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Ils ne passeront pas – politicalbetting.com

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  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited July 7
    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Omnium said:

    algarkirk said:

    Maybe the answer is not the Battle of Verdun but use the example of the Treaty of Verdun, in the year 843, and divide France once again into three. As J Caesar said 900 years before that, Gallia est omnis divisa in partes tres.

    Surely a declaration that France is France, and under the steady and reliable hand of KC3. I see they've got the issue over the Atlantic too. The same easy solution.
    Yes. In both rebellious states a reintroduction of a monarchy and the re-establishment of the church at the state religion - Episcopal for the USA, Gallican RC for France - would bring about the dullness required for modest and self controlled democracy.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585
    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    And your evidence for that?
    This is the NPF policy:

    "The NPF, presenting its policies on Friday, said its top priority if elected would be the cost of living crisis, which was “harming the lives and confidence of the French people”. It pledged to cap the price of essential foods, as well as electricity, gas and petrol.

    The parties also said they would immediately reverse the unpopular pension changes pushed through last year by Macron’s government and return the French retirement age to 60, as well as overturning a more recent change to unemployment benefits and introducing a wealth tax.

    They said France’s minimum wage and pension would be raised, while the NPF would also demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, recognise the state of Palestine, continue supplying necessary arms to Ukraine and legislate for carbon neutrality by 2050."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

    So, sounds like good news for Ukraine.

    Indeed I suspect such a manifesto would have done well here last week.

    Vive La France!
    Did Free Owls get a mention?
    I don't think the NPF policies are financially sound, but no worse than Reform or the Greens were.
    Reform and Greens have a total of 9 MPs.

    There's a majority for financially unsound in France.
    Holidayed in Northern Spain last summer, shocked at how cheap it was to eat out. Turns out they'd capped fuel prices and supported the energy companies.

    Of course the UK had an energy cap, and direct consumer subsidies, last year.

    But the problem is not them being used in an emergency but being continually extended in time, size and scope.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,301
    edited July 7
    boulay said:

    If it's true that Le Pen's lot have come third, you've just got to laugh given all the predictions.

    This is heading towards being one of the best political weeks of my long life.

    Spare a thought for me.

    Only the French have given me electoral joy this week.

    FFS, I've had to rely on the French!
    The French AND the British have definitely increased my personally jollity over the 4th of July loooooong weekend!

    Definitely more than anything happening on this side of the Atlantic OR the Pacific.

    Where we're waiting for decision by the Decider-in-Chief = Dr. Jill Biden.
    It’s a good job Dr Jill is a doctor so she will be able to help Joe. She is a doctor isn’t she, like a real doctor and not one of those people who uses the title in a completely inappropriate way?
    (Puts on outraged ex-academia inhabitant hat) It’s the medical doctors who use the title inappropriately I’ll have u no.

    (I don’t get to use the title for either reason fwiw!)
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930
    Leon said:

    The rumoured demise of the mosquito seems to have been greatly exaggerated. At least in the Luberon

    Ouch

    So you don’t like nats or gnats.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited July 7
    dixiedean said:

    "The projected breakdown among the left-wing parties was 68-74 seats for LFI, (Melenchon) 63-69 for the Socialists (basically Labour) 32-36 for the Greens, and 10-12 to the Communists (who are well to the centre of Melenchon).

    The revival of the thought to be deceased Parti Socialiste is the story of this election.
    They'll be back up with LR in terms of representation.

    I have no insight into this, but suspect Macron chooses a socialist as PM and deploys his Renaissance Party to support the PM's agenda as long as it's reasonably moderate.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    edited July 7
    320 results out of 577.
    RN 102.
    NFP 81
    Macron 74
    LR 30
    Righties14
    Lefties 8
    Centrists6
    Regions 4
    And 1 miscellaneous. No idea who they are.
    Important to note. RN started with a big lead. Having got many more elected on the first round.
    Also. Paris and big cities polls stay open 2 hours longer. So these are mostly more rural results.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    Worry not NR fans, it's only a matter of time before they get their chance, according to the BBC anyway.

    'Far right's historic moment may have to wait'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ck7gydwgvy8t?post=asset:76bbf7b0-1298-4db5-83e8-9243bf68b139#post
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,808
    Taz said:

    Raducan’tu loses. Shocked.

    [Vic Reeves voice] UVAVU!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    edited July 7
    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    I won my only serious election bet - against @TimS - and I was right about Biden - and now I’m talking about mosquitoes

    The weird thing is that you’re’ the drama queen, you flounce more than anyone (even me)


    I’m sure you’ll be back, so au revoir, Madame
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    "The projected breakdown among the left-wing parties was 68-74 seats for LFI, (Melenchon) 63-69 for the Socialists (basically Labour) 32-36 for the Greens, and 10-12 to the Communists (who are well to the centre of Melenchon).

    The revival of the thought to be deceased Parti Socialiste is the story of this election.
    They'll be back up with LR in terms of representation.

    I have no insight into this, but suspect Macron chooses a socialist as PM and deploys his Renaissance Party to support the PM's agenda as long as it's reasonably moderate.
    Would not be surprised at all.
  • Keir Starmer has ushered in a new age.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,768
    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Over 50% of your posts are about how much you dislike Leon.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Over 50% of your posts are about how much you dislike Leon.
    TBH I think she’s secretly got a crush
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    From what I can put together it seems like the 'far right' are going to get just under a third of the seats in France, an increase from what they had before, so the suggestion that they have been completely defeated is a bit optimistic.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Leon said:

    I think I’ve actually arrived during the biannual Mosquito Festival

    Mosquitoes have gathered from across the world - India, Malaysia, Egypt, Senegal, famous veterans from Brazil, huge mosquitoes like condors from Indonesia, they’re all here and tonight’s the traditional Bite a Brit opening ceremony

    They are not mosquitos they are secret Russian Microdrones with a biopayload. By tomorrow you will be singing the praises of sundry hard left French pro putin trot parties.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Wot? I can tell Biden is senile without being a "medic" just as I can tell if someone is drunk or asleep or having a grand mal seizure. And it isn't Trumpian to want this recognised, it's Trumpian to hope Biden gets the nomination.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    edited July 7
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    I won my only serious election bet - against @TimS - and I was right about Biden - and now I’m talking about mosquitoes

    The weird thing is that you’re’ the drama queen, you flounce more than anyone (even me)

    I’m sure you’ll be back, so au revoir, Madame
    The worst mosquitos I ever experienced were in Arles, on the edge of the Camargue. Surprised at the Luberon though.

    Where, by the way, the RN seem to have won. In fact the RN have won everywhere that olives grow. And have lost everywhere that cattle graze.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 7

    Worry not NR fans, it's only a matter of time before they get their chance, according to the BBC anyway.

    'Far right's historic moment may have to wait'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ck7gydwgvy8t?post=asset:76bbf7b0-1298-4db5-83e8-9243bf68b139#post

    If they have an unstable coalition involving hordes of corbynite cranks the BBC might have a point.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Your enthusiasm and confidence for the last year or two has been very helpful to a centrist bedwetter like me. I thought I'd end my days under some demented Johnsonian Government without any non- Conservative breaks.

    I don't blame you though, and the reaction to the Conservative hurt on here would be normally be worthy of an arm around the shoulder, but they are so angry, best to leave them be..

    But remember in 2016 when we were hurting, really hurting after the ludicrous Leave vote. Was there any helping hands across the divide? No, we were told "suck it up losers".
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    108/97/91 now.
    Crossover not far off.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Why don't you just ignore people you don't agree with?
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Wot? I can tell Biden is senile without being a "medic" just as I can tell if someone is drunk or asleep or having a grand mal seizure. And it isn't Trumpian to want this recognised, it's Trumpian to hope Biden gets the nomination.
    I don't need to be an anatomist to know that the late Sir Bob Reid had one arm.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    More seriously I think this might be a rare if not unique occasion when @Roger is right

    The name “Le Pen” is simply too toxic, her dad was an actual Nazi apologist who made jokes about gas chambers. It’s very hard to detoxify from that, tho she has had a damn good go, and she is a clever and cunning politician

    Her party and her policies may only succeed, electorally (if they ever do) when they are not tainted by a leader called Le Pen
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Why don't you just ignore people you don't agree with?
    Or just rebut and then leave it and not try to have the last word. Assuming that this isn't all elaborate sock puppetry
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,198

    Worry not NR fans, it's only a matter of time before they get their chance, according to the BBC anyway.

    'Far right's historic moment may have to wait'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ck7gydwgvy8t?post=asset:76bbf7b0-1298-4db5-83e8-9243bf68b139#post

    They’ve been steadily growing over decades, unfortunately.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Rally
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837

    Keir Starmer has ushered in a new age.

    Time will tell, but he does appear to have got through over two full days in office without making any gaffes, which is novel.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    edited July 7
    Leon said:

    More seriously I think this might be a rare if not unique occasion when @Roger is right

    The name “Le Pen” is simply too toxic, her dad was an actual Nazi apologist who made jokes about gas chambers. It’s very hard to detoxify from that, tho she has had a damn good go, and she is a clever and cunning politician

    Her party and her policies may only succeed, electorally (if they ever do) when they are not tainted by a leader called Le Pen

    Think that's true.
    Although Marine wasn't the RN candidate for PM. And neither was Melenchon for the NFP.
  • It really is simple.

    Whatever Leon says will happen, the opposite does.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Your enthusiasm and confidence for the last year or two has been very helpful to a centrist bedwetter like me. I thought I'd end my days under some demented Johnsonian Government without any non- Conservative breaks.

    I don't blame you though, and the reaction to the Conservative hurt on here would be normally be worthy of an arm around the shoulder, but they are so angry, best to leave them be..

    But remember in 2016 when we were hurting, really hurting after the ludicrous Leave vote. Was there any helping hands across the divide? No, we were told "suck it up losers".
    There's never been a time on PB when the abuse hasn't being going both ways on almost any issue.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,160
    Prime Minister Hollande ?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Is it a sign of the Prime Minister's disdain for traditional English values, that he's yet to fill the office of Second Church Estates Commissioner?

    Wicked incompetence? OR visa-versa?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,546

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Your enthusiasm and confidence for the last year or two has been very helpful to a centrist bedwetter like me. I thought I'd end my days under some demented Johnsonian Government without any non- Conservative breaks.

    I don't blame you though, and the reaction to the Conservative hurt on here would be normally be worthy of an arm around the shoulder, but they are so angry, best to leave them be..

    But remember in 2016 when we were hurting, really hurting after the ludicrous Leave vote. Was there any helping hands across the divide? No, we were told "suck it up losers".
    I agree with your last paragraph, except remain<->leave was not a left-right issue, as (say) Corbyn and Rory showed.
  • A few people have shown themselves to be total hypocrites, of course.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,343

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Your enthusiasm and confidence for the last year or two has been very helpful to a centrist bedwetter like me. I thought I'd end my days under some demented Johnsonian Government without any non- Conservative breaks.

    I don't blame you though, and the reaction to the Conservative hurt on here would be normally be worthy of an arm around the shoulder, but they are so angry, best to leave them be..

    But remember in 2016 when we were hurting, really hurting after the ludicrous Leave vote. Was there any helping hands across the divide? No, we were told "suck it up losers".
    There's never been a time on PB when the abuse hasn't being going both ways on almost any issue.
    Quite so.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Over 50% of your posts are about how much you dislike Leon.
    TBH I think she’s secretly got a crush
    To me she is Fanny Price in Of Human Bondage.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585
    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Why don't you just ignore people you don't agree with?
    Because that would not allow Heathener to be the temporary centre of attention.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,775
    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Over 50% of your posts are about how much you dislike Leon.
    Over 50% of Leons posts are about how much he likes Leon. I think I'm spotting something.
  • With the Tories refusing to ban the members from voting, they will end up with some nutter leading them.

    SKS should make changes to remove the membership vote from Labour for good.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651

    A few people have shown themselves to be total hypocrites, of course.

    And the rest of us have managed to keep it hidden ;-)
  • Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Why don't you just ignore people you don't agree with?
    Because that would not allow Heathener to be the temporary centre of attention.
    Leon only comes here for attention...
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    Is it a sign of the Prime Minister's disdain for traditional English values, that he's yet to fill the office of Second Church Estates Commissioner?

    Wicked incompetence? OR visa-versa?

    He is stalling pending instructions from Moscow.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    I won my only serious election bet - against @TimS - and I was right about Biden - and now I’m talking about mosquitoes

    The weird thing is that you’re’ the drama queen, you flounce more than anyone (even me)

    I’m sure you’ll be back, so au revoir, Madame
    The worst mosquitos I ever experienced were in Arles, on the edge of the Camargue. Surprised at the Luberon though.

    Where, by the way, the RN seem to have won. In fact the RN have won everywhere that olives grow. And have lost everywhere that cattle graze.
    What about where poodles poop?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    With the Tories refusing to ban the members from voting, they will end up with some nutter leading them.

    SKS should make changes to remove the membership vote from Labour for good.

    Refusing? Has a decision been made about how the election will be conducted?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,160
    The French counting is impressively quick. I know they use sampling for the exit poll - is the vote electronic, the counts are quicker than Sunderland !
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    dixiedean said:

    108/97/91 now.
    Crossover not far off.

    I hope we have a point where it's neck and neck and neck.
  • RobD said:

    With the Tories refusing to ban the members from voting, they will end up with some nutter leading them.

    SKS should make changes to remove the membership vote from Labour for good.

    Refusing? Has a decision been made about how the election will be conducted?
    Perhaps you should do a bit of news reading.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited July 7
    I was in the gym listening in the municipal sauna to the political discussion. Essentially people were complaining about how the school let children choose their gender at age 5, that there will be no men in 20 years, just people with a penis as masculinity is being destroyed. Then the discussion moved on to how useless EV's are and the injustice of 'road tax', only 17% of it apparently gets spent on repairing the roads, everything else is spent on other things.

    This did serve to reinforce my sense that the views held by the Reform party are quite widespread. It used to be that the Conservative party represented them but they went 'woke' in 2021 and I think this is a big historic cause of the current popularity of the Reform party. Had the tories just stuck consistently with the strategy set out in 2019 they may be in a better position now.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    darkage said:

    From what I can put together it seems like the 'far right' are going to get just under a third of the seats in France, an increase from what they had before, so the suggestion that they have been completely defeated is a bit optimistic.

    Besides which, the panic to lock them out of power has resulted in the assembly of a makeshift alliance of almost everyone else. Almost everyone else agrees on nothing, save for the necessity of frustrating Madame Le Pen.

    As TSE points out, how on Earth do you construct a government from two almost equal blocs of centrist economic liberals, and socialists who detest Macron and probably want to lower the retirement age to about 35? Fun and games...
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    Are we sure the exit poll is accurate?

    RN (incl. LR-RN) (113)
    NFP left-wing coalition (101)
    Macron's coalition Ensemble (99)
    LR (right) (35)
    Ind. right (14)
    Ind. left (8)
    Ind. center (6)
    Regionalists (4)
    Misc. (1)
    No result yet (196)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585

    Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Why don't you just ignore people you don't agree with?
    Because that would not allow Heathener to be the temporary centre of attention.
    Leon only comes here for attention...
    Which is why ignoring him is often the best thing to do.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397
    Pulpstar said:

    The French counting is impressively quick. I know they use sampling for the exit poll - is the vote electronic, the counts are quicker than Sunderland !

    Don't they count at each polling station, rather than hauling them over to a central site before beginning to count?
    Hence you get a final result from each commune?
    This enables the rural areas to be very quick, as they've very few votes to count in each location.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Why don't you just ignore people you don't agree with?
    Because that would not allow Heathener to be the temporary centre of attention.
    Leon only comes here for attention...
    Which is why ignoring him is often the best thing to do.
    You took the words straight out of my mouth.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    More seriously I think this might be a rare if not unique occasion when @Roger is right

    The name “Le Pen” is simply too toxic, her dad was an actual Nazi apologist who made jokes about gas chambers. It’s very hard to detoxify from that, tho she has had a damn good go, and she is a clever and cunning politician

    Her party and her policies may only succeed, electorally (if they ever do) when they are not tainted by a leader called Le Pen

    Think that's true.
    Although Marine wasn't the RN candidate for PM. And neither was Melenchon for the NFP.
    But everyone knows she’s there. And the leader. And hoping to pounce on the presidency

    This result suggests to me she can never win it, and maybe there is VALUE in betting against her

    However she has built a formidable party machine and they aren’t going anywhere, and all the reasons she is popular are probably going to grow in salience - migration, Islamism, etc (but let’s hope not)

    I can see her party finally winning when she leaves the scene, ironically - same way Sinn Fein took power once the actual terrorists buggered off
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,160

    Are we sure the exit poll is accurate?

    RN (incl. LR-RN) (113)
    NFP left-wing coalition (101)
    Macron's coalition Ensemble (99)
    LR (right) (35)
    Ind. right (14)
    Ind. left (8)
    Ind. center (6)
    Regionalists (4)
    Misc. (1)
    No result yet (196)

    Given it uses sampling of actual votes it ought to be. Later results will likely skew left being more urban
  • pigeon said:

    darkage said:

    From what I can put together it seems like the 'far right' are going to get just under a third of the seats in France, an increase from what they had before, so the suggestion that they have been completely defeated is a bit optimistic.

    Besides which, the panic to lock them out of power has resulted in the assembly of a makeshift alliance of almost everyone else. Almost everyone else agrees on nothing, save for the necessity of frustrating Madame Le Pen.

    As TSE points out, how on Earth do you construct a government from two almost equal blocs of centrist economic liberals, and socialists who detest Macron and probably want to lower the retirement age to about 35? Fun and games...
    It does imply though that the French really, really do not want a far right government.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 495

    Dopermean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    And your evidence for that?
    This is the NPF policy:

    "The NPF, presenting its policies on Friday, said its top priority if elected would be the cost of living crisis, which was “harming the lives and confidence of the French people”. It pledged to cap the price of essential foods, as well as electricity, gas and petrol.

    The parties also said they would immediately reverse the unpopular pension changes pushed through last year by Macron’s government and return the French retirement age to 60, as well as overturning a more recent change to unemployment benefits and introducing a wealth tax.

    They said France’s minimum wage and pension would be raised, while the NPF would also demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, recognise the state of Palestine, continue supplying necessary arms to Ukraine and legislate for carbon neutrality by 2050."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

    So, sounds like good news for Ukraine.

    Indeed I suspect such a manifesto would have done well here last week.

    Vive La France!
    Did Free Owls get a mention?
    I don't think the NPF policies are financially sound, but no worse than Reform or the Greens were.
    Reform and Greens have a total of 9 MPs.

    There's a majority for financially unsound in France.
    Holidayed in Northern Spain last summer, shocked at how cheap it was to eat out. Turns out they'd capped fuel prices and supported the energy companies.

    Of course the UK had an energy cap, and direct consumer subsidies, last year.

    But the problem is not them being used in an emergency but being continually extended in time, size and scope.
    Spain and Portugal seem to have prevented energy price inflation driving up costs across the whole economy.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    This thread shows Mélenchon's electoral problem: he's not transfer friendly: https://x.com/mathieugallard/status/1810012349291524526

    Les Républicains (Gaullists) slightly prefer Len so that depresses his vote somewhat. All left and centre voters prefer Mélenchon.

    Le Pen is totally transfer unfriendly. She's essentially no-one's second choice.

    All of the other left, centre and Gaullists parties are completely transfer friendly. Everyone chooses them rather than Le Pen as their second choice.
  • Matthew Goodwin has had a shocker.

    Founded a polling company with the worst record of any pollster and thought Le Pen was a shoe in and she's losing.

    He is a grade A prat.
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    darkage said:

    I was in the gym listening in the municipal sauna to the political discussion. Essentially people were complaining about how the school let children choose their gender at age 5, that there will be no men in 20 years, just people with a penis as masculinity is being destroyed. Then the discussion moved on to how useless EV's are and the injustice of 'road tax', only 17% of it apparently gets spent on repairing the roads, everything else is spent on other things.

    This did serve to reinforce my sense that the views held by the Reform party are quite widespread. It used to be that the Conservative party represented them but they went 'woke' in 2021 and I think this is a big historic cause of the current popularity of the Reform party. Had the tories just stuck with the strategy set out in 2019 they may be in a better position now.

    They went woke after the 2005 election when Cameron won and ended the memberships right to choose candidates and imposed various proto lib dems and sundry public school nice but dims and spivs from central A lists on the local associations.

    Now it has come home to roost.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    RobD said:

    With the Tories refusing to ban the members from voting, they will end up with some nutter leading them.

    SKS should make changes to remove the membership vote from Labour for good.

    Refusing? Has a decision been made about how the election will be conducted?
    Perhaps you should do a bit of news reading.
    I see comments from a candidate for the 1922 chairmanship position expressing his views, but nothing more.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,397

    Are we sure the exit poll is accurate?

    RN (incl. LR-RN) (113)
    NFP left-wing coalition (101)
    Macron's coalition Ensemble (99)
    LR (right) (35)
    Ind. right (14)
    Ind. left (8)
    Ind. center (6)
    Regionalists (4)
    Misc. (1)
    No result yet (196)

    As I noted before upthread, two things.
    Firstly. RN started today with a large lead, on account of having many more elected on the first round.
    Second. Polls stay open two hours longer in cities, so these are mostly rural results coming in first.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    I won my only serious election bet - against @TimS - and I was right about Biden - and now I’m talking about mosquitoes

    The weird thing is that you’re’ the drama queen, you flounce more than anyone (even me)

    I’m sure you’ll be back, so au revoir, Madame
    The worst mosquitos I ever experienced were in Arles, on the edge of the Camargue. Surprised at the Luberon though.

    Where, by the way, the RN seem to have won. In fact the RN have won everywhere that olives grow. And have lost everywhere that cattle graze.
    What about where poodles poop?
    Où les chiens chient. That's all of France. You would hope the linguistics would give them a clue as to the essential point about dogs.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,743

    Worry not NR fans, it's only a matter of time before they get their chance, according to the BBC anyway.

    'Far right's historic moment may have to wait'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ck7gydwgvy8t?post=asset:76bbf7b0-1298-4db5-83e8-9243bf68b139#post

    Perhaps the BBC just took it from a RN press release.

    They're now reporting:
    Marine Le Pen, who co-leads the National Rally with Jordan Bardella, has just spoken to reporters.
    She is defiant, saying her party's "victory has only been delayed"

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    What is the position of HMG under Keir Starmer, to the revival of the ancient county of Winchcombeshire?
  • darkage said:

    I was in the gym listening in the municipal sauna to the political discussion. Essentially people were complaining about how the school let children choose their gender at age 5, that there will be no men in 20 years, just people with a penis as masculinity is being destroyed. Then the discussion moved on to how useless EV's are and the injustice of 'road tax', only 17% of it apparently gets spent on repairing the roads, everything else is spent on other things.

    This did serve to reinforce my sense that the views held by the Reform party are quite widespread. It used to be that the Conservative party represented them but they went 'woke' in 2021 and I think this is a big historic cause of the current popularity of the Reform party. Had the tories just stuck with the strategy set out in 2019 they may be in a better position now.

    They went woke after the 2005 election when Cameron won and ended the memberships right to choose candidates and imposed various proto lib dems and sundry public school nice but dims and spivs from central A lists on the local associations.

    Now it has come home to roost.
    Johnson and Cameron were significantly more "woke" than Sunak who just produced the worst result in the Conservatives' history.

    Perhaps you need to move on from the culture wars and think about why you actually lost as opposed to arguments you rehearse in front of the mirror every morning.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    With the Tories refusing to ban the members from voting, they will end up with some nutter leading them.

    SKS should make changes to remove the membership vote from Labour for good.

    Refusing? Has a decision been made about how the election will be conducted?
    Perhaps you should do a bit of news reading.
    I see comments from a candidate for the 1922 chairmanship position expressing his views, but nothing more.
    You clearly have difficulty doing reading.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    With the Tories refusing to ban the members from voting, they will end up with some nutter leading them.

    SKS should make changes to remove the membership vote from Labour for good.

    Refusing? Has a decision been made about how the election will be conducted?
    Perhaps you should do a bit of news reading.
    I see comments from a candidate for the 1922 chairmanship position expressing his views, but nothing more.
    You clearly have difficulty doing reading.
    Could you share a link, please?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,343
    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    This thread shows Mélenchon's electoral problem: he's not transfer friendly: https://x.com/mathieugallard/status/1810012349291524526

    Les Républicains (Gaullists) slightly prefer Len so that depresses his vote somewhat. All left and centre voters prefer Mélenchon.

    Le Pen is totally transfer unfriendly. She's essentially no-one's second choice.

    All of the other left, centre and Gaullists parties are completely transfer friendly. Everyone chooses them rather than Le Pen as their second choice.
    Yet, some RN/UXD candidates have seen their vote share rise sharply, between Round 1 and
    2.
  • It feels like the death of centrism and the death of leftism has been exaggerated.

    It does now feel like the far right are on the backfoot. Time for the centre to deliver once again.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Your enthusiasm and confidence for the last year or two has been very helpful to a centrist bedwetter like me. I thought I'd end my days under some demented Johnsonian Government without any non- Conservative breaks.

    I don't blame you though, and the reaction to the Conservative hurt on here would be normally be worthy of an arm around the shoulder, but they are so angry, best to leave them be..

    But remember in 2016 when we were hurting, really hurting after the ludicrous Leave vote. Was there any helping hands across the divide? No, we were told "suck it up losers".
    There's never been a time on PB when the abuse hasn't being going both ways on almost any issue.
    I don't believe that to be true, generally it is very collegiate here, and yes there is banter but you can't deny Heathener has had it in the neck over her confidence regarding a Conservative defeat at the election.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651

    Are we sure the exit poll is accurate?

    RN (incl. LR-RN) (113)
    NFP left-wing coalition (101)
    Macron's coalition Ensemble (99)
    LR (right) (35)
    Ind. right (14)
    Ind. left (8)
    Ind. center (6)
    Regionalists (4)
    Misc. (1)
    No result yet (196)

    Big cities largely still to come.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950
    darkage said:

    From what I can put together it seems like the 'far right' are going to get just under a third of the seats in France, an increase from what they had before, so the suggestion that they have been completely defeated is a bit optimistic.

    But at least we’re not going to get years of them whining about being the largest party that the nasty lefty establishment is still not willing to work with. Grievance quotient substantially diminished.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Is it a sign of the Prime Minister's disdain for traditional English values, that he's yet to fill the office of Second Church Estates Commissioner?

    Wicked incompetence? OR visa-versa?

    He is stalling pending instructions from Moscow.
    You're mixing Keir Starmer up with Nigel Farage, methinks.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,343
    dixiedean said:

    Are we sure the exit poll is accurate?

    RN (incl. LR-RN) (113)
    NFP left-wing coalition (101)
    Macron's coalition Ensemble (99)
    LR (right) (35)
    Ind. right (14)
    Ind. left (8)
    Ind. center (6)
    Regionalists (4)
    Misc. (1)
    No result yet (196)

    As I noted before upthread, two things.
    Firstly. RN started today with a large lead, on account of having many more elected on the first round.
    Second. Polls stay open two hours longer in cities, so these are mostly rural results coming in first.
    On Round 1, they only won 39 seats to 32 for the Left. Overall, the Right wing parties could win a plurality, which is a big shift from 2022.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The French counting is impressively quick. I know they use sampling for the exit poll - is the vote electronic, the counts are quicker than Sunderland !

    Don't they count at each polling station, rather than hauling them over to a central site before beginning to count?
    Hence you get a final result from each commune?
    This enables the rural areas to be very quick, as they've very few votes to count in each location.
    Yes pretty sure it's counting at polling stations (which a lot of countries do).

    There might be some electronic voting? but not a lot I think.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,950

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Over 50% of your posts are about how much you dislike Leon.
    TBH I think she’s secretly got a crush
    To me she is Fanny Price in Of Human Bondage.
    And Leon is the PB fanny price expert.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited July 7

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Your enthusiasm and confidence for the last year or two has been very helpful to a centrist bedwetter like me. I thought I'd end my days under some demented Johnsonian Government without any non- Conservative breaks.

    I don't blame you though, and the reaction to the Conservative hurt on here would be normally be worthy of an arm around the shoulder, but they are so angry, best to leave them be..

    But remember in 2016 when we were hurting, really hurting after the ludicrous Leave vote. Was there any helping hands across the divide? No, we were told "suck it up losers".
    I agree with your last paragraph, except remain<->leave was not a left-right issue, as (say) Corbyn and Rory showed.
    I didn't mention a left- right divide. It was strictly a Remain- Leave issue. However, many of those in the doldrums today were quite happy to attack "Remoaner losers".
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,747

    It feels like the death of centrism and the death of leftism has been exaggerated.

    It does now feel like the far right are on the backfoot. Time for the centre to deliver once again.

    The political map currently has great abysses - no parties here!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,578
    The popular vote total is going to be heavily skewed towards the Rassemblement National because they were competing in the most seats.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    Is it a sign of the Prime Minister's disdain for traditional English values, that he's yet to fill the office of Second Church Estates Commissioner?

    Wicked incompetence? OR visa-versa?

    He is stalling pending instructions from Moscow.
    You're mixing Keir Starmer up with Nigel Farage, methinks.
    No, unreconstructed lefties over here think the USSR is still a going concern.
  • The popular vote total is going to be heavily skewed towards the Rassemblement National because they were competing in the most seats.

    Are you pro far right William Glenn today or the more EU loving one?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Over 50% of your posts are about how much you dislike Leon.
    TBH I think she’s secretly got a crush
    To me she is Fanny Price in Of Human Bondage.
    And Leon is the PB fanny price expert.
    Tres bon, avez un coconut
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601
    Labour to seek joint declaration with EU on wide-ranging security pact

    Exclusive: Foreign secretary says deal would allow UK work more closely with bloc on issues such as defence and energy


    Labour is seeking a sweeping joint declaration with the EU to usher in a wide-ranging security pact covering defence, energy, the climate crisis, pandemics and even illegal migration, the foreign secretary, David Lammy, has said.

    As part of the new government’s plan to reset its relations with the EU and bring “an end to the Brexit era”, Lammy told the Guardian that a broadly defined security deal would not undermine Labour’s commitment to remain outside the EU’s single market and customs union.

    Under Labour plans, the pact would see the UK work more closely with the bloc on a slew of areas related to security, ideally without the need for a legally binding deal, which could take years to agree.

    Lammy has also accepted an invitation from the EU foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, to attend the September meeting of the EU foreign affairs council – something that was rejected by the previous Conservative government.

    It is rare for non-EU states to attend the foreign affairs council, and Labour thinks it may be possible to go on an irregular basis if the planned security pact develops


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/07/labour-to-seek-joint-declaration-with-eu-on-wide-ranging-security-pact
  • Is it a sign of the Prime Minister's disdain for traditional English values, that he's yet to fill the office of Second Church Estates Commissioner?

    Wicked incompetence? OR visa-versa?

    He is stalling pending instructions from Moscow.
    You're mixing Keir Starmer up with Nigel Farage, methinks.
    No, unreconstructed lefties over here think the USSR is still a going concern.
    But Keir Starmer is not an "unreconstructed leftie", his foreign policy views are essentially the same as the Tories.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Basically this French election is an inarguable argument in favour of AV/electoral reform, might do a thread on this.

    France is giving a display of the benefits of 2-round voting. Gives anti fascists time to regroup, and organize tactical voting. Very impressive.

    https://x.com/EdwardGLuce/status/1810013462543659156

    Be fascinating to think what would happen if we had the French system with about 500+ run-off elections due next week with every combination of run-off candidates imaginable.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    darkage said:

    I was in the gym listening in the municipal sauna to the political discussion. Essentially people were complaining about how the school let children choose their gender at age 5, that there will be no men in 20 years, just people with a penis as masculinity is being destroyed. Then the discussion moved on to how useless EV's are and the injustice of 'road tax', only 17% of it apparently gets spent on repairing the roads, everything else is spent on other things.

    This did serve to reinforce my sense that the views held by the Reform party are quite widespread. It used to be that the Conservative party represented them but they went 'woke' in 2021 and I think this is a big historic cause of the current popularity of the Reform party. Had the tories just stuck with the strategy set out in 2019 they may be in a better position now.

    They went woke after the 2005 election when Cameron won and ended the memberships right to choose candidates and imposed various proto lib dems and sundry public school nice but dims and spivs from central A lists on the local associations.

    Now it has come home to roost.
    Johnson and Cameron were significantly more "woke" than Sunak who just produced the worst result in the Conservatives' history.

    Perhaps you need to move on from the culture wars and think about why you actually lost as opposed to arguments you rehearse in front of the mirror every morning.
    I don't think Sunak or Johnson had the remotest interest in wokery. Cameron pretended to, to shore up his Heir to Blair credentials, but unconvincingly.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    edited July 7
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    With the Tories refusing to ban the members from voting, they will end up with some nutter leading them.

    SKS should make changes to remove the membership vote from Labour for good.

    Refusing? Has a decision been made about how the election will be conducted?
    Perhaps you should do a bit of news reading.
    I see comments from a candidate for the 1922 chairmanship position expressing his views, but nothing more.
    You clearly have difficulty doing reading.
    Could you share a link, please?
    Anything @BatteryCorrectHorse? Having the rules finalised would clearly be important news in terms of betting on the runners...
  • darkage said:

    I was in the gym listening in the municipal sauna to the political discussion. Essentially people were complaining about how the school let children choose their gender at age 5, that there will be no men in 20 years, just people with a penis as masculinity is being destroyed. Then the discussion moved on to how useless EV's are and the injustice of 'road tax', only 17% of it apparently gets spent on repairing the roads, everything else is spent on other things.

    This did serve to reinforce my sense that the views held by the Reform party are quite widespread. It used to be that the Conservative party represented them but they went 'woke' in 2021 and I think this is a big historic cause of the current popularity of the Reform party. Had the tories just stuck with the strategy set out in 2019 they may be in a better position now.

    They went woke after the 2005 election when Cameron won and ended the memberships right to choose candidates and imposed various proto lib dems and sundry public school nice but dims and spivs from central A lists on the local associations.

    Now it has come home to roost.
    Johnson and Cameron were significantly more "woke" than Sunak who just produced the worst result in the Conservatives' history.

    Perhaps you need to move on from the culture wars and think about why you actually lost as opposed to arguments you rehearse in front of the mirror every morning.
    I don't think Sunak or Johnson had the remotest interest in wokery. Cameron pretended to, to shore up his Heir to Blair credentials, but unconvincingly.
    Do you honestly think with the recent election results that there is any mileage in the anti-woke stuff? Really?
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    Is it a sign of the Prime Minister's disdain for traditional English values, that he's yet to fill the office of Second Church Estates Commissioner?

    Wicked incompetence? OR visa-versa?

    He is stalling pending instructions from Moscow.
    You're mixing Keir Starmer up with Nigel Farage, methinks.
    No, unreconstructed lefties over here think the USSR is still a going concern.
    But Keir Starmer is not an "unreconstructed leftie", his foreign policy views are essentially the same as the Tories.
    Congratulations Comrade, that's exactly the line to take.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,585

    Labour to seek joint declaration with EU on wide-ranging security pact

    Exclusive: Foreign secretary says deal would allow UK work more closely with bloc on issues such as defence and energy


    Labour is seeking a sweeping joint declaration with the EU to usher in a wide-ranging security pact covering defence, energy, the climate crisis, pandemics and even illegal migration, the foreign secretary, David Lammy, has said.

    As part of the new government’s plan to reset its relations with the EU and bring “an end to the Brexit era”, Lammy told the Guardian that a broadly defined security deal would not undermine Labour’s commitment to remain outside the EU’s single market and customs union.

    Under Labour plans, the pact would see the UK work more closely with the bloc on a slew of areas related to security, ideally without the need for a legally binding deal, which could take years to agree.

    Lammy has also accepted an invitation from the EU foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, to attend the September meeting of the EU foreign affairs council – something that was rejected by the previous Conservative government.

    It is rare for non-EU states to attend the foreign affairs council, and Labour thinks it may be possible to go on an irregular basis if the planned security pact develops


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/07/labour-to-seek-joint-declaration-with-eu-on-wide-ranging-security-pact

    Making declarations is a lot easier than building things.
  • Farooq said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    I feel the same. I won't be here again after today. That's a guarantee.
    Don't go, I really enjoy reading your posts.
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141

    Are we sure the exit poll is accurate?

    RN (incl. LR-RN) (113)
    NFP left-wing coalition (101)
    Macron's coalition Ensemble (99)
    LR (right) (35)
    Ind. right (14)
    Ind. left (8)
    Ind. center (6)
    Regionalists (4)
    Misc. (1)
    No result yet (196)

    It's always like this in France. Dunny on the Wold/Scilly Isles/Western Isles results come in first.
  • Is it a sign of the Prime Minister's disdain for traditional English values, that he's yet to fill the office of Second Church Estates Commissioner?

    Wicked incompetence? OR visa-versa?

    He is stalling pending instructions from Moscow.
    You're mixing Keir Starmer up with Nigel Farage, methinks.
    No, unreconstructed lefties over here think the USSR is still a going concern.
    But Keir Starmer is not an "unreconstructed leftie", his foreign policy views are essentially the same as the Tories.
    Congratulations Comrade, that's exactly the line to take.
    Is it cold in Moscow?
  • Labour to seek joint declaration with EU on wide-ranging security pact

    Exclusive: Foreign secretary says deal would allow UK work more closely with bloc on issues such as defence and energy


    Labour is seeking a sweeping joint declaration with the EU to usher in a wide-ranging security pact covering defence, energy, the climate crisis, pandemics and even illegal migration, the foreign secretary, David Lammy, has said.

    As part of the new government’s plan to reset its relations with the EU and bring “an end to the Brexit era”, Lammy told the Guardian that a broadly defined security deal would not undermine Labour’s commitment to remain outside the EU’s single market and customs union.

    Under Labour plans, the pact would see the UK work more closely with the bloc on a slew of areas related to security, ideally without the need for a legally binding deal, which could take years to agree.

    Lammy has also accepted an invitation from the EU foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, to attend the September meeting of the EU foreign affairs council – something that was rejected by the previous Conservative government.

    It is rare for non-EU states to attend the foreign affairs council, and Labour thinks it may be possible to go on an irregular basis if the planned security pact develops


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/07/labour-to-seek-joint-declaration-with-eu-on-wide-ranging-security-pact

    Making declarations is a lot easier than building things.
    If the Tories had done this the press would be telling us what a master-stroke it was.
  • It's nice to have Ishmael back posting.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,228
    edited July 7
    Farooq said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    I feel the same. I won't be here again after today. That's a guarantee.
    All you and @Heathener do is moan about me, I’m starting to suspect you are two sock puppets I have cleverly invented so as to get even more attention, but somehow I did it without realising. That’s how smart I am. Heh
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Heathener said:

    One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.

    He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.

    I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.

    I’ll leave it there.

    Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.

    Over 50% of your posts are about how much you dislike Leon.
    TBH I think she’s secretly got a crush
    To me she is Fanny Price in Of Human Bondage.
    And Leon is the PB fanny price expert.
    I thought @TSE was the PB expert on the price of fanny.
This discussion has been closed.