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The Ayrshire hotelier is running scared – politicalbetting.com

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,734
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Guardian, BBC, Telegraph, etc - multiple screeds on the awful far right thugs. And there has been some awful far right thuggery - no question. It needs vehement calling out

    But not a single fucking mention of the many many videos of Muslims with machetes, of white people being brutalised, of the police offer politely asking Muslims to “please leave your weapons at the mosque”

    This just won’t do. I don’t simply mean it’s wrong or bad I mean it is stupidly counterproductive. Anyone with half a brain can find this stuff on social media and will then ask: why aren’t they showing me THIS???

    And thus the corrosion of trust continues

    Certainly useful for those pushing the TwoTierKeir hashtag.
    Within a year Starmer could be less popular than Truss. Despite their majority, I think this will be a feeble clueless one term Labour govt
    Nah, because the Tories are about to elect an even bigger numpty, one of the ones who ran down our country over the last decade.

    The Tories have to treble their seats to form a majority government, so pace yourself. We get nearly a decade of starmer
    Oppositions don't win, Governments fail. That's how we got an adenoidal charisma-vacuum like SKS. The Tories just have to exist, have a few decent policies, sort something out with Reform (just before the election). Goodbye Labour for another 15 years. Please don't write.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,734

    DM_Andy said:



    darkage said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Donna Jones's statement about the riots. She's the police and crime commissioner for Hampshire and the Isle of Wight, elected with 68% of the vote after transfers.

    https://x.com/prwhittle/status/1819858575587700885

    It is an insightful statement, if a bit clumsy. The problem with the 'tough/zero tolerance' option, ie repeating the 2011 approach, is that it did not apply to the BLM riots in 2020, which were basically supported by the 'establishment' at the time, with the police kneeling down before the participants, Sir Keir Starmer kneeling down in pictures, labour politicians actually breaking the law to join the protests, and promoting that they were doing so on social media. So, what you actually have, is one approach towards rioting where the group is supported by the establishment, and another where the group is disliked by the establishment. It is very easy for the 'far right' to communicate this via memes. They can use this to expand their appeal, as they are doing already. Farage is also good at communicating this with his Trump style addresses and he has the skill and experience to keep appropriate separation from those involved in the rioting.

    No one wants this, but I am afraid it is nearly inevitable. Douglas Murray and countless others (who have been unfairly dismissed themselves as 'far right') have been warning about it for the past decade. Because there is widespread support for resolution of the underlying issues, ie immigration and integration, the instinctive approach on the part of the government 'to 'crack down', round people up, send them to prison, outlaw it, make it hate speech' will not work and instead just inflame the problem, which will be very skilfully exploited by the opposition to the government, which includes people like Farage and Anderson who are there to rock the boat.

    There's a bit of rewriting history here by you calling them "BLM riots", the vast majority of demonstrations in 2020 were completely peaceful. When they weren't, the police didn't take the knee but the thugs responsible were arrested. If a group wanted to demonstrate their opposition to children being stabbed to death then why wouldn't the Establishment support that. But that's not what the far-right want to do is it.

    There was a vigil in Southport for the poor girls who were brutally murdered. It passed off entirely peacefully because those who attended were there to express their grief and their horror and to show their love and support for the families affected. Then the far-right moved in.
    Quite.
    This is largely just an outburst of hatred against minorities in general, rather than an organised "protest" on immigration.
    The attacker in the Southport atrocity wasn't an immigrant.
    Unless the definition has changed, wasn't he a second generation immigrant?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    The irony is that the small boats story was that it started as a story about the peril of the people on the boats.

    It was later hijacked by Sunak who put stopping them at the centre of his mission and instead of it being about the unfortunate people on the boats he turned it into an invasion by dangerous people.

    He then through various Home Secretaries with ambitions exaggerated the danger until it became central to our survival that we despatched them with great urgency and to somewhere far away.

    We are all now reaping what he sowed. Anyone that arrived in Liverpool Sunderland or Newcastle came a very long way round. These looters and rioters have no interest in politics Right wing or otherwise. They've just been energised by a very stupid and thoughless campaign by the last government. Let's hope Starmer can bring back a bit of sense to this country

    Dan Hannan in todays Torygraph

    "The street violence would be disgraceful at any time, let alone in the aftermath of such an unspeakable tragedy. I hoped Sir Keir would pose as an uncomplicated upholder of the King’s peace, and demand zero tolerance for disorder of any kind.....

    Instead, he seemed to suggest that the problem was not just the violence, but the fact that protesters were “far Right”.... He did not mention the machete violence in Southend, or the violence against police in Manchester, or the disorder that has accompanied anti-Israel protests.

    Some might conclude that Starmer is more upset by the motivation of rioters and vandals than by their behaviour. After all, during the summer of 2020, when anti-lockdown protests were suppressed while Black Lives Matter protests were tolerated, he took the knee."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/03/labour-is-proving-to-be-far-far-worse-than-anyone-feared/

    I would have thought if the demos are about hatred towards immigrants (ie far right) that would be what the Prime minister would concentrate on.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,734
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Ending Freedom of Movement caused a spike in immigration

    Eventually the boneheads who voted for it will put the pieces together, but not any day soon...

    Government policy is what caused a spike in immigration.
    Not saying you're wrong but what policy specifically? What are the specific policy decisions where the last government could reasonably have done X and got low immigration, but instead they did Y and got high immigration?
    Oh it’s a long list.

    Salary threshold for work visa could have been much higher.
    Students should not be allowed to bring dependents with them.
    List of ‘shortage’ occupations is too long.
    Marriage visas should be a lot more difficult to obtain, especially in the case of arranged marriages, and should be subject to cultural and language tests.
    First cousin marriages should not be eligible (if they are). Treated the resulting disorders in the poor kids is a major drain on the NHS.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,090
    edited August 10
    viewcode said:

    +++ BETTING POST +++

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    It's too early and I should have waited until the Veep pick. But it was a nice warm Saturday and I thought: "why not". We will find out in 94 days...

    #bigboypants

    Following my post of https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4920016/#Comment_4920016 above, I have today August 10th placed another bet, this time of £60 on Kamala Harris for POTUS at 5/6 from Betfred. If she wins my returns will be £110, a profit of £50. If she loses my returns will be £0, a loss will be £60.

    My total stakes from the two bets is £110. If she wins I get £215, a profit of £105. If she loses I get £0, a loss of £110.

    Both bets were proof-of-concept, as it was the first time I used the betting shop's automatic betting machines, which require no human interaction. This is ideal for me, as it retains the advantages of in-shop betting (travel time imposing a period of reflection) without the disadvantages (having to talk to a person).

    I will now pause for a bit and Do The Research as to whether it is worth me shovelling money in. I will let you know what happens.

    #bigboypants
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,090

    darkage said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.

    I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.

    Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.

    A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.

    I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.

    I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.

    Do I expect it to do so?

    No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.

    So let's do as you suggest. What are the solutions that you would like the government to take on board. How do you encourage better integration?

    This might surprise you, but I think Tony Blair and David Blunkett took some good steps with the citizenship test and British Values in the last Labour administration.

    I'd like to build on that. I think we should dial back on the "community leaders" and faith schools stuff, and I'd like to lead with more celebration of Britishness and its positive aspects in schools. Less identity politics. More sport and historical dramas. More intervention by the authorities when they see problems in families and communities, whatever their background. More honesty. Prevent needs an overhaul. Prepare for some fights over "that's our culture"; sorry, the line needs to be drawn somewhere.

    The boats must stop. If that requires the Royal Navy to intervene, and modifications to the HRA and the jurisdiction of ECtHR rulings in some areas, then so be it. Deportations must accelerate and be swift and unappealable.

    I also think international treaties on asylum and migration should be rewritten and Starmer could usefully initiate this as a self-proclaimed Internationalist.
    You don't have to modify the HRA nor the ECtHR. Just ensure that the military justice system can't pass up to the UK Supreme Court but tops out at the NSC or a Cabinet member. That way refugees intercepted before landfall cannot invoke rights (because they were never under UK jurisdiction) and can be transferred to any country that will take them without lawyers getting involved. It's easier to deport people if they were never imported.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,734
    Actually @TimS, I have thought of an alternative explanation for Patel's volte face on immigration - she knows she's not going to make it, and SKS is going to give her some sort of 'all the talents' czar job to embarrass the Tories. In particular her hard line against NF (when there was a total love in between them at the Tory conference) seems very discordant and in-line with the SKS mission to deligitimise the hard right.
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