Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
I am am not a rich pensioner by any means. Fixed income rots your standard of living.
Very true, but as BigG has, to his credit, pointed out on numerous occasions, the triple lock is silly. The logical end point of the guarantee, unless wage rises consistently exceed both 2.5% and the rate of inflation, is that workers' entire incomes will have to be confiscated in taxes to pay the state pension bill.
Something has to give. The pension should be pegged to wages and the rest of the guarantee should be binned.
The theory of it was sound enough- the basic pension had drifted a long way from national prosperity (hence the genuine need for WFA in 1997), and the means-tested bit had become so ubiquitous that it was a disincentive to saving. So letting the basic pension float upwards a fair bit over a number of years was probably a sensible aim. When it was devised, did anyone talk about what conditions should cause the lock to be unlocked? Because that seems pretty important.
(The other problem is that, whenever it happens, a chunk of the media are going to go absolutely bezerk. Even broad consensus and a long leadin won't necessarily be enough.)
Ending the triple lock is probably something that will never happen unless both main parties agree on it.
Not necessarily.
If Labour promised to end it at in 2029, the Tories would have a difficult question about how they propose to pay for it, were they to campaign on it.
I have long said the time to end the triple lock was after the Covid crisis ended. A vast amount of treasure - and liberty - was expended to ensure the elderly were protected. A quid pro quo should have been exacted.
Now, years later, everyone has forgotten government largesse (witness the July election) and the noise you have heard over winter fuel with seem as pin dropping compared to the roar of outrage that would affect ALL pensioners.
UK businesses have both hands tied behind their backs. Will only get worse following the budget. No idea why any business would locate in the UK now.
Could you explain how an average figure from 2023 under a previous Government can be characterised as "is" in November 2024?
Do you have data from 2024 Q3?
You want me to explain how UK average electric costs for businesses in 2023 impacts businesses and their likelihood to locate in the UK now? Do you have any data that tells me that the UK has dramatically turned this around in 2024? Regardless of who is in government.
You made an assertion for Nov 2024 based on data that is 18 months old, in a rapidly changing environment.
I'm asking if you have any relevant data that supports your assertion.
If not, I will discount it and move on.
Do you have any such data?
Best you move on if you can't think it through.
Noted. which I interpret as "No, I haven't any data to support my assertion, so I'm going passive-aggressive instead".
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
Given Scottish Government Finances I would love to know where the money is coming from...
1.5 billion Barnett consequentials apparently
Taking money from the NHS to give it to rich pensioners. Will it be a vote winner?
Labour pushing hard on these pay deals as they promised:
Ross Lydall @RossLydall Revealed: 'ground-breaking' deal offered by @TfL to Tube drivers to get them to call off strikes: 🔴 Four-day week 🔴4.5% pay rise 🔴Paid meal breaks 🔴2.5 hours a week less work 🔴 35-hour working week 🔴Extra week's paid paternity leave Full story coming up @EveningStandard
They're tough negotiators, labour.
One has to draw the conclusion that Sir Keir Freebie couldn't negotiate a discount at SCS
He’d pay full price at Pizza Express or Carpetright.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
I am am not a rich pensioner by any means. Fixed income rots your standard of living.
Very true, but as BigG has, to his credit, pointed out on numerous occasions, the triple lock is silly. The logical end point of the guarantee, unless wage rises consistently exceed both 2.5% and the rate of inflation, is that workers' entire incomes will have to be confiscated in taxes to pay the state pension bill.
Something has to give. The pension should be pegged to wages and the rest of the guarantee should be binned.
That is the reducto ad wossname but we are a long way off spending our whole tax take on pensions just yet. As things stand, our pensions are low compared with our peers. Another pension cost, rarely mentioned by the well-paid pundits who benefit from it, is higher rate tax relief on contributions.
This presumably is the "but our state pensions are still crap relative to those in Europe" argument that is always wheeled out, which ignores the outsized role played by occupational schemes in overall UK provision. Once again, if overall UK provision were that bad then the average pensioner wouldn't be better off than the average worker.
And yes, the point at which pension spending chews up an impossible percentage of earned incomes is still a long way off, but the damage is incremental. The higher the proportion of state spending that goes on the elderly, the less is left over for the benefit of everybody else. And when more tax has to be raised for pensioner benefits, the Government will always extract the bulk of it from workers, just as has happened with the employer NI hike (the cost of which will be recouped by businesses through price hikes and, crucially, yet more wage suppression.)
Simply, an endless regime of more goodies for the retired paid for by everyone else isn't sustainable.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
And that's one of those problems that's much easier to state than to solve.
How do you win back a decent slice of the Reform vote without losing even more centrists? How do you then tack back to the centre without losing those Reformers again?
Anyone who can untie that knot deserves to be PM.
The unsatisfying answer is do very little and hope Labour screw up and/or the economy tanks.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Though remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers. There is some appetite for the populist left.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in Italy with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and 2008 crash and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Labour pushing hard on these pay deals as they promised:
Ross Lydall @RossLydall Revealed: 'ground-breaking' deal offered by @TfL to Tube drivers to get them to call off strikes: 🔴 Four-day week 🔴4.5% pay rise 🔴Paid meal breaks 🔴2.5 hours a week less work 🔴 35-hour working week 🔴Extra week's paid paternity leave Full story coming up @EveningStandard
They're tough negotiators, labour.
One has to draw the conclusion that Sir Keir Freebie couldn't negotiate a discount at SCS
He’d pay full price at Pizza Express or Carpetright.
I can imagine him on Bargain Hunt. “Is that your worst price?”
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
I am am not a rich pensioner by any means. Fixed income rots your standard of living.
Very true, but as BigG has, to his credit, pointed out on numerous occasions, the triple lock is silly. The logical end point of the guarantee, unless wage rises consistently exceed both 2.5% and the rate of inflation, is that workers' entire incomes will have to be confiscated in taxes to pay the state pension bill.
Something has to give. The pension should be pegged to wages and the rest of the guarantee should be binned.
The theory of it was sound enough- the basic pension had drifted a long way from national prosperity (hence the genuine need for WFA in 1997), and the means-tested bit had become so ubiquitous that it was a disincentive to saving. So letting the basic pension float upwards a fair bit over a number of years was probably a sensible aim. When it was devised, did anyone talk about what conditions should cause the lock to be unlocked? Because that seems pretty important.
(The other problem is that, whenever it happens, a chunk of the media are going to go absolutely bezerk. Even broad consensus and a long leadin won't necessarily be enough.)
Ending the triple lock is probably something that will never happen unless both main parties agree on it.
Not necessarily.
If Labour promised to end it at in 2029, the Tories would have a difficult question about how they propose to pay for it, were they to campaign on it.
The politically expedient thing to do would be to announce an end to the triple lock and replacement with, say, a link to wages during a year when wage growth is the highest of the 3 triple lock variables. That way Pensioners see no loss in the year of announcement. By the time the next year comes around the new system has already been in place for 12 months and any resistance is likely to be seem futile.
But I thought the same about re-indexing fuel duty this year while pump prices are low, and unaccountably they didn't do it, instead reducing the lower threshold for employer NICs in a way that puts huge pressure on important sectors of the economy.
Labour pushing hard on these pay deals as they promised:
Ross Lydall @RossLydall Revealed: 'ground-breaking' deal offered by @TfL to Tube drivers to get them to call off strikes: 🔴 Four-day week 🔴4.5% pay rise 🔴Paid meal breaks 🔴2.5 hours a week less work 🔴 35-hour working week 🔴Extra week's paid paternity leave Full story coming up @EveningStandard
They're tough negotiators, labour.
One has to draw the conclusion that Sir Keir Freebie couldn't negotiate a discount at SCS
He’d pay full price at Pizza Express or Carpetright.
SKS: the man who went shopping at DFS the day there was no sale on.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
Given Scottish Government Finances I would love to know where the money is coming from...
1.5 billion Barnett consequentials apparently
Taking money from the NHS to give it to rich pensioners. Will it be a vote winner?
Possibly not, given that it's robbing Peter to pay Paul. The retired are also the main users of the NHS.
That said, this is Scotland so, if the SNP can claim credit for the handouts but successfully pin the blame for crap healthcare provision on Westminster stinginess then they could still reap the benefits.
This is the latest from my MP Lee Anderson, greeting the Trump victory in the Express:
Trump’s victory came as a surprise for many, likely misrepresented by the media as a closer race than it was. He has secured a landslide victory over Kamala, gaining control of the Senate and Congress, which now allows him to fully fulfil the promises he made throughout this historic campaign.
He doesn't explain how 50.7%: 47.7% is a "landslide", even in Usonian terms. And we don't have a result on Congress yet (unless it arrived this morning and I missed it).
Trump understood that a strong, independent Britain would benefit the world, and he was prepared to work with us to forge a robust trade deal that could have bolstered our economy and ensured our success outside the EU.
I don't know what Anderson is inhaling, but it's something exotic.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
And that's one of those problems that's much easier to state than to solve.
How do you win back a decent slice of the Reform vote without losing even more centrists? How do you then tack back to the centre without losing those Reformers again?
Anyone who can untie that knot deserves to be PM.
The unsatisfying answer is do very little and hope Labour screw up and/or the economy tanks.
A winning strategy so far....
Given the country is essentially centre right, it works roughly two thirds of the time for the Tories and a third of the time for Labour. There is rarely a better strategy!
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
Given Scottish Government Finances I would love to know where the money is coming from...
1.5 billion Barnett consequentials apparently
Taking money from the NHS to give it to rich pensioners. Will it be a vote winner?
Possibly not, given that it's robbing Peter to pay Paul. The retired are also the main users of the NHS.
That said, this is Scotland so, if the SNP can claim credit for the handouts but successfully pin the blame for crap healthcare provision on Westminster stinginess then they could still reap the benefits.
I don't think that's going to work for them in the way it used to because they have local tax raising powers.
Starmer needs to get himself to Kyiv fairly soon in a show of solidarity. Hopefully something is being cooked up behind the scenes pan Europe. Even if it isn't big it needs to be something.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
And that's one of those problems that's much easier to state than to solve.
How do you win back a decent slice of the Reform vote without losing even more centrists? How do you then tack back to the centre without losing those Reformers again?
Anyone who can untie that knot deserves to be PM.
The unsatisfying answer is do very little and hope Labour screw up and/or the economy tanks.
A winning strategy so far....
Given the country is essentially centre right, it works roughly two thirds of the time for the Tories and a third of the time for Labour. There is rarely a better strategy!
Helped by Labour having a fundamentally broken business model that works roughly 0% of the time.
As we are seeing yet again, the private sector is being squeezed wih unsustainalbe levels of tax and borrowing for the public sector paymasters of Labour.
I'm starting a campaign to renationalise Royal Mail so that I can get some of this 12% action, rather than having my payslip "protected"
As another part of the public sector, we're being offered 2.5%.
Of course, seeing what everyone else in the public sector are getting, the inclination to accept this is pretty low. And thus giving into strike action begets more strike action. Not that the public is quaking in its boots at the prospect of generic public sector functionaries going on strike, of course.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
And that's one of those problems that's much easier to state than to solve.
How do you win back a decent slice of the Reform vote without losing even more centrists? How do you then tack back to the centre without losing those Reformers again?
Anyone who can untie that knot deserves to be PM.
I don't think it's as insurmountable as you believe. There's a clump of voters the Tories could win back from reform probably without too much change, the reluctant reform voter who wanted a change in government, essentially Tory protest voters. I think basic competence and a binding promise to bring down all forms of immigration will win enough of these voters back, it doesn't necessarily need a big commitment like leaving the ECHR.
In the centre it's just waiting for Labour to implode, which is already underway. We've had the first Tory poll lead and Labour didn't have a big popular wave of support in the election, people reluctantly voted for them on the basis of the Tories being worse. If the Tories are able to successfully jettison the Liz Truss image by 2029 it's game on, I think the Tories could easily get to 36-38% if Kemi is even a little bit successful
I'm starting a campaign to renationalise Royal Mail so that I can get some of this 12% action, rather than having my payslip "protected"
When I was a boy a first class stamp was 3 old pennies. Now it's 1.65 or one pound thirteen shillings that's 156 plus 240= 396. Now 132 times as expensive at in 1966
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
Ballot Box Scotland @BallotBoxScot Fraserburgh and District (Aberdeenshire) by-election, first preferences:
Conservative: 1145 (36.3%, +3.9) SNP: 895 (28.4%, +8.4) Reform UK: 817 (25.9%, new) Lib Dem: 222 (7%, +2.2) Family: 71 (2.3%, +1.3) (Inds won 32.1%, 3.9%, Alba 5.8% in 2022)
Conservative elected stage TBC.
Surprised at how well Reform are doing across Scotland. Interesting second preferences: LD voters - 35 to Reform, 51 to SNP, 67 to Con Reform voters - 147 to SNP, 331 to Con
Scotland has weirdly high Trump support, so the Reform figures aren't that surprising.
In some respects we are a much more divided country than England, with double the proportion of people living in flats (tenements) in highly dense cities, yet an extensive rural population. We don't do suburbia and towns in the same way England does.
I suspect the higher Trump support is an artifice of the Rangers/Celtic thang.
I'm starting a campaign to renationalise Royal Mail so that I can get some of this 12% action, rather than having my payslip "protected"
When I was a boy a first class stamp was 3 old pennies. Now it's 1.65 or one pound thirteen shillings that's 156 plus 240= 396. Now 132 times as expensive at in 1966
And interestingly that's about double what you'd expect it to be for "price inflation"
UK businesses have both hands tied behind their backs. Will only get worse following the budget. No idea why any business would locate in the UK now.
Could you explain how an average figure from 2023 under a previous Government can be characterised as "is" in November 2024?
Do you have data from 2024 Q3?
You want me to explain how UK average electric costs for businesses in 2023 impacts businesses and their likelihood to locate in the UK now? Do you have any data that tells me that the UK has dramatically turned this around in 2024? Regardless of who is in government.
You made an assertion for Nov 2024 based on data that is 18 months old, in a rapidly changing environment.
I'm asking if you have any relevant data that supports your assertion.
If not, I will discount it and move on.
Do you have any such data?
Best you move on if you can't think it through.
Noted. which I interpret as "No, I haven't any data to support my assertion, so I'm going passive-aggressive instead".
Have a good afternoon .
If you had an alternative argument, you'd be able to back it up with alternative info. Instead you seem to go around " " making up quotes to back up some ill thought through comments you make. "Enjoy your afternoon too." " "
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression doesn't seem to. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
Its not very surprising.
Inflation hits anyone who still needs to budget (70-80% of the country) a fair bit. Recessions hit the 10% or so who lose their jobs very hard.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
I am am not a rich pensioner by any means. Fixed income rots your standard of living.
Very true, but as BigG has, to his credit, pointed out on numerous occasions, the triple lock is silly. The logical end point of the guarantee, unless wage rises consistently exceed both 2.5% and the rate of inflation, is that workers' entire incomes will have to be confiscated in taxes to pay the state pension bill.
Something has to give. The pension should be pegged to wages and the rest of the guarantee should be binned.
The theory of it was sound enough- the basic pension had drifted a long way from national prosperity (hence the genuine need for WFA in 1997), and the means-tested bit had become so ubiquitous that it was a disincentive to saving. So letting the basic pension float upwards a fair bit over a number of years was probably a sensible aim. When it was devised, did anyone talk about what conditions should cause the lock to be unlocked? Because that seems pretty important.
(The other problem is that, whenever it happens, a chunk of the media are going to go absolutely bezerk. Even broad consensus and a long leadin won't necessarily be enough.)
Ending the triple lock is probably something that will never happen unless both main parties agree on it.
Not necessarily.
If Labour promised to end it at in 2029, the Tories would have a difficult question about how they propose to pay for it, were they to campaign on it.
Maybe. And it would support a "Labour are now the party you can trust with the public finances" narrative. Hard for the Cons to win again unless they reclaim that mantle. Although perhaps they won't try to. Perhaps they'll go the national populist route. Trump's victory makes that more likely, I think. Generally speaking we seem to be in a place where politicians are penalised for honesty about the choices we face. I'd like that to change but I don’t expect it to.
I'm starting a campaign to renationalise Royal Mail so that I can get some of this 12% action, rather than having my payslip "protected"
As another part of the public sector, we're being offered 2.5%.
Of course, seeing what everyone else in the public sector are getting, the inclination to accept this is pretty low. And thus giving into strike action begets more strike action. Not that the public is quaking in its boots at the prospect of generic public sector functionaries going on strike, of course.
I think we're being offered more than that.
I do find the 'inflation busting' public sector pay rise headlines a little hysterical. If they were never above inflation or comparable to the private sector you'd never get anyone to work there. We do better on pensions and job security, although I don't know how much of an incentive the pension actually is for people.
Anecdata from my B-in-L (steel erecting - works with the big theme parks such as Thorpe a lot, on infrastructure) - they are on their first slow down for years. Not sure why at the moment, but Thorpe etc are not going all guns blazing with new investment.
Public appetite for splashing the cash on entertainment seems weak at the moment - for my sins I'm now marketing director of a minor heritage railway, and virtually everyone in the industry is finding Christmas Santa train sales (which underpin a lot of heritage railway's business models) slow this year. We're only very slightly behind last year, but I've had to double our advertising spend to get there.
Two friends who both run businesses selling model trains (very different - one sells high end large scale model steam locos you can ride behind, the other buys bulk collections of oo gauge sort of stuff, splits it up and sells it secondhand) say the same thing - belts being tightened, sales down or requiring much more marketing activity. They blame the budget, and surrounding mood music.
My specialist engineering businesses really busy (order book is about 2-3 years long), but most of the sales reps I get in trying to sell me engineering gear are surprised we're busy and say most of their customers are depressingly quiet.
I'm starting a campaign to renationalise Royal Mail so that I can get some of this 12% action, rather than having my payslip "protected"
When I was a boy a first class stamp was 3 old pennies. Now it's 1.65 or one pound thirteen shillings that's 156 plus 240= 396. Now 132 times as expensive at in 1966
And interestingly that's about double what you'd expect it to be for "price inflation"
Average house price in 1966 (in today's money) was about three and a half grand
Ballot Box Scotland @BallotBoxScot Fraserburgh and District (Aberdeenshire) by-election, first preferences:
Conservative: 1145 (36.3%, +3.9) SNP: 895 (28.4%, +8.4) Reform UK: 817 (25.9%, new) Lib Dem: 222 (7%, +2.2) Family: 71 (2.3%, +1.3) (Inds won 32.1%, 3.9%, Alba 5.8% in 2022)
Conservative elected stage TBC.
Surprised at how well Reform are doing across Scotland. Interesting second preferences: LD voters - 35 to Reform, 51 to SNP, 67 to Con Reform voters - 147 to SNP, 331 to Con
Scotland has weirdly high Trump support, so the Reform figures aren't that surprising.
In some respects we are a much more divided country than England, with double the proportion of people living in flats (tenements) in highly dense cities, yet an extensive rural population. We don't do suburbia and towns in the same way England does.
I suspect the higher Trump support is an artifice of the Rangers/Celtic thang.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
The sugar rush public spending plans for the next couple of years are a big risk factor for inflation. I would not be surprised if Reeves tempers those plans a bit.
I'm starting a campaign to renationalise Royal Mail so that I can get some of this 12% action, rather than having my payslip "protected"
When I was a boy a first class stamp was 3 old pennies. Now it's 1.65 or one pound thirteen shillings that's 156 plus 240= 396. Now 132 times as expensive at in 1966
And interestingly that's about double what you'd expect it to be for "price inflation"
Average house price in 1966 (in today's money) was about three and a half grand
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
Biden chose to prioritise jobs. Probably correct for the economy, but evidently very bad for the Democrats' re-election prospects,
Note that the collapse of Weimar came as a result of a tariffs generated depression. They came through hyperinflation, with great hardship - and prior to the depression, Germany had exceeded its pre-war output.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
The sugar rush public spending plans for the next couple of years are a big risk factor for inflation. I would not be surprised if Reeves tempers those plans a bit.
US trade war is the biggest risk for inflation now, alongside escalation of Israel-Iran war.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
I am am not a rich pensioner by any means. Fixed income rots your standard of living.
Very true, but as BigG has, to his credit, pointed out on numerous occasions, the triple lock is silly. The logical end point of the guarantee, unless wage rises consistently exceed both 2.5% and the rate of inflation, is that workers' entire incomes will have to be confiscated in taxes to pay the state pension bill.
Something has to give. The pension should be pegged to wages and the rest of the guarantee should be binned.
The theory of it was sound enough- the basic pension had drifted a long way from national prosperity (hence the genuine need for WFA in 1997), and the means-tested bit had become so ubiquitous that it was a disincentive to saving. So letting the basic pension float upwards a fair bit over a number of years was probably a sensible aim. When it was devised, did anyone talk about what conditions should cause the lock to be unlocked? Because that seems pretty important.
(The other problem is that, whenever it happens, a chunk of the media are going to go absolutely bezerk. Even broad consensus and a long leadin won't necessarily be enough.)
Ending the triple lock is probably something that will never happen unless both main parties agree on it.
Not necessarily.
If Labour promised to end it at in 2029, the Tories would have a difficult question about how they propose to pay for it, were they to campaign on it.
Maybe. And it would support a "Labour are now the party you can trust with the public finances" narrative. Hard for the Cons to win again unless they reclaim that mantle. Although perhaps they won't try to. Perhaps they'll go the national populist route. Trump's victory makes that more likely, I think. Generally speaking we seem to be in a place where politicians are penalised for honesty about the choices we face. I'd like that to change but I don’t expect it to.
Indeed. I think the triple lock has always been a political policy not one borne of some desperate increase in pension poverty. It is basically to avoid the Gordon Brown clanger of putting pennies on the pension and getting pilloried for it.
But it is now stuck - and i don’t see how you appeal to the mass of pensioners with some appeal for the greater good.
I seem to recall some polling around Brexit that said a majority of pensioner would happily vote to leave even if it meant impoverishing their kids / grandkids.
Even today you hear pensioners claiming they have already paid for their pension. I appreciate they may not understand the vagaries of how pensions work. But, how do you get through to them that there isn’t a pile of money with their name on it. The state pension comes exclusively from today’s workers - of which there are fewer supporting more pensions.
Absent banning voting of the old and barmy no party would touch it.
I'm starting a campaign to renationalise Royal Mail so that I can get some of this 12% action, rather than having my payslip "protected"
As another part of the public sector, we're being offered 2.5%.
Of course, seeing what everyone else in the public sector are getting, the inclination to accept this is pretty low. And thus giving into strike action begets more strike action. Not that the public is quaking in its boots at the prospect of generic public sector functionaries going on strike, of course.
I think we're being offered more than that.
I do find the 'inflation busting' public sector pay rise headlines a little hysterical. If they were never above inflation or comparable to the private sector you'd never get anyone to work there. We do better on pensions and job security, although I don't know how much of an incentive the pension actually is for people.
In a free market it is surprising that the people who are the loudest complainers about the public sector, never try to work there.
For me, also an outsider who wouldnt choose to work there so probably fine to disregard, but fwiw I'd say the issue is more culture, low motivation and being messed around by politicians. That leads to poor retention of quality staff and higher pay increases to fight that battle. Fix some of the culture, provide consistency, match expectations and staffing and then maybe future pay negotiations might be easier and come in lower.
Of course the next big decision (already made, I think) will be to renew Trump's four trillion tax cut for the rich - which expires next year. Tariffs are unlikely to fund that.
Of course the next big decision (already made, I think) will be to renew Trump's four trillion tax cut for the rich - which expires next year. Tariffs are unlikely to fund that.
I'm starting a campaign to renationalise Royal Mail so that I can get some of this 12% action, rather than having my payslip "protected"
When I was a boy a first class stamp was 3 old pennies. Now it's 1.65 or one pound thirteen shillings that's 156 plus 240= 396. Now 132 times as expensive at in 1966
And interestingly that's about double what you'd expect it to be for "price inflation"
Imagine what an iphone would have cost in the 1960s.
I'm starting a campaign to renationalise Royal Mail so that I can get some of this 12% action, rather than having my payslip "protected"
When I was a boy a first class stamp was 3 old pennies. Now it's 1.65 or one pound thirteen shillings that's 156 plus 240= 396. Now 132 times as expensive at in 1966
And interestingly that's about double what you'd expect it to be for "price inflation"
Average house price in 1966 (in today's money) was about three and a half grand
About 75 times more now
Our first home here in Wales in 1965 was £3,250
It was sold last year for £260,000
I bought a house in SE Essex in 1968 for £14,000. Which the bank manager thought was expensive. It was sold earlier this year, not by me, for £700,000.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
The sugar rush public spending plans for the next couple of years are a big risk factor for inflation. I would not be surprised if Reeves tempers those plans a bit.
It's interesting that the more sensible elements of the 'Why Trump won' debate here focused on bread and butter (no pun intended) issues like the price of eggs, or the cost of a meal at a bang-average chain like the Cheesecake Factory.
The FT has already reported that hospitality is going to be hard hit by changes to NI and minimum wage, with Wetherspoons shares dropping 11% after the budget on the news of inevitable price hikes.
There's a further article in the FT today on how the NI changes are going to further inflate the already insane cost of childcare.
Others here have noted that supermarkets run on razor thin margins.
I am increasingly convinced this will be a one term Labour government, because people will feel that the pound in their pocket no longer goes so far. Sure, there's an extra $20bn for the NHS or whatever, but how often do most of us actually use it? How often do we go to the doctor, visit a hospital? For many of us the answer is infrequently. And will the improvement in such services make up for the hit we feel in the rising cost of a weekly shop, childcare costs, or a bang-average mid-range meal out in a chain pub, for example?
Labour have made difficult choices, but they are not popular choices. If elections are won on the basis of "do you feel better off than you did four years ago?" then short of an extraordinary turn of fortune in the global economy, my guess is the answer will be no.
Labour got in, simply, because it was buggins' turn. If people's living standards continue to deteriorate, it will be some other buggins' turn in 2029.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
Even in a bad recession most people keep their jobs. Everyone notices when prices go up by 20%.
I have long said the time to end the triple lock was after the Covid crisis ended. A vast amount of treasure - and liberty - was expended to ensure the elderly were protected. A quid pro quo should have been exacted.
Now, years later, everyone has forgotten government largesse (witness the July election) and the noise you have heard over winter fuel with seem as pin dropping compared to the roar of outrage that would affect ALL pensioners.
"ensure the elderly were protected" - Yes and no. It wasn't just about protecting the elderly. This is a fallacy that many younger people (at least one on here) have fallen into. The risk of the NHS collapsing wasn't just an inability to treat covid patients it was that other things would suffer too. To an extent they did already - cancer diagnosis and to some extent care, cardiac patients etc. If the hospitals had become overwhelmed we would have had storied of younger people dying when they ought not have done from non-Covid things.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
The sugar rush public spending plans for the next couple of years are a big risk factor for inflation. I would not be surprised if Reeves tempers those plans a bit.
Under New Labour departmental underspends were common when Labour first increased spending. Departments were so used to doing without that they couldn't spend the extra money. Later it became increasingly difficult to stick to budgets, because the contrary culture had taken root.
We'll see what happens, but my guess is that the recent Covid experience means that it would be hard not to spend all the money allocated.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
Recessions and inflation make themselves felt in very different ways. The thing with recessions is that their worst results are felt very unevenly - you either get laid off, or you carry on working at your normal rate.
Inflation is the opposite - everybody finds that their money doesn't go as far, and so they feel poorer.
From a political point of few, 5% of the population being very grumpy because they have been laid off is far less electorally damaging than 100% of the population being fairly grumpy because the feel 10% poorer.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
Even in a bad recession most people keep their jobs. Everyone notices when prices go up by 20%.
The depressing corollary of that is that voters will support a government that persecutes a minority of the population, even brutally and violently, over one that makes everyone a little bit worse off.
It’s why policy discussions on human rights, law and order and civil liberties need to bring home the real world risks for everyone, not just the supposed target groups.
Watch how this government make use of the last government’s curbs on disruptive protests if the IHT protesting farmers start blocking city centre roads with their tractors.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
Even in a bad recession most people keep their jobs. Everyone notices when prices go up by 20%.
The depressing corollary of that is that voters will support a government that persecutes a minority of the population, even brutally and violently, over one that makes everyone a little bit worse off.
It’s why policy discussions on human rights, law and order and civil liberties need to bring home the real world risks for everyone, not just the supposed target groups.
Watch how this government make use of the last government’s curbs on disruptive protests if the IHT protesting farmers start blocking city centre roads with their tractors.
I'm interested to see whether the farmers will be locked up as JSO were, and what the reaction will be if they are.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
The sugar rush public spending plans for the next couple of years are a big risk factor for inflation. I would not be surprised if Reeves tempers those plans a bit.
It's interesting that the more sensible elements of the 'Why Trump won' debate here focused on bread and butter (no pun intended) issues like the price of eggs, or the cost of a meal at a bang-average chain like the Cheesecake Factory.
The FT has already reported that hospitality is going to be hard hit by changes to NI and minimum wage, with Wetherspoons shares dropping 11% after the budget on the news of inevitable price hikes.
There's a further article in the FT today on how the NI changes are going to further inflate the already insane cost of childcare.
Others here have noted that supermarkets run on razor thin margins.
I am increasingly convinced this will be a one term Labour government, because people will feel that the pound in their pocket no longer goes so far. Sure, there's an extra $20bn for the NHS or whatever, but how often do most of us actually use it? How often do we go to the doctor, visit a hospital? For many of us the answer is infrequently. And will the improvement in such services make up for the hit we feel in the rising cost of a weekly shop, childcare costs, or a bang-average mid-range meal out in a chain pub, for example?
Labour have made difficult choices, but they are not popular choices. If elections are won on the basis of "do you feel better off than you did four years ago?" then short of an extraordinary turn of fortune in the global economy, my guess is the answer will be no.
Labour got in, simply, because it was buggins' turn. If people's living standards continue to deteriorate, it will be some other buggins' turn in 2029.
Agree with this analysis. The public are very volatile. Look at that Senedd poll : Reform could come third in Wales.
Labour desperately need to find their growth strategy and messaging.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
Recessions and inflation make themselves felt in very different ways. The thing with recessions is that their worst results are felt very unevenly - you either get laid off, or you carry on working at your normal rate.
Inflation is the opposite - everybody finds that their money doesn't go as far, and so they feel poorer.
From a political point of few, 5% of the population being very grumpy because they have been laid off is far less electorally damaging than 100% of the population being fairly grumpy because the feel 10% poorer.
We should probably distinguish cyclical recessions from secular depressions or chronic stagnation. The latter affects almost everyone. But the reaction tends to be emigration rather than revolution.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
Even in a bad recession most people keep their jobs. Everyone notices when prices go up by 20%.
The depressing corollary of that is that voters will support a government that persecutes a minority of the population, even brutally and violently, over one that makes everyone a little bit worse off.
It’s why policy discussions on human rights, law and order and civil liberties need to bring home the real world risks for everyone, not just the supposed target groups.
Watch how this government make use of the last government’s curbs on disruptive protests if the IHT protesting farmers start blocking city centre roads with their tractors.
Sorry but that was all a result of the stupid Supreme Curt ruling that a reasonable amount of disruption should be expected in a democracy. Well what is a reasonable amount of disruption? I don't see why other people's liberty to protest should interfere with my liberty to go about as I wish. It's quite possible to protest without causing disruption you just wont get as much attention and closes down the option of direct action.
I'm starting a campaign to renationalise Royal Mail so that I can get some of this 12% action, rather than having my payslip "protected"
When I was a boy a first class stamp was 3 old pennies. Now it's 1.65 or one pound thirteen shillings that's 156 plus 240= 396. Now 132 times as expensive at in 1966
And interestingly that's about double what you'd expect it to be for "price inflation"
Average house price in 1966 (in today's money) was about three and a half grand
About 75 times more now
Our first home here in Wales in 1965 was £3,250
It was sold last year for £260,000
In the SE it's much worse than that. My parents' house bought in 1963 for £4k would now sell for about £875k.
If it increased in line with my public sector father's salary (£1k) - he was able to borrow 3 times his salary with a 25% deposit, £4k then would be about £150k now. Or if salaries had kept pace, an EO in the DWP should be paid £217k now.
Of course the next big decision (already made, I think) will be to renew Trump's four trillion tax cut for the rich - which expires next year. Tariffs are unlikely to fund that.
The deficit is going to rocket under him. He has no incentive to keep a lid on it.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
Even in a bad recession most people keep their jobs. Everyone notices when prices go up by 20%.
It’s why policy discussions on human rights, law and order and civil liberties need to bring home the real world risks for everyone, not just the supposed target groups.
At the same time, majorities need to be satisfied that such laws are not being weaponised against them.
I'm starting a campaign to renationalise Royal Mail so that I can get some of this 12% action, rather than having my payslip "protected"
When I was a boy a first class stamp was 3 old pennies. Now it's 1.65 or one pound thirteen shillings that's 156 plus 240= 396. Now 132 times as expensive at in 1966
And interestingly that's about double what you'd expect it to be for "price inflation"
Average house price in 1966 (in today's money) was about three and a half grand
About 75 times more now
Our first home here in Wales in 1965 was £3,250
It was sold last year for £260,000
In the SE it's much worse than that. My parents' house bought in 1963 for £4k would now sell for about £875k.
If it increased in line with my public sector father's salary (£1k) - he was able to borrow 3 times his salary with a 25% deposit, £4k then would be about £150k now. Or if salaries had kept pace, an EO in the DWP should be paid £217k now.
Actually that's quite a jolt working that out. At no point in my working career (and I'm well inside the top 10% of earners nationwide) have I earned enough to be able to afford a 75% mortgage on the house I grew up in. Which was a typical small interwar 2 and a half bedroom semi.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
Even in a bad recession most people keep their jobs. Everyone notices when prices go up by 20%.
The depressing corollary of that is that voters will support a government that persecutes a minority of the population, even brutally and violently, over one that makes everyone a little bit worse off.
It’s why policy discussions on human rights, law and order and civil liberties need to bring home the real world risks for everyone, not just the supposed target groups.
Watch how this government make use of the last government’s curbs on disruptive protests if the IHT protesting farmers start blocking city centre roads with their tractors.
I'm interested to see whether the farmers will be locked up as JSO were, and what the reaction will be if they are.
If they act in the same way in similar circumstances, they should receive similar consequences.
I do not think farmers will make the mistake of thinking they are not subject to law.
A left-liberal friend just texted: "I heard an interview over lunch with an American journalist who said the Democrats lost because they didn't go hard enough into identity politics. Everyone cheered.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
I am am not a rich pensioner by any means. Fixed income rots your standard of living.
Very true, but as BigG has, to his credit, pointed out on numerous occasions, the triple lock is silly. The logical end point of the guarantee, unless wage rises consistently exceed both 2.5% and the rate of inflation, is that workers' entire incomes will have to be confiscated in taxes to pay the state pension bill.
Something has to give. The pension should be pegged to wages and the rest of the guarantee should be binned.
The theory of it was sound enough- the basic pension had drifted a long way from national prosperity (hence the genuine need for WFA in 1997), and the means-tested bit had become so ubiquitous that it was a disincentive to saving. So letting the basic pension float upwards a fair bit over a number of years was probably a sensible aim. When it was devised, did anyone talk about what conditions should cause the lock to be unlocked? Because that seems pretty important.
(The other problem is that, whenever it happens, a chunk of the media are going to go absolutely bezerk. Even broad consensus and a long leadin won't necessarily be enough.)
Ending the triple lock is probably something that will never happen unless both main parties agree on it.
Not necessarily.
If Labour promised to end it at in 2029, the Tories would have a difficult question about how they propose to pay for it, were they to campaign on it.
Maybe. And it would support a "Labour are now the party you can trust with the public finances" narrative. Hard for the Cons to win again unless they reclaim that mantle. Although perhaps they won't try to. Perhaps they'll go the national populist route. Trump's victory makes that more likely, I think. Generally speaking we seem to be in a place where politicians are penalised for honesty about the choices we face. I'd like that to change but I don’t expect it to.
Indeed. I think the triple lock has always been a political policy not one borne of some desperate increase in pension poverty. It is basically to avoid the Gordon Brown clanger of putting pennies on the pension and getting pilloried for it.
But it is now stuck - and i don’t see how you appeal to the mass of pensioners with some appeal for the greater good.
I seem to recall some polling around Brexit that said a majority of pensioner would happily vote to leave even if it meant impoverishing their kids / grandkids.
Even today you hear pensioners claiming they have already paid for their pension. I appreciate they may not understand the vagaries of how pensions work. But, how do you get through to them that there isn’t a pile of money with their name on it. The state pension comes exclusively from today’s workers - of which there are fewer supporting more pensions.
Absent banning voting of the old and barmy no party would touch it.
The median voter is (I think) aged about 52, with 29 (male) or 32 (female) years left to live. There's some way to go until pensioners become a majority voting bloc with zero interest in the long-term.
Arguably politicians would be better off increasing the state pension age than ending the triple lock. This has a couple of benefits. It reduces the rate at which the pensioner population increases, thereby reducing the electoral power of pensioners. It doesn't piss off existing pensioners.
A left-liberal friend just texted: "I heard an interview over lunch with an American journalist who said the Democrats lost because they didn't go hard enough into identity politics. Everyone cheered.
Maybe a bit of Trump couldn't hurt... "
Do you have the same left-liberal friends as Leon?
Of course the next big decision (already made, I think) will be to renew Trump's four trillion tax cut for the rich - which expires next year. Tariffs are unlikely to fund that.
The deficit is going to rocket under him. He has no incentive to keep a lid on it.
A left-liberal friend just texted: "I heard an interview over lunch with an American journalist who said the Democrats lost because they didn't go hard enough into identity politics. Everyone cheered.
Maybe a bit of Trump couldn't hurt... "
If this is the lesson they're taking from the result then MAGA is set to win for at least one more cycle.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
Even in a bad recession most people keep their jobs. Everyone notices when prices go up by 20%.
The depressing corollary of that is that voters will support a government that persecutes a minority of the population, even brutally and violently, over one that makes everyone a little bit worse off.
It’s why policy discussions on human rights, law and order and civil liberties need to bring home the real world risks for everyone, not just the supposed target groups.
Watch how this government make use of the last government’s curbs on disruptive protests if the IHT protesting farmers start blocking city centre roads with their tractors.
Sorry but that was all a result of the stupid Supreme Curt ruling that a reasonable amount of disruption should be expected in a democracy. Well what is a reasonable amount of disruption? I don't see why other people's liberty to protest should interfere with my liberty to go about as I wish. It's quite possible to protest without causing disruption you just wont get as much attention and closes down the option of direct action.
That’s a slightly different argument. There are pros and cons of the measures themselves. But let’s be honest those supporting them were focused entirely on “the other side’s” protests, not protests by their side in future. Many of the same people looked on approvingly at European farmers causing massive disruption over green regulations.
A left-liberal friend just texted: "I heard an interview over lunch with an American journalist who said the Democrats lost because they didn't go hard enough into identity politics. Everyone cheered.
Maybe a bit of Trump couldn't hurt... "
Do you have the same left-liberal friends as Leon?
He lives up the road in Aldershot and voted Labour. Trust me, we argue a lot.
But, he is starting to become slightly Woke-sceptic.
The media seem intent in over analyzing the US elections .
Trumps not some man of the people and has done fxck all for working people in terms of economics . Some how he convinced enough people that life was terrible and it was all the fault of Biden and Harris .
This was not a wholesale repudiation of the Dems given how the down ballot votes went especially in terms of state legislatures.
The immigration issue is though one area that the Dems need to address but they don’t have to mimic Trumps plans . A majority of Americans aren’t anti immigrant and a pathway to citizenship is supported in polls .
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
I am am not a rich pensioner by any means. Fixed income rots your standard of living.
Very true, but as BigG has, to his credit, pointed out on numerous occasions, the triple lock is silly. The logical end point of the guarantee, unless wage rises consistently exceed both 2.5% and the rate of inflation, is that workers' entire incomes will have to be confiscated in taxes to pay the state pension bill.
Something has to give. The pension should be pegged to wages and the rest of the guarantee should be binned.
The theory of it was sound enough- the basic pension had drifted a long way from national prosperity (hence the genuine need for WFA in 1997), and the means-tested bit had become so ubiquitous that it was a disincentive to saving. So letting the basic pension float upwards a fair bit over a number of years was probably a sensible aim. When it was devised, did anyone talk about what conditions should cause the lock to be unlocked? Because that seems pretty important.
(The other problem is that, whenever it happens, a chunk of the media are going to go absolutely bezerk. Even broad consensus and a long leadin won't necessarily be enough.)
Ending the triple lock is probably something that will never happen unless both main parties agree on it.
Not necessarily.
If Labour promised to end it at in 2029, the Tories would have a difficult question about how they propose to pay for it, were they to campaign on it.
Going into an election promising to cut pensions would be electoral suicide.
I wonder if Reform overtake the LDs in seats in the next GE.
It’s possible but it would require some unusual electoral maths. You’d need the Tories to be weak enough in Reformy areas to lose their first and second places to them there, but strong enough in Lib Demmy areas to claw back seats. The only way I could see that happening is if they go down a sort of German FDP low tax, socially liberal path.
Even today you hear pensioners claiming they have already paid for their pension. I appreciate they may not understand the vagaries of how pensions work. But, how do you get through to them that there isn’t a pile of money with their name on it. The state pension comes exclusively from today’s workers - of which there are fewer supporting more pensions.
You will never be able to get people to understand that a state pension is nothing more than an accrued obligation, not a pot of money or an investment. Equally you will never get people to understand that national insurance does not pay for the NHS and state pensions, as loads of people seem to think. And good luck explaining the declining ratio of workers to pensioners.
Disinformation is a big problem for current politics, but so is ignorance. If people had at least an inkling of how the world works they might make better choices. But we clearly do not live in such a world.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
Even in a bad recession most people keep their jobs. Everyone notices when prices go up by 20%.
The depressing corollary of that is that voters will support a government that persecutes a minority of the population, even brutally and violently, over one that makes everyone a little bit worse off.
It’s why policy discussions on human rights, law and order and civil liberties need to bring home the real world risks for everyone, not just the supposed target groups.
Watch how this government make use of the last government’s curbs on disruptive protests if the IHT protesting farmers start blocking city centre roads with their tractors.
I'm interested to see whether the farmers will be locked up as JSO were, and what the reaction will be if they are.
People like Roger Hallam and Phoebe Plummer have a long list of convictions to get to this point. I doubt the farmers will have.
A left-liberal friend just texted: "I heard an interview over lunch with an American journalist who said the Democrats lost because they didn't go hard enough into identity politics. Everyone cheered.
Maybe a bit of Trump couldn't hurt... "
If this is the lesson they're taking from the result then MAGA is set to win for at least one more cycle.
There’s an incredible clip from the View where a district near the border that is 97% Latino voting 75% Trump was dismissed as a result of their misogyny.
The media seem intent in over analyzing the US elections .
It's always the same way. The people who didn't predict what happened tells us why it happened. If you can't predict I'm not going to believe your explanations either.
I wonder if Reform overtake the LDs in seats in the next GE.
It’s possible but it would require some unusual electoral maths. You’d need the Tories to be weak enough in Reformy areas to lose their first and second places to them there, but strong enough in Lib Demmy areas to claw back seats. The only way I could see that happening is if they go down a sort of German FDP low tax, socially liberal path.
In terms of personalities, it might have happened had they gone down the Lord Rory of Stewartshire path. Even then it would have been tricky, if only because the Lib Dems are so much better at letterbox to letterbox combat.
(And I say that as someone who would find that sort of party personally more congenial, and thinking that some moves in that direction are probably necessary to get close to a majority. But the time is not ripe. And, dismal as Sunak's electoral positioning was, everything else was probably worse. That's the trouble with fighting a war on two fronts. One of the boons for the red and yellow teams this year was that there basically wasn't a LibLab battleground. Not by collusion so much as reaching a stable natural border, like the one between England and France.)
The media seem intent in over analyzing the US elections .
It's always the same way. The people who didn't predict what happened tells us why it happened. If you can't predict I'm not going to believe your explanations either.
My other take is post election deciding which pollsters called it best. Take 15 darts, throw at the board. Then pick a random number. The dart closest to that number didn't get it right, its just selection bias. And yet we fall for it time and time again.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
The sugar rush public spending plans for the next couple of years are a big risk factor for inflation. I would not be surprised if Reeves tempers those plans a bit.
It's interesting that the more sensible elements of the 'Why Trump won' debate here focused on bread and butter (no pun intended) issues like the price of eggs, or the cost of a meal at a bang-average chain like the Cheesecake Factory.
The FT has already reported that hospitality is going to be hard hit by changes to NI and minimum wage, with Wetherspoons shares dropping 11% after the budget on the news of inevitable price hikes.
There's a further article in the FT today on how the NI changes are going to further inflate the already insane cost of childcare.
Others here have noted that supermarkets run on razor thin margins.
I am increasingly convinced this will be a one term Labour government, because people will feel that the pound in their pocket no longer goes so far. Sure, there's an extra $20bn for the NHS or whatever, but how often do most of us actually use it? How often do we go to the doctor, visit a hospital? For many of us the answer is infrequently. And will the improvement in such services make up for the hit we feel in the rising cost of a weekly shop, childcare costs, or a bang-average mid-range meal out in a chain pub, for example?
Labour have made difficult choices, but they are not popular choices. If elections are won on the basis of "do you feel better off than you did four years ago?" then short of an extraordinary turn of fortune in the global economy, my guess is the answer will be no.
Labour got in, simply, because it was buggins' turn. If people's living standards continue to deteriorate, it will be some other buggins' turn in 2029.
Agree with this analysis. The public are very volatile. Look at that Senedd poll : Reform could come third in Wales.
Labour desperately need to find their growth strategy and messaging.
Perhaps we need to accept that post the GFC our realistic underlying growth prospects are significantly lower and might be for some time - esp now that the ultra low interest rates and the programme of money printing brought in to stave off a collapse have been withdrawn. If we keep kidding the public that we can somehow burst out of the pack and get materially higher sustainable growth than our peers it's a recipe for permanent disappointment - and for populism to thrive.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
I am am not a rich pensioner by any means. Fixed income rots your standard of living.
Very true, but as BigG has, to his credit, pointed out on numerous occasions, the triple lock is silly. The logical end point of the guarantee, unless wage rises consistently exceed both 2.5% and the rate of inflation, is that workers' entire incomes will have to be confiscated in taxes to pay the state pension bill.
Something has to give. The pension should be pegged to wages and the rest of the guarantee should be binned.
The theory of it was sound enough- the basic pension had drifted a long way from national prosperity (hence the genuine need for WFA in 1997), and the means-tested bit had become so ubiquitous that it was a disincentive to saving. So letting the basic pension float upwards a fair bit over a number of years was probably a sensible aim. When it was devised, did anyone talk about what conditions should cause the lock to be unlocked? Because that seems pretty important.
(The other problem is that, whenever it happens, a chunk of the media are going to go absolutely bezerk. Even broad consensus and a long leadin won't necessarily be enough.)
Ending the triple lock is probably something that will never happen unless both main parties agree on it.
Not necessarily.
If Labour promised to end it at in 2029, the Tories would have a difficult question about how they propose to pay for it, were they to campaign on it.
Maybe. And it would support a "Labour are now the party you can trust with the public finances" narrative. Hard for the Cons to win again unless they reclaim that mantle. Although perhaps they won't try to. Perhaps they'll go the national populist route. Trump's victory makes that more likely, I think. Generally speaking we seem to be in a place where politicians are penalised for honesty about the choices we face. I'd like that to change but I don’t expect it to.
Indeed. I think the triple lock has always been a political policy not one borne of some desperate increase in pension poverty. It is basically to avoid the Gordon Brown clanger of putting pennies on the pension and getting pilloried for it.
But it is now stuck - and i don’t see how you appeal to the mass of pensioners with some appeal for the greater good.
I seem to recall some polling around Brexit that said a majority of pensioner would happily vote to leave even if it meant impoverishing their kids / grandkids.
Even today you hear pensioners claiming they have already paid for their pension. I appreciate they may not understand the vagaries of how pensions work. But, how do you get through to them that there isn’t a pile of money with their name on it. The state pension comes exclusively from today’s workers - of which there are fewer supporting more pensions.
Absent banning voting of the old and barmy no party would touch it.
The median voter is (I think) aged about 52, with 29 (male) or 32 (female) years left to live. There's some way to go until pensioners become a majority voting bloc with zero interest in the long-term.
Arguably politicians would be better off increasing the state pension age than ending the triple lock. This has a couple of benefits. It reduces the rate at which the pensioner population increases, thereby reducing the electoral power of pensioners. It doesn't piss off existing pensioners.
Interesting - does that account for turnout. I seem to recall three quarters of pensioners turnout to vote, but only half of those under twenty-five.
You are probably right about increasing pensionable age. I seem to recall when Bismarck introduced the old-age pensions in Germany it was based on how much he reckoned the state could afford and to counteract left wing proposals for a pension at 70. It wasn’t about giving folks fifteen to twenty years not working. The UK largely copied the 65, but at the time hardly anyone lived long enough to claim.
However, the contrary exhibit is the WASPI campaign. Putting up the pension age even if it was all over the news (and the Lambert work was) is no easy task.
I wonder if Reform overtake the LDs in seats in the next GE.
I've read elsewhere, I think, the independent in that BE describes as an independent conservative, though I don't have the local knowledge to verify that. Though I do know Bispham. We park there when we go to see the illuminations. There is a good fish and chip shop there. Well, I say 'good': the food is ok, but the experience is pleasant - like being in the 80s. Signed pictures of Blackpool-friendly celebrities on the walls. Bispham in general seems not unpleasant - cheap, like all of Blackpool, and I can't imagine there's a great deal of wealth being created - but far from a picture of urban decay: the houses look clean and tidy, and it is a not uncheerful place to be.
I find it difficult to see Reform overtaking LDs in seats - their vote is just so inefficiently organised. I'd need odds of at least 15-1 to bet on that.
Even today you hear pensioners claiming they have already paid for their pension. I appreciate they may not understand the vagaries of how pensions work. But, how do you get through to them that there isn’t a pile of money with their name on it. The state pension comes exclusively from today’s workers - of which there are fewer supporting more pensions.
You will never be able to get people to understand that a state pension is nothing more than an accrued obligation, not a pot of money or an investment. Equally you will never get people to understand that national insurance does not pay for the NHS and state pensions, as loads of people seem to think. And good luck explaining the declining ratio of workers to pensioners.
Disinformation is a big problem for current politics, but so is ignorance. If people had at least an inkling of how the world works they might make better choices. But we clearly do not live in such a world.
We could address this point by stopping calling NI national insurance, and rolling it directly into tax, which is what it is.
Other issues - if you scrimp and save over a life of hard work but on lowish salaries you may very well feel pissed off that others around you who saved nothing get more out of the state than you do. I often reflect on the grandparents of a uni friend who were in just this situation. They were comfortable but extremely annoyed that the ones who hadn't saved for 40 odd years ended up with the same standard of living in retirement as they had, but in their case they had to pay for it themselves.
I have no idea what the solution to that it, but its similar to the cliff edges etc in benefit payments.
The media seem intent in over analyzing the US elections .
It's always the same way. The people who didn't predict what happened tells us why it happened. If you can't predict I'm not going to believe your explanations either.
It's amazing how often the main reason for Harris losing / Trump winning will accord with one's own pre-existing agenda.
A left-liberal friend just texted: "I heard an interview over lunch with an American journalist who said the Democrats lost because they didn't go hard enough into identity politics. Everyone cheered.
Maybe a bit of Trump couldn't hurt... "
If this is the lesson they're taking from the result then MAGA is set to win for at least one more cycle.
There’s an incredible clip from the View where a district near the border that is 97% Latino voting 75% Trump was dismissed as a result of their misogyny.
A left-liberal friend just texted: "I heard an interview over lunch with an American journalist who said the Democrats lost because they didn't go hard enough into identity politics. Everyone cheered.
Maybe a bit of Trump couldn't hurt... "
Do you have the same left-liberal friends as Leon?
He lives up the road in Aldershot and voted Labour. Trust me, we argue a lot.
But, he is starting to become slightly Woke-sceptic.
Which is interesting.
Unless the Dems get back to economics and retail politics they are out for a generation now.
The media seem intent in over analyzing the US elections .
Trumps not some man of the people and has done fxck all for working people in terms of economics . Some how he convinced enough people that life was terrible and it was all the fault of Biden and Harris .
This was not a wholesale repudiation of the Dems given how the down ballot votes went especially in terms of state legislatures.
The immigration issue is though one area that the Dems need to address but they don’t have to mimic Trumps plans . A majority of Americans aren’t anti immigrant and a pathway to citizenship is supported in polls .
They don't have to address any of that. They need to wait and see what Trump does before talking about how to respond.
I wonder if Reform overtake the LDs in seats in the next GE.
I am increasingly of the view that Starmer's Labour is one term and then having failed to solve any economic issues or immigration concerns they are booted out by a Farage surge.
You get the feeling from the press that at least some of his senior team understand the fierce urgency to deliver so maybe they will escape this fate, but so far...
Bill Kristol @BillKristol · 1h I'm gloomy and alarmed. But I also don't think Trump will be a successful president--the economy and world could well (sadly) be in worse shape in 2026. So every young person who's been thinking about running as a fresh-thinking Democrat should consider doing so in two years.
A left-liberal friend just texted: "I heard an interview over lunch with an American journalist who said the Democrats lost because they didn't go hard enough into identity politics. Everyone cheered.
Maybe a bit of Trump couldn't hurt... "
If this is the lesson they're taking from the result then MAGA is set to win for at least one more cycle.
There’s an incredible clip from the View where a district near the border that is 97% Latino voting 75% Trump was dismissed as a result of their misogyny.
It does seem a pity that someone on that program didn't ask they were against Trump's policy on immigration given the misogyny among the immigrants.....
A left-liberal friend just texted: "I heard an interview over lunch with an American journalist who said the Democrats lost because they didn't go hard enough into identity politics. Everyone cheered.
Maybe a bit of Trump couldn't hurt... "
Do you have the same left-liberal friends as Leon?
He lives up the road in Aldershot and voted Labour. Trust me, we argue a lot.
But, he is starting to become slightly Woke-sceptic.
Which is interesting.
Unless the Dems get back to economics and retail politics they are out for a generation now.
Where is their modern Bill Clinton?
Probably doing all they can to keep their Hillary Clinton from running...
Comments
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1854872029012402524?t=BfCuu652erwBC_IKc3APBQ&s=19
If Labour promised to end it at in 2029, the Tories would have a difficult question about how they propose to pay for it, were they to campaign on it.
Now, years later, everyone has forgotten government largesse (witness the July election) and the noise you have heard over winter fuel with seem as pin dropping compared to the roar of outrage that would affect ALL pensioners.
Have a good afternoon
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
And yes, the point at which pension spending chews up an impossible percentage of earned incomes is still a long way off, but the damage is incremental. The higher the proportion of state spending that goes on the elderly, the less is left over for the benefit of everybody else. And when more tax has to be raised for pensioner benefits, the Government will always extract the bulk of it from workers, just as has happened with the employer NI hike (the cost of which will be recouped by businesses through price hikes and, crucially, yet more wage suppression.)
Simply, an endless regime of more goodies for the retired paid for by everyone else isn't sustainable.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in Italy with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and 2008 crash and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
But I thought the same about re-indexing fuel duty this year while pump prices are low, and unaccountably they didn't do it, instead reducing the lower threshold for employer NICs in a way that puts huge pressure on important sectors of the economy.
That said, this is Scotland so, if the SNP can claim credit for the handouts but successfully pin the blame for crap healthcare provision on Westminster stinginess then they could still reap the benefits.
Trump’s victory came as a surprise for many, likely misrepresented by the media as a closer race than it was. He has secured a landslide victory over Kamala, gaining control of the Senate and Congress, which now allows him to fully fulfil the promises he made throughout this historic campaign.
He doesn't explain how 50.7%: 47.7% is a "landslide", even in Usonian terms. And we don't have a result on Congress yet (unless it arrived this morning and I missed it).
Trump understood that a strong, independent Britain would benefit the world, and he was prepared to work with us to forge a robust trade deal that could have bolstered our economy and ensured our success outside the EU.
I don't know what Anderson is inhaling, but it's something exotic.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1973150/Trump-US-White-House-UK-election
As we are seeing yet again, the private sector is being squeezed wih unsustainalbe levels of tax and borrowing for the public sector paymasters of Labour.
Of course, seeing what everyone else in the public sector are getting, the inclination to accept this is pretty low. And thus giving into strike action begets more strike action.
Not that the public is quaking in its boots at the prospect of generic public sector functionaries going on strike, of course.
In the centre it's just waiting for Labour to implode, which is already underway. We've had the first Tory poll lead and Labour didn't have a big popular wave of support in the election, people reluctantly voted for them on the basis of the Tories being worse. If the Tories are able to successfully jettison the Liz Truss image by 2029 it's game on, I think the Tories could easily get to 36-38% if Kemi is even a little bit successful
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
Inflation hits anyone who still needs to budget (70-80% of the country) a fair bit.
Recessions hit the 10% or so who lose their jobs very hard.
The first costs far more votes.
I do find the 'inflation busting' public sector pay rise headlines a little hysterical. If they were never above inflation or comparable to the private sector you'd never get anyone to work there. We do better on pensions and job security, although I don't know how much of an incentive the pension actually is for people.
About 75 times more now
It was sold last year for £260,000
Probably correct for the economy, but evidently very bad for the Democrats' re-election prospects,
Note that the collapse of Weimar came as a result of a tariffs generated depression.
They came through hyperinflation, with great hardship - and prior to the depression, Germany had exceeded its pre-war output.
But it is now stuck - and i don’t see how you appeal to the mass of pensioners with some appeal for the greater good.
I seem to recall some polling around Brexit that said a majority of pensioner would happily vote to leave even if it meant impoverishing their kids / grandkids.
Even today you hear pensioners claiming they have already paid for their pension. I appreciate they may not understand the vagaries of how pensions work. But, how do you get through to them that there isn’t a pile of money with their name on it. The state pension comes exclusively from today’s workers - of which there are fewer supporting more pensions.
Absent banning voting of the old and barmy no party would touch it.
https://x.com/Fx1Jonny/status/1854805808141226139
Imagine if Jewish people in London had reacted the same way to posters of the hostages being ripped down.
For me, also an outsider who wouldnt choose to work there so probably fine to disregard, but fwiw I'd say the issue is more culture, low motivation and being messed around by politicians. That leads to poor retention of quality staff and higher pay increases to fight that battle. Fix some of the culture, provide consistency, match expectations and staffing and then maybe future pay negotiations might be easier and come in lower.
Tariffs are unlikely to fund that.
The FT has already reported that hospitality is going to be hard hit by changes to NI and minimum wage, with Wetherspoons shares dropping 11% after the budget on the news of inevitable price hikes.
There's a further article in the FT today on how the NI changes are going to further inflate the already insane cost of childcare.
Others here have noted that supermarkets run on razor thin margins.
I am increasingly convinced this will be a one term Labour government, because people will feel that the pound in their pocket no longer goes so far. Sure, there's an extra $20bn for the NHS or whatever, but how often do most of us actually use it? How often do we go to the doctor, visit a hospital? For many of us the answer is infrequently. And will the improvement in such services make up for the hit we feel in the rising cost of a weekly shop, childcare costs, or a bang-average mid-range meal out in a chain pub, for example?
Labour have made difficult choices, but they are not popular choices. If elections are won on the basis of "do you feel better off than you did four years ago?" then short of an extraordinary turn of fortune in the global economy, my guess is the answer will be no.
Labour got in, simply, because it was buggins' turn. If people's living standards continue to deteriorate, it will be some other buggins' turn in 2029.
'30% of respondents said they would use their Senedd vote for a constituency representative to vote Labour if the election was called now, with Plaid Cymru on 21%, Reform on 20%, Conservatives on 17%, Liberal Democrats on 6% and Greens on 5%.'
We'll see what happens, but my guess is that the recent Covid experience means that it would be hard not to spend all the money allocated.
Inflation is the opposite - everybody finds that their money doesn't go as far, and so they feel poorer.
From a political point of few, 5% of the population being very grumpy because they have been laid off is far less electorally damaging than 100% of the population being fairly grumpy because the feel 10% poorer.
It’s why policy discussions on human rights, law and order and civil liberties need to bring home the real world risks for everyone, not just the supposed target groups.
Watch how this government make use of the last government’s curbs on disruptive protests if the IHT protesting farmers start blocking city centre roads with their tractors.
The public are very volatile.
Look at that Senedd poll : Reform could come third in Wales.
Labour desperately need to find their growth strategy and messaging.
If it increased in line with my public sector father's salary (£1k) - he was able to borrow 3 times his salary with a 25% deposit, £4k then would be about £150k now. Or if salaries had kept pace, an EO in the DWP should be paid £217k now.
I do not think farmers will make the mistake of thinking they are not subject to law.
https://archive.ph/ArbnO
Maybe a bit of Trump couldn't hurt... "
Arguably politicians would be better off increasing the state pension age than ending the triple lock. This has a couple of benefits. It reduces the rate at which the pensioner population increases, thereby reducing the electoral power of pensioners. It doesn't piss off existing pensioners.
But, he is starting to become slightly Woke-sceptic.
Which is interesting.
Trumps not some man of the people and has done fxck all for working people in terms of economics . Some how he convinced enough people that life was terrible and it was all the fault of Biden and Harris .
This was not a wholesale repudiation of the Dems given how the down ballot votes went especially in terms of state legislatures.
The immigration issue is though one area that the Dems need to address but they don’t have to mimic Trumps plans . A majority of Americans aren’t anti immigrant and a pathway to citizenship is supported in polls .
Disinformation is a big problem for current politics, but so is ignorance. If people had at least an inkling of how the world works they might make better choices. But we clearly do not live in such a world.
Con 29%
Lab 20%
LD 9%
Reform 22%
Con 297 seats
Lab 176 seats
Lib 39 seats
Reform 67 seats
So a right-wing version of the 2010 coalition?
https://x.com/nickfondacaro/status/1854562487422616054
(And I say that as someone who would find that sort of party personally more congenial, and thinking that some moves in that direction are probably necessary to get close to a majority. But the time is not ripe. And, dismal as Sunak's electoral positioning was, everything else was probably worse. That's the trouble with fighting a war on two fronts. One of the boons for the red and yellow teams this year was that there basically wasn't a LibLab battleground. Not by collusion so much as reaching a stable natural border, like the one between England and France.)
You are probably right about increasing pensionable age. I seem to recall when Bismarck introduced the old-age pensions in Germany it was based on how much he reckoned the state could afford and to counteract left wing proposals for a pension at 70. It wasn’t about giving folks fifteen to twenty years not working. The UK largely copied the 65, but at the time hardly anyone lived long enough to claim.
However, the contrary exhibit is the WASPI campaign. Putting up the pension age even if it was all over the news (and the Lambert work was) is no easy task.
Though I do know Bispham. We park there when we go to see the illuminations. There is a good fish and chip shop there. Well, I say 'good': the food is ok, but the experience is pleasant - like being in the 80s. Signed pictures of Blackpool-friendly celebrities on the walls. Bispham in general seems not unpleasant - cheap, like all of Blackpool, and I can't imagine there's a great deal of wealth being created - but far from a picture of urban decay: the houses look clean and tidy, and it is a not uncheerful place to be.
I find it difficult to see Reform overtaking LDs in seats - their vote is just so inefficiently organised. I'd need odds of at least 15-1 to bet on that.
Other issues - if you scrimp and save over a life of hard work but on lowish salaries you may very well feel pissed off that others around you who saved nothing get more out of the state than you do. I often reflect on the grandparents of a uni friend who were in just this situation. They were comfortable but extremely annoyed that the ones who hadn't saved for 40 odd years ended up with the same standard of living in retirement as they had, but in their case they had to pay for it themselves.
I have no idea what the solution to that it, but its similar to the cliff edges etc in benefit payments.
This Rout Is an Opportunity for Democrats
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/08/opinion/democrats-resistance-trump.html
Reform transfers - of those that transferred, 66% went Conservative. Overall, including non-transfers, it's 36.8%
Lib Dem transfers - those that transferred 48% went Conservative. Overall, including non-transfers, it's 31.7%.
Exactly as may LD transfers went to SNP as Conservative.
Read into this tiny sample what you will, but I couldn't argue that Conservatives are better off chasing LD than Reform voters.
Where is their modern Bill Clinton?
They need to wait and see what Trump does before talking about how to respond.
You get the feeling from the press that at least some of his senior team understand the fierce urgency to deliver so maybe they will escape this fate, but so far...
Project 2025 chief’s book urges ‘burning’ of FBI, New York Times and Boy Scouts
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/08/project-2025-kevin-roberts-book-burning-fbi-new-york-times
Bill Kristol
@BillKristol
·
1h
I'm gloomy and alarmed. But I also don't think Trump will be a successful president--the economy and world could well (sadly) be in worse shape in 2026. So every young person who's been thinking about running as a fresh-thinking Democrat should consider doing so in two years.
https://x.com/BillKristol/status/1854889390964715904