Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
Perhaps Liz Truss could seek political asylum in France.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
And yet. Their economy seems to troll along like ours. With noticeably better public services. So who's unsafe?
Well you'd have to check all the macroeconomic data but a generous state pension at 60 isn't sustainable.
France also has 7.4% unemployment and a tendency for rioting which we don't have here.
As of now Les Republicains and RN and independent right have 199 seats combined, more than the NFP left block and independent left combined on 180 seats or Macron's coalition and the independent centre on 155 seats combined.
The left is up about 40 seats on 2022. RN is up 55. The Macronists down about 90. This a very Pyrrhic victory for Macron.
Overall, parties of the Right look set to have a plurality in the Assembly. If indeed, LR hate Macron, and LFI hate Macron, I don’t see where a majority can be found.
Not sure. Macron's own party minority government had run into the sands. He held an election to determine another government he could work with that didn't include Le Pen. His gamble seems to have paid off at least to that extent. Another plus he's stopped the Le Pen momentum after her party's stunning results in the Euro elections.
There is a possibility of new left dominated government he can work with but it could be just as stalemated as his previous Ensemble government.
Overall I suspect between better than neutral to as successful as he could hope to be in the circumstances.
But now, his support base has shrunk further.
True but he couldn't do anything with it. Hence the election. He may still not be able to do anything and commentators tend to that prognosis. He's no further behind and there still a chance of some kind of resolution by reshuffling the pack. I think that was his reasoning. Macron certainly took a very big risk for potentially not a lot of gain but he has headed off the big risk of a Le Pen government.
I should add an election within the next year or so was quite likely following an inevitable confidence vote on his minority government. Macron may have decided it was better to take the initiative.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
And yet. Their economy seems to troll along like ours. With noticeably better public services. So who's unsafe?
Well you'd have to check all the macroeconomic data but a generous state pension at 60 isn't sustainable.
France also has 7.4% unemployment and a tendency for rioting which we don't have here.
The importance of rioting in supporting GDP is an under-studied area. Clean up works, traffic light repairs, glaziers....
The left is up about 40 seats on 2022. RN is up 55. The Macronists down about 90. This a very Pyrrhic victory for Macron.
Overall, parties of the Right look set to have a plurality in the Assembly. If indeed, LR hate Macron, and LFI hate Macron, I don’t see where a majority can be found.
Not sure. Macron's own party minority government had run into the sands. He held an election to determine another government he could work with that didn't include Le Pen. His gamble seems to have paid off at least to that extent. Another plus he's stopped the Le Pen momentum after her party's stunning results in the Euro elections.
There is a possibility of new left dominated government he can work with but it could be just as stalemated as his previous Ensemble government.
Overall I suspect between better than neutral to as successful as he could hope to be in the circumstances.
But now, his support base has shrunk further.
True but he couldn't do anything with it. Hence the election. He may still not be able to do anything and commentators tend to that prognosis. He's no further behind and there still a chance of some kind of resolution by reshuffling the pack. I think that was his reasoning. Macron certainly took a very big risk for potentially not a lot of gain but he has headed off the big risk of a Le Pen government.
But there was no risk of Le Pen forming a government without the election gamble. The risk was her winning the presidency next time, and now she has a much bigger parliamentary base to work from.
Wondering if the UK result had an impact in France. If one thing can unify the French it is not to be outdone by the Brits.
Maybe it was @Leon 's reports from Brittany that turned the tide?
Certainly. Have a look at how Brittany voted. It's a cavalcade of Leftists and Macron. He was in Paris too recently. He's gone to Provence slightly too late to kill off Le Pen there. Maybe the French government could arrange a highly paid sinecure? He tours the East and South of the country with all the finest food, booze and sex workers. Turning folk away from Le Pen with every tedious conversation about AI, aliens and white supremacy.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
Perhaps Liz Truss could seek political asylum in France.
Seriously I wonder what's going to happen with Truss.
It would be not in the interests of the Conservatives to allow her to be a candidate again and I doubt they want her in the HoL either.
Perhaps she could earn her personal redemption in the way John Profumo did.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
And yet. Their economy seems to troll along like ours. With noticeably better public services. So who's unsafe?
Will Hutton @williamnhutton · 2m Great result from France and a salutary reminder that the right holds fewer cards than it thinks. Reform is not going to break out of Clacton, Boston and Ashfield and sweep the country in 2029. A progressive majority has finally emerged, and it will be difficult to dislodge.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
Perhaps Liz Truss could seek political asylum in France.
Dans nos campagnes, il nous faut plus de marchés de porc.
Let's not get too overexcited with “Macron is a genius” takes. Yes, Le Pen won't govern. But she's still doubled her seats & with 3 blocs of roughly equal size in incoming Assembly, there is no obvious governing majority. 🇫🇷 is looking at weeks (months) of gridlock & uncertainty
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
Perhaps Liz Truss could seek political asylum in France.
Seriously I wonder what's going to happen with Truss.
It would be not in the interests of the Conservatives to allow her to be a candidate again and I doubt they want her in the HoL either.
Perhaps she could earn her personal redemption in the way John Profumo did.
She is finished. Occasionally wheeled out at some Conservative fringe groups who will have minimal impact on where the party goes next and staging the odd 'intervention' via interview or article that, over time, more and more of the media will ignore.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
Perhaps Liz Truss could seek political asylum in France.
Seriously I wonder what's going to happen with Truss.
It would be not in the interests of the Conservatives to allow her to be a candidate again and I doubt they want her in the HoL either.
Perhaps she could earn her personal redemption in the way John Profumo did.
I suspect we will see her desperately sniffing around Trump and Bannon for the rest of the summer.
The left is up about 40 seats on 2022. RN is up 55. The Macronists down about 90. This a very Pyrrhic victory for Macron.
Overall, parties of the Right look set to have a plurality in the Assembly. If indeed, LR hate Macron, and LFI hate Macron, I don’t see where a majority can be found.
Not sure. Macron's own party minority government had run into the sands. He held an election to determine another government he could work with that didn't include Le Pen. His gamble seems to have paid off at least to that extent. Another plus he's stopped the Le Pen momentum after her party's stunning results in the Euro elections.
There is a possibility of new left dominated government he can work with but it could be just as stalemated as his previous Ensemble government.
Overall I suspect between better than neutral to as successful as he could hope to be in the circumstances.
But now, his support base has shrunk further.
True but he couldn't do anything with it. Hence the election. He may still not be able to do anything and commentators tend to that prognosis. He's no further behind and there still a chance of some kind of resolution by reshuffling the pack. I think that was his reasoning. Macron certainly took a very big risk for potentially not a lot of gain but he has headed off the big risk of a Le Pen government.
But there was no risk of Le Pen forming a government without the election gamble. The risk was her winning the presidency next time, and now she has a much bigger parliamentary base to work from.
And Macron has cohabitation with hard leftists to contend with which will make his job of controlling the borders much more difficult. That's going to continue to drive voters to RN in the run up to the presidential election. Making RN deal with all of that and fail would have killed off the RN challenge IMO. It would have taken the heat out of their challenge, now the flames will burn hotter as people witness more immigration, more illegals, more pro-Hamas policies etc...
As of now Les Republicains and RN and independent right have 199 seats combined, more than the NFP left block and independent left combined on 180 seats or Macron's coalition and the independent centre on 155 seats combined.
Wondering if the UK result had an impact in France. If one thing can unify the French it is not to be outdone by the Brits.
Maybe it was @Leon 's reports from Brittany that turned the tide?
Perhaps worth noting in this context, that Breton voters gave RN grand seat total of diddly squat.
That is ZERO.
That can't be right. Our flint knapper went into a cafe/bar in Brittany and it was rammed with RN voters weeping into their pastis over the state of the country.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
And yet. Their economy seems to troll along like ours. With noticeably better public services. So who's unsafe?
Exclusive footage of an economy trolling along:
Is that meant to be ours or theirs? We've been hearing this for decades. Perhaps it isn't true?
The left is up about 40 seats on 2022. RN is up 55. The Macronists down about 90. This a very Pyrrhic victory for Macron.
Overall, parties of the Right look set to have a plurality in the Assembly. If indeed, LR hate Macron, and LFI hate Macron, I don’t see where a majority can be found.
Not sure. Macron's own party minority government had run into the sands. He held an election to determine another government he could work with that didn't include Le Pen. His gamble seems to have paid off at least to that extent. Another plus he's stopped the Le Pen momentum after her party's stunning results in the Euro elections.
There is a possibility of new left dominated government he can work with but it could be just as stalemated as his previous Ensemble government.
Overall I suspect between better than neutral to as successful as he could hope to be in the circumstances.
But now, his support base has shrunk further.
True but he couldn't do anything with it. Hence the election. He may still not be able to do anything and commentators tend to that prognosis. He's no further behind and there still a chance of some kind of resolution by reshuffling the pack. I think that was his reasoning. Macron certainly took a very big risk for potentially not a lot of gain but he has headed off the big risk of a Le Pen government.
But there was no risk of Le Pen forming a government without the election gamble. The risk was her winning the presidency next time, and now she has a much bigger parliamentary base to work from.
And Macron has cohabitation with hard leftists to contend with which will make his job of controlling the borders much more difficult. That's going to continue to drive voters to RN in the run up to the presidential election. Making RN deal with all of that and fail would have killed off the RN challenge IMO. It would have taken the heat out of their challenge, now the flames will burn hotter as people witness more immigration, more illegals, more pro-Hamas policies etc...
Let's not get too overexcited with “Macron is a genius” takes. Yes, Le Pen won't govern. But she's still doubled her seats & with 3 blocs of roughly equal size in incoming Assembly, there is no obvious governing majority. 🇫🇷 is looking at weeks (months) of gridlock & uncertainty
Let's not get too overexcited with “Macron is a genius” takes. Yes, Le Pen won't govern. But she's still doubled her seats & with 3 blocs of roughly equal size in incoming Assembly, there is no obvious governing majority. 🇫🇷 is looking at weeks (months) of gridlock & uncertainty
The left is up about 40 seats on 2022. RN is up 55. The Macronists down about 90. This a very Pyrrhic victory for Macron.
Overall, parties of the Right look set to have a plurality in the Assembly. If indeed, LR hate Macron, and LFI hate Macron, I don’t see where a majority can be found.
Not sure. Macron's own party minority government had run into the sands. He held an election to determine another government he could work with that didn't include Le Pen. His gamble seems to have paid off at least to that extent. Another plus he's stopped the Le Pen momentum after her party's stunning results in the Euro elections.
There is a possibility of new left dominated government he can work with but it could be just as stalemated as his previous Ensemble government.
Overall I suspect between better than neutral to as successful as he could hope to be in the circumstances.
But now, his support base has shrunk further.
True but he couldn't do anything with it. Hence the election. He may still not be able to do anything and commentators tend to that prognosis. He's no further behind and there still a chance of some kind of resolution by reshuffling the pack. I think that was his reasoning. Macron certainly took a very big risk for potentially not a lot of gain but he has headed off the big risk of a Le Pen government.
But there was no risk of Le Pen forming a government without the election gamble. The risk was her winning the presidency next time, and now she has a much bigger parliamentary base to work from.
And Macron has cohabitation with hard leftists to contend with which will make his job of controlling the borders much more difficult. That's going to continue to drive voters to RN in the run up to the presidential election. Making RN deal with all of that and fail would have killed off the RN challenge IMO. It would have taken the heat out of their challenge, now the flames will burn hotter as people witness more immigration, more illegals, more pro-Hamas policies etc...
What kills a party is losing elections.
So Labour winning after losing 4 elections on the trot was a figment of everyone's imagination?
The left is up about 40 seats on 2022. RN is up 55. The Macronists down about 90. This a very Pyrrhic victory for Macron.
Overall, parties of the Right look set to have a plurality in the Assembly. If indeed, LR hate Macron, and LFI hate Macron, I don’t see where a majority can be found.
Not sure. Macron's own party minority government had run into the sands. He held an election to determine another government he could work with that didn't include Le Pen. His gamble seems to have paid off at least to that extent. Another plus he's stopped the Le Pen momentum after her party's stunning results in the Euro elections.
There is a possibility of new left dominated government he can work with but it could be just as stalemated as his previous Ensemble government.
Overall I suspect between better than neutral to as successful as he could hope to be in the circumstances.
But now, his support base has shrunk further.
True but he couldn't do anything with it. Hence the election. He may still not be able to do anything and commentators tend to that prognosis. He's no further behind and there still a chance of some kind of resolution by reshuffling the pack. I think that was his reasoning. Macron certainly took a very big risk for potentially not a lot of gain but he has headed off the big risk of a Le Pen government.
But there was no risk of Le Pen forming a government without the election gamble. The risk was her winning the presidency next time, and now she has a much bigger parliamentary base to work from.
And Macron has cohabitation with hard leftists to contend with which will make his job of controlling the borders much more difficult. That's going to continue to drive voters to RN in the run up to the presidential election. Making RN deal with all of that and fail would have killed off the RN challenge IMO. It would have taken the heat out of their challenge, now the flames will burn hotter as people witness more immigration, more illegals, more pro-Hamas policies etc...
What kills a party is losing elections.
Pick a winner out of that lot:
Rassemblement national - 124 Renaissance - 85 La France insoumise - 69 Parti socialiste - 62 Les Républicains - 39
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
Perhaps Liz Truss could seek political asylum in France.
Seriously I wonder what's going to happen with Truss.
It would be not in the interests of the Conservatives to allow her to be a candidate again and I doubt they want her in the HoL either.
Perhaps she could earn her personal redemption in the way John Profumo did.
I suspect we will see her desperately sniffing around Trump and Bannon for the rest of the summer.
A V&A retrospective of THE NECKLACE perhaps? Massive posters of a glaiket face staring into the middle distance. I can see it now.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
Perhaps Liz Truss could seek political asylum in France.
Dans nos campagnes, il nous faut plus de marchés de porc.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
Perhaps Liz Truss could seek political asylum in France.
Seriously I wonder what's going to happen with Truss.
It would be not in the interests of the Conservatives to allow her to be a candidate again and I doubt they want her in the HoL either.
Perhaps she could earn her personal redemption in the way John Profumo did.
I'm genuinely concerned about what will happen to Liz over the next few months. I really hope she has a good support network in her personal life, because professionally/politically things have got so hostile. Depression coupled with rejection-sensitivity is a dangerous headspace.
Honestly I just want to give her a big hug, and that's not the sort of thought I regularly espouse.
The left is up about 40 seats on 2022. RN is up 55. The Macronists down about 90. This a very Pyrrhic victory for Macron.
Overall, parties of the Right look set to have a plurality in the Assembly. If indeed, LR hate Macron, and LFI hate Macron, I don’t see where a majority can be found.
Not sure. Macron's own party minority government had run into the sands. He held an election to determine another government he could work with that didn't include Le Pen. His gamble seems to have paid off at least to that extent. Another plus he's stopped the Le Pen momentum after her party's stunning results in the Euro elections.
There is a possibility of new left dominated government he can work with but it could be just as stalemated as his previous Ensemble government.
Overall I suspect between better than neutral to as successful as he could hope to be in the circumstances.
But now, his support base has shrunk further.
True but he couldn't do anything with it. Hence the election. He may still not be able to do anything and commentators tend to that prognosis. He's no further behind and there still a chance of some kind of resolution by reshuffling the pack. I think that was his reasoning. Macron certainly took a very big risk for potentially not a lot of gain but he has headed off the big risk of a Le Pen government.
But there was no risk of Le Pen forming a government without the election gamble. The risk was her winning the presidency next time, and now she has a much bigger parliamentary base to work from.
I think Macron calculated he would be forced into calling an election before the end of his presidency. He certainly took a big gamble by the calling the election when he didn't need to, however.
I should add these results are completely unexpected (to the rest of at least, I don't know about Macron). The expectation was the left and the centre alliances together might deny a Le Pen an overall majority. We didn't expect each of those alliances individually to be bigger than RN
Let's not get too overexcited with “Macron is a genius” takes. Yes, Le Pen won't govern. But she's still doubled her seats & with 3 blocs of roughly equal size in incoming Assembly, there is no obvious governing majority. 🇫🇷 is looking at weeks (months) of gridlock & uncertainty
Surely it was the Le Pen sympathisers getting overexcited believing they were on track to top the poll.
Don't recall too many saying they were going to come third behind both Macron and the Left
Whenever the hard right win, we all need to pay lots of attention to their very real concerns because the voters have spoken. Whenever the far right lose, we have to pay lots of attention to their very real concerns because if we cock it up, the voters will speak next time. And if the voters don’t speak next time then we’d better be very worried because then they might start smashing things up.
The far right is essentially a collective form of narcissistic personality disorder.
As of now Les Republicains and RN and independent right have 199 seats combined, more than the NFP left block and independent left combined on 180 seats or Macron's coalition and the independent centre on 155 seats combined.
So while a disappointment for RN overall coming third much better for the combined right which currently has most seats
Yes but. That's the LR which refused to cooperate with RN. You don't get to add them together when some of LR did choose that route.
You do when most of them wouldn't touch Melenchon with a barge pole and most of their voters would even vote for Le Pen over Melenchon. Now LR may co operate with Macron's block but not with NFP
Let's not get too overexcited with “Macron is a genius” takes. Yes, Le Pen won't govern. But she's still doubled her seats & with 3 blocs of roughly equal size in incoming Assembly, there is no obvious governing majority. 🇫🇷 is looking at weeks (months) of gridlock & uncertainty
The left is up about 40 seats on 2022. RN is up 55. The Macronists down about 90. This a very Pyrrhic victory for Macron.
Overall, parties of the Right look set to have a plurality in the Assembly. If indeed, LR hate Macron, and LFI hate Macron, I don’t see where a majority can be found.
Not sure. Macron's own party minority government had run into the sands. He held an election to determine another government he could work with that didn't include Le Pen. His gamble seems to have paid off at least to that extent. Another plus he's stopped the Le Pen momentum after her party's stunning results in the Euro elections.
There is a possibility of new left dominated government he can work with but it could be just as stalemated as his previous Ensemble government.
Overall I suspect between better than neutral to as successful as he could hope to be in the circumstances.
But now, his support base has shrunk further.
True but he couldn't do anything with it. Hence the election. He may still not be able to do anything and commentators tend to that prognosis. He's no further behind and there still a chance of some kind of resolution by reshuffling the pack. I think that was his reasoning. Macron certainly took a very big risk for potentially not a lot of gain but he has headed off the big risk of a Le Pen government.
But there was no risk of Le Pen forming a government without the election gamble. The risk was her winning the presidency next time, and now she has a much bigger parliamentary base to work from.
And Macron has cohabitation with hard leftists to contend with which will make his job of controlling the borders much more difficult. That's going to continue to drive voters to RN in the run up to the presidential election. Making RN deal with all of that and fail would have killed off the RN challenge IMO. It would have taken the heat out of their challenge, now the flames will burn hotter as people witness more immigration, more illegals, more pro-Hamas policies etc...
What kills a party is losing elections.
Pick a winner out of that lot:
Rassemblement national - 124 Renaissance - 85 La France insoumise - 69 Parti socialiste - 62 Les Républicains - 39
Who was expecting to either win a majority, or spend years brewing up a Dolchfosslegende? RN. Who was lecturing the French people to hand them a majority, or no cooperation? RN. Who ended up with no allies to speak of, rendering your party by party list effortfully and deliberately misleading? RN. Face it, you got wrecked. And same on Thursday. Will there even be a moment of humility from those who claim to speak for the silent majority of the true European race, and end up losing, badly?
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Let's not get too overexcited with “Macron is a genius” takes. Yes, Le Pen won't govern. But she's still doubled her seats & with 3 blocs of roughly equal size in incoming Assembly, there is no obvious governing majority. 🇫🇷 is looking at weeks (months) of gridlock & uncertainty
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
It's not sustainable, France now has net debt of 110% and it's rising faster than any other country in Northern Europe and there's no sign of slowing down.
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Theor productivity seems rather good vis a vis the UK.
Let's not get too overexcited with “Macron is a genius” takes. Yes, Le Pen won't govern. But she's still doubled her seats & with 3 blocs of roughly equal size in incoming Assembly, there is no obvious governing majority. 🇫🇷 is looking at weeks (months) of gridlock & uncertainty
Surely it was the Le Pen sympathisers getting overexcited believing they were on track to top the poll.
Don't recall too many saying they were going to come third behind both Macron and the Left
Whenever the hard right win, we all need to pay lots of attention to their very real concerns because the voters have spoken. Whenever the far right lose, we have to pay lots of attention to their very real concerns because if we cock it up, the voters will speak next time. And if the voters don’t speak next time then we’d better be very worried because then they might start smashing things up.
The far right is essentially a collective form of narcissistic personality disorder.
No, what we need to do is take their talking points away by coming up with functional policies to deal with real issues.
Biden in his first term realised that - see the big ticket investment in US technology. Bring well paid jobs back on shore.
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Theor productivity seems rather good vis a vis the UK.
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
It's not sustainable, France now has net debt of 110% and it's rising faster than any other country in Northern Europe and there's no sign of slowing down.
And yet it continues to be sustainable. We've been hearing this since the Eighties. Why is it?
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Theor productivity seems rather good vis a vis the UK.
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Theor productivity seems rather good vis a vis the UK.
Investment in productivity increasing equipment is very favourably taxed in France. This is because the Left in France realised that the pizza theory of jobs and productivity was bullshit, long before the Left did in the U.K.
So investment in productivity became a constant across the political spectrum. Everyone is in favour. So it became a non political issue.
Hence you see a full crane at many rural building sites.
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
It's not sustainable, France now has net debt of 110% and it's rising faster than any other country in Northern Europe and there's no sign of slowing down.
And yet it continues to be sustainable. We've been hearing this since the Eighties. Why is it?
Low interest rates from 2007 to 2022, 15 years of low interest rates. That is now over and the higher their debt becomes the more intolerable the debt servicing bill becomes and there's no ECB bailout coming this time.
Sunak on points . Ensemble did better than expected . There was already deadlock in the French parliament and RN can spin it as much as they like but the Republican front held .
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Theor productivity seems rather good vis a vis the UK.
Partly because they don't create as many jobs.
So. Then we need to consider whether the simple existence of a job is of any benefit to anyone. When it pays a tenner a day above signing on and it could be done by a machine anyways.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
Perhaps Liz Truss could seek political asylum in France.
Seriously I wonder what's going to happen with Truss.
It would be not in the interests of the Conservatives to allow her to be a candidate again and I doubt they want her in the HoL either.
Perhaps she could earn her personal redemption in the way John Profumo did.
I suspect we will see her desperately sniffing around Trump and Bannon for the rest of the summer.
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Theor productivity seems rather good vis a vis the UK.
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Theor productivity seems rather good vis a vis the UK.
Partly because they don't create as many jobs.
So. Then we need to consider whether the simple existence of a job is of any benefit to anyone. When it pays a tenner a day above signing on and it could be done by a machine anyways.
Exactly. That would also solve the immigration question because we would discover that the economy doesn't "need" a bottomless supply of labour.
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Theor productivity seems rather good vis a vis the UK.
Investment in productivity increasing equipment is very favourably taxed in France. This is because the Left in France realised that the pizza theory of jobs and productivity was bullshit, long before the Left did in the U.K.
So investment in productivity became a constant across the political spectrum. Everyone is in favour. So it became a non political issue.
Hence you see a full crane at many rural building sites.
And the latest tech in public services. Rather than an Internet connection which goes down for a full day. And photocopiers which can't be refilled except by an outsourced company.
One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.
He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.
I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.
I’ll leave it there.
Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.
I feel the same. I won't be here again after today. That's a guarantee.
Why? I like your posts and you seemed to be one of those posters who trod your own furrow and therefore wasn't bothered by what anyone thought which I like
It's mainly because the race baiting usually goes uncommented on. It's surprisingly easy to deal with regularly hearing racist epithets if there's widespread pushback. And less easy when there isn't.
If there's a drunk old man on the bus who's muttering about Pakis, do you sit there in embarrassed silence or do you call it out? Most people on here choose silence. A few people might chirp up and say just ignore it. That advice is (and this shouldn't be a big surprise if you think about it) unwelcome. So then the "Paki" gets off the bus. All you bus wankers still have to hear the mutterer, so maybe the "Paki" is the smart one.
Ding. This is my stop.
Bye.
What racism are you refering too? People have different opinions about the world, for instance on Gaza, and on refugee/migrants. Doesn’t make it racist. This is a wonderful place, welcoming, broadly friendly, with intelligent posters, for the most part. It serves those who want good political betting advice very well. By its nature some on here can be a bit tribal, for whatever value of tribal they go by. But genuinely this is one of the best online places you will find.
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Isn't the 2027 presidential election the one at which people decide whether or not it's Le Pen?
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Theor productivity seems rather good vis a vis the UK.
Partly because they don't create as many jobs.
So. Then we need to consider whether the simple existence of a job is of any benefit to anyone. When it pays a tenner a day above signing on and it could be done by a machine anyways.
I’ve asked before how productivity is measured and if this impacts on how different countries are perceived. There is a classic in health studies where the French didn’t seem to die from heart attacks, despite cheese, wine etc. Often ascribed to the health effects of resveratrol, now more likely to small town doctors writing natural causes rather than cardiac arrest on death certificates. How you measure stuff is important.
Sunak obviously. He’d swap for Macron’s position in a heartbeat.
Sunak had to call an election within a few months anyway and his party was almost unleadable. Macron appears to have made a complete unforced error. Starting with the PM's resignation.
One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.
He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.
I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.
I’ll leave it there.
Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.
I feel the same. I won't be here again after today. That's a guarantee.
Why? I like your posts and you seemed to be one of those posters who trod your own furrow and therefore wasn't bothered by what anyone thought which I like
It's mainly because the race baiting usually goes uncommented on. It's surprisingly easy to deal with regularly hearing racist epithets if there's widespread pushback. And less easy when there isn't.
If there's a drunk old man on the bus who's muttering about Pakis, do you sit there in embarrassed silence or do you call it out? Most people on here choose silence. A few people might chirp up and say just ignore it. That advice is (and this shouldn't be a big surprise if you think about it) unwelcome. So then the "Paki" gets off the bus. All you bus wankers still have to hear the mutterer, so maybe the "Paki" is the smart one.
Ding. This is my stop.
Bye.
I agree with that and I agree that there are too many who keep silent and even worse who too often join in. However most people know who they are and share your instincts even if they can't do more than skim past them. The ignorance gets to me more than anything. One poster said Palestinians like it when their children are killed. I said he was a fucking idiot and a clown and he got six 'likes'. He's still posting but I don't read his posts anymore
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
It's not sustainable, France now has net debt of 110% and it's rising faster than any other country in Northern Europe and there's no sign of slowing down.
And yet it continues to be sustainable. We've been hearing this since the Eighties. Why is it?
You realise Macron has been implementing all kinds of reforms that the left want rolled back?
I'm calling peak Le Pen tonight. Outwitted by the combined forces of Macron and the left, she won't win the next presidential election. It's the equivalent high point of that Hartlepool by-election win for Boris.
You'd say the basic issue is whether Macron's Renaissance or the PS can produce a candidate who can peel off the centre left who now despise Macron the man from the Melenchonists and form a coalition of the normal left and centre, plus in a run-off, likely win the support of some of those who support Les Reblicains.
If they can, then you're likely looking at the results Macron got or 2002 again. If they can't and there's a huge bunfight as to who gets into a run-off, then you could end up with Le Pen v the Far Left, in which case, the route is open for her/a successor again - if can convince enough people they no longer believe the more out there fash stuff and unite the right.
Going to bed now. Cos I have to get up to work for an underpaid job in a poor public service which fails extremely vulnerable children daily. Thanks for all the input. Just wondering how France seems to manage it. Super contributions from folk I don't normally agree with.@williamglenn and @maxpb. Ta.
Let's not get too overexcited with “Macron is a genius” takes. Yes, Le Pen won't govern. But she's still doubled her seats & with 3 blocs of roughly equal size in incoming Assembly, there is no obvious governing majority. 🇫🇷 is looking at weeks (months) of gridlock & uncertainty
Surely it was the Le Pen sympathisers getting overexcited believing they were on track to top the poll.
Don't recall too many saying they were going to come third behind both Macron and the Left
Whenever the hard right win, we all need to pay lots of attention to their very real concerns because the voters have spoken. Whenever the far right lose, we have to pay lots of attention to their very real concerns because if we cock it up, the voters will speak next time. And if the voters don’t speak next time then we’d better be very worried because then they might start smashing things up.
The far right is essentially a collective form of narcissistic personality disorder.
Why is the far right getting support? Too few on the left/centre are prepared to answer this question. Are there simply more people with mental illness than there used to be?
Sunak on points . Ensemble did better than expected . There was already deadlock in the French parliament and RN can spin it as much as they like but the Republican front held .
Ensemble no longer largest party and if it does any deal with the Socialists and hard left the centre will shift back to LR
Going to bed now. Cos I have to get up to work for an underpaid job in a poor public service which fails extremely vulnerable children daily. Thanks for all the input. Just wondering how France seems to manage it. Super contributions from folk I don't normally agree with.@williamglenn and @maxpb. Ta.
Robert did a great video a few years ago on how productivity is calculated...its complicated and some what flawed. It isn't easy to directly compare say UK and France based on the productivity number alone.
However, undeniable directional of travel in the UK.
Let's not get too overexcited with “Macron is a genius” takes. Yes, Le Pen won't govern. But she's still doubled her seats & with 3 blocs of roughly equal size in incoming Assembly, there is no obvious governing majority. 🇫🇷 is looking at weeks (months) of gridlock & uncertainty
Surely it was the Le Pen sympathisers getting overexcited believing they were on track to top the poll.
Don't recall too many saying they were going to come third behind both Macron and the Left
Whenever the hard right win, we all need to pay lots of attention to their very real concerns because the voters have spoken. Whenever the far right lose, we have to pay lots of attention to their very real concerns because if we cock it up, the voters will speak next time. And if the voters don’t speak next time then we’d better be very worried because then they might start smashing things up.
The far right is essentially a collective form of narcissistic personality disorder.
Why is the far right getting support? Too few on the left/centre are prepared to answer this question. Are there simply more people with mental illness than there used to be?
Yeah. And why is there a Labour government with a 170+ majority? Increasingly we're not talking to each other. That's why I'm trying to tease out why the French way of doing things couldn't have always been done here? The Right need to address that question too.
Sunak on points . Ensemble did better than expected . There was already deadlock in the French parliament and RN can spin it as much as they like but the Republican front held .
Ensemble no longer largest party and if it does any deal with the Socialists and hard left the centre will shift back to LR
You can have a coalition without the hard left but the pension reform issue seems very difficult to overcome .
Sunak on points . Ensemble did better than expected . There was already deadlock in the French parliament and RN can spin it as much as they like but the Republican front held .
Ensemble no longer largest party and if it does any deal with the Socialists and hard left the centre will shift back to LR
You can have a coalition without the hard left but the pension reform issue seems very difficult to overcome .
The thing is the Macron's pension reform wasn't even going to solve the problem only kick the can down the road a few years. One of the good things the Coalition achieved was sensible pension reform that is much more effective on addressing the issue for the longer term.
French TV full of Left New Popular Front politicians saying they must immediately be allowed to cut the retirement age, increase the minimum wage by a large amount and introduce price controls. The economics of the madhouse. The financial markets will have a field day. France is staring into the abyss.
Riot when you lose, riot when you win, riot when its a day that ends in y.
"Who dropped a whole truckload of fizzies into the swim meet? Who delivered the medical school cadavers to the alumni dinner? Every Halloween, the trees are filled with underwear. Every spring, the toilets explode."
Riot when you lose, riot when you win, riot when its a day that ends in y.
You mean to say the French are revolting?
Its does make you proud to British public / system that we have an election, the Starmer bloke wins, the public look up from their cereal and go huh, I see, and carry on with life while the change over is done by the time we come back from work. No rioting, no rampaging on parliament.
Riot when you lose, riot when you win, riot when its a day that ends in y.
You mean to say the French are revolting?
Its does make you proud to British public / system that we have an election, the Starmer bloke wins, the public look up from their cereal and go huh, I see, and carry on with life while the change over is done by the time we come back from work. No rioting, no rampaging on parliament.
It contrasts with the abject fear that certain sections of the ruling class in the UK have of the Head Count.
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Theor productivity seems rather good vis a vis the UK.
It is. Why is that?
Fewer hours worked? Have to have the same output in fewer hours?
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Theor productivity seems rather good vis a vis the UK.
It is. Why is that?
Fewer hours worked? Have to have the same output in fewer hours?
Its more complicated. From memory of Robert's video, one big issue is that they have to assign a figure to productivity of each public sector job as no way of easily estimating GDP of each job, so they get a flat rating. As a result, basically the larger your public sector, the larger the advantage for productivity number over a country with a smaller number of public sector jobs. France has a very large public sector.
Rioting when you get the result you want is beyond stupid.
I always think shop fitting or making public furniture must be a great business to be in France. Normally you flog a bus shelter and perhaps in 5 years the council want to buy a new one, in France every other week.
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Theor productivity seems rather good vis a vis the UK.
It is. Why is that?
Fewer hours worked? Have to have the same output in fewer hours?
Its more complicated. From memory of Robert's video, one big issue is that they have to assign a figure to productivity of each public sector job as no way of easily estimating GDP of each job, so they get a flat rating. As a result, basically the larger your public sector, the larger the advantage for productivity number over a country with a smaller number of public sector jobs. France has a very large public sector.
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Theor productivity seems rather good vis a vis the UK.
It is. Why is that?
Fewer hours worked? Have to have the same output in fewer hours?
Its more complicated. From memory of Robert's video, one big issue is that they have to assign a figure to productivity of each public sector job as no way of easily estimating GDP of each job, so they get a flat rating. As a result, basically the larger your public sector, the larger the advantage for productivity number over a country with a smaller number of public sector jobs. France has a very large public sector.
Oh so it's manipulation of data, basically. Lol
It isn't deliberate manipulation, more a flaw in the way it is calculated because it is very complicated to assign how much GDP a public sector job generates indirectly.
I always enjoyed Robert's videos. Given the way YouTube has gone over the last few years, I think if he had stuck at it he could have become quite big in this space.
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Theor productivity seems rather good vis a vis the UK.
It is. Why is that?
Fewer minimum wage shite jobs.
UK productivity is deflated by minimum wage jobs. Cull some and see people go unemployed instead and productivity (being an average) rises but nobody is better off.
Its sort of the inverse of the way that "poverty" falls by culling higher income wages from the stats.
Analysis by the Institut Montaigne think tank found that rolling back Macron’s deeply unpopular increase in the state pension age from 64 to 60 would cost €58bn (£49bn) a year. Capping the prices of gas, food and other essentials would cost €24bn, according to the institute.
The Leftist coalition has also vowed to increase the number of income tax bands from five to 14, with lower earners paying less tax. It will also restore the wealth tax abolished by Macron and increase inheritance tax.
In total, the NFP’s pledges are estimated to cost nearly €95bn a year once fully rolled out.
This is double the cost of National Rally’s policies of €48bn. Macron’s centrist plan suggests extra spending of around €15bn, the think tank added.
Economists at Citi said the NFP’s programme could “conceivably sum up to an additional €100bn to €200bn”, putting Europe’s second largest economy on a collision course with Brussels over tax and spending.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
And yet. Their economy seems to troll along like ours. With noticeably better public services. So who's unsafe?
Well you'd have to check all the macroeconomic data but a generous state pension at 60 isn't sustainable.
France also has 7.4% unemployment and a tendency for rioting which we don't have here.
But a generous state pension at 64 is sustainable, whereas ours is less generous and not paid until 67 or 68. What gives?
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
And yet. Their economy seems to troll along like ours. With noticeably better public services. So who's unsafe?
Well you'd have to check all the macroeconomic data but a generous state pension at 60 isn't sustainable.
France also has 7.4% unemployment and a tendency for rioting which we don't have here.
But a generous state pension at 64 is sustainable, whereas ours is less generous and not paid until 67 or 68. What gives?
It isn't though. It is just can kicking. I think it was the Economist that did an analysis of it and said all it is doing is buying a few years before the scheme gets back into trouble again, it doesn't actually solve the long term pension problem for France.
Where as Steve Webb reforms put the UK in a place that is more sustainable long term.
Rioting when you get the result you want is beyond stupid.
I always think shop fitting or making public furniture must be a great business to be in France. Normally you flog a bus shelter and perhaps in 5 years the council want to buy a new one, in France every other week.
Especially when you give your employees a “Riot Day” once a month - bit like a Blanket Day, but with some physical exercise, getting out of the house, shopping…
Rioting when you get the result you want is beyond stupid.
I always think shop fitting or making public furniture must be a great business to be in France. Normally you flog a bus shelter and perhaps in 5 years the council want to buy a new one, in France every other week.
Especially when you give your employees a “Riot Day” once a month - bit like a Blanket Day, but with some physical exercise, getting out of the house, shopping…
I can't see it making its way into Starmer's new work life balance resettlement.
The text discusses the issue of productivity as an economic statistic. It highlights that productivity is not a reliable measure of economic output and raises concerns about its accuracy. The text points out three main issues with productivity statistics.
Firstly, it questions the measurement of productivity in the modern workforce, where traditional methods of measuring work hours are no longer applicable.
Secondly, it highlights the distortion of productivity numbers by public sector employees and service industries, where pay increases can falsely inflate productivity.
Lastly, it discusses how movements in the makeup of the workforce can distort productivity numbers, using a fictitious example to illustrate this point.
The text also compares productivity in France to other countries, attributing France's high productivity to its high payroll taxes, which may actually result in a large number of people being unable to get jobs.
Overall, the text emphasizes the limitations and inaccuracies of productivity as an economic statistic and suggests that alternative measures should be considered.
Comments
France also has 7.4% unemployment and a tendency for rioting which we don't have here.
That is ZERO.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/07/2024-french-election-results-chart-and-map-of-second-round-winners_6676976_8.html
So while a disappointment for RN overall coming third much better for the combined right which currently has most seats
I should add an election within the next year or so was quite likely following an inevitable confidence vote on his minority government. Macron may have decided it was better to take the initiative.
It's a cavalcade of Leftists and Macron. He was in Paris too recently.
He's gone to Provence slightly too late to kill off Le Pen there.
Maybe the French government could arrange a highly paid sinecure? He tours the East and South of the country with all the finest food, booze and sex workers. Turning folk away from Le Pen with every tedious conversation about AI, aliens and white supremacy.
It would be not in the interests of the Conservatives to allow her to be a candidate again and I doubt they want her in the HoL either.
Perhaps she could earn her personal redemption in the way John Profumo did.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/your-enemys-enemies/
Will Hutton
@williamnhutton
·
2m
Great result from France and a salutary reminder that the right holds fewer cards than it thinks. Reform is not going to break out of Clacton, Boston and Ashfield and sweep the country in 2029. A progressive majority has finally emerged, and it will be difficult to dislodge.
https://x.com/williamnhutton/status/1810067446927155330
https://x.com/Mij_Europe/status/1810060831050105319
You don't get to add them together when some of LR did choose that route.
We've been hearing this for decades. Perhaps it isn't true?
I am delighted RN didn’t win, but does it make things any simpler re makeup of the government? It’s a mess.
Don't recall too many saying they were going to come third behind both Macron and the Left
Rassemblement national - 124
Renaissance - 85
La France insoumise - 69
Parti socialiste - 62
Les Républicains - 39
https://x.com/afneil/status/1810057578937991664
I'm genuinely concerned about what will happen to Liz over the next few months. I really hope she has a good support network in her personal life, because professionally/politically things have got so hostile. Depression coupled with rejection-sensitivity is a dangerous headspace.
Honestly I just want to give her a big hug, and that's not the sort of thought I regularly espouse.
I should add these results are completely unexpected (to the rest of at least, I don't know about Macron). The expectation was the left and the centre alliances together might deny a Le Pen an overall majority. We didn't expect each of those alliances individually to be bigger than RN
The far right is essentially a collective form of narcissistic personality disorder.
Who was lecturing the French people to hand them a majority, or no cooperation? RN.
Who ended up with no allies to speak of, rendering your party by party list effortfully and deliberately misleading? RN.
Face it, you got wrecked. And same on Thursday. Will there even be a moment of humility from those who claim to speak for the silent majority of the true European race, and end up losing, badly?
Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be.
Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Now for the consequences.
Can’t see Macron agreeing to that .
Biden in his first term realised that - see the big ticket investment in US technology. Bring well paid jobs back on shore.
Why is that?
https://x.com/leannemohamad/status/1809990700999524792?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
So investment in productivity became a constant across the political spectrum. Everyone is in favour. So it became a non political issue.
Hence you see a full crane at many rural building sites.
France needs to balance the budget.
And training season's over, mate.
This is a wonderful place, welcoming, broadly friendly, with intelligent posters, for the most part. It serves those who want good political betting advice very well.
By its nature some on here can be a bit tribal, for whatever value of tribal they go by. But genuinely this is one of the best online places you will find.
There is a classic in health studies where the French didn’t seem to die from heart attacks, despite cheese, wine etc. Often ascribed to the health effects of resveratrol, now more likely to small town doctors writing natural causes rather than cardiac arrest on death certificates.
How you measure stuff is important.
If they can, then you're likely looking at the results Macron got or 2002 again. If they can't and there's a huge bunfight as to who gets into a run-off, then you could end up with Le Pen v the Far Left, in which case, the route is open for her/a successor again - if can convince enough people they no longer believe the more out there fash stuff and unite the right.
Thanks for all the input. Just wondering how France seems to manage it.
Super contributions from folk I don't normally agree with.@williamglenn and @maxpb.
Ta.
However, undeniable directional of travel in the UK.
Increasingly we're not talking to each other.
That's why I'm trying to tease out why the French way of doing things couldn't have always been done here?
The Right need to address that question too.
https://x.com/afneil/status/1810065183886184806
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1810062906840744284
Riot when you lose, riot when you win, riot when its a day that ends in y.
The Worst Economic Statistic?
In this video, I take you inside how productivity is calculated and show why it makes absolutely no sense.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ytN9n3SFa0
UK productivity is deflated by minimum wage jobs. Cull some and see people go unemployed instead and productivity (being an average) rises but nobody is better off.
Its sort of the inverse of the way that "poverty" falls by culling higher income wages from the stats.
Analysis by the Institut Montaigne think tank found that rolling back Macron’s deeply unpopular increase in the state pension age from 64 to 60 would cost €58bn (£49bn) a year. Capping the prices of gas, food and other essentials would cost €24bn, according to the institute.
The Leftist coalition has also vowed to increase the number of income tax bands from five to 14, with lower earners paying less tax. It will also restore the wealth tax abolished by Macron and increase inheritance tax.
In total, the NFP’s pledges are estimated to cost nearly €95bn a year once fully rolled out.
This is double the cost of National Rally’s policies of €48bn. Macron’s centrist plan suggests extra spending of around €15bn, the think tank added.
Economists at Citi said the NFP’s programme could “conceivably sum up to an additional €100bn to €200bn”, putting Europe’s second largest economy on a collision course with Brussels over tax and spending.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/04/macron-bargain-hard-left-risks-disaster-france-election/
Where as Steve Webb reforms put the UK in a place that is more sustainable long term.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGhiTZMCc2g
The text discusses the issue of productivity as an economic statistic. It highlights that productivity is not a reliable measure of economic output and raises concerns about its accuracy. The text points out three main issues with productivity statistics.
- Firstly, it questions the measurement of productivity in the modern workforce, where traditional methods of measuring work hours are no longer applicable.
- Secondly, it highlights the distortion of productivity numbers by public sector employees and service industries, where pay increases can falsely inflate productivity.
- Lastly, it discusses how movements in the makeup of the workforce can distort productivity numbers, using a fictitious example to illustrate this point.
The text also compares productivity in France to other countries, attributing France's high productivity to its high payroll taxes, which may actually result in a large number of people being unable to get jobs.Overall, the text emphasizes the limitations and inaccuracies of productivity as an economic statistic and suggests that alternative measures should be considered.
https://ahrefs.com/writing-tools/summarizer
289 needed for majority
New Popular Front 180
Ensemble 159
National Rally 143
Republicans 39
Others 56
https://www.ft.com