UK businesses have both hands tied behind their backs. Will only get worse following the budget. No idea why any business would locate in the UK now.
The Government's answer will no doubt be to cover the landscape with wind turbines. How much have they been generating the past week with all the still air?
It's analysis is that Taiwan's energy prices have escalated so seriously in the last year because of an overdependence on gas and oil, and that their strategy to mitigate involves rapid and heavy investment in wind power .
Unlike the Blackpool result, STV means that Reform votes largely transfer to the Conservatives. I expect the Conservatives will make a third gain n Aberdeenshire, today.
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Several thousand years of premeditation. On both sides.
I don't give a shit.
There is no excuse for violence, provoked or otherwise.
Let us turn this around. Can you imagine a situation where some anti western islamists were beaten up by far right thugs. Would many people be focusing on the provocation by the jeering islamists?
Sadly, violence is a Middle East default setting, whether it is massacring a music festival or levelling a tower block to get one "target". There is no excuse for violence, other than "it is what the other lot has always done to us". I have idea how you break out of that cycle, but there is no evidence of anyone trying in recent years.
I don't think there is any inevitability about this. There are and have been periods of peace and of conflict in many different parts of the world. That should give us hope for the possibility of change. The Arab-Israeli situation was looking better at times in the late 1980s and in the 1990s. Other long-standing conflicts elsewhere in the world have moved towards peace (e.g., Northern Ireland, Basque country, Cyprus).
How you break out of the cycle is difficult, but it requires wanting to achieve peace, acknowledging the concerns of different communities, finding governance structures that satisfy those concerns.
BIB - does this just tie in with events in Iran? By all accounts in the 80's, before the revolution, Iran was a pretty tolerant place, with women in western style dress etc. Now its not, and it is a major driver of conflict in the region.
But absolutely there can be a pathway out of violence and it takes courage to step back from the latest round of retaliation to try to achieve this. Could Israel have responded differently to the attacks of Oct 7th? Many in the west were supportive up to a point, but then revulsed by what looks very like an attempt to destroy Gaza completely. Did that need to happen?
Trees tend to be good at carbon capture and storage -- especially if you cut them regularly, and plant new ones in their places.
It depends what happens to the tree after it is cut down. Over a long enough time horizon - a couple of hundred years, say - one way or another most of the carbon in wood will return to the atmosphere. Trees are part of the natural carbon cycle.
One of the slightly better ideas for carbon capture and storage has been to capture the carbon dioxide released when burning wood in power stations and bury that underground. If you could be confident the cartoon dioxide would stay underground, and that the tree plantations weren't releasing carbon from the soil, then they would be carbon negative.
But there's quite a few steps in the process, you need to use a lot of land for it, and it might end up cheaper to make some more solar panels and use the electricity on some process to directly remove carbon dioxide from the air.
Only three of yesterday's byelection results have been reported overnight: Wyre, Marsh Mill: RUK gain from C Blackpool, Bispham: Lab gain from C Bracknell, Great Hollands: Lab hold 6 seats to declare today, Previews at andrewspreviews.substack.com
Still to come, five in Scotland and a Green defence in Herefordshire.
It looks like Reform will do very well in Blackpool and its environs in 2025.
The Bispham result was a bit odd. Labour’s vote share dropped sharply, but they squeezed a win, because the right wing vote was split between Conservatives, Reform, and an independent Conservative.
Yes far from Badenoch squeezing the Reform vote it looks like Farage's party is stronger than ever against her Tories and Starmer Labour on last night's local by election results
I wonder if she might be more likely to do a deal with Farage than other potential Tory leaders.
Less likely than Jenrick would have been. Though if the numbers were there in a hung parliament she would have no choice if Tories + Reform +DUP/TUV had more seats than Labour + LDs + SNP +PC+Greens+SDLP+Alliance
I don't think Farage will do a deal with the Tories. His aim is to destroy and replace them. I think he will succeed by 2028. Look at all yesterday by election results for a taster.
He won't, on current polls the swing since 2024 is mainly from Labour to Reform not Tory to Reform. No surprise as in July the Tories were down to their core vote anyway.
Even on last night's local by elections in England and Scotland the Tories beat Reform in more seats where they stood than Reform beat the Tories. Reform cannot beat Labour without Tory support anymore than the Tories cannot beat Labour without Reform support. See the Blackpool result where Labour won on just 31.5% with the Tories and Reform combined on 53%
Trees tend to be good at carbon capture and storage -- especially if you cut them regularly, and plant new ones in their places.
Although it does rather depend what happens the tree in its afterlife. Used in a building, or some other long term use the carbon is indeed locked away. Shoved into your woodburner/Drax power station, not so much.
The chair of Octopus energy was interviewed this morning, and had very similar comments. And also noted that the $20bn subsidy for CCS was effectively a subsidy for the oil and gas industry (which it is), but not one which would be of much economic benefit to the UK (also correct).
Got a link to the interview? Or generally a good analysis on carbon capture storage?
The interview was on the Today program. Sometime before 7am, I think, as I was driving to work.
Only three of yesterday's byelection results have been reported overnight: Wyre, Marsh Mill: RUK gain from C Blackpool, Bispham: Lab gain from C Bracknell, Great Hollands: Lab hold 6 seats to declare today, Previews at andrewspreviews.substack.com
Still to come, five in Scotland and a Green defence in Herefordshire.
It looks like Reform will do very well in Blackpool and its environs in 2025.
The Bispham result was a bit odd. Labour’s vote share dropped sharply, but they squeezed a win, because the right wing vote was split between Conservatives, Reform, and an independent Conservative.
Yes far from Badenoch squeezing the Reform vote it looks like Farage's party is stronger than ever against her Tories and Starmer Labour on last night's local by election results
I wonder if she might be more likely to do a deal with Farage than other potential Tory leaders.
Less likely than Jenrick would have been. Though if the numbers were there in a hung parliament she would have no choice if Tories + Reform +DUP/TUV had more seats than Labour + LDs + SNP +PC+Greens+SDLP+Alliance
I don't think Farage will do a deal with the Tories. His aim is to destroy and replace them. I think he will succeed by 2028. Look at all yesterday by election results for a taster.
He won't, on current polls the swing since 2024 is mainly from Labour to Reform not Tory to Reform. No surprise as in July the Tories were down to their core vote anyway.
Even on last night's local by elections in England and Scotland the Tories beat Reform in more seats where they stood than Reform beat the Tories. Reform cannot beat Labour without Tory support anymore than the Tories cannot beat Labour without Reform support. See the Blackpool result where Labour won on just 31.5% with the Tories and Reform combined on 53%
Very early days. There is a trend. Look at the US.
Only three of yesterday's byelection results have been reported overnight: Wyre, Marsh Mill: RUK gain from C Blackpool, Bispham: Lab gain from C Bracknell, Great Hollands: Lab hold 6 seats to declare today, Previews at andrewspreviews.substack.com
Still to come, five in Scotland and a Green defence in Herefordshire.
It looks like Reform will do very well in Blackpool and its environs in 2025.
The Bispham result was a bit odd. Labour’s vote share dropped sharply, but they squeezed a win, because the right wing vote was split between Conservatives, Reform, and an independent Conservative.
Yes far from Badenoch squeezing the Reform vote it looks like Farage's party is stronger than ever against her Tories and Starmer Labour on last night's local by election results
I wonder if she might be more likely to do a deal with Farage than other potential Tory leaders.
Less likely than Jenrick would have been. Though if the numbers were there in a hung parliament she would have no choice if Tories + Reform +DUP/TUV had more seats than Labour + LDs + SNP +PC+Greens+SDLP+Alliance
I don't think Farage will do a deal with the Tories. His aim is to destroy and replace them. I think he will succeed by 2028. Look at all yesterday by election results for a taster.
He won't, on current polls the swing since 2024 is mainly from Labour to Reform not Tory to Reform. No surprise as in July the Tories were down to their core vote anyway.
Even on last night's local by elections in England and Scotland the Tories beat Reform in more seats where they stood than Reform beat the Tories. Reform cannot beat Labour without Tory support anymore than the Tories cannot beat Labour without Reform support. See the Blackpool result where Labour won on just 31.5% with the Tories and Reform combined on 53%
There is a lot of truth in that but that is now, and we cannot predict the future not least after yesterday's election of Trump
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Several thousand years of premeditation. On both sides.
I think it's a canard to talk of "several thousand years" of Arab/Jewish conflict. Historically, there was more Christian anti-Semitism. The Arab-Jewish conflicts we are familiar with today only really go back to the late 19th century.
Hmmm. Yes and no. Yes, as in there was a hideous amount of anti-Jewish sentiment, actions and laws in Christian Europe before (say) 1800. And progress towards improving life for Jews in Europe was very slow after that. But progress was made.
But vast areas of what is now the Middle East were under Ottoman control. It can certainly be argued that Jews under Ottoman rule had it better than they did in Europe, at times. In the late 1400s the empire actually encouraged immigration from Jews who had been expelled from countries in Europe.
But the rights of Christians and Jews in the empire were repressed, and this repression of Jews increased as the Ottoman Empire started falling. The Ottoman Empire was anti-Semitic; just not as much as many countries in Europe. At times.
The situation reversed over the last two hundred years; conditions for Jews in most of Europe (1930s aside) *generally* improved. In the Middle East over the same period, their conditions got worse, especially as the Ottoman Empire started to disintegrate.
(How much of the decreasing openness of the Ottoman Empire to non-Muslims and foreigners was a symptom of the empire's fall, and how much a cause, is an interesting question.)
“1930s aside” is… um… something of an understatement.
Just had that Korean bbq that @Nigelb has been insisting I try!
He’s right. It’s much better in Korea than outside. Properly delicious if not as as good as the equivalent in Japan. Not as refined and delicate
This is true of all Korea as I’ve said. It is the unrefined Japan. It is the coca leaf or maybe the mambe coca powder to japan’s grade 1 Peruvian crystal flake
Are the Japanese as hospitable ? I found the Koreans (on the whole) extremely so.
In return, cheers for the recommendation if Travellers in the Third Reich. Fascinating.
On the modern understanding of fascism debate, which regularly surfaces here, I was intrigued to note that a British MP fought on the front in WWI; supported Franco in the Civil War; opposed appeasement; and advocated pretty well his whole life for a Jewish state in Palestine.
And died with Sikorski in the 1943 Gibraltar air crash.
Only three of yesterday's byelection results have been reported overnight: Wyre, Marsh Mill: RUK gain from C Blackpool, Bispham: Lab gain from C Bracknell, Great Hollands: Lab hold 6 seats to declare today, Previews at andrewspreviews.substack.com
Still to come, five in Scotland and a Green defence in Herefordshire.
It looks like Reform will do very well in Blackpool and its environs in 2025.
The Bispham result was a bit odd. Labour’s vote share dropped sharply, but they squeezed a win, because the right wing vote was split between Conservatives, Reform, and an independent Conservative.
Yes far from Badenoch squeezing the Reform vote it looks like Farage's party is stronger than ever against her Tories and Starmer Labour on last night's local by election results
I wonder if she might be more likely to do a deal with Farage than other potential Tory leaders.
Less likely than Jenrick would have been. Though if the numbers were there in a hung parliament she would have no choice if Tories + Reform +DUP/TUV had more seats than Labour + LDs + SNP +PC+Greens+SDLP+Alliance
Maybe the Conservative Party should aspire to get to a situation where their only coalition options aren’t RefUK/DUP/TUV?
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
There is possibly a regional thing at play here, I could imagine Refuk/Tory being far more fungible in Essex/London borders than most of the country, and especially somewhere like Scotland.
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Several thousand years of premeditation. On both sides.
I think it's a canard to talk of "several thousand years" of Arab/Jewish conflict. Historically, there was more Christian anti-Semitism. The Arab-Jewish conflicts we are familiar with today only really go back to the late 19th century.
Hmmm. Yes and no. Yes, as in there was a hideous amount of anti-Jewish sentiment, actions and laws in Christian Europe before (say) 1800. And progress towards improving life for Jews in Europe was very slow after that. But progress was made.
But vast areas of what is now the Middle East were under Ottoman control. It can certainly be argued that Jews under Ottoman rule had it better than they did in Europe, at times. In the late 1400s the empire actually encouraged immigration from Jews who had been expelled from countries in Europe.
But the rights of Christians and Jews in the empire were repressed, and this repression of Jews increased as the Ottoman Empire started falling. The Ottoman Empire was anti-Semitic; just not as much as many countries in Europe. At times.
The situation reversed over the last two hundred years; conditions for Jews in most of Europe (1930s aside) *generally* improved. In the Middle East over the same period, their conditions got worse, especially as the Ottoman Empire started to disintegrate.
(How much of the decreasing openness of the Ottoman Empire to non-Muslims and foreigners was a symptom of the empire's fall, and how much a cause, is an interesting question.)
“1930s aside” is… um… something of an understatement.
I wasn't quite sure how to put that. I wanted to mention it, because it's such a glaring point, but also wanted to kind-of put it as an exception to what has generally been an equalisation of the rights of Jews in most of Europe since 1800.
Labour pushing hard on these pay deals as they promised:
Ross Lydall @RossLydall Revealed: 'ground-breaking' deal offered by @TfL to Tube drivers to get them to call off strikes: 🔴 Four-day week 🔴4.5% pay rise 🔴Paid meal breaks 🔴2.5 hours a week less work 🔴 35-hour working week 🔴Extra week's paid paternity leave Full story coming up @EveningStandard
They're tough negotiators, labour.
One has to draw the conclusion that Sir Keir Freebie couldn't negotiate a discount at SCS
I think people are over-thinking this election. Trump lost in 2020 because of his inadequate response to COVID. Biden/Harris lost in 2024 because of the inflation caused by the government stimulus to the COVID-hit economy.
If that is the reason we should forecast the Republicans' worst result since 1936 in 2028 given what Trump's proposing to unleash.
If of course there is an election in 2028.
There will be and Trump won't be a candidate.
Harris has lost now, you can drop the paranoia...
And you can drop the insouciance. It's not paranoid to be concerned about what Trump might do towards weakening US democracy.
Weakening? Maybe. A little. But that's a totally different concept than abolishing elections. And he doesn't even have the power to go for a third term.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Several thousand years of premeditation. On both sides.
I don't give a shit.
There is no excuse for violence, provoked or otherwise.
Let us turn this around. Can you imagine a situation where some anti western islamists were beaten up by far right thugs. Would many people be focusing on the provocation by the jeering islamists?
Sadly, violence is a Middle East default setting, whether it is massacring a music festival or levelling a tower block to get one "target". There is no excuse for violence, other than "it is what the other lot has always done to us". I have idea how you break out of that cycle, but there is no evidence of anyone trying in recent years.
I don't think there is any inevitability about this. There are and have been periods of peace and of conflict in many different parts of the world. That should give us hope for the possibility of change. The Arab-Israeli situation was looking better at times in the late 1980s and in the 1990s. Other long-standing conflicts elsewhere in the world have moved towards peace (e.g., Northern Ireland, Basque country, Cyprus).
How you break out of the cycle is difficult, but it requires wanting to achieve peace, acknowledging the concerns of different communities, finding governance structures that satisfy those concerns.
I think we can all agree, absent a new generation of peacemakeers, the last year has set ME peace a decade or more.
And Bibi and Trump and whoever are the latest survivors to the mantle of Hezbollah and Hamas do not look like those peacemakers.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
Given Scottish Government Finances I would love to know where the money is coming from...
Only three of yesterday's byelection results have been reported overnight: Wyre, Marsh Mill: RUK gain from C Blackpool, Bispham: Lab gain from C Bracknell, Great Hollands: Lab hold 6 seats to declare today, Previews at andrewspreviews.substack.com
Still to come, five in Scotland and a Green defence in Herefordshire.
It looks like Reform will do very well in Blackpool and its environs in 2025.
The Bispham result was a bit odd. Labour’s vote share dropped sharply, but they squeezed a win, because the right wing vote was split between Conservatives, Reform, and an independent Conservative.
Yes far from Badenoch squeezing the Reform vote it looks like Farage's party is stronger than ever against her Tories and Starmer Labour on last night's local by election results
I wonder if she might be more likely to do a deal with Farage than other potential Tory leaders.
Less likely than Jenrick would have been. Though if the numbers were there in a hung parliament she would have no choice if Tories + Reform +DUP/TUV had more seats than Labour + LDs + SNP +PC+Greens+SDLP+Alliance
Maybe the Conservative Party should aspire to get to a situation where their only coalition options aren’t RefUK/DUP/TUV?
Their only possible change of that was with Tugendhat squeezing the LD vote or Cleverly the Labour vote but no chance of Badenoch squeezing either or doing a deal with Labour or the LDs
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
Anyone would think you are a Lib Dem, with use of percentages like that. Perhaps it needs a bar chart.
For full info, of those that transferred, 66% did indeed redistribute to the Tories. My quick maths:
613 to Con 211 to SNP 117 to LD
674 didn't transfer to anyone.
So about 2/3 of Reform votes that did transfer, but about 1/3 of Reform votes in all.
Which is kind of consistent with the model of Con-to-Ref movers. Some can, if push comes to shove, be attracted back to the Conservatives for fear of something worse. But about as many are just as cross with the Tories as they are with everyone else. If they can't have Nigel, they don't want nobody, baby.
Only three of yesterday's byelection results have been reported overnight: Wyre, Marsh Mill: RUK gain from C Blackpool, Bispham: Lab gain from C Bracknell, Great Hollands: Lab hold 6 seats to declare today, Previews at andrewspreviews.substack.com
Still to come, five in Scotland and a Green defence in Herefordshire.
It looks like Reform will do very well in Blackpool and its environs in 2025.
The Bispham result was a bit odd. Labour’s vote share dropped sharply, but they squeezed a win, because the right wing vote was split between Conservatives, Reform, and an independent Conservative.
Yes far from Badenoch squeezing the Reform vote it looks like Farage's party is stronger than ever against her Tories and Starmer Labour on last night's local by election results
I wonder if she might be more likely to do a deal with Farage than other potential Tory leaders.
Less likely than Jenrick would have been. Though if the numbers were there in a hung parliament she would have no choice if Tories + Reform +DUP/TUV had more seats than Labour + LDs + SNP +PC+Greens+SDLP+Alliance
I don't think Farage will do a deal with the Tories. His aim is to destroy and replace them. I think he will succeed by 2028. Look at all yesterday by election results for a taster.
He won't, on current polls the swing since 2024 is mainly from Labour to Reform not Tory to Reform. No surprise as in July the Tories were down to their core vote anyway.
Even on last night's local by elections in England and Scotland the Tories beat Reform in more seats where they stood than Reform beat the Tories. Reform cannot beat Labour without Tory support anymore than the Tories cannot beat Labour without Reform support. See the Blackpool result where Labour won on just 31.5% with the Tories and Reform combined on 53%
Very early days. There is a trend. Look at the US.
Trump won with basically the US Tory and Reform vote combined, just as Boris did here in 2019
Just had that Korean bbq that @Nigelb has been insisting I try!
He’s right. It’s much better in Korea than outside. Properly delicious if not as as good as the equivalent in Japan. Not as refined and delicate
This is true of all Korea as I’ve said. It is the unrefined Japan. It is the coca leaf or maybe the mambe coca powder to japan’s grade 1 Peruvian crystal flake
Are the Japanese as hospitable ? I found the Koreans (on the whole) extremely so.
In return, cheers for the recommendation if Travellers in the Third Reich. Fascinating.
On the modern understanding of fascism debate, which regularly surfaces here, I was intrigued to note that a British MP fought on the front in WWI; supported Franco in the Civil War; opposed appeasement; and advocated pretty well his whole life for a Jewish state in Palestine.
And died with Sikorski in the 1943 Gibraltar air crash.
The Japanese are possibly even more hospitable. Great people
Honestly if you really enjoyed Korea (and it looks like you did) you MUST visit Japan which is much more interesting, strange, beautiful (cities aside), historical, diverse, compelling and very very cheap right now. And they have the best food in the world
I’m now planning my next Japanese sojourns in 2025. I want to see the far south and far north
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
Given Scottish Government Finances I would love to know where the money is coming from...
Trees tend to be good at carbon capture and storage -- especially if you cut them regularly, and plant new ones in their places.
Although it does rather depend what happens the tree in its afterlife. Used in a building, or some other long term use the carbon is indeed locked away. Shoved into your woodburner/Drax power station, not so much.
Turn it into charcoal and bury it in disused coal mines.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Labour pushing hard on these pay deals as they promised:
Ross Lydall @RossLydall Revealed: 'ground-breaking' deal offered by @TfL to Tube drivers to get them to call off strikes: 🔴 Four-day week 🔴4.5% pay rise 🔴Paid meal breaks 🔴2.5 hours a week less work 🔴 35-hour working week 🔴Extra week's paid paternity leave Full story coming up @EveningStandard
Doing 14/15 of the hours for 4.5% more money is a 12% payrise
I would suggest @HYUFD is more a Reform and Farage supporter then he cares to admit
@HYUFD is big enough and strong enough to argue for himself. But I'm not sure that's fair. It's more that he wants a Conservative government, and sees a Reform Rapprochement as a necessary part of that. And based on the numbers, he's probably right.
It's an awkard echo of what has played out Stateside over the last eighteen months. Colour me pink and call me Susan, but I don't think many of the higher-ups in the Republican Party really want Trump or MAGA. Partly because he has shoved them aside, and partly becuase they know that this is likely to be a hot mess. But they couldn't see a way of winning if they squashed him- which they totally had the power to do, but didn't.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Exactly. That's why means testing it was a sensible idea.
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Several thousand years of premeditation. On both sides.
I don't give a shit.
There is no excuse for violence, provoked or otherwise.
Let us turn this around. Can you imagine a situation where some anti western islamists were beaten up by far right thugs. Would many people be focusing on the provocation by the jeering islamists?
Sadly, violence is a Middle East default setting, whether it is massacring a music festival or levelling a tower block to get one "target". There is no excuse for violence, other than "it is what the other lot has always done to us". I have idea how you break out of that cycle, but there is no evidence of anyone trying in recent years.
I don't think there is any inevitability about this. There are and have been periods of peace and of conflict in many different parts of the world. That should give us hope for the possibility of change. The Arab-Israeli situation was looking better at times in the late 1980s and in the 1990s. Other long-standing conflicts elsewhere in the world have moved towards peace (e.g., Northern Ireland, Basque country, Cyprus).
How you break out of the cycle is difficult, but it requires wanting to achieve peace, acknowledging the concerns of different communities, finding governance structures that satisfy those concerns.
BIB - does this just tie in with events in Iran? By all accounts in the 80's, before the revolution, Iran was a pretty tolerant place, with women in western style dress etc. Now its not, and it is a major driver of conflict in the region.
But absolutely there can be a pathway out of violence and it takes courage to step back from the latest round of retaliation to try to achieve this. Could Israel have responded differently to the attacks of Oct 7th? Many in the west were supportive up to a point, but then revulsed by what looks very like an attempt to destroy Gaza completely. Did that need to happen?
Iran is certainly a huge part of multiple conflicts in the Middle East.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
I would suggest @HYUFD is more a Reform and Farage supporter then he cares to admit
@HYUFD is big enough and strong enough to argue for himself. But I'm not sure that's fair. It's more that he wants a Conservative government, and sees a Reform Rapprochement as a necessary part of that. And based on the numbers, he's probably right.
It's an awkard echo of what has played out Stateside over the last eighteen months. Colour me pink and call me Susan, but I don't think many of the higher-ups in the Republican Party really want Trump or MAGA. Partly because he has shoved them aside, and partly becuase they know that this is likely to be a hot mess. But they couldn't see a way of winning if they squashed him- which they totally had the power to do, but didn't.
Something something good men do nothing.
To be fair he wanted Jenrick as leader and is struggling with his loss
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Exactly. That's why means testing it was a sensible idea.
I have no problem with that but it should have been announced in the Autumn Statement with the impact assessment, and as it wasn't that is why it is coming under legal challenge
AFAICS the Maccabi fans were tearing down Palestinian flags and chanting about Gaza and then after the match groups (of Arabs presumably) ambushed their fans as they left the stadium.
So on the one hand it was footie fans being footie fans, while on the other, I'm not 100% sure how discriminate the "reprisal" attacks were. Probably not very much.
Plus to what extent was there pre-meditation in the attacks by the Arabs.
Several thousand years of premeditation. On both sides.
I think it's a canard to talk of "several thousand years" of Arab/Jewish conflict. Historically, there was more Christian anti-Semitism. The Arab-Jewish conflicts we are familiar with today only really go back to the late 19th century.
Hmmm. Yes and no. Yes, as in there was a hideous amount of anti-Jewish sentiment, actions and laws in Christian Europe before (say) 1800. And progress towards improving life for Jews in Europe was very slow after that. But progress was made.
But vast areas of what is now the Middle East were under Ottoman control. It can certainly be argued that Jews under Ottoman rule had it better than they did in Europe, at times. In the late 1400s the empire actually encouraged immigration from Jews who had been expelled from countries in Europe.
But the rights of Christians and Jews in the empire were repressed, and this repression of Jews increased as the Ottoman Empire started falling. The Ottoman Empire was anti-Semitic; just not as much as many countries in Europe. At times.
The situation reversed over the last two hundred years; conditions for Jews in most of Europe (1930s aside) *generally* improved. In the Middle East over the same period, their conditions got worse, especially as the Ottoman Empire started to disintegrate.
(How much of the decreasing openness of the Ottoman Empire to non-Muslims and foreigners was a symptom of the empire's fall, and how much a cause, is an interesting question.)
“1930s aside” is… um… something of an understatement.
I wasn't quite sure how to put that. I wanted to mention it, because it's such a glaring point, but also wanted to kind-of put it as an exception to what has generally been an equalisation of the rights of Jews in most of Europe since 1800.
Fair enough. I think the picture is more complicated. Rights for Jews in Western Europe improved from 1800, although there was still widespread antisemitism (e.g., opposition to Jewish refugees fleeing Nazi Germany). The situation in Eastern Europe was less clear cut.
Whichever, this all support my point that we shouldn’t uncritically view Arab/Jewish conflict as being *thousands* of years old.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
I am am not a rich pensioner by any means. Fixed income rots your standard of living.
That's a Labour majority of 46. Not sure FPTP can cope with a five (six in Scotland and Wales) party system. One more if you count the fringe left. A majority on 29% of the vote isn't sustainable, surely?
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
I am am not a rich pensioner by any means. Fixed income rots your standard of living.
Very true, but as BigG has, to his credit, pointed out on numerous occasions, the triple lock is silly. The logical end point of the guarantee, unless wage rises consistently exceed both 2.5% and the rate of inflation, is that workers' entire incomes will have to be confiscated in taxes to pay the state pension bill.
Something has to give. The pension should be pegged to wages and the rest of the guarantee should be binned.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
You simply have not read my posts if you think that
I have been against the triple lock for a long time and even in the last few days I posted that the triple lock should be changed to inflation plus 1%
And my reaction to the WFP is that it was badly implemented
I am a pensioner who does not need either but that does not stop me defending the millions of pensioners who do
That's a Labour majority of 46. Not sure FPTP can cope with a five (six in Scotland and Wales) party system. One more if you count the fringe left. A majority on 29% of the vote isn't sustainable, surely?
Roger Marks @RPMarks The fact that Trainline has become the default UK train ticket buying outlet is a very poor reflection on the rail industry. If you can't successfully undersell/out-advertise a third party retailer, then you might as well give up.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
You simply have not read my posts if you think that
I have been against the triple lock for a long time and even in the last few days I posted that the triple lock should be changed to inflation plus 1%
And my reaction to the WFP is that it was badly implemented
I am a pensioner who does not need either but that does not stop me defending the millions of pensioners who do
That is best done by arguing for an increase in pension credit rather than attacking Labour for taking a small step in your agreed direction.
Roger Marks @RPMarks The fact that Trainline has become the default UK train ticket buying outlet is a very poor reflection on the rail industry. If you can't successfully undersell/out-advertise a third party retailer, then you might as well give up.
Labour ought to have announced an effective end to the triple lock timetabled for the end of Parliament. They could have linked it to inflation. End of.
Another nettle that Reeves failed to grasp.
The dust from her budget has now settled, and the general sentiment is the Labour government is not interested in growth.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
You simply have not read my posts if you think that
I have been against the triple lock for a long time and even in the last few days I posted that the triple lock should be changed to inflation plus 1%
And my reaction to the WFP is that it was badly implemented
I am a pensioner who does not need either but that does not stop me defending the millions of pensioners who do
That is best done by arguing for an increase in pension credit rather than attacking Labour for taking a small step in your agreed direction.
This is Big G though, He only needs a whiff of curry, and he’s off.
Just had that Korean bbq that @Nigelb has been insisting I try!
He’s right. It’s much better in Korea than outside. Properly delicious if not as as good as the equivalent in Japan. Not as refined and delicate
This is true of all Korea as I’ve said. It is the unrefined Japan. It is the coca leaf or maybe the mambe coca powder to japan’s grade 1 Peruvian crystal flake
Are the Japanese as hospitable ? I found the Koreans (on the whole) extremely so.
In return, cheers for the recommendation if Travellers in the Third Reich. Fascinating.
On the modern understanding of fascism debate, which regularly surfaces here, I was intrigued to note that a British MP fought on the front in WWI; supported Franco in the Civil War; opposed appeasement; and advocated pretty well his whole life for a Jewish state in Palestine.
And died with Sikorski in the 1943 Gibraltar air crash.
Apart from the air crash that's not *that* far from Churchill, though none of it is quite in line.
But given Churchill, he may well have been on both sides of most of those at different times .
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
You simply have not read my posts if you think that
I have been against the triple lock for a long time and even in the last few days I posted that the triple lock should be changed to inflation plus 1%
And my reaction to the WFP is that it was badly implemented
I am a pensioner who does not need either but that does not stop me defending the millions of pensioners who do
That is best done by arguing for an increase in pension credit rather than attacking Labour for taking a small step in your agreed direction.
With respect I am not in the business of giving Labour a free pass on anything
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
You simply have not read my posts if you think that
I have been against the triple lock for a long time and even in the last few days I posted that the triple lock should be changed to inflation plus 1%
And my reaction to the WFP is that it was badly implemented
I am a pensioner who does not need either but that does not stop me defending the millions of pensioners who do
That is best done by arguing for an increase in pension credit rather than attacking Labour for taking a small step in your agreed direction.
With respect I am not in the business of giving Labour a free pass on anything
Thats fine but don't complain when people say you are just making partisan points if you just want to make partisan points!
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
This is absolutely true, though I don't remember anyone else suggesting that it was time it went.
How long it will take a future Government to admit that it is unaffordable, and what percentage of the budget will be eaten by the thing by the time they do, is anyone's guess.
Not entirely uncoincidentally, the major beneficiary of extra state spending - the NHS - spends most of its budget on the care of the elderly. Beneath the loud wails of protest about winter fuel payments, the state remains very pensioner focussed.
Just saw Sadiq Khan being questioned over the Kaba shooting and how it was that 6 months after the shooting when he must have known a lot of the backstory he was offering his sympathy for Kaba's family, 'a young life cut short' 'whole life ahead of him' etc.
Labour ought to have announced an effective end to the triple lock timetabled for the end of Parliament. They could have linked it to inflation. End of.
Another nettle that Reeves failed to grasp.
The dust from her budget has now settled, and the general sentiment is the Labour government is not interested in growth.
I'd go for wages. Linking the welfare of pensioners to the general wellbeing of the working population would sharpen minds somewhat.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
You simply have not read my posts if you think that
I have been against the triple lock for a long time and even in the last few days I posted that the triple lock should be changed to inflation plus 1%
And my reaction to the WFP is that it was badly implemented
I am a pensioner who does not need either but that does not stop me defending the millions of pensioners who do
That is best done by arguing for an increase in pension credit rather than attacking Labour for taking a small step in your agreed direction.
This is Big G though, He only needs a whiff of curry, and he’s off.
You said the same thing when I posted Sky's report on the Labour mp who has now been charged with common assault
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Serious Q: do you know where it is being funded from? Money intended for the NHS, perhaps?
My self-building colleagues in Scotland have had sore heads for years about the extra house-taxes they pay compared to England and Wales on the dwellings they sunk their blood and treasure into building.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
You simply have not read my posts if you think that
I have been against the triple lock for a long time and even in the last few days I posted that the triple lock should be changed to inflation plus 1%
And my reaction to the WFP is that it was badly implemented
I am a pensioner who does not need either but that does not stop me defending the millions of pensioners who do
That is best done by arguing for an increase in pension credit rather than attacking Labour for taking a small step in your agreed direction.
This is Big G though, He only needs a whiff of curry, and he’s off.
You said the same thing when I posted Sky's report on the Labour mp who has now been charged with common assault
Yes. And even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
You simply have not read my posts if you think that
I have been against the triple lock for a long time and even in the last few days I posted that the triple lock should be changed to inflation plus 1%
And my reaction to the WFP is that it was badly implemented
I am a pensioner who does not need either but that does not stop me defending the millions of pensioners who do
That is best done by arguing for an increase in pension credit rather than attacking Labour for taking a small step in your agreed direction.
With respect I am not in the business of giving Labour a free pass on anything
Thats fine but don't complain when people say you are just making partisan points if you just want to make partisan points!
This forum is full of posts doing exactly that to be fair !!!
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
I am am not a rich pensioner by any means. Fixed income rots your standard of living.
Very true, but as BigG has, to his credit, pointed out on numerous occasions, the triple lock is silly. The logical end point of the guarantee, unless wage rises consistently exceed both 2.5% and the rate of inflation, is that workers' entire incomes will have to be confiscated in taxes to pay the state pension bill.
Something has to give. The pension should be pegged to wages and the rest of the guarantee should be binned.
The theory of it was sound enough- the basic pension had drifted a long way from national prosperity (hence the genuine need for WFA in 1997), and the means-tested bit had become so ubiquitous that it was a disincentive to saving. So letting the basic pension float upwards a fair bit over a number of years was probably a sensible aim. When it was devised, did anyone talk about what conditions should cause the lock to be unlocked? Because that seems pretty important.
(The other problem is that, whenever it happens, a chunk of the media are going to go absolutely bezerk. Even broad consensus and a long leadin won't necessarily be enough.)
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Serious Q: do you know where it is being funded from? Money intended for the NHS, perhaps?
My self-building colleagues in Scotland have had sore heads for years about the extra house-taxes they pay compared to England and Wales on the dwellings they sunk their blood and treasure into building.
Significant consequentials from the budget. But the Scottish finances were looking quite tight anyway.
Just had that Korean bbq that @Nigelb has been insisting I try!
He’s right. It’s much better in Korea than outside. Properly delicious if not as as good as the equivalent in Japan. Not as refined and delicate
This is true of all Korea as I’ve said. It is the unrefined Japan. It is the coca leaf or maybe the mambe coca powder to japan’s grade 1 Peruvian crystal flake
Are the Japanese as hospitable ? I found the Koreans (on the whole) extremely so.
In return, cheers for the recommendation if Travellers in the Third Reich. Fascinating.
On the modern understanding of fascism debate, which regularly surfaces here, I was intrigued to note that a British MP fought on the front in WWI; supported Franco in the Civil War; opposed appeasement; and advocated pretty well his whole life for a Jewish state in Palestine.
And died with Sikorski in the 1943 Gibraltar air crash.
The Japanese are possibly even more hospitable. Great people
Honestly if you really enjoyed Korea (and it looks like you did) you MUST visit Japan which is much more interesting, strange, beautiful (cities aside), historical, diverse, compelling and very very cheap right now. And they have the best food in the world
I’m now planning my next Japanese sojourns in 2025. I want to see the far south and far north
Let us know what you find of the best places to visit on Hokkaido. Also on my list is Fukushima prefecture.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Serious Q: do you know where it is being funded from? Money intended for the NHS, perhaps?
My self-building colleagues in Scotland have had sore heads for years about the extra house-taxes they pay compared to England and Wales on the dwellings they sunk their blood and treasure into building.
Labour ought to have announced an effective end to the triple lock timetabled for the end of Parliament. They could have linked it to inflation. End of.
Another nettle that Reeves failed to grasp.
The dust from her budget has now settled, and the general sentiment is the Labour government is not interested in growth.
I'd go for wages. Linking the welfare of pensioners to the general wellbeing of the working population would sharpen minds somewhat.
CPI for breadline policies like UC.
Quite. A large part of the rationale for the Triple Lock was that pensioner incomes had been allowed to become eroded relative to those of workers. Peg to wages and, in future, everyone sinks or swims together.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
I am am not a rich pensioner by any means. Fixed income rots your standard of living.
Very true, but as BigG has, to his credit, pointed out on numerous occasions, the triple lock is silly. The logical end point of the guarantee, unless wage rises consistently exceed both 2.5% and the rate of inflation, is that workers' entire incomes will have to be confiscated in taxes to pay the state pension bill.
Something has to give. The pension should be pegged to wages and the rest of the guarantee should be binned.
The theory of it was sound enough- the basic pension had drifted a long way from national prosperity (hence the genuine need for WFA in 1997), and the means-tested bit had become so ubiquitous that it was a disincentive to saving. So letting the basic pension float upwards a fair bit over a number of years was probably a sensible aim. When it was devised, did anyone talk about what conditions should cause the lock to be unlocked? Because that seems pretty important.
(The other problem is that, whenever it happens, a chunk of the media are going to go absolutely bezerk. Even broad consensus and a long leadin won't necessarily be enough.)
The media will go berserk whatever you do.
The thing to do is to lead with conviction. Even the village idiot knows that the triple lock is unaffordable in the long run.
You can also go the Trump route, and actively call out the media for being idiots. In fact, Britain could do with some of that. The media class *are* idiotic in the main.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
You simply have not read my posts if you think that
I have been against the triple lock for a long time and even in the last few days I posted that the triple lock should be changed to inflation plus 1%
And my reaction to the WFP is that it was badly implemented
I am a pensioner who does not need either but that does not stop me defending the millions of pensioners who do
That is best done by arguing for an increase in pension credit rather than attacking Labour for taking a small step in your agreed direction.
With respect I am not in the business of giving Labour a free pass on anything
Thats fine but don't complain when people say you are just making partisan points if you just want to make partisan points!
This forum is full of posts doing exactly that to be fair !!!
Would you have given Labour a "free pass" if they scrapped the triple lock or used it to make partisan points? You freely admit its always the latter yet have a go at the poster pointing it out. Pointless. Anyway, enough from me.
Just had that Korean bbq that @Nigelb has been insisting I try!
He’s right. It’s much better in Korea than outside. Properly delicious if not as as good as the equivalent in Japan. Not as refined and delicate
This is true of all Korea as I’ve said. It is the unrefined Japan. It is the coca leaf or maybe the mambe coca powder to japan’s grade 1 Peruvian crystal flake
Are the Japanese as hospitable ? I found the Koreans (on the whole) extremely so.
In return, cheers for the recommendation if Travellers in the Third Reich. Fascinating.
On the modern understanding of fascism debate, which regularly surfaces here, I was intrigued to note that a British MP fought on the front in WWI; supported Franco in the Civil War; opposed appeasement; and advocated pretty well his whole life for a Jewish state in Palestine.
And died with Sikorski in the 1943 Gibraltar air crash.
The Japanese are possibly even more hospitable. Great people
Honestly if you really enjoyed Korea (and it looks like you did) you MUST visit Japan which is much more interesting, strange, beautiful (cities aside), historical, diverse, compelling and very very cheap right now. And they have the best food in the world
I’m now planning my next Japanese sojourns in 2025. I want to see the far south and far north
Let us know what you find of the best places to visit on Hokkaido. Also on my list is Fukushima prefecture.
My guide in Hida Furakawa - mentioned weirdly in this Spectator article - was from Fukushima. Young man but still recalled it all - the tsunami and the nuke meltdown
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
I am am not a rich pensioner by any means. Fixed income rots your standard of living.
Very true, but as BigG has, to his credit, pointed out on numerous occasions, the triple lock is silly. The logical end point of the guarantee, unless wage rises consistently exceed both 2.5% and the rate of inflation, is that workers' entire incomes will have to be confiscated in taxes to pay the state pension bill.
Something has to give. The pension should be pegged to wages and the rest of the guarantee should be binned.
That is the reducto ad wossname but we are a long way off spending our whole tax take on pensions just yet. As things stand, our pensions are low compared with our peers. Another pension cost, rarely mentioned by the well-paid pundits who benefit from it, is higher rate tax relief on contributions.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
And that's one of those problems that's much easier to state than to solve.
How do you win back a decent slice of the Reform vote without losing even more centrists? How do you then tack back to the centre without losing those Reformers again?
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
And that's one of those problems that's much easier to state than to solve.
How do you win back a decent slice of the Reform vote without losing even more centrists? How do you then tack back to the centre without losing those Reformers again?
Anyone who can untie that knot deserves to be PM.
The unsatisfying answer is do very little and hope Labour screw up and/or the economy tanks.
Trees tend to be good at carbon capture and storage -- especially if you cut them regularly, and plant new ones in their places.
It depends what happens to the tree after it is cut down. Over a long enough time horizon - a couple of hundred years, say - one way or another most of the carbon in wood will return to the atmosphere. Trees are part of the natural carbon cycle.
One of the slightly better ideas for carbon capture and storage has been to capture the carbon dioxide released when burning wood in power stations and bury that underground. If you could be confident the cartoon dioxide would stay underground, and that the tree plantations weren't releasing carbon from the soil, then they would be carbon negative.
But there's quite a few steps in the process, you need to use a lot of land for it, and it might end up cheaper to make some more solar panels and use the electricity on some process to directly remove carbon dioxide from the air.
This is a good post.
Where it goes is critical to timber. Growing timber will sequestrate for the active life of the tree, which is between one decade (eg coppicing) and perhaps 30 or 40 decades (eg field grown beech), depending - and the amount of carbon captured has an inverse trend to rate of capture, and to duration.
Putting it in modern timber frame buildings will give an extra 50 years or so. Putting it in biomass energy will release it back essentially immediately.
The most hopeful preservative methods are around things like peat bog restoration. In the UK we have been pioneering on that since the 1990s, and there is much potential.
Here's quite an interesting video about "The World's Biggest Permafrost Crater", which Youtube threw at me, about how a cracking in the permafrost has grown to several square km in only a few decades.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
What platform allows the Conservatives to win back populist right votes and the wealthy seats they lost to the Liberal Democrats at the same time?
What I guess we could now call the Yellow Wall is relatively less impacted by cost of living struggles and is disinterested in or actively repelled by culture wars attacks on minority groups. The rump Tories have their work cut out, but we knew that.
Labour ought to have announced an effective end to the triple lock timetabled for the end of Parliament. They could have linked it to inflation. End of.
Another nettle that Reeves failed to grasp.
The dust from her budget has now settled, and the general sentiment is the Labour government is not interested in growth.
They are interested in talking about it endlessly though.
Then kicking the private sector in the balls. Over and over again.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
And that's one of those problems that's much easier to state than to solve.
How do you win back a decent slice of the Reform vote without losing even more centrists? How do you then tack back to the centre without losing those Reformers again?
Anyone who can untie that knot deserves to be PM.
I think there is messaging that is attractive to both more RefUK-minded and more centrist-minded voters: making work pay, respecting British values, supporting business and innovation, levelling up, etc. You can do all that and attract people back without having to pander to the leave-the-ECHR sentiment or suddenly declare you love Europe. But the main thing the Tories need to do is to demonstrate competence, something voters from across the spectrum find attractive, and that will take time.
Roger Marks @RPMarks The fact that Trainline has become the default UK train ticket buying outlet is a very poor reflection on the rail industry. If you can't successfully undersell/out-advertise a third party retailer, then you might as well give up.
I always use my TFW app for tickets
I have a split ticketing app, although when I went down to Cornwall in the summer it wasn't very helpful and I worked out a cheaper split myself.
I usually use the National Rail app, which directs you to the train company website, although I often just use it to work out routes and fares and buy from the station ticket machine. I have never used The Trainline because it certainly used to charge a commission, not sure if it still does.
Interesting stat from the three Aberdeenshire by-elections all won by the Tories
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
40% back from reform feels about right for the Tories anyway, if that was replicated at the GE it puts the Tories on ~30% rather than 24% they got. This is what's available to Kemi on the right which means the extra 7-8% she needs to get for a majority comes from the centre. I hope she realises this.
For an outright Tory majority yes but if Reform eat further into the Labour vote she could have the chance of forming a confidence and supply deal with Reform in a hung parliament if the Tories win most seats even if still short of a majority
Labour ought to have announced an effective end to the triple lock timetabled for the end of Parliament. They could have linked it to inflation. End of.
Another nettle that Reeves failed to grasp.
The dust from her budget has now settled, and the general sentiment is the Labour government is not interested in growth.
I'd go for wages. Linking the welfare of pensioners to the general wellbeing of the working population would sharpen minds somewhat.
CPI for breadline policies like UC.
Quite. A large part of the rationale for the Triple Lock was that pensioner incomes had been allowed to become eroded relative to those of workers. Peg to wages and, in future, everyone sinks or swims together.
Ironically, I think that was the historical position before Mrs Thatcher broke the link in the early 1980s. Though TBF the historical link was only installed in the 1970s.
Isn't that the seat our own @RochdalePioneers stood for the Lib Dems ?
Only part of Central Buchan (a council ward) is in ANME.
But that doesn't answer my question as I thought he stood in that by election yesterday
Ah, I didn't realise!
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
Our Scottish family are very close to us and it seems that they were very angry over WFP and will no doubt be pleased with the SNP who clearly see this as a political win
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
It's very much in line with SNP political philosophy - high rates of tax and freebies for rich people.
Not all pensioners are rich by a long way
Time for our regular reminder that the average pensioner enjoys a higher disposable income than the average worker, after accounting for housing costs; that the crossing point was already reached several years ago; and that the one-way ratchet of the triple lock mechanism means that the gap must, necessarily, continue to grow.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
It is Labour who have guaranteed the triple lock for the entire parliament which is simply ridiculous
You'd have been furious if they'd abolished it if your reaction to WFP is anything to go by.
I am am not a rich pensioner by any means. Fixed income rots your standard of living.
Very true, but as BigG has, to his credit, pointed out on numerous occasions, the triple lock is silly. The logical end point of the guarantee, unless wage rises consistently exceed both 2.5% and the rate of inflation, is that workers' entire incomes will have to be confiscated in taxes to pay the state pension bill.
Something has to give. The pension should be pegged to wages and the rest of the guarantee should be binned.
The theory of it was sound enough- the basic pension had drifted a long way from national prosperity (hence the genuine need for WFA in 1997), and the means-tested bit had become so ubiquitous that it was a disincentive to saving. So letting the basic pension float upwards a fair bit over a number of years was probably a sensible aim. When it was devised, did anyone talk about what conditions should cause the lock to be unlocked? Because that seems pretty important.
(The other problem is that, whenever it happens, a chunk of the media are going to go absolutely bezerk. Even broad consensus and a long leadin won't necessarily be enough.)
Ending the triple lock is probably something that will never happen unless both main parties agree on it.
Comments
In all 3, only 38% of the Reform vote was redistributed to the Tories. So 62% of Refirm voters won’t back the Tories even as a vote transfer.
As we keep saying, the Reform vote is not a Tory vote.
Reform take 10% off the Tories and 7% off Labour and end up on 32%.
Tories on 8 seats. Job done.
https://archive.ph/vwKnW
It's analysis is that Taiwan's energy prices have escalated so seriously in the last year because of an overdependence on gas and oil, and that their strategy to mitigate involves rapid and heavy investment in wind power
@BallotBoxScot
Mearns (Aberdeenshire) by-election, first preferences:
Con: 1347 (39.2%, +7.5)
SNP: 832 (24.2%, -4.8)
LD: 745 (21.7%, +15.2)
RUK: 375 (10.9%, new)
Grn: 136 (4%, +0.6)
(2022 non returns: Inds 10.8%, 8.9%, 1.3%, Lab 5.8%, Alba 1.7%, Family 0.9%)
Conservative elected stage 4.
But absolutely there can be a pathway out of violence and it takes courage to step back from the latest round of retaliation to try to achieve this. Could Israel have responded differently to the attacks of Oct 7th? Many in the west were supportive up to a point, but then revulsed by what looks very like an attempt to destroy Gaza completely. Did that need to happen?
One of the slightly better ideas for carbon capture and storage has been to capture the carbon dioxide released when burning wood in power stations and bury that underground. If you could be confident the cartoon dioxide would stay underground, and that the tree plantations weren't releasing carbon from the soil, then they would be carbon negative.
But there's quite a few steps in the process, you need to use a lot of land for it, and it might end up cheaper to make some more solar panels and use the electricity on some process to directly remove carbon dioxide from the air.
Even on last night's local by elections in England and Scotland the Tories beat Reform in more seats where they stood than Reform beat the Tories. Reform cannot beat Labour without Tory support anymore than the Tories cannot beat Labour without Reform support. See the Blackpool result where Labour won on just 31.5% with the Tories and Reform combined on 53%
Sometime before 7am, I think, as I was driving to work.
Btw, looks like the Socialist Gerontocratic Republic of Scotland is going to retain PAWHP (Gaelic for WFP). I expect you'll be moving up here shortly (and perhaps joining the SNP?)
I found the Koreans (on the whole) extremely so.
In return, cheers for the recommendation if Travellers in the Third Reich. Fascinating.
On the modern understanding of fascism debate, which regularly surfaces here, I was intrigued to note that a British MP fought on the front in WWI; supported Franco in the Civil War; opposed appeasement; and advocated pretty well his whole life for a Jewish state in Palestine.
And died with Sikorski in the 1943 Gibraltar air crash.
For full info, of those that transferred, 66% did indeed redistribute to the Tories. My quick maths:
613 to Con
211 to SNP
117 to LD
674 didn't transfer to anyone.
https://x.com/FrankLuntz/status/1854624831376896457
As we have lived in Wales for nearly 60 years we will not be returning to Scotland though it has a special place in our hearts
And I would not join the SNP anyway
And Bibi and Trump and whoever are the latest survivors to the mantle of Hezbollah and Hamas do not look like those peacemakers.
65.8% to Conservatives
22.7% to SNP
11.5% to LD
Maybe that tells a different story.
Which is kind of consistent with the model of Con-to-Ref movers. Some can, if push comes to shove, be attracted back to the Conservatives for fear of something worse. But about as many are just as cross with the Tories as they are with everyone else. If they can't have Nigel, they don't want nobody, baby.
Honestly if you really enjoyed Korea (and it looks like you did) you MUST visit Japan which is much more interesting, strange, beautiful (cities aside), historical, diverse, compelling and very very cheap right now. And they have the best food in the world
I’m now planning my next Japanese sojourns in 2025. I want to see the far south and far north
However as stated earlier the main swing since the GE is Labour to Reform, the Tory vote virtually unchanged
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1854864483631432106?t=XHi2ROYpIUOtEKXLjCFalA&s=19
It's an awkard echo of what has played out Stateside over the last eighteen months. Colour me pink and call me Susan, but I don't think many of the higher-ups in the Republican Party really want Trump or MAGA. Partly because he has shoved them aside, and partly becuase they know that this is likely to be a hot mess. But they couldn't see a way of winning if they squashed him- which they totally had the power to do, but didn't.
Something something good men do nothing.
Given also the large and growing proportion of the populace that consists of the retired, the problem with the abolition of universal winter fuel handouts wasn't that it was too harsh. It was that it didn't go far enough.
Whichever, this all support my point that we shouldn’t uncritically view Arab/Jewish conflict as being *thousands* of years old.
Not sure FPTP can cope with a five (six in Scotland and Wales) party system. One more if you count the fringe left.
A majority on 29% of the vote isn't sustainable, surely?
Something has to give. The pension should be pegged to wages and the rest of the guarantee should be binned.
I have been against the triple lock for a long time and even in the last few days I posted that the triple lock should be changed to inflation plus 1%
And my reaction to the WFP is that it was badly implemented
I am a pensioner who does not need either but that does not stop me defending the millions of pensioners who do
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/maybe-the-horse-will-learn-to-sing.265882/
https://x.com/RPMarks/status/1854663024050585621
Roger Marks
@RPMarks
The fact that Trainline has become the default UK train ticket buying outlet is a very poor reflection on the rail industry. If you can't successfully undersell/out-advertise a third party retailer, then you might as well give up.
Another nettle that Reeves failed to grasp.
The dust from her budget has now settled, and the general sentiment is the Labour government is not interested in growth.
He only needs a whiff of curry, and he’s off.
But given Churchill, he may well have been on both sides of most of those at different times
On balance, that seems like a good thing right now.
How long it will take a future Government to admit that it is unaffordable, and what percentage of the budget will be eaten by the thing by the time they do, is anyone's guess.
Not entirely uncoincidentally, the major beneficiary of extra state spending - the NHS - spends most of its budget on the care of the elderly. Beneath the loud wails of protest about winter fuel payments, the state remains very pensioner focussed.
CPI for breadline policies like UC.
My self-building colleagues in Scotland have had sore heads for years about the extra house-taxes they pay compared to England and Wales on the dwellings they sunk their blood and treasure into building.
Techne finds Labour down to 29%, the Tories on 25% with Reform on 18% and the LDs on 13% and Greens on 7%
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/kemi-badenoch-poll-tory-leader-b2643357.html
After very poor results in England, the four wins in Scotland will be a welcome relief.
Reform probably happiest out of all the parties from the votes yesterday.
(The other problem is that, whenever it happens, a chunk of the media are going to go absolutely bezerk. Even broad consensus and a long leadin won't necessarily be enough.)
Also on my list is Fukushima prefecture.
The thing to do is to lead with conviction. Even the village idiot knows that the triple lock is unaffordable in the long run.
You can also go the Trump route, and actively call out the media for being idiots. In fact, Britain could do with some of that. The media class *are* idiotic in the main.
I think we all know what needs to be done. And, in the end, it will now be done
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-glimpse-into-a-childless-world/
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/understanding-bidens-exit-and-the-2024-election-the-state-presidential-approvalstate-economy-model/90DA5291682CEA6BDA943208C0E7E649
That it was possible to forecast, with exact precision 100 days before the election, which states would fall to the GOP, I'd say not all that much.
Every campaign makes mistakes and flubs. It's just that they get ignored if you win, and scrutinised ad nauseam when you lose.
How do you win back a decent slice of the Reform vote without losing even more centrists? How do you then tack back to the centre without losing those Reformers again?
Anyone who can untie that knot deserves to be PM.
Where it goes is critical to timber. Growing timber will sequestrate for the active life of the tree, which is between one decade (eg coppicing) and perhaps 30 or 40 decades (eg field grown beech), depending - and the amount of carbon captured has an inverse trend to rate of capture, and to duration.
Putting it in modern timber frame buildings will give an extra 50 years or so. Putting it in biomass energy will release it back essentially immediately.
The most hopeful preservative methods are around things like peat bog restoration. In the UK we have been pioneering on that since the 1990s, and there is much potential.
Here's quite an interesting video about "The World's Biggest Permafrost Crater", which Youtube threw at me, about how a cracking in the permafrost has grown to several square km in only a few decades.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FU0dzsvelw
What I guess we could now call the Yellow Wall is relatively less impacted by cost of living struggles and is disinterested in or actively repelled by culture wars attacks on minority groups. The rump Tories have their work cut out, but we knew that.
Then kicking the private sector in the balls. Over and over again.
I usually use the National Rail app, which directs you to the train company website, although I often just use it to work out routes and fares and buy from the station ticket machine. I have never used The Trainline because it certainly used to charge a commission, not sure if it still does.
Perpetual pensions are interesting. The one granted to Lord Nelson continued to be paid to his successors until 1951. That was a new one on me.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pensions_in_the_United_Kingdom