My inexpert understanding on British policy on Turkey and the EU, was that an EU that was operating on the basis of a potential future Turkish accession would be completely incompatible with an EU seeking complete political union as a single superstate. At the very least any political union could only happen among a small committed group of countries with many countries within the EU but left out of the political union aspects. Where the UK would like to see itself. The EU cannot be simultaneously working towards expansion whilst working towards "ever closer union" for all its members. Turkey is just the most extreme example of a potential accession country.
So whether it is in the UK's interests ultimately to admit Turkey to the EU would depend on the circumstances at the time. If the choice ever needed to be made it would be in the context of a very different EU more attuned to the UK vision of it. But policy now is merely to keep the option open because it suits out purposes.
The serious Leave politicians must know this, which is why it is so dishonest of them to try to undermine UK policy and knowing that Cameron can never meet their demands re: Veto.
Continuing with my lone interest in the tourism stats.
April was yet another dreadful month for the UK tourism balance with expenditure abroad by UK visitors up no less than 19% on last year whilst expenditure in the UK by foreign tourists was 1% down.
So far in 2016 expenditure overseas is 12% up and earnings from overseas are 3% down.
The UK tourism deficit is fast heading to £20bn a year.
Hmm British tourists prefer to go to Spain and Florida for guaranteed Sun while few foreigners choose to come to the UK for a rain interrupted spring break, what a surprise!! London however continues to be the world's most visited city
It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.
There is nothing Leave can do about this.
All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.
I agree but I found it interesting that there was no lack of intensity from the QT audience tonight, felt exactly the same as previous events.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
People hang out with people like them
My peers are all Remain (a mix of Scottish Tory Noers and SNP-Till-Indy then Tory Yessers). And the Scottish polling seems very accurate to me based on what I see in real life, message boards and social media.
But the same measures applied UK wide just make no sense, I can't detect the core Remain vote anywhere that I am exposed to. Yes it might just mean I'm not mixing with the right people and I'm certainly not betting heavily on this market. But it's still the big questions I have over the polling figures.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
Remain also have middle class leftists and Conservative 'always obey orders' types and those who hate the working class.
There's a general middle/working class split and also a general city/non-city split.
Or at least that's what the reports suggest - it would be amusing if things turned out to be different to what we expect.
I believe 60:40 to Leave is entirely possible. But I think the big issue is that most of us only hang out with people like ourselves. So, we only see people with the same voted.
Of the 30 odd people in my office, I am the only Leaver. 29-1. Staggering. Our ESG analyst spends her weekends campaigning for Remain.
In NW3 I've seen perhaps 20 Remain posters, and no Leave ones.
Remainers or just saying that to not look the odd one out?
Even if we don't join an EU army, it might provide cover for defence cuts. Could be attractive for future governments of both sorts.
Juncker's sales pitch on an EU army is based on overall lower costs. It makes sense. It's the political and fighting capability part that I'm dubious about.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
Remain also have middle class leftists and Conservative 'always obey orders' types and those who hate the working class.
There's a general middle/working class split and also a general city/non-city split.
Or at least that's what the reports suggest - it would be amusing if things turned out to be different to what we expect.
I believe 60:40 to Leave is entirely possible. But I think the big issue is that most of us only hang out with people like ourselves. So, we only see people with the same voted.
Of the 30 odd people in my office, I am the only Leaver. 29-1. Staggering. Our ESG analyst spends her weekends campaigning for Remain.
In NW3 I've seen perhaps 20 Remain posters, and no Leave ones.
Mr. Booth, the eurozone countries seem very unlikely to do it. Which leaves... Sweden? Denmark's position to Germany is comparable to how Ireland trades with the UK, isn't it [which likely rules them out]?
They've integrated so much the pain of leaving is far higher. In a few years it'll be even worse. Then when the EU collapses, it'll be catastrophic.
Cameron has offered three massive hostages to fortune so far - no EU Army, no Turkey and no £350m.
Awkward. Especially as the plans for the EU army will be unveiled on Friday 24th June.
Looking at the current state of EU finances I think the biggest hostage to fortune is the £350 million claim. Whilst the Leave claim was wrong because of the rebate, the amount the EU needs going forward is easily going to increase our contributions up to that amount within a year or two.
Don't you think it might be a problem for Leave if they win to explain what happened to the £350 million a week they promised to spend on the NHS?
They didn't. This is another of those dishonest Remain memes.
(If you will excuse for a minute the fact they won't be in power to do any of this but following your argument)
The commitments they have made are:
£100 million a week extra on the NHS Continuing with all the current funding commitments from the EU until 2020.
Given that the current funding commitments will obviously come from the gross contribution that leaves the question of how much the net contribution is and what can be done with it. It currently stands at £8.5 bn a year or £163 million a week.
So the claim that they will have an extra £100 million a week is reasonable.
Of course it is quite valid to say that if there is a slump in the economy then there will be less money around but that is a different question that is open to debate.
Whatever the result on the referendum these inconvenient facts will still apply:
1) The UK is living vastly beyond its means with government debt having increased by over a trillion pounds in the last decade and the current account deficit at the highest on record.
2) In a globalised world economy the UK is a high cost country competing against peoples as intelligent and educated as we are but who are willing to work harder for less pay and under fewer restrictions.
3) UK governments have made vast unfunded spending promises to their people.
It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.
There is nothing Leave can do about this.
All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.
They can fight for media coverage. They must contest every step of ground, and bang the immigration drum until it breaks next week.
It won't appeal to the liberal Brexiteers, but how else will they get out the most marginal WWC voters?
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
A few of us did feel the same about the general election and couldn't match Ed's toxic personal ratings with Labour's overall polling position...
Except Cameron is leading the Remain campaign and he trounced Ed
It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.
There is nothing Leave can do about this.
All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.
Yes - I had forgotten that Thomas Mair second appearance in Court is tomorrow together with the HOC tribute and then Corbyn on Sky at 6.00pm in his only TV debate and he is bound to mention her. Then of course this Wednesday's worldwide tribute from Trafalgar Square with the coverage continuing into polling day. If leave win they will have done very well but we will see soon enough
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
Remain also have middle class leftists and Conservative 'always obey orders' types and those who hate the working class.
There's a general middle/working class split and also a general city/non-city split.
Or at least that's what the reports suggest - it would be amusing if things turned out to be different to what we expect.
I believe 60:40 to Leave is entirely possible. But I think the big issue is that most of us only hang out with people like ourselves. So, we only see people with the same voted.
Of the 30 odd people in my office, I am the only Leaver. 29-1. Staggering. Our ESG analyst spends her weekends campaigning for Remain.
In NW3 I've seen perhaps 20 Remain posters, and no Leave ones.
I know how that feels.
Ditto. Tbh at this point I can't wait for the bloody thing to be over so that my social group can get back to talking about the rugby.
It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.
There is nothing Leave can do about this.
All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.
I agree but I found it interesting that there was no lack of intensity from the QT audience tonight, felt exactly the same as previous events.
Reassuring. Best thing Leave can probably do is to stop mentioning and drawing attention to it.
Leave need to organise an event at 4pm on Wednesday. They CANNOT allow Remain to seize media coverage as they have since Thursday.
That would look terrible. LEAVE have just got to sit back and let this play out. Maybe this will win the referendum for REMAIN and maybe it won't. Either way there is nothing to be done from LEAVE'S POV.
I think I said something similar a few weeks ago. A narrow Leave win prompts a sudden new deal, and we get offered a second opportunity to vote the 'right' way.
That is what will happen.
I wouldn't be surprised if the government etc actively, but covertly, tried to damage the British economy to encourage the 'right' vote.
I think it's a very good bet we will get another referendum in the event of LEAVE. However, I can't for the life of me see it getting done before June 2017, that's far too fast.
Mr Code, if Remain win on Thursday we will never be given another chance to vote. The powers that be will have had an enormous fright and they will not want to go through that again.
However, if Leave win I think it entirely possible that will be asked to reconsider after a fairly rapid stitch up of a deal that appears to , or maybe even will, to address the factors that drove the first result. It has happened elsewhere in the past.
So, you might want to think of it as a modern version of Pascal's Wager, the optimal result can only be achieved by voting to Leave.
Pascal's Wager was a key reason in my voting leave...
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
Remain also have middle class leftists and Conservative 'always obey orders' types and those who hate the working class.
There's a general middle/working class split and also a general city/non-city split.
Or at least that's what the reports suggest - it would be amusing if things turned out to be different to what we expect.
I believe 60:40 to Leave is entirely possible. But I think the big issue is that most of us only hang out with people like ourselves. So, we only see people with the same voted.
Of the 30 odd people in my office, I am the only Leaver. 29-1. Staggering. Our ESG analyst spends her weekends campaigning for Remain.
In NW3 I've seen perhaps 20 Remain posters, and no Leave ones.
So, we have you predicting the possibility of a 60/40 leave win and the reverse fro TSE.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
A few of us did feel the same about the general election and couldn't match Ed's toxic personal ratings with Labour's overall polling position...
Except Cameron is leading the Remain campaign and he trounced Ed
But its Cameron now with the toxic personal ratings.
Cameron knocking it out of the park here (watching it on catch up).
I have been blissfully away from PB this weekend - what irritated people so much (sounds like by Leavers) on Jo Cox? Don't want to stir it all up again, that said, so perhaps it doesn't matter too much.
Mr. Richard, now I come to think of it, my prediction was Cameron would stay on, negotiate a bloody awful 'deal' for us [again] and then put that to a second vote.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
A few of us did feel the same about the general election and couldn't match Ed's toxic personal ratings with Labour's overall polling position...
Except Cameron is leading the Remain campaign and he trounced Ed
But its Cameron now with the toxic personal ratings.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
People hang out with people like them
My peers are all Remain (a mix of Scottish Tory Noers and SNP-Till-Indy then Tory Yessers). And the Scottish polling seems very accurate to me based on what I see in real life, message boards and social media.
But the same measures applied UK wide just make no sense, I can't detect the core Remain vote anywhere that I am exposed to. Yes it might just mean I'm not mixing with the right people and I'm certainly not betting heavily on this market. But it's still the big questions I have over the polling figures.
My favourite poll so far is the BMG 10-15 June one.
10 point Leave lead with online polling. 6 point Remain lead with telephone polling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
A few of us did feel the same about the general election and couldn't match Ed's toxic personal ratings with Labour's overall polling position...
Except Cameron is leading the Remain campaign and he trounced Ed
But its Cameron now with the toxic personal ratings.
Not that anyone has good personal ratings.
Farage's are worse and he leads Leave
Not as far as I've seen. It seems to be the Boris and Gove show.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
Middle aged, middle class Scot voting leave, yep, that would be me (and hopefully not just me).
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
Remain also have middle class leftists and Conservative 'always obey orders' types and those who hate the working class.
There's a general middle/working class split and also a general city/non-city split.
Or at least that's what the reports suggest - it would be amusing if things turned out to be different to what we expect.
I believe 60:40 to Leave is entirely possible. But I think the big issue is that most of us only hang out with people like ourselves. So, we only see people with the same voted.
Of the 30 odd people in my office, I am the only Leaver. 29-1. Staggering. Our ESG analyst spends her weekends campaigning for Remain.
In NW3 I've seen perhaps 20 Remain posters, and no Leave ones.
So, we have you predicting the possibility of a 60/40 leave win and the reverse fro TSE.
A battle of 2 pbCOM titans......
It was good to hear from JackW earlier. His ARSE would help us know where we stand in these uncertain times. I believe its last outing had a healthy Remain lead.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
Of the 4 mc middle aged scots I have spoken to it has been 2:2.
Cameron knocking it out of the park here (watching it on catch up).
I have been blissfully away from PB this weekend - what irritated people so much (sounds like by Leavers) on Jo Cox? Don't want to stir it all up again, that said, so perhaps it doesn't matter too much.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
A few of us did feel the same about the general election and couldn't match Ed's toxic personal ratings with Labour's overall polling position...
Except Cameron is leading the Remain campaign and he trounced Ed
But its Cameron now with the toxic personal ratings.
Mr. Booth, the eurozone countries seem very unlikely to do it. Which leaves... Sweden? Denmark's position to Germany is comparable to how Ireland trades with the UK, isn't it [which likely rules them out]?
They've integrated so much the pain of leaving is far higher. In a few years it'll be even worse. Then when the EU collapses, it'll be catastrophic.
It seems to me that all the countries north of the Alps would be much better off ditching the EU and joining an expanded Nordic Circle. I'd be perfectly happy with Estonia and Latvia along with the Scandinavian countries, Germany, Poland, Denmark, the Netherlands, the UK and I suspect Norway and Iceland might find that a much more appealing offer. Only four of them would even have to switch away from the Euro as well.
Maybe even the Czech Repubic and Slovakia but absolutely no Belgium, it's not even a real country.
Continuing with my lone interest in the tourism stats.
April was yet another dreadful month for the UK tourism balance with expenditure abroad by UK visitors up no less than 19% on last year whilst expenditure in the UK by foreign tourists was 1% down.
So far in 2016 expenditure overseas is 12% up and earnings from overseas are 3% down.
The UK tourism deficit is fast heading to £20bn a year.
Hmm British tourists prefer to go to Spain and Florida for guaranteed Sun while few foreigners choose to come to the UK for a rain interrupted spring break, what a surprise!! London however continues to be the world's most visited city
You seem to think that weather differential didn't exist before this year.
Note the change on last year - UK expenditure up 19% in April, UK income down 1%.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
A few of us did feel the same about the general election and couldn't match Ed's toxic personal ratings with Labour's overall polling position...
Except Cameron is leading the Remain campaign and he trounced Ed
But its Cameron now with the toxic personal ratings.
Not that anyone has good personal ratings.
Farage's are worse and he leads Leave
Not as far as I've seen. It seems to be the Boris and Gove show.
Good lord no. Andrea and Gisela for life!
PS. After a father's day meetup, it transpires that only my Daughter and I haven't already voted. All this new-fangled postal voting malarkey! #shakes stick in air.
Total: 23:4 Leave/Remain
Area is East of the valleys, west of the Forest of Dean.
Cameron knocking it out of the park here (watching it on catch up).
I have been blissfully away from PB this weekend - what irritated people so much (sounds like by Leavers) on Jo Cox? Don't want to stir it all up again, that said, so perhaps it doesn't matter too much.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
People hang out with people like them
I can easily see where Remain get 50%+. A big element are people who thoroughly dislike the EU but fear the consequences of leaving.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
Remain also have middle class leftists and Conservative 'always obey orders' types and those who hate the working class.
There's a general middle/working class split and also a general city/non-city split.
Or at least that's what the reports suggest - it would be amusing if things turned out to be different to what we expect.
I believe 60:40 to Leave is entirely possible. But I think the big issue is that most of us only hang out with people like ourselves. So, we only see people with the same voted.
Of the 30 odd people in my office, I am the only Leaver. 29-1. Staggering. Our ESG analyst spends her weekends campaigning for Remain.
In NW3 I've seen perhaps 20 Remain posters, and no Leave ones.
So, we have you predicting the possibility of a 60/40 leave win and the reverse fro TSE.
A battle of 2 pbCOM titans......
It was good to hear from JackW earlier. His ARSE would help us know where we stand in these uncertain times. I believe its last outing had a healthy Remain lead.
I really miss Jack's Arse. Let's hope he can make a full recovery and return here soon.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
Remain also have middle class leftists and Conservative 'always obey orders' types and those who hate the working class.
There's a general middle/working class split and also a general city/non-city split.
Or at least that's what the reports suggest - it would be amusing if things turned out to be different to what we expect.
I believe 60:40 to Leave is entirely possible. But I think the big issue is that most of us only hang out with people like ourselves. So, we only see people with the same voted.
Of the 30 odd people in my office, I am the only Leaver. 29-1. Staggering. Our ESG analyst spends her weekends campaigning for Remain.
In NW3 I've seen perhaps 20 Remain posters, and no Leave ones.
I would say that a good thing from the referendum is that some affluent Conservatives eg CR are now much more open minded about the less advantaged members of society.
Cameron has offered three massive hostages to fortune so far - no EU Army, no Turkey and no £350m.
David Cameron's biggest mistake is when he said there would be no more integration. As we continue to be involved in many EU areas of cooperation, we will inevitably have more integration. I understand banking union will be the next big piece to pass the European Parliament. There is no way Cameron can stop all of it, so I do not know why he said it. I do know Eurosceptics will cry betrayal.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
Students for leave? All of them? Interesting.
Staggered by Hurst Lama anecdote, one of my children says it is 3:1 for REMAIN among her student friends from up north but she is voting whilst most of them probably cannot/will not vote.
There does seem to be a vocal left case for Leave. Perhaps that includes the student demo NUS folk?
Oh, having bought the buggers dinner at a rather nice Leeds Italian last night and a pretty crap student frequented barbeque restaurant on Friday, I don't think my son and house mates are "student demo NUS folk". In fact as far as I could make out, and this with pretty direct questioning, the NUS has had no noticeable impact on their university lives - not even the NUS bar ("never go there").
I don't claim this group are typical, I merely report what I find (6 out of the 8 are either science or engineering students mind, the other two medical types).
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
Of the 4 mc middle aged scots I have spoken to it has been 2:2.
Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
A few of us did feel the same about the general election and couldn't match Ed's toxic personal ratings with Labour's overall polling position...
Except Cameron is leading the Remain campaign and he trounced Ed
But its Cameron now with the toxic personal ratings.
Not that anyone has good personal ratings.
Farage's are worse and he leads Leave
As it happens, Cameron's ratings are worse, but both are poor.
It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.
There is nothing Leave can do about this.
All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.
They can fight for media coverage. They must contest every step of ground, and bang the immigration drum until it breaks next week.
It won't appeal to the liberal Brexiteers, but how else will they get out the most marginal WWC voters?
Like how Remain draw attention to the £350m figure by complaining about it, we must not fall into the same trap.
Acknowledge, divert and focus back on the issues. Every time.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
A few of us did feel the same about the general election and couldn't match Ed's toxic personal ratings with Labour's overall polling position...
Except Cameron is leading the Remain campaign and he trounced Ed
But its Cameron now with the toxic personal ratings.
Not that anyone has good personal ratings.
Farage's are worse and he leads Leave
The ones I've seen suggest Cameron is less trusted.
Continuing with my lone interest in the tourism stats.
April was yet another dreadful month for the UK tourism balance with expenditure abroad by UK visitors up no less than 19% on last year whilst expenditure in the UK by foreign tourists was 1% down.
So far in 2016 expenditure overseas is 12% up and earnings from overseas are 3% down.
The UK tourism deficit is fast heading to £20bn a year.
Hmm British tourists prefer to go to Spain and Florida for guaranteed Sun while few foreigners choose to come to the UK for a rain interrupted spring break, what a surprise!! London however continues to be the world's most visited city
You seem to think that weather differential didn't exist before this year.
Note the change on last year - UK expenditure up 19% in April, UK income down 1%.
When foreigners finally stop buying UK assets, the pound will drop like a stone.
The devaluation from a Leave vote would do the economy a world of good. I'm increasingly coming round to the view that we need to use fiscal policy to attack the current account deficit (e.g. purchase taxes on cars, higher duty on wine than beer). We obviously can't levy tariffs but there are still plenty of options available to use.
IS there anything stopping the other EU states turning round on Friday if we vote remain and veto the so called renegotiation package
It's more likely going to be the ECJ to cause issues. As the euro-diplomat story had it in the Telegraph earlier this week, we've been offered a deal so generous, it's actually illegal. I suppose Schulz might stir up trouble in parliament....but who knows?
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
A few of us did feel the same about the general election and couldn't match Ed's toxic personal ratings with Labour's overall polling position...
Except Cameron is leading the Remain campaign and he trounced Ed
But its Cameron now with the toxic personal ratings.
Cameron has offered three massive hostages to fortune so far - no EU Army, no Turkey and no £350m.
Awkward. Especially as the plans for the EU army will be unveiled on Friday 24th June.
Looking at the current state of EU finances I think the biggest hostage to fortune is the £350 million claim. Whilst the Leave claim was wrong because of the rebate, the amount the EU needs going forward is easily going to increase our contributions up to that amount within a year or two.
Don't you think it might be a problem for Leave if they win to explain what happened to the £350 million a week they promised to spend on the NHS?
They didn't. This is another of those dishonest Remain memes.
(If you will excuse for a minute the fact they won't be in power to do any of this but following your argument)
The commitments they have made are:
£100 million a week extra on the NHS Continuing with all the current funding commitments from the EU until 2020.
Given that the current funding commitments will obviously come from the gross contribution that leaves the question of how much the net contribution is and what can be done with it. It currently stands at £8.5 bn a year or £163 million a week.
So the claim that they will have an extra £100 million a week is reasonable.
Of course it is quite valid to say that if there is a slump in the economy then there will be less money around but that is a different question that is open to debate.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
Of the 4 mc middle aged scots I have spoken to it has been 2:2.
Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.
It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
I am a middle aged, middle class Londoner of Glaswegian extraction. And I voted Leave.
Continuing with my lone interest in the tourism stats.
April was yet another dreadful month for the UK tourism balance with expenditure abroad by UK visitors up no less than 19% on last year whilst expenditure in the UK by foreign tourists was 1% down.
So far in 2016 expenditure overseas is 12% up and earnings from overseas are 3% down.
The UK tourism deficit is fast heading to £20bn a year.
Hmm British tourists prefer to go to Spain and Florida for guaranteed Sun while few foreigners choose to come to the UK for a rain interrupted spring break, what a surprise!! London however continues to be the world's most visited city
You seem to think that weather differential didn't exist before this year.
Note the change on last year - UK expenditure up 19% in April, UK income down 1%.
When foreigners finally stop buying UK assets, the pound will drop like a stone.
The devaluation from a Leave vote would do the economy a world of good. I'm increasingly coming round to the view that we need to use fiscal policy to attack the current account deficit (e.g. purchase taxes on cars, higher duty on wine than beer). We obviously can't levy tariffs but there are still plenty of options available to use.
Why does everyone always assume that a devalued currency is automatically good for exporters. As a country we don't produce anything like the same volume of raw materials as we used to, which means many exporting businesses have to import from abroad. Making their products more expensive.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seven other students. All eight of them told me they are voting/have voted for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
Students for leave? All of them? Interesting.
Staggered by Hurst Lama anecdote, one of my children says it is 3:1 for REMAIN among her student friends from up north but she is voting whilst most of them probably cannot/will not vote.
There does seem to be a vocal left case for Leave. Perhaps that includes the student demo NUS folk?
Oh, having bought the buggers dinner at a rather nice Leeds Italian last night and a pretty crap student frequented barbeque restaurant on Friday, I don't think my son and house mates are "student demo NUS folk". In fact as far as I could make out, and this with pretty direct questioning, the NUS has had no noticeable impact on their university lives - not even the NUS bar ("never go there").
I don't claim this group are typical, I merely report what I find (6 out of the 8 are either science or engineering students mind, the other two medical types).
Sci/Eng/Med students tend in my experience to be more to the right than Arts students.
They are also more likely to get out of a bed in a morning.
Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.
I think it unlikely that Leave can win, unless it is government policy to advocate Leave; and very unlikely that a government would lose a referendum, if it advocated Leave.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seved for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
Remain also have middle class leftists and Conservative 'always obey orders' types and those who hate the working class.
There's a general middle/working class split and also a general city/non-city split.
Or at least that's what the reports suggest - it would be amusing if things turned out to be different to what we expect.
I believe 60:40 to Leave is entirely possible. But I think the big issue is that most of us only hang out with people like ourselves. So, we only see people with the same voted.
Of the 30 odd people in my office, I am the only Leaver. 29-1. Staggering. Our ESG analyst spends her weekends campaigning for Remain.
In NW3 I've seen perhaps 20 Remain posters, and no Leave ones.
London is a lost cause for Leave, unless Commonwealth migrants go big for Leave out of resentment for how they're treated compared to EU migrants. Most of the people I know (Kent and London) are for Remain; ironically, most of those who are migrants are for Leave though.
Continuing with my lone interest in the tourism stats.
April was yet another dreadful month for the UK tourism balance with expenditure abroad by UK visitors up no less than 19% on last year whilst expenditure in the UK by foreign tourists was 1% down.
So far in 2016 expenditure overseas is 12% up and earnings from overseas are 3% down.
The UK tourism deficit is fast heading to £20bn a year.
Hmm British tourists prefer to go to Spain and Florida for guaranteed Sun while few foreigners choose to come to the UK for a rain interrupted spring break, what a surprise!! London however continues to be the world's most visited city
It was snowing here in April. Also the Easter holidays.
1) Clarify exactly why you object to the concept of an (opt in) EU army? 2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.
There is nothing Leave can do about this.
All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.
They can fight for media coverage. They must contest every step of ground, and bang the immigration drum until it breaks next week.
It won't appeal to the liberal Brexiteers, but how else will they get out the most marginal WWC voters?
Like how Remain draw attention to the £350m figure by complaining about it, we must not fall into the same trap.
Acknowledge, divert and focus back on the issues. Every time.
It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.
There is nothing Leave can do about this.
All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.
They can fight for media coverage. They must contest every step of ground, and bang the immigration drum until it breaks next week.
It won't appeal to the liberal Brexiteers, but how else will they get out the most marginal WWC voters?
Like how Remain draw attention to the £350m figure by complaining about it, we must not fall into the same trap.
Acknowledge, divert and focus back on the issues. Every time.
Politics 101.
Remain fell for that 350m trap hook line and Juncker.
Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.
Who else but Cameron would have given you a referendum? Cameron knew that whichever way the vote went he would be damaged. But he figured correctly that 10 years as PM is enough for anyone.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
On today's polls Remain has the under 55s, Scotland and London and the middle-classes, not hard to get to 51% if you look!
Yes I understand what the polls are saying. What I was pointing out is that I cannot rationalise it at all. The polls do not tally with the evidence I see in front of me and I cannot find a logical way to match the polls to the real world. The polls fail a basic reasonableness test.
I would love to meet this massive group of middle aged, middle class Londoners and Scots you know who are all backing Leave because I have not met any!
I am a middle aged, middle class Londoner of Glaswegian extraction. And I voted Leave.
Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.
It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
I'm sold on the view that he was originally planning to fight to leave the EU, but something changed his mind quite late on. If you look at everything he's did early on, it makes sense that he was planning to support leave. Coincidentally it also collaborates some things I heard from some of his (ex-)aides/support staff.
It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.
There is nothing Leave can do about this.
All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.
They can fight for media coverage. They must contest every step of ground, and bang the immigration drum until it breaks next week.
It won't appeal to the liberal Brexiteers, but how else will they get out the most marginal WWC voters?
Like how Remain draw attention to the £350m figure by complaining about it, we must not fall into the same trap.
Acknowledge, divert and focus back on the issues. Every time.
Easiest way to avoid REMAIN complaining is by using the NET figure of £163 million a week (2015 figures).
Continuing with my lone interest in the tourism stats.
April was yet another dreadful month for the UK tourism balance with expenditure abroad by UK visitors up no less than 19% on last year whilst expenditure in the UK by foreign tourists was 1% down.
So far in 2016 expenditure overseas is 12% up and earnings from overseas are 3% down.
The UK tourism deficit is fast heading to £20bn a year.
Hmm British tourists prefer to go to Spain and Florida for guaranteed Sun while few foreigners choose to come to the UK for a rain interrupted spring break, what a surprise!! London however continues to be the world's most visited city
You seem to think that weather differential didn't exist before this year.
Note the change on last year - UK expenditure up 19% in April, UK income down 1%.
When foreigners finally stop buying UK assets, the pound will drop like a stone.
The devaluation from a Leave vote would do the economy a world of good. I'm increasingly coming round to the view that we need to use fiscal policy to attack the current account deficit (e.g. purchase taxes on cars, higher duty on wine than beer). We obviously can't levy tariffs but there are still plenty of options available to use.
Why does everyone always assume that a devalued currency is automatically good for exporters. As a country we don't produce anything like the same volume of raw materials as we used to, which means many exporting businesses have to import from abroad. Making their products more expensive.
That's nothing to do with the post you're replying to. The thrust of the argument is that more expensive imports might stop people buying foreign goods, though that only accounts for about a third of our record-breaking current account deficit.
It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.
There is nothing Leave can do about this.
All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.
They can fight for media coverage. They must contest every step of ground, and bang the immigration drum until it breaks next week.
It won't appeal to the liberal Brexiteers, but how else will they get out the most marginal WWC voters?
Like how Remain draw attention to the £350m figure by complaining about it, we must not fall into the same trap.
Acknowledge, divert and focus back on the issues. Every time.
Easiest way to avoid REMAIN complaining is by using the NET figure of £163 million a week (2015 figures).
Continuing with my lone interest in the tourism stats.
April was yet another dreadful month for the UK tourism balance with expenditure abroad by UK visitors up no less than 19% on last year whilst expenditure in the UK by foreign tourists was 1% down.
So far in 2016 expenditure overseas is 12% up and earnings from overseas are 3% down.
The UK tourism deficit is fast heading to £20bn a year.
Hmm British tourists prefer to go to Spain and Florida for guaranteed Sun while few foreigners choose to come to the UK for a rain interrupted spring break, what a surprise!! London however continues to be the world's most visited city
You seem to think that weather differential didn't exist before this year.
Note the change on last year - UK expenditure up 19% in April, UK income down 1%.
When foreigners finally stop buying UK assets, the pound will drop like a stone.
The devaluation from a Leave vote would do the economy a world of good. I'm increasingly coming round to the view that we need to use fiscal policy to attack the current account deficit (e.g. purchase taxes on cars, higher duty on wine than beer). We obviously can't levy tariffs but there are still plenty of options available to use.
Why does everyone always assume that a devalued currency is automatically good for exporters. As a country we don't produce anything like the same volume of raw materials as we used to, which means many exporting businesses have to import from abroad. Making their products more expensive.
It would certainly be good for services exports as they don't need imported raw materials.
Likewise it would be good for the UK tourism industry.
And probably for agricultural and food processing exports.
Steve Bedser (former Birmingham city councillor) Najma Hafeez (former Birmingham city councillor) Councillor Milkinder Jaspal (Wolverhampton) Sion Simon MEP Mary Simons-Jones (freelance bookseller)
Really mediocre compared to Merseyside and Greater Manchester selection.
Continuing with my lone interest in the tourism stats.
April was yet another dreadful month for the UK tourism balance with expenditure abroad by UK visitors up no less than 19% on last year whilst expenditure in the UK by foreign tourists was 1% down.
So far in 2016 expenditure overseas is 12% up and earnings from overseas are 3% down.
The UK tourism deficit is fast heading to £20bn a year.
Hmm British tourists prefer to go to Spain and Florida for guaranteed Sun while few foreigners choose to come to the UK for a rain interrupted spring break, what a surprise!! London however continues to be the world's most visited city
You seem to think that weather differential didn't exist before this year.
Note the change on last year - UK expenditure up 19% in April, UK income down 1%.
When foreigners finally stop buying UK assets, the pound will drop like a stone.
The devaluation from a Leave vote would do the economy a world of good. I'm increasingly coming round to the view that we need to use fiscal policy to attack the current account deficit (e.g. purchase taxes on cars, higher duty on wine than beer). We obviously can't levy tariffs but there are still plenty of options available to use.
Why does everyone always assume that a devalued currency is automatically good for exporters. As a country we don't produce anything like the same volume of raw materials as we used to, which means many exporting businesses have to import from abroad. Making their products more expensive.
I totally agree that devaluation is not as effective in an age of integrated cross-border supply chains; however, all that means is that you need a proportionately larger devaluation to make a real difference.
The only downside is that London will become even more overloaded with tourists.
It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.
There is nothing Leave can do about this.
All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.
They can fight for media coverage. They must contest every step of ground, and bang the immigration drum until it breaks next week.
It won't appeal to the liberal Brexiteers, but how else will they get out the most marginal WWC voters?
Like how Remain draw attention to the £350m figure by complaining about it, we must not fall into the same trap.
Acknowledge, divert and focus back on the issues. Every time.
Easiest way to avoid REMAIN complaining is by using the NET figure of £163 million a week (2015 figures).
But if Leave used £163 million then Remain wouldn't have repeated it constantly for the past few weeks.
It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.
There is nothing Leave can do about this.
All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.
They can fight for media coverage. They must contest every step of ground, and bang the immigration drum until it breaks next week.
It won't appeal to the liberal Brexiteers, but how else will they get out the most marginal WWC voters?
Like how Remain draw attention to the £350m figure by complaining about it, we must not fall into the same trap.
Acknowledge, divert and focus back on the issues. Every time.
Easiest way to avoid REMAIN complaining is by using the NET figure of £163 million a week (2015 figures).
Leave don't WANT to avoid Remain complaining.
Yep, and Remain still don't see how they've made a meal of that one!
If London is going between 60-40 and 55-45 for Remain as suggested by the polls, there must be a hell of lot of stereotypical 'Remain' voters who are voting Leave.
It's pretty clear that last Thursday's murder will be in the news all the way until polls close at 10pm this Thursday.
There is nothing Leave can do about this.
All Leave can do is acknowledge the tragedy, distance themselves from it, keep a measured and reasonable tone (this will be crucial) refocus people on the much bigger issues at stake here, and encourage people to cast their vote based upon what they believe is best for the UK's future.
Yes - I had forgotten that Thomas Mair second appearance in Court is tomorrow together with the HOC tribute and then Corbyn on Sky at 6.00pm in his only TV debate and he is bound to mention her. Then of course this Wednesday's worldwide tribute from Trafalgar Square with the coverage continuing into polling day. If leave win they will have done very well but we will see soon enough
Wasn't it Wednesday that Mr Trump was supposed to be visiting?
(edited to add: And when is Mr Juncker going to make his intervention?)
Just imagine if Cameron had fought for Leave against the wringing wet pacifism of Corbyn's Remain stance. It would have been a Leave landslide, consigned Labour to oblivion, and Cameron would have gone down in history as a great PM. Instead, he will end up as one of the most reviled, in equal measure on all sides. Now we all know why he publically announced his stepping down before 2020.
It's quite incredible. He's have walked it, could claim to stand for democracy and sovereignty and have taken 80% or more of Tory MPs, most members and voters with him - as well as a huge chunk of social conservative Labour supporters/killed off Kippers' reason d'etre.
I guess he'll end up as another Blair figure, in the years and decades to come, gibbering about 'making the right decision', when half of North Africa and the Middle East join the list of EU accession countries, and the UK has a population of 100 million. Cameron knew the flack he'd get from his own side, and he also knew he was hamstrung at the next election. Don't be surprised if he forms a double act with Blair on the speaking circuit. No queues at the GP surgery or scrabbling for places at the local primary school for those two.
If London is going between 60-40 and 55-45 for Remain as suggested by the polls, there must be a hell of lot of stereotypical 'Remain' voters who are voting Leave.
There's quite a lot of peer pressure, on both sides. I expect that the large amount of shy leavers and shy retainers will probably balance themselves out however.
Anecdata: Group of three middle-aged women with young-ish families that I talked about earlier this week, with one undecided and the other two leaning one in each direction.
Now all voting remain, citing the economy mainly. This is why Remain will win safely.
Just another anecdote, the reason why I was away for a few days was that I was collecting my son from University and helping to clean the house* he has shared with seved for Leave. Straws in the wind, nothing more.
*Have you any idea the muck young people can live in? Dear God, it was appalling.
I'm still struggling to find where the Remain vote is going to come from.
From all the comments I've seen in various places and the news coverage of the debate, it seems Remain has middle-aged mothers, the hard left and the liberal yoof. This seems to be a very, very small base on which to find 50% of a referendum vote.
I really am convinced the polls are understating Leave by a considerable number of points. I just can't rationally find a way to explain the 50:50 split.
Remain also have middle class leftists and Conservative 'always obey orders' types and those who hate the working class.
There's a general middle/working class split and also a general city/non-city split.
Or at least that's what the reports suggest - it would be amusing if things turned out to be different to what we expect.
I believe 60:40 to Leave is entirely possible. But I think the big issue is that most of us only hang out with people like ourselves. So, we only see people with the same voted.
Of the 30 odd people in my office, I am the only Leaver. 29-1. Staggering. Our ESG analyst spends her weekends campaigning for Remain.
In NW3 I've seen perhaps 20 Remain posters, and no Leave ones.
London is a lost cause for Leave, unless Commonwealth migrants go big for Leave out of resentment for how they're treated compared to EU migrants. Most of the people I know (Kent and London) are for Remain; ironically, most of those who are migrants are for Leave though.
Is that really your experience with Kent? All my family there are voting Leave, and Vote Leave posters are very much in evidence with no sign of BSE.
Comments
So whether it is in the UK's interests ultimately to admit Turkey to the EU would depend on the circumstances at the time. If the choice ever needed to be made it would be in the context of a very different EU more attuned to the UK vision of it. But policy now is merely to keep the option open because it suits out purposes.
The serious Leave politicians must know this, which is why it is so dishonest of them to try to undermine UK policy and knowing that Cameron can never meet their demands re: Veto.
But the same measures applied UK wide just make no sense, I can't detect the core Remain vote anywhere that I am exposed to. Yes it might just mean I'm not mixing with the right people and I'm certainly not betting heavily on this market. But it's still the big questions I have over the polling figures.
They've integrated so much the pain of leaving is far higher. In a few years it'll be even worse. Then when the EU collapses, it'll be catastrophic.
(If you will excuse for a minute the fact they won't be in power to do any of this but following your argument)
The commitments they have made are:
£100 million a week extra on the NHS
Continuing with all the current funding commitments from the EU until 2020.
Given that the current funding commitments will obviously come from the gross contribution that leaves the question of how much the net contribution is and what can be done with it. It currently stands at £8.5 bn a year or £163 million a week.
So the claim that they will have an extra £100 million a week is reasonable.
Of course it is quite valid to say that if there is a slump in the economy then there will be less money around but that is a different question that is open to debate.
1) The UK is living vastly beyond its means with government debt having increased by over a trillion pounds in the last decade and the current account deficit at the highest on record.
2) In a globalised world economy the UK is a high cost country competing against peoples as intelligent and educated as we are but who are willing to work harder for less pay and under fewer restrictions.
3) UK governments have made vast unfunded spending promises to their people.
It won't appeal to the liberal Brexiteers, but how else will they get out the most marginal WWC voters?
I wouldn't be surprised if the government etc actively, but covertly, tried to damage the British economy to encourage the 'right' vote.
So, we have you predicting the possibility of a 60/40 leave win and the reverse fro TSE.
A battle of 2 pbCOM titans......
Not that anyone has good personal ratings.
I have been blissfully away from PB this weekend - what irritated people so much (sounds like by Leavers) on Jo Cox? Don't want to stir it all up again, that said, so perhaps it doesn't matter too much.
10 point Leave lead with online polling.
6 point Remain lead with telephone polling.
It could go either way.
Maybe even the Czech Repubic and Slovakia but absolutely no Belgium, it's not even a real country.
Note the change on last year - UK expenditure up 19% in April, UK income down 1%.
PS. After a father's day meetup, it transpires that only my Daughter and I haven't already voted. All this new-fangled postal voting malarkey! #shakes stick in air.
Total: 23:4 Leave/Remain
Area is East of the valleys, west of the Forest of Dean.
Let sleeping dogs...
I don't claim this group are typical, I merely report what I find (6 out of the 8 are either science or engineering students mind, the other two medical types).
Nothing to stop the European Parliament voting against, of course.
Mr. Lowlander, nice idea but really cannot see it happening.
Acknowledge, divert and focus back on the issues. Every time.
In any case its Boris who is leading Leave.
The devaluation from a Leave vote would do the economy a world of good. I'm increasingly coming round to the view that we need to use fiscal policy to attack the current account deficit (e.g. purchase taxes on cars, higher duty on wine than beer). We obviously can't levy tariffs but there are still plenty of options available to use.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07gr86m/eu-referendum-campaign-broadcasts-vote-leave-14062016
Your canvassing reports were accurate last year.
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/744603985810620418
They are also more likely to get out of a bed in a morning.
2) How would the UK leaving the EU make any difference to the establishment of said EU army?
Remain fell for that 350m trap hook line and Juncker.
Unlike that gimp Farage of course - who quit and then un-quit.
Likewise it would be good for the UK tourism industry.
And probably for agricultural and food processing exports.
Steve Bedser (former Birmingham city councillor)
Najma Hafeez (former Birmingham city councillor)
Councillor Milkinder Jaspal (Wolverhampton)
Sion Simon MEP
Mary Simons-Jones (freelance bookseller)
Really mediocre compared to Merseyside and Greater Manchester selection.
The only downside is that London will become even more overloaded with tourists.
(edited to add: And when is Mr Juncker going to make his intervention?)