I can honestly say that I am no longer sure that Scotland is better off in the UK
This is the problem with emotions running high combined with a lack of sleep. None of the problems the SNP had before- defence, foreign affairs, etc.- have ceased to exist.
Nobody yet knows what deal the UK will get, but if Scotland leaves before exit negotiations are complete it goes straight to the back of the queue for membership (including access to the Single Market). rUK is by far a more important market than the EU for Scotland, whether exports or imports. rUK currently subsidises Scotland to the tune of £8bn per year, and unless Germany doubles its net contribution and diverts it all towards Scotland, that money isn't being replaced by the EU.
At the end of the day, Britain is a functioning state whether it leaves the EU or remains in it: Scotland isn't, and hasn't been for 300 years.
Don't think you understand: when even Jo Rowling is havering, it means support for the Union has totally gone, no matter what. I was strongly opposed to the the break up of the UK, but this morning all my NO friends are switching sides. I accept how difficult the process of Scottish independence will be, but now I think it is inevitable. That is not tiredness- I live in Estonia and slept well, it is just a recognition that a bomb has gone off in English/Scottish relations and this time, there is no going back.
- Is Richard Tyndall around? I owe him £100 from a bet dating back to November 2010.
- Special thanks to @AndyJS and @rcs1000 for their brilliant work in analysing the par Remain vote by area. It enabled anyone following last night to come out ahead. The irrationality of the markets in the face of the evidence was a wondet to behold.
- What a class act Cameron is. But I'm not even remotely surprised at his decision or the timetable.
The lack of understanding of the announced results by the money markets was extraordinary. The pound was rising when the Glasgow and Liverpool results came through to boost the Remain total vote - without any understanding of the underlying fundamental results showing Remain was getting royally stuffed. It looked like it needed some grown ups to intervene.
Once again City 'experts' leave a lot to be desired.
Saved my bacon (at least if I ignore the value of shares and pension for the moment), to be honest. On the betting markets I started with a strong remain position and it was a race to undo my position without a loss. Thankfully the slowness on Betfair during the small hours in realising that leave had actually won already enabled me to reverse my position and I emerge with a small profit. Kudos to the guys on here who didn't believe the polls from the start and got leave at amazing odds! The financial markets were equally slow and gyrating wildly, and on the spreads i come out very nicely ahead indeed.
That's a small ignore. People retiring on DC pensions in the next few years may find conditions "challenging".
- Is Richard Tyndall around? I owe him £100 from a bet dating back to November 2010.
- Special thanks to @AndyJS and @rcs1000 for their brilliant work in analysing the par Remain vote by area. It enabled anyone following last night to come out ahead. The irrationality of the markets in the face of the evidence was a wonder to behold.
- What a class act Cameron is. But I'm not even remotely surprised at his decision or the timetable.
Yes. It won't be Boris. The assassin doesn't wear the crown. May must be the favourite (would never have credited it), and though I have a small bet on Patel, Dave's resignation makes her getting any momentum unlikely -I think she needed to be a surprise candidate against an intransigent leader to 'do a Thatcher'. I think I'd like Leadsom.
I know a certain sort of Tory likes to be disciplined by a firm woman, but really Theresa May is about as illiberal as they come, her snoopers charter is a complete disgrace, and to cap it all the fiasco over immigration that just lost it for Remain is entirely her brief.
So. How long until EdF pull out of the Hinckley Point deal?
That's a nice little bonus! Dreadful project.
EDF have been desperate for a reason to drop Hinckley Point for a while. A client who works at Dungerness for EDF said that even if the vote was a close remain they would drop Hinckley using the line about Long term political uncertainty.
Yes, the board had a few resignations over political interference recently as well. Hopefully the government will drop it on our side now as well.
People on this board need to understand movements in financial markets. A 'surprise' has happened, there is a new equilibrium path for the economy, financial prices jump (in this case down) to the new path. This transition involves *overshooting* followed by gradual reversal of that overshooting. We have just witnessed the overshooting. If you want to profit medium term yoou now have a buying opportunity.
The immediate question is whether you are right that we reached the bottom in one go. My instinct is that you are right for today - then people spend the weekend reflecting on all the implications, and the very real uncertainty about what lies in store for us politically and economically means that the sell off continues next week. So I would be very wary about going bargain hunting today.
If there are more 'surprises' to come you may be right. Otherwise expectations are already 'priced in'. A weekend's reflection is irrelevant.
Bollox it is priced in. Of course we haven't reached the bottom...we are on the course of economic uncertainty for the foreseeable future with the fluctuations, swings and risks that it entails.
A crestfallen Tony Blair up now. This is great to watch, he's more tearful than Cameron was.
He carries at least as much of the blame for this.
The real 'blame' for this lies with the utter bastards who ratified Maastricht and then Lisbon without referendums. I am a die hard Leaver now. But I'd have voted to stay in with pleasure if we had forced the EU to accept a two-speed EU when we had the chance. The establishment didn't want me to have a say then so I am forced to go nuclear now (along with a majority of my countrymen). Reap what you sow.
To true. Neither would have passed a referendum, and neither could have been enacted without concessions.
The resentment is built up over years. Cameron needed the referendum because he offered one over Lisbon, but wasnt able to give one because it was ratified before the GE. Much to the pleasure of NPXMP.
So. How long until EdF pull out of the Hinckley Point deal?
That's a nice little bonus! Dreadful project.
Agreed.
HS2 can go as well.
Leavers already destroying the country by doing down infrastructure ...
But that's what leave was all about for some leavers: things they don't like (even when they are utterly clueless about them and they are nothing to do with the EU) wrapped up in a little box and tied with a purple bow.
Fortunately most leavers are not in that category.
Anyone who wants Hinckley Point or HS2 can put their own money to it. - I wouldn't stop you.
Or do you prefer for the taxpayers to pay for politicians vanity projects ?
Hs2 is a stupid project. A 19th century one for the 21th century.
Absolute nonsense. I mean, really?
Tell that to all of the other countries building high-speed lines around the world.
Look at the catastrophic mess the WCML upgrade was and tell me how to meet the future demand.
A crestfallen Tony Blair up now. This is great to watch, he's more tearful than Cameron was.
He carries at least as much of the blame for this.
The real 'blame' for this lies with the utter bastards who ratified Maastricht and then Lisbon without referendums. I am a die hard Leaver now. But I'd have voted to stay in with pleasure if we had forced the EU to accept a two-speed EU when we had the chance. The establishment didn't want me to have a say then so I am forced to go nuclear now (along with a majority of my countrymen). Reap what you sow.
If the Tories did not 'steal' those seats from the LDs in the GE, David Cameron would have most likely served a full second term...
Politics! Bloody hell!
The Lib Dems in coalition could not have prevented the Referendum, but they might have been able to get votes for 16-18 year olds and EU nationals, which may have altered the outcome.
Unelected Pm leading biggest negotiations. Not good.
Oh FFs not this again !!!
Brown signed Lisbon FFS but no complaints then or is it only Labour leaders that can take momentous decisions behind closed doors against the will of the voters having refused a referendum that was originally offered in the manifesto?
Mr. Sandpit, no idea. He'd've won convincingly. I can only assume it was complacent arrogance.
I think it's very important that our 'destination' is agreed as soon as possible. While our destination is unknown, investment decisions will be put on hold, which could tip the economy into recession.
Having won the referendum on the anti-immigration votes of the WWC I cannot see how anything but "completely out" is going to wash.
If Leave maintain Freedom of Movement then then Remainers are going to feel they cheated their way to a win and half their own supporters are going to be incandescent. I just can't see it. It looks like "completely out" to me
The WWC can now be put back on the shelf. They're no longer needed.
Spot on. They have served their purpose.
Hopefully wake up call to all politicians / political parties.
The Tories have no need of them. Labour will continue to win with FPTP.
Lets face it, UKIP weren't even that electorally successful in the UK. How easily would a referendum be won in Austria, Netherlands, Denmark ?
The UE must be bricking it.
It's a little bit more complicated than that. The majority of PVV supporters - according to Peil - agreed with the statement "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands".
It will be very interesting to see the EU's response to this - both for the rest of the continent and for us.
Yes, the Dutch are effectively Germany-lite, and have benefited economically from a currency more competitive than the guilder would have been. Like the Germans however they face the challenge of picking up some fiscal heavy lifting if the EZ moves towards deeper integration. In many ways the sweet spot for them would be to keep the Euro outside the EU!
I can honestly say that I am no longer sure that Scotland is better off in the UK
This is the problem with emotions running high combined with a lack of sleep. None of the problems the SNP had before- defence, foreign affairs, etc.- have ceased to exist.
Nobody yet knows what deal the UK will get, but if Scotland leaves before exit negotiations are complete it goes straight to the back of the queue for membership (including access to the Single Market). rUK is by far a more important market than the EU for Scotland, whether exports or imports. rUK currently subsidises Scotland to the tune of £8bn per year, and unless Germany doubles its net contribution and diverts it all towards Scotland, that money isn't being replaced by the EU.
At the end of the day, Britain is a functioning state whether it leaves the EU or remains in it: Scotland isn't, and hasn't been for 300 years.
Don't think you understand: when even Jo Rowling is havering, it means support for the Union has totally gone, no matter what. I was strongly opposed to the the break up of the UK, but this morning all my NO friends are switching sides. I accept how difficult the process of Scottish independence will be, but now I think it is inevitable. That is not tiredness- I live in Estonia and slept well, it is just a recognition that a bomb has gone off in English/Scottish relations and this time, there is no going back.
How do you think Sturgeon will play it? I expect her to play the long game. Demand full representation in Article 50 negotiations and aim to present a fait accompli to the Scottish people to retain the status quo inside the EU.
What an incredible day. Has there been a more interesting - if frequently unpleasant - period in modern British politics than the last 18 months? Scottish Ref, rise of SNP, shock election result, Corbyn, Brexit, Cameron out.... what next? Put money on Trump I reckon.
Laugh of the day. Sky saying that Nicky Morgan "taking soundings to consider standing for the Leadership" "as someone to carry on Cameron's legacy". WTF
Saw that, never going to happen.
May, Hammond, Gove, Johnson. Anyone else a serious candidate for PM?
I can honestly say that I am no longer sure that Scotland is better off in the UK
This is the problem with emotions running high combined with a lack of sleep. None of the problems the SNP had before- defence, foreign affairs, etc.- have ceased to exist.
Nobody yet knows what deal the UK will get, but if Scotland leaves before exit negotiations are complete it goes straight to the back of the queue for membership (including access to the Single Market). rUK is by far a more important market than the EU for Scotland, whether exports or imports. rUK currently subsidises Scotland to the tune of £8bn per year, and unless Germany doubles its net contribution and diverts it all towards Scotland, that money isn't being replaced by the EU.
At the end of the day, Britain is a functioning state whether it leaves the EU or remains in it: Scotland isn't, and hasn't been for 300 years.
Don't think you understand: when even Jo Rowling is havering, it means support for the Union has totally gone, no matter what. I was strongly opposed to the the break up of the UK, but this morning all my NO friends are switching sides. I accept how difficult the process of Scottish independence will be, but now I think it is inevitable. That is not tiredness- I live in Estonia and slept well, it is just a recognition that a bomb has gone off in English/Scottish relations and this time, there is no going back.
People on this board need to understand movements in financial markets. A 'surprise' has happened, there is a new equilibrium path for the economy, financial prices jump (in this case down) to the new path. This transition involves *overshooting* followed by gradual reversal of that overshooting. We have just witnessed the overshooting. If you want to profit medium term yoou now have a buying opportunity.
The immediate question is whether you are right that we reached the bottom in one go. My instinct is that you are right for today - then people spend the weekend reflecting on all the implications, and the very real uncertainty about what lies in store for us politically and economically means that the sell off continues next week. So I would be very wary about going bargain hunting today.
If there are more 'surprises' to come you may be right. Otherwise expectations are already 'priced in'. A weekend's reflection is irrelevant.
Bollox it is priced in. Of course we haven't reached the bottom...we are on the course of economic uncertainty for the foreseeable future with the fluctuations, swings and risks that it entails.
Oh look, the FTSE is now pretty much exactly where it was five days ago.
So. How long until EdF pull out of the Hinckley Point deal?
That's a nice little bonus! Dreadful project.
Agreed.
HS2 can go as well.
Leavers already destroying the country by doing down infrastructure ...
But that's what leave was all about for some leavers: things they don't like (even when they are utterly clueless about them and they are nothing to do with the EU) wrapped up in a little box and tied with a purple bow.
Fortunately most leavers are not in that category.
Anyone who wants Hinckley Point or HS2 can put their own money to it. - I wouldn't stop you.
Or do you prefer for the taxpayers to pay for politicians vanity projects ?
More or less agree with Hinckley Point: it's been costed out of contention.
But HS2 is a very different matter. Just because you do not like something does not mean it isn't necessary. And HS2 has been shown time and time again to be necessary. Although I know you don't believe it.
I hope you're going to pay any extra costs of Brexit to the economy from your own pocket? After all, you voted for it.
So. How long until EdF pull out of the Hinckley Point deal?
That's a nice little bonus! Dreadful project.
Agreed.
HS2 can go as well.
Leavers already destroying the country by doing down infrastructure ...
But that's what leave was all about for some leavers: things they don't like (even when they are utterly clueless about them and they are nothing to do with the EU) wrapped up in a little box and tied with a purple bow.
Fortunately most leavers are not in that category.
I can honestly say that I am no longer sure that Scotland is better off in the UK
This is the problem with emotions running high combined with a lack of sleep. None of the problems the SNP had before- defence, foreign affairs, etc.- have ceased to exist.
Nobody yet knows what deal the UK will get, but if Scotland leaves before exit negotiations are complete it goes straight to the back of the queue for membership (including access to the Single Market). rUK is by far a more important market than the EU for Scotland, whether exports or imports. rUK currently subsidises Scotland to the tune of £8bn per year, and unless Germany doubles its net contribution and diverts it all towards Scotland, that money isn't being replaced by the EU.
At the end of the day, Britain is a functioning state whether it leaves the EU or remains in it: Scotland isn't, and hasn't been for 300 years.
Don't think you understand: when even Jo Rowling is havering, it means support for the Union has totally gone, no matter what. I was strongly opposed to the the break up of the UK, but this morning all my NO friends are switching sides. I accept how difficult the process of Scottish independence will be, but now I think it is inevitable. That is not tiredness- I live in Estonia and slept well, it is just a recognition that a bomb has gone off in English/Scottish relations and this time, there is no going back.
How do you think Sturgeon will play it? I expect her to play the long game. Demand full representation in Article 50 negotiations and aim to present a fait accompli to the Scottish people to retain the status quo inside the EU.
If I was the EU I would see finding some way to allow Scotland continuity of membership - despite all the pseudo-legal advice given prior that this cannot be done - as a top priority. Salvaging something from Brexit would help them head off the calls for leave that will emerge within other EU countries.
I can honestly say that I am no longer sure that Scotland is better off in the UK
This is the problem with emotions running high combined with a lack of sleep. None of the problems the SNP had before- defence, foreign affairs, etc.- have ceased to exist.
Nobody yet knows what deal the UK will get, but if Scotland leaves before exit negotiations are complete it goes straight to the back of the queue for membership (including access to the Single Market). rUK is by far a more important market than the EU for Scotland, whether exports or imports. rUK currently subsidises Scotland to the tune of £8bn per year, and unless Germany doubles its net contribution and diverts it all towards Scotland, that money isn't being replaced by the EU.
At the end of the day, Britain is a functioning state whether it leaves the EU or remains in it: Scotland isn't, and hasn't been for 300 years.
Don't think you understand: when even Jo Rowling is havering, it means support for the Union has totally gone, no matter what. I was strongly opposed to the the break up of the UK, but this morning all my NO friends are switching sides. I accept how difficult the process of Scottish independence will be, but now I think it is inevitable. That is not tiredness- I live in Estonia and slept well, it is just a recognition that a bomb has gone off in English/Scottish relations and this time, there is no going back.
How do you think Sturgeon will play it? I expect her to play the long game. Demand full representation in Article 50 negotiations and aim to present a fait accompli to the Scottish people to retain the status quo inside the EU.
The Scots can continue paying the EU membership fees for the UK then. Although not in £ sterling...
I can honestly say that I am no longer sure that Scotland is better off in the UK
This is the problem with emotions running high combined with a lack of sleep. None of the problems the SNP had before- defence, foreign affairs, etc.- have ceased to exist.
Nobody yet knows what deal the UK will get, but if Scotland leaves before exit negotiations are complete it goes straight to the back of the queue for membership (including access to the Single Market). rUK is by far a more important market than the EU for Scotland, whether exports or imports. rUK currently subsidises Scotland to the tune of £8bn per year, and unless Germany doubles its net contribution and diverts it all towards Scotland, that money isn't being replaced by the EU.
At the end of the day, Britain is a functioning state whether it leaves the EU or remains in it: Scotland isn't, and hasn't been for 300 years.
Don't think you understand: when even Jo Rowling is havering, it means support for the Union has totally gone, no matter what. I was strongly opposed to the the break up of the UK, but this morning all my NO friends are switching sides. I accept how difficult the process of Scottish independence will be, but now I think it is inevitable. That is not tiredness- I live in Estonia and slept well, it is just a recognition that a bomb has gone off in English/Scottish relations and this time, there is no going back.
Yes Scotland will go, I should think. And who could blame them? They are being dragged out of the EU against their will. Sturgeon would be quite right to move her nation back into Europe.
I noted JK Rowling's tweet and thought 'Hmm'. She was a poster girl for No last time.
Hs2 is a vital project, to anyone who has bothered to read the reports in full and actually look at passenger figures and how busy our railways actually are. They are filling up and we have reached the point where they can not be expended. New lines are needed.
Hinkley point on other hand is out of control. Forget the environment keep coal plants burning until we can find a cheaper solution. I'm afraid though if we don't we will end up with more gas plants, with all the running cost and fuel security issue that entails.
So. How long until EdF pull out of the Hinckley Point deal?
That's a nice little bonus! Dreadful project.
Agreed.
HS2 can go as well.
Leavers already destroying the country by doing down infrastructure ...
But that's what leave was all about for some leavers: things they don't like (even when they are utterly clueless about them and they are nothing to do with the EU) wrapped up in a little box and tied with a purple bow.
Fortunately most leavers are not in that category.
I thought I had you on board for cancelling HPC?
See my later post- I'm more or less resigned to it now. Any energy problems are potentially (although hopefully I'm wrong) be much more immediate. HPC is costing too much, and distracting from the urgent problems in the energy sector.
I can honestly say that I am no longer sure that Scotland is better off in the UK
This is the problem with emotions running high combined with a lack of sleep. None of the problems the SNP had before- defence, foreign affairs, etc.- have ceased to exist.
Nobody yet knows what deal the UK will get, but if Scotland leaves before exit negotiations are complete it goes straight to the back of the queue for membership (including access to the Single Market). rUK is by far a more important market than the EU for Scotland, whether exports or imports. rUK currently subsidises Scotland to the tune of £8bn per year, and unless Germany doubles its net contribution and diverts it all towards Scotland, that money isn't being replaced by the EU.
At the end of the day, Britain is a functioning state whether it leaves the EU or remains in it: Scotland isn't, and hasn't been for 300 years.
Don't think you understand: when even Jo Rowling is havering, it means support for the Union has totally gone, no matter what. I was strongly opposed to the the break up of the UK, but this morning all my NO friends are switching sides. I accept how difficult the process of Scottish independence will be, but now I think it is inevitable. That is not tiredness- I live in Estonia and slept well, it is just a recognition that a bomb has gone off in English/Scottish relations and this time, there is no going back.
Absolutely, the Union has gone, and Ruth may well be advised to support nationalism if she genuinely wants to place the Tories as a potential party of Scottish power.
The other question will be the legitimacy of Northern Ireland, and how the Nats play their hand.
I can honestly say that I am no longer sure that Scotland is better off in the UK
This is the problem with emotions running high combined with a lack of sleep. None of the problems the SNP had before- defence, foreign affairs, etc.- have ceased to exist.
Nobody yet knows what deal the UK will get, but if Scotland leaves before exit negotiations are complete it goes straight to the back of the queue for membership (including access to the Single Market). rUK is by far a more important market than the EU for Scotland, whether exports or imports. rUK currently subsidises Scotland to the tune of £8bn per year, and unless Germany doubles its net contribution and diverts it all towards Scotland, that money isn't being replaced by the EU.
At the end of the day, Britain is a functioning state whether it leaves the EU or remains in it: Scotland isn't, and hasn't been for 300 years.
Don't think you understand: when even Jo Rowling is havering, it means support for the Union has totally gone, no matter what. I was strongly opposed to the the break up of the UK, but this morning all my NO friends are switching sides. I accept how difficult the process of Scottish independence will be, but now I think it is inevitable. That is not tiredness- I live in Estonia and slept well, it is just a recognition that a bomb has gone off in English/Scottish relations and this time, there is no going back.
How do you think Sturgeon will play it? I expect her to play the long game. Demand full representation in Article 50 negotiations and aim to present a fait accompli to the Scottish people to retain the status quo inside the EU.
If I was the EU I would see finding some way to allow Scotland continuity of membership - despite all the pseudo-legal advice given prior that this cannot be done - as a top priority. Salvaging something from Brexit would help them head off the calls for leave that will emerge within other EU countries.
But Madrid will veto anything that facilitates secession.
No they won't. Brexit is the secession. This would just be a move to keep Scotland out of it.
Lets face it, UKIP weren't even that electorally successful in the UK. How easily would a referendum be won in Austria, Netherlands, Denmark ?
The UE must be bricking it.
It's a little bit more complicated than that. The majority of PVV supporters - according to Peil - agreed with the statement "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands".
It will be very interesting to see the EU's response to this - both for the rest of the continent and for us.
Yes, the Dutch are effectively Germany-lite, and have benefited economically from a currency more competitive than the guilder would have been. Like the Germans however they face the challenge of picking up some fiscal heavy lifting if the EZ moves towards deeper integration. In many ways the sweet spot for them would be to keep the Euro outside the EU!
HS2 contracts are being signed at the moment (many already awarded) and construction is due to start, It's a long project with a not to high a spend per year.
If the Tories did not 'steal' those seats from the LDs in the GE, David Cameron would have most likely served a full second term...
Politics! Bloody hell!
The Lib Dems in coalition could not have prevented the Referendum, but they might have been able to get votes for 16-18 year olds and EU nationals, which may have altered the outcome.
The entire point of the referendum offer was so it could be dropped as the (only) negotiation point as the coalition continued..
People on this board need to understand movements in financial markets. A 'surprise' has happened, there is a new equilibrium path for the economy, financial prices jump (in this case down) to the new path. This transition involves *overshooting* followed by gradual reversal of that overshooting. We have just witnessed the overshooting. If you want to profit medium term yoou now have a buying opportunity.
The immediate question is whether you are right that we reached the bottom in one go. My instinct is that you are right for today - then people spend the weekend reflecting on all the implications, and the very real uncertainty about what lies in store for us politically and economically means that the sell off continues next week. So I would be very wary about going bargain hunting today.
If there are more 'surprises' to come you may be right. Otherwise expectations are already 'priced in'. A weekend's reflection is irrelevant.
Bollox it is priced in. Of course we haven't reached the bottom...we are on the course of economic uncertainty for the foreseeable future with the fluctuations, swings and risks that it entails.
Oh look, the FTSE is now pretty much exactly where it was five days ago.
And the pound will probably come back at some point too.
These are perilous times now, and there is reason for a lot of caution, and political care. We as a nation can deliver great things from this (as we could perhaps have done also if we had remained - we just have the impetus now)
Remarkable comments by Sadiq Khan saying there is absolutely no need for a General Election with the new PM.
That's amazing for a Labour politician to say. He gave massive assurance about the power of London, its stability and that its the best city in the world. Good for him.
He said he didn't want to see an election? Surely Opposition politicians want an election every time there's a big change?
Angela Eagle losing it with Murnaghan on Sky now.
He did indeed. He said there is absolutely no requirement for an election: that there is a 5 year mandate. Amazing.
CNN by the way.
Not that Amazing.
There's no way he can run for leader having just been elected Mayor of London.
In 2020 however...
(cui boni is always a good guide to anything politicians say)
HS2 contracts are being signed at the moment (many already awarded) and construction is due to start, It's a long project with a not to high a spend per year.
Agree, but my concern is Euston. I fear that my kill the project, perhaps rightly. They need to get it right.
Mr. Bob, you may be right about Scotland leaving, but had the situation been very slightly different, would the story be about England/Wales being held captive/forced to remain in?
The real 'blame' for this lies with the utter bastards who ratified Maastricht and then Lisbon without referendums. I am a die hard Leaver now. But I'd have voted to stay in with pleasure if we had forced the EU to accept a two-speed EU when we had the chance. The establishment didn't want me to have a say then so I am forced to go nuclear now (along with a majority of my countrymen). Reap what you sow.
Absolutely spot on. Credit to Cameron for facing up to it and fighting, neither Major nor Brown were prepared to.
If the Tories did not 'steal' those seats from the LDs in the GE, David Cameron would have most likely served a full second term...
Politics! Bloody hell!
The Lib Dems in coalition could not have prevented the Referendum, but they might have been able to get votes for 16-18 year olds and EU nationals, which may have altered the outcome.
And provided a senior government voice who actually believed in Europe, which might have made a difference to the campaign. Cameron's credibility was weak from the beginning given his stance(s) on the EU over his career.
Remarkable comments by Sadiq Khan saying there is absolutely no need for a General Election with the new PM.
That's amazing for a Labour politician to say. He gave massive assurance about the power of London, its stability and that its the best city in the world. Good for him.
He said he didn't want to see an election? Surely Opposition politicians want an election every time there's a big change?
Angela Eagle losing it with Murnaghan on Sky now.
He did indeed. He said there is absolutely no requirement for an election: that there is a 5 year mandate. Amazing.
CNN by the way.
Not that Amazing.
There's no way he can run for leader having just been elected Mayor of London.
In 2020 however...
(cui boni is always a good guide to anything politicians say)
People on this board need to understand movements in financial markets. A 'surprise' has happened, there is a new equilibrium path for the economy, financial prices jump (in this case down) to the new path. This transition involves *overshooting* followed by gradual reversal of that overshooting. We have just witnessed the overshooting. If you want to profit medium term yoou now have a buying opportunity.
The immediate question is whether you are right that we reached the bottom in one go. My instinct is that you are right for today - then people spend the weekend reflecting on all the implications, and the very real uncertainty about what lies in store for us politically and economically means that the sell off continues next week. So I would be very wary about going bargain hunting today.
If there are more 'surprises' to come you may be right. Otherwise expectations are already 'priced in'. A weekend's reflection is irrelevant.
Bollox it is priced in. Of course we haven't reached the bottom...we are on the course of economic uncertainty for the foreseeable future with the fluctuations, swings and risks that it entails.
There is always uncertainty. But the biggest uncertainty in the past few months has now been resolved. Of course adjustments must be expected because things have to be unravelled. But from now on we know the direction of travel at least.
Today, @LabourRemain will release a short statement on the future leadership of the Labour Party. Statement to follow. #EUref #Brexit 33 retweets 1 likes
ooer.... daggers for Corbyn?
Could be.
JC is bullet proof
Dont upset SO
JC is going to find out whether he is bullet proof or not.
I am no Corbyn cheerleader, but I genuinely don't understand the argument that anyone else would be a better leader. The Labour "moderates" were ALL huge cheerleaders for the Remain Campaign, so they've also just shown they are utterly useless at reading the public mood too.
If there's a Blairite put in (culturally liberal, but economically similar to the Tories), I genuinely think they'll get utterly wiped out in the North in the next election. Labour really needs the exact opposite: economically left-wing, but socially/culturally conservative.
Today, @LabourRemain will release a short statement on the future leadership of the Labour Party. Statement to follow. #EUref #Brexit 33 retweets 1 likes
ooer.... daggers for Corbyn?
Could be.
JC is bullet proof
Dont upset SO
JC is going to find out whether he is bullet proof or not.
economically left-wing, but socially/culturally conservative.
Today, @LabourRemain will release a short statement on the future leadership of the Labour Party. Statement to follow. #EUref #Brexit 33 retweets 1 likes
ooer.... daggers for Corbyn?
Could be.
JC is bullet proof
Dont upset SO
JC is going to find out whether he is bullet proof or not.
I am no Corbyn cheerleader, but I genuinely don't understand the argument that anyone else would be a better leader. The Labour "moderates" were ALL huge cheerleaders for the Remain Campaign, so they've also just shown they are utterly useless at reading the public mood too.
If there's a Blairite put in (culturally liberal, but economically similar to the Tories), I genuinely think they'll get utterly wiped out in the North in the next election. Labour really needs the exact opposite: economically left-wing, but socially/culturally conservative.
Unelected Pm leading biggest negotiations. Not good.
Oh FFs not this again !!!
Brown signed Lisbon FFS but no complaints then or is it only Labour leaders that can take momentous decisions behind closed doors against the will of the voters having refused a referendum that was originally offered in the manifesto?
Mr. Sandpit, no idea. He'd've won convincingly. I can only assume it was complacent arrogance.
I think it's very important that our 'destination' is agreed as soon as possible. While our destination is unknown, investment decisions will be put on hold, which could tip the economy into recession.
Having won the referendum on the anti-immigration votes of the WWC I cannot see how anything but "completely out" is going to wash.
If Leave maintain Freedom of Movement then then Remainers are going to feel they cheated their way to a win and half their own supporters are going to be incandescent. I just can't see it. It looks like "completely out" to me
The WWC can now be put back on the shelf. They're no longer needed.
I suspect you are right, just the cannon fodder. Must be one of the biggest cons in our history (and that's saying something). Duping millions of voters to vote Leave on the promise of controlling our borders knowing full well it's not going to happen.
I hope all PBers make sure that they haven't got more than £75K in any one British bank account, or a combined sum of that amount in more than one account covered by any single company's protection under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme.
It'll be more than 75k soon.
£80K ATM €100,000 Euros - and the limit on my PI policy will have to be increased.
However we COULD do away with the FCA in a couple of years . . .
People on this board need to understand movements in financial markets. A 'surprise' has happened, there is a new equilibrium path for the economy, financial prices jump (in this case down) to the new path. This transition involves *overshooting* followed by gradual reversal of that overshooting. We have just witnessed the overshooting. If you want to profit medium term yoou now have a buying opportunity.
The immediate question is whether you are right that we reached the bottom in one go. My instinct is that you are right for today - then people spend the weekend reflecting on all the implications, and the very real uncertainty about what lies in store for us politically and economically means that the sell off continues next week. So I would be very wary about going bargain hunting today.
If there are more 'surprises' to come you may be right. Otherwise expectations are already 'priced in'. A weekend's reflection is irrelevant.
Bollox it is priced in. Of course we haven't reached the bottom...we are on the course of economic uncertainty for the foreseeable future with the fluctuations, swings and risks that it entails.
Oh look, the FTSE is now pretty much exactly where it was five days ago.
A week ago the polls were calling a significant leave win and the markets were jittery.
But let's see how the markets are and sterling are going in six months, and let's see how economic growth is. We'll talk then.
Things will be alright though because you can still blame migrants and Europe for all our ills. It works.
The real 'blame' for this lies with the utter bastards who ratified Maastricht and then Lisbon without referendums. I am a die hard Leaver now. But I'd have voted to stay in with pleasure if we had forced the EU to accept a two-speed EU when we had the chance. The establishment didn't want me to have a say then so I am forced to go nuclear now (along with a majority of my countrymen). Reap what you sow.
Absolutely spot on. Credit to Cameron for facing up to it and fighting, neither Major nor Brown were prepared to.
It's worth mentioning that the Danes DID reject Maastricht, they then did a deal with the Council of Europe for various opt-outs which was heralded as a "legally binding" policy agreement. The Danes voted to accept Maastricht on that basis. That agreement was subsequently thrown out by the ECJ.
Today, @LabourRemain will release a short statement on the future leadership of the Labour Party. Statement to follow. #EUref #Brexit 33 retweets 1 likes
ooer.... daggers for Corbyn?
Could be.
JC is bullet proof
Dont upset SO
JC is going to find out whether he is bullet proof or not.
I am no Corbyn cheerleader, but I genuinely don't understand the argument that anyone else would be a better leader. The Labour "moderates" were ALL huge cheerleaders for the Remain Campaign, so they've also just shown they are utterly useless at reading the public mood too.
If there's a Blairite put in (culturally liberal, but economically similar to the Tories), I genuinely think they'll get utterly wiped out in the North in the next election. Labour really needs the exact opposite: economically left-wing, but socially/culturally conservative.
Yes. They need to begin looking at how to out UKIP, UKIP. While keeping the trendy Londoners on board. After today it is not going to be easy for Labour to reconnect with voters. Especially if the MPs defy the will of the members and depose a leader that at least has a chance of doing that.
Unelected Pm leading biggest negotiations. Not good.
Oh FFs not this again !!!
Brown signed Lisbon FFS but no complaints then or is it only Labour leaders that can take momentous decisions behind closed doors against the will of the voters having refused a referendum that was originally offered in the manifesto?
Mr. Sandpit, no idea. He'd've won convincingly. I can only assume it was complacent arrogance.
I think it's very important that our 'destination' is agreed as soon as possible. While our destination is unknown, investment decisions will be put on hold, which could tip the economy into recession.
Having won the referendum on the anti-immigration votes of the WWC I cannot see how anything but "completely out" is going to wash.
If Leave maintain Freedom of Movement then then Remainers are going to feel they cheated their way to a win and half their own supporters are going to be incandescent. I just can't see it. It looks like "completely out" to me
The WWC can now be put back on the shelf. They're no longer needed.
I suspect you are right, just the cannon fodder. Must be one of the biggest cons in our history (and that's saying something). Duping millions of voters to vote Leave on the promise of controlling our borders knowing full well it's not going to happen.
Better than that, the Leavers want to enlist Remainers as cover for their betrayal.
People on this board need to understand movements in financial markets. A 'surprise' has happened, there is a new equilibrium path for the economy, financial prices jump (in this case down) to the new path. This transition involves *overshooting* followed by gradual reversal of that overshooting. We have just witnessed the overshooting. If you want to profit medium term yoou now have a buying opportunity.
The immediate question is whether you are right that we reached the bottom in one go. My instinct is that you are right for today - then people spend the weekend reflecting on all the implications, and the very real uncertainty about what lies in store for us politically and economically means that the sell off continues next week. So I would be very wary about going bargain hunting today.
If there are more 'surprises' to come you may be right. Otherwise expectations are already 'priced in'. A weekend's reflection is irrelevant.
Bollox it is priced in. Of course we haven't reached the bottom...we are on the course of economic uncertainty for the foreseeable future with the fluctuations, swings and risks that it entails.
There is always uncertainty. But the biggest uncertainty in the past few months has now been resolved. Of course adjustments must be expected because things have to be unravelled. But from now on we know the direction of travel at least.
You might know, but it is far from obvious to me. I would say that waking up this morning there is a very lengthy list of things that, suddenly, we do not know.
I wonder how long the pound will be depressed for? I made a middling 5 figure gain this morning (not yet crystallised as I haven't sold). Genuinely not sure if I should sell out or sit out.
If there's a Blairite put in (culturally liberal, but economically similar to the Tories), I genuinely think they'll get utterly wiped out in the North in the next election. Labour really needs the exact opposite: economically left-wing, but socially/culturally conservative.
We have been telling Labour it should have elected Frank Field as leader for ages
People on this board need to understand movements in financial markets. A 'surprise' has happened, there is a new equilibrium path for the economy, financial prices jump (in this case down) to the new path. This transition involves *overshooting* followed by gradual reversal of that overshooting. We have just witnessed the overshooting. If you want to profit medium term yoou now have a buying opportunity.
The immediate question is whether you are right that we reached the bottom in one go. My instinct is that you are right for today - then people spend the weekend reflecting on all the implications, and the very real uncertainty about what lies in store for us politically and economically means that the sell off continues next week. So I would be very wary about going bargain hunting today.
If there are more 'surprises' to come you may be right. Otherwise expectations are already 'priced in'. A weekend's reflection is irrelevant.
Bollox it is priced in. Of course we haven't reached the bottom...we are on the course of economic uncertainty for the foreseeable future with the fluctuations, swings and risks that it entails.
Oh look, the FTSE is now pretty much exactly where it was five days ago.
A week ago the polls were calling a significant leave win and the markets were jittery.
But let's see how the markets are and sterling are going in six months, and let's see how economic growth is. We'll talk then.
Things will be alright though because you can still blame migrants and Europe for all our ills. It works.
Correct - I'm also concerned where we'll be after a full trading week friday next BUT my judgement is under a cloud currently!!!!
People on this board need to understand movements in financial markets. A 'surprise' has happened, there is a new equilibrium path for the economy, financial prices jump (in this case down) to the new path. This transition involves *overshooting* followed by gradual reversal of that overshooting. We have just witnessed the overshooting. If you want to profit medium term yoou now have a buying opportunity.
The immediate question is whether you are right that we reached the bottom in one go. My instinct is that you are right for today - then people spend the weekend reflecting on all the implications, and the very real uncertainty about what lies in store for us politically and economically means that the sell off continues next week. So I would be very wary about going bargain hunting today.
If there are more 'surprises' to come you may be right. Otherwise expectations are already 'priced in'. A weekend's reflection is irrelevant.
Bollox it is priced in. Of course we haven't reached the bottom...we are on the course of economic uncertainty for the foreseeable future with the fluctuations, swings and risks that it entails.
Oh look, the FTSE is now pretty much exactly where it was five days ago.
A week ago the polls were calling a significant leave win and the markets were jittery.
But let's see how the markets are and sterling are going in six months, and let's see how economic growth is. We'll talk then.
Things will be alright though because you can still blame migrants and Europe for all our ills. It works.
You think you'll discern anything about economic growth in six months?
Sam Coates Times Retweeted Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 4m4 minutes ago Just arrived in Scotland. Place is going wild over the vote. They took their country back, just like we will take America back. No games!
Sturgeon is clever. She'll know that Brexit reinforces the Union in the short term. Which NO voters in 2014 are going to be persuaded by a hard land Border with rUK ? She'll wait, blame the recession and extra Austerity on the English and Stoke grevience. But I think #indyref2 will only be on the cards if we leave the Single Market. Scotland do well as a home for rUK companies than need single market access but want to be on the Other island of Britain. The question is whether her activists and predecessor let her play it long post the 2021 Hollywood elections ?
Things will be alright though because you can still blame migrants and Europe for all our ills. It works.
And you can feck right off, I am married to a migrant, I have two adopted migrant children and I hope they all get to vote regardless of their qualifications and beliefs unlike some elitists I could mention.
I can honestly say that I am no longer sure that Scotland is better off in the UK
This is the problem with emotions running high combined with a lack of sleep. None of the problems the SNP had before- defence, foreign affairs, etc.- have ceased to exist.
Nobody yet knows what deal the UK will get, but if Scotland leaves before exit negotiations are complete it goes straight to the back of the queue for membership (including access to the Single Market). rUK is by far a more important market than the EU for Scotland, whether exports or imports. rUK currently subsidises Scotland to the tune of £8bn per year, and unless Germany doubles its net contribution and diverts it all towards Scotland, that money isn't being replaced by the EU.
At the end of the day, Britain is a functioning state whether it leaves the EU or remains in it: Scotland isn't, and hasn't been for 300 years.
Don't think you understand: when even Jo Rowling is havering, it means support for the Union has totally gone, no matter what. I was strongly opposed to the the break up of the UK, but this morning all my NO friends are switching sides. I accept how difficult the process of Scottish independence will be, but now I think it is inevitable. That is not tiredness- I live in Estonia and slept well, it is just a recognition that a bomb has gone off in English/Scottish relations and this time, there is no going back.
How do you think Sturgeon will play it? I expect her to play the long game. Demand full representation in Article 50 negotiations and aim to present a fait accompli to the Scottish people to retain the status quo inside the EU.
If I was the EU I would see finding some way to allow Scotland continuity of membership - despite all the pseudo-legal advice given prior that this cannot be done - as a top priority. Salvaging something from Brexit would help them head off the calls for leave that will emerge within other EU countries.
But Madrid will veto anything that facilitates secession.
As, indeed, will Britain. They can drag Scottish independence negotiations out beyond the completion of Article 50, or they can complete them while they retain EU membership and drop Scotland outside the Single Market.
Comments
Tell that to all of the other countries building high-speed lines around the world.
Look at the catastrophic mess the WCML upgrade was and tell me how to meet the future demand.
But HS2 is a very different matter. Just because you do not like something does not mean it isn't necessary. And HS2 has been shown time and time again to be necessary. Although I know you don't believe it.
I hope you're going to pay any extra costs of Brexit to the economy from your own pocket? After all, you voted for it.
I think he'd be rather good.
I noted JK Rowling's tweet and thought 'Hmm'. She was a poster girl for No last time.
Hinkley point on other hand is out of control. Forget the environment keep coal plants burning until we can find a cheaper solution. I'm afraid though if we don't we will end up with more gas plants, with all the running cost and fuel security issue that entails.
The other question will be the legitimacy of Northern Ireland, and how the Nats play their hand.
Mr. W, don't think Grayling's sharp enough. Too Homer Simpson.
Lots of people in London this morning will wonder whether we can join an independent Scotland as an exclave.
ps, didn't Sam look lovely?
IDS isn't putting his hat in... him vs Boris... that would be the end for me.
These are perilous times now, and there is reason for a lot of caution, and political care. We as a nation can deliver great things from this (as we could perhaps have done also if we had remained - we just have the impetus now)
There's no way he can run for leader having just been elected Mayor of London.
In 2020 however...
(cui boni is always a good guide to anything politicians say)
The real 'blame' for this lies with the utter bastards who ratified Maastricht and then Lisbon without referendums. I am a die hard Leaver now. But I'd have voted to stay in with pleasure if we had forced the EU to accept a two-speed EU when we had the chance. The establishment didn't want me to have a say then so I am forced to go nuclear now (along with a majority of my countrymen). Reap what you sow.
Absolutely spot on. Credit to Cameron for facing up to it and fighting, neither Major nor Brown were prepared to.
LOL that will work.
Perhaps Tony Blair would come back I understand hes popular with Labour Members
of the PLP
I will be signing a letter to deselect my MP
If there's a Blairite put in (culturally liberal, but economically similar to the Tories), I genuinely think they'll get utterly wiped out in the North in the next election. Labour really needs the exact opposite: economically left-wing, but socially/culturally conservative.
Time to move on.
However we COULD do away with the FCA in a couple of years . . .
But let's see how the markets are and sterling are going in six months, and let's see how economic growth is. We'll talk then.
Things will be alright though because you can still blame migrants and Europe for all our ills. It works.
UK, Sweden, Denmark, Holland ...
PB over the last 6 weeks or so has been by far the best site and my personal #1 go to site.
Thank you also to TSE, Cyclefree David H and Tissue Price for some excellent articles.
Also a big thank you to Alasdair and Roger-they have provided some excellent articles from a different perspective to the one I normally come across.
https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/746272474287996928
Sam Coates Times Retweeted
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 4m4 minutes ago
Just arrived in Scotland. Place is going wild over the vote. They took their country back, just like we will take America back. No games!