Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
Errh isn't the rallying call of the mob that Starmer is two tier in how he deals with criminals. They don't think he is a lefty lawyer that goes easy on everybody, they believe he goes easy only on certain groups.
The police are being a little disingenuous. The video people were highlighting, the guy was assaulted after throwing rocks at a group of Asians. There were various claims of how he got those injuries ranging from being hit back with rocks to being stabbed. There are also multiple videos of a gang of Asians running around armed with knives, and they kicked the shit out of multiple other people. The police were also recorded saying to this gang, come on, no weapons, leave them back at the mosque.
So the police going well nothing to see here, is not quite true.
Rubbish.
Put simply: the reports of a stabbing were wrong, and could only inflame the situation. I take those who spread it as wanting to inflame the situation.
Also, how sure are you that those videos were contemporaneous and showed what was claimed? On plenty of occasions piccies and videos spread online are either fake, or show other events. Yet they were immediately taken at face value, and taken to show the worst possible (and wrong) take: that a stabbing had happened.
The 'stabbing' myth was a lie, spread by people who wanted more trouble.
The police are being a little disingenuous. The video people were highlighting, the guy was assaulted after throwing rocks at a group of Asians. There were various claims of how he got those injuries ranging from being hit back with rocks to being stabbed. There are also multiple videos of a gang of Asians running around armed with knives, and they kicked the shit out of multiple other people. The police were also recorded saying to this gang, come on, no weapons, leave them back at the mosque.
So the police going well nothing to see here, is not quite true.
Rubbish.
Put simply: the reports of a stabbing were wrong, and could only inflame the situation. I take those who spread it as wanting to inflame the situation.
Also, how sure are you that those videos were contemporaneous and showed what was claimed? On plenty of occasions piccies and videos spread online are either fake, or show other events. Yet they were immediately taken at face value, and taken to show the worst possible (and wrong) take: that a stabbing had happened.
The 'stabbing' myth was a lie, spread by people who wanted more trouble.
In terms of a gang of armed Asians. There are multiple videos from throughout the day from multiple angles from multiple locations from multiple sources including live streams.
It is why some people on social media jumped to the conclusion the guy had been stabbed. Obviously the rabble rousers want to put the worst spin on it to inflame things more. My point was at the same time the police are being a bit disingenuous, as it makes it sound like nothing really happened.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
Errh isn't the rallying call of the mob that Starmer is two tier in how he deals with criminals. They don't think he is a lefty lawyer that goes easy on everybody, they believe he goes easy only on certain groups.
Yes, that is the far-right's claim. He has been in office for four weeks. We can now start to judge whether that is the case. I'd also take a look at the profile of those charged and prosecuted after the riots in 2011.
Donna Jones's statement about the riots. She's the police and crime commissioner for Hampshire and the Isle of Wight, elected with 68% of the vote after transfers.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
Quite possibly, but you need to think more than five minutes in to the future.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
Errh isn't the rallying call of the mob that Starmer is two tier in how he deals with criminals. They don't think he is a lefty lawyer that goes easy on everybody, they believe he goes easy only on certain groups.
Yes, that is the far-right's claim. He has been in office for four weeks. We can now start to judge whether that is the case. I'd also take a look at the profile of those charged and prosecuted after the riots in 2011.
I don't believe that. But my point was the knuckle draggers do already think that, there is no selling a pup, and him going hard on them (which he should) won't be a shock and play in their minds into claims of two tier approach.
Donna Jones's statement about the riots. She's the police and crime commissioner for Hampshire and the Isle of Wight, elected with 68% of the vote after transfers.
It is an insightful statement, if a bit clumsy. The problem with the 'tough/zero tolerance' option, ie repeating the 2011 approach, is that it did not apply to the BLM riots in 2020, which were basically supported by the 'establishment' at the time, with the police kneeling down before the participants, Sir Keir Starmer kneeling down in pictures, labour politicians actually breaking the law to join the protests, and promoting that they were doing so on social media. So, what you actually have, is one approach towards rioting where the group is supported by the establishment, and another where the group is disliked by the establishment. It is very easy for the 'far right' to communicate this via memes. They can use this to expand their appeal, as they are doing already. Farage is also good at communicating this with his Trump style addresses and he has the skill and experience to keep appropriate separation from those involved in the rioting.
No one wants this, but I am afraid it is nearly inevitable. Douglas Murray and countless others (who have been unfairly dismissed themselves as 'far right') have been warning about it for the past decade. Because there is widespread support for resolution of the underlying issues, ie immigration and integration, the instinctive approach on the part of the government 'to 'crack down', round people up, send them to prison, outlaw it, make it hate speech' will not work and instead just inflame the problem, which will be very skilfully exploited by the opposition to the government, which includes people like Farage and Anderson who are there to rock the boat.
And "Robinson", who's there to blow up the boat.
Nothing will happen. People like SKS and their followers are totally and utterly temperamentally incapable of engaging with this issue, and nor do they want to do so - in any way.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
Errh isn't the rallying call of the mob that Starmer is two tier in how he deals with criminals. They don't think he is a lefty lawyer that goes easy on everybody, they believe he goes easy only on certain groups.
Yes, that is the far-right's claim. He has been in office for four weeks. We can now start to judge whether that is the case. I'd also take a look at the profile of those charged and prosecuted after the riots in 2011.
He's been LOTO for a lot longer, it's his attitude over several years that is being jiudged
The police are being a little disingenuous. The video people were highlighting, the guy was assaulted after throwing rocks at a group of Asians. There were various claims of how he got those injuries ranging from being hit back with rocks to being stabbed. There are also multiple videos of a gang of Asians running around armed with knives, and they kicked the shit out of multiple other people. The police were also recorded saying to this gang, come on, no weapons, leave them back at the mosque.
So the police going well nothing to see here, is not quite true.
Rubbish.
Put simply: the reports of a stabbing were wrong, and could only inflame the situation. I take those who spread it as wanting to inflame the situation.
Also, how sure are you that those videos were contemporaneous and showed what was claimed? On plenty of occasions piccies and videos spread online are either fake, or show other events. Yet they were immediately taken at face value, and taken to show the worst possible (and wrong) take: that a stabbing had happened.
The 'stabbing' myth was a lie, spread by people who wanted more trouble.
In terms of a gang of armed Asians. There are multiple videos from throughout the day from multiple angles from multiple locations from multiple sources including live streams.
It is why some people on social media jumped to the conclusion the guy had been stabbed. Obviously the rabble rousers want to put the worst spin on it to inflame things more. My point was at the same time the police are being a bit disingenuous, as it makes it sound like nothing really happened.
I refer you to my previous post. There is zero excuse for going from some random videos showing stuff alleged to be happening right now, to jizzing over the 'fact' (sorry, lie) someone had been stabbed.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
Errh isn't the rallying call of the mob that Starmer is two tier in how he deals with criminals. They don't think he is a lefty lawyer that goes easy on everybody, they believe he goes easy only on certain groups.
Yes, that is the far-right's claim. He has been in office for four weeks. We can now start to judge whether that is the case. I'd also take a look at the profile of those charged and prosecuted after the riots in 2011.
He's been LOTO for a lot longer, it's his attitude over several years that is being jiudged
Well now we will see if those doing the judging are correct. Is Starmer the lefty lawyer his critics on the right claim him to be or is he the bloke that the left hates because of the way he dealt with lawbreakers drawn largely from ethnic minorities after the riots of 2011?
A federal judge presiding over the election subversion case against Donald Trump has rejected efforts from his legal team to dismiss the indictment on grounds that the former president was prosecuted for vindictive and political purposes...
In their motion to dismiss the indictment, defence lawyers argued that Trump was mistreated because he was prosecuted even though others who have challenged election results have avoided criminal charges.
But Chutkan rejected both arguments, saying Trump was not charged simply for challenging election results but instead for “knowingly making false statements in furtherance of criminal conspiracies and for obstruction of election certification proceedings.”
She also said that his lawyers had misread news media articles that they had cited in arguing that the prosecution was political in nature...
Chutkan has scheduled a status conference for 16 August, to discuss the next steps in the case.
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
Errh isn't the rallying call of the mob that Starmer is two tier in how he deals with criminals. They don't think he is a lefty lawyer that goes easy on everybody, they believe he goes easy only on certain groups.
Yes, that is the far-right's claim. He has been in office for four weeks. We can now start to judge whether that is the case. I'd also take a look at the profile of those charged and prosecuted after the riots in 2011.
He's been LOTO for a lot longer, it's his attitude over several years that is being jiudged
Well now we will see if those doing the judging are correct. Is Starmer the lefty lawyer his critics on the right claim him to be or is he the bloke that the left hates because of the way he dealt with lawbreakers drawn largely from ethnic minorities after the riots of 2011?
That wouldnt be the criteria to judge him on. It's how many more laws does he pass to restrict the average citizen and does he provide one law for all or the misapplication of law to favoured groups,
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
So let's do as you suggest. What are the solutions that you would like the government to take on board. How do you encourage better integration?
The Wikipedia page for the 2020 protests makes interesting reading. Due to COVID, I had not realised how widespread or well organized most of it was. There are clearly a few cases of the usual suspects causing criminal damage and a few assaults (largely in London).
Things don't really kick off until Tommy Robinson's thugs start to get involved, using graffiti on war memorials as the excuse.
The single worst incident is the one where the rally is cancelled by the protesters because a large right wing contingent is believed to be arriving. They duly do, and have a massive scrap with the police instead.
It seems that arrests are made wherever serious incidents occur, regardless of which side people claimed to support.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
Errh isn't the rallying call of the mob that Starmer is two tier in how he deals with criminals. They don't think he is a lefty lawyer that goes easy on everybody, they believe he goes easy only on certain groups.
Yes, that is the far-right's claim. He has been in office for four weeks. We can now start to judge whether that is the case. I'd also take a look at the profile of those charged and prosecuted after the riots in 2011.
He's been LOTO for a lot longer, it's his attitude over several years that is being jiudged
Well now we will see if those doing the judging are correct. Is Starmer the lefty lawyer his critics on the right claim him to be or is he the bloke that the left hates because of the way he dealt with lawbreakers drawn largely from ethnic minorities after the riots of 2011?
That wouldnt be the criteria to judge him on. It's how many more laws does he pass to restrict the average citizen and does he provide one law for all or the misapplication of law to favoured groups,
Well, let's see what happens - in the short term and the long term.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
Yep. Starmer will crack down hard on the far right thugs. Good. That needs to happen
However I suspect he will do very little about the Muslims marching around with weapons, hammering/stabbing people (choose your weapons). That’s bad. TwoTierKier
And he will do bugger all about the underlying calamity: unwanted mass immigration, lack of intervention, asylum seekers, because he has no clue and no inclination. Disaster
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
Errh isn't the rallying call of the mob that Starmer is two tier in how he deals with criminals. They don't think he is a lefty lawyer that goes easy on everybody, they believe he goes easy only on certain groups.
Yes, that is the far-right's claim. He has been in office for four weeks. We can now start to judge whether that is the case. I'd also take a look at the profile of those charged and prosecuted after the riots in 2011.
He's been LOTO for a lot longer, it's his attitude over several years that is being jiudged
Well now we will see if those doing the judging are correct. Is Starmer the lefty lawyer his critics on the right claim him to be or is he the bloke that the left hates because of the way he dealt with lawbreakers drawn largely from ethnic minorities after the riots of 2011?
That wouldnt be the criteria to judge him on. It's how many more laws does he pass to restrict the average citizen and does he provide one law for all or the misapplication of law to favoured groups,
Well, let's see what happens - in the short term and the long term.
The Wikipedia page for the 2020 protests makes interesting reading. Due to COVID, I had not realised how widespread or well organized most of it was. There are clearly a few cases of the usual suspects causing criminal damage and a few assaults (largely in London).
Things don't really kick off until Tommy Robinson's thugs start to get involved, using graffiti on war memorials as the excuse.
The single worst incident is the one where the rally is cancelled by the protesters because a large right wing contingent is believed to be arriving. They duly do, and have a massive scrap with the police instead.
It seems that arrests are made wherever serious incidents occur, regardless of which side people claimed to support.
Aaaaand this is wrong. I was there in Whitehall and Trafalgar Square for those last protests. The BLM side was way more violent, indeed murderously so. It never got reported
The EDL types were quite pathetic - lobbing a few bricks. Drunk. Much less violent than what we’ve seen in the last couple of days
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
I'm not betting on anything now. I just think it's plausible if Starmer becomes very unpopular and Jenrick stabilises the Conservative Party *and* comes up with a credible and better economic/immigration plan.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
Yep. Starmer will crack down hard on the far right thugs. Good. That needs to happen
However I suspect he will do very little about the Muslims marching around with weapons, hammering/stabbing people (choose your weapons). That’s bad. TwoTierKier
And he will do bugger all about the underlying calamity: unwanted mass immigration, lack of intervention, asylum seekers, because he has no clue and no inclination. Disaster
I don't think anyone has the inclination or the stomach to properly discuss mass immigration. For example, voters want low taxes and low inflation. They also want good public services. We have full employment, huge numbers of vacancies and an ageing population. Who does the work and for what salaries - and what do we give up on - if we reduce immigration to the extent you want?
The reason I think this could end Sir Kir Royale after one term is this: he has no plan to solve the underlying issues of migration/asylum. In the latter case he’s actually dismantled the only plan we had, which was - just possibly - beginning to have an effect
So the whole thing could easily get worse, and worse. With a hapless Labour government unable to make painful but necessary changes
That could unite the right by default and then Labour - who got just 34% on a very low turnout - could be swept away after one term
Unfortunately, for this to happen my country needs to fall into riotous despair, so I don’t want it to happen. But if it does, Labour are in big trouble
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
Your faith in the Conservatives' ability to quickly get their act together after giving us years of sh*tshow is almost touching.
Donna Jones's statement about the riots. She's the police and crime commissioner for Hampshire and the Isle of Wight, elected with 68% of the vote after transfers.
It is an insightful statement, if a bit clumsy. The problem with the 'tough/zero tolerance' option, ie repeating the 2011 approach, is that it did not apply to the BLM riots in 2020, which were basically supported by the 'establishment' at the time, with the police kneeling down before the participants, Sir Keir Starmer kneeling down in pictures, labour politicians actually breaking the law to join the protests, and promoting that they were doing so on social media. So, what you actually have, is one approach towards rioting where the group is supported by the establishment, and another where the group is disliked by the establishment. It is very easy for the 'far right' to communicate this via memes. They can use this to expand their appeal, as they are doing already. Farage is also good at communicating this with his Trump style addresses and he has the skill and experience to keep appropriate separation from those involved in the rioting.
No one wants this, but I am afraid it is nearly inevitable. Douglas Murray and countless others (who have been unfairly dismissed themselves as 'far right') have been warning about it for the past decade. Because there is widespread support for resolution of the underlying issues, ie immigration and integration, the instinctive approach on the part of the government 'to 'crack down', round people up, send them to prison, outlaw it, make it hate speech' will not work and instead just inflame the problem, which will be very skilfully exploited by the opposition to the government, which includes people like Farage and Anderson who are there to rock the boat.
There's a bit of rewriting history here by you calling them "BLM riots", the vast majority of demonstrations in 2020 were completely peaceful. When they weren't, the police didn't take the knee but the thugs responsible were arrested. If a group wanted to demonstrate their opposition to children being stabbed to death then why wouldn't the Establishment support that. But that's not what the far-right want to do is it.
There isn't much point going over this debate as it is one where people just have their own version of the truth. I would just note that, in 2020, firstly we were in the middle of covid restrictions but the rules were waived/bent, including by labour politicians. Secondly it involved a lot of criminal damage and there were also assaults of police, but light on prosecutions afterwards - no 24 hour courts despatching instant justice. Third, you have the symbolism of the police kneeling before the protestors. I am not even really commenting on the rights v wrongs of all this, just pointing out that it will all be dug up and used by internet memes by the 'far right' now.
Even if you perceive 2020 as 'mostly peaceful protests' it is not how other people perceive the events.
Regarding the 'far right', I am not a supporter of the 'far right' even though people always seem to interpret my comments that way. I am not even in the 40% of people that would vote for conservative/reform, I voted for labour.
You can have your version of the truth if you like, I've got the facts. There was no 24-hour courts because there was so little violence. Even Priti Patel said that the protests had been mostly peaceful.
You're right about perceptions and that's why I'm pushing back on a false narrative. Some people want to give a perception that 2020 and 2024 is being treated completely differently. That's why Two-Tier Kier is trending but there is nothing that Yvette Cooper has said in 2024 that Priti Patel wouldn't have said in 2020 except for swapping out BLM and Southport.
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
I'm not betting on anything now. I just think it's plausible if Starmer becomes very unpopular and Jenrick stabilises the Conservative Party *and* comes up with a credible and better economic/immigration plan.
Yes. And I can see Reform/Farage realising they’re not going to break through and saying “for the good of the nation we need a unified right to tackle these terrible issues” - then bingo you’ve got a winning coalition
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
Yep. Starmer will crack down hard on the far right thugs. Good. That needs to happen
However I suspect he will do very little about the Muslims marching around with weapons, hammering/stabbing people (choose your weapons). That’s bad. TwoTierKier
And he will do bugger all about the underlying calamity: unwanted mass immigration, lack of intervention, asylum seekers, because he has no clue and no inclination. Disaster
I don't think anyone has the inclination or the stomach to properly discuss mass immigration. For example, voters want low taxes and low inflation. They also want good public services. We have full employment, huge numbers of vacancies and an ageing population. Who does the work and for what salaries - and what do we give up on - if we reduce immigration to the extent you want?
ridiculous.
You bring the 9 million non workers back in to the workforce. Shed fit workers in the publuc sector and move them to the private Raise productivity across the piece
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
So let's do as you suggest. What are the solutions that you would like the government to take on board. How do you encourage better integration?
This might surprise you, but I think Tony Blair and David Blunkett took some good steps with the citizenship test and British Values in the last Labour administration.
I'd like to build on that. I think we should dial back on the "community leaders" and faith schools stuff, and I'd like to lead with more celebration of Britishness and its positive aspects in schools. Less identity politics. More sport and historical dramas. More intervention by the authorities when they see problems in families and communities, whatever their background. More honesty. Prevent needs an overhaul. Prepare for some fights over "that's our culture"; sorry, the line needs to be drawn somewhere.
The boats must stop. If that requires the Royal Navy to intervene, and modifications to the HRA and the jurisdiction of ECtHR rulings in some areas, then so be it. Deportations must accelerate and be swift and unappealable.
I also think international treaties on asylum and migration should be rewritten and Starmer could usefully initiate this as a self-proclaimed Internationalist.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
Yep. Starmer will crack down hard on the far right thugs. Good. That needs to happen
However I suspect he will do very little about the Muslims marching around with weapons, hammering/stabbing people (choose your weapons). That’s bad. TwoTierKier
And he will do bugger all about the underlying calamity: unwanted mass immigration, lack of intervention, asylum seekers, because he has no clue and no inclination. Disaster
It has just struck me, this incident and the response has - in the main been entirely about Starmer's choices rather than say the NHS or prisons which are obviously heavily influenced by the previous governments actions. Fwiw the stuff I've seen online looks like a poundshop crusades cosplay by both sides.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
Yep. Starmer will crack down hard on the far right thugs. Good. That needs to happen
However I suspect he will do very little about the Muslims marching around with weapons, hammering/stabbing people (choose your weapons). That’s bad. TwoTierKier
And he will do bugger all about the underlying calamity: unwanted mass immigration, lack of intervention, asylum seekers, because he has no clue and no inclination. Disaster
I don't think anyone has the inclination or the stomach to properly discuss mass immigration. For example, voters want low taxes and low inflation. They also want good public services. We have full employment, huge numbers of vacancies and an ageing population. Who does the work and for what salaries - and what do we give up on - if we reduce immigration to the extent you want?
ridiculous.
You bring the 9 million non workers back in to the workforce. Shed fit workers in the publuc sector and move them to the private Raise productivity across the piece
If it was that easy why hasn't it happened? Because it is not that easy and it involves significant short and medium term pain. The electorate does not want that pain.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
Yep. Starmer will crack down hard on the far right thugs. Good. That needs to happen
However I suspect he will do very little about the Muslims marching around with weapons, hammering/stabbing people (choose your weapons). That’s bad. TwoTierKier
And he will do bugger all about the underlying calamity: unwanted mass immigration, lack of intervention, asylum seekers, because he has no clue and no inclination. Disaster
I don't think anyone has the inclination or the stomach to properly discuss mass immigration. For example, voters want low taxes and low inflation. They also want good public services. We have full employment, huge numbers of vacancies and an ageing population. Who does the work and for what salaries - and what do we give up on - if we reduce immigration to the extent you want?
If we want a cohesive society - a peaceful nation - then we need to firmly and quickly reduce immigration close to zero and integrate everyone here. And stop the boats
Is it easy? No. Will it be economically painful? Yes. But is it still desirable? Also yes
Otherwise what we have seen is all going to get worse. Do you want that?
Mass immigration has been - in some but not all ways - a major mistake as politicians across Europe are now admitting
There is one country that should inspire us. Denmark. They seem to have a handle on the issue and enjoy much less friction than any other western nation. How have they done it? By the left adopting the most ruthless policies of the right to enforce integration. They literally bulldozed ethnic ghettoes
Josh Shapiro is drifting ever so slightly in the Dem VP nomination market, from 1.4 to 1.42 in the last half hour or so. Whether that is profit-taking or cold feet, who knows?
Could be the oppo about the case of the woman committing suicide by stabbing herself repeatedly in the back of the head. Apparently there's a case where police and prosecutors blew off a murder during Harris's time as AG as well. You can argue about how much responsibility for this lies with the AG but the first rule for the VP is "do no harm".
"The street violence would be disgraceful at any time, let alone in the aftermath of such an unspeakable tragedy. I hoped Sir Keir would pose as an uncomplicated upholder of the King’s peace, and demand zero tolerance for disorder of any kind.....
Instead, he seemed to suggest that the problem was not just the violence, but the fact that protesters were “far Right”.... He did not mention the machete violence in Southend, or the violence against police in Manchester, or the disorder that has accompanied anti-Israel protests.
Some might conclude that Starmer is more upset by the motivation of rioters and vandals than by their behaviour. After all, during the summer of 2020, when anti-lockdown protests were suppressed while Black Lives Matter protests were tolerated, he took the knee."
The reason I think this could end Sir Kir Royale after one term is this: he has no plan to solve the underlying issues of migration/asylum. In the latter case he’s actually dismantled the only plan we had, which was - just possibly - beginning to have an effect
So the whole thing could easily get worse, and worse. With a hapless Labour government unable to make painful but necessary changes
That could unite the right by default and then Labour - who got just 34% on a very low turnout - could be swept away after one term
Unfortunately, for this to happen my country needs to fall into riotous despair, so I don’t want it to happen. But if it does, Labour are in big trouble
It'll get worse as long as @sshats spread misinformation from their pathetic little jollies in France.
Who could be opposed to better integration? But what does it look like and how do we get there?
How do we prepare the UK population and economy for the substantial pain a major reduction in immigration levels will entail?
Kids should learn a lot more (ie something) about Islam at school. I don't think I've ever met a non-BAME teenager who knows about the Isra' and Mi'raj for example.
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
I'm not betting on anything now. I just think it's plausible if Starmer becomes very unpopular and Jenrick stabilises the Conservative Party *and* comes up with a credible and better economic/immigration plan.
Yes. And I can see Reform/Farage realising they’re not going to break through and saying “for the good of the nation we need a unified right to tackle these terrible issues” - then bingo you’ve got a winning coalition
The right-wing vote is still at about 38% or so. With a few Labour to Tory re-defectors on top, it wouldn't take much for it to win again.
However, the Tories really do need to realise that isn't fucking automatic and they've got some serious thinking to do and competence to regain.
Start by doing nothing else but selecting excellent candidates. Elite talent. And PPCs can talk on TV as well as sitting MPs - perhaps even shadow some briefs informally.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
Yep. Starmer will crack down hard on the far right thugs. Good. That needs to happen
However I suspect he will do very little about the Muslims marching around with weapons, hammering/stabbing people (choose your weapons). That’s bad. TwoTierKier
And he will do bugger all about the underlying calamity: unwanted mass immigration, lack of intervention, asylum seekers, because he has no clue and no inclination. Disaster
I don't think anyone has the inclination or the stomach to properly discuss mass immigration. For example, voters want low taxes and low inflation. They also want good public services. We have full employment, huge numbers of vacancies and an ageing population. Who does the work and for what salaries - and what do we give up on - if we reduce immigration to the extent you want?
ridiculous.
You bring the 9 million non workers back in to the workforce. Shed fit workers in the publuc sector and move them to the private Raise productivity across the piece
If it was that easy why hasn't it happened? Because it is not that easy and it involves significant short and medium term pain. The electorate does not want that pain.
Well youve answered your own question. Our politicians are great at telling us about "tough decisions" and then ducking them,
But the avoid the problem cant go on much longer, we havent got the cash. At some point the nettle will have to be grasped and a range of polices enforced which stop the reliance on cheap overseas labour and get more of our own people back into the workforce.
This alone would assist by needing to build less houses and accompanying infrastructure and enable some form of social cohesion to develop.
Who could be opposed to better integration? But what does it look like and how do we get there?
How do we prepare the UK population and economy for the substantial pain a major reduction in immigration levels will entail?
Kids should learn a lot more (ie something) about Islam at school. I don't think I've ever met a non-BAME teenager who knows about the Isra' and Mi'raj for example.
Kids should learn a lot more about all religions. In fact, I think my son's been given a good grounding in many religions by his primary school. But they should not be forced down the route into ne religion by school, or even parents. Let kids find their own faith, if they have one.
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
I'm not betting on anything now. I just think it's plausible if Starmer becomes very unpopular and Jenrick stabilises the Conservative Party *and* comes up with a credible and better economic/immigration plan.
Will there be a massed formation of airborne porcine too?
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
I'm not betting on anything now. I just think it's plausible if Starmer becomes very unpopular and Jenrick stabilises the Conservative Party *and* comes up with a credible and better economic/immigration plan.
Yes. And I can see Reform/Farage realising they’re not going to break through and saying “for the good of the nation we need a unified right to tackle these terrible issues” - then bingo you’ve got a winning coalition
The right-wing vote is still at about 38% or so. With a few Labour to Tory re-defectors on top, it wouldn't take much for it to win again.
However, the Tories really do need to realise that isn't fucking automatic and they've got some serious thinking to do and competence to regain.
Start by doing nothing else but selecting excellent candidates. Elite talent. And PPCs can talk on TV as well as sitting MPs - perhaps even shadow some briefs informally.
They dont need top talent, they need ordinary blokes who can connect with voters.
Weve had politicians from elite universities for the last 3 decades and theyve messed the country up.
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
I'm not betting on anything now. I just think it's plausible if Starmer becomes very unpopular and Jenrick stabilises the Conservative Party *and* comes up with a credible and better economic/immigration plan.
Yes. And I can see Reform/Farage realising they’re not going to break through and saying “for the good of the nation we need a unified right to tackle these terrible issues” - then bingo you’ve got a winning coalition
The right-wing vote is still at about 38% or so. With a few Labour to Tory re-defectors on top, it wouldn't take much for it to win again.
However, the Tories really do need to realise that isn't fucking automatic and they've got some serious thinking to do and competence to regain.
Start by doing nothing else but selecting excellent candidates. Elite talent. And PPCs can talk on TV as well as sitting MPs - perhaps even shadow some briefs informally.
Yes. They need to do some hard and energetic work and gain some intelligence. So I’m not overly hopefully. This is the Tories
However the opportunity is there. The early signs are that this will be a mediocre-to-dreadful Labour government facing problems it is emotionally unable to resolve
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
I'd say that depends heavily on whether the Conservatives are centre-right by then, or not.
I'd say there are about 16 stages of development before we will know.
The Wikipedia page for the 2020 protests makes interesting reading. Due to COVID, I had not realised how widespread or well organized most of it was. There are clearly a few cases of the usual suspects causing criminal damage and a few assaults (largely in London).
Things don't really kick off until Tommy Robinson's thugs start to get involved, using graffiti on war memorials as the excuse.
The single worst incident is the one where the rally is cancelled by the protesters because a large right wing contingent is believed to be arriving. They duly do, and have a massive scrap with the police instead.
It seems that arrests are made wherever serious incidents occur, regardless of which side people claimed to support.
Aaaaand this is wrong. I was there in Whitehall and Trafalgar Square for those last protests. The BLM side was way more violent, indeed murderously so. It never got reported
The EDL types were quite pathetic - lobbing a few bricks. Drunk. Much less violent than what we’ve seen in the last couple of days
It's very unusual for articles like this to be wrong without at least an edit dispute in the page history. Clearly your experience and perception differs, though. I agree about 2020 being on a completely different (lower) scale of violence than the last few days.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
So let's do as you suggest. What are the solutions that you would like the government to take on board. How do you encourage better integration?
This might surprise you, but I think Tony Blair and David Blunkett took some good steps with the citizenship test and British Values in the last Labour administration.
I'd like to build on that. I think we should dial back on the "community leaders" and faith schools stuff, and I'd like to lead with more celebration of Britishness and its positive aspects in schools. Less identity politics. More sport and historical dramas. More intervention by the authorities when they see problems in families and communities, whatever their background. More honesty. Prevent needs an overhaul. Prepare for some fights over "that's our culture"; sorry, the line needs to be drawn somewhere.
The boats must stop. If that requires the Royal Navy to intervene, and modifications to the HRA and the jurisdiction of ECtHR rulings in some areas, then so be it. Deportations must accelerate and be swift and unappealable.
I also think international treaties on asylum and migration should be rewritten and Starmer could usefully initiate this as a self-proclaimed Internationalist.
Thank-you for the answer. I agree with plenty in there. I am all for less identity politics and the absolute rejection of racism that requires. More intervention, absolutely. Honesty, without doubt.
But more honesty would also involve accepting that a lot of people who live in this country and have done so for hundreds of years do not particularly want to celebrate Britishness and would totally reject having it foisted upon them. You and I might regret that but that is the reality.
As for what Britishness is, for me part of it means respect for the individual and the rule of law. Denial of appeal, for example, is something that I, as a fully integrated British citizen, would absolutely reject.
Ending Freedom of Movement caused a spike in immigration
Eventually the boneheads who voted for it will put the pieces together, but not any day soon...
Government policy is what caused a spike in immigration.
Not saying you're wrong but what policy specifically? What are the specific policy decisions where the last government could reasonably have done X and got low immigration, but instead they did Y and got high immigration?
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
I'm not betting on anything now. I just think it's plausible if Starmer becomes very unpopular and Jenrick stabilises the Conservative Party *and* comes up with a credible and better economic/immigration plan.
Yes. And I can see Reform/Farage realising they’re not going to break through and saying “for the good of the nation we need a unified right to tackle these terrible issues” - then bingo you’ve got a winning coalition
The right-wing vote is still at about 38% or so. With a few Labour to Tory re-defectors on top, it wouldn't take much for it to win again.
However, the Tories really do need to realise that isn't fucking automatic and they've got some serious thinking to do and competence to regain.
Start by doing nothing else but selecting excellent candidates. Elite talent. And PPCs can talk on TV as well as sitting MPs - perhaps even shadow some briefs informally.
They dont need top talent, they need ordinary blokes who can connect with voters.
Weve had politicians from elite universities for the last 3 decades and theyve messed the country up.
They need talent, ability to connect and integrity.
There's no point having them in government if they turn out to be self-serving incompetents.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
If there really was a problem with poor integration of immigrants leading to social problems that caused these riots, one would expect more rioting in parts of the country with high proportions of immigrants. Yet much of the worst rioting has been in places like Sunderland, Hull and Belfast.
No, these are not people whose lives have been somehow blighted by a failure of immigrants to integrate. They are racists and Islamophobes who have been riled up by far right propagandists.
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
I'm not betting on anything now. I just think it's plausible if Starmer becomes very unpopular and Jenrick stabilises the Conservative Party *and* comes up with a credible and better economic/immigration plan.
Yes. And I can see Reform/Farage realising they’re not going to break through and saying “for the good of the nation we need a unified right to tackle these terrible issues” - then bingo you’ve got a winning coalition
The right-wing vote is still at about 38% or so. With a few Labour to Tory re-defectors on top, it wouldn't take much for it to win again.
However, the Tories really do need to realise that isn't fucking automatic and they've got some serious thinking to do and competence to regain.
Start by doing nothing else but selecting excellent candidates. Elite talent. And PPCs can talk on TV as well as sitting MPs - perhaps even shadow some briefs informally.
They dont need top talent, they need ordinary blokes who can connect with voters.
Weve had politicians from elite universities for the last 3 decades and theyve messed the country up.
They need talent, ability to connect and integrity.
There's no point having them in government if they turn out to be self-serving incompetents.
Ive been mildy amused how in the last 4 weeks PB has moved from welcoming a "competent" adminstration to defending the hash SKS is making in office.
The Wikipedia page for the 2020 protests makes interesting reading. Due to COVID, I had not realised how widespread or well organized most of it was. There are clearly a few cases of the usual suspects causing criminal damage and a few assaults (largely in London).
Things don't really kick off until Tommy Robinson's thugs start to get involved, using graffiti on war memorials as the excuse.
The single worst incident is the one where the rally is cancelled by the protesters because a large right wing contingent is believed to be arriving. They duly do, and have a massive scrap with the police instead.
It seems that arrests are made wherever serious incidents occur, regardless of which side people claimed to support.
Aaaaand this is wrong. I was there in Whitehall and Trafalgar Square for those last protests. The BLM side was way more violent, indeed murderously so. It never got reported
The EDL types were quite pathetic - lobbing a few bricks. Drunk. Much less violent than what we’ve seen in the last couple of days
It's very unusual for articles like this to be wrong without at least an edit dispute in the page history. Clearly your experience and perception differs, though. I agree about 2020 being on a completely different (lower) scale of violence than the last few days.
Before even Tommy Robinson and his gang got on the scene there was a mini-riot on the 6th June at a BLM rally. There was the famous footage of the police horse charging down the road outside Downing street.
Then there was one specific day where under the guise of say our statues / less COVID restrictions clashed with BLM and there was a combination of really ugly scenes (people who were clearly out of towners getting ambushed) and the odd moment of human spirit (a bloke jumped into to save somebody getting lynched and carried him out).
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
I'm not betting on anything now. I just think it's plausible if Starmer becomes very unpopular and Jenrick stabilises the Conservative Party *and* comes up with a credible and better economic/immigration plan.
Yes. And I can see Reform/Farage realising they’re not going to break through and saying “for the good of the nation we need a unified right to tackle these terrible issues” - then bingo you’ve got a winning coalition
The right-wing vote is still at about 38% or so. With a few Labour to Tory re-defectors on top, it wouldn't take much for it to win again.
However, the Tories really do need to realise that isn't fucking automatic and they've got some serious thinking to do and competence to regain.
Start by doing nothing else but selecting excellent candidates. Elite talent. And PPCs can talk on TV as well as sitting MPs - perhaps even shadow some briefs informally.
They dont need top talent, they need ordinary blokes who can connect with voters.
Weve had politicians from elite universities for the last 3 decades and theyve messed the country up.
They need talent, ability to connect and integrity.
There's no point having them in government if they turn out to be self-serving incompetents.
If the sextet of Tory candidates represent the best that they can find then they are going to have a long time in the wilderness.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
Yep. Starmer will crack down hard on the far right thugs. Good. That needs to happen
However I suspect he will do very little about the Muslims marching around with weapons, hammering/stabbing people (choose your weapons). That’s bad. TwoTierKier
And he will do bugger all about the underlying calamity: unwanted mass immigration, lack of intervention, asylum seekers, because he has no clue and no inclination. Disaster
I don't think anyone has the inclination or the stomach to properly discuss mass immigration. For example, voters want low taxes and low inflation. They also want good public services. We have full employment, huge numbers of vacancies and an ageing population. Who does the work and for what salaries - and what do we give up on - if we reduce immigration to the extent you want?
ridiculous.
You bring the 9 million non workers back in to the workforce. Shed fit workers in the publuc sector and move them to the private Raise productivity across the piece
If it was that easy why hasn't it happened? Because it is not that easy and it involves significant short and medium term pain. The electorate does not want that pain.
Well youve answered your own question. Our politicians are great at telling us about "tough decisions" and then ducking them,
But the avoid the problem cant go on much longer, we havent got the cash. At some point the nettle will have to be grasped and a range of polices enforced which stop the reliance on cheap overseas labour and get more of our own people back into the workforce.
This alone would assist by needing to build less houses and accompanying infrastructure and enable some form of social cohesion to develop.
Politicians tell voters what voters want to hear. We are the problem here. But, less glibly, it's easy for people like me and you - comfortably off, largely unaffected by the breakdown in public services and the cost of living crisis - to pontificate about feckless politicians and an electorate unable to accept trade-offs. We don't have to live with the consequences of those trade-offs.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
If there really was a problem with poor integration of immigrants leading to social problems that caused these riots, one would expect more rioting in parts of the country with high proportions of immigrants. Yet much of the worst rioting has been in places like Sunderland, Hull and Belfast.
No, these are not people whose lives have been somehow blighted by a failure of immigrants to integrate. They are racists and Islamophobes who have been riled up by far right propagandists.
Ending Freedom of Movement caused a spike in immigration
Eventually the boneheads who voted for it will put the pieces together, but not any day soon...
Government policy is what caused a spike in immigration.
Not saying you're wrong but what policy specifically? What are the specific policy decisions where the last government could reasonably have done X and got low immigration, but instead they did Y and got high immigration?
Oh it’s a long list.
Salary threshold for work visa could have been much higher. Students should not be allowed to bring dependents with them. List of ‘shortage’ occupations is too long. Marriage visas should be a lot more difficult to obtain, especially in the case of arranged marriages, and should be subject to cultural and language tests.
This vid has set the tone for me, include the soundtrack reminding me how much I enjoy Steeleye Span, who I'll be playing today.
1:17 of someone doing "vehicular cycling" along Chancery Lane then Gray's Inn Road, showing the complexity of the street environment. I note the constant changes in the LH kerbline.
It includes the obligatory under-endowed MGIF* throbber in an SUV trying to climb up the anus of a cyclist moving in the same traffic flow at the same speed, who then forces a dodgy close pass, and is stationary in a traffic queue literally 2 seconds later. Also a (slow moving) illegal E-moped in the cycle track.
I wouldn't be quite so positive cycling back in London, something I have not done to any extent for about 15 years. And it's 20+ years now since I lived in EC2.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
If there really was a problem with poor integration of immigrants leading to social problems that caused these riots, one would expect more rioting in parts of the country with high proportions of immigrants. Yet much of the worst rioting has been in places like Sunderland, Hull and Belfast.
No, these are not people whose lives have been somehow blighted by a failure of immigrants to integrate. They are racists and Islamophobes who have been riled up by far right propagandists.
What a load of nonsense. There is no such pattern. We also saw major violence in Stoke, Liverpool, Hartlepool. Moreover the recent movements of migrants and asylum seekers have been so huge almost everywhere is impacted
The thing that unites them is, if anything, poverty. Poor people suffer from these issues more than rich people in leafy north London
Ending Freedom of Movement caused a spike in immigration
Eventually the boneheads who voted for it will put the pieces together, but not any day soon...
Government policy is what caused a spike in immigration.
Not saying you're wrong but what policy specifically? What are the specific policy decisions where the last government could reasonably have done X and got low immigration, but instead they did Y and got high immigration?
Oh it’s a long list.
Salary threshold for work visa could have been much higher. Students should not be allowed to bring dependents with them. List of ‘shortage’ occupations is too long. Marriage visas should be a lot more difficult to obtain, especially in the case of arranged marriages, and should be subject to cultural and language tests.
The further increases that were planned got quietly dropped last week. It was supposed to go to £34k and then £39k if my memory serves me correctly. It will stay at £29k.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
Yep. Starmer will crack down hard on the far right thugs. Good. That needs to happen
However I suspect he will do very little about the Muslims marching around with weapons, hammering/stabbing people (choose your weapons). That’s bad. TwoTierKier
And he will do bugger all about the underlying calamity: unwanted mass immigration, lack of intervention, asylum seekers, because he has no clue and no inclination. Disaster
I don't think anyone has the inclination or the stomach to properly discuss mass immigration. For example, voters want low taxes and low inflation. They also want good public services. We have full employment, huge numbers of vacancies and an ageing population. Who does the work and for what salaries - and what do we give up on - if we reduce immigration to the extent you want?
If we want a cohesive society - a peaceful nation - then we need to firmly and quickly reduce immigration close to zero and integrate everyone here. And stop the boats
Is it easy? No. Will it be economically painful? Yes. But is it still desirable? Also yes
Otherwise what we have seen is all going to get worse. Do you want that?
Mass immigration has been - in some but not all ways - a major mistake as politicians across Europe are now admitting
There is one country that should inspire us. Denmark. They seem to have a handle on the issue and enjoy much less friction than any other western nation. How have they done it? By the left adopting the most ruthless policies of the right to enforce integration. They literally bulldozed ethnic ghettoes
Denmark is in the Single Market and has freedom of movement.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
Yep. Starmer will crack down hard on the far right thugs. Good. That needs to happen
However I suspect he will do very little about the Muslims marching around with weapons, hammering/stabbing people (choose your weapons). That’s bad. TwoTierKier
And he will do bugger all about the underlying calamity: unwanted mass immigration, lack of intervention, asylum seekers, because he has no clue and no inclination. Disaster
I don't think anyone has the inclination or the stomach to properly discuss mass immigration. For example, voters want low taxes and low inflation. They also want good public services. We have full employment, huge numbers of vacancies and an ageing population. Who does the work and for what salaries - and what do we give up on - if we reduce immigration to the extent you want?
Who have been the beneficiaries of massively expanding the workforce through immigration: primarily corporations and retired people. If both groups had to pay a bit more to get people to work for them, would it be such a disaster?
I would take what Denmark has tomorrow. I suspect you wouldn't.
Are you kidding? Why would I not want the Danish solution?? I too would take it tomorrow. Yes it means high taxes but if that’s the price of a peaceful nation so be it
I think it’s you that would flinch. The Danes literally demolished ethnic ghettoes and they are ruthless about refusing asylum. You’d find some reason to object
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
Yep. Starmer will crack down hard on the far right thugs. Good. That needs to happen
However I suspect he will do very little about the Muslims marching around with weapons, hammering/stabbing people (choose your weapons). That’s bad. TwoTierKier
And he will do bugger all about the underlying calamity: unwanted mass immigration, lack of intervention, asylum seekers, because he has no clue and no inclination. Disaster
I don't think anyone has the inclination or the stomach to properly discuss mass immigration. For example, voters want low taxes and low inflation. They also want good public services. We have full employment, huge numbers of vacancies and an ageing population. Who does the work and for what salaries - and what do we give up on - if we reduce immigration to the extent you want?
ridiculous.
You bring the 9 million non workers back in to the workforce. Shed fit workers in the publuc sector and move them to the private Raise productivity across the piece
If it was that easy why hasn't it happened? Because it is not that easy and it involves significant short and medium term pain. The electorate does not want that pain.
Well youve answered your own question. Our politicians are great at telling us about "tough decisions" and then ducking them,
But the avoid the problem cant go on much longer, we havent got the cash. At some point the nettle will have to be grasped and a range of polices enforced which stop the reliance on cheap overseas labour and get more of our own people back into the workforce.
This alone would assist by needing to build less houses and accompanying infrastructure and enable some form of social cohesion to develop.
Politicians tell voters what voters want to hear. We are the problem here. But, less glibly, it's easy for people like me and you - comfortably off, largely unaffected by the breakdown in public services and the cost of living crisis - to pontificate about feckless politicians and an electorate unable to accept trade-offs. We don't have to live with the consequences of those trade-offs.
Of course we dont, but having grown up in a coincil estate I havent quite lost touch with how things are for big chunks of our fellow citizens. They live pay check to pay check, often in debt and see no easy way out of it. So when toffs dump a pile of outsiders on top of them and give them preferntial treatment in their eyes. I can well understand why the are pissed off.
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
Luckiest person in the UK at the moment: one Rishi Sunak.
I ran an election forecast for 2029 last night - not impossible for a modest Conservative recovery that rallies the centre-right vote to win. Voteshares:
Con - 34% Lab - 25% LD - 14% Green - 10% Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
What odds are you getting on that result?
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
I'm not betting on anything now. I just think it's plausible if Starmer becomes very unpopular and Jenrick stabilises the Conservative Party *and* comes up with a credible and better economic/immigration plan.
Yes. And I can see Reform/Farage realising they’re not going to break through and saying “for the good of the nation we need a unified right to tackle these terrible issues” - then bingo you’ve got a winning coalition
The right-wing vote is still at about 38% or so. With a few Labour to Tory re-defectors on top, it wouldn't take much for it to win again.
However, the Tories really do need to realise that isn't fucking automatic and they've got some serious thinking to do and competence to regain.
Start by doing nothing else but selecting excellent candidates. Elite talent. And PPCs can talk on TV as well as sitting MPs - perhaps even shadow some briefs informally.
They dont need top talent, they need ordinary blokes who can connect with voters.
Weve had politicians from elite universities for the last 3 decades and theyve messed the country up.
They need talent, ability to connect and integrity.
There's no point having them in government if they turn out to be self-serving incompetents.
Ive been mildy amused how in the last 4 weeks PB has moved from welcoming a "competent" adminstration to defending the hash SKS is making in office.
Still early days.
Nearly as amusing as what’s happened in the US, where in one month we’ve gone from “Biden is going just fine and anyone who says otherwise is making cheap fakes, and Harris is the worst VP in history, she had one job to do at the border and look how that’s going” to “Of course Biden’s too old for the job, and Harris has always been the best thing since sliced bread”.
An alarming piece and the price that the American legal system is going to pay for failing to deal with Trump in the years since the last election. I fear after November 5th there is going to be chaos in the United States as their rickety electoral system simply fails to operate with a notable absence of the sense of duty that Mike Pence ultimately showed.
Ending Freedom of Movement caused a spike in immigration
Eventually the boneheads who voted for it will put the pieces together, but not any day soon...
Government policy is what caused a spike in immigration.
Not saying you're wrong but what policy specifically? What are the specific policy decisions where the last government could reasonably have done X and got low immigration, but instead they did Y and got high immigration?
Oh it’s a long list.
Salary threshold for work visa could have been much higher. Students should not be allowed to bring dependents with them. List of ‘shortage’ occupations is too long. Marriage visas should be a lot more difficult to obtain, especially in the case of arranged marriages, and should be subject to cultural and language tests.
The further increases that were planned got quietly dropped last week. It was supposed to go to £34k and then £39k if my memory serves me correctly. It will stay at £29k.
Oh that's not a good idea. It should be £32k or so now just to cope with inflation...
The Wikipedia page for the 2020 protests makes interesting reading. Due to COVID, I had not realised how widespread or well organized most of it was. There are clearly a few cases of the usual suspects causing criminal damage and a few assaults (largely in London).
Things don't really kick off until Tommy Robinson's thugs start to get involved, using graffiti on war memorials as the excuse.
The single worst incident is the one where the rally is cancelled by the protesters because a large right wing contingent is believed to be arriving. They duly do, and have a massive scrap with the police instead.
It seems that arrests are made wherever serious incidents occur, regardless of which side people claimed to support.
Aaaaand this is wrong. I was there in Whitehall and Trafalgar Square for those last protests. The BLM side was way more violent, indeed murderously so. It never got reported
The EDL types were quite pathetic - lobbing a few bricks. Drunk. Much less violent than what we’ve seen in the last couple of days
It's very unusual for articles like this to be wrong without at least an edit dispute in the page history. Clearly your experience and perception differs, though. I agree about 2020 being on a completely different (lower) scale of violence than the last few days.
Even the BBC reported that 27 police officers were injured on 7th of June by anti racism protests:
"A total of 27 police officers were hurt during anti-racism protests in London, the Met Police has revealed.
Dame Cressida Dick, Met Police Commissioner, said the attacks were "shocking and completely unacceptable".
Protests on Saturday - sparked by the death of George Floyd - were largely peaceful"
Two days later on 9th June, Starmer posted on twitter "We kneel with all those opposing anti-Black racism." while posting a photo of him and Rayner taking the knee.
Ending Freedom of Movement caused a spike in immigration
Eventually the boneheads who voted for it will put the pieces together, but not any day soon...
Government policy is what caused a spike in immigration.
Not saying you're wrong but what policy specifically? What are the specific policy decisions where the last government could reasonably have done X and got low immigration, but instead they did Y and got high immigration?
Oh it’s a long list.
Salary threshold for work visa could have been much higher. Students should not be allowed to bring dependents with them. List of ‘shortage’ occupations is too long. Marriage visas should be a lot more difficult to obtain, especially in the case of arranged marriages, and should be subject to cultural and language tests.
The further increases that were planned got quietly dropped last week. It was supposed to go to £34k and then £39k if my memory serves me correctly. It will stay at £29k.
That’s nuts. It should be at the 40% tax bracket level except for nurses and care workers.
The starting point should be that every immigrant is a net financial contributor, with very few exceptions
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
Errh isn't the rallying call of the mob that Starmer is two tier in how he deals with criminals. They don't think he is a lefty lawyer that goes easy on everybody, they believe he goes easy only on certain groups.
Yes, that is the far-right's claim. He has been in office for four weeks. We can now start to judge whether that is the case. I'd also take a look at the profile of those charged and prosecuted after the riots in 2011.
He's been LOTO for a lot longer, it's his attitude over several years that is being jiudged
Well now we will see if those doing the judging are correct. Is Starmer the lefty lawyer his critics on the right claim him to be or is he the bloke that the left hates because of the way he dealt with lawbreakers drawn largely from ethnic minorities after the riots of 2011?
That wouldnt be the criteria to judge him on. It's how many more laws does he pass to restrict the average citizen and does he provide one law for all or the misapplication of law to favoured groups,
One thing that concerns me, is the embrace of things like facial recognition. Which leads to serious problems. Not least, minority rights issues.
In the United States, this has led to racial recognition (and related ideas, such as gait analysis/recognition) being absolutely hated by the Left.
Worth thinking about for those that knelt to BLM - the various groups representing the BLM movement in the US are 100% against facial recognition. And have backed laws to ban its use in various contexts.
An alarming piece and the price that the American legal system is going to pay for failing to deal with Trump in the years since the last election. I fear after November 5th there is going to be chaos in the United States as their rickety electoral system simply fails to operate with a notable absence of the sense of duty that Mike Pence ultimately showed.
Denmark is in the Single Market and has freedom of movement.
QED
You do realise I’ve never had a problem with the SM and FoM. I was a “liberal Leaver”. I wanted us to move into the EEA/EFTA as a holding position then maybe move further out, slowly, avoiding so much pain
However I accept many many Brits voted on the grounds of FoM and that is their right
We should have had a 2nd referendum to decide the form of Brexit. Soft Brexit as I describe would have won easily
However 2nd voters insisted “Remain anyway” had to be on the ballot, ignoring the first Brexit vote. So it never happened. Fools
The Wikipedia page for the 2020 protests makes interesting reading. Due to COVID, I had not realised how widespread or well organized most of it was. There are clearly a few cases of the usual suspects causing criminal damage and a few assaults (largely in London).
Things don't really kick off until Tommy Robinson's thugs start to get involved, using graffiti on war memorials as the excuse.
The single worst incident is the one where the rally is cancelled by the protesters because a large right wing contingent is believed to be arriving. They duly do, and have a massive scrap with the police instead.
It seems that arrests are made wherever serious incidents occur, regardless of which side people claimed to support.
Aaaaand this is wrong. I was there in Whitehall and Trafalgar Square for those last protests. The BLM side was way more violent, indeed murderously so. It never got reported
The EDL types were quite pathetic - lobbing a few bricks. Drunk. Much less violent than what we’ve seen in the last couple of days
It's very unusual for articles like this to be wrong without at least an edit dispute in the page history. Clearly your experience and perception differs, though. I agree about 2020 being on a completely different (lower) scale of violence than the last few days.
Even the BBC reported that 27 police officers were injured on 7th of June by anti racism protests:
"A total of 27 police officers were hurt during anti-racism protests in London, the Met Police has revealed.
Dame Cressida Dick, Met Police Commissioner, said the attacks were "shocking and completely unacceptable".
Protests on Saturday - sparked by the death of George Floyd - were largely peaceful"
Two days later on 9th June, Starmer posted on twitter "We kneel with all those opposing anti-Black racism." while posting a photo of him and Rayner taking the knee.
Yes. And as she said "We have made a number of arrests and justice will follow. I know many who were seeking to make their voices heard will be as appalled as I am by those scenes."
I would take what Denmark has tomorrow. I suspect you wouldn't.
Are you kidding? Why would I not want the Danish solution?? I too would take it tomorrow. Yes it means high taxes but if that’s the price of a peaceful nation so be it
I think it’s you that would flinch. The Danes literally demolished ethnic ghettoes and they are ruthless about refusing asylum. You’d find some reason to object
The Hartlepool mosque that was attacked raised £25 000 for the British Legion, operates a food bank, had a garden party for the Queens Jubilee etc.
We're the people running it integrated enough for you? If not, what more should they do?
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
If there really was a problem with poor integration of immigrants leading to social problems that caused these riots, one would expect more rioting in parts of the country with high proportions of immigrants. Yet much of the worst rioting has been in places like Sunderland, Hull and Belfast.
No, these are not people whose lives have been somehow blighted by a failure of immigrants to integrate. They are racists and Islamophobes who have been riled up by far right propagandists.
What a load of nonsense. There is no such pattern. We also saw major violence in Stoke, Liverpool, Hartlepool. Moreover the recent movements of migrants and asylum seekers have been so huge almost everywhere is impacted
The thing that unites them is, if anything, poverty. Poor people suffer from these issues more than rich people in leafy north London
Poor but with affordable housing and now with job opportunities.
And those job opportunities are real - a working class bloke can learn a trade, work hard and earn well over £50k in those areas.
If they get the skillset and work hard.
If. Many don't. Instead they prefer to complain and blame.
People prefer to blame something else rather than accept responsibility for their problems.
Now when unemployment was higher and opportunities were fewer it was easier for them to accept failure.
But when they see people like themselves become successful and then recent immigrants become successful anger and bitterness at their own failure becomes dominant and seeks an outlet.
The police are being a little disingenuous. The video people were highlighting, the guy was assaulted after throwing rocks at a group of Asians. There were various claims of how he got those injuries ranging from being hit back with rocks to being stabbed. There are also multiple videos of a gang of Asians running around armed with knives, and they kicked the shit out of multiple other people. The police were also recorded saying to this gang, come on, no weapons, leave them back at the mosque.
So the police going well nothing to see here, is not quite true.
Rubbish.
Put simply: the reports of a stabbing were wrong, and could only inflame the situation. I take those who spread it as wanting to inflame the situation.
Also, how sure are you that those videos were contemporaneous and showed what was claimed? On plenty of occasions piccies and videos spread online are either fake, or show other events. Yet they were immediately taken at face value, and taken to show the worst possible (and wrong) take: that a stabbing had happened.
The 'stabbing' myth was a lie, spread by people who wanted more trouble.
There was also this being recycled about a Muslim woman having acid thrown at her. Police denied it.
Sadly inflaming tensions is inevitable. Hopefully we will have a lot of rain to dampen things down.
Ending Freedom of Movement caused a spike in immigration
Eventually the boneheads who voted for it will put the pieces together, but not any day soon...
Really? Surely Freedom of Movement meant we got immigrants mainly from EU Countries. And less controllable too, not that any government is making much of a fist of controlling immigration.
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
Errh isn't the rallying call of the mob that Starmer is two tier in how he deals with criminals. They don't think he is a lefty lawyer that goes easy on everybody, they believe he goes easy only on certain groups.
I see this morning that much of PB is still doing the equivalent of blaming the Jews for Kristallnacht. These riots were not started by Muslims or by immigrants. The protesters’ specific complaints are pure fiction, based on disinformation that Tommy Robinson et al. have long been spreading, a catalogue of lies (for which Robinson has been served with an arrest warrant).
The rioters chant Robinson’s name, and we know the National Front, British Movement and Patriotic Alternative have all been involved in spreading misinformation and/or organising specific events. Such groups have been building online support since the COVID lockdowns. They do not have “legitimate concerns”.
I would take what Denmark has tomorrow. I suspect you wouldn't.
Are you kidding? Why would I not want the Danish solution?? I too would take it tomorrow. Yes it means high taxes but if that’s the price of a peaceful nation so be it
I think it’s you that would flinch. The Danes literally demolished ethnic ghettoes and they are ruthless about refusing asylum. You’d find some reason to object
The Hartlepool mosque that was attacked raised £25 000 for the British Legion, operates a food bank, had a garden party for the Queens Jubilee etc.
We're the people running it integrated enough for you? If not, what more should they do?
To be fair on Leon, he didn't specify which ethnicity. He might be referring to those ghettos these rioters have come from.
Who could be opposed to better integration? But what does it look like and how do we get there?
How do we prepare the UK population and economy for the substantial pain a major reduction in immigration levels will entail?
Many of the cheap, shitty jobs are going to go.
The robots are already coming for the fruit pickers.
In many of the chain lunch places, rows of assistants at the tills have been replaced with rows of big screen ordering systems.
A relative does care assistance in a private hospital. They are involved in a trial for a Japanese robot that lifts people in/out of bed and other moves. Apparently arse wiping is on the way.
The biggest barrier is the ingrained belief that there is a right to infinite, minimum wage (or below) labour. As opposed to productivity investment.
"The street violence would be disgraceful at any time, let alone in the aftermath of such an unspeakable tragedy. I hoped Sir Keir would pose as an uncomplicated upholder of the King’s peace, and demand zero tolerance for disorder of any kind.....
Instead, he seemed to suggest that the problem was not just the violence, but the fact that protesters were “far Right”.... He did not mention the machete violence in Southend, or the violence against police in Manchester, or the disorder that has accompanied anti-Israel protests.
Some might conclude that Starmer is more upset by the motivation of rioters and vandals than by their behaviour. After all, during the summer of 2020, when anti-lockdown protests were suppressed while Black Lives Matter protests were tolerated, he took the knee."
Mr. darkage, vandals and thugs should not be able to run amok but you're entirely right that the kneeling before BLM sets a damned foolish precedent, as many pointed out at the time.
I don't think anyone would disagree that the vandals and thugs should be arrested etc, and imprisoned. The problem starts when their treatment in the criminal justice system gets politicised. In 2011 there was a strategy of harsh, instant justice against the rioting which was political but it was a strategy that worked. But I think it is a mistake to repeat this strategy now because of the wider political context (ie concern about immigration, and also the different approach taken in 2020), and I think also this is reflected in the comments of the Hampshire PCC. But anyway, it is what the labour government is going to try and do, and I think it will just make the problem worse.
Guess who was behind the strategy in 2011.
A lot of neanderthal far-right rioters and looters probably bought the lefty lawyer stuff that has been thrown at Starmer. They are about to find out they have been sold a pup.
I think any rioter and criminal should be dealt with using the full force of the law.
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
When you mention "malign actors", who do you have in mind? My first thought is Farage who wilfully promoted the fictional notion that the murderer was a Syrian Asylum Seeker. So detailed was the information that we even had the Syrian Asylum Seeker's name. Farage has largely been given a free pass for this.
A few of the Conservative Leadership candidates have seen an opportunity here to hang onto Farage's coat tails. The notion that Starmer is implicated by taking the knee and thus operating a two tier police operation by linking the rioting as a reaction to small boat crossings may seem like an opportunity to shine with more radical Party members. What people like Jenrick, and to a lesser degree Cleverly fail to remember is this time five weeks ago they were the party of government.
Any beneficiaries of a Labour failure in racially charged law and order will not he the Conservatives it will be Farage. Why vote for diet racists when you can have the full fat alternative?
I see this morning that much of PB is still doing the equivalent of blaming the Jews for Kristallnacht. These riots were not started by Muslims or by immigrants. The protesters’ specific complaints are pure fiction, based on disinformation that Tommy Robinson et al. have long been spreading, a catalogue of lies (for which Robinson has been served with an arrest warrant).
The rioters chant Robinson’s name, and we know the National Front, British Movement and Patriotic Alternative have all been involved in spreading misinformation and/or organising specific events. Such groups have been building online support since the COVID lockdowns. They do not have “legitimate concerns”.
Indeed, and the narrative is; "British patriots" wearing Nazi tattoos and defacing images of Churchill are justified in their criminal actions because if they weren't white they would be dealt with using kid gloves, and all because Starmer took the knee.
It's worrying that now the unmentionable racism of Little Tommy Tuppence is being repeated along with Farage's false narrative that a Syrian refugee butchered the girls in Southport on radio phone ins. What is even more startling is the hosts hear them out rather than telling them to f*** off with their lies.
Comments
Put simply: the reports of a stabbing were wrong, and could only inflame the situation. I take those who spread it as wanting to inflame the situation.
Also, how sure are you that those videos were contemporaneous and showed what was claimed? On plenty of occasions piccies and videos spread online are either fake, or show other events. Yet they were immediately taken at face value, and taken to show the worst possible (and wrong) take: that a stabbing had happened.
The 'stabbing' myth was a lie, spread by people who wanted more trouble.
It is why some people on social media jumped to the conclusion the guy had been stabbed. Obviously the rabble rousers want to put the worst spin on it to inflame things more. My point was at the same time the police are being a bit disingenuous, as it makes it sound like nothing really happened.
Irish voters say put immigrants in well off communities
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/72pc-in-favour-of-sending-refugees-to-live-in-affluent-areas/a702721358.html
I've just noted upthread a VP who was so bad that his President ran for re-election without a running mate.
And what does it say about Trump that he's likely to be beaten by someone he has so labelled ?
https://x.com/robinthemint/status/1819838615733547371
I also think there are lessons the authorities need to learn: about how open they are about similar attacks in future, and not creating information vacuums or suspicions that can be filled by malign actors, being honest about problems in communities, and the pressing need for the UK government to address integration and mass immigration more widely rather than shrug it off.
Do I expect it to do so?
No. It's much easier to shrug it all off as racists and far-right, and that's exactly what I suspect they'll do.
Nothing will happen. People like SKS and their followers are totally and utterly temperamentally incapable of engaging with this issue, and nor do they want to do so - in any way.
Unless you want more trouble and violence.
And two sets of two fingers to Trump's lawyers.
A federal judge presiding over the election subversion case against Donald Trump has rejected efforts from his legal team to dismiss the indictment on grounds that the former president was prosecuted for vindictive and political purposes...
In their motion to dismiss the indictment, defence lawyers argued that Trump was mistreated because he was prosecuted even though others who have challenged election results have avoided criminal charges.
But Chutkan rejected both arguments, saying Trump was not charged simply for challenging election results but instead for “knowingly making false statements in furtherance of criminal conspiracies and for obstruction of election certification proceedings.”
She also said that his lawyers had misread news media articles that they had cited in arguing that the prosecution was political in nature...
Chutkan has scheduled a status conference for 16 August, to discuss the next steps in the case.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/04/donald-trump-judge-rejects-efforts-to-dismiss-election-subversion-case-against-ex-president
Con - 34%
Lab - 25%
LD - 14%
Green - 10%
Reform - 9%
Conservatives short of a majority by 14 seats.
[In reality, I think the LDs wouldn't be as high as 62 seats, nor the SNP as low as 13 seats in such a scenario, so Labour would have fewer seats and the Tories more - enough for a small majority]
(If Jenrick is leader, I would reverse the Con/LD shares for a start, then the new LD/Lab shares.)
Things don't really kick off until Tommy Robinson's thugs start to get involved, using graffiti on war memorials as the excuse.
The single worst incident is the one where the rally is cancelled by the protesters because a large right wing contingent is believed to be arriving. They duly do, and have a massive scrap with the police instead.
It seems that arrests are made wherever serious incidents occur, regardless of which side people claimed to support.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd_protests_in_the_United_Kingdom
However I suspect he will do very little about the Muslims marching around with weapons, hammering/stabbing people (choose your weapons). That’s bad. TwoTierKier
And he will do bugger all about the underlying calamity: unwanted mass immigration, lack of intervention, asylum seekers, because he has no clue and no inclination. Disaster
The EDL types were quite pathetic - lobbing a few bricks. Drunk. Much less violent than what we’ve seen in the last couple of days
So the whole thing could easily get worse, and worse. With a hapless Labour government unable to make painful but necessary changes
That could unite the right by default and then Labour - who got just 34% on a very low turnout - could be swept away after one term
Unfortunately, for this to happen my country needs to fall into riotous despair, so I don’t want it to happen. But if it does, Labour are in big trouble
You're right about perceptions and that's why I'm pushing back on a false narrative. Some people want to give a perception that 2020 and 2024 is being treated completely differently. That's why Two-Tier Kier is trending but there is nothing that Yvette Cooper has said in 2024 that Priti Patel wouldn't have said in 2020 except for swapping out BLM and Southport.
You bring the 9 million non workers back in to the workforce.
Shed fit workers in the publuc sector and move them to the private
Raise productivity across the piece
I'd like to build on that. I think we should dial back on the "community leaders" and faith schools stuff, and I'd like to lead with more celebration of Britishness and its positive aspects in schools. Less identity politics. More sport and historical dramas. More intervention by the authorities when they see problems in families and communities, whatever their background. More honesty. Prevent needs an overhaul. Prepare for some fights over "that's our culture"; sorry, the line needs to be drawn somewhere.
The boats must stop. If that requires the Royal Navy to intervene, and modifications to the HRA and the jurisdiction of ECtHR rulings in some areas, then so be it. Deportations must accelerate and be swift and unappealable.
I also think international treaties on asylum and migration should be rewritten and Starmer could usefully initiate this as a self-proclaimed Internationalist.
How do we prepare the UK population and economy for the substantial pain a major reduction in immigration levels will entail?
Eventually the boneheads who voted for it will put the pieces together, but not any day soon...
Fwiw the stuff I've seen online looks like a poundshop crusades cosplay by both sides.
Is it easy? No. Will it be economically painful? Yes. But is it still desirable? Also yes
Otherwise what we have seen is all going to get worse. Do you want that?
Mass immigration has been - in some but not all ways - a major mistake as politicians across Europe are now admitting
There is one country that should inspire us. Denmark. They seem to have a handle on the issue and enjoy much less friction than any other western nation. How have they done it? By the left adopting the most ruthless policies of the right to enforce integration. They literally bulldozed ethnic ghettoes
"The street violence would be disgraceful at any time, let alone in the aftermath of such an unspeakable tragedy. I hoped Sir Keir would pose as an uncomplicated upholder of the King’s peace, and demand zero tolerance for disorder of any kind.....
Instead, he seemed to suggest that the problem was not just the violence, but the fact that protesters were “far Right”.... He did not mention the machete violence in Southend, or the violence against police in Manchester, or the disorder that has accompanied anti-Israel protests.
Some might conclude that Starmer is more upset by the motivation of rioters and vandals than by their behaviour. After all, during the summer of 2020, when anti-lockdown protests were suppressed while Black Lives Matter protests were tolerated, he took the knee."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/03/labour-is-proving-to-be-far-far-worse-than-anyone-feared/
However, the Tories really do need to realise that isn't fucking automatic and they've got some serious thinking to do and competence to regain.
Start by doing nothing else but selecting excellent candidates. Elite talent. And PPCs can talk on TV as well as sitting MPs - perhaps even shadow some briefs informally.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=of9OP_a6MNg
But the avoid the problem cant go on much longer, we havent got the cash. At some point the nettle will have to be grasped and a range of polices enforced which stop the reliance on cheap overseas labour and get more of our own people back into the workforce.
This alone would assist by needing to build less houses and accompanying infrastructure and enable some form of social cohesion to develop.
“In an effort to outflank the populist right, the ruling Social Democrats have adopted one of the harshest refugee policies in the world.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/12/denmark-refugees-frederiksen-danish-left-adopted-a-far-right-immigration-policy/
Very popular with all voters
https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-migration-eu-parliament-election-mette-frederiksen/
Weve had politicians from elite universities for the last 3 decades and theyve messed the country up.
However the opportunity is there. The early signs are that this will be a mediocre-to-dreadful Labour government facing problems it is emotionally unable to resolve
I'd say there are about 16 stages of development before we will know.
But more honesty would also involve accepting that a lot of people who live in this country and have done so for hundreds of years do not particularly want to celebrate Britishness and would totally reject having it foisted upon them. You and I might regret that but that is the reality.
As for what Britishness is, for me part of it means respect for the individual and the rule of law. Denial of appeal, for example, is something that I, as a fully integrated British citizen, would absolutely reject.
There's no point having them in government if they turn out to be self-serving incompetents.
No, these are not people whose lives have been somehow blighted by a failure of immigrants to integrate. They are racists and Islamophobes who have been riled up by far right propagandists.
Still early days.
Then there was one specific day where under the guise of say our statues / less COVID restrictions clashed with BLM and there was a combination of really ugly scenes (people who were clearly out of towners getting ambushed) and the odd moment of human spirit (a bloke jumped into to save somebody getting lynched and carried him out).
Salary threshold for work visa could have been much higher.
Students should not be allowed to bring dependents with them.
List of ‘shortage’ occupations is too long.
Marriage visas should be a lot more difficult to obtain, especially in the case of arranged marriages, and should be subject to cultural and language tests.
Is it going to be an interesting day?
This vid has set the tone for me, include the soundtrack reminding me how much I enjoy Steeleye Span, who I'll be playing today.
1:17 of someone doing "vehicular cycling" along Chancery Lane then Gray's Inn Road, showing the complexity of the street environment. I note the constant changes in the LH kerbline.
It includes the obligatory under-endowed MGIF* throbber in an SUV trying to climb up the anus of a cyclist moving in the same traffic flow at the same speed, who then forces a dodgy close pass, and is stationary in a traffic queue literally 2 seconds later. Also a (slow moving) illegal E-moped in the cycle track.
I wouldn't be quite so positive cycling back in London, something I have not done to any extent for about 15 years. And it's 20+ years now since I lived in EC2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03s5LBiEDoQ
(* Must get In Front)
Are you going to forcibly relocate the inhabitants of Bradford to the Yorkshire Dales and those of Blackburn to the Lake District ?
The thing that unites them is, if anything, poverty. Poor people suffer from these issues more than rich people in leafy north London
I think it’s you that would flinch. The Danes literally demolished ethnic ghettoes and they are ruthless about refusing asylum. You’d find some reason to object
https://x.com/ShockatAdam/status/1819860292936880502?t=bcJ_C9cJ21_BAHG4I4dPgQ&s=19
"A total of 27 police officers were hurt during anti-racism protests in London, the Met Police has revealed.
Dame Cressida Dick, Met Police Commissioner, said the attacks were "shocking and completely unacceptable".
Protests on Saturday - sparked by the death of George Floyd - were largely peaceful"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52954899
Two days later on 9th June, Starmer posted on twitter "We kneel with all those opposing anti-Black racism." while posting a photo of him and Rayner taking the knee.
https://x.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1270374388488167428
The starting point should be that every immigrant is a net financial contributor, with very few exceptions
In the United States, this has led to racial recognition (and related ideas, such as gait analysis/recognition) being absolutely hated by the Left.
Worth thinking about for those that knelt to BLM - the various groups representing the BLM movement in the US are 100% against facial recognition. And have backed laws to ban its use in various contexts.
NEW THREAD
However I accept many many Brits voted on the grounds of FoM and that is their right
We should have had a 2nd referendum to decide the form of Brexit. Soft Brexit as I describe would have won easily
However 2nd voters insisted “Remain anyway” had to be on the ballot, ignoring the first Brexit vote. So it never happened. Fools
None of that is inconsistent.
We're the people running it integrated enough for you? If not, what more should they do?
And those job opportunities are real - a working class bloke can learn a trade, work hard and earn well over £50k in those areas.
If they get the skillset and work hard.
If. Many don't. Instead they prefer to complain and blame.
People prefer to blame something else rather than accept responsibility for their problems.
Now when unemployment was higher and opportunities were fewer it was easier for them to accept failure.
But when they see people like themselves become successful and then recent immigrants become successful anger and bitterness at their own failure becomes dominant and seeks an outlet.
Sadly inflaming tensions is inevitable. Hopefully we will have a lot of rain to dampen things down.
https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1819875722401345967?s=61
The rioters chant Robinson’s name, and we know the National Front, British Movement and Patriotic Alternative have all been involved in spreading misinformation and/or organising specific events. Such groups have been building online support since the COVID lockdowns. They do not have “legitimate concerns”.
The robots are already coming for the fruit pickers.
In many of the chain lunch places, rows of assistants at the tills have been replaced with rows of big screen ordering systems.
A relative does care assistance in a private hospital. They are involved in a trial for a Japanese robot that lifts people in/out of bed and other moves. Apparently arse wiping is on the way.
The biggest barrier is the ingrained belief that there is a right to infinite, minimum wage (or below) labour. As opposed to productivity investment.
A few of the Conservative Leadership candidates have seen an opportunity here to hang onto Farage's coat tails. The notion that Starmer is implicated by taking the knee and thus operating a two tier police operation by linking the rioting as a reaction to small boat crossings may seem like an opportunity to shine with more radical Party members. What people like Jenrick, and to a lesser degree Cleverly fail to remember is this time five weeks ago they were the party of government.
Any beneficiaries of a Labour failure in racially
charged law and order will not he the Conservatives it will be Farage. Why vote for diet racists when you can have the full fat alternative?
It's worrying that now the unmentionable racism of Little Tommy Tuppence is being repeated along with Farage's false narrative that a Syrian refugee butchered the girls in Southport on radio phone ins. What is even more startling is the hosts hear them out rather than telling them to f*** off with their lies.