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The first key result sees a 16.5% Con to Lab swing. – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,158
edited July 5 in General
The first key result sees a 16.5% Con to Lab swing. – politicalbetting.com

Swindon South:? LAB: 48.4% (+8.2)? CON: 26.9% (-24.7)?? RFM: 13.8% (New)? GRN: 5.7% (+5.2)? LDM: 4.1% (-3.6)? IND: 1.1% (New)Labour GAIN from Conservative.

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Comments

  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,645
    Survation bang on so far. But they had the Tories getting 60 seats.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    Are the TV channels struggling to get people who are relevant on. John McDonnell and now Sayeeda Warsi.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Where are our declarations? My last hit is running low.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,172
    rcs1000 said:

    First.

    (Sorry some other people!)

    Disgraceful behaviour!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,632
    It’s the get the Tories out election.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    edited July 4
    I would like to apologize to @EScrymgeour, @CatMan, @tlg86 and others.

    No reason.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,157
    Labour's majority in Swindon South is bigger than 3 out of the 4 NE seats announced so far !!!
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,651
    It's a terrrrrible night for the Lib Dems on these swings. Or maybe not.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    We've only had 5 declarations and they've missed 2 of them.
  • EScrymgeourEScrymgeour Posts: 141
    What time does Gurning Gullis get turfed?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    If Ross is close to losing in Moray, the Scottish part of the exit poll needs flushing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    That’s a by-election swing!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Survation bang on so far. But they had the Tories getting 60 seats.

    MRP is erratic, they should have stuck to UNS
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    First.

    (Sorry some other people!)

    Disgraceful behaviour!
    I have no idea what you are talking about.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,645
    Labour will get 420 or more seats IMHO.

    Any bets on beating Tony's landslide in 1997?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,157
    HYUFD said:

    Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour

    What were you expecting from the expected vote shares ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Jonathan said:

    It’s the get the Tories out election.

    Brexit Payback Day!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Dadge said:

    If Ross is close to losing in Moray, the Scottish part of the exit poll needs flushing.

    It immediately looked wrong.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    Andy_JS said:

    We've only had 5 declarations and they've missed 2 of them.

    'They' being?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,077
    SNP Massacre in Glasgow.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,408
    It will be fascinating to see how accurate the exit poll is this time round.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    Police investigate potential electoral fraud in Glasgow

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/04/police-investigate-potential-electoral-fraud-glasgow/
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,968
    HYUFD said:

    Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour

    Notice in all the seats declared so far, Labour won.

    Run after the Reform vote and you'll deserve to lose your current voters and current seats to get what Reform have instead.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    If the Tories do lurch rightwards they can look forward to getting plenty more second places.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,274
    Andy_JS said:

    We've only had 5 declarations and they've missed 2 of them.

    Yes it’s pathetic .
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,408
    Benpointer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We've only had 5 declarations and they've missed 2 of them.

    'They' being?
    BBC
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    It will be fascinating to see how accurate the exit poll is this time round.

    Pretty good so far
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Sadiq Khan is a total asslicker.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,157
    Monksfield said:

    Dadge said:

    If Ross is close to losing in Moray, the Scottish part of the exit poll needs flushing.

    It immediately looked wrong.
    Might not be wrong for Lab facing SNP though
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    I struggle to understand why Warsi is in the Tory party.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Cicero said:

    SNP Massacre in Glasgow.

    They're going to get absolutely pumped, don't piss off your own voters and activists, basic stuff.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    Incredible punditry so far on all 3 channels. Essentially this election result shows the country is in a seething ferment of fashy extremism and Tories need to go far right to survive.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Cicero said:

    SNP Massacre in Glasgow.

    But how are they doing in the elections?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,678
    Oh Lordy. Baroness Warsi.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Benpointer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We've only had 5 declarations and they've missed 2 of them.

    'They' being?
    Most of the channels, BBC had the speeches but not the result itself.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    HYUFD said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Survation bang on so far. But they had the Tories getting 60 seats.

    MRP is erratic, they should have stuck to UNS
    That wouldn’t work either, with swings of this size.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,240
    Dadge said:

    If Ross is close to losing in Moray, the Scottish part of the exit poll needs flushing.

    In fairness Ross could do relatively worse than other SCONs due to the ousting of Duguid.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Labour saying Dundee Central is very close - Might 10 be generous and SNP actually be the main beneficiaries of panel over engagement?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,839
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Are the TV channels struggling to get people who are relevant on. John McDonnell and now Sayeeda Warsi.

    In olden times there were two outlets on election night: BBC and ITN. Now it is close to two dozen. Guests are spread around more, but also there is probably a limited pool of Conservative ex-ministers willing to be humiliated or Labour frontbenchers willing to risk the wrath of Keir Starmer if they go even a smidge beyond the agreed line.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    IanB2 said:

    Buckland laying into his nutter colleagues

    Sounding quite sensible - where has he been hiding?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    HYUFD said:

    Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour

    Notice in all the seats declared so far, Labour won.

    Run after the Reform vote and you'll deserve to lose your current voters and current seats to get what Reform have instead.
    More 2019 Tory voters have defected to Reform than Labour, that is just what the results show. Yes it needs both regained to win but the former are bigger so far
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Monksfield said:

    I struggle to understand why Warsi is in the Tory party.

    Wait.

    She's still in the Tory party?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,632
    Now Dorries is off ch4 is watchable.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,077
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Cicero said:

    SNP Massacre in Glasgow.

    They're going to get absolutely pumped, don't piss off your own voters and activists, basic stuff.
    If SNP is reamed across the country, leaves the North East in a very interesting situation. @RochdalePioneers any news?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Please let the prediction that Mogg loses be true
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Robert Buckland pulling no punches.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Struggling to work out how the Tories might have lost Broxbourne. Maybe it's because of a big Reform vote without Labour coming through the middle.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,977
    Monksfield said:

    I struggle to understand why Warsi is in the Tory party.

    She shares Conservative values and policy. That puts her in the same party as Cameron.

    It is less clear why she would still be in the party of BoZo and Truss
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,645
    Robert Buckland understands how to win young voters back. So they will presumably ignore him.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,280
    Early AVG:
    Lab +4.3
    Con -20.8
    Ref +15.5
    LD -1.1
    Grn +3.1
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Buckland is on fire. Tories currently "just a desiccated management machine"!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,274
    Those currently voting Tory aren’t going to break out the champagne if there’s a merger with Reform who are party which has zero solutions to the countries problems and is full of candidates that should be nowhere near UK politics.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    It will be fascinating to see how accurate the exit poll is this time round.

    i remember watching in 1997. It was a long time to wait for a Con hold
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    Break in the count, I see Swindon is expected but still rough.

    A terrible night but could still have been worse!
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,651
    Andy_JS said:

    Struggling to work out how the Tories might have lost Broxbourne. Maybe it's because of a big Reform vote without Labour coming through the middle.

    Broxbourne used to have a BNP presence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Monksfield said:

    I struggle to understand why Warsi is in the Tory party.

    She is too pro Palestine for Starmer Labour?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,977
    Chameleon said:

    Labour saying Dundee Central is very close - Might 10 be generous and SNP actually be the main beneficiaries of panel over engagement?

    @alexmassie

    The significance of this is not Dundee so much as it is every other seat in Fife and the central belt. Because *if* *Dundee Central* is close the Nats are probably cooked everywhere else.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    edited July 4
    edit
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,632
    Buckland for leader.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Benpointer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Buckland laying into his nutter colleagues

    Sounding quite sensible - where has he been hiding?
    Very eloquently explaining why the Tories have lost.

    No doubt they’ll decide it’s actually because of willies and fannies and homeless lifestyle choice.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,408
    HYUFD said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    HYUFD said:

    Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour

    Notice in all the seats declared so far, Labour won.

    Run after the Reform vote and you'll deserve to lose your current voters and current seats to get what Reform have instead.
    More 2019 Tory voters have defected to Reform than Labour, that is just what the results show. Yes it needs both regained to win but the former are bigger so far
    But if you chase Reform votes, you lose votes to Lab/LD. The proportion of post-truth nutters in the UK is probably only about 25%, and you're not going to win elections with that.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Robert Buckland understands how to win young voters back. So they will presumably ignore him.

    Has he talked about building a million homes a year by the end of the parliament? If not he's as clueless as the rest of the useless wets.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,280
    nico679 said:

    Those currently voting Tory aren’t going to break out the champagne if there’s a merger with Reform who are party which has zero solutions to the countries problems and is full of candidates that should be nowhere near UK politics.

    Frankly, it would be a continuation of the Conservative 19-24 solution free politics
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,809
    Chameleon said:

    Labour saying Dundee Central is very close - Might 10 be generous and SNP actually be the main beneficiaries of panel over engagement?

    Oh I do hope so
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited July 4
    Newcastle C & W

    Reform in second with 7,800 to Labour’s 18,800
  • MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 2,252
    edited July 4
    FPT

    HYUFD Posts: 118,661
    12:30AM
    MisterBedfordshire said:
    Farage has just done to the Tories what Paisley did to the UUP in 1979.

    The UUP were still the largest Unionist party in 1979 as the Tories are now


    1979 was when they went from 1 to 3 with a similar drop in UUP ending the UUPs dominance of the "right"
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,759
    Scott_xP said:

    Chameleon said:

    Labour saying Dundee Central is very close - Might 10 be generous and SNP actually be the main beneficiaries of panel over engagement?

    @alexmassie

    The significance of this is not Dundee so much as it is every other seat in Fife and the central belt. Because *if* *Dundee Central* is close the Nats are probably cooked everywhere else.
    Yes Dundee is a relative stronghold for the SNP, certainly compared to Fife and the Central belt seats.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    edited July 4
    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. Definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited July 4
    Newcastle Central

    Labour 18,875
    Reform 7,815
    Cons 4228
    Ind 3627
    Greens 3228
    LDs 1946

    Swing 12% Labour to Reform
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,574
    Farooq said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    Oh Lordy. Baroness Warsi.

    What's she saying?
    The fact that she was overlooked when the vacancy came up for the position of Queen shows the deep problems that still afflict the country.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,361
    54% turnout in Newcastle central.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Lab source: thinks Ref won't get as many as 13 seats.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Green vote is holding up well.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,172
    Once again, reports of turnout being huge during the day were misplaced.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. I definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%

    A lot of votes for Yvonne Ridley. Didnt she used to be a Gallowayite?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Labour doon in the Toon. Hamas factor?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    Taz said:

    54% turnout in Newcastle central.

    Well voting certainly wasn't brisk there.....
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited July 4
    BBC banging the "low turnout" drum when I thought it was pretty typical of these Northeast seats to have lower than national average turnouts? Swindon was over 60%+.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,660
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. Definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%

    Gaza effect?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,035
    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    HYUFD said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    HYUFD said:

    Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour

    Notice in all the seats declared so far, Labour won.

    Run after the Reform vote and you'll deserve to lose your current voters and current seats to get what Reform have instead.
    More 2019 Tory voters have defected to Reform than Labour, that is just what the results show. Yes it needs both regained to win but the former are bigger so far
    But if you chase Reform votes, you lose votes to Lab/LD. The proportion of post-truth nutters in the UK is probably only about 25%, and you're not going to win elections with that.
    I don’t think the residual Tory Party is a the position of losing votes to anyone. This is rock bottom.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. Definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%

    Big vote for the indy there.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    I'm feeling very good about my turnout bet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Andy_JS said:

    edit

    And 20.5% Con to Reform
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,977
    @thetimes

    Rishi Sunak will announce his resignation as Conservative Party leader on Friday morning, the political commentator Tim Shipman has said

    Shipman added that the party will then have to decide whether to launch a leadership contest straight away or draw it out to announce a new leader at the party conference in October
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,361
    KentRising said:

    Buckland is on fire. Tories currently "just a desiccated management machine"!

    Bald men fighting over a comb.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. Definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%

    Eh? She got 21,000 last time
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,809
    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Rishi Sunak will announce his resignation as Conservative Party leader on Friday morning, the political commentator Tim Shipman has said

    Shipman added that the party will then have to decide whether to launch a leadership contest straight away or draw it out to announce a new leader at the party conference in October

    Well duh.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    edited July 4
    Popcorn, Champers and Mrs Foxy all gone. Onto the Brandy and cheese.

    Mrs Foxy on an early start tommorow
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,148
    biggles said:

    FeersumEnjineeya said:

    HYUFD said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    HYUFD said:

    Notice in all the seats declared so far the swing from Tories to Reform/BXP as was is bigger than the swing to Labour

    Notice in all the seats declared so far, Labour won.

    Run after the Reform vote and you'll deserve to lose your current voters and current seats to get what Reform have instead.
    More 2019 Tory voters have defected to Reform than Labour, that is just what the results show. Yes it needs both regained to win but the former are bigger so far
    But if you chase Reform votes, you lose votes to Lab/LD. The proportion of post-truth nutters in the UK is probably only about 25%, and you're not going to win elections with that.
    I don’t think the residual Tory Party is a the position of losing votes to anyone. This is rock bottom.
    Just you wait.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    Swingometer!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Flatlander said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. Definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%

    Gaza effect?
    Probably, and maybe also students at home
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. Definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%

    Eh? She got 21,000 last time
    Gaza
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,645
    Scott_xP said:

    @thetimes

    Rishi Sunak will announce his resignation as Conservative Party leader on Friday morning, the political commentator Tim Shipman has said

    Shipman added that the party will then have to decide whether to launch a leadership contest straight away or draw it out to announce a new leader at the party conference in October

    The most unsuccessful candidate for PM in history (to run in an election)?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,280
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour's vote down 10,000 in Newcastle Central. Definitely wasn't expecting that.

    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2368

    Lab -13.6%
    Ref +10.7%
    Con -16.3%
    Ind +8.8%
    Oth +6.5%

    Gone Ind and Green? That, I'm guessing, might still be a younger demographic as much as the 15.5% Muslim vote.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,261
    Very strange election.

    A Labour landslide but also feels like they are also being put on notice by Reform... If they screw up in the the next five years?
This discussion has been closed.