Btw I'm not convinced we can wait until October to get a new regime installed. We need to set out what happens next asap. There could be a very strong case for a coronation.
Sam Coates Times Retweeted Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 4m4 minutes ago Just arrived in Scotland. Place is going wild over the vote. They took their country back, just like we will take America back. No games!
Sam Coates Times Retweeted Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 4m4 minutes ago Just arrived in Scotland. Place is going wild over the vote. They took their country back, just like we will take America back. No games!
He really is thick.
As are his followers who will lap up his tweets without thought.
People on this board need to understand movements in financial markets. A 'surprise' has happened, there is a new equilibrium path for the economy, financial prices jump (in this case down) to the new path. This transition involves *overshooting* followed by gradual reversal of that overshooting. We have just witnessed the overshooting. If you want to profit medium term yoou now have a buying opportunity.
The immediate question is whether you are right that we reached the bottom in one go. My instinct is that you are right for today - then people spend the weekend reflecting on all the implications, and the very real uncertainty about what lies in store for us politically and economically means that the sell off continues next week. So I would be very wary about going bargain hunting today.
If there are more 'surprises' to come you may be right. Otherwise expectations are already 'priced in'. A weekend's reflection is irrelevant.
Bollox it is priced in. Of course we haven't reached the bottom...we are on the course of economic uncertainty for the foreseeable future with the fluctuations, swings and risks that it entails.
Oh look, the FTSE is now pretty much exactly where it was five days ago.
A week ago the polls were calling a significant leave win and the markets were jittery.
But let's see how the markets are and sterling are going in six months, and let's see how economic growth is. We'll talk then.
Things will be alright though because you can still blame migrants and Europe for all our ills. It works.
Correct - I'm also concerned where we'll be after a full trading week friday next BUT my judgement is under a cloud currently!!!!
It's obvious. Markets need stability to thrive. The UK has plunged itself into a suicidal economic and political crisis with no end in sight. FFS- Carney has to come out today to make an announcement because there was a run on bank shares. And what happens when the house price crash comes and people are plunged into negative equity. And people here think the market has bottomed out today. What planet are they on?
For all the talk of a polling disaster, the online polls didn't really do that badly. Aside from that weird Populus that they must really be wishing they'd sat on.
I can honestly say that I am no longer sure that Scotland is better off in the UK
This is the problem with emotions running high combined with a lack of sleep. None of the problems the SNP had before- defence, foreign affairs, etc.- have ceased to exist.
Nobody yet knows what deal the UK will get, but if Scotland leaves before exit negotiations are complete it goes straight to the back of the queue for membership (including access to the Single Market). rUK is by far a more important market than the EU for Scotland, whether exports or imports. rUK currently subsidises Scotland to the tune of £8bn per year, and unless Germany doubles its net contribution and diverts it all towards Scotland, that money isn't being replaced by the EU.
At the end of the day, Britain is a functioning state whether it leaves the EU or remains in it: Scotland isn't, and hasn't been for 300 years.
Don't think you understand: when even Jo Rowling is havering, it means support for the Union has totally gone, no matter what. I was strongly opposed to the the break up of the UK, but this morning all my NO friends are switching sides. I accept how difficult the process of Scottish independence will be, but now I think it is inevitable. That is not tiredness- I live in Estonia and slept well, it is just a recognition that a bomb has gone off in English/Scottish relations and this time, there is no going back.
How do you think Sturgeon will play it? I expect her to play the long game. Demand full representation in Article 50 negotiations and aim to present a fait accompli to the Scottish people to retain the status quo inside the EU.
If I was the EU I would see finding some way to allow Scotland continuity of membership - despite all the pseudo-legal advice given prior that this cannot be done - as a top priority. Salvaging something from Brexit would help them head off the calls for leave that will emerge within other EU countries.
But Madrid will veto anything that facilitates secession.
As, indeed, will Britain. They can drag Scottish independence negotiations out beyond the completion of Article 50, or they can complete them while they retain EU membership and drop Scotland outside the Single Market.
I have a suspicion that if Scotland votes again, it will vote again to remain in the UK, even if we leave the EU, and especially if by the time of the new referendum we have negotiated good terms with the EU.
I am no Corbyn cheerleader, but I genuinely don't understand the argument that anyone else would be a better leader. The Labour "moderates" were ALL huge cheerleaders for the Remain Campaign, so they've also just shown they are utterly useless at reading the public mood too.
If there's a Blairite put in (culturally liberal, but economically similar to the Tories), I genuinely think they'll get utterly wiped out in the North in the next election. Labour really needs the exact opposite: economically left-wing, but socially/culturally conservative.
Yes. They need to begin looking at how to out UKIP, UKIP. While keeping the trendy Londoners on board. After today it is not going to be easy for Labour to reconnect with voters. Especially if the MPs defy the will of the members and depose a leader that at least has a chance of doing that.
Sat talking to some of our continuity New Labour members at the count last night and I put exactly that point. If we are out of touch with our electorate how would a new leader even more out of touch with our electorate help?
The problem is that for many party apparatchiks the out voting Labour people are ignorant and racist and need to be TOLD that MORE CONVINCINGLY
Mr. H, aye, but Survation did that at the General Election and regretted it. So, at least Populus had the nerve to run it (but I do think polls should not be released on the day of the vote).
Sturgeon is clever. She'll know that Brexit reinforces the Union in the short term. Which NO voters in 2014 are going to be persuaded by a hard land Border with rUK ? She'll wait, blame the recession and extra Austerity on the English and Stoke grevience. But I think #indyref2 will only be on the cards if we leave the Single Market. Scotland do well as a home for rUK companies than need single market access but want to be on the Other island of Britain. The question is whether her activists and predecessor let her play it long post the 2021 Hollywood elections ?
Yes, marketing Scotland as the major anglophone power within the EU will be a great sell. They just need a handful of business relocations from England and it will be unarguable.
So. How long until EdF pull out of the Hinckley Point deal?
That's a nice little bonus! Dreadful project.
EDF have been desperate for a reason to drop Hinckley Point for a while. A client who works at Dungerness for EDF said that even if the vote was a close remain they would drop Hinckley using the line about Long term political uncertainty.
Yes, the board had a few resignations over political interference recently as well. Hopefully the government will drop it on our side now as well.
I think it will go-which in turn begs the question where the generating capacity will be made up from. Could result in a big boost for tidal/wave (he says hopefully)
I'll stick my neck out and say that the SNP would lose a second Sindy Referendum handsomely. 38% of Scots support Brexit, and most Unionists in 2014 were voting to save the Union, not the EU. the arguments for the Union are the same now as they were then.
Has anyone got combined votes for Inner and Outer London ?
The Telegraph gives the region of London as Remain 59.9%, Leave 40.1%
Outer London would have been quite close as Leave won five boroughs and the big Remain wins were in Inner London.
Ardent Leavers should look at the results in inner London and pause. Leave wasn't just defeated there, it was annihilated. This is not just a metropolitan bubble, this is the metropolis.
The political debate in inner London is radically different from that elsewhere and some hard thinking needs to be done by those now about to take charge as to how they are going to address that democratic divide, especially as London is making the money that the rest of the country is spending.
Steamrollering inner London into submission won't work in anything other than the very short term.
Which is why there will be a compromise.
The door is barred to that now. 76 million Turks are joining the EU, don't you know?
Well I hope people such as yourself make your voice heard so we can get a good compromise.
Leave campaigned on a clear prospectus. It would be a fraud on the voters not to implement it. I shall watch with interest as Leave attempts to do so.
Leave no longer exists.
Wrong, it is the new nasty party in the land of the blind.
No, it no longer exists. The absence of Boris and Gove from the airwaves is instructive.
Boris is absent from the airwaves because he just ran down the street into his car, pursued by a hundred angry journalists, his having realised that he has not a single answer to any of the questions that his own actions have created.....
Mr. Bob, you may be right about Scotland leaving, but had the situation been very slightly different, would the story be about England/Wales being held captive/forced to remain in?
It would have been an equally fair argument. I had hoped that Remain would carry all territories. Sadly we have ended up with a hopelessly divided nation.
People on this board need to understand movements in financial markets. A 'surprise' has happened, there is a new equilibrium path for the economy, financial prices jump (in this case down) to the new path. This transition involves *overshooting* followed by gradual reversal of that overshooting. We have just witnessed the overshooting. If you want to profit medium term yoou now have a buying opportunity.
The immediate question is whether you are right that we reached the bottom in one go. My instinct is that you are right for today - then people spend the weekend reflecting on all the implications, and the very real uncertainty about what lies in store for us politically and economically means that the sell off continues next week. So I would be very wary about going bargain hunting today.
If there are more 'surprises' to come you may be right. Otherwise expectations are already 'priced in'. A weekend's reflection is irrelevant.
Bollox it is priced in. Of course we haven't reached the bottom...we are on the course of economic uncertainty for the foreseeable future with the fluctuations, swings and risks that it entails.
There is always uncertainty. But the biggest uncertainty in the past few months has now been resolved. Of course adjustments must be expected because things have to be unravelled. But from now on we know the direction of travel at least.
You might know, but it is far from obvious to me. I would say that waking up this morning there is a very lengthy list of things that, suddenly, we do not know.
One certainty, anything goes wrong and anyone who voted leave will be blamed.
I've never been in a position where I've been in complete opposition so, in a way, I can now be what these people have been. It feels good, it feels powerful, no downside and no responsibility. A strange elating feeling.
Now to figure out who to hate and hound first, so many to choose from!,
Has anyone got combined votes for Inner and Outer London ?
The Telegraph gives the region of London as Remain 59.9%, Leave 40.1%
Outer London would have been quite close as Leave won five boroughs and the big Remain wins were in Inner London.
Ardent Leavers should look at the results in inner London and pause. Leave wasn't just defeated there, it was annihilated. This is not just a metropolitan bubble, this is the metropolis.
The political debate in inner London is radically different from that elsewhere and some hard thinking needs to be done by those now about to take charge as to how they are going to address that democratic divide, especially as London is making the money that the rest of the country is spending.
Steamrollering inner London into submission won't work in anything other than the very short term.
Which is why there will be a compromise.
The door is barred to that now. 76 million Turks are joining the EU, don't you know?
Well I hope people such as yourself make your voice heard so we can get a good compromise.
Leave campaigned on a clear prospectus. It would be a fraud on the voters not to implement it. I shall watch with interest as Leave attempts to do so.
Leave no longer exists.
Wrong, it is the new nasty party in the land of the blind.
No, it no longer exists. The absence of Boris and Gove from the airwaves is instructive.
Boris is absent from the airwaves because he just ran down the street into his car, pursued by a hundred angry journalists, his having realised that he has not a single answer to any of the questions that his own actions have created.....
And a rent a mob of lefties shouting abuse at him.
Sturgeon is clever. She'll know that Brexit reinforces the Union in the short term. Which NO voters in 2014 are going to be persuaded by a hard land Border with rUK ? She'll wait, blame the recession and extra Austerity on the English and Stoke grevience. But I think #indyref2 will only be on the cards if we leave the Single Market. Scotland do well as a home for rUK companies than need single market access but want to be on the Other island of Britain. The question is whether her activists and predecessor let her play it long post the 2021 Hollywood elections ?
Yes, marketing Scotland as the major anglophone power within the EU will be a great sell. They just need a handful of business relocations from England and it will be unarguable.
Since passporting won't be on the table how much easier to have your Euro branch in Edinburgh than Paris...
The UK is surely finished. Five years at most? The SNP's argument is now gilt-edged.
Vote Indy for penury and use of the Euro ?
I think not.
People will vote to take an economic hit if they feel distant enough from the status quo option. The scots did not feel so in 2014, they probably will now, regrettably. But given only economics was keeping them in, not enough affection, it was probably inevitable they'd go.
The only hope would be a new federal settlement for the uk, but it's probably 10 years too late for that.
CEO = Will Straw who lost to a Conservative at GE2015 Head Strategy Ryan = Who headed up Strategy for the Lib Dems at GE2015 and lost most of their MPs LabourIN = Alan Johnson who lost the deputy election to Harriet Harman
Lab remainers trying to blame Corbyn in order to install a significantly more Europhile candidate.
LOL that will work.
Perhaps Tony Blair would come back I understand hes popular with Labour Members
of the PLP
If my MP signs a letter to get rid of Corbyn.
I will be signing a letter to deselect my MP
Everything Corbyn touches turns to shit. He has to go.
And so he should be replaced by someone just involved in "Britain Stronger In Europe", the worst political campaign in history??
Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.
Corbyn closer to Lab core voters on realistic view of EU than anyone proposed by Blairites as his replacement.
Tony Blair for REMAIN was LEAVES best asset
Blair, Osborne, Mandelson, Campbell, Kinnock, Farron, Salmond - all in one easy-to-punch movement under the banner of BSE..... What could possibly go wrong?
Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.
That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?
No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.
Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.
Exactly right. He should go and go now.
Corbyn got exactly what he wanted. The Tories now own Brexit utterly and ever problem from now on will be fully and squarely their fault. Jez just has to count the days to 2020.
So, here we are. Dont want to say we told you so, but we told you so. There has been a lot of arrogance. You can ban someone for saying something you dont like, but you are just shooting the messenger. You ignored the data. You ignored the Polls showing a statistical tie. You ignored the betting data that showed most votes were on LEAVE. We told you. The idea of Political Betting is that people vote with their heads & wallet rather than their hearts. If Freedom of Speech is the immune system of Society, Political Correctness is the AIDS.
I can honestly say that I am no longer sure that Scotland is better off in the UK
This is the problem with emotions running high combined with a lack of sleep. None of the problems the SNP had before- defence, foreign affairs, etc.- have ceased to exist.
Nobody yet knows what deal the UK will get, but if Scotland leaves before exit negotiations are complete it goes straight to the back of the queue for membership (including access to the Single Market). rUK is by far a more important market than the EU for Scotland, whether exports or imports. rUK currently subsidises Scotland to the tune of £8bn per year, and unless Germany doubles its net contribution and diverts it all towards Scotland, that money isn't being replaced by the EU.
At the end of the day, Britain is a functioning state whether it leaves the EU or remains in it: Scotland isn't, and hasn't been for 300 years.
Don't think you understand: when even Jo Rowling is havering, it means support for the Union has totally gone, no matter what. I was strongly opposed to the the break up of the UK, but this morning all my NO friends are switching sides. I accept how difficult the process of Scottish independence will be, but now I think it is inevitable. That is not tiredness- I live in Estonia and slept well, it is just a recognition that a bomb has gone off in English/Scottish relations and this time, there is no going back.
How do you think Sturgeon will play it? I expect her to play the long game. Demand full representation in Article 50 negotiations and aim to present a fait accompli to the Scottish people to retain the status quo inside the EU.
If I was the EU I would see finding some way to allow Scotland continuity of membership - despite all the pseudo-legal advice given prior that this cannot be done - as a top priority. Salvaging something from Brexit would help them head off the calls for leave that will emerge within other EU countries.
But Madrid will veto anything that facilitates secession.
As, indeed, will Britain. They can drag Scottish independence negotiations out beyond the completion of Article 50, or they can complete them while they retain EU membership and drop Scotland outside the Single Market.
CEO = Will Straw who lost to a Conservative at GE2015 Head Strategy Ryan = Who headed up Strategy for the Lib Dems at GE2015 and lost most of their MPs LabourIN = Alan Johnson who lost the deputy election to Harriet Harman
It always looked a fucking shambles as soon as it came out with the initials of BSE
Lab remainers trying to blame Corbyn in order to install a significantly more Europhile candidate.
LOL that will work.
Perhaps Tony Blair would come back I understand hes popular with Labour Members
of the PLP
Do we have europhiles any more? The people have spoken, the issue is settled .
Time to move on.
A 52-48 issue is hardly settled.
It is, because there is zero appetite from anyone to go through that ugly, divisive process again.
Out is the de-facto state now. It must been seen through and there is zero prospect of people voting to rejoin with the full accession procedures to go through.
All the special opt outs, special deals, budget rebates that were negotiated over the past 30 years, none of that exists anymore. The British people have repudiated it.
52 - 48 the other way would have seen the issue still alive, but now, yes it's entirely settled.
The UK is surely finished. Five years at most? The SNP's argument is now gilt-edged.
Vote Indy for penury and use of the Euro ?
I think not.
People will vote to take an economic hit if they feel distant enough from the status quo option. The scots did not feel so in 2014, they probably will now, regrettably. But given only economics was keeping them in, not enough affection, it was probably inevitable they'd go.
The only hope would be a new federal settlement for the uk, but it's probably 10 years too late for that.
Emotional ties rather than economics won it in 2014. People like David L didn't go out campaigning to save a few pounds a week.
We really need to bury the idea for good that economic interests are all that matter to people.
So, here we are. Dont want to say we told you so, but we told you so. There has been a lot of arrogance. You can ban someone for saying something you dont like, but you are just shooting the messenger. You ignored the data. You ignored the Polls showing a statistical tie. You ignored the betting data that showed most votes were on LEAVE. We told you. The idea of Political Betting is that people vote with their heads & wallet rather than their hearts. If Freedom of Speech is the immune system of Society, Political Correctness is the AIDS.
Que ?
He/she seems to be labouring under the delusion that those of us that didn't like the result lost money on it.
I can honestly say that I am no longer sure that Scotland is better off in the UK
This is the problem with emotions running high combined with a lack of sleep. None of the problems the SNP had before- defence, foreign affairs, etc.- have ceased to exist.
Nobody yet knows what deal the UK will get, but if Scotland leaves before exit negotiations are complete it goes straight to the back of the queue for membership (including access to the Single Market). rUK is by far a more important market than the EU for Scotland, whether exports or imports. rUK currently subsidises Scotland to the tune of £8bn per year, and unless Germany doubles its net contribution and diverts it all towards Scotland, that money isn't being replaced by the EU.
At the end of the day, Britain is a functioning state whether it leaves the EU or remains in it: Scotland isn't, and hasn't been for 300 years.
Don't think you understand: when even Jo Rowling is havering, it means support for the Union has totally gone, no matter what. I was strongly opposed to the the break up of the UK, but this morning all my NO friends are switching sides. I accept how difficult the process of Scottish independence will be, but now I think it is inevitable. That is not tiredness- I live in Estonia and slept well, it is just a recognition that a bomb has gone off in English/Scottish relations and this time, there is no going back.
How do you think Sturgeon will play it? I expect her to play the long game. Demand full representation in Article 50 negotiations and aim to present a fait accompli to the Scottish people to retain the status quo inside the EU.
If I was the EU I would see finding some way to allow Scotland continuity of membership - despite all the pseudo-legal advice given prior that this cannot be done - as a top priority. Salvaging something from Brexit would help them head off the calls for leave that will emerge within other EU countries.
But Madrid will veto anything that facilitates secession.
As, indeed, will Britain. They can drag Scottish independence negotiations out beyond the completion of Article 50, or they can complete them while they retain EU membership and drop Scotland outside the Single Market.
I am no Corbyn cheerleader, but I genuinely don't understand the argument that anyone else would be a better leader. The Labour "moderates" were ALL huge cheerleaders for the Remain Campaign, so they've also just shown they are utterly useless at reading the public mood too.
If there's a Blairite put in (culturally liberal, but economically similar to the Tories), I genuinely think they'll get utterly wiped out in the North in the next election. Labour really needs the exact opposite: economically left-wing, but socially/culturally conservative.
Yes. They need to begin looking at how to out UKIP, UKIP. While keeping the trendy Londoners on board. After today it is not going to be easy for Labour to reconnect with voters. Especially if the MPs defy the will of the members and depose a leader that at least has a chance of doing that.
Sat talking to some of our continuity New Labour members at the count last night and I put exactly that point. If we are out of touch with our electorate how would a new leader even more out of touch with our electorate help?
The problem is that for many party apparatchiks the out voting Labour people are ignorant and racist and need to be TOLD that MORE CONVINCINGLY
Labour need to decide who they are and what are their values. Do they stand for the working man, with his values, concerns and prejudices, or do they stand for an educated metropolitan elite who believe in unlimited unskilled immigration?
They have tried doing both, and as we have seen it didn't work.
Lab remainers trying to blame Corbyn in order to install a significantly more Europhile candidate.
LOL that will work.
Perhaps Tony Blair would come back I understand hes popular with Labour Members
of the PLP
Do we have europhiles any more? The people have spoken, the issue is settled .
Time to move on.
A 52-48 issue is hardly settled.
It is, because there is zero appetite from anyone to go through that ugly, divisive process again.
Out is the de-facto state now. It must been seen through and there is zero prospect of people voting to rejoin with the full accession procedures to go through.
All the special opt outs, special deals, budget rebates that were negotiated over the past 30 years, none of that exists anymore. The British people have repudiated it.
52 - 48 the other way would have seen the issue still alive, but now, yes it's entirely settled.
As far as Europe goes, yes. Internally this has just begun and it's going to be a hell of a wild ride.
One certainty, anything goes wrong and anyone who voted leave will be blamed.
I've never been in a position where I've been in complete opposition so, in a way, I can now be what these people have been. It feels good, it feels powerful, no downside and no responsibility. A strange elating feeling.
Now to figure out who to hate and hound first, so many to choose from!,
Chest thumping nonsense. No one knows who anyone voted for. As of today the campaigns don't exist either, the only visible face of Leave or Remain are the politicians that campaigned for them, the only party in government is the Conservative Party elected at GE2015, just as they were yesterday. The only difference is that government has been given a mandate from the electorate to leave the EU.
Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.
That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?
No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.
Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.
Exactly right. He should go and go now.
Corbyn got exactly what he wanted. The Tories now own Brexit utterly and ever problem from now on will be fully and squarely their fault. Jez just has to count the days to 2020.
And of course, voters will forget that he stood for the same position as George Osborne...
There is a petition with 79,000 signatures “We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.”
I think Cameron is hoping that a new deal will be offered by the EU, and that the fresh PM will get a chance to offer it to us again. Hence: wait and don't use Article 50 yet, resign and be the fall guy, and give enough time for people to calm down on both sides.
As, indeed, will Britain. They can drag Scottish independence negotiations out beyond the completion of Article 50, or they can complete them while they retain EU membership and drop Scotland outside the Single Market.
Article 49: Any European State which respects the values referred to in Article 2 and is committed to promoting them may apply to become a member of the Union... The applicant State shall address its application to the Council, which shall act unanimously... This agreement shall be submitted for ratification by all the contracting States in accordance with their respective constitutional requirements.
Financial Times @FT Regions with the biggest votes for Leave are also the most economically dependent on the EU http://on.ft.com/28SsiHq
If leaving the eu is a big mistake, the failure of the organisation to justify its existence to millions will become ever more baffling. What is it about itself that it could not convince people of its worth, if it is do apparent. It can talk about people ignoring facts or being led astray, but why did they do so?
I am no Corbyn cheerleader, but I genuinely don't understand the argument that anyone else would be a better leader. The Labour "moderates" were ALL huge cheerleaders for the Remain Campaign, so they've also just shown they are utterly useless at reading the public mood too.
If there's a Blairite put in (culturally liberal, but economically similar to the Tories), I genuinely think they'll get utterly wiped out in the North in the next election. Labour really needs the exact opposite: economically left-wing, but socially/culturally conservative.
Yes. They need to begin looking at how to out UKIP, UKIP. While keeping the trendy Londoners on board. After today it is not going to be easy for Labour to reconnect with voters. Especially if the MPs defy the will of the members and depose a leader that at least has a chance of doing that.
Sat talking to some of our continuity New Labour members at the count last night and I put exactly that point. If we are out of touch with our electorate how would a new leader even more out of touch with our electorate help?
The problem is that for many party apparatchiks the out voting Labour people are ignorant and racist and need to be TOLD that MORE CONVINCINGLY
Quite. It's ironic that, a year ago, the Blairites were constantly pontificating about how it was "arrogant" and "anti-democratic" for Labour members to think they could change the public's mind on issues like austerity and welfare .... yet now, when it comes to the EU, the Blairites are the first to say that Labour should take a "no compromise with the electorate" approach, and just shout at core Labour voters that they're wrong rather than try to meet them halfway.
The Blairites are just as ideological as the Corbynites, they're just ideological about different issues. But last night showed that uncritical Europhilia is a more toxic ideology than a strident anti-austerity message is (though Corbyn's comments about various dodgy terrorists are more problematic, obviously).
I can honestly say that I am no longer sure that Scotland is better off in the UK
This is the problem with emotions running high combined with a lack of sleep. None of the problems the SNP had before- defence, foreign affairs, etc.- have ceased to exist.
Nobody yet knows what deal the UK will get, but if Scotland leaves before exit negotiations are complete it goes straight to the back of the queue for membership (including access to the Single Market). rUK is by far a more important market than the EU for Scotland, whether exports or imports. rUK currently subsidises Scotland to the tune of £8bn per year, and unless Germany doubles its net contribution and diverts it all towards Scotland, that money isn't being replaced by the EU.
At the end of the day, Britain is a functioning state whether it leaves the EU or remains in it: Scotland isn't, and hasn't been for 300 years.
Don't think you understand: when even Jo Rowling is havering, it means support for the Union has totally gone, no matter what. I was strongly opposed to the the break up of the UK, but this morning all my NO friends are switching sides. I accept how difficult the process of Scottish independence will be, but now I think it is inevitable. That is not tiredness- I live in Estonia and slept well, it is just a recognition that a bomb has gone off in English/Scottish relations and this time, there is no going back.
How do you think Sturgeon will play it? I expect her to play the long game. Demand full representation in Article 50 negotiations and aim to present a fait accompli to the Scottish people to retain the status quo inside the EU.
If I was the EU I would see finding some way to allow Scotland continuity of membership - despite all the pseudo-legal advice given prior that this cannot be done - as a top priority. Salvaging something from Brexit would help them head off the calls for leave that will emerge within other EU countries.
But Madrid will veto anything that facilitates secession.
As, indeed, will Britain. They can drag Scottish independence negotiations out beyond the completion of Article 50, or they can complete them while they retain EU membership and drop Scotland outside the Single Market.
Mr. Wanderer, if it's a coronation, May staying out of the fray could win the day.
Hooray?
Maybe. It would be someone least-hated, I would think. Perhaps it won't happen but I struggle to see how the country will cope with a lame-duck leader for what are going to be four tumultuous months.
My whole Facebook feed having some kind of mass breakdown that makes the reaction to last year's GE result look like crocodile tears, and makes Alastair Meeks look measured.
One certainty, anything goes wrong and anyone who voted leave will be blamed.
I've never been in a position where I've been in complete opposition so, in a way, I can now be what these people have been. It feels good, it feels powerful, no downside and no responsibility. A strange elating feeling.
Now to figure out who to hate and hound first, so many to choose from!,
Chest thumping nonsense. No one knows who anyone voted for. As of today the campaigns don't exist either, the only visible face of Leave or Remain are the politicians that campaigned for them, the only party in government is the Conservative Party elected at GE2015, just as they were yesterday. The only difference is that government has been given a mandate from the electorate to leave the EU.
You for a start, then. You represent what I despise.
This is easy, I like this feeling. i understand these people now. This can fuel you for years, decades even.
My whole Facebook feed having some kind of mass breakdown that makes the reaction to last year's GE result look like crocodile tears, and makes Alastair Meeks look measured.
Oddly, the remainers on mine are rather accepting of the decision. Although that might be because one of them is about to give birth, and what's the point of being unhappy at such a time?
BTW, will hopefully get a chance to reply to your gracious PM later.
Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.
That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?
No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.
Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.
Exactly right. He should go and go now.
How do you think that will happen?
We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020
Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
It's not just your party. The Labour vote is disintegrating. The whole point of the party is to win elections to make a difference.
It's disintegrating because the core vote disagrees with Labour MPs on cultural issues like the EU. Where is the logic in replacing Corbyn with someone even more out of step with them on those issues?? Where is the evidence that the "moderates" are any better than Corbyn at winning elections when many of them (Chuka, Kendall, Emma Reynolds) were just involved in designing the strategy of the Remain Campaign?
I am no Corbyn cheerleader, but I genuinely don't understand the argument that anyone else would be a better leader. The Labour "moderates" were ALL huge cheerleaders for the Remain Campaign, so they've also just shown they are utterly useless at reading the public mood too.
If there's a Blairite put in (culturally liberal, but economically similar to the Tories), I genuinely think they'll get utterly wiped out in the North in the next election. Labour really needs the exact opposite: economically left-wing, but socially/culturally conservative.
Yes. They need to begin looking at how to out UKIP, UKIP. While keeping the trendy Londoners on board. After today it is not going to be easy for Labour to reconnect with voters. Especially if the MPs defy the will of the members and depose a leader that at least has a chance of doing that.
Sat talking to some of our continuity New Labour members at the count last night and I put exactly that point. If we are out of touch with our electorate how would a new leader even more out of touch with our electorate help?
The problem is that for many party apparatchiks the out voting Labour people are ignorant and racist and need to be TOLD that MORE CONVINCINGLY
I gave the anecdote of a few weeks ago. I attended a labour organised remain event, not many people there, despite having two good speakers. In the entire audience only one person put a position that they werent happy with the EU. Utterly polite and picked up the speakers argument about the consequences of leaving, saying he had said exactly the same thing about joining the euro.
What was staggering was the abuse he got by the former MP, he was actually shouting at him, calling him stupid, listing nearby european businesses and how theyll leave. The speaker on the panel then started to rant red faced at him. It was quite extraordinary. There was no comprehension of the difficulties caused by immigration. A local councillor said she welcomed the diversity they bring and it was only ignorance and intolerance that made them want to leave.
My whole Facebook feed having some kind of mass breakdown that makes the reaction to last year's GE result look like crocodile tears, and makes Alastair Meeks look measured.
Corbyn was the front man of that campaign for Labour.
That would be Alan Johnson. See much our Alan did you.....?
No. Labour had a position for Remain. Corbyn is leader. He is the de-facto front man. He did as little as he could.
Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.
Exactly right. He should go and go now.
How do you think that will happen?
We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020
Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
It's not just your party. The Labour vote is disintegrating. The whole point of the party is to win elections to make a difference.
Corbyn can't do that. Worse, it looks like he doesn't even want to try to do that. He's on a massive ego trip and must go.
The three-quidders think it's their party. That's the problem. Dan Hodges says motion of no confidence in Corbyn on Monday. Won't work. Somehow, he'll hang on.
My whole Facebook feed having some kind of mass breakdown that makes the reaction to last year's GE result look like crocodile tears, and makes Alastair Meeks look measured.
Oddly, the remainers on mine are rather accepting of the decision. Although that might be because one of them is about to give birth, and what's the point of being unhappy at such a time?
BTW, will hopefully get a chance to reply to your gracious PM later.
Here is an example: "If you voted to leave Europe - unfollow me. Fuck off. Fuck off you small minded racist. Fuck off. I am an immigrant. I have hired Americans. I know the value of immigrants. I am one. And you voted against that. Fuck off. Unfriend me"
FWIW I reckon that we'll have another referendum within 2 years, if the EU offers genuine reform and we'll vote to stay in a formalised two speed Europe.
I think Cameron is hoping that a new deal will be offered by the EU, and that the fresh PM will get a chance to offer it to us again. Hence: wait and don't use Article 50 yet, resign and be the fall guy, and give enough time for people to calm down on both sides.
His resignation speech was unambiguous, the people have spoken, it must and shall be carried out.
Unelected Pm leading biggest negotiations. Not good.
Oh FFs not this again !!!
Brown signed Lisbon FFS but no complaints then or is it only Labour leaders that can take momentous decisions behind closed doors against the will of the voters having refused a referendum that was originally offered in the manifesto?
Mr. Sandpit, no idea. He'd've won convincingly. I can only assume it was complacent arrogance.
I think it's very important that our 'destination' is agreed as soon as possible. While our destination is unknown, investment decisions will be put on hold, which could tip the economy into recession.
Having won the referendum on the anti-immigration votes of the WWC I cannot see how anything but "completely out" is going to wash.
If Leave maintain Freedom of Movement then then Remainers are going to feel they cheated their way to a win and half their own supporters are going to be incandescent. I just can't see it. It looks like "completely out" to me
The WWC can now be put back on the shelf. They're no longer needed.
I suspect you are right, just the cannon fodder. Must be one of the biggest cons in our history (and that's saying something). Duping millions of voters to vote Leave on the promise of controlling our borders knowing full well it's not going to happen.
Better than that, the Leavers want to enlist Remainers as cover for their betrayal.
I hope they don't fall for it. Cameron is right to put negotiations on hold until we have Brexiters in the leadership positions to undertake them. Leave now have to be held accountable for where we go from here.
There is a petition with 79,000 signatures “We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.”
So, here we are. Dont want to say we told you so, but we told you so. There has been a lot of arrogance. You can ban someone for saying something you dont like, but you are just shooting the messenger. You ignored the data. You ignored the Polls showing a statistical tie. You ignored the betting data that showed most votes were on LEAVE. We told you. The idea of Political Betting is that people vote with their heads & wallet rather than their hearts. If Freedom of Speech is the immune system of Society, Political Correctness is the AIDS.
Que ?
Yep. You probably dont get it. That's why you all got it wrong.
Comments
http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2016/06/prime-minister-resigns
What a day.
Anyone looking for somewhere to invest their Betfair haul from last night might wish to look at the leader exit dates.
Cameron Jul-Sep 2016 available at 1.25
Corbyn Jul-Sep 2016 available at 1.32
Hooray?
VERY well out of all this.
I think not.
Tony Blair for REMAIN was LEAVES best asset
Personally I hope they can.
The problem is that for many party apparatchiks the out voting Labour people are ignorant and racist and need to be TOLD that MORE CONVINCINGLY
Could result in a big boost for tidal/wave (he says hopefully)
Labour weakness played a key part in the result. He owns that. He can't blame others like he did when he was on the backbenches.
It would have been an equally fair argument. I had hoped that Remain would carry all territories. Sadly we have ended up with a hopelessly divided nation.
I've never been in a position where I've been in complete opposition so, in a way, I can now be what these people have been. It feels good, it feels powerful, no downside and no responsibility. A strange elating feeling.
Now to figure out who to hate and hound first, so many to choose from!,
The only hope would be a new federal settlement for the uk, but it's probably 10 years too late for that.
There has been a lot of arrogance. You can ban someone for saying something you dont like, but you are just shooting the messenger.
You ignored the data.
You ignored the Polls showing a statistical tie.
You ignored the betting data that showed most votes were on LEAVE.
We told you.
The idea of Political Betting is that people vote with their heads & wallet rather than their hearts. Boy, you've been getting that wrong for a while.
If Freedom of Speech is the immune system of Society, Political Correctness is the AIDS.
CEO = Will Straw who lost to a Conservative at GE2015
Head Strategy Ryan = Who headed up Strategy for the Lib Dems at GE2015 and lost most of their MPs
LabourIN = Alan Johnson who lost the deputy election to Harriet Harman
The new Pm is going to have one hell of a baptism of fire
I do agree with you, however, that a more decisive result, either way, would have diminished the domestic political uncertainty.
(Pretty tired of the Rune Readers & Mystic Megs.)
Financial Times @FT
Regions with the biggest votes for Leave are also the most economically dependent on the EU http://on.ft.com/28SsiHq
Out is the de-facto state now. It must been seen through and there is zero prospect of people voting to rejoin with the full accession procedures to go through.
All the special opt outs, special deals, budget rebates that were negotiated over the past 30 years, none of that exists anymore. The British people have repudiated it.
52 - 48 the other way would have seen the issue still alive, but now, yes it's entirely settled.
We really need to bury the idea for good that economic interests are all that matter to people.
We have our party back and the Kendalls and Tory lite ers aint getting it back this side of 2020
Even John Mann thinks a letter signed by 55 Tony Blair wet dreamers is daft
They have tried doing both, and as we have seen it didn't work.
Democracy and independent choice-terrible things
Article 49:
Any European State which respects the values referred to in Article 2 and is committed to promoting them may apply to become a member of the Union... The applicant State shall address its application to the Council, which shall act unanimously... This agreement shall be submitted for ratification by all the contracting States in accordance with their respective constitutional requirements.
The Blairites are just as ideological as the Corbynites, they're just ideological about different issues. But last night showed that uncritical Europhilia is a more toxic ideology than a strident anti-austerity message is (though Corbyn's comments about various dodgy terrorists are more problematic, obviously).
@AP: BREAKING: Swiss central bank says it has intervened in currency markets to limit franc's rise after UK vote.
Corbyn can't do that. Worse, it looks like he doesn't even want to try to do that. He's on a massive ego trip and must go.
Scotland would have to leave Britain first, which is not on the table right now.
Bring on Chilcott
This is easy, I like this feeling. i understand these people now. This can fuel you for years, decades even.
BTW, will hopefully get a chance to reply to your gracious PM later.
What was staggering was the abuse he got by the former MP, he was actually shouting at him, calling him stupid, listing nearby european businesses and how theyll leave. The speaker on the panel then started to rant red faced at him. It was quite extraordinary. There was no comprehension of the difficulties caused by immigration. A local councillor said she welcomed the diversity they bring and it was only ignorance and intolerance that made them want to leave.
That area voted 60% leave last night.
Now he comes across as Sir Bumble Tory Shire
PS. Thanks JJ. Look forward to hearing from you.
new thread
Also how do you think JC can be toppled given make up of membership and Paucity of candidates?
Give me an alternative name.