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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s 10/1 on a second EU Referendum being held before July

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  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:


    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.

    I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.

    On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
    Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
    I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
    Of the 4 mc middle aged scots I have spoken to it has been 2:2.
    Lunch today was 5 Leave, 1 undecided.
    Any feel for how things are going in your area ?

    Your canvassing reports were accurate last year.
    Been a co-ordinated blitz of REMAIN posters down here since Thursday, placed in prominent places. The Leave people leave them in place, whereas Remain have been ripping down and destroying a lot of LEAVE posters. Also heard of Leavers having their houses egged. Nice proponents of democracy, these Remainers.

    There has been plenty of Leave leafletting of even the rural villages. Just two left to do locally. Have heard that Torquay, Paignton, Brixham are solidly Leave, whilst Totnes (with its town-twinning with Narnia) is as expected better for Remain.

    I expect Leave to be comfortably ahead round here on the day.


  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RoyalBlue said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:


    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.

    I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.

    On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
    Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
    I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
    I am a middle aged, middle class Londoner of Glaswegian extraction. And I voted Leave.
    Middle class? Please stop, my sides have split :tongue:
    I'm in trade, darling
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994
    John_M said:

    marke09 said:

    IS there anything stopping the other EU states turning round on Friday if we vote remain and veto the so called renegotiation package

    It's more likely going to be the ECJ to cause issues. As the euro-diplomat story had it in the Telegraph earlier this week, we've been offered a deal so generous, it's actually illegal. I suppose Schulz might stir up trouble in parliament....but who knows?
    As I posted a few days ago, key parts require the agreement of the European Parliament and of the individual Parliaments of the other 27 countries.
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    viewcode said:
    Just watched him the other night in the fright night remake.

    So young,RIP.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,895
    Do we know in which order the councils will declare, and when we should start getting a picture of which way the vote is falling?
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Sion Simon MEP

    The top columnist?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,411
    marke09 said:

    marke09 said:

    Tomorrow is the Longest Day ;-)

    Isn't it Tuesday, but maybe if you are for leave with all the media coverage connected to Jo Cox
    according to google this year its tomorrow - due to extra day in Feb
    Tomorrow at 11.34pm British Summer Time, to be precise :)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summer_solstice
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:


    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.

    I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.

    On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
    Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
    I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
    I am a middle aged, middle class Londoner of Glaswegian extraction. And I voted Leave.
    You're not middle aged yet!
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:


    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.

    I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.

    On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
    Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
    I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
    I am a middle aged, middle class Londoner of Glaswegian extraction. And I voted Leave.
    Middle class? Please stop, my sides have split :tongue:
    I'm in trade, darling
    In that case, please ensure you use the rear entrance to pb in future, my good man *draws skirts aside*
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    Sean_F said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    I think it unlikely that Leave can win, unless it is government policy to advocate Leave; and very unlikely that a government would lose a referendum, if it advocated Leave.
    I also think that the government would actually have a destination in mind, which would make the whole thing a lot more honest.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    My heart lifted this evening as I heard on the BBC that Cameron was laughed at by the audience in his special Question Time program earlier today.

    For a politician being laughed at is the pits.

    Come on LEAVE!
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:


    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.

    I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.

    On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
    Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
    I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
    I am a middle aged, middle class Londoner of Glaswegian extraction. And I voted Leave.
    Middle class? Please stop, my sides have split :tongue:
    I'm in trade, darling
    Even peers have to work these days! If it weren't for Mr Lloyd George...
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950
    Charles said:



    I am a middle aged, middle class Londoner of Glaswegian extraction. And I voted Leave.

    Yes, but you are also one of The Elder Ones who have walked amongst Men for ages uncounted... :)

  • Options

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:


    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.

    I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.

    On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
    Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
    I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
    Of the 4 mc middle aged scots I have spoken to it has been 2:2.
    Lunch today was 5 Leave, 1 undecided.
    A family gathering was it MM?

    (Only joking!)
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,411

    Jason said:

    I'd certainly like to tick JHB's box.
    I thought you weren't supposed to show your ballot paper?
    Stock photo, hopefully :)
  • Options
    StarfallStarfall Posts: 78
    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    I do not think he would want to lead that coalition. He is happy to have lost the 'fruitcakes and closet racists', so would not want the UKIP ones back or the same type from Labour. I think his ideal coalition would be business-focused conservatives, Umunna-type Labour members and Clegg-type Liberal Democrats.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:


    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.

    I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.

    On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
    Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
    I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
    I am a middle aged, middle class Londoner of Glaswegian extraction. And I voted Leave.
    You're not middle aged yet!
    Still in denial then, Robert :p
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,727
    alex. said:

    I think she might have just committed a criminal offence...
    I think that it would be in an election, not sure about a referendum.
    In any case it's a bit naff.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950

    ...Likewise it would be good for the UK tourism industry...

    Yes. A lot of foreign people can come to the UK and laugh at us for being paid in a currency not worth pants.


    ...And probably for agricultural and food processing exports.

    I must have missed that massive grain surplus we had last year.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Any polls tonight? Apologies if someone has already said.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359



    There has been plenty of Leave leafletting of even the rural villages. Just two left to do locally. Have heard that Torquay, Paignton, Brixham are solidly Leave, whilst Totnes (with its town-twinning with Narnia) is as expected better for Remain.

    I expect Leave to be comfortably ahead round here on the day.


    I was in Newton Abbot, Dartmouth and Totnes for a few days this week, staying with family (a couple with divided opinions). Very few posters of any kind - saw 3 Leave ones (one in a car), 1 Remain. Also in Penzance for half a day - saw a couple of Remain posters there, no Leave. All really about the visible intensity of a borough council election, but perhaps things are humming below the surface.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    marke09 said:

    marke09 said:

    Tomorrow is the Longest Day ;-)

    Isn't it Tuesday, but maybe if you are for leave with all the media coverage connected to Jo Cox
    according to google this year its tomorrow - due to extra day in Feb
    Tomorrow at 11.34pm British Summer Time, to be precise :)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summer_solstice
    and then WINTER IS COMING!!!!!!! ;)
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,371
    Lowlander said:

    Mr. Booth, the eurozone countries seem very unlikely to do it. Which leaves... Sweden? Denmark's position to Germany is comparable to how Ireland trades with the UK, isn't it [which likely rules them out]?

    They've integrated so much the pain of leaving is far higher. In a few years it'll be even worse. Then when the EU collapses, it'll be catastrophic.

    It seems to me that all the countries north of the Alps would be much better off ditching the EU and joining an expanded Nordic Circle. I'd be perfectly happy with Estonia and Latvia along with the Scandinavian countries, Germany, Poland, Denmark, the Netherlands, the UK and I suspect Norway and Iceland might find that a much more appealing offer. Only four of them would even have to switch away from the Euro as well.

    Maybe even the Czech Repubic and Slovakia but absolutely no Belgium, it's not even a real country.
    Didn't we just once fight a pretty major war on that issue? But I know what you mean. When you have a joke of a country which can't even form a government for months on end an EU government that you don't even have to vote for must look more attractive.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RoyalBlue said:

    Charles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:


    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.

    I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.

    On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
    Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
    I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
    I am a middle aged, middle class Londoner of Glaswegian extraction. And I voted Leave.
    Middle class? Please stop, my sides have split :tongue:
    I'm in trade, darling
    Even peers have to work these days! If it weren't for Mr Lloyd George...
    One of my cousins summed it up perfectly in the 20s:

    "God has been good to our family: we have been asked to work in a manner which is not unpleasant, in which we can be of quiet service to people and which is not unrewarded in worldly terms"
  • Options
    marke09marke09 Posts: 926

    Jason said:

    I'd certainly like to tick JHB's box.
    I thought you weren't supposed to show your ballot paper?
    Stock photo, hopefully :)
    you can as long as no one is in the photo who can eb identified
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:


    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.

    I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.

    On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
    Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
    I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
    Of the 4 mc middle aged scots I have spoken to it has been 2:2.
    Lunch today was 5 Leave, 1 undecided.
    A family gathering was it MM?

    (Only joking!)
    Included a couple of Labour-luvvies who have somehow been smuggled into the South Hams. (Both violently anti-Corbyn though.)
  • Options
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:


    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.

    I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.

    On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
    Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
    I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
    I am a middle aged, middle class Londoner of Glaswegian extraction. And I voted Leave.
    Charles - just a few days ago, weren't you also referring to one of your family elders having been married to a Princess ? Middle-class .... my backside.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2016
    RoyalBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Lowlander said:

    Chameleon said:

    Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.

    Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.

    Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seved for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.

    *Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof.

    Or at least that's what the reports suggest - it would be amusing if things turned out to be different to what we expect.
    I believe 60:40 to Leave is entirely possible. But I think the big issue is that most of us only hang out with people like ourselves. So, we only see people with the same voted.

    Of the 30 odd people in my office, I am the only Leaver. 29-1. Staggering. Our ESG analyst spends her weekends campaigning for Remain.

    In NW3 I've seen perhaps 20 Remain posters, and no Leave ones.

    London is a lost cause for Leave, unless Commonwealth migrants go big for Leave out of resentment for how they're treated compared to EU migrants. Most of the people I know (Kent and London) are for Remain; ironically, most of those who are migrants are for Leave though.
    Is that really your experience with Kent? All my family there are voting Leave, and Vote Leave posters are very much in evidence with no sign of BSE.

    I'm not in 'proper' Kent but a commuter town just outside the M25, so I expect Remain to do well here, it's a 50/50 split between Leave and Remain posters (one Leave poster was attacked with offensive graffiti, but they're wipe-clean!). I think for Kent you only need to look at the PCC elections from May - it was a straight fight between UKIP and Tory and UKIP won in the east (Men of Kent) and the Tories in the west (Kentish men). EU vote will be a similar split I think, with county's overall result Leave.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950


    Just watched him the other night in the fright night remake.

    So young,RIP.

    Yeah, and he was in Terminator:Salvation - and one of the better things in it, to be honest.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Personally I think we should unite with Germany and invade France. When you look at our shared history, it's practically been a hobby.
  • Options
    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:


    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.

    I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.

    On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
    Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
    I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
    I am a middle aged, middle class Londoner of Glaswegian extraction. And I voted Leave.
    Charles - just a few days ago, weren't you also referring to one of your family elders having been married to a Princess ? Middle-class .... my backside.
    Are you bending the knee to a lord, Peter?
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    And tied up the last two years of his Premiership spent in interminable negotiations with the EU, whilst dealing with significant economic fallout and comprehensively failing to deliver the expectations of those who had voted on the back of his "leadership".

    Yes I can see why he didn't really want that.



  • Options
    Chameleon said:

    Do we know in which order the councils will declare, and when we should start getting a picture of which way the vote is falling?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/19/eu-referendum-result-polls-britain-europe

    For an overview. A list was publish of estimated declaration times for Indyref, so I'll have a dig about to see if there's similar for EUref.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    marke09 said:

    marke09 said:

    Tomorrow is the Longest Day ;-)

    Isn't it Tuesday, but maybe if you are for leave with all the media coverage connected to Jo Cox
    according to google this year its tomorrow - due to extra day in Feb
    Well I didn't know that and I was born on the 29th February 1944 as V bombs were flying over our house in Manchester
    Are you sure about those V1s, Big G? The first wasn't launched against the UK until June 1944 and I don't think they had the range to hit Manchester.

    Somewhere in the attic I have a map of the "landing point" of every V1 that hit the UK, after the initial barrage most were to the South and South East of London, primarily due to the fine work done by the XX committee as I recall.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,895

    Chameleon said:

    Do we know in which order the councils will declare, and when we should start getting a picture of which way the vote is falling?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/19/eu-referendum-result-polls-britain-europe

    For an overview. A list was publish of estimated declaration times for Indyref, so I'll have a dig about to see if there's similar for EUref.
    Thanks.
  • Options
    NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:


    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.

    I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.

    On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
    Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
    I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
    Of the 4 mc middle aged scots I have spoken to it has been 2:2.
    Lunch today was 5 Leave, 1 undecided.
    A family gathering was it MM?

    (Only joking!)
    I find it it difficult to find a remainer too. Certainly where i live and areas nearby there are no remain posters. On FB there are a couple of the usual suspects. Admittedly I haven't been to a major city recently. But it all seems a bit unreal.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2016

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:


    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.

    I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.

    On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
    Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
    I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
    I am a middle aged, middle class Londoner of Glaswegian extraction. And I voted Leave.
    Charles - just a few days ago, weren't you also referring to one of your family elders having been married to a Princess ? Middle-class .... my backside.
    Nah, that's my dear friend and cousin HSH Marie-Severine [she's my age and we used to hang out together as kids]
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,519
    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    This was never about electoral success or party unity. This is about the establishment docking us forever to the EU, and they will do so, whatever it takes. It is really only a miracle imo that can win it for Leave now. God undoubtedly endorses Leave; he's especially against the CAP - 'Unused fields could yield plenty of food for the poor, but unjust men keep them from being farmed'. And famously in favour of the fishing industry.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    MikeK said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lowlander said:


    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.

    I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.

    On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
    Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
    I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
    I am a middle aged, middle class Londoner of Glaswegian extraction. And I voted Leave.
    Charles - just a few days ago, weren't you also referring to one of your family elders having been married to a Princess ? Middle-class .... my backside.
    Are you bending the knee to a lord, Peter?
    Don't interrupt his genuflection!
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    marke09 said:

    marke09 said:

    Tomorrow is the Longest Day ;-)

    Isn't it Tuesday, but maybe if you are for leave with all the media coverage connected to Jo Cox
    according to google this year its tomorrow - due to extra day in Feb
    Well I didn't know that and I was born on the 29th February 1944 as V bombs were flying over our house in Manchester
    Are you sure about those V1s, Big G? The first wasn't launched against the UK until June 1944 and I don't think they had the range to hit Manchester.

    Somewhere in the attic I have a map of the "landing point" of every V1 that hit the UK, after the initial barrage most were to the South and South East of London, primarily due to the fine work done by the XX committee as I recall.
    Only on PB :).
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,800
    Farage deserves quite a lot of respect.

    I'd not vote for the man to represent me, nor would I agree with many of his views. Nonetheless an issue that he has been the chief flag-waver for is being decided by a national referendum. This is extraordinary.

    Whatever the result Nigel Farage is an important man.


  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Lowlander said:

    Chameleon said:

    Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.

    Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.

    Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seved for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.

    *Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof.

    Or at least that's what the reports suggest - it would be amusing if things turned out to be different to what we expect.
    I believe 60:40 to Leave is entirely possible. But I think the big issue is that most of us only hang out with people like ourselves. So, we only see people with the same voted.

    Of the 30 odd people in my office, I am the only Leaver. 29-1. Staggering. Our ESG analyst spends her weekends campaigning for Remain.

    In NW3 I've seen perhaps 20 Remain posters, and no Leave ones.

    London is a lost cause for Leave, unless Commonwealth migrants go big for Leave out of resentment for how they're treated compared to EU migrants. Most of the people I know (Kent and London) are for Remain; ironically, most of those who are migrants are for Leave though.
    Is that really your experience with Kent? All my family there are voting Leave, and Vote Leave posters are very much in evidence with no sign of BSE.

    I'm not in 'proper' Kent but a commuter town just outside the M25, so I expect Remain to do well here, it's a 50/50 split between Leave and Remain posters (one Leave poster was attacked with offensive graffiti, but they're wipe-clean!). I think for Kent you only need to look at the PCC elections from May - it was a straight fight between UKIP and Tory and UKIP won in the east (Men of Kent) and the Tories in the west (Kentish men). EU vote will be a similar split I think, with county's overall result Leave.
    I'm surprised you think it will be 50:50; I expect Leave will do rather better than that in Bromley, which is much more susceptible to 'metropolitan' (God forbid) influences.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    alex. said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    And tied up the last two years of his Premiership spent in interminable negotiations with the EU, whilst dealing with significant economic fallout and comprehensively failing to deliver the expectations of those who had voted on the back of his "leadership".

    Yes I can see why he didn't really want that.



    He's got nothing planned for this year at all given the Queen's Speech.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,519
    viewcode said:

    ...Likewise it would be good for the UK tourism industry...

    Yes. A lot of foreign people can come to the UK and laugh at us for being paid in a currency not worth pants.


    ...And probably for agricultural and food processing exports.

    I must have missed that massive grain surplus we had last year.
    And we can cry all the way to the bank.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    John_M said:

    marke09 said:

    marke09 said:

    Tomorrow is the Longest Day ;-)

    Isn't it Tuesday, but maybe if you are for leave with all the media coverage connected to Jo Cox
    according to google this year its tomorrow - due to extra day in Feb
    Well I didn't know that and I was born on the 29th February 1944 as V bombs were flying over our house in Manchester
    Are you sure about those V1s, Big G? The first wasn't launched against the UK until June 1944 and I don't think they had the range to hit Manchester.

    Somewhere in the attic I have a map of the "landing point" of every V1 that hit the UK, after the initial barrage most were to the South and South East of London, primarily due to the fine work done by the XX committee as I recall.
    Only on PB :).
    Our collective attics hold more information than t'Internet....
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    Which makes me like Cameron (and Osborne) even more. They could have gone down the sinkhole of lowest common denominator, sectional, popular racist politics for personal gain (like Boris). But instead, they have stood up for the interests of the UK and Europe- for tolerance, inclusivity and believing in a better future for all.

    Whatever happens Thursday the pair of them deserve to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for putting the collective interest over their personal careers. Bravo
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited June 2016

    marke09 said:

    marke09 said:

    Tomorrow is the Longest Day ;-)

    Isn't it Tuesday, but maybe if you are for leave with all the media coverage connected to Jo Cox
    according to google this year its tomorrow - due to extra day in Feb
    Well I didn't know that and I was born on the 29th February 1944 as V bombs were flying over our house in Manchester
    So: though I am 72 years alive, I am a little youth of eighteen?

  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    PlatoSaid said:

    alex. said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    And tied up the last two years of his Premiership spent in interminable negotiations with the EU, whilst dealing with significant economic fallout and comprehensively failing to deliver the expectations of those who had voted on the back of his "leadership".

    Yes I can see why he didn't really want that.



    He's got nothing planned for this year at all given the Queen's Speech.
    And your point is? He's probably quite looking forward to it. Just think, instead of doing nothing he could have been spending all of his time in Brussels!
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    This was never about electoral success or party unity. This is about the establishment docking us forever to the EU, and they will do so, whatever it takes. It is really only a miracle imo that can win it for Leave now. God undoubtedly endorses Leave; he's especially against the CAP - 'Unused fields could yield plenty of food for the poor, but unjust men keep them from being farmed'. And famously in favour of the fishing industry.
    Not sure about that. He thinks they should only catch two fish to feed 5000.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    marke09 said:

    marke09 said:

    Tomorrow is the Longest Day ;-)

    Isn't it Tuesday, but maybe if you are for leave with all the media coverage connected to Jo Cox
    according to google this year its tomorrow - due to extra day in Feb
    Well I didn't know that and I was born on the 29th February 1944 as V bombs were flying over our house in Manchester
    Are you sure about those V1s, Big G? The first wasn't launched against the UK until June 1944 and I don't think they had the range to hit Manchester.

    Somewhere in the attic I have a map of the "landing point" of every V1 that hit the UK, after the initial barrage most were to the South and South East of London, primarily due to the fine work done by the XX committee as I recall.
    Yes - they reported the location of bombs that overshot with the time of impact of bombs that fellshort. The Gemans assumed their rockets were overshooting and reduced the average range still further.

    Not nice if living in the South of London, but the densley populated streets were spared.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,895
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Do we know in which order the councils will declare, and when we should start getting a picture of which way the vote is falling?

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/19/eu-referendum-result-polls-britain-europe

    For an overview. A list was publish of estimated declaration times for Indyref, so I'll have a dig about to see if there's similar for EUref.
    Thanks.
    Looking at this I suspect that the Sunderland prediction is a bit off. The Nissan factory workers (and their family & friends) should make Sunderland more or less a dead heat or 51/2% for Leave if the country is 50-50.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950



    And we can cry all the way to the bank.

    ...in a devalued currency
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tyson said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    Which makes me like Cameron (and Osborne) even more. They could have gone down the sinkhole of lowest common denominator, sectional, popular racist politics for personal gain (like Boris). But instead, they have stood up for the interests of the UK and Europe- for tolerance, inclusivity and believing in a better future for all.

    Whatever happens Thursday the pair of them deserve to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for putting the collective interest over their personal careers. Bravo
    If it is Remain, surely George will pick up the credit for his genius?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359
    DanSmith said:

    It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.

    There is nothing Leave can do about this.

    All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.

    I agree but I found it interesting that there was no lack of intensity from the QT audience tonight, felt exactly the same as previous events.
    QT audiences are largely nominated by the local political parties (to ensure balance) and are therefore biased to keen interest. It's a mistake to think they are representative of local opinion wherever they happen to be held.

    FWIW by impression is that people are genuinely sickened by the Jo Cox murder, not much bothered or positively impressed by the volume of tributes, but not linking it especially to the referendum. Which all seems fair enough to me. If Remain wins I think it will be the long-predicted oo-er-isn't-this-risky factor that punter have been expecting to show up (hence Remain's consistent lead on the markets even gainst adverse polls), and not an emotional reaction to the murder. It would be a pity if Leave effectively cried foul on that basis - whatever the result, we really need to move on, not spend time whinging about it.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    viewcode said:



    And we can cry all the way to the bank.

    ...in a devalued currency
    As our exporters rejoice.
  • Options
    NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    tyson said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    Which makes me like Cameron (and Osborne) even more. They could have gone down the sinkhole of lowest common denominator, sectional, popular racist politics for personal gain (like Boris). But instead, they have stood up for the interests of the UK and Europe- for tolerance, inclusivity and believing in a better future for all.

    Whatever happens Thursday the pair of them deserve to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for putting the collective interest over their personal careers. Bravo
    Camerond and Osbourne are purely in it for self interest. To keep wages low for Osbourne and Little and whatever large business cameron gets directorships from when he is ejected from office.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    marke09 said:

    marke09 said:

    Tomorrow is the Longest Day ;-)

    Isn't it Tuesday, but maybe if you are for leave with all the media coverage connected to Jo Cox
    according to google this year its tomorrow - due to extra day in Feb
    Well I didn't know that and I was born on the 29th February 1944 as V bombs were flying over our house in Manchester
    So: though I am 72 years alive, I am a little youth of eighteen?

    Only another 12 years to be released from his indentures.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    This was never about electoral success or party unity. This is about the establishment docking us forever to the EU, and they will do so, whatever it takes. It is really only a miracle imo that can win it for Leave now. God undoubtedly endorses Leave; he's especially against the CAP - 'Unused fields could yield plenty of food for the poor, but unjust men keep them from being farmed'. And famously in favour of the fishing industry.
    Unbelieveable that people can actually believe this rubbish. For years anti EU people have been telling us "the establishment" have been seeking every trick in the book to avoid giving "the people" a say on our relationship with the European Union. Then finally they get the vote they've been demanding for decades and apparently it was all an Establishment plot after all.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    tyson said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    Which makes me like Cameron (and Osborne) even more. They could have gone down the sinkhole of lowest common denominator, sectional, popular racist politics for personal gain (like Boris). But instead, they have stood up for the interests of the UK and Europe- for tolerance, inclusivity and believing in a better future for all.

    Apart from those who are working class or live in rural Britain.

    The people its fashionable to hate.

  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    DanSmith said:

    It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.

    There is nothing Leave can do about this.

    All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.

    I agree but I found it interesting that there was no lack of intensity from the QT audience tonight, felt exactly the same as previous events.
    QT audiences are largely nominated by the local political parties (to ensure balance) and are therefore biased to keen interest. It's a mistake to think they are representative of local opinion wherever they happen to be held.

    FWIW by impression is that people are genuinely sickened by the Jo Cox murder, not much bothered or positively impressed by the volume of tributes, but not linking it especially to the referendum. Which all seems fair enough to me. If Remain wins I think it will be the long-predicted oo-er-isn't-this-risky factor that punter have been expecting to show up (hence Remain's consistent lead on the markets even gainst adverse polls), and not an emotional reaction to the murder. It would be a pity if Leave effectively cried foul on that basis - whatever the result, we really need to move on, not spend time whinging about it.
    "Not spend time whinging about it"?

    Are you new to the Internet or something? :D
  • Options
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Lowlander said:

    Chameleon said:

    Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.

    Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.

    Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seved for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.

    *Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
    I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.

    From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof.

    Or at least that's what the reports suggest - it would be amusing if things turned out to be different to what we expect.
    I believe 60:40 to Leave is entirely possible. But I think the big issue is that most of us only hang out with people like ourselves. So, we only see people with the same voted.

    Of the 30 odd people in my office, I am the only Leaver. 29-1. Staggering. Our ESG analyst spends her weekends campaigning for Remain.

    In NW3 I've seen perhaps 20 Remain posters, and no Leave ones.



    Is that really your experience with Kent? All my family there are voting Leave, and Vote Leave posters are very much in evidence with no sign of BSE.

    I'm not in 'proper' Kent but a commuter town just outside the M25, so I expect Remain to do well here, it's a 50/50 split between Leave and Remain posters (one Leave poster was attacked with offensive graffiti, but they're wipe-clean!). I think for Kent you only need to look at the PCC elections from May - it was a straight fight between UKIP and Tory and UKIP won in the east (Men of Kent) and the Tories in the west (Kentish men). EU vote will be a similar split I think, with county's overall result Leave.
    I'm surprised you think it will be 50:50; I expect Leave will do rather better than that in Bromley, which is much more susceptible to 'metropolitan' (God forbid) influences.
    Well yes ...... unless LEAVE wins areas like Bromley, it stands no chance at all, the same applies to LB of Wandsworth where I live. But these are not typical London Boroughs.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,534
    alex. said:

    Not a joke. Chills the blood:

    1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army?
    2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
    I have no objection to European countries cooperating pan-Europe on defence. But, if so, that should only be done through multilateral agreement by national parliaments.

    To let one be established under the powers of the EU treaties to an EU that has legal identity to promote its foreign policy and support its 'power projection' is very different.

    I should have thought the difference was obvious
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    tyson said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    Which makes me like Cameron (and Osborne) even more. They could have gone down the sinkhole of lowest common denominator, sectional, popular racist politics for personal gain (like Boris). But instead, they have stood up for the interests of the UK and Europe- for tolerance, inclusivity and believing in a better future for all.

    Apart from those who are working class or live in rural Britain.

    The people its fashionable to hate.

    I'm sure all those loyal Labour voters are warming the cockles of their hearts.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128

    marke09 said:

    marke09 said:

    Tomorrow is the Longest Day ;-)

    Isn't it Tuesday, but maybe if you are for leave with all the media coverage connected to Jo Cox
    according to google this year its tomorrow - due to extra day in Feb
    Well I didn't know that and I was born on the 29th February 1944 as V bombs were flying over our house in Manchester
    Are you sure about those V1s, Big G? The first wasn't launched against the UK until June 1944 and I don't think they had the range to hit Manchester.

    Somewhere in the attic I have a map of the "landing point" of every V1 that hit the UK, after the initial barrage most were to the South and South East of London, primarily due to the fine work done by the XX committee as I recall.
    Indeed.

    I believe there were people evacuated from southern England to Manchester in the summer of 1944 for this reason.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,519
    tyson said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    Which makes me like Cameron (and Osborne) even more. They could have gone down the sinkhole of lowest common denominator, sectional, popular racist politics for personal gain (like Boris). But instead, they have stood up for the interests of the UK and Europe- for tolerance, inclusivity and believing in a better future for all.

    Whatever happens Thursday the pair of them deserve to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for putting the collective interest over their personal careers. Bravo
    Their personal careers lie aboard the Brussels gravy train. Stay in the EU, and it doesn't matter if their UK reputation is about level with bowel cancer, they will be handsomely rewarded. See Neil Kinnock. Win for Leave; all they'd get is a few more years at Westminster, and on to the internationalist shit list. There's only one selfless option there, and it isn't Remain.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    alex. said:

    Not a joke. Chills the blood:

    1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army?
    2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
    I have no objection to European countries cooperating pan-Europe on defence. But, if so, that should only be done through multilateral agreement by national parliaments.

    To let one be established under the powers of the EU treaties to an EU that has legal identity to promote its foreign policy and support its 'power projection' is very different.

    I should have thought the difference was obvious
    And question 2?
  • Options
    StarfallStarfall Posts: 78

    DanSmith said:

    It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.

    There is nothing Leave can do about this.

    All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.

    I agree but I found it interesting that there was no lack of intensity from the QT audience tonight, felt exactly the same as previous events.
    QT audiences are largely nominated by the local political parties (to ensure balance) and are therefore biased to keen interest. It's a mistake to think they are representative of local opinion wherever they happen to be held.

    FWIW by impression is that people are genuinely sickened by the Jo Cox murder, not much bothered or positively impressed by the volume of tributes, but not linking it especially to the referendum. Which all seems fair enough to me. If Remain wins I think it will be the long-predicted oo-er-isn't-this-risky factor that punter have been expecting to show up (hence Remain's consistent lead on the markets even gainst adverse polls), and not an emotional reaction to the murder. It would be a pity if Leave effectively cried foul on that basis - whatever the result, we really need to move on, not spend time whinging about it.
    That doesn't make sense. Leave were ahead in the polling average last week yet there has been swingback to Remain in the poll afterwards. As a Remain supporter I have been appalled by the lack of delay in the vote. We had an extra two days for voter registration when it was suspended for an hour. Now there is no delay in the vote despite a suspension of campaigning for three days. The way Cameron exploited the poor woman's death in his last column was beyond tasteless.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,519
    alex. said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    This was never about electoral success or party unity. This is about the establishment docking us forever to the EU, and they will do so, whatever it takes. It is really only a miracle imo that can win it for Leave now. God undoubtedly endorses Leave; he's especially against the CAP - 'Unused fields could yield plenty of food for the poor, but unjust men keep them from being farmed'. And famously in favour of the fishing industry.
    Unbelieveable that people can actually believe this rubbish. For years anti EU people have been telling us "the establishment" have been seeking every trick in the book to avoid giving "the people" a say on our relationship with the European Union. Then finally they get the vote they've been demanding for decades and apparently it was all an Establishment plot after all.
    Sorry who's been saying all this? Remainers winning the imaginary arguments in their head again.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Cameron caught lying

    BBC Reality Check
    Not quite. EU migrants can claim unemployment benefit after 3 months https://t.co/NFkPPCLQKK #bbcqt #EUref https://t.co/4rTJzHjp29
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    I notice that gove has nothing to do with the big Wembley debate, either on stage or the additional commentators role. I wonder why? He doesn't seemed to have been involved with any of the debates.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,950
    PlatoSaid said:

    viewcode said:



    And we can cry all the way to the bank.

    ...in a devalued currency
    As our exporters rejoice.
    ..in a devalued currency.
  • Options

    I notice that gove has nothing to do with the big Wembley debate, either on stage or the additional commentators role. I wonder why? He doesn't seemed to have been involved with any of the debates.

    Leave are sticking with the trio who did so well last time. Remain are bringing in a new team.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    Government borrowing figures released on Tuesday.

    Look out for the government debt as a percentage of GDP.

    In 2010 Osborne told us it would be 67% and falling now.

    Last July Osborne told us it would be 79% and falling now.

    Last month it stood at 83.3%:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x

    I wonder if Osborne will maintain his interest in emergency budgets for covering financial black holes ?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,358

    marke09 said:

    marke09 said:

    Tomorrow is the Longest Day ;-)

    Isn't it Tuesday, but maybe if you are for leave with all the media coverage connected to Jo Cox
    according to google this year its tomorrow - due to extra day in Feb
    Well I didn't know that and I was born on the 29th February 1944 as V bombs were flying over our house in Manchester
    Are you sure about those V1s, Big G? The first wasn't launched against the UK until June 1944 and I don't think they had the range to hit Manchester.

    Somewhere in the attic I have a map of the "landing point" of every V1 that hit the UK, after the initial barrage most were to the South and South East of London, primarily due to the fine work done by the XX committee as I recall.
    Yes - my sister said how she held my hand under a steel table as one stopped above the house and landed nearby killing six. It probably was the summer of 1944 but I was a bit too young to remember to be fair
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Not a joke. Chills the blood:

    1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army?
    2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
    I have no objection to European countries cooperating pan-Europe on defence. But, if so, that should only be done through multilateral agreement by national parliaments.

    To let one be established under the powers of the EU treaties to an EU that has legal identity to promote its foreign policy and support its 'power projection' is very different.

    I should have thought the difference was obvious
    And question 2?
    Question 2 is even more obvious that I can't actually believe it's been asked.

    It won't matter to us because we won't be part of it.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    alex. said:

    Not a joke. Chills the blood:

    1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army?
    2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
    I have no objection to European countries cooperating pan-Europe on defence. But, if so, that should only be done through multilateral agreement by national parliaments.

    To let one be established under the powers of the EU treaties to an EU that has legal identity to promote its foreign policy and support its 'power projection' is very different.

    I should have thought the difference was obvious
    I don't quite know why people get their knickers in a twist about a European army? It is perfectly logical to have one to deal with global issues.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,358

    marke09 said:

    marke09 said:

    Tomorrow is the Longest Day ;-)

    Isn't it Tuesday, but maybe if you are for leave with all the media coverage connected to Jo Cox
    according to google this year its tomorrow - due to extra day in Feb
    Well I didn't know that and I was born on the 29th February 1944 as V bombs were flying over our house in Manchester
    So: though I am 72 years alive, I am a little youth of eighteen?

    Yes and it was well celebrated by my family - and I am still a teenager
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    PlatoSaid said:

    tyson said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    Which makes me like Cameron (and Osborne) even more. They could have gone down the sinkhole of lowest common denominator, sectional, popular racist politics for personal gain (like Boris). But instead, they have stood up for the interests of the UK and Europe- for tolerance, inclusivity and believing in a better future for all.

    Apart from those who are working class or live in rural Britain.

    The people its fashionable to hate.

    I'm sure all those loyal Labour voters are warming the cockles of their hearts.
    Labour's strongest voters are now middle class metropolitans.

    They tend to have no liking for the working class or rural Britain either.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    PlatoSaid said:

    Cameron caught lying

    BBC Reality Check
    Not quite. EU migrants can claim unemployment benefit after 3 months https://t.co/NFkPPCLQKK #bbcqt #EUref https://t.co/4rTJzHjp29

    He misspoke I'm sure. It must be bloody difficult to think on your feet in that environment. I have not time for the guy, but he's not actually the devil incarnate. Don't forget he's got previous - mixing up deficit with debt. Happens to us all.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited June 2016

    marke09 said:

    marke09 said:

    Tomorrow is the Longest Day ;-)

    Isn't it Tuesday, but maybe if you are for leave with all the media coverage connected to Jo Cox
    according to google this year its tomorrow - due to extra day in Feb
    Well I didn't know that and I was born on the 29th February 1944 as V bombs were flying over our house in Manchester
    Are you sure about those V1s, Big G? The first wasn't launched against the UK until June 1944 and I don't think they had the range to hit Manchester.

    Somewhere in the attic I have a map of the "landing point" of every V1 that hit the UK, after the initial barrage most were to the South and South East of London, primarily due to the fine work done by the XX committee as I recall.
    Yes - my sister said how she held my hand under a steel table as one stopped above the house and landed nearby killing six. It probably was the summer of 1944 but I was a bit too young to remember to be fair
    The attack was on Xmas Eve 1944. Most of the 31 V1s fell in sparsely populated areas, but people were killed in Oldham and Didsbury.

    They were launched from Heinkels flying over the North Sea.
    http://aircrashsites.co.uk/air-raids-bomb-sites/luftwaffe-v1-attack-on-manchester-christmas-eve-1944/
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited June 2016

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Not a joke. Chills the blood:

    1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army?
    2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
    I have no objection to European countries cooperating pan-Europe on defence. But, if so, that should only be done through multilateral agreement by national parliaments.

    To let one be established under the powers of the EU treaties to an EU that has legal identity to promote its foreign policy and support its 'power projection' is very different.

    I should have thought the difference was obvious
    And question 2?
    Question 2 is even more obvious that I can't actually believe it's been asked.

    It won't matter to us because we won't be part of it.
    We won't be part of an opt-in EU army if we remain in the EU (although we may have a say in the extent of its operations).

    We won't be part of an opt-in EU army if we leave the EU.

    And of course it has the potential to matter to us. As Benedict White pointed out, the major objection to it would be any effect it has on Nato. But if we have such grounds for objection, being out of the EU wouldn't help us.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    tyson said:

    alex. said:

    Not a joke. Chills the blood:

    1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army?
    2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
    I have no objection to European countries cooperating pan-Europe on defence. But, if so, that should only be done through multilateral agreement by national parliaments.

    To let one be established under the powers of the EU treaties to an EU that has legal identity to promote its foreign policy and support its 'power projection' is very different.

    I should have thought the difference was obvious
    I don't quite know why people get their knickers in a twist about a European army? It is perfectly logical to have one to deal with global issues.
    You don't see the issue with transferring coercive power to an executive we don't elect?

    Come back when you've thought about it.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Evening Standard
    Scaremongering' David Cameron repeats claim Isis want Brexit in BBC debate https://t.co/T3znIJy9Yt https://t.co/uQwDFTpSyC
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,534
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Not a joke. Chills the blood:

    1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army?
    2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
    I have no objection to European countries cooperating pan-Europe on defence. But, if so, that should only be done through multilateral agreement by national parliaments.

    To let one be established under the powers of the EU treaties to an EU that has legal identity to promote its foreign policy and support its 'power projection' is very different.

    I should have thought the difference was obvious
    And question 2?
    If the EU wishes to establish an EU army after Britain left, that's their business.

    We could choose to cooperate with it where we agreed, and not to do so where we disagreed.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Not a joke. Chills the blood:

    1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army?
    2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
    I have no objection to European countries cooperating pan-Europe on defence. But, if so, that should only be done through multilateral agreement by national parliaments.

    To let one be established under the powers of the EU treaties to an EU that has legal identity to promote its foreign policy and support its 'power projection' is very different.

    I should have thought the difference was obvious
    And question 2?
    Question 2 is even more obvious that I can't actually believe it's been asked.

    It won't matter to us because we won't be part of it.
    We won't be part of an opt-in EU army if we remain in the EU (although we may have a say in the extent of its operations).

    We won't be part of an opt-in EU army if we leave the EU.
    Opt in.

    Yeah right.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2016
    tyson said:

    alex. said:

    Not a joke. Chills the blood:

    1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army?
    2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
    I have no objection to European countries cooperating pan-Europe on defence. But, if so, that should only be done through multilateral agreement by national parliaments.

    To let one be established under the powers of the EU treaties to an EU that has legal identity to promote its foreign policy and support its 'power projection' is very different.

    I should have thought the difference was obvious
    I don't quite know why people get their knickers in a twist about a European army? It is perfectly logical to have one to deal with global issues.
    I don't give two hoots whether there's an EU army or not. However, to the rather paranoid, this is another symbol that the EU considers itself a unitary state. It wants a unitary foreign policy, we all know that war is ultima ratio regnum, hence people take alarm.

    The only issue for me is its command and control. If it's within NATO structures, no shits given. Outside, the Yanks will go very quietly ballistic.

    *edited after arrest by the Apostrophe Police*
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,534

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Not a joke. Chills the blood:

    1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army?
    2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
    I have no objection to European countries cooperating pan-Europe on defence. But, if so, that should only be done through multilateral agreement by national parliaments.

    To let one be established under the powers of the EU treaties to an EU that has legal identity to promote its foreign policy and support its 'power projection' is very different.

    I should have thought the difference was obvious
    And question 2?
    Question 2 is even more obvious that I can't actually believe it's been asked.

    It won't matter to us because we won't be part of it.
    We won't be part of an opt-in EU army if we remain in the EU (although we may have a say in the extent of its operations).

    We won't be part of an opt-in EU army if we leave the EU.
    Opt in.

    Yeah right.
    They fall for it every time.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,534
    NEW THREAD
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,519
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Not a joke. Chills the blood:

    1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army?
    2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
    I have no objection to European countries cooperating pan-Europe on defence. But, if so, that should only be done through multilateral agreement by national parliaments.

    To let one be established under the powers of the EU treaties to an EU that has legal identity to promote its foreign policy and support its 'power projection' is very different.

    I should have thought the difference was obvious
    And question 2?
    Question 2 is even more obvious that I can't actually believe it's been asked.

    It won't matter to us because we won't be part of it.
    We won't be part of an opt-in EU army if we remain in the EU (although we may have a say in the extent of its operations).

    We won't be part of an opt-in EU army if we leave the EU.

    And of course it has the potential to matter to us. As Benedict White pointed out, the major objection to it would be any effect it has on Nato. But if we have such grounds for objection, being out of the EU wouldn't help us.
    Yet there were already plans to 'share' an aircraft carrier with the French. I mean sorry wtf? What is that if it's not military procurement on the basis of an amalgamation of forces in the medium term?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,358
    RodCrosby said:

    marke09 said:

    marke09 said:

    Tomorrow is the Longest Day ;-)

    Isn't it Tuesday, but maybe if you are for leave with all the media coverage connected to Jo Cox
    according to google this year its tomorrow - due to extra day in Feb
    Well I didn't know that and I was born on the 29th February 1944 as V bombs were flying over our house in Manchester
    Are you sure about those V1s, Big G? The first wasn't launched against the UK until June 1944 and I don't think they had the range to hit Manchester.

    Somewhere in the attic I have a map of the "landing point" of every V1 that hit the UK, after the initial barrage most were to the South and South East of London, primarily due to the fine work done by the XX committee as I recall.
    Yes - my sister said how she held my hand under a steel table as one stopped above the house and landed nearby killing six. It probably was the summer of 1944 but I was a bit too young to remember to be fair
    The attack was on Xmas Eve 1944. Most of the 31 V1s fell in sparsely populated areas, but people were killed in Oldham and Didsbury.

    They were launched from Heinkels flying over the North Sea.
    http://aircrashsites.co.uk/air-raids-bomb-sites/luftwaffe-v1-attack-on-manchester-christmas-eve-1944/
    Thanks for that - we were living in Whitefield and I think it landed in Bolton but not sure
  • Options
    GoupillonGoupillon Posts: 79
    Lets get the nett cost of being in the EU (£140m per week) into perspective - this cost is about £2 a week for the each of the approx 70 million of us living in the UK. I do not buy the Sun, Express or Daily Mail but I am told the cost per week for taking any of these "admirable organs" is considerably more than this. So why are some people so upset about the amount of money we are currently paying to the EU? I wonder how many new hospitals could be built with the amount of money that people could save if they stopped buying these newspapers?
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,779
    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    alex. said:

    Not a joke. Chills the blood:

    1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army?
    2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
    I have no objection to European countries cooperating pan-Europe on defence. But, if so, that should only be done through multilateral agreement by national parliaments.

    To let one be established under the powers of the EU treaties to an EU that has legal identity to promote its foreign policy and support its 'power projection' is very different.

    I should have thought the difference was obvious
    And question 2?
    Question 2 is even more obvious that I can't actually believe it's been asked.

    It won't matter to us because we won't be part of it.
    We won't be part of an opt-in EU army if we remain in the EU (although we may have a say in the extent of its operations).

    We won't be part of an opt-in EU army if we leave the EU.

    And of course it has the potential to matter to us. As Benedict White pointed out, the major objection to it would be any effect it has on Nato. But if we have such grounds for objection, being out of the EU wouldn't help us.
    I am going to muddy the waters a bit and suggest that Britain might decide to opt in if it remains in the EU on the basis that it is better to be inside the tent than outside it.

    I assume Britain's real objection to an EU army is that cuts across its old diplomatic objective: "Keep the Americans in, the Russians out and the Germans down". So they don't want an EU army that is separate from NATO. But the Germans are pushing for it with strong American support. So it's almost certainly going to happen. Britain could set the parameters and lead from within.

    If we leave the EU, it will go ahead without us. NATO will be the US, the EU and some bits and pieces. We would be one of the bits and pieces.

    This is another example in the EU referendum debate where rhetoric gets in the way of discussing the real issues. Immigration is another. Cameron was back on Question Time defending his sub 100 000 immigrants "aspiration". So then someone says that leaving the EU will sort that out. No it won't. No-one is honest about why we do things
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,994
    tyson said:

    alex. said:

    Not a joke. Chills the blood:

    1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army?
    2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
    I have no objection to European countries cooperating pan-Europe on defence. But, if so, that should only be done through multilateral agreement by national parliaments.

    To let one be established under the powers of the EU treaties to an EU that has legal identity to promote its foreign policy and support its 'power projection' is very different.

    I should have thought the difference was obvious
    I don't quite know why people get their knickers in a twist about a European army? It is perfectly logical to have one to deal with global issues.
    And to put down internal dissent. Something the Chinese are past masters at.
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    John_M said:

    tyson said:

    alex. said:

    Not a joke. Chills the blood:

    1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army?
    2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
    I have no objection to European countries cooperating pan-Europe on defence. But, if so, that should only be done through multilateral agreement by national parliaments.

    To let one be established under the powers of the EU treaties to an EU that has legal identity to promote its foreign policy and support its 'power projection' is very different.

    I should have thought the difference was obvious
    I don't quite know why people get their knickers in a twist about a European army? It is perfectly logical to have one to deal with global issues.
    I don't give two hoots whether there's an EU army or not. However, to the rather paranoid, this is another symbol that the EU considers itself a unitary state. It wants a unitary foreign policy, we all know that war is ultima ratio regnum, hence people take alarm.

    The only issue for me is its command and control. If it's within NATO structures, no shits given. Outside, the Yanks will go very quietly ballistic.

    *edited after arrest by the Apostrophe Police*
    That clip posted above was rather thought-provoking. In the same way as the courts in any member country are now obliged to put EU laws above their own parliament's legislation, the EU army could, conceivably, end up enforcing EU policy in a member state that disagrees.
  • Options
    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    PlatoSaid said:

    alex. said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.

    It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
    And tied up the last two years of his Premiership spent in interminable negotiations with the EU, whilst dealing with significant economic fallout and comprehensively failing to deliver the expectations of those who had voted on the back of his "leadership".

    Yes I can see why he didn't really want that.



    He's got nothing planned for this year at all given the Queen's Speech.
    Mr Portillo, I presume?
  • Options
    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    tyson said:

    alex. said:

    Not a joke. Chills the blood:

    1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army?
    2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
    I have no objection to European countries cooperating pan-Europe on defence. But, if so, that should only be done through multilateral agreement by national parliaments.

    To let one be established under the powers of the EU treaties to an EU that has legal identity to promote its foreign policy and support its 'power projection' is very different.

    I should have thought the difference was obvious
    I don't quite know why people get their knickers in a twist about a European army? It is perfectly logical to have one to deal with global issues.
    It isn't to deal with global issues but as juncker puts it:

    "To deal with threats to peace in member states or neighbouring countries"

    I wonder what he means by that. What ever it is, I do not like it.
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