A good article but I've still a hunch that the polls are trash, as both phone online and online methodologies are either being actively avoided by the general public and/or gamed by political activists. We will see next week.
Or Zac pulls off the shock of the century, UKIP beat the Tories in Wales and Scotland slides into a NOM with SLAB in third. I wonder what odds I can get on all of that...
Or Zac pulls off the shock of the century, UKIP beat the Tories in Wales and Scotland slides into a NOM with SLAB in third. I wonder what odds I can get on all of that...
I'd be happy with the Tories finishing second in Scotland.
Or Zac pulls off the shock of the century, UKIP beat the Tories in Wales and Scotland slides into a NOM with SLAB in third. I wonder what odds I can get on all of that...
Out a quid on Zac. If turnout is sub-35% he has a chance. Famous last words I know.
Or Zac pulls off the shock of the century, UKIP beat the Tories in Wales and Scotland slides into a NOM with SLAB in third. I wonder what odds I can get on all of that...
Put a quid on Zac. If turnout is sub-35% he has a chance. Famous last words I know.
So it would appear that the Labour Party Hate Israel...Hate America, for supporting Israel..are riddled with Anti Semites and despise the UK Military,past present and future...why do they survive
Just my personal opinion backed up by some anecdotal evidence and local observation of the campaign here in Worthing but I believe the local election results will back up the phone pollsters who have UKIP support much lower than the online pollsters . This , of course will also have a knock on effect on EU referendum polls where again the online pollsters higher Leave support is partly based on higher numbers of UKIP supporters .
The polls weren't *that* far wrong in the Sindyref nor last year at GE2015. It's just, as Alastair says, when you're looking to measure a very tight fight the polls look much worse than they are even if they're only slightly off.
The EU referendum challenge will be (a) predicting who turns out, and where, and, (b) the last minute bottling it factor.
The polls in the last fortnight, and the eve of poll numbers, will be extremely interesting.
Zac's down to 2% on Betfair, new poll coming out ?
People have had it with the Posh Boys.
You sound like a lefty class warrior. You're going to be very disappointed if Remain wins aren't you?
I'm expecting REMAIN to win after everything they've done.
In a way that's when the fun begins as we can start setting about destroying Cameron and Osborne for their treachery. We've got to see both of them humiliated and turfed out of office in disgrace.
Realistically Cameron will be off on his own terms I suppose, but we can still tear Osborne to pieces (especially if the Tories are mad enough to make him leader - Fingers crossed)
Interesting point of view. If I say that I think the SNP will win an overall majority in May, does that make me a pollster?
More difficult is the race for 2nd place. Will it be the Tories or Labour....? A pollster who calls it either way and is proved right is probably onto something. If they get it wrong, then our guess really is as good as any learned psephologist.
Or Zac pulls off the shock of the century, UKIP beat the Tories in Wales and Scotland slides into a NOM with SLAB in third. I wonder what odds I can get on all of that...
Zac will lose because he won't even turn out his own Tory base.
Virtually every Tory activist I speak to is "meh".
I assume that many polling companies are either international, or have partners in other countries, so you would expect lessons learned and adjustments made to be applied in many different places, and yet we have the recent result in Austria, a result so far wrong you wonder if they were running their questionnaires in the wrong country.
Or Zac pulls off the shock of the century, UKIP beat the Tories in Wales and Scotland slides into a NOM with SLAB in third. I wonder what odds I can get on all of that...
I'd be happy with the Tories finishing second in Scotland.
Yeah me too. Zac as well to some degree, only in that he isn't Khan or Labour.
Good piece. The only point I'd quibble with is that if the polling was accurate then although an individual poll would have a MoE of 3%, the polls collectively should be on the mark, so that kind of individual error is acceptable as long as the general methodology is right.
But yes, May 5 will give us a good roadcheck of the polls going towards June 23.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
Zac's down to 2% on Betfair, new poll coming out ?
People have had it with the Posh Boys.
You sound like a lefty class warrior. You're going to be very disappointed if Remain wins aren't you?
I'm expecting REMAIN to win after everything they've done.
In a way that's when the fun begins as we can start setting about destroying Cameron and Osborne for their treachery. We've got to see both of them humiliated and turfed out of office in disgrace.
Realistically Cameron will be off on his own terms I suppose, but we can still tear Osborne to pieces (especially if the Tories are mad enough to make him leader - Fingers crossed)
After the effort he has put in and the number of his own side he's alienated in the process, Cameron has to win big or he's likely to be toast in short order. 60-40 as a minimum to avoid a challenge over the summer?
A good article but I've still a hunch that the polls are trash, as both phone online and online methodologies are either being actively avoided by the general public and/or gamed by political activists. We will see next week.
There's also quite a bit of methodological change in them too. I've no idea what's going on.
That's only the 15 year limit which has been held to be lawful. Those of us who have been away for less than 15 years are still very much on the electoral roll.
If that case had gone the other way the referendum would have likely had to be postponed.
I also would sign up for the Patrick manifesto on the last thread. Just today we find out a taxpayer Muslim school in Luton is segregating teachers by gender. Yet it is obvious it will end the same way Islamic backwardsness always does in this country, with a tap on the wrist and the school staying open. Sadly, for the Etonian clique at the top of the Tory party this is just another issue where they talk a good game but don't see it through. Immigration is another one. We still do not have exit checks in place, after years of promises, because Cameron & co care more about PR than good policy. Then there is the walk back on trade union reform as part of a grubby deal to protect their precious EU.
I voted Conservative at the last election to get an EU referendum, but I foolishly made the assumption it would be free and fair. When Cameron gaily used our taxes to more than double the spending on his side, I felt as much a mug as I did over Tony Blair's WMD lies. UKIP clearly have their problems but hopefully if enough of us go over we can turn them into a more effective party. Unless we get a leader that wants to stop the Tories becoming New Labour Mark II, I'll be signing up for the purples.
Preet Bharara, United States attorney for the southern district of New York, said the warring gangs had a “stranglehold” over the community for over a decade, and “did not discriminate” in who they killed.
Mr. Patrick, you could always found, of co-found, such a party.
There's been a relatively rapid rise for UKIP, showing it's possible, and without being hobbled by a Faragian leader a sensible party like that could appeal to both left and right.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
Buy the way did anyone listen to Trevor Philips on R4 last night? He was great. He's lost friends over his conversion to common sense away from multi-culti PC race baiting. Huge respect for the man.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
[6] means that you get treated like dirt in the workplace in order to be treated with respect the rest of the time. Is that what you really want?
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
Mr. Patrick, no, but I did see his programme on What British Muslims Really Think (or whatever it was called). It was just an opinion poll and reporting on its (interesting) findings. Where some on Twitter got Islamophobia from is beyond me.
Or Zac pulls off the shock of the century, UKIP beat the Tories in Wales and Scotland slides into a NOM with SLAB in third. I wonder what odds I can get on all of that...
Zac will lose because he won't even turn out his own Tory base.
Virtually every Tory activist I speak to is "meh".
I still think Zac has a good chance of winning the election.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
[6] means that you get treated like dirt in the workplace in order to be treated with respect the rest of the time. Is that what you really want?
No, it means that monopoly public services are run for the benefit of their customers rather than the benefit of their staff. Same as any other company.
Buy the way did anyone listen to Trevor Philips on R4 last night? He was great. He's lost friends over his conversion to common sense away from multi-culti PC race baiting. Huge respect for the man.
I met him a few years ago at a cricket match and he was fairly forthright with his views. At the time I thought he was perhaps overcompensating given some of those he was talking to and perception of his time in position of power, but it seems that was really his opinion now.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
May I suggest a couple more?
7. Heavily restrict unskilled migration, and migration from extremist nations like Pakistan and Somalia. 8. A new independent body to regulate the BBC's blatant bias.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
Most would echo your cri de coeur. Something has to give.
Or Zac pulls off the shock of the century, UKIP beat the Tories in Wales and Scotland slides into a NOM with SLAB in third. I wonder what odds I can get on all of that...
Zac will lose because he won't even turn out his own Tory base.
Virtually every Tory activist I speak to is "meh".
Yup, and yet in a low turnout election Zac has a chance, it just shows how awful both main candidates are. If there was a strong independent like Trump, they could walk it.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
[6] means that you get treated like dirt in the workplace in order to be treated with respect the rest of the time. Is that what you really want?
No, it means that monopoly public services are run for the benefit of their customers rather than the benefit of their staff. Same as any other company.
So you think that monopoly public services are necessary, desirable or both. I don't think you believe that - can't the "free" market cure all known social problems?
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
May I suggest a couple more?
7. Heavily restrict unskilled migration, and migration from extremist nations like Pakistan and Somalia. 8. A new independent body to regulate the BBC's blatant bias.
uh-oh and now we get into the devil of the detail.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
[6] means that you get treated like dirt in the workplace in order to be treated with respect the rest of the time. Is that what you really want?
That's a strangely 'producerist' view of the world of work. You seem to be saying that in order for customers to get a good service the providers have to be forced up chimneys.
Let's take the London Underground as a talking example - what is wrong with automating it? I've been on several automated lines incl Hong Kong, airport terminal spurs, the DLR etc. They're safe. Why should the population of London suffer to pay drivers a £52k salary?
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
May I suggest a couple more?
7. Heavily restrict unskilled migration, and migration from extremist nations like Pakistan and Somalia. 8. A new independent body to regulate the BBC's blatant bias.
Nah, you don't even need to do that, just do what rcs has suggested, make immigration here cost more money, a £5000 annual surcharge for NHS insurance for non-residents, a £2500 per child per year non-resident surcharge for the education system etc... That automatically puts off all but the highest earners.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
May I suggest a couple more?
7. Heavily restrict unskilled migration, and migration from extremist nations like Pakistan and Somalia. 8. A new independent body to regulate the BBC's blatant bias.
Zac's down to 2% on Betfair, new poll coming out ?
People have had it with the Posh Boys.
You sound like a lefty class warrior. You're going to be very disappointed if Remain wins aren't you?
I'm expecting REMAIN to win after everything they've done.
In a way that's when the fun begins as we can start setting about destroying Cameron and Osborne for their treachery. We've got to see both of them humiliated and turfed out of office in disgrace.
Realistically Cameron will be off on his own terms I suppose, but we can still tear Osborne to pieces (especially if the Tories are mad enough to make him leader - Fingers crossed)
After the effort he has put in and the number of his own side he's alienated in the process, Cameron has to win big or he's likely to be toast in short order. 60-40 as a minimum to avoid a challenge over the summer?
If Remain wins - by whatever margin - Cameron and Osborne will be fine. This is reminding me of the Left's travails over unilateral disarmament in the 1980s. Yes, there was no end of abuse and bitterness whilst the argument raged, but once the view was settled everyone just shrugged and moved on. Even a die-hard unilateralist like Corbyn becoming leader hasn't revivified the matter. This will be Leave's last battle. If they lose, neither they nor anyone else will be able to summon up the energy to persevere any more.
Looks like NE has broken the story PBers were already aware of....and given that people like the Telegraph are repeating it, I presume they have a fair amount of faith in its accuracy.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
[6] means that you get treated like dirt in the workplace in order to be treated with respect the rest of the time. Is that what you really want?
That's a strangely 'producerist' view of the world of work. You seem to be saying that in order for customers to get a good service the providers have to be forced up chimneys.
Let's take the London Underground as a talking example - what is wrong with automating it? I've been on several automated lines incl Hong Kong, airport terminal spurs, the DLR etc. They're safe. Why should the population of London suffer to pay drivers a £52k salary?
Those of us who would regard automated deep level tubes as safe are paying a rent to those who don't. Remind me again how many of the London Mayoral candidates are proposing to automate the Tube...
Or Zac pulls off the shock of the century, UKIP beat the Tories in Wales and Scotland slides into a NOM with SLAB in third. I wonder what odds I can get on all of that...
Zac will lose because he won't even turn out his own Tory base.
Virtually every Tory activist I speak to is "meh".
I agree there is a lot of 'meh' and the opinion polls back that. But....
I wonder if a white MP had done the same with material saying all Muslims should be removed from Europe etc, anybody would dare to give this reaction?
Labour cannot go on trying to appeal to both Muslims and Jews. It has to choose between them. Boy, am I ever glad I left the Party!
We need to concentrate on appealing to Socialists and Social Democrats. Whatever religious nonsense they might or might not believe in.
You'll be lucky. Politics based on economic differences will always lose out to identity politics. Haven't you learnt anything from the result in Scotland last time?
Or Zac pulls off the shock of the century, UKIP beat the Tories in Wales and Scotland slides into a NOM with SLAB in third. I wonder what odds I can get on all of that...
Zac will lose because he won't even turn out his own Tory base.
Virtually every Tory activist I speak to is "meh".
Yup, and yet in a low turnout election Zac has a chance, it just shows how awful both main candidates are. If there was a strong independent like Trump, they could walk it.
Of course, Labour have only won London once, and that was by a former Independent candidate called Ken Livingstone. Frank Dobson was their first candidate and lost. Can London ever vote a Labour Mayor in? They want services, not rhetoric. Khan Khan't deliver.
Mr. Patrick, no, but I did see his programme on What British Muslims Really Think (or whatever it was called). It was just an opinion poll and reporting on its (interesting) findings. Where some on Twitter got Islamophobia from is beyond me.
He said he believes in equality. Really. And that some sections of our society don't - especially for women and religious freedom. We all know which section he was referring to.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
May I suggest a couple more?
7. Heavily restrict unskilled migration, and migration from extremist nations like Pakistan and Somalia. 8. A new independent body to regulate the BBC's blatant bias.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
'These days'? When has any party advocated all those things? 'Never' is the answer.
The same ambiguity applies when it comes to the EU. Bourne commissioned a research company called Newswatch to analyse the discussion of the EU on the Today programme between March 2004 and last June. In the monitored sample, 4,275 guests appeared to talk about the EU, of whom just 132 were in favour of British withdrawal. That’s 3.2 per cent of the total, even though opinion polls in the same period put the level of public support for withdrawal at between 33 and 50 per cent. Of those 132, some 95 were members of Ukip and over a third of the pro-Brexit contributions were from one man, Nigel Farage.
Mr. Patrick, that reminds me of what Popper said: Although Popper was an advocate of toleration, he said that intolerance should not be tolerated, for if tolerance allowed intolerance to succeed completely, tolerance would be threatened.
The same ambiguity applies when it comes to the EU. Bourne commissioned a research company called Newswatch to analyse the discussion of the EU on the Today programme between March 2004 and last June. In the monitored sample, 4,275 guests appeared to talk about the EU, of whom just 132 were in favour of British withdrawal. That’s 3.2 per cent of the total, even though opinion polls in the same period put the level of public support for withdrawal at between 33 and 50 per cent. Of those 132, some 95 were members of Ukip and over a third of the pro-Brexit contributions were from one man, Nigel Farage.
Why do you bother copy-and-pasting stuff from links? Can't you think for yourself?
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
May I suggest a couple more?
7. Heavily restrict unskilled migration, and migration from extremist nations like Pakistan and Somalia. 8. A new independent body to regulate the BBC's blatant bias.
The Fascist speaks
What is fascistic about either of those policies?
What is Fascist is your belief in your unfettered belief to define Fascism. Among other things.
I wonder if a white MP had done the same with material saying all Muslims should be removed from Europe etc, anybody would dare to give this reaction?
Labour cannot go on trying to appeal to both Muslims and Jews. It has to choose between them. Boy, am I ever glad I left the Party!
We need to concentrate on appealing to Socialists and Social Democrats. Whatever religious nonsense they might or might not believe in.
But is Socialism 2016 really compatible with sharia law? I do not think that it is. Neither is Conservatism 2016 or Liberalism 2016 compatible with sharia law.
Zac's down to 2% on Betfair, new poll coming out ?
People have had it with the Posh Boys.
You sound like a lefty class warrior. You're going to be very disappointed if Remain wins aren't you?
I'm expecting REMAIN to win after everything they've done.
In a way that's when the fun begins as we can start setting about destroying Cameron and Osborne for their treachery. We've got to see both of them humiliated and turfed out of office in disgrace.
Realistically Cameron will be off on his own terms I suppose, but we can still tear Osborne to pieces (especially if the Tories are mad enough to make him leader - Fingers crossed)
After the effort he has put in and the number of his own side he's alienated in the process, Cameron has to win big or he's likely to be toast in short order. 60-40 as a minimum to avoid a challenge over the summer?
If Remain wins - by whatever margin - Cameron and Osborne will be fine. This is reminding me of the Left's travails over unilateral disarmament in the 1980s. Yes, there was no end of abuse and bitterness whilst the argument raged, but once the view was settled everyone just shrugged and moved on. Even a die-hard unilateralist like Corbyn becoming leader hasn't revivified the matter. This will be Leave's last battle. If they lose, neither they nor anyone else will be able to summon up the energy to persevere any more.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
May I suggest a couple more?
7. Heavily restrict unskilled migration, and migration from extremist nations like Pakistan and Somalia. 8. A new independent body to regulate the BBC's blatant bias.
Nah, you don't even need to do that, just do what rcs has suggested, make immigration here cost more money, a £5000 annual surcharge for NHS insurance for non-residents, a £2500 per child per year non-resident surcharge for the education system etc... That automatically puts off all but the highest earners.
Yes, that is a simple and elegant solution.
A £5000 fee plus lack of access to eg tax credits, housing benefit would set a minimum required salary for a family at around £50k outside London, and for singles around £25k.
Mr. Patrick, that reminds me of what Popper said: Although Popper was an advocate of toleration, he said that intolerance should not be tolerated, for if tolerance allowed intolerance to succeed completely, tolerance would be threatened.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
May I suggest a couple more?
7. Heavily restrict unskilled migration, and migration from extremist nations like Pakistan and Somalia. 8. A new independent body to regulate the BBC's blatant bias.
Nah, you don't even need to do that, just do what rcs has suggested, make immigration here cost more money, a £5000 annual surcharge for NHS insurance for non-residents, a £2500 per child per year non-resident surcharge for the education system etc... That automatically puts off all but the highest earners.
My main problem with that is it lets in the richest people, not the best people. You would still have endless Russian oligarchs kids swanning around Knightsbridge, but would never see a talented Engineer from the third world, as for nurses from the Philippines, forget it, £5000 is 3 years salary.
Keiran Pedley is a Spurs fan, I therefore agree with everything he says.
TSE, who I understand is cosy with CCHQ said that Cameron estimated that 70 of his MPs would come out for Leave. This is the root problem that not just Cameron but our senior politicians in general have, they surround themselves with nodding dogs, SPADs and focus groups who tell them what they want to hear. How on earth can Cameron understand the mood of the electorate if he doesn't understand the mood of his own MPs. In fairness to Blair, he made Prescott his deputy, he represented everything Blair wasn't and acted as a weather vane.
This referendum is about far more than EU membership, its a wake up call about accountability and public service, Cameron has taken his own people for granted, they won't all forgive him.
"Since then, the pollsters have flagellated themselves, put on hair shirts and sought to uncover what exactly went wrong. They have conducted investigations, issued reports and held symposia on the subject. They have put in place corrective measures."
But have they really put in corrective measures that align with the reviews? From the couple of polls that I have looked at, they were still including too many under 25s and too few 65+ voters, in their results after weightings.
Therefore (for once) Mr Meeks may be right. The upcoming election results in 8 days time could provide an opportunity to compare with. Although will we have a reliable way of comparing NEV with the polls across GB?
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
May I suggest a couple more?
7. Heavily restrict unskilled migration, and migration from extremist nations like Pakistan and Somalia. 8. A new independent body to regulate the BBC's blatant bias.
Nah, you don't even need to do that, just do what rcs has suggested, make immigration here cost more money, a £5000 annual surcharge for NHS insurance for non-residents, a £2500 per child per year non-resident surcharge for the education system etc... That automatically puts off all but the highest earners.
Yes, that is a simple and elegant solution.
A £5000 fee plus lack of access to eg tax credits, housing benefit would set a minimum required salary for a family at around £50k outside London, and for singles around £25k.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
'These days'? When has any party advocated all those things? 'Never' is the answer.
But virtually no-one wants to vote for your eurowank.
Could this be the hinge of fate that lets Leave win the referendum.
It will probably help a little - although I wonder what % of expat adults does it cover? It might also help improve the Conservatives chances in 2020 if they get their finger out and corrrect the anomaly by the date of the next GE.
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else). 2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest). 3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else. 4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck. 5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc) 6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
May I suggest a couple more?
7. Heavily restrict unskilled migration, and migration from extremist nations like Pakistan and Somalia. 8. A new independent body to regulate the BBC's blatant bias.
Nah, you don't even need to do that, just do what rcs has suggested, make immigration here cost more money, a £5000 annual surcharge for NHS insurance for non-residents, a £2500 per child per year non-resident surcharge for the education system etc... That automatically puts off all but the highest earners.
My main problem with that is it lets in the richest people, not the best people. You would still have endless Russian oligarchs kids swanning around Knightsbridge, but would never see a talented Engineer from the third world, as for nurses from the Philippines, forget it, £5000 is 3 years salary.
Philippine nurses coming for a job would I'm sure have their employer (most likely the NHS) pay the fee as part of the hiring costs. Ditto Indian engineers, although most of them are building stuff in Dubai and Qatar right now, and earning pretty good money doing it.
Or Zac pulls off the shock of the century, UKIP beat the Tories in Wales and Scotland slides into a NOM with SLAB in third. I wonder what odds I can get on all of that...
Zac will lose because he won't even turn out his own Tory base.
Virtually every Tory activist I speak to is "meh".
I agree there is a lot of 'meh' and the opinion polls back that. But....
Undefined discussion subject.
Comments
A good article but I've still a hunch that the polls are trash, as both phone online and online methodologies are either being actively avoided by the general public and/or gamed by political activists. We will see next week.
There must be that chance he falls under a bus or gets dragged into the anti-semitism row.
I wonder if a white MP had done the same with material saying all Muslims should be removed from Europe etc, anybody would dare to give this reaction?
This , of course will also have a knock on effect on EU referendum polls where again the online pollsters higher Leave support is partly based on higher numbers of UKIP supporters .
The EU referendum challenge will be (a) predicting who turns out, and where, and, (b) the last minute bottling it factor.
The polls in the last fortnight, and the eve of poll numbers, will be extremely interesting.
I'm expecting REMAIN to win after everything they've done.
In a way that's when the fun begins as we can start setting about destroying Cameron and Osborne for their treachery. We've got to see both of them humiliated and turfed out of office in disgrace.
Realistically Cameron will be off on his own terms I suppose, but we can still tear Osborne to pieces (especially if the Tories are mad enough to make him leader - Fingers crossed)
More difficult is the race for 2nd place. Will it be the Tories or Labour....? A pollster who calls it either way and is proved right is probably onto something. If they get it wrong, then our guess really is as good as any learned psephologist.
Virtually every Tory activist I speak to is "meh".
I assume that many polling companies are either international, or have partners in other countries, so you would expect lessons learned and adjustments made to be applied in many different places, and yet we have the recent result in Austria, a result so far wrong you wonder if they were running their questionnaires in the wrong country.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36159009
But yes, May 5 will give us a good roadcheck of the polls going towards June 23.
I'm searching for a political party that will:
1. Balance the budget but do so in a way that has a reasonable balance between tax rises and spending cuts (I think we're taxed enough apart from the 0.1%) and allocates spending cuts in a fair way too (sorry rich pensioners you need to be in this together with everyone else).
2. Defend our country and our culture. (Yes I am thinking of the EU and of Islam, defence spending, overseas aid and all the rest).
3. Defend free speech. We have proscribed speech right now. Some look for 'safe spaces'. Free speech means free speech - especially the right to offend someone else.
4. Is socially liberal - I'm fine with gays, soft drugs, etc. But doesn't seek to shove PC crap down my neck.
5. Enforce the law. (Rotherham, etc)
6. Put citizens first and the establishment second. Children over teachers, passengers over tube drivers, patients over doctors, customers over unions, etc.
I have no party to vote for these days. It's depressing.
If that case had gone the other way the referendum would have likely had to be postponed.
If Ted Cruz were to win Indiana by say 0.5%, 1.2 would still probably be a bit long for Trump. His odds right now should be more like 1.07
I voted Conservative at the last election to get an EU referendum, but I foolishly made the assumption it would be free and fair. When Cameron gaily used our taxes to more than double the spending on his side, I felt as much a mug as I did over Tony Blair's WMD lies. UKIP clearly have their problems but hopefully if enough of us go over we can turn them into a more effective party. Unless we get a leader that wants to stop the Tories becoming New Labour Mark II, I'll be signing up for the purples.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/27/new-york-police-celebrate-biggest-gang-takedown-in-citys-history/
This guy has some seriously impressive takedowns over the past 5-6 years.
There's been a relatively rapid rise for UKIP, showing it's possible, and without being hobbled by a Faragian leader a sensible party like that could appeal to both left and right.
Oh - silly me.
7. Heavily restrict unskilled migration, and migration from extremist nations like Pakistan and Somalia.
8. A new independent body to regulate the BBC's blatant bias.
It took Plato a whole book, you know...
Let's take the London Underground as a talking example - what is wrong with automating it? I've been on several automated lines incl Hong Kong, airport terminal spurs, the DLR etc. They're safe. Why should the population of London suffer to pay drivers a £52k salary?
Interestingly the all time record holder for votes in a primary is Hillary Clinton with 17,857,501 back in 2008.
https://twitter.com/smashmorePH/status/725610120739229696
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/28/prince-suffered-from-aids-and-had-expected-to-die-for-a-while-us/
Ken Livingstone on @BBCRadioLondon: there's been a coordinated effort by the Israel lobby to smear any anti-Israel comments as antisemitic
and
stands by his comments he's never heard anyone say anything antisemitic in Labour
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/what-would-happen-if-rupert-murdoch-owned-the-bbc/
Although Popper was an advocate of toleration, he said that intolerance should not be tolerated, for if tolerance allowed intolerance to succeed completely, tolerance would be threatened.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Popper
A £5000 fee plus lack of access to eg tax credits, housing benefit would set a minimum required salary for a family at around £50k outside London, and for singles around £25k.
http://spiegel.de/international/europe/a-1089536.html
Keiran Pedley is a Spurs fan, I therefore agree with everything he says.
TSE, who I understand is cosy with CCHQ said that Cameron estimated that 70 of his MPs would come out for Leave. This is the root problem that not just Cameron but our senior politicians in general have, they surround themselves with nodding dogs, SPADs and focus groups who tell them what they want to hear. How on earth can Cameron understand the mood of the electorate if he doesn't understand the mood of his own MPs. In fairness to Blair, he made Prescott his deputy, he represented everything Blair wasn't and acted as a weather vane.
This referendum is about far more than EU membership, its a wake up call about accountability and public service, Cameron has taken his own people for granted, they won't all forgive him.
But have they really put in corrective measures that align with the reviews? From the couple of polls that I have looked at, they were still including too many under 25s and too few 65+ voters, in their results after weightings.
Therefore (for once) Mr Meeks may be right. The upcoming election results in 8 days time could provide an opportunity to compare with. Although will we have a reliable way of comparing NEV with the polls across GB?
Expats lose referendum vote legal bid
Could this be the hinge of fate that lets Leave win the referendum.
Also, writing a bit and forgot I'd copied something new. Just had a brief mention of Princess Karl Popper after I pasted, expecting a lady's name
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/725616081608531968
"Rebecca was aware"
Was I joking??
There are millions of decent people who support Labour, they don't give a fuck about medieval beliefs.