centre-right alternative, the membership is sceptical, and the hitherto largely passive Momentum fleet in being (>100K members) will mobilise a deselection effort if it gets to showdown stage. I don't think the rebels have any serious chance this year. They might manage it in the future, but will then probably get McDonnell. Whether they'll think that worth it I honestly don't know.

    I'm still getting those round robin Corbyn emails which suggests he's up for a fight. I always reply...usually something critical (not horrible like I can do to pbCOMers).......surprisingly I never seem to get a response.

    This is the last stand for the centre right.....they need a senior figurehead though to have a hope....a Starmer, Jarvis, Chukka (my personal favourite....the personification of cool).
    Chukka is also the personification an empty suit.

    A number of my leftie chums have their hopes invested in Starmer....
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,045
    edited June 2016

    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:

    IanB2 said:

    If Boris DOESN'T get PM, I wonder what sort of mood he will be in and how will he behave?!

    Relief I would imagine.

    He torched the building for the sake of his career, but he didn't really want a career trying to sweep up the ashes
    I think the Tory party is suffering it's worst crisis since Neville Chamberlain. This dwarfs the Thatcher matricide, and it's near extinction under IDS.

    The acrimony is terrible- listening to Grieve and Soubry for starters. Cameron and Osborne must be seething. And, like the many other Brits, some Tory MP's will be looking at a Brexit fallout and thinking "What have I done?"

    If anything, the chaos and carnage that will ensue over the coming months and years will put Euroscepticism to bed- it is a pity we had to press the nuclear button to prove the absurdity of the Eurosceptic cause.
    That's what you want to happen, though, isn't it? You want it all to come crashing down, so you can stand atop the wreckage and sneer down at all the racist, homophobic, nihilistic, white working class and pensioners that you hate so much. You don't understand that you own this as much as anyone who voted for out. It's your favoured politicians and commentators, your way of thinking that has driven the country to this point. You've tried to mold the country into the way that you want it, want us to think just like you do, never for once thinking that you and your ilk might be doing more harm than good.
    Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem tribal zealots have sown this, and now you're reaping it. If you could have just stepped back a little, tried to bring us along, rather than sneer and belittle us, it might have worked- I'd have gladly voted to stay in an EEC type of organisation, rather than an EU, but you couldn't, you knew you were right, morally superior, and we were stupid. Well, now the stupid people have won, and for good or bad, we've all got to take a bite of the shit sandwich and chew it down. Enjoy.
    Well said.

    What has become clear during the last month is how much some 'sophisticated' people hate their fellow countrymen.
    Fwiw, my theory is that TFS is the alter ego of a Surrey stockbroker.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    Morning all,

    Hammond seems surprisingly high on BF at 90 (next leader).

    Has he ruled out standing?

    He's given interviews saying this is not the best way forward and the job now is to limit the damage. So he's ruled himself out.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    A Scottish Tory writes..

    'Scotland will have to set up a domestic central bank and adopt the Euro, that seems beyond question: but this is hardly much of a requirement given the position we have now reached. Scotland has an immense opportunity now, if it is properly negotiated and candidly explained by the Scottish Government to the Scottish People; and while Government would have to be honest and frank about the many challenges Scotland will face in the early days of being a new nation, I believe that is now the only decent option which Scotland has. There is no intellectually honest way to justify a cowering acceptance of England’s negative and self destructive decision, and ‘play along’ for the sake of things.

    I don’t want to leave the UK, I’ve always been proud to be British and Scottish: but England chose to abandon the British values in which I believe. England is leaving Britain, but Scotland should keep true to the inclusive and international spirit that once made Britain admired. We will still have many ties of course to the UK, but Scotland should now become independent, and take its seat among the nations of the EU.'

    http://tinyurl.com/zxhpywm

    A hugely significant piece I fear.
    Yep, I support the Union - but you really can't argue against any of that.
    Scotland might be a bit less Pro change-of-masters when they realise that no only would they lose rUK funding but they would be asked to be a net contributor to the EU. King Log and King Stork anyone?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,313

    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:

    IanB2 said:

    If Boris DOESN'T get PM, I wonder what sort of mood he will be in and how will he behave?!

    Relief I would imagine.

    He torched the building for the sake of his career, but he didn't really want a career trying to sweep up the ashes
    I think the Tory party is suffering it's worst crisis since Neville Chamberlain. This dwarfs the Thatcher matricide, and it's near extinction under IDS.

    The acrimony is terrible- listening to Grieve and Soubry for starters. Cameron and Osborne must be seething. And, like the many other Brits, some Tory MP's will be looking at a Brexit fallout and thinking "What have I done?"

    If anything, the chaos and carnage that will ensue over the coming months and years will put Euroscepticism to bed- it is a pity we had to press the nuclear button to prove the absurdity of the Eurosceptic cause.
    That's what you want to happen, though, isn't it? You want it all to come crashing down, so you can stand atop the wreckage and sneer down at all the racist, homophobic, nihilistic, white working class and pensioners that you hate so much. You don't understand that you own this as much as anyone who voted for out. It's your favoured politicians and commentators, your way of thinking that has driven the country to this point. You've tried to mold the country into the way that you want it, want us to think just like you do, never for once thinking that you and your ilk might be doing more harm than good.
    Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem tribal zealots have sown this, and now you're reaping it. If you could have just stepped back a little, tried to bring us along, rather than sneer and belittle us, it might have worked- I'd have gladly voted to stay in an EEC type of organisation, rather than an EU, but you couldn't, you knew you were right, morally superior, and we were stupid. Well, now the stupid people have won, and for good or bad, we've all got to take a bite of the shit sandwich and chew it down. Enjoy.
    Every politician in this country should be sent a copy of that. Bloody well said, that man.
This discussion has been closed.