Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
So are you saying the French people actually wanted to vote for Le Pen but somehow put their ticks in the centrist/left box instead?
The top and bottom is, if a party that is seen as effectively blacklisted by every other party such is its extremity, yet it still gets the kind of vote it got then there are some serious issues of public concern they are tapping into. Beyond those who cast a vote for it how many within France may also share those concerns but didnt feel they could vote for the FN. Add them up its potentially a sizeable slice of the French populous.
This win for those opposed to the FN will not address those concerns, rather they may even try to bury them as if they dont exist. So guess what, those concerns will grow.
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
You get my point!
Sadly it failed to gain enough traction to make significant dents in the Labour majority in 2001. I think they ended up photographing Humphrey (or perhaps a Manchurian-style stand in) with some newspapers to convince the public that they hadn't euthanased him.
Seeing as how Larry is now 17 year old, Tory fog machine may get another chance of resurrecting (ahem) the "Labour cat-killer danger!" line.
ADDENDUM
1724 > "Church in danger!" 2024 > "Cat in danger!"
From the land of "People in danger of an average of two mass shootings (defined as 4 or more fatalities) every day of the year." Amusing.
OT. My ex PA sent me some photos of her latest production (she lives and works in Hollywood) and next to her in one of the photos is a familiar figure. 'What' I texted back 'are you doing with Madam Vice President standing next to you!'. 'She's a neighbour and a friend' she replied......
This was about six months ago and though we speak quite often I haven't thought about it since. However I've just read that MVP's in with a good chance of taking over. Wouldn't that be fun.....
Crossover klaxon! 95 seats to go. Almost all around Paris. NFP 140 RN 135 Macron 133.
Likelihood of RN winning many more seats looks slim, seeing as how only a dozen or so of the remaining seats still outstanding are outside the Paris region.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
I imagine there may be a few seats where anti-RN voters have voted LR.
The problem now is any Governkment formed will need to include either RN or NFP. I imagine Macron is hoping to cobble together something with NFP and LR but, as a man of the centre-right, would you prefer LR to support a minority RN government?
It might be a position you have to face here in 2029 - would you, as a Conservative, support your party doing a deal with a minority Farage-led Reform Government?
In other European countries, the established centre right party has been dominant over the insurgent populist anti-immigrant party (Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden) but in France the roles are reversed.
I would vote for Le Pen over Melenchon he is that awful if I was French. I would prefer an LR and Ensemble centre to centre right government but it lacks the numbers.
In Italy of course the populist right party of Meloni leads a government with the centre right Forza Italia.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
So are you saying the French people actually wanted to vote for Le Pen but somehow put their ticks in the centrist/left box instead?
The top and bottom is, if a party that is seen as effectively blacklisted by every other party such is its extremity, yet it still gets the kind of vote it got then there are some serious issues of public concern they are tapping into. Beyond those who cast a vote for it how many within France may also share those concerns but didnt feel they could vote for the FN. Add them up its potentially a sizeable slice of the French populous.
This win for those opposed to the FN will not address those concerns, rather they may even try to bury them as if they dont exist. So guess what, those concerns will grow.
The fact the far right is extreme is neither here nor there, I am objecting to the idea they've somehow been "blocked".
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
I imagine there may be a few seats where anti-RN voters have voted LR.
The problem now is any Governkment formed will need to include either RN or NFP. I imagine Macron is hoping to cobble together something with NFP and LR but, as a man of the centre-right, would you prefer LR to support a minority RN government?
It might be a position you have to face here in 2029 - would you, as a Conservative, support your party doing a deal with a minority Farage-led Reform Government?
In other European countries, the established centre right party has been dominant over the insurgent populist anti-immigrant party (Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden) but in France the roles are reversed.
I would vote for Le Pen over Melenchon he is that awful if I was French. I would prefer an LR and Ensemble centre to centre right government but it lacks the numbers
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
They didn't have to vote though.
Macron's problem is that there looks to be a large majority for various forms of Truss/Farage/Corbyn economics.
LR and the Macronists and independent right and centre maybe reach 230 or so. My guess is a PM from that grouping would at least get some part of the left to abstain on a confidence vote, but they won’t achieve anything.
I don't see how LR goes into a coalition, they absolutely hate Macron. They'd rather let Macron do a deal with the hard left and drive centrist voters back to LR for the presidential election.
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
You get my point!
Sadly it failed to gain enough traction to make significant dents in the Labour majority in 2001. I think they ended up photographing Humphrey (or perhaps a Manchurian-style stand in) with some newspapers to convince the public that they hadn't euthanased him.
Seeing as how Larry is now 17 year old, Tory fog machine may get another chance of resurrecting (ahem) the "Labour cat-killer danger!" line.
ADDENDUM
1724 > "Church in danger!" 2024 > "Cat in danger!"
From the land of "People in danger of an average of two mass shootings (defined as 4 or more fatalities) every day of the year." Amusing.
That's thanks to your rightwing American friends, don't you know?
Take two aspirins and go soak your head. AND try NOT to kick the cat.
This is the Luberon, a lavishly pretty corner of touristy Provence. Peter Mayle territory. Lots of gorgeous little viillages and sweet hilltop restaurants and rolling green vineyards. Surely boring as buggery in winter but lush in July
I have arrived a day early, my friend’s house is available tomorrow. I have therefore rented a rustic 1 bed apartment with a little garden in a sweet village 2km from Mayle’s house. Price? Seventy euro….
Feck, I have just been charged £100 for a soulless room in a 3* hotel in Glasgow which doesn't even have a kettle in it.
I detest that modern trend of no tea and coffee making facilities in the room in some 'hotels' making you go down to the achingly hip "communal area" to get a cup of tea. Bugger OFF. Give me my shortbread and nescafe sachets.
I once had a €30 hotel room in Tarifa (ferry cancelled due to weather) which didn't even have a drinking vessel. Not even a plastic cup. Had to go and ask at reception.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
They didn't have to vote though.
Macron's problem is that there looks to be a large majority for various forms of Truss/Farage/Corbyn economics.
One fear I have is that allowing the far left into government could lead to President Le Pen. I'm not sure how he finesses this.
Indeed, Le Pen got 65% to 35% for Melenchon in an April 2024 French poll, while Le Pen only beat Attal 53% to 47% and Philippe 51% to 49%
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
So are you saying the French people actually wanted to vote for Le Pen but somehow put their ticks in the centrist/left box instead?
The top and bottom is, if a party that is seen as effectively blacklisted by every other party such is its extremity, yet it still gets the kind of vote it got then there are some serious issues of public concern they are tapping into. Beyond those who cast a vote for it how many within France may also share those concerns but didnt feel they could vote for the FN. Add them up its potentially a sizeable slice of the French populous.
This win for those opposed to the FN will not address those concerns, rather they may even try to bury them as if they dont exist. So guess what, those concerns will grow.
The fact the far right is extreme is neither here nor there, I am objecting to the idea they've somehow been "blocked".
Well in a way they have in that pretty much every other political faction teamed to stop them rather than perhaps trusting to the French people to make free choice between a full slate of candidates. Im sure the French are just as capable of tactical voting and I suspect they would have done the job.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
I imagine there may be a few seats where anti-RN voters have voted LR.
The problem now is any Governkment formed will need to include either RN or NFP. I imagine Macron is hoping to cobble together something with NFP and LR but, as a man of the centre-right, would you prefer LR to support a minority RN government?
It might be a position you have to face here in 2029 - would you, as a Conservative, support your party doing a deal with a minority Farage-led Reform Government?
In other European countries, the established centre right party has been dominant over the insurgent populist anti-immigrant party (Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden) but in France the roles are reversed.
I would vote for Le Pen over Melenchon he is that awful if I was French. I would prefer an LR and Ensemble centre to centre right government but it lacks the numbers.
In Italy of course the populist right party of Meloni leads a government with the centre right Forza Italia.
"...if I were French". Didn't they teach you anything at grammar school?
If France had only one round and it was FPTP then RN would have a huge majority . It’s all ifs and buts . French voters vote according to the system they have . A French political commentator makes a good point . The first round was a referendum on Macron , the second round voters mobilized to stop RN .
This is the Luberon, a lavishly pretty corner of touristy Provence. Peter Mayle territory. Lots of gorgeous little viillages and sweet hilltop restaurants and rolling green vineyards. Surely boring as buggery in winter but lush in July
I have arrived a day early, my friend’s house is available tomorrow. I have therefore rented a rustic 1 bed apartment with a little garden in a sweet village 2km from Mayle’s house. Price? Seventy euro….
Feck, I have just been charged £100 for a soulless room in a 3* hotel in Glasgow which doesn't even have a kettle in it.
I detest that modern trend of no tea and coffee making facilities in the room in some 'hotels' making you go down to the achingly hip "communal area" to get a cup of tea. Bugger OFF. Give me my shortbread and nescafe sachets.
I once had a €30 hotel room in Tarifa (ferry cancelled due to weather) which didn't even have a drinking vessel. Not even a plastic cup. Had to go and ask at reception.
Ugh. If anything is going to ensure the ascendancy of the hard right, that's it.
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
You get my point!
Starmer has a family cat called Jojo according to Sunday Times.
Vic is worried that Larry and Jojo may not find common ground.
Larry is going to live on a lovely farm in the country. Apparently.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
So are you saying the French people actually wanted to vote for Le Pen but somehow put their ticks in the centrist/left box instead?
The top and bottom is, if a party that is seen as effectively blacklisted by every other party such is its extremity, yet it still gets the kind of vote it got then there are some serious issues of public concern they are tapping into. Beyond those who cast a vote for it how many within France may also share those concerns but didnt feel they could vote for the FN. Add them up its potentially a sizeable slice of the French populous.
This win for those opposed to the FN will not address those concerns, rather they may even try to bury them as if they dont exist. So guess what, those concerns will grow.
The fact the far right is extreme is neither here nor there, I am objecting to the idea they've somehow been "blocked".
Well in a way they have in that pretty much every other political faction teamed to stop them rather than perhaps trusting to the French people to make free choice between a full slate of candidates. Im sure the French are just as capable of tactical voting and I suspect they would have done the job.
If you wanted to vote for Le Pen's party, you either could or you couldn't. Which is it?
Surveyed the 65 most Muslim constituencies in the UK (i.e. 10% of the total electorate), per Henry Jackson society.
- Average Labour vote share drop across the 65 constituencies is 16.5% - That is Labour dropped 1.65% national vote share in these places (and given an overall gain of 1.6% gained 3.25% everywhere else) - Only gained vote share in 1/65 constituencies: Pendle & Clitheroe - Con hold in Keighley probably due to this, though didn't prevent Labour gaining seats such as Wycombe, Burnley, Peterborough despite their reduced vote share - Splitting further by 13 seat groupings average vote share loss was: 1-13 most Muslim, -32.2% (including 3 seats losses); seats 14-26, -18.5% (including Ashworth and Streeting); seats 27-39, -14.1% (including Starmer); seats 40-52, -9.4%; seats 53-65, -8.5%.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
But it isn't the far left block of Melenchon!!!
It is, Melenchon leads it and is as bad as Corbyn and even more economically illiterate and anti Israel and even more pro Putin than Le Pen
But Melenchon does not lead it. They have no leader. Every single Party in the coalition, apart from LFI agrees. They don't know who the leader is. But it isn't Melenchon.
When the far right loses, we get lectures telling us that the new government should be far right anyway, because voter concerns. That's not how elections work for other parties. You fail, you lose.
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
You get my point!
Sadly it failed to gain enough traction to make significant dents in the Labour majority in 2001. I think they ended up photographing Humphrey (or perhaps a Manchurian-style stand in) with some newspapers to convince the public that they hadn't euthanased him.
Seeing as how Larry is now 17 year old, Tory fog machine may get another chance of resurrecting (ahem) the "Labour cat-killer danger!" line.
ADDENDUM
1724 > "Church in danger!" 2024 > "Cat in danger!"
From the land of "People in danger of an average of two mass shootings (defined as 4 or more fatalities) every day of the year." Amusing.
That's thanks to your rightwing American friends, don't you know?
Take two aspirins and go soak your head. AND try NOT to kick the cat.
You are trying too hard and not winning here. I said two posts back that I am in US terms firmly Dem (and firmly pro gun control).
So, Goodwin reckons the 'elites' have conspired against Le Pen today. That means, presumably, he thinks Melenchon and the other leftists and greens voting for the left bloc are part of this 'elite' conspiring to stop the march of the far right.
For an academic, he shows a pretty poor grasp of what an 'elite' is. It's not just anybody who doesn't agree with him, as he seems to think.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
I imagine there may be a few seats where anti-RN voters have voted LR.
The problem now is any Governkment formed will need to include either RN or NFP. I imagine Macron is hoping to cobble together something with NFP and LR but, as a man of the centre-right, would you prefer LR to support a minority RN government?
It might be a position you have to face here in 2029 - would you, as a Conservative, support your party doing a deal with a minority Farage-led Reform Government?
In other European countries, the established centre right party has been dominant over the insurgent populist anti-immigrant party (Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden) but in France the roles are reversed.
I would vote for Le Pen over Melenchon he is that awful if I was French. I would prefer an LR and Ensemble centre to centre right government but it lacks the numbers.
In Italy of course the populist right party of Meloni leads a government with the centre right Forza Italia.
"...if I were French". Didn't they teach you anything at grammar school?
I am part French by heritage so grammatically it was not an unrealistic statement and I was could still be used and I went to public school not grammar school
When the far right loses, we get lectures telling us that the new government should be far right anyway, because voter concerns. That's not how elections work for other parties. You fail, you lose.
Is this a reference to Tony Blair's advice to Starmer?
I do find it odd that the French can count the votes of vast underpopulated districts like the Corrèze (1st district François HOLLANDE btw) faster than all the citiy centre districts.
When the far right loses, we get lectures telling us that the new government should be far right anyway, because voter concerns. That's not how elections work for other parties. You fail, you lose.
Is this a reference to Tony Blair's advice to Starmer?
The sneaking regarders of global ethnic sectarianism, who whine when they lose that their policies should still win, or else.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
But it isn't the far left block of Melenchon!!!
It is, Melenchon leads it and is as bad as Corbyn and even more economically illiterate and anti Israel and even more pro Putin than Le Pen
But Melenchon does not lead it. They have no leader. Every single Party in the coalition, apart from LFI agrees. They don't know who the leader is. But it isn't Melenchon.
It is Melenchon, his LFI party is by far the biggest in it
Surveyed the 65 most Muslim constituencies in the UK (i.e. 10% of the total electorate), per Henry Jackson society.
- Average Labour vote share drop across the 65 constituencies is 16.5% - That is Labour dropped 1.65% national vote share in these places (and given an overall gain of 1.6% gained 3.25% everywhere else) - Only gained vote share in 1/65 constituencies: Pendle & Clitheroe - Con hold in Keighley probably due to this, though didn't prevent Labour gaining seats such as Wycombe, Burnley, Peterborough despite their reduced vote share - Splitting further by 13 seat groupings average vote share loss was: 1-13 most Muslim, -32.2% (including 3 seats losses); seats 14-26, -18.5% (including Ashworth and Streeting); seats 27-39, -14.1% (including Starmer); seats 40-52, -9.4%; seats 53-65, -8.5%.
Keighley. This and the closure of the household waste recycling centre in Ilkley.
Last time I mention it. But I did suggest it as a potential Tory hold for these two reasons.
The left is up about 40 seats on 2022. RN is up 55. The Macronists down about 90. This a very Pyrrhic victory for Macron.
Overall, parties of the Right look set to have a plurality in the Assembly. If indeed, LR hate Macron, and LFI hate Macron, I don’t see where a majority can be found.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
I do find it odd that the French can count the votes of vast underpopulated districts like the Corrèze (1st district François HOLLANDE btw) faster than all the citiy centre districts.
Apparently voting ends 2 hours later in cities.
This seems very odd, if anything rural areas should finish later as longer travelling distance to polling station.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
I imagine there may be a few seats where anti-RN voters have voted LR.
The problem now is any Governkment formed will need to include either RN or NFP. I imagine Macron is hoping to cobble together something with NFP and LR but, as a man of the centre-right, would you prefer LR to support a minority RN government?
It might be a position you have to face here in 2029 - would you, as a Conservative, support your party doing a deal with a minority Farage-led Reform Government?
In other European countries, the established centre right party has been dominant over the insurgent populist anti-immigrant party (Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden) but in France the roles are reversed.
I would vote for Le Pen over Melenchon he is that awful if I was French. I would prefer an LR and Ensemble centre to centre right government but it lacks the numbers.
In Italy of course the populist right party of Meloni leads a government with the centre right Forza Italia.
"...if I were French". Didn't they teach you anything at grammar school?
I am part French by heritage so grammatically it was not an unrealistic statement and I was could still be used and I went to public school not grammar school
Well, it's just my subjunctive opinion that you're wrong there; your parents should ask for their money back.
Surveyed the 65 most Muslim constituencies in the UK (i.e. 10% of the total electorate), per Henry Jackson society.
- Average Labour vote share drop across the 65 constituencies is 16.5% - That is Labour dropped 1.65% national vote share in these places (and given an overall gain of 1.6% gained 3.25% everywhere else) - Only gained vote share in 1/65 constituencies: Pendle & Clitheroe - Con hold in Keighley probably due to this, though didn't prevent Labour gaining seats such as Wycombe, Burnley, Peterborough despite their reduced vote share - Splitting further by 13 seat groupings average vote share loss was: 1-13 most Muslim, -32.2% (including 3 seats losses); seats 14-26, -18.5% (including Ashworth and Streeting); seats 27-39, -14.1% (including Starmer); seats 40-52, -9.4%; seats 53-65, -8.5%.
Did you know that Henry "Scoop" Jackson, was a Democratic US Senator from Washington State from 1953-83?
Happen to have his copy (embossed with his name) of "Senate Procedure: Precedents and Practices" (1981) which I obtained years ago, from a used bookstore in Jackson's home town of Everett WA.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
They didn't have to vote though.
Macron's problem is that there looks to be a large majority for various forms of Truss/Farage/Corbyn economics.
LR and the Macronists and independent right and centre maybe reach 230 or so. My guess is a PM from that grouping would at least get some part of the left to abstain on a confidence vote, but they won’t achieve anything.
I don't see how LR goes into a coalition, they absolutely hate Macron. They'd rather let Macron do a deal with the hard left and drive centrist voters back to LR for the presidential election.
Indeed, the biggest winners from tonight may be LR ironically, RN have proved they cannot win a majority for the right. Macron's party is no longer largest in France and if they do a deal with Melenchon that will send centrists and centre right voters back to LR in big numbers
I do find it odd that the French can count the votes of vast underpopulated districts like the Corrèze (1st district François HOLLANDE btw) faster than all the citiy centre districts.
Apparently voting ends 2 hours later in cities.
This seems very odd, if anything rural areas should finish later as longer travelling distance to polling station.
I do find it odd that the French can count the votes of vast underpopulated districts like the Corrèze (1st district François HOLLANDE btw) faster than all the citiy centre districts.
Because. They count by commune. Many of which have only a few dozen votes. They don't carry them all to a central location then begin counting once they've all arrived. And the cities have polls open two hours longer. So they get a head start.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
So many on here don't seem to WANT TO understand that.
Isn't claiming Melenchon is the leader a bit like claiming Corbyn is. I suppose if you vote all of the Lib Dems, Greens, Labour, SNP etc together he COULD lead it but I highly doubt he would.
I do find it odd that the French can count the votes of vast underpopulated districts like the Corrèze (1st district François HOLLANDE btw) faster than all the citiy centre districts.
They count at the polling stations, don't they? Which cuts out a step we have in the UK.
And if the district is made of lots of tiddly little villages, each one can presumably count their tiddly pile of ballots fairly quickly, working in parallel.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
So are you saying the French people actually wanted to vote for Le Pen but somehow put their ticks in the centrist/left box instead?
The top and bottom is, if a party that is seen as effectively blacklisted by every other party such is its extremity, yet it still gets the kind of vote it got then there are some serious issues of public concern they are tapping into. Beyond those who cast a vote for it how many within France may also share those concerns but didnt feel they could vote for the FN. Add them up its potentially a sizeable slice of the French populous.
This win for those opposed to the FN will not address those concerns, rather they may even try to bury them as if they dont exist. So guess what, those concerns will grow.
The fact the far right is extreme is neither here nor there, I am objecting to the idea they've somehow been "blocked".
Well in a way they have in that pretty much every other political faction teamed to stop them rather than perhaps trusting to the French people to make free choice between a full slate of candidates. Im sure the French are just as capable of tactical voting and I suspect they would have done the job.
If you wanted to vote for Le Pen's party, you either could or you couldn't. Which is it?
Correct, you could, you could also for the party of your choice rather than being left with a reduced list of candidates. The FN wasnt going to form a government because a) they probably wouldnt have had the numbers based on the results we have tonight and b) no one would go into coalition with them anyway.
I would tend to trust the French populous to know where its at. Resentment and victim status is a powerful sustaining force for parties such as FN, dont give them it. They now have an excuse about why they lost, which will just be another reason for their support to cosolidate. The way to beat them is take away their arguments.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
So are you saying the French people actually wanted to vote for Le Pen but somehow put their ticks in the centrist/left box instead?
The top and bottom is, if a party that is seen as effectively blacklisted by every other party such is its extremity, yet it still gets the kind of vote it got then there are some serious issues of public concern they are tapping into. Beyond those who cast a vote for it how many within France may also share those concerns but didnt feel they could vote for the FN. Add them up its potentially a sizeable slice of the French populous.
This win for those opposed to the FN will not address those concerns, rather they may even try to bury them as if they dont exist. So guess what, those concerns will grow.
The fact the far right is extreme is neither here nor there, I am objecting to the idea they've somehow been "blocked".
Well in a way they have in that pretty much every other political faction teamed to stop them rather than perhaps trusting to the French people to make free choice between a full slate of candidates. Im sure the French are just as capable of tactical voting and I suspect they would have done the job.
If you wanted to vote for Le Pen's party, you either could or you couldn't. Which is it?
Correct, you could, you could also for the party of your choice rather than being left with a reduced list of candidates. The FN wasnt going to form a government because a) they probably wouldnt have had the numbers based on the results we have tonight and b) no one would go into coalition with them anyway.
I would tend to trust the French populous to know where its at. Resentment and victim status is a powerful sustaining force for parties such as FN, dont give them it. They now have an excuse about why they lost, which will just be another reason for their support to cosolidate. The way to beat them is take away their arguments.
But as I said, you're a far right supporter so instead you choose to vote for a leftist? Your logic doesn't make sense.
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
You get my point!
Sadly it failed to gain enough traction to make significant dents in the Labour majority in 2001. I think they ended up photographing Humphrey (or perhaps a Manchurian-style stand in) with some newspapers to convince the public that they hadn't euthanased him.
Seeing as how Larry is now 17 year old, Tory fog machine may get another chance of resurrecting (ahem) the "Labour cat-killer danger!" line.
ADDENDUM
1724 > "Church in danger!" 2024 > "Cat in danger!"
From the land of "People in danger of an average of two mass shootings (defined as 4 or more fatalities) every day of the year." Amusing.
That's thanks to your rightwing American friends, don't you know?
Take two aspirins and go soak your head. AND try NOT to kick the cat.
You are trying too hard and not winning here. I said two posts back that I am in US terms firmly Dem (and firmly pro gun control).
My apology on that point. Missed it due to you being such a humorless a-hole tonight.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
I do find it odd that the French can count the votes of vast underpopulated districts like the Corrèze (1st district François HOLLANDE btw) faster than all the citiy centre districts.
Because. They count by commune. Many of which have only a few dozen votes. They don't carry them all to a central location then begin counting once they've all arrived. And the cities have polls open two hours longer. So they get a head start.
It seems an obvious thing we could do here. Every polling station could count their votes and phone the counts back to Returning Officer just after 10pm. The paper votes could be double-checked the next day. If the result appears close, declare a recount and do it the next day with the paper ballots.
I do find it odd that the French can count the votes of vast underpopulated districts like the Corrèze (1st district François HOLLANDE btw) faster than all the citiy centre districts.
Apparently voting ends 2 hours later in cities.
This seems very odd, if anything rural areas should finish later as longer travelling distance to polling station.
There’s no problem in rural areas . And most rural communes are very small in size and have a higher proportion of polling places than urban areas hence the longer voting hours .
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
So are you saying the French people actually wanted to vote for Le Pen but somehow put their ticks in the centrist/left box instead?
The top and bottom is, if a party that is seen as effectively blacklisted by every other party such is its extremity, yet it still gets the kind of vote it got then there are some serious issues of public concern they are tapping into. Beyond those who cast a vote for it how many within France may also share those concerns but didnt feel they could vote for the FN. Add them up its potentially a sizeable slice of the French populous.
This win for those opposed to the FN will not address those concerns, rather they may even try to bury them as if they dont exist. So guess what, those concerns will grow.
The fact the far right is extreme is neither here nor there, I am objecting to the idea they've somehow been "blocked".
Well in a way they have in that pretty much every other political faction teamed to stop them rather than perhaps trusting to the French people to make free choice between a full slate of candidates. Im sure the French are just as capable of tactical voting and I suspect they would have done the job.
If you wanted to vote for Le Pen's party, you either could or you couldn't. Which is it?
Correct, you could, you could also for the party of your choice rather than being left with a reduced list of candidates. The FN wasnt going to form a government because a) they probably wouldnt have had the numbers based on the results we have tonight and b) no one would go into coalition with them anyway.
I would tend to trust the French populous to know where its at. Resentment and victim status is a powerful sustaining force for parties such as FN, dont give them it. They now have an excuse about why they lost, which will just be another reason for their support to cosolidate. The way to beat them is take away their arguments.
They lost because most people wanted something different. This isn't some kind of Ulster unionist gerrymandering, it was a straight choice.
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
You get my point!
Sadly it failed to gain enough traction to make significant dents in the Labour majority in 2001. I think they ended up photographing Humphrey (or perhaps a Manchurian-style stand in) with some newspapers to convince the public that they hadn't euthanased him.
Seeing as how Larry is now 17 year old, Tory fog machine may get another chance of resurrecting (ahem) the "Labour cat-killer danger!" line.
ADDENDUM
1724 > "Church in danger!" 2024 > "Cat in danger!"
From the land of "People in danger of an average of two mass shootings (defined as 4 or more fatalities) every day of the year." Amusing.
That's thanks to your rightwing American friends, don't you know?
Take two aspirins and go soak your head. AND try NOT to kick the cat.
You are trying too hard and not winning here. I said two posts back that I am in US terms firmly Dem (and firmly pro gun control).
My apology on that point. Missed it due to you being such a humorless a-hole tonight.
His account seems to have been hacked by his brother Tweedledumb.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
But it isn't the far left block of Melenchon!!!
It is, Melenchon leads it and is as bad as Corbyn and even more economically illiterate and anti Israel and even more pro Putin than Le Pen
But Melenchon does not lead it. They have no leader. Every single Party in the coalition, apart from LFI agrees. They don't know who the leader is. But it isn't Melenchon.
It is Melenchon, his LFI party is by far the biggest in it
It is the biggest. But not by far. Nor even a majority. It's between a third and 40%.
I'm calling peak Le Pen tonight. Outwitted by the combined forces of Macron and the left, she won't win the next presidential election. It's the equivalent high point of that Hartlepool by-election win for Boris.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
I imagine there may be a few seats where anti-RN voters have voted LR.
The problem now is any Governkment formed will need to include either RN or NFP. I imagine Macron is hoping to cobble together something with NFP and LR but, as a man of the centre-right, would you prefer LR to support a minority RN government?
It might be a position you have to face here in 2029 - would you, as a Conservative, support your party doing a deal with a minority Farage-led Reform Government?
In other European countries, the established centre right party has been dominant over the insurgent populist anti-immigrant party (Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden) but in France the roles are reversed.
I would vote for Le Pen over Melenchon he is that awful if I was French. I would prefer an LR and Ensemble centre to centre right government but it lacks the numbers.
In Italy of course the populist right party of Meloni leads a government with the centre right Forza Italia.
"...if I were French". Didn't they teach you anything at grammar school?
I am part French by heritage so grammatically it was not an unrealistic statement and I was could still be used and I went to public school not grammar school
Well, it's just my subjunctive opinion that you're wrong there; your parents should ask for their money back.
Your truly just noted, that Larry the Cat the Chief Mouser to the Treasury, has been removed from wiki list of "Also Attending Cabinet" as part of new HMG (he was on this list when I looked 8 hours or so ago).
DOES THIS MEAN that that Keir Starmer is demoting Britain's favorite feline?
Would make better attack-line spin than the bilge PB right-wing wack-jobs been pumping since Thursday!
Humphrey the Downing Street cat (as was) was evicted from Number 10 when Blair came into power in 97 (or so the story went). Apparently centrist Labour Governments aren't animal lovers.
You get my point!
Sadly it failed to gain enough traction to make significant dents in the Labour majority in 2001. I think they ended up photographing Humphrey (or perhaps a Manchurian-style stand in) with some newspapers to convince the public that they hadn't euthanased him.
Seeing as how Larry is now 17 year old, Tory fog machine may get another chance of resurrecting (ahem) the "Labour cat-killer danger!" line.
ADDENDUM
1724 > "Church in danger!" 2024 > "Cat in danger!"
From the land of "People in danger of an average of two mass shootings (defined as 4 or more fatalities) every day of the year." Amusing.
That's thanks to your rightwing American friends, don't you know?
Take two aspirins and go soak your head. AND try NOT to kick the cat.
You are trying too hard and not winning here. I said two posts back that I am in US terms firmly Dem (and firmly pro gun control).
My apology on that point. Missed it due to you being such a humorless a-hole tonight.
Sure.
I think you possibly sound a bit funnier in your own head than comes across on the page. But you have correctly identified me as having no sense of humour, so don't pay me no nevermind.
I think you possibly sound a bit funnier in your own head than comes across on the page. But you have correctly identified me as having no sense of humour, so don't pay me no nevermind.
Glad you've finally got back posting, it took me a while to notice who you are.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Isn't claiming Melenchon is the leader a bit like claiming Corbyn is. I suppose if you vote all of the Lib Dems, Greens, Labour, SNP etc together he COULD lead it but I highly doubt he would.
So, Goodwin reckons the 'elites' have conspired against Le Pen today. That means, presumably, he thinks Melenchon and the other leftists and greens voting for the left bloc are part of this 'elite' conspiring to stop the march of the far right.
For an academic, he shows a pretty poor grasp of what an 'elite' is. It's not just anybody who doesn't agree with him, as he seems to think.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
Macron hasn't blocked anything. The French people went out and voted, they voted against Le Pen.
He did, he withdrew his candidates and told them to back Le Pen's opponent even if from the far left Corbynite Melenchon block
So are you saying the French people actually wanted to vote for Le Pen but somehow put their ticks in the centrist/left box instead?
The top and bottom is, if a party that is seen as effectively blacklisted by every other party such is its extremity, yet it still gets the kind of vote it got then there are some serious issues of public concern they are tapping into. Beyond those who cast a vote for it how many within France may also share those concerns but didnt feel they could vote for the FN. Add them up its potentially a sizeable slice of the French populous.
This win for those opposed to the FN will not address those concerns, rather they may even try to bury them as if they dont exist. So guess what, those concerns will grow.
The fact the far right is extreme is neither here nor there, I am objecting to the idea they've somehow been "blocked".
Well in a way they have in that pretty much every other political faction teamed to stop them rather than perhaps trusting to the French people to make free choice between a full slate of candidates. Im sure the French are just as capable of tactical voting and I suspect they would have done the job.
If you wanted to vote for Le Pen's party, you either could or you couldn't. Which is it?
Correct, you could, you could also for the party of your choice rather than being left with a reduced list of candidates. The FN wasnt going to form a government because a) they probably wouldnt have had the numbers based on the results we have tonight and b) no one would go into coalition with them anyway.
I would tend to trust the French populous to know where its at. Resentment and victim status is a powerful sustaining force for parties such as FN, dont give them it. They now have an excuse about why they lost, which will just be another reason for their support to cosolidate. The way to beat them is take away their arguments.
They lost because most people wanted something different. This isn't some kind of Ulster unionist gerrymandering, it was a straight choice.
They were going to make that choice anyway with a full slate of candidates. There was always enough opposition to FN to get a result as tonight has proven and they woud have no excuses, no victim status.
If SKS had any sense, with this massive majority he would immediately scrap the stupid triple lock. But he won't.
No, he's backed into a corner there. Extend NI to all income - that would raise enough to cover the cost of the triple lock for a few years.
Reducing the 2.5% element to 0.5% might be a possibility but smacks of underhandedness.
I can just see NI being extended to all income for future oldies but present oldies being exempted.
Too complex. And what's the logic? Phase it in over 5 years maybe, alongside the triple lock.
Not logic but personal fear that I'm going to get financially hit multiple ways while others get protected.
I'm already assuming that my state pension age will be put back a year which is the equivalent of a £11k hit.
Now I don't mind too much if all future earnings come under NI but I really don't want NI to be put on any income from my pension fund that I've already saved as that would be a few tens of thousands more.
It's not on state pension becvause that's how the credits are generated. And to some extent there is a link with company/private pensions through opting out, or there used to be anyway.
I'm calling peak Le Pen tonight. Outwitted by the combined forces of Macron and the left, she won't win the next presidential election. It's the equivalent high point of that Hartlepool by-election win for Boris.
Echoes of the stunt Pedro Sanchez pulled in Spain last year.
See the right on the rise (Vox in Spain, RN in France) and do well in a set of secondary elections. Then put the really stark choice before both the voters and the other political parties. Basically, if you don't want these guys to win real power, stop dicking around.
Surveyed the 65 most Muslim constituencies in the UK (i.e. 10% of the total electorate), per Henry Jackson society.
- Average Labour vote share drop across the 65 constituencies is 16.5% - That is Labour dropped 1.65% national vote share in these places (and given an overall gain of 1.6% gained 3.25% everywhere else) - Only gained vote share in 1/65 constituencies: Pendle & Clitheroe - Con hold in Keighley probably due to this, though didn't prevent Labour gaining seats such as Wycombe, Burnley, Peterborough despite their reduced vote share - Splitting further by 13 seat groupings average vote share loss was: 1-13 most Muslim, -32.2% (including 3 seats losses); seats 14-26, -18.5% (including Ashworth and Streeting); seats 27-39, -14.1% (including Starmer); seats 40-52, -9.4%; seats 53-65, -8.5%.
Keighley. This and the closure of the household waste recycling centre in Ilkley.
Last time I mention it. But I did suggest it as a potential Tory hold for these two reasons.
The LOL bit is that Labour's candidate in Keighley (lost by 1,625) was John Grogan - formerly MP for Selby (won by 10,195).
Was there no members of the Cryer family for Labour to have as a candidate ?
I'm calling peak Le Pen tonight. Outwitted by the combined forces of Macron and the left, she won't win the next presidential election. It's the equivalent high point of that Hartlepool by-election win for Boris.
If the run off is between Le Pen and a centrist, the centrist wins. If the run off is between Le Pen and Melenchon, or similar, Le Pen wins.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
No. I am simply agreeing with DixieDean and JohnO that a number of posters don't seem to understand that the NFP is a fairly wide coalition on the left including Greens and the old PS of Hollande. Melanchon certainly is part of it but only about a third of it.
Isn't claiming Melenchon is the leader a bit like claiming Corbyn is. I suppose if you vote all of the Lib Dems, Greens, Labour, SNP etc together he COULD lead it but I highly doubt he would.
Melenchon proclaimed it live on BBC
He's a big mouth, very like Nigel Farage in that respect.
BUT election blocs & parties, are NOT always led by the biggest loudmouth, Boris Johnson and Donald Trump notwithstanding.
Isn't claiming Melenchon is the leader a bit like claiming Corbyn is. I suppose if you vote all of the Lib Dems, Greens, Labour, SNP etc together he COULD lead it but I highly doubt he would.
Melenchon proclaimed it live on BBC
Just like Corbyn asserted he was the next PM. Doesn't make it so.
I'm calling peak Le Pen tonight. Outwitted by the combined forces of Macron and the left, she won't win the next presidential election. It's the equivalent high point of that Hartlepool by-election win for Boris.
Echoes of the stunt Pedro Sanchez pulled in Spain last year.
See the right on the rise (Vox in Spain, RN in France) and do well in a set of secondary elections. Then put the really stark choice before both the voters and the other political parties. Basically, if you don't want these guys to win real power, stop dicking around.
If you break it down to the individual parties, the RN are still the biggest force. At present Macron's party only has 73, the socialist party has 56 and Melenchon has 55.
I'm calling peak Le Pen tonight. Outwitted by the combined forces of Macron and the left, she won't win the next presidential election. It's the equivalent high point of that Hartlepool by-election win for Boris.
She has had a shot before and missed, no reason to believe 2027 will be any different
Isn't claiming Melenchon is the leader a bit like claiming Corbyn is. I suppose if you vote all of the Lib Dems, Greens, Labour, SNP etc together he COULD lead it but I highly doubt he would.
Melenchon proclaimed it live on BBC
There's more to someone being a leader than them saying it live on telly.
Unless, I suppose, they have an army that has taken over the studios.
Melenchon may think he is the leader, and may well be awfully miffed when the rest of the left alliance don't follow him, but that's about his delusion and nothing else.
Isn't claiming Melenchon is the leader a bit like claiming Corbyn is. I suppose if you vote all of the Lib Dems, Greens, Labour, SNP etc together he COULD lead it but I highly doubt he would.
There are no LDs in his block, the French LDs are basically Macron's party. Melenchon's block is a combination of his party and Socialists
The left is up about 40 seats on 2022. RN is up 55. The Macronists down about 90. This a very Pyrrhic victory for Macron.
Overall, parties of the Right look set to have a plurality in the Assembly. If indeed, LR hate Macron, and LFI hate Macron, I don’t see where a majority can be found.
Not sure. Macron's own party minority government had run into the sands. He held an election to determine another government he could work with that didn't include Le Pen. His gamble seems to have paid off at least to that extent. Another plus he's stopped the Le Pen momentum after her party's stunning results in the Euro elections.
There is a possibility of new left dominated government he can work with but it could be just as stalemated as his previous Ensemble government.
Overall I suspect between better than neutral to as successful as he could hope to be in the circumstances.
Edit LR don't hate Macron, and LFI don't hate Macron, at least at the voter level. I posted this analysis earlier.
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
I imagine there may be a few seats where anti-RN voters have voted LR.
The problem now is any Governkment formed will need to include either RN or NFP. I imagine Macron is hoping to cobble together something with NFP and LR but, as a man of the centre-right, would you prefer LR to support a minority RN government?
It might be a position you have to face here in 2029 - would you, as a Conservative, support your party doing a deal with a minority Farage-led Reform Government?
In other European countries, the established centre right party has been dominant over the insurgent populist anti-immigrant party (Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden) but in France the roles are reversed.
I would vote for Le Pen over Melenchon he is that awful if I was French. I would prefer an LR and Ensemble centre to centre right government but it lacks the numbers.
In Italy of course the populist right party of Meloni leads a government with the centre right Forza Italia.
"...if I were French". Didn't they teach you anything at grammar school?
I am part French by heritage so grammatically it was not an unrealistic statement and I was could still be used and I went to public school not grammar school
Well, it's just my subjunctive opinion that you're wrong there; your parents should ask for their money back.
Someone should tell Skee-Lo they need to change their lyrics "I wish I were a little bit taller, I wish I were a baller"
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
The left will hold 190-200 seats, out of 577. It’s no left wing victory.
The right will hold 200-210.
So it's no right-wing victory either.
No. No-one has won. Which is good in one way (not convinced a left or RN government is good either way) but there is no stable government and France is tremendously divided.
Isn't claiming Melenchon is the leader a bit like claiming Corbyn is. I suppose if you vote all of the Lib Dems, Greens, Labour, SNP etc together he COULD lead it but I highly doubt he would.
Melenchon proclaimed it live on BBC
Just like Corbyn asserted he was the next PM. Doesn't make it so.
I agree but he did proclaim it live on BBC
Mind you it seems a divided nation with no agreement on how it moves forward
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
I imagine there may be a few seats where anti-RN voters have voted LR.
The problem now is any Governkment formed will need to include either RN or NFP. I imagine Macron is hoping to cobble together something with NFP and LR but, as a man of the centre-right, would you prefer LR to support a minority RN government?
It might be a position you have to face here in 2029 - would you, as a Conservative, support your party doing a deal with a minority Farage-led Reform Government?
In other European countries, the established centre right party has been dominant over the insurgent populist anti-immigrant party (Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden) but in France the roles are reversed.
I would vote for Le Pen over Melenchon he is that awful if I was French. I would prefer an LR and Ensemble centre to centre right government but it lacks the numbers.
In Italy of course the populist right party of Meloni leads a government with the centre right Forza Italia.
"...if I were French". Didn't they teach you anything at grammar school?
I am part French by heritage so grammatically it was not an unrealistic statement and I was could still be used and I went to public school not grammar school
Well, it's just my subjunctive opinion that you're wrong there; your parents should ask for their money back.
You are wrong, as I am part French by heritage it was not a completely imaginary situation so I was could be used
The left is up about 40 seats on 2022. RN is up 55. The Macronists down about 90. This a very Pyrrhic victory for Macron.
Overall, parties of the Right look set to have a plurality in the Assembly. If indeed, LR hate Macron, and LFI hate Macron, I don’t see where a majority can be found.
Not sure. Macron's own party minority government had run into the sands. He held an election to determine another government he could work with that didn't include Le Pen. His gamble seems to have paid off at least to that extent. Another plus he's stopped the Le Pen momentum after her party's stunning results in the Euro elections.
There is a possibility of new left dominated government he can work with but it could be just as stalemated as his previous Ensemble government.
Overall I suspect between better than neutral to as successful as he could hope to be in the circumstances.
I have now watched all four Beverly Hills Cop films + the unaired TV pilot (you can find it on YouTube). I recommend it as a post-election detox (but leave out film 3).
Utter disaster in the French legislative elections. All Macron's trying to block Le Pen's party winning them has resulted in is instead first place taken by the far left block of Melenchon. While tonight Macron's PM has had to tender his resignation anyway
I imagine there may be a few seats where anti-RN voters have voted LR.
The problem now is any Governkment formed will need to include either RN or NFP. I imagine Macron is hoping to cobble together something with NFP and LR but, as a man of the centre-right, would you prefer LR to support a minority RN government?
It might be a position you have to face here in 2029 - would you, as a Conservative, support your party doing a deal with a minority Farage-led Reform Government?
In other European countries, the established centre right party has been dominant over the insurgent populist anti-immigrant party (Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden) but in France the roles are reversed.
I would vote for Le Pen over Melenchon he is that awful if I was French. I would prefer an LR and Ensemble centre to centre right government but it lacks the numbers.
In Italy of course the populist right party of Meloni leads a government with the centre right Forza Italia.
"...if I were French". Didn't they teach you anything at grammar school?
I am part French by heritage so grammatically it was not an unrealistic statement and I was could still be used and I went to public school not grammar school
Well, it's just my subjunctive opinion that you're wrong there; your parents should ask for their money back.
You are wrong, as I am part French by heritage it was not a completely imaginary situation so I was could be used
I'm descended from some biped in the Rift Valley of East Africa. On your logic I get a vote in Kenya.
I'm calling peak Le Pen tonight. Outwitted by the combined forces of Macron and the left, she won't win the next presidential election. It's the equivalent high point of that Hartlepool by-election win for Boris.
She has had a shot before and missed, no reason to believe 2027 will be any different
I’m sure she’ll find some other specious snowflakery to blame her loss on
That’s the thing with the hard right. Constant grievance; toys permanently out the pram.
Isn't claiming Melenchon is the leader a bit like claiming Corbyn is. I suppose if you vote all of the Lib Dems, Greens, Labour, SNP etc together he COULD lead it but I highly doubt he would.
Melenchon proclaimed it live on BBC
There's more to someone being a leader than them saying it live on telly.
Unless, I suppose, they have an army that has taken over the studios.
Melenchon may think he is the leader, and may well be awfully miffed when the rest of the left alliance don't follow him, but that's about his delusion and nothing else.
My guess is that Melenchon is about as personally popular with majority of NFP deputies (and perhaps those of his own party) as poo on one's shoe.
Don't forget that the hard left component of the NPF is probably just over a third of the total. The more moderate PS, Greens and even the rump of the Communists will have a clear majority of its MPs. That won't make forming a government any easier but whatever emerges will not be extreme dominated.
So many on here don't seem to understand that.
Doesn't that depend on how moderate the 'moderate' leftists are.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
It's RN policy to reverse the pension age too,
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
Indeed.
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
And yet. Their economy seems to troll along like ours. With noticeably better public services. So who's unsafe?
I have now watched all four Beverly Hills Cop films + the unaired TV pilot (you can find it on YouTube). I recommend it as a post-election detox (but leave out film 3).
Under no circumstances can I be watching the 4th in the series if there is not a new Harold Faltermeyer score for it.
The left is up about 40 seats on 2022. RN is up 55. The Macronists down about 90. This a very Pyrrhic victory for Macron.
Overall, parties of the Right look set to have a plurality in the Assembly. If indeed, LR hate Macron, and LFI hate Macron, I don’t see where a majority can be found.
Not sure. Macron's own party minority government had run into the sands. He held an election to determine another government he could work with that didn't include Le Pen. His gamble seems to have paid off at least to that extent. Another plus he's stopped the Le Pen momentum after her party's stunning results in the Euro elections.
There is a possibility of new left dominated government he can work with but it could be just as stalemated as his previous Ensemble government.
Overall I suspect between better than neutral to as successful as he could hope to be in the circumstances.
But now, his support base has shrunk further.
Plus if he forms a government between his party and the hard left NFP it will send the centrist and centre right liberal voters he and his party have won since 2017 rushing back to the centre right Les Republicains who have been out of power in France since 2012
Comments
NFP left-wing coalition (144)
Macron's coalition Ensemble (140)
RN (incl. LR-RN) (135)
This win for those opposed to the FN will not address those concerns, rather they may even try to bury them as if they dont exist. So guess what, those concerns will grow.
This was about six months ago and though we speak quite often I haven't thought about it since. However I've just read that MVP's in with a good chance of taking over. Wouldn't that be fun.....
In Italy of course the populist right party of Meloni leads a government with the centre right Forza Italia.
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1810056422627131439
Lovely.
Take two aspirins and go soak your head. AND try NOT to kick the cat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_French_presidential_election
Apparently.
Surveyed the 65 most Muslim constituencies in the UK (i.e. 10% of the total electorate), per Henry Jackson society.
- Average Labour vote share drop across the 65 constituencies is 16.5%
- That is Labour dropped 1.65% national vote share in these places (and given an overall gain of 1.6% gained 3.25% everywhere else)
- Only gained vote share in 1/65 constituencies: Pendle & Clitheroe
- Con hold in Keighley probably due to this, though didn't prevent Labour gaining seats such as Wycombe, Burnley, Peterborough despite their reduced vote share
- Splitting further by 13 seat groupings average vote share loss was: 1-13 most Muslim, -32.2% (including 3 seats losses); seats 14-26, -18.5% (including Ashworth and Streeting); seats 27-39, -14.1% (including Starmer); seats 40-52, -9.4%; seats 53-65, -8.5%.
"Appears they did Nazi those results coming."
For an academic, he shows a pretty poor grasp of what an 'elite' is. It's not just anybody who doesn't agree with him, as he seems to think.
Last time I mention it. But I did suggest it as a potential Tory hold for these two reasons.
Overall, parties of the Right look set to have a plurality in the Assembly. If indeed, LR hate Macron, and LFI hate Macron, I don’t see where a majority can be found.
This seems very odd, if anything rural areas should finish later as longer travelling distance to polling station.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_M._Jackson
Happen to have his copy (embossed with his name) of "Senate Procedure: Precedents and Practices" (1981) which I obtained years ago, from a used bookstore in Jackson's home town of Everett WA.
And the cities have polls open two hours longer. So they get a head start.
And if the district is made of lots of tiddly little villages, each one can presumably count their tiddly pile of ballots fairly quickly, working in parallel.
(ETA: What @dixiedean said.)
I would tend to trust the French populous to know where its at. Resentment and victim status is a powerful sustaining force for parties such as FN, dont give them it. They now have an excuse about why they lost, which will just be another reason for their support to cosolidate. The way to beat them is take away their arguments.
How many of them want to return the retirement age to 60 and introduce price caps ?
Just fucking say what you mean.
It's the equivalent high point of that Hartlepool by-election win for Boris.
I think you possibly sound a bit funnier in your own head than comes across on the page. But you have correctly identified me as having no sense of humour, so don't pay me no nevermind.
The right will hold 200-210.
They aren't Far Right with every policy. More welfarist but nativist.
See the right on the rise (Vox in Spain, RN in France) and do well in a set of secondary elections. Then put the really stark choice before both the voters and the other political parties. Basically, if you don't want these guys to win real power, stop dicking around.
In broad terms, it seems to have worked.
Was there no members of the Cryer family for Labour to have as a candidate ?
BUT election blocs & parties, are NOT always led by the biggest loudmouth, Boris Johnson and Donald Trump notwithstanding.
HYUFD saying he'd voted actively for Le Pen tells us all you need to know.
Doesn't make it so.
It doesn't make it true.
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/legislatives/infographies-resultats-des-elections-legislatives-2024-decouvrez-en-direct-la-composition-de-l-assemblee-nationale_6645201.html
Unless, I suppose, they have an army that has taken over the studios.
Melenchon may think he is the leader, and may well be awfully miffed when the rest of the left alliance don't follow him, but that's about his delusion and nothing else.
There is a possibility of new left dominated government he can work with but it could be just as stalemated as his previous Ensemble government.
Overall I suspect between better than neutral to as successful as he could hope to be in the circumstances.
Edit LR don't hate Macron, and LFI don't hate Macron, at least at the voter level. I posted this analysis earlier.
https://x.com/mathieugallard/status/1810010894937575572
"I wish I were a little bit taller, I wish I were a baller"
I keep saying that there's a big majority for 'unsafe' economics in France.
Macron 145
RN 140
42 to come.
Mind you it seems a divided nation with no agreement on how it moves forward
*expectant*
https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2024/avril/9753-pdt-ruffin-cluster-17-picardie-debout-21-avril-2024.pdf
That’s the thing with the hard right. Constant grievance; toys permanently out the pram.
Their economy seems to troll along like ours.
With noticeably better public services.
So who's unsafe?