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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s finding You Can’t Always Get What EU Want

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,104
    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    She won't, because she'll lose. Once it's all shaken out and the anger from the remain side is gone, Scotland is still an oil economy with very high structural public spending in a low oil price environment. If they vote to leave the UK they vote to leave Barnett and the billions that it comes with. Scotland's economy is already facing headwinds, their being in the UK has made most of them go away, as a rich nation they would be paying into the EU rather than receiving subsidies.
    As SO said, if the rest of the UK can vote for economic masochism, so can Scotland. If it's about sovereignty, why is Scotland a lesser nation than Ireland? It isn't.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    If the 1983 Labour Manifesto was the longest suicide note in history what is David Cameron's decision to call this referendum?

    ;-)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,371
    Lowlander said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Shy Leavers.

    No, differential turnout. WWC areas went big on Leave. Those who dont normally vote (completely ignored by polls) went big on Leave.
    They don't get out of bed for Ed Miliband.

    But leaving the EU is a whole different matter...
    You called it, thanks for that, it made sense and made me about £2000.
    Heh I should have more confidence in my own tips :D
    It made a lot of sense. It was quite clear that there was a good chance of differential turnout deciding the outcome and that WWC would be huge turnouts while, in my experience, Scotland would not turn out at all.

    As soon as I saw how weak the turnout was in my area, it was clear Leave would win but I wouldn't have gone for it (especially my peak time cycle-by) if I hadn't read your posts.
    It was the cleaner at my office saying she'd voted and tales of morning queues in Whiston from others that made me realise something might be up. My facebook was also a complete sea of remain, and given they'd have voted for Ed Miliband, AV and other stuff - well I thought the polls might be wrong !
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    John_M said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    If the English can vote for economic self harm, why not the Scots?

    Well, the Scots will be voting to become an EU minnow, it's hardly independence. However, if that's what they want, then they should be allowed to do so.
    Absolutely. How quickly does the referendum get called now. As soon as October?!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202
    Anyone know what turnout is presently? BBC seem to have stopped showing it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,577
    Mortimer said:

    Anyone know what turnout is presently? BBC seem to have stopped showing it.

    72%
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Lets have that GBPUSD 1.32 handle!
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,730
    I see people are once again quoting part of Chesterton's poem while for some reason omitting the interesting lines:
    - But the squire seemed struck in the saddle; he was foolish, as if in pain.
    He leaned on a staggering lawyer, he clutched a cringing Jew
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    She won't, because she'll lose. Once it's all shaken out and the anger from the remain side is gone, Scotland is still an oil economy with very high structural public spending in a low oil price environment. If they vote to leave the UK they vote to leave Barnett and the billions that it comes with. Scotland's economy is already facing headwinds, their being in the UK has made most of them go away, as a rich nation they would be paying into the EU rather than receiving subsidies.
    As SO said, if the rest of the UK can vote for economic masochism, so can Scotland. If it's about sovereignty, why is Scotland a lesser nation than Ireland? It isn't.
    Ireland will reaply to join the UK once we are free of the EU.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,412

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    She won't, because she'll lose. Once it's all shaken out and the anger from the remain side is gone, Scotland is still an oil economy with very high structural public spending in a low oil price environment. If they vote to leave the UK they vote to leave Barnett and the billions that it comes with. Scotland's economy is already facing headwinds, their being in the UK has made most of them go away, as a rich nation they would be paying into the EU rather than receiving subsidies.
    As SO said, if the rest of the UK can vote for economic masochism, so can Scotland. If it's about sovereignty, why is Scotland a lesser nation than Ireland? It isn't.
    They vote for what they want! While I prefer we'd stay together, it's ultimately up to them. :)
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    BigIan said:

    So it was the sun wot won it right?

    No, it was The Sunil wot won it!
    All the PBers tactically voting Leave so the Remain margin wouldn't be too high.
    I must admit I thought yesterday when so many people on here said they had voted Leave that something was up.
  • AugustineAugustine Posts: 19
    Just woken up again. Did I miss anything?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,723

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    She won't, because she'll lose. Once it's all shaken out and the anger from the remain side is gone, Scotland is still an oil economy with very high structural public spending in a low oil price environment. If they vote to leave the UK they vote to leave Barnett and the billions that it comes with. Scotland's economy is already facing headwinds, their being in the UK has made most of them go away, as a rich nation they would be paying into the EU rather than receiving subsidies.
    As SO said, if the rest of the UK can vote for economic masochism, so can Scotland. If it's about sovereignty, why is Scotland a lesser nation than Ireland? It isn't.
    Ireland will reaply to join the UK once we are free of the EU.
    No it won't
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    03:59
    Declan Kearney, a Northern Ireland Assembly member for Sinn Féin, says his party will push for a poll on whether Northern Ireland should stay in the UK or unite with the Republic of Ireland if the UK votes to leave the EU. He says it will be "completely undemocratic" if the majority of people in Northern Ireland vote Remain but are "drawn out of the EU as a result of being carried on the coat-tails" of voters in England. "Sinn Féin will continue to press... for a border poll under the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement, because this (EU Referendum) will demonstrate palpably a dramatic change in the political landscape of the north," he says.

    Declan Kearney
    BBC h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

    Ooops.

    Would they have any chance of winning that? I know the demographic have been moving in their direction but aren't they still a fair way off?
    As soon as the Ireland/Northern Ireland border becomes a UK/EU border, then the question of hw to resolve it becomes rather pressing. And as previous discussions n this board have shown, the UK does not know how to resolve it
    Both the Republic and the UK are outside Schengen, and have their own Common Travel Area.

    Note that Schengen INCLUDES non-EU members like Iceland and Switzerland.
    The rump UK can declare an international border which has not existed for 215 years or let Scotland vote for Independence without consequence. Its a hard choice for Dave's successor.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,730

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    She won't, because she'll lose. Once it's all shaken out and the anger from the remain side is gone, Scotland is still an oil economy with very high structural public spending in a low oil price environment. If they vote to leave the UK they vote to leave Barnett and the billions that it comes with. Scotland's economy is already facing headwinds, their being in the UK has made most of them go away, as a rich nation they would be paying into the EU rather than receiving subsidies.
    As SO said, if the rest of the UK can vote for economic masochism, so can Scotland. If it's about sovereignty, why is Scotland a lesser nation than Ireland? It isn't.
    Ireland will reaply to join the UK once we are free of the EU.
    Erm, empire is not coming back, soz. Who would vote to shoot themselves in the foot in the way GBP/FTSE has gone?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,945

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    She won't, because she'll lose. Once it's all shaken out and the anger from the remain side is gone, Scotland is still an oil economy with very high structural public spending in a low oil price environment. If they vote to leave the UK they vote to leave Barnett and the billions that it comes with. Scotland's economy is already facing headwinds, their being in the UK has made most of them go away, as a rich nation they would be paying into the EU rather than receiving subsidies.
    As SO said, if the rest of the UK can vote for economic masochism, so can Scotland. If it's about sovereignty, why is Scotland a lesser nation than Ireland? It isn't.
    Because 55% of them just voted to stay in the union and since then oil prices have crashed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    Augustine said:

    Just woken up again. Did I miss anything?

    Morning Boris...nope nothing exciting...go back to bed.
  • Paul. Good morning from a free Bedordshire. Chestertons people did it.

    They did indeed.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,906
    Sean_F said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    03:59
    Declan Kearney, a Northern Ireland Assembly member for Sinn Féin, says his party will push for a poll on whether Northern Ireland should stay in the UK or unite with the Republic of Ireland if the UK votes to leave the EU. He says it will be "completely undemocratic" if the majority of people in Northern Ireland vote Remain but are "drawn out of the EU as a result of being carried on the coat-tails" of voters in England. "Sinn Féin will continue to press... for a border poll under the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement, because this (EU Referendum) will demonstrate palpably a dramatic change in the political landscape of the north," he says.

    Declan Kearney
    BBC h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

    Ooops.

    Would they have any chance of winning that? I know the demographic have been moving in their direction but aren't they still a fair way off?
    As soon as the Ireland/Northern Ireland border becomes a UK/EU border, then the question of hw to resolve it becomes rather pressing. And as previous discussions n this board have shown, the UK does not know how to resolve it
    Northern Ireland only voted narrowly to Remain. They aren't going to join the Republic.
    Most Unionist majority seats voted LEAVE, the Nationalist majority seats voted REMAIN.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,104

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    She won't, because she'll lose. Once it's all shaken out and the anger from the remain side is gone, Scotland is still an oil economy with very high structural public spending in a low oil price environment. If they vote to leave the UK they vote to leave Barnett and the billions that it comes with. Scotland's economy is already facing headwinds, their being in the UK has made most of them go away, as a rich nation they would be paying into the EU rather than receiving subsidies.
    As SO said, if the rest of the UK can vote for economic masochism, so can Scotland. If it's about sovereignty, why is Scotland a lesser nation than Ireland? It isn't.
    Ireland will reaply to join the UK once we are free of the EU.
    Maybe if we abolished the monarchy and implemented a Federal British Isles, but that's hardly on the cards, is it?
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    The whole idea of a second Scottish independence referendum is just shit talk.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Brexit intensifies case for vote on United Ireland - Sinn Fein
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    tlg86 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Anyone know what turnout is presently? BBC seem to have stopped showing it.

    72%
    BBC have given up on results altogether.

    It's now one big funeral dirge. RIP our membership of the EU....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,907
    So I guess the Euro really is off the table now? ;)
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    I'm off to catch a few hours sleep before work.

    Good night all and good night the EU.

    What a night! This will be one hell of a 10 hour thread of posts on PB to look back on in the years to come!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Augustine said:

    Just woken up again. Did I miss anything?

    Another tedious night of logic-chopping and semantic word play.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    If the 1983 Labour Manifesto was the longest suicide note in history what is David Cameron's decision to call this referendum?

    ;-)

    The most bitter suicide note in history.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,412

    tlg86 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Anyone know what turnout is presently? BBC seem to have stopped showing it.

    72%
    BBC have given up on results altogether.

    It's now one big funeral dirge. RIP our membership of the EU....
    To be fair this is a big event. Who cares about the results now it's been called?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,573
    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Shy Leavers.

    No, differential turnout. WWC areas went big on Leave. Those who dont normally vote (completely ignored by polls) went big on Leave.
    They don't get out of bed for Ed Miliband.

    But leaving the EU is a whole different matter...
    You called it, thanks for that, it made sense and made me about £2000.
    Heh I should have more confidence in my own tips :D
    It made a lot of sense. It was quite clear that there was a good chance of differential turnout deciding the outcome and that WWC would be huge turnouts while, in my experience, Scotland would not turn out at all.

    As soon as I saw how weak the turnout was in my area, it was clear Leave would win but I wouldn't have gone for it (especially my peak time cycle-by) if I hadn't read your posts.
    It was the cleaner at my office saying she'd voted and tales of morning queues in Whiston from others that made me realise something might be up. My facebook was also a complete sea of remain, and given they'd have voted for Ed Miliband, AV and other stuff - well I thought the polls might be wrong !
    Local radio was reporting South Yorkshire as 85% Leave on Wednesday morning.

    Sure it was a voodoo poll but ...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,402
    I think Lucas is spot on (for once) that we'll probably change the voting system.

    Let the AV threads commence!
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Lowlander said:

    If the 1983 Labour Manifesto was the longest suicide note in history what is David Cameron's decision to call this referendum?

    ;-)

    The most bitter suicide note in history.
    Haha :-)
  • MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    She won't, because she'll lose. Once it's all shaken out and the anger from the remain side is gone, Scotland is still an oil economy with very high structural public spending in a low oil price environment. If they vote to leave the UK they vote to leave Barnett and the billions that it comes with. Scotland's economy is already facing headwinds, their being in the UK has made most of them go away, as a rich nation they would be paying into the EU rather than receiving subsidies.
    As SO said, if the rest of the UK can vote for economic masochism, so can Scotland. If it's about sovereignty, why is Scotland a lesser nation than Ireland? It isn't.
    Very true. The SNP now needs to decide whether it wants to put to the test whether Scotland wishes to remain in a union of 41 years or one of 309 years. If Scotland votes to leave the UK then that's up to them and good luck. Personally, I think they would stay in the UK but we shall see...
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    AV! AV!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,104
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    She won't, because she'll lose. Once it's all shaken out and the anger from the remain side is gone, Scotland is still an oil economy with very high structural public spending in a low oil price environment. If they vote to leave the UK they vote to leave Barnett and the billions that it comes with. Scotland's economy is already facing headwinds, their being in the UK has made most of them go away, as a rich nation they would be paying into the EU rather than receiving subsidies.
    As SO said, if the rest of the UK can vote for economic masochism, so can Scotland. If it's about sovereignty, why is Scotland a lesser nation than Ireland? It isn't.
    Because 55% of them just voted to stay in the union and since then oil prices have crashed.
    Since then the Sterling price has crashed and the British have committed political harikari. The world is different today, is it not?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    New Cabinet

    PM - Johnson

    Chancellor - Gove

    Business - Ledsome

    Home - Grayling

    Foreign - Hammond
  • Augustine said:

    Just woken up again. Did I miss anything?

    There was a cracking AV debate at 3AM that you will really kick yourself for not staying up all night for
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Caroline Lucas is upset at the result.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,412

    I think Lucas is spot on (for once) that we'll probably change the voting system.

    Let the AV threads commence!

    Might be a catalyst for an actual constitutional convention?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,723
    I'm a bit glum and serious at the moment. Granted I've been up for 24 hours, but I've always been able to eschew any responsibility for anything not going well by voting for losers. Despite all my arguments, I hope it was clear I thought long and hard about what to do, and even when voting I took a good 20 seconds to really consider my options, apparently I didn't really believe Leave would win as I feel a little shell shocked, and now have nowhere to hide should things go poorly, which given the people about to take over as PM at a time of turmoil, will certainly occur in the short term at least. Sobering.

    But likely for the best in the long run - the EU wants things we don't, it's irreconcilable.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Anyone know what turnout is presently? BBC seem to have stopped showing it.

    72%
    BBC have given up on results altogether.

    It's now one big funeral dirge. RIP our membership of the EU....
    To be fair this is a big event. Who cares about the results now it's been called?
    355/382 declared - Leave 15882960, Remain 14753634
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,573
    Has Scott_Paste gone for reprogramming ?
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    She won't, because she'll lose. Once it's all shaken out and the anger from the remain side is gone, Scotland is still an oil economy with very high structural public spending in a low oil price environment. If they vote to leave the UK they vote to leave Barnett and the billions that it comes with. Scotland's economy is already facing headwinds, their being in the UK has made most of them go away, as a rich nation they would be paying into the EU rather than receiving subsidies.
    As SO said, if the rest of the UK can vote for economic masochism, so can Scotland. If it's about sovereignty, why is Scotland a lesser nation than Ireland? It isn't.
    Because 55% of them just voted to stay in the union and since then oil prices have crashed.
    People just voted in a manner where they knew the result of their vote would be currency and stock market crashes. Logic and referendums do not mix.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,907

    Caroline Lucas is upset at the result.

    She really is isn't she? ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873

    Augustine said:

    Just woken up again. Did I miss anything?

    There was a cracking AV debate at 3AM that you will really kick yourself for not staying up all night for
    Don't forget monty Hall problem discussion.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,104
    Tim_B said:

    Brexit intensifies case for vote on United Ireland - Sinn Fein

    And if the Article 50 negotiations don't take full account of the Republican position, what happens next?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,906
    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Anyone know what turnout is presently? BBC seem to have stopped showing it.

    72%
    BBC have given up on results altogether.

    It's now one big funeral dirge. RIP our membership of the EU....
    To be fair this is a big event. Who cares about the results now it's been called?
    355/382 declared - Leave 15882960, Remain 14753634
    FULL results here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Some Green woman named Lucas (?) says the EU was just a proxy in this vote.

    I won't even attempt to parse what that means.
  • 864,000 votes left to go
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,040
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    She won't, because she'll lose. Once it's all shaken out and the anger from the remain side is gone, Scotland is still an oil economy with very high structural public spending in a low oil price environment. If they vote to leave the UK they vote to leave Barnett and the billions that it comes with. Scotland's economy is already facing headwinds, their being in the UK has made most of them go away, as a rich nation they would be paying into the EU rather than receiving subsidies.
    As SO said, if the rest of the UK can vote for economic masochism, so can Scotland. If it's about sovereignty, why is Scotland a lesser nation than Ireland? It isn't.
    Because 55% of them just voted to stay in the union and since then oil prices have crashed.

    And English and Welsh voters have decided to take the UK out of the EU. Everything has changed.

  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Sinn Fein saying they want a referendum on removal of border if we leave EU
  • Brexit bingo - Carolien Lucas calls it as a victory for snake oil!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,371
    GIN1138 said:

    Caroline Lucas is upset at the result.

    She really is isn't she? ;)
    Not sure how welcome Jenny Jones will be at the next Green party meeting !
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    I think Lucas is spot on (for once) that we'll probably change the voting system.

    Let the AV threads commence!

    I propose that every election should be a binary choice. Concentrates the mind.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,412
    marke09 said:

    Sinn Fein saying they want a referendum on removal of border if we leave EU

    The one that's already been removed due to our Common Travel Area?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,907

    New Cabinet

    PM - Johnson

    Chancellor - Gove

    Business - Ledsome

    Home - Grayling

    Foreign - Hammond

    A place for Gisela and Kate if they want it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    marke09 said:

    Sinn Fein saying they want a referendum on removal of border if we leave EU

    What's all this "if" about.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Tim_B said:

    Brexit intensifies case for vote on United Ireland - Sinn Fein

    Major problems com
    EPG said:

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    She won't, because she'll lose. Once it's all shaken out and the anger from the remain side is gone, Scotland is still an oil economy with very high structural public spending in a low oil price environment. If they vote to leave the UK they vote to leave Barnett and the billions that it comes with. Scotland's economy is already facing headwinds, their being in the UK has made most of them go away, as a rich nation they would be paying into the EU rather than receiving subsidies.
    As SO said, if the rest of the UK can vote for economic masochism, so can Scotland. If it's about sovereignty, why is Scotland a lesser nation than Ireland? It isn't.
    Ireland will reaply to join the UK once we are free of the EU.
    Erm, empire is not coming back, soz. Who would vote to shoot themselves in the foot in the way GBP/FTSE has gone?
    That is wild and utter fantasy.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Tim_B said:

    Some Green woman named Lucas (?) says the EU was just a proxy in this vote.

    I won't even attempt to parse what that means.

    The EU is wonderful, the voters are just suffering from false consciousness. 'twas ever thus. There are none so blind as will not see.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    nunu said:

    BBC now saying it's democracy. I'm sorry but that is bollocks.

    It really is. Ignore the people at your peril. There was anelection and now we have a result.

    Yep, the people have spoken. It is now encumbent on Leave to deliver on the promises they've made.

    But why can't you work with us to make a better country instead of sniping from the sidelines.

    This could actually be good for progressive politics because the establishment tried to scare the shit out of everyone saying change is bad, and you can't ever change anything, the same thing the Tories always do to the left and in particular Labour at every GE and the public often buy it. But now you have an example where people can overcome fear and make their own minds up.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    If I fall asleep can someone keep reminding people including Mike that one pollster, namely the one for EU.Leave which we think was Survation, got this absolutely spot on. And they didn't poll on voting day: it was conducted in the two days before.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Oh God, these Labour people really need to accept and respect the result.

    Even IF things do go tits-up, the public still aren't going to take well to people who just sit there saying "told you so".
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Shy Leavers.

    No, differential turnout. WWC areas went big on Leave. Those who dont normally vote (completely ignored by polls) went big on Leave.
    They don't get out of bed for Ed Miliband.

    But leaving the EU is a whole different matter...
    You called it, thanks for that, it made sense and made me about £2000.
    Heh I should have more confidence in my own tips :D
    It made a lot of sense. It was quite clear that there was a good chance of differential turnout deciding the outcome and that WWC would be huge turnouts while, in my experience, Scotland would not turn out at all.

    As soon as I saw how weak the turnout was in my area, it was clear Leave would win but I wouldn't have gone for it (especially my peak time cycle-by) if I hadn't read your posts.
    It was the cleaner at my office saying she'd voted and tales of morning queues in Whiston from others that made me realise something might be up. My facebook was also a complete sea of remain, and given they'd have voted for Ed Miliband, AV and other stuff - well I thought the polls might be wrong !
    Local radio was reporting South Yorkshire as 85% Leave on Wednesday morning.

    Sure it was a voodoo poll but ...
    The turnout reports really made a difference. Obviously I was able to measure the Scottish turnout myself (to an extent) but all those reports of huge turnout in WWC areas made it much easier to stake large sums on Leave.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494

    New Cabinet

    PM - Johnson

    Chancellor - Gove

    Business - Ledsome

    Home - Grayling

    Foreign - Hammond

    God help the markets!

    Surely someone with more gravitas as PM and someone with economic credentials as treasurer. Those two positions are make or break.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873

    Brexit bingo - Carolien Lucas calls it as a victory for snake oil!

    Sure we are going to still hear lots of racist & little Englander smears.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,945

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    She won't, because she'll lose. Once it's all shaken out and the anger from the remain side is gone, Scotland is still an oil economy with very high structural public spending in a low oil price environment. If they vote to leave the UK they vote to leave Barnett and the billions that it comes with. Scotland's economy is already facing headwinds, their being in the UK has made most of them go away, as a rich nation they would be paying into the EU rather than receiving subsidies.
    As SO said, if the rest of the UK can vote for economic masochism, so can Scotland. If it's about sovereignty, why is Scotland a lesser nation than Ireland? It isn't.
    Because 55% of them just voted to stay in the union and since then oil prices have crashed.
    Since then the Sterling price has crashed and the British have committed political harikari. The world is different today, is it not?
    By the time they can get another referendum it's not going to be as bad and who knows what the EU will look like.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,723
    Tim_B said:

    Some Green woman named Lucas (?) says the EU was just a proxy in this vote.

    I won't even attempt to parse what that means.

    I don't see why it's relevant in any case. You can speculate that people were really voting about Cameron if you like, or the Tories, or whatever, but the vast majority of electors can read and the question on the ballot paper was still there, so whatever their motivations for doing so, it doesn't matter.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    tlg86 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Anyone know what turnout is presently? BBC seem to have stopped showing it.

    72%
    BBC have given up on results altogether.

    It's now one big funeral dirge. RIP our membership of the EU....

    The BBC can't bear to discuss the live results that are still coming.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    New Cabinet

    PM - Johnson

    Chancellor - Gove

    Business - Ledsome

    Home - Grayling

    Foreign - Hammond

    I think Leadsom would be a good choice for EU negotiator, or Chancellor.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,104
    RobD said:

    marke09 said:

    Sinn Fein saying they want a referendum on removal of border if we leave EU

    The one that's already been removed due to our Common Travel Area?
    Which the UK has now put in question because it's voted to end open borders.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    LOL at Bad Al and his glum face. Cheer up mate, only a fortnight until Chilcot ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,371
    edited June 2016
    Danny565 said:

    Oh God, these Labour people really need to accept and respect the result.

    Even IF things do go tits-up, the public still aren't going to take well to people who just sit there saying "told you so".

    That's our job ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,723
    RobD said:

    I think Lucas is spot on (for once) that we'll probably change the voting system.

    Let the AV threads commence!

    Might be a catalyst for an actual constitutional convention?
    That is sorely needed. Not that he has the authority to do so, but Cameron should call one to resolve a whole host of issues so that when we leave formally we are in a better state.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Leave lead by 1,101,412 votes.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    The people have voted the right way for the wrong reasons.

    But hey, who cares. :)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,040
    kle4 said:

    I'm a bit glum and serious at the moment. Granted I've been up for 24 hours, but I've always been able to eschew any responsibility for anything not going well by voting for losers. Despite all my arguments, I hope it was clear I thought long and hard about what to do, and even when voting I took a good 20 seconds to really consider my options, apparently I didn't really believe Leave would win as I feel a little shell shocked, and now have nowhere to hide should things go poorly, which given the people about to take over as PM at a time of turmoil, will certainly occur in the short term at least. Sobering.

    But likely for the best in the long run - the EU wants things we don't, it's irreconcilable.

    I haven't been on the winning side since 2005!

    You are right that Leave owns what happens now, but you made an honest, heartfelt decision. That is a good thing.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,945

    RobD said:

    marke09 said:

    Sinn Fein saying they want a referendum on removal of border if we leave EU

    The one that's already been removed due to our Common Travel Area?
    Which the UK has now put in question because it's voted to end open borders.
    We never had open borders with the EU.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2016
    Danny565 said:

    Oh God, these Labour people really need to accept and respect the result.

    Even IF things do go tits-up, the public still aren't going to take well to people who just sit there saying "told you so".

    Exactly. They work for us, if they they don't want to do the job then they can **** off.
  • tlg86 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Anyone know what turnout is presently? BBC seem to have stopped showing it.

    72%
    BBC have given up on results altogether.

    It's now one big funeral dirge. RIP our membership of the EU....

    The BBC can't bear to discuss the live results that are still coming.
    Nonsense. They are doing their job - the vote is won and they are discussing what happens next. The story moves on.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,081
    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Bad Al now asking why did we have the referendum in the first place, LOL
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    So who will pick the strawberries now ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,412

    tlg86 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Anyone know what turnout is presently? BBC seem to have stopped showing it.

    72%
    BBC have given up on results altogether.

    It's now one big funeral dirge. RIP our membership of the EU....

    The BBC can't bear to discuss the live results that are still coming.
    Nonsense. They are doing their job - the vote is won and they are discussing what happens next. The story moves on.
    Yep, think the BBC coverage has been okay.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,573
    Anyone want to spare a thought for Wollaston and Warsi ?

    And all those Tories who have been licking Osborne's arse for years :wink:
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Lol. Bad al is sad that "we ever had this referendum". Not that it went Leave, he is pissed we even had it. Pathetic creep.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    edited June 2016
    surbiton said:

    So who will pick the strawberries now ?

    Same people who do now. Either immigration will.remain largely unchanged or they will be allowed to come to work for the season then go home.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    I see the £ is still tanking - checked 5 minutes ago $1.34 - it's just lost another cents....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,104
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    marke09 said:

    Sinn Fein saying they want a referendum on removal of border if we leave EU

    The one that's already been removed due to our Common Travel Area?
    Which the UK has now put in question because it's voted to end open borders.
    We never had open borders with the EU.
    Was that point forcefully made by the Leave campaign?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,730

    Brexit bingo - Carolien Lucas calls it as a victory for snake oil!

    Sure we are going to still hear lots of racist & little Englander smears.
    England just voted to withdraw from an international organisation. I think that for little Englander there is at least a valid case to be made? Of course, maybe Sunderland wants England to be a Singaporean ultracapitalist free-trading nation. lol
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    kle4 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Some Green woman named Lucas (?) says the EU was just a proxy in this vote.

    I won't even attempt to parse what that means.

    I don't see why it's relevant in any case. You can speculate that people were really voting about Cameron if you like, or the Tories, or whatever, but the vast majority of electors can read and the question on the ballot paper was still there, so whatever their motivations for doing so, it doesn't matter.
    I can't imagine what this ideal electorate would look like. Rational. Focused. Able to put all other considerations aside except for THIS ONE QUESTION. No thought for children, husbands, wives, community. Primed with all the information, having thoroughly mastered the problem domain...I can't see it working with human beings. They need to replace us all with robots forthwith.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does UKIP disband now? They've achieved their goal.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,412
    Still weird hearing the result on the headlines...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,202
    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    Where are you seeing this? FTSE futures are 9.992% down as far as I can see
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    New Cabinet

    PM - Johnson

    Chancellor - Gove

    Business - Ledsome

    Home - Grayling

    Foreign - Hammond

    I think Leadsom would be a good choice for EU negotiator, or Chancellor.

    The negotiators must also be in the positions of power in the Cabinet or will not have the right authority to negotiate and will be undermined.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,412
    Laura Kuenssberg ✔ @bbclaurak
    One source tells me Gove and Boris negotiating the terms of Cameron's departure - only one source
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    So I wake up to this...

    UK polling industry 1935 ish - 2016 RIP?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    AndyJS said:

    Does UKIP disband now? They've achieved their goal.

    They have to ensure the Tories do it right.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,906
    Still waiting for my home patch Redbridge, but gotta get some sleep!

    Laters,

    "Today we celebrate our Independence Day!"
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    surbiton said:

    So who will pick the strawberries now ?

    The same people who currently pick them. The consequences of the lack of promised change are enormous.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,412
    welshowl said:

    So I wake up to this...

    UK polling industry 1935 ish - 2016 RIP?

    ICM did okay!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    Think about pension funds. I am being serious.
This discussion has been closed.