IOW E - Reform thinks it’s close between her, the Tories and the Green. Labour’s candidate not at the count. Result expected 0300
Eh? Survation MRP had that as a 90% Labour chance. All the models forecast it as a Labour win.
Like I explained at length this morning. MRP is a model, not a poll, and there is a stack of issues in the seat, especially with the Labour candidate.
Nevertheless nothing I’ve heard yet sounds that authoritative.
just rumours at present, but pretty much all my Island family were unimpressed by the Lab candidate, and apart from my Tory uncle in Lake leaning Green.
With still very few constituencies having as yet declared, compared with the exit poll, the betting markets have Labour ur 6 seats from 410 to 416, with the Tories down by 7 seats from 131 to 124 . At this rate, are the Tories going to fall to below 120 seats that appears quite possible.
This is a great election. Glass of wine, popcorn. TV on one monitor, PB on another, Pulpstar's spreadsheet on the other.
Enjoy the wine, I'm in the middle of 3 years not drinking.
Looking back, I did have an alcohol problem when I was younger, but these days I only drink now and then. I have learned, I think, to treat alcohol with respect.
Thanks for your updates, BTW, Andy. Your insights are valuable.
Buckland was speaking a lot of sense earlier. Not sure his party will be listening. Much as I don't like the Tories, I do hope they get their shit together and don't get eclipsed by Reform, who really are a bunch of conspiracy theory Putinist shills who do not have the country's best interests at heart.
@IanB2 (and others) something I've often been curious about - am I right in thinking that votes are "mixed up" before counting? So there shouldn't be an effect like a misleading tally from counting e.g. postal votes, or AM votes, or votes from certain bits of the constituency first or whatever?
They can't be mixed up until they've been verified, they need to check that the number of ballot papers in the box matches the number of ballot papers issued. If it's slightly lower that's fine (some people just take their ballot home with them) but can't be higher. It's during the verification stage that you look over and try and count batches of 25, if you can get 4 x 25 from the same box then you should be within a 2% margin of error.
Lord Charlie Falconer, former justice secretary under Tony Blair, tells Radio 4 and 5 Live that the exit polls suggest an "extraordinary achievement" by Keir Starmer - but warns there is less optimism than when Blair won power.
"People have become profoundly unhappy about their politicians. Keir has been steady, and the country is willing to entrust the leadership of the country to Labour. But they do so with much less optimism than they did in 1997," he says.
The number of Reform second places is both disconcerting, but also a big problem for the Conservatives. Unless (and I increasingly thing this will happen) they merge.
Nobody should use the word Brexit tonight - it's irrelevant. Bugger, I just have.
But it rather looks to me as if Reform are severely damaging the Tories in Brexity-type seats, and Labour and/or the Lib Dems are going to slaughter the Tories in Remainy-type seats. So the Tories may well get lower than the exit poll suggests.
Buckland was speaking a lot of sense earlier. Not sure his party will be listening. Much as I don't like the Tories, I do hope they get their shit together and don't get eclipsed by Reform, who really are a bunch of conspiracy theory Putinist shills who do not have the country's best interests at heart.
Farage wants to be the new Britain Trump. He spends a lot of time in the US and thinks he can reshape the British right wing as Trump has captured the Republicans.
Lord Charlie Falconer, former justice secretary under Tony Blair, tells Radio 4 and 5 Live that the exit polls suggest an "extraordinary achievement" by Keir Starmer - but warns there is less optimism than when Blair won power.
"People have become profoundly unhappy about their politicians. Keir has been steady, and the country is willing to entrust the leadership of the country to Labour. But they do so with much less optimism than they did in 1997," he says.
When is he going to resign?
Are you saying you heard that rumour? That Charlie Falconer was going to resign? So did I. Matter of time.
Nobody should use the word Brexit tonight - it's irrelevant. Bugger, I just have.
But it rather looks to me as if Reform are severely damaging the Tories in Brexity-type seats, and Labour and/or the Lib Dems are going to slaughter the Tories in Remainy-type seats. So the Tories may well get lower than the exit poll suggests.
As I recall (roughly) in 1997 CON went in with a notional majority of 34 seats. That disappeared in the first 17 seats declared previously held by CON which were all lost!
Nobody should use the word Brexit tonight - it's irrelevant. Bugger, I just have.
But it rather looks to me as if Reform are severely damaging the Tories in Brexity-type seats, and Labour and/or the Lib Dems are going to slaughter the Tories in Remain-y type seats. So the Tories may well get lower than the exit poll suggests.
Somebody opined on here that traditional poll calculation methods might not work this time around, let's see.
As for Reform, it is hard to say if they've really been Labour voters, or protests, or immigration or what.
Got overexcited by Reform exit poll number and peaked too soon.
Choked on the sediment of that 2001 Chateau Musar?
Musar is usually a very powerful wine.
I gave up drinking alcohol over 5 years ago but used to like a good Musar. I was a bit alarmed that he was claiming to sink a bottle of Amarone beforehand, which can also be powerful. And then spirits.
@IanB2 (and others) something I've often been curious about - am I right in thinking that votes are "mixed up" before counting? So there shouldn't be an effect like a misleading tally from counting e.g. postal votes, or AM votes, or votes from certain bits of the constituency first or whatever?
Yes and no; they’re counted anonymously and the PVs are mixed in, but any given counting table is counting votes from one or two particular boxes - they don’t faff about mixing everything randomly. You have to be eagle eyed at a count to see where a particular box you’re interested in ends up, but it can be done,
If the agents are good, they know the result at verification stage.
@IanB2 (and others) something I've often been curious about - am I right in thinking that votes are "mixed up" before counting? So there shouldn't be an effect like a misleading tally from counting e.g. postal votes, or AM votes, or votes from certain bits of the constituency first or whatever?
They can't be mixed up until they've been verified, they need to check that the number of ballot papers in the box matches the number of ballot papers issued. If it's slightly lower that's fine (some people just take their ballot home with them) but can't be higher. It's during the verification stage that you look over and try and count batches of 25, if you can get 4 x 25 from the same box then you should be within a 2% margin of error.
The number of Reform second places is both disconcerting, but also a big problem for the Conservatives. Unless (and I increasingly thing this will happen) they merge.
Tbh the cons have shown they DGAF about levelling up and the North; they’ve not delivered the promises of Brexit and they even cancelled HS2. Honestly I think Reform are better off not merging.
IOW E - Reform thinks it’s close between her, the Tories and the Green. Labour’s candidate not at the count. Result expected 0300
Andy reckoned the Green would win it. Yet another locale where they are overperforming in a two-seats-or-more kinda way
The only reason was because I kept hearing a lot from the Green candidate in various political media, despite the fact I live about 300 miles away and didn't have any particular reason to hear news from the Isle of Wight, so I thought she must be making an unusual impact on the political scene.
I'm enjoying C4. The interviews with reporters at different counts is feeling quite Eurovision. Good evening London, and here are the results from the Portsmouth jury...
I'm enjoying C4. The interviews with reporters at different counts is feeling quite Eurovision. Good evening London, and here are the results from the Portsmouth jury...
The number of Reform second places is both disconcerting, but also a big problem for the Conservatives. Unless (and I increasingly thing this will happen) they merge.
Tbh the cons have shown they DGAF about levelling up and the North; they’ve not delivered the promises of Brexit and they even cancelled HS2. Honestly I think Reform are better off not merging.
One wonders how bad 2019 might have been if Reform hadn't stood down. I do wonder if these voters will be permanently lost to both parties.
Nobody should use the word Brexit tonight - it's irrelevant. Bugger, I just have.
But it rather looks to me as if Reform are severely damaging the Tories in Brexity-type seats, and Labour and/or the Lib Dems are going to slaughter the Tories in Remain-y type seats. So the Tories may well get lower than the exit poll suggests.
Isn't this the inevitable result of the whole Brexit thing and the unrealistic promises that were made? The Faustian pact. Tories are facing the consequences - Remainers' anger at Brexit, Leavers' anger that Brexit hasn't delivered what was promised. Nobody is talking about Brexit but it is absolutely there in the background to this election.
I'm enjoying C4. The interviews with reporters at different counts is feeling quite Eurovision. Good evening London, and here are the results from the Portsmouth jury...
Tonight is Eurovision for ugly people.
Rory Stewart is a beautiful man and I will fight you
Daisy Cooper is preferable in the gummy centrist stakes.
Nobody should use the word Brexit tonight - it's irrelevant. Bugger, I just have.
But it rather looks to me as if Reform are severely damaging the Tories in Brexity-type seats, and Labour and/or the Lib Dems are going to slaughter the Tories in Remain-y type seats. So the Tories may well get lower than the exit poll suggests.
Isn't this the inevitable result of the whole Brexit thing and the unrealistic promises that were made? The Faustian pact. Tories are facing the consequences - Remainers' anger at Brexit, Leavers' anger that Brexit hasn't delivered what was promised. Nobody is talking about Brexit but it is absolutely there in the background to this election.
With still very few constituencies having as yet declared, compared with the exit poll, the betting markets have Labour ur 6 seats from 410 to 416, with the Tories down by 7 seats from 131 to 124 . At this rate, are the Tories going to fall to below 120 seats that appears quite possible.
I'm enjoying C4. The interviews with reporters at different counts is feeling quite Eurovision. Good evening London, and here are the results from the Portsmouth jury...
Tonight is Eurovision for ugly people.
Rory Stewart is a beautiful man and I will fight you
With still very few constituencies having as yet declared, compared with the exit poll, the betting markets have Labour ur 6 seats from 410 to 416, with the Tories down by 7 seats from 131 to 124 . At this rate, are the Tories going to fall to below 120 seats that appears quite possible.
Something to discuss in a day or two ( @rcs1000@TheScreamingEagles ?) is interesting pheomena of how the spreads were more accurate about seats than the fixed odds...
Comments
Maybe the postal vote ID checks slowing them down?
LD 23,976
Con 15,738
Ref 5,679
Lab 4,153
Grn 1,762
Ind 620
Ind 136
Would be the largest Labour majority in history, I think, if repeated?
Reform on 5,600, Labour on 4,100
A massive win
Thanks for your updates, BTW, Andy. Your insights are valuable.
I now project LAB will beat their 1997 result of 418 seats and am forecasting LAB 425
My CON projection now 115
ind 620 1%
con 15738 30%
ind 136 0%
green 1762 3%
reform 5679 11%
lab 4153 8%
"People have become profoundly unhappy about their politicians. Keir has been steady, and the country is willing to entrust the leadership of the country to Labour. But they do so with much less optimism than they did in 1997," he says.
When is he going to resign?
The MRPs looking better and better.
Bugger, I just have.
But it rather looks to me as if Reform are severely damaging the Tories in Brexity-type seats, and Labour and/or the Lib Dems are going to slaughter the Tories in Remainy-type seats. So the Tories may well get lower than the exit poll suggests.
It's why simple solutions are no solutions.
He is not going down the Corbyn route, being very chummy with Burnham
Labour 5,122 / 41.1% / -3.0
Reform UK 8,469 / 23.0% / +8.3
Green 5,433 / 14.8% / +11.7
Conservative 4,128 / 11.2% / -14.6
Independent 2,270 / 6.2% / +6.2
Liberal Democrat 1,402 / 3.8% / +0.3
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001492
As for Reform, it is hard to say if they've really been Labour voters, or protests, or immigration or what.
I gave up drinking alcohol over 5 years ago but used to like a good Musar. I was a bit alarmed that he was claiming to sink a bottle of Amarone beforehand, which can also be powerful. And then spirits.
We go live to Nicola Sturgeon.
https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2102
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/12273/chronicle-of-a-bet-foretold-thin-gruel-politicalbetting-com
Outgoing Scottish party leader says it is "extremely tight"
Fair to say there are elements of the MSP group keen for him to win so he doesn't come back to Holyrood...
https://x.com/KieranPAndrews/status/1809022040961171705
Warming to my thesis that this is the Great Disillusionment Election of 2024.
Con -20.8%
Lab +1.5%
LD +2.2%
Ref +15.5%
Grn +1.9%
The actual changes are:
Con -19.8%
Lab +0.5%
LD +1.0%
Ref +13.4%
Grn +4.1%
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/results
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1919202/glasgow-general-election-count-chaos
Cos I’m in bed. Sleep nowhere in sight though.
Richard Holden.
Agree with others - pattern of results so far does suggest that the Tory seat number will be lower than the exit poll.