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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB moves to 4% lead with Survation and Ed now ahead of Dav

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    There were, in fieldwork chronology, 8 Lab poll leads in a row in February. We have 6 in a row as of today's Panelbase/Survation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    My point was whether one thinks one needs to eliminate the deficit or not, both Tories and Labour intend to cut large amounts to do just that, and slightly different timescales and priorities will not make Labour cuts hurt those on the receiving end of them less than Tory cuts, even if someone believes, as they appear to, that Labour are doing it reluctantly while Tories are doing it joyfully. If someone doesn't like coalition austerity, turning to Labour is not that different a choice for someone to make.
  • marktheowlmarktheowl Posts: 169
    What's been weird about the Tories' campaign this week is the missed opportunity. Looking at it objectively, why on Earth did they not have a big counter-intuitive tax change or announcement on pay to follow-up all the stuff about 'money-back Monday'? It ended up a complete damp squib because there were no new news lines out of it, just Cameron and Osborne congratulating themselves on their own brilliance, which predictably was muddied by the opposition making counter-claims and journalists not being too keen on swallowing obvious propaganda. If they had, they could've portrayed the non-dom policy as a gimmicky response to their own plans and something they were looking at doing anyway. Instead Labour have seized control of the news agenda, with the Tories reduced to desperate carping and this nasty trident tripe.

    As a pessimist, I can only think that they're saving up their ammunition for later and this period of lackadaisical campaigning is designed to tease out Labour's strategy and generate over excitement among their enemies in order to hit when Labour have thrown their best populist punches. Rope-a-dope, if you will. The Tories have been so crap it surely has to be deliberate - they'll have to be careful though, if it isn't and this is their strategy they'll lose, possibly heavily. Ed Miliband will never be acclaimed as the father of the nation, but with every day he calmly deals with the nonsense coming from CCHQ, he looks more and more like the next PM, and if his personal ratings continue to edge up, even those who didn't think he was up to it will reluctantly accept that he's preferable to a busted flush in Cameron.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    Yorkcity said:

    Danny565 said:

    @jameschappers: Some interesting moves in our @ComResPolls latest telephone survey, out at 10pm

    Streak of Lab leads about to be broken, then.
    If you are in the red team which I doubt, I would hate to have you anywhere near the dressing room,the players would go over the white line already defeated.

    Southam at least has an excuse as a spurs supporter and a terrible tipster to boot.
    He gets very election wrong from the USA to the Scottish referendum.
    Pessimism is my way of not getting let down if it doesn't work out.

    Also, the weekend just gone I predicted no more Lab leads during the campaign, so i think I should take over the PB Wooden Spoon for worst tipster :)
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    Got to ask, in spite of me being a UKIP supporter, who the hell is daft enough to be betting on UKIP being the largest party?
  • chestnut said:

    Mortimer said:

    This national polling just isn't tallying with the marginal polling. Or the Scotland polling. Or my straw polling.

    Everything in my gut says '92 all over again.

    Survation's socio-economic weightings are transparently wrong.

    It's still a Lab lead but more like a 31-33 or 32-33.
    Yes because un-skewing polls has a great track record...

    http://gawker.com/5945948/conservative-site-mitt-romney-is-winning-if-you-just-change-the-polls-to-make-him-win
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    WTF are you on about? As people age, their savings increase. How do you manage to explain that with every house running a deficit?
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    If this polling continues how long will Lynton last?


    Lynton will last until he's got rid of the last Libdem.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015
    Managed back 40 and lay 29 Lab maj this avo, glad I tuned in!

    £20@60.25 obtained
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    Anorak said:

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    WTF are you on about? As people age, their savings increase. How do you manage to explain that with every house running a deficit?
    I suspect that Purseybear is yet another of those who doesn't know the difference between deficit and debt.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Anorak said:

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    WTF are you on about? As people age, their savings increase. How do you manage to explain that with every house running a deficit?
    Just meant that loads of 'ordinary' people are up to their eyes in debt and get used to operating like that. It's not such a big deal if incomes still coming in. Think people will rather have a bit of fairness and gentle leadership than more of this bashing from the posh boys. Thats the way it comes over any rate.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    'Every household in Britain' - I doubt it. Most people aren't that stupid.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    I haven't been around today. Have the nats here apologised for perpetuating the lies and bullying about that girl who asked the question in the scottish debate?

    Have a look at Wings over Scotland for a rather different story.



  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited April 2015
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    What's on tonight politics-wise? Is it the opposition leaders debate tonight or something else?

    Obviously Question Time and This Week but wasn't sure what else?
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited April 2015

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    'Every household in Britain' - I doubt it. Most people aren't that stupid.
    Most people don't have the choice.

    See this is where the tories are a million miles from ordinary voters
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044

    What's on tonight politics-wise? Is it the opposition leaders debate tonight or something else?

    Obviously Question Time and This Week but wasn't sure what else?

    Isn't the challengers debate on? Or is that next week?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015
    Danny565 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Danny565 said:

    @jameschappers: Some interesting moves in our @ComResPolls latest telephone survey, out at 10pm

    Streak of Lab leads about to be broken, then.
    If you are in the red team which I doubt, I would hate to have you anywhere near the dressing room,the players would go over the white line already defeated.

    Southam at least has an excuse as a spurs supporter and a terrible tipster to boot.
    He gets very election wrong from the USA to the Scottish referendum.
    Pessimism is my way of not getting let down if it doesn't work out.

    Also, the weekend just gone I predicted no more Lab leads during the campaign, so i think I should take over the PB Wooden Spoon for worst tipster :)
    A coveted award, no doubt. That's why I try to stay vague. Sure, I've predicted Labour wins of various sizes consistently, but haven't ruled out things like Tories most votes or stated boldly something like no Con leads.

    Although speaking of poor tipsters, I thought it interesting Dan Hodges appears to have gone offscript for pundits, stating (on what will happen if Ed wins):

    Within an hour, the analysts who spent the past year mocking him will start to talk about his resilience under pressure, his singlemindedness...this is how punditry works; all victories (and defeats) are retrospectively declared inevitable

    He doesn't say anything about people who spend the past 5 years mocking Ed M though.

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9494602/ed-miliband-could-still-win-heres-what-would-happen-next/
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2015
    kle4 said:

    A fair point, to be sure. Although plenty of Tories, including those running the campaign strategy, seem to still believe the Cleggasm, temporary though it was, remains the largest single factor as to why they did not achieve a majority in 2010, so presumably if this is the new Cleggasm, those same Tories should remain despondent.
    Be careful, the Cleggasm was a terrible case of premature excitement. The LDs lost seats that election, and the final result was very similar to the pre-debate polling. The Cleggasm was a transient polling phenomenon as ephemeral as the morning mist.

    I got a fiver on Lab Majority at 42 earlier in the week. Good value but still unlikely. I cannot see Ed pulling it off, but could have most seats.

  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Totally lacklustre and complacent tory campaign to date. Undeniable. Porn filters and school tests ffs. Marginal unsubstantive stuff. Hope Lynton is only paid on results.

    Also cannot deny EdM is pitching his mood music very well and successfully to the politically disengaged, financially and economically illiterate types out there with ZHC and non-doms. Unjustified perhaps but again undeniable in my view.

    Hopefully I am just a big scardey-cat and they can get their arses in gear but I am thinking us Tories may lose big at the mo. Very nervous


  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    purseybear,

    "Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories."

    I suspect very few people run a deficit - that's the way to homelessness.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    edited April 2015

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    'Every household in Britain' - I doubt it. Most people aren't that stupid.
    Most people don't have the choice.

    See this is where the tories are a million miles from ordinary voters
    Gonna have to back that up with some facts, I think. You're implying disposable income (after housing, food etc.) is negative for most families.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    I have always thought Phillip Hammond is a possible Conservative leader, and Prime minister in the right circumstances , I said so previously.
    Very safe pair of hands.
    He did not want to repeat the words used by Fallon , on the daily politics, even though he had every opportunity when asked repeatedly by Andrew Neil.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Got to ask, in spite of me being a UKIP supporter, who the hell is daft enough to be betting on UKIP being the largest party?
    A smart arse would say it depends on the odds!

    So, "it depends on the odds" haha
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Well, winning the campaign but losing the election is not unheard of perhaps.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    A bit like Mili-bounces.


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    isam said:

    Got to ask, in spite of me being a UKIP supporter, who the hell is daft enough to be betting on UKIP being the largest party?
    A smart arse would say it depends on the odds!

    So, "it depends on the odds" haha
    Or maybe they ARE odd?

    Hahahaha!
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Purseybear,

    You are really suggesting that people with a mortgage aren't even paying the interest due every month?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    chestnut said:

    A bit like Mili-bounces.

    Mili doesn't need a bounce to win, however, feels like the most salient point, it would just make things easier for him.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    'Every household in Britain' - I doubt it. Most people aren't that stupid.
    Most people don't have the choice.

    See this is where the tories are a million miles from ordinary voters
    Give me some stats to back up your claim.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    I haven't been around today. Have the nats here apologised for perpetuating the lies and bullying about that girl who asked the question in the scottish debate?

    What are you wittering about you dunderheided halfwit
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,081
    Things are hotting up. David Cameron came to my village today - and Ed Miliband was about 2 miles away last week. But nothing like the reception for Nick Clegg in 2010 - but doubt he will be here at all this time.
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    As an aside, I have an inkling Labour appearing likely to win might be beneficial to the Tories in LD/Tory marginals
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    kle4 said:

    A fair point, to be sure. Although plenty of Tories, including those running the campaign strategy, seem to still believe the Cleggasm, temporary though it was, remains the largest single factor as to why they did not achieve a majority in 2010, so presumably if this is the new Cleggasm, those same Tories should remain despondent.
    Be careful, the Cleggasm was a terrible case of premature excitement. [...] and the final result was very similar to the pre-debate polling.

    Personally I'm wagering quite significantly on this strategy. Lots of noise but no overall movement in the campaign seems pretty plausible, and the odds suggest good value.
  • KingaKinga Posts: 59
    edited April 2015
    kle4

    "He doesn't say anything about people who spend the past 5 years mocking Ed M though."

    Presumably he spends the next five years mocking him too.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited April 2015



    See this is where the tories are a million miles from ordinary voters

    YouTube recommended to me Russell Brand Trews nonsense yesterday and I thought why not, lets see what the idiot has to say.

    He spent 10 minutes banging on about how out of touch the Tories where, how they had people do stuff for them, etc....all while being chauffeured around London in a brand new Merc (and no he wasn't being ironic or making trying to make a comic point).

    VIVA LA REVOLUTION is all I say, only as long as I get the chauffeur driven Merc like Russell.
  • Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Danny565 said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Danny565 said:

    @jameschappers: Some interesting moves in our @ComResPolls latest telephone survey, out at 10pm

    Streak of Lab leads about to be broken, then.
    If you are in the red team which I doubt, I would hate to have you anywhere near the dressing room,the players would go over the white line already defeated.

    Southam at least has an excuse as a spurs supporter and a terrible tipster to boot.
    He gets very election wrong from the USA to the Scottish referendum.
    Pessimism is my way of not getting let down if it doesn't work out.

    Also, the weekend just gone I predicted no more Lab leads during the campaign, so i think I should take over the PB Wooden Spoon for worst tipster :)
    To be honest Danny , this election is the hardest one I remember to predict.

    I know one thing though telling people they are now better off than they were in 2010 is a sad joke for many.
    Most people can feel in their water, that the system that crashed allover the world in 2008,still has the capacity to do it again, with banks still to big to fail especially in the UK.
  • JGCJGC Posts: 64
    A fairly reliable strategy is to see what Dan Hodges says and assume exactly the opposite is correct.....
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited April 2015
    Noticed Mr Smithson getting excited with all his post today,I wonder why ;-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    JGC said:

    A fairly reliable strategy is to see what Dan Hodges says and assume exactly the opposite is correct.....
    He also wrote today that Ed might still win though.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    I am sure Labour supporters would not view the message as that negative, but regardless, the key there is 'will vote for', and that 35% will be enough. Perhaps we will all suffer for such foolishness if that happens, but pointing that out does not appear to be convincing people to back the Tories, so what options do they have left?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015

    If this polling continues how long will Lynton last?

    They are stuck with Crosby for the campaign, but fresh broom needed on 8th May.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    'Every household in Britain' - I doubt it. Most people aren't that stupid.
    Most people don't have the choice.

    See this is where the tories are a million miles from ordinary voters
    Most people do have the choice. My income is nothing special and my wife's not working since we had a baby but we have always cut our cloth according to our income and save for a rainy day. I've as a rule saved some income on every payday since I was 17 and on minimum wage.

    People have choices. Anyone who smokes, drinks, gambles, buys drugs, eats takeaway food or eats out at a restaurant etc is making a choice. Running a surplus for a rainy day is the sane way to run your finances.
  • really not convinced that Ed is attacking the rich.. Cracking down on tax dodging and some trifling changes to employment rights. Once upon a time the top rate of tax was 95% and the unions controlled nationalised industries. The rich survived that period so I'm sure they can survive 5 years of Ed
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    If Comres shows a biggish Labour lead, then the Tories have had it.

    If Ed gets into No 10 he is going to find it a lot harder peddling his loony policies in No 10 than out of..


    Majorca is suddenly looking a nice place to retire to and taking loadsadosh at circa 1.40 to £1
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    I love the detail in the Survation polls though.

    There's a big chunk of the polling sample that is currently undecided. These are weighted down enormously even though 60% of them voted in 2010 because obviously they don't express a voting intention.

    The interesting thing is that 34% of the undecideds that voted in 2010 did so for the Tories (only 17% voted Labour & 22% voted Lib Dem) and the total group of undecideds as a whole is largely favourable to the Tories (at least compared to Labour) but they just can't bring themselves to even say they will vote for the party. It looks (from the Survation numbers) like the difference between these and the people who are current Tory voters is that they view the party as on the side of the wealthy, they have got worse off over the past 5 years, and the most important issue to them is the cost of living.

    So the trick for the Tories will be trying to get these people interested and actually turning out for the party on 7 May (based on this sample they will be unlikely to vote Labour). With the way the campaign is going I hope there are some juicy policies that will actually make people like these undecideds better off.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    We're not 'top Tories', and we do not run a deficit. In fact, we're likely to pay off the remainder of our mortgage this year, so we'll be debt-free. All because we're stingy gits who don't spend a great deal. And we're managing on one (albeit reasonable) salary.

    And the country is not a household budget.

    Try again.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Noticed Mr Smithson getting excited with all his post today,I wonder why ;-)

    Because my betting's looking good.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    And the right unites,all I can see is civil war.

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited April 2015

    Once upon a time the top rate of tax was 95% and the unions controlled nationalised industries. The rich survived that period so I'm sure they can survive 5 years of Ed

    Indeed. The terror in some quarters on both sides of the divide when it looks like 'the other lot' will get in is quite ridiculous most of the time. Maybe in 1979 there was a credible case that another Labour term would have done deep long-term harm to the country, but most of the time it's one modestly good politician against another. The worst was the 2008 Mayoral Election, where both sides seemed convinced London wouldn't still be standing after 4 years of the other.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    But with a hint of truth in it. Labour's campaign has been, if anything, worse.

    But I want to hear from the Lib Dems. Please...?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    We're not 'top Tories', and we do not run a deficit. In fact, we're likely to pay off the remainder of our mortgage this year, so we'll be debt-free. All because we're stingy gits who don't spend a great deal. And we're managing on one (albeit reasonable) salary.

    And the country is not a household budget.

    Try again.
    But are you happy
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    When everyone was throwing the kitchen sink at Brown and lefties on here were complaining, I distinctly remember you saying they should shut up because in politics everything is "fair game".


  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    edited April 2015

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    You won't find any argument from me. The Tories have been politically naive over the last couple of days. They need to give the country something positive a vision of Britain that people can look forwards to. Last time Dave was pimping his big society vision, it may not have been my cup of tea, but it was at least something. This time they are too bogged down in facts and statistics which just turns people off, plus a bunch of negative attacks on Ed which, again, just turns people off.

    The Tories are missing Steve Hilton big time IMO.

    Whatever people say about Labour and Ed, he is still giving people a vision of Britain, a poorer but fairer country where the wealthy are less so, but his 35% are comfortable with that and they don't seem to care that it means more taxes for everyone else and the Tories are doing literally nothing to give an opposing vision of wealth creation and positive capitalism. I said it some time last year, but the Tories seem to be scared of being capitalist and they are running away from wealth creation. It is a very big mistake. Yes social media will howl and whine if Dave and George come out in favour of it, but they will do that whatever the weather. Middle England wants wealth creation, Dave needs to offer it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.
    Oh please God no.

    Another southern Oxbridge numpty's about the last thing the Conservatives need.
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.
    As soon as the exit polls confirm the Tories are behind I'm backing Boris at any reasonable odds. Not really worth doing now on the off chance that the Tories may still be in government.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    You are just parroting what Ed said..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591


    If Ed gets into No 10 he is going to find it a lot harder peddling his loony policies in No 10 than out of..

    I have always thought that people expecting a radical Ed M in No.10 would be surprised. Things are not flexible enough to allow that, and a seasoned political animal like Ed knows that I am sure.

    As such, he'll probably not be a disaster as PM either, merely kind of crappy, which is all most of us hope for from our PMs I think,
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,044
    kle4 said:


    If Ed gets into No 10 he is going to find it a lot harder peddling his loony policies in No 10 than out of..

    I have always thought that people expecting a radical Ed M in No.10 would be surprised. Things are not flexible enough to allow that, and a seasoned political animal like Ed knows that I am sure.

    As such, he'll probably not be a disaster as PM either, merely kind of crappy, which is all most of us hope for from our PMs I think,
    Hence EICIPM :)
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited April 2015

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    Call me old fashioned but driving the British economy into a brick wall while killing millions of innocents sort of sticks in my mind as "an absolute disgrace"

    Hey what do I know though I just have to pick up the tab left by the loony left.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    really not convinced that Ed is attacking the rich.. Cracking down on tax dodging and some trifling changes to employment rights. Once upon a time the top rate of tax was 95% and the unions controlled nationalised industries. The rich survived that period so I'm sure they can survive 5 years of Ed

    No the rich didn't survive that period, the rich emigrated and took their money with them - paying no taxes to the UK.

    Even famous left-wing idols like John Lennon emigrated away from the UK removing all taxes with them.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    Disgrace , not really , but inept and following the wrong strategy , yes .
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    edited April 2015
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.
    It's a bit odd that Boris should appeal to Kippers given that he's far more fanatical about the EU and immigration than Cameron is...

    But I do agree, the Tories will have to rally around Boris quickly because if it is a Lab minority with SNP support it will be terribly unstable and could collapse at any moment.

    A quick leadership contest and then the Tories on an election will be needed within six months, IMO.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.
    Oh please God no.

    Another southern Oxbridge numpty's about the last thing the Conservatives need.
    Boris is utterly the wrong person to be PM. I'd campaign against him, and I've never campaigned.

    Although I actually quite like him.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    You are just parroting what Ed said..
    Says Polly , one of our pb tory budgies .
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    Disgrace , not really , but inept and following the wrong strategy , yes .
    Agree,just like the tory campaign so far.

  • marktheowlmarktheowl Posts: 169



    See this is where the tories are a million miles from ordinary voters

    YouTube recommended to me Russell Brand Trews nonsense yesterday and I thought why not, lets see what the idiot has to say.

    He spent 10 minutes banging on about how out of touch the Tories where, how they had people do stuff for them, etc....all while being chauffeured around London in a brand new Merc (and no he wasn't being ironic or making trying to make a comic point).

    VIVA LA REVOLUTION is all I say, only as long as I get the chauffeur driven Merc like Russell.
    If you're on the left, he's even worse as he's an idiotic embarrassment. Dismal individual like his pal Hari. The Daily Beast, which is on the left had this fantastic review of his book and his tenuous grasp of factual information.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/02/russell-brand-s-revolution-for-morons.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    But with a hint of truth in it. Labour's campaign has been, if anything, worse.

    But I want to hear from the Lib Dems. Please...?
    In what way has it been worse, Labour are up in the polls since the start and have two big leads today. Their campaign has been very, very good so far. It may not appeal to me or you, but to their 35% it has struck all of the right notes.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    So in your view its perfectly acceptable to damage the country and the economy as "all politicos do the same" - but mudslinging is an "absolute disgrace".

    Think you have your priorities backwards there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.
    Oh please God no.

    Another southern Oxbridge numpty's about the last thing the Conservatives need.
    Indeed, the Conservatives need to win seats north of Watford.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    GIN1138 said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.
    It's a bit odd that Boris should appeal to Kippers given that he's far more fanatical about the EU and immigration than Cameron is...

    Which is why the Kippers won't be flocking anywhere. The Kipper numbers will no doubt be boosted every time Boris opens his mouth and spouts some of his usual rubbish.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited April 2015
    Tim - LOL

    So your the one following him.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    But with a hint of truth in it. Labour's campaign has been, if anything, worse.

    But I want to hear from the Lib Dems. Please...?
    In what way has it been worse, Labour are up in the polls since the start and have two big leads today. Their campaign has been very, very good so far. It may not appeal to me or you, but to their 35% it has struck all of the right notes.
    Worse in terms of truthfulness and nastiness.

    And yes, that includes today's events.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited April 2015
    Indeed, the Conservatives need to win seats north of Watford.

    The ashcroft marginals polls suggest they are able to win big time in the Midlands. And parts of the North too.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    Oh my God... you're linking a tweet from there?

    Invite back the real thing instead
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    I've not noticed you condemn Ed 's oft repeated attacks on Cameron and Osborne because of their background over which they have no control.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,302
    kle4 said:


    If Ed gets into No 10 he is going to find it a lot harder peddling his loony policies in No 10 than out of..

    I have always thought that people expecting a radical Ed M in No.10 would be surprised. Things are not flexible enough to allow that, and a seasoned political animal like Ed knows that I am sure.

    As such, he'll probably not be a disaster as PM either, merely kind of crappy, which is all most of us hope for from our PMs I think,
    More terrifyingly, he could be really good...

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Pulpstar said:


    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Boris is the one leader who can appeal to both UKIP supporters and Lib Dems. The Tories will have no choice but to make him their leader in opposition.
    Oh please God no.

    Another southern Oxbridge numpty's about the last thing the Conservatives need.
    Indeed, the Conservatives need to win seats north of Watford.
    That appears to be a revelation to most PB Tories.
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Moses_ said:

    Look

    We are going to get an Ed clusterfuck government

    Anyone with any shrewd intellect will have already and certainly now be calculating how to steer clear of the final Labour catastrophe.

    To any lefties I worked fecking hard for my skills and my money, my business and those I do employ.

    I am not ever again going to let Labour use that money in a public urinal.

    Exodus?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Pendle, Warwick and Leamington, Pudsey all in danger if Boris becomes leader ! (Yes I think Andrew hangs on this time)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    But with a hint of truth in it. Labour's campaign has been, if anything, worse.

    But I want to hear from the Lib Dems. Please...?
    In what way has it been worse, Labour are up in the polls since the start and have two big leads today. Their campaign has been very, very good so far. It may not appeal to me or you, but to their 35% it has struck all of the right notes.
    Worse in terms of truthfulness and nastiness.

    And yes, that includes today's events.
    It doesn't matter. Labour strategists have realised that their 35% want to be sold this vision and it will get their man into Number 10. Very much like the SNP supporters who didn't care about the economic reality of an independent Scotland, Labour's 35% don't care that all of the changes they are proposing means higher taxes for everyone and fewer jobs. They want that society of higher taxes and more money for public services.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    Will Tim return on the day Cam, Sam and the Kids leave Downing Street?

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The worst thing for the tories is they have lost the initiative. They have lost the momentum.

    It will be very difficult to get it back.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    kle4 said:


    If Ed gets into No 10 he is going to find it a lot harder peddling his loony policies in No 10 than out of..

    I have always thought that people expecting a radical Ed M in No.10 would be surprised. Things are not flexible enough to allow that, and a seasoned political animal like Ed knows that I am sure.

    As such, he'll probably not be a disaster as PM either, merely kind of crappy, which is all most of us hope for from our PMs I think,
    More terrifyingly, he could be really good...

    That would be nice. I cannot say I'm encouraged to believe that based on what we've seen from him, but I do think Tories attempting to console themselves that they will definitely in win in 2020 at least, should Ed win in 2015, should not be too certain of that - it is predicated on the assumption Ed is a fool and will be a disaster, which as I say seems unlikely to be so extreme a reaction.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    This is all very reminiscent of the Sunday before last.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,500
    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    suggested the leaders didn't realise the country doesn't want another 5 years of uncaring top down austerity from people who don't know what scraping the barrel means.
    .

    Well, the country may not want that, but Ed M or Cameron, we're still getting top down austerity either way, and personally I don't see that the 'caring' factor will matter that much (there's only a limited set of options for cutting after all, particularly when some budgets but not all are protected), but it would appear really do think that a Labour cutting axe is better than a Tory cutting axe.
    Just run a deficit like every household in britain does apart from the top tories.
    We're not 'top Tories', and we do not run a deficit. In fact, we're likely to pay off the remainder of our mortgage this year, so we'll be debt-free. All because we're stingy gits who don't spend a great deal. And we're managing on one (albeit reasonable) salary.

    And the country is not a household budget.

    Try again.
    But are you happy
    I've spent the day out in the sunshine with my nine-month old baby, or as much time as I thought his skin could handle.

    Hell yes, I'm happy.

    Happier than a miserable, nasty Scotsman, at least.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    MaxPB said:

    weejonnie said:

    Too early to tell whether this is just a couple of blips or the beginnings of a trend to Lab.
    What it definitely isn't is the start of a move towards the Tories. So underneath all the excitement and bluster the only objective conclusion is that Ed is either saying the right thing or the acceptable thing ; but that Dave and Lynton are currently peddling the wrong message

    Ed is appealing to the 35% - and appalling to the 65%. He will say any policy that attacks 'the rich' and the great unwashed will vote for a lifestyle that they can never afford.

    When it goes down the pan - he will blame the bankers and the rich - but never himself.
    It doesn't matter. He just wants the keys to Number 10. Whatever he needs to do or say to get there seems irrelevant. Hitting the non-doms is economically damaging, hitting ZHCs is economically damaging, raising corporation tax is economically damaging. He doesn't care and neither does the segment of the electorate he is appealing to. Labour strategists have seen that they can win on 35% and they are playing a blinder to capture them.

    The best we on the centre right can hope for is that the economy holds up and the Lib Dems recover in opposition and splits the left again and UKIP subsides and the right unites properly. As for 2015-2020, it'll be a wild ride.
    Won't all politicos do the same.

    I think the Tories today have been an absolute disgrace. The attacks on Miliband smack of desperation.
    You are just parroting what Ed said..
    Says Polly , one of our pb tory budgies .

    ..still smarting from that bet on the Euro you lost..

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,387
    chestnut said:

    This is all very reminiscent of the Sunday before last.

    Clocks running down rapidly now though...

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    really not convinced that Ed is attacking the rich.. Cracking down on tax dodging and some trifling changes to employment rights. Once upon a time the top rate of tax was 95% and the unions controlled nationalised industries. The rich survived that period so I'm sure they can survive 5 years of Ed

    No the rich didn't survive that period, the rich emigrated and took their money with them - paying no taxes to the UK.

    Even famous left-wing idols like John Lennon emigrated away from the UK removing all taxes with them.
    bollox
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    I wonder if Dave needs to start worrying about his legacy ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    taffys said:

    Indeed, the Conservatives need to win seats north of Watford.

    The ashcroft marginals polls suggest they are able to win big time in the Midlands. And parts of the North too.

    CON is going to hold Warwick, Leamington and Loughborough meanwhile losing Sherwood, Broxtowe, Warwickshire North, Nuneaton in the Midlands. Being a Coventry boy it's an area I've followed quite closely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    I had not appreciated it was so extreme. Still calling this one as an easy Lab win though, depending on how bad Scotland goes.
This discussion has been closed.