I've looked back at the three Aberdeen election results.
Reform transfers - of those that transferred, 66% went Conservative. Overall, including non-transfers, it's 36.8%
Lib Dem transfers - those that transferred 48% went Conservative. Overall, including non-transfers, it's 31.7%.
Exactly as may LD transfers went to SNP as Conservative.
Read into this tiny sample what you will, but I couldn't argue that Conservatives are better off chasing LD than Reform voters.
Thanks Charlie - a rare example of actual data analysis of second preferences. Though I'd note that that shows where LD and REF voters go to second NOW, rather than where they might go after CONs do anything to chase either LD or REF voters.
The media seem intent in over analyzing the US elections .
It's always the same way. The people who didn't predict what happened tells us why it happened. If you can't predict I'm not going to believe your explanations either.
And of course, most of those who did 'predict' the result essentially just guessed, based on their existing views and biases.
I wonder if Reform overtake the LDs in seats in the next GE.
It's certainly possible. But I think it's difficult.
If it were to happen, I would guess it would need three things to happen:
(1) the LibDems would need to fall back (2) the right wing vote would have to become a lot more efficient, and (3) Reform would need to avoid a situation where people tactically voted against them
I think (1) is likely: the LD vote was extraordinarily efficient last time around, albeit they could well benefit from Starmer's unpopularity, and as a repository for Left-ish votes in that scenario. (I.e. LibDems 2005 scenario).
(2) is more complex, because it I suspect it would need Reform to build up local council strength, so as to make sure that they could position themselves as the obvious challengers in seat [x].
But (3) is the kicker: So long as Farage is the leader and face of Reform, then I think Labour, Green and LibDem voters will concentrate their votes on whoever is most likely to beat them. And, for what it's worth, I think some of them - particularly LibDems - will be prepared to vote Conservative to see off Reform.
The media seem intent in over analyzing the US elections .
Trumps not some man of the people and has done fxck all for working people in terms of economics . Some how he convinced enough people that life was terrible and it was all the fault of Biden and Harris .
This was not a wholesale repudiation of the Dems given how the down ballot votes went especially in terms of state legislatures.
The immigration issue is though one area that the Dems need to address but they don’t have to mimic Trumps plans . A majority of Americans aren’t anti immigrant and a pathway to citizenship is supported in polls .
They don't have to address any of that. They need to wait and see what Trump does before talking about how to respond.
The territory between 'utter disaster' and 'hmm, actually not too terrible' is wide and it's all in view atm. Expect the worst but don't assume it - this seems the right mindset to aim for.
Labour pushing hard on these pay deals as they promised:
Ross Lydall @RossLydall Revealed: 'ground-breaking' deal offered by @TfL to Tube drivers to get them to call off strikes: 🔴 Four-day week 🔴4.5% pay rise 🔴Paid meal breaks 🔴2.5 hours a week less work 🔴 35-hour working week 🔴Extra week's paid paternity leave Full story coming up @EveningStandard
They're tough negotiators, labour.
One has to draw the conclusion that Sir Keir Freebie couldn't negotiate a discount at SCS
He’d pay full price at Pizza Express or Carpetright.
SKS: the man who went shopping at DFS the day there was no sale on.
The only man ever to pay full price for double glazing.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
it should be remembered that the current situation for pensioners is a snapshot.....going forward the percentage of people retiring with mortgages payed off is going to be falling and the percentage of pensioners with a mortgage or renting will be on the rise
Just starting to vaguely plan my next walk. I've booked the time off work (three weeks over end of April beginning of May again)
I've almost decided on the north side of the Pyrenees; from Biarritz (where I hope to eat the world's best fresh anchovies this time; they were sold out when I went in May) to Saint Jean Pied de Port (where I finished my last walk) to Lourdes (because I do pilgrimages) to Perpignan (because I did my first holiday walk from Girona to Perpignan and I want to join things up) to Montpelier
I'd love to see Carcassonne, but I don't fancy that as a walking detour..
One of my GCs I partner w is a Trump guy. We won a new job that will start next year. I just told him I won’t honor today’s materials’ pricing past January. He asked why. I said tariffs could cause 100% increase in COGS or more. That I would send new pricing in the spring. He said but I have to sign the fixed price contract w them tomorrow! And there you have it! One lesson learned two days too late! Too bad. So sad. https://x.com/Andie00471/status/1854515670915973244
Labour pushing hard on these pay deals as they promised:
Ross Lydall @RossLydall Revealed: 'ground-breaking' deal offered by @TfL to Tube drivers to get them to call off strikes: 🔴 Four-day week 🔴4.5% pay rise 🔴Paid meal breaks 🔴2.5 hours a week less work 🔴 35-hour working week 🔴Extra week's paid paternity leave Full story coming up @EveningStandard
They're tough negotiators, labour.
One has to draw the conclusion that Sir Keir Freebie couldn't negotiate a discount at SCS
He’d pay full price at Pizza Express or Carpetright.
SKS: the man who went shopping at DFS the day there was no sale on.
The only man ever to pay full price for double glazing.
The only man ever to see off three conservative prime ministers and win a three figure landslide in 23 years.
The media seem intent in over analyzing the US elections .
Trumps not some man of the people and has done fxck all for working people in terms of economics . Some how he convinced enough people that life was terrible and it was all the fault of Biden and Harris .
This was not a wholesale repudiation of the Dems given how the down ballot votes went especially in terms of state legislatures.
The immigration issue is though one area that the Dems need to address but they don’t have to mimic Trumps plans . A majority of Americans aren’t anti immigrant and a pathway to citizenship is supported in polls .
They don't have to address any of that. They need to wait and see what Trump does before talking about how to respond.
The territory between 'utter disaster' and 'hmm, actually not too terrible' is wide and it's all in view atm. Expect the worst but don't assume it - this seems the right mindset to aim for.
That's where I am.
Despite her vagary, there was probably a pretty narrow window of what a Kamala presidency would be like. Not good, but not catastrophic either. Whereas a Trump presidency could be anything from literally apocalyptic to actually an improvement on where we are now. I think the balance of probability, for me, is that it will be bad. But lets wait and see, and give credit if he does something which is actually good. TDS is so strong that people immediately assume anything he does is the exact opposite of what should be done - sometimes he does get things right (like, last time, his positions on China and the Middle East). I did actually wake up this morning and reflect that two days in, nothing terrible appears to have happened yet. Then remembered that in the American system he doesn't actually take over for another couple of months yet.
Unless Badenoch can find another unifier of “fear Corbyn” and “get Brexit done” where are these voters going to come from?
She’d be much better off in my view doing what Trump did and going after the economy. But she’d have to offer policies to the young.
Housing, housing, housing. People are sick of being in their early 30s paying for someone else's mortgage unable to get on the ladder for themselves. Most of my friends have made it onto the ladder now but there's a lot of bitterness that remains around how much more difficult it was for us vs out parents generation because they've decided to leech off us with rental property.
I wonder if Reform overtake the LDs in seats in the next GE.
I am increasingly of the view that Starmer's Labour is one term and then having failed to solve any economic issues or immigration concerns they are booted out by a Farage surge.
You get the feeling from the press that at least some of his senior team understand the fierce urgency to deliver so maybe they will escape this fate, but so far...
One of my GCs I partner w is a Trump guy. We won a new job that will start next year. I just told him I won’t honor today’s materials’ pricing past January. He asked why. I said tariffs could cause 100% increase in COGS or more. That I would send new pricing in the spring. He said but I have to sign the fixed price contract w them tomorrow! And there you have it! One lesson learned two days too late! Too bad. So sad. https://x.com/Andie00471/status/1854515670915973244
I'm starting a campaign to renationalise Royal Mail so that I can get some of this 12% action, rather than having my payslip "protected"
When I was a boy a first class stamp was 3 old pennies. Now it's 1.65 or one pound thirteen shillings that's 156 plus 240= 396. Now 132 times as expensive at in 1966
£1 in 1966 would be £15.80 today, according to the Bank of England calculator, so that stamp has gone up much more.
Unless Badenoch can find another unifier of “fear Corbyn” and “get Brexit done” where are these voters going to come from?
She’d be much better off in my view doing what Trump did and going after the economy. But she’d have to offer policies to the young.
Housing, housing, housing. People are sick of being in their early 30s paying for someone else's mortgage unable to get on the ladder for themselves. Most of my friends have made it onto the ladder now but there's a lot of bitterness that remains around how much more difficult it was for us vs out parents generation because they've decided to leech off us with rental property.
The trouble is, not everybody is in their early 30s and for every voter like the one you describe there are probably three or four home counties NIMBYs who will be driven to the LibDems for fear that more houses will spoil their beautiful views, or old people who like being paper millionaires (or their kids who will inherit it one day).
And that, in short, is why our hosuing market is buggered.
Unless Badenoch can find another unifier of “fear Corbyn” and “get Brexit done” where are these voters going to come from?
She’d be much better off in my view doing what Trump did and going after the economy. But she’d have to offer policies to the young.
Affordable housing.
Where's that going to come from ?
The Tories have done the absolute opposite of that for the last four decades.
Well instead of giving Ed Miliband billions to piss up the wall we could remove his budget and build a few hundred thousand houses. Then we could also save a billion or so on civil servants by simplifying the planning system and the private sector would build more houses too. I could suggest slashing the overseas aid budget but I'd take that saving and invest in hard power planes and ships instead of the soft power which sees us reduce our security.
I wonder if Reform overtake the LDs in seats in the next GE.
It’s possible but it would require some unusual electoral maths. You’d need the Tories to be weak enough in Reformy areas to lose their first and second places to them there, but strong enough in Lib Demmy areas to claw back seats. The only way I could see that happening is if they go down a sort of German FDP low tax, socially liberal path.
... but Reform aren't known for being socially liberal.
Unless Badenoch can find another unifier of “fear Corbyn” and “get Brexit done” where are these voters going to come from?
She’d be much better off in my view doing what Trump did and going after the economy. But she’d have to offer policies to the young.
Housing, housing, housing. People are sick of being in their early 30s paying for someone else's mortgage unable to get on the ladder for themselves. Most of my friends have made it onto the ladder now but there's a lot of bitterness that remains around how much more difficult it was for us vs out parents generation because they've decided to leech off us with rental property.
The trouble is, not everybody is in their early 30s and for every voter like the one you describe there are probably three or four home counties NIMBYs who will be driven to the LibDems for fear that more houses will spoil their beautiful views, or old people who like being paper millionaires (or their kids who will inherit it one day).
And that, in short, is why our hosuing market is buggered.
Go after landlords, make owner occupiers out of existing stock and force landlords into riskier build to rent investment. We also need about 10 years of net migration less than 100k so the availablity of housing equalises. We don't need to build 250k houses per year necessarily, we need better use of the existing stock and to reduce demand for rental property which means reducing immigration. I'd also target foreign owners, company ownership and overseas investors in existing property, none of those people have votes and are easy to piss off with little downside risk.
Unless Badenoch can find another unifier of “fear Corbyn” and “get Brexit done” where are these voters going to come from?
She’d be much better off in my view doing what Trump did and going after the economy. But she’d have to offer policies to the young.
Affordable housing.
Where's that going to come from ?
The Tories have done the absolute opposite of that for the last four decades.
Well instead of giving Ed Miliband billions to piss up the wall we could remove his budget and build a few hundred thousand houses. Then we could also save a billion or so on civil servants by simplifying the planning system and the private sector would build more houses too. I could suggest slashing the overseas aid budget but I'd take that saving and invest in hard power planes and ships instead of the soft power which sees us reduce our security.
It's not that difficult if you want to do it.
Meaningless blather. The reason Milliband is in government, is that you didn't.
Unless Badenoch can find another unifier of “fear Corbyn” and “get Brexit done” where are these voters going to come from?
She’d be much better off in my view doing what Trump did and going after the economy. But she’d have to offer policies to the young.
Housing, housing, housing. People are sick of being in their early 30s paying for someone else's mortgage unable to get on the ladder for themselves. Most of my friends have made it onto the ladder now but there's a lot of bitterness that remains around how much more difficult it was for us vs out parents generation because they've decided to leech off us with rental property.
The trouble is, not everybody is in their early 30s and for every voter like the one you describe there are probably three or four home counties NIMBYs who will be driven to the LibDems for fear that more houses will spoil their beautiful views, or old people who like being paper millionaires (or their kids who will inherit it one day).
And that, in short, is why our hosuing market is buggered.
You don't need to build any more houses to change the proportions of housing tenure. What happened over the last 14 years was that the number of households owning outright and renting grew, while households with mortgages fell.
More housing will certainly help with overall housing pressure, but that doesn't necessarily mean they won't be snapped up by landlords and used as private rentals. It's a function of massive wealth inequality more than anything, and very difficult to fix.
Unless Badenoch can find another unifier of “fear Corbyn” and “get Brexit done” where are these voters going to come from?
She’d be much better off in my view doing what Trump did and going after the economy. But she’d have to offer policies to the young.
Affordable housing.
Where's that going to come from ?
The Tories have done the absolute opposite of that for the last four decades.
Well instead of giving Ed Miliband billions to piss up the wall we could remove his budget and build a few hundred thousand houses. Then we could also save a billion or so on civil servants by simplifying the planning system and the private sector would build more houses too. I could suggest slashing the overseas aid budget but I'd take that saving and invest in hard power planes and ships instead of the soft power which sees us reduce our security.
It's not that difficult if you want to do it.
Given on the last thread someone said Police only investigate serious crime then next priority is crimes against important people I suggest we could save a bundle by abolishing all police except the serious crime squad as anything lower isn't benefitting the majority of the country.....just replace them with a website which states your crime is unimportant to us you prole but here is a crime number for your insurance company
If you were to go to the Bat Action Trust and offer them £100m to spend as they liked on bat preservation activities, I reckon the net benefit to bats would still have been better than that tunnel. Even if they used £99m of it on new camo trousers and metal detectors.
Unless Badenoch can find another unifier of “fear Corbyn” and “get Brexit done” where are these voters going to come from?
She’d be much better off in my view doing what Trump did and going after the economy. But she’d have to offer policies to the young.
Affordable housing.
Where's that going to come from ?
The Tories have done the absolute opposite of that for the last four decades.
Well instead of giving Ed Miliband billions to piss up the wall we could remove his budget and build a few hundred thousand houses. Then we could also save a billion or so on civil servants by simplifying the planning system and the private sector would build more houses too. I could suggest slashing the overseas aid budget but I'd take that saving and invest in hard power planes and ships instead of the soft power which sees us reduce our security.
It's not that difficult if you want to do it.
Meaningless blather. The reason Milliband is in government, is that you didn't.
You asked how it could be done. I gave you an answer. The remarkable thing is you have no suggestions yourself.
If you were to go to the Bat Action Trust and offer them £100m to spend as they liked on bat preservation activities, I reckon the net benefit to bats would still have been better than that tunnel. Even if they used £99m of it on new camo trousers and metal detectors.
They should have just poisoned the bats, and save the £100m.
So we, in Europe, are seeing Israel advising the following to Jews:
"The National Security Council also advises people to avoid “externalising” Israeli or Jewish identification marks."
I might be dim, but I don't see the trouble in Amsterdam being antisemitic. I haven't heard of pro-Palestinians targeting Dutch Jews. The trouble involved *Israeli* football fans at a time when *Israel* has been conducting warfare against Gaza and Lebanon. And there is certainly video of Maccabi fans pulling down a Palestinian flag from a building, to a certain extent the violence seems to be on both sides.
Unless Badenoch can find another unifier of “fear Corbyn” and “get Brexit done” where are these voters going to come from?
She’d be much better off in my view doing what Trump did and going after the economy. But she’d have to offer policies to the young.
Housing, housing, housing. People are sick of being in their early 30s paying for someone else's mortgage unable to get on the ladder for themselves. Most of my friends have made it onto the ladder now but there's a lot of bitterness that remains around how much more difficult it was for us vs out parents generation because they've decided to leech off us with rental property.
The trouble is, not everybody is in their early 30s and for every voter like the one you describe there are probably three or four home counties NIMBYs who will be driven to the LibDems for fear that more houses will spoil their beautiful views, or old people who like being paper millionaires (or their kids who will inherit it one day).
And that, in short, is why our hosuing market is buggered.
You don't need to build any more houses to change the proportions of housing tenure. What happened over the last 14 years was that the number of households owning outright and renting grew, while households with mortgages fell.
More housing will certainly help with overall housing pressure, but that doesn't necessarily mean they won't be snapped up by landlords and used as private rentals. It's a function of massive wealth inequality more than anything, and very difficult to fix.
Yes and no, it's a function of limited liquidity of suitable homes for first time buyers due to my parents generation buying multiple properties after Labour made their now ill fated changes to the rental sector. Fundamentally we shouldn't be in a place in this country where an individual or individuals own multiple existing properties. We should make it uneconomic to do so and push that investment from existing property into the high risk build to let sector and offer tax free income for landlord built property (not landlords buying new property from a developer) for 20 years or something.
Fundamentally we've allowed my parents generation to make risk free yield of 4-7% and risk free capital gain of 5-10% by borrowing to invest in existing property. They don't want to give it up but any party that wants to get the next generation of voters on side will need to get these people out of the market and any that want to stay as landlords should be directed to building new property with generous allowances to get them on board.
That generates new rental housing and frees up existing property for first time buyers.
So we, in Europe, are seeing Israel advising the following to Jews:
"The National Security Council also advises people to avoid “externalising” Israeli or Jewish identification marks."
I might be dim, but I don't see the trouble in Amsterdam being antisemitic. I haven't heard of pro-Palestinians targeting Dutch Jews. The trouble involved *Israeli* football fans at a time when *Israel* has been conducting warfare against Gaza and Lebanon. And there is certainly video of Maccabi fans pulling down a Palestinian flag from a building, to a certain extent the violence seems to be on both sides.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
In any case the Trump victory is going to embolden those int he Tory party who say they lost the last election because they weren't Reformy enough. Whether that works for them or not remains to be seen. Recent trends in Europe and the US do suggest there is more appetite in the population for the far right than the far left, so extrapolating from the Corbyn disaster to the Tories doesn't necessarily work.
There are plenty of elderly culture warriors in Lib Dem seats too. Not everyone in the yellow wall is a liberal professional who shops at Waitrose.
Plus remember even Corbyn got 40% in 2017 and Melenchon's far left block won most seats in the French legislative elections this year. Bernie Sanders might even have run Trump closer than Harris did, especially in the rustbelt with bluecollar workers.
As you say populist right on rise too in Europe as well as US after the win for Trump and the GOP. Meloni is in government as a populist right leader in government with the centre right and in the Netherlands and Sweden and New Zealand centre right parties are also in government with populist right parties. In Spain the centre right and far right opposition are combined ahead in polls and in Germany the biggest gainers since the last election are the far right AfD. Le Pen's party also on over a third of the vote still in France too.
Centrist liberalism is the main loser at the moment since the pandemic and with rising cost of living, even Macron has had to do a deal with the centre right to keep his party in government. Trudeau in Canada too trails the populist right Polievre's Conservatives in current polls and in Australia the hard right conservative Opposition Leader Dutton is level in polls with Albanese and his Labor government.
India and Russia and Israel all led by rightwing nationalists while Brazil has a populist left President
Inflation - and food shortages - seems to make populations uniquely restive in a way recession or depression don't. I think it's the feeling of loss of control, as if things are spiralling away. It's a much more dynamic form of economic woe than recession, which can induce a more chronic despair and pessimism. (It's one small source of hope about Russia where prices have been soaring).
Inflation was directly behind the French revolution and the Arab spring. It was almost certainly the main economic trigger for the Bolshevik revolution. The impact of Weimar hyperinflation in Germany is a subject of debate, but certainly a factor.
Recessions and inflation make themselves felt in very different ways. The thing with recessions is that their worst results are felt very unevenly - you either get laid off, or you carry on working at your normal rate.
Inflation is the opposite - everybody finds that their money doesn't go as far, and so they feel poorer.
From a political point of few, 5% of the population being very grumpy because they have been laid off is far less electorally damaging than 100% of the population being fairly grumpy because the feel 10% poorer.
Trump's policies will stoke inflation just as it's come down recently.
So we, in Europe, are seeing Israel advising the following to Jews:
"The National Security Council also advises people to avoid “externalising” Israeli or Jewish identification marks."
I might be dim, but I don't see the trouble in Amsterdam being antisemitic. I haven't heard of pro-Palestinians targeting Dutch Jews. The trouble involved *Israeli* football fans at a time when *Israel* has been conducting warfare against Gaza and Lebanon. And there is certainly video of Maccabi fans pulling down a Palestinian flag from a building, to a certain extent the violence seems to be on both sides.
I have seen one video of two or three people pulling down a Palestinian flag. There are videos of Israelis - in fact, just people who might have looked Jewish to the rabble - being kicked on the ground, and oof other violence towards them.
I'd suggest that equating the two is a little odd.
Unless Badenoch can find another unifier of “fear Corbyn” and “get Brexit done” where are these voters going to come from?
She’d be much better off in my view doing what Trump did and going after the economy. But she’d have to offer policies to the young.
Housing, housing, housing. People are sick of being in their early 30s paying for someone else's mortgage unable to get on the ladder for themselves. Most of my friends have made it onto the ladder now but there's a lot of bitterness that remains around how much more difficult it was for us vs out parents generation because they've decided to leech off us with rental property.
The trouble is, not everybody is in their early 30s and for every voter like the one you describe there are probably three or four home counties NIMBYs who will be driven to the LibDems for fear that more houses will spoil their beautiful views, or old people who like being paper millionaires (or their kids who will inherit it one day).
And that, in short, is why our hosuing market is buggered.
You don't need to build any more houses to change the proportions of housing tenure. What happened over the last 14 years was that the number of households owning outright and renting grew, while households with mortgages fell.
More housing will certainly help with overall housing pressure, but that doesn't necessarily mean they won't be snapped up by landlords and used as private rentals. It's a function of massive wealth inequality more than anything, and very difficult to fix.
Yes and no, it's a function of limited liquidity of suitable homes for first time buyers due to my parents generation buying multiple properties after Labour made their now ill fated changes to the rental sector. Fundamentally we shouldn't be in a place in this country where an individual or individuals own multiple existing properties. We should make it uneconomic to do so and push that investment from existing property into the high risk build to let sector and offer tax free income for landlord built property (not landlords buying new property from a developer) for 20 years or something.
Fundamentally we've allowed my parents generation to make risk free yield of 4-7% and risk free capital gain of 5-10% by borrowing to invest in existing property. They don't want to give it up but any party that wants to get the next generation of voters on side will need to get these people out of the market and any that want to stay as landlords should be directed to building new property with generous allowances to get them on board.
That generates new rental housing and frees up existing property for first time buyers.
8 million fewer properties and a similar population to France.
It all comes back to the artificial limits on building properties.
If I was a billionaire, I would be tempted to start building a town on some land, with getting any permission to do so.
I don't want to single anyone out here, but it's important to realise that a sizeable share of people involved in public policy think you need some kind of formal expertise to judge whether £100m is an appropriate price to pay to protect a colony of bats from a train line."
So we, in Europe, are seeing Israel advising the following to Jews:
"The National Security Council also advises people to avoid “externalising” Israeli or Jewish identification marks."
I might be dim, but I don't see the trouble in Amsterdam being antisemitic. I haven't heard of pro-Palestinians targeting Dutch Jews. The trouble involved *Israeli* football fans at a time when *Israel* has been conducting warfare against Gaza and Lebanon. And there is certainly video of Maccabi fans pulling down a Palestinian flag from a building, to a certain extent the violence seems to be on both sides.
You don't know the Netherlands, then.
There was a reason that Hirsi Ali, Pim_Fortuyn etc appeared there. The question of the Paradox of Tolerance.
Analysis summary is that Dem vote in swing states slightly down but deciding factor was large increase in Trump vote. Trends in other states differed but not relevant to EC result.
So the question is, how did the GOP mobilise their vote in the swing states so effectively when reporting was that they had a poor ground operation.
It's not mobilisation so much as motivation. Trump motivated the voters and Harris didn't. You can lay on as many buses as you want, have thousands of activists out knocking on doors but if the voter isn't motivated to vote for your candidate it's all irrelevant. GOTV ground campaigns help in the margin, they can't overcome a poor candidate.
You can see that in the past voting numbers - Biden got a lot more people to vote Democrat, when he won.
Biden's vote, though, was a complete historical outlier, for either Democratic or Republican candidates this century.
So time to do it again then All trends are outliers in the beginning.
Biden won because of his working class cred, derived from a hardscrabble background on Scranton PA. Kamala couldn't convince the working class she was on their side and she lost. They need somebody with working class cred...or, more realistically, who can fake it enough (Clinton was a Rhodes Scholar who could kid people he was a redneck). If the Dems can recreate that approach, they're in.
I think this is a very superficial view of politics as 'optics' that is getting a bit dated. She's black, he's hispanic, he can 'do the working class thing', she 'has a great back story' - it's all bollocks and people are waking up to it. It's about retail offering - politics is (and should be) becoming more transactional. What are you going to DO? The democrats don't need a better application of lipstick on the pig, nor do the Tories. That's why Kemi was a bad choice and Robert Jenrick was the right one.
Analysis summary is that Dem vote in swing states slightly down but deciding factor was large increase in Trump vote. Trends in other states differed but not relevant to EC result.
So the question is, how did the GOP mobilise their vote in the swing states so effectively when reporting was that they had a poor ground operation.
It's not mobilisation so much as motivation. Trump motivated the voters and Harris didn't. You can lay on as many buses as you want, have thousands of activists out knocking on doors but if the voter isn't motivated to vote for your candidate it's all irrelevant. GOTV ground campaigns help in the margin, they can't overcome a poor candidate.
You can see that in the past voting numbers - Biden got a lot more people to vote Democrat, when he won.
Biden's vote, though, was a complete historical outlier, for either Democratic or Republican candidates this century.
So time to do it again then All trends are outliers in the beginning.
Biden won because of his working class cred, derived from a hardscrabble background on Scranton PA. Kamala couldn't convince the working class she was on their side and she lost. They need somebody with working class cred...or, more realistically, who can fake it enough (Clinton was a Rhodes Scholar who could kid people he was a redneck). If the Dems can recreate that approach, they're in.
I think this is a very superficial view of politics as 'optics' that is getting a bit dated. She's black, he's hispanic, he can 'do the working class thing', she 'has a great back story' - it's all bollocks and people are waking up to it. It's about retail offering - politics is (and should be) becoming more transactional. What are you going to DO? The democrats don't need a better application of lipstick on the pig, nor do the Tories. That's why Kemi was a bad choice and Robert Jenrick was the right one.
In the case of Kamala, as a centre left man, I found she did her best to tell people like me not to vote for her.
Comments
If it were to happen, I would guess it would need three things to happen:
(1) the LibDems would need to fall back
(2) the right wing vote would have to become a lot more efficient, and
(3) Reform would need to avoid a situation where people tactically voted against them
I think (1) is likely: the LD vote was extraordinarily efficient last time around, albeit they could well benefit from Starmer's unpopularity, and as a repository for Left-ish votes in that scenario. (I.e. LibDems 2005 scenario).
(2) is more complex, because it I suspect it would need Reform to build up local council strength, so as to make sure that they could position themselves as the obvious challengers in seat [x].
But (3) is the kicker: So long as Farage is the leader and face of Reform, then I think Labour, Green and LibDem voters will concentrate their votes on whoever is most likely to beat them. And, for what it's worth, I think some of them - particularly LibDems - will be prepared to vote Conservative to see off Reform.
No, I am not going to write about what Harris should have done, and pretend that my personal biases/preferences have some kind of universal significance
https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/1854731815761678652
She’d be much better off in my view doing what Trump did and going after the economy. But she’d have to offer policies to the young.
I don't want her to change her position on culture. But culture isn't sufficient on its own, nor even as a main theme.
The Tories have done the absolute opposite of that for the last four decades.
I've almost decided on the north side of the Pyrenees; from Biarritz (where I hope to eat the world's best fresh anchovies this time; they were sold out when I went in May) to Saint Jean Pied de Port (where I finished my last walk) to Lourdes (because I do pilgrimages) to Perpignan (because I did my first holiday walk from Girona to Perpignan and I want to join things up) to Montpelier
I'd love to see Carcassonne, but I don't fancy that as a walking detour..
https://x.com/Andie00471/status/1854515670915973244
"The National Security Council also advises people to avoid “externalising” Israeli or Jewish identification marks."
Despite her vagary, there was probably a pretty narrow window of what a Kamala presidency would be like. Not good, but not catastrophic either. Whereas a Trump presidency could be anything from literally apocalyptic to actually an improvement on where we are now.
I think the balance of probability, for me, is that it will be bad. But lets wait and see, and give credit if he does something which is actually good. TDS is so strong that people immediately assume anything he does is the exact opposite of what should be done - sometimes he does get things right (like, last time, his positions on China and the Middle East).
I did actually wake up this morning and reflect that two days in, nothing terrible appears to have happened yet. Then remembered that in the American system he doesn't actually take over for another couple of months yet.
https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1854903592781533476
And that, in short, is why our hosuing market is buggered.
It's not that difficult if you want to do it.
The reason Milliband is in government, is that you didn't.
More housing will certainly help with overall housing pressure, but that doesn't necessarily mean they won't be snapped up by landlords and used as private rentals. It's a function of massive wealth inequality more than anything, and very difficult to fix.
Obviously they could, but would it be allowed in the current climate?
How fucking depressing that this question isn't ludicrous
NEW THREAD
Fundamentally we've allowed my parents generation to make risk free yield of 4-7% and risk free capital gain of 5-10% by borrowing to invest in existing property. They don't want to give it up but any party that wants to get the next generation of voters on side will need to get these people out of the market and any that want to stay as landlords should be directed to building new property with generous allowances to get them on board.
That generates new rental housing and frees up existing property for first time buyers.
I'd suggest that equating the two is a little odd.
It all comes back to the artificial limits on building properties.
If I was a billionaire, I would be tempted to start building a town on some land, with getting any permission to do so.
There was a reason that Hirsi Ali, Pim_Fortuyn etc appeared there. The question of the Paradox of Tolerance.
I can totally see why people stayed at home.