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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB moves to 4% lead with Survation and Ed now ahead of Dav

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    Moses_ said:

    Look

    We are going to get an Ed clusterfuck government

    Anyone with any shrewd intellect will have already and certainly now be calculating how to steer clear of the final Labour catastrophe.

    To any lefties I worked fecking hard for my skills and my money, my business and those I do employ.

    I am not ever again going to let Labour use that money in a public urinal.

    Exodus?

    Hope he does not hit his erse on the way out the halfwit , pity anyone employed by such a numpty
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    felix said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    I've not noticed you condemn Ed 's oft repeated attacks on Cameron and Osborne because of their background over which they have no control.
    Again, the attacks on Dave work because he doesn't own his poshness. He needs to just say, fuck it, the people will accept me as a posho Eaton toff or they won't. His "man of the people" act comes across has highly inauthentic and it opens him up to attacks like this. If he was comfortable with his background, like Boris, or even Ed seems to have become, then attacking him would be met with reactions of "so what?" instead of "I've eaten a pasty at a station where they aren't sold".

    Dave is good in a crisis and he is the guy I would prefer answering the phone at 2am when Russia invades Finland, but that isn't going to save him.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    malcolmg said:

    really not convinced that Ed is attacking the rich.. Cracking down on tax dodging and some trifling changes to employment rights. Once upon a time the top rate of tax was 95% and the unions controlled nationalised industries. The rich survived that period so I'm sure they can survive 5 years of Ed

    No the rich didn't survive that period, the rich emigrated and took their money with them - paying no taxes to the UK.

    Even famous left-wing idols like John Lennon emigrated away from the UK removing all taxes with them.
    bollox
    Truth.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    malcolmg said:

    really not convinced that Ed is attacking the rich.. Cracking down on tax dodging and some trifling changes to employment rights. Once upon a time the top rate of tax was 95% and the unions controlled nationalised industries. The rich survived that period so I'm sure they can survive 5 years of Ed

    No the rich didn't survive that period, the rich emigrated and took their money with them - paying no taxes to the UK.

    Even famous left-wing idols like John Lennon emigrated away from the UK removing all taxes with them.
    bollox
    Talking of bollox,did you watch the Scottish leaders debate last night,if so,your thoughts on the impartial james cook ;-)

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Can I bore everyone by pointing out that this is ONLY TWO POLLS? and appeal for calm. We must husband our resources for all the shrieking and hand-waving with which we will greet the 4 point Lab lead in Yougov later on. Or not.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    kle4 said:


    If Ed gets into No 10 he is going to find it a lot harder peddling his loony policies in No 10 than out of..

    I have always thought that people expecting a radical Ed M in No.10 would be surprised. Things are not flexible enough to allow that, and a seasoned political animal like Ed knows that I am sure.

    As such, he'll probably not be a disaster as PM either, merely kind of crappy, which is all most of us hope for from our PMs I think,
    I very much agree with that.

    I also think the Conservatives might have made a strategic error today by going so personal about Ed Milliband.
    If they do similar attacks over the Milliband family, like the Daily Mail, then it can give him the opportunity, as today, to look better in many peoples eyes, than their original perceptions, seen through the lenses of the press.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    felix said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    I've not noticed you condemn Ed 's oft repeated attacks on Cameron and Osborne because of their background over which they have no control.
    Quite!!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    We're not 'top Tories', and we do not run a deficit. In fact, we're likely to pay off the remainder of our mortgage this year, so we'll be debt-free. All because we're stingy gits who don't spend a great deal. And we're managing on one (albeit reasonable) salary.

    And the country is not a household budget.

    Try again.
    But are you happy
    I've spent the day out in the sunshine with my nine-month old baby, or as much time as I thought his skin could handle.

    Hell yes, I'm happy.

    Happier than a miserable, nasty Scotsman, at least.
    Away you numpty you don't even know me, I am not a stingy pompous git and I am happy even though I had to work hard. Some people have to work to support the slackers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    chestnut said:

    This is all very reminiscent of the Sunday before last.

    In that the size of the predcited Labour win may be overexaggerated due to excitement/fear at the new polls, but the fact of that likely win still seems hard to dispute?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    Ishmael_X said:

    Can I bore everyone by pointing out that this is ONLY TWO POLLS? and appeal for calm. We must husband our resources for all the shrieking and hand-waving with which we will greet the 4 point Lab lead in Yougov later on. Or not.

    Don't forget ComRes!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015
    Ishmael_X said:

    Can I bore everyone by pointing out that this is ONLY TWO POLLS? and appeal for calm. We must husband our resources for all the shrieking and hand-waving with which we will greet the 4 point Lab lead in Yougov later on. Or not.

    It's part of a trend of increasingly poor polls for the tories though.

    OK, these polls may be at the extreme end of the scale but the fact remains nearly all polls point to Cam and the Tories being turfed out in less than a month.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    edited April 2015

    malcolmg said:

    really not convinced that Ed is attacking the rich.. Cracking down on tax dodging and some trifling changes to employment rights. Once upon a time the top rate of tax was 95% and the unions controlled nationalised industries. The rich survived that period so I'm sure they can survive 5 years of Ed

    No the rich didn't survive that period, the rich emigrated and took their money with them - paying no taxes to the UK.

    Even famous left-wing idols like John Lennon emigrated away from the UK removing all taxes with them.
    bollox
    Talking of bollox,did you watch the Scottish leaders debate last night,if so,your thoughts on the impartial james cook ;-)

    rubbish as ever, he was like a lost soul in the middle , no control and everybody shouting over each other , bit dire. BBC really messed up with putting him in the middle, crazy idea.

    PS: he is typical of BBC Scotland , useless. All the good ones get sacked.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Now all we know there`s zero chance of getting a Labour majority.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    Pulpstar said:


    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.
    Oh please God no.

    Another southern Oxbridge numpty's about the last thing the Conservatives need.
    Indeed, the Conservatives need to win seats north of Watford.
    That appears to be a revelation to most PB Tories.
    Their mentality is 'never mind the quantity feel the quality'.

    Did you notice the dismal trade figures today ?

    What was noticeable was the huge upward revision in last month's deficit.

    The one that Osborne was boasting as being the "smallest for fifteen years". Even though it wasn't.

    I wonder if Osborne has had anything to say about today's release.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    I wouldn't bother with the usual wings spin on this, I was actually around on twitter last night and saw this whole sorry but totally predictable nasty witch hunt unfold in real time. Didn't we see enough of this during the Independence Referendum?!
    Carnyx said:

    I haven't been around today. Have the nats here apologised for perpetuating the lies and bullying about that girl who asked the question in the scottish debate?

    Have a look at Wings over Scotland for a rather different story.



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    fitalass said:

    I wouldn't bother with the usual wings spin on this, I was actually around on twitter last night and saw this whole sorry but totally predictable nasty witch hunt unfold in real time. Didn't we see enough of this during the Independence Referendum?!

    Carnyx said:

    I haven't been around today. Have the nats here apologised for perpetuating the lies and bullying about that girl who asked the question in the scottish debate?

    Have a look at Wings over Scotland for a rather different story.



    The lies ain't coming from the Nats in this GE campaign.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    Oh my God... you're linking a tweet from there?

    Invite back the real thing instead
    Is that tim's account ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516

    Pulpstar said:


    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to
    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.
    Oh please God no.

    Another southern Oxbridge numpty's about the last thing the Conservatives need.
    Indeed, the Conservatives need to win seats north of Watford.
    That appears to be a revelation to most PB Tories.
    Their mentality is 'never mind the quantity feel the quality'.

    Did you notice the dismal trade figures today ?

    What was noticeable was the huge upward revision in last month's deficit.

    The one that Osborne was boasting as being the "smallest for fifteen years". Even though it wasn't.

    I wonder if Osborne has had anything to say about today's release.
    All those imports are a sign of success in GO land.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    edited April 2015
    fitalass said:

    I wouldn't bother with the usual wings spin on this, I was actually around on twitter last night and saw this whole sorry but totally predictable nasty witch hunt unfold in real time. Didn't we see enough of this during the Independence Referendum?!

    Carnyx said:

    I haven't been around today. Have the nats here apologised for perpetuating the lies and bullying about that girl who asked the question in the scottish debate?

    Have a look at Wings over Scotland for a rather different story.



    Oops darkness approaching , Tories getting out of their crypts to do a bit of surging.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited April 2015

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    'Every household in Britain' - I doubt it. Most people aren't that stupid.
    Most people don't have the choice.

    See this is where the tories are a million miles from ordinary voters
    People have choices. Anyone who smokes, drinks, gambles, buys drugs, eats takeaway food or eats out at a restaurant etc is making a choice. Running a surplus for a rainy day is the sane way to run your finances.
    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    'The great unwashed who smoke, drink, gamble, buy drugs, eat takeaway food etc.'

    The nasty party has certainly been out in force today, and 'out' is the way they're heading if they don't start speaking for ordinary people.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    'Every household in Britain' - I doubt it. Most people aren't that stupid.
    Most people don't have the choice.

    See this is where the tories are a million miles from ordinary voters
    Most people do have the choice. My income is nothing special and my wife's not working since we had a baby but we have always cut our cloth according to our income and save for a rainy day. I've as a rule saved some income on every payday since I was 17 and on minimum wage.

    People have choices. Anyone who smokes, drinks, gambles, buys drugs, eats takeaway food or eats out at a restaurant etc is making a choice. Running a surplus for a rainy day is the sane way to run your finances.
    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    'The great unwashed who smoke, drink, gamble, buy drugs, eat takeaway food etc.'

    The nasty party has certainly been out in force today, and 'out' is the way they're heading if they don't start speaking for ordinary people.
    The turnip toffs would not know how to
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Ishmael_X said:

    Can I bore everyone by pointing out that this is ONLY TWO POLLS? and appeal for calm. We must husband our resources for all the shrieking and hand-waving with which we will greet the 4 point Lab lead in Yougov later on. Or not.

    I think you are missing the point - sure this is only 2 polls, and if there is a bad one or two for the Tories later it is still only 4 polls, but at best that would mean the overall trend is still that the Tories are about tied, and they cannot win on that and time is running out to change that. So the only hopes become a late swing to the Tories - not impossible but increasingly hard to see why that would be the case when the reasons for it, Ed M being seen and heard etc, have not worked yet - or the polls are just totally wrong - also not impossible but not something they want to be relying on at this stage.

    It's significant because even a 4 pt Tory lead later would not change the picture from 'generally a tie', and the Tories are the ones who need the picture to change. Labour would like these 2 polls to be true, but they don't need them to be true to still win.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:



    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    You won't find any argument from me. The Tories have been politically naive over the last couple of days. They need to give the country something positive a vision of Britain that people can look forwards to. Last time Dave was pimping his big society vision, it may not have been my cup of tea, but it was at least something. This time they are too bogged down in facts and statistics which just turns people off, plus a bunch of negative attacks on Ed which, again, just turns people off.

    The Tories are missing Steve Hilton big time IMO.

    Whatever people say about Labour and Ed, he is still giving people a vision of Britain, a poorer but fairer country where the wealthy are less so, but his 35% are comfortable with that and they don't seem to care that it means more taxes for everyone else and the Tories are doing literally nothing to give an opposing vision of wealth creation and positive capitalism. I said it some time last year, but the Tories seem to be scared of being capitalist and they are running away from wealth creation. It is a very big mistake. Yes social media will howl and whine if Dave and George come out in favour of it, but they will do that whatever the weather. Middle England wants wealth creation, Dave needs to offer it.
    Indeed.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Its hilarious some pple are touting Boris, hilarious on two counts. First as said below to overreact to a couple of easter hols polls is a bit silly.

    Its also hilarious second because the last thing the tories would need is another tory toff. They need a state educated leader who doesn't speak of ordinary people by peering down his posh nose and sneering at the 'great unwashed'. They're your people tories. Lose them you lose the election. Maggie knew it. Major knew it.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2015
    kle4 said:

    In that the size of the predcited Labour win may be overexaggerated due to excitement/fear at the new polls, but the fact of that likely win still seems hard to dispute?

    In the fact that the wild excitement that greeted a four point labour lead quickly dissipated as a Tory 4 point lead promptly followed.

    Opinion polls are the equivalent of taking a penalty kick in training, whereas elections are your one shot at taking the decider v Germany in front of 90,000 people.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    Look

    We are going to get an Ed clusterfuck government

    Anyone with any shrewd intellect will have already and certainly now be calculating how to steer clear of the final Labour catastrophe.

    To any lefties I worked fecking hard for my skills and my money, my business and those I do employ.

    I am not ever again going to let Labour use that money in a public urinal.

    Exodus?

    Already started mate. When sense returns so will the business.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    Now here's a thought.

    The Conservative strategy has been 'when voters get in the polling booth they'll imagine PM EdM, panic and vote Conservative'.

    But what if the campaign makes the electorate approve of EdM much more.

    Instead of this predicted last minute swing to the Conservatives we get a last minute swing to Labour ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    chestnut said:

    kle4 said:

    In that the size of the predcited Labour win may be overexaggerated due to excitement/fear at the new polls, but the fact of that likely win still seems hard to dispute?

    In the fact that the wild excitement that greeted a four point labour lead quickly dissipated as a Tory 4 point lead promptly followed.
    I can assure you I for one will still be predicting a Lab win if the next polls show a Tory 4 pt lead. Much as I would prefer that sort of poll, the Tories need a whole bunch of them before the outcome would change.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    What Cameron and Osborne do now defines their political careers.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    MaxPB said:


    You won't find any argument from me. The Tories have been politically naive over the last couple of days. They need to give the country something positive a vision of Britain that people can look forwards to. Last time Dave was pimping his big society vision, it may not have been my cup of tea, but it was at least something. This time they are too bogged down in facts and statistics which just turns people off, plus a bunch of negative attacks on Ed which, again, just turns people off.

    The Tories are missing Steve Hilton big time IMO.

    Whatever people say about Labour and Ed, he is still giving people a vision of Britain, a poorer but fairer country where the wealthy are less so, but his 35% are comfortable with that and they don't seem to care that it means more taxes for everyone else and the Tories are doing literally nothing to give an opposing vision of wealth creation and positive capitalism. I said it some time last year, but the Tories seem to be scared of being capitalist and they are running away from wealth creation. It is a very big mistake. Yes social media will howl and whine if Dave and George come out in favour of it, but they will do that whatever the weather. Middle England wants wealth creation, Dave needs to offer it.

    You've been in sparkling form today. This is my favorite in a series of very sharp posts this afternoon from Max.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:



    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.

    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    You won't find any argument from me. The Tories have been politically naive over the last couple of days. They need to give the country something positive a vision of Britain that people can look forwards to. Last time Dave was pimping his big society vision, it may not have been my cup of tea, but it was at least something. This time they are too bogged down in facts and statistics which just turns people off, plus a bunch of negative attacks on Ed which, again, just turns people off.

    The Tories are missing Steve Hilton big time IMO.

    Whatever people say about Labour and Ed, he is still giving people a vision of Britain, a poorer but fairer country where the wealthy are less so, but his 35% are comfortable with that and they don't seem to care that it means more taxes for everyone else and the Tories are doing literally nothing to give an opposing vision of wealth creation and positive capitalism. I said it some time last year, but the Tories seem to be scared of being capitalist and they are running away from wealth creation. It is a very big mistake. Yes social media will howl and whine if Dave and George come out in favour of it, but they will do that whatever the weather. Middle England wants wealth creation, Dave needs to offer it.
    Indeed.
    Great

    How much Is this ideology costing you.

    Probably zero. Make sure you know where your Jon centre is you are gonna need that information ishortly.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    edited April 2015
    I think these leads reflect a short term anger with the Conservatives which I can well understand. Most people aren't multi millionaire businessmen and most of us don't see them as masters of the universe. Speaking for myself being lectured to by 103 letter signing businessmen almost persuaded me to take to the campaign trail.....They need someone like Steve Hilton who doesn't share the Hoorey Henry Cameron/Guido/Clarkson world view.

    (Having said that no one has the power of recovery like the Tories....)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.
    I can't see anyone being able to unite Ukip and Lib Dem voters. Boris simly won't be able to get away with being a pro-EU, illegal immigrant amnesty one-nation Tory darling of the right for long. He'll have to choose.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Its hilarious some pple are touting Boris, hilarious on two counts. First as said below to overreact to a couple of easter hols polls is a bit silly.

    Its also hilarious second because the last thing the tories would need is another tory toff. They need a state educated leader who doesn't speak of ordinary people by peering down his posh nose and sneering at the 'great unwashed'. They're your people tories. Lose them you lose the election. Maggie knew it. Major knew it.

    Boris will be the next Tory leader
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:


    If Ed gets into No 10 he is going to find it a lot harder peddling his loony policies in No 10 than out of..

    I have always thought that people expecting a radical Ed M in No.10 would be surprised. Things are not flexible enough to allow that, and a seasoned political animal like Ed knows that I am sure.

    As such, he'll probably not be a disaster as PM either, merely kind of crappy, which is all most of us hope for from our PMs I think,
    More terrifyingly, he could be really good...

    That would be nice. I cannot say I'm encouraged to believe that based on what we've seen from him, but I do think Tories attempting to console themselves that they will definitely in win in 2020 at least, should Ed win in 2015, should not be too certain of that - it is predicated on the assumption Ed is a fool and will be a disaster, which as I say seems unlikely to be so extreme a reaction.
    I think if Labour win in May then the Tories will be back in 2020. Ed is basically promising no austerity and the numbers won't add up. Labour will have to bring in a raft of stealth taxes and freeze the tax free thresholds at £10600 and £44000 to increase the tax base, dragging low income people into the income tax net and a few million middle income people into the higher tax band. I think UKIP as a movement will subside and a lot of the right will shift back to the Tories in opposition with Boris as leader and I think the Lib Dems in opposition will shift a few votes back in their favour. We will be back to 2008-9 but for five years with Labour getting hammered by a poorly performing economy and disappointing their core voters by implementing cuts.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    chestnut said:

    kle4 said:

    In that the size of the predcited Labour win may be overexaggerated due to excitement/fear at the new polls, but the fact of that likely win still seems hard to dispute?

    In the fact that the wild excitement that greeted a four point labour lead quickly dissipated as a Tory 4 point lead promptly followed.

    Opinion polls are the equivalent of taking a penalty kick in training, whereas elections are your one shot at taking the decider v Germany in front of 90,000 people.
    Not the greatest analogy as penalty kicks in training are almost certainly more accurate than those taken under pressure
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    isam said:

    Its hilarious some pple are touting Boris, hilarious on two counts. First as said below to overreact to a couple of easter hols polls is a bit silly.

    Its also hilarious second because the last thing the tories would need is another tory toff. They need a state educated leader who doesn't speak of ordinary people by peering down his posh nose and sneering at the 'great unwashed'. They're your people tories. Lose them you lose the election. Maggie knew it. Major knew it.

    Boris will be the next Tory leader
    If he is he won't be the next tory prime minister
  • TomTom Posts: 273
    In the day when heaven was falling,the hour when earth’s foundations fled Malcolm G turns up to call someone an absolute fanny and set the world back on its axis. Thank you.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    First time that Ed Miliband is more popular than David Cameron.

    The Tories put all their eggs on that basket and predictably they are losing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:


    If Ed gets into No 10 he is going to find it a lot harder peddling his loony policies in No 10 than out of..

    I have always thought that people expecting a radical Ed M in No.10 would be surprised. Things are not flexible enough to allow that, and a seasoned political animal like Ed knows that I am sure.

    As such, he'll probably not be a disaster as PM either, merely kind of crappy, which is all most of us hope for from our PMs I think,
    More terrifyingly, he could be really good...

    That would be nice. I cannot say I'm encouraged to believe that based on what we've seen from him, but I do think Tories attempting to console themselves that they will definitely in win in 2020 at least, should Ed win in 2015, should not be too certain of that - it is predicated on the assumption Ed is a fool and will be a disaster, which as I say seems unlikely to be so extreme a reaction.
    I think if Labour win in May then the Tories will be back in 2020. Ed is basically promising no austerity and the numbers won't add up. Labour will have to bring in a raft of stealth taxes and freeze the tax free thresholds at £10600 and £44000 to increase the tax base, dragging low income people into the income tax net and a few million middle income people into the higher tax band. I think UKIP as a movement will subside and a lot of the right will shift back to the Tories in opposition with Boris as leader and I think the Lib Dems in opposition will shift a few votes back in their favour. We will be back to 2008-9 but for five years with Labour getting hammered by a poorly performing economy and disappointing their core voters by implementing cuts.
    I think the Tories would win in 2020, but it's just not as certain as some Tories think, and if they sleepwalk their response to this loss, they don't have the advantages Labour has had in this parliament that means they have not been punished with their own laziness since 2010.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    I have heard that before.
    Canada 1993, the Tories say the Liberal leader is unfit to be PM because he looks weird, the Liberals won by a landslide:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PikszBkfTHM
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    I wonder if Dave needs to start worrying about his legacy ?

    Alan what do you think his legacy will be, if in a month he has gone ?



  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    'Every household in Britain' - I doubt it. Most people aren't that stupid.
    Most people don't have the choice.

    See this is where the tories are a million miles from ordinary voters
    People have choices. Anyone who smokes, drinks, gambles, buys drugs, eats takeaway food or eats out at a restaurant etc is making a choice. Running a surplus for a rainy day is the sane way to run your finances.
    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    'The great unwashed who smoke, drink, gamble, buy drugs, eat takeaway food etc.'

    The nasty party has certainly been out in force today, and 'out' is the way they're heading if they don't start speaking for ordinary people.
    Its not remotely nasty to say what I said. I eat and drink. I love a good Nando's, but I won't buy a Nando's if I can't afford it.

    If you think that makes me out of touch, so be it. I think paying interest is wasted money and I'm being sensible not out of touch. If I have an extra Nando's today that I can't afford then next month I will have to spend money paying legalised loan sharks rather than buying more chicken. I'd rather not spend on interest payments.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Tom said:

    In the day when heaven was falling,the hour when earth’s foundations fled Malcolm G turns up to call someone an absolute fanny and set the world back on its axis. Thank you.

    Plus 158 billion (Billion) barrels of oil discovered on shore under the weald near Gatwick . 15‰ can be extracted equal to about half that from North server 40 years. (BBC)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Hate to rain on the Tories' parade some more, but just saw this on John Rentoul's Twitter.

    When the "Don't Knows" were FORCED to choose who they were leaning towards in last night's YouGov:

    29% Labour
    21% UKIP
    19% Conservatives
    13% Greens
    10% Lib Dems
    8% Other
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Speedy said:

    First time that Ed Miliband is more popular than David Cameron.

    The Tories put all their eggs on that basket and predictably they are losing.

    Wonder if we may look back to couple of big game changers. One was the rubbish budget when Cam & Osb didn't realise ordinary people needed a sweetener to brighten up a tough 5 years.

    The other was when Paxo got personal. Miliband did really well. Better than well. Made Paxo look stupid.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    My betting advice today would be - if you are long Lab Min/ajority, get a touch of cover on Lib-Lab ;)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Its hilarious some pple are touting Boris, hilarious on two counts. First as said below to overreact to a couple of easter hols polls is a bit silly.

    Its also hilarious second because the last thing the tories would need is another tory toff. They need a state educated leader who doesn't speak of ordinary people by peering down his posh nose and sneering at the 'great unwashed'. They're your people tories. Lose them you lose the election. Maggie knew it. Major knew it.

    Boris is the kind of toff the public like.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Is there a debate or something on tonight? What channel is it on if so? Just flicking through but can't find anything.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044

    Is there a debate or something on tonight? What channel is it on if so? Just flicking through but can't find anything.

    Debate is next week.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Roger said:

    I think these leads reflect a short term anger with the Conservatives which I can well understand. Most people aren't multi millionaire businessmen and most of us don't see them as masters of the universe. Speaking for myself being lectured to by 103 letter signing businessmen almost persuaded me to take to the campaign trail.....They need someone like Steve Hilton who doesn't share the Hoorey Henry Cameron/Guido/Clarkson world view.

    (Having said that no one has the power of recovery like the Tories....)

    I would have said that in the 90s Roger.

    But if they do not win a majority this time, 28 years is quite a long recovery.
    1992 to 2020,
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.
    I can't see anyone being able to unite Ukip and Lib Dem voters. Boris simly won't be able to get away with being a pro-EU, illegal immigrant amnesty one-nation Tory darling of the right for long. He'll have to choose.
    I doubt if he would campaign as a pro-EU, pro-amnesty Tory leader. Some politicians have the rare gift of being able to appeal to both core voters and floating voters. He's one of them.

    I think he'd be poor as PM, but a drowning man will clutch at a serpent.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    Sean_F said:

    Its hilarious some pple are touting Boris, hilarious on two counts. First as said below to overreact to a couple of easter hols polls is a bit silly.

    Its also hilarious second because the last thing the tories would need is another tory toff. They need a state educated leader who doesn't speak of ordinary people by peering down his posh nose and sneering at the 'great unwashed'. They're your people tories. Lose them you lose the election. Maggie knew it. Major knew it.

    Boris is the kind of toff the public like.
    Being a toff in itself is not a problem. It's when you're a toff who is pushing policies that favour toffs when people start to care.

    After all, the public didn't really talk/care about Cameron being rich until he got into government and started cutting poor people's benefits and services, while cutting top-rate tax.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Sean_F said:

    Its hilarious some pple are touting Boris, hilarious on two counts. First as said below to overreact to a couple of easter hols polls is a bit silly.

    Its also hilarious second because the last thing the tories would need is another tory toff. They need a state educated leader who doesn't speak of ordinary people by peering down his posh nose and sneering at the 'great unwashed'. They're your people tories. Lose them you lose the election. Maggie knew it. Major knew it.

    Boris is the kind of toff the public like.
    And the last time the tories won a general election with a toff at the top was?

    In 2020 the answer will be 60 years. 60 years and STILL many tories don't get it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Quick question which may well be of relevance - Do Aussies like underdogs ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    edited April 2015
    Yorkcity said:

    I wonder if Dave needs to start worrying about his legacy ?

    Alan what do you think his legacy will be, if in a month he has gone ?



    gay marriage will be his proudest achievement but it hasn't won him many votes.
  • Thursday 09 April 2015 UK
    Stephen Lawrence: Lord Stevens investigated by IPCC
    Channel 4 Simon Israel Home Affairs Correspondent
    EXCLUSIVE: former Metropolitan Police commissioner Lord Stevens is being investigated over allegations of a cover-up of police corruption in the Stephen Lawrence murder probe in the 1990s.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I think Mike has been right all along re the vicissitudes of the polling, in that they don't really matter that much whether the Tories are 4 ahead or Labour 4 ahead.

    The Tories will probably lose 50 marginals in England, and Labour will lose 30 seats in Scotland. And Ed Miliband will have a right to state his case for PM.

    I still think the Tories will win most votes and Labour most seats.

    But it hasn't been a good couple of days for the Tories. Labour have bent their backs to create Brownesque 'dividing lines'; the VAT one exploded but they've acted quickly and created one over Non Doms and positioned themselves on the side of fairness.

    The fairness is all crap of course because there isn't much fairness in taxing workers more and wanting to spend their money for them. But hey, it's working.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Yorkcity said:

    Roger said:

    I think these leads reflect a short term anger with the Conservatives which I can well understand. Most people aren't multi millionaire businessmen and most of us don't see them as masters of the universe. Speaking for myself being lectured to by 103 letter signing businessmen almost persuaded me to take to the campaign trail.....They need someone like Steve Hilton who doesn't share the Hoorey Henry Cameron/Guido/Clarkson world view.

    (Having said that no one has the power of recovery like the Tories....)

    I would have said that in the 90s Roger.

    But if they do not win a majority this time, 28 years is quite a long recovery.
    1992 to 2020,
    I think the Tories will vote Boris in as leader, but he would be a bit of a shambles, they will go through a bout of regicide in 2018, get a 2010 class MP to lead them into the election with fresh ideas and a fresh vision with no Dave/George baggage and no nasty party baggage.
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    edited April 2015
    Someones put £50k on a Labour majority at 30!

    Almost certainly a Tory supporter
  • Tories on holiday, like me....
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    Moses_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:



    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.

    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    You won't find any argument from me. The Tories have been politically naive over the last couple of days. They need to give the country something positive a vision of Britain that people can look forwards to. Last time Dave was pimping his big society vision, it may not have been my cup of tea, but it was at least something. This time they are too bogged down in facts and statistics which just turns people off, plus a bunch of negative attacks on Ed which, again, just turns people off.

    The Tories are missing Steve Hilton big time IMO.

    Whatever people say about Labour and Ed, he is still giving people a vision of Britain, a poorer but fairer country where the wealthy are less so, but his 35% are comfortable with that and they don't seem to care that it means more taxes for everyone else and the Tories are doing literally nothing to give an opposing vision of wealth creation and positive capitalism. I said it some time last year, but the Tories seem to be scared of being capitalist and they are running away from wealth creation. It is a very big mistake. Yes social media will howl and whine if Dave and George come out in favour of it, but they will do that whatever the weather. Middle England wants wealth creation, Dave needs to offer it.
    Indeed.
    Great

    How much Is this ideology costing you.

    Probably zero. Make sure you know where your Jon centre is you are gonna need that information ishortly.

    If you're suggesting I'm a Labour supporter then you're wrong..

    Unlike Cameron and Osborne I always opposed the Gordon Brown economic strategy.

    And unlike Cameron and Osborne I've spent my working life creating wealth, not living off the wealth other people have created.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    Is there a debate or something on tonight? What channel is it on if so? Just flicking through but can't find anything.

    Debate is next week.
    Bah! I have the TV booked tonight for politics. Oh well, guess I'll have to catch up with Arrow or something.

    If the opposition one is next week, when is the three party leader QT special? Any other major events between now and the election?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    I wonder if Dave needs to start worrying about his legacy ?

    Alan what do you think his legacy will be, if in a month he has gone ?



    gay marriage will be his proudest achievement but it hasn't won him many votes.
    Yes I would agree with that.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Poor old Broadstairs. Jewel of the Kent coast. Having to put up with Farage.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044

    Tories on holiday, like me....

    Hope you have some spare drinkies. The polls do not look good!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Please Watch this -


    Dear Labour, Here is Something to Actually Moan About

    http://order-order.com/2015/04/09/dear-labour-here-is-something-to-actually-moan-about/#_@/M8EuhwrKCaTRLg
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Someones put £50k on a Labour majority at 30!

    Almost certainly a Tory supporter

    £1.5m/£50k or £50k/£1667
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2015
    His proudest achievement will be the formation of UKIP as a movement.

    So long as the tories don't retoxify under a new leader, splitting off the idiot fringe into a separate party has finally made the blues electable.

    Just not in 2015.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    A bit premature, but who will the next Tory leader be?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Its hilarious some pple are touting Boris, hilarious on two counts. First as said below to overreact to a couple of easter hols polls is a bit silly.

    Its also hilarious second because the last thing the tories would need is another tory toff. They need a state educated leader who doesn't speak of ordinary people by peering down his posh nose and sneering at the 'great unwashed'. They're your people tories. Lose them you lose the election. Maggie knew it. Major knew it.

    Boris is the kind of toff the public like.
    Being a toff in itself is not a problem. It's when you're a toff who is pushing policies that favour toffs when people start to care.

    After all, the public didn't really talk/care about Cameron being rich until he got into government and started cutting poor people's benefits and services, while cutting top-rate tax.
    The reason all of that failed was because the Tories did it without explaining it to the public. Osborne wasn't out on TV every day after cutting the additional rate explaining that we want more millionaires and high net worth people in the country to pay more tax, not to drive them away with high marginal rates. The Tories just did it and it looked like a tax cut for rich people by rich people. Getting more rich people into the country to pay tax will mean lower taxes for ordinary people. We want to create wealth, we want to attract investment, we want this country to be the number one destination for wealthy people to set down their roots and pay taxes. If the Tories were out there every day for a month explaining this all over the media it would have cut through, wealth creation is a net gain for the country. Instead they were embarrassed and hid away with Dave and George down in the bunker waiting for it all to go away while the two Eds were making hay about a tax cut for millionaires by millionaires.

    The only way to beat the trap laid by Labour on the 50p rate was to go into it so hard and fast that you don't get dragged down by it. If they had owned the tax cut, it would have been better for them. Plus they should have done it while cutting their tax free threshold for the first time rather than when they introduced a bunch of tax raising measures elsewhere.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Speedy said:

    A bit premature, but who will the next Tory leader be?

    State educated & probably female
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    edited April 2015

    Speedy said:

    A bit premature, but who will the next Tory leader be?

    State educated & probably female
    What about a certain grammar-schooled woman? :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015
    Speedy said:

    A bit premature, but who will the next Tory leader be?

    Javid? A fresh face to most people, but with a bit more experience at senior level than most of the newer intake, and powerful allies who have zero chance themselves (eg Osborne).
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    MaxPB said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Roger said:

    I think these leads reflect a short term anger with the Conservatives which I can well understand. Most people aren't multi millionaire businessmen and most of us don't see them as masters of the universe. Speaking for myself being lectured to by 103 letter signing businessmen almost persuaded me to take to the campaign trail.....They need someone like Steve Hilton who doesn't share the Hoorey Henry Cameron/Guido/Clarkson world view.

    (Having said that no one has the power of recovery like the Tories....)

    I would have said that in the 90s Roger.

    But if they do not win a majority this time, 28 years is quite a long recovery.
    1992 to 2020,
    I think the Tories will vote Boris in as leader, but he would be a bit of a shambles, they will go through a bout of regicide in 2018, get a 2010 class MP to lead them into the election with fresh ideas and a fresh vision with no Dave/George baggage and no nasty party baggage.
    To win the London Mayority twice, once under a Labour Government then the other under a Conservative led Administration is some achievement.
    He could become a very popular leader of the opposition, against Milliband if that was the outcome of the GE.
    So could be in a great position to be the first conservative majority winner since 1992, in 2020.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    CD13 said:

    purseybear,

    "Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories."

    I suspect very few people run a deficit - that's the way to homelessness.

    A century ago all of my extended family's ancestors rented crap little terraces in pit villages.

    Now we pretty much all own nice detached houses in posh villages.

    A vital factor in that transformation was that each generation lived within its means and improved itself.

    By comparison the UK has a balance of payments deficit at record levels, stagnant productivity and government debt which has increased by a TRILLION quid during the last decade.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    Pong said:

    His proudest achievement will be the formation of ukip.

    So long as the tories don't retoxify under a new leader, splitting off the idiot fringe into a separate party has finally made the blues electable.

    Just not in 2015.

    That is actually a historical achievement for David Cameron, last time that the Tory party split was over the Corn Laws in 1846.
    And it's a historical first for the Tory party to split towards the right.

    So he will have a place in history after all.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    A bit premature, but who will the next Tory leader be?

    Javid? A fresh face to most people, but with a bit more experience at senior level than most of the newer intake, and powerful allies who have zero chance themselves (eg Osborne).
    The best thing about Javid is that it completely does away with this myth that the Tories are racist. If anything it will make a lot of Labourites uncomfortable, lots of "Uncle Tom" accusations will be thrown around IMO which will only help them. They need a state educated leader though, after the get Boris out of their system.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    A bit premature, but who will the next Tory leader be?

    State educated & probably female
    What about a certain grammar-schooled woman? :D
    :-)

    Grammar = state in my book whatever ones views on them!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044

    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    A bit premature, but who will the next Tory leader be?

    State educated & probably female
    What about a certain grammar-schooled woman? :D
    :-)

    Grammar = state in my book whatever ones views on them!!
    Apparently it turned into a comp while she was there.
  • marktheowlmarktheowl Posts: 169

    Please Watch this -


    Dear Labour, Here is Something to Actually Moan About

    http://order-order.com/2015/04/09/dear-labour-here-is-something-to-actually-moan-about/#_@/M8EuhwrKCaTRLg

    I think those who followed the debate on Twitter have been moaning about it, Helen Pidd the Graun's northern correspondent was tweeting it and it was ludicrous and Galloway utterly shameful. A highlight was the UKIP candidate promising to name a massage oil after Galloway.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Rubbish! If you had been paying more attention over the last few days you might notice that the gloss is finally coming off the SNP when it comes to their domestic record!
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.
    Pulpstar said:

    fitalass said:

    I wouldn't bother with the usual wings spin on this, I was actually around on twitter last night and saw this whole sorry but totally predictable nasty witch hunt unfold in real time. Didn't we see enough of this during the Independence Referendum?!

    Carnyx said:

    I haven't been around today. Have the nats here apologised for perpetuating the lies and bullying about that girl who asked the question in the scottish debate?

    Have a look at Wings over Scotland for a rather different story.



    The lies ain't coming from the Nats in this GE campaign.
  • From recollection (I could be wrong, as it was 5 years ago), didn't the Conservatives blow a 10 point Opinion Poll lead in run into 2010 General Election.

    This is what you get, when a political party is stuffed with so many beneficiaries of the UK's privilege (unfairness) system - these people from privilege system actually believe their breeding makes them superior then the rest of us? We, who have spent decades at eking out and grafting for whatever talents that bring us joy or greater productive outcomes in life.

    These privileged posh toffs, in 2010 General Election performed a panic dump of their entire 2010 General Election Strategy and spent the last 2 weeks desperately trying to win back their core vote on an old fashion campaign of immigration reductions and promises of reducing taxes (oops, didn't they promise their core vote no VAT rises). LOL, over the last 5 years they shattered both policy option directions to their own core vote.

    These privileged (unfairness) posh toffs, believed importing an Australian GE expert, since when are Australians a match for brightest of each generation of UK citizens. The UK has produced many great citizen's of knowledge, such as Isaac Newton and Thomas Paine, to date the Australians have produce no noteworthy man of knowledge. The Conservatives chose this as opposed to the humiliating (loss of face) in admitting to the citizenry (electorate) that they needed some of those (unclean and badly bred) working class geniuses, because their paper qualifications from Oxford were not the same as eking and grafting at a brightness in life.

    Furthermore, Conservative return to old fashioned Credit Expansion for boom and bust policy option as their Austerity Program publicly showed only stagnation and recession effects (contrary to their 2010 GE promises) necessitated another importation of a Canadian Central Bank expert. Again, the Conservatives chose this, as opposed, to the humiliating (loss of face) in admitting to the citizenry (electorate) that they needed some of those (unclean and badly bred) working class geniuses in government. Mark Carney's claim to fame today, is he was the architect of the Canada's Credit Expansion Boom and Bust option - Canada is currently in the bust side of that cycle.

    Not much of political party and their individuals exude the worst characteristics of human egotism.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    A bit premature, but who will the next Tory leader be?

    Javid? A fresh face to most people, but with a bit more experience at senior level than most of the newer intake, and powerful allies who have zero chance themselves (eg Osborne).
    The best thing about Javid is that it completely does away with this myth that the Tories are racist. If anything it will make a lot of Labourites uncomfortable, lots of "Uncle Tom" accusations will be thrown around IMO which will only help them. They need a state educated leader though, after the get Boris out of their system.
    I think that myth has gone away since UKIP has scooped the right, which also makes an interesting point, will the next Tory leader need to be a right-winger to try to unify the right or get that juicy 15% of UKIP ?
    After all the Labour party progressively choose leaders more in tune with the Alliance and the LD, precisely to try to get them back after they left in 1981.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    Pong said:

    His proudest achievement will be the formation of UKIP as a movement.

    So long as the tories don't retoxify under a new leader, splitting off the idiot fringe into a separate party has finally made the blues electable.

    Just not in 2015.

    A party with Afzal Amin, Sayeeda Warsi, Maria Miller and Malcolm Rifkind never ceased to be toxic.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Sue Perkins as "stalking horse" to make Jodie Kidd a fan favourite?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/569266/Jeremy-Clarkson-Top-Gear-Sue-Perkins-Jodie-Kidd-BBC
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Speedy said:

    Pong said:

    His proudest achievement will be the formation of ukip.

    So long as the tories don't retoxify under a new leader, splitting off the idiot fringe into a separate party has finally made the blues electable.

    Just not in 2015.

    That is actually a historical achievement for David Cameron, last time that the Tory party split was over the Corn Laws in 1846.
    And it's a historical first for the Tory party to split towards the right.

    So he will have a place in history after all.
    That is just such nonsense. Ukip voters are NOT all former tory voters, and two defecting backbenchers is not a split of the parliamentary party. Such a split may come, but it will be via a new eurosceptic party. Bernard Jenkin will not join Ukip.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    @MaxPB: best poster of the week
    (and I'm not even thinking about his experiences in Zurich)
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Modern tories may reflect, with some bitterness, that the public only turns to them when the country is in dire straights.

    1979. 2010.

    Its a horrible position to be in.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,655
    Kwasi Kwarteng or Gavin Barwell as next Tory leader. Julian Huppert as next LibDem. Tristram Hunt as... well... nevermind.

    Disclaimer: all of the above went to college with me...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    Yorkcity said:

    MaxPB said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Roger said:

    I think these leads reflect a short term anger with the Conservatives which I can well understand. Most people aren't multi millionaire businessmen and most of us don't see them as masters of the universe. Speaking for myself being lectured to by 103 letter signing businessmen almost persuaded me to take to the campaign trail.....They need someone like Steve Hilton who doesn't share the Hoorey Henry Cameron/Guido/Clarkson world view.

    (Having said that no one has the power of recovery like the Tories....)

    I would have said that in the 90s Roger.

    But if they do not win a majority this time, 28 years is quite a long recovery.
    1992 to 2020,
    I think the Tories will vote Boris in as leader, but he would be a bit of a shambles, they will go through a bout of regicide in 2018, get a 2010 class MP to lead them into the election with fresh ideas and a fresh vision with no Dave/George baggage and no nasty party baggage.
    To win the London Mayority twice, once under a Labour Government then the other under a Conservative led Administration is some achievement.
    He could become a very popular leader of the opposition, against Milliband if that was the outcome of the GE.
    So could be in a great position to be the first conservative majority winner since 1992, in 2020.
    Boris was the right man for the right job at the right time in the right place as London Mayor.

    Becoming PM is a very different thing.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    Dair said:

    Sue Perkins as "stalking horse" to make Jodie Kidd a fan favourite?

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/569266/Jeremy-Clarkson-Top-Gear-Sue-Perkins-Jodie-Kidd-BBC

    Hahaha.

    The BBC have really decided to drive Top Gear's ratings to the ground.
    You don't have a woman being the lead star in a boys only show, unless she is going to do something rated 18+.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Ishmael_X said:

    Can I bore everyone by pointing out that this is ONLY TWO POLLS? and appeal for calm. We must husband our resources for all the shrieking and hand-waving with which we will greet the 4 point Lab lead in Yougov later on. Or not.

    My thoughts exactly!

    Every time there is a poll one way or another people on here think it is all over, spout their tribal bollocks whilst others change their bets yet again.

    It's absolutely laughable.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Superb analysis of the tory faults from Max today.

    Simply superb.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766

    Yorkcity said:

    MaxPB said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Roger said:

    I think these leads reflect a short term anger with the Conservatives which I can well understand. Most people aren't multi millionaire businessmen and most of us don't see them as masters of the universe. Speaking for myself being lectured to by 103 letter signing businessmen almost persuaded me to take to the campaign trail.....They need someone like Steve Hilton who doesn't share the Hoorey Henry Cameron/Guido/Clarkson world view.

    (Having said that no one has the power of recovery like the Tories....)

    I would have said that in the 90s Roger.

    But if they do not win a majority this time, 28 years is quite a long recovery.
    1992 to 2020,
    I think the Tories will vote Boris in as leader, but he would be a bit of a shambles, they will go through a bout of regicide in 2018, get a 2010 class MP to lead them into the election with fresh ideas and a fresh vision with no Dave/George baggage and no nasty party baggage.
    To win the London Mayority twice, once under a Labour Government then the other under a Conservative led Administration is some achievement.
    He could become a very popular leader of the opposition, against Milliband if that was the outcome of the GE.
    So could be in a great position to be the first conservative majority winner since 1992, in 2020.
    Boris was the right man for the right job at the right time in the right place as London Mayor.

    Becoming PM is a very different thing.
    Spot on
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    taffys said:

    Modern tories may reflect, with some bitterness, that the public only turns to them when the country is in dire straights.

    1979. 2010.

    Its a horrible position to be in.

    Like visiting a dentist after eating too many sweets ;)

    Times seem to be good right now though - safe to vote Labour in !
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited April 2015
    I reckon the Tories are panicking too early .Although they're doing their best to lose, they are very lucky in their enemies.

    I think they're looking stale. "Marvellous news, five more years of depression, let's rejoice" isn't a vote winner, so Ed is gaining on the fairness front. "Let's bash the rich instead." has a better ring to it.

    But they only have to inject a little optimism into the final few weeks to win by default.

    If I had to bet I'd still go for NOM with the Tories having first go at a coalition.

    Either way, being an old git, I'll be fine, but five years of Ed will be like toothache for some of you.
This discussion has been closed.