Interesting edition of the Telegraph Battle Lines podcast, looking at international and strategic consequences of his Election.
What will Trump's second term look like? On today's episode of Battle Lines we discuss Donald Trump's re-election and its implications for both the US and the wider world. 45 minutes.
Contributors Roland Oliphant (Host) Robert Mendick (Chief Reporter) Edward Arnold (Senior Research Fellow at RUSI)
So no-one on pb has thought it worth mentioning the horrendous scenes from Amsterdam?
Seems that the Maccabi fans behaved pretty badly both outside and inside the stadium. Two wrongs don't make a right, of course.
From the BBC live feed
"Some Maccabi fans 'looking for a fight', witness tells BBC published at 10:15 10:15
Victoria Park-Froud BBC News
I've spoken to a fan who went to the match last night, who reports seeing Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters on the Amsterdam metro "going up and down the carriages three or four times looking for a fight".
Conor Dalton tells me: "I felt worried. Everyone was going into the city so everyone knew what was going to happen."
He adds that he is "shocked by the portrayal" of the incident in the media, adding that the attacks were "completely provoked" and Palestinian flags were "torn down the night before".
As a reminder, authorities in the Netherlands have condemned antisemitic attacks on Israeli fans – with Amsterdam’s mayor reporting Israeli supporters were "actively sought out" for violence across the city."
From what I've seen online, I'm not sure it's fair to say the attacks were provoked. It looks to me like the attacks on the Israelis were on individuals (may be other footage I've not seen).
The chair of Octopus energy was interviewed this morning, and had very similar comments. And also noted that the $20bn subsidy for CCS was effectively a subsidy for the oil and gas industry (which it is), but not one which would be of much economic benefit to the UK (also correct).
Anecdata from my B-in-L (steel erecting - works with the big theme parks such as Thorpe a lot, on infrastructure) - they are on their first slow down for years. Not sure why at the moment, but Thorpe etc are not going all guns blazing with new investment.
Public appetite for splashing the cash on entertainment seems weak at the moment - for my sins I'm now marketing director of a minor heritage railway, and virtually everyone in the industry is finding Christmas Santa train sales (which underpin a lot of heritage railway's business models) slow this year. We're only very slightly behind last year, but I've had to double our advertising spend to get there.
Two friends who both run businesses selling model trains (very different - one sells high end large scale model steam locos you can ride behind, the other buys bulk collections of oo gauge sort of stuff, splits it up and sells it secondhand) say the same thing - belts being tightened, sales down or requiring much more marketing activity. They blame the budget, and surrounding mood music.
My specialist engineering businesses really busy (order book is about 2-3 years long), but most of the sales reps I get in trying to sell me engineering gear are surprised we're busy and say most of their customers are depressingly quiet.
My day job is a specialist in a particular software package which is usually the go to thing for quick productivity wins.
Shall we just say the market isn't what I would expect it to be - there is limited work and the rates offered are well below 2019 prices...
Anecdata from my B-in-L (steel erecting - works with the big theme parks such as Thorpe a lot, on infrastructure) - they are on their first slow down for years. Not sure why at the moment, but Thorpe etc are not going all guns blazing with new investment.
Public appetite for splashing the cash on entertainment seems weak at the moment - for my sins I'm now marketing director of a minor heritage railway, and virtually everyone in the industry is finding Christmas Santa train sales (which underpin a lot of heritage railway's business models) slow this year. We're only very slightly behind last year, but I've had to double our advertising spend to get there.
Two friends who both run businesses selling model trains (very different - one sells high end large scale model steam locos you can ride behind, the other buys bulk collections of oo gauge sort of stuff, splits it up and sells it secondhand) say the same thing - belts being tightened, sales down or requiring much more marketing activity. They blame the budget, and surrounding mood music.
My specialist engineering businesses really busy (order book is about 2-3 years long), but most of the sales reps I get in trying to sell me engineering gear are surprised we're busy and say most of their customers are depressingly quiet.
My mate's family run a scaffolding business. He says the big sites are still turning over, but this year they've seen a big drop in the homeowner sort of job, extensions, roof jobs and the like all being put off.
Why are the media continuing to go on about past comments made by Labour about Trump .
His own VP made similar statements !
As long as you arse lick Trump he’s quite happy to be forgiving.
The media are in awe of Trump. So are the commentariat. Charitably you could say they love a winner, no matter how despicable. Uncharitably you could say he’s done to them what he’s done to so many others: hypnotised them into a state of catatonic acceptance evolving into love.
Most of them on this side of the Atlantic retain some semblance of distancing and critique for now, but it won’t last. Watch as the right wing media in the UK slowly embraces MAGA. It’s not long till “Hurrah for the redcaps” articles start popping up in the Daily Mail.
The right wing press will now likely go into make a trade deal with the USA mode .
Everyone will be in that mode. Would you rather we start a trade war ? We're somewhat better placed than (say) Germany for that negotiation, but it's going to be painful. We simply have to accept that for the time being the US is, in trade terms, something of an adversary.
There’s very little to be gained from any realistic trade deal. We are an extremely weak negotiating partner facing a very protectionist, and very economically powerful country.
The most likely outcome would be the sort of one sided arrangement that would deliver to our farmers something rather less palatable than 20% inheritance tax on their estates.
20% inheritance tax on their estates is more damaging longer term to family farms than a deal which expands their exports to the US market even if it also leads to cheaper US imports here too.
As it is though we will likely end up with higher tariffs on US meat and vegetable imports in response to the US tariffs imposed on UK and other nation imports
Before assuming family farmers will pay 20% IHT, talk off the record to some busy rural lawyers and accountants. They won't. With a bit of luck Dyson and chancers like Clarkson will; but, as they say, don't bet the farm on that either.
Which is why it is nonsense - it imposes a cost on the everyone owning land, in order to try and stop/reduce a behaviour by one group (avoid IHT by using land).
The productivity of an entire sector has just taken a hit, for not much return.
The sane approach would have been to think - what is different between the behaviour of farmers passing the farm, intact, to their children and the tax planners. To me, that is obviously, that the tax planning types will want to get the money out. So, a more targeted solution would have been to look at *sales* of land.
That sound good, and yet, unintended consequences.
Do you really want to discourage landowners from selling land to people who want to build on it?
One of the arguments in favour of simply abolishing IHT is the distortions it creates by people desperately seeking to avoid it. But then, I suppose no IHT would also have a distorting effect in many respects too.
The chair of Octopus energy was interviewed this morning, and had very similar comments. And also noted that the $20bn subsidy for CCS was effectively a subsidy for the oil and gas industry (which it is), but not one which would be of much economic benefit to the UK (also correct).
So no-one on pb has thought it worth mentioning the horrendous scenes from Amsterdam?
Seems that the Maccabi fans behaved pretty badly both outside and inside the stadium. Two wrongs don't make a right, of course.
From the BBC live feed
"Some Maccabi fans 'looking for a fight', witness tells BBC published at 10:15 10:15
Victoria Park-Froud BBC News
I've spoken to a fan who went to the match last night, who reports seeing Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters on the Amsterdam metro "going up and down the carriages three or four times looking for a fight".
Conor Dalton tells me: "I felt worried. Everyone was going into the city so everyone knew what was going to happen."
He adds that he is "shocked by the portrayal" of the incident in the media, adding that the attacks were "completely provoked" and Palestinian flags were "torn down the night before".
As a reminder, authorities in the Netherlands have condemned antisemitic attacks on Israeli fans – with Amsterdam’s mayor reporting Israeli supporters were "actively sought out" for violence across the city."
"completely provoked"
I'd argue those words from an 'eye witness' somewhat devalues his comments.
I see Maccabi Tel Aviv's next game is in... Istanbul.
Kick them out of UEFA, make them play in the Africa or Middle East associations.
I cannot see any problems with that.
None whatsoever. I do, however, think there would be a slight change in the profile of their away fans plus their kit man would need assistance given the sudden increase in weight of all those bags.
Anecdata from my B-in-L (steel erecting - works with the big theme parks such as Thorpe a lot, on infrastructure) - they are on their first slow down for years. Not sure why at the moment, but Thorpe etc are not going all guns blazing with new investment.
Public appetite for splashing the cash on entertainment seems weak at the moment - for my sins I'm now marketing director of a minor heritage railway, and virtually everyone in the industry is finding Christmas Santa train sales (which underpin a lot of heritage railway's business models) slow this year. We're only very slightly behind last year, but I've had to double our advertising spend to get there.
Two friends who both run businesses selling model trains (very different - one sells high end large scale model steam locos you can ride behind, the other buys bulk collections of oo gauge sort of stuff, splits it up and sells it secondhand) say the same thing - belts being tightened, sales down or requiring much more marketing activity. They blame the budget, and surrounding mood music.
My specialist engineering businesses really busy (order book is about 2-3 years long), but most of the sales reps I get in trying to sell me engineering gear are surprised we're busy and say most of their customers are depressingly quiet.
My mate's family run a scaffolding business. He says the big sites are still turning over, but this year they've seen a big drop in the homeowner sort of job, extensions, roof jobs and the like all being put off.
Otoh we've just had some fire alarms and doors fitted under post-Grenfell fire regulations, and it was not cheap, and it was noticeable that follow-ups took place on random weekday evenings as the crew was busy elsewhere.
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Why are the media continuing to go on about past comments made by Labour about Trump .
His own VP made similar statements !
As long as you arse lick Trump he’s quite happy to be forgiving.
The media are in awe of Trump. So are the commentariat. Charitably you could say they love a winner, no matter how despicable. Uncharitably you could say he’s done to them what he’s done to so many others: hypnotised them into a state of catatonic acceptance evolving into love.
Most of them on this side of the Atlantic retain some semblance of distancing and critique for now, but it won’t last. Watch as the right wing media in the UK slowly embraces MAGA. It’s not long till “Hurrah for the redcaps” articles start popping up in the Daily Mail.
The right wing press will now likely go into make a trade deal with the USA mode .
Everyone will be in that mode. Would you rather we start a trade war ? We're somewhat better placed than (say) Germany for that negotiation, but it's going to be painful. We simply have to accept that for the time being the US is, in trade terms, something of an adversary.
There’s very little to be gained from any realistic trade deal. We are an extremely weak negotiating partner facing a very protectionist, and very economically powerful country.
The most likely outcome would be the sort of one sided arrangement that would deliver to our farmers something rather less palatable than 20% inheritance tax on their estates.
20% inheritance tax on their estates is more damaging longer term to family farms than a deal which expands their exports to the US market even if it also leads to cheaper US imports here too.
As it is though we will likely end up with higher tariffs on US meat and vegetable imports in response to the US tariffs imposed on UK and other nation imports
Before assuming family farmers will pay 20% IHT, talk off the record to some busy rural lawyers and accountants. They won't. With a bit of luck Dyson and chancers like Clarkson will; but, as they say, don't bet the farm on that either.
Which is why it is nonsense - it imposes a cost on the everyone owning land, in order to try and stop/reduce a behaviour by one group (avoid IHT by using land).
The productivity of an entire sector has just taken a hit, for not much return.
The sane approach would have been to think - what is different between the behaviour of farmers passing the farm, intact, to their children and the tax planners. To me, that is obviously, that the tax planning types will want to get the money out. So, a more targeted solution would have been to look at *sales* of land.
That sound good, and yet, unintended consequences.
Do you really want to discourage landowners from selling land to people who want to build on it?
One of the arguments in favour of simply abolishing IHT is the distortions it creates by people desperately seeking to avoid it. But then, I suppose no IHT would also have a distorting effect in many respects too.
There is absolutely no problem finding land to build houses on. Given the vast markup between agricultural land prices and land with planning permission…
UK businesses have both hands tied behind their backs. Will only get worse following the budget. No idea why any business would locate in the UK now.
The Government's answer will no doubt be to cover the landscape with wind turbines. How much have they been generating the past week with all the still air?
Analysis summary is that Dem vote in swing states slightly down but deciding factor was large increase in Trump vote. Trends in other states differed but not relevant to EC result.
So the question is, how did the GOP mobilise their vote in the swing states so effectively when reporting was that they had a poor ground operation.
It's not mobilisation so much as motivation. Trump motivated the voters and Harris didn't. You can lay on as many buses as you want, have thousands of activists out knocking on doors but if the voter isn't motivated to vote for your candidate it's all irrelevant. GOTV ground campaigns help in the margin, they can't overcome a poor candidate.
You can see that in the past voting numbers - Biden got a lot more people to vote Democrat, when he won.
Biden's vote, though, was a complete historical outlier, for either Democratic or Republican candidates this century.
So time to do it again then All trends are outliers in the beginning.
Biden won because of his working class cred, derived from a hardscrabble background on Scranton PA. Kamala couldn't convince the working class she was on their side and she lost. They need somebody with working class cred...or, more realistically, who can fake it enough (Clinton was a Rhodes Scholar who could kid people he was a redneck). If the Dems can recreate that approach, they're in.
So no-one on pb has thought it worth mentioning the horrendous scenes from Amsterdam?
Seems that the Maccabi fans behaved pretty badly both outside and inside the stadium. Two wrongs don't make a right, of course.
From the BBC live feed
"Some Maccabi fans 'looking for a fight', witness tells BBC published at 10:15 10:15
Victoria Park-Froud BBC News
I've spoken to a fan who went to the match last night, who reports seeing Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters on the Amsterdam metro "going up and down the carriages three or four times looking for a fight".
Conor Dalton tells me: "I felt worried. Everyone was going into the city so everyone knew what was going to happen."
He adds that he is "shocked by the portrayal" of the incident in the media, adding that the attacks were "completely provoked" and Palestinian flags were "torn down the night before".
As a reminder, authorities in the Netherlands have condemned antisemitic attacks on Israeli fans – with Amsterdam’s mayor reporting Israeli supporters were "actively sought out" for violence across the city."
A flag torn down, some songs sung, some people looking for a fight on a train (in their words) but not actually fighting (maybe just looking for the toilet who knows) VS people stabbed, kicked unconscious, thrown in rivers, possibly taken hostage, hotels stormed, men run over by cars, random Ukrainian refugees made to shout free Palestine to save their lives.
People are always amazed that Farage and Wilders and Trump and others become popular. It's not just the vile actions, it's the attempts at justification like this, promoted by the BBC, that turn people.
Anecdata from my B-in-L (steel erecting - works with the big theme parks such as Thorpe a lot, on infrastructure) - they are on their first slow down for years. Not sure why at the moment, but Thorpe etc are not going all guns blazing with new investment.
Public appetite for splashing the cash on entertainment seems weak at the moment - for my sins I'm now marketing director of a minor heritage railway, and virtually everyone in the industry is finding Christmas Santa train sales (which underpin a lot of heritage railway's business models) slow this year. We're only very slightly behind last year, but I've had to double our advertising spend to get there.
Two friends who both run businesses selling model trains (very different - one sells high end large scale model steam locos you can ride behind, the other buys bulk collections of oo gauge sort of stuff, splits it up and sells it secondhand) say the same thing - belts being tightened, sales down or requiring much more marketing activity. They blame the budget, and surrounding mood music.
My specialist engineering businesses really busy (order book is about 2-3 years long), but most of the sales reps I get in trying to sell me engineering gear are surprised we're busy and say most of their customers are depressingly quiet.
The holiday rental market here in Devon is very quiet too.
Some places have reportedly only had three bookings all year.
It seems to me that despite saying "democracy is on the line" most Americans either didn't believe that statement, or didn't care.
I really think at this point the odds of Labour losing in 2029 are underpriced.
Things that should matter, often don't. As Dominic Sandbrook of TRiH said on TRiP in explaining Trump's victory the other day, normal people do not follow politics. Viewcode posted the transcript and there is a 2-minute video. https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5022503#Comment_5022503
Analysis summary is that Dem vote in swing states slightly down but deciding factor was large increase in Trump vote. Trends in other states differed but not relevant to EC result.
So the question is, how did the GOP mobilise their vote in the swing states so effectively when reporting was that they had a poor ground operation.
It's not mobilisation so much as motivation. Trump motivated the voters and Harris didn't. You can lay on as many buses as you want, have thousands of activists out knocking on doors but if the voter isn't motivated to vote for your candidate it's all irrelevant. GOTV ground campaigns help in the margin, they can't overcome a poor candidate.
You can see that in the past voting numbers - Biden got a lot more people to vote Democrat, when he won.
Biden's vote, though, was a complete historical outlier, for either Democratic or Republican candidates this century.
So time to do it again then All trends are outliers in the beginning.
Biden won because of his working class cred, derived from a hardscrabble background on Scranton PA. Kamala couldn't convince the working class she was on their side and she lost. They need somebody with working class cred...or, more realistically, who can fake it enough (Clinton was a Rhodes Scholar who could kid people he was a redneck). If the Dems can recreate that approach, they're in.
If it looks close yes. If inflation is even higher in 2028 due to Trump's tariffs and no rise in manufacturing jobs either they will likely be back in regardless anyway
Analysis summary is that Dem vote in swing states slightly down but deciding factor was large increase in Trump vote. Trends in other states differed but not relevant to EC result.
So the question is, how did the GOP mobilise their vote in the swing states so effectively when reporting was that they had a poor ground operation.
It's not mobilisation so much as motivation. Trump motivated the voters and Harris didn't. You can lay on as many buses as you want, have thousands of activists out knocking on doors but if the voter isn't motivated to vote for your candidate it's all irrelevant. GOTV ground campaigns help in the margin, they can't overcome a poor candidate.
You can see that in the past voting numbers - Biden got a lot more people to vote Democrat, when he won.
Biden's vote, though, was a complete historical outlier, for either Democratic or Republican candidates this century.
So time to do it again then All trends are outliers in the beginning.
Biden won because of his working class cred, derived from a hardscrabble background on Scranton PA. Kamala couldn't convince the working class she was on their side and she lost. They need somebody with working class cred...or, more realistically, who can fake it enough (Clinton was a Rhodes Scholar who could kid people he was a redneck). If the Dems can recreate that approach, they're in.
The thing that was bizarre, was that Biden moved towards a protectionist, state pump priming economic policy, deliberately to court such voters.
Harris, in her campaign, seemed to refuse to acknowledge this. I would have been running ads about the jobs created, chip making coming back to America etc etc.
Clinton was a Rhodes Scholar, but one who came from a quite modest background.
I think people are over-thinking this election. Trump lost in 2020 because of his inadequate response to COVID. Biden/Harris lost in 2024 because of the inflation caused by the government stimulus to the COVID-hit economy.
If that is the reason we should forecast the Republicans' worst result since 1936 in 2028 given what Trump's proposing to unleash.
If of course there is an election in 2028.
There will be and Trump won't be a candidate.
Harris has lost now, you can drop the paranoia...
And you can drop the insouciance. It's not paranoid to be concerned about what Trump might do towards weakening US democracy.
Well since the Dems have shown him how to do Lawfare maybe that wasnt such a good move
I think people are over-thinking this election. Trump lost in 2020 because of his inadequate response to COVID. Biden/Harris lost in 2024 because of the inflation caused by the government stimulus to the COVID-hit economy.
If that is the reason we should forecast the Republicans' worst result since 1936 in 2028 given what Trump's proposing to unleash.
If of course there is an election in 2028.
There will be and Trump won't be a candidate.
Harris has lost now, you can drop the paranoia...
And you can drop the insouciance. It's not paranoid to be concerned about what Trump might do towards weakening US democracy.
Well since the Dems have shown him how to do Lawfare maybe that wasnt such a good move
Are you seriously saying that Trump should not have been prosecuted? That he should just be above the law?
I think it is appalling that a President can't be prosecuted. America prides itself on not being a monarchy and that all are equal under the law. It appears that is not true for whoever is president though (and that is regardless of which party they belong to).
Impeachment is not the answer as it is political.
In times gone by a president would be embarrassed into standing down. No longer so.
I also think the pardon system is an abuse of power (again regardless of who is president). If it is to exist it should be in the hands of a non-political body.
I think that last paragraph is a vast understatement.
The Presidential pardon system is institutionalised corruption, which gives criminals and gangsters a viable route to heavily influence the Presidency - by giving the President an easy route to reward them for their machinations, which is within the law and threatens no consequences for the corrupt President.
Analysis summary is that Dem vote in swing states slightly down but deciding factor was large increase in Trump vote. Trends in other states differed but not relevant to EC result.
So the question is, how did the GOP mobilise their vote in the swing states so effectively when reporting was that they had a poor ground operation.
It's not mobilisation so much as motivation. Trump motivated the voters and Harris didn't. You can lay on as many buses as you want, have thousands of activists out knocking on doors but if the voter isn't motivated to vote for your candidate it's all irrelevant. GOTV ground campaigns help in the margin, they can't overcome a poor candidate.
You can see that in the past voting numbers - Biden got a lot more people to vote Democrat, when he won.
Biden's vote, though, was a complete historical outlier, for either Democratic or Republican candidates this century.
So time to do it again then All trends are outliers in the beginning.
Biden won because of his working class cred, derived from a hardscrabble background on Scranton PA. Kamala couldn't convince the working class she was on their side and she lost. They need somebody with working class cred...or, more realistically, who can fake it enough (Clinton was a Rhodes Scholar who could kid people he was a redneck). If the Dems can recreate that approach, they're in.
Turns out that's all nonsense. These guys called the election - every state correctly - back in October (and got the previous one right, too).
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Several thousand years of premeditation. On both sides.
The single most intelligent step the EU and UK can take for European democracy at this rather dark time is to comprehend that the UK left the EU over what was, in the great scheme of things, a little local difficulty, namely the power to derogate from freedom of movement.
A joint statement (or one just from the EU) saying that EU/single market/customs union/EEA/EFTA can be discussed om the basis of such a derogation would transform the current political climate. Once Europe starts getting serious about military matters it needs the UK, and we need them.
So it's the Four Freedoms for everyone else and the Three Freedoms for us or are we going to allow the EU countries to pick and choose which Freedoms they want as well?
The four Freedoms:
Free movement of Goods Free movement of Capital Freedom to establish and provide Services Free movement of Labour
I suspect the intention of Freedom of Labour was to allow people to move freely round Europe but working and studying - the notion of moving from X to Y "to look for work" is where it's come unstuck as naturally people from poorer areas have gone to the richer areas or simply followed the money as people have for centuries.
The alternative would be a bureaucracy of work permits or visas whereby you could only enter Y from X if you had a confirmed job offer and confirmed accommodation in Y. That's how many other countries operate and it works for them but we (or rather Europe) didn't want the complications of such a system - better to let people freely from X to Y, A, B, C or wherever just as they could within X itself.
The free movement of labour allowed labour shortages to be filled with greater flexibility than visa schemes. With visa schemes, once you've got a visa you hold on to it because you might not get it again. It encourages moving for work to become moving forever. With free movement of labour in the EU, it's easy to come and go. You move for a job, you move back, maybe you move somewhere else.
Labour pushing hard on these pay deals as they promised:
Ross Lydall @RossLydall Revealed: 'ground-breaking' deal offered by @TfL to Tube drivers to get them to call off strikes: 🔴 Four-day week 🔴4.5% pay rise 🔴Paid meal breaks 🔴2.5 hours a week less work 🔴 35-hour working week 🔴Extra week's paid paternity leave Full story coming up @EveningStandard
I don't want to single anyone out here, but it's important to realise that a sizeable share of people involved in public policy think you need some kind of formal expertise to judge whether £100m is an appropriate price to pay to protect a colony of bats from a train line."
The chair of Octopus energy was interviewed this morning, and had very similar comments. And also noted that the $20bn subsidy for CCS was effectively a subsidy for the oil and gas industry (which it is), but not one which would be of much economic benefit to the UK (also correct).
Got a link to the interview? Or generally a good analysis on carbon capture storage?
Labour pushing hard on these pay deals as they promised:
Ross Lydall @RossLydall Revealed: 'ground-breaking' deal offered by @TfL to Tube drivers to get them to call off strikes: 🔴 Four-day week 🔴4.5% pay rise 🔴Paid meal breaks 🔴2.5 hours a week less work 🔴 35-hour working week 🔴Extra week's paid paternity leave Full story coming up @EveningStandard
Just had that Korean bbq that @Nigelb has been insisting I try!
He’s right. It’s much better in Korea than outside. Properly delicious if not as as good as the equivalent in Japan. Not as refined and delicate
This is true of all Korea as I’ve said. It is the unrefined Japan. It is the coca leaf or maybe the mambe coca powder to japan’s grade 1 Peruvian crystal flake
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Several thousand years of premeditation. On both sides.
I don't give a shit.
There is no excuse for violence, provoked or otherwise.
Let us turn this around. Can you imagine a situation where some anti western islamists were beaten up by far right thugs. Would many people be focusing on the provocation by the jeering islamists?
I don't want to single anyone out here, but it's important to realise that a sizeable share of people involved in public policy think you need some kind of formal expertise to judge whether £100m is an appropriate price to pay to protect a colony of bats from a train line."
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Several thousand years of premeditation. On both sides.
I think it's a canard to talk of "several thousand years" of Arab/Jewish conflict. Historically, there was more Christian anti-Semitism. The Arab-Jewish conflicts we are familiar with today only really go back to the late 19th century.
UK businesses have both hands tied behind their backs. Will only get worse following the budget. No idea why any business would locate in the UK now.
Could you explain how an average figure from 2023 under a previous Government can be characterised as "is" in November 2024?
Do you have data from 2024 Q3?
You want me to explain how UK average electric costs for businesses in 2023 impacts businesses and their likelihood to locate in the UK now? Do you have any data that tells me that the UK has dramatically turned this around in 2024? Regardless of who is in government.
Labour pushing hard on these pay deals as they promised:
Ross Lydall @RossLydall Revealed: 'ground-breaking' deal offered by @TfL to Tube drivers to get them to call off strikes: 🔴 Four-day week 🔴4.5% pay rise 🔴Paid meal breaks 🔴2.5 hours a week less work 🔴 35-hour working week 🔴Extra week's paid paternity leave Full story coming up @EveningStandard
Knowing how Starmer gets the politics bit horribly wrong, he will likely hold firm against the nurses, to make an example of them.
George Parker @GeorgeWParker · 16m New - A striking addition to the Starmer operation. Jonathan Powell, Blair's chief of staff, backroom architect of Good Friday agreement, back in No10 as national security adviser
The chair of Octopus energy was interviewed this morning, and had very similar comments. And also noted that the $20bn subsidy for CCS was effectively a subsidy for the oil and gas industry (which it is), but not one which would be of much economic benefit to the UK (also correct).
Got a link to the interview? Or generally a good analysis on carbon capture storage?
What will be fun, is when solar starts biting into prices, significantly.
There is an ingrained belief in certain quarters that consumption needs to be constrained by higher prices.
Analysis summary is that Dem vote in swing states slightly down but deciding factor was large increase in Trump vote. Trends in other states differed but not relevant to EC result.
So the question is, how did the GOP mobilise their vote in the swing states so effectively when reporting was that they had a poor ground operation.
It's not mobilisation so much as motivation. Trump motivated the voters and Harris didn't. You can lay on as many buses as you want, have thousands of activists out knocking on doors but if the voter isn't motivated to vote for your candidate it's all irrelevant. GOTV ground campaigns help in the margin, they can't overcome a poor candidate.
You can see that in the past voting numbers - Biden got a lot more people to vote Democrat, when he won.
Biden's vote, though, was a complete historical outlier, for either Democratic or Republican candidates this century.
So time to do it again then All trends are outliers in the beginning.
Biden won because of his working class cred, derived from a hardscrabble background on Scranton PA. Kamala couldn't convince the working class she was on their side and she lost. They need somebody with working class cred...or, more realistically, who can fake it enough (Clinton was a Rhodes Scholar who could kid people he was a redneck). If the Dems can recreate that approach, they're in.
Turns out that's all nonsense. These guys called the election - every state correctly - back in October (and got the previous one right, too).
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Several thousand years of premeditation. On both sides.
I think it's a canard to talk of "several thousand years" of Arab/Jewish conflict. Historically, there was more Christian anti-Semitism. The Arab-Jewish conflicts we are familiar with today only really go back to the late 19th century.
Ffs. There is antisemitism in the Koran and the hadiths
Of course there are disturbing statements in every ancient holy book, trouble is an awful lot of conservative Muslims take their holy writ very literally indeed
Analysis summary is that Dem vote in swing states slightly down but deciding factor was large increase in Trump vote. Trends in other states differed but not relevant to EC result.
So the question is, how did the GOP mobilise their vote in the swing states so effectively when reporting was that they had a poor ground operation.
It's not mobilisation so much as motivation. Trump motivated the voters and Harris didn't. You can lay on as many buses as you want, have thousands of activists out knocking on doors but if the voter isn't motivated to vote for your candidate it's all irrelevant. GOTV ground campaigns help in the margin, they can't overcome a poor candidate.
You can see that in the past voting numbers - Biden got a lot more people to vote Democrat, when he won.
Biden's vote, though, was a complete historical outlier, for either Democratic or Republican candidates this century.
So time to do it again then All trends are outliers in the beginning.
Biden won because of his working class cred, derived from a hardscrabble background on Scranton PA. Kamala couldn't convince the working class she was on their side and she lost. They need somebody with working class cred...or, more realistically, who can fake it enough (Clinton was a Rhodes Scholar who could kid people he was a redneck). If the Dems can recreate that approach, they're in.
Turns out that's all nonsense. These guys called the election - every state correctly - back in October (and got the previous one right, too).
It's galling to those of us who enjoy thinking about it, and it must be infuriating to those who make a living from it, but most arguments make very little difference.
If I were employing people in politics, my first instruction to them would be to spend a week where the *only* news consumption they have is the bulletins on music radio stations and BBC push notifications. Think that would get you to par.
People feel better off, the government gains support. People feel worse off, the government loses support. And unless they cheat, that's more out of the government's hands than in it. Global factors and the backwash of decisions taken decades ago are more important.
(Modern America has the additional problem that the people keeping you up to date in 90 seconds are largely partisan fruitloops, but sovereign consumers seem to prefer it that way.)
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Several thousand years of premeditation. On both sides.
I don't give a shit.
There is no excuse for violence, provoked or otherwise.
Let us turn this around. Can you imagine a situation where some anti western islamists were beaten up by far right thugs. Would many people be focusing on the provocation by the jeering islamists?
Sadly, violence is a Middle East default setting, whether it is massacring a music festival or levelling a tower block to get one "target". There is no excuse for violence, other than "it is what the other lot has always done to us". I have idea how you break out of that cycle, but there is no evidence of anyone trying in recent years.
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Several thousand years of premeditation. On both sides.
I don't give a shit.
There is no excuse for violence, provoked or otherwise.
Let us turn this around. Can you imagine a situation where some anti western islamists were beaten up by far right thugs. Would many people be focusing on the provocation by the jeering islamists?
There is one place that all this ends. And it is extremely ugly. Trump is just the start
Only three of yesterday's byelection results have been reported overnight: Wyre, Marsh Mill: RUK gain from C Blackpool, Bispham: Lab gain from C Bracknell, Great Hollands: Lab hold 6 seats to declare today, Previews at andrewspreviews.substack.com
Still to come, five in Scotland and a Green defence in Herefordshire.
It looks like Reform will do very well in Blackpool and its environs in 2025.
The Bispham result was a bit odd. Labour’s vote share dropped sharply, but they squeezed a win, because the right wing vote was split between Conservatives, Reform, and an independent Conservative.
Yes far from Badenoch squeezing the Reform vote it looks like Farage's party is stronger than ever against her Tories and Starmer Labour on last night's local by election results
I wonder if she might be more likely to do a deal with Farage than other potential Tory leaders.
Only three of yesterday's byelection results have been reported overnight: Wyre, Marsh Mill: RUK gain from C Blackpool, Bispham: Lab gain from C Bracknell, Great Hollands: Lab hold 6 seats to declare today, Previews at andrewspreviews.substack.com
The chair of Octopus energy was interviewed this morning, and had very similar comments. And also noted that the $20bn subsidy for CCS was effectively a subsidy for the oil and gas industry (which it is), but not one which would be of much economic benefit to the UK (also correct).
Got a link to the interview? Or generally a good analysis on carbon capture storage?
I'm very bearish on CCS, and have been for many, many years. In certain small circumstances it makes sense; in most cases, it's fairly insane.
So let's look at it another way. This is the *fourth* major scheme announced in the UK. Countless millions have been thrown at schemes that have delivered next-to nothing.
So a simple question is this: why, this time, will it be different? What has changed to make the previous schemes, unviable for a number of reasons, viable? Why do so many other countries have problems with their schemes?
UK businesses have both hands tied behind their backs. Will only get worse following the budget. No idea why any business would locate in the UK now.
Could you explain how an average figure from 2023 under a previous Government can be characterised as "is" in November 2024?
Do you have data from 2024 Q3?
You want me to explain how UK average electric costs for businesses in 2023 impacts businesses and their likelihood to locate in the UK now? Do you have any data that tells me that the UK has dramatically turned this around in 2024? Regardless of who is in government.
What is strange here, is that energy prices as a major input to the state of the economy has been a known, discussed link for *generations”.
UK businesses have both hands tied behind their backs. Will only get worse following the budget. No idea why any business would locate in the UK now.
Could you explain how an average figure from 2023 under a previous Government can be characterised as "is" in November 2024?
Do you have data from 2024 Q3?
You want me to explain how UK average electric costs for businesses in 2023 impacts businesses and their likelihood to locate in the UK now? Do you have any data that tells me that the UK has dramatically turned this around in 2024? Regardless of who is in government.
You made an assertion for Nov 2024 based on data that is 18 months old, in a rapidly changing environment.
I'm asking if you have any relevant data that supports your assertion.
George Parker @GeorgeWParker · 16m New - A striking addition to the Starmer operation. Jonathan Powell, Blair's chief of staff, backroom architect of Good Friday agreement, back in No10 as national security adviser
UK businesses have both hands tied behind their backs. Will only get worse following the budget. No idea why any business would locate in the UK now.
Could you explain how an average figure from 2023 under a previous Government can be characterised as "is" in November 2024?
Do you have data from 2024 Q3?
You want me to explain how UK average electric costs for businesses in 2023 impacts businesses and their likelihood to locate in the UK now? Do you have any data that tells me that the UK has dramatically turned this around in 2024? Regardless of who is in government.
You made an assertion for Nov 2024 based on data that is 18 months old, in a rapidly changing environment.
I'm asking if you have any relevant data that supports your assertion.
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Several thousand years of premeditation. On both sides.
I don't give a shit.
There is no excuse for violence, provoked or otherwise.
Let us turn this around. Can you imagine a situation where some anti western islamists were beaten up by far right thugs. Would many people be focusing on the provocation by the jeering islamists?
Sadly, violence is a Middle East default setting, whether it is massacring a music festival or levelling a tower block to get one "target". There is no excuse for violence, other than "it is what the other lot has always done to us". I have idea how you break out of that cycle, but there is no evidence of anyone trying in recent years.
I don't think there is any inevitability about this. There are and have been periods of peace and of conflict in many different parts of the world. That should give us hope for the possibility of change. The Arab-Israeli situation was looking better at times in the late 1980s and in the 1990s. Other long-standing conflicts elsewhere in the world have moved towards peace (e.g., Northern Ireland, Basque country, Cyprus).
How you break out of the cycle is difficult, but it requires wanting to achieve peace, acknowledging the concerns of different communities, finding governance structures that satisfy those concerns.
Ballot Box Scotland @BallotBoxScot Fraserburgh and District (Aberdeenshire) by-election, first preferences:
Conservative: 1145 (36.3%, +3.9) SNP: 895 (28.4%, +8.4) Reform UK: 817 (25.9%, new) Lib Dem: 222 (7%, +2.2) Family: 71 (2.3%, +1.3) (Inds won 32.1%, 3.9%, Alba 5.8% in 2022)
Conservative elected stage TBC.
Surprised at how well Reform are doing across Scotland. Interesting second preferences: LD voters - 35 to Reform, 51 to SNP, 67 to Con Reform voters - 147 to SNP, 331 to Con
I don't want to single anyone out here, but it's important to realise that a sizeable share of people involved in public policy think you need some kind of formal expertise to judge whether £100m is an appropriate price to pay to protect a colony of bats from a train line."
Interesting how transfers are more complicated than you would expect, including lots of Reform UK->SNP transfers.
Con gain from SNP.
As the Election Maps UK Twitter account reminds us, you need to interpret with care by-election results for 1 seat compared to prior all-up elections under STV. The Conservatives topped the poll last time, so "gaining" the seat isn't that impressive.
UK businesses have both hands tied behind their backs. Will only get worse following the budget. No idea why any business would locate in the UK now.
Could you explain how an average figure from 2023 under a previous Government can be characterised as "is" in November 2024?
Do you have data from 2024 Q3?
You want me to explain how UK average electric costs for businesses in 2023 impacts businesses and their likelihood to locate in the UK now? Do you have any data that tells me that the UK has dramatically turned this around in 2024? Regardless of who is in government.
What is strange here, is that energy prices as a major input to the state of the economy has been a known, discussed link for *generations”.
Though not, it seems, by the generators.
(Mostly I popped up to do that short "gag". But seriously, folks, we went all-in on gas, because it was abundant and cheap. Which it was, until the moment that it wasn't. The interesting thing is what industry does when they are told "you can have loads of electricity, in fact we'll pay you to take it off our hands, but only at certain times." Basically when those freaky hours that energy companies have started running become more routine.)
Interesting how transfers are more complicated than you would expect, including lots of Reform UK->SNP transfers.
Con gain from SNP.
As the Election Maps UK Twitter account reminds us, you need to interpret with care by-election results for 1 seat compared to prior all-up elections under STV. The Conservatives topped the poll last time, so "gaining" the seat isn't that impressive.
Quite true. Although the Conservative vote share went up in both of the Scottish results so far in, despite Reform standing for the first time. That doesn't really happen in England often.
Surprisingly good editorial from the Spectator: not as sarcastic and oozing as usual, more measured. The author is unnamed: is this output from the new editorial team, and if so is it Gove?
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Several thousand years of premeditation. On both sides.
I don't give a shit.
There is no excuse for violence, provoked or otherwise.
Let us turn this around. Can you imagine a situation where some anti western islamists were beaten up by far right thugs. Would many people be focusing on the provocation by the jeering islamists?
Sadly, violence is a Middle East default setting, whether it is massacring a music festival or levelling a tower block to get one "target". There is no excuse for violence, other than "it is what the other lot has always done to us". I have idea how you break out of that cycle, but there is no evidence of anyone trying in recent years.
I don't think there is any inevitability about this. There are and have been periods of peace and of conflict in many different parts of the world. That should give us hope for the possibility of change. The Arab-Israeli situation was looking better at times in the late 1980s and in the 1990s. Other long-standing conflicts elsewhere in the world have moved towards peace (e.g., Northern Ireland, Basque country, Cyprus).
How you break out of the cycle is difficult, but it requires wanting to achieve peace, acknowledging the concerns of different communities, finding governance structures that satisfy those concerns.
You need to find at least one extraordinary leader with the other at least open to persuasion in power at the same time and both strong enough to keep their coalitions together to start the process. Then a load of luck.
Yes its all possible, but you probably get a chance once a generation or so, and the chances each time are odds against. I wish it was not so, but thats how I see it.
Still seeing "Harris couldn't turn out millions of Biden voters," and the count in swing states says that's not true.
In Wisconsin, Harris got 37k more votes than Biden. The most votes of any Dem candidate since Obama in 2008.
She lost bc Trump added 77k more votes since 2020.
She is very close to Biden 2020 raw vote in MI and PA. Had Trump just recreated his 2020 vote, he would have lost MI and PA would be too close to call still. But he added 151k votes in MI, 108k in PA.
What about Georgia? Biden got 2.47m votes in 2020, Harris got 2.54m votes this week. Trump won because he added 200k votes.
NC? Harris outran Biden by 4k votes. Wouldn't even have been enough to win in 2020 ... but Trump added 120k votes.
Ballot Box Scotland @BallotBoxScot Fraserburgh and District (Aberdeenshire) by-election, first preferences:
Conservative: 1145 (36.3%, +3.9) SNP: 895 (28.4%, +8.4) Reform UK: 817 (25.9%, new) Lib Dem: 222 (7%, +2.2) Family: 71 (2.3%, +1.3) (Inds won 32.1%, 3.9%, Alba 5.8% in 2022)
Conservative elected stage TBC.
Surprised at how well Reform are doing across Scotland. Interesting second preferences: LD voters - 35 to Reform, 51 to SNP, 67 to Con Reform voters - 147 to SNP, 331 to Con
Scotland has weirdly high Trump support, so the Reform figures aren't that surprising.
In some respects we are a much more divided country than England, with double the proportion of people living in flats (tenements) in highly dense cities, yet an extensive rural population. We don't do suburbia and towns in the same way England does.
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Several thousand years of premeditation. On both sides.
I think it's a canard to talk of "several thousand years" of Arab/Jewish conflict. Historically, there was more Christian anti-Semitism. The Arab-Jewish conflicts we are familiar with today only really go back to the late 19th century.
Hmmm. Yes and no. Yes, as in there was a hideous amount of anti-Jewish sentiment, actions and laws in Christian Europe before (say) 1800. And progress towards improving life for Jews in Europe was very slow after that. But progress was made.
But vast areas of what is now the Middle East were under Ottoman control. It can certainly be argued that Jews under Ottoman rule had it better than they did in Europe, at times. In the late 1400s the empire actually encouraged immigration from Jews who had been expelled from countries in Europe.
But the rights of Christians and Jews in the empire were repressed, and this repression of Jews increased as the Ottoman Empire started falling. The Ottoman Empire was anti-Semitic; just not as much as many countries in Europe. At times.
The situation reversed over the last two hundred years; conditions for Jews in most of Europe (1930s aside) *generally* improved. In the Middle East over the same period, their conditions got worse, especially as the Ottoman Empire started to disintegrate.
(How much of the decreasing openness of the Ottoman Empire to non-Muslims and foreigners was a symptom of the empire's fall, and how much a cause, is an interesting question.)
Still seeing "Harris couldn't turn out millions of Biden voters," and the count in swing states says that's not true.
In Wisconsin, Harris got 37k more votes than Biden. The most votes of any Dem candidate since Obama in 2008.
She lost bc Trump added 77k more votes since 2020.
She is very close to Biden 2020 raw vote in MI and PA. Had Trump just recreated his 2020 vote, he would have lost MI and PA would be too close to call still. But he added 151k votes in MI, 108k in PA.
What about Georgia? Biden got 2.47m votes in 2020, Harris got 2.54m votes this week. Trump won because he added 200k votes.
NC? Harris outran Biden by 4k votes. Wouldn't even have been enough to win in 2020 ... but Trump added 120k votes.
A lot of people have interpreted the relative outperformance of Democratic Senators over Kamala Harris as evidence of her weakness and unpopularity as a politician.
But as I've argued before, what if it's evidence of Trump's unique popularity?
I don't want to single anyone out here, but it's important to realise that a sizeable share of people involved in public policy think you need some kind of formal expertise to judge whether £100m is an appropriate price to pay to protect a colony of bats from a train line."
I don't want to single anyone out here, but it's important to realise that a sizeable share of people involved in public policy think you need some kind of formal expertise to judge whether £100m is an appropriate price to pay to protect a colony of bats from a train line."
Only three of yesterday's byelection results have been reported overnight: Wyre, Marsh Mill: RUK gain from C Blackpool, Bispham: Lab gain from C Bracknell, Great Hollands: Lab hold 6 seats to declare today, Previews at andrewspreviews.substack.com
Still to come, five in Scotland and a Green defence in Herefordshire.
It looks like Reform will do very well in Blackpool and its environs in 2025.
The Bispham result was a bit odd. Labour’s vote share dropped sharply, but they squeezed a win, because the right wing vote was split between Conservatives, Reform, and an independent Conservative.
Yes far from Badenoch squeezing the Reform vote it looks like Farage's party is stronger than ever against her Tories and Starmer Labour on last night's local by election results
I wonder if she might be more likely to do a deal with Farage than other potential Tory leaders.
Less likely than Jenrick would have been. Though if the numbers were there in a hung parliament she would have no choice if Tories + Reform +DUP/TUV had more seats than Labour + LDs + SNP +PC+Greens+SDLP+Alliance
I don't want to single anyone out here, but it's important to realise that a sizeable share of people involved in public policy think you need some kind of formal expertise to judge whether £100m is an appropriate price to pay to protect a colony of bats from a train line."
Still seeing "Harris couldn't turn out millions of Biden voters," and the count in swing states says that's not true.
In Wisconsin, Harris got 37k more votes than Biden. The most votes of any Dem candidate since Obama in 2008.
She lost bc Trump added 77k more votes since 2020.
She is very close to Biden 2020 raw vote in MI and PA. Had Trump just recreated his 2020 vote, he would have lost MI and PA would be too close to call still. But he added 151k votes in MI, 108k in PA.
What about Georgia? Biden got 2.47m votes in 2020, Harris got 2.54m votes this week. Trump won because he added 200k votes.
NC? Harris outran Biden by 4k votes. Wouldn't even have been enough to win in 2020 ... but Trump added 120k votes.
I suspect a few people owe you an apology after the stick you got over the last few weeks with the polls you posted. Some quite pointed comments.
Unlike the Blackpool result, STV means that Reform votes largely transfer to the Conservatives. I expect the Conservatives will make a third gain n Aberdeenshire, today.
Interesting how transfers are more complicated than you would expect, including lots of Reform UK->SNP transfers.
Con gain from SNP.
As the Election Maps UK Twitter account reminds us, you need to interpret with care by-election results for 1 seat compared to prior all-up elections under STV. The Conservatives topped the poll last time, so "gaining" the seat isn't that impressive.
Quite true. Although the Conservative vote share went up in both of the Scottish results so far in, despite Reform standing for the first time. That doesn't really happen in England often.
Indeed, although there were also several parties/independents not standing compared to the previous election too.
Currently (This WILL change as late votes come in) Trump leads by 3.05% nationally and 1.98% in PA. So there's a 1.07% bias toward Harris in the college at the moment. This should trend back to zero and maybe a bias to Trump as slow counting west coast rolls in.
I don't want to single anyone out here, but it's important to realise that a sizeable share of people involved in public policy think you need some kind of formal expertise to judge whether £100m is an appropriate price to pay to protect a colony of bats from a train line."
The last government sure did waste a lot of money. What shall we name the bat tunnel when it's opened?
The George Osborne Austerity Bat Tunnel? The Boris Johnson Levelling-Up Bat Tunnel?
This kind of pricing is standard in public (and semi public) projects.
A breakdown of the cost will reveal a pyramid of sub-contraction and process.
It is quite possible the actual amount spent on fabrication and installation will be a single digit percentage of the £100 million.
I don't know. It's possible that it genuinely would be expensive to build a mesh tunnel/arch that wouldn't be shaken to pieces by high-speed trains passing through it.
It's just completely absurd as an intervention to protect biodiversity.
Surprisingly good editorial from the Spectator: not as sarcastic and oozing as usual, more measured. The author is unnamed: is this output from the new editorial team, and if so is it Gove?
All a bit pompous to me - the Tory in-house journal piously claiming it knows more about the concerns of the masses than the rest of us just after the Tories have just been annihilated at the polls.
Only three of yesterday's byelection results have been reported overnight: Wyre, Marsh Mill: RUK gain from C Blackpool, Bispham: Lab gain from C Bracknell, Great Hollands: Lab hold 6 seats to declare today, Previews at andrewspreviews.substack.com
Still to come, five in Scotland and a Green defence in Herefordshire.
It looks like Reform will do very well in Blackpool and its environs in 2025.
The Bispham result was a bit odd. Labour’s vote share dropped sharply, but they squeezed a win, because the right wing vote was split between Conservatives, Reform, and an independent Conservative.
Yes far from Badenoch squeezing the Reform vote it looks like Farage's party is stronger than ever against her Tories and Starmer Labour on last night's local by election results
I wonder if she might be more likely to do a deal with Farage than other potential Tory leaders.
Less likely than Jenrick would have been. Though if the numbers were there in a hung parliament she would have no choice if Tories + Reform +DUP/TUV had more seats than Labour + LDs + SNP +PC+Greens+SDLP+Alliance
I don't think Farage will do a deal with the Tories. His aim is to destroy and replace them. I think he will succeed by 2028. Look at all yesterday by election results for a taster.
Surprisingly good editorial from the Spectator: not as sarcastic and oozing as usual, more measured. The author is unnamed: is this output from the new editorial team, and if so is it Gove?
I’ve not read the whole thing, but it talks about the Democrats assuming this or that. I don’t think that’s true. They may have hoped for this or that’s but they were out there fighting for every vote. It’s another article that seems to assume that when one party wins a 2-horse race, that means everything one side did was a mistake and everything the other side did was political genius.
Comments
What will Trump's second term look like? On today's episode of Battle Lines we discuss Donald Trump's re-election and its implications for both the US and the wider world. 45 minutes.
Contributors
Roland Oliphant (Host)
Robert Mendick (Chief Reporter)
Edward Arnold (Senior Research Fellow at RUSI)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnAks-c_adk
The @FT has written a story about Taiwanese energy costs.
But it's hard not to read this graph as a story about the UK - and the £3.5 billion penalty British industry faces.
Prepare for some graphs..
https://x.com/JohnDBachelor/status/1854500694436274263
The chair of Octopus energy was interviewed this morning, and had very similar comments. And also noted that the $20bn subsidy for CCS was effectively a subsidy for the oil and gas industry (which it is), but not one which would be of much economic benefit to the UK (also correct).
Shall we just say the market isn't what I would expect it to be - there is limited work and the rates offered are well below 2019 prices...
Do you really want to discourage landowners from selling land to people who want to build on it?
One of the arguments in favour of simply abolishing IHT is the distortions it creates by people desperately seeking to avoid it. But then, I suppose no IHT would also have a distorting effect in many respects too.
I cannot see any problems with that.
I really think at this point the odds of Labour losing in 2029 are underpriced.
I'd argue those words from an 'eye witness' somewhat devalues his comments.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Biden won because of his working class cred, derived from a hardscrabble background on Scranton PA. Kamala couldn't convince the working class she was on their side and she lost. They need somebody with working class cred...or, more realistically, who can fake it enough (Clinton was a Rhodes Scholar who could kid people he was a redneck). If the Dems can recreate that approach, they're in.
People are always amazed that Farage and Wilders and Trump and others become popular. It's not just the vile actions, it's the attempts at justification like this, promoted by the BBC, that turn people.
Some places have reportedly only had three bookings all year.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5022503#Comment_5022503
Harris, in her campaign, seemed to refuse to acknowledge this. I would have been running ads about the jobs created, chip making coming back to America etc etc.
Clinton was a Rhodes Scholar, but one who came from a quite modest background.
Will Donald Trump serve a full term as President?
Yes - 4/11
No - 2/1
Charlotte: The movie 2024
The Presidential pardon system is institutionalised corruption, which gives criminals and gangsters a viable route to heavily influence the Presidency - by giving the President an easy route to reward them for their machinations, which is within the law and threatens no consequences for the corrupt President.
These guys called the election - every state correctly - back in October (and got the previous one right, too).
Understanding Biden’s Exit and the 2024 Election: The State Presidential Approval/State Economy Model
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 15 October 2024
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/understanding-bidens-exit-and-the-2024-election-the-state-presidential-approvalstate-economy-model/90DA5291682CEA6BDA943208C0E7E649
Ross Lydall
@RossLydall
Revealed: 'ground-breaking' deal offered by
@TfL
to Tube drivers to get them to call off strikes:
🔴 Four-day week
🔴4.5% pay rise
🔴Paid meal breaks
🔴2.5 hours a week less work
🔴 35-hour working week
🔴Extra week's paid paternity leave
Full story coming up
@EveningStandard
Somebody may have bitten off more than they can true if those reports are true.
Do you have data from 2024 Q3?
What, the BBC reported something Arab/Israeli that favoured the Arab side? I am shocked.
[sarcasm mode off]
Sam Bowman
@s8mb
I don't want to single anyone out here, but it's important to realise that a sizeable share of people involved in public policy think you need some kind of formal expertise to judge whether £100m is an appropriate price to pay to protect a colony of bats from a train line."
https://x.com/s8mb/status/1854530418260787477
He’s right. It’s much better in Korea than outside. Properly delicious if not as as good as the equivalent in Japan. Not as refined and delicate
This is true of all Korea as I’ve said. It is the unrefined Japan. It is the coca leaf or maybe the mambe coca powder to japan’s grade 1 Peruvian crystal flake
There is no excuse for violence, provoked or otherwise.
Let us turn this around. Can you imagine a situation where some anti western islamists were beaten up by far right thugs. Would many people be focusing on the provocation by the jeering islamists?
Forbes found 83 billionaires voted for Harris compared to just 52 billionaires who voted for their fellow billionaire Donald Trump
https://x.com/SethDillon/status/1854387200873394334
George Parker
@GeorgeWParker
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16m
New - A striking addition to the Starmer operation. Jonathan Powell, Blair's chief of staff, backroom architect of Good Friday agreement, back in No10 as national security adviser
There is an ingrained belief in certain quarters that consumption needs to be constrained by higher prices.
Of course there are disturbing statements in every ancient holy book, trouble is an awful lot of conservative Muslims take their holy writ very literally indeed
Interesting how transfers are more complicated than you would expect, including lots of Reform UK->SNP transfers.
If I were employing people in politics, my first instruction to them would be to spend a week where the *only* news consumption they have is the bulletins on music radio stations and BBC push notifications. Think that would get you to par.
https://bsky.app/profile/joxley.bsky.social/post/3la7er2xhmr2o
People feel better off, the government gains support. People feel worse off, the government loses support. And unless they cheat, that's more out of the government's hands than in it. Global factors and the backwash of decisions taken decades ago are more important.
(Modern America has the additional problem that the people keeping you up to date in 90 seconds are largely partisan fruitloops, but sovereign consumers seem to prefer it that way.)
So let's look at it another way. This is the *fourth* major scheme announced in the UK. Countless millions have been thrown at schemes that have delivered next-to nothing.
The only thing that has increased is the bill Here's a £1 billion trial scheme Cameron scrapped in 2016 for 'affordability' reasons:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/25/uk-cancels-pioneering-1bn-carbon-capture-and-storage-competition
Here's a list of CCS projects. There's a long list of proposed projects. a few abandoned ones, and a few working at relatively small scales.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_carbon_capture_and_storage_projects
So a simple question is this: why, this time, will it be different? What has changed to make the previous schemes, unviable for a number of reasons, viable? Why do so many other countries have problems with their schemes?
New leader but even worse results!
I'm asking if you have any relevant data that supports your assertion.
If not, I will discount it and move on.
Do you have any such data?
RefUK ate Tory votes faster than Labour ones.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1854675532954144892?t=fl6JdaueMdsh67LO64IZBQ&s=19
How you break out of the cycle is difficult, but it requires wanting to achieve peace, acknowledging the concerns of different communities, finding governance structures that satisfy those concerns.
Ballot Box Scotland
@BallotBoxScot
Fraserburgh and District (Aberdeenshire) by-election, first preferences:
Conservative: 1145 (36.3%, +3.9)
SNP: 895 (28.4%, +8.4)
Reform UK: 817 (25.9%, new)
Lib Dem: 222 (7%, +2.2)
Family: 71 (2.3%, +1.3)
(Inds won 32.1%, 3.9%, Alba 5.8% in 2022)
Conservative elected stage TBC.
Surprised at how well Reform are doing across Scotland. Interesting second preferences:
LD voters - 35 to Reform, 51 to SNP, 67 to Con
Reform voters - 147 to SNP, 331 to Con
@BallotBoxScot
Central Buchan (Aberdeenshire) by-election first preferences:
Con: 1260 (41.3%, +8)
SNP: 869 (28.5%, -2.6)
LD: 435 (14.3%, +1.2)
RUK: 331 (10.9%, new)
Family: 83 (2.7%, +1.3)
Ind: 71 (2.3%, new)
(2022 non-returns had 21.2% back then)
Conservative elected stage 5.
The George Osborne Austerity Bat Tunnel?
The Boris Johnson Levelling-Up Bat Tunnel?
(Mostly I popped up to do that short "gag". But seriously, folks, we went all-in on gas, because it was abundant and cheap. Which it was, until the moment that it wasn't.
The interesting thing is what industry does when they are told "you can have loads of electricity, in fact we'll pay you to take it off our hands, but only at certain times." Basically when those freaky hours that energy companies have started running become more routine.)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-britain-can-learn-from-donald-trumps-victory/?youtube=community
Yes its all possible, but you probably get a chance once a generation or so, and the chances each time are odds against. I wish it was not so, but thats how I see it.
https://x.com/daveweigel/status/1854789710842831282
Still seeing "Harris couldn't turn out millions of Biden voters," and the count in swing states says that's not true.
In Wisconsin, Harris got 37k more votes than Biden. The most votes of any Dem candidate since Obama in 2008.
She lost bc Trump added 77k more votes since 2020.
She is very close to Biden 2020 raw vote in MI and PA. Had Trump just recreated his 2020 vote, he would have lost MI and PA would be too close to call still. But he added 151k votes in MI, 108k in PA.
What about Georgia? Biden got 2.47m votes in 2020, Harris got 2.54m votes this week. Trump won because he added 200k votes.
NC? Harris outran Biden by 4k votes. Wouldn't even have been enough to win in 2020 ... but Trump added 120k votes.
In some respects we are a much more divided country than England, with double the proportion of people living in flats (tenements) in highly dense cities, yet an extensive rural population. We don't do suburbia and towns in the same way England does.
But vast areas of what is now the Middle East were under Ottoman control. It can certainly be argued that Jews under Ottoman rule had it better than they did in Europe, at times. In the late 1400s the empire actually encouraged immigration from Jews who had been expelled from countries in Europe.
But the rights of Christians and Jews in the empire were repressed, and this repression of Jews increased as the Ottoman Empire started falling. The Ottoman Empire was anti-Semitic; just not as much as many countries in Europe. At times.
The situation reversed over the last two hundred years; conditions for Jews in most of Europe (1930s aside) *generally* improved. In the Middle East over the same period, their conditions got worse, especially as the Ottoman Empire started to disintegrate.
(How much of the decreasing openness of the Ottoman Empire to non-Muslims and foreigners was a symptom of the empire's fall, and how much a cause, is an interesting question.)
But as I've argued before, what if it's evidence of Trump's unique popularity?
A breakdown of the cost will reveal a pyramid of sub-contraction and process.
It is quite possible the actual amount spent on fabrication and installation will be a single digit percentage of the £100 million.
This should trend back to zero and maybe a bias to Trump as slow counting west coast rolls in.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j3dyzsiucbbcCLH2jg3KtpcHTRkbgXoelDQ4ziysqsA/edit?usp=sharing
It's just completely absurd as an intervention to protect biodiversity.