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The first key result sees a 16.5% Con to Lab swing. – politicalbetting.com

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,160
    Whats the Rayleigh result ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    noneoftheabove said:

    Cons 100-149 drifting....1.3 to 1.6 in last 5 mins

    All #10 insiders getting their big bets on?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,578
    Sandpit said:

    Thank fuck for that!

    Richard Holden.

    Nominative determinism strikes again.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,408
    edited July 5
    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Benpointer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Shields

    Labour 5,122 / 41.1% / -3.0
    Reform UK 8,469 / 23.0% / +8.3
    Green 5,433 / 14.8% / +11.7
    Conservative 4,128 / 11.2% / -14.6
    Independent 2,270 / 6.2% / +6.2
    Liberal Democrat 1,402 / 3.8% / +0.3

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001492

    Labour 15,122!
    Huge Green vote there.

    Warming to my thesis that this is the Great Disillusionment Election of 2024.
    Labour will be delighted with losing vast numbers of votes in safe seats.
    Like Reform.

    Edit: Who so far seem to have a habit of coming second to Labour.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Basildon recount?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,808
    noneoftheabove said:

    Cons 100-149 drifting....1.3 to 1.6 in last 5 mins

    Con Finishing position 2nd still some 1.03 which seems ok to lay if they are 30%+ to get under 100 seats.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,568
    Wings reckons there's a small but real chance the SNP could be fourth in Scotland.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    Why are these counts taking SO long?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,173
    Pulpstar said:

    Whats the Rayleigh result ?

    https://x.com/tencor_7144/status/1809024744227819784
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,037
    Andy_JS said:

    After these particular 10 results I was expecting the following changes:

    Con -20.8%
    Lab +1.5%
    LD +2.2%
    Ref +15.5%
    Grn +1.9%

    The actual changes are:

    Con -19.8%
    Lab +0.5%
    LD +1.0%
    Ref +13.4%
    Grn +4.1%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/results

    Interesting. Still limited data I guess, but another amazing effort.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    EScrymgeour said:

    TUV hurting DUP in NI according to G Beebies NI correspondent

    SF vote also down though
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,366
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Foxy said:

    John McDonnell in fine form on Sky.

    He is not going down the Corbyn route, being very chummy with Burnham

    It is why he is far more dangerous than Corbyn despite holding similar if not worse views.
    Don't be silly. A backbench MP from West London is hardly 'dangerous'.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,977
    @paulhutcheon

    NEW: A sizeable Reform vote is causing Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross problems in Aberdeenshire North and Moray Wast
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Benpointer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Shields

    Labour 5,122 / 41.1% / -3.0
    Reform UK 8,469 / 23.0% / +8.3
    Green 5,433 / 14.8% / +11.7
    Conservative 4,128 / 11.2% / -14.6
    Independent 2,270 / 6.2% / +6.2
    Liberal Democrat 1,402 / 3.8% / +0.3

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001492

    Labour 15,122!
    Huge Green vote there.

    Warming to my thesis that this is the Great Disillusionment Election of 2024.
    Labour will be delighted with losing vast numbers of votes in safe seats.
    Wes Streeting was very interesting before any results came in saying they piled all resources into Conservative seats, not their own ones.

    If that’s true they have played this very smartly.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Benpointer said:

    Why are these counts taking SO long?

    Poor productivity
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,960
    edited July 5
    Northern_Al said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Foxy said:

    John McDonnell in fine form on Sky.

    He is not going down the Corbyn route, being very chummy with Burnham

    It is why he is far more dangerous than Corbyn despite holding similar if not worse views.
    Don't be silly. A backbench MP from West London is hardly 'dangerous'.
    No, when he had some power. He is far more dangerous than Corbyn was, because for all Corbyn's faults he tells you straight what he believes.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,678
    The Reform guy on ITV sounds exactly like Nigel Farage. Weird and interesting in equal measure.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Is Katie Razzall high?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,059
    rcs1000 said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Nobody should use the word Brexit tonight - it's irrelevant.
    Bugger, I just have.

    But it rather looks to me as if Reform are severely damaging the Tories in Brexity-type seats, and Labour and/or the Lib Dems are going to slaughter the Tories in Remainy-type seats. So the Tories may well get lower than the exit poll suggests.

    Quite.

    It's why simple solutions are no solutions.
    Yes, but if the overcomplicated centrist solutions do not work, people will do simplistic populist ones. Sorry, I'm ranty again. It's 1:44am my time
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    Labour up a decent amount in Rayleigh & Wickford, 9%.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Rayleigh & Wickford

    Con 17,756 (37.0% / -35.9%)
    Ref 12,135 (25.3% / +25.3%)
    Lab 11,823 (24.6% / +8.9%)
    LD 4,068 (8.5% / +0.8%)
    Grn 2,196 (4.6% / +0.9%)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001437
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Sounds like the Greens could be on for Bristol C
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    Heathener said:

    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Benpointer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    South Shields

    Labour 5,122 / 41.1% / -3.0
    Reform UK 8,469 / 23.0% / +8.3
    Green 5,433 / 14.8% / +11.7
    Conservative 4,128 / 11.2% / -14.6
    Independent 2,270 / 6.2% / +6.2
    Liberal Democrat 1,402 / 3.8% / +0.3

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001492

    Labour 15,122!
    Huge Green vote there.

    Warming to my thesis that this is the Great Disillusionment Election of 2024.
    Labour will be delighted with losing vast numbers of votes in safe seats.
    Wes Streeting was very interesting before any results came in saying they piled all resources into Conservative seats, not their own ones.

    If that’s true they have played this very smartly.
    That's Morgan McSweeney.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,578
    Stark_Dawning said:

    The Reform guy on ITV sounds exactly like Nigel Farage. Weird and interesting in equal measure.

    Isn't that Robert Peston?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,977
    @jessicaelgot

    Early signs that Penny Mordaunt def in trouble in her Portsmouth North seat, source says
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,687
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Are the Tories really getting 25% based on these results?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,808
    Pulpstar said:

    Whats the Rayleigh result ?

    https://election.news.sky.com/elections/general-election-2024/rayleigh-and-wickford-473

    Con 37
    REF 25.3
    Lab 24.6
    LD 8.5
    Gr 4.6
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    BBC suggests Bristol Central will go Green
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    BBC: full recount in Basildon.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Full recount in BASILDON
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,720
    Scott_xP said:

    Farooq said:

    KentRising said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm enjoying C4. The interviews with reporters at different counts is feeling quite Eurovision.
    Good evening London, and here are the results from the Portsmouth jury...

    Tonight is Eurovision for ugly people.
    Rory Stewart is a beautiful man and I will fight you
    “Tell Jabba I’ve got his money”


    He looks increasingly like the love child of Mick Jagger and Edwina Currie.

    Doesn't mean he's not beautiful, Farooq! :kissing_heart:
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    I am getting more confident that the shares of the vote are going to be as a result of tactical voting.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited July 5
    rottenborough said:

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    3m
    Are the Tories really getting 25% based on these results?

    Depends on tactical voting surely - I could see the Tories losing whole swathes of seats by not much. Also we've had what, 1 Tory safe seat?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601
    Andy_JS said:

    Rayleigh & Wickford

    Con 17,756 (37.0% / -35.9%)
    Ref 12,135 (25.3% / +25.3%)
    Lab 11,823 (24.6% / +8.9%)
    LD 4,068 (8.5% / +0.8%)
    Grn 2,196 (4.6% / +0.9%)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001437

    I wouldn't read too much into that seat simply because of the problems with Mark Francois, no smoke without any fire.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,638
    Stark_Dawning said:

    The Reform guy on ITV sounds exactly like Nigel Farage. Weird and interesting in equal measure.

    I noticed that too. A bit like the way Sturgeon moves her head in the same way that Salmond does.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    Selebian said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Farooq said:

    KentRising said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm enjoying C4. The interviews with reporters at different counts is feeling quite Eurovision.
    Good evening London, and here are the results from the Portsmouth jury...

    Tonight is Eurovision for ugly people.
    Rory Stewart is a beautiful man and I will fight you
    “Tell Jabba I’ve got his money”


    He looks increasingly like the love child of Mick Jagger and Edwina Currie.

    Doesn't mean he's not beautiful, Farooq! :kissing_heart:
    If I were gay, I would love to have sex with him
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,408
    Benpointer said:

    Why are these counts taking SO long?

    Something to do with labels and Brexit :wink:
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Andy_JS said:

    Rayleigh & Wickford

    Con 17,756 (37.0% / -35.9%)
    Ref 12,135 (25.3% / +25.3%)
    Lab 11,823 (24.6% / +8.9%)
    LD 4,068 (8.5% / +0.8%)
    Grn 2,196 (4.6% / +0.9%)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001437

    Survation MRP off on this one
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,808
    edited July 5
    Lab GAIN Nuneaton from Con. Ref in 3rd.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Stroud -> Lab gain

    Lab 25,630
    Con 14,219
    Ref 6,329
    Grn 5,729
    LD 2,913
    Ind 261
    Volt 163

    Swing 12.4% from Con to Lab

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001529
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,575
    edited July 5
    Bellwether Nuneaton goes Con>Lab

    Turnout 58.7% though, is that the real story of tonight?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,651
    Nuneaton goes Labour. That's it for me. Happy to call it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Nuneaton goes red according to ITV
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,846
    Benpointer said:

    Why are these counts taking SO long?

    Some counts won't have started yet.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Someone put a seat ticker up please!
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    I called Wimbledon right. Still think East Hants will be very close.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    When did Francois get let back in to the Tories?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Hideous result for CON in Nuneaton
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651
    Andy_JS said:

    After these particular 10 results I was expecting the following changes:

    Con -20.8%
    Lab +1.5%
    LD +2.2%
    Ref +15.5%
    Grn +1.9%

    The actual changes are:

    Con -19.8%
    Lab +0.5%
    LD +1.0%
    Ref +13.4%
    Grn +4.1%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/results

    Well done Andy. What did your forecast lead to in seat counts?
  • SkiddertonSkidderton Posts: 15
    Why are the BBC so slow to get the results up for constituencies that have declared? Laura talking about "we'll get the full details to you soon", are they using a telex machine?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    londonpubman said:

    Hideous result for CON in Nuneaton

    Better than most MRPs
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,977
    Paging Sandpit

    @Samfr

    Mark Francois the first Tory to officially win in Rayleigh and Wickford.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Stroud swing more in line with 130 odd Tory seats, we need some London seats etc to get a full picture here
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,720
    Eabhal said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The Reform guy on ITV sounds exactly like Nigel Farage. Weird and interesting in equal measure.

    I noticed that too. A bit like the way Sturgeon moves her head in the same way that Salmond does.
    As long as the new cabinet don't start ducking their heads like pigeons every time they're attempting emphasis/sincerity like Starmer, we'll be ok
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,408
    Andy_JS said:

    Rayleigh & Wickford

    Con 17,756 (37.0% / -35.9%)
    Ref 12,135 (25.3% / +25.3%)
    Lab 11,823 (24.6% / +8.9%)
    LD 4,068 (8.5% / +0.8%)
    Grn 2,196 (4.6% / +0.9%)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001437

    8th safest Tory seat
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,077
    Penny Mordaunt looking behind
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,059
    Selebian said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Farooq said:

    KentRising said:

    Farooq said:

    I'm enjoying C4. The interviews with reporters at different counts is feeling quite Eurovision.
    Good evening London, and here are the results from the Portsmouth jury...

    Tonight is Eurovision for ugly people.
    Rory Stewart is a beautiful man and I will fight you
    “Tell Jabba I’ve got his money”


    He looks increasingly like the love child of Mick Jagger and Edwina Currie.

    Doesn't mean he's not beautiful, Farooq! :kissing_heart:
    I think you'll find that, rather unfairly, it is external apperance that matters, and he looks like a papier-mache scarecrow with sixty teeth.

    To misquote David Cronenberg: we don't hold beauty contests for livers :)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    edited July 5
    Benpointer said:

    Andy_JS said:

    After these particular 10 results I was expecting the following changes:

    Con -20.8%
    Lab +1.5%
    LD +2.2%
    Ref +15.5%
    Grn +1.9%

    The actual changes are:

    Con -19.8%
    Lab +0.5%
    LD +1.0%
    Ref +13.4%
    Grn +4.1%

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/results

    Well done Andy. What did your forecast lead to in seat counts?
    Lab 407, Con 127, LD 70, SNP 18, Grn 3, Ref 3.

    I almost posted those numbers at 6:45 yesterday morning but held off. Wish I had now.

    You can see those numbers at the bottom of this spreadsheet.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iFyVLRnJG_7HD1BrN6BQMzU_n2Vl-BjJEIz5H3qq6XA/edit?gid=0#gid=0
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,704
    Con wipeout in Nuneaton - down 32% - from 60% to 28%.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,408
    Scott_xP said:

    Paging Sandpit

    @Samfr

    Mark Francois the first Tory to officially win in Rayleigh and Wickford.

    Here's hoping Leon's tenner is the biggest loss of the night.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    londonpubman said:

    Hideous result for CON in Nuneaton

    And the LDs weren’t squeezed there, either
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    IanB2 said:

    When did Francois get let back in to the Tories?

    Was he out? You’re not thinking of Rosindell (charges dropped)?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited July 5
    Darlington, Lab gain 16,600 to Tory 14,300, Reform 6,800
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Darlington close!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,160
    Sheet 2 is off the ground !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited July 5
    Darlington

    Labour 16,621
    Cons 14,323
    Ref 6852
    Green 2847
    LD 1735

    Labour gain from Tories. Labour up just 0.3% though, Tories down 16%, Reform up 13%
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,808
    Lab GAIN Darlington
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,806
    Darlo relatively close - was this your constituency Barty?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    IanB2 said:

    Darlington, Lab gain 16,600 to Tory 14,300, Reform 6,800

    Reform have under-performed there, Tories held up?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,720
    edited July 5
    wooliedyed said:

    Darlington close!

    Mornington Crescent?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,077
    Hunt going south
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    wooliedyed said:

    Darlington close!

    Labour share is static
  • Nunu5Nunu5 Posts: 964
    Basildon and Billericay is having a full recount! Suggest Richard Holden has a very close battle to 'hold' his new seat after fleeing to Essex from the North East.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    8% swing Darlington
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,756
    Loving the spreadsheets Andy. So far it`s mirroring the results amazingly well.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited July 5
    Ghedebrav said:

    IanB2 said:

    When did Francois get let back in to the Tories?

    Was he out? You’re not thinking of Rosindell (charges dropped)?
    No, although similar to Rosindell - Police investigation that did not result in charges. While ago, though.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    IanB2 said:

    Darlington, Lab gain 16,600 to Tory 14,300, Reform 6,800

    Reform have under-performed there, Tories held up?
    Marginal seats, more riding on it, not a free hit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    edited July 5
    Jarrow

    Lab 18856, Ref 9892, Con 3354, Grn 2384, LD 1740, ADF 502
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001307

    2019 figures (notional): Lab 19917, Con 9600, Brexit 3843, Ind 2662, LD 2649, Grn 1009, Ind 614, SDP 212
    https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/2291
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,687
    Skidderton said:

    Why are the BBC so slow to get the results up for constituencies that have declared? Laura talking about "we'll get the full details to you soon", are they using a telex machine?

    always the way.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Bishop Auckland could be very very close based on the Darlington result.......
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    edited July 5
    Lab gain Stroud, 25,600 to 14,200, 71% turnout
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    SMukesh said:

    Loving the spreadsheets Andy. So far it`s mirroring the results amazingly well.

    Can we share the links again?
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,456
    Monksfield said:

    There’s definitely a Labour ladies look of bobs and bangs

    Moonrabbit did some really good commentary on this - she called them "the Labour fringes".

    It's an interesting lens through which to view the current crop of top Labour politicians, as so many of them arrived in parliament at the same time (which goes some way towards explaining why they have such similar 2010-ish haircuts)

    Partly its a result of the bottlenecking in the front bench-worthy Labour intake during the Corbyn years. The 2024 intake is going to make the party look very different, and it's worth wondering how soon the newcomers will find their way into ministerial positions.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    LAB did win Darlington and Nuneaton in 1992 when CON got an overall majority.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,659
    I just want to make it through the night without hearing Streeting. Fucker keeps popping up looking like a greased estate agent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Labour gain Nuneaton
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,601

    NEW THREAD

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    Labour hold Jarrow
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 3,647
    Jeremy Vine said Labour are doing well enough in each seat to win with wildly different swings, suggests their targeting operation has been very advanced indeed.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,348
    Really notable how the Labour vote is hardly shifting.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,808
    HYUFD said:

    Darlington

    Labour 16,621
    Cons 14,323
    Ref 6852
    Green 2847
    LD 1735

    Labour gain from Tories. Labour up just 0.3% though, Tories down 16%, Reform up 13%

    Extraordinary if Labour do win their landslide having gained just a few %-age points in national vote share!
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    IanB2 said:

    Darlington, Lab gain 16,600 to Tory 14,300, Reform 6,800

    Reform have under-performed there, Tories held up?
    Local-ish lad, the Tory; maybe a reasonable personal vote?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    Nuneaton -> Lab gain

    Lab 15216
    Con 11737
    Ref 9059
    Grn 2894
    LD 1340
    WPB 967
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,408
    Oooh, Stroud.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,808

    New Thread

This discussion has been closed.