God help us if Miliband actually gets a majority. Not sure which is worse though Miliband majority or assortment of left parties in coalition.
My thoughts (FWTW):-
1. EdM has not been as bad as some have predicted. This is not a surprise to me. 2. The Tory campaign - to the extent that I've noticed it - has been, at best, mediocre. Postal votes will be going out shortly and the Tories have largely been silent. 3. Fallon's personal attack today was a mistake. There is a legitimate debate to make about Trident and a possible SNP-Lab arrangement but defeating David Milliband in the Labour leadership contest had nothing to do with it. It detracted from Fallon's argument and made him look petty. The only person who has any right to complain about how Ed behaved in relation to that is David. Not the Tories. 4. The Tories are right to focus on having a strong economy but do not appear to understand that having a strong economy is not the same as doing whatever very rich people want you to do. Nor do they appear to understand that people want a strong economy to work for them. Labour do appear to understand this or at least talk about this, even if I think they have no clue on the economy. The Tories are talking as if their audience were economists. Labour are talking as if their audience were ordinary voters.
If the Tories want to win they have to get out there, all of them, not just rely on a few photo ops of Cameron and some farm animal.
As to the result, I'm not hazarding a guess - yet - though I have assumed for some time now that Labour will be in government. Frankly, if they are I'd prefer a majority Labour government rather than some unstable coalition with the SNP, PC, Greens and others. I don't think we can assume that another coalition would be as smoothly run or as stable as this one has, all things considered, been.
From recollection (I could be wrong, as it was 5 years ago), didn't the Conservatives blow a 10 point Opinion Poll lead in run into 2010 General Election.
This is what you get, when a political party is stuffed with so many beneficiaries of the UK's privilege (unfairness) system - these people from privilege system actually believe their breeding makes them superior then the rest of us? We, who have spent decades at eking out and grafting for whatever talents that bring us joy or greater productive outcomes in life.
These privileged posh toffs, in 2010 General Election performed a panic dump of their entire 2010 General Election Strategy and spent the last 2 weeks desperately trying to win back their core vote on an old fashion campaign of immigration reductions and promises of reducing taxes (oops, didn't they promise their core vote no VAT rises). LOL, over the last 5 years they shattered both policy option directions to their own core vote.
These privileged (unfairness) posh toffs, believed importing an Australian GE expert, since when are Australians a match for brightest of each generation of UK citizens. The UK has produced many great citizen's of knowledge, such as Isaac Newton and Thomas Paine, to date the Australians have produce no noteworthy man of knowledge. The Conservatives chose this as opposed to the humiliating (loss of face) in admitting to the citizenry (electorate) that they needed some of those (unclean and badly bred) working class geniuses, because their paper qualifications from Oxford were not the same as eking and grafting at a brightness in life.
Furthermore, Conservative return to old fashioned Credit Expansion for boom and bust policy option as their Austerity Program publicly showed only stagnation and recession effects (contrary to their 2010 GE promises) necessitated another importation of a Canadian Central Bank expert. Again, the Conservatives chose this, as opposed, to the humiliating (loss of face) in admitting to the citizenry (electorate) that they needed some of those (unclean and badly bred) working class geniuses in government. Mark Carney's claim to fame today, is he was the architect of the Canada's Credit Expansion Boom and Bust option - Canada is currently in the bust side of that cycle.
Not much of political party and their individuals exude the worst characteristics of human egotism.
Can I bore everyone by pointing out that this is ONLY TWO POLLS? and appeal for calm. We must husband our resources for all the shrieking and hand-waving with which we will greet the 4 point Lab lead in Yougov later on. Or not.
My thoughts exactly!
Every time there is a poll one way or another people on here think it is all over, spout their tribal bollocks whilst others change their bets yet again.
It's absolutely laughable.
Jodie Kidd saying "500 horsepower" would be pretty 18+.
All those Tories linking to Guido all day and the agenda being set by the Sun Mail Telegraph and Times which encourages the likes of Michael Fallon to behave in a way that would embarrass Michael Gove has allowed Labour to take the moral high ground of niceness.
Unbelievable really. The Tories should be romping home. I still sense a German extra time here. England play them off the park and they win on penalties but at least Labour aren't making it easy
His proudest achievement will be the formation of ukip.
So long as the tories don't retoxify under a new leader, splitting off the idiot fringe into a separate party has finally made the blues electable.
Just not in 2015.
That is actually a historical achievement for David Cameron, last time that the Tory party split was over the Corn Laws in 1846. And it's a historical first for the Tory party to split towards the right.
So he will have a place in history after all.
That is just such nonsense. Ukip voters are NOT all former tory voters, and two defecting backbenchers is not a split of the parliamentary party. Such a split may come, but it will be via a new eurosceptic party. Bernard Jenkin will not join Ukip.
Can you find when in modern British history something like UKIP has happened before?
And we all know it would never have happened, if Cameron didn't win the Tory leadership in 2005.
His proudest achievement will be the formation of ukip.
So long as the tories don't retoxify under a new leader, splitting off the idiot fringe into a separate party has finally made the blues electable.
Just not in 2015.
That is actually a historical achievement for David Cameron, last time that the Tory party split was over the Corn Laws in 1846. And it's a historical first for the Tory party to split towards the right.
So he will have a place in history after all.
That is just such nonsense. Ukip voters are NOT all former tory voters, and two defecting backbenchers is not a split of the parliamentary party. Such a split may come, but it will be via a new eurosceptic party. Bernard Jenkin will not join Ukip.
Can you find when in modern British history something like UKIP has happened before?
And we all know it would never have happened, if Cameron didn't win the Tory leadership in 2005.
Its just a killer isn't it? Can you imagine Maggie in 1979 having stats like that? No way no way no way. Ok so a few victories later she lost the plot but she knew the price of a loaf of bread and some.
I don't think Cameron listens to people outside his Eton clique. I'm really not kidding. Lots of insiders have said it. He shouldve put more than half state educated down to earth people in his inner circle.
''Its just a killer isn't it? Can you imagine Maggie in 1979 having stats like that? No way no way no way.''
That said I don't think that many people think ed miliband is on the side of ordinary people, either. There is zero love for him from the working classes.
A decent plebian Thatcherite would be hammering him.
"The reason all of that failed was because the Tories did it without explaining it to the public."
Exactly right. Tony would have softened the public up first. Articles after article about the cost of the higher rate tax in friendly newspapers. The Mirror running stories about nice, cuddly people emigrating and cancelling plans for industrial expansion because they paid 50p. After a few months, Tony would announce it as a cunning wheeze to profit all taxpayers and link it to increasing the basic allowance.
George and Dave brought it out and expected gratitude from the plebs. Politicians? They haven't a clue.
Boris would have done the same as Tony and got away with it despite being posh..
Speedy The League of Empire Loyalists? Of course the Tories are still ahead on the newsnight seat projector despite these 2 bad polls today, unless other polls tonight and over the weekend confirm clear Labour leads they should not panic yet https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/586244229497761792
Of course Netanyahu went into the last Israeli election narrowly behind in the polls but squeezed the vote of rightwing parties to come out on top, Cameron will need to squeeze UKIP in the same way
I don't think Cameron listens to people outside his Eton clique. I'm really not kidding. Lots of insiders have said it. He shouldve put more than half state educated down to earth people in his inner circle.
Bullingdon. Osborne went to St Paul's. A fact that he was constantly reminded of when in Bullingdon according to reports from other members.
Tim Montgomerie ن @montie 16m16 minutes ago Genuine question: What would you do to rejig the Tory campaign? I'm preparing a (short term political) plan.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 5m5 minutes ago @montie you're 100% sure it needs rejigging? (ps, two more polls to come tonight)
Tim Montgomerie ن @montie 16m16 minutes ago Genuine question: What would you do to rejig the Tory campaign? I'm preparing a (short term political) plan.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 5m5 minutes ago @montie you're 100% sure it needs rejigging? (ps, two more polls to come tonight)
"The reason all of that failed was because the Tories did it without explaining it to the public."
Exactly right. Tony would have softened the public up first. Articles after article about the cost of the higher rate tax in friendly newspapers. The Mirror running stories about nice, cuddly people emigrating and cancelling plans for industrial expansion because they paid 50p. After a few months, Tony would announce it as a cunning wheeze to profit all taxpayers and link it to increasing the basic allowance.
George and Dave brought it out and expected gratitude from the plebs. Politicians? They haven't a clue.
Boris would have done the same as Tony and got away with it despite being posh..
Yup. Blair and Mandy knew how to do it. The current crop of Tories are a bunch of pygmy's in comparison. No clue and no balls.
Tim Montgomerie ن @montie 16m16 minutes ago Genuine question: What would you do to rejig the Tory campaign? I'm preparing a (short term political) plan.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 5m5 minutes ago @montie you're 100% sure it needs rejigging? (ps, two more polls to come tonight)
Tim Montgomerie ن @montie 16m16 minutes ago Genuine question: What would you do to rejig the Tory campaign? I'm preparing a (short term political) plan.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 5m5 minutes ago @montie you're 100% sure it needs rejigging? (ps, two more polls to come tonight)
@MaxPB: best poster of the week (and I'm not even thinking about his experiences in Zurich)
Perhaps you or your dad might know but do the political parties ever make use of PB ?
For example Richard Nabavi and DavidL make a better case for the Conservatives than they are able to do themselves.
While the likes of MaxPB offers the sort of intelligent and well meaning critique that they need to read.
With PB, and the internet generally, there's far more 'talent' available than in previous decades.
Yet the parties seem increasingly to turn inward to their Notting Hill / Dartmouth Park comfort zones.
Richard and David would make excellent Conservative spokesmen. Particular kudos to David who continued canvassing when the polls showed a surge towards Scottish independence. Being steadfast in what looks like a lost cause takes moral courage.
I don't think Cameron listens to people outside his Eton clique. I'm really not kidding. Lots of insiders have said it. He shouldve put more than half state educated down to earth people in his inner circle.
Balls! Lynton Crosby is at the heart of the campaign. Hardly Eton/Bullingdon!
Javid, Gove and Hammond are all part of the core campaign.
I don't think Cameron listens to people outside his Eton clique. I'm really not kidding. Lots of insiders have said it. He shouldve put more than half state educated down to earth people in his inner circle.
Lynton Crosby is at the heart of the campaign. Hardly Eton/Bullingdon!
I was going to add that they should've had a brit not aussie running the campaign but this was about the last 5 years not the election itself. Its this on which they're being judged.
First a disclaimer - I am Conservative member and voter. I am also something of a political animal, following things closely, yet I have struggled to get caught up in the campaign; it is hard to see what is taking place.
I do follow polls, but I also base a lot on my gut, which I why I would be a poor gambler probably!! I am convinced not many people are really thinking about the election at all yet. I am sure there will be a tipping point, but when Easter holidays are still ongoing I am not convinced it is yet.
I think the first week of the campaign was the Conservatives and the second week (this one) has been Labour's but neither have dealt a knock-out blow. We are essentially pretty tied and my view is that unless something marked takes place this will last until the last few days of the campaign. I then expect the Conservatives to see their votes come out more consistently, and in the right places than their opponents.
Ultimately the Conservatives have the best strategy - long term economic plan and competence vs. chaos. They have planted that in the voters minds months and months ago, while Labour have not got a real narrative. Yes Miliband has some populist policies but they don't make a coherent governing agenda and the government and Cameron specifically are not unpopular enough to helping Labour independently here either (as Brown's unpopularity helped the Cons in 2010).
But I do think the Conservatives need to fight more on policy and less on Miliband. That case has been made to the public (that he is not fit to be PM) and they should move on to policy and future direction for the country. I can only hope that from the manifesto launch on Monday the Conservatives have some consistent economic vote winners.
Last week I made a prediction on facebook for vote share which I stick with:
Conservative 37% Labour 32% UKIP 11% Lib Dem 10% Greens 5% Others 5%
David Cameron to remain PM but in anything from a Con majority, to Con minority, to Lib-Con coalition. I remain happy with this prediction.
Richard,who would you like as the next tory leader ? if the tories lose the GE.
Probably none of the possible contenders.
Someone with empathy towards those different to himself. Someone who understands that before you spend you first have to earn. Someone who understands that a good law upheld is better than a dozen laws flouted.
Hearing not all polls out tonight are quite so bad for Conservatives
Splendid. Still leaves the Tories needing to develop a clear lead, but could give them some reason to hope. Though not 'quite so bad' could mean many things. A lead in one of them at least would be best.
Hearing not all polls out tonight are quite so bad for Conservatives
Splendid. Still leaves the Tories needing to develop a clear lead, but could give them some reason to hope. Though not 'quite so bad' could mean many things. A lead in one of them at least would be best.
To be fair, we've had plenty of polls hyped way out of proportions in the past!
I don't think Cameron listens to people outside his Eton clique. I'm really not kidding. Lots of insiders have said it. He shouldve put more than half state educated down to earth people in his inner circle.
Lynton Crosby is at the heart of the campaign. Hardly Eton/Bullingdon!
I was going to add that they should've had a brit not aussie running the campaign but this was about the last 5 years not the election itself. Its this on which they're being judged.
Aussies can be brutally effective, as any cricketer knows. And also understand British working class culture quite well. The popularity of Australians and Australian culture in the UK is pretty clear.
Whilst the thread obsesses about the next parliament, which will only last for a paltry five years, we should not forget the really important story of the day, one whose effects will last for possibly a hundred years and will be visible every day:
Whilst the thread obsesses about the next parliament, which will only last for a paltry five years, we should not forget the really important story of the day, one whose effects will last for possibly a hundred years and will be visible every day:
Whilst the thread obsesses about the next parliament, which will only last for a paltry five years, we should not forget the really important story of the day, one whose effects will last for possibly a hundred years and will be visible every day:
Dear, dear. A few Tory supporters have made themselves look a bit silly this afternoon. Threatening to leave the country, wanting to cash out their equities, railing against ignorant voters, and so on. And just because of two polls, one of which is a Panelbase!!!
This election is close. Labour is facing wipeout in Scotland and needs 35 plus gains elsewhere just to stand still. The chances are the Tories will get most seats; they could, just possibly, squeak an overall majority.
The Tory campaign has been dreadful, but Dave is still favourite to be PM come June.
Dear, dear. A few Tory supporters have made themselves look a bit silly this afternoon. Threatening to leave the country, wanting to cash out their equities, railing against ignorant voters, and so on. And just because of two polls, one of which is a Panelbase!!!
This election is close. Labour is facing wipeout in Scotland and needs 35 plus gains elsewhere just to stand still. The chances are the Tories will get most seats; they could, just possibly, squeak an overall majority.
The Tory campaign has been dreadful, but Dave is still favourite to be PM come June.
Being excited by polls is part and parcel of being a PB Tory
I think the first week of the campaign was the Conservatives and the second week (this one) has been Labour's but neither have dealt a knock-out blow. We are essentially pretty tied and my view is that unless something marked takes place this will last until the last few days of the campaign. I then expect the Conservatives to see their votes come out more consistently, and in the right places than their opponents.
Ultimately the Conservatives have the best strategy - long term economic plan and competence vs. chaos. They have planted that in the voters minds months and months ago, while Labour have not got a real narrative. Yes Miliband has some populist policies but they don't make a coherent governing agenda and the government and Cameron specifically are not unpopular enough to helping Labour independently here either (as Brown's unpopularity helped the Cons in 2010).
Last week I made a prediction on facebook for vote share which I stick with:
Conservative 37% Labour 32% UKIP 11% Lib Dem 10% Greens 5% Others 5%
David Cameron to remain PM but in anything from a Con majority, to Con minority, to Lib-Con coalition. I remain happy with this prediction.
I don't think the campaign is going to change many minds. The election result will be in line with the past 12 months polling.
Con: low thirties Lab: mid-thirties LD: <10% UKIP: high teens.
Whilst the thread obsesses about the next parliament, which will only last for a paltry five years, we should not forget the really important story of the day, one whose effects will last for possibly a hundred years and will be visible every day:
Whilst the thread obsesses about the next parliament, which will only last for a paltry five years, we should not forget the really important story of the day, one whose effects will last for possibly a hundred years and will be visible every day:
Dear, dear. A few Tory supporters have made themselves look a bit silly this afternoon. Threatening to leave the country, wanting to cash out their equities, railing against ignorant voters, and so on. And just because of two polls, one of which is a Panelbase!!!
This election is close. Labour is facing wipeout in Scotland and needs 35 plus gains elsewhere just to stand still. The chances are the Tories will get most seats; they could, just possibly, squeak an overall majority.
The Tory campaign has been dreadful, but Dave is still favourite to be PM come June.
I must admit I was one of them and I'm not even a tory - lol
Whilst the thread obsesses about the next parliament, which will only last for a paltry five years, we should not forget the really important story of the day, one whose effects will last for possibly a hundred years and will be visible every day:
Yep, and far less interesting from a structural engineering viewpoint.
(As an aside, some (ahem) associates once persuaded people that we were erecting a high-tension pylon in someone's back garden. They, and the council, were not impressed with the joke).
Note: I am not a member of the Pylon Appreciation Society. Although they have used a couple of my pictures:
Dear, dear. A few Tory supporters have made themselves look a bit silly this afternoon. Threatening to leave the country, wanting to cash out their equities, railing against ignorant voters, and so on. And just because of two polls, one of which is a Panelbase!!!
This election is close. Labour is facing wipeout in Scotland and needs 35 plus gains elsewhere just to stand still. The chances are the Tories will get most seats; they could, just possibly, squeak an overall majority.
The Tory campaign has been dreadful, but Dave is still favourite to be PM come June.
Remember the reaction to the Cleggasm! I took anti-depressants at the time. There's never actually been a general election campaign I've enjoyed.
I think the first week of the campaign was the Conservatives and the second week (this one) has been Labour's but neither have dealt a knock-out blow. We are essentially pretty tied and my view is that unless something marked takes place this will last until the last few days of the campaign. I then expect the Conservatives to see their votes come out more consistently, and in the right places than their opponents.
Ultimately the Conservatives have the best strategy - long term economic plan and competence vs. chaos. They have planted that in the voters minds months and months ago, while Labour have not got a real narrative. Yes Miliband has some populist policies but they don't make a coherent governing agenda and the government and Cameron specifically are not unpopular enough to helping Labour independently here either (as Brown's unpopularity helped the Cons in 2010).
Last week I made a prediction on facebook for vote share which I stick with:
Conservative 37% Labour 32% UKIP 11% Lib Dem 10% Greens 5% Others 5%
David Cameron to remain PM but in anything from a Con majority, to Con minority, to Lib-Con coalition. I remain happy with this prediction.
I don't think the campaign is going to change many minds. The election result will be in line with the past 12 months polling.
Con: low thirties Lab: mid-thirties LD:
UKIP will not get high teens, more like 10/11% with the vast majority of the rest going back to the Tories, taking them to the 37% mentioned above.
Dear, dear. A few Tory supporters have made themselves look a bit silly this afternoon. Threatening to leave the country, wanting to cash out their equities, railing against ignorant voters, and so on. And just because of two polls, one of which is a Panelbase!!!
This election is close. Labour is facing wipeout in Scotland and needs 35 plus gains elsewhere just to stand still. The chances are the Tories will get most seats; they could, just possibly, squeak an overall majority.
The Tory campaign has been dreadful, but Dave is still favourite to be PM come June.
Being excited by polls is part and parcel of being a PB Tory
Absolutely! I still recall with unfaded joy those evenings on here during the run up to the 2010 election:
Dear, dear. A few Tory supporters have made themselves look a bit silly this afternoon. Threatening to leave the country, wanting to cash out their equities, railing against ignorant voters, and so on. And just because of two polls, one of which is a Panelbase!!!
This election is close. Labour is facing wipeout in Scotland and needs 35 plus gains elsewhere just to stand still. The chances are the Tories will get most seats; they could, just possibly, squeak an overall majority.
The Tory campaign has been dreadful, but Dave is still favourite to be PM come June.
Being excited by polls is part and parcel of being a PB Tory
The most consistent poll finding is the LDs on 7-8, and with the lowest certainty to vote. This is about 1/3 of the 22% in 2010. No amount of personal vote will help in that tsunami.
Jacks ARSE predicts 30, Newsnight 28, I tipped 28 a month ago, but now I am thinking SLAB type losses. Mid teens of seats most likely.
"Bullingdon. Osborne went to St Paul's. A fact that he was constantly reminded of when in Bullingdon according to reports from other members."
Who but Ossie would want to join a club where they didn't want him!
It seems that according to motor mouth Tom Newton Dunn YouGov are showing a Tory lead......
So can I just be the first to say that I was just thinking how well their campaign was going.......
I still think the Tories are going to lose. Lab+SNP will be more than 326. Their campaign literally has nothing positive about it. They are not giving floating voters a reason to vote Tory other than "Ed Miliband is (a) shit".
Whilst the thread obsesses about the next parliament, which will only last for a paltry five years, we should not forget the really important story of the day, one whose effects will last for possibly a hundred years and will be visible every day:
From the picture, they remind me (incorrectly) of wind turbine pylons. So the answer is simple: have lines of wind turbines that carry the power cables!
I think the first week of the campaign was the Conservatives and the second week (this one) has been Labour's but neither have dealt a knock-out blow. We are essentially pretty tied and my view is that unless something marked takes place this will last until the last few days of the campaign. I then expect the Conservatives to see their votes come out more consistently, and in the right places than their opponents.
Ultimately the Conservatives have the best strategy - long term economic plan and competence vs. chaos. They have planted that in the voters minds months and months ago, while Labour have not got a real narrative. Yes Miliband has some populist policies but they don't make a coherent governing agenda and the government and Cameron specifically are not unpopular enough to helping Labour independently here either (as Brown's unpopularity helped the Cons in 2010).
Last week I made a prediction on facebook for vote share which I stick with:
Conservative 37% Labour 32% UKIP 11% Lib Dem 10% Greens 5% Others 5%
David Cameron to remain PM but in anything from a Con majority, to Con minority, to Lib-Con coalition. I remain happy with this prediction.
I don't think the campaign is going to change many minds. The election result will be in line with the past 12 months polling.
Con: low thirties Lab: mid-thirties LD:
UKIP will not get high teens, more like 10/11% with the vast majority of the rest going back to the Tories, taking them to the 37% mentioned above.
Dear, dear. A few Tory supporters have made themselves look a bit silly this afternoon. Threatening to leave the country, wanting to cash out their equities, railing against ignorant voters, and so on. And just because of two polls, one of which is a Panelbase!!!
This election is close. Labour is facing wipeout in Scotland and needs 35 plus gains elsewhere just to stand still. The chances are the Tories will get most seats; they could, just possibly, squeak an overall majority.
The Tory campaign has been dreadful, but Dave is still favourite to be PM come June.
Being excited by polls is part and parcel of being a PB Tory
To be fair - all sets of supporters on here get carried away by the latest poll published - even when the previous one actually has later fieldwork. Also I think OGH encourages this - it helps to keep the site buzzing. Hence his provocative tweets to keep the pot well stirred.
Interesting that it's leaked out that the Tories tried to organise a doctors' NHS letter, the words 'piss-up' and 'brewery' come to mind. Hopefully will be the end of letter writing from both parties, and they stop acting like 19th century simpering aristocrats and expressing everything through sodding letters.
I missed the whole day. Did any Tory say Edward Samuel Miliband back stab his brother. Some Tories still come from the landed classes. The Elder son will get everything and the other son will go a fetch for himself.
Dear, dear. A few Tory supporters have made themselves look a bit silly this afternoon. Threatening to leave the country, wanting to cash out their equities, railing against ignorant voters, and so on. And just because of two polls, one of which is a Panelbase!!!
This election is close. Labour is facing wipeout in Scotland and needs 35 plus gains elsewhere just to stand still. The chances are the Tories will get most seats; they could, just possibly, squeak an overall majority.
The Tory campaign has been dreadful, but Dave is still favourite to be PM come June.
Being excited by polls is part and parcel of being a PB Tory
Absolutely! I still recall with unfaded joy those evenings on here during the run up to the 2010 election:
Wibbly wobbly Tory bottoms!
Cameron. Promise an EU referendum. NOW.
Osborne has to go.
That Michael Crick really is a ...
The Tories didn't win in 2010. They do not have a majority. If Dave had axed George in favour of Ken or Hammond they would have eked over the line with ~330.
Whilst the thread obsesses about the next parliament, which will only last for a paltry five years, we should not forget the really important story of the day, one whose effects will last for possibly a hundred years and will be visible every day:
Yep, and far less interesting from a structural engineering viewpoint.
(As an aside, some (ahem) associates once persuaded people that we were erecting a high-tension pylon in someone's back garden. They, and the council, were not impressed with the joke).
Note: I am not a member of the Pylon Appreciation Society. Although they have used a couple of my pictures:
Guardian taking a bit of a risk here given we have two polls to go today
All about trying to maintain momentum. Could backfire though, as it implies a vote for SNP is less dangerous since there'll be a majority anyway. Similar for UKIP voters going back to the Tories.
Modern tories may reflect, with some bitterness, that the public only turns to them when the country is in dire straights.
1979. 2010.
Its a horrible position to be in.
Yep & the country turn to Labour when we want to lighten up a bit. Thats where Cameron & Osborne have gone so disastrously wrong.
Being successful as a person or as a country requires constant effort. Lefties don't have the intestinal fortitude to keep building. They think that the government should periodically give them more for less effort.
First a disclaimer - I am Conservative member and voter. I am also something of a political animal, following things closely, yet I have struggled to get caught up in the campaign; it is hard to see what is taking place.
I do follow polls, but I also base a lot on my gut, which I why I would be a poor gambler probably!! I am convinced not many people are really thinking about the election at all yet. I am sure there will be a tipping point, but when Easter holidays are still ongoing I am not convinced it is yet.
... ... ...
There is too much hyperventilating about polls, especially over easter. The trends of polls can be significant but given the admitted margin for error then with what is effectively a 4 party system at the moment I wonder what it is the polls are picking up. Plus we have all the adjustments and the method of collecting polls. (Do telephone polls differentiate between mobile and land line?) and the fact that some are self selecting panels. I know this has all been discussed before but its then ignored. Is it the public that are more volatile or the polls. If the public are as you suggest actually less interested (or maybe more cynical) then the polls may be inventing volatility.
In terms of campaigning tactics I do wonder, what is the best choice - to treat the public as intelligent or gormless?
Dear, dear. A few Tory supporters have made themselves look a bit silly this afternoon. Threatening to leave the country, wanting to cash out their equities, railing against ignorant voters, and so on. And just because of two polls, one of which is a Panelbase!!!
This election is close. Labour is facing wipeout in Scotland and needs 35 plus gains elsewhere just to stand still. The chances are the Tories will get most seats; they could, just possibly, squeak an overall majority.
The Tory campaign has been dreadful, but Dave is still favourite to be PM come June.
Panelbase/TNS/Survation really couldn't be a worse trifecta for the Tories. Tonight's ComRes and YouGov may soothe.
1) I've never been quite sure that a preserved railway should be a charity.
2) To give a real impression of post-war railways, they should put in just a few broken panes in that will fall out in a gust of wind, and allow the frame to rust. That's how many canopies were from the 1940s to the 1970s. Add in broken tarmac on the platform surface, with small trees growing out of it, and it would be perfect. (At least from all the photos I've seen).
3) Why was what looks like a paper company providing glass? Or was it to be something other than glass?
Dear, dear. A few Tory supporters have made themselves look a bit silly this afternoon. Threatening to leave the country, wanting to cash out their equities, railing against ignorant voters, and so on. And just because of two polls, one of which is a Panelbase!!!
This election is close. Labour is facing wipeout in Scotland and needs 35 plus gains elsewhere just to stand still. The chances are the Tories will get most seats; they could, just possibly, squeak an overall majority.
The Tory campaign has been dreadful, but Dave is still favourite to be PM come June.
Being excited by polls is part and parcel of being a PB Tory
The most consistent poll finding is the LDs on 7-8, and with the lowest certainty to vote. This is about 1/3 of the 22% in 2010. No amount of personal vote will help in that tsunami.
Jacks ARSE predicts 30, Newsnight 28, I tipped 28 a month ago, but now I am thinking SLAB type losses. Mid teens of seats most likely.
And I am an LD member...
LD will not get more than 22.Maybe, just maybe only 1 in Scotland [ I mean Kennedy ]. But SLAB could creep up to 16
Dear, dear. A few Tory supporters have made themselves look a bit silly this afternoon. Threatening to leave the country, wanting to cash out their equities, railing against ignorant voters, and so on. And just because of two polls, one of which is a Panelbase!!!
This election is close. Labour is facing wipeout in Scotland and needs 35 plus gains elsewhere just to stand still. The chances are the Tories will get most seats; they could, just possibly, squeak an overall majority.
The Tory campaign has been dreadful, but Dave is still favourite to be PM come June.
Panelbase/TNS/Survation really couldn't be a worse trifecta for the Tories.
For the absolute numbers, yes, but the same isn't true for the changes from the previous poll.
Well things could get worse for the Tories tonight if the movement is replicated by the 2 polls left, or by Farage being on the TV claiming the moral high ground by saying something like " I think Miliband may have bad policies but is not a bad person ect" .
Pity I have to be out for the next hour so I wont be able to see the other polls as they come out.
Comments
1. EdM has not been as bad as some have predicted. This is not a surprise to me.
2. The Tory campaign - to the extent that I've noticed it - has been, at best, mediocre. Postal votes will be going out shortly and the Tories have largely been silent.
3. Fallon's personal attack today was a mistake. There is a legitimate debate to make about Trident and a possible SNP-Lab arrangement but defeating David Milliband in the Labour leadership contest had nothing to do with it. It detracted from Fallon's argument and made him look petty. The only person who has any right to complain about how Ed behaved in relation to that is David. Not the Tories.
4. The Tories are right to focus on having a strong economy but do not appear to understand that having a strong economy is not the same as doing whatever very rich people want you to do. Nor do they appear to understand that people want a strong economy to work for them. Labour do appear to understand this or at least talk about this, even if I think they have no clue on the economy. The Tories are talking as if their audience were economists. Labour are talking as if their audience were ordinary voters.
If the Tories want to win they have to get out there, all of them, not just rely on a few photo ops of Cameron and some farm animal.
As to the result, I'm not hazarding a guess - yet - though I have assumed for some time now that Labour will be in government. Frankly, if they are I'd prefer a majority Labour government rather than some unstable coalition with the SNP, PC, Greens and others. I don't think we can assume that another coalition would be as smoothly run or as stable as this one has, all things considered, been.
Did you see any of her own written comedy series on bbc 2,it was cancelled after first series.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Huppert
Unbelievable really. The Tories should be romping home. I still sense a German extra time here. England play them off the park and they win on penalties but at least Labour aren't making it easy
The Tories' problem has been to be regarded as the party of the rich, for the rich. That is still the case.
Mr Cameron courting rich Guardianista's, and disdaining poor Clacton-type voters just reinforced that image.
"Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
The Conservative Party is more on the side of wealthy people: 66%
The Conservative Party is more on the side of ordinary people: 19%"
p.41
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Full-Mirror-IV-Tables.pdf
And we all know it would never have happened, if Cameron didn't win the Tory leadership in 2005.
For example Richard Nabavi and DavidL make a better case for the Conservatives than they are able to do themselves.
While the likes of MaxPB offers the sort of intelligent and well meaning critique that they need to read.
With PB, and the internet generally, there's far more 'talent' available than in previous decades.
Yet the parties seem increasingly to turn inward to their Notting Hill / Dartmouth Park comfort zones.
I don't think Cameron listens to people outside his Eton clique. I'm really not kidding. Lots of insiders have said it. He shouldve put more than half state educated down to earth people in his inner circle.
That said I don't think that many people think ed miliband is on the side of ordinary people, either. There is zero love for him from the working classes.
A decent plebian Thatcherite would be hammering him.
"The reason all of that failed was because the Tories did it without explaining it to the public."
Exactly right. Tony would have softened the public up first. Articles after article about the cost of the higher rate tax in friendly newspapers. The Mirror running stories about nice, cuddly people emigrating and cancelling plans for industrial expansion because they paid 50p. After a few months, Tony would announce it as a cunning wheeze to profit all taxpayers and link it to increasing the basic allowance.
George and Dave brought it out and expected gratitude from the plebs. Politicians? They haven't a clue.
Boris would have done the same as Tony and got away with it despite being posh..
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/586244229497761792
Of course Netanyahu went into the last Israeli election narrowly behind in the polls but squeezed the vote of rightwing parties to come out on top, Cameron will need to squeeze UKIP in the same way
Tim Montgomerie ن @montie 16m16 minutes ago
Genuine question: What would you do to rejig the Tory campaign? I'm preparing a (short term political) plan.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 5m5 minutes ago
@montie you're 100% sure it needs rejigging? (ps, two more polls to come tonight)
Dan Hodges ✔ @DPJHodges
@montie ...I suppose keeping a sense of perspective is out of the question...
Javid, Gove and Hammond are all part of the core campaign.
Jeremy Cliffe @JeremyCliffe
Hearing not all polls out tonight are quite so bad for Conservatives
Certainly these polls reminded everyone that Lab majority at 50 or w/e was 50 shades of wrong though.
First a disclaimer - I am Conservative member and voter. I am also something of a political animal, following things closely, yet I have struggled to get caught up in the campaign; it is hard to see what is taking place.
I do follow polls, but I also base a lot on my gut, which I why I would be a poor gambler probably!! I am convinced not many people are really thinking about the election at all yet. I am sure there will be a tipping point, but when Easter holidays are still ongoing I am not convinced it is yet.
I think the first week of the campaign was the Conservatives and the second week (this one) has been Labour's but neither have dealt a knock-out blow. We are essentially pretty tied and my view is that unless something marked takes place this will last until the last few days of the campaign. I then expect the Conservatives to see their votes come out more consistently, and in the right places than their opponents.
Ultimately the Conservatives have the best strategy - long term economic plan and competence vs. chaos. They have planted that in the voters minds months and months ago, while Labour have not got a real narrative. Yes Miliband has some populist policies but they don't make a coherent governing agenda and the government and Cameron specifically are not unpopular enough to helping Labour independently here either (as Brown's unpopularity helped the Cons in 2010).
But I do think the Conservatives need to fight more on policy and less on Miliband. That case has been made to the public (that he is not fit to be PM) and they should move on to policy and future direction for the country. I can only hope that from the manifesto launch on Monday the Conservatives have some consistent economic vote winners.
Last week I made a prediction on facebook for vote share which I stick with:
Conservative 37%
Labour 32%
UKIP 11%
Lib Dem 10%
Greens 5%
Others 5%
David Cameron to remain PM but in anything from a Con majority, to Con minority, to Lib-Con coalition. I remain happy with this prediction.
Someone with empathy towards those different to himself.
Someone who understands that before you spend you first have to earn.
Someone who understands that a good law upheld is better than a dozen laws flouted.
It's interesting that the YouGov Scottish poll hasn't been hyped, maybe it isn't actually that newsworthy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32225276
This election is close. Labour is facing wipeout in Scotland and needs 35 plus gains elsewhere just to stand still. The chances are the Tories will get most seats; they could, just possibly, squeak an overall majority.
The Tory campaign has been dreadful, but Dave is still favourite to be PM come June.
Tim Montgomerie ن ✔ @montie
@DPJHodges The strategy has changed regularly in last five years. Even a few months ago immigration was to be at its heart
Dan Hodges ✔ @DPJHodges
@montie That's a tactic. Strategy has been consistent. Economy. Ed. Economy. Ed. And it's the right strategy.
Con: low thirties
Lab: mid-thirties
LD: <10%
UKIP: high teens.
I would only be speculating.
But he probably knows people on the embargoed list.
I've been described as a human starting gun for movements on the betting markets, so I'm not saying anything else until 10pm
(PS I've not seen an embargoed copy)
Millionaire from Miliband lol
I think they look fine.
(As an aside, some (ahem) associates once persuaded people that we were erecting a high-tension pylon in someone's back garden. They, and the council, were not impressed with the joke).
Note: I am not a member of the Pylon Appreciation Society. Although they have used a couple of my pictures:
http://www.pylons.org/
"Bullingdon. Osborne went to St Paul's. A fact that he was constantly reminded of when in Bullingdon according to reports from other members."
Who but Ossie would want to join a club where they didn't want him!
It seems that according to motor mouth Tom Newton Dunn YouGov are showing a Tory lead......
So can I just be the first to say that I was just thinking how well their campaign was going.......
http://www.eastlancsrailway.org.uk/plan-your-day-out/latest-news/blog/2015/4/company-crash-knocks-steam-railway-project-off-the-tracks.aspx
Wibbly wobbly Tory bottoms!
Cameron. Promise an EU referendum. NOW.
Osborne has to go.
That Michael Crick really is a ...
Jacks ARSE predicts 30, Newsnight 28, I tipped 28 a month ago, but now I am thinking SLAB type losses. Mid teens of seats most likely.
And I am an LD member...
No point getting excited. There's weeks to go until the big day, and then we can all see whether it lives to expectations.
Still, I must admit to being nervous.
After all, The Witcher 3's been delayed already.
Guardian taking a bit of a risk here given we have two polls to go today
I missed the whole day. Did any Tory say Edward Samuel Miliband back stab his brother. Some Tories still come from the landed classes. The Elder son will get everything and the other son will go a fetch for himself.
https://uk.images.search.yahoo.com/search/images;_ylt=A9mSs2s.3SZVpUgAXalLBQx.;_ylu=X3oDMTBsYWhiN2NvBHNlYwNzYwRjb2xvA2lyMgR2dGlkAw--?_adv_prop=image&fr=mcafee&va=pylons+iceland
Plus we have all the adjustments and the method of collecting polls. (Do telephone polls differentiate between mobile and land line?) and the fact that some are self selecting panels.
I know this has all been discussed before but its then ignored. Is it the public that are more volatile or the polls. If the public are as you suggest actually less interested (or maybe more cynical) then the polls may be inventing volatility.
In terms of campaigning tactics I do wonder, what is the best choice - to treat the public as intelligent or gormless?
Mr. Flightpath, quite. Getting giddy is silly.
2) To give a real impression of post-war railways, they should put in just a few broken panes in that will fall out in a gust of wind, and allow the frame to rust. That's how many canopies were from the 1940s to the 1970s. Add in broken tarmac on the platform surface, with small trees growing out of it, and it would be perfect. (At least from all the photos I've seen).
3) Why was what looks like a paper company providing glass? Or was it to be something other than glass?
e.g.:
http://www.disused-stations.org.uk/b/bakewell/bakewell(stationsuk1947)old1.jpg
Pity I have to be out for the next hour so I wont be able to see the other polls as they come out.
Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil
After 3 bad polls for Tories, Tory High Command nervously awaits YouGov poll 22.30 tonight. If also bad prepare for headless chicken time