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Split ticketing is still real – politicalbetting.com
Split ticketing is still real – politicalbetting.com
Although Casey only running 1.5 points, not 3.0, ahead of Harris, might end up costing him the race
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Although Casey only running 1.5 points, not 3.0, ahead of Harris, might end up costing him the race
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Trump lost in 2020 because of his inadequate response to COVID.
Biden/Harris lost in 2024 because of the inflation caused by the government stimulus to the COVID-hit economy.
If of course there is an election in 2028.
To begin with, America is a country and Europe a geographical expression. Saying there should be an EU foreign policy is fine in theory, but can anyone imagine a foreign policy on anything remotely important and controversial that would unite Ireland, Hungary, Sweden, Spain and Germany?
Then there's the fact that most smaller European countries, still the majority, have no tradition of assertive foreign policy, and no interest in it either.
There's also the EU's disastrous record on any foreign policy issue it touches, starting with the Yugoslav civil war in the 90s, and most recently its appeasement of Vladimir Putin. They make its economic record look good.
Also any significant EU move in this area, for instance to abolish unanimity in foreign policy decisions, would need treaty changes, which the EU avoids like the plague these days because of the boring need to refer them to voters, where they have a terrible record. Ireland would need a referendum and there's no way anything questioning neutrality would pass.
Finally, there's the small fact that EU countries have puny armed forces and no money to increase them significantly. And, since they let us leave, their situation is even worse.
What the deluded and fading narcissist obviously wants is for every EU country to throw its weight behind whatever France, and especially he, want to do at any moment. Even if, like confronting/appeasing Putin, it is exactly the opposite of what he was doing last month. And perhaps some EU leaders will be starry-eyed enough to fall for it. But I think that, over the long term, it's Cloud Cuckoo Land.
However - it is worth pointing out that the US didn't really see itself as a country for over a hundred years after its foundation. It saw itself as 'a union of states' (hence the name). In the civil war, the Southerners saw themselves as sticking with their country in secession even those (like Lee) who thought seceding a very bad idea. It also meant Lincoln had to jump through innumerable legal hoops at the start of the Civil War, including making it clear that individuals not states were in rebellion so Taney wouldn't try something clever via the Constitution to justify secession.
It took a number of changes, many of them external pressures (e.g. the colonial ventures of the 19th century and substantial immigration from Europe) to alter that.
Do I think that will happen in Europe? No, actually, mostly for the reasons you've said. Also, Europe is rather more ossified in its differences than America was. Equally, it isn't impossible it could under pressure from external forces (looks hard at Russia).
We see some of the same in the UK, where some voters split their votes among all the parties and others back opposition parties at council elections not so much as a protest but to try and counter-balance the party in power nationally. Sadly British local government is so emasculated that there’s really not much a council can do nowadays to ‘stand up’ to whatever the national government wants to do - those days disappeared after the 1980s.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/news/three-people-charged-in-connection-with-the-death-of-singer-liam-payne/ar-AA1tHCr0?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=35a267893496423e91d26f755c5811a0&ei=42
Given her previous form, that's nicer than what she said about Conservatives in this country.
But election results allow us to project our own particular preconceptions onto them. Whether loser or winner.
For example the current argument in the Democrats about whether Harris was insufficient liberal, or too much so (almost certainly irrelevant).
It may have been often suicidal for elected Republicans to make a stand against Trump, and maybe if Republicans had chosen someone else as candidate Trump could have wrecked their chances and there could have been a Democratic landslide, but it was obviously the right thing to do.
This started with the majority of House Republicans voting not to certify the election results 4 years ago, and the Senate Republicans voting against impeaching Trump. The only way they can justify it is by telling themselves that the alternative is worse, that Harris really is the devil incarnate, that Democrats are traitors, and that they really do love Big Brother.
The United States was never a done deal (some might argue it could still 'break up').
Certain British statesmen probably could have asked James Madison - standing amongst the burnt buildings of Washington DC in 1815 - "so how's independence going for you?".
Long-term? "Very well thank you".
We just don't know yet how he's going to govern; the appointment of Wiles as CoS keeps that ambiguous for now; it suggests the possibility of a degree of pragmatism, though by no means guaranteeing it.
In the meantime the Lib Dems will have the luxury of saying what most Labour (and Tory) politicians think.
I just realised this morning that “Kamala” is the wealth obsessed courtesan in Siddhartha. She then repents and converts to Buddhism. I’m not sure this tells us anything but there you are.
Only during the Civil War was that slightly disturbed.
Had Biden voluntarily stepped down before the primaries, he'd have had an unassailable place near the top of the list of presidents.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has written an article that I can't disagree with.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/08/trump-restoration-an-unmitigated-disaster-for-germany/
While we will have problems with Trump being in the Whitehouse - it's nothing compared to the pain tariffs will impose on Germany who are already in a position of zero growth..
I agree with you, I don't think it *will* happen in Europe, but I can see why others would think it *might*.
We'll see in due course.
The Trump presidency is going to be bad - particularly so for the rest of the world - but 'bad' encompasses a very large range of possible futures.
Same goes in reverse for the Republicans. A lot of their triumph was down to being out of office at the right time. Looking at the global picture and what happened in the swing states, if anything their campaign worked against them.
But a win is a win. And yes, the same applies to SKSICIPM.
The USA was forged through iron and blood.
Is there any EU leader who would be willing to do the same? The EU will never be a nation, unless their leaders are willing to smash in their enemies’ faces.
The other take was a land for peace deal in Ukraine now seems very much an accepted thing.
Trump won a majority of the vote. The first time a Republican had done so for 20 years. SKS barely scraped 30%.
You can't dress that up. And the more you do the longer his opponents will be out of office.
On another point @Luckyguy1983 thought that the story of the guy who made a fortune on betting on a poll on 'How you think your neighbours will vote' was actually really shy Trump voters really saying how they would vote. I disagree. Why not just take the poll on face value. Political parties canvas for just this sort of info. Many of us here do just this by talking to voters and know whether we are winning or losing and change our tactics accordingly. When you talk to neighbours you get a feeling for what is happening. If you have the accumulated data of thousands of these opinions you have a good feel.
Credit to the guy for doing this, but let's not misinterpret what happened and take the obvious evidence on face value.
Only three of yesterday's byelection results have been reported overnight:
Wyre, Marsh Mill: RUK gain from C
Blackpool, Bispham: Lab gain from C
Bracknell, Great Hollands: Lab hold
6 seats to declare today, Previews at andrewspreviews.substack.com
https://bsky.app/profile/andrewteale.bsky.social/post/3lag7xrvsiz2z
Still to come, five in Scotland and a Green defence in Herefordshire.
There's a subset of countries - along with the UK - far keener on a military alliance against Russia than is the EU as a whole, where attitudes range from support, through indifference, to outright hostility.
A partition of Ukraine engineered by Trump might change that, but I don't see that it will.
His own VP made similar statements !
As long as you arse lick Trump he’s quite happy to be forgiving.
The Telegraph's front page caption to Barron Trump (and Nigel Farage).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6ky5g82wyo
It was Barron who convinced The Donald to appear on a series of podcasts, culminating with Joe Rogan, as discussed on pb by Leon.
...
Crucially, however, it is an environment beloved of younger men – 18 to 34, the so-called “bro vote” – a demographic with huge electoral potential for Republicans, given its widely reported Rightward drift in recent years, but one which has traditionally proven elusive at the polls.
...
All the while he largely eschewed interviews with the traditional media.
...
There is no real journalism in any, or little evidence of Mr Trump being held to account.
But in one sense the format presents a different challenge: that of appearing at ease and normal during long, informal conversations, a prospect some politicians fear more than a set-piece grilling.
And the discussions are long: more than three hours in the case of the Joe Rogan interview, which generated 45 million views on YouTube; one hour 17 minutes in sit-down with Adin Ross.
But it seemed to suit the former president. Indeed, he seemed arguably at his best. He is never not the essential Trump of old: boastful, hyperbolic and casual with the truth.
But in these podcasts he adopts a far softer tone than on the campaign trail: mischievous, witty, generous at times.
He seems genuinely at ease, not to mention knowledgeable, discussing UFC, wrestling and the minutiae of American Football.
...
The numbers speak for themselves.
Younger voters traditionally lean Democrat but Harris only won the 18 to 29-year-old vote by 11 points, a brutal drop from Biden’s 24 and Clinton’s 19.
...
The contrast with the Harris campaign could not have been starker, relying on endorsements from rich Hollywood stars whose lives are so far removed from those of the voters they were hoping to reach.
If they can stomach it, the party will surely pay more heed to the manosphere next time.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/11/07/how-barron-trump-helped-his-dad-win-the-bro-vote/ (£££)
There is no alternative to NATO until there is (that won't be soon) and the threat is real. Therefore a realistic view towards the USA, holding our friends close, is non negotiable.
On their own European forces are inadequate. Therefore the position of France and the UK as the essential and only non USA deterrent is non negotiable.
Rearming to the level of a European based deterrent is non negotiable in a world as dark as it has become.
All of which is sad.
Yesterday an acquaintance surprised me by saying that she was sick of Germany wasting so much money on Ukraine "when there are people in Germany who are cold and hungry" and therefore that she was going to vote AfD. It was the voting AfD bit that surprised me. I reminded her that I am myself an immigrant and that for me the AfD was an "absolutes No-Go" as they say round here.
The most clear manifestation in the States is those 'safe' states for either Rep or Dem where, nevertheless, the elected official in charge of elections and the legal process is often from the opposite party.
The Bispham result was a bit odd. Labour’s vote share dropped sharply, but they squeezed a win, because the right wing vote was split between Conservatives, Reform, and an independent Conservative.
Flupfels.
(Finland, Lithuania, UK, Poland, France, Estonia, Latvia, Sweden).
Nice German or Belgian sounding word, in case either of those countries would like to join eventually.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1854678224686792937?t=xafJ8qvhy8EcVl8vCCVWrw&s=19
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1854675532954144892?t=3l7GujzUSDX-ffZ-aJA65Q&s=19
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1854681121478353401?t=dmfWq7nDsmoroHJZfm9g_w&s=19
And thanks for the local factors on Bispham- there are always local factors.
Whoops-a-daisy Australia.
Although to be fair India A are having an equally torrid time.
Most of them on this side of the Atlantic retain some semblance of distancing and critique for now, but it won’t last. Watch as the right wing media in the UK slowly embraces MAGA. It’s not long till “Hurrah for the redcaps” articles start popping up in the Daily Mail.
A bug question is sanctions: do they remain on Russia, and if so, how strongly? Gaining Ukrainian territory is the visible part of what Putin wants. The removal of sanctions is the invisible, and perhaps most important, part.
Ukraine loses those areas already under Russian control in exchange for an end to the war . A buffer zone is set up and Ukraine receIves security guarantees .
How long we take to get there I’m not sure . Putin might however feel enabled to think he can go for the whole country but could Trump say look , make a deal , proclaim mission accomplished or we’ll continue to support Ukraine .
But, as Vito Corleone puts it "a lawyer with his briefcase can steal as much as a hundred men, armed with guns." The same is true of investment bankers.
I remember emerging from the train station into a gale, carrying rain, and water off the Irish Sea, only to spot a dog rolling in horseshit. It summed the place up, really.
Harris has lost now, you can drop the paranoia...
Shocked by the slogan to be honest. Make Selby great again? That implies it was great in the past
(The Abbey is a thing of beauty though - would be seen as a much bigger deal if it wasn't for York Minster just down the road)
Trump's win has changed everything with unknown consequences
It has certainly seen many of his opponents spiral down into despair and disbelief
It is a warning to all politicians that whilst the electorate do not follow day to day politics, as the politically engaged like us do, they certainly have strong opinions and will exercise them when they are given the opportunity
I can see Farage milking this and having an increased effect here sadly, but it will be fascinating going forward
What the media and the commentariat want are stories. Good government is usually bland and boring, generating few 'real' stories. Someone like Trump provides them with a massive number of stories, both now and in the future. Even when he does 'good' things, he does it in such a way that there is a story.
So Trump is much better for business than Harris - because he provides them with stories.
I remember a BBC tennis commentator talking when Pete Sampras announced his retirement. He said he was glad Sampras was retiring, as he was fairly boring to interview and did not generate many stories. I thought it was quite an admission about someone who was arguably the best ever player at the time.
A joint statement (or one just from the EU) saying that EU/single market/customs union/EEA/EFTA can be discussed om the basis of such a derogation would transform the current political climate. Once Europe starts getting serious about military matters it needs the UK, and we need them.
Trumpworld has been briefing that the U.S. will have no part in those "guarantees". In that case, Trump's willingness to hand over slices of Ukraine extends only as far as Ukraine and Europe are willing to accept his selling them out.
How far is that ?
We're somewhat better placed than (say) Germany for that negotiation, but it's going to be painful. We simply have to accept that for the time being the US is, in trade terms, something of an adversary.
I can recall the media doing the same to people in Conservative government re foreign leaders. Remember the whole "Full Tonto" storm? Which included some people here demanding the UK Defence Sec resign.
On the Channel 4 "election night", there was a desperation from the talking heads to try and get Boris Johnson to say not nice things about Trump. To create exactly this kind of story.
Try and get someone on the record about Xi and the actual, literal genocide his regime has been committing over the decades.
The head, the moral compass, all those things learned at school and Sunday school: they have been saying “Trump is a bad man, a misogynist and narcissist, a liar, a budding autocrat. He must be condemned”. The heart, deep down - the subconscious Mr Hyde to the conscious Dr Jevkyll - that’s been whispering “Trump is on my side. Trump hates the things and the people I hate. Trump is fun. Secretly I’d love to live the way he lives. I kind of like him”.
While he was a loser the head easily won out. Now he’s a winner again the heart is coming riding back.
It's not paranoid to be concerned about what Trump might do towards weakening US democracy.
However, freedom of movement is at the heart of the EU project and I cannot see it happening
‘MAKE AMERICA GREAT BRITAIN AGAIN’
For example, there is a quite substantial support (but minority) for *imposing* land-for-peace deal in Germany. Because of a belief that the current economic problems are as a result of the war.
The four Freedoms:
Free movement of Goods
Free movement of Capital
Freedom to establish and provide Services
Free movement of Labour
I suspect the intention of Freedom of Labour was to allow people to move freely round Europe but working and studying - the notion of moving from X to Y "to look for work" is where it's come unstuck as naturally people from poorer areas have gone to the richer areas or simply followed the money as people have for centuries.
The alternative would be a bureaucracy of work permits or visas whereby you could only enter Y from X if you had a confirmed job offer and confirmed accommodation in Y. That's how many other countries operate and it works for them but we (or rather Europe) didn't want the complications of such a system - better to let people freely from X to Y, A, B, C or wherever just as they could within X itself.
The most likely outcome would be the sort of one sided arrangement that would deliver to our farmers something rather less palatable than 20% inheritance tax on their estates.
I've always thought (and said at the beginning when PBers were doing 'hilarious' jokes about T34s being reactivated) that absent total victory or defeat for one side or another, the Russo-Ukraine war would end in a negotiation with either Russia or Ukraine in an advantageous postion. Unfortunately atm it seems Ukraine is at a disadvantage.
Maybe at the time of the Kursk successes and with a view to a possible Trump II, Zhelensky should have made a serious bid for a negotiation. Perhaps he did, we just don't know.