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Ils ne passeront pas – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 8 in General
Ils ne passeront pas – politicalbetting.com

Spectacular result if true:– Left-wing "New Popular Front" in 1st– Macronists in second– National Rally in third https://t.co/CXJ4LPTujI

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Sorry, I don't have the mental strength to cope with a second massive election in three days.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Mais je ne comprends pas les Français!
  • Options
    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763

    Sorry, I don't have the mental strength to cope with a second massive election in three days.

    This needs to be carefully and slowly read if you are tired.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639

    Sorry, I don't have the mental strength to cope with a second massive election in three days.

    That's nothing.

    In France they can sustain an election for an entire week.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194
    This can't end well.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,407
    The putative French left coalition would be a nest of vipers
  • Options
    FossFoss Posts: 750
    So... same time next year then?
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372
    Great news!
  • Options
    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763
    geoffw said:

    The putative French left coalition would be a nest of vipers

    A coalition of chaos even?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    It could have ended worse....
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,029
    Since the war is being mentioned, I'm sure I've read on here that it's a good thing for all sides, including actual Stalinists, to ally against the Narzees.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372
    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,407

    geoffw said:

    The putative French left coalition would be a nest of vipers

    A coalition of chaos even?
    © SKS
  • Options
    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Nous arrivons a Provence


    Gotta say it does look quite fash-adjacent. This place could - understandably - vote Nazi in despair any moment



    This trying to empathise with the French business will do you no good you know!

    (Is there an any way similar website to PB in France? A mere echo though it must be of course.)
    I’m in Menerbes. One of the plus nice villages de France. It is absurdly beaut

    No riots….. YET
    I studied and lived on the Cote D'Azur for three months. Filthy little dogs shitting everywhere. Watch where you're puting your Gucci loafers.
    I’ve no intention of going to the coast. It’s vulgar and full of gangsters. And I might meet @Roger
    You should. It's at it's sparkling best and full of people you'll recognise. Two exhibitions you might like. Bettina Rheims in Nice and Pasolini in Monaco. Bettina Rheims shows that Me2 doesn't apply to women and Pasolini......is just Pasolini. Then if you can wait the Tour de France ends in Nice on the 17th and the Olympic torch is wending its way from VF to Paris as I type....
    I’ve done the Riviera many times. It’s nice if you like that sort of thing - and sometimes I do

    But I’m here to do some actual flint knapping and a friend has kindly loaned me his little house in the lovely Luberon
    Little known fact that Luberon is where KY Jelly was invented.
    Wait till you hear what they dreamt up at Condom.
    France once had an international rugby payer by the name of Condom. Caused Nigel Starmer-Smith all sorts of difficulties.
    we had an Irish Curate called Fr Condon.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Another European country swinging left? Who’d have thought.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    It could have ended worse....
    No. The perfect storm. Everybody is upset.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774

    Not a good night for Nigel by looks of things.

    Farage said that Le Pen would be a disaster for France.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/01/nigel-farage-reform-uk-le-pen-right-party-disaser-france/
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    edited July 7

    Since the war is being mentioned, I'm sure I've read on here that it's a good thing for all sides, including actual Stalinists, to ally against the Narzees.

    Hey, I didn't mention that war, I mentioned the one before it, the war to end all wars that was World War I.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    It could have ended worse....
    No. The perfect storm. Everybody is upset.
    Yup. No stable government coming out of this.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 9,946
    At least there won't be any immediate outpouring of violence and rage over the mess. Oh........
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Nous arrivons a Provence


    Gotta say it does look quite fash-adjacent. This place could - understandably - vote Nazi in despair any moment



    This trying to empathise with the French business will do you no good you know!

    (Is there an any way similar website to PB in France? A mere echo though it must be of course.)
    I’m in Menerbes. One of the plus nice villages de France. It is absurdly beaut

    No riots….. YET
    I studied and lived on the Cote D'Azur for three months. Filthy little dogs shitting everywhere. Watch where you're puting your Gucci loafers.
    I’ve no intention of going to the coast. It’s vulgar and full of gangsters. And I might meet @Roger
    You should. It's at it's sparkling best and full of people you'll recognise. Two exhibitions you might like. Bettina Rheims in Nice and Pasolini in Monaco. Bettina Rheims shows that Me2 doesn't apply to women and Pasolini......is just Pasolini. Then if you can wait the Tour de France ends in Nice on the 17th and the Olympic torch is wending its way from VF to Paris as I type....
    I’ve done the Riviera many times. It’s nice if you like that sort of thing - and sometimes I do

    But I’m here to do some actual flint knapping and a friend has kindly loaned me his little house in the lovely Luberon
    Little known fact that Luberon is where KY Jelly was invented.
    Wait till you hear what they dreamt up at Condom.
    France once had an international rugby payer by the name of Condom. Caused Nigel Starmer-Smith all sorts of difficulties.
    we had an Irish Curate called Fr Condon.
    Sir Paul Condon, head of the Met during the 1990s.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,906
    (FPT)

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Another couple of amazing stats from this bizarre election.
    Labour have never lost more than 91 seats at an election (2010). The Tories lost 252.
    The Tories have never gained more than 96 (2010 again). Labour gained 239.

    All figures net since 1945.

    One of my pals put it this way: to get 5 far right MPs elected cost 250 centre right MPs. Not a great piece of business.
    Now be fair at least a fifth of the Tory MPs were probably Reform curious at heart.
    Let's see if they feel that way now they are unemployed.
    Ask Marcus Fysh.

    A former Tory MP who lost his seat in the general election says he has quit the party because "it's dead".

    Marcus Fysh was Yeovil's MP but lost heavily to Adam Dance from the Liberal Democrats.

    On X, the former minister said the current parliamentary composition of the party was "non-Conservative".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ge4k
    d8kl9o
    He’s a right wing nutter. I’m glad he doesn’t agree with the composition of the Conservative Party
    Room in the 'broad church' for everyone except those with right wing views eh?
    Surprise surprise. Like 'party loyalty', a concept that only applies one way.
    I didn’t say that.

    It was Fysh who was trying to define what the Conservative Party should be
    Before the election, CCHQ tried to parachute a candidate into a seat who couldn't accept because they were already on the Lib Dem's candidates list. That's an extreme example of a selection process that stuff safe seats with ideological opponents to conservatism. It demonstrates a very profound issue that goes to the heart of the party's disunity and ineffectiveness in Government. The Tory Party used to be a lot more democratic, with local associations selecting MPs, a democratic right that they gave up in return for a say in the leadership, which CCHQ is also trying to take off them.

    There does need to be a broad church, but everyone in that church should be motivated imho by a basic belief in the values of conservatism, however mild that form of conservatism might be. How else can they represent the interests of conservative voters?
    The problem is that there *is* overlap between some of the parties in the centre, and you want that to be a hard-and-fast boundary. But without going to the NF or BNP, there is no boundary on the right. You want to truncate the broad church in the centre, but let any nutcase in on the far right.

    But IMV the key word for Conservatives is the small-c word 'conservative'. Not no change, but careful and well-planned change, cautiously made. Progress by evolution rather than revolution.

    The Conservative Party have forgotten that over the last decade.
    But that notion is one of parties occupying a silly sort of space on left/right spectrum. A band that contracts, expands, and is pushed up and down like a pipe cleaner with the vagaries of politics.

    What I'm arguing for is belief in a set of values and principles by which all political actions are measured. Is a law adding to the powers of the state against individual? Is a law or treaty in the national interest or against it? Is a law adding unduly to the tax burden? Will a law fundamentally undermine the security of the nation or its ability to defend itself? Is a law in the interests of families? Is a political action conducive to a strong, cohesive society? Is a law conducive to parliamentary sovereignty?

    It isn't really about right and left, though those terms can be useful shorthand. A lot of the PCP, through design by CCHQ for reasons which I can't discern, doesn't pay more than lip service to those values, and sometimes not even that.
    The issue is that the way those topics viewed can very much be in the eyes of he beholder, e.g. what is the national interest, especially if you take short- and long-term into account? They can also be contradictory. Is a slightly increased tax burden justified if that tax money is spent in the national interest? This treaty may slightly reduce national sovereignty, but also be in the national interest.
    I think they're less ambiguous than you indicate. But they do come in and out of fashion.

    There are fashionable weasel words that would justify the closing of Britain's virgin steel making capacity, dealing a knockout blow to our ability to manufacture armaments without importing the steel, based on amorphous envisaged future benefits of 'setting a good example' on CO2 emissions, but no true adherent to Tory principles could ever support such a scheme. Another Tory principle is that families and individuals spend their money better than the state. If adherence to these principles was widespread within the PCP, neither the party nor the country would be in the mess they are in.
    I think Thatcher would have been thoroughly on board with reducing CO2 emissions. I think she was the first major world leader to take it seriously, along with CFCs and acid rain.

    Her own words:

    "For generations, we have assumed that the efforts of mankind would leave the fundamental equilibrium of the world's systems and atmosphere stable. But it is possible that with all these enormous changes (population, agricultural, use of fossil fuels) concentrated into such a short period of time, we have unwittingly begun a massive experiment with the system of this planet itself.

    Recently three changes in atmospheric chemistry have become familiar subjects of concern. The first is the increase in the greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons—which has led some [end p4] to fear that we are creating a global heat trap which could lead to climatic instability. We are told that a warming effect of 1°C per decade would greatly exceed the capacity of our natural habitat to cope. Such warming could cause accelerated melting of glacial ice and a consequent increase in the sea level of several feet over the next century. This was brought home to me at the Commonwealth Conference in Vancouver last year when the President of the Maldive Islands reminded us that the highest part of the Maldives is only six feet above sea level. The population is 177,000. It is noteworthy that the five warmest years in a century of records have all been in the 1980s—though we may not have seen much evidence in Britain!

    The second matter under discussion is the discovery by the British Antarctic Survey of a large hole in the ozone layer which protects life from ultra-violet radiation. We don't know the full implications of the ozone hole nor how it may interact with the greenhouse effect. Nevertheless it was common sense to support a worldwide agreement in Montreal last year to halve world consumption of chlorofluorocarbons by the end of the century. As the sole measure to limit ozone depletion, this may be insufficient but it is a start in reducing the pace of change while we continue the detailed study of the problem on which our (the British) Stratospheric Ozone Review Group is about to report.

    The third matter is acid deposition which has affected soils, lakes and trees downwind from industrial centres. Extensive action is being taken to cut down emission of sulphur and nitrogen oxides from power stations at great but necessary expense."

    https://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/107346

    According to you, Thatcher would not be a Conservative...
    There is no other way to make commercial steel without coking coal (a heck of a lot of CO2). Anyone who says otherwise also has a Fusion reactor to sell you.
    I'm unsure what point you're trying to make? Few people say we need *no* coal; otherwise heritage railways would be in serious trouble. But getting rid of coal-fired power stations from the 1990s onwards made a massive dent in our carbon emissions.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/449503/co2-emissions-united-kingdom-uk/
    We are talking about commercial steel and the closing down of a plant that makes virgin steel to replace it with one the recycles scrap steel. The virgin steel market is not decreasing in any way, but it just wont be getting made here.
    We also do not mine iron ore any more (there are lots of traces of that industry, only recently gone, in the Northamptonshire area). So that needs importing as well for the true independence you desire. Fortunately we have oodles of limestone. :)

    I'm ambivalent about the steel plant's closure. Ideally we'd keep it, bit I have little idea of the economics of it. If we did, we may be better off nationalising it as a national resource - not that British Steel did a stellar job...
    Point of order. We stopped mining iron ore because in a globalised market we could get it cheaper from vast open cast mines in other parts of the word. There are still huge reserves of iron ore just as there are coal. Same goes for copper and tungsten (Devon has the 4th largest tungesten reserves in the world). These are economic and political decisions not resource availability decisions.
    Do you know anything about the US efforts to innovate new mining technologies, Richard ?
    (eg ARPA-e programs.)

    The US similarly has some of the largest known reserves of various minerals, which remain unexploited.
    And the growing friction with China - and strategic vulnerability in regard to imports - is getting them more interested in doing something about it.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774

    Good night for Ukraine, bad night for Putin.

    You think Melenchon having more power is good for Ukraine?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    edited July 7
    NPF have no leader, nor candidate for PM.
    The only 2 things they have in common is they don't like Le Pen. And they don't like Macron either.
    Meanwhile. All the other Parties in the bloc don't want Melenchon as PM.
    It's quite astonishing they held together this far.
    Maybe Francois Hollande as PM isn't a bad shout.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,029
    edited July 7

    Good night for Ukraine, bad night for Putin.

    You think Melenchon having more power is good for Ukraine?
    Dunno, but a bit more likely than Trump having more power is good for Ukraine.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    ...

    Good night for Ukraine, bad night for Putin.

    You think Melenchon having more power is good for Ukraine?
    Less troublesome as part of a coalition of chaos than an unleashed FN, but not great, I grant you.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    Foxy said:

    Good night for Ukraine, bad night for Putin.

    You think Melenchon having more power is good for Ukraine?
    Better than Le Pen or Farage.
    Tell 'em what's up, Doc!
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194
    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    It wouldn't worry me at all if that was what it is. I'd welcome such a thing. The trouble is that the mainstream-ish view is being suppressed, and the noisy element of that are the unwise.
  • Options
    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Nous arrivons a Provence


    Gotta say it does look quite fash-adjacent. This place could - understandably - vote Nazi in despair any moment



    This trying to empathise with the French business will do you no good you know!

    (Is there an any way similar website to PB in France? A mere echo though it must be of course.)
    I’m in Menerbes. One of the plus nice villages de France. It is absurdly beaut

    No riots….. YET
    I studied and lived on the Cote D'Azur for three months. Filthy little dogs shitting everywhere. Watch where you're puting your Gucci loafers.
    I’ve no intention of going to the coast. It’s vulgar and full of gangsters. And I might meet @Roger
    You should. It's at it's sparkling best and full of people you'll recognise. Two exhibitions you might like. Bettina Rheims in Nice and Pasolini in Monaco. Bettina Rheims shows that Me2 doesn't apply to women and Pasolini......is just Pasolini. Then if you can wait the Tour de France ends in Nice on the 17th and the Olympic torch is wending its way from VF to Paris as I type....
    I’ve done the Riviera many times. It’s nice if you like that sort of thing - and sometimes I do

    But I’m here to do some actual flint knapping and a friend has kindly loaned me his little house in the lovely Luberon
    Little known fact that Luberon is where KY Jelly was invented.
    Wait till you hear what they dreamt up at Condom.
    France once had an international rugby payer by the name of Condom. Caused Nigel Starmer-Smith all sorts of difficulties.
    we had an Irish Curate called Fr Condon.
    Sir Paul Condon, head of the Met during the 1990s.
    Whos protege was Ms Dick
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489
    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    And your evidence for that?
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,449

    Since the war is being mentioned, I'm sure I've read on here that it's a good thing for all sides, including actual Stalinists, to ally against the Narzees.

    Hey, I didn't mention that war, I mentioned the one before it, the war to end all wars that was World War I.
    Meanwhile, Nigel is reminiscing about the Battle of Mboto Gorge and the way Britain used to project power in the world, unafraid of sharpened mangoes.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106

    On a more serious point, the UK election campaign and election night has wiped me out on an emotional level.

    If any you have any guest pieces you wish to submit, send me a Vanilla message.

    I know how you feel.

    Didn't get much work done last week either, so am now under pressure too.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,224
    Vive La France!
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489

    Not a good night for Nigel by looks of things.

    Farage said that Le Pen would be a disaster for France.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/01/nigel-farage-reform-uk-le-pen-right-party-disaser-france/
    Not racist enough?
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372
    Omnium said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    It wouldn't worry me at all if that was what it is. I'd welcome such a thing. The trouble is that the mainstream-ish view is being suppressed, and the noisy element of that are the unwise.
    What mainstream-ish view are you referring to and how is it being suppressed?
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    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,229

    DM_Andy said:

    That is the worst demi pie-chart that I've ever seen. Did France24 hire their data visualisation expert from the Lib Dems?

    Makes it look like the exit poll results were doctored at the last minute to pretend Front Nationale are not heading for a majority so that the good and great can offload their assets before tbe markets twig on and implode..but they forgot to change the semi piechart.
    Yes, that would be the conspiracy theory take.
    I'd go for the oops we guessed wrong theory.
    People think it is clever to go with these second order arguments, and I never understand why. Given claims of A and not-A the thing to do is to assess the evidence that A, not to ask which side is the conspiracy theory or the incompetence vs malevolence theory. It's without logical foundation and hugely dangerous. It's I think undisputed that initial reports of the shoah were discounted in the UK because we always get these atrocity stories, it was the Belgians last time round. And the It's usually incompetence not malevolence theory enables the Old Etonian contingent to rob the country blind under cover of being lovable bumbling Bertie Wooster idiots.

    [FPT because important]
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,758

    On a more serious point, the UK election campaign and election night has wiped me out on an emotional level.

    If any you have any guest pieces you wish to submit, send me a Vanilla message.

    Will try to get a good look at the results this week - I may have prioritised premier league tv picks today….
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    And your evidence for that?
    This is the NPF policy:

    "The NPF, presenting its policies on Friday, said its top priority if elected would be the cost of living crisis, which was “harming the lives and confidence of the French people”. It pledged to cap the price of essential foods, as well as electricity, gas and petrol.

    The parties also said they would immediately reverse the unpopular pension changes pushed through last year by Macron’s government and return the French retirement age to 60, as well as overturning a more recent change to unemployment benefits and introducing a wealth tax.

    They said France’s minimum wage and pension would be raised, while the NPF would also demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, recognise the state of Palestine, continue supplying necessary arms to Ukraine and legislate for carbon neutrality by 2050."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

    So, sounds like good news for Ukraine.

    Indeed I suspect such a manifesto would have done well here last week.

    Vive La France!
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,229
    The Sun also rises. 2 breaks up.
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,627
    edited July 7

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Nous arrivons a Provence


    Gotta say it does look quite fash-adjacent. This place could - understandably - vote Nazi in despair any moment



    This trying to empathise with the French business will do you no good you know!

    (Is there an any way similar website to PB in France? A mere echo though it must be of course.)
    I’m in Menerbes. One of the plus nice villages de France. It is absurdly beaut

    No riots….. YET
    I studied and lived on the Cote D'Azur for three months. Filthy little dogs shitting everywhere. Watch where you're puting your Gucci loafers.
    I’ve no intention of going to the coast. It’s vulgar and full of gangsters. And I might meet @Roger
    You should. It's at it's sparkling best and full of people you'll recognise. Two exhibitions you might like. Bettina Rheims in Nice and Pasolini in Monaco. Bettina Rheims shows that Me2 doesn't apply to women and Pasolini......is just Pasolini. Then if you can wait the Tour de France ends in Nice on the 17th and the Olympic torch is wending its way from VF to Paris as I type....
    I’ve done the Riviera many times. It’s nice if you like that sort of thing - and sometimes I do

    But I’m here to do some actual flint knapping and a friend has kindly loaned me his little house in the lovely Luberon
    Little known fact that Luberon is where KY Jelly was invented.
    Wait till you hear what they dreamt up at Condom.
    France once had an international rugby payer by the name of Condom. Caused Nigel Starmer-Smith all sorts of difficulties.
    we had an Irish Curate called Fr Condon.
    Sir Paul Condon, head of the Met during the 1990s.
    Whos protege was Ms Dick
    I remember a primary school headteacher in Berkshire in the 80s retiring, he rejoiced under the name of Jack Tw&t, I kid you not.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    "The projected breakdown among the left-wing parties was 68-74 seats for LFI, (Melenchon) 63-69 for the Socialists (basically Labour) 32-36 for the Greens, and 10-12 to the Communists (who are well to the centre of Melenchon).

    The revival of the thought to be deceased Parti Socialiste is the story of this election.
    They'll be back up with LR in terms of representation.
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763

    On a more serious point, the UK election campaign and election night has wiped me out on an emotional level.

    If any you have any guest pieces you wish to submit, send me a Vanilla message.

    Two French elections, a UK election and England trailing for much of their last two football matches and taking penalties competently plus Raduanu actually winning is a lot for one week
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    On a more serious point, the UK election campaign and election night has wiped me out on an emotional level.

    If any you have any guest pieces you wish to submit, send me a Vanilla message.

    I have a quiet week so will see what I can do.

    What is the best file format to put a few images and graphs in.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Foxy said:

    On a more serious point, the UK election campaign and election night has wiped me out on an emotional level.

    If any you have any guest pieces you wish to submit, send me a Vanilla message.

    I have a quiet week so will see what I can do.

    What is the best file format to put a few images and graphs in.
    Send it to me in a word/doc format.

    RTF omits the pictures
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    I have to say it’s nice to see RN coming up short.

    But yes I don’t have much cheer for these results. Hung Parliament will make it very hard to form a stable and sensible government and that has to give advantage to MLP in 2027.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    edited July 7
    FPT
    Omnium said:

    So Macron has played a blinder?

    Not sure. My understanding from most of the commentators is that the deal that Macron has had to make with the Far Left is one that undoes much of his last 7 years and will put him on a collision course with Brussels over public finances. Basically he is risking bankrupting the country to savage this result after his stupid unecessary election.

    All this seems to do is make Le Pen more likely as President in a few years - if the analysis is correct.
    The problem is that there will be unrest on a scale we've not seen before.
    More than the Vendee massacre or the Paris Commune?
  • Options
    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    And your evidence for that?
    This is the NPF policy:

    "The NPF, presenting its policies on Friday, said its top priority if elected would be the cost of living crisis, which was “harming the lives and confidence of the French people”. It pledged to cap the price of essential foods, as well as electricity, gas and petrol.

    The parties also said they would immediately reverse the unpopular pension changes pushed through last year by Macron’s government and return the French retirement age to 60, as well as overturning a more recent change to unemployment benefits and introducing a wealth tax.

    They said France’s minimum wage and pension would be raised, while the NPF would also demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, recognise the state of Palestine, continue supplying necessary arms to Ukraine and legislate for carbon neutrality by 2050."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

    So, sounds like good news for Ukraine.

    Indeed I suspect such a manifesto would have done well here last week.

    Vive La France!
    Did Free Owls get a mention?
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,111
    edited July 7
    If it's true that Le Pen's lot have come third, you've just got to laugh given all the predictions.

    This is heading towards being one of the best political weeks of my long life.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    This Sun-Raducan’tu match is pisspoor.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    And your evidence for that?
    This is the NPF policy:

    "The NPF, presenting its policies on Friday, said its top priority if elected would be the cost of living crisis, which was “harming the lives and confidence of the French people”. It pledged to cap the price of essential foods, as well as electricity, gas and petrol.

    The parties also said they would immediately reverse the unpopular pension changes pushed through last year by Macron’s government and return the French retirement age to 60, as well as overturning a more recent change to unemployment benefits and introducing a wealth tax.

    They said France’s minimum wage and pension would be raised, while the NPF would also demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, recognise the state of Palestine, continue supplying necessary arms to Ukraine and legislate for carbon neutrality by 2050."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

    So, sounds like good news for Ukraine.

    Indeed I suspect such a manifesto would have done well here last week.

    Vive La France!
    Vive La France! Has Sean Fear ever commented on a left wing government that isn't anti semitic and pro putin?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    And your evidence for that?
    This is the NPF policy:

    "The NPF, presenting its policies on Friday, said its top priority if elected would be the cost of living crisis, which was “harming the lives and confidence of the French people”. It pledged to cap the price of essential foods, as well as electricity, gas and petrol.

    The parties also said they would immediately reverse the unpopular pension changes pushed through last year by Macron’s government and return the French retirement age to 60, as well as overturning a more recent change to unemployment benefits and introducing a wealth tax.

    They said France’s minimum wage and pension would be raised, while the NPF would also demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, recognise the state of Palestine, continue supplying necessary arms to Ukraine and legislate for carbon neutrality by 2050."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

    So, sounds like good news for Ukraine.

    Indeed I suspect such a manifesto would have done well here last week.

    Vive La France!
    Well, yes.

    Promising lots of nice things to people for some reason tends to be quite popular.

    The small snag, in this place called the real world, is paying for it.
  • Options
    EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 67
    Sun shines on a rainy day.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    The rumoured demise of the mosquito seems to have been greatly exaggerated. At least in the Luberon

    Ouch
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    And your evidence for that?
    This is the NPF policy:

    "The NPF, presenting its policies on Friday, said its top priority if elected would be the cost of living crisis, which was “harming the lives and confidence of the French people”. It pledged to cap the price of essential foods, as well as electricity, gas and petrol.

    The parties also said they would immediately reverse the unpopular pension changes pushed through last year by Macron’s government and return the French retirement age to 60, as well as overturning a more recent change to unemployment benefits and introducing a wealth tax.

    They said France’s minimum wage and pension would be raised, while the NPF would also demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, recognise the state of Palestine, continue supplying necessary arms to Ukraine and legislate for carbon neutrality by 2050."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

    So, sounds like good news for Ukraine.

    Indeed I suspect such a manifesto would have done well here last week.

    Vive La France!
    Some manifestos are designed to get votes.

    Some manifestos are designed to be put into practice.

    The problem arises when those designed to get votes have to be put into practice.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    And your evidence for that?
    This is the NPF policy:

    "The NPF, presenting its policies on Friday, said its top priority if elected would be the cost of living crisis, which was “harming the lives and confidence of the French people”. It pledged to cap the price of essential foods, as well as electricity, gas and petrol.

    The parties also said they would immediately reverse the unpopular pension changes pushed through last year by Macron’s government and return the French retirement age to 60, as well as overturning a more recent change to unemployment benefits and introducing a wealth tax.

    They said France’s minimum wage and pension would be raised, while the NPF would also demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, recognise the state of Palestine, continue supplying necessary arms to Ukraine and legislate for carbon neutrality by 2050."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

    So, sounds like good news for Ukraine.

    Indeed I suspect such a manifesto would have done well here last week.

    Vive La France!
    Did Free Owls get a mention?
    I don't think the NPF policies are financially sound, but no worse than Reform or the Greens were.
  • Options
    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,229
    Matchity match
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    mwadams said:

    Since the war is being mentioned, I'm sure I've read on here that it's a good thing for all sides, including actual Stalinists, to ally against the Narzees.

    Hey, I didn't mention that war, I mentioned the one before it, the war to end all wars that was World War I.
    Meanwhile, Nigel is reminiscing about the Battle of Mboto Gorge and the way Britain used to project power in the world, unafraid of sharpened mangoes.
    Does anyone have a cleft stick handy, AND services of a (politically) reliable native bearer?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    If it's true that Le Pen's lot have come third, you've just got to laugh given all the predictions.

    This is heading towards being one of the best political weeks of my long life.

    Spare a thought for me.

    Only the French have given me electoral joy this week.

    FFS, I've had to rely on the French!
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    Raducan’tu loses. Shocked.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,407
     

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    And your evidence for that?
    This is the NPF policy:

    "The NPF, presenting its policies on Friday, said its top priority if elected would be the cost of living crisis, which was “harming the lives and confidence of the French people”. It pledged to cap the price of essential foods, as well as electricity, gas and petrol.

    The parties also said they would immediately reverse the unpopular pension changes pushed through last year by Macron’s government and return the French retirement age to 60, as well as overturning a more recent change to unemployment benefits and introducing a wealth tax.

    They said France’s minimum wage and pension would be raised, while the NPF would also demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, recognise the state of Palestine, continue supplying necessary arms to Ukraine and legislate for carbon neutrality by 2050."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

    So, sounds like good news for Ukraine.

    Indeed I suspect such a manifesto would have done well here last week.

    Vive La France!
    Some manifestos are designed to get votes.

    Some manifestos are designed to be put into practice.

    The problem arises when those designed to get votes have to be put into practice.
    and those designed to be put into practice won't get the votes

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Love this meme, always have.


  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,331
    Leon said:

    The rumoured demise of the mosquito seems to have been greatly exaggerated. At least in the Luberon

    Ouch

    Nah, they've just got brave mosquitoes if they want to bite you... ;)
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690

    If it's true that Le Pen's lot have come third, you've just got to laugh given all the predictions.

    This is heading towards being one of the best political weeks of my long life.

    Spare a thought for me.

    Only the French have given me electoral joy this week.

    FFS, I've had to rely on the French!
    The French AND the British have definitely increased my personally jollity over the 4th of July loooooong weekend!

    Definitely more than anything happening on this side of the Atlantic OR the Pacific.

    Where we're waiting for decision by the Decider-in-Chief = Dr. Jill Biden.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,774

    Leon said:

    The rumoured demise of the mosquito seems to have been greatly exaggerated. At least in the Luberon

    Ouch

    Nah, they've just got brave mosquitoes if they want to bite you... ;)
    As Patsy Stone said, "The last mosquito that bit me had to check into the Betty Ford clinic."
  • Options
    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,763
    edited July 7
    Has that new Andrex advert been dreamed up by CCHQ staffers?

    Meanwhile are Allianz trying to deter 52% of motorists from going with them?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    geoffw said:

     

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    And your evidence for that?
    This is the NPF policy:

    "The NPF, presenting its policies on Friday, said its top priority if elected would be the cost of living crisis, which was “harming the lives and confidence of the French people”. It pledged to cap the price of essential foods, as well as electricity, gas and petrol.

    The parties also said they would immediately reverse the unpopular pension changes pushed through last year by Macron’s government and return the French retirement age to 60, as well as overturning a more recent change to unemployment benefits and introducing a wealth tax.

    They said France’s minimum wage and pension would be raised, while the NPF would also demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, recognise the state of Palestine, continue supplying necessary arms to Ukraine and legislate for carbon neutrality by 2050."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

    So, sounds like good news for Ukraine.

    Indeed I suspect such a manifesto would have done well here last week.

    Vive La France!
    Some manifestos are designed to get votes.

    Some manifestos are designed to be put into practice.

    The problem arises when those designed to get votes have to be put into practice.
    and those designed to be put into practice won't get the votes

    Some will, but hence the cautiousness and low key Labour one last week. The knew that if they promised free owls they would have to do it.

    Every other party could get away with irresponsible promises, but not Labour.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    And your evidence for that?
    This is the NPF policy:

    "The NPF, presenting its policies on Friday, said its top priority if elected would be the cost of living crisis, which was “harming the lives and confidence of the French people”. It pledged to cap the price of essential foods, as well as electricity, gas and petrol.

    The parties also said they would immediately reverse the unpopular pension changes pushed through last year by Macron’s government and return the French retirement age to 60, as well as overturning a more recent change to unemployment benefits and introducing a wealth tax.

    They said France’s minimum wage and pension would be raised, while the NPF would also demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, recognise the state of Palestine, continue supplying necessary arms to Ukraine and legislate for carbon neutrality by 2050."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

    So, sounds like good news for Ukraine.

    Indeed I suspect such a manifesto would have done well here last week.

    Vive La France!
    Vive La France! Has Sean Fear ever commented on a left wing government that isn't anti semitic and pro putin?
    Well, the current Labour government isn’t.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,407
    Foxy said:

    geoffw said:

     

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    And your evidence for that?
    This is the NPF policy:

    "The NPF, presenting its policies on Friday, said its top priority if elected would be the cost of living crisis, which was “harming the lives and confidence of the French people”. It pledged to cap the price of essential foods, as well as electricity, gas and petrol.

    The parties also said they would immediately reverse the unpopular pension changes pushed through last year by Macron’s government and return the French retirement age to 60, as well as overturning a more recent change to unemployment benefits and introducing a wealth tax.

    They said France’s minimum wage and pension would be raised, while the NPF would also demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, recognise the state of Palestine, continue supplying necessary arms to Ukraine and legislate for carbon neutrality by 2050."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

    So, sounds like good news for Ukraine.

    Indeed I suspect such a manifesto would have done well here last week.

    Vive La France!
    Some manifestos are designed to get votes.

    Some manifestos are designed to be put into practice.

    The problem arises when those designed to get votes have to be put into practice.
    and those designed to be put into practice won't get the votes

    Some will, but hence the cautiousness and low key Labour one last week. The knew that if they promised free owls they would have to do it.

    Every other party could get away with irresponsible promises, but not Labour.
    what promises did they make?

  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671
    I see Bardella is now moaning about a stitch up .

    Apparently those mean people deprived them of their rightful place in winning the election .
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,798
    Are polling misses this large common in France?
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,403

    Not a good night for Nigel by looks of things.

    Odds for Crystal Palace to be relegated next season?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,821
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    And your evidence for that?
    This is the NPF policy:

    "The NPF, presenting its policies on Friday, said its top priority if elected would be the cost of living crisis, which was “harming the lives and confidence of the French people”. It pledged to cap the price of essential foods, as well as electricity, gas and petrol.

    The parties also said they would immediately reverse the unpopular pension changes pushed through last year by Macron’s government and return the French retirement age to 60, as well as overturning a more recent change to unemployment benefits and introducing a wealth tax.

    They said France’s minimum wage and pension would be raised, while the NPF would also demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, recognise the state of Palestine, continue supplying necessary arms to Ukraine and legislate for carbon neutrality by 2050."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

    So, sounds like good news for Ukraine.

    Indeed I suspect such a manifesto would have done well here last week.

    Vive La France!
    Did Free Owls get a mention?
    I don't think the NPF policies are financially sound, but no worse than Reform or the Greens were.
    Reform and Greens have a total of 9 MPs.

    There's a majority for financially unsound in France.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 5,085

    If it's true that Le Pen's lot have come third, you've just got to laugh given all the predictions.

    This is heading towards being one of the best political weeks of my long life.

    Spare a thought for me.

    Only the French have given me electoral joy this week.

    FFS, I've had to rely on the French!
    The French AND the British have definitely increased my personally jollity over the 4th of July loooooong weekend!

    Definitely more than anything happening on this side of the Atlantic OR the Pacific.

    Where we're waiting for decision by the Decider-in-Chief = Dr. Jill Biden.
    It’s a good job Dr Jill is a doctor so she will be able to help Joe. She is a doctor isn’t she, like a real doctor and not one of those people who uses the title in a completely inappropriate way?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,019
    Taz said:

    Raducan’tu loses. Shocked.

    Surprised she was playing tbh thought she had a wrist injury
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Is there a chance the UK election result could have influenced the French one?

    I certainly got French colleagues expressing envy at the UK developments on Friday.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Taz said:

    Raducan’tu loses. Shocked.

    The unsurprising part is getting injured again.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 30,246
    Emma needs to spend more time in the gym, Lulu Sun has more muscle.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,032
    boulay said:

    If it's true that Le Pen's lot have come third, you've just got to laugh given all the predictions.

    This is heading towards being one of the best political weeks of my long life.

    Spare a thought for me.

    Only the French have given me electoral joy this week.

    FFS, I've had to rely on the French!
    The French AND the British have definitely increased my personally jollity over the 4th of July loooooong weekend!

    Definitely more than anything happening on this side of the Atlantic OR the Pacific.

    Where we're waiting for decision by the Decider-in-Chief = Dr. Jill Biden.
    It’s a good job Dr Jill is a doctor so she will be able to help Joe. She is a doctor isn’t she, like a real doctor and not one of those people who uses the title in a completely inappropriate way?
    Dr. Feelgood
  • Options
    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,798
    TimS said:

    Is there a chance the UK election result could have influenced the French one?

    I certainly got French colleagues expressing envy at the UK developments on Friday.

    I don't believe the average frenchman goes into a polling station thinking "what would a briton do", or the other way around.

    A tiny number? Maybe.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    FPT:

    MattW said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think it's real shame Jess Phillips held on to her seat:

    https://x.com/LBC/status/1809910681983959081

    Completely in denial.

    I think it's a good analysis - pointing out that a move to fringe stunts adjacent to violence is a practice across various campaign groups. It's stuff the likes of the SWP and eg some Islamists and the Far Right have been doing forever, and now it has the added attraction of viewers on social media.
    Not all muslims are the same. Rowan Williams the late Archbishop of Canterbury and Ian Paisley (senior) were both Christians but almost totally different religions

    We are very blessed that many Muslims in this country are Ahmadis who are wholly peaceful and non voilent. Wonderful people but regarded as heritics by militants.

    And dare I say it that where there is trouble it is less to do with religion and more to do with a lot of little educated people from certain remote rural areas being brought in by the owners of declining mills, due to manual skills that enabled them to be (very) cheap labour and brought with them many customs that would not have been wholy unfamiliar to Thomas Hardy.

    Some did extraordinarily well, but many ended up in virtual ghettoes with little attempt to bring them in to the mainstream and basically abandonment of them when the mills went bust a decade or two later. In such a siutation communities become insular.
    I'd basically agree with a couple of caveats.

    I think that she is correct to apply "idiot" to the method not the ideology. The behaviour she describes has certain similarities with eg drive-by-abusers on twitter or blog commenters; it's about assertion and abuse and not being capable or interested of engaging in a conversation.

    I think that were Yaxley-Lennon doing that, she would call him an idiot.

    On Muslims, there's a vast diversity of movements, eg quietists who want to be left alone with their society, like in Christian terms the Amish or in Jewish terms certain Orthodox groups.

    Throughout my adulthood I have met and discussed with some Muslims who obey the law of the land, yet also look to see an Islamic State / Caliphate be created, or a Islamic Republic modelled on Iran - a Muslim Majority changes the belief about how it should be run. It's peaceful, but uncompromising.

    There are movements around linked to the Muslim Brotherhood (an Egyptian Movement from the 1st half of 20C which has an intellectual base but also merges into violence).

    If you look for roots of Islamist thought in this country, one source is that Mosques were heavily funded, and Imams sent in or trained, by Middle Eastern countries, in the 1970s. And by Iran in competition with Saudi Arabia etc from the 1980s. That's wrapped up in Sunni-Shia religious competition, and in Arab-Persian nationalist competition. We have problems when these type of institutions gain prominence and thought-leadership.

    The Ahmadis have their world headquarters here (Watford) because General Zia Ul-Haq expelled them from Pakistan in ~1984 by declaring in law & constitution that they cannot call themseles Muslims subject to a prison sentence; in Pakistan that is open season. The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation takes a similar stance.

    In Islam there is also a very great sense of internationalism around the concept of Ummah, the worldwide community, which is far more tangible than say similar concepts in Christianity, and also around the Hajj.

  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    FPT:

    MattW said:

    tlg86 said:

    I think it's real shame Jess Phillips held on to her seat:

    https://x.com/LBC/status/1809910681983959081

    Completely in denial.

    I think it's a good analysis - pointing out that a move to fringe stunts adjacent to violence is a practice across various campaign groups. It's stuff the likes of the SWP and eg some Islamists and the Far Right have been doing forever, and now it has the added attraction of viewers on social media.
    Not all muslims are the same. Rowan Williams the late Archbishop of Canterbury and Ian Paisley (senior) were both Christians but almost totally different religions

    We are very blessed that many Muslims in this country are Ahmadis who are wholly peaceful and non voilent. Wonderful people but regarded as heritics by militants.

    And dare I say it that where there is trouble it is less to do with religion and more to do with a lot of little educated people from certain remote rural areas being brought in by the owners of declining mills, due to manual skills that enabled them to be (very) cheap labour and brought with them many customs that would not have been wholy unfamiliar to Thomas Hardy.

    Some did extraordinarily well, but many ended up in virtual ghettoes with little attempt to bring them in to the mainstream and basically abandonment of them when the mills went bust a decade or two later. In such a siutation communities become insular.
    I'd basically agree with a couple of caveats.

    I think that she is correct to apply "idiot" to the method not the ideology. The behaviour she describes has certain similarities with eg drive-by-abusers on twitter or blog commenters; it's about assertion and abuse and not being capable or interested of engaging in a conversation.

    I think that were Yaxley-Lennon doing that, she would call him an idiot.

    On Muslims, there's a vast diversity of movements, eg quietists who want to be left alone with their society, like in Christian terms the Amish or in Jewish terms certain Orthodox groups.

    Throughout my adulthood I have met and discussed with some Muslims who obey the law of the land, yet also look to see an Islamic State / Caliphate be created, or a Islamic Republic modelled on Iran - a Muslim Majority changes the belief about how it should be run. It's peaceful, but uncompromising.

    There are movements around linked to the Muslim Brotherhood (an Egyptian Movement from the 1st half of 20C which has an intellectual base but also merges into violence).

    If you look for roots of Islamist thought in this country, one source is that Mosques were heavily funded, and Imams sent in or trained, by Middle Eastern countries, in the 1970s. And by Iran in competition with Saudi Arabia etc from the 1980s. That's wrapped up in Sunni-Shia religious competition, and in Arab-Persian nationalist competition. We have problems when these type of institutions gain prominence and thought-leadership.

    The Ahmadis have their world headquarters here (Watford) because General Zia Ul-Haq expelled them from Pakistan in ~1984 by declaring in law & constitution that they cannot call themseles Muslims subject to a prison sentence; in Pakistan that is open season. The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation takes a similar stance.

    In Islam there is also a very great sense of internationalism around the concept of Ummah, the worldwide community, which is far more tangible than say similar concepts in Christianity, and also around the Hajj.

  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    Maybe the answer is not the Battle of Verdun but use the example of the Treaty of Verdun, in the year 843, and divide France once again into three. As J Caesar said 900 years before that, Gallia est omnis divisa in partes tres.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    Is there a chance the UK election result could have influenced the French one?

    I certainly got French colleagues expressing envy at the UK developments on Friday.

    I don't believe the average frenchman goes into a polling station thinking "what would a briton do", or the other way around.

    A tiny number? Maybe.
    I always vote thinking 'How can we reverse the losses incurred by Henry VI in the 15th century.' Doesn't everyone?
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    edited July 7
    77% for the Macronistes in St Vincent des Pres. Lib Dem surge.

    Chers voisins, je suis fier de vous.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194
    algarkirk said:

    Maybe the answer is not the Battle of Verdun but use the example of the Treaty of Verdun, in the year 843, and divide France once again into three. As J Caesar said 900 years before that, Gallia est omnis divisa in partes tres.

    Surely a declaration that France is France, and under the steady and reliable hand of KC3. I see they've got the issue over the Atlantic too. The same easy solution.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 16,690
    Thoughts and prayers for the right-winger so obviously - and hilariously - losing their (horse) shit over recent developments.

    Snowflakes perhaps should find a convenient walk-in cooler to mitigate the melting?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489
    Le Pen and the far right are finished. If any PBer is in the Luberon could they make sure Leon has no sharp objects in his house.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited July 7
    Foxy said:

    On a more serious point, the UK election campaign and election night has wiped me out on an emotional level.

    If any you have any guest pieces you wish to submit, send me a Vanilla message.

    I have a quiet week so will see what I can do.

    What is the best file format to put a few images and graphs in.
    I've been wondering whether submitting one about Car Parking :smile: , and how it needs to change, and the politics of it, would calm everything down.
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    DopermeanDopermean Posts: 126

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Omnium said:

    This can't end well.

    What's it about a democratic rejection of racists and fascists that bothers you?
    Melenchon is an anti-Semite and pro-Putin, and will now be a power-broker.
    And your evidence for that?
    This is the NPF policy:

    "The NPF, presenting its policies on Friday, said its top priority if elected would be the cost of living crisis, which was “harming the lives and confidence of the French people”. It pledged to cap the price of essential foods, as well as electricity, gas and petrol.

    The parties also said they would immediately reverse the unpopular pension changes pushed through last year by Macron’s government and return the French retirement age to 60, as well as overturning a more recent change to unemployment benefits and introducing a wealth tax.

    They said France’s minimum wage and pension would be raised, while the NPF would also demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, recognise the state of Palestine, continue supplying necessary arms to Ukraine and legislate for carbon neutrality by 2050."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

    So, sounds like good news for Ukraine.

    Indeed I suspect such a manifesto would have done well here last week.

    Vive La France!
    Did Free Owls get a mention?
    I don't think the NPF policies are financially sound, but no worse than Reform or the Greens were.
    Reform and Greens have a total of 9 MPs.

    There's a majority for financially unsound in France.
    Holidayed in Northern Spain last summer, shocked at how cheap it was to eat out. Turns out they'd capped fuel prices and supported the energy companies.

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    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    edited July 7
    I think I’ve actually arrived during the biannual Mosquito Festival

    Mosquitoes have gathered from across the world - India, Malaysia, Egypt, Senegal, famous veterans from Brazil, huge mosquitoes like condors from Indonesia, they’re all here and tonight’s the traditional Bite a Brit opening ceremony
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489
    TimS said:

    Is there a chance the UK election result could have influenced the French one?

    I certainly got French colleagues expressing envy at the UK developments on Friday.

    I wondered the same. i think it's very likely. It certainly would have given the left and centre a boost.
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