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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s finding You Can’t Always Get What EU Want

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,833
    LEAVE now 1 million ahead
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    I think we may need a proper constitutional convention. The constitution has been bent out of shape for decades and we need to resolve it.
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080

    Britain. What the fuck have you done?

    Taken back control? ;)
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,172

    nunu said:

    BBC now saying it's democracy. I'm sorry but that is bollocks.

    It really is. Ignore the people at your peril. There was anelection and now we have a result.

    Yep, the people have spoken. It is now encumbent on Leave to deliver on the promises they've made.

    ;D ;D

    They will try to make everyone happy by telling them annual net inward immigration is down to 175,000 from the Commonwealth! "But I still see them every day."
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,835
    So it was the sun wot won it right?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Britain. What the fuck have you done?

    Believed in ourselves - as we did for a thousand years before. Being a panty-waist wet is your speciality.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Lowlander said:

    Is it just me or does anyone else thing Boris has slept through the whole thing?

    I think he - and other Leavers - really thought it was all over. Someone should nudge him awake, a new day has dawned has it not...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,782
    John_M said:

    john_zims said:

    @SouthamObserver


    'No, we haven't. We've voted to leave. There's a big difference.'

    Junker only yesterday said it was the best deal possible and there would be no further negotiations.

    Was he telling porkies ?

    Juncker isn't the EU. There are plenty of rumblings about him and his management style. We have to hope that the pragmatists step up on all sides.
    They cannot offer us anything without making a rod for their own backs. Our government would collapse if it looked like not leaving to consider a new offer.

    There will be no offer.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    edited June 2016
    Andrew Rawnsley on the Beeb now. Where has Kevin Maguire been?! I can't wait to see his reaction! And the MP for Stone too!!!!!!!!
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    BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Tim Stanley ‏@timothy_stanley 7m7 minutes ago
    "I for one welcome our British overlords."
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Cameron needs to resign and be very clear - "Your mess, you clear it up."

    No, he's the PM, his duty is to implement the result of his referendum.

    Well if he hadn't tried so many underhand methods to win it, maybe. The British don't like a 'cad'.

    I think he should stay on - he's probably already been in contact with other EU leaders as to the best course, and we now need some stability over the next few days, and he still has the backing of a majority of conservative MPs.
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Holy shit, we've left the EU.

    No, we haven't. We've voted to leave. There's a big difference.

    Semantics. Under what circumstances will we not leave? No government would be able to not proceed with the formalities, no offer from brussells will be forthcoming which would convince people to vote again.

    Let's see where things are in six to 12 months.

    john_zims said:

    @SouthamObserver


    'No, we haven't. We've voted to leave. There's a big difference.'

    Junker only yesterday said it was the best deal possible and there would be no further negotiations.

    Was he telling porkies ?

    It's a possibility: "When it becomes serious, you have to lie" - Jean-Claude Juncker

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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    Shy Leavers.

    No, differential turnout. WWC areas went big on Leave. Those who dont normally vote (completely ignored by polls) went big on Leave.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,314
    RobD said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky: Rumours of "dignified exit" for the Posh Boys, swirling round Westminster...

    What would the dignified exit be? :p
    A blanket over their heads as they leave Downing Street?
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Utter madness.

    I am so glad I got rid of all of my UK equity yesterday and put £200 on leave @ 3/1 few days ago...

    Should have put your money into British exporters.

    UK has a masive trade deficit, including with the EU. The fall in the £ will help increase exports in the long term.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Cough - I told you so.

    You laughed and mocked, just like you did when I said the Libdems would lose Yeovil and places like that, but, I told you so.

    £120 to collect now by the look of it :)

    Hopefully Betfair to settle soon, nice £900 profit incoming :)

    Meeks and iSam have bigger boats coming in !
    About 120k on betfair and 25k on betdaq
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,835
    Wel Cameron's legacy in the history books is certainly going to be an interesting one.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065

    nunu said:

    BBC now saying it's democracy. I'm sorry but that is bollocks.

    It really is. Ignore the people at your peril. There was anelection and now we have a result.

    Yep, the people have spoken. It is now encumbent on Leave to deliver on the promises they've made.

    SO. I won't doubt you ever again... well until the next time. Congratulations on calling this right even if it's not the outcome we both wanted.

    I genuinely could not see how Remain could win. It just seemed so obvious.

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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    Just checked - my nojam was 52.8 Leave, but I was miles out on turnout 54.6 - shamefaced.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2016

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    You do realise the UK is no longer the only Eurosceptic country in the EU? The EU is over - in its current guise at least.

    The UK will outlive it.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,782
    murali_s said:

    JenS said:

    If the UK is in meltdown, so will the EU be. I am not convinced that the Scottish will want to cut loose from the UK and throw their lot in with the EU now.

    The EU will fare better than UK in the short to medium term hence why the breakup of the UK is a very serious probability.
    If I'd thought we could secure the stability of the UK by voting Remain, I would have. The SNP's dominance makes clear we are were on shaky ground as it was.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016

    Cameron needs to resign and be very clear - "Your mess, you clear it up."

    What is your view of the queen's last-minute intervention to help Leave?

    She was reported in the Sun to be fond of asking people "Tell me three good reasons for staying in the EU". That was on Wednesday.

    (The main reason I left my money on Leave rather than bailing out was because the Sun and the monarch both backed Leave.)

    That story about the monarch can't have been printed without the OK from the Palace. Otherwise they'd have complained.

    Maybe Cameron should declare that he's going to hand in his resignation to the queen and that since she wanted this mess, she can advise her f*cking self on who to appoint as his f*cking successor.

    :D
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,256

    LEAVE now 1 million ahead

    Redbridge should go Leave.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080
    edited June 2016

    Shy Leavers.

    I always said, when you are accusing people of people of being racist, xenophobic and possibly even being somehow responsible for someone's murder, they might, just might be reluctant to talk to pollsters on the Dog. ;)
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,616
    Went to bed at 1.30 certain leave would win and now woken up and they have. It is chaos out there but I am not seeking blame. The EU has failed and the result is dramatic. As a remainer I have to admit to a strange feeling of freedom but we now need a serious coming together of the conservative. Most seem to feel David Cameron must continue for stability and of course he knows everyone in the EU. Well done leave but get rid of Farage
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,172
    kle4 said:

    John_M said:

    john_zims said:

    @SouthamObserver


    'No, we haven't. We've voted to leave. There's a big difference.'

    Junker only yesterday said it was the best deal possible and there would be no further negotiations.

    Was he telling porkies ?

    Juncker isn't the EU. There are plenty of rumblings about him and his management style. We have to hope that the pragmatists step up on all sides.
    They cannot offer us anything without making a rod for their own backs. Our government would collapse if it looked like not leaving to consider a new offer.

    There will be no offer.
    Yes. Please listen to this individual and SeanT, everyone. It is called democracy. Vote out, get out. You own it.
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    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    You can't have Cameron staying to oversee the exit, there would be no confidence in him, as he would disagree with his own actions. I'm sure he knows that and will resign straight away but, to calm nerves, would stay on until a leadership vote.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,080
    Lowlander said:

    Shy Leavers.

    No, differential turnout. WWC areas went big on Leave. Those who dont normally vote (completely ignored by polls) went big on Leave.
    They don't get out of bed for Ed Miliband.

    But leaving the EU is a whole different matter...
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    On a positive note, it is quite funny watching the BBC reaction.

    If the Tories winning a majority last year was a shock to the dears, this is off the scale!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,833

    So it was the sun wot won it right?

    No, it was The Sunil wot won it!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,782
    Mortimer said:

    Just checked - my nojam was 52.8 Leave, but I was miles out on turnout 54.6 - shamefaced.

    My turnout looks like it's in the 40s, but that's because I entered the wrong number in error (clearly I would never think turnout would be that low).
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    kle4 said:

    John_M said:

    john_zims said:

    @SouthamObserver


    'No, we haven't. We've voted to leave. There's a big difference.'

    Junker only yesterday said it was the best deal possible and there would be no further negotiations.

    Was he telling porkies ?

    Juncker isn't the EU. There are plenty of rumblings about him and his management style. We have to hope that the pragmatists step up on all sides.
    They cannot offer us anything without making a rod for their own backs. Our government would collapse if it looked like not leaving to consider a new offer.

    There will be no offer.
    I meant in terms of trade, residency rights and so on. The French will want to have a ruck, I imagine the Germans won't. There's been a lot of noises off about punishing the Brits pour encourager les autres. That might be a gratifying impulse, but it's really, really not in the EU's interests to do that. It would be counterproductive in my view.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Wel Cameron's legacy in the history books is certainly going to be an interesting one.

    And entirely deserved.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,327
    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Shy Leavers.

    No, differential turnout. WWC areas went big on Leave. Those who dont normally vote (completely ignored by polls) went big on Leave.
    They don't get out of bed for Ed Miliband.

    But leaving the EU is a whole different matter...
    How pissed off must he be right now?
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Wel Cameron's legacy in the history books is certainly going to be an interesting one.

    Absolutely. The Thrice Referenda PM!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,835
    John_N4 said:

    Cameron needs to resign and be very clear - "Your mess, you clear it up."

    What is your view of the queen's last-minute intervention to help Leave?

    She was reported in the Sun to be fond of asking people "Tell me three good reasons for staying in the EU". That was on Wednesday.

    (The main reason I left my money on Leave rather than bailing out was because the Sun and the monarch both backed Leave.)

    That can't have been printed without the OK from the Palace. Otherwise they'd have complained.

    Maybe Cameron should declare that he's going to hand in his resignation to the queen and that since she wanted this mess, she can advise her f*cking self on who to appoint as his f*cking successor.

    :D
    Will there be reports of liz purring?
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited June 2016
    @Bob__Sykes

    'The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful? '


    It's great , if Scotland & NI want to leave that's their choice.

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    weejonnie said:

    Cameron needs to resign and be very clear - "Your mess, you clear it up."

    No, he's the PM, his duty is to implement the result of his referendum.

    Well if he hadn't tried so many underhand methods to win it, maybe. The British don't like a 'cad'.

    I think he should stay on - he's probably already been in contact with other EU leaders as to the best course, and we now need some stability over the next few days, and he still has the backing of a majority of conservative MPs.
    He will have to go quite soon but not now.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    So who becomes PM? Boris? Theresa?
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2016
    Hardman: Osborne will be gone soon.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,835
    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Shy Leavers.

    No, differential turnout. WWC areas went big on Leave. Those who dont normally vote (completely ignored by polls) went big on Leave.
    They don't get out of bed for Ed Miliband.

    But leaving the EU is a whole different matter...
    And they didn't even offer them a free owl.
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Shy Leavers.

    No, differential turnout. WWC areas went big on Leave. Those who dont normally vote (completely ignored by polls) went big on Leave.
    They don't get out of bed for Ed Miliband.

    But leaving the EU is a whole different matter...
    You called it, thanks for that, it made sense and made me about £2000.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,080
    Million mark passed.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    So it was the sun wot won it right?

    No, it was The Sunil wot won it!
    Time to launch the Sunil across the states that will follow the UK like a domino.......Denmark, Sweden, Poland, France............
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,603
    PlatoSaid said:

    Wel Cameron's legacy in the history books is certainly going to be an interesting one.

    And entirely deserved.
    The heir to Blair has reaped what Blair sowed.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,947

    john_zims said:

    @SouthamObserver


    'No, we haven't. We've voted to leave. There's a big difference.'

    Junker only yesterday said it was the best deal possible and there would be no further negotiations.

    Was he telling porkies ?

    Of course. And we may just find that the experts had some idea of what they were talking about. It could just be the EU may not look so horrific a few months down the line.

    Objectively the EU is a better option for the UK than the other two likely options: EEA or a Korean style FTA. But as people were asked, do you want be in the EU, albeit out of context, and said No it's hard to see a way back. We'll just have to sort something out from the other two options, but they're definitely worse than what we have
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    After tonight, even if Remain somehow manages to scrape a narrow won, the EU needs to display some humility

    Blaming the size of the Leave vote on the dark forces of the British press, or supposed British racism will just make the EU seem like sore losers, as will claiming the Leave vote was really an anti-Tory vote.

    Instead, the EU needs to look in the mirror, recognise that it is not perfect, and admit the UK had legitimate grievances against it.

    Hopefully, the shock of this result will enable the EU's leaders to push through major reforms, but are they up to that challenge?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,080
    Lowlander said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Shy Leavers.

    No, differential turnout. WWC areas went big on Leave. Those who dont normally vote (completely ignored by polls) went big on Leave.
    They don't get out of bed for Ed Miliband.

    But leaving the EU is a whole different matter...
    You called it, thanks for that, it made sense and made me about £2000.
    Heh I should have more confidence in my own tips :D
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    john_zims said:

    @Bob__Sykes
    choice.

    Not a word in the EU copybook.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,833
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Shy Leavers.

    No, differential turnout. WWC areas went big on Leave. Those who dont normally vote (completely ignored by polls) went big on Leave.
    They don't get out of bed for Ed Miliband.

    But leaving the EU is a whole different matter...
    How pissed off must he be right now?
    EICIPO?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080

    Hardman: Osborne will be gone soon.

    I think he has to go today. And Carney possibly.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2016
    BBC's polling expert, John Curtice, claiming he saw it all along and could not understand why the finanacial markets did not. :o
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Pandora's Box well and truly opened according to the Sky NI correspondent. Time to open Pandora's Box in many other ways as well.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,419

    viewcode said:

    03:59
    Declan Kearney, a Northern Ireland Assembly member for Sinn Féin, says his party will push for a poll on whether Northern Ireland should stay in the UK or unite with the Republic of Ireland if the UK votes to leave the EU. He says it will be "completely undemocratic" if the majority of people in Northern Ireland vote Remain but are "drawn out of the EU as a result of being carried on the coat-tails" of voters in England. "Sinn Féin will continue to press... for a border poll under the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement, because this (EU Referendum) will demonstrate palpably a dramatic change in the political landscape of the north," he says.

    Declan Kearney
    BBC h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

    Ooops.

    Would they have any chance of winning that? I know the demographic have been moving in their direction but aren't they still a fair way off?
    As soon as the Ireland/Northern Ireland border becomes a UK/EU border, then the question of hw to resolve it becomes rather pressing. And as previous discussions n this board have shown, the UK does not know how to resolve it
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    GIN1138 said:

    Shy Leavers.

    I always said, when you are accusing people of people of being racist, xenophobic and possibly even being somehow responsible for someone's murder, they might, just might be reluctant to talk to pollsters on the Dog. ;)
    Me too. The scum who pulled that stunt have no future in British politics...
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,047
    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    The PB commentariat totally wrong again
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,835
    Does Peter Kellner still reckon it's a remain victory ;-)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,782

    Hardman: Osborne will be gone soon.

    Well duh - he was probably gone anyway, as the price for party unity in the event of Remain winning.

    I presume Cameron will appoint a new Leaver Chancellor and Foreign Secretary but leave May in place, then announce he is stepping down as Leader of the party and will tender his resignation to the queen once the party selects a successor.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    "Why I’m Touring 31 Cities in 31 Days Campaigning for Britain to Remain"

    Eddie Izzard does it again :lol:
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,833

    LEAVE now 1 million ahead

    Redbridge should go Leave.
    Still no result - I want to got to bed :lol:
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    Despite everything thrown at them. Leave have done it. We are free.

    We are the people of England; and we have not spoken yet. Smile at us, pay us, pass us. But do not quite forget.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @John_N4"


    'She was reported in the Sun to be fond of asking people "Tell me three good reasons for staying in the EU".


    I think a lot of voters asked themselves the same question and couldn't find one good reason.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,172
    runnymede said:

    The PB commentariat totally wrong again

    GE 2015, Corbyn, now this. Khan was called right, but more obvious.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hillingdon:

    Remain: 58,040
    Leave: 74,982
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Hillingdon loyal to Boris!
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    bazzerbazzer Posts: 44
    GIN1138 said:

    Hardman: Osborne will be gone soon.

    I think he has to go today. And Carney possibly.
    Absolutely inconceivable that either of them could go at a time of such potential market instabilitiy - they are probably needed more in their roles over the next days and weeks than at any time since they came to office.
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Shy Leavers.

    No, differential turnout. WWC areas went big on Leave. Those who dont normally vote (completely ignored by polls) went big on Leave.
    They don't get out of bed for Ed Miliband.

    But leaving the EU is a whole different matter...
    You called it, thanks for that, it made sense and made me about £2000.
    Heh I should have more confidence in my own tips :D
    It made a lot of sense. It was quite clear that there was a good chance of differential turnout deciding the outcome and that WWC would be huge turnouts while, in my experience, Scotland would not turn out at all.

    As soon as I saw how weak the turnout was in my area, it was clear Leave would win but I wouldn't have gone for it (especially my peak time cycle-by) if I hadn't read your posts.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065
    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    If the English can vote for economic self harm, why not the Scots?

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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596

    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Shy Leavers.

    No, differential turnout. WWC areas went big on Leave. Those who dont normally vote (completely ignored by polls) went big on Leave.
    They don't get out of bed for Ed Miliband.

    But leaving the EU is a whole different matter...
    And they didn't even offer them a free owl.
    Now you can have an unregulated owl, any size you want..
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Getting a seat back on the WTO...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,835

    Pulpstar said:

    Lowlander said:

    Shy Leavers.

    No, differential turnout. WWC areas went big on Leave. Those who dont normally vote (completely ignored by polls) went big on Leave.
    They don't get out of bed for Ed Miliband.

    But leaving the EU is a whole different matter...
    And they didn't even offer them a free owl.
    Now you can have an unregulated owl, any size you want..
    And they can be straight or bendy...
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Cameron will resign. I hope he tells the queen that since she intervened in the referendum she'd better decide for herself who to appoint as his successor and whether to call a general election. But he's more likely to kowtow and to stay on as caretaker. Then the Tory party has a stabbing festival leadership contest, and the winner - obviously someone who supported Leave - becomes PM, and the Tories all rally round for the good of the nasty party and in solidarity against oiks, Polaks, Krauts, Frogs, dagos and the Arabs - but especially those dirty smelly oiks, those oiks who just helped them out.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,172
    hunchman said:

    Pandora's Box well and truly opened according to the Sky NI correspondent. Time to open Pandora's Box in many other ways as well.

    You're allowed say what you like now. Farage was talking about immigrants ruining Bolton yesterday.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,080
    runnymede said:

    The PB commentariat totally wrong again

    Were we ?
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    Bring on a second Indy ref for Scotland.

    The fall in oil revenue makes them bankrupt. Who will vote for bankruptcy?
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    BigIanBigIan Posts: 198

    So it was the sun wot won it right?

    No, it was The Sunil wot won it!
    All the PBers tactically voting Leave so the Remain margin wouldn't be too high.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    runnymede said:

    The PB commentariat totally wrong again

    Welcome back.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    If the English can vote for economic self harm, why not the Scots?

    Well, the Scots will be voting to become an EU minnow, it's hardly independence. However, if that's what they want, then they should be allowed to do so.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Never seen Nigel Evans so sunburnt!
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080
    edited June 2016
    bazzer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Hardman: Osborne will be gone soon.

    I think he has to go today. And Carney possibly.
    Absolutely inconceivable that either of them could go at a time of such potential market instabilitiy - they are probably needed more in their roles over the next days and weeks than at any time since they came to office.
    How can the markets possibly have confidence in these two after all the warnings of hell they've been giving out.

    Hammond for Chancellor and Mervyn back at BoE for a few months ASAP...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,782
    Cameron, in most ways, has not been a bad PM. Not great, but not bad, and he's made great strides for the Tory party. But he was simply not up to the task of resolving the EU issue for the public. Could they have been swayed to Remain? Presumably, it is pretty close. But he was not up to that.

    An EU referendum was called for years and years ago, before Greece and all the rest of the recent troubles. Cameron didn't cause the mess, but it was too big by the time he got to it and trying to avoid it just made it worse.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,172

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    Bring on a second Indy ref for Scotland.

    The fall in oil revenue makes them bankrupt. Who will vote for bankruptcy?
    This is the kind of sneering that apparently made decent people vote LEAVE. It's on.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065
    FF43 said:

    john_zims said:

    @SouthamObserver


    'No, we haven't. We've voted to leave. There's a big difference.'

    Junker only yesterday said it was the best deal possible and there would be no further negotiations.

    Was he telling porkies ?

    Of course. And we may just find that the experts had some idea of what they were talking about. It could just be the EU may not look so horrific a few months down the line.

    Objectively the EU is a better option for the UK than the other two likely options: EEA or a Korean style FTA. But as people were asked, do you want be in the EU, albeit out of context, and said No it's hard to see a way back. We'll just have to sort something out from the other two options, but they're definitely worse than what we have

    There are always ways and means.

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,833
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    03:59
    Declan Kearney, a Northern Ireland Assembly member for Sinn Féin, says his party will push for a poll on whether Northern Ireland should stay in the UK or unite with the Republic of Ireland if the UK votes to leave the EU. He says it will be "completely undemocratic" if the majority of people in Northern Ireland vote Remain but are "drawn out of the EU as a result of being carried on the coat-tails" of voters in England. "Sinn Féin will continue to press... for a border poll under the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement, because this (EU Referendum) will demonstrate palpably a dramatic change in the political landscape of the north," he says.

    Declan Kearney
    BBC h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

    Ooops.

    Would they have any chance of winning that? I know the demographic have been moving in their direction but aren't they still a fair way off?
    As soon as the Ireland/Northern Ireland border becomes a UK/EU border, then the question of hw to resolve it becomes rather pressing. And as previous discussions n this board have shown, the UK does not know how to resolve it
    Both the Republic and the UK are outside Schengen, and have their own Common Travel Area.

    Note that Schengen INCLUDES non-EU members like Iceland and Switzerland.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    She won't, because she'll lose. Once it's all shaken out and the anger from the remain side is gone, Scotland is still an oil economy with very high structural public spending in a low oil price environment. If they vote to leave the UK they vote to leave Barnett and the billions that it comes with. Scotland's economy is already facing headwinds, their being in the UK has made most of them go away, as a rich nation they would be paying into the EU rather than receiving subsidies.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2016
    Leadsom on the Beeb. Smiling and upbeat, cutting across the manly gloom.
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    ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 165
    Paul. Good morning from a free Bedordshire. Chestertons people did it.
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    Getting a seat back on the WTO...

    But soon losing a seat on the UN Security Council when the UK dissolves.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Pulpstar said:

    runnymede said:

    The PB commentariat totally wrong again

    Were we ?
    I was. I wrote a 'throwing in the towel' note on Tuesday. Couldn't see any chance of Brexit. Thought I composed it quite well. All wasted effort! Still thought Remain would claw it back as late as 2am.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,419
    MaxPB said:

    ...For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed...

    If the UK government cannot deliver stable governance nor a stable currency then Scotland may consider its best interests lie elsewhere. GBP is tanking as we speak, which gives Scotland impetus to leave the UK.

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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2016
    Lashings of wine without EU tariffs on its way from New Zealand. :)

    No more Frog wine.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Lol at duckface Thornberry.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Thornberry distraught.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065
    John_M said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    The UK cannot now survive.

    Scotland will stay in the EU as an independent nation. Ireland presumably will be reunified.

    Democracy. Ain't it wonderful?

    Both of these are unlikely. For Scotland none of the fundamentals have changed and in NI the unionists all voted to Leave.
    Well Brexit changes everything economically - all bets are now very much ON the table. Nicola will get her second indy ref and Scotland will 100% vote for independence this time. Why stay attached to a country that is now facing huge economic headwinds. You might as well go it alone. In a way, this is the perfect result for the SNP.

    If the English can vote for economic self harm, why not the Scots?

    Well, the Scots will be voting to become an EU minnow, it's hardly independence. However, if that's what they want, then they should be allowed to do so.

    Of course.

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    PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    By jove we've done it! What a fantastic day, let the optimism roll on.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,128
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    03:59
    Declan Kearney, a Northern Ireland Assembly member for Sinn Féin, says his party will push for a poll on whether Northern Ireland should stay in the UK or unite with the Republic of Ireland if the UK votes to leave the EU. He says it will be "completely undemocratic" if the majority of people in Northern Ireland vote Remain but are "drawn out of the EU as a result of being carried on the coat-tails" of voters in England. "Sinn Féin will continue to press... for a border poll under the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement, because this (EU Referendum) will demonstrate palpably a dramatic change in the political landscape of the north," he says.

    Declan Kearney
    BBC h ttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

    Ooops.

    Would they have any chance of winning that? I know the demographic have been moving in their direction but aren't they still a fair way off?
    As soon as the Ireland/Northern Ireland border becomes a UK/EU border, then the question of hw to resolve it becomes rather pressing. And as previous discussions n this board have shown, the UK does not know how to resolve it
    Northern Ireland only voted narrowly to Remain. They aren't going to join the Republic.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,140

    Thornberry distraught.

    Please. That's Lady Nugee to you.
This discussion has been closed.