This is the guy that was telling us a few months ago that Andy Burnham was nailed on as Labour leader & when that didn't happen there would be a Hilary Benn coup against Corbyn !
There's still time for both of those to happen. I mean, we might be looking at IDS as PM too
Weirdly, since Boris confirmed my low opinion of him and Gove became Man Who Screams At Migrants, IDS is the Eurosceptic who's gone up the most in my estimation.
The assassination of Anna Lind made no difference to the outcome of the Swedish referendum in 2003; the attempt to blame the Madrid bombing in 2004 on ETA backfired on the Spanish government. Eastbourne was won by the Lib Dems after Ian Gow was murdered. I would be surprised if swing voters hold the Leave campaign responsible for this murder.
The 2004 bombings were clearly carried out by Muslim extremists and the electorate blamed the Iraq War, this most likely looks like a deranged British nationalist, the murder of Anna Lindh was tragic but not considered a political act at all. Sinn Fein of course was not running in Eastbourne and would have been trounced if they were
The perpetrator was mentally ill.
There is not a mentally ill candidate in this election.
It is therefore irrelevant.
No doubt he is mentally ill but we will see if early reports of what he was alleged to have said are clarified
'Both sides will soften their campaigns but I cannot see Leave winning now, their momentum has gone and the killer will be seen to have supported their campaign, however unfairly'
How on earth can you claim that when we don't even know the facts ?
It will shift less than a dozen votes.
The incident will shift few if any votes.
The only thing liable to shift votes is a bucketful of Patronising Sanctimoniousness by people trying to imply that this shows that anyone to the right of Ken Clarke is a loathsome racofascist. Sadly they never learn and there are signs that this is exactly what will happen.
Twitter is an even viler cesspit than ever today. I've seen the most revolting stuff to make a political point, whilst in the same sentence claiming to care about her family.
Agreed. I don't see how the act of a mentally ill person with no apparent political history or connections can change how many people vote. The overwhelming majority of facebook and twitter posts I have seen are heartfelt and are purely focused on the tragedy and the effect on her family.
I am bracing myself for an increasing number of posts and speeches including phrases such as 'this is what Jo Cox was campaigning for' etc etc
Tragic news about Jo Cox and shows not even our gun laws are infallible. As for the referendum it will inevitably stop the Leave momentum dead, not that that should be a major consideration today and with a week to go until polling day campaigning will halt until at least the weekend
Might have helped them a bit by killing the coverage of the Farage advert this morning - felt like it could have gone too far. On the other hand it could give Remain an opportunity to recalibrate their campaign a bit and soften it slightly.
Both sides will soften their campaigns but I cannot see Leave winning now, their momentum has gone and the killer will be seen to have supported their campaign, however unfairly
Thats a bit silly. Millions have voted by post and millions of others are not going to suddenly change their minds due to one incident however awful.
I predict that - come the polls on Monday morning - we'll see Lead with leads of oooh... about 6%.
Why are you so confident of that?
The evidence on here is that some firm Leavers bottle it when they think Leave might win.
And those are the ones that admit to feeling like that.
We aren't representative of the voters.
Yes, we're more likely to be intense and partisan, and thus less likely to admit to such wavering than a normal person.
I don't think enough Leavers will bottle it at the last moment for Remain to win, not with Leave seeming to build up a sizable lead, all the passion and drive and momentum, but there will be some.
Up until the last week, I always thought the result the British public wanted was Remain 50.01% and Leave 49.99% to give the EU a very nasty shock, "one last chance", and put our membership on probation.
However, it's possible (just possible) that they want a result of Leave 50.01% and Remain 49.99% to give a very clear verdict to the UK Government (and the EU) that they want a much better deal than what Cameron got.
That would force the EU to keep negotiating with us, and for our Government to do the same, without really being a mandate for anything more than that. Unless the EU ignored it..
I'd expect, in that eventuality, there'd be further reforms to the UK membership to align with refounding the EU treaties for the eurozone in 2017/2018, and then the Government would stand at GE2020 on a platform to endorse its "better" deal, or not.
Tragic news about Jo Cox and shows not even our gun laws are infallible. As for the referendum it will inevitably stop the Leave momentum dead, not that that should be a major consideration today and with a week to go until polling day campaigning will halt until at least the weekend
Might have helped them a bit by killing the coverage of the Farage advert this morning - felt like it could have gone too far. On the other hand it could give Remain an opportunity to recalibrate their campaign a bit and soften it slightly.
Both sides will soften their campaigns but I cannot see Leave winning now, their momentum has gone and the killer will be seen to have supported their campaign, however unfairly
Thats a bit silly. Millions have voted by post and millions of others are not going to suddenly change their minds due to one incident however awful.
I predict that - come the polls on Monday morning - we'll see Lead with leads of oooh... about 6%.
Why are you so confident of that?
The evidence on here is that some firm Leavers bottle it when they think Leave might win.
And those are the ones that admit to feeling like that.
We aren't representative of the voters.
I think it applies to professional ABs in London and the South East.
If a few hundred thousand bottle it, we lose.
This group is largely REMAIN anyway. What has turned the referendum is that immigration has connected as the most salient issue with WWC in the North and Midlands.
There are solid Leavers on here I was counting on who have wibble-wobbled and worried me!
Tragic news about Jo Cox and shows not even our gun laws are infallible. As for the referendum it will inevitably stop the Leave momentum dead, not that that should be a major consideration today and with a week to go until polling day campaigning will halt until at least the weekend
Might have helped them a bit by killing the coverage of the Farage advert this morning - felt like it could have gone too far. On the other hand it could give Remain an opportunity to recalibrate their campaign a bit and soften it slightly.
Both sides will soften their campaigns but I cannot see Leave winning now, their momentum has gone and the killer will be seen to have supported their campaign, however unfairly
Thats a bit silly. Millions have voted by post and millions of others are not going to suddenly change their minds due to one incident however awful.
No but I think it's likely to crystallise the swingback that was inevitable to some extent.
Jo Cox was a formidable campaigner for remain and as time evolves I would expect from Corbyn down a request to labour supporters to vote remain as a tribute to her.
You got any links to back that claim up otherwise some might accuse you of trying to exploit the poor lady's death?
The Guardian are reporting that Tommy Mair had Obsessive Compulsive Disorder (OCD). They also have an interview with his mixed race half brother (his mothers second marriage was to a man from Grenada) who notes that Mair had to his knowledge never expressed any racist views.
Whether this impacts on the referendum will I suspect depend on whether he was just a mentally disturbed man (and as other posters have noted there are under care in the community many around) or someone associated with a right wing group.
If it's the former I suspect it will have limited impact (indeed it might hit Cameron as ultimately care in the community failures would be more associated with the government) if it's the latter it will be more significant.
Interestingly the Mail seems to be pushing the right wing link more than other papers.
Was she? I'm not trying to be rude about her. But until a few hours ago I had never heard of her.
Her violent death is appalling. It is a tragedy for her husband and children. It is a tragedy for those who knew and loved her. But in order to pay proper regard to the serious and sad nature of what happened today it is not necessary to turn the departed into some sort of political colossus or saint. She could have been a ho-hum lazy sort of a person who never uttered a coherent sentence and it would still be an appalling death and a tragedy for her loved ones.
That does not appear to the case.
Like you, I had not heard of her until today. That is my loss.
@ITVAllegra: Girls + boys study Jo Cox. Campaigner, tireless mum, leader, mountain climber, brave, policy nerd, conversationalist, stylish. Hard as nails
The Daily Mail is going big on Britain First. They've spoken to BF's leader, who's denied any connection. They seem to be gagging to make some connection, as if BF thought 'you know what, the referendum could go either way, let's kill a Labour MP, that'll really help Leave'. Admittedly I don't know anything about BF, but that seems nonsensical to me.
This stuff is making me think the Daily Mail is planning to come out for Remain.
Tragic news about Jo Cox and shows not even our gun laws are infallible. As for the referendum it will inevitably stop the Leave momentum dead, not that that should be a major consideration today and with a week to go until polling day campaigning will halt until at least the weekend
Might have helped them a bit by killing the coverage of the Farage advert this morning - felt like it could have gone too far. On the other hand it could give Remain an opportunity to recalibrate their campaign a bit and soften it slightly.
Both sides will soften their campaigns but I cannot see Leave winning now, their momentum has gone and the killer will be seen to have supported their campaign, however unfairly
Bullshit plain and simple. You are projecting your own bias onto events.
No, I said Leave had the edge at lunchtime but you cannot dismiss an event like this which for many of the undecideds will be one of the last major news stories before they decide which way they will go, if it is confirmed that the killer shouted 'Britain First' that is not a good image for Leave however you play it and however unfair that may be
I suspect you are correct for undecided voters. If the attacker is linked in people's minds to racism, and if people link racism to Leave, then they will not want to be associated with voting Leave.
The ironic thing is that - if we vote Remain - the ongoing levels of immigration will only increase the pressures in society, increasing racism and increasing risks of violence. We need to manage immigration fairly to make immigration be an issue we can accept in society.
At this time we don't know enough to be sure we understand the motives of the attacker. I have read reporting of witnesses saying he said one thing, and other reports saying that the witnesses had denied having heard that. I have read comments saying that the attacker had mental health issues, but reports saying just that he had worked with people who had mental health issues.
We need the press, commentators and web warriors to be very careful in what they write and focus on the only thing that matters: that someone died today who shouldn't have done, and we should remember that almost all politicians go into public life to try to make the world a better place, even if we disagree with them on how to do that. We can go back to the referendum soon enough.
In light of today's events, BMG are delaying their polls by 24 hours. So they will now be released at 1am Saturday.
All polling is irrelevant now until the weekend, while it does seem a bit inappropriate to look at the political consequences of today's news nonetheless while at lunchtime it was literally neck and neck, if not Leave with the narrow advantage, it is now difficult to see past a narrow Remain win but we shall see. The shooter shouting 'Britain First', allegedly, will be all over the news today and tomorrow
In light of today's events, BMG are delaying their polls by 24 hours. So they will now be released at 1am Saturday.
All polling is irrelevant now until the weekend, while it does seem a bit inappropriate to look at the political consequences of today's news nonetheless while at lunchtime it was literally neck and neck, if not Leave with the narrow advantage, it is now difficult to see past a narrow Remain win but we shall see. The shooter shouting 'Britain First', allegedly, will be all over the news today and tomorrow
Sorry, the polls showed a dead heat, and the result was close to a dead heat, so the shooting made how much difference?
The difference between an exact dead heat and close to a dead heat is that between victory and defeat and Giffords did survive
I don't think you understand opinion polls. They are not an absolutely accurate measure of opinion.
So if they showed a tie, of 50/50 and the result was 51/49 or 52/48 that is exactly what the poll was predicting within the margin of error regardless of which way the vote actually went.
Hence you are full of very large amounts of extremely smelly bull sh*t.
Pollsters can blame margin of error for any inaccurate forecast if the result was close enough to what they said
The Daily Mail are going big on Britain First. They've spoken to BF's leader, who's denied any connection. They seem to be gagging to make some connection, as if BF thought 'you know what, the referendum could go either way, let's kill a Labour MP, that'll really help Leave'. Admittedly I don't know anything about BF, but that seems nonsensical to me.
This stuff is making me think the Daily Mail are planning to come out for Remain.
'Both sides will soften their campaigns but I cannot see Leave winning now, their momentum has gone and the killer will be seen to have supported their campaign, however unfairly'
How on earth can you claim that when we don't even know the facts ?
It will shift less than a dozen votes.
The incident will shift few if any votes.
The only thing liable to shift votes is a bucketful of Patronising Sanctimoniousness by people trying to imply that this shows that anyone to the right of Ken Clarke is a loathsome racofascist. Sadly they never learn and there are signs that this is exactly what will happen.
Twitter is an even viler cesspit than ever today. I've seen the most revolting stuff to make a political point, whilst in the same sentence claiming to care about her family.
Agreed. I don't see how the act of a mentally ill person with no apparent political history or connections can change how many people vote. The overwhelming majority of facebook and twitter posts I have seen are heartfelt and are purely focused on the tragedy and the effect on her family.
I am bracing myself for an increasing number of posts and speeches including phrases such as 'this is what Jo Cox was campaigning for' etc etc
If that is what they do it will backfire badly because it insults peoples intelligence.
If someone had shot Her Majesty that might work but with someone most of us had never heard of it just looks silly and patronising
Tragic news about Jo Cox and shows not even our gun laws are infallible. As for the referendum it will inevitably stop the Leave momentum dead, not that that should be a major consideration today and with a week to go until polling day campaigning will halt until at least the weekend
Might have helped them a bit by killing the coverage of the Farage advert this morning - felt like it could have gone too far. On the other hand it could give Remain an opportunity to recalibrate their campaign a bit and soften it slightly.
Both sides will soften their campaigns but I cannot see Leave winning now, their momentum has gone and the killer will be seen to have supported their campaign, however unfairly
Bullshit plain and simple. You are projecting your own bias onto events.
No, I said Leave had the edge at lunchtime but you cannot dismiss an event like this which for many of the undecideds will be one of the last major news stories before they decide which way they will go, if it is confirmed that the killer shouted 'Britain First' that is not a good image for Leave however you play it and however unfair that may be
The ironic thing is that - if we vote Remain - the ongoing levels of immigration will only increase the pressures in society, increasing racism and increasing risks of violence. We need to manage immigration fairly to make immigration be an issue we can accept in society.
Between mourning Jo Cox, and awaiting more details of Thomas Mair, the person I feel we're losing sight of is the man who intervened in the altercation, as mentioned in all the eye-witness accounts. Presumably the same man who was taken to hospital with light injuries? His role seems extraordinary.
Tragic news about Jo Cox and shows not even our gun laws are infallible. As for the referendum it will inevitably stop the Leave momentum dead, not that that should be a major consideration today and with a week to go until polling day campaigning will halt until at least the weekend
Might have helped them a bit by killing the coverage of the Farage advert this morning - felt like it could have gone too far. On the other hand it could give Remain an opportunity to recalibrate their campaign a bit and soften it slightly.
Both sides will soften their campaigns but I cannot see Leave winning now, their momentum has gone and the killer will be seen to have supported their campaign, however unfairly
Thats a bit silly. Millions have voted by post and millions of others are not going to suddenly change their minds due to one incident however awful.
No but I think it's likely to crystallise the swingback that was inevitable to some extent.
Jo Cox was a formidable campaigner for remain and as time evolves I would expect from Corbyn down a request to labour supporters to vote remain as a tribute to her.
Was she? I'm not trying to be rude about her. But until a few hours ago I had never heard of her.
Her violent death is appalling. It is a tragedy for her husband and children. It is a tragedy for those who knew and loved her. But in order to pay proper regard to the serious and sad nature of what happened today it is not necessary to turn the departed into some sort of political colossus or saint. She could have been a ho-hum lazy sort of a person who never uttered a coherent sentence and it would still be an appalling death and a tragedy for her loved ones.
A tragic death does not become more tragic because of the virtue of the victim. If the other person who was attacked had been killed (and let us pray that he survives) and not the MP it would not make a ha'porth of difference to the tragic nature of the event.
Really until we know some more facts there is not much more to be said.
I imagine you dislike the (if US TV shows are an indication) practice of talking about young victims in terms of their academic aptitude. 'The honors student' etc, that sort of thing.
I most certainly do. Every young person is a star, a brilliant student etc, struck down with so much promise etc. I understand the impulse behind it. But it's almost as if it implies that the death of an average person with not many friends and ho hum exam results is less important. And that's not true. Most people are not stars, not even promising ones. Most of us are ordinary. But a life is a life and when it is taken away violently it is a sad loss. Ordinary is the human condition.
In the criminal law it is the act which is being punished not the fact that we have lost a future Einstein. I dislike the sentimentality which has been imported into the system, because in an odd way it seems to diminish the importance of what's happened.
And when the death is a suicide of a mentally ill young person the reports rarely say what in my experience is true - that such people can often - because of their illness be a complete pain to be with and can cause immense strain on their families, relationships, parents marriages. It is understandable that people should want to have a narrative that provides some comfort but the truth is usually a bit messier.
Off topic, any recommendations for nice hotels in Rome from the PB wisdom group or even @SeanT ("I have been staying in nice hotels for 20 years"): am taking daughter and fidanzato there.
Haven't been for a while but the Excelsior was always good
Between mourning Jo Cox, and awaiting more details of Thomas Mair, the person I feel we're losing sight of is the man who intervened in the altercation, as mentioned in all the eye-witness accounts. Presumably the same man who was taken to hospital with light injuries? His role seems extraordinary.
Agreed. I can only hope I'd be as brave. Probably not though.
Was she? I'm not trying to be rude about her. But until a few hours ago I had never heard of her.
Her violent death is appalling. It is a tragedy for her husband and children. It is a tragedy for those who knew and loved her. But in order to pay proper regard to the serious and sad nature of what happened today it is not necessary to turn the departed into some sort of political colossus or saint. She could have been a ho-hum lazy sort of a person who never uttered a coherent sentence and it would still be an appalling death and a tragedy for her loved ones.
A tragic death does not become more tragic because of the virtue of the victim. If the other person who was attacked had been killed (and let us pray that he survives) and not the MP it would not make a ha'porth of difference to the tragic nature of the event.
Really until we know some more facts there is not much more to be said.
I imagine you dislike the (if US TV shows are an indication) practice of talking about young victims in terms of their academic aptitude. 'The honors student' etc, that sort of thing.
In the criminal law it is the act which is being punished not the fact that we have lost a future Einstein. I dislike the sentimentality which has been imported into the system, because in an odd way it seems to diminish the importance of what's happened.
And when the death is a suicide of a mentally ill young person the reports rarely say what in my experience is true - that such people can often - because of their illness be a complete pain to be with and can cause immense strain on their families, relationships, parents marriages. It is understandable that people should want to have a narrative that provides some comfort but the truth is usually a bit messier.
My father committed suicide when I was 13. My immediate reaction was relief. He was, at times, monstrous to live with. It took me a long time to deal with the resultant guilt that feeling caused. So thank you for writing that. It's not often acknowledged.
Agreed. I don't see how the act of a mentally ill person with no apparent political history or connections can change how many people vote. The overwhelming majority of facebook and twitter posts I have seen are heartfelt and are purely focused on the tragedy and the effect on her family.
If it were to have an impact, I don't think it would be overt, like 'this terrible thing has made me reconsider issue x'. It would be if an event contributed to people feeling a little differently in a general sense, and that might have an impact on their assessment of other matters, even if not consciously.
I don't think it is quantifiable, just that as many have mentioned today, our brains operate in odd ways, and tangential or unconnected happenings can ultimately lay behind and influence other things - people might say their reasons for voting or are one thing, after all, but supplementaries can sometimes cast doubt on that, or that they intend to vote one way but supplementaries cast doubt on how certain that might be true.
Up until the last week, I always thought the result the British public wanted was Remain 50.01% and Leave 49.99% to give the EU a very nasty shock, "one last chance", and put our membership on probation.
However, it's possible (just possible) that they want a result of Leave 50.01% and Remain 49.99% to give a very clear verdict to the UK Government (and the EU) that they want a much better deal than what Cameron got.
That would force the EU to keep negotiating with us, and for our Government to do the same, without really being a mandate for anything more than that. Unless the EU ignored it..
I'd expect, in that eventuality, there'd be further reforms to the UK membership to align with refounding the EU treaties for the eurozone in 2017/2018, and then the Government would stand at GE2020 on a platform to endorse its "better" deal, or not.
People do want to sent a message. How hard is the question. I was struck by the conclusion of this piece on the BBC:
As dark as the mood is in Brussels and beyond, it's also fervently felt in many circles that the UK referendum is a clear message that the EU must reform.
Thing is, do you believe it will?
I think whether it is narrow remain or leave will come down to how many deep down believe the EU can be made to work and needs to be sent a message, and how many no longer believe it can be made to work (I discount those who never thought it could, they won't swing the result) so it is not about sending a message.
Tragic news about Jo Cox anding day campaigning will halt until at least the weekend
Might have helped them a bit by killing the coverage of the Farage advert this morning - felt like it could have gone too far. On the other hand it could give Remain an opportunity to recalibrate their campaign a bit and soften it slightly.
Both sides will soften their campaigns but I cannot see Leave winning now, their momentum has gone and the killer will be seen to have supported their campaign, however unfairly
Thats a bit silly. Millions have voted by post and millions of others are not going to suddenly change their minds due to one incident however awful.
I predict that - come the polls on Monday morning - we'll see Lead with leads of oooh... about 6%.
Why are you so confident of that?
The evidence on here is that some firm Leavers bottle it when they think Leave might win.
And those are the ones that admit to feeling like that.
We aren't representative of the voters.
Yes, we're more likely to be intense and partisan, and thus less likely to admit to such wavering than a normal person.
I don't think enough Leavers will bottle it at the last moment for Remain to win, not with Leave seeming to build up a sizable lead, all the passion and drive and momentum, but there will be some.
Up until the last week, I always thought the result the British public wanted was Remain 50.01% and Leave 49.99% to give the EU a very nasty shock, "one last chance", and put our membership on probation.
However, it's possible (just possible) that they want a result of Leave 50.01% and Remain 49.99% to give a very clear verdict to the UK Government (and the EU) that they want a much better deal than what Cameron got.
That would force the EU to keep negotiating with us, and for our Government to do the same, without really being a mandate for anything more than that. Unless the EU ignored it..
I'd expect, in that eventuality, there'd be further reforms to the UK membership to align with refounding the EU treaties for the eurozone in 2017/2018, and then the Government would stand at GE2020 on a platform to endorse its "better" deal, or not.
If the result is 50.01 for REMAIN. Brussels will take that as a cue for 'more Europe' quickly before the Brits have a chance to get uppity again.
There are pictures circulating on twitter of the person arrested and Farage at an anti EU rally.
If that is true then I think the impact on the referendum is clear, sad to say, though it has to be stressed those pictures will need verification
Oh come on get real.....reports from neighbours say loner, lived alone, unemployed, only passed the time of day with you.....now he is a political activist.....photoshop.
...the very sketchy evidence of some emotional eye-witnesses...
True, and as many experts can attest, eyewitness evidence can be unreliable. There is however a difference between saying that eyewitnesses are unreliable and saying that the eyewitnesses do not exist. The Guardian names two named (ouch!) individuals here.
There is a phenomenon known to the police and criminal bar of people confessing to crimes they clearly could not possibly have committed or people claiming to be at events they weren't at etc Not saying that this is the case here with the apparent witnesses. But in the immediate aftermath I'd be cautious about taking as gospel anything which is reported in the press or on the internet about the events. Such reports are rarely accurate. Indeed, I have been involved in quite a number of cases where even when the facts were clear the journalists managed to insert a number of errors into the reports. God knows how many there are in the breathless rush to write anything at all every few minutes on "live' updates.
Tragic news about Jo Cox anding day campaigning will halt until at least the weekend
Might have helped them a bit by killing the coverage of the Farage advert this morning - felt like it could have gone too far. On the other hand it could give Remain an opportunity to recalibrate their campaign a bit and soften it slightly.
Both sides will soften their campaigns but I cannot see Leave winning now, their momentum has gone and the killer will be seen to have supported their campaign, however unfairly
Thats a bit silly. Millions have voted by post and millions of others are not going to suddenly change their minds due to one incident however awful.
I predict that - come the polls on Monday morning - we'll see Lead with leads of oooh... about 6%.
Why are you so confident of that?
The evidence on here is that some firm Leavers bottle it when they think Leave might win.
And those are the ones that admit to feeling like that.
We aren't representative of the voters.
Up until the last week, I always thought the result the British public wanted was Remain 50.01% and Leave 49.99% to give the EU a very nasty shock, "one last chance", and put our membership on probation.
However, it's possible (just possible) that they want a result of Leave 50.01% and Remain 49.99% to give a very clear verdict to the UK Government (and the EU) that they want a much better deal than what Cameron got.
That would force the EU to keep negotiating with us, and for our Government to do the same, without really being a mandate for anything more than that. Unless the EU ignored it..
I'd expect, in that eventuality, there'd be further reforms to the UK membership to align with refounding the EU treaties for the eurozone in 2017/2018, and then the Government would stand at GE2020 on a platform to endorse its "better" deal, or not.
If the result is 50.01 for REMAIN. Brussels will take that as a cue for 'more Europe' quickly before the Brits have a chance to get uppity again.
I know. And we Brits will be livid when the Swiss get a deal on free movement (nicely timed until after the referendum) and we don't.
Which side of 50% the judgement falls is crucial, IMHO.
I imagine you dislike the (if US TV shows are an indication) practice of talking about young victims in terms of their academic aptitude. 'The honors student' etc, that sort of thing.
I most certainly do. Every young person is a star, a brilliant student etc, struck down with so much promise etc. I understand the impulse behind it. But it's almost as if it implies that the death of an average person with not many friends and ho hum exam results is less important. And that's not true. Most people are not stars, not even promising ones. Most of us are ordinary. But a life is a life and when it is taken away violently it is a sad loss. Ordinary is the human condition.
In the criminal law it is the act which is being punished not the fact that we have lost a future Einstein. I dislike the sentimentality which has been imported into the system, because in an odd way it seems to diminish the importance of what's happened.
And when the death is a suicide of a mentally ill young person the reports rarely say what in my experience is true - that such people can often - because of their illness be a complete pain to be with and can cause immense strain on their families, relationships, parents marriages. It is understandable that people should want to have a narrative that provides some comfort but the truth is usually a bit messier.
I'd often wondered about victim impact statements in the event of a murder.
What if no one liked the victim? What if they were a dull... of no discernible merit?
What if there is no one to speak for them? Still a tragedy in my view.
Tragic news about Jo Cox and shows not even our gun laws are infallible. As for the referendum it will inevitably stop the Leave momentum dead, not that that should be a major consideration today and with a week to go until polling day campaigning will halt until at least the weekend
Might have helped them a bit by killing the coverage of the Farage advert this morning - felt like it could have gone too far. On the other hand it could give Remain an opportunity to recalibrate their campaign a bit and soften it slightly.
Both sides will soften their campaigns but I cannot see Leave winning now, their momentum has gone and the killer will be seen to have supported their campaign, however unfairly
Thats a bit silly. Millions have voted by post and millions of others are not going to suddenly change their minds due to one incident however awful.
No but I think it's likely to crystallise the swingback that was inevitable to some extent.
Jo Cox was a formidable campaigner for remain and as time evolves I would expect from Corbyn down a request to labour supporters to vote remain as a tribute to her.
Utterly daft.
Quite.
The future destiny of this country is entirely disconnected from the random, tragic, death of one person a few days before the vote.
In light of today's events, BMG are delaying their polls by 24 hours. So they will now be released at 1am Saturday.
All polling is irrelevant now until the weekend, while it does seem a bit inappropriate to look at the political consequences of today's news nonetheless while at lunchtime it was literally neck and neck, if not Leave with the narrow advantage, it is now difficult to see past a narrow Remain win but we shall see. The shooter shouting 'Britain First', allegedly, will be all over the news today and tomorrow
Was she? I'm not trying to be rude about her. But until a few hours ago I had never heard of her.
Her violent death is appalling. It is a tragedy for her husband and children. It is a tragedy for those who knew and loved her. But in order to pay proper regard to the serious and sad nature of what happened today it is not necessary to turn the departed into some sort of political colossus or saint. She could have been a ho-hum lazy sort of a person who never uttered a coherent sentence and it would still be an appalling death and a tragedy for her loved ones.
A tragic death does not become more tragic because of the virtue of the victim. If the other person who was attacked had been killed (and let us pray that he survives) and not the MP it would not make a ha'porth of difference to the tragic nature of the event.
Really until we know some more facts there is not much more to be said.
I imagine you dislike the (if US TV shows are an indication) practice of talking about young victims in terms of their academic aptitude. 'The honors student' etc, that sort of thing.
I most certainly do. Every young person is a star, a brilliant student etc, struck down with so much promise etc.
I was once in a role which involved a lot of reading child psychologist reports, of some very troubled people. It was remarkable how practically every single child was at some point described with a specific positive modifier (I honestly don't recall now exactly what it was, but it was a recurring description of children with wildly different issues and behaviours, and yet all were apparently identical in this particular way). As you say, the impulse is understandable, but it can become rote.
Tragic news about Jo Cox anding day campaigning will halt until at least the weekend
Might have helped them a bit by killing the coverage of the Farage advert this morning - felt like it could have gone too far. On the other hand it could give Remain an opportunity to recalibrate their campaign a bit and soften it slightly.
Both sides will soften their campaigns but I cannot see Leave winning now, their momentum has gone and the killer will be seen to have supported their campaign, however unfairly
Thats a bit silly. Millions have voted by post and millions of others are not going to suddenly change their minds due to one incident however awful.
I predict that - come the polls on Monday morning - we'll see Lead with leads of oooh... about 6%.
Why are you so confident of that?
The evidence on here is that some firm Leavers bottle it when they think Leave might win.
And those are the ones that admit to feeling like that.
We aren't representative of the voters.
Yes, we're more likely to be intense and partisan, and thus less likely to admit to such wavering than a normal person.
I don't think enough Leavers will bottle it at the last moment for Remain to win, not with Leave seeming to build up a sizable lead, all the passion and drive and momentum, but there will be some.
Up until the last week, I always thought the result the British public wanted was Remain 50.01% and Leave 49.99% to give the EU a very nasty shock, "one last chance", and put our membership on probation.
However, it's possible (just possible) that they want a result of Leave 50.01% and Remain 49.99% to give a very clear verdict to the UK Government (and the EU) that they want a much better deal than what Cameron got.
That would force the EU to keep negotiating with us, and for our Government to do the same, without really being a mandate for anything more than that. Unless the EU ignored it..
I'd expect, in that eventuality, there'd be further reforms to the UK membership to align with refounding the EU treaties for the eurozone in 2017/2018, and then the Government would stand at GE2020 on a platform to endorse its "better" deal, or not.
If the result is 50.01 for REMAIN. Brussels will take that as a cue for 'more Europe' quickly before the Brits have a chance to get uppity again.
"The original claim for the “Britain First” shout was Aamir Tahir, a local dry cleaner. In the past few hours Mr. Tahir has told other news outlets that he “wasn’t there [at the scene]” and simply heard the allegation as second hand information."
Local restaurant owner Hicham Ben Abdallah, widely quoted across the media as having claimed Mr. Mair shouted, “Britain First” has told Breitbart London “No, no. I did not hear that”.
Update 17:40 — Labour MP Maria Eagle deletes tweet claiming killer shouted “Britain First”
These are from Breitbart - but if true then this could serious rebound on the Remain campaign a la Spanish Government on the Madrid Attacks.
And of course we have had the headlines from Europe, trying to make political capital.
I don't think this tragedy is going to influence people on how they vote (at least, I sincerely hope not - as a Remainer I want the leave campaign to be defeated, or not, based on its arguments and merits). What it will do is throw off campaign schedules for the next couple days, and given that the upcoming week will have been packed solid, approaches will be changed. I think we may see more wariness from both sides from now on, so as the other side can not accuse them of either being linked to, or trying to exploit, the campaign. To all those saying that it will stop leave momentum, be aware that it would be equally devastating for remain if a narrative were to emerge that they were trying to exploit it.
I imagine you dislike the (if US TV shows are an indication) practice of talking about young victims in terms of their academic aptitude. 'The honors student' etc, that sort of thing.
I most certainly do. Every young person is a star, a brilliant student etc, struck down with so much promise etc. I understand the impulse behind it. But it's almost as if it implies that the death of an average person with not many friends and ho hum exam results is less important. And that's not true. Most people are not stars, not even promising ones. Most of us are ordinary. But a life is a life and when it is taken away violently it is a sad loss. Ordinary is the human condition.
In the criminal law it is the act which is being punished not the fact that we have lost a future Einstein. I dislike the sentimentality which has been imported into the system, because in an odd way it seems to diminish the importance of what's happened.
And when the death is a suicide of a mentally ill young person the reports rarely say what in my experience is true - that such people can often - because of their illness be a complete pain to be with and can cause immense strain on their families, relationships, parents marriages. It is understandable that people should want to have a narrative that provides some comfort but the truth is usually a bit messier.
I'd often wondered about victim impact statements in the event of a murder.
What if no one liked the victim? What if they were a dull... of no discernible merit?
What if there is no one to speak for them? Still a tragedy in my view.
Exactly. And they are a fraud on the family. Because the sentence the judge has to pass is not affected by the statement. It's a bit of therapy for the family. And colour me callous if you will. But the courts are not the place for family therapy.
What people want is justice: for the guilty to be caught and punished. For the existence of the victim as a person to be acknowledged. And there should be other agencies to help families through their grief. Lawyers emoting in court adds nothing. Emoting is not real emotion. It is not even normal human sympathy and understanding. It's a bit of empty narcissistic play-acting.
I imagine you dislike the (if US TV shows are an indication) practice of talking about young victims in terms of their academic aptitude. 'The honors student' etc, that sort of thing.
I most certainly do. Every young person is a star, a brilliant student etc, struck down with so much promise etc. I understand the impulse behind it. But it's almost as if it implies that the death of an average person with not many friends and ho hum exam results is less important. And that's not true. Most people are not stars, not even promising ones. Most of us are ordinary. But a life is a life and when it is taken away violently it is a sad loss. Ordinary is the human condition.
In the criminal law it is the act which is being punished not the fact that we have lost a future Einstein. I dislike the sentimentality which has been imported into the system, because in an odd way it seems to diminish the importance of what's happened.
And when the death is a suicide of a mentally ill young person the reports rarely say what in my experience is true - that such people can often - because of their illness be a complete pain to be with and can cause immense strain on their families, relationships, parents marriages. It is understandable that people should want to have a narrative that provides some comfort but the truth is usually a bit messier.
I'd often wondered about victim impact statements in the event of a murder.
What if no one liked the victim? What if they were a dull... of no discernible merit?
What if there is no one to speak for them? Still a tragedy in my view.
You should've heard my dad's eulogy. What it didn't say...
Very sad about the Jo Cox tragedy, but really Westminster and the MSM are having a field day dropping sly hints about Hard Right Leavers, and shutting down planned programs as if the the Queen herself had died.
It's all going over the top and giving a chance for Remain to pause and draw breath. It's beginning to smell, and things that start to small funny turn very quickly into a big stink.
"The original claim for the “Britain First” shout was Aamir Tahir, a local dry cleaner. In the past few hours Mr. Tahir has told other news outlets that he “wasn’t there [at the scene]” and simply heard the allegation as second hand information."
Local restaurant owner Hicham Ben Abdallah, widely quoted across the media as having claimed Mr. Mair shouted, “Britain First” has told Breitbart London “No, no. I did not hear that”.
Update 17:40 — Labour MP Maria Eagle deletes tweet claiming killer shouted “Britain First”
These are from Breitbart - but if true then this could serious rebound on the Remain campaign a la Spanish Government on the Madrid Attacks.
And of course we have had the headlines from Europe, trying to make political capital.
BBC are reporting online and website, so I presume they have two independent sources etc etc etc, as they are normally very cautious on these things...unless your name is Cliff....
They are reporting it as "Put Britain First", rather than "Britain First", which is arguably worse for Leave...if you believe that people change their vote based upon such incidents.
In light of today's events, BMG are delaying their polls by 24 hours. So they will now be released at 1am Saturday.
All polling is irrelevant now until the weekend, while it does seem a bit inappropriate to look at the political consequences of today's news nonetheless while at lunchtime it was literally neck and neck, if not Leave with the narrow advantage, it is now difficult to see past a narrow Remain win but we shall see. The shooter shouting 'Britain First', allegedly, will be all over the news today and tomorrow
Fucking pave over west London and turn it into an airport. I don't care if my flat gets demolished.
If it means an end to being assaulted with pro-Heathrow propaganda every time you pass through the airport I'm all for it, but still prefer the ambition of Boris Island.
Boris island is almost completely bonkers... Apart from the fact that the alternative is half arsed attempts at minor expansions of airports.
From that point of view a 4 runway hub airport would be a great idea.
Why is Boris Island bonkers or indeed the alternative proposal for an Isle of Grain airport by Norman Foster? I'd suggest both have considerably more merit than HS2
I didn't say it was bonkers... Just almost completely.
The reason I said that is because the current claim is we need just 1 runway so building a 4 or 6 runway airport seems extreme.
Of course the reality is that we could probably do with 2 right now and before the paint is dry on the runway we'll need another so it would make sense to just go the whole hog and build a really big one.
Given that there is actually room for it the obvious place really is Gatwick.
The obvious solution is to increase Gatwick but rename it to Heathrow 2, that way everyone is happy.
Except Boris Islanders.
If HS2 is going to be so wonderful, why don't we build it half way to Birmingham and cut travel times for all those from North of there?
I don't think this tragedy is going to influence people on how they vote (at least, I sincerely hope not - as a Remainer I want the leave campaign to be defeated, or not, based on its arguments and merits). What it will do is throw off campaign schedules for the next couple days, and given that the upcoming week will have been packed solid, approaches will be changed. I think we may see more wariness from both sides from now on, so as the other side can not accuse them of either being linked to, or trying to exploit, the campaign. To all those saying that it will stop leave momentum, be aware that it would be equally devastating for remain if a narrative were to emerge that they were trying to exploit it.
"The original claim for the “Britain First” shout was Aamir Tahir, a local dry cleaner. In the past few hours Mr. Tahir has told other news outlets that he “wasn’t there [at the scene]” and simply heard the allegation as second hand information."
Local restaurant owner Hicham Ben Abdallah, widely quoted across the media as having claimed Mr. Mair shouted, “Britain First” has told Breitbart London “No, no. I did not hear that”.
Update 17:40 — Labour MP Maria Eagle deletes tweet claiming killer shouted “Britain First”
These are from Breitbart - but if true then this could serious rebound on the Remain campaign a la Spanish Government on the Madrid Attacks.
And of course we have had the headlines from Europe, trying to make political capital.
BBC are reporting online and website, so I presume they have two independent sources etc etc etc, as they are normally very cautious on these things.
There are at least two named people both claiming he said these things. For remain it's best to keep quiet, for leave it's best to distance not deny.
In light of today's events, BMG are delaying their polls by 24 hours. So they will now be released at 1am Saturday.
All polling is irrelevant now until the weekend, while it does seem a bit inappropriate to look at the political consequences of today's news nonetheless while at lunchtime it was literally neck and neck, if not Leave with the narrow advantage, it is now difficult to see past a narrow Remain win but we shall see. The shooter shouting 'Britain First', allegedly, will be all over the news today and tomorrow
There are pictures circulating on twitter of the person arrested and Farage at an anti EU rally.
Link?
There is nothing on Twitter.
I saw it on Twitter.
If true then Farage's 'violence is the next step' comments will look even more ill-judged.
I'm far from convinced Farage wants Leave to win this.
I'm far from convinced any of the Leave campaign do! All of them would be much better off with a narrow Remain win, mass resentment, Osbrown taking the rap for his economic mismanagement etc.
Temporary rules posted at Richmond Golf Club after German bombs hit the course in 1940. https://t.co/Wqr5Sm8bJq
I hope those are real. Fair play you may take cover from bombs or gunfire during competition without penalty, but pretty harsh you suffer a penalty for replaying a ball when your stroke was affected by a simultaneous bomb explosion.
BBC 10 pm news leading with witness saying he shouted 'Britain First'
Even if I thought this guy was 100% motivated by Brexit [entirely unproved at the moment] and had no mental issues [they are highly suggested at the moment], why would that change my, or anyone's, vote?
I believe a Leave vote would reduce such tensions on all sides, which is just another good reason to make sure I vote for it.
The EU is unaccountable, irreformable, has lost control, and has the smell of death about it.
We don't need a bail-out, but it's certainly time for our bale-out...
In light of today's events, BMG are delaying their polls by 24 hours. So they will now be released at 1am Saturday.
All polling is irrelevant now until the weekend, while it does seem a bit inappropriate to look at the political consequences of today's news nonetheless while at lunchtime it was literally neck and neck, if not Leave with the narrow advantage, it is now difficult to see past a narrow Remain win but we shall see. The shooter shouting 'Britain First', allegedly, will be all over the news today and tomorrow
Sorry, the polls showed a dead heat, and the result was close to a dead heat, so the shooting made how much difference?
The difference between an exact dead heat and close to a dead heat is that between victory and defeat and Giffords did survive
but she was the incumbunt and Remain didn't get shot one MP did.
Remain is the status quo vote
No it isn't.
Of course it is. The status quo doesn't mean stasis. It's like in a General Election the status quo is voting for the incumbent Government. It clearly doesn't mean that nothing will change. But it does mean that the day after the election is pretty much the same as the day before the election.
Was she? I'm not trying to be rude about her. But until a few hours ago I had never heard of her.
Her violent death is appalling. It is a tragedy for her husband and children. It is a tragedy for those who knew and loved her. But in order to pay proper regard to the serious and sad nature of what happened today it is not necessary to turn the departed into some sort of political colossus or saint. She could have been a ho-hum lazy sort of a person who never uttered a coherent sentence and it would still be an appalling death and a tragedy for her loved ones.
That does not appear to the case.
Like you, I had not heard of her until today. That is my loss.
@ITVAllegra: Girls + boys study Jo Cox. Campaigner, tireless mum, leader, mountain climber, brave, policy nerd, conversationalist, stylish. Hard as nails
I know now that's not the case. My point was that it does not matter. She will have had her good points and bad ones, too, like all of us. But the only thing that matters now is that a wife and mother is no more and that there are people who loved her who will be in pain tonight and for some time to come. There is nothing that we can do to alleviate that pain though it may be some comfort for her loved ones to know that others are sympathising with them. And there are prayers - for those who believe in them.
BBC 10 pm news leading with witness saying he shouted 'Britain First'
Even if I thought this guy was 100% motivated by Brexit [entirely unproved at the moment] and had no mental issues [they are highly suggested at the moment], why would that change my, or anyone's, vote?
I believe a Leave vote would reduce such tensions on all sides, which is just another good reason to make sure I vote for it.
The EU is unaccountable, irreformable, has lost control, and has the smell of death about it.
We don't need a bail-out, but it's certainly time for our bale-out...
It's more likely to have an effect on people who are genuinely undecided, rather than actually shifting people from one camp to the other.
BBC 10 pm news leading with witness saying he shouted 'Britain First'
Even if I thought this guy was 100% motivated by Brexit [entirely unproved at the moment] and had no mental issues [they are highly suggested at the moment], why would that change my, or anyone's, vote?
I believe a Leave vote would reduce such tensions on all sides, which is just another good reason to make sure I vote for it.
The EU is unaccountable, irreformable, has lost control, and has the smell of death about it.
We don't need a bail-out, but it's certainly time for our bale-out...
I doubt it will change any voters already voting Leave, undecideds though we shall see....
I don't think this tragedy is going to influence people on how they vote (at least, I sincerely hope not - as a Remainer I want the leave campaign to be defeated, or not, based on its arguments and merits). What it will do is throw off campaign schedules for the next couple days, and given that the upcoming week will have been packed solid, approaches will be changed. I think we may see more wariness from both sides from now on, so as the other side can not accuse them of either being linked to, or trying to exploit, the campaign. To all those saying that it will stop leave momentum, be aware that it would be equally devastating for remain if a narrative were to emerge that they were trying to exploit it.
I think that both campaigns could do with some sleep if I am being honest. In the last few days they've looked punch drunk.
I hope both sides will be very very weary of making anything of this tragedy.
There are pictures circulating on twitter of the person arrested and Farage at an anti EU rally.
Link?
There is nothing on Twitter.
I saw it on Twitter.
If true then Farage's 'violence is the next step' comments will look even more ill-judged.
I'm far from convinced Farage wants Leave to win this.
I'm far from convinced any of the Leave campaign do! All of them would be much better off with a narrow Remain win, mass resentment, Osbrown taking the rap for his economic mismanagement etc.
Farage gets to be England's Alex Salmond and keeps his MEP salary too
BBC 10 pm news leading with witness saying he shouted 'Britain First'
Even if I thought this guy was 100% motivated by Brexit [entirely unproved at the moment] and had no mental issues [they are highly suggested at the moment], why would that change my, or anyone's, vote?
I believe a Leave vote would reduce such tensions on all sides, which is just another good reason to make sure I vote for it.
The EU is unaccountable, irreformable, has lost control, and has the smell of death about it.
We don't need a bail-out, but it's certainly time for our bale-out...
I doubt it will change any voters already voting Leave, undecideds though we shall see....
A week out, if you haven't made your mind up yet, you're probably voting Remain (if you vote at all). I think Leave need a big lead going into polling day and I just don't see it.
I don't think this tragedy is going to influence people on how they vote (at least, I sincerely hope not - as a Remainer I want the leave campaign to be defeated, or not, based on its arguments and merits). What it will do is throw off campaign schedules for the next couple days, and given that the upcoming week will have been packed solid, approaches will be changed. I think we may see more wariness from both sides from now on, so as the other side can not accuse them of either being linked to, or trying to exploit, the campaign. To all those saying that it will stop leave momentum, be aware that it would be equally devastating for remain if a narrative were to emerge that they were trying to exploit it.
I think that both campaigns could do with some sleep if I am being honest. In the last few days they've looked punch drunk.
I hope both sides will be very very weary of making anything of this tragedy.
To be honest, if they shut up until next Thursday they'd be doing us all a favour. Drivel upon drivel, most of it
I'd often wondered about victim impact statements in the event of a murder.
What if no one liked the victim? What if they were a dull... of no discernible merit?
What if there is no one to speak for them? Still a tragedy in my view.
Exactly. And they are a fraud on the family. Because the sentence the judge has to pass is not affected by the statement. It's a bit of therapy for the family. And colour me callous if you will. But the courts are not the place for family therapy.
What people want is justice: for the guilty to be caught and punished. For the existence of the victim as a person to be acknowledged. And there should be other agencies to help families through their grief. Lawyers emoting in court adds nothing. Emoting is not real emotion. It is not even normal human sympathy and understanding. It's a bit of empty narcissistic play-acting.
Don't get me started on barristers in court emoting.
I hear of them describing how dastardly a crime was etc etc in opening speeches but can't help but thinking.. Who cares? What links the accused to the crime? They are no more or less guilty, and the only person interested in how evil the crime was should be the judge when it comes to sentencing. It is irrelevant to the question of guilt.
"The original claim for the “Britain First” shout was Aamir Tahir, a local dry cleaner. In the past few hours Mr. Tahir has told other news outlets that he “wasn’t there [at the scene]” and simply heard the allegation as second hand information."
Local restaurant owner Hicham Ben Abdallah, widely quoted across the media as having claimed Mr. Mair shouted, “Britain First” has told Breitbart London “No, no. I did not hear that”.
Update 17:40 — Labour MP Maria Eagle deletes tweet claiming killer shouted “Britain First”
These are from Breitbart - but if true then this could serious rebound on the Remain campaign a la Spanish Government on the Madrid Attacks.
And of course we have had the headlines from Europe, trying to make political capital.
BBC are reporting online and website, so I presume they have two independent sources etc etc etc, as they are normally very cautious on these things.
There are at least two named people both claiming he said these things. For remain it's best to keep quiet, for leave it's best to distance not deny.
Probably right - but remain definitely are NOT keeping quiet.
Tragic news about Jo Cox and shows not even our gun laws are infallible. As for the referendum it will inevitably stop the Leave momentum dead, not that that should be a major consideration today and with a week to go until polling day campaigning will halt until at least the weekend
Might have helped them a bit by killing the coverage of the Farage advert this morning - felt like it could have gone too far. On the other hand it could give Remain an opportunity to recalibrate their campaign a bit and soften it slightly.
Both sides will soften their campaigns but I cannot see Leave winning now, their momentum has gone and the killer will be seen to have supported their campaign, however unfairly
Thats a bit silly. Millions have voted by post and millions of others are not going to suddenly change their minds due to one incident however awful.
No but I think it's likely to crystallise the swingback that was inevitable to some extent.
Jo Cox was a formidable campaigner for remain and as time evolves I would expect from Corbyn down a request to labour supporters to vote remain as a tribute to her.
Was she? I'm not trying to be rude about her. But until a few hours ago I had never heard of her.
Her violent death is appalling. It is a tragedy for her husband and children. It is a tragedy for those who knew and loved her. But in order to pay proper regard to the serious and sad nature of what happened today it is not necessary to turn the departed into some sort of political colossus or saint. She could have been a ho-hum lazy sort of a person who never uttered a coherent sentence and it would still be an appalling death and a tragedy for her loved ones.
A tragic death does not become more tragic because of the virtue of the victim. If the other person who was attacked had been killed (and let us pray that he survives) and not the MP it would not make a ha'porth of difference to the tragic nature of the event.
Really until we know some more facts there is not much more to be said.
I imagine you dislike the (if US TV shows are an indication) practice of talking about young victims in terms of their academic aptitude. 'The honors student' etc, that sort of thing.
I most certainly do. Every young person is a star, a brilliant student etc, struck down with so much promise etc. I understand the impulse behind it. But it's almost as if it implies that the death of an average person with not many friends and ho hum exam results is less important. And that's not true. Most people are not stars, not even promising ones. Most of us are ordinary. But a life is a life and when it is taken away violently it is a sad loss. Ordinary is the human condition.
In the criminal law it is the act which is being punished not the fact that we have lost a future Einstein. I dislike the sentimentality which has been imported into the system, because in an odd way it seems to diminish the importance of what's happened.
And when the death is a suicide of a mentally ill young person the reports rarely say what in my experience is true - that such people can often - because of their illness be a complete pain to be with and can cause immense strain on their families, relationships, parents marriages. It is understandable that people should want to have a narrative that provides some comfort but the truth is usually a bit messier.
I'd often wondered about victim impact statements in the event of a murder.
What if no one liked the victim? What if they were a dull... of no discernible merit?
What if there is no one to speak for them? Still a tragedy in my view.
You should've heard my dad's eulogy. What it didn't say...
There are pictures circulating on twitter of the person arrested and Farage at an anti EU rally.
If that is true then I think the impact on the referendum is clear, sad to say, though it has to be stressed those pictures will need verification
Oh come on get real.....reports from neighbours say loner, lived alone, unemployed, only passed the time of day with you.....now he is a political activist.....photoshop.
To be fair just because he is disturbed, a loner, unemployable, etc. Doesn't mean he couldn't be involved in the political scene to some degree (even if it's just delivering leaflets, etc.)
We all just need to wait for the facts to emerge. Hopefully this "pause" in the campaign will take some of the heat out of things and everyone will just calm down a bit (I thought yesterday with the stuff on the Thames that as funny as it was, it could all get out of hand very easily and someone might sink)
There are pictures circulating on twitter of the person arrested and Farage at an anti EU rally.
Link?
There is nothing on Twitter.
I saw it on Twitter.
If true then Farage's 'violence is the next step' comments will look even more ill-judged.
I'm far from convinced Farage wants Leave to win this.
I'm far from convinced any of the Leave campaign do! All of them would be much better off with a narrow Remain win, mass resentment, Osbrown taking the rap for his economic mismanagement etc.
Farage gets to be England's Alex Salmond and keeps his MEP salary too
Yep. And no-one wants to be carrying the can for the recession, which we all know will come along sooner or later regardless of the outcome of the EUref. People are people. We all have our own motivations and interests.
BBC 10 pm news leading with witness saying he shouted 'Britain First'
Even if I thought this guy was 100% motivated by Brexit [entirely unproved at the moment] and had no mental issues [they are highly suggested at the moment], why would that change my, or anyone's, vote?
I believe a Leave vote would reduce such tensions on all sides, which is just another good reason to make sure I vote for it.
The EU is unaccountable, irreformable, has lost control, and has the smell of death about it.
We don't need a bail-out, but it's certainly time for our bale-out...
I doubt it will change any voters already voting Leave, undecideds though we shall see....
A week out, if you haven't made your mind up yet, you're probably voting Remain (if you vote at all). I think Leave need a big lead going into polling day and I just don't see it.
Why if your an undecided, your probably voting remain. Please explain?
BBC 10 pm news leading with witness saying he shouted 'Britain First'
Even if I thought this guy was 100% motivated by Brexit [entirely unproved at the moment] and had no mental issues [they are highly suggested at the moment], why would that change my, or anyone's, vote?
I believe a Leave vote would reduce such tensions on all sides, which is just another good reason to make sure I vote for it.
The EU is unaccountable, irreformable, has lost control, and has the smell of death about it.
We don't need a bail-out, but it's certainly time for our bale-out...
Yep the right time to employ hyperbole that the EU has the smell of death about it.
I imagine you dislike the (if US TV shows are an indication) practice of talking about young victims in terms of their academic aptitude. 'The honors student' etc, that sort of thing.
I most certainly do. Every young person is a star, a brilliant student etc, struck down with so much promise etc. I understand the impulse behind it. But it's almost as if it implies that the death of an average person with not many friends and ho hum exam results is less important. And that's not true. Most people are not stars, not even promising ones. Most of us are ordinary. But a life is a life and when it is taken away violently it is a sad loss. Ordinary is the human condition.
In the criminal law it is the act which is being punished not the fact that we have lost a future Einstein. I dislike the sentimentality which has been imported into the system, because in an odd way it seems to diminish the importance of what's happened.
And when the death is a suicide of a mentally ill young person the reports rarely say what in my experience is true - that such people can often - because of their illness be a complete pain to be with and can cause immense strain on their families, relationships, parents marriages. It is understandable that people should want to have a narrative that provides some comfort but the truth is usually a bit messier.
I'd often wondered about victim impact statements in the event of a murder.
What if no one liked the victim? What if they were a dull... of no discernible merit?
What if there is no one to speak for them? Still a tragedy in my view.
You should've heard my dad's eulogy. What it didn't say...
Sorry... Laughed out loud. My bad.
Lots of Love...
I remember sitting through it and marveling at how well it swerved all the usual adjectives
Fucking pave over west London and turn it into an airport. I don't care if my flat gets demolished.
If it means an end to being assaulted with pro-Heathrow propaganda every time you pass through the airport I'm all for it, but still prefer the ambition of Boris Island.
Boris island is almost completely bonkers... Apart from the fact that the alternative is half arsed attempts at minor expansions of airports.
From that point of view a 4 runway hub airport would be a great idea.
Why is Boris Island bonkers or indeed the alternative proposal for an Isle of Grain airport by Norman Foster? I'd suggest both have considerably more merit than HS2
I didn't say it was bonkers... Just almost completely.
The reason I said that is because the current claim is we need just 1 runway so building a 4 or 6 runway airport seems extreme.
Of course the reality is that we could probably do with 2 right now and before the paint is dry on the runway we'll need another so it would make sense to just go the whole hog and build a really big one.
Given that there is actually room for it the obvious place really is Gatwick.
The obvious solution is to increase Gatwick but rename it to Heathrow 2, that way everyone is happy.
Except Boris Islanders.
If HS2 is going to be so wonderful, why don't we build it half way to Birmingham and cut travel times for all those from North of there?
Because there is little point in going to Birmingham and changing trains (as an example from Preston, London is 2 hours 20 minutes away)... HS2's problem is that its really designed to increase capacity but couldn't be advertised as just that...
I'd often wondered about victim impact statements in the event of a murder.
What if no one liked the victim? What if they were a dull... of no discernible merit?
What if there is no one to speak for them? Still a tragedy in my view.
Exactly. And they are a fraud on the family. Because the sentence the judge has to pass is not affected by the statement. It's a bit of therapy for the family. And colour me callous if you will. But the courts are not the place for family therapy.
What people want is justice: for the guilty to be caught and punished. For the existence of the victim as a person to be acknowledged. And there should be other agencies to help families through their grief. Lawyers emoting in court adds nothing. Emoting is not real emotion. It is not even normal human sympathy and understanding. It's a bit of empty narcissistic play-acting.
Don't get me started on barristers in court emoting.
Seen too many legal dramas probably. I actually really like legal procedurals which, though of course they rely on the emotive appeal approach, have a lawyer pull off a slick point of law or interpretation to get their way.
I recall an episode of the Good Wife before I stopped watching as it got so ridiculous where one of the lawyers had been making objections before a judge who would move on without formally ruling, which the lawyer disputed, implying it was a way for the judge not to have their judgement overturned on appeal as no judgement had been made, and demanding a formal ruling.
I've no idea if that was even anything close to making sense in terms of the law in reality, but I liked the presentation of someone making a clever argument, rather than just talking about what a horrid crime was committed or how good a person the victim was or something.
BBC 10 pm news leading with witness saying he shouted 'Britain First'
Even if I thought this guy was 100% motivated by Brexit [entirely unproved at the moment] and had no mental issues [they are highly suggested at the moment], why would that change my, or anyone's, vote?
I believe a Leave vote would reduce such tensions on all sides, which is just another good reason to make sure I vote for it.
The EU is unaccountable, irreformable, has lost control, and has the smell of death about it.
We don't need a bail-out, but it's certainly time for our bale-out...
I doubt it will change any voters already voting Leave, undecideds though we shall see....
A week out, if you haven't made your mind up yet, you're probably voting Remain (if you vote at all). I think Leave need a big lead going into polling day and I just don't see it.
Why if your an undecided, your probably voting remain. Please explain?
Voting Remain - rightly or wrongly - is seen as voting for a status quo. If you're unsure of the change, you don't change. If in doubt, stick to what you (think you) know. Three out of four referendums are won by the status quo and the British, really, are a pretty conservative lot (small 'c'). Beyond the noise, that's the truth of it I think. There just aren't enough people antagonised by the EU enough yet to want to leave it. Maybe in 2017, or 2018 etc, but not at the moment.
I don't think this tragedy is going to influence people on how they vote (at least, I sincerely hope not - as a Remainer I want the leave campaign to be defeated, or not, based on its arguments and merits). What it will do is throw off campaign schedules for the next couple days, and given that the upcoming week will have been packed solid, approaches will be changed. I think we may see more wariness from both sides from now on, so as the other side can not accuse them of either being linked to, or trying to exploit, the campaign. To all those saying that it will stop leave momentum, be aware that it would be equally devastating for remain if a narrative were to emerge that they were trying to exploit it.
I think that both campaigns could do with some sleep if I am being honest. In the last few days they've looked punch drunk.
I hope both sides will be very very weary of making anything of this tragedy.
Don't need to, the media are all over it. Now making connections to pretty unsavoury organisation campaigning to leave EU, both papers and broadcast media. Even if not true the genie is out of the bottle. Only question is will the Brexit supporting press not run anything?
EDIT: just seen Daily Star, blimey, I didnt think they'd be quite so clear on it.
BBC 10 pm news leading with witness saying he shouted 'Britain First'
Even if I thought this guy was 100% motivated by Brexit [entirely unproved at the moment] and had no mental issues [they are highly suggested at the moment], why would that change my, or anyone's, vote?
I believe a Leave vote would reduce such tensions on all sides, which is just another good reason to make sure I vote for it.
The EU is unaccountable, irreformable, has lost control, and has the smell of death about it.
We don't need a bail-out, but it's certainly time for our bale-out...
We might get a Bale out on Monday if the Russians wake up and Wales don't improve...
I don't think this tragedy is going to influence people on how they vote (at least, I sincerely hope not - as a Remainer I want the leave campaign to be defeated, or not, based on its arguments and merits). What it will do is throw off campaign schedules for the next couple days, and given that the upcoming week will have been packed solid, approaches will be changed. I think we may see more wariness from both sides from now on, so as the other side can not accuse them of either being linked to, or trying to exploit, the campaign. To all those saying that it will stop leave momentum, be aware that it would be equally devastating for remain if a narrative were to emerge that they were trying to exploit it.
I think that both campaigns could do with some sleep if I am being honest. In the last few days they've looked punch drunk.
I hope both sides will be very very weary of making anything of this tragedy.
To be honest, if they shut up until next Thursday they'd be doing us all a favour. Drivel upon drivel, most of it
Well, I defended the right of people to politicize recent tragedies on the basis that, amid the worthless garbage, worthwhile comment is possible and may in some cases be desirable even if hard to hear.
I think that falls into the worthless garbage pile. The owner is pro-Brexit you say? I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but I'd doubt that headline hurts the cause, that's for sure.
BBC 10 pm news leading with witness saying he shouted 'Britain First'
Even if I thought this guy was 100% motivated by Brexit [entirely unproved at the moment] and had no mental issues [they are highly suggested at the moment], why would that change my, or anyone's, vote?
I believe a Leave vote would reduce such tensions on all sides, which is just another good reason to make sure I vote for it.
The EU is unaccountable, irreformable, has lost control, and has the smell of death about it.
We don't need a bail-out, but it's certainly time for our bale-out...
I doubt it will change any voters already voting Leave, undecideds though we shall see....
A week out, if you haven't made your mind up yet, you're probably voting Remain (if you vote at all). I think Leave need a big lead going into polling day and I just don't see it.
Comments
I am bracing myself for an increasing number of posts and speeches including phrases such as 'this is what Jo Cox was campaigning for' etc etc
However, it's possible (just possible) that they want a result of Leave 50.01% and Remain 49.99% to give a very clear verdict to the UK Government (and the EU) that they want a much better deal than what Cameron got.
That would force the EU to keep negotiating with us, and for our Government to do the same, without really being a mandate for anything more than that. Unless the EU ignored it..
I'd expect, in that eventuality, there'd be further reforms to the UK membership to align with refounding the EU treaties for the eurozone in 2017/2018, and then the Government would stand at GE2020 on a platform to endorse its "better" deal, or not.
That worries me more broadly.
Whether this impacts on the referendum will I suspect depend on whether he was just a mentally disturbed man (and as other posters have noted there are under care in the community many around) or someone associated with a right wing group.
If it's the former I suspect it will have limited impact (indeed it might hit Cameron as ultimately care in the community failures would be more associated with the government) if it's the latter it will be more significant.
Interestingly the Mail seems to be pushing the right wing link more than other papers.
Like you, I had not heard of her until today. That is my loss.
@ITVAllegra: Girls + boys study Jo Cox. Campaigner, tireless mum, leader, mountain climber, brave, policy nerd, conversationalist, stylish. Hard as nails
@KateProctorYP: Kate Proctor: My time with Jo Cox https://t.co/HiFoymRb7W
This stuff is making me think the Daily Mail is planning to come out for Remain.
Many thanks.
If someone had shot Her Majesty that might work but with someone most of us had never heard of it just looks silly and patronising
In the criminal law it is the act which is being punished not the fact that we have lost a future Einstein. I dislike the sentimentality which has been imported into the system, because in an odd way it seems to diminish the importance of what's happened.
And when the death is a suicide of a mentally ill young person the reports rarely say what in my experience is true - that such people can often - because of their illness be a complete pain to be with and can cause immense strain on their families, relationships, parents marriages. It is understandable that people should want to have a narrative that provides some comfort but the truth is usually a bit messier.
The Haven't been for a while but the Excelsior was always good
Temporary rules posted at Richmond Golf Club after German bombs hit the course in 1940. https://t.co/Wqr5Sm8bJq
I don't think it is quantifiable, just that as many have mentioned today, our brains operate in odd ways, and tangential or unconnected happenings can ultimately lay behind and influence other things - people might say their reasons for voting or are one thing, after all, but supplementaries can sometimes cast doubt on that, or that they intend to vote one way but supplementaries cast doubt on how certain that might be true. People do want to sent a message. How hard is the question. I was struck by the conclusion of this piece on the BBC:
As dark as the mood is in Brussels and beyond, it's also fervently felt in many circles that the UK referendum is a clear message that the EU must reform.
Thing is, do you believe it will?
I think whether it is narrow remain or leave will come down to how many deep down believe the EU can be made to work and needs to be sent a message, and how many no longer believe it can be made to work (I discount those who never thought it could, they won't swing the result) so it is not about sending a message.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36549883
Brussels will take that as a cue for 'more Europe' quickly before the Brits have a chance to get uppity again.
Which side of 50% the judgement falls is crucial, IMHO.
What if no one liked the victim? What if they were a dull... of no discernible merit?
What if there is no one to speak for them? Still a tragedy in my view.
The future destiny of this country is entirely disconnected from the random, tragic, death of one person a few days before the vote.
Or of a million, quite frankly...
Local restaurant owner Hicham Ben Abdallah, widely quoted across the media as having claimed Mr. Mair shouted, “Britain First” has told Breitbart London “No, no. I did not hear that”.
Update 17:40 — Labour MP Maria Eagle deletes tweet claiming killer shouted “Britain First”
These are from Breitbart - but if true then this could serious rebound on the Remain campaign a la Spanish Government on the Madrid Attacks.
And of course we have had the headlines from Europe, trying to make political capital.
What people want is justice: for the guilty to be caught and punished. For the existence of the victim as a person to be acknowledged. And there should be other agencies to help families through their grief. Lawyers emoting in court adds nothing. Emoting is not real emotion. It is not even normal human sympathy and understanding. It's a bit of empty narcissistic play-acting.
Good night.
They are reporting it as "Put Britain First", rather than "Britain First", which is arguably worse for Leave...if you believe that people change their vote based upon such incidents.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-36554791
I believe a Leave vote would reduce such tensions on all sides, which is just another good reason to make sure I vote for it.
The EU is unaccountable, irreformable, has lost control, and has the smell of death about it.
We don't need a bail-out, but it's certainly time for our bale-out...
President Obama: 44% / 34% / 22% (+10%)
Hillary Clinton: 36% / 34% / 30% (+2%)
Donald Trump: 25% / 51% / 24% (-26%)
Temporarily Ban Muslims From Entering U.S.?:
Yes: 31%
No: 62%
Threat of ISIS to U.S.:
Major Threat: 67%
Minor Threat: 15%
Not a Threat: 14%
Gun Laws Should Be:
More Strict: 57%
Less Strict: 11%
Kept as is: 29%
https://www.scribd.com/doc/315785475/CBS-News-poll-Gauging-Americans-views-on-Orlando-mass-shooting
I can see why Farage may have felt that was true but he should never have said that.
I hope both sides will be very very weary of making anything of this tragedy.
Should see Clinton maintain or even increase her leads going forward from this.
I hear of them describing how dastardly a crime was etc etc in opening speeches but can't help but thinking.. Who cares? What links the accused to the crime? They are no more or less guilty, and the only person interested in how evil the crime was should be the judge when it comes to sentencing. It is irrelevant to the question of guilt.
Clinton 44%
Trump 39%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch
Am I the only person to remember this person:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Lindh#Reaction
1) Supports Britain
2) Supports Europe
3) Supports White Supremacy
But
2) Does not support Socialist Left Wing Views
3) Extreme Political Correctness
4) Communism
4) Multi-Cultural Societies
But, don't take my word for it, take a look:
http://i.imgur.com/03TuxBd.png
Lots of Love...
We all just need to wait for the facts to emerge. Hopefully this "pause" in the campaign will take some of the heat out of things and everyone will just calm down a bit (I thought yesterday with the stuff on the Thames that as funny as it was, it could all get out of hand very easily and someone might sink)
A master class!
I recall an episode of the Good Wife before I stopped watching as it got so ridiculous where one of the lawyers had been making objections before a judge who would move on without formally ruling, which the lawyer disputed, implying it was a way for the judge not to have their judgement overturned on appeal as no judgement had been made, and demanding a formal ruling.
I've no idea if that was even anything close to making sense in terms of the law in reality, but I liked the presentation of someone making a clever argument, rather than just talking about what a horrid crime was committed or how good a person the victim was or something.
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/743554279512899588
EDIT: just seen Daily Star, blimey, I didnt think they'd be quite so clear on it.
I think that falls into the worthless garbage pile. The owner is pro-Brexit you say? I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but I'd doubt that headline hurts the cause, that's for sure.