Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Whoever takes over from Cameron will suffer if Osborne isn't on their team.
As general point again. I do understand why this is such a bitter referendum campaign.
We are looking at this as a normal political war between established armies. It is not. This is a civil war where the people you hitherto regarded as your closest friends and allies turn out to be on the other side. Not only does this foster an atmosphere of betrayal but it also means that often you may know far more about your opponents and they know more about you than would normally be the case. It provides weapons that are not usually available and most of us (including myself) have little compunction about using them.
Those of us who have chosen opposing sides in this fight and have chosen to actually take the fight to the enemy do so because it is something that is fundamental to our view of the country, our nationality and our beliefs (I am applying that to both sides not just one) You do not just have a good argument, shake hands and walk away.
Civil wars are always the most divisive and take the longest time to recover from.
This is why things cannot and will not be the same afterwards.
That's all true, except possibly the 'longest to recover from' aspect - electoral annihilations can have consequences that last decades; it's quite possible that the Tories could win the next election.
However, whatever else, this referendum has created some grudges that will last so long, Scotland will probably have qualified for a World Cup before they're forgotten.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Whoever takes over from Cameron will suffer if Osborne isn't on their team.
TBH I think that it's more to do with fear of the unknown than any love for GO/DC.
So to summarise. A REMAIN MP goes on a boat in the Thames to protest and is sprayed with water by LEAVE supporters. Some time later she is murdered by a nutter who cried "Britain First" in front of eyewitnesses (some of whom have still not recanted despite Breitbart pressure) and who delivered a rant in court. And the current topic under discussion on PB is...
...whether she should be prosecuted for keeping her kids from school.
OK. You guys are weird
It's quite bizarre and they're going on and on and on - the level of sheer nastiness reads like a Britain First blog!
What upsets me is the nastiness aimed at Jo Cox herself and her family, Lowlander, and his merry band of pbCom Cheerleaders (I don't need to name names again) last night for instance. I am haunted by images of that poor woman brutally killed....how could anyone in their right mind vilify her, or denigrate her poor family?
I am less bothered by attacks on those public figures who seek to use this situation for their political ends. David Cameron brought up the death of his child during the TV debates last year. People may well remember that I have mentioned this on a number of occasions. It really bothered me at the time....but what I think what bothered me most was that it was really quite effective, and David Cameron can carry this kind of public show of emotion extremely well.
If David Cameron can publicly talk about the death of his child during a TV debate during an election campaign, then of course he will talk about the murder of Jo Cox in the run up to the referendum. The main difference now is that he is on my side and I hope he does it. Like Tony Blair, Cameron has a unique skill to connect emotionally which is political gold dust. I hope he uses it to it's full extent.
FWIW- I think the vote was slipping away from leave last week anyway after Osborne's fine show on Wednesday. I sincerely hope the dynamics of the Jo Cox fallout will give remain a healthy win, and enable Cameron to show the political exit door to the likes of Priti Patel.
I think it's a very good bet we will get another referendum in the event of LEAVE. However, I can't for the life of me see it getting done before June 2017, that's far too fast.
I know the Remain side has been angered about the Turkey thing, but Cameron has chosen to not shut it down for reasons only he knows.
Turkey has the EU (and NATO) over a barrel. The West needs Turkey and they know this, if their EU accession path is blocked, they will simply open their borders and then go talk to Putin.
Cameron has offered three massive hostages to fortune so far - no EU Army, no Turkey and no £350m.
Awkward. Especially as the plans for the EU army will be unveiled on Friday 24th June.
He only has to get to June 24th with a Remain win - after that Leave can scream and shout as much as they can - but they ain't getting the chance of another one.
Cameron has offered three massive hostages to fortune so far - no EU Army, no Turkey and no £350m.
Awkward. Especially as the plans for the EU army will be unveiled on Friday 24th June.
Looking at the current state of EU finances I think the biggest hostage to fortune is the £350 million claim. Whilst the Leave claim was wrong because of the rebate, the amount the EU needs going forward is easily going to increase our contributions up to that amount within a year or two.
I think it's a very good bet we will get another referendum in the event of LEAVE. However, I can't for the life of me see it getting done before June 2017, that's far too fast.
I know the Remain side has been angered about the Turkey thing, but Cameron has chosen to not shut it down for reasons only he knows.
Turkey has the EU (and NATO) over a barrel. The West needs Turkey and they know this, if their EU accession path is blocked, they will simply open their borders and then go talk to Putin.
They will not talk to Putin. At all. No chance. Remember Crimea? (Last war Mark Senior fought it... )
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I know the Remain side has been angered about the Turkey thing, but Cameron has chosen to not shut it down for reasons only he knows.
Turkey has the EU (and NATO) over a barrel. The West needs Turkey and they know this, if their EU accession path is blocked, they will simply open their borders and then go talk to Putin.
Turkey's accession path is blocked by their own unwillingness to meet the application criteria. Until they make progress on this there is nothing to discuss. The last thing the Erdogan government wants is to implement the kind of reforms that would be needed to make them eligible to join.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
Cameron has offered three massive hostages to fortune so far - no EU Army, no Turkey and no £350m.
Awkward. Especially as the plans for the EU army will be unveiled on Friday 24th June.
He only has to get to June 24th with a Remain win - after that Leave can scream and shout as much as they can - but they ain't getting the chance of another one.
But they will get hammered at GE2020 and probably, as with the ERM, it is the Conservative party that gets the blame and Labour just slip into power since they were only a side show to this whole referendum.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I think it's a very good bet we will get another referendum in the event of LEAVE. However, I can't for the life of me see it getting done before June 2017, that's far too fast.
Why?
I can see some reasons, the EU army for one...
Why would a mythical "EU army" result in another post Leave referendum?
Good evening. Long time lurker speaking up for the 1st time (well I have posted a couple of times previously in the last ten years, so not quite true).
I've been thinking over the last few hours, whether the (perceived?) over-coverage of Jo Cox's death will have a detrimental effect on the Remain campaign? Similar to the way that 'Project Fear' and their repeated warnings have apparently made some voters lean towards leave?
The death of an MP in such a manner is rare, however it is not without precedent. Thinking about the reaction to the Brighton hotel bombing and the murder of Airey Neave, I have an impression there was far less publicised grief than there is today. Maybe this is related to 24 hours news channels?
Over-coverage of her murder so close to the referendum, while making repeated assertions of 'what Jo believed' may make people believe her murder is being exploited for political reasons and out of disgust, vote leave or not vote all (presuming that they were going to vote remain)
Welcome James.
In the past hour I have heard Stephen Kinnock politicising Jo Cox's death, and reports of Cameron politicising her death.
Desperate stuff from Remain. They should be ashamed.
I'd have a little more sympathy for Leave if I hadn't read posts on here on the day of her murder discussing how it shouldn't be allowed to change the narrative of the referendum. Then the day after she died leavers whinging about the cessation in campaigning and the media covering her death too much for their tastes. So before you chucking stones in that particular glasshouse stop and think how desperate that was. Funny because I don't recall many Leavers objecting to the coverage of Lee Rigsby being murdered or the Paris or Brussels atrocities. Do you?
They weren't days before a major, one-off referendum.
Irrelevant. It is a political story. She was probably killed because of her stance on the referendum. Whether you like it or not it's going to be covered right up to Thursday and beyond, exactly as it would be if a Leaver MP had been murdered.
I know the Remain side has been angered about the Turkey thing, but Cameron has chosen to not shut it down for reasons only he knows.
Turkey has the EU (and NATO) over a barrel. The West needs Turkey and they know this, if their EU accession path is blocked, they will simply open their borders and then go talk to Putin.
Turkey's accession path is blocked by their own unwillingness to meet the application criteria. Until they make progress on this there is nothing to discuss. The last thing the Erdogan government wants is to implement the kind of reforms that would be needed to make them eligible to join.
All granted. However the UK will not veto Turkey joining. With regret the PM is not prepared to address this in an honest way (Like I said about the visa issue the other day) and so looks shifty.
Verdict on Cameron He started off well but got hammered over Past statements, Immigration, Deals with the EU, Wages, Public Services etc. Just the usual things that he struggles to answer. A large group of the public do not trust him and are very angry with him.
I know the Remain side has been angered about the Turkey thing, but Cameron has chosen to not shut it down for reasons only he knows.
Turkey has the EU (and NATO) over a barrel. The West needs Turkey and they know this, if their EU accession path is blocked, they will simply open their borders and then go talk to Putin.
Turkey's accession path is blocked by their own unwillingness to meet the application criteria. Until they make progress on this there is nothing to discuss. The last thing the Erdogan government wants is to implement the kind of reforms that would be needed to make them eligible to join.
All granted. However the UK will not veto Turkey joining. With regret the PM is not prepared to address this in an honest way (Like I said about the visa issue the other day) and so looks shifty.
One can't claim that Turkey won't join within 30yrs - and then be caught out paying £1bn to help them, and have a team in the UK Embassy helping it to happen - with statements on their own website.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
Haha, unfortunately I'm well aware. Yeah, I remember a few months ago when a group of 1yr uni students started discussing the referendum and in the end they ll realised that they were arguing for the same side (leave). However I don't know if they've actually followed through with the cross in the box.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
I know the Remain side has been angered about the Turkey thing, but Cameron has chosen to not shut it down for reasons only he knows.
Turkey has the EU (and NATO) over a barrel. The West needs Turkey and they know this, if their EU accession path is blocked, they will simply open their borders and then go talk to Putin.
Turkey's accession path is blocked by their own unwillingness to meet the application criteria. Until they make progress on this there is nothing to discuss. The last thing the Erdogan government wants is to implement the kind of reforms that would be needed to make them eligible to join.
All granted. However the UK will not veto Turkey joining. With regret the PM is not prepared to address this in an honest way (Like I said about the visa issue the other day) and so looks shifty.
I don't see the dishonesty in saying that the issue won't come up while he is in power. It shows a sense of propriety that Cameron is not prepared to damage the diplomatic position of the UK for the sake of scoring a cost-free point in a referendum campaign.
I think it's a very good bet we will get another referendum in the event of LEAVE. However, I can't for the life of me see it getting done before June 2017, that's far too fast.
Why?
I can see some reasons, the EU army for one...
Why would a mythical "EU army" result in another post Leave referendum?
Because we are being promised that there will not be one on any account. If one were to roll up before 2020, I think that could cause trouble. Not enough on its own but other things may be in the pipeline.
Sure David Cameron is pleased that his campaign has now run it's course. The audience were quite hostile and it was fairly obvious it was coming from a very committed leave section. He did get quite a bit of support and it will probably have little effect on the rest of the campaign
Cameron has offered three massive hostages to fortune so far - no EU Army, no Turkey and no £350m.
The EU army is opt in. Britain can't be forced to join it. The only question is whether there should be an EU army at all without British participation. If we leave it goes by default; if we stay we may shape the discussion somewhat
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
Students for leave? All of them? Interesting.
Staggered by Hurst Lama anecdote, one of my children says it is 3:1 for REMAIN among her student friends from up north but she is voting whilst most of them probably cannot/will not vote.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
I pray to God that you're right, and there is a chance that you are.
I think it's a very good bet we will get another referendum in the event of LEAVE. However, I can't for the life of me see it getting done before June 2017, that's far too fast.
Why?
I can see some reasons, the EU army for one...
Why would a mythical "EU army" result in another post Leave referendum?
Because we are being promised that there will not be one on any account. If one were to roll up before 2020, I think that could cause trouble. Not enough on its own but other things may be in the pipeline.
I don't think you've appreciated the point that the original comment related to a post LEAVE referendum.
Sure David Cameron is pleased that his campaign has now run it's course. The audience were quite hostile and it was fairly obvious it was coming from a very committed leave section. He did get quite a bit of support and it will probably have little effect on the rest of the campaign
I agree probably not much effect, but it does indicate that there is a sizable group highly motivated to vote LEAVE.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
I know the Remain side has been angered about the Turkey thing, but Cameron has chosen to not shut it down for reasons only he knows.
Turkey has the EU (and NATO) over a barrel. The West needs Turkey and they know this, if their EU accession path is blocked, they will simply open their borders and then go talk to Putin.
Turkey's accession path is blocked by their own unwillingness to meet the application criteria. Until they make progress on this there is nothing to discuss. The last thing the Erdogan government wants is to implement the kind of reforms that would be needed to make them eligible to join.
All granted. However the UK will not veto Turkey joining. With regret the PM is not prepared to address this in an honest way (Like I said about the visa issue the other day) and so looks shifty.
I don't see the dishonesty in saying that the issue won't come up while he is in power. It shows a sense of propriety that Cameron is not prepared to damage the diplomatic position of the UK for the sake of scoring a cost-free point in a referendum campaign.
I don't dispute your point, however it still looks shifty. Not to me, I know exactly what game he is playing, and I would be playing it too, but I would hope with a little more honesty.
Now, if he had some concession on free movement, he could have said, yes, of course we want Turkey in etc etc etc. Alas he got nothing there.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
Students for leave? All of them? Interesting.
Staggered by Hurst Lama anecdote, one of my children says it is 3:1 for REMAIN among her student friends from up north but she is voting whilst most of them probably cannot/will not vote.
I've come across a similar discussion once, with the whole student group for leave. However I suspect that I remember it because it is an exception, not the rule.
I know the Remain side has been angered about the Turkey thing, but Cameron has chosen to not shut it down for reasons only he knows.
Very difficult for the PM to shoot from the hip like Gove can. If he said he would veto Turkey it would be world news. It would be a huge offense to one of the most populous Nato countries who are about 7 years into a 30 year quest to join.
As it happens in 30 years Greece will veto them or maybe France but you can't expect a British Prime Minister to dash their hopes for internal political reasons
I think it's a very good bet we will get another referendum in the event of LEAVE. However, I can't for the life of me see it getting done before June 2017, that's far too fast.
Mr Code, if Remain win on Thursday we will never be given another chance to vote. The powers that be will have had an enormous fright and they will not want to go through that again.
However, if Leave win I think it entirely possible that will be asked to reconsider after a fairly rapid stitch up of a deal that appears to , or maybe even will, to address the factors that drove the first result. It has happened elsewhere in the past.
So, you might want to think of it as a modern version of Pascal's Wager, the optimal result can only be achieved by voting to Leave.
Got to say I tend not to be persuaded by such things either way.
Me neither - we're politically very savvy observers of Kremlinology re this stuff. If I wasn't paying much attention, it came across as pretty hostile to Cameron with laughter and tutting.
If Farage had that reception, we'd be saying he was mauled.
Cameron has offered three massive hostages to fortune so far - no EU Army, no Turkey and no £350m.
The EU army is opt in. Britain can't be forced to join it. The only question is whether there should be an EU army at all without British participation. If we leave it goes by default; if we stay we may shape the discussion somewhat
Quite - this is one of these typical red herrings being put forward by the Leave side.
"An EU army", how awful!
Voluntary pooling of military resources by EU countries on an opt-in basis, only established within existing EU structures, who really has a serious issue with that? Isn't there already some sort of rapid reaction force?
Sure David Cameron is pleased that his campaign has now run it's course. The audience were quite hostile and it was fairly obvious it was coming from a very committed leave section. He did get quite a bit of support and it will probably have little effect on the rest of the campaign
I agree probably not much effect, but it does indicate that there is a sizable group highly motivated to vote LEAVE.
I have absolutely no doubt about how motivated leave are but the result will depend on whether they can persuade the non decided to their side
I think it's a very good bet we will get another referendum in the event of LEAVE. However, I can't for the life of me see it getting done before June 2017, that's far too fast.
Why?
I can see some reasons, the EU army for one...
Why would a mythical "EU army" result in another post Leave referendum?
Because we are being promised that there will not be one on any account. If one were to roll up before 2020, I think that could cause trouble. Not enough on its own but other things may be in the pipeline.
I don't think you've appreciated the point that the original comment related to a post LEAVE referendum.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
I pray to God that you're right, and there is a chance that you are.
I thought you were for Remain! Great to discover another Brexiteer
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
Remain also have middle class leftists and Conservative 'always obey orders' types and those who hate the working class.
There's a general middle/working class split and also a general city/non-city split.
Or at least that's what the reports suggest - it would be amusing if things turned out to be different to what we expect.
I have made a point of not commenting on the politics or otherwise of the Cox murder as I find it distasteful from all sides.
But just as a general point, lots of people take their kids on protests when they don't expect there to be trouble. Just look at the Countryside Rally in London a decade or so ago or lots of other protests that have been held in London over the years. The only ones you would tend to avoid would be those where there was likely to be trouble on account of the age of the main body of protestors - students etc.
Taking kids out on a boat on the Thames if they are properly equipped and when protesting against fishermen - who I would contend would be the very last people to put anyone at risk on the water - seems like a very safe bet to me and certainly not something to be criticised.
At the very least in hindsight the kids got an exciting day out on a boat with their Mum and Dad as a happy memory before everything changed forever.
I would never criticise anyone - even with foresight or hindsight for that.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
I have to say I would find it more than challenging to face such hostile audiences as we seem to have acquired recently. There is so much anger it is sad really
Cameron has offered three massive hostages to fortune so far - no EU Army, no Turkey and no £350m.
The EU army is opt in. Britain can't be forced to join it. The only question is whether there should be an EU army at all without British participation. If we leave it goes by default; if we stay we may shape the discussion somewhat
Quite - this is one of these typical red herrings being put forward by the Leave side.
"An EU army", how awful!
Voluntary pooling of military resources by EU countries on an opt-in basis, only established within existing EU structures, who really has a serious issue with that? Isn't there already some sort of rapid reaction force?
Actually I would not be happy because it distracts from NATO cooperation but there is nothing we can do about it in or out of the EU if that is the case.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
I pray to God that you're right, and there is a chance that you are.
I thought you were for Remain! Great to discover another Brexiteer
Haha, nope. It may be because I'm being pessimistic so that I'm either right or victorious.
Cameron has offered three massive hostages to fortune so far - no EU Army, no Turkey and no £350m.
Awkward. Especially as the plans for the EU army will be unveiled on Friday 24th June.
Looking at the current state of EU finances I think the biggest hostage to fortune is the £350 million claim. Whilst the Leave claim was wrong because of the rebate, the amount the EU needs going forward is easily going to increase our contributions up to that amount within a year or two.
Don't you think it might be a problem for Leave if they win to explain what happened to the £350 million a week they promised to spend on the NHS?
I think I said something similar a few weeks ago. A narrow Leave win prompts a sudden new deal, and we get offered a second opportunity to vote the 'right' way.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
I have always thought it would come down to the working class voters. 1. Will they vote 2. WHo will they vote for. I cannot see them voting for REMAIN, but will their turnout be so low that the ABs and under 25s turn the overall Labour vote into a 2:1 ratio? If the overall Labour vote is just 60:40 for REMAIN that will probably be enough for LEAVE to win.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
Well, the polls tell us there are ~50% of the population who are inclined to Remain. As I've said before, I'd never impugn someone voting Remain for worries about the economy - kids before country.
Following up on Richard T.'s comments, it's civil war precisely because the right answer is unfathomable. We can speculate, model, wonder, plan etc all we like. It's a really, really tough choice, not least because a lot of the motivations on both sides are intangibles - culture, values and so on.
I'm settled on Leave, but I do hope I have the humility to realise that I might be completely wrong. I'm certainly not here to try and convert anyone. It's just some (mostly) good company as we ride off into the wild blue yonder, whether it's stay or go.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
Students for leave? All of them? Interesting.
Staggered by Hurst Lama anecdote, one of my children says it is 3:1 for REMAIN among her student friends from up north but she is voting whilst most of them probably cannot/will not vote.
There does seem to be a vocal left case for Leave. Perhaps that includes the student demo NUS folk?
Continuing with my lone interest in the tourism stats.
April was yet another dreadful month for the UK tourism balance with expenditure abroad by UK visitors up no less than 19% on last year whilst expenditure in the UK by foreign tourists was 1% down.
So far in 2016 expenditure overseas is 12% up and earnings from overseas are 3% down.
The UK tourism deficit is fast heading to £20bn a year.
It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.
There is nothing Leave can do about this.
All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
A few of us did feel the same about the general election and couldn't match Ed's toxic personal ratings with Labour's overall polling position...
I have to say I would find it more than challenging to face such hostile audiences as we seem to have acquired recently. There is so much anger it is sad really
People feel they are being conned. They don't like it.
I have to say I would find it more than challenging to face such hostile audiences as we seem to have acquired recently. There is so much anger it is sad really
Its because the Conservatives increasingly have nothing to offer but frightening people and voters are starting to resent it. The two refererendums they had nothing to offer but fear, and 2020 its fear of Corbyn,
They will fall flat on their face as folks get terminally pissed off with it,
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
Remain also have middle class leftists and Conservative 'always obey orders' types and those who hate the working class.
There's a general middle/working class split and also a general city/non-city split.
Or at least that's what the reports suggest - it would be amusing if things turned out to be different to what we expect.
I believe 60:40 to Leave is entirely possible. But I think the big issue is that most of us only hang out with people like ourselves. So, we only see people with the same voted.
Of the 30 odd people in my office, I am the only Leaver. 29-1. Staggering. Our ESG analyst spends her weekends campaigning for Remain.
In NW3 I've seen perhaps 20 Remain posters, and no Leave ones.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
Students for leave? All of them? Interesting.
Staggered by Hurst Lama anecdote, one of my children says it is 3:1 for REMAIN among her student friends from up north but she is voting whilst most of them probably cannot/will not vote.
There does seem to be a vocal left case for Leave. Perhaps that includes the student demo NUS folk?
There's a lot of good materiel up on labourleave.org for those of a lefty persuasion, worth reading if you have time.
I think I said something similar a few weeks ago. A narrow Leave win prompts a sudden new deal, and we get offered a second opportunity to vote the 'right' way.
But how long would it be before others started voting out and got their own new deal? The possibilities are endless.
I know the Remain side has been angered about the Turkey thing, but Cameron has chosen to not shut it down for reasons only he knows.
Very difficult for the PM to shoot from the hip like Gove can. If he said he would veto Turkey it would be world news. It would be a huge offense to one of the most populous Nato countries who are about 7 years into a 30 year quest to join.
As it happens in 30 years Greece will veto them or maybe France but you can't expect a British Prime Minister to dash their hopes for internal political reasons
We certainly should expect our own PM to promise to veto it - the idea of Turkey in the EU is neither popular nor geo-strategically sensible.
I am amazed he hasn't promised to veto it. Not usually worried about u turns....
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
Students for leave? All of them? Interesting.
Staggered by Hurst Lama anecdote, one of my children says it is 3:1 for REMAIN among her student friends from up north but she is voting whilst most of them probably cannot/will not vote.
There does seem to be a vocal left case for Leave. Perhaps that includes the student demo NUS folk?
Going by the family Corbynite, some of his university pals believe in a Lexit, many are Remains but cannot/will not vote (from EU or university vacation, away travelling). Most of his friends that didn't go to university seem to be Leave leaning but again, not certain to vote.
Sure David Cameron is pleased that his campaign has now run it's course. The audience were quite hostile and it was fairly obvious it was coming from a very committed leave section. He did get quite a bit of support and it will probably have little effect on the rest of the campaign
I agree probably not much effect, but it does indicate that there is a sizable group highly motivated to vote LEAVE.
I have absolutely no doubt about how motivated leave are but the result will depend on whether they can persuade the non decided to their side
Yes. But I see 40% as the minimum for LEAVE. Half of that from UKIP.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
A few of us did feel the same about the general election and couldn't match Ed's toxic personal ratings with Labour's overall polling position...
FWIW up until the murder I was getting a kind of deja vu wrt anecdata and personal ratings and last year. However the crucial differences this time are that the economic case is on the other side and a black swan may have swung things further.
Cameron has offered three massive hostages to fortune so far - no EU Army, no Turkey and no £350m.
Awkward. Especially as the plans for the EU army will be unveiled on Friday 24th June.
Looking at the current state of EU finances I think the biggest hostage to fortune is the £350 million claim. Whilst the Leave claim was wrong because of the rebate, the amount the EU needs going forward is easily going to increase our contributions up to that amount within a year or two.
Don't you think it might be a problem for Leave if they win to explain what happened to the £350 million a week they promised to spend on the NHS?
Comments
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
However, whatever else, this referendum has created some grudges that will last so long, Scotland will probably have qualified for a World Cup before they're forgotten.
I am less bothered by attacks on those public figures who seek to use this situation for their political ends. David Cameron brought up the death of his child during the TV debates last year. People may well remember that I have mentioned this on a number of occasions. It really bothered me at the time....but what I think what bothered me most was that it was really quite effective, and David Cameron can carry this kind of public show of emotion extremely well.
If David Cameron can publicly talk about the death of his child during a TV debate during an election campaign, then of course he will talk about the murder of Jo Cox in the run up to the referendum. The main difference now is that he is on my side and I hope he does it. Like Tony Blair, Cameron has a unique skill to connect emotionally which is political gold dust. I hope he uses it to it's full extent.
FWIW- I think the vote was slipping away from leave last week anyway after Osborne's fine show on Wednesday. I sincerely hope the dynamics of the Jo Cox fallout will give remain a healthy win, and enable Cameron to show the political exit door to the likes of Priti Patel.
I think it's a very good bet we will get another referendum in the event of LEAVE. However, I can't for the life of me see it getting done before June 2017, that's far too fast.
He's starting to age quickly.
At that stage it will be too late. Leavers can be openly trolled with impunity.
But UKIP has given somewhere for the disaffected and angry to go.
I can see some reasons, the EU army for one...
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
Bit like the race, only without the betting.
He started off well but got hammered over Past statements, Immigration, Deals with the EU, Wages, Public Services etc. Just the usual things that he struggles to answer. A large group of the public do not trust him and are very angry with him.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
Got to say I tend not to be persuaded by such things either way.
Now, if he had some concession on free movement, he could have said, yes, of course we want Turkey in etc etc etc. Alas he got nothing there.
As it happens in 30 years Greece will veto them or maybe France but you can't expect a British Prime Minister to dash their hopes for internal political reasons
However, if Leave win I think it entirely possible that will be asked to reconsider after a fairly rapid stitch up of a deal that appears to , or maybe even will, to address the factors that drove the first result. It has happened elsewhere in the past.
So, you might want to think of it as a modern version of Pascal's Wager, the optimal result can only be achieved by voting to Leave.
If Farage had that reception, we'd be saying he was mauled.
"An EU army", how awful!
Voluntary pooling of military resources by EU countries on an opt-in basis, only established within existing EU structures, who really has a serious issue with that? Isn't there already some sort of rapid reaction force?
If we have left we have left.
There's a general middle/working class split and also a general city/non-city split.
Or at least that's what the reports suggest - it would be amusing if things turned out to be different to what we expect.
I think I said something similar a few weeks ago. A narrow Leave win prompts a sudden new deal, and we get offered a second opportunity to vote the 'right' way.
1. Will they vote
2. WHo will they vote for.
I cannot see them voting for REMAIN, but will their turnout be so low that the ABs and under 25s turn the overall Labour vote into a 2:1 ratio? If the overall Labour vote is just 60:40 for REMAIN that will probably be enough for LEAVE to win.
Following up on Richard T.'s comments, it's civil war precisely because the right answer is unfathomable. We can speculate, model, wonder, plan etc all we like. It's a really, really tough choice, not least because a lot of the motivations on both sides are intangibles - culture, values and so on.
I'm settled on Leave, but I do hope I have the humility to realise that I might be completely wrong. I'm certainly not here to try and convert anyone. It's just some (mostly) good company as we ride off into the wild blue yonder, whether it's stay or go.
April was yet another dreadful month for the UK tourism balance with expenditure abroad by UK visitors up no less than 19% on last year whilst expenditure in the UK by foreign tourists was 1% down.
So far in 2016 expenditure overseas is 12% up and earnings from overseas are 3% down.
The UK tourism deficit is fast heading to £20bn a year.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/leisureandtourism/bulletins/overseastravelandtourism/provisionalresultsforapril2016
There is nothing Leave can do about this.
All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.
They will fall flat on their face as folks get terminally pissed off with it,
Of the 30 odd people in my office, I am the only Leaver. 29-1. Staggering. Our ESG analyst spends her weekends campaigning for Remain.
In NW3 I've seen perhaps 20 Remain posters, and no Leave ones.
I am amazed he hasn't promised to veto it. Not usually worried about u turns....