Well that’s one hell of a hangover this morning, after celebrating rather too much during a mad long weekend of elections and sports. But England are in the semi finals and Lewis won the Grand Prix, the UK has a new government, and France probably doesn’t.
Rioting when you get the result you want is beyond stupid.
Welcome to France, where rioting is a summer fixture on the sporting calendar. Hopefully they are getting it out of their system now, so as not to disrupt the Olympics which starts in less than three weeks’ time.
An Iranian frigate, built in 2018, has capsized whilst in port. It looks like ships of the Iranian Navy are fed up with missing out on all the Russian action, and are keen to meet their old friends.
This class of frigates appears to be rather unlucky. This is the second to be sunk (after Damavand sunk in 2018); and the Shiraz overturned *during construction* and is being 'repaired'. Not a good record for a newish class of ship of which there are five members (depending how you count the replacements...)
You don't just rustle this kit up out of thin air in a few days; this will have been in the works well into the previous administration. It is a solid sign that Starmer's robust on defending Ukraine though.
I always enjoyed Robert's videos. Given the way YouTube has gone over the last few years, I think if he had stuck at it he could have become quite big in this space.
He's right. But whatever the answer is, it isn't Le Pen. The people have decided that. Meanwhile. The unsustainable mess of generous welfare, early retirement and top class public services seems to be almost magically sustainable. It would be a lot more interesting if folk would investigate why that might be. Instead of insisting for a fifth consecutive decade that it simply can't last.
Theor productivity seems rather good vis a vis the UK.
It is. Why is that?
Fewer minimum wage shite jobs.
UK productivity is deflated by minimum wage jobs. Cull some and see people go unemployed instead and productivity (being an average) rises but nobody is better off.
Its sort of the inverse of the way that "poverty" falls by culling higher income wages from the stats.
Last time I checked, France had a higher proportion of people on the minimum wage than the UK, and their minimum wage was a smaller proportion of median wage.
This was a while ago so that might have changed since I last worked on it.
And it's only if you reduce median salaries that you get that perverse relative poverty effect. If you tax high incomes it has no impact.
You're right about the perverse effect of unemployment though - Scotland had a big productivity boost after 2008 because it was disproportionately low income jobs that went, in contrast to England where it was all the bankers getting hit.
You don't just rustle this kit up out of thin air in a few days; this will have been in the works well into the previous administration. It is a solid sign that Starmer's robust on defending Ukraine though.
And reflects well on Sunak/Shapps that this work continued throughout and in consultation with Labour.
F1: pretty irritated, to be honest. A good Piastri podium tip at around 15 got shafted by the safety car earlier this season and the Piastri win tip at 29 (each way) would've come off if they hadn't ruined his race by strategic incompetence.
Mr. B, alas, I did consider Hulkenberg to be top 6 but when for him to win his group (the others being the Ferraris and Aston Martins). So my bet failed, mostly due to him leaving the handbrake on at the start then getting stuck behind Stroll. He still beat all but Sainz.
F1: pretty irritated, to be honest. A good Piastri podium tip at around 15 got shafted by the safety car earlier this season and the Piastri win tip at 29 (each way) would've come off if they hadn't ruined his race by strategic incompetence.
Mr. B, alas, I did consider Hulkenberg to be top 6 but when for him to win his group (the others being the Ferraris and Aston Martins). So my bet failed, mostly due to him leaving the handbrake on at the start then getting stuck behind Stroll. He still beat all but Sainz.
Sorry to hear that - I was wrongly looking at the top 6 market on Betfair.
You don't just rustle this kit up out of thin air in a few days; this will have been in the works well into the previous administration. It is a solid sign that Starmer's robust on defending Ukraine though.
Expected, but nonetheless good.
I'm more interested to see if they pick up on the Blair institute paper on defence procurement. (Which was somewhat better than its usual waffle.)
Yes. 'How can anyone govern a country with 246 varieties of cheese? '.
I think that was de Gaulle? Worth noting that Britain has more varieties of cheese than France. I would also argue Britain has better cheese. Though possibly that's just an instinctive reaction and in all honesty at ten to seven in the morning I can muster no enthusiasm for cheese of any stripe.
You don't just rustle this kit up out of thin air in a few days; this will have been in the works well into the previous administration. It is a solid sign that Starmer's robust on defending Ukraine though.
And reflects well on Sunak/Shapps that this work continued throughout and in consultation with Labour.
Yes it reflects well on both parties, the brass hats, and the permanent defence CS, that military matters be handed over quickly and thoroughly. I suspect that Starmer and Healy will have been getting daily briefings on Ukraine for the past few weeks.
I have pretty low expectations for the new government, but good to see them exceeded on this subject and that both parties show their commitment - something that we don’t see everywhere.
While Peter Kyle’s new job at Science and Innovation saw him handing a big trophy to Lewis Hamilton yesterday, in a festival of motorsport at Silverstone that serves as a showcase for British technology, John Healy had somewhat more important things to do.
So, Bridget Phillipson has been in office 72 hours and has already made her first disastrous mistake.
Rule 1 of HR - if you want to put out a press statement asking for more staff, do not put it out through the organisation whose corruption, mismanagement and incompetence is leading them to quit.
The new education secretary has begun work to recruit 6,500 teachers, the Department for Education (DfE) said.
9. Emma Raducanu had a good run to the last 16. She wasn’t at quite the same level yesterday but she should be proud of her performances. If she maintains this trajectory she’ll be back as a serious force in the women’s game. And only 2 top ten seeds now remain. Elena Rybakina for the title?
So, Bridget Phillipson has been in office 72 hours and has already made her first disastrous mistake.
Rule 1 of HR - if you want to put out a press statement asking for more staff, do not put it out through the organisation whose corruption, mismanagement and incompetence is leading them to quit.
The new education secretary has begun work to recruit 6,500 teachers, the Department for Education (DfE) said.
Oh come on. We all enjoy your pathological hatred of the DfE but it's hardly a glaring error to use the civil service department responsible for education to recruit more teachers.
Labour might have been left a mess but they've got to work with what they've got. If no progress has been made 5 years down the line then criticism is fine, and there is a good chance they will lose the election based on that record. But at least give them 6 months?!
Yes. 'How can anyone govern a country with 246 varieties of cheese? '.
I think that was de Gaulle? Worth noting that Britain has more varieties of cheese than France. I would also argue Britain has better cheese. Though possibly that's just an instinctive reaction and in all honesty at ten to seven in the morning I can muster no enthusiasm for cheese of any stripe.
Striped cheese? What sort of hooligan are you man?!
Yes. 'How can anyone govern a country with 246 varieties of cheese? '.
I think that was de Gaulle? Worth noting that Britain has more varieties of cheese than France. I would also argue Britain has better cheese. Though possibly that's just an instinctive reaction and in all honesty at ten to seven in the morning I can muster no enthusiasm for cheese of any stripe.
I don’t think we have better cheese (how would one ever measure - though trying would be fun) but I do think having less of a rigid regional cheese culture has allowed producers in the UK to innovate more. So we've ended up with cheese to rival the best anywhere.
4) It's not PR in France though. The FN would've got more seats if it was.
5) This has become a bit of a meme. I don't believe it - I think Labour could have easily got 45% + in this election if the Tories had put up a fight and tactical voting wasn't so highly tuned. Labour's vote efficiency wasn't a fluke - people came out to vote for them when it mattered.
Just look at the Corbyn/May example. And the ratio of Tory:Labour vote share is the same as what Johnson got in 2019, just inverted.
Meanwhile, I intend to back away from this forum. It’s not a safe space for a woman.
Rather too many shouty old (right-wing) men for me to feel safely at home and a little too much smuttiness imho. Worst of all that prat Sean Thomas is allowed to run amok with his vile subversive Trumpian pro-Putin conspiracy lunacy. Once again @Leon has been shown to talk a pile of crap - this week about France, last week about Britain. The guy’s a saddo who tells everyone he’s really clever (clue, if you are you don’t feel the need to say so) and spends all his time on a minor political website (clue, if you’re really successful you don’t have time to be on here 24/7).
But I wish the rest of you well. I’ll glance in occasionally. There are some really lovely, decent, people on this place from across the political spectrum and it has been wonderful to swap ideas, betting tips and, above all, to learn from you.
France is now without a government and it is hard to see how it gets one in the foreseeable. We will just have to hope that the Olympics pass off peacefully without any rapid decisions being needed. Impasse at this stage for another year is definitely suboptimal. It is not obvious who, if anyone, Starmer is going to find to speak to about any new ideas re the small boats crossings.
The right have been defeated by a process that is designed to stop extremists on either wing doing too well but they have increased their representation by 54 seats. This reflects the number of areas where they are so strong that even an anti-extreme unity candidate cannot beat them. Their final representation significantly underplays their strength.
4) It's not PR in France though. The FN would've got more seats if it was.
5) This has become a bit of a meme. I don't believe it - I think Labour could have easily got 45% + in this election if the Tories had put up a fight and tactical voting wasn't so highly tuned. Labour's vote efficiency wasn't a fluke - people came out to vote for them when it mattered.
Just look at the Corbyn/May example. And the ratio of Tory:Labour vote share is the same as what Johnson got in 2019, just inverted.
5 - nice to know whatyou think. Heres what the guy who does elections for a living thinks
Yes. 'How can anyone govern a country with 246 varieties of cheese? '.
I think that was de Gaulle? Worth noting that Britain has more varieties of cheese than France. I would also argue Britain has better cheese. Though possibly that's just an instinctive reaction and in all honesty at ten to seven in the morning I can muster no enthusiasm for cheese of any stripe.
Striped cheese? What sort of hooligan are you man?!
"God Save the Cheese"
Held aloft by a Swiss supporter during our national anthem
So, Bridget Phillipson has been in office 72 hours and has already made her first disastrous mistake.
Rule 1 of HR - if you want to put out a press statement asking for more staff, do not put it out through the organisation whose corruption, mismanagement and incompetence is leading them to quit.
The new education secretary has begun work to recruit 6,500 teachers, the Department for Education (DfE) said.
Oh come on. We all enjoy your pathological hatred of the DfE but it's hardly a glaring error to use the civil service department responsible for education to recruit more teachers.
Labour might have been left a mess but they've got to work with what they've got. If no progress has been made 5 years down the line then criticism is fine, and there is a good chance they will lose the election based on that record. But at least give them 6 months?!
They are one of the key reasons we've lost so many, through first messing up teacher training and second their behaviour during lockdown.
The point is, nobody in education will take them seriously on anything they say. They've messed up too badly and too often. So immediately, by working through them she's put herself at a significant disadvantage. This would have been better put out directly from her own Twitter feed.
To be honest, if she feels unable to work outside their structures I would have said she'd be better off promising to do nothing at all. A period of quiet, meaning reduced workload and greater certainty, would be better for both recruitment and retention than any number of initiatives from a bunch of ignorant civil servants.
4) It's not PR in France though. The FN would've got more seats if it was.
5) This has become a bit of a meme. I don't believe it - I think Labour could have easily got 45% + in this election if the Tories had put up a fight and tactical voting wasn't so highly tuned. Labour's vote efficiency wasn't a fluke - people came out to vote for them when it mattered.
Just look at the Corbyn/May example. And the ratio of Tory:Labour vote share is the same as what Johnson got in 2019, just inverted.
I don't think you can argue that the Corbyn and Starmer Labour parties are similar enough to make this point.
Stamer has successfully made the Labour party appeal to the right sort of voter to get a very efficient majority.
But he doesn't have the mass appeal of Corbyn.
And if (as I worry is the case) the sort of voter bloc that will elect Starmer or Cameron is shrinking, then the meme stands - five more years of centrism blown off course by events could create a situation like that of France currently.
4) It's not PR in France though. The FN would've got more seats if it was.
5) This has become a bit of a meme. I don't believe it - I think Labour could have easily got 45% + in this election if the Tories had put up a fight and tactical voting wasn't so highly tuned. Labour's vote efficiency wasn't a fluke - people came out to vote for them when it mattered.
Just look at the Corbyn/May example. And the ratio of Tory:Labour vote share is the same as what Johnson got in 2019, just inverted.
5 - nice to know whatyou think. Heres what the guy who does elections for a living thinks
In England and Wales, Labour only gained support where the party appeared best-placed locally to defeat the Conservatives. In seats where it started off in second place to a Tory incumbent its vote increased on average by six points. Elsewhere in England where the opportunity to turf out a Tory did not exist, Labour’s support was markedly down – on average by five points.
Yes. 'How can anyone govern a country with 246 varieties of cheese? '.
I think that was de Gaulle? Worth noting that Britain has more varieties of cheese than France. I would also argue Britain has better cheese. Though possibly that's just an instinctive reaction and in all honesty at ten to seven in the morning I can muster no enthusiasm for cheese of any stripe.
I don’t think we have better cheese (how would one ever measure - though trying would be fun) but I do think having less of a rigid regional cheese culture has allowed producers in the UK to innovate more. So we've ended up with cheese to rival the best anywhere.
On the other hand, that sort of creative destruction in the cheese market leads to the abject horror of Wensleydale with cranberries in it.
Almost any sort of stifling rigidity is worth it to prevent that sort of thing.
Interesting to see the stats behind the devastating defeat for Le Pen.
2007 - 0 Seats. 2012 - 2 Seats. 2017 - 8 Seats <- We in the UK are Here. 2022 - 89 Seats. 2024 - 142 Seats.
Le Pens Lot will sit happily on the opposition benches munching popcorn as the rest try and form a coalition of chaos offering all sorts of free owls and pensions at 60 that the country dosen't have the money to fund.
4) It's not PR in France though. The FN would've got more seats if it was.
5) This has become a bit of a meme. I don't believe it - I think Labour could have easily got 45% + in this election if the Tories had put up a fight and tactical voting wasn't so highly tuned. Labour's vote efficiency wasn't a fluke - people came out to vote for them when it mattered.
Just look at the Corbyn/May example. And the ratio of Tory:Labour vote share is the same as what Johnson got in 2019, just inverted.
I don't think you can argue that the Corbyn and Starmer Labour parties are similar enough to make this point.
Stamer has successfully made the Labour party appeal to the right sort of voter to get a very efficient majority.
But he doesn't have the mass appeal of Corbyn.
And if (as I worry is the case) the sort of voter bloc that will elect Starmer or Cameron is shrinking, then the meme stands - five more years of centrism blown off course by events could create a situation like that of France currently.
I agree with that. It's how much weight you put on the following factors:
1) The inevitability of the vote suppressing turnout and giving lefties an excuse to vote for other parties 2) The extraordinary success of the Lib Dems hoovering up Labour tactical votes 3) Simply not that popular, particularly compared with Corbyn 4) Ming Vase
As of now Les Republicains and RN and independent right have 199 seats combined, more than the NFP left block and independent left combined on 180 seats or Macron's coalition and the independent centre on 155 seats combined.
So while a disappointment for RN overall coming third much better for the combined right which currently has most seats
Yes but. That's the LR which refused to cooperate with RN. You don't get to add them together when some of LR did choose that route.
You do when most of them wouldn't touch Melenchon with a barge pole and most of their voters would even vote for Le Pen over Melenchon. Now LR may co operate with Macron's block but not with NFP
LR were big losers, down another 27 seats to 39. Independent right (some of whom are very right), took 27. Effectively, France’s right wing vote has converged on RN and allies, who took 37%, and 142 seats. That means they’re likely to eclipse LR totally, in regional and local elections, in due course.
I think it unlikely that an alliance of Centre and Left will hold together forever. Sooner or later, the right will win.
So, Bridget Phillipson has been in office 72 hours and has already made her first disastrous mistake.
Rule 1 of HR - if you want to put out a press statement asking for more staff, do not put it out through the organisation whose corruption, mismanagement and incompetence is leading them to quit.
The new education secretary has begun work to recruit 6,500 teachers, the Department for Education (DfE) said.
Oh come on. We all enjoy your pathological hatred of the DfE but it's hardly a glaring error to use the civil service department responsible for education to recruit more teachers.
Labour might have been left a mess but they've got to work with what they've got. If no progress has been made 5 years down the line then criticism is fine, and there is a good chance they will lose the election based on that record. But at least give them 6 months?!
They are one of the key reasons we've lost so many, through first messing up teacher training and second their behaviour during lockdown.
The point is, nobody in education will take them seriously on anything they say. They've messed up too badly and too often. So immediately, by working through them she's put herself at a significant disadvantage. This would have been better put out directly from her own Twitter feed.
To be honest, if she feels unable to work outside their structures I would have said she'd be better off promising to do nothing at all. A period of quiet, meaning reduced workload and greater certainty, would be better for both recruitment and retention than any number of initiatives from a bunch of ignorant civil servants.
If teachers are so shallow as to find offence that the BRAND NEW education secretary is using the structures of the DfE to conduct her work then frankly I would side with the DfE.
If you are serious about reforming the DfE, it's probably not a great idea to immediately go to war with them.
Yes. 'How can anyone govern a country with 246 varieties of cheese? '.
I think that was de Gaulle? Worth noting that Britain has more varieties of cheese than France. I would also argue Britain has better cheese. Though possibly that's just an instinctive reaction and in all honesty at ten to seven in the morning I can muster no enthusiasm for cheese of any stripe.
Striped cheese? What sort of hooligan are you man?!
We have yet to see the detail, but at least two cheers for Rachel Reeves for grasping the planning nettle right at the start.
It's policy, rather than legislative change - but that does mean it can be implemented immediately.
A good first step. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckkg2l1rpr4o ..She and her team worked through the weekend on this speech to business leaders and investors who have stalled investment in Britain in recent years amid the political chaos of the post-Brexit years and the Liz Truss mini-budget. Ms Reeves is expected to announce some immediate loosening of planning red tape that has held back construction, infrastructure, and the energy grid. It will be done in the hope that investors will unleash tens of billions of pounds of investment in green industry and housebuilding. Mandatory housebuilding targets are also expected to return. The Labour manifesto already promised development on so-called “grey belt” land - which are poor-quality areas in the green belt. A moratorium on onshore wind power is expected to be lifted, and there will be extra funds for hundreds of new planning officers. She told the BBC on Friday that she was “willing to have a fight” with those who have delayed and rejected housebuilding and infrastructure investment in the planning system...
For those wondering, I shall be having some Red Leicester today.
I shall be opening the popcorn, 5 years of Starmer ahead.
What a shame.
It really is time to look elsewhere when this is the quality of discourse on PB. And I don't mean Morris's revelation, although I am unsure why I would need to know.
4) It's not PR in France though. The FN would've got more seats if it was.
5) This has become a bit of a meme. I don't believe it - I think Labour could have easily got 45% + in this election if the Tories had put up a fight and tactical voting wasn't so highly tuned. Labour's vote efficiency wasn't a fluke - people came out to vote for them when it mattered.
Just look at the Corbyn/May example. And the ratio of Tory:Labour vote share is the same as what Johnson got in 2019, just inverted.
The potential threat to Labour comes not from numbers but from the volatility.
Yes, they won on an extraordinarily low share - in part because their near-guaranteed win allowed many minor party supporters, for once, to vote for their first choice. Our system funnels people towards the two main parties, for which there is little real affection. Of the votes they did get, a quarter were from people who would rather vote for someone else - but so it was for the Tories who, despite their own extraordinary unpopularity, still got 20% of their support tactically.
Labour has the power, and that will reshape everything over coming years. We're all still falling a little into the trap of analysing things through the prism of what was before - but that's all swept away.
The longer term threats to Labour arise from the left chipping away at its base - the immediate imperative is Gaza which we'd expect to be a temporary one, but the performance of the Greens and other left wing candidates in safer Labour areas suggest they may not be able to take all of these for granted (cf. Streeting).
And, of course, Farage - if we believe what he promised at his declaration.
After all the UK news, a quick catch up on things in Tallinn. The PM, Kaja Kallas, has now been confirmed as the new External Affairs Commissioner, and is packing up to return to Brussels, where she was previously an MEP. This was of course expected, and the Liberal, Reform, party moved swiftly to replace her with Kristen Michal, the Environment minister, and a Reform Party bureaucrat. He is, as they say, a safe pair of hands. The end of Kaja Kallas mandate, is actually the end of her third government, and will require the renegotiation of the coalition agreement. No one wants early elections, but there will be some fireworks simply to allow the other two parties in the government to demonstrate their independence.
Much more fun as the been the break up of the far right EKRE party, which has now splintered into 2 warring factions. This is mostly because the family of the founder of the party, controversial diplomat Märt Helme, have tried to expel those who were criticizing the leadership of Martin Helme, the son of Märt. Hilariously, the youth wing seems to have split en bloc to join the rebels in a new ERK party (see what they did there?). In any event the tide has been going out for the far right in Estonia for some time, bu the mainstream Conservative party, Isamaa, can hardly believe their luck.
So Estonia´s change in government will see a new PM, but not much else. Estonia will be less vocal, but no less supportive of Ukraine.
After the fall of PiS in Poland, the situation in central Europe is increasingly inimicable to the blandishments of the far right. The cynics (or the well informed) suggest that this is because the flow of funds from the Kremlin has been severely diminished. Given that Le Pen has quite openly received support and funds from Moscow, it is hard for those of us who believe in justice for Ukraine not to think that good work is being done in protecting our democracies from the insidious threats of Putin.
As we enjoy the long bright days of a warm Nordic summer in Tallinn, it feels just a smidgeon safer after the news from London and from Paris. The battles in the South are just as brutal as ever, but Russia is by no means having it all its own way. There are a few sparks of hope in the air.
Rioting when you get the result you want is beyond stupid.
I always think shop fitting or making public furniture must be a great business to be in France. Normally you flog a bus shelter and perhaps in 5 years the council want to buy a new one, in France every other week.
Especially when you give your employees a “Riot Day” once a month - bit like a Blanket Day, but with some physical exercise, getting out of the house, shopping…
As of now Les Republicains and RN and independent right have 199 seats combined, more than the NFP left block and independent left combined on 180 seats or Macron's coalition and the independent centre on 155 seats combined.
So while a disappointment for RN overall coming third much better for the combined right which currently has most seats
Yes but. That's the LR which refused to cooperate with RN. You don't get to add them together when some of LR did choose that route.
You do when most of them wouldn't touch Melenchon with a barge pole and most of their voters would even vote for Le Pen over Melenchon. Now LR may co operate with Macron's block but not with NFP
LR were big losers, down another 27 seats to 39. Independent right (some of whom are very right), took 27. Effectively, France’s right wing vote has converged on RN and allies, who took 37%, and 142 seats. That means they’re likely to eclipse LR totally, in regional and local elections, in due course.
I think it unlikely that an alliance of Centre and Left will hold together forever. Sooner or later, the right will win.
More likely the far right will split as some of their members get tempted by power.
For those wondering, I shall be having some Red Leicester today.
I shall be opening the popcorn, 5 years of Starmer ahead.
What a shame.
It really is time to look elsewhere when this is the quality of discourse on PB. And I don't mean Morris's revelation, although I am unsure why I would need to know.
The shoe is on the other foot now. Conservative opponents have had fifteen years to carp and whine about the Conservatives; sometimes wrongly, but increasingly with good cause (especially during the last five years).
Now Labour have to govern, and they will also suffer issues that Conservatives (and other opponents) will enjoy - or even take glee about. Labour supporters (*) should remember the way they've acted over the last few years, and expect similar in return.
Personally, I wish Starmer's government well. I don't hold out massive hope for them - if only because there are no easy answers to the problems facing the country - but if they fail, so does the country.
For those wondering, I shall be having some Red Leicester today.
I shall be opening the popcorn, 5 years of Starmer ahead.
What a shame.
It really is time to look elsewhere when this is the quality of discourse on PB. And I don't mean Morris's revelation, although I am unsure why I would need to know.
The shoe is on the other foot now. Conservative opponents have had fifteen years to carp and whine about the Conservatives; sometimes wrongly, but increasingly with good cause (especially during the last five years).
Now Labour have to govern, and they will also suffer issues that Conservatives (and other opponents) will enjoy - or even take glee about. Labour supporters (*) should remember the way they've acted over the last few years, and expect similar in return.
Personally, I wish Starmer's government well. I don't hold out massive hope for them - if only because there are no easy answers to the problems facing the country - but if they fail, so does the country.
(*) Not saying that's you...
Posters are perfectly entitled to call whatever government of whatever stripe to book. I was highly critical of Johnson's outrageous behaviour and performative management of government, and also Corbyn's calamitous Opposition so you are perfectly entitled to call me out for that. But this administration hasn't started and certain posters are already coming out with truncated Telegraph editorials based on nothing more than their bright blue scarf is tied too tightly around their neck thus cutting off blood supply to the brain.
I agree with you let's give Starmer a chance, we need him to succeed, not least because of the nature of what is left of the Parliamentary Conservative Party they are likely to select someone wholly unsuitable to become their next Prime Minister.
As of now Les Republicains and RN and independent right have 199 seats combined, more than the NFP left block and independent left combined on 180 seats or Macron's coalition and the independent centre on 155 seats combined.
So while a disappointment for RN overall coming third much better for the combined right which currently has most seats
Yes but. That's the LR which refused to cooperate with RN. You don't get to add them together when some of LR did choose that route.
You do when most of them wouldn't touch Melenchon with a barge pole and most of their voters would even vote for Le Pen over Melenchon. Now LR may co operate with Macron's block but not with NFP
LR were big losers, down another 27 seats to 39. Independent right (some of whom are very right), took 27. Effectively, France’s right wing vote has converged on RN and allies, who took 37%, and 142 seats. That means they’re likely to eclipse LR totally, in regional and local elections, in due course.
I think it unlikely that an alliance of Centre and Left will hold together forever. Sooner or later, the right will win.
RN has just proved it cannot win a majority, even when favourite to do so, only LR can
Meanwhile, I intend to back away from this forum. It’s not a safe space for a woman.
Rather too many shouty old (right-wing) men for me to feel safely at home and a little too much smuttiness imho. Worst of all that prat Sean Thomas is allowed to run amok with his vile subversive Trumpian pro-Putin conspiracy lunacy. Once again @Leon has been shown to talk a pile of crap - this week about France, last week about Britain. The guy’s a saddo who tells everyone he’s really clever (clue, if you are you don’t feel the need to say so) and spends all his time on a minor political website (clue, if you’re really successful you don’t have time to be on here 24/7).
But I wish the rest of you well. I’ll glance in occasionally. There are some really lovely, decent, people on this place from across the political spectrum and it has been wonderful to swap ideas, betting tips and, above all, to learn from you.
xx
Its words on a forum - how is anything on PB 'not a safe space for a woman'? All the posters could be women for all I know. You may be or may not be. Its mostly anonymous, although some like to dox others (even if they are right, convention is not too). You can be just as abrasive as any other poster on here. If you don't like it, don't bother, but don't make up some rubbish about safe spaces. Its words.
For those wondering, I shall be having some Red Leicester today.
I shall be opening the popcorn, 5 years of Starmer ahead.
What a shame.
It really is time to look elsewhere when this is the quality of discourse on PB. And I don't mean Morris's revelation, although I am unsure why I would need to know.
The shoe is on the other foot now. Conservative opponents have had fifteen years to carp and whine about the Conservatives; sometimes wrongly, but increasingly with good cause (especially during the last five years).
Now Labour have to govern, and they will also suffer issues that Conservatives (and other opponents) will enjoy - or even take glee about. Labour supporters (*) should remember the way they've acted over the last few years, and expect similar in return.
Personally, I wish Starmer's government well. I don't hold out massive hope for them - if only because there are no easy answers to the problems facing the country - but if they fail, so does the country.
(*) Not saying that's you...
Posters are perfectly entitled to call whatever government of whatever stripe to book. I was highly critical of Johnson's outrageous behaviour and performative management of government, and also Corbyn's calamitous Opposition so you are perfectly entitled to call me out for that. But this administration hasn't started and certain posters are already coming out with truncated Telegraph editorials based on nothing more than their bright blue scarf is tied too tightly around their neck thus cutting off blood supply to the brain.
I agree with you let's give Starmer a chance, we need him to succeed, not least because of the nature of what is left of the Parliamentary Conservative Party they are likely to select someone wholly unsuitable to become their next Prime Minister.
That they will not do. They might conceivably appoint someone who isn't much good, maybe Ester Mcvey. I think it could be Geoffrey Cox if he would do it for 30 months. All the other super nonentities have to prove their ability in opposition. The bigger issue will be whether to go for impure success or pure failure, the strategy of the Gaullistes when confronted with Macron. Is Sarkosy destined to be France's last good president ?
For those wondering, I shall be having some Red Leicester today.
I shall be opening the popcorn, 5 years of Starmer ahead.
What a shame.
It really is time to look elsewhere when this is the quality of discourse on PB. And I don't mean Morris's revelation, although I am unsure why I would need to know.
The shoe is on the other foot now. Conservative opponents have had fifteen years to carp and whine about the Conservatives; sometimes wrongly, but increasingly with good cause (especially during the last five years).
Now Labour have to govern, and they will also suffer issues that Conservatives (and other opponents) will enjoy - or even take glee about. Labour supporters (*) should remember the way they've acted over the last few years, and expect similar in return.
Personally, I wish Starmer's government well. I don't hold out massive hope for them - if only because there are no easy answers to the problems facing the country - but if they fail, so does the country.
(*) Not saying that's you...
Posters are perfectly entitled to call whatever government of whatever stripe to book. I was highly critical of Johnson's outrageous behaviour and performative management of government, and also Corbyn's calamitous Opposition so you are perfectly entitled to call me out for that. But this administration hasn't started and certain posters are already coming out with truncated Telegraph editorials based on nothing more than their bright blue scarf is tied too tightly around their neck thus cutting off blood supply to the brain.
I agree with you let's give Starmer a chance, we need him to succeed, not least because of the nature of what is left of the Parliamentary Conservative Party they are likely to select someone wholly unsuitable to become their next Prime Minister.
That they will not do. They might conceivably appoint someone who isn't much good, maybe Ester Mcvey. I think it could be Geoffrey Cox if he would do it for 30 months. All the other super nonentities have to prove their ability in opposition. The bigger issue will be whether to go for impure success or pure failure, the strategy of the Gaullistes when confronted with Macron. Is Sarkosy destined to be France's last good president ?
The system to elect the leader means that the membership will get to pick out of 2 at the end, so it'll rely on the MPs selecting a shortlist with no duffers. Even though they picked Truss, I can't see the membership being happy about another unopposed coronation as per Sunak and May. As for Cox, he'd have to give up his p/t job and he's very unlikely to do that.
Comments
"Sean Thomas
My day in Le Pen land"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-day-in-le-pen-land/
At least the Far Left and the Far Right agree on one thing: it's that that nice Mr Putin should be allowed to do what he wants in Ukraine.
I am going to do an article on the dangers of oppositionalism.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/iranian-naval-destroyer-capsizes-sinks-155000565.html
This class of frigates appears to be rather unlucky. This is the second to be sunk (after Damavand sunk in 2018); and the Shiraz overturned *during construction* and is being 'repaired'. Not a good record for a newish class of ship of which there are five members (depending how you count the replacements...)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moudge-class_frigate
Congratulations to new Defence Sec John Healy, who was in Odessa yesterday and announced more military aid to Ukraine.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1810025490977308956
This was a while ago so that might have changed since I last worked on it.
And it's only if you reduce median salaries that you get that perverse relative poverty effect. If you tax high incomes it has no impact.
You're right about the perverse effect of unemployment though - Scotland had a big productivity boost after 2008 because it was disproportionately low income jobs that went, in contrast to England where it was all the bankers getting hit.
F1: pretty irritated, to be honest. A good Piastri podium tip at around 15 got shafted by the safety car earlier this season and the Piastri win tip at 29 (each way) would've come off if they hadn't ruined his race by strategic incompetence.
Mr. B, alas, I did consider Hulkenberg to be top 6 but when for him to win his group (the others being the Ferraris and Aston Martins). So my bet failed, mostly due to him leaving the handbrake on at the start then getting stuck behind Stroll. He still beat all but Sainz.
I'm more interested to see if they pick up on the Blair institute paper on defence procurement. (Which was somewhat better than its usual waffle.)
I got a lot of luck last year, but this season seems to be the other side of the see-saw.
Worth noting that Britain has more varieties of cheese than France. I would also argue Britain has better cheese. Though possibly that's just an instinctive reaction and in all honesty at ten to seven in the morning I can muster no enthusiasm for cheese of any stripe.
I have pretty low expectations for the new government, but good to see them exceeded on this subject and that both parties show their commitment - something that we don’t see everywhere.
While Peter Kyle’s new job at Science and Innovation saw him handing a big trophy to Lewis Hamilton yesterday, in a festival of motorsport at Silverstone that serves as a showcase for British technology, John Healy had somewhat more important things to do.
A good day and a good week. A few reflections
1. The Far Right always flatter to deceive in France, as I kept telling you
2. France generally leans Left
3. This is not to underestimate the current presence of the Far Right in western Europe. But they sometimes shout louder than their actual following
4. Those of you who are fans of Proportional Representation can now watch it in real life across the Channel
5. Labour’s vote share is fragile. Yes, they won a spectacularly smart marginals operation but they need to deliver or …
6. The situation in the US Presidentials is almost beyond absurd and remains turbulent for the western world
7. @Leon is full of shit. And nasty shit at that.
Rule 1 of HR - if you want to put out a press statement asking for more staff, do not put it out through the organisation whose corruption, mismanagement and incompetence is leading them to quit.
The new education secretary has begun work to recruit 6,500 teachers, the Department for Education (DfE) said.
Education Secretary Phillipson begins push to recruit 6,500 new teachers https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clky2zllpw2o
8. the pollsters in the UK were terrible
9. Emma Raducanu had a good run to the last 16. She wasn’t at quite the same level yesterday but she should be proud of her performances. If she maintains this trajectory she’ll be back as a serious force in the women’s game. And only 2 top ten seeds now remain. Elena Rybakina for the title?
Labour might have been left a mess but they've got to work with what they've got. If no progress has been made 5 years down the line then criticism is fine, and there is a good chance they will lose the election based on that record. But at least give them 6 months?!
5) This has become a bit of a meme. I don't believe it - I think Labour could have easily got 45% + in this election if the Tories had put up a fight and tactical voting wasn't so highly tuned. Labour's vote efficiency wasn't a fluke - people came out to vote for them when it mattered.
Just look at the Corbyn/May example. And the ratio of Tory:Labour vote share is the same as what Johnson got in 2019, just inverted.
Rather too many shouty old (right-wing) men for me to feel safely at home and a little too much smuttiness imho. Worst of all that prat Sean Thomas is allowed to run amok with his vile subversive Trumpian pro-Putin conspiracy lunacy. Once again @Leon has been shown to talk a pile of crap - this week about France, last week about Britain. The guy’s a saddo who tells everyone he’s really clever (clue, if you are you don’t feel the need to say so) and spends all his time on a minor political website (clue, if you’re really successful you don’t have time to be on here 24/7).
But I wish the rest of you well. I’ll glance in occasionally. There are some really lovely, decent, people on this place from across the political spectrum and it has been wonderful to swap ideas, betting tips and, above all, to learn from you.
xx
The right have been defeated by a process that is designed to stop extremists on either wing doing too well but they have increased their representation by 54 seats. This reflects the number of areas where they are so strong that even an anti-extreme unity candidate cannot beat them. Their final representation significantly underplays their strength.
And the Far Right were defeated. It’s magnifique.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/06/britain-did-not-flock-to-labour-election/
Held aloft by a Swiss supporter during our national anthem
The point is, nobody in education will take them seriously on anything they say. They've messed up too badly and too often. So immediately, by working through them she's put herself at a significant disadvantage. This would have been better put out directly from her own Twitter feed.
To be honest, if she feels unable to work outside their structures I would have said she'd be better off promising to do nothing at all. A period of quiet, meaning reduced workload and greater certainty, would be better for both recruitment and retention than any number of initiatives from a bunch of ignorant civil servants.
Stamer has successfully made the Labour party appeal to the right sort of voter to get a very efficient majority.
But he doesn't have the mass appeal of Corbyn.
And if (as I worry is the case) the sort of voter bloc that will elect Starmer or Cameron is shrinking, then the meme stands - five more years of centrism blown off course by events could create a situation like that of France currently.
In England and Wales, Labour only gained support where the party appeared best-placed locally to defeat the Conservatives. In seats where it started off in second place to a Tory incumbent its vote increased on average by six points. Elsewhere in England where the opportunity to turf out a Tory did not exist, Labour’s support was markedly down – on average by five points.
Almost any sort of stifling rigidity is worth it to prevent that sort of thing.
2007 - 0 Seats.
2012 - 2 Seats.
2017 - 8 Seats <- We in the UK are Here.
2022 - 89 Seats.
2024 - 142 Seats.
Le Pens Lot will sit happily on the opposition benches munching popcorn as the rest try and form a coalition of chaos offering all sorts of free owls and pensions at 60 that the country dosen't have the money to fund.
1) The inevitability of the vote suppressing turnout and giving lefties an excuse to vote for other parties
2) The extraordinary success of the Lib Dems hoovering up Labour tactical votes
3) Simply not that popular, particularly compared with Corbyn
4) Ming Vase
I think it unlikely that an alliance of Centre and Left will hold together forever. Sooner or later, the right will win.
If you are serious about reforming the DfE, it's probably not a great idea to immediately go to war with them.
NEW THREAD
A good first step.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckkg2l1rpr4o
..She and her team worked through the weekend on this speech to business leaders and investors who have stalled investment in Britain in recent years amid the political chaos of the post-Brexit years and the Liz Truss mini-budget.
Ms Reeves is expected to announce some immediate loosening of planning red tape that has held back construction, infrastructure, and the energy grid.
It will be done in the hope that investors will unleash tens of billions of pounds of investment in green industry and housebuilding.
Mandatory housebuilding targets are also expected to return.
The Labour manifesto already promised development on so-called “grey belt” land - which are poor-quality areas in the green belt.
A moratorium on onshore wind power is expected to be lifted, and there will be extra funds for hundreds of new planning officers.
She told the BBC on Friday that she was “willing to have a fight” with those who have delayed and rejected housebuilding and infrastructure investment in the planning system...
It really is time to look elsewhere when this is the quality of discourse on PB. And I don't mean Morris's revelation, although I am unsure why I would need to know.
Yes, they won on an extraordinarily low share - in part because their near-guaranteed win allowed many minor party supporters, for once, to vote for their first choice. Our system funnels people towards the two main parties, for which there is little real affection. Of the votes they did get, a quarter were from people who would rather vote for someone else - but so it was for the Tories who, despite their own extraordinary unpopularity, still got 20% of their support tactically.
Labour has the power, and that will reshape everything over coming years. We're all still falling a little into the trap of analysing things through the prism of what was before - but that's all swept away.
The longer term threats to Labour arise from the left chipping away at its base - the immediate imperative is Gaza which we'd expect to be a temporary one, but the performance of the Greens and other left wing candidates in safer Labour areas suggest they may not be able to take all of these for granted (cf. Streeting).
And, of course, Farage - if we believe what he promised at his declaration.
Much more fun as the been the break up of the far right EKRE party, which has now splintered into 2 warring factions. This is mostly because the family of the founder of the party, controversial diplomat Märt Helme, have tried to expel those who were criticizing the leadership of Martin Helme, the son of Märt. Hilariously, the youth wing seems to have split en bloc to join the rebels in a new ERK party (see what they did there?). In any event the tide has been going out for the far right in Estonia for some time, bu the mainstream Conservative party, Isamaa, can hardly believe their luck.
So Estonia´s change in government will see a new PM, but not much else. Estonia will be less vocal, but no less supportive of Ukraine.
After the fall of PiS in Poland, the situation in central Europe is increasingly inimicable to the blandishments of the far right. The cynics (or the well informed) suggest that this is because the flow of funds from the Kremlin has been severely diminished. Given that Le Pen has quite openly received support and funds from Moscow, it is hard for those of us who believe in justice for Ukraine not to think that good work is being done in protecting our democracies from the insidious threats of Putin.
As we enjoy the long bright days of a warm Nordic summer in Tallinn, it feels just a smidgeon safer after the news from London and from Paris. The battles in the South are just as brutal as ever, but Russia is by no means having it all its own way. There are a few sparks of hope in the air.
People still use blankets?
And presumably a nigh cap and bed socks.
Now Labour have to govern, and they will also suffer issues that Conservatives (and other opponents) will enjoy - or even take glee about. Labour supporters (*) should remember the way they've acted over the last few years, and expect similar in return.
Personally, I wish Starmer's government well. I don't hold out massive hope for them - if only because there are no easy answers to the problems facing the country - but if they fail, so does the country.
(*) Not saying that's you...
I agree with you let's give Starmer a chance, we need him to succeed, not least because of the nature of what is left of the Parliamentary Conservative Party they are likely to select someone wholly unsuitable to become their next Prime Minister.