Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 41 secs42 seconds ago After last week's 4% CON lead tonight's ComRes/Mail phone poll has Con 34% (-2) Lab 33% (+1) Lib Dem 12% (+3) UKIP 12% (NC)
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
Makes you wonder how much these polls simply reflect the fact that huge numbers of people are still away for the Easter break which doesn't end till next week.
steve hawkes @steve_hawkes 38m38 minutes ago Harriet Harman opened up new attack line for Tories on LBC tonight- refused to rule out fuel duty hike. Labour raised 12 times before 2010
Wait, is this an attack on the Conservative fuel duty escalator?
The fall in the price of oil is another suitcase of free money for labour. Low inflation means more scope for higher tax. Given that we have just discovered a 100 billion reservoir of oil under the south of England (158 million/sq mile) then long term I think the oil price is going to stay low. We can expect to extract about 33% of what the north sea has given over the last 40 years. Plus fracking. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32229203
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn · 2 mins2 minutes ago YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Tories retake a small lead as UKIP on the fall again. CON 35%, LAB 34%, UKIP 12%, LDEM 8%, GRN 4%
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
Tory surge. Up 12.5% compared to paltry 6% rise by sleazy broken Nats.
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
We need a distinction between an EICIPM minority government, and EICIPM majority government. Any ideas?
well as all the lefties told us the Tories actually lost the last election (and MaxPB on this thread), a minority government is EICLEIPM and a majority would be EICWEIPM.
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
I stand by my comment made last month that getting excited or downhearted over an opinion poll is the equivalent of cheering or booing a throw in at a football match
Moronic behaviour. I suppose it is at least a little more bearable on here when they favour labour
Be fair, 3 good polls in a row must be the equivalent of a dangerous free-kick. They rarely go in, but the anticipation is there.
Being 5% up in the exit poll is a penalty kick, presumably.
Being 5% up in the exit poll is being 2 goals to the good going into injury time if you're Labour. Obviously, it's just level pegging for the Tories (and FIFA 2014 for the Lib Dems).
I think Miliband's ruthless but weak, not unlike Honorius.
I don't agree, Morris. I've been quite impressed with Miliband so far in the campaign. He made the same blunders that every LOTO makes in the early days - whether it's huskies at the Pole or baseball caps at Notting Hill or eating a bacon sandwich in a funny way,
Backed into a corner by years of vitriol from the anti-labour media, he's come out swinging and probably surprised even himself but to get where he's got (and the same was true of Cameron) requires tremendous strength and self-belief.
Is he "Prime Ministerial" ? Was Thatcher or Blair or Cameron ? In short, you never know until they are in the job and doing it. To me, Miliband has elements of Wilson just as Cameron has elements of Heath and this whole election has a 1974-feel to it with plenty of insurgent parties with stronger personalities to get in the way.
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
Tory surge. Up 12.5% compared to paltry 6% rise by sleazy broken Nats.
Not convinced that Tories should be happy with tonight's polls. They need to make serious changes to their campaign or Labour are going to win on 35% of the vote.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn · 2 mins2 minutes ago YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Tories retake a small lead as UKIP on the fall again. CON 35%, LAB 34%, UKIP 12%, LDEM 8%, GRN 4%
The Guardian headline really does smack of 'We're alllllriiight'
Very premature. Worth buying a copy tomorrow in case the Labour leads earlier turn out to be Easter bunnies.
If Labour get in any position of power, interest rates will go up.
The general population will not only face higher taxes from Labour, but also see their mortgages significantly cost more.
Are they really that stupid?
But increased interest GOOD NEWS for savers who have been stuffed rotten over past few years.
This is one of the most bizarre media claims that exists.
Long term savers do not invest in cash, the interest rate is (virtually) irrelevant to them. Short term and cash savers do not really care whether their £10k makes an extra £10 over a couple of years or not. It;s meaningless to the average person.
Even assuming that most people are "savers". The vast majority of working age people aren't even saving for pensions, let alone cash savings accounts. That died when middle incomes died during the mid 90s.
What in the name of God are you wibbling about? What do long-term savers invest in if not in cash and interest-bearing bonds?
Whilst no poll should be ignored and weight given to them all I suspect most people would put more faith in YouGov and ComRes than TNS, Panelbase and Survation.
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
Awful news for Labour in Scotland is not an exclusive!
Not convinced that Tories should be happy with tonight's polls. They need to make serious changes to their campaign or Labour are going to win on 35% of the vote.
Not convinced that Tories should be happy with tonight's polls. They need to make serious changes to their campaign or Labour are going to win on 35% of the vote.
What campaign.....
Yeah, it doesn't seem as though it has really started yet (from the blue side).
Not convinced that Tories should be happy with tonight's polls. They need to make serious changes to their campaign or Labour are going to win on 35% of the vote.
If Labour are only polling mid 30s on the back of 18 year olds clicking 'Labour' in their bedroom on the internet, they really are in trouble.
Some better polls, good to see Lab are not pulling out of sight and so keeping the contest alive, but get a move on Tories - it will be much more exciting if it looks like being Tories most votes/not most seats.
If Labour get in any position of power, interest rates will go up.
The general population will not only face higher taxes from Labour, but also see their mortgages significantly cost more.
Are they really that stupid?
But increased interest GOOD NEWS for savers who have been stuffed rotten over past few years.
This is one of the most bizarre media claims that exists.
Long term savers do not invest in cash, the interest rate is (virtually) irrelevant to them. Short term and cash savers do not really care whether their £10k makes an extra £10 over a couple of years or not. It;s meaningless to the average person.
Even assuming that most people are "savers". The vast majority of working age people aren't even saving for pensions, let alone cash savings accounts. That died when middle incomes died during the mid 90s.
During the late 90's. Brown's first budget really. But we won't get you to admit that will we? Meantime we will all see where Mr Smithson puts his benefit before the country's
Not convinced that Tories should be happy with tonight's polls. They need to make serious changes to their campaign or Labour are going to win on 35% of the vote.
Tory voters on holiday over easter...see what happens next week
The lack of winnable seats for them and UKIP will, I think, see a fair chunk of their voters going for a party that is actually relevant in the seat of that voter. I would guess that come election day they will attract less than 15% of the total vote combined.
Well, some fairly desperate cheer leading from the Conservative faithful tonight. Com Res isn't brilliant - fourth poll of the today with a fall in Conservative vote share.
From a personal perspective, nice to see the LDs recording their highest poll figure for a long time. YouGov moves around its usual axis so nothing too dramatic there.
I suppose a declining 34% is better than a declining 31% but all in all tonight's polls will please Labour more but there's a very long way to go and if you think a week is a long time in politics, a month is an eternity.
All square, as before, nothing has changed except holiday distortions.
Yes. I thought we might be witnessing a mini Edasm, but Labour are probably just benefiting from the absence of the fortnight-off-over-Easter brigade. Signs of Labour 'momentum' were almost certainly illusory.
Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
Way beyond MoE shift. Percentage wise, Ruth won the debates, Nicola a strong second (kinda what people thought) and #creepyjim was just... creepy and turned people off.
Some better polls, good to see Lab are not pulling out of sight and so keeping the contest alive, but get a move on Tories - it will be much more exciting if it looks like being Tories most votes/not most seats.
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
I'm going to make ...
Weren't some people closing their Scotland positions last night?
Feel sorry for the Beeboids tomorrow morning. They are going to be terribly confused when somebody tells them that despite what it said on the front of their copy of the Guardian, it isn't quite as clear cut as that...BUT BUT BUT the Guardian says..
@afneil: I suspect the Guardian will be hurriedly changing its front page ...
Nah. What's there is accurate in as far as it goes. Only the anoraks can be bothered to go through the detail of five polls.
Except James Langdale just made them look stupid live on BBC1 by saying "another batch of polls literally in the last few minutes showing the tories ahead".
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
A relief to see some good news for Tories but they need to change the campaign. No more stupid Laurel'n'Hardy stuff and more (if not all) economy, economy, economy.
Not convinced that Tories should be happy with tonight's polls. They need to make serious changes to their campaign or Labour are going to win on 35% of the vote.
Tory voters on holiday over easter...see what happens next week
Not convinced that Tories should be happy with tonight's polls. They need to make serious changes to their campaign or Labour are going to win on 35% of the vote.
Tory voters on holiday over easter...see what happens next week
Didn't you read downthread? They're not coming back.
On the whole a good day's polling for Labour. Much more worrying for the Tories is the marked improvement in Ed Miliband. He looks and sounds like a completely different person.
Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
Way beyond MoE shift. Percentage wise, Ruth won the debates, Nicola a strong second (kinda what people thought) and #creepyjim was just... creepy and turned people off.
Tories to become second party in Scotland in terms of seats? Suspect a bit of schadenfreude from Tory PBers.
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
I'm going to make ...
Hope you had the tissues handy...
I can't believe I laid off Coatbridge last weekend !
Not convinced that Tories should be happy with tonight's polls. They need to make serious changes to their campaign or Labour are going to win on 35% of the vote.
Tory voters on holiday over easter...see what happens next week
Not convinced that Tories should be happy with tonight's polls. They need to make serious changes to their campaign or Labour are going to win on 35% of the vote.
Tory voters on holiday over easter...see what happens next week
Didn't you read downthread? They're not coming back.
Aint you heard we can still vote from our foreign boltholes
I suspect the polls have turned.You don`t get 3 different polls showing big movements away from one party and towards another party simultaneously unless movement is more than MOE.
Ofcourse the Tories need to maintain they are still in contention as otherwise their MP`s will turn on their leader before the election.
Cameron is headed towards Michael Howard territory or even worse.
there's a very long way to go and if you think a week is a long time in politics, a month is an eternity.
I think it's always worth looking back to think about events which at the time got blown up as vital but in retrospect everyone has just forgotten about and actually had zero effect.
eg Remember all the excitement about Cameron saying he wouldn't go for a 3rd term? Two weeks on everyone has completely forgotten about it and I can't imagine it moved a single vote.
The same is true of stuff going on now. Everyone gets excited about every twist and turn. But voters vote based on their general impressions and overall feelings - none of the detail makes any difference.
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
I'm going to make ...
Hope you had the tissues handy...
I can't believe I laid off Coatbridge last weekend !
Comments
Con 34% (-2)
Lab 33% (+1)
Lib Dem 12% (+3)
UKIP 12% (NC)
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/586272077411459074
After last week's 4% CON lead tonight's ComRes/Mail phone poll has
Con 34% (-2)
Lab 33% (+1)
Lib Dem 12% (+3)
UKIP 12% (NC)
(compared to last week)
SNP 49 +3
Lab 25 -4
Con 18 +2
LD 4 +1
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/586272487702396928
ComRes phone poll showing CON lead down from 4 to 1 is for ITV as well as Mail
Given that we have just discovered a 100 billion reservoir of oil under the south of England (158 million/sq mile) then long term I think the oil price is going to stay low. We can expect to extract about 33% of what the north sea has given over the last 40 years. Plus fracking.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32229203
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Tories retake a small lead as UKIP on the fall again. CON 35%, LAB 34%, UKIP 12%, LDEM 8%, GRN 4%
(compared to last week)
SNP 49 +3
Lab 25 -4
Con 18 +2
LD 4 +1
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/586272871233757184
But the Tories DO need to do better and soon.
[Panelbase not real poll]
Nicola owns Ed
Backed into a corner by years of vitriol from the anti-labour media, he's come out swinging and probably surprised even himself but to get where he's got (and the same was true of Cameron) requires tremendous strength and self-belief.
Is he "Prime Ministerial" ? Was Thatcher or Blair or Cameron ? In short, you never know until they are in the job and doing it. To me, Miliband has elements of Wilson just as Cameron has elements of Heath and this whole election has a 1974-feel to it with plenty of insurgent parties with stronger personalities to get in the way.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/586272444006076416
I suspect the Guardian will be hurriedly changing its front page ...
I'm neither embargoed or unembargoed.
I'm frustratingly embargoless, like all of us PB plebs.
OK, still overall a good polling day for Lab.
Three very good polls for Lab this afternoon, three pretty much OK ones indicating no change tonight. Plus a disastrous Scotland for Lab.
Very premature. Worth buying a copy tomorrow in case the Labour leads earlier turn out to be Easter bunnies.
Sam Coates Times @SamCoatesTimes
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YouGov / Times: 44% of Labour voters said Murphy was the winner, while 88 % of SNP voters judged Sturgeon best
What did the tory voter say ;-)
80s pop music reference = Tory lead
90s pop music reference = Lab lead
Meantime we will all see where Mr Smithson puts his benefit before the country's
I would guess that come election day they will attract less than 15% of the total vote combined.
From a personal perspective, nice to see the LDs recording their highest poll figure for a long time. YouGov moves around its usual axis so nothing too dramatic there.
I suppose a declining 34% is better than a declining 31% but all in all tonight's polls will please Labour more but there's a very long way to go and if you think a week is a long time in politics, a month is an eternity.
A Sheffield moment
Boris will win a post-election leadership contest at a canter. Farron for the Lib Dems. Lots of fireworks but no real drama.
Ooops.
Ofcourse the Tories need to maintain they are still in contention as otherwise their MP`s will turn on their leader before the election.
Cameron is headed towards Michael Howard territory or even worse.
eg Remember all the excitement about Cameron saying he wouldn't go for a 3rd term? Two weeks on everyone has completely forgotten about it and I can't imagine it moved a single vote.
The same is true of stuff going on now. Everyone gets excited about every twist and turn. But voters vote based on their general impressions and overall feelings - none of the detail makes any difference.