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Split ticketing is still real – politicalbetting.com

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  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,764
    Sean_F said:

    Meanwhile, at the other end of the scale:

    Only three of yesterday's byelection results have been reported overnight:
    Wyre, Marsh Mill: RUK gain from C
    Blackpool, Bispham: Lab gain from C
    Bracknell, Great Hollands: Lab hold
    6 seats to declare today, Previews at andrewspreviews.substack.com


    https://bsky.app/profile/andrewteale.bsky.social/post/3lag7xrvsiz2z

    Still to come, five in Scotland and a Green defence in Herefordshire.

    It looks like Reform will do very well in Blackpool and its environs in 2025.

    The Bispham result was a bit odd. Labour’s vote share dropped sharply, but they squeezed a win, because the right wing vote was split between Conservatives, Reform, and an independent Conservative.
    Thanks for that. I did wonder as it seemed an odd result. There wasn't much for the LDs in that lot. I had hoped they might do something in Bracknell (Labour on the slide, surrounded by LD gains in GE, etc), but seeing as they didn't have a candidate that proved to be somewhat of a challenge.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,740

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Hell has actually frozen over

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has written an article that I can't disagree with.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/08/trump-restoration-an-unmitigated-disaster-for-germany/

    While we will have problems with Trump being in the Whitehouse - it's nothing compared to the pain tariffs will impose on Germany who are already in a position of zero growth..

    It makes this no confidence motion in January all the more ridiculous. When our opposition move a no confidence motion it is heard the next day and for very good reasons. Germany have not exactly been blessed with dynamic leadership in recent times but their government is in limbo now for months, critical months as Europe tries to respond to Trump's win. It's a disaster for them, for Ukraine and for the continent.
    The Scholz government may not be dynamic but those of GDR Merkel and Gazprom Schroeder were always dynamically pro-Russia.
    I still think when the files are opened Merkel will be revealed as an FSB agent.
    Judging by their performances over the last couple of decades, it may be more interesting to learn which Western leaders were not an FSB agent.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,834
    "At this July’s NATO summit, Trump’s advisers were reported to have told allied countries that intelligence sharing would be reduced as part of a broader plan to scale back US support and co-operation with the alliance.”
    https://x.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1854645264557986178
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,670
    edited November 8
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    Not sure whether we've covered this important news story from the local metrpolis on the BBC: Trump-inspired window display gets town talking.

    Shocked by the slogan to be honest. Make Selby great again? That implies it was great in the past :wink:

    (The Abbey is a thing of beauty though - would be seen as a much bigger deal if it wasn't for York Minster just down the road)

    '[...] one commenter with a grudge against a neighbouring town was keen to build a wall "to keep Goole out".'
    Selby is (or thinks it is) Ronnie Barker to John Cleese's York and Ronnie Corbett's Goole in The Frost Report class sketch :lol:

    (More realistically, it's Corbett, Barker is Leeds and Tony Robinson (as Baldrick) comes in for Goole)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,406

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Hell has actually frozen over

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has written an article that I can't disagree with.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/08/trump-restoration-an-unmitigated-disaster-for-germany/

    While we will have problems with Trump being in the Whitehouse - it's nothing compared to the pain tariffs will impose on Germany who are already in a position of zero growth..

    It makes this no confidence motion in January all the more ridiculous. When our opposition move a no confidence motion it is heard the next day and for very good reasons. Germany have not exactly been blessed with dynamic leadership in recent times but their government is in limbo now for months, critical months as Europe tries to respond to Trump's win. It's a disaster for them, for Ukraine and for the continent.
    The Scholz government may not be dynamic but those of GDR Merkel and Gazprom Schroeder were always dynamically pro-Russia.
    I still think when the files are opened Merkel will be revealed as an FSB agent.
    I think it's more complex than that. All top politicians rely on a team; people who whisper advice into their ears. Whilst I think Schroeder might be, in Merkel's case I think it's more likely that some of her 'advisors' were tainted.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,842

    nico679 said:

    Why are the media continuing to go on about past comments made by Labour about Trump .

    His own VP made similar statements !

    As long as you arse lick Trump he’s quite happy to be forgiving.

    It's a thing in politics not to make such definite statements on the record.

    I can recall the media doing the same to people in Conservative government re foreign leaders. Remember the whole "Full Tonto" storm? Which included some people here demanding the UK Defence Sec resign.

    On the Channel 4 "election night", there was a desperation from the talking heads to try and get Boris Johnson to say not nice things about Trump. To create exactly this kind of story.

    Try and get someone on the record about Xi and the actual, literal genocide his regime has been committing over the decades.
    I disagree to an extent.

    We know (well, politicians do, the rest of us may be a bit stupid) a lot of the public knockabout is just that. As witnessed at the State Opening of Parliament in July, the personal interactions between supposedly sworn adversaries are much more congenial and aimiable than the public displays at PMQs and elsewhere.

    I suspect in private political people of different stripes get along fine - they know what needs to be said in the public domain, to play the role, to act out the part, to keep their "constituencies" happy (as they see it) but in private, yes, there will be some who genuinely don't get along, but I suspect most politicians can deal quite pragmatically with their perceived opponents.

    Trump may be an exception - I don't know, I've never met him - but I suspect the needs of business and pragmatism overrule (or should) any personal antipathy. After all, we've all encountered people in our working lives who we personally dislike but can work with on a business level - politics is no different.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,931

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Hell has actually frozen over

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has written an article that I can't disagree with.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/08/trump-restoration-an-unmitigated-disaster-for-germany/

    While we will have problems with Trump being in the Whitehouse - it's nothing compared to the pain tariffs will impose on Germany who are already in a position of zero growth..

    It makes this no confidence motion in January all the more ridiculous. When our opposition move a no confidence motion it is heard the next day and for very good reasons. Germany have not exactly been blessed with dynamic leadership in recent times but their government is in limbo now for months, critical months as Europe tries to respond to Trump's win. It's a disaster for them, for Ukraine and for the continent.
    The Scholz government may not be dynamic but those of GDR Merkel and Gazprom Schroeder were always dynamically pro-Russia.
    I still think when the files are opened Merkel will be revealed as an FSB agent.
    In the the revaluations from the Mitrokhin archive, it turned out that the KGB used the same word, to describe, at a high level, the following

    1) People actually working for Moscow full time
    2) People who occasionally provided some gossip
    3) Useful idiots who would toe the Moscow line on most thing
    4) High level contacts with politicians in the West who used the KGB as a back channel to communicate with Moscow.

    All of these would be given a codename in the KGB system.

    If IRRC the translation of the term is a bit flexible, with many saying it means "source" or "contact"

    Hence the various stories that "political leader X is a Russian agent"
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,542
    Construction PMIs:

    UK 54.3
    France 42.2
    Germany 40.2

    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    Nigelb said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think people are over-thinking this election.
    Trump lost in 2020 because of his inadequate response to COVID.
    Biden/Harris lost in 2024 because of the inflation caused by the government stimulus to the COVID-hit economy.

    If that is the reason we should forecast the Republicans' worst result since 1936 in 2028 given what Trump's proposing to unleash.

    If of course there is an election in 2028.
    There will be and Trump won't be a candidate.

    Harris has lost now, you can drop the paranoia...
    And you can drop the insouciance.
    It's not paranoid to be concerned about what Trump might do towards weakening US democracy.
    Well since the Dems have shown him how to do Lawfare maybe that wasnt such a good move
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,931

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Hell has actually frozen over

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has written an article that I can't disagree with.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/08/trump-restoration-an-unmitigated-disaster-for-germany/

    While we will have problems with Trump being in the Whitehouse - it's nothing compared to the pain tariffs will impose on Germany who are already in a position of zero growth..

    It makes this no confidence motion in January all the more ridiculous. When our opposition move a no confidence motion it is heard the next day and for very good reasons. Germany have not exactly been blessed with dynamic leadership in recent times but their government is in limbo now for months, critical months as Europe tries to respond to Trump's win. It's a disaster for them, for Ukraine and for the continent.
    The Scholz government may not be dynamic but those of GDR Merkel and Gazprom Schroeder were always dynamically pro-Russia.
    I still think when the files are opened Merkel will be revealed as an FSB agent.
    I think it's more complex than that. All top politicians rely on a team; people who whisper advice into their ears. Whilst I think Schroeder might be, in Merkel's case I think it's more likely that some of her 'advisors' were tainted.
    More, I think, that she fully believed in East Politics. Which goes back long before Bismarck.

    Given her history in East Germany, she grew up seeing Russia as ally....

    It's the belief that by trade and friendship, Russia can become a useful ally of Germany.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,542

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Hell has actually frozen over

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has written an article that I can't disagree with.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/08/trump-restoration-an-unmitigated-disaster-for-germany/

    While we will have problems with Trump being in the Whitehouse - it's nothing compared to the pain tariffs will impose on Germany who are already in a position of zero growth..

    It makes this no confidence motion in January all the more ridiculous. When our opposition move a no confidence motion it is heard the next day and for very good reasons. Germany have not exactly been blessed with dynamic leadership in recent times but their government is in limbo now for months, critical months as Europe tries to respond to Trump's win. It's a disaster for them, for Ukraine and for the continent.
    The Scholz government may not be dynamic but those of GDR Merkel and Gazprom Schroeder were always dynamically pro-Russia.
    I still think when the files are opened Merkel will be revealed as an FSB agent.
    Perhaps not an actual agent but a willing idiot who happily accepted 30+ years of pro-Russia indoctrination in the GDR.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,290

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think people are over-thinking this election.
    Trump lost in 2020 because of his inadequate response to COVID.
    Biden/Harris lost in 2024 because of the inflation caused by the government stimulus to the COVID-hit economy.

    If that is the reason we should forecast the Republicans' worst result since 1936 in 2028 given what Trump's proposing to unleash.

    If of course there is an election in 2028.
    I wouldn't automatically assume that.

    We just don't know yet how he's going to govern; the appointment of Wiles as CoS keeps that ambiguous for now; it suggests the possibility of a degree of pragmatism, though by no means guaranteeing it.
    The involvement of RFK Jr. suggests a degree of utter madness.
    He's not the only politician to have harboured doubts about vaccines. A certain T. Blair and his wife almost certainly avoided the use of MMR for their son at the time of Wakefield pushing nonsense about MMW/autism.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,722
    TimS said:

    FPT: Mr, Taz, " GMB played the far from cerebral Angela Rayner from 2020 describing Donald Trump as a buffoon who should not be in office this morning."

    Given her previous form, that's nicer than what she said about Conservatives in this country.

    Credit to both Rayner and Lammy for undertaking some largely correct analysis of Trump, and I’m willing to forgive them their more recent diplomacy given the realpolitik of the situation. So long as they don’t turn fully into simpering supplicants to the US like British politicians so often do.

    In the meantime the Lib Dems will have the luxury of saying what most Labour (and Tory) politicians think.

    From the AEP piece on Germany linked to earlier in this thread:-

    David Lammy began cultivating Trump’s advisers before it was fashionable again, under his doctrine of ‘progressive realism’.

    He has dined cheerfully with the authors of Project 2025, the alleged playbook of a Trump 2.0 presidency, which states that “trade with the post-Brexit UK needs urgent development before London slips back into the orbit of the EU”.

    The special relationship will be awkward but Labour and MAGA may not be such visceral foes after all.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/08/trump-restoration-an-unmitigated-disaster-for-germany/

    Last year David Lammy was credited with landing Keir Starmer a prominent role in Europe's D-Day celebrations even though he was only Leader of the Opposition.

    PB Tories, and Westminster Tories, should not misunderestimate the Foreign Secretary.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,542

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Hell has actually frozen over

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has written an article that I can't disagree with.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/08/trump-restoration-an-unmitigated-disaster-for-germany/

    While we will have problems with Trump being in the Whitehouse - it's nothing compared to the pain tariffs will impose on Germany who are already in a position of zero growth..

    It makes this no confidence motion in January all the more ridiculous. When our opposition move a no confidence motion it is heard the next day and for very good reasons. Germany have not exactly been blessed with dynamic leadership in recent times but their government is in limbo now for months, critical months as Europe tries to respond to Trump's win. It's a disaster for them, for Ukraine and for the continent.
    The Scholz government may not be dynamic but those of GDR Merkel and Gazprom Schroeder were always dynamically pro-Russia.
    I still think when the files are opened Merkel will be revealed as an FSB agent.
    I think it's more complex than that. All top politicians rely on a team; people who whisper advice into their ears. Whilst I think Schroeder might be, in Merkel's case I think it's more likely that some of her 'advisors' were tainted.
    More, I think, that she fully believed in East Politics. Which goes back long before Bismarck.

    Given her history in East Germany, she grew up seeing Russia as ally....

    It's the belief that by trade and friendship, Russia can become a useful ally of Germany.
    It starts "if we trade with Russia they will become more like us".

    And ends "we have to become more like Russia or they will not trade with us".
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,764

    Nigelb said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think people are over-thinking this election.
    Trump lost in 2020 because of his inadequate response to COVID.
    Biden/Harris lost in 2024 because of the inflation caused by the government stimulus to the COVID-hit economy.

    If that is the reason we should forecast the Republicans' worst result since 1936 in 2028 given what Trump's proposing to unleash.

    If of course there is an election in 2028.
    There will be and Trump won't be a candidate.

    Harris has lost now, you can drop the paranoia...
    And you can drop the insouciance.
    It's not paranoid to be concerned about what Trump might do towards weakening US democracy.
    Well since the Dems have shown him how to do Lawfare maybe that wasnt such a good move
    Are you seriously saying that Trump should not have been prosecuted? That he should just be above the law?

    I think it is appalling that a President can't be prosecuted. America prides itself on not being a monarchy and that all are equal under the law. It appears that is not true for whoever is president though (and that is regardless of which party they belong to).

    Impeachment is not the answer as it is political.

    In times gone by a president would be embarrassed into standing down. No longer so.

    I also think the pardon system is an abuse of power (again regardless of who is president). If it is to exist it should be in the hands of a non-political body.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,740

    TimS said:

    FPT: Mr, Taz, " GMB played the far from cerebral Angela Rayner from 2020 describing Donald Trump as a buffoon who should not be in office this morning."

    Given her previous form, that's nicer than what she said about Conservatives in this country.

    Credit to both Rayner and Lammy for undertaking some largely correct analysis of Trump, and I’m willing to forgive them their more recent diplomacy given the realpolitik of the situation. So long as they don’t turn fully into simpering supplicants to the US like British politicians so often do.

    In the meantime the Lib Dems will have the luxury of saying what most Labour (and Tory) politicians think.

    From the AEP piece on Germany linked to earlier in this thread:-

    David Lammy began cultivating Trump’s advisers before it was fashionable again, under his doctrine of ‘progressive realism’.

    He has dined cheerfully with the authors of Project 2025, the alleged playbook of a Trump 2.0 presidency, which states that “trade with the post-Brexit UK needs urgent development before London slips back into the orbit of the EU”.

    The special relationship will be awkward but Labour and MAGA may not be such visceral foes after all.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/08/trump-restoration-an-unmitigated-disaster-for-germany/

    Last year David Lammy was credited with landing Keir Starmer a prominent role in Europe's D-Day celebrations even though he was only Leader of the Opposition.

    PB Tories, and Westminster Tories, should not misunderestimate the Foreign Secretary.
    If you misunderestimate are you estimating correctly or overestimating perhaps?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,290

    Construction PMIs:

    UK 54.3
    France 42.2
    Germany 40.2

    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases

    Anecdata from my B-in-L (steel erecting - works with the big theme parks such as Thorpe a lot, on infrastructure) - they are on their first slow down for years. Not sure why at the moment, but Thorpe etc are not going all guns blazing with new investment.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362

    TimS said:

    FPT: Mr, Taz, " GMB played the far from cerebral Angela Rayner from 2020 describing Donald Trump as a buffoon who should not be in office this morning."

    Given her previous form, that's nicer than what she said about Conservatives in this country.

    Credit to both Rayner and Lammy for undertaking some largely correct analysis of Trump, and I’m willing to forgive them their more recent diplomacy given the realpolitik of the situation. So long as they don’t turn fully into simpering supplicants to the US like British politicians so often do.

    In the meantime the Lib Dems will have the luxury of saying what most Labour (and Tory) politicians think.

    From the AEP piece on Germany linked to earlier in this thread:-

    David Lammy began cultivating Trump’s advisers before it was fashionable again, under his doctrine of ‘progressive realism’.

    He has dined cheerfully with the authors of Project 2025, the alleged playbook of a Trump 2.0 presidency, which states that “trade with the post-Brexit UK needs urgent development before London slips back into the orbit of the EU”.

    The special relationship will be awkward but Labour and MAGA may not be such visceral foes after all.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/08/trump-restoration-an-unmitigated-disaster-for-germany/

    Last year David Lammy was credited with landing Keir Starmer a prominent role in Europe's D-Day celebrations even though he was only Leader of the Opposition.

    PB Tories, and Westminster Tories, should not misunderestimate the Foreign Secretary.
    Since he's been in office weve promoted him from fkwit to total fkwit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Certainly some voters who voted for Trump for President also voted Democrat for Senate and for the House. Trump Democrats are a thing just as Reagan Democrats were, especially amongst working class males.

    Next time though Trump cannot win again and the best Democrat candidate would probably be a white male governor from the Midwest or Pennsylvania, Shapiro would certainly be a frontrunner. Others like Buttigieg would fancy their chances too.

    Though the state of the US economy and impact of Trump's tariffs would be the key factor in the outcome
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,740
    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think people are over-thinking this election.
    Trump lost in 2020 because of his inadequate response to COVID.
    Biden/Harris lost in 2024 because of the inflation caused by the government stimulus to the COVID-hit economy.

    If that is the reason we should forecast the Republicans' worst result since 1936 in 2028 given what Trump's proposing to unleash.

    If of course there is an election in 2028.
    There will be and Trump won't be a candidate.

    Harris has lost now, you can drop the paranoia...
    And you can drop the insouciance.
    It's not paranoid to be concerned about what Trump might do towards weakening US democracy.
    Well since the Dems have shown him how to do Lawfare maybe that wasnt such a good move
    Are you seriously saying that Trump should not have been prosecuted? That he should just be above the law?

    I think it is appalling that a President can't be prosecuted. America prides itself on not being a monarchy and that all are equal under the law. It appears that is not true for whoever is president though (and that is regardless of which party they belong to).

    Impeachment is not the answer as it is political.

    In times gone by a president would be embarrassed into standing down. No longer so.

    I also think the pardon system is an abuse of power (again regardless of who is president). If it is to exist it should be in the hands of a non-political body.
    Fans of two tier justice obvs.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,700
    Fishing said:

    No British PM has had this kind of strategic clarity since Blair.

    https://x.com/emmanuelmacron/status/1854606082473148791?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg

    For better or for worse, Macron *is* the leader of Europe, which is probably why Trump called him first.

    As usual with Macron, it sounds reasonable until you start to think it through.

    To begin with, America is a country and Europe a geographical expression. Saying there should be an EU foreign policy is fine in theory, but can anyone imagine a foreign policy on anything remotely important and controversial that would unite Ireland, Hungary, Sweden, Spain and Germany?

    Then there's the fact that most smaller European countries, still the majority, have no tradition of assertive foreign policy, and no interest in it either.

    There's also the EU's disastrous record on any foreign policy issue it touches, starting with the Yugoslav civil war in the 90s, and most recently its appeasement of Vladimir Putin. They make its economic record look good.

    Also any significant EU move in this area, for instance to abolish unanimity in foreign policy decisions, would need treaty changes, which the EU avoids like the plague these days because of the boring need to refer them to voters, where they have a terrible record. Ireland would need a referendum and there's no way anything questioning neutrality would pass.

    Finally, there's the small fact that EU countries have puny armed forces and no money to increase them significantly. And, since they let us leave, their situation is even worse.

    What the deluded and fading narcissist obviously wants is for every EU country to throw its weight behind whatever France, and especially he, want to do at any moment. Even if, like confronting/appeasing Putin, it is exactly the opposite of what he was doing last month. And perhaps some EU leaders will be starry-eyed enough to fall for it. But I think that, over the long term, it's Cloud Cuckoo Land.
    Blair should have been imprisoned
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,676

    Construction PMIs:

    UK 54.3
    France 42.2
    Germany 40.2

    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases

    This could end up being the solitary bright spot for the Labour government, a huge construction boom for 5 years. Everything else will turn to shit but we might end up with a lot of new buildings.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Hell has actually frozen over

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has written an article that I can't disagree with.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/08/trump-restoration-an-unmitigated-disaster-for-germany/

    While we will have problems with Trump being in the Whitehouse - it's nothing compared to the pain tariffs will impose on Germany who are already in a position of zero growth..

    It makes this no confidence motion in January all the more ridiculous. When our opposition move a no confidence motion it is heard the next day and for very good reasons. Germany have not exactly been blessed with dynamic leadership in recent times but their government is in limbo now for months, critical months as Europe tries to respond to Trump's win. It's a disaster for them, for Ukraine and for the continent.
    The Scholz government may not be dynamic but those of GDR Merkel and Gazprom Schroeder were always dynamically pro-Russia.
    I still think when the files are opened Merkel will be revealed as an FSB agent.
    Perhaps not an actual agent but a willing idiot who happily accepted 30+ years of pro-Russia indoctrination in the GDR.
    hmmm

    the issue with a lot of "agents" is they hide within plain sight. Guenter Guillaume who collapsed the Brandt government had enough questions on his background that he should never have been let near the Chancellor.

    Same with Merkel.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,764
    edited November 8

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Hell has actually frozen over

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has written an article that I can't disagree with.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/08/trump-restoration-an-unmitigated-disaster-for-germany/

    While we will have problems with Trump being in the Whitehouse - it's nothing compared to the pain tariffs will impose on Germany who are already in a position of zero growth..

    It makes this no confidence motion in January all the more ridiculous. When our opposition move a no confidence motion it is heard the next day and for very good reasons. Germany have not exactly been blessed with dynamic leadership in recent times but their government is in limbo now for months, critical months as Europe tries to respond to Trump's win. It's a disaster for them, for Ukraine and for the continent.
    The Scholz government may not be dynamic but those of GDR Merkel and Gazprom Schroeder were always dynamically pro-Russia.
    I still think when the files are opened Merkel will be revealed as an FSB agent.
    I think it's more complex than that. All top politicians rely on a team; people who whisper advice into their ears. Whilst I think Schroeder might be, in Merkel's case I think it's more likely that some of her 'advisors' were tainted.
    More, I think, that she fully believed in East Politics. Which goes back long before Bismarck.

    Given her history in East Germany, she grew up seeing Russia as ally....

    It's the belief that by trade and friendship, Russia can become a useful ally of Germany.
    It starts "if we trade with Russia they will become more like us".

    And ends "we have to become more like Russia or they will not trade with us".
    In the same sort of line that is my fear with trade deals with America. I think from a financial point of view we should be able to agree trade deals that avoid the tariff threat, BUT the sticking points will be our restrictions on environmental and health requirements of US imports. if we stick to ours guns, as we should, that might result in tariffs. If we capitulate?

    PS @another_richard I hope you noticed in a reply to you, yesterday I think, that I withdrew my post as being wrong.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Why are the media continuing to go on about past comments made by Labour about Trump .

    His own VP made similar statements !

    As long as you arse lick Trump he’s quite happy to be forgiving.

    The media are in awe of Trump. So are the commentariat. Charitably you could say they love a winner, no matter how despicable. Uncharitably you could say he’s done to them what he’s done to so many others: hypnotised them into a state of catatonic acceptance evolving into love.

    Most of them on this side of the Atlantic retain some semblance of distancing and critique for now, but it won’t last. Watch as the right wing media in the UK slowly embraces MAGA. It’s not long till “Hurrah for the redcaps” articles start popping up in the Daily Mail.
    The right wing press will now likely go into make a trade deal with the USA mode .
    Everyone will be in that mode. Would you rather we start a trade war ?
    We're somewhat better placed than (say) Germany for that negotiation, but it's going to be painful. We simply have to accept that for the time being the US is, in trade terms, something of an adversary.
    There’s very little to be gained from any realistic trade deal. We are an extremely weak negotiating partner facing a very protectionist, and very economically powerful country.

    The most likely outcome would be the sort of one sided arrangement that would deliver to our farmers something rather less palatable than 20% inheritance tax on their estates.
    20% inheritance tax on their estates is more damaging longer term to family farms than a deal which expands their exports to the US market even if it also leads to cheaper US imports here too.

    As it is though we will likely end up with higher tariffs on US meat and vegetable imports in response to the US tariffs imposed on UK and other nation imports
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think people are over-thinking this election.
    Trump lost in 2020 because of his inadequate response to COVID.
    Biden/Harris lost in 2024 because of the inflation caused by the government stimulus to the COVID-hit economy.

    If that is the reason we should forecast the Republicans' worst result since 1936 in 2028 given what Trump's proposing to unleash.

    If of course there is an election in 2028.
    There will be and Trump won't be a candidate.

    Harris has lost now, you can drop the paranoia...
    And you can drop the insouciance.
    It's not paranoid to be concerned about what Trump might do towards weakening US democracy.
    Well since the Dems have shown him how to do Lawfare maybe that wasnt such a good move
    Are you seriously saying that Trump should not have been prosecuted? That he should just be above the law?

    I think it is appalling that a President can't be prosecuted. America prides itself on not being a monarchy and that all are equal under the law. It appears that is not true for whoever is president though (and that is regardless of which party they belong to).

    Impeachment is not the answer as it is political.

    In times gone by a president would be embarrassed into standing down. No longer so.

    I also think the pardon system is an abuse of power (again regardless of who is president). If it is to exist it should be in the hands of a non-political body.
    It gave a new angle to Trumped up charges.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,239
    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    We all know how this will probably end .

    Ukraine loses those areas already under Russian control in exchange for an end to the war . A buffer zone is set up and Ukraine receIves security guarantees .

    How long we take to get there I’m not sure . Putin might however feel enabled to think he can go for the whole country but could Trump say look , make a deal , proclaim mission accomplished or we’ll continue to support Ukraine .

    No, we don't know.

    Trumpworld has been briefing that the U.S. will have no part in those "guarantees". In that case, Trump's willingness to hand over slices of Ukraine extends only as far as Ukraine and Europe are willing to accept his selling them out.

    How far is that ?
    I also think that Zelenskyy is not completely hopeless when it comes to working on Trump's ego. The recent mantra of "peace through strength" is probably appealing to Trump, and it's yet to be seen how this will play out.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,740
    kjh said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Hell has actually frozen over

    Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has written an article that I can't disagree with.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/08/trump-restoration-an-unmitigated-disaster-for-germany/

    While we will have problems with Trump being in the Whitehouse - it's nothing compared to the pain tariffs will impose on Germany who are already in a position of zero growth..

    It makes this no confidence motion in January all the more ridiculous. When our opposition move a no confidence motion it is heard the next day and for very good reasons. Germany have not exactly been blessed with dynamic leadership in recent times but their government is in limbo now for months, critical months as Europe tries to respond to Trump's win. It's a disaster for them, for Ukraine and for the continent.
    The Scholz government may not be dynamic but those of GDR Merkel and Gazprom Schroeder were always dynamically pro-Russia.
    I still think when the files are opened Merkel will be revealed as an FSB agent.
    I think it's more complex than that. All top politicians rely on a team; people who whisper advice into their ears. Whilst I think Schroeder might be, in Merkel's case I think it's more likely that some of her 'advisors' were tainted.
    More, I think, that she fully believed in East Politics. Which goes back long before Bismarck.

    Given her history in East Germany, she grew up seeing Russia as ally....

    It's the belief that by trade and friendship, Russia can become a useful ally of Germany.
    It starts "if we trade with Russia they will become more like us".

    And ends "we have to become more like Russia or they will not trade with us".
    In the same sort of line that is my fear with trade deals with America. I think from a financial point of view we should be able to agree trade deals that avoid the tariff threat, BUT the sticking points will be our restrictions on environmental and health requirements of US imports. if we stick to ours guns, as we should, that might result in tariffs. If we capitulate?
    We eat worse, obesity increases, and we pay far more than the tariffs in NHS costs and lower productivity down the line. Its a no brainer and the answer to their food lobby is no.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,700

    TimS said:

    FPT: Mr, Taz, " GMB played the far from cerebral Angela Rayner from 2020 describing Donald Trump as a buffoon who should not be in office this morning."

    Given her previous form, that's nicer than what she said about Conservatives in this country.

    Credit to both Rayner and Lammy for undertaking some largely correct analysis of Trump, and I’m willing to forgive them their more recent diplomacy given the realpolitik of the situation. So long as they don’t turn fully into simpering supplicants to the US like British politicians so often do.

    In the meantime the Lib Dems will have the luxury of saying what most Labour (and Tory) politicians think.

    From the AEP piece on Germany linked to earlier in this thread:-

    David Lammy began cultivating Trump’s advisers before it was fashionable again, under his doctrine of ‘progressive realism’.

    He has dined cheerfully with the authors of Project 2025, the alleged playbook of a Trump 2.0 presidency, which states that “trade with the post-Brexit UK needs urgent development before London slips back into the orbit of the EU”.

    The special relationship will be awkward but Labour and MAGA may not be such visceral foes after all.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/08/trump-restoration-an-unmitigated-disaster-for-germany/

    Last year David Lammy was credited with landing Keir Starmer a prominent role in Europe's D-Day celebrations even though he was only Leader of the Opposition.

    PB Tories, and Westminster Tories, should not misunderestimate the Foreign Secretary.
    If you misunderestimate are you estimating correctly or overestimating perhaps?
    It woukd be hard to underestimate Lammy.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,457
    stodge said:

    algarkirk said:

    The single most intelligent step the EU and UK can take for European democracy at this rather dark time is to comprehend that the UK left the EU over what was, in the great scheme of things, a little local difficulty, namely the power to derogate from freedom of movement.

    A joint statement (or one just from the EU) saying that EU/single market/customs union/EEA/EFTA can be discussed om the basis of such a derogation would transform the current political climate. Once Europe starts getting serious about military matters it needs the UK, and we need them.

    So it's the Four Freedoms for everyone else and the Three Freedoms for us or are we going to allow the EU countries to pick and choose which Freedoms they want as well?

    The four Freedoms:

    Free movement of Goods
    Free movement of Capital
    Freedom to establish and provide Services
    Free movement of Labour


    I suspect the intention of Freedom of Labour was to allow people to move freely round Europe but working and studying - the notion of moving from X to Y "to look for work" is where it's come unstuck as naturally people from poorer areas have gone to the richer areas or simply followed the money as people have for centuries.

    The alternative would be a bureaucracy of work permits or visas whereby you could only enter Y from X if you had a confirmed job offer and confirmed accommodation in Y. That's how many other countries operate and it works for them but we (or rather Europe) didn't want the complications of such a system - better to let people freely from X to Y, A, B, C or wherever just as they could within X itself.
    All true. All noted. But balance this with three things:
    A permanent opt out from the Euro, which we had, was just as much a spanner, and a non removeable one, in the basic aims of the EU.

    Countries derogate from Schengen when they feel like it.

    A derogation would be two way of course, so we would suffer as well as gain by having it.

    Finally, we are a nuclear power, and along with France it is getting more and more possible we will be needed as an effective deterrent as well as a well organised (!) armed forces. It is time to strengthen European alliances.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,738
    algarkirk said:

    The single most intelligent step the EU and UK can take for European democracy at this rather dark time is to comprehend that the UK left the EU over what was, in the great scheme of things, a little local difficulty, namely the power to derogate from freedom of movement.

    A joint statement (or one just from the EU) saying that EU/single market/customs union/EEA/EFTA can be discussed om the basis of such a derogation would transform the current political climate. Once Europe starts getting serious about military matters it needs the UK, and we need them.

    The immigration officer at Frankfurt this week asked me "how long are you staying in Europe"?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,457
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Why are the media continuing to go on about past comments made by Labour about Trump .

    His own VP made similar statements !

    As long as you arse lick Trump he’s quite happy to be forgiving.

    The media are in awe of Trump. So are the commentariat. Charitably you could say they love a winner, no matter how despicable. Uncharitably you could say he’s done to them what he’s done to so many others: hypnotised them into a state of catatonic acceptance evolving into love.

    Most of them on this side of the Atlantic retain some semblance of distancing and critique for now, but it won’t last. Watch as the right wing media in the UK slowly embraces MAGA. It’s not long till “Hurrah for the redcaps” articles start popping up in the Daily Mail.
    The right wing press will now likely go into make a trade deal with the USA mode .
    Everyone will be in that mode. Would you rather we start a trade war ?
    We're somewhat better placed than (say) Germany for that negotiation, but it's going to be painful. We simply have to accept that for the time being the US is, in trade terms, something of an adversary.
    There’s very little to be gained from any realistic trade deal. We are an extremely weak negotiating partner facing a very protectionist, and very economically powerful country.

    The most likely outcome would be the sort of one sided arrangement that would deliver to our farmers something rather less palatable than 20% inheritance tax on their estates.
    20% inheritance tax on their estates is more damaging longer term to family farms than a deal which expands their exports to the US market even if it also leads to cheaper US imports here too.

    As it is though we will likely end up with higher tariffs on US meat and vegetable imports in response to the US tariffs imposed on UK and other nation imports
    Before assuming family farmers will pay 20% IHT, talk off the record to some busy rural lawyers and accountants. They won't. With a bit of luck Dyson and chancers like Clarkson will; but, as they say, don't bet the farm on that either.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,764
    edited November 8
    @hyufd I hope you noticed yesterday I congratulated you on being so close with your suggestion of a possible Harris EV win but Trump PV. I don't think anyone thought that possible, as the odds showed, but someone pointed out yesterday how close it actually was.

    PS it was @MikeL who did the analysis.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,834
    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think people are over-thinking this election.
    Trump lost in 2020 because of his inadequate response to COVID.
    Biden/Harris lost in 2024 because of the inflation caused by the government stimulus to the COVID-hit economy.

    If that is the reason we should forecast the Republicans' worst result since 1936 in 2028 given what Trump's proposing to unleash.

    If of course there is an election in 2028.
    There will be and Trump won't be a candidate.

    Harris has lost now, you can drop the paranoia...
    And you can drop the insouciance.
    It's not paranoid to be concerned about what Trump might do towards weakening US democracy.
    Well since the Dems have shown him how to do Lawfare maybe that wasnt such a good move
    Are you seriously saying that Trump should not have been prosecuted? That he should just be above the law?

    I think it is appalling that a President can't be prosecuted. America prides itself on not being a monarchy and that all are equal under the law. It appears that is not true for whoever is president though (and that is regardless of which party they belong to).

    Impeachment is not the answer as it is political.

    In times gone by a president would be embarrassed into standing down. No longer so.

    I also think the pardon system is an abuse of power (again regardless of who is president). If it is to exist it should be in the hands of a non-political body.
    TBF, the (partially Trump appointed, soon to be majority Trump appointed) Supreme Court agrees with him.

    So you have principle, and morality on your side; Alanbrooke, executive fiat.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,722
    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,740

    algarkirk said:

    The single most intelligent step the EU and UK can take for European democracy at this rather dark time is to comprehend that the UK left the EU over what was, in the great scheme of things, a little local difficulty, namely the power to derogate from freedom of movement.

    A joint statement (or one just from the EU) saying that EU/single market/customs union/EEA/EFTA can be discussed om the basis of such a derogation would transform the current political climate. Once Europe starts getting serious about military matters it needs the UK, and we need them.

    You are talking common sense and a sensible solution

    However, freedom of movement is at the heart of the EU project and I cannot see it happening
    At some point the EU will have to move to more of a a pick'n'mix or tiered style organisation and at that point the UK can get involved as some kind of associate member, active, even leading, in some areas but not others. Trump could accelerate that process quite sharply depending on how disruptive he chooses to be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Sean_F said:

    Meanwhile, at the other end of the scale:

    Only three of yesterday's byelection results have been reported overnight:
    Wyre, Marsh Mill: RUK gain from C
    Blackpool, Bispham: Lab gain from C
    Bracknell, Great Hollands: Lab hold
    6 seats to declare today, Previews at andrewspreviews.substack.com


    https://bsky.app/profile/andrewteale.bsky.social/post/3lag7xrvsiz2z

    Still to come, five in Scotland and a Green defence in Herefordshire.

    It looks like Reform will do very well in Blackpool and its environs in 2025.

    The Bispham result was a bit odd. Labour’s vote share dropped sharply, but they squeezed a win, because the right wing vote was split between Conservatives, Reform, and an independent Conservative.
    Yes far from Badenoch squeezing the Reform vote it looks like Farage's party is stronger than ever against her Tories and Starmer Labour on last night's local by election results
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,684
    edited November 8

    Construction PMIs:

    UK 54.3
    France 42.2
    Germany 40.2

    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases

    Anecdata from my B-in-L (steel erecting - works with the big theme parks such as Thorpe a lot, on infrastructure) - they are on their first slow down for years. Not sure why at the moment, but Thorpe etc are not going all guns blazing with new investment.
    OTOH Center Parcs are aiming to open a new park, in the Scottish Borders. (Not entirely surprising - our neighbours have been going down south with the grandchildren for several years.) But I don't suppose they need much steel for what they do.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr4lzznlrk6o
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think people are over-thinking this election.
    Trump lost in 2020 because of his inadequate response to COVID.
    Biden/Harris lost in 2024 because of the inflation caused by the government stimulus to the COVID-hit economy.

    If that is the reason we should forecast the Republicans' worst result since 1936 in 2028 given what Trump's proposing to unleash.

    If of course there is an election in 2028.
    There will be and Trump won't be a candidate.

    Harris has lost now, you can drop the paranoia...
    And you can drop the insouciance.
    It's not paranoid to be concerned about what Trump might do towards weakening US democracy.
    Well since the Dems have shown him how to do Lawfare maybe that wasnt such a good move
    Are you seriously saying that Trump should not have been prosecuted? That he should just be above the law?

    I think it is appalling that a President can't be prosecuted. America prides itself on not being a monarchy and that all are equal under the law. It appears that is not true for whoever is president though (and that is regardless of which party they belong to).

    Impeachment is not the answer as it is political.

    In times gone by a president would be embarrassed into standing down. No longer so.

    I also think the pardon system is an abuse of power (again regardless of who is president). If it is to exist it should be in the hands of a non-political body.
    TBF, the (partially Trump appointed, soon to be majority Trump appointed) Supreme Court agrees with him.

    So you have principle, and morality on your side; Alanbrooke, executive fiat.
    I told you numerous times the Lawfare approach would be counterproductive and that the Dems should be spending their efforts on putting policy to voters.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,740
    kjh said:

    @hyufd I hope you noticed yesterday I congratulated you on being so close with your suggestion of a possible Harris EV win but Trump PV. I don't think anyone thought that possible, as the odds showed, but someone pointed out yesterday how close it actually was.

    PS it was @MikeL who did the analysis.

    RCS was tipping this long before HYUFD.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,013

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think people are over-thinking this election.
    Trump lost in 2020 because of his inadequate response to COVID.
    Biden/Harris lost in 2024 because of the inflation caused by the government stimulus to the COVID-hit economy.

    If that is the reason we should forecast the Republicans' worst result since 1936 in 2028 given what Trump's proposing to unleash.

    If of course there is an election in 2028.
    I wouldn't automatically assume that.

    We just don't know yet how he's going to govern; the appointment of Wiles as CoS keeps that ambiguous for now; it suggests the possibility of a degree of pragmatism, though by no means guaranteeing it.
    The involvement of RFK Jr. suggests a degree of utter madness.
    He's not the only politician to have harboured doubts about vaccines. A certain T. Blair and his wife almost certainly avoided the use of MMR for their son at the time of Wakefield pushing nonsense about MMW/autism.
    MMR rejection was a high status position tho' and thus we must give a free pass to those who embraced it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,740

    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

    Betfair need to add DJT in to the mix. Would love to know what he would trade at. There must be some willing to lay 50+ as it can't possibly happen according to the rules.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,764

    kjh said:

    @hyufd I hope you noticed yesterday I congratulated you on being so close with your suggestion of a possible Harris EV win but Trump PV. I don't think anyone thought that possible, as the odds showed, but someone pointed out yesterday how close it actually was.

    PS it was @MikeL who did the analysis.

    RCS was tipping this long before HYUFD.
    Didn't spot that. Credit to @rcs1000 then also. Even if no reward.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,931
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Why are the media continuing to go on about past comments made by Labour about Trump .

    His own VP made similar statements !

    As long as you arse lick Trump he’s quite happy to be forgiving.

    The media are in awe of Trump. So are the commentariat. Charitably you could say they love a winner, no matter how despicable. Uncharitably you could say he’s done to them what he’s done to so many others: hypnotised them into a state of catatonic acceptance evolving into love.

    Most of them on this side of the Atlantic retain some semblance of distancing and critique for now, but it won’t last. Watch as the right wing media in the UK slowly embraces MAGA. It’s not long till “Hurrah for the redcaps” articles start popping up in the Daily Mail.
    The right wing press will now likely go into make a trade deal with the USA mode .
    Everyone will be in that mode. Would you rather we start a trade war ?
    We're somewhat better placed than (say) Germany for that negotiation, but it's going to be painful. We simply have to accept that for the time being the US is, in trade terms, something of an adversary.
    There’s very little to be gained from any realistic trade deal. We are an extremely weak negotiating partner facing a very protectionist, and very economically powerful country.

    The most likely outcome would be the sort of one sided arrangement that would deliver to our farmers something rather less palatable than 20% inheritance tax on their estates.
    20% inheritance tax on their estates is more damaging longer term to family farms than a deal which expands their exports to the US market even if it also leads to cheaper US imports here too.

    As it is though we will likely end up with higher tariffs on US meat and vegetable imports in response to the US tariffs imposed on UK and other nation imports
    Before assuming family farmers will pay 20% IHT, talk off the record to some busy rural lawyers and accountants. They won't. With a bit of luck Dyson and chancers like Clarkson will; but, as they say, don't bet the farm on that either.
    Which is why it is nonsense - it imposes a cost on the everyone owning land, in order to try and stop/reduce a behaviour by one group (avoid IHT by using land).

    The productivity of an entire sector has just taken a hit, for not much return.

    The sane approach would have been to think - what is different between the behaviour of farmers passing the farm, intact, to their children and the tax planners. To me, that is obviously, that the tax planning types will want to get the money out. So, a more targeted solution would have been to look at *sales* of land.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611

    Nigelb said:

    I think people are over-thinking this election.
    Trump lost in 2020 because of his inadequate response to COVID.
    Biden/Harris lost in 2024 because of the inflation caused by the government stimulus to the COVID-hit economy.

    That's very probably true.

    But election results allow us to project our own particular preconceptions onto them. Whether loser or winner.
    For example the current argument in the Democrats about whether Harris was insufficient liberal, or too much so (almost certainly irrelevant).
    Looking at the global picture and what happened in the swing states, if anything their campaign worked against them.

    But a win is a win. And yes, the same applies to SKSICIPM.
    Why say something barking like that?

    Trump won a majority of the vote. The first time a Republican had done so for 20 years. SKS barely scraped 30%.

    You can't dress that up. And the more you do the longer his opponents will be out of office.
    But equally the losing Democratic candidate in the US won 47.7%+, while the Conservatives here got 23.7%. Starmer’s lead over the Tories is considerably bigger than Trump’s over Harris.
    The Tories and Reform combined are considerably bigger than Starmer Labour
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,684
    edited November 8
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Why are the media continuing to go on about past comments made by Labour about Trump .

    His own VP made similar statements !

    As long as you arse lick Trump he’s quite happy to be forgiving.

    The media are in awe of Trump. So are the commentariat. Charitably you could say they love a winner, no matter how despicable. Uncharitably you could say he’s done to them what he’s done to so many others: hypnotised them into a state of catatonic acceptance evolving into love.

    Most of them on this side of the Atlantic retain some semblance of distancing and critique for now, but it won’t last. Watch as the right wing media in the UK slowly embraces MAGA. It’s not long till “Hurrah for the redcaps” articles start popping up in the Daily Mail.
    The right wing press will now likely go into make a trade deal with the USA mode .
    Everyone will be in that mode. Would you rather we start a trade war ?
    We're somewhat better placed than (say) Germany for that negotiation, but it's going to be painful. We simply have to accept that for the time being the US is, in trade terms, something of an adversary.
    There’s very little to be gained from any realistic trade deal. We are an extremely weak negotiating partner facing a very protectionist, and very economically powerful country.

    The most likely outcome would be the sort of one sided arrangement that would deliver to our farmers something rather less palatable than 20% inheritance tax on their estates.
    20% inheritance tax on their estates is more damaging longer term to family farms than a deal which expands their exports to the US market even if it also leads to cheaper US imports here too.

    As it is though we will likely end up with higher tariffs on US meat and vegetable imports in response to the US tariffs imposed on UK and other nation imports
    Before assuming family farmers will pay 20% IHT, talk off the record to some busy rural lawyers and accountants. They won't. With a bit of luck Dyson and chancers like Clarkson will; but, as they say, don't bet the farm on that either.
    In any case, each couple has an allowance of £2m if they are resident in the farmhouse and have children - and even then the starting rate is absurdly low by the standards imposed on the rest of us. And most farmland isn't owned by family farmers either.

    Moreover, it ill behoves a Tory to cry buckets of onions over this after the decades of ill-treatment of farmers and food growers in the UK by the big corporate donors to the Tory Party.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,290
    Carnyx said:

    Construction PMIs:

    UK 54.3
    France 42.2
    Germany 40.2

    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases

    Anecdata from my B-in-L (steel erecting - works with the big theme parks such as Thorpe a lot, on infrastructure) - they are on their first slow down for years. Not sure why at the moment, but Thorpe etc are not going all guns blazing with new investment.
    OTOH Center Parcs are aiming to open a new park, in the Scottish Borders. (Not entirely surprising - our neighbours have been going down south with the grandchildren for several years.) But I don't suppose they need much steel for what they do.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr4lzznlrk6o
    Ah yes, Centre Parcs - the 21st century version of Stalag Luft 3 for your holidays...


    (I live near the one in Warminster Forest, replete with its magnificent fence that Steve McQueen's motor bike would not have cleared...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,722
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Meanwhile, at the other end of the scale:

    Only three of yesterday's byelection results have been reported overnight:
    Wyre, Marsh Mill: RUK gain from C
    Blackpool, Bispham: Lab gain from C
    Bracknell, Great Hollands: Lab hold
    6 seats to declare today, Previews at andrewspreviews.substack.com


    https://bsky.app/profile/andrewteale.bsky.social/post/3lag7xrvsiz2z

    Still to come, five in Scotland and a Green defence in Herefordshire.

    It looks like Reform will do very well in Blackpool and its environs in 2025.

    The Bispham result was a bit odd. Labour’s vote share dropped sharply, but they squeezed a win, because the right wing vote was split between Conservatives, Reform, and an independent Conservative.
    Yes far from Badenoch squeezing the Reform vote it looks like Farage's party is stronger than ever against her Tories and Starmer Labour on last night's local by election results
    To be fair to Kemi Badenoch, she has only been in post for five minutes, and Nigel Farage has been all over the telly as a mate of the President-elect.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,740

    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

    Betfair need to add DJT in to the mix. Would love to know what he would trade at. There must be some willing to lay 50+ as it can't possibly happen according to the rules.
    Bernie Sanders on the list, he will be 87 by then, 91 at the end of the term!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,931
    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think people are over-thinking this election.
    Trump lost in 2020 because of his inadequate response to COVID.
    Biden/Harris lost in 2024 because of the inflation caused by the government stimulus to the COVID-hit economy.

    If that is the reason we should forecast the Republicans' worst result since 1936 in 2028 given what Trump's proposing to unleash.

    If of course there is an election in 2028.
    I wouldn't automatically assume that.

    We just don't know yet how he's going to govern; the appointment of Wiles as CoS keeps that ambiguous for now; it suggests the possibility of a degree of pragmatism, though by no means guaranteeing it.
    The involvement of RFK Jr. suggests a degree of utter madness.
    He's not the only politician to have harboured doubts about vaccines. A certain T. Blair and his wife almost certainly avoided the use of MMR for their son at the time of Wakefield pushing nonsense about MMW/autism.
    MMR rejection was a high status position tho' and thus we must give a free pass to those who embraced it.
    It was also the first step in the spiral of lunacy that overtook quite a few "high status" people. They started with MMR and worked their way down....

    The type was brilliantly parodied by Lisa Kudrow in Death To 2020.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,834

    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

    Newsome is an interesting one.

    Conventional wisdom is that a California liberal has no chance next time around. But Newsome is a political animal, not a conviction politician, and California Democratic politics is already shifting to the centre.

    His chances rest on how well he manages California over the next couple of years.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,457

    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    Why are the media continuing to go on about past comments made by Labour about Trump .

    His own VP made similar statements !

    As long as you arse lick Trump he’s quite happy to be forgiving.

    The media are in awe of Trump. So are the commentariat. Charitably you could say they love a winner, no matter how despicable. Uncharitably you could say he’s done to them what he’s done to so many others: hypnotised them into a state of catatonic acceptance evolving into love.

    Most of them on this side of the Atlantic retain some semblance of distancing and critique for now, but it won’t last. Watch as the right wing media in the UK slowly embraces MAGA. It’s not long till “Hurrah for the redcaps” articles start popping up in the Daily Mail.
    "The media are in awe of Trump. So are the commentariat."

    What the media and the commentariat want are stories. Good government is usually bland and boring, generating few 'real' stories. Someone like Trump provides them with a massive number of stories, both now and in the future. Even when he does 'good' things, he does it in such a way that there is a story.

    So Trump is much better for business than Harris - because he provides them with stories.

    I remember a BBC tennis commentator talking when Pete Sampras announced his retirement. He said he was glad Sampras was retiring, as he was fairly boring to interview and did not generate many stories. I thought it was quite an admission about someone who was arguably the best ever player at the time.
    Voters don't mind boring politicians being boring in times of great peace, prosperity and sunlit uplands. They react strongly against bland boring people who don't answer questions in times of incompetence, doubt or danger.

    The media are reliant on listeners and viewers. In a free market media, populist will drive out truth every time.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,552
    edited November 8

    TimS said:

    FPT: Mr, Taz, " GMB played the far from cerebral Angela Rayner from 2020 describing Donald Trump as a buffoon who should not be in office this morning."

    Given her previous form, that's nicer than what she said about Conservatives in this country.

    Credit to both Rayner and Lammy for undertaking some largely correct analysis of Trump, and I’m willing to forgive them their more recent diplomacy given the realpolitik of the situation. So long as they don’t turn fully into simpering supplicants to the US like British politicians so often do.

    In the meantime the Lib Dems will have the luxury of saying what most Labour (and Tory) politicians think.

    From the AEP piece on Germany linked to earlier in this thread:-

    David Lammy began cultivating Trump’s advisers before it was fashionable again, under his doctrine of ‘progressive realism’.

    He has dined cheerfully with the authors of Project 2025, the alleged playbook of a Trump 2.0 presidency, which states that “trade with the post-Brexit UK needs urgent development before London slips back into the orbit of the EU”.

    The special relationship will be awkward but Labour and MAGA may not be such visceral foes after all.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/08/trump-restoration-an-unmitigated-disaster-for-germany/

    Last year David Lammy was credited with landing Keir Starmer a prominent role in Europe's D-Day celebrations even though he was only Leader of the Opposition.

    PB Tories, and Westminster Tories, should not misunderestimate the Foreign Secretary.
    JD Vance called Trump America's Hitler. He's now VP.

    4D chess from Lammy; he'll probably end up as CEO of the Trump Organisation.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,722

    kjh said:

    @hyufd I hope you noticed yesterday I congratulated you on being so close with your suggestion of a possible Harris EV win but Trump PV. I don't think anyone thought that possible, as the odds showed, but someone pointed out yesterday how close it actually was.

    PS it was @MikeL who did the analysis.

    RCS was tipping this long before HYUFD.
    Why argue the toss over which of three PBers tipped this? Your stake money stayed in your bookmaker's satchel. (And I speak as someone who has just shredded a betting slip with a winning horse running onto Kamala.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Roger said:

    FPT: Mr, Taz, " GMB played the far from cerebral Angela Rayner from 2020 describing Donald Trump as a buffoon who should not be in office this morning."

    Given her previous form, that's nicer than what she said about Conservatives in this country.

    With typical French guile Macron congratulated him and described him as 'a politician with convictions'
    With Trump back Macron also positioned himself as de facto leader of Europe and in effect the liberal free world now. Macron will also likely lead efforts to ensure Zelensky continues to get the support he needs despite Trump
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,740

    kjh said:

    @hyufd I hope you noticed yesterday I congratulated you on being so close with your suggestion of a possible Harris EV win but Trump PV. I don't think anyone thought that possible, as the odds showed, but someone pointed out yesterday how close it actually was.

    PS it was @MikeL who did the analysis.

    RCS was tipping this long before HYUFD.
    Why argue the toss over which of three PBers tipped this? Your stake money stayed in your bookmaker's satchel. (And I speak as someone who has just shredded a betting slip with a winning horse running onto Kamala.)
    I'm not arguing, just stating a fact. Seeing as RCS is one of the hosts seemed appropriate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,068

    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

    Betfair need to add DJT in to the mix. Would love to know what he would trade at. There must be some willing to lay 50+ as it can't possibly happen according to the rules.
    Bernie Sanders on the list, he will be 87 by then, 91 at the end of the term!
    Trump 1-20 lol. Have the punters checked the US constitution ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Pulpstar said:

    nico679 said:

    I think Harris will go for governor of California when Newsom has to finish because of term limits .

    Given California's rightward shift and the fact voters are less party bound for the Governor's mansion than other races the GOP could win with the right candidate against her.
    No, Harris still won California by more than Trump won the US overall.

    The only Republican who could win California now is a moderate social liberal like Schwarzenegger. Even Arnold backed Harris this time though
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,740
    Pulpstar said:

    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

    Betfair need to add DJT in to the mix. Would love to know what he would trade at. There must be some willing to lay 50+ as it can't possibly happen according to the rules.
    Bernie Sanders on the list, he will be 87 by then, 91 at the end of the term!
    Trump 1-20 lol. Have the punters checked the US constitution ?
    The 1/20 will be scraping a last price on the 2024 GE and the comparison site getting it wrong. DJT not quoted generally, definitely not on Betfair yet.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,290
    Pulpstar said:

    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

    Betfair need to add DJT in to the mix. Would love to know what he would trade at. There must be some willing to lay 50+ as it can't possibly happen according to the rules.
    Bernie Sanders on the list, he will be 87 by then, 91 at the end of the term!
    Trump 1-20 lol. Have the punters checked the US constitution ?
    But is that the bet though? The other two have 2028 under them, Trump doesn't. I'm not sure its the same.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,068
    Turnout in PA 10,000 down from 2020 (For the general). So I'd assume they're close to finishing the count
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,834
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    FPT: Mr, Taz, " GMB played the far from cerebral Angela Rayner from 2020 describing Donald Trump as a buffoon who should not be in office this morning."

    Given her previous form, that's nicer than what she said about Conservatives in this country.

    With typical French guile Macron congratulated him and described him as 'a politician with convictions'
    With Trump back Macron also positioned himself as de facto leader of Europe and in effect the liberal free world now. Macron will also likely lead efforts to ensure Zelensky continues to get the support he needs despite Trump
    There's a large gap between Macron's rhetorical and the hard support provided by France though. The latter isn't negligible, but neither does it provide the kind of European leadership that his words imply.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,722

    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

    Betfair need to add DJT in to the mix. Would love to know what he would trade at. There must be some willing to lay 50+ as it can't possibly happen according to the rules.
    Some Betfair 2024 markets are still open: those that depend on the popular vote which is still being counted.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,833
    algarkirk said:

    The single most intelligent step the EU and UK can take for European democracy at this rather dark time is to....

    Oh give over.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,233
    Pulpstar said:

    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

    Betfair need to add DJT in to the mix. Would love to know what he would trade at. There must be some willing to lay 50+ as it can't possibly happen according to the rules.
    Bernie Sanders on the list, he will be 87 by then, 91 at the end of the term!
    Trump 1-20 lol. Have the punters checked the US constitution ?
    How can I lay that?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,737
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    FPT: Mr, Taz, " GMB played the far from cerebral Angela Rayner from 2020 describing Donald Trump as a buffoon who should not be in office this morning."

    Given her previous form, that's nicer than what she said about Conservatives in this country.

    With typical French guile Macron congratulated him and described him as 'a politician with convictions'
    With Trump back Macron also positioned himself as de facto leader of Europe and in effect the liberal free world now. Macron will also likely lead efforts to ensure Zelensky continues to get the support he needs despite Trump
    There was an interesting story of Cameron and Boris J having dinner with trump recently to help soften the sharp edges of his Ukrainian policy.

    That bullet will have sharpened trump’s mind on his own mortality and his legacy. I am relatively optimistic that a solution approaching messy stability for Ukraine will be enacted before 2025 is out. Trump doesn’t want the fall of kiev in his obits, he wants the photo of him standing with Putin and Zelensky, “the ultimate deal maker”. Europe will then have ~5 years to buck its ideas up and build a credible conventional deterrent.

    As for Iran, in an ideal world the ayatollah carks it before trump gets his feet under the table. Because otherwise that might get rather hot.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,740
    Any thoughts on new Chief of Staff pick, Susie Wiles? A cursory glance suggests she is a sensible choice?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,740

    Pulpstar said:

    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

    Betfair need to add DJT in to the mix. Would love to know what he would trade at. There must be some willing to lay 50+ as it can't possibly happen according to the rules.
    Bernie Sanders on the list, he will be 87 by then, 91 at the end of the term!
    Trump 1-20 lol. Have the punters checked the US constitution ?
    How can I lay that?
    Time machine, and it is for 2024, so you'd lose.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,722
    edited November 8

    Pulpstar said:

    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

    Betfair need to add DJT in to the mix. Would love to know what he would trade at. There must be some willing to lay 50+ as it can't possibly happen according to the rules.
    Bernie Sanders on the list, he will be 87 by then, 91 at the end of the term!
    Trump 1-20 lol. Have the punters checked the US constitution ?
    How can I lay that?
    Why would you want to? You'd get a better interest rate from your local building society.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,834

    Any thoughts on new Chief of Staff pick, Susie Wiles? A cursory glance suggests she is a sensible choice?

    Probably the most competent of all Trump's options.
    And it postpones for a while any easy judgment of how he will govern.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,068
    Atlasintel looks like it polled the best
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,834
    🇩🇪 Former German Finance Minister Christian Lindner claims Chancellor Scholz fired him over his proposal to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine instead of €3 billion in financial aid. Lindner suggested this due to Germany's financial difficulties.
    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1854796859199406151
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,740

    Pulpstar said:

    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

    Betfair need to add DJT in to the mix. Would love to know what he would trade at. There must be some willing to lay 50+ as it can't possibly happen according to the rules.
    Bernie Sanders on the list, he will be 87 by then, 91 at the end of the term!
    Trump 1-20 lol. Have the punters checked the US constitution ?
    How can I lay that?
    Why would you want to? You'd get a better interest rate from your local building society.
    Are you living in Venezuela?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,270
    Pulpstar said:

    nico679 said:

    I think Harris will go for governor of California when Newsom has to finish because of term limits .

    Given California's rightward shift and the fact voters are less party bound for the Governor's mansion than other races the GOP could win with the right candidate against her.
    There’s zero chance Harris would lose . The Dems still have a huge lead in California even with that right shift .
  • eekeek Posts: 28,233
    Nigelb said:

    🇩🇪 Former German Finance Minister Christian Lindner claims Chancellor Scholz fired him over his proposal to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine instead of €3 billion in financial aid. Lindner suggested this due to Germany's financial difficulties.
    https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1854796859199406151

    If Christian Lindner thinks Germany has finance difficulties at the moment - wait until next year..
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,239
    Personally I think we should keep military cooperation with the EU/other European countries firmly separated from any immediate question of reckoning the EU or the single market.

    The latter is too divisive, and the former is too important to be held up by doubts over it.

    There is a case to be made for greater cooperation in other areas, especially once mutual trust has been improved by successful defence cooperation.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 463
    Has this been discussed?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/08/swing-states-how-democrat-vote-stayed-flat-while-republican-gains-won-it-for-trump

    Analysis summary is that Dem vote in swing states slightly down but deciding factor was large increase in Trump vote.
    Trends in other states differed but not relevant to EC result.

    So the question is, how did the GOP mobilise their vote in the swing states so effectively when reporting was that they had a poor ground operation.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,800
    So no-one on pb has thought it worth mentioning the horrendous scenes from Amsterdam?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,740
    Dopermean said:

    Has this been discussed?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/08/swing-states-how-democrat-vote-stayed-flat-while-republican-gains-won-it-for-trump

    Analysis summary is that Dem vote in swing states slightly down but deciding factor was large increase in Trump vote.
    Trends in other states differed but not relevant to EC result.

    So the question is, how did the GOP mobilise their vote in the swing states so effectively when reporting was that they had a poor ground operation.

    Social media is the obvious one. Musk flipping Twitter from a Trump ban to pro Trump editorialising could have been the difference between winning and losing on its own.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,676
    Dopermean said:

    Has this been discussed?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/08/swing-states-how-democrat-vote-stayed-flat-while-republican-gains-won-it-for-trump

    Analysis summary is that Dem vote in swing states slightly down but deciding factor was large increase in Trump vote.
    Trends in other states differed but not relevant to EC result.

    So the question is, how did the GOP mobilise their vote in the swing states so effectively when reporting was that they had a poor ground operation.

    It's not mobilisation so much as motivation. Trump motivated the voters and Harris didn't. You can lay on as many buses as you want, have thousands of activists out knocking on doors but if the voter isn't motivated to vote for your candidate it's all irrelevant. GOTV ground campaigns help in the margin, they can't overcome a poor candidate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835

    Any thoughts on new Chief of Staff pick, Susie Wiles? A cursory glance suggests she is a sensible choice?

    Being profiled on woman's hour this morning
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,186

    Pulpstar said:

    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

    Betfair need to add DJT in to the mix. Would love to know what he would trade at. There must be some willing to lay 50+ as it can't possibly happen according to the rules.
    Bernie Sanders on the list, he will be 87 by then, 91 at the end of the term!
    Trump 1-20 lol. Have the punters checked the US constitution ?
    How can I lay that?
    Why would you want to? You'd get a better interest rate from your local building society.
    This aspect of betting long-term is so commonly overlooked. 4 - 5% available on cash deposits now.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,740
    edited November 8
    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

    Betfair need to add DJT in to the mix. Would love to know what he would trade at. There must be some willing to lay 50+ as it can't possibly happen according to the rules.
    Bernie Sanders on the list, he will be 87 by then, 91 at the end of the term!
    Trump 1-20 lol. Have the punters checked the US constitution ?
    How can I lay that?
    Why would you want to? You'd get a better interest rate from your local building society.
    This aspect of betting long-term is so commonly overlooked. 4 - 5% available on cash deposits now.

    Since when does 4% compounded over 4 years beat 19x your stake?

    And as that bet is just a display error, more seriously it is pretty irrelevant to active exchange layers in such markets as you can trade in and out and lay multiple selections. I make most of my political betting money early.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,542
    Nigelb said:

    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

    Newsome is an interesting one.

    Conventional wisdom is that a California liberal has no chance next time around. But Newsome is a political animal, not a conviction politician, and California Democratic politics is already shifting to the centre.

    His chances rest on how well he manages California over the next couple of years.
    Newsom would need Trump to expel all the illegal immigrants to have a chance because he has this on his record:

    California will welcome the new year by becoming the first state to offer health insurance for all undocumented immigrants.

    Starting Jan. 1, all undocumented immigrants, regardless of age, will qualify for Medi-Cal, California's version of the federal Medicaid program for people with low incomes.


    https://abcnews.go.com/Health/california-1st-state-offer-health-insurance-undocumented-immigrants/story?id=105986377
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,146

    So no-one on pb has thought it worth mentioning the horrendous scenes from Amsterdam?

    Seems that the Maccabi fans behaved pretty badly both outside and inside the stadium. Two wrongs don't make a right, of course.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,068
    MaxPB said:

    Dopermean said:

    Has this been discussed?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/08/swing-states-how-democrat-vote-stayed-flat-while-republican-gains-won-it-for-trump

    Analysis summary is that Dem vote in swing states slightly down but deciding factor was large increase in Trump vote.
    Trends in other states differed but not relevant to EC result.

    So the question is, how did the GOP mobilise their vote in the swing states so effectively when reporting was that they had a poor ground operation.

    It's not mobilisation so much as motivation. Trump motivated the voters and Harris didn't. You can lay on as many buses as you want, have thousands of activists out knocking on doors but if the voter isn't motivated to vote for your candidate it's all irrelevant. GOTV ground campaigns help in the margin, they can't overcome a poor candidate.
    Looking at the smallish relative shift of PA compared to nationwide I think the Democrats got out all the vote they could there. Just wasn't fundamentally enough to get out. The nationwide totals show how bad the overall air and national campaign was
  • So no-one on pb has thought it worth mentioning the horrendous scenes from Amsterdam?

    Not that I've seen. They were vile and a sign of how Jewish people have to live their lives across Europe and America now. Behind walls, with guards. These tourists were not prepared, why would they be? Europe has a deep problem that it is ignoring. Let's see what Trump does.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,186

    Stocky said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oddschecker reports that two popular bets for the 2028 US Presidential election are Josh Shapiro and Taylor Swift


    Perennial bookies' Christmas fund candidate Michelle Obama is generally third best, after JD Vance and Gavin Newsome.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2028/winner

    Betfair need to add DJT in to the mix. Would love to know what he would trade at. There must be some willing to lay 50+ as it can't possibly happen according to the rules.
    Bernie Sanders on the list, he will be 87 by then, 91 at the end of the term!
    Trump 1-20 lol. Have the punters checked the US constitution ?
    How can I lay that?
    Why would you want to? You'd get a better interest rate from your local building society.
    This aspect of betting long-term is so commonly overlooked. 4 - 5% available on cash deposits now.

    Since when does 4% compounded over 4 years beat 19x your stake?

    And as that bet is just a display error, more seriously it is pretty irrelevant to active exchange layers in such markets as you can trade in and out and lay multiple selections. I make most of my political betting money early.
    Sure, I understand about the trading aspect - but higher interest rates still means higher opportunity cost between the trades.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    FPT: Mr, Taz, " GMB played the far from cerebral Angela Rayner from 2020 describing Donald Trump as a buffoon who should not be in office this morning."

    Given her previous form, that's nicer than what she said about Conservatives in this country.

    With typical French guile Macron congratulated him and described him as 'a politician with convictions'
    With Trump back Macron also positioned himself as de facto leader of Europe and in effect the liberal free world now. Macron will also likely lead efforts to ensure Zelensky continues to get the support he needs despite Trump
    There was an interesting story of Cameron and Boris J having dinner with trump recently to help soften the sharp edges of his Ukrainian policy.

    That bullet will have sharpened trump’s mind on his own mortality and his legacy. I am relatively optimistic that a solution approaching messy stability for Ukraine will be enacted before 2025 is out. Trump doesn’t want the fall of kiev in his obits, he wants the photo of him standing with Putin and Zelensky, “the ultimate deal maker”. Europe will then have ~5 years to buck its ideas up and build a credible conventional deterrent.

    As for Iran, in an ideal world the ayatollah carks it before trump gets his feet under the table. Because otherwise that might get rather hot.
    There will be no deal Putin would accept Zelensky would too. I suspect therefore the Ukraine war will be largely stalemate as now when Trump leaves office but as you say conflict between Israel and Iran may be even hotter by then
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    edited November 8
    MaxPB said:

    Dopermean said:

    Has this been discussed?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/08/swing-states-how-democrat-vote-stayed-flat-while-republican-gains-won-it-for-trump

    Analysis summary is that Dem vote in swing states slightly down but deciding factor was large increase in Trump vote.
    Trends in other states differed but not relevant to EC result.

    So the question is, how did the GOP mobilise their vote in the swing states so effectively when reporting was that they had a poor ground operation.

    It's not mobilisation so much as motivation. Trump motivated the voters and Harris didn't. You can lay on as many buses as you want, have thousands of activists out knocking on doors but if the voter isn't motivated to vote for your candidate it's all irrelevant. GOTV ground campaigns help in the margin, they can't overcome a poor candidate.
    The article actually states Democrat turnout was higher in swing states than it was nationwide due to GOTV efforts. Indeed Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Georgia by a smaller margin than he has won the US popular vote by
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,201

    Construction PMIs:

    UK 54.3
    France 42.2
    Germany 40.2

    https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Release/PressReleases

    Anecdata from my B-in-L (steel erecting - works with the big theme parks such as Thorpe a lot, on infrastructure) - they are on their first slow down for years. Not sure why at the moment, but Thorpe etc are not going all guns blazing with new investment.
    Public appetite for splashing the cash on entertainment seems weak at the moment - for my sins I'm now marketing director of a minor heritage railway, and virtually everyone in the industry is finding Christmas Santa train sales (which underpin a lot of heritage railway's business models) slow this year. We're only very slightly behind last year, but I've had to double our advertising spend to get there.

    Two friends who both run businesses selling model trains (very different - one sells high end large scale model steam locos you can ride behind, the other buys bulk collections of oo gauge sort of stuff, splits it up and sells it secondhand) say the same thing - belts being tightened, sales down or requiring much more marketing activity. They blame the budget, and surrounding mood music.

    My specialist engineering businesses really busy (order book is about 2-3 years long), but most of the sales reps I get in trying to sell me engineering gear are surprised we're busy and say most of their customers are depressingly quiet.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,406

    So no-one on pb has thought it worth mentioning the horrendous scenes from Amsterdam?

    I hadn't seen it before your post. Looks horrendous: reports of hostage-taking too.

    Even though football is involved, I'd take arguments that the Israeli fans behaved badly with some hesitation, especially if they were already being attacked.

    A big question would be how organised the attacks on the Israeli fans were.
  • Seen that Apache will be closing all their North Sea fields and cease all UK production by 2029 blaming uneconomic tax hikes.

    In what will be brushed away as unconnected:


    Alec Stapp

    @AlecStapp
    However bad you think things are in the UK, it’s worse

    https://x.com/AlecStapp/status/1854589116006207746


    UK businesses have both hands tied behind their backs. Will only get worse following the budget. No idea why any business would locate in the UK now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    kjh said:

    @hyufd I hope you noticed yesterday I congratulated you on being so close with your suggestion of a possible Harris EV win but Trump PV. I don't think anyone thought that possible, as the odds showed, but someone pointed out yesterday how close it actually was.

    PS it was @MikeL who did the analysis.

    Thanks kjh, yes as I posted below it was not far off as a tip and as mentioned RCS also mentioned it
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,146
    edited November 8
    I see Maccabi Tel Aviv's next game is in... Istanbul.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,931
    MaxPB said:

    Dopermean said:

    Has this been discussed?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/08/swing-states-how-democrat-vote-stayed-flat-while-republican-gains-won-it-for-trump

    Analysis summary is that Dem vote in swing states slightly down but deciding factor was large increase in Trump vote.
    Trends in other states differed but not relevant to EC result.

    So the question is, how did the GOP mobilise their vote in the swing states so effectively when reporting was that they had a poor ground operation.

    It's not mobilisation so much as motivation. Trump motivated the voters and Harris didn't. You can lay on as many buses as you want, have thousands of activists out knocking on doors but if the voter isn't motivated to vote for your candidate it's all irrelevant. GOTV ground campaigns help in the margin, they can't overcome a poor candidate.
    You can see that in the past voting numbers - Biden got a lot more people to vote Democrat, when he won.

    Democrat Republican
    2020 81,283,501 74,223,975
    2016 65,853,514 62,984,828
    2012 65,915,795 60,933,504
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,296
    tlg86 said:

    So no-one on pb has thought it worth mentioning the horrendous scenes from Amsterdam?

    Seems that the Maccabi fans behaved pretty badly both outside and inside the stadium. Two wrongs don't make a right, of course.
    From the BBC live feed

    "Some Maccabi fans 'looking for a fight', witness tells BBC
    published at 10:15
    10:15

    Victoria Park-Froud
    BBC News

    I've spoken to a fan who went to the match last night, who reports seeing Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters on the Amsterdam metro "going up and down the carriages three or four times looking for a fight".

    Conor Dalton tells me: "I felt worried. Everyone was going into the city so everyone knew what was going to happen."

    He adds that he is "shocked by the portrayal" of the incident in the media, adding that the attacks were "completely provoked" and Palestinian flags were "torn down the night before".

    As a reminder, authorities in the Netherlands have condemned antisemitic attacks on Israeli fans – with Amsterdam’s mayor reporting Israeli supporters were "actively sought out" for violence across the city."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,834

    MaxPB said:

    Dopermean said:

    Has this been discussed?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/08/swing-states-how-democrat-vote-stayed-flat-while-republican-gains-won-it-for-trump

    Analysis summary is that Dem vote in swing states slightly down but deciding factor was large increase in Trump vote.
    Trends in other states differed but not relevant to EC result.

    So the question is, how did the GOP mobilise their vote in the swing states so effectively when reporting was that they had a poor ground operation.

    It's not mobilisation so much as motivation. Trump motivated the voters and Harris didn't. You can lay on as many buses as you want, have thousands of activists out knocking on doors but if the voter isn't motivated to vote for your candidate it's all irrelevant. GOTV ground campaigns help in the margin, they can't overcome a poor candidate.
    You can see that in the past voting numbers - Biden got a lot more people to vote Democrat, when he won.

    Democrat Republican
    2020 81,283,501 74,223,975
    2016 65,853,514 62,984,828
    2012 65,915,795 60,933,504
    Biden's vote, though, was a complete historical outlier, for either Democratic or Republican candidates this century.
  • tlg86 said:

    So no-one on pb has thought it worth mentioning the horrendous scenes from Amsterdam?

    Seems that the Maccabi fans behaved pretty badly both outside and inside the stadium. Two wrongs don't make a right, of course.
    That's some take.
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