These seat numbers in France. Do they include the seats already won in the first round by the Fash RN? Seats like, ooh, random example - ROGER’s constituency in Villefranche?
Huge day in France where elites are working overtime to block Le Pen. My take? She will only get stronger & stronger until those same elites address people's concerns over mass immigration, radical Islam & the erosion of Western societies
The so called far right surge in Europe never really happened.
In the EU elections, it was really only RN and AfD, who seem to hate each other, and now the RN are coming THIRD in these assembly elections.
Farage meanwhile (who I would necessarily call far right but some of the weird creatures floating about Refuk certainly are) only managed 4 seats.
It has happened, at the last election in France RN had under 20 seats, now they're going to have over 200. It's not a majority but it's a huge boost to the party and if the hard left/centre left alliance continues to ignore immigration reform then that 40% ceiling will begin to approach 50% as we get to 2026 and the presidential election.
Exit poll said 134-152. So far they have 131 with 123 seats to go.
Lots of Paris and other left places though
Yeah, check out the results map; provinces outside of Paris region are pret' near finished counting.
I think there is a fairly hard ceiling in France for NR support at 40%, regardless of how bad things might get 40% is the limit. That means no NR president and no NR majority but it is extremely worrying that 40% of people in France are ready to vote for NR and that there's no party in the centre that is defusing their support. They've just ignored the issues driving that support and this is the result. It's a warning to everyone in Europe right now, issues around immigration, asylum and housing costs all need to be taken seriously.
The problem with that thinking is that people have, repeatedly, over the years, stated that the National Ramblers have a ceiling of X. Where X is a bit above their latest best showing.
These seat numbers in France. Do they include the seats already won in the first round by the Fash RN? Seats like, ooh, random example - ROGER’s constituency in Villefranche?
Isn't that rather more young people voting Conservative than predicted ?
The key numbers are the 65+ demographic - in 2019 64% voted for Boris Johnson against 17% for Corbyn. The swing away from the Conservatives to the LDs and Reform is significant in explaining why so many affluent seats in southern and eastern England went LD.
I'd be looking at the correlation between LD gains and the demographic profile of a seat.
No gratitude from too many oldies perhaps ?
Or maybe they have high enough standards that they were repulsed by the misconduct of the Conservatives ?
The huge swing away from the Conservatives among older voters has been a constant feature of polling since 2022. Nothing the Conservatives did (Triple Lock) made any difference. We need much more research to identify the whys and wherefores and I'm sure that will happen.
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
These seat numbers in France. Do they include the seats already won in the first round by the Fash RN? Seats like, ooh, random example - ROGER’s constituency in Villefranche?
They do. 122 seats still to declare for the full Assembly.
I’m sorry to see Farooq go. He is/was quite witty and often said very interesting things.
The truth is there are whole spells when @Leon clogs up the site with shite about aliens, the supposed rise of the far right, how shite Britain is etc. At least the incessant travel pictures have been banned.
It’s a challenge for the editors. It’s possible Leon repels more contributors than he gains actual readers.
You're not wrong but let me be absolutely clear: this isn't a "me or him" thing. I'm off and not coming back no matter what happens. I'm not asking for anything, just giving the courtesy of saying goodbye before I delete my account.
Now let's get back to talking about France. I'm not here to be the centre of attention.
If this French result is as it appears, calling the election has been a masterstroke by Macron. We saw Sanchez do something similar recently in Spain. If only Rishi had done the s... oh he did. Oh well. Two out of three ain't bad.
A masterstroke, no. Is he a very lucky general, yes.
He gambled on the people of France, and he was right. Well played, Manu. Now France to win Euro 2024 and they'll be dancing on the streets of Paris.
His PM is resigning in the morning. He will have to try some form of cohabitation with the socialist grouping about whom he has always been incredibly rude. He has lost control of domestic policy. But yes, he has proved that a majority of the French do not support the far right.
And it's going to make the next guy's job even more difficult because the hard left are not going to countenance any immigration reforms or asylum reforms that would help ensure that RN don't breach that 40% ceiling. This is a disaster, cohabitation with France's Corbyn is horrific.
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
I assumed that he was the only one attending who had a clear idea of exactly what he wanted. I really didn't see that changing with the change of government, if anything, his clarity of purpose was going to stand out even more.
Huge day in France where elites are working overtime to block Le Pen. My take? She will only get stronger & stronger until those same elites address people's concerns over mass immigration, radical Islam & the erosion of Western societies
These seat numbers in France. Do they include the seats already won in the first round by the Fash RN? Seats like, ooh, random example - ROGER’s constituency in Villefranche?
They do. 122 seats still to declare for the full Assembly.
These seat numbers in France. Do they include the seats already won in the first round by the Fash RN? Seats like, ooh, random example - ROGER’s constituency in Villefranche?
They do. 122 seats still to declare for the full Assembly.
One of the reasons I’m stepping back from this forum is the ridiculous aggression and downright abuse that accompanies @Leon ’s certitude.
He ‘may’ be right about Biden although he is not a medic. He might be right about various other things, but it’s all clouded in Trumpian aggression and abuse. He has been completely wrong about countless things including this latest aggression over the victory of the Far Right in France.
I’m tired of the nonsense. This was one of the few places left on the internet where people of different persuasions could objectively discuss the direction of politics in a way that informed not only the debate but also their bets.
I’ll leave it there.
Enjoy yourselves and be kind. And don’t believe all the extremists. There are enough decent people still left in this world, even across La Manche.
I feel the same. I won't be here again after today. That's a guarantee.
Why? I like your posts and you seemed to be one of those posters who trod your own furrow and therefore wasn't bothered by what anyone thought which I like
If SKS had any sense, with this massive majority he would immediately scrap the stupid triple lock. But he won't.
No, he's backed into a corner there. Extend NI to all income - that would raise enough to cover the cost of the triple lock for a few years.
Reducing the 2.5% element to 0.5% might be a possibility but smacks of underhandedness.
Extend NI to all income and the top rate of tax becomes 53%, the state taking more than half of someone income is immoral. I and many others go out to work to ear for myself and my family, not for the state.
I would just retire if they did that, lowering my net tax contribution
Isn't that rather more young people voting Conservative than predicted ?
By who(m)?
By opinion polls reported here.
No details I afraid so my memory might be wrong IIRC there were predictions of below 10% for the youngest age group.
Presumably SOME predictions of below 10% for the yout?
Note that subsample(s) would logically have pretty high margin of error; meaning that 14% youth-Con vote may well be within margin(s) of error for youngest voter cohort.
Well I don't know but Sean Fear says its a swing to the right since 2019 so I'll leave it at that.
As usual, @Sean_F is overegging the Conservative side of the story.
In 2019, the 18-24 age group voted 62% Labour, 19% Conservative, 9% LD and 10% Others. The Focaldata numbers are Labour 47%, Conservative 14%, Green 14%, Reform 11% and LD 8%.
Yes, a 5% swing to Conservative from Labour but Conservatives still down among younger voters and tied with Greens who are the big winners (Reform did well). Again, look at where the Greens won or did well and see the demographic profile of the seat - may be informative.
Doesn't that depend on what type of Green voter - young urban leftists or old rural nimbys ?
Huge day in France where elites are working overtime to block Le Pen. My take? She will only get stronger & stronger until those same elites address people's concerns over mass immigration, radical Islam & the erosion of Western societies
Huge day in France where elites are working overtime to block Le Pen. My take? She will only get stronger & stronger until those same elites address people's concerns over mass immigration, radical Islam & the erosion of Western societies
This is the sort of loopy nonsense I mean, Goodwin has completely gone off the deep end, something is up.
He's right. Macron now has cohabitation with France's version of hard left Corbynists and Putin/Hamas supporters, that's going to make it impossible for them to address all of the issues that are driving French people into the arms of RN.
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
This being France, i like to think that;’s because there are weird social rules, like NO ONE wears salmon pink shorts in Valence before July, and all mosquitoes stop biting at 9pm or the cicadas will cluck in disapproval
Huge day in France where elites are working overtime to block Le Pen. My take? She will only get stronger & stronger until those same elites address people's concerns over mass immigration, radical Islam & the erosion of Western societies
These seat numbers in France. Do they include the seats already won in the first round by the Fash RN? Seats like, ooh, random example - ROGER’s constituency in Villefranche?
They do. 122 seats still to declare for the full Assembly.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
The issue for the Tories now is that if they want to win back voters under the age of 65, they are going to have to about turn on their slavish support for the elderly. I am not seeing signs they are wanting to do that, it still seems like collective denial about what has happened.
It's been 72 hours. I know we've all been rushing to do detailed analysis but the politicians themselves need time to rest and reflect.
Do you think Jenrick and Braverman amongst others have the intelligence to do it, really?
I'd be backing Hunt or Tom T if I were a Tory.
At the moment, those who are pontificating from within the Conservative Party are doing so for personal advantage. I doubt they have even begun to think through what happened and why it happened and what the solutions to the party's problems might be and where they might be found.
After weeks of campaigning, I suspect most of them need sleep, time with their families and time to think and you don't get any of that turning up on Sunday political shows.
This forum seems full of people with the answers but I doubr we're any better off.
Best just to forget the Conservative Party for a few weeks and get on with the real political business.
There is a long way to go, but in ideological respects there truly are the makings of a Tory split. Like a few million other formerly loyal Tories mine has been lost since Patersongate and Partygate, and was wavering from the moment of Cameron's resignation after Brexit vote, and the failure to prepare a post Brexit detailed plan.
In Toryland, including those excluded like Gauke, there are at least these factions: Close to Labour (as it currently is) Close to LD Old style One Nation Small state libertarians Reform style large state authoritarians.
At this point if a Braverman type becomes leader I am off for good. But if a Tugendhat did a Starmer style purge of the extremes I would start looking again. I doubt if this is just me.
Isn't that rather more young people voting Conservative than predicted ?
By who(m)?
By opinion polls reported here.
No details I afraid so my memory might be wrong IIRC there were predictions of below 10% for the youngest age group.
Presumably SOME predictions of below 10% for the yout?
Note that subsample(s) would logically have pretty high margin of error; meaning that 14% youth-Con vote may well be within margin(s) of error for youngest voter cohort.
Well I don't know but Sean Fear says its a swing to the right since 2019 so I'll leave it at that.
As usual, @Sean_F is overegging the Conservative side of the story.
In 2019, the 18-24 age group voted 62% Labour, 19% Conservative, 9% LD and 10% Others. The Focaldata numbers are Labour 47%, Conservative 14%, Green 14%, Reform 11% and LD 8%.
Yes, a 5% swing to Conservative from Labour but Conservatives still down among younger voters and tied with Greens who are the big winners (Reform did well). Again, look at where the Greens won or did well and see the demographic profile of the seat - may be informative.
Doesn't that depend on what type of Green voter - young urban leftists or old rural nimbys ?
Yes and I think we can see that - I know little of Waveney Valley or North Herefordshire but I can hazard a guess the Bristol and Brighton seats have more of the former and in my part of the world the Greens polled a strong third in all the Newham seats, well ahead of the Conservatives. The Greens also did well in inner south London in Lewisham and other seats - no threat to Labour now but they have supplanted both the Conservatives and LDs as the main repository for anti-Labour votes and the 2026 London local elections may well show this continuing.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
Huge day in France where elites are working overtime to block Le Pen. My take? She will only get stronger & stronger until those same elites address people's concerns over mass immigration, radical Islam & the erosion of Western societies
This is the sort of loopy nonsense I mean, Goodwin has completely gone off the deep end, something is up.
He's right. Macron now has cohabitation with France's version of hard left Corbynists and Putin/Hamas supporters, that's going to make it impossible for them to address all of the issues that are driving French people into the arms of RN.
It is guaranteed chaos. I hereby predict Macron will call another election as soon as he can, as this is unworkable
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
The UK may look deeply comedic to you. OK we have cats attending cabinet, but we don't have an average of 3.6 mass shootings a day, so who are the real doofuses here?
If attack line spin means pointing out that Joe is doolally: I don't identify as anything in particular in the UK but USA wise I am sure as fuck a Democrat, despite only visiting the country for about a month about every 3,years. I firmly believe that Biden is demented and that the interests of his party the USA and the world absolutely require recognition of that fact. Do you call that,bilge and if so why?
Huge day in France where elites are working overtime to block Le Pen. My take? She will only get stronger & stronger until those same elites address people's concerns over mass immigration, radical Islam & the erosion of Western societies
These seat numbers in France. Do they include the seats already won in the first round by the Fash RN? Seats like, ooh, random example - ROGER’s constituency in Villefranche?
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
In fairness to Macron as well, he took the great tactical advantage of the incumbent - the initiative - and used it.
Contrast with Sunak who dithered and dilly-dallied when he should have gone to the nation *much* sooner; ideally (for him) immediately.
The issue for the Tories now is that if they want to win back voters under the age of 65, they are going to have to about turn on their slavish support for the elderly. I am not seeing signs they are wanting to do that, it still seems like collective denial about what has happened.
It's been 72 hours. I know we've all been rushing to do detailed analysis but the politicians themselves need time to rest and reflect.
Do you think Jenrick and Braverman amongst others have the intelligence to do it, really?
I'd be backing Hunt or Tom T if I were a Tory.
At the moment, those who are pontificating from within the Conservative Party are doing so for personal advantage. I doubt they have even begun to think through what happened and why it happened and what the solutions to the party's problems might be and where they might be found.
After weeks of campaigning, I suspect most of them need sleep, time with their families and time to think and you don't get any of that turning up on Sunday political shows.
This forum seems full of people with the answers but I doubr we're any better off.
Best just to forget the Conservative Party for a few weeks and get on with the real political business.
There is a long way to go, but in ideological respects there truly are the makings of a Tory split. Like a few million other formerly loyal Tories mine has been lost since Patersongate and Partygate, and was wavering from the moment of Cameron's resignation after Brexit vote, and the failure to prepare a post Brexit detailed plan.
In Toryland, including those excluded like Gauke, there are at least these factions: Close to Labour (as it currently is) Close to LD Old style One Nation Small state libertarians Reform style large state authoritarians.
At this point if a Braverman type becomes leader I am off for good. But if a Tugendhat did a Starmer style purge of the extremes I would start looking again. I doubt if this is just me.
As I well remember from 1987, the immediate post election period can be used by opportunists to try to force defeated parties into ill thought-out change.
The truth is no one but us political geeks will be giving politics any real thought for the next three months (unless a black swan event occurs).
The question I'd be putting to ALL political people is how do we increase turnout? How do we get people to re-engage with the political process and not say "they're all the same"?
The so called far right surge in Europe never really happened.
In the EU elections, it was really only RN and AfD, who seem to hate each other, and now the RN are coming THIRD in these assembly elections.
Farage meanwhile (who I would necessarily call far right but some of the weird creatures floating about Refuk certainly are) only managed 4 seats.
It has happened, at the last election in France RN had under 20 seats, now they're going to have over 200. It's not a majority but it's a huge boost to the party and if the hard left/centre left alliance continues to ignore immigration reform then that 40% ceiling will begin to approach 50% as we get to 2026 and the presidential election.
Exit poll said 134-152. So far they have 131 with 123 seats to go.
150 or so seems about right. That’s up from 89. It’s the Macronists who are the losers.
Things would look very different if the NFP hadn't moved very quickly to form an official coalition before the first round. They contain quite a disparate group of parties and it remains to be seen whether they will have any meaningful unity once the votes are counted.
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
I assumed that he was the only one attending who had a clear idea of exactly what he wanted. I really didn't see that changing with the change of government, if anything, his clarity of purpose was going to stand out even more.
Recommend that the cabinet attendee with lowest seniority be tasked with maintaining a stash of cat treats, toys, catnip, for critical role of keeping Larry onside.
Believe that Dick Whittington had similar policy . . . but substituting nice tasty Wapping warf rats . . .
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
You get my point!
Starmer has a family cat called Jojo according to Sunday Times.
Vic is worried that Larry and Jojo may not find common ground.
Why on earth do people threaten to flounce off when a poster irritates them? It's a shame, don't do it. Leon can be a bit annoying, particularly in his repetitiveness, but he is also very entertaining and quite amusing at times- if you don't like it, don't read it. And if he insults you, he's quite happy for you to tell him to fuck off.
A confession - there's a fair few posters on here who I find deeply irritating, and not usually for political reasons; it's the pompous, know-it-all, I could do a better job than any politician, public official or journalist type of posters who get on my nerves. But guess what? I just ignore them.
Looks closer than the exit polls then nonetheless no coherent government can be formed from that and Macron's centrist block looks likely to be 3rd so still a dreadful result for the Elysee
Isn't that rather more young people voting Conservative than predicted ?
By who(m)?
By opinion polls reported here.
No details I afraid so my memory might be wrong IIRC there were predictions of below 10% for the youngest age group.
Presumably SOME predictions of below 10% for the yout?
Note that subsample(s) would logically have pretty high margin of error; meaning that 14% youth-Con vote may well be within margin(s) of error for youngest voter cohort.
Well I don't know but Sean Fear says its a swing to the right since 2019 so I'll leave it at that.
As usual, @Sean_F is overegging the Conservative side of the story.
In 2019, the 18-24 age group voted 62% Labour, 19% Conservative, 9% LD and 10% Others. The Focaldata numbers are Labour 47%, Conservative 14%, Green 14%, Reform 11% and LD 8%.
Yes, a 5% swing to Conservative from Labour but Conservatives still down among younger voters and tied with Greens who are the big winners (Reform did well). Again, look at where the Greens won or did well and see the demographic profile of the seat - may be informative.
Doesn't that depend on what type of Green voter - young urban leftists or old rural nimbys ?
Yes and I think we can see that - I know little of Waveney Valley or North Herefordshire but I can hazard a guess the Bristol and Brighton seats have more of the former and in my part of the world the Greens polled a strong third in all the Newham seats, well ahead of the Conservatives. The Greens also did well in inner south London in Lewisham and other seats - no threat to Labour now but they have supplanted both the Conservatives and LDs as the main repository for anti-Labour votes and the 2026 London local elections may well show this continuing.
Greens have done well in places where they have a strong presence in local government. This is the LD’s secret sauce; it’s a lot easier to find a fringe party credible if they haven’t made a total pig’s arse of local gov (as the hard right tend to).
Isn't that rather more young people voting Conservative than predicted ?
By who(m)?
By opinion polls reported here.
No details I afraid so my memory might be wrong IIRC there were predictions of below 10% for the youngest age group.
Presumably SOME predictions of below 10% for the yout?
Note that subsample(s) would logically have pretty high margin of error; meaning that 14% youth-Con vote may well be within margin(s) of error for youngest voter cohort.
Well I don't know but Sean Fear says its a swing to the right since 2019 so I'll leave it at that.
As usual, @Sean_F is overegging the Conservative side of the story.
In 2019, the 18-24 age group voted 62% Labour, 19% Conservative, 9% LD and 10% Others. The Focaldata numbers are Labour 47%, Conservative 14%, Green 14%, Reform 11% and LD 8%.
Yes, a 5% swing to Conservative from Labour but Conservatives still down among younger voters and tied with Greens who are the big winners (Reform did well). Again, look at where the Greens won or did well and see the demographic profile of the seat - may be informative.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
In fairness to Macron as well, he took the great tactical advantage of the incumbent - the initiative - and used it.
Contrast with Sunak who dithered and dilly-dallied when he should have gone to the nation *much* sooner; ideally (for him) immediately.
Yes, even in the immediate wake of Truss, calling an election would have looked bold and decisive and would have drawn a line under the past.
If SKS had any sense, with this massive majority he would immediately scrap the stupid triple lock. But he won't.
No, he's backed into a corner there. Extend NI to all income - that would raise enough to cover the cost of the triple lock for a few years.
Reducing the 2.5% element to 0.5% might be a possibility but smacks of underhandedness.
I can just see NI being extended to all income for future oldies but present oldies being exempted.
Too complex. And what's the logic? Phase it in over 5 years maybe, alongside the triple lock.
Not logic but personal fear that I'm going to get financially hit multiple ways while others get protected.
I'm already assuming that my state pension age will be put back a year which is the equivalent of a £11k hit.
Now I don't mind too much if all future earnings come under NI but I really don't want NI to be put on any income from my pension fund that I've already saved as that would be a few tens of thousands more.
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
You get my point!
Sadly it failed to gain enough traction to make significant dents in the Labour majority in 2001. I think they ended up photographing Humphrey (or perhaps a Manchurian-style stand in) with some newspapers to convince the public that they hadn't euthanased him.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
Founded a polling company with the worst record of any pollster and thought Le Pen was a shoe in and she's losing.
He is a grade A prat.
Goodwin is a mixed bag, and needs a directional shift. As a politics academic who wrote readable books about the rise and meaning of populism he seems to me to have found a field which was simultaneously important, interesting, ignored and sold books. That was and is excellent.
He should have stuck to his last, and provided the intellectual foundations of a much needed new conservatism, which cannot possibly be based on pretending there are simple solutions to complex problems. Which is why understanding Reform and co is very different from joining their agenda.
I would like Goodwin to get out of selling subscriptions to pop substacks and polling, and write hard books and articles on how a conservative, rightist agenda can be turned into hard and detailed policy with proper underpinning in political philosophy. This is what academics are for.
When you earn £60k as a lecturer, and see arseholes like Jordan Peterson earning £5m a year, you can see the temptation of becoming a youtube prick or a substack wanker.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
In fairness to Macron as well, he took the great tactical advantage of the incumbent - the initiative - and used it.
Contrast with Sunak who dithered and dilly-dallied when he should have gone to the nation *much* sooner; ideally (for him) immediately.
At least Rishi didn't see his party come third as may happen to Macron's by the end of the night
Why on earth do people threaten to flounce off when a poster irritates them? It's a shame, don't do it. Leon can be a bit irritating, particularly in his repetitiveness, but he is also very entertaining and quite amusing at times- if you don't like it, don't read it.
A confession - there's a fair few posters on here who I find deeply irritating, and not usually for political reasons; it's the pompous, know-it-all, I could do a better job than any politician, public official or journalist type of posters who get on my nerves. But guess what? I just ignore them.
The so called far right surge in Europe never really happened.
In the EU elections, it was really only RN and AfD, who seem to hate each other, and now the RN are coming THIRD in these assembly elections.
Farage meanwhile (who I would necessarily call far right but some of the weird creatures floating about Refuk certainly are) only managed 4 seats.
It has happened, at the last election in France RN had under 20 seats, now they're going to have over 200. It's not a majority but it's a huge boost to the party and if the hard left/centre left alliance continues to ignore immigration reform then that 40% ceiling will begin to approach 50% as we get to 2026 and the presidential election.
Exit poll said 134-152. So far they have 131 with 123 seats to go.
150 or so seems about right. That’s up from 89. It’s the Macronists who are the losers.
Yes my suspicion is that its going to be Trots First, Le Pen Second and Macrons lot third but not far off an equal three way split, virtually impossible to form a stable government with macrons lot forced into a shaky coalition with PM Menchelon and LePens lot eating popcorn on the other side.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
In fairness to Macron as well, he took the great tactical advantage of the incumbent - the initiative - and used it.
Contrast with Sunak who dithered and dilly-dallied when he should have gone to the nation *much* sooner; ideally (for him) immediately.
At least Rishi didn't see his party come third as may happen to Macron's by the end of the night
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
So are you saying the French people actually wanted to vote for Le Pen but somehow put their ticks in the centrist/left box instead?
Why on earth do people threaten to flounce off when a poster irritates them? It's a shame, don't do it. Leon can be a bit annoying, particularly in his repetitiveness, but he is also very entertaining and quite amusing at times- if you don't like it, don't read it. And if he insults you, he's quite happy for you to tell him to fuck off.
A confession - there's a fair few posters on here who I find deeply irritating, and not usually for political reasons; it's the pompous, know-it-all, I could do a better job than any politician, public official or journalist type of posters who get on my nerves. But guess what? I just ignore them.
Huge day in France where elites are working overtime to block Le Pen. My take? She will only get stronger & stronger until those same elites address people's concerns over mass immigration, radical Islam & the erosion of Western societies
This is the sort of loopy nonsense I mean, Goodwin has completely gone off the deep end, something is up.
He's right. Macron now has cohabitation with France's version of hard left Corbynists and Putin/Hamas supporters, that's going to make it impossible for them to address all of the issues that are driving French people into the arms of RN.
But he doesn't. NFP, as I have been patiently trying to explain all evening, is a coalition for the purposes of this election. It stood one candidate in each constituency to get as many as possible through to the second round. It agrees on virtually nothing else. More than half of the elected deputies of the NFP will not be Far Left. They'll be folk who'd be very comfortable in Starmer's Labour government.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
They didn't have to vote though.
Macron's problem is that there looks to be a large majority for various forms of Truss/Farage/Corbyn economics.
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
Huge day in France where elites are working overtime to block Le Pen. My take? She will only get stronger & stronger until those same elites address people's concerns over mass immigration, radical Islam & the erosion of Western societies
This is the Luberon, a lavishly pretty corner of touristy Provence. Peter Mayle territory. Lots of gorgeous little viillages and sweet hilltop restaurants and rolling green vineyards. Surely boring as buggery in winter but lush in July
I have arrived a day early, my friend’s house is available tomorrow. I have therefore rented a rustic 1 bed apartment with a little garden in a sweet village 2km from Mayle’s house. Price? Seventy euro….
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
I imagine there may be a few seats where anti-RN voters have voted LR.
The problem now is any Governkment formed will need to include either RN or NFP. I imagine Macron is hoping to cobble together something with NFP and LR but, as a man of the centre-right, would you prefer LR to support a minority RN government?
It might be a position you have to face here in 2029 - would you, as a Conservative, support your party doing a deal with a minority Farage-led Reform Government?
In other European countries, the established centre right party has been dominant over the insurgent populist anti-immigrant party (Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden) but in France the roles are reversed.
Huge day in France where elites are working overtime to block Le Pen. My take? She will only get stronger & stronger until those same elites address people's concerns over mass immigration, radical Islam & the erosion of Western societies
This is the sort of loopy nonsense I mean, Goodwin has completely gone off the deep end, something is up.
He's right. Macron now has cohabitation with France's version of hard left Corbynists and Putin/Hamas supporters, that's going to make it impossible for them to address all of the issues that are driving French people into the arms of RN.
It is guaranteed chaos. I hereby predict Macron will call another election as soon as he can, as this is unworkable
He can do that in a year’s time, I believe
Yes he's going to have to. A coalition with the hard left is completely ungovernable. France is running a huge budget deficit right now and spending needs to be cut, there's no majority to do that now. France needs to secure it's borders as much as we do, but now there's a bunch of pro-immigration hard leftists in the ruling coalition who will never support any measures to reduce illegal immigration, especially from Islamic countries.
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
You get my point!
Sadly it failed to gain enough traction to make significant dents in the Labour majority in 2001. I think they ended up photographing Humphrey (or perhaps a Manchurian-style stand in) with some newspapers to convince the public that they hadn't euthanased him.
Seeing as how Larry is now 17 year old, Tory fog machine may get another chance of resurrecting (ahem) the "Labour cat-killer danger!" line.
ADDENDUM
1724 > "Church in danger!" 2024 > "Cat in danger!"
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
You get my point!
Starmer has a family cat called Jojo according to Sunday Times.
Vic is worried that Larry and Jojo may not find common ground.
Jojo as Secretary of State for Mousing and Lord Larry of Downing Street to the Lords?
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
You get my point!
Starmer has a family cat called Jojo according to Sunday Times.
Vic is worried that Larry and Jojo may not find common ground.
Larry is an aggy little bastard (witness his takedown of Palmerston and fearless chasing off of a fox).
We had a cat just like that; no mucking about arch-back posturing, just get straight stuck in - even decent sized dogs would back off (“leave it Rover, he’s not worth it!).
Jojo would likely not stand much of a chance against old (and he really is quite old now) Larry.
Isn't that rather more young people voting Conservative than predicted ?
By who(m)?
By opinion polls reported here.
No details I afraid so my memory might be wrong IIRC there were predictions of below 10% for the youngest age group.
Presumably SOME predictions of below 10% for the yout?
Note that subsample(s) would logically have pretty high margin of error; meaning that 14% youth-Con vote may well be within margin(s) of error for youngest voter cohort.
Well I don't know but Sean Fear says its a swing to the right since 2019 so I'll leave it at that.
As usual, @Sean_F is overegging the Conservative side of the story.
In 2019, the 18-24 age group voted 62% Labour, 19% Conservative, 9% LD and 10% Others. The Focaldata numbers are Labour 47%, Conservative 14%, Green 14%, Reform 11% and LD 8%.
Yes, a 5% swing to Conservative from Labour but Conservatives still down among younger voters and tied with Greens who are the big winners (Reform did well). Again, look at where the Greens won or did well and see the demographic profile of the seat - may be informative.
Imagine what it would have been like on here if at 3AM Galloways Workers Party standing on a joint ticket with Labour with Galloway as leader was leading with 140, Farage was second with 135 and the Libdems third with 133 with Tories fourth on 38
NFP left-wing coalition (140) RN (incl. LR-RN) (135) Macron's coalition Ensemble (133) LR (right) (38) Ind. right (15) Ind. left (10) Ind. center (6) Regionalists (4) Misc. (1) No Result Yet (95)
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
They didn't have to vote though.
Macron's problem is that there looks to be a large majority for various forms of Truss/Farage/Corbyn economics.
One fear I have is that allowing the far left into government could lead to President Le Pen. I'm not sure how he finesses this.
This is the Luberon, a lavishly pretty corner of touristy Provence. Peter Mayle territory. Lots of gorgeous little viillages and sweet hilltop restaurants and rolling green vineyards. Surely boring as buggery in winter but lush in July
I have arrived a day early, my friend’s house is available tomorrow. I have therefore rented a rustic 1 bed apartment with a little garden in a sweet village 2km from Mayle’s house. Price? Seventy euro….
Feck, I have just been charged £100 for a soulless room in a 3* hotel in Glasgow which doesn't even have a kettle in it.
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
You get my point!
Starmer has a family cat called Jojo according to Sunday Times.
Vic is worried that Larry and Jojo may not find common ground.
Jojo as Secretary of State for Mousing and Lord Larry of Downing Street to the Lords?
Boris and Carrie had a flea ridden little dog, and they managed to make it work.
The quickest way for the Tories to revive amongst the young is a Labour government mucking up the economy.
The only times the Tories have won most under 35s in the last 50 years for example were 1979 and 2010 when that applied (plus 1983 as the SDP split the left of centre vote)
Things would look very different if the NFP hadn't moved very quickly to form an official coalition before the first round. They contain quite a disparate group of parties and it remains to be seen whether they will have any meaningful unity once the votes are counted.
Thank goodness someone else sees this. They'll have none. The only surprise is they held it together this long.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
They didn't have to vote though.
Macron's problem is that there looks to be a large majority for various forms of Truss/Farage/Corbyn economics.
One fear I have is that allowing the far left into government could lead to President Le Pen. I'm not sure how he finesses this.
If he picks apart the left-wing bloc and cobbles together a centrist coalition then it could just exacerbate the problems that led France to this position.
Huge day in France where elites are working overtime to block Le Pen. My take? She will only get stronger & stronger until those same elites address people's concerns over mass immigration, radical Islam & the erosion of Western societies
This is the sort of loopy nonsense I mean, Goodwin has completely gone off the deep end, something is up.
He's right. Macron now has cohabitation with France's version of hard left Corbynists and Putin/Hamas supporters, that's going to make it impossible for them to address all of the issues that are driving French people into the arms of RN.
But he doesn't. NFP, as I have been patiently trying to explain all evening, is a coalition for the purposes of this election. It stood one candidate in each constituency to get as many as possible through to the second round. It agrees on virtually nothing else. More than half of the elected deputies of the NFP will not be Far Left. They'll be folk who'd be very comfortable in Starmer's Labour government.
But there's not going to be enough of them for a majority. He will be relying on the hard leftists to pass legislation or the hodge podge of minority parties and rump of LRs who hate him more than they hate Le Pen.
If SKS had any sense, with this massive majority he would immediately scrap the stupid triple lock. But he won't.
No, he's backed into a corner there. Extend NI to all income - that would raise enough to cover the cost of the triple lock for a few years.
Reducing the 2.5% element to 0.5% might be a possibility but smacks of underhandedness.
I can just see NI being extended to all income for future oldies but present oldies being exempted.
Too complex. And what's the logic? Phase it in over 5 years maybe, alongside the triple lock.
Not logic but personal fear that I'm going to get financially hit multiple ways while others get protected.
I'm already assuming that my state pension age will be put back a year which is the equivalent of a £11k hit.
Now I don't mind too much if all future earnings come under NI but I really don't want NI to be put on any income from my pension fund that I've already saved as that would be a few tens of thousands more.
You've personally saved it from income that you didn't pay NI on. The logic for not taxing pensions savings on the way in is that they are taxed as income on the way out - true for ICT but NI is an omission.
I understand that from a personal perspective it's currently it's unfair that working people pay higher rates of tax on their income than those not working. I would be hit by NI on pensions too btw.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
They didn't have to vote though.
Macron's problem is that there looks to be a large majority for various forms of Truss/Farage/Corbyn economics.
LR and the Macronists and independent right and centre maybe reach 230 or so. My guess is a PM from that grouping would at least get some part of the left to abstain on a confidence vote, but they won’t achieve anything.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
But it isn't the far left block of Melenchon!!!
It is, Melenchon leads it and is as bad as Corbyn and even more economically illiterate and anti Israel and even more pro Putin than Le Pen
This is the Luberon, a lavishly pretty corner of touristy Provence. Peter Mayle territory. Lots of gorgeous little viillages and sweet hilltop restaurants and rolling green vineyards. Surely boring as buggery in winter but lush in July
I have arrived a day early, my friend’s house is available tomorrow. I have therefore rented a rustic 1 bed apartment with a little garden in a sweet village 2km from Mayle’s house. Price? Seventy euro….
Feck, I have just been charged £100 for a soulless room in a 3* hotel in Glasgow which doesn't even have a kettle in it.
I detest that modern trend of no tea and coffee making facilities in the room in some 'hotels' making you go down to the achingly hip "communal area" to get a cup of tea. Bugger OFF. Give me my shortbread and nescafe sachets.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
Comments
I'll await more conclusive age data.
These seat numbers in France. Do they include the seats already won in the first round by the Fash RN? Seats like, ooh, random example - ROGER’s constituency in Villefranche?
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1809975751350866201
This is the sort of loopy nonsense I mean, Goodwin has completely gone off the deep end, something is up.
Which Villefranche?
I remember the age of Conservative voters being raised 15-20 years ago but then it was laughed at and said people turn more conservative with age
Tough nut to crack
Wonder what the numbers are on % net support dying by year. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s worth a percentage point or two by 2029 !!
RN (incl. LR-RN) (133)
NFP left-wing coalition (132)
Macron's coalition Ensemble (128)
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/07/07/2024-french-election-results-chart-and-map-of-second-round-winners_6676976_8.html
This being France, i like to think that;’s because there are weird social rules, like NO ONE wears salmon pink shorts in Valence before July, and all mosquitoes stop biting at 9pm or the cicadas will cluck in disapproval
SKS cutting that (abandoning the triple lock would be a political “cut”) would cause MPs to defect to more left wing parties.
They are not "blocking" Le Pen. The French people voted in a democratic election and they've voted against the far right.
Goodwin as a Trump fan hates democracy and would be much more comfortable in a dictatorship.
In Toryland, including those excluded like Gauke, there are at least these factions:
Close to Labour (as it currently is)
Close to LD
Old style One Nation
Small state libertarians
Reform style large state authoritarians.
At this point if a Braverman type becomes leader I am off for good. But if a Tugendhat did a Starmer style purge of the extremes I would start looking again. I doubt if this is just me.
Meanwhile Farages lot have just gone from 0 to 5.
He can do that in a year’s time, I believe
Cons need to recruit around a million voters just to stand still.
If attack line spin means pointing out that Joe is doolally: I don't identify as anything in particular in the UK but USA wise I am sure as fuck a Democrat, despite only visiting the country for about a month about every 3,years. I firmly believe that Biden is demented and that the interests of his party the USA and the world absolutely require recognition of that fact. Do you call that,bilge and if so why?
NFP left-wing coalition (134)
RN (incl. LR-RN) (134)
Macron's coalition Ensemble (129)
Contrast with Sunak who dithered and dilly-dallied when he should have gone to the nation *much* sooner; ideally (for him) immediately.
The truth is no one but us political geeks will be giving politics any real thought for the next three months (unless a black swan event occurs).
The question I'd be putting to ALL political people is how do we increase turnout? How do we get people to re-engage with the political process and not say "they're all the same"?
Believe that Dick Whittington had similar policy . . . but substituting nice tasty Wapping warf rats . . .
Vic is worried that Larry and Jojo may not find common ground.
A confession - there's a fair few posters on here who I find deeply irritating, and not usually for political reasons; it's the pompous, know-it-all, I could do a better job than any politician, public official or journalist type of posters who get on my nerves.
But guess what? I just ignore them.
I'm already assuming that my state pension age will be put back a year which is the equivalent of a £11k hit.
Now I don't mind too much if all future earnings come under NI but I really don't want NI to be put on any income from my pension fund that I've already saved as that would be a few tens of thousands more.
https://order-order.com/2024/07/07/braverman-says-parts-of-tory-party-still-want-more-of-the-same/
NFP, as I have been patiently trying to explain all evening, is a coalition for the purposes of this election.
It stood one candidate in each constituency to get as many as possible through to the second round.
It agrees on virtually nothing else. More than half of the elected deputies of the NFP will not be Far Left. They'll be folk who'd be very comfortable in Starmer's Labour government.
Macron's problem is that there looks to be a large majority for various forms of Truss/Farage/Corbyn economics.
One point: France can be weirdly cheap
This is the Luberon, a lavishly pretty corner of touristy Provence. Peter Mayle territory. Lots of gorgeous little viillages and sweet hilltop restaurants and rolling green vineyards. Surely boring as buggery in winter but lush in July
I have arrived a day early, my friend’s house is available tomorrow. I have therefore rented a rustic 1 bed apartment with a little garden in a sweet village 2km from Mayle’s house. Price? Seventy euro….
The problem now is any Governkment formed will need to include either RN or NFP. I imagine Macron is hoping to cobble together something with NFP and LR but, as a man of the centre-right, would you prefer LR to support a minority RN government?
It might be a position you have to face here in 2029 - would you, as a Conservative, support your party doing a deal with a minority Farage-led Reform Government?
In other European countries, the established centre right party has been dominant over the insurgent populist anti-immigrant party (Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden) but in France the roles are reversed.
Not sure what it would look like but doubling the deposit would do the job
ADDENDUM
1724 > "Church in danger!"
2024 > "Cat in danger!"
We had a cat just like that; no mucking about arch-back posturing, just get straight stuck in - even decent sized dogs would back off (“leave it Rover, he’s not worth it!).
Jojo would likely not stand much of a chance against old (and he really is quite old now) Larry.
NFP left-wing coalition (140)
RN (incl. LR-RN) (135)
Macron's coalition Ensemble (133)
LR (right) (38)
Ind. right (15)
Ind. left (10)
Ind. center (6)
Regionalists (4)
Misc. (1)
No Result Yet (95)
95 seats to go. Almost all around Paris.
NFP 140 RN 135 Macron 133.
Populism Updates
@PopulismUpdates
Attendees at the National Rally's election watch party react to results of the exit poll (via
@2022Elections)
https://x.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1810033278461878569
The only times the Tories have won most under 35s in the last 50 years for example were 1979 and 2010 when that applied (plus 1983 as the SDP split the left of centre vote)
They'll have none. The only surprise is they held it together this long.
I understand that from a personal perspective it's currently it's unfair that working people pay higher rates of tax on their income than those not working. I would be hit by NI on pensions too btw.
https://twitter.com/IpsosFrance/status/1810052453028548950